Rozprawy doktorskie na temat „Impact of change”

Communication is inextricably linked with the process of organisational change (Lewis, 1999). However, managers report that communication of organisational change is challenging, particularly with the advent of continuously changing organisations (Buchanan, Claydon & Doyle, 1999). Continuously changing organisations are those that seek to be more flexible, more innovative and more responsive to the dynamic external environment. One of the problems associated with continuous change is the resultant impact of successive downsizings, re-engineering efforts and culture changes on employee receptivity to change. Despite the unquestioning adoption of continuous change efforts (Zorn, Christensen, & Cheney, 1999) there is a paucity of research on communication during this type of change. This thesis addresses this knowledge gap by situating the research within a continuous change context. The primary research question is 'how do change communication models impact on employee receptivity to change within a continuous change context', and this question considers issues pertaining to how accurately previous change communication models reflect and explain what occurs within change processes. This topic is examined within two case-study organisations through the use of multiple methods. The analysis occurs through an interpretive framework and utilises Langley's (1999) alternate templates as a strategy to manage the process based research. A model of change communication during continuous change is presented, with the central constructs of the model being monologic change communication, dialogic change communication and the background talk of change. Further, Van de Ven and Poole's (1995) Process Theories of Change are extended to consider the sequencing of the three constructs. The findings suggest that the sequencing of the dominant change communication models is informed by an alignment of individual communication competences and change communication expectations.

Communication is inextricably linked with the process of organisational change (Lewis, 1999). However, managers report that communication of organisational change is challenging, particularly with the advent of continuously changing organisations (Buchanan, Claydon & Doyle, 1999). Continuously changing organisations are those that seek to be more flexible, more innovative and more responsive to the dynamic external environment. One of the problems associated with continuous change is the resultant impact of successive downsizings, re-engineering efforts and culture changes on employee receptivity to change. Despite the unquestioning adoption of continuous change efforts (Zorn, Christensen, & Cheney, 1999) there is a paucity of research on communication during this type of change. This thesis addresses this knowledge gap by situating the research within a continuous change context. The primary research question is 'how do change communication models impact on employee receptivity to change within a continuous change context', and this question considers issues pertaining to how accurately previous change communication models reflect and explain what occurs within change processes. This topic is examined within two case-study organisations through the use of multiple methods. The analysis occurs through an interpretive framework and utilises Langley's (1999) alternate templates as a strategy to manage the process based research. A model of change communication during continuous change is presented, with the central constructs of the model being monologic change communication, dialogic change communication and the background talk of change. Further, Van de Ven and Poole's (1995) Process Theories of Change are extended to consider the sequencing of the three constructs. The findings suggest that the sequencing of the dominant change communication models is informed by an alignment of individual communication competences and change communication expectations.

The main objective of this thesis is to develop a robust statistical model by accounting the non-linear relationships between hospital admissions due to lower respiratory (LR) disease and factors of climate and pollution, and their delayed effects on hospital admissions. This study also evaluates whether the model fits can be improved by considering the non-linearity of the data, delayed effect of the significant factors, and thus calculate threshold levels of the significant climate and pollution factors for emergency LR hospital admissions. For the first time three unique administrative datasets were merged: Hospital Episode Statistics, Met office observational data for climate factors, and data from London Air Quality Network. The results of the final GLM, showed that daily temperature, rain, wind speed, sun hours, relative humidity, and PM10 significantly affected the LR emergency hospital admissions. Then, we developed a Distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) model considering the significant climate and pollution factors. Time and ‘day of the week’ was incorporated as linear terms in the final model. Higher temperatures around ≥270C a quicker effect of 0-2 days lag but lower temperatures (≤00C) had delayed effects of 5-25 days lag. Humidity showed a strong immediate effect (0-3 days) of the low relative humidity at around ≤40% and a moderate effect for higher humidity (≥80%) with lag period of 0-2 days. Higher PM10 around ≥70-μg/m3 has both shorter (0-3 days) and longer lag effects (15-20 days) but the latter one is stronger comparatively. A strong effect of wind speed around ≥25 knots showed longer lag period of 8-15 days. There is a moderate effect for a shorter lag period of 0-3 days for lower wind speed (approximately 2 knots). We also notice a stronger effect of sun hours around ≥14 hours having a longer lag period of 15-20 days and moderate effect between 1-2 hours of 5-12 days lag. Similarly, higher amount of rain (≥30mm) has stronger effects, especially for the shorter lag of 0-2 days and longer lag of 7- 10 days. So far, very little research has been carried out on DLNM model in such research area and setting. This PhD research will contribute to the quantitative assessment of delayed and non-linear lag effects of climate and pollutants for the Greater London region. The methodology could easily be replicated on other disease categories and regions and not limited to LR admissions. The findings may provide useful information for the development and implementation of public health policies to reduce and prevent the impact of climate change on health problems.

