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Artykuły w czasopismach na temat "Mid-troposphere Cyclones"
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Esmaili, Rebekah, Christopher Barnet, Jason Dunion, Michael Folmer i Jonathan Zawislak. "Evaluating Satellite Sounders for Monitoring the Tropical Cyclone Environment in Operational Forecasting". Remote Sensing 14, nr 13 (2.07.2022): 3189. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/rs14133189.
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Tropical cyclones can form over open ocean where in situ observations are limited, so forecasters rely on satellite observations to monitor their development and track. We explore the utility of an operational satellite sounding product for tropical forecasting by characterizing the products retrieval skill during research flights. Scientists from both the NOAA-Unique Combined Atmospheric Processing System (NUCAPS) research team and tropical cyclone communities collaborated to target relevant tropical cyclones during the campaign. This effort produced 130 dropsondes that are well-timed with satellite sounder overpasses over three different tropical cyclones and one Saharan Air Layer outbreak. For the combined infrared and microwave retrieval, the NUCAPS temperature has a root mean square error (RMSE) of 1.2 K near the surface (1000–600 mb) and 0.8 K in the mid-troposphere (600–300 mb), which is in line with global product requirements. The water vapor mixing ratio RMSE was 26% near the surface and 46% in the mid-troposphere. NUCAPS microwave-only retrievals can also be useful for cloudy scenes, with surface RMSE values of 4 K (temperature) and 23% (water vapor). Using information content analysis, we estimated that the vertical resolution near the surface was 1.7 km for the temperature retrievals and 2.2 km for the water vapor retrievals in this study. We discuss the feasibility of implementing NUCAPS in an operational forecasting setting, which requires rapid data delivery to forecaster software tools.
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Croad, Hannah L., John Methven, Ben Harvey, Sarah P. E. Keeley i Ambrogio Volonté. "The role of boundary layer processes in summer-time Arctic cyclones". Weather and Climate Dynamics 4, nr 3 (18.07.2023): 617–38. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-617-2023.
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Abstract. Arctic cyclones are the most energetic weather systems in the Arctic, producing strong winds and precipitation that present major weather hazards. In summer, when the sea ice cover is reduced and more mobile, Arctic cyclones can have large impacts on ocean waves and sea ice. While the development of mid-latitude cyclones is known to be dependent on boundary layer (BL) turbulent fluxes, the dynamics of summer-time Arctic cyclones and their dependence on surface exchange processes have not been investigated. The purpose of this study is to characterise the BL processes acting in summer-time Arctic cyclones and understand their influence on cyclone evolution. The study focuses on two cyclone case studies, each characterised by a different structure during growth in the Arctic: (A) low-level-dominant vorticity (warm-core) structure and (B) upper-level-dominant vorticity (cold-core) structure, linked with a tropopause polar vortex. A potential vorticity (PV) framework is used to diagnose the BL processes in model runs from the ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System model. Both cyclones are associated with frictional Ekman pumping and downward sensible heat fluxes over sea ice. However, a third process, the frictional baroclinic generation of PV, acts differently in A and B due to differences in their low-level temperature structures. Positive PV is generated in Cyclone A near the bent-back warm front, like in typical mid-latitude cyclones. However, the same process produces negative PV tendencies in B, shown to be a consequence of the vertically aligned axisymmetric cold-core structure. This frictional process also acts to cool the lower troposphere, reducing the warm-core anomaly in A and amplifying the cold-core anomaly in B. Both cyclones attain a vertically aligned cold-core structure that persists for several days after maximum intensity, which is consistent with cooling from frictional Ekman pumping, frictional baroclinic PV generation, and downward sensible heat fluxes. This may help to explain the longevity of isolated cold-core Arctic cyclones with columnar vorticity structure.
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DAS, G. K., S. K. MIDYA, G. C. DEBNATH i S. N. ROY. "The relationship between geopotential height and movement & landfall of tropical cyclone in the Bay of Bengal region". MAUSAM 63, nr 3 (1.01.2022): 469–74. http://dx.doi.org/10.54302/mausam.v63i3.1214.
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In this paper a simple relationship is employed to investigate relative impacts on the movement and landfall of tropical cyclone in the Bay of Bengal region when geopotential height of different troposphere levels is used as an input. Five tropical cyclone during pre-monsoon and post-monsoon season over the Bay of Bengal region has been selected for the study. The RS/RW data of coastal stations namely Kolkata (Dumdum), Dhaka, Agartala, Bhubaneswar, Visakhapatnam, Machlipatnam, Chennai and Karaikal has been collected for the period of the cyclones under study. The geopotential height of different standard levels has been plotted against the time for the stations for every cyclone. The study suggests that the cyclone moves towards and cross near the station having relatively steeper decrease in geopotential height upto mid tropical level followed by increased in geopotential height.
