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Artykuły w czasopismach na temat "Incertitude du scenario"
Camolas, José, Osvaldo Santos, Pedro Moreira i Isabel Do Carmo. "Promovendo Mudanças Comportamentais Sustentáveis no Controlo do Peso Corporal". Acta Médica Portuguesa 27, nr 1 (9.01.2014): 99. http://dx.doi.org/10.20344/amp.4721.
Pełny tekst źródłaSamimian-Darash, Limor. "Scenarios in a Time of Urgency". Social Anthropology/Anthropologie Sociale 30, nr 4 (1.12.2022): 90–109. http://dx.doi.org/10.3167/saas.2022.300407.
Pełny tekst źródłaVincendon, Béatrice, Simon Edouard i Véronique Ducrocq. "De l'incertitude dans un système de prévision d'ensemble des crues rapides méditerranéennes". La Houille Blanche, nr 3-4 (październik 2019): 22–30. http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/lhb/2019051.
Pełny tekst źródłaRozos, Evangelos, David Butler i Christos Makropoulos. "An integrated system dynamics – cellular automata model for distributed water-infrastructure planning". Water Supply 16, nr 6 (5.05.2016): 1519–27. http://dx.doi.org/10.2166/ws.2016.080.
Pełny tekst źródłaKadner Graziano, Thomas. "A Multilateral and Case-Oriented Approach to the Teaching and Studying of Comparative Law: A Proposal". European Review of Private Law 23, Issue 6 (1.12.2015): 927–44. http://dx.doi.org/10.54648/erpl2015056.
Pełny tekst źródłaMuerth, M. J., B. Gauvin St-Denis, S. Ricard, J. A. Velázquez, J. Schmid, M. Minville, D. Caya, D. Chaumont, R. Ludwig i R. Turcotte. "On the need for bias correction in regional climate scenarios to assess climate change impacts on river runoff". Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions 9, nr 9 (7.09.2012): 10205–43. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hessd-9-10205-2012.
Pełny tekst źródłaPenna, J. L., A. H. Andrei, S. C. Boscardin, E. Reis Neto i V. A. d'Ávila. "A solar cycle lengthwise series of solar diameter measurements". Proceedings of the International Astronomical Union 5, S264 (sierpień 2009): 49–54. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s174392130999233x.
Pełny tekst źródłaKourat, Tassadit, Dalila Smadhi i Azzeddine Madani. "Modeling the Impact of Future Climate Change Impacts on Rainfed Durum Wheat Production in Algeria". Climate 10, nr 4 (23.03.2022): 50. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/cli10040050.
Pełny tekst źródłaBoidart, Arnaud, Martin Darveau, Nicole Déry i Marie-Claude Racine. "Real-World Budget Impact of Listing a Biosimilar of Rituximab". Canadian Journal of Hospital Pharmacy 73, nr 1 (20.02.2020). http://dx.doi.org/10.4212/cjhp.v73i1.2953.
Pełny tekst źródłaRozprawy doktorskie na temat "Incertitude du scenario"
Daniel, Lionel. "Paraconsistent probabilistic reasoning : applied to scenario recognition and voting theory". Paris, ENMP, 2010. http://pastel.archives-ouvertes.fr/pastel-00537758.
Pełny tekst źródłaIf we envisage delegating critical decisions to an autonomous computer, we should not only endow it with common sense, but also formally verify that such a machine is programmed to safely react in every situation, notably when the situation is depicted with uncertainty. In this thesis, I deem an uncertain situation to be a possibly inconsistent probabilistic propositional knowledge base, which is a possibly unsatisfiable multiset of constraints on a probability distribution over a propositional language, where each constraint can be given a reliability level. The main problem is to infer one probabilistic distribution that best represents the real world, with respect to a given knowledge base. The reactions of the computer, previously programmed then verified, will be determined by that distribution, which is the probabilistic model of the real world. J. B. Paris et al stated a set of seven commonsensical principles that characterises the inference from consistent knowledge bases. Following their approach, I suggest adhering to further principles intended to define common sense when reasoning from an inconsistent knowledge base. My contribution is thus the first principled framework of paraconsistent probabilistic reasoning that comprises not only an inference process, which coincides with J. B. Paris's one when dealing with consistent knowledge bases, but also several measures of dissimilarity, inconsistency, incoherence, and precision. Besides, I show that such an inference process is a solution to a problem originating from voting theory, namely reaching a consensus among conflicting opinions about a probability distribution; such a distribution can also represent a distribution of a financial investment. To conclude, this study enhances our understanding of common sense when dealing with inconsistencies; injecting common sense into decision systems should make them more trustworthy
Le, Guenedal Théo. "Financial Modeling of Climate-related Risks". Electronic Thesis or Diss., Institut polytechnique de Paris, 2022. http://www.theses.fr/2022IPPAG009.
