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Jadoui, Mohammed. "Taux d'interet et taux de change valorisation d'options". Evry-Val d'Essonne, 1998. http://www.theses.fr/1998EVRY0016.
Pełny tekst źródłaPreumont, Pierre-Yves. "La dynamique des taux de change". Doctoral thesis, Universite Libre de Bruxelles, 2001. http://hdl.handle.net/2013/ULB-DIPOT:oai:dipot.ulb.ac.be:2013/211603.
Pełny tekst źródłaZarrad, Olfa. "Le taux de change de l'euro". Grenoble 2, 2007. http://www.theses.fr/2007GRE21038.
Pełny tekst źródłaFor the countries of the euro zone, does the unicity of the nominal exchange rates compared with other currencies go with a differentiation of their effects ? If so, how can we analyse this differentiation ? Is it able to cause divergences affecting the soutenability of this area ? This work is organized as follows: a first part devoted to the study of the euro exchange rate in an aggregate point of view, and a second one devoted to the analysis of the differentiated effects of the euro exchange rate on national economies. Our outcome of the first part reveals no relationship of cointegration between the euro -dollar and the "fundamentals" This result allows us to assume that these economies are not exposed to a problem of aggregation. It is then necessary to make a comparative analysis of the effects of these exchange rates on the national economies. Although the members of the euro zone are sharing the same nominal variables, their sensibility to a same exchange rate depends on their opening degree and the composition of their trade. There is thus a divergence of the real effective exchange rates. But in another side, these variations of the real effective exchange rate compensate the inflation gaps within the euro zone. For that, we make an original use of the indicators of monetary conditions (IMC) to compare the situation of several members of the euro zone. The real effective exchange rates have a compensatory effect. Under the present conditions, we think that these differences are not dangerous for the soutenability of the euro zone
Lahrèche-Révil, Amina. "Taux de change réel et développement". Paris 1, 1998. http://www.theses.fr/1998PA010008.
Pełny tekst źródłaThe real exchange rate is analysed as a catalyst of economic development. The notion of real exchange rate is exposed in the preamble. Equilibrium long term real exchange rates are studied in the first chapter, and their usefulness and relevance in the second chapter. Chapter 3 examines the balassa-samuleson effect, using detailed price data; it is shown that the prices of tradable goods rise with economic development, and that the currencies of developing coutrnies are more and more undervalued vis-a-vis those of industriblised countries, due to the pegging of these currencies to the us dollar. The second part offers an explanation to this pegging behavior, suggesting that the real exchange rate is a determinant of growth. After presenting the different (internal and external) engines of growth (chapter 4), a model of endogenous growth including an underdevelopment trap is proposed, where the real exchange rate can foster growth (chapter 5). In chapter 6, an empirical test of the model is successfully performed|
Aflouk, Nabil. "Régimes de change, taux de change d'équilibre et croissance économique". Paris 13, 2012. http://www.theses.fr/2012PA131016.
Pełny tekst źródłaBaulant, Camille. "Taux de change réels, niveaux d'industrialisation et normes de change". Paris 10, 1989. http://www.theses.fr/1989PA100047.
Pełny tekst źródłaThe economic crisis of the last twenty years displays large fluctuations of exchange rates. Analyzing real exchange rates (nominal exchange rates divided by inflation rates) is a requirement to understand misalignements. First, a theory of real exchange rate must be elaborated and linked to well known foundations in international economics. However, the purchasing power parity is inadequate to explain real exchange rates changes in the long run. The Ricardian theory of international trade is more relevant. To apply this theory, i develop two models of real exchange-rate determination and compute several indicators of real exchange rate : gnp, value added in manufacturing. I run regressions on both models. The first one is estimaded with overall data and yields the following results : in the long run, the real exchange rate is rising with the relative level of development ; in the short run, the real exchange rate is a decreasing function of the country's growth rate. The second one is estimated with industrial data. The real exchange rate still depends upon overall growth differential but also on structural variables in the manufacturing sector : an index of industry specialization and the share of wages in value added
Malka, Bruno. "Choix et défense d'un taux de change". Paris 9, 1986. https://portail.bu.dauphine.fr/fileviewer/index.php?doc=1986PA090058.
Pełny tekst źródłaMorvillier, Florian. "Taux de change d’équilibre et déséquilibres macroéconomiques". Thesis, Paris 10, 2020. http://www.theses.fr/2020PA100030.