Adapting sectors to new conditions under climate change requires an understanding of regional vulnerabilities. Conceptually, vulnerability is defined as a function of sensitivity and exposure, which determine climate impacts, and adaptive capacity of a system. Vulnerability assessments for quantifying these components have become a key tool within the climate change field. However, there is a disagreement on how to make the concept operational in studies from a scientific perspective. This conflict leads to many still unsolved challenges, especially regarding the quantification and aggregation of the components and their suitable level of complexity. This thesis therefore aims at advancing the scientific foundation of such studies by translating the concept of vulnerability into a systematic assessment structure. This includes all components and implies that for each considered impact (e.g. flash floods) a clear sensitive entity is defined (e.g. settlements) and related to a direction of change for a specific climatic stimulus (e.g. increasing impact due to increasing days with heavy precipitation). Regarding the challenging aggregation procedure, two alternative methods allowing a cross-sectoral overview are introduced and their advantages and disadvantages discussed. This assessment structure is subsequently exemplified for municipalities of the German state North Rhine-Westphalia via an indicator-based deductive approach using information from literature. It can be transferred also to other regions. As for many relevant sectors, suitable indicators to express the vulnerability components are lacking, new quantification methods are developed and applied in this thesis, for example for the forestry and health sector. A lack of empirical data on relevant thresholds is evident, for example which climatic changes would cause significant impacts. Consequently, the multi-sectoral study could only provide relative measures for each municipality, in relation to the region. To fill this gap, an exemplary sectoral study was carried out on windthrow impacts in forests to provide an absolute quantification of the present and future impact. This is achieved by formulating an empirical relation between the forest characteristics and damage based on data from a past storm event. The resulting measure indicating the sensitivity is then combined with wind conditions. Multi-sectoral vulnerability assessments require considerable resources, which often hinders the implementation. Thus, in a next step, the potential for reducing the complexity is explored. To predict forest fire occurrence, numerous meteorological indices are available, spanning over a range of complexity. Comparing their performance, the single variable relative humidity outperforms complex indicators for most German states in explaining the monthly fire pattern. This is the case albeit it is itself an input factor in most indices. Thus, this meteorological factor alone is well suited to evaluate forest fire danger in many Germany regions and allows a resource-efficient assessment. Similarly, the complexity of methods is assessed regarding the application of the ecohydrological model SWIM to the German region of Brandenburg. The inter-annual soil moisture levels simulated by this model can only poorly be represented by simpler statistical approach using the same input data. However, on a decadal time horizon, the statistical approach shows a good performance and a strong dominance of the soil characteristic field capacity. This points to a possibility to reduce the input factors for predicting long-term averages, but the results are restricted by a lack of empirical data on soil water for validation. The presented assessments of vulnerability and its components have shown that they are still a challenging scientific undertaking. Following the applied terminology, many problems arise when implementing it for regional studies. Advances in addressing shortcomings of previous studies have been made by constructing a new systematic structure for characterizing and aggregating vulnerability components. For this, multiple approaches were presented, but they have specific advantages and disadvantages, which should also be carefully considered in future studies. There is a potential to simplify some methods, but more systematic assessments on this are needed. Overall, this thesis strengthened the use of vulnerability assessments as a tool to support adaptation by enhancing their scientific basis.
Die Anpassung von Sektoren an veränderte klimatische Bedingungen erfordert ein Verständnis von regionalen Vulnerabilitäten. Vulnerabilität ist als Funktion von Sensitivität und Exposition, welche potentielle Auswirkungen des Klimawandels darstellen, und der Anpassungsfähigkeit von Systemen definiert. Vulnerabilitätsstudien, die diese Komponenten quantifizieren, sind zu einem wichtigen Werkzeug in der Klimawissenschaft geworden. Allerdings besteht von der wissenschaftlichen Perspektive aus gesehen Uneinigkeit darüber, wie diese Definition in Studien umgesetzt werden soll. Ausdiesem Konflikt ergeben sich viele Herausforderungen, vor allem bezüglich der Quantifizierung und Aggregierung der einzelnen Komponenten und deren angemessenen Komplexitätsniveaus. Die vorliegende Dissertation hat daher zum Ziel die Anwendbarkeit des Vulnerabilitätskonzepts voranzubringen, indem es in eine systematische Struktur übersetzt wird. Dies beinhaltet alle Komponenten und schlägt für jede Klimaauswirkung (z.B. Sturzfluten) eine Beschreibung des vulnerablen Systems vor (z.B. Siedlungen), welches direkt mit einer bestimmten Richtung eines relevanten klimatischen Stimulus in Verbindung gebracht wird (z.B. stärkere Auswirkungen bei Zunahme der Starkregentage). Bezüglich der herausfordernden Prozedur der Aggregierung werden zwei alternative Methoden, die einen sektorübergreifenden Überblick ermöglichen, vorgestellt und deren Vor- und Nachteile diskutiert. Anschließend wird die entwickelte Struktur einer Vulnerabilitätsstudie mittels eines indikatorbasierten und deduktiven Ansatzes beispielhaft für Gemeinden in Nordrhein-Westfalen in Deutschland angewandt. Eine Übertragbarkeit auf andere Regionen ist dennoch möglich. Die Quantifizierung für die Gemeinden stützt sich dabei auf Informationen aus der Literatur. Da für viele Sektoren keine geeigneten Indikatoren vorhanden waren, werden in dieser Arbeit neue Indikatoren entwickelt und angewandt, beispielsweise für den Forst- oder Gesundheitssektor. Allerdings stellen fehlende empirische Daten bezüglich relevanter Schwellenwerte eine Lücke dar, beispielsweise welche Stärke von Klimaänderungen eine signifikante Auswirkung hervorruft. Dies führt dazu, dass die Studie nur relative Aussagen zum Grad der Vulnerabilität jeder Gemeinde im Vergleich zum Rest des Bundeslandes machen kann. Um diese Lücke zu füllen, wird für den Forstsektor beispielhaft die heutige und zukünftige Sturmwurfgefahr von Wäldern berechnet. Zu diesem Zweck werden die Eigenschaften der Wälder mit empirischen Schadensdaten eines vergangenen Sturmereignisses in Verbindung gebracht. Der sich daraus ergebende Sensitivitätswert wird anschließend mit den Windverhältnissen verknüpft. Sektorübergreifende Vulnerabilitätsstudien erfordern beträchtliche Ressourcen, was oft deren Anwendbarkeit erschwert. In einem nächsten Schritt wird daher das Potential einer Vereinfachung der Komplexität anhand zweier sektoraler Beispiele untersucht. Um das Auftreten von Waldbränden vorherzusagen, stehen zahlreiche meteorologische Indices zur Verfügung, welche eine Spannbreite unterschiedlicher Komplexitäten aufweisen. Bezüglich der Anzahl monatlicher Waldbrände weist die relative Luftfeuchtigkeit für die meisten deutschen Bundesländer eine bessere Vorhersagekraft als komplexere Indices auf. Dies ist er Fall, obgleich sie selbst als Eingangsvariable für die komplexeren Indices verwendet wird. Mit Hilfe dieses einzelnen meteorologischen Faktors kann also die Waldbrandgefahr in deutschen Region ausreichend genau ausgedrückt werden, was die Ressourceneffizienz von Studien erhöht. Die Methodenkomplexität wird auf ähnliche Weise hinsichtlich der Anwendung des ökohydrologischen Modells SWIM für die Region Brandenburg untersucht. Die interannuellen Bodenwasserwerte, welche durch dieses Modell simuliert werden, können nur unzureichend durch ein einfacheres statistisches Modell, welches auf denselben Eingangsdaten aufbaut, abgebildet werden. Innerhalb eines Zeithorizonts von Jahrzehnten, kann der statistische Ansatz jedoch das Bodenwasser zufriedenstellend abbilden und zeigt eine Dominanz der Bodeneigenschaft Feldkapazität. Dies deutet darauf hin, dass die Komplexität im Hinblick auf die Anzahl der Eingangsvariablen für langfristige Berechnungen reduziert werden kann. Allerdings sind die Aussagen durch fehlende beobachtete Bodenwasserwerte zur Validierung beschränkt. Die vorliegenden Studien zur Vulnerabilität und ihren Komponenten haben gezeigt, dass eine Anwendung noch immer wissenschaftlich herausfordernd ist. Folgt man der hier verwendeten Vulnerabilitätsdefinition, treten zahlreiche Probleme bei der Implementierung in regionalen Studien auf. Mit dieser Dissertation wurden Fortschritte bezüglich der aufgezeigten Lücken bisheriger Studien erzielt, indem eine systematische Struktur für die Beschreibung und Aggregierung von Vulnerabilitätskomponenten erarbeitet wurde. Hierfür wurden mehrere Ansätze diskutiert, die jedoch Vor- und Nachteile besitzen. Diese sollten vor der Anwendung von zukünftigen Studien daher ebenfalls sorgfältig abgewogen werden. Darüber hinaus hat sich gezeigt, dass ein Potential besteht einige Ansätze zu vereinfachen, jedoch sind hierfür weitere Untersuchungen nötig. Insgesamt konnte die Dissertation die Anwendung von Vulnerabilitätsstudien als Werkzeug zur Unterstützung von Anpassungsmaßnahmen stärken.