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Zhang, Shuqin, Yuan Tang, Liwen Zhang, Qinghua Liao i Tianyu Zhang. "Variations in Key Factors at Different Explosive Development Stages of an Extreme Explosive Cyclone over the Japan Sea". Atmosphere 14, nr 9 (23.08.2023): 1327. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/atmos14091327.
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Explosive cyclones (ECs) occur frequently over the Japan Sea. The most rapidly intensifying EC over the Japan Sea during the 44-year period 1979–2022, in the cold season (October–April), was examined to reveal the variations in the key factors at different explosive development stages. The EC deepened at a maximum deepening rate of 3.07 bergerons and explosive development lasted for 15 h. At the initial moment of explosive development, the EC had distinctive low-level baroclinicity, the low-level water vapor convergence was weak, and mid-level cyclonic vorticity advection was far away from the EC’s center. At the moment at which the EC reached the maximum deepening rate, the low-level water vapor convergence and mid-level cyclonic vorticity advection increased distinctly and approached the EC’s center. A diagnostic analysis using the Zwack–Okossi equation showed that the main contributor to the initial explosive development was warm-air advection. Through the evolutionary process of the explosive development, the non-key factors of the cyclonic vorticity advection and diabatic heating at the initial explosive development stage increased quickly and became key factors contributing to the maximum explosive development. The key factors contributing to the explosive development varied with the stage of explosive development. The cross-section and vertical profile of each term suggested that the cyclonic vorticity advection was enhanced in the upper troposphere and diabatic heating increased in the middle troposphere.
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Nicholls, M. E., i M. T. Montgomery. "An examination of two pathway to tropical cyclogenesis occurring in idealized simulations with a cloud-resolving numerical model". Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions 13, nr 1 (9.01.2013): 765–825. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acpd-13-765-2013.
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Abstract. Simulations are conducted with a cloud-resolving numerical model to examine the transformation of a weak incipient mid-level cyclonic vortex into a tropical cyclone. Results demonstrate that two distinct pathways are possible and that development along a particular pathway is sensitive to model physics and initial conditions. One pathway involves a steady increase of the surface winds to tropical cyclone strength as the radius of maximum winds gradually decreases. A notable feature of this evolution is the creation of small-scale lower tropospheric cyclonic vorticity anomalies by deep convective towers and subsequent merger and convergence by the low-level secondary circulation. The second pathway also begins with a strengthening low-level circulation, but eventually a significantly stronger mid-level circulation develops. Cyclogenesis occurs subsequently when a small-scale surface concentrated vortex forms abruptly near the center of the larger-scale circulation. The small-scale vortex is warm core throughout the troposphere and results in a local surface pressure fall of a few millibars. It usually develops rapidly, undergoing a modest growth to form a small tropical cyclone. Many of the simulated systems approach or reach tropical cyclone strength prior to development of a prominent mid-level vortex so that the subsequent formation of a strong small-scale surface concentrated vortex in these cases could be considered intensification rather than genesis. Experiments are performed to investigate the dependence on the inclusion of the ice phase, radiation, the size and strength of the incipient mid-level vortex, the amount of moisture present in the initial vortex, and the sea surface temperature. Notably, as the sea surface temperature is raised, the likelihood of development along the second pathway is increased. This appears to be related to an increased production of ice. The sensitivity of the pathway taken to model physics and initial conditions revealed by these experiments raise the possibility that the solution to this initial value problem is near a bifurcation point. Future improvements to model parameterizations and more accurate observations of the transformation of disturbances to tropical cyclones should clarify the conditions that favor a particular pathway when starting from a mid-level vortex.
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Nicholls, M. E., i M. T. Montgomery. "An examination of two pathways to tropical cyclogenesis occurring in idealized simulations with a cloud-resolving numerical model". Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 13, nr 12 (21.06.2013): 5999–6022. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-5999-2013.