Pełny tekst źródłaThis thesis aims to study the dynamics and determinants of the exchange rate, paying particular attention to the link between internal and external imbalances. The first chapter examines the effect of the euro adoption on the vulnerability of the current account to demand and exchange rate misalignments shocks. Our results show that, with the adoption of the single currency, the vulnerability of the current account to demand shocks and exchange rate misalignments increases considerably. The second chapter of the thesis provides an in-depth analysis of the robustness of the Balassa Samuelson (BS) effect for a panel of 38 developing and emerging economies over the period 1980-2016. We examine the internal and external versions of the BS hypothesis based on five different measures. We show that the internal version of the BS effect is validated only if the labour productivity differential between tradable and non-tradable sectors is used. We also find a robust effect of the relative price of non-traded to traded goods on the real effective exchange rate (REER). The third chapter studies the non-linear effects of infrastructure on the REER by estimating a Panel Smooth Transition Regression (PSTR) model, aiming to highlight a differentiated impact of infrastructure on the REER depending on the value taken by a transition variable. We consider three different transition variables: the telecommunications stock per 1000 workers, the Electricity Generating Capacity (EGC) per 1000 workers and the quality of the electricity network. When the network is not completed or the infrastructure stock is low, an increase in EGC and telecommunications stock depreciates the REER, while the additional depreciation is lower or non-existent once the network is established. The results obtained are discussed in the light of several transmission channels
Ghadban, Socrat. "Le taux de change et la demande touristique". Phd thesis, Université Toulouse le Mirail - Toulouse II, 2013. http://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00937271.
Pełny tekst źródłaLarrain, Ríos Guillermo. "Taux de change réel, politique budgétaire et industrialisation". Paris, EHESS, 2004. http://www.theses.fr/2004EHES0120.
Pełny tekst źródłaThis thesies studies the properties of the non interventionist approach to development and the role of budget policies. Chile is a good case study. We broaden the industrialisation model by Murphy et al (1989) by opening the economy. Firms can finance the investment needed to change technology thanks to a real depreciation followed by an appreciation. This approach has limits. We consider the determinants of the real exchange rate beyond bydgetary policies. We focus hence on the role of public services and public investment. Industrialisation may appear in this non interventionist approach. Budget policy must be contractive initially, but expansionary afterwards. The obstacles to this approach suggest that industrialisation may be delayed relative to a well designed microeconomic policy
Omrani, Walid. "Dynamique des taux de change et mémoire longue". Paris 10, 2005. http://www.theses.fr/2005PA100034.
Pełny tekst źródłaThe objective of this thesis is double. The first objective is modelling the complex dynamics that governs daily returns of exchange rates of the G7 as well as their conditional volatilities. We will try to propose an econometric model able to take account of a long memory component simultaneously in the conditional mean and a second component long memory in the equation of the conditional volatility. The second objective of this thesis is to show the superiority of the approach based on long memory processes in relation to the linear approach, vis-a-vis of the survey of the efficiency theory to the weak sense. It is also about putting in evidence the importance of the modelling of the conditional variance and his/her/its contribution to this theory. The second objective of this thesis is to show the superiority of the approach based on processes to long memory in relation to the linear approach, vis-a-vis of the survey of the efficiency theory. Also, we show the importance of the modelling of the conditional variance and its contribution to this theory
Mouradian, Florence. "Exposition au taux de change et stratégies d'entreprises". Thesis, Paris Sciences et Lettres (ComUE), 2017. http://www.theses.fr/2017PSLED006/document.
Pełny tekst źródłaThis thesis follows a dual objective. First, it aims to summarize previous evidence on the magnitude and channels underpinning a non-financial firm’s operating exposure, i.e. the extent to which currency fluctuations can alter a company's future operating cash flow, and to provide new highlights on the heterogeneity of this exposure across firms. Second, this thesis investigates the product and production strategies that are appropriate for coping with the economic consequences of exchange rate changes on firms’ operating profits. Since the range of these strategies is large, it focuses on providing theoretical and empirical evidence for the strategy of up-market positioning
Vanelle, Valérie. "Stabilisation des taux de change et commerce européen". Bordeaux 4, 1999. http://www.theses.fr/1999BOR40017.
Pełny tekst źródłaSince the collapse ofbretton woods system, the impact of exchange rate volatility on international trade flows has been widely researched. However, few studies analysed whether exchange rate stabilization, achieved through the exchange rate mechanism of the ems, led to an increase in european trade (as it is often argued). The debate became topical again with the ems crisis in the early 1990s. In this study, we attempt not only to evaluate precisely the impact of exchange rate volatility on trade but we also examine whether stabilization is a better alternative. In the first part, we show that it is important to distinguish between short term and long term volatility. A survey of the empirical and theoretical literature leads us to conclude that there is a negative and statistically significant link between exchange rate volatility and trade, even though it is rather weak. The important problem of the measure of exchange rate volatility is examined. An econometric analysis, which focuses on european countries and long term volatility, is also conducted. In the second part, factors, susceptible of reducing this negative relation, are identified (the concept of pricing to market, the use of forward markets, the diversification of activities). Not only do they explain the weakness of the empirical relation but they also cast doubt on the utility itself of exchange rate stabilization. Finally, we examine the cost of stabilization for ems member countries. Internally, it could be expressed as a transfer of volatility to other countries' macroeconomic variables, detrimental impact on growth or as a specific exchange risk in this type of system. Externally, the positive impact on trade between ems members might generate a negative impact on trade between ems countries and the rest of the world which is ruled by floating exchange rates. A brief study of the impact of emu on Euro/Dollar volatility is also conducted
Sopraseuth, Thepthida. "Dynamique du taux de change et fluctuations internationale". Paris 1, 2000. http://www.theses.fr/2000PA010054.