It is widely accepted that design changes, occurring during construction projects, can account for a significant proportion of the engineering design consultant’s total cost. Projects with multidisciplinary, distributed and virtual project teams, working on technically challenging problems, make the impact of design changes increasingly difficult to predict. Existing guidance suggests ‘best practice’ protocols for recording, reporting and communicating design changes. However, best practice protocols do not provide guidance for predicting the impact in terms of project cost and duration. Impact assessments are essential in the decision to implement changes and subsequently being in a position to justify fee claims to clients. Decisions in the construction process are normally based on experience and professional knowledge of practitioners, such as architects, engineers, project managers and contractors. There is evidence, however, that, in design management, sharing of professional knowledge tends to be tacit and socially constructed (where team members draw on their own experience and the experience of those around them). Although practitioner experience and intuition is invaluable in determining the impact of a design change, this research is based on the position that a more structured process is required. It is argued that a software based approach, to better inform practitioners’ existing knowledge, is required to improve the quality and accuracy of impact assessments. The current practice for managing and assessing change was examined through studying the operations of the case study organisation, undertaking a literature review and conducting interviews with representatives from organisations in other industries. A new project management tool was then developed which provides support for practitioners to make better-informed impact assessments. This is achieved through providing: (a) a process map to visualise rework, (b) instant access to previous similar impact assessments and (c) an embedded, standardised method for knowledge sharing. The concept for this tool was developed by combining appropriate techniques and tools found in the design management and knowledge management literature. Users are further encouraged to use the software tool through a system to automate the updating of Microsoft Project schedules, thus eliminating time currently spent scheduling rework. The validation and verification stages consisted of formal interviews with potential users and preliminary user testing. Regular feedback on the support tool was obtained from a wide range of peers and potential users and this was then used to develop its functionality. Positive feedback has included comments about the concept of the tool, user-friendliness and need for implementation.