Pełny tekst źródłaThis research project aims at estimating financial risks related to climate change. Beyond the applications and quantitative findings, the main objective of the chapters of this thesis is to provide a structural and methodological framework that is generalizable, in order to facilitate their integration by practitioners. The first chapter proposes a bottom-up measure of transition risk, which can be incorporated with classical risk models (Merton or credit risk model). This cost-based approach is limited to the directly polluting sectors, which leads to the second chapter, which allows for the diffusion of transition risk through the value chain. These approaches offer a static structure that allows for a fixed scenario stress-test but not for pricing the bonds by considering heterogeneous scenarios and the probability of realization. To this end, chapter three proposes a pricing model that integrates a Bayesian approach in updating scenario probabilities based on observed jumps in carbon pricing mechanisms. Finally, the last chapter proposes a Monte-Carlo methodology for simulating annual damages caused by tropical cyclones. The conversion of raw climatic data into a synthetic database of losses is achieved by coupling statistical and thermodynamic relationships. The exposure of physical assets, the dynamics of socio-economic factors, local population densities and specific vulnerabilities in different regions of the world are borrowed from different segments of the literature, and combined to obtain a complete model of the classical triptych necessary for the study of physical hazards: hazard intensity x exposure x vulnerability generalizable and homogeneous across countries. The resulting signal can then be simply included in credit risk models equating annualized damages with additional debt
Zhou, Weifeng. "Resilience analysis of nuclear fuel cycle scenarios". Thesis, Université Grenoble Alpes, 2020. http://www.theses.fr/2020GRALI055.
Pełny tekst źródłaNuclear fuel cycle systems, composed of reactors, various fuels, and different cycle facilities, are complex and in constant evolution. Thanks to their abilities to make projections of industrial strategies and to assess the associated impacts on nuclear fuel cycle systems, nuclear fuel cycle scenarios are considered as a powerful tool for decision-making analyses. Scenario studies assist decision-makers in identifying the strengths and weaknesses of different strategies for a nuclear fleet evolution and then proposing possible evolution trajectories for the nuclear industry according to constraints from physics, economics, industry, etc.However, scenario studies are usually subject to different kinds of uncertainties, especially the so-called “deep uncertainty.” This concept refers to “unknown unknowns,” which scenario study results are unsuited to address. Indeed, under the impact of deep uncertainty, i.e., disruptions, the trajectories proposed by the scenario studies can become invalid: they do not satisfy the scenario constraints anymore.In order to make the trajectories valid again after disruption due to uncertainty, the first possibility is to study the resistance strategy. The resistance strategy consists of finding scenario trajectories that remain valid under the impact of uncertainty without exogenous readjustments of trajectories. However, the resistance capabilities of scenarios are limited: resistance is only adapted to uncertainties with small impact, while the impact of deep uncertainty is usually strong.As a complementary solution to the resistance strategy, we propose using resilience strategies. The resilience strategies consist of using predesigned measures, called “levers,” to readjust the scenario trajectory when the resistance strategy is insufficient. We aim to use the effect of the exogenous readjustments of trajectories, which are introduced through the levers, to counterbalance the impact of disruption and remain the trajectory valid. To evaluate the resilience of scenarios, we developed a resilience analysis framework, based on the start-of-the-art SUR (Stepwise Uncertainty Reduction) algorithm.We applied the developed resilience strategy to two scenario problems in which a simplified French nuclear fleet with uncertain power reduction is considered. To define the validity of trajectory, we imposed five constraints about the reprocessing plant utilization ratio, plutonium separation, plutonium content in MOX fuel, and spent fuel storage. In each problem, we gave a prior trajectory supposed as a result of a scenario study with a hypothesis to keep the installed power constant in the future. We assumed that following the disruption of the study context, the total electricity power is disrupted and reduced in the future. The results showed that the prior trajectories in both problems are resilient for the assumed disruptions: it is possible to keep the prior trajectories valid by readjusting the reprocessing and the MOX fuel loadings in reactors. Such results demonstrate the evolutions of the nuclear fleet in the prior trajectories are flexible in front of the disruption of total electricity power
Benouhiba, Toufik. "Approche génétique et floue pour les systèmes d'agents adaptatifs : application à la reconnaissance des scenarii". Troyes, 2005. http://www.theses.fr/2005TROY0014.