Pełny tekst źródłaAgbe, Akate. "Taux de change et souveraineté économique : le taux de change comme instrument de politique économique dans les pays satellites des zones monétaires". Dijon, 1989. http://www.theses.fr/1989DIJOE001.
Pełny tekst źródłaThis thesis is a critical analysis of the theories and methods of the exchange rate fixing and its use as an instrument of economic policy in satellite countries of monetary areas. It also analyses to what extent existing monetary areas are involved in trade. In the present monetary system, countries are neither free to fix their exchange rates nor to control their own currencies. Maintaining the independance and sovereignty of countries is an indispensable condition for any reform of the international monetary system in the present international environment. The use of a national currency in the world is the main defect of international means of payment. National currency can garantee valid means of payment between countries. Current monetary areas (franc area, sterling area) can only lead to the economic development of underdeveloped countries when they are reformed. The sole solution to end with the disorder in the present system of international means of payment is the creation of a real supranational currency which could be the only efficient international means of payment. The same principle can be applied for a group of countries such as the group of the west african monetary union with the creation of a monetary area which would quarantee their collective autonomy and would preserve their sovereignty. .
Ben, Youssef Emma. "De la détermination des taux de change : un examen empirique de la partie du franc français contre le deutschemark". Paris 1, 1994. http://www.theses.fr/1994PA010001.
Pełny tekst źródłaOur main purpose was to examine the exchange rate determination, with a particular attention to the french franc deutschmark rate. After a review ot the different approaches to the exchange rate determination, we used the vector autoregressive methodology for the conduct of our empirical analysis of the frf dm parity, over the 1971-1989 period, on the basis of monthly data. Our result was that the monetary interpretation of the exchange rate determination prevails in the explanation of the frf dm behaviour in between 1971 and 1989
Doan, Thi Hong Thinh. "Taux de chang réel et démographie". Thesis, Aix-Marseille, 2012. http://www.theses.fr/2012AIXM1086.
Pełny tekst źródłaThe aim of this thesis is to characterise the behaviour of the real exchange rate, when it is confronted by shocks to the supply and demand of fundamentals. It disregards monetary phenomena, in order to focus on totally real factors.Chapters I and II of this thesis highlight the relationship between productivity and real exchange rate. The main results are as follows: productivity growth does not systematically produce real appreciation, contrary to the BS prediction. Household savings behaviour, population growth rate difference, and the ratio of qualified to unqualified workers in the economy affect the real exchange rate / productivity relationship. These first two chapters provide a response to the current literature concerning, in certain cases, the invalidity of the Balassa-Samuelson theory.Chapter III describes in considerable detail, both theoretically and empirically, the relationship between the real exchange rate and demographics. The theoretical framework makes it possible to detect the impact of demographics on the real exchange rate. The econometric tests confirm that a long-term relationship exists between demographics and the real exchange rate.Finally, the three chapters I, II and III reveal two significant determinants of the real exchange rate: demographics and productivity.Chapter IV studies the causality existing between three variables: the real exchange rate, productivity, and demographics. The results show that there is indeed a strong degree of causality between these variables, with a long-term return towards real exchange rate and productivity
Jeong, Se-Eun. "Régime de change et taux de change d'équilibre des pays d'Asie de l'Est". Paris 13, 2003. http://www.theses.fr/2003PA131006.
Pełny tekst źródłaThis thesis treats the choice of exchange rate regimes of East Asian countries in the era of free movement of international capital. We recommend intermediate exchange regimes, relatively little volatile and stable around equilibrium exchange rates, and regional cooperative solution. We estimate equilibrium exchange rates for currencies of Japan, China and South Korea over 1980-2000 by using a multinational model describing external trade of these countries with the United States, Euroland and the rest of the world. For another East Asian countries (Taiwan, Thailand, Indonesia, Philippines, Malaysia) a simplified model is used for each of them and articulated with results of multinational model. The Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rates developed by Williamson was adopted as theoretical frame of reference. The overvaluation of yen and undervaluation of yuan after 1997-98 Asian financial crises are remarkable results of our simulations
Felix, Jean Michel. "Modèles empiriques de prévision du taux de change canadien". Thesis, Université Laval, 2011. http://www.theses.ulaval.ca/2011/28325/28325.pdf.
Pełny tekst źródłaDuval, Romain. "Déterminants de long terme des taux de change réels". Paris 1, 2001. http://www.theses.fr/2001PA010019.
Pełny tekst źródłaPantoja, Marina. "Taux de change et commerce : étude de droit international". Thesis, Paris 10, 2019. http://www.theses.fr/2019PA100154.