The impacts of environmental change on ecological communities are poorly understood relative to impacts on species. Impacts on inter-community (beta-) diversity are particularly neglected. As a result, our ability to forecast the impacts of environmental change on communities, and on individual species constrained by those communities, is seriously limited. However, as conservation efforts increasingly emphasise broad-scale approaches in terms of multi-species coverage and spatial scale, it is imperative that understanding ofbiodiversity change at these scales is enhanced so that conservation can be based on appropriate scientific evidence. Within this thesis I aimed to conduct multi-species analyses over multi-decada1 temporal scales at the spatial meso-sca1e to improve our understanding of such issues in both terrestrial and marine ecosystems. I discussed my findings in the theoretical context of G1easonian and C1ementsian views of species distributions (i.e. limitations to individualistic species responses) and their impact at the community scale. The temporal extent provided the opportunity to empirically test emerging concepts, including non-analogous communities, biotic homogenization, metacommunities and climate tracking responses at an appropriate meso-sca1e. Although no evidence for nonanalogous communities was found, biotic homogenization was supported and appeared to be caused by increased nitrogen and decreased light availability. An intertidal assemblage also converged but appeared to be driven by a reduced sea surface temperature gradient. Woodland plant metacommunity structure was demonstrated to be C1ementsian for woodland plants despite experiencing biodiversity loss. Hydrodynamic features were demonstrated to act as meso-sca1e dispersal barriers that limited intertidal invertebrates in tracking of climate (sea surface temperature) over the last 20 years. These barriers appear to alter when modelled under a scenario of sea level rise. Overall, results suggest that species are responding individualistically but that these responses are bounded by extrinsic constraints.