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Abstract. Simulations are conducted with a cloud-resolving numerical model to examine the transformation of a weak incipient mid-level cyclonic vortex into a tropical cyclone. Results demonstrate that two distinct pathways are possible and that development along a particular pathway is sensitive to model physics and initial conditions. One pathway involves a steady increase of the surface winds to tropical cyclone strength as the radius of maximum winds gradually decreases. A notable feature of this evolution is the creation of small-scale lower tropospheric cyclonic vorticity anomalies by deep convective towers and subsequent merger and convergence by the low-level secondary circulation. The second pathway also begins with a strengthening low-level circulation, but eventually a significantly stronger mid-level circulation develops. Cyclogenesis occurs subsequently when a small-scale surface concentrated vortex forms abruptly near the center of the larger-scale circulation. The small-scale vortex is warm core throughout the troposphere and results in a fall in local surface pressure of a few millibars. It usually develops rapidly, undergoing a modest growth to form a small tropical cyclone. Many of the simulated systems approach or reach tropical cyclone strength prior to development of a prominent mid-level vortex so that the subsequent formation of a strong small-scale surface concentrated vortex in these cases could be considered intensification rather than genesis. Experiments are performed to investigate the dependence on the inclusion of the ice phase, radiation, the size and strength of the incipient mid-level vortex, the amount of moisture present in the initial vortex, and the sea surface temperature. Notably, as the sea surface temperature is raised, the likelihood of development along the second pathway is increased. This appears to be related to an increased production of ice. The sensitivity of the pathway taken to model physics and initial conditions revealed by these experiments raise the possibility that the solution to this initial value problem is near a bifurcation point. Future improvements to model parameterizations and more accurate observations of the transformation of disturbances to tropical cyclones should clarify the conditions that favor a particular pathway when starting from a mid-level vortex.
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Evstigneev, Vladislav P., Valentina A. Naumova, Dmitriy Y. Voronin, Pavel N. Kuznetsov i Svetlana P. Korsakova. "Severe Precipitation Phenomena in Crimea in Relation to Atmospheric Circulation". Atmosphere 13, nr 10 (18.10.2022): 1712. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/atmos13101712.
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The increase in the frequency and intensity of hazardous hydrometeorological phenomena is one of the most dangerous consequences of climate instability. In this study, we summarize the data on severe weather phenomena using the data from 23 meteorological stations in Crimea from 1976 to 2020. Particular attention was paid to the precipitation phenomena descriptions. For the last 45 years, a significant positive trend of interannual variability of the annual occurrence of severe weather phenomena was estimated to be +2.7 cases per decade. The trend for severe precipitation phenomena was estimated to be +1.3 cases per decade. The probable maximum annual daily precipitation as a quantitative indicator of hazardous events was estimated for each station by using both the stationary and the non-stationary GEV models. For at least half of the meteorological stations, a non-stationary GEV model was more appropriate for the estimation of the precipitation extremes. An analysis of the main synoptic processes that drive severe weather phenomena of precipitation was carried out. The greatest contribution to the formation of severe precipitation was made by Mediterranean–Black Sea cyclones. At the same time, half of all of the cases of extreme precipitation were caused by cyclones generated over the Black Sea only, in all seasons apart from winter. In the mid-troposphere, four types of meridional circulation were identified depending on the location of troughs and ridges, with respect to the Black Sea region. More than 42% of severe precipitation phenomena were accompanied by an isolated high-altitude cyclone in the mid-troposphere over the Black Sea region. The main recommendation that can be drawn from this study is that long-term climatic non-stationarity should be taken into account whenever the risk assessment or hazard analysis is to be carried out. The results can also favor the designing of drainage and sewerage systems in urban areas. The findings of atmospheric patterns can be used for the improvement of extreme precipitation forecasts.
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Yang, Y. Q., Q. Hou, C. H. Zhou, H. L. Liu, Y. Q. Wang i T. Niu. "Sand/dust storms over Northeast Asia and associated large-scale circulations in spring 2006". Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions 7, nr 3 (29.06.2007): 9259–81. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acpd-7-9259-2007.
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Abstract. This paper presents a study on the meteorological conditions that accompany the sand/dust storms (SDS) of East Asia in spring 2006, based on the SDS data collected both by WMO during 2000–2006 and by 2456 Chinese surface stations, and on the meteorological reanalysis data from NCEP-NCAR . The evolution of 3-D structures of the general circulations prevailed in both winter and spring as well as their annual anomalies were investigated by comparing the years having most and least occurrences of SDS between 2000 and 2006. It is found that spring 2006 featured a noticeably increased occurrence of SDS, compared with previous years. The general circulations prevailed through both winter and spring, especially the 3-D structure of the polar circulation, show the significant anomalies compared to a normal year. This produced a range of corresponding weather phenomena, including circumpolar vortices at the upper troposphere, mid-level westerly jets, and lower zonal winds, which all favored the SDS production and transport in 2006. The study also reveals a fact that comparing with a normal year, the transitional period from the winter of 2005 to the spring of 2006 has witnessed a fast-developed high center at the upper troposphere of the northern hemisphere and the circumpolar vortex area, which pushes the area dominated by the circumpolar vortices further to mid-latitudes. The circumpolar vortices shifted southwards, and prevailed over an extensive area across the northeast hemisphere for a sustained period. The mid-high latitude areas that sit in the south of the circumpolar vortices in Asia have experienced significantly abnormal westerly jets at the mid-level of troposphere. Zonal winds prevailed at the mid and lower levels of troposphere. Sea level pressure registered an abnormal high at 4–10 hPa, compared with a normal year. The above-mentioned 3-D structures of general circulation have created thermal and dynamic conditions that favor the repeated genesis and momentous development of the Mongolian cyclones, which in turn contributes to the frequent occurrences and long distance transport of SDS.