Pełny tekst źródłaThe objective of this thesis is to use minimal a priori knowledge in order to generate uncertain rules which manipulate imprecise data. The proposed architecture has been tested on a multi-agent system to recognize scenarios. The realized works are distributed into three axis: - The first one concerns uncertain reasoning with imprecise data. The evidence theory and intuitionistic fuzzy logic have been used to model such reasoning. – The second axis corresponds to classifier systems and genetic programming. The proposed approach use the power of genetic programming and combine it to classifier systems. A new learning mechanism based on evidence theory is introduced in order to use this theory as a support of reasoning. – The third axis concerns cooperation in adaptive multi-agents systems. Classifier systems have been improved by using an explicit cooperation between a number of classifier agents. We also propose a new data fusion operator based on evidence theory and adapted to the manipulated data. The developed system has been used to recognize car’s maneuvers. In fact, we have proposed a multi-agent architecture to make recognition. Maneuvers are decomposed into several layers in order to recognize them with a given granularity level
Langanay, Jean. "Quantification des incertitudes d'une exploitation d'un gisement d'uranium par Récupération In Situ". Electronic Thesis or Diss., Université Paris sciences et lettres, 2021. http://www.theses.fr/2021UPSLM035.
Pełny tekst źródłaUranium In Situ Recovery (ISR) is based on the direct leaching of the uranium ore in the deposit by a mining solution. Fluid flow and geochemical reaction in the reservoir are difficult to predict due to geological, petrophysical and geochemical uncertainties. The reactive transport simulation code used to model ISR is very sensitive to the spatial distribution of the physical and chemical properties of the deposit. Geostatistical models are used to represent the uncertainty of the spatial distribution of geological properties. The direct propagation of geological uncertainties by multiple ISR mining simulations is intractable in an industrial context. This work presents a way to propagate geological uncertainties into uranium production uncertainties at a reduced computational cost, thanks to a scenario reduction method. A subset of geostatistical simulations is built to approximate the variability of a larger set. The selection is obtained using a proxy of reactive transport simulation. The main contribution of this work is the development of different proxys to approximate the uranium leaching. They allow the discrimination of geostatistical realizations in terms of potential uranium production.Then, the ISR simulation carried out with the selected geostatistical realizations gives an approximation of the uranium production variability over the whole set of geostatistical simulations. This approximation is then used to quantify the uncertainties on the uranium production. The proposed approach is assessed on real case studies. Finally, the propagation of the uranium production uncertainty, assessed by the scenario reduction method, on mining operation planning is developped. Furthermore, an exploratory work about the use of statistical meta-models as chemistry solvers is also presented
Nosjean, Nicolas. "Management et intégration des risques et incertitudes pour le calcul de volumes de roches et de fluides au sein d’un réservoir, zoom sur quelques techniques clés d’exploration Integrated Post-stack Acoustic Inversion Case Study to Enhance Geological Model Description of Upper Ordovicien Statics : from imaging to interpretation pitfalls and an efficient way to overcome them Improving Upper Ordovician reservoir characterization - an Algerian case study Tracking Fracture Corridors in Tight Gas Reservoirs : An Algerian Case Study Integrated sedimentological case study of glacial Ordovician reservoirs in the Illizi Basin, Algeria A Case Study of a New Time-Depth Conversion Workflow Designed for Optimizing Recovery Proper Systemic Knowledge of Reservoir Volume Uncertainties in Depth Conversion Integration of Fault Location Uncertainty in Time to Depth Conversion Emergence of edge scenarios in uncertainty studies for reservoir trap analysis Enhancing geological model with the use of Spectral Decomposition - A case study of a prolific stratigraphic play in North Viking Graben, Norway Fracture corridor identification through 3D multifocusing to improve well deliverability, an Algerian tight reservoir case study Geological Probability Of Success Assessment for Amplitude-Driven Prospects, A Nile Delta Case Study". Thesis, université Paris-Saclay, 2020. http://www.theses.fr/2020UPASS085.
Pełny tekst źródłaIn the last 20 years, I have been conducting various research projects focused on the management of risks and uncertainties in the petroleum exploration domain. The various research projects detailed in this thesis are dealing with problematics located throughout the whole Exploration and Production chain, from seismic acquisition and processing, until the optimal exploration to development wells placement. Focus is made on geophysical risks and uncertainties, where these problematics are the most pronounced and paradoxically the less worked in the industry. We can subdivide my research projects into tree main axes, which are following the hydrocarbon exploration process, namely: seismic processing, seismic interpretation thanks to the integration with various well informations, and eventually the analysis and extraction of key uncertainties, which will be the basis for the optimal calculation of in place and recoverable volumes, in addition to the associated risk analysis on a given target structure. The various research projects that are detailed in this thesis have been applied successfully on operational North Africa and North Sea projects. After introducing risks and uncertainty notions, we will detail the exploration process and the key links with these issues. I will then present four major research projects with their theoretical aspects and applied case study on an Algerian asset
Streszczenia konferencji na temat "Incertitude du scenario"
Aughenbaugh, Jason Matthew, Scott Duncan, Christiaan J. J. Paredis i Bert Bras. "A Comparison of Probability Bounds Analysis and Sensitivity Analysis in Environmentally Benign Design and Manufacture". W ASME 2006 International Design Engineering Technical Conferences and Computers and Information in Engineering Conference. ASMEDC, 2006. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/detc2006-99230.
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