Tutte le organizzazioni hanno un impatto che riguarda l'economia, la società e l'ambiente naturale. Gli studi accademici di diversi filoni di ricerca (ad business and society studies, accounting, strategic management) propongono diverse definizioni di "impatto sociale" (Latane, 1981; Burdge & Vanclay, 1996;. Emerson et al, 2000;. Clark et al, 2004 ). Tutte queste definizioni descrivono, in modo più o meno esplicito, il concetto di "cambiamento", essendo basati sulla “teoria del cambiamento” (Weiss, 1972; Anderson, 2004) - vale a dire, il cambiamento che un'organizzazione può produrre nel modo di vivere delle persone, nella cultura, personale nelle aspirazioni, ma anche rispetto alla comunità, ai sistemi politici, l'ambiente, la salute e il benessere. La misurazione dell’impatto sociale conduce l'organizzazione a considerare i cambiamenti prodotti sugli stakeholders come risultato di una serie di rapporti causa-effetto proposteidalla teoria del cambiamento. L'obiettivo della misurazione dell’impatto sociale è quindi di capire, in termini sociali, ambientali ed economici, i cambiamenti che si sono verificati nella vita delle parti interessate, a causa di attività di organizzazioni, al fine di comunicarlo (Nicholls et al, 2009). Nonostante il crescente interesse sulla misurazione dell'impatto sociale, la produzione accademica sull'argomento è ancora scarsa. La presente tesi contribuisce alla discussione in corso, concentrandosi sulla teoria, i concetti e strumenti per misurare l'impatto sociale. In particolare, due contesti di analisi sono presi in considerazione: la finanza etica e l'educazione all'imprenditorialità. La tesi si compone di tre articoli. La prima ricerca vuole fornire una revisione della letteratura sul tema della misurazione dell'impatto sociale nel contesto della finanza etica, il secondo articolo è una ricerca-azione su una metodologia per misurare l'impatto sociale delle banche etiche sviluppata attraverso lo studio del caso estremo di Banca Popolare Etica, e la terza ricerca riguarda il contesto della formazione imprenditoriale e mira a studiare l'impatto di un programma MBA sugli antecedenti dell’intenzione all'imprenditorialità di studenti in Ghana. Più in dettaglio, il primo documento è intitolato " Review of impact assessment methodologies for ethical finance ". Questo documento fornisce una rassegna completa della letteratura sulla misurazione dell'impatto sociale nelle banche etiche. In particolare, si discute l'approccio delle banche etiche all’impatto sociale e alla misurazione dell'impatto sociale considerando diversi studi e analisi, poi proponendo un elenco di indicatori e outcomes da utilizzare per evidenziare l'impatto sociale delle attività delle banche etiche. Si segnalano, inoltre, alcune lacune nella letteratura che abbiamo posto come questioni aperte per la ricerca futura. La ricerca è stata portata avanti con due partner: la Fédération Européenne des Banques et Ethiques Alternative (FEBEA) e l’Institute of Social banks (ISB). Il titolo della seconda ricerca è: " Measurement of social impact in financial institutions: the case of Banca Popolare Etica ". Si tratta di una ricerca-azione su una metodologia per misurare l'impatto sociale delle banche etiche, fondata sul caso di studio di Banca Popolare Etica. Usiamo un set di dati composto da 1.385 organizzazioni e 1324 individui, beneficiari dei finanziamenti, per studiare la misurazione dell'impatto sociale dei progetti finanziati. Integrando in un unico processo di valutazione (sia quantitative che qualitative) diverse metodologie generalmente utilizzate singolarmente per la misurazione di impatto sociale (Social Return on Investment (SROI), Impact Reporting Investment Standards (IRIS) e storytelling), il caso mostra come i limiti tradizionali di metodologie per misurare l'impatto sociale possono essere superati. Il terzo e ultimo studio è intitolato " Does entrepreneurial education impact on antecedents of entrepreneurial intention? An analysis of an Entrepreneurship MBA in Ghana". Questo studio ha lo scopo di analizzare gli effetti di un programma di educazione all'imprenditorialità, sugli antecedenti dell'intenzione imprenditoriale di studenti in un paese in via di sviluppo. Lo studio analizza i risultati di una ricerca di impatto eseguita con partecipanti di uno specifico programma di formazione all'imprenditorialità: il "E4impact MBA", tenuto dal l'Istituto Cattolico di Business and Technology - CIBT in Accra, Ghana. Il metodo misto impiegato, era un approccio esplicativo (Creswell, Plano Clark et al, 2003), con un disegno quasi-sperimentale (Cohen e Manion, 1989) con test pre e post e misure di cambiamento auto-percepito. Abbiamo valutato i cambiamenti nelle caratteristiche psicologiche imprenditoriali (Need for achievement, Self-efficacy, Locus of control; Risk taking propensity; Tolerance for ambiguity) e competenze e conoscenze personali (Creatività, Conoscenza, Flessibilità, Networking e analisi) sul modello esteso della Teoria del Comportamento Pianificato. L'analisi mostra che il programma di educazione all'imprenditorialità ha un forte impatto sugli antecedenti psicologici e cognitivi delle intenzioni imprenditoriali. Quindi, la partecipazione al programma di educazione all'imprenditorialità può influenzare positivamente le intenzioni imprenditoriali degli studenti e il controllo comportamentale percepito sostenendo l'idea che le università hanno un ruolo fondamentale nel plasmare e promuovere le intenzioni imprenditoriali e le abilità attraverso programmi di formazione all'imprenditorialità.
All organizations have impacts that affect economy, society and the natural environment. Academics from different streams of research (i.e. business and society studies, accounting, strategic management) propose several definitions of “social impact” (Latané, 1981; Burdge & Vanclay, 1996; Emerson et al., 2000; Clark et al., 2004). All these definitions describe, more or less explicitly, the concept of “change”, being each one based on the Theory of Change (Weiss, 1972; Anderson, 2004) – i.e., the change that an organization can produce in people’s way of life, culture, personal and property rights, fears and aspirations, but also with respect to community, political systems, environment, health and wellbeing. The measurement of social impact leads the organization to consider the changes on stakeholders as a result of the set of cause-effect relations proposed by the theory of change. The objective of social impact measurement thus is to understand, in social, environmental and economic terms, changes that have occurred in stakeholders’ lives because of organizations activities, in order to communicate it (Nicholls et al, 2009). Despite a growing interest on social impact measurement, academic production in the topic is still scarce. The present Ph.D. thesis contributes to the ongoing discussion by focusing on the theory, concepts and tools to measure social impact. In particular, two context of analysis are at issue: ethical finance and entrepreneurship education. The work consists of three papers. The first research wants to provide a review of the literature on the issue of measuring the social impact in the context of ethical finance, the second paper is an action research on a methodology for measuring the social impact of ethical banks developed through the extreme case study of Banca Popolare Etica, and the third research concerns the context of entrepreneurial education and aims at studying the impact of an MBA program on the antecedents of entrepreneurship intention of students in Ghana. More in details, the first paper is entitled “Review of impact assessment methodologies for ethical finance”. This paper provides a comprehensive review of the literature on measuring the social impact in ethical banks. Specifically, we discuss the approach of ethical banks to social impact and social impact measurement considering several studies and frameworks of analysis, then proposing a list of indicators and outcomes to be used to highlight the social impact of ethical banks’ activities. We also point out some gaps in the literature that we left as questions open for future research. The research was carried on with two partners: the Fédération Européenne des Banques Ethiques et Alternatives (FEBEA) and the Institute of Social banks (ISB). The title of the second paper is: “Measurement of social impact in financial institutions: the case of Banca Popolare Etica”. This is an action research on a methodology for measuring the social impact of ethical banks, grounded on the case study of Banca Popolare Etica. We use a dataset of 1,385 organizations and 1,324 individuals, recipients of funding, to study the measurement of the social impact of the projects funded. Integrating in a single assessment process (both quantitative and qualitative) various methodologies generally singularly used for the measurement of social impact (Social Return on Investment (SROI), Impact Reporting Investment Standards (IRIS) and storytelling), the case shows how the traditional limitations of methodologies to measure social impact can be overcome. The third and last study is entitled “Does entrepreneurial education impact on antecedents of entrepreneurial intention? An analysis of an Entrepreneurship MBA in Ghana”. This study has the aim to analyze the effects of an entrepreneurship education program, on the antecedents of entrepreneurial intention of students in a developing country. The study analyzes the results of an impact research conducted with participants to a specific entrepreneurship education program: the “E4impact MBA”, held by the Catholic Institute of Business and Technology – CIBT in Accra, Ghana. The mixed method design employed, was an explanatory approach (Creswell, Plano Clark et al., 2003) with a quasi-experimental design (Cohen and Manion, 1989) featuring both pre-post tests and self-perceived change measures. We assessed changes in entrepreneurial psychological characteristics (Need for achievement, Self-efficacy, Locus of control; Risk taking propensity; Tolerance for ambiguity) and personal skills and knowlwdge (Creativity, Knowledge, Flexibility, Networking and Analysis) following the extended model of the Theory of Planned Behaviour. The analysis shows that the entrepreneurship education program has a strong impact on psychological and cognitive antecedents of entrepreneurial intentions. That is, participation in entrepreneurship education program can positively influence students’ entrepreneurial intentions and perceived behavioral control supporting the idea that universities have a key role in shaping and fostering entrepreneurial intentions and abilities through entrepreneurship education program.