Pełny tekst źródłaThe relation between currency and trade, and the impact that the exchange rate can have on International Trade Law enables heated arguments. The Havana Charter calls for the non-use of the devaluation of the exchange rate as commercial weapon. GATT has, among its articles, those addressing issues regarding exchange rates. However, this topic raises controversies, especially concerning the applicability of the WTO agreements as a commercial remedy against currencies’ anticompetitive devaluation. On the other hand, the IMF, an institution created under the Bretton Woods Agreement, is the competent body to deal with international financial issues and its article IV rules on its duty to monitor its Member States exchange rate policies, in order to avoid obtaining anti-competitive advantages among their means of trade. The two organizations working jointly in an orderly manner to accomplish their objectives of an overall world economic growth and it is from this perception that harmonization between WTO’s legal guidance and IMF’s directives must be implemented. And as such, the prime goal for global governance for the benefit of all shall become a reality
Mestrot, Jean-Paul. "Déficits publics - taux d'intérêt - taux de change : un essai de dépassement de la controverse des années 80". Paris 1, 1999. http://www.theses.fr/1999PA010023.
Pełny tekst źródłaThe purpose of this thesis is to establish whether the financial integration can stop the internal, crowdingout effect and, so, whether the autonomy of the budget policy can be increased in the seven major countries. The theorical conclusions are well known but they lead to numerous empirical controversies. So, we attempt to determine if the international financial integration replaces the rise of the interest rates by an appreciation of the domestic currency. Besides, to study the interest of the financial integration for the public policy, we must estimate the new transmission channels of the public deficit impact created by the capital flows. We show that the relationship between budget deficit and interest rates can't be broken by the external financing because of two mechanisms. First, the monetary policy targets are threatened by the budget expansion. So, the central bank is forced to rise the short term interest rates. In addition, the innovations on the public deficits cause a financial volatility which produces a risk premium. The interest of the financial integration for the budget policy autonomy is limited by two supplementary channels. First, budget policy has a current account target which acts as a constraint on the budget deficit movements. Second, the domestic currency appreciation seems to cause a decrease in consumption and, in some countries, a decline of the investment rate
Roumégous, Emmanuelle. "Régimes de change et détermination du taux de change dans les pays en développement". Clermont-Ferrand 1, 2003. http://www.theses.fr/2003CLF10001.
Pełny tekst źródłaGharbi, Hanen. "Les taux de change gérés : fondements théoriques et bilan empirique". Paris 9, 2011. https://portail.bu.dauphine.fr/fileviewer/index.php?doc=2011PA090072.
Pełny tekst źródłaMicu, Marian. "Le contenu informationnel des options sur les taux de change". Paris 1, 2005. http://www.theses.fr/2005PA010006.
Pełny tekst źródłaRey-Valette, Hélène. "Essai sur les monnaies internationales et les taux de change". Paris, EHESS, 1998. http://www.theses.fr/1998EHES0105.
Pełny tekst źródłaThe thesis consists of four essays dealing with the geography of currencies and the impact of currency internationalisation and currency substitution on the real economy. It introduces a new way of modelling currencies: the framework used is intermediate between the walrasian world and the completely decentralised environment of search models. The first chapter links real trade flows and patterns of currency use on foreign exchange markets in a general equilibrium framework. It is shown that the magnitude and symmetry of trade links determine which of the world currencies becomes a vehicle. The long-lasting international role of sterling as vehicle currency is explained, as well as its displacement by the dollar after the second world war. The second chapter focuses on the links between medium of exchange and store of value. It shows how, in an inflationary environment, the dollarisation of an economy occurs, as domestic financial markets become shallower. This in turn drives up the currency's velocity of circulation and the price level. In such an economy, seigniorage and velocity are hysteretic. The third chapter assesses the potential of the euro to become a competitor for the dollar as an international currency. Several scenarios are considered, and rough magnitudes of the seigniorage and efficiency gains that would accrue to the euro area are estimated. The fourth chapter studies the effect of macroeconomic instability (in particular inflationary environments) on the performance of firms in some transition economies. We have transplanted the same businesses, described by their balance sheets, into different macroeconomic environments. Our results show a big disparity in cash flows depending in particular on the input-output structures of the companies considered
Bénassy-Quéré, Agnès. "Détermination des taux de change dans un modèle macroéconomique multinational". Paris 9, 1992. https://portail.bu.dauphine.fr/fileviewer/index.php?doc=1992PA090012.
Pełny tekst źródłaWe study interactions between exchange rates and the real economy. The aim is to understand how, in a multicounty model, the behavior of economies is affected by exchange rate adjustment. There is little evidence for exchange rate theories. However, tests themselves are questionable. Expectations play a central part in exchange rate models. The semi-rational assumption seems to be the most suited to a large macroeconomic model, for reasons of consistency, computation and stability. Opinion models are more realistic, but hardly consistent and often destabilizing. The properties of a financially-integrated model rely also on the design of the monetary policy and of capital flows. Turning to the empirical side, structural portfolio models prove out to be unstable when econometric estimates are used, even with a stabilizing specification for interest rates. Nevertheless, we choose this approach for its explicit description of arbitrages. But restrictions are imposed in order not to destabilize the mimosa model. Interest rates follow reaction functions. Mimosa's properties are largely modified when endogenous interest rates and exchange rates are introduced. Simulations are in line with theoretical results, with a few differences due to the real model features and to the variety of devices included
Stemitsiotis, Loukas. "Parité de pouvoir d'achat et taux de change de référence". Paris 1, 1990. http://www.theses.fr/1990PA010020.