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Xu, Li, i Zi-Liang Li. "Impacts of the Wave Train along the Asian Jet on the South China Sea Summer Monsoon Onset". Atmosphere 12, nr 9 (18.09.2021): 1227. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/atmos12091227.
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The South China Sea (SCS) summer monsoon (SCSSM) onset signifies the commencement of large-scale summer monsoon over East Asia and the western North Pacific (WNP). Previous studies on the influencing factors of the SCSSM onset mainly focus on the tropical systems, such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). This study reveals that the wave train along the Asian jet could act as an extratropical factor to modulate the SCSSM onset, and it is largely independent of ENSO. The SCSSM onset tends to be earlier during the positive phase of the wave train (featured by northerly anomalies over Central Iran plateau and eastern China, southerly anomalies over Arabian Peninsula, eastern Indian subcontinent, and eastern Bonin islands). The wave train affects the SCSSM onset mainly via modulating the WNP subtropical high. The wave train during the positive phase can induce negative geopotential height anomalies in the mid-troposphere and anomalous cyclones in the lower-troposphere over the SCS and the Philippine Sea, leading to the weakening of the WNP subtropical high. Specifically, the anomalous ascending motions associated with the low-level cyclone are favorable for the increased rainfall over the SCS, and the anomalous westerly on the south of the anomalous cyclone is conducive to the transition of the zonal wind (from easterly to westerly). The above circulation anomalies associated with the positive phase of the wave train provide a favorable environment for the advanced SCSSM onset.
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Lu, Ren, i Xiaodong Tang. "Relationship between Early-Stage Features and Lifetime Maximum Intensity of Tropical Cyclones over the Western North Pacific". Atmosphere 12, nr 7 (24.06.2021): 815. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/atmos12070815.
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The relationship between early-stage features and lifetime maximum intensity (LMI) of tropical cyclones (TCs) over the Western North Pacific (WNP) was investigated by ensemble machine learning methods and composite analysis in this study. By selecting key features of TCs’ vortex attributes and environmental conditions, a two-step AdaBoost model demonstrated accuracy of about 75% in distinguishing weak and strong TCs at genesis and a coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.30 for LMI estimation from the early stage of strong TCs, suggesting an underlying relationship between LMI and early-stage features. The composite analysis reveals that TCs with higher LMI are characterized by lower latitude embedded in a continuous band of high low-troposphere vorticity, more compact circulation at both the upper and lower levels of the troposphere, stronger circulation at the mid-troposphere, a higher outflow layer with stronger convection, a more symmetrical structure of high-level moisture distribution, a slower translation speed, and a greater intensification rate around genesis. Specifically, TCs with greater “tightness” at genesis may have a better chance of strengthening to major TCs (LMI ≥ 96 kt), since it represents a combination of the inner and outer-core wind structure related to TCs’ rapid intensification and eyewall replacement cycle.
Streszczenia konferencji na temat "Mid-troposphere Cyclones"
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Melfi, S. H., David Whiteman, Richard Ferrare i Francis Schmidlin. "Comparison of Lidar and Radiosonde Measurements of Atmospheric Moisture Profiles". W Optical Remote Sensing of the Atmosphere. Washington, D.C.: Optica Publishing Group, 1990. http://dx.doi.org/10.1364/orsa.1990.tuc2.
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Atmospheric water vapor represents, arguably, the most important source of heat driving atmospheric circulation. In the tropics, it is responsible for the strong convection associated with the intertropical convergence zone thus establishing the Hadley circulation and the persistent trade winds. At mid-latitudes, moisture variation with altitude can destabilize the troposphere, setting up the potential for deep convection with boundary layer moisture fueling the resultant cyclone development and intensification. Moisture also plays an important role in global warming. Its anticipated increase as a result of the doubling of carbon dioxide is expected to produce a positive feedback leading to more than 50% of the temperature increase anticipated over the next 50 years. The impact of clouds on global warming is still being studied. In addition, radio waves can be adversely affected by sharp moisture gradients in the atmosphere leading to anomalous propagation.