According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007), the global mean temperature has increased by 0,7 °C during the last 100 years and, as a consequence, the hydrological cycle has intensified with, for example, more intense rainfall events. As urban drainage systems have been developed over a long period of time and design criteria are based upon climatic characteristics, these changes will affect the systems and the city accordingly.The overall objective of this thesis is to increase the knowledge about urban drainage in a changing climate. In more detail, the objective is to investigate how climate change may affect urban drainage systems, and also to suggest methods for these investigations.The thesis consists of four papers. The first paper concentrates on the Delta change method for adaptation of rainfall data from climate models for urban hydrology use. The second paper is an impact assessment with urban drainage model simulation of a study area in the south of Sweden. The third paper is also an impact study, from a cause and effect approach, where the whole urban water is included. Finally, the fourth paper contains a strategy and suggestions about tools to use for assessing impacts on urban drainage systems due to climate change. The suggested tools are urban drainage model simulations, Geographical Information Systems (GIS), and risk analysis methods.The Delta change approach is feasible for handling the differences in spatial and temporal resolution between climate model data and the needs for urban drainage model simulations, as the method is relatively simple and the temporal resolution of observed rainfall series is preserved. In the study area with separated storm water system, the model simulations show that the number of surface floods as well as the geographical distribution of the floods increases in the future time periods (2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100). Future precipitation will also increase both the flooding frequency and the duration of floods; therefore, the need to handle future situations in urban drainage systems and to have a well-planned strategy to cope with future conditions is evident. The overall impacts on urban drainage systems due to increased precipitation may, for example, be an increased number of basement floods, surface floods, problems with property and road drainage, and also increased amount of infiltration into pipes and combined sewer overflows (CSOs). The knowledge gained from this thesis, and the strategy suggested, can be used as a starting point for impact studies on urban drainage systems. Since most impacts concern several different disciplines and a multifunctional understanding, the studies should also be performed in cooperation with parties concerned.
Godkänd; 2007; 20071010 (karober)

The global mean surface temperature rise was observed in the past century and proved the warming of the earth climate system. Global warming is believed to continue into the next decades due to unprecedented increases in greenhouse gas emissions. As a consequence of global warming, extreme weather scenarios are also expected to occur more frequently. In such a context, it is of vital importance to assess the impacts of climate change on the operational performance of power systems. This thesis investigates the impacts of climate change on the operational performance of power systems. The future climate is simulated based on emission scenarios and is then used as an input to the thermal models of power system components to assess their ratings and ageing, and further the reliability of the system. This research contributes to a number of areas in power system research. In the literature review, the risks that climate change may cause to power systems are identified. The models used for the simulation of future climate are firstly introduced. The weather variables that can be simulated from the models include air temperature, solar radiation, wind speed and direction, soil moisture and soil temperature. Among the models, the one for soil temperature is originally developed in this thesis. Following this, the component thermal models of overhead line, cable and transformer, from different standards are compared and selected. After that, the sensitivity of component ratings to individual weather variables is investigated, as a preliminary study for the later research in this thesis. Then, the impacts of climate change on component ratings (including both static and dynamic rating) are comprehensively and probabilistically assessed. The assessment results indicate the reduction of component ratings due to climate change. The impacts of climate change on system reliability is further examined on the IEEE Reliability Test System. Results demonstrate and quantify the reduction of both component ratings and system reliability, and prove that the dynamic rating can be used to mitigate the reduction. Finally, the preliminary exploration of transformer ageing is carried out and shows an increased ageing rate due to air temperature rises.

The conventional approach to the frequency analysis of extreme rainfall is complicated by non-stationarity resulting from climate change. In this study significant trends in extreme rainfall are detected using statistical trend tests (Mann-Kendall test and t-test) for all over the Korean Peninsula. The violation of the stationarity for 1 hour annual maximum series is detected for large part of the area especially for southwestern and northeastern regions. For stations showing non-stationarity, the non-stationary generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution model with a location parameter in the form of linear function of time makes significant improvement in modeling rainfall extremes when compared to the stationary GEV model. The Bartlett-Lewis rainfall model is used to generate annual maximum series for the purpose of generating the Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curve. Using 100 sets of 50 year synthetic annual maxima, it is found that the observed annual rainfall maximum series are reasonably represented by the model. The observed data is perturbed by change factors to incorporate the climate change scenario from the WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) regional climate model into IDF estimates. The IDF curves for the future period 2040-2079 show highest estimates for all return periods and rainfall durations. The future IDF estimates show significant difference from the IDF estimates of the historical period (1968-2000). Overall, IDF curves show an increasing tendency over time. A historical and future climate simulation is evaluated over the Colorado River Basin using a 111-year simulation (1969-2079) of the WRF climate change scenario. We find the future projections show statistically significant increases in temperature with larger increases in the northern part of the basin. There are statistically insignificant increases in precipitation, while snowfall shows a statistically significant decrease throughout the period in all but the highest elevations and latitudes. The strongest decrease in snowfall is seen at high elevations in the southern part of the basin and low elevations in the northern part of the basin.