Pełny tekst źródłaThe purpose of thisthesis is to define macroeconomic equilibrium exchange rates, given the interdependent nature of the industrial economies. First we consider the rates implied by the purchasing power parity theory and test its validity. Our results reject this theory in both its absolute and relative version. Second, we try to explain deviations from P. P. P. Using long-term relationships and taking into account structural variables of the economies. The real exchange rate is proved to be positively related to the level of real income per capita, to relative productivity, to tha quality of trade specialization, and to the relative saging rate. Third, we propose two models in order to establish medium-term equilibrium exchange rates. The first one is based on the principle of proportionnal distribution of world disequilibria between countries. The second one refers to a balanced trade account, which in turn is determined by differencies in growth rates and price competitiveness. Equilibrium exchange rates resulting from these models can be used as reference values in the framework of international management of the exchange rates of the major industrial countries
Liang, Zhicheng. "Taux de change réel et répartition des revenus en Chine". Thesis, Clermont-Ferrand 1, 2011. http://www.theses.fr/2011CLF10365.
Pełny tekst źródłaThe present dissertation investigates the relationship between real exchange rate, income inequality and rural poverty in China. We attempt to answer two principal questions: (i) to what extent will the variation of real exchange rate affect income inequality in China? (ii) how will the variation of real exchange rate impact the evolving pattern of China’s rural poverty? For this purpose, the present dissertation is organized into four chapters. Chapter One reviews the evolution of China’s exchange rate regime, by taking into consideration the fast-Changing international situations as well as the internal economic, political and institutional conditions of this country. Chapter Two describes the changing pattern of income inequality and the evolution of rural poverty in China. It is observed that since 1978 China has achieved remarkable progress in the alleviation of poverty, which has been accompanied, however, by rising inequalities. In addition, there is growing evidence that the variation of real exchange rate plays an important role in affecting China’s distribution of income. Chapter Three provides a theoretical analysis on the linkage between real exchange rate and income distribution. Such an linkage has been shown to be complex, involving various transmission channels (direct and indirect). Finally, with the help of panel data at provincial level, Chapter Four empirically estimates the nexus between real exchange rate, income inequality and rural poverty in China. The econometric results show that the real appreciation of the Chinese currency significantly contributes to the reduction of income inequality and the alleviation of rural poverty in post-Reform China
Bellando, Raphaëlle. "Analyse et enjeux des anticipations de taux de change : une appréciation à partir de données d'enquête". Orléans, 1991. http://www.theses.fr/1991ORLE0001.
Pełny tekst źródłaThis work consists of an analysis of exchange rate expectations using survey data. Both the efficiency hypothesis and the rational bubbles theory are dealt with. We also make a review of the empirical works published on these topics. In the second part, we study the dollar expectations in the 80's using survey data. Our point is to show that the rationality is not accepted, that their performances are very poor, and that their relationship with fundamental variables hardly exists at all. In addition, we point to an obvious improvement of the expectation performances, as well as a better relationship with economic variables after 1985, with the renewed intervention of the monetary authorities on the dollar market
Namur, Dominique. "Détermination, couverture et valorisation du risque sur le marché des changes". Paris 13, 1992. http://www.theses.fr/1992PA131001.
Pełny tekst źródłaThis work unifies the varied approaches of international assets pricing in continuous time and precises in what way they hold. The central model bear simultaneously stochastic investment and consumption opportunities set, deviations from ppp, random domestic inflation, no riskless rate and cash. Equilibrium relations are derived also few proportional relations between individual and market portfolio. The proposed interpretations of optimal portfolio explain passive and active exchange strategies and generalize theoretical foundations of portfolio balances approach. Some simplified cases lead to usual models. In the most general case, four components of risk premium are isolated which two connected with exchange rates. We propose a general method to hedge exchange risk when riskless rate is away. Two empirical works are proposed: the first is a long term approach and characterize exchange risk for thirty last years from french investor viewpoint. The second determine optimal strategies founded exclusively upon valorization of daily exchange risk since 1987 and test the assumption of stability of international returns covariance matrix
Guermazi-Bouassida, Sana. "Le choix du régime de change et taux de change réel : cas de la Tunisie". Paris 2, 2007. http://www.theses.fr/2007PA020026.
Pełny tekst źródłaQin, Li. "Uncertainty, robust control and optimal monetary policy design". Université Louis Pasteur (Strasbourg) (1971-2008), 2008. http://www.theses.fr/2008STR1EC06.
Pełny tekst źródłaThis thesis analyze the conduct of monetary policy in the presence of uncertainty. By adopting the framework proposed by Hansen and Sargent (2003), we analyze the behaviors of monetary authorities and private agents when faced with various sources of uncertainty, as well as their consequences in terms of macroeconomic performances. Our work shows that, in order to guard against the possibly catastrophic results of the worst-case scenario, central bankers have to react in an active manner, by manipulating the interest rate. However, in an open economy, the magnitude of this adjustment decreases with the degree of openness. Also, greater transparency of the central bank's objectives, by reducing preference uncertainty, will attenuate the variations of macroeconomic variables that follow the consideration of possible erroneous specifications. It is thus advisable to reveal informations about the central bankers' preferences, including their own estimates of the degree of model uncertainty
Bresson, Georges. "Prévision des cours de change, surajustement et offre de monnaie". Paris 12, 1987. http://www.theses.fr/1987PA122013.
Pełny tekst źródłaYougbaré, Lassana. "Effets macroéconomiques des régimes de change : essais sur la volatilité, la croissance économique et les déséquilibres du taux de change réel". Clermont-Ferrand 1, 2009. https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00377436/document.
Pełny tekst źródłaRecognizing the importance of the exchange rate system for open economies, we study the macroeconomic effects of exchange rate regimes. In the first chapter, we define the exchange rate regime and discuss the official or de jure classification of exchange regimes by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) as well as de factoclassifications developed by Levy Yeyati and Sturzenegger (2005) and by Reinhart and Rogoff (2003). We subsequently discuss the question of which classification(s) of regimes to use. In the second chapter, the impact of exchange rate regimes on growth volatility is investigated. Building on the literature on the relationships between the exchange rate arrangement and volatility and the literature on the determinants of growth volatility, the objective is to know whether the exchange rate system affects growth volatility once the determinants of volatility identified by the existing literature are controlled for. The chapter also assesses the channels through which the exchange rate regime affects volatility. In particular, we ask whether the contribution of terms of trade instability to growth volatility is influenced by the exchange rate arrangement. Is the impact of the exchange rate regime on volatility affected by financial and economic development ? Volatility or instability is measured from a trend which process is obtained from panel unit root tests. By using de jure exchange rate regimes along with de facto ones as classified by Reinhart et Rogoff (2003), we are able to assess the sensitivity of the results to the classification of exchange regimes. In the third chapter, the analysis is taken a step further by investigating whether the relation between growth and volatility is modified by the exchange rate system. Does the exchange rate regime modify the direct impact of volatility on growth ? In other words, does a given level of volatility reduces output growth identically under fixed and flexible regimes ? Moreover, are the indirect effects of volatility on the growth rate of per capita real output modified by the exchange rate system ? To answer the latter question, the channels of investment, human capital, trade and financial development are considered. Another objective of the chapter is to verify whether the effects of exchange rate regimes and volatility on output growth are heterogeneous or not according to the very quantiles of output growth. To pursue this avenue, we use the technique of regression quantiles with instrumental variables. In the fourth chapter, the impact of the exchange rate arrangement on the economy's adjustment is analyzed. Does the adjustment of the economy – measured by real exchange rate misalignment – depend on the exchange rate regime ? Is the impact of the exchange rate system on misalignment explained by its effects on real overvaluation and undervaluation episodes ? What do de jure and de facto exchange rate regimes, and deviations of announced from observed exchange rate policies reveal ? To answer these questions, we follow two steps. In the first one, a cointegration relation between the real exchange rate and its real and nominal determinants is estimated using non stationary panel techniques (Pedroni, 1996, 2000 and 2004) in the samples of low income, middle income and high income countries. Misalignment is then obtained as the deviation of the actual real exchange rate from its equilibrium value, the latter being determined by the equilibrium values of the fundamentals. In the second step, the impact of the exchange rate regime on the economy's adjustment is assessed using the measure of real exchange rate misalignment computed in the first step
Louargant, Christine. "Risque de change et valeur de l'entreprise". Grenoble 2, 2000. http://www.theses.fr/2000GRE2A003.
Pełny tekst źródłaGente, Karine. "Les fondamentaux du taux de change réel d'équilibre dans une petite économie ouverte". Aix-Marseille 2, 2001. http://theses.univ-amu.fr.lama.univ-amu.fr/2001AIX24001.pdf.
Pełny tekst źródłaSaadaoui, Jamel. "Déséquilibres globaux, taux de change d'équilibre et modélisation stock-flux cohérente". Phd thesis, Université Paris-Nord - Paris XIII, 2012. http://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00758015.
Pełny tekst źródłaOwoundi, Ferdinand. "Mésalignements du taux de change et croissance économique en Afrique subsaharienne". Thesis, Poitiers, 2015. http://www.theses.fr/2015POIT4001/document.