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CAPEs
Contexto: a mudança faz parte da evolução e durante o ciclo de vida do software a maior parte dos custos está associada a esta tarefa. Poder fazer previsões sobre os potenciais efeitos causados através de uma mudança é uma forma de minimizar esses custos. Neste contexto, surge então a Análise de Impacto (AI) para medir o esforço que será necessário à mudança e para nortear como realizar a mesma da maneira mais adequada, entretanto o resultado gerado pode ser insuficiente, pois é possível existirem erros na identificação dos elementos possivelmente impactados, não contemplando todos os problemas existentes. Objetivo: este trabalho tem como objetivo investigar o que se tem feito para permitir um resultado mais preciso na AI, gerando um catálogo de benefícios e limitações e propondo um guia de boas práticas, respondendo as perguntas de pesquisa – O que se sabe atualmente sobre os benefícios e limitações da AI em mudança de software? O que se tem feito para minimizar os erros gerados na análise? Método: para a condução da pesquisa fez-se necessário a busca de dados na literatura, através de uma pesquisa exploratória, por meio de uma revisão sistemática com o intuito de investigar as técnicas de AI relatadas em pesquisas dos últimos anos. Resultados: de posse dos dados resultantes da extração e análise dos dados, os resultados são: (1) evidências de técnicas existentes que conseguiram minimizar imprecisões nos resultados da análise, (2) geração de catálogo de benefícios e limitações em seu uso e ainda, um guia de propostas de boas práticas a serem adotadas para permitir que a análise apresente melhores resultados. Conclusão: os resultados fornecem uma melhor visão dos fatores que precisam ser melhorados e, além disso, possibilitaram a criação de um guia de boas práticas. Com isto, pretendemos contribuir fornecendo uma melhor compreensão sobre as técnicas existentes, de que forma melhorias vêm sendo propostas e quais práticas permitem a maximização dos resultados gerados através da análise de impacto.
Context: Changing is part of the evolution and during the software lifecycle most cost is associated with this task. Being able to make predictions about the potential effects caused by a change is a way to minimize these costs. In this context, the Impact Analisys (IA) can be used to measure the effort it will take to change and to guide how to do the same in the most appropriate way, however the results generated may be insufficient, it is possible to detect errors on the elements identification possibly impacted, not including all the existing problems. Objective: This study has the objetive to investigate what has been done to allow more accurate result in IA , generating a catalog of benefits and limitations and proposing a guide of good practice by answering the research questions - What is currently known about the benefits and IA limitations on software changes? What has been done to minimize errors generated in the analysis? Methodology: To conduct this research it is necessary to search data in the literature, through an exploratory research using a systematic review that will allow an investigation about the most IA techniques used in the last years. Results: With the data generated through the extration and analisys of data, the results are: evidences of techniques which can be used to minimize inaccuracies in test results, (2) generation of catalog of benefits and limitations in its use and also a good practice guide to be adopted to allow the analysis present better results. Conclusion: the expected results will provide a better view of the factors that need to be improved and, besides, will enable the creation of a good practice guide. With this, we intend to contribute by providing a better understanding of existing techniques, how improvements have been proposed and what practices has been used to improve the results generated by impact analysis.

Organisational change within the NHS is a familiar event. This study explored the impact it has on staff in a clinical setting , and focuses on how staff experience such change. The study took place in two Child and Adolescent Mental Health Services, in two separate NHS Trusts in England. The exploration is qualitative, using grounded theory, and data collection is through semi-structured individual interviews completed at two points in time: the initial principal interview, and a follow up interview. Sampling is purposive and focused on staff within multi-disciplinary teams providing front-line clinical services. The study took place across two NHS Trusts to enhance reflexivity of the researcher, and methodological rigour. The interviews were audiorecorded and transcribed verbatim. The transcripts were analysed using grounded theory, underpinned by a social constructionist epistemology. A sample of 11 professional clinical staff members across two NHS Trusts volunteered to participate in the study, each completing two interviews. The findings are derived from 22 extended interview transcripts. Analysis of the data generated led to the conceptualisation of a process of being organisationally changed impacting on individuals' work identity and sense of self. There was a perceived mismatch between clinical and organisational values leading to incongruence, and re-valuing . Through the processes of deprofessionalisation and deskilling , participants experienced loss and diminishment of identity, and a process of becoming indistinct, culminating in a grieving of identity. Emergence from this was conceptualised as a process of reconciliation, which took the form of either accepting a sub-identity, or finding a way of preserving aspects of professional identity within organisational constraints. The process of being organisationally changed is developed and discussed, with use of illustrative data extracts. The findings illustrate the ways organisational change can impact on the "human dimension", as experienced by participants. This study contributes to an in depth exploration and understanding of organisational change impact on NHS clinical staff.

The subantarctic Prince Edward Islands (PEIs, 47◦S-38◦E) are classified as isolated and hostile regions, in which the terrestrial and marine ecosystems are relatively simple and extremely sensitive to perturbations. The island’s location, between the Subantarctic Front (SAF) and the Polar Front (PF), bordering the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) provides an ideal natural laboratory for studying how organisms, ecological processes and ecosystems respond to a changing climate in the Southern Ocean. Recent studies have proposed that climate changes reported at the islands may correspond in time to a southward shift of the ACC and in particular of the SAF. This southward migration in the geographic position of major ocean fronts is likely to coincide with dramatic changes in the distribution of species and total productivity of this region. However, there are other sources of variability in the hydrodynamic conditions around the PEIs: upstream of the islands, at the South West Indian Ridge (SWIR), a region of high eddy kinetic activity produces mesoscale features that directly irrigate the PEIs and may impact their marine environment. Based on satellite altimetry in that region, the positions of the SAF and PF were found to be highly variable at interannual and monthly time scales. They also revealed a significant long-term southward trend which was highlighted at the Southern Ocean scale. The mesoscale activity also showed an interannual and intra-annual variability and a decrease in eddy kinetic energy over 24 years was observed in the region. At a more local scale, we highlighted that the archipelago’s environment was impacted by the mesoscale features produced at the SWIR. The temperature, the mixed layer and velocities recorded between the islands were clearly affected by the eddies passing in the vicinity of the PEIs. Moreover, a large signal dominating the main current time series appeared to be a tidal signal, another important driver of variability of the circulation in between the two islands. On a second hand, an idealised model configuration was designed for the PEIs region to study the mesoscale eddy properties and the physical mechanisms of their formation at the ridge. The Eddy Available Potential Energy revealed a maximum of energy around 800 m depth, confirming the deep reaching characteristic of the eddy originated in the region and suggested the presence of a local energy source at this depth. This eddies activity was shown to be the result of a combination of barotropic and baroclinic instabilities occurring at the ridge. Finally, we investigated on the potential consequences of a southward shift of the SAF in the region of the islands. Because the model was idealised, it allowed us to simulate an SAF southward shift by shifting the initial and boundary conditions. The main result was the clear decrease of mesoscale activity in the region which could potentially impact the ecosystems of the PEIs.