Pełny tekst źródłaFaced with the success of Southeast Asian economies, fueled by an export-led growth strategy, an important literature developed around the question of the growth effects of exchange rate misalignments. This work provides further insights on this question, by focusing on the particular case of Sub-Saharan African countries, whose growth has picked up since the beginning of the 21st century. In this perspective, we first determine the equilibrium exchange rate as this value provides a benchmark for the computation of misalignments. This step allows us to tackle the importance of the exchange rate regime in limiting misalignments. It seems that the exchange rate regime has an ambiguous effect on limiting misalignments. Subsequent to this analysis, we assess the impact of misalignments on growth in 16 Sub-Saharan African countries. The results of this assessment are in favor of the thesis that the overvaluation acts negatively on growth. However, the under-valuation of the exchange rate does not have a positive effect, irrespective of the institutional framework considered. Therefore, it seems that countries' exit from the Franc Zone cannot be justified by the expectation that the manipulation of the exchange rate would offer countries more policy flexibility
Sallenave, Audrey. "Mésalignements des taux de change et croissance économique : quatre essais empiriques". Thesis, Paris 10, 2012. http://www.theses.fr/2012PA100144.
Pełny tekst źródłaThis thesis attempts to shed new light on the link hotly debated and contested between exchange rates fluctuations and economic growth. We sought to report under various empirical exercises the impact of misalignments on economic growth in many developed, emerging and developing countries since the 1980s until the most recent period. The four empirical applications of this thesis and all intended to answer this question, but from different angles of view. Three main contributions come from our thesis. The first on is to identify the impact of exchange rate misalignments on economic growth, and its evolution accross time. We have shown that misalignments are harmful for growth throughout the following period (1980-2010) and the gradual reduction of their magnitude is accompanied by a reduction of their impact on economic growth in the major economies G7. The second contribution of this thesis lies in the search for a possible non-linearity in the misalignment-growth nexus. Using a threshold model, we have highlighted the existence of non-linearities in the relationship between misalignments and growth. The third contribution of this thesis lies in the analysis of the international transmission of currency misalignments on economic growth for both developed and emerging markets. Thus, using a GVAR model, we investigate the effects of overvaluation and undervaluation of the dollar, the euro and the renminbi on their own growth, but also that of their partners. The results highlight the leadership of the U.S. economy in global growth, but it also appears that the reduction of global imbalances is not linked to an adjustment of the dollar
Bizimana, Olivier. "Essais sur la dynamique du taux de change et l’intégration financière". Paris 9, 2009. https://portail.bu.dauphine.fr/fileviewer/index.php?doc=2009PA090012.
Pełny tekst źródłaIn this thesis, we analyze the dynamics of exchange rates in a growing financial integration environment. We first review the main puzzles characterizing the exchange rates. We show that the traditional theoretical models fail to explain the exchange rates dynamics in the current financial environment. Furthermore, we implement an econometric analysis on data surveys conducted by Reuters, and we show that agents anticipate a reversal of trends in the dollar towards the PPP; and that this form of expectation is rational. We then assess the importance of capital markets in the analysis of exchange rate dynamics, which has not been addressed in literature so far. On the basis of a Generalized Portfolio Model taking into account the close relationship between the capital markets and foreign exchange market, we demonstrate that: (i) positive demand and productivity shocks imply a depreciation of the real exchange rate in the long-term; (ii) increasing the portfolio diversification (reduced "home bias") amplifies the response of the economic and financial variables after demand and supply shocks. Moreover, we show empirically that the external debt of the United States and the differential of rate of return on capital are important determinants of the dollar real effective exchange rate. Lastly, we show that portfolio models integrating these variables realize the best performances in forecasting exchange rates
Jamel, Saadaoui. "Déséquilibres globaux, taux de change d'équilibre et modélisation stock-flux cohérente". Paris 13, 2012. http://scbd-sto.univ-paris13.fr/secure/ederasme_th_2012_saadaoui.pdf.
Pełny tekst źródłaSince the mid-1990s, we observe a global increase of current account imbalances. In 2007, before the climax of the financial crisis, they reached 2% of world GDP in absolute value. At the global level, the persistence of large current account imbalances is a threat to the macroeconomic and macrofinancial stability. This thesis analyses this phenomenon of global imbalances by using two complementary approaches : equilibrium exchange rates models and stock-flow consistent models. These two approaches can be considered as complementary insofar as they analyze the same problem from a different point of view. Equilibrium exchange rate models and particularly the FEER approach introduced by Williamson (1994) try to calculate exchange rate variations needed to reach a sustainable current account balance. Stock-flow consistent models à la Godley-Lavoie (2007) seek to analyze adjustments in terms of level of output and exchange rate dynamics in a context of imbalances. A return of large imbalances is not excluded. It appears that an international monetary cooperation aimed at preventing the return of large imbalances at the world and intra-European levels is a necessary condition to ensure global recovery
ABOU, EL HASSAN AHMED. "Approches theorique et econometrique de la determination des taux de change". Poitiers, 1991. http://www.theses.fr/1991POIT4008.
Pełny tekst źródłaThis study deals with the determinants of exchange rates. It develops the monetary, keynesian and assets market approaches of exchange rates determination. The conclusion is based upon five findings : (1)-the exchange rate is the relative price of different national assets, rather than national outputs and is determined primarily by the demands and supplies of stocks of different national assets. (2) - exchange rates are strongly influenced by asset holder's expectations of future exchange rates and these expectations are influenced by beliefs concerning the future course of monetary policy. (3) - "real" factors, as well as monetary factors, are important in determining the behavior of exchange rates. (4) - the econometric results confirm the narrow relationship between monetary variables and the exchange rate. They assert that the exchange rates and the balance of payments are dynamic and monetary phenomenons. (5) - the problems of policy conflict which exist under a system of fixed rates are reduced, but not eliminated, under a regime of controlled floating
Neto, Delfim Gomes. "Mouvements de capitaux, croissance, taux de change réel et libéralisation économique". Paris, EHESS, 2001. http://www.theses.fr/2001EHES0019.
Pełny tekst źródłaTeïletche, Jérôme. "Microstructure et dynamique à très haute fréquence des taux de change". Bordeaux 4, 2000. http://www.theses.fr/2000BOR40015.
Pełny tekst źródłaNoumba, Issidor. "Les effets de l'instabilité des taux de change sur l'économie camerounaise". Bordeaux 1, 1993. http://www.theses.fr/1993BOR1D007.
Pełny tekst źródłaThe aim of this thesis is to examin the effects of exchange rates changes on the economy of a country belonging to a monetary area. The interest of the subject lies on the fact that even if the countries of the area have chosen fixe rates, they still be confronted with the changes of the rates of their trade partners wich do not belong to the area. The study shows that in spite of the belonging of cameroun to the franc area, and the tigth cooperation with france, its exchange rates have greatly fluctuated between 1974 and 1987. This is true for the bilateral and effective rates. This means that, from year to year the exchange rates varied a lot. A hundred firms have been surveyed and it appears that changes of exchange rates should be a source of financial difficulties encountered by these firms. In fact, they do not master the exports and imports prices but must pay back their debts in foreign exchange. Then, the macroeconomic effects seem negative. At the macroeconomic level, a simple econometric annalysis shows that the depreciation of effective exchange rate could presulably
Mahjoub, Khallad A. "Le Flottement des monnaies et la stabilité des taux de change". Grenoble 2 : ANRT, 1986. http://catalogue.bnf.fr/ark:/12148/cb37599304f.
Pełny tekst źródłaSari, Camille. "Taux de change, rôle économique de l'état à propos de modèles /". Grenoble 2 : ANRT, 1987. http://catalogue.bnf.fr/ark:/12148/cb376097563.
Pełny tekst źródłaRapaz, Virgilio José. "Choix effectif des régimes de change et intégration monétaire". Orléans, 1992. http://www.theses.fr/1992ORLE0501.
Pełny tekst źródłaContemporary exchange rate regimes are very diversified. Nevertheless, about sixty per cent of i. M. F. 's member countries peg their currencies to other currencies. Why have economic authorities such a clear preference for pegged exchange rates? This dissertation tries to answer that question, having in mind that nowadays, with a generalized floating among main currencies, to peg a currency has a very different meaning confronted with that of the previous experience, when the currencies were defined, directly or indirectly, in terms of gold. In a certain way, one can say that the international monetary structure is characterized by the existence of several polar sets according to the choice of the currency-anchors. Hence the interest of studying the theories of the optimum currency areas and the optimal peg and our idea of analyzing the relationships between the effective choices of exchange rate regimes and monetary integration. Two essential features of the world economy - interdependence and uncertainty together with a major preoccupation of economic policymakers of small open countries - stabilization - and their vision of the recent experience of floating exchange rates lead, we think, to a particular evaluation of pegged currencies, interpreted as a first step to materialize the net advantages of monetary integration
Cavert, Gilles. "Dynamique instable des taux de change franc-dollar et franc-deutschemark en système de change flexible". Toulouse 1, 1995. http://www.theses.fr/1995TOU10009.
Pełny tekst źródłaThe purpose of this thesis is to analyze the principal factors of the French franc-dollar and French franc deutschemark exchange rates during the 1973-1993 period, and more precisely the interaction between trade flows and exchange rates. The first part sets out the theories which give trade flows an important role in the exchange rate determination. Then, after appreciating the international trade evolution, it studies the main determinants of the unstable exchange rate dynamics. Therefore, devaluation, speculation, overshooting, and virtuous vicious circles phenomenons will be emphasized. The second part is an empirical study of the franc-dollar and franc-deutschemark evolution focusing on the 1979-1993 period. A model appreciates the link between the bilateral trade flow and the exchange rate. A key issue is that the franc-deutschemark exchange rate fluctuation is consistent with the vicious circle approach. To conclude, we will see what the future possible issues of the international monetary system are