Adaptation to past changes in the climate of Britain may be indicative of the way in which society will respond to future climate change. The long run costs associated with climate change are, once full adaptation has occurred, not obviously detrimental. Furthermore even if the frequency of 'extreme events' such as floods and storms increases it is not apparent that these will necessarily be as detrimental to society as they currently might seem since society in effect chooses its exposure to extreme events. Some extreme events such as hard frosts are likely to decrease in frequency. The thesis uses the theory of hedonic prices to examine the role of climate variables in explaining differences in average residential land prices and wage rates relating to 127 English and Welsh counties, Scottish regions, metropolitan areas and London boroughs. Substantial evidence is found in favour of the hypothesis that compensating land price differentials exist for climate variables. An alternative approach to estimating amenity values is to argue that households respond in part to differing levels of environmental amenities by altering their patterns of consumption. This phenomenon can be given a 'Household Production Function' interpretation. Given the assumption of 'demand dependency' between climate variables and marketed commodities it is possible to determine the amenity value of climate change from market data. Using cross country data for 60 countries the analysis points unambiguously to the existence of a 'climatic optimum'. The hedonic technique can also be used as a means of determining the value to British agriculture of a marginal change in climate. In the hedonic approach sale price differentials between land characterised by different climates is given an interpretation in terms of underlying productivity differences. Data characterising over 400 separate transactions in farmland is analysed and the value of marginal changes in climatic variables computed. The analysis suggests that the financial value of climate variables to farmers could in some cases be quite high and also that changes in seasonal patterns and the frequency of 'extreme events' are quite important. The impact of climate change on the chosen destinations of British tourists is also investigated. Destinations are characterised in terms of various 'attractors' including climate variables, travel costs and accommodation costs. Together these variables are used to explain the observed pattern of overseas travel in terms of a model based on the precept of utility maximisation. This approach permits the changes in consumer surplus following climate change to be predicted and effectively identifies the 'optimal' climate for generating tourism. It is argued that British tourists are likely to experience a large gain in welfare in the sense that the attributes of nearby (low cost) locations improve following climate change. Finally, information on marginal willingness to pay for climatic amenities is combined with predictions concerning the scale and direction of possible climate change over Britain in order to provide a money measure of the welfare impact of such changes. Because households appear to prefer a climate characterised by much higher temperatures than currently prevail over Britain households reap large gains from climate change.

Thesis (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, System Design & Management Program, 2000.
This electronic version was submitted by the student author. The certified thesis is available in the Institute Archives and Special Collections.
Includes bibliographical references (p. 81-82).
by David M. Tonaszuck.
S.M.

Climate change is a global issue and the effects on fish populations remain largely unknown. It is thought that climate change could affect fish at all levels of biological organisation, from cellular, individual, population and community. This thesis has taken a holistic approach to examine the ways in which climate change could affect fish from both tropical, marine ecosystems (Great Barrier Reef, Australia) and temperate, freshwater ecosystems (non-tidal River Thames, Britain). Aerobic scope of coral reef fish tested on the Great Barrier Reef was significantly reduced by just a 2°C rise in water temperature (31, 32 and 33°C, compared to the current summer mean of 29°C) due to increased resting oxygen consumption and an inability to increase the maximal oxygen uptake. A 0.3 unit decline in pH, representative of ocean acidification, caused the same percentage loss in aerobic scope as did a 3°C warming. Interfamilial differences in ability to cope aerobically with warming waters will likely lead to changes in the community structure on coral reefs with damselfish replacing cardinalfish. Concerning Britain, there is evidence of gradual warming and increased rainfall in winter months over a 150 year period, suggesting that British fish are already experiencing climate change. It was evident from an analysis of a 15 year dataset on fish populations in the River Thames, that cyprinid species displayed a different pattern in biomass and density to all the non-cyprinid fish population, suggesting that there will be interfamilial differences in responses to climate change. Using a Biological Indicator Approach on the three-spined stickleback, Gasterosteus aculeatus, a 2°C rise in water temperature resulted in a stress response at the cellular and whole organism level. A 6°C rise in temperature resulted in a stress response at the biochemical level (higher cortisol and glucose concentrations), cellular level (higher neutrophil: lymphocyte ratio) and whole organism level (higher ventilation rate and lowered condition factor, hepatosomatic index and growth). G. aculeatus is considered to be temperature tolerant; therefore these results indicate that climate change may prove to be stressful for more temperature-sensitive species. This study has demonstrated that climate change will have direct effects on fish populations, whether they are in temperate regions such as Britain or in tropical coral reefs, but with strong interfamilial differences in those responses.

It is widely understood that the environment is critical for the preservation of historic collections and interiors, if the environment is unsuitable it can create an increased risk of damage. In historic houses collections are usually on open display, and the room environment often has little control thus it is vulnerable to changes in the outdoor environment. The future outdoor environment is projected to change so the aim of this work has been to develop a widely applicable model to investigate the potential impact of climate change on historic interiors. A simple transfer function has been used to predict indoor temperature and relative humidity. The method is widely applicable and easily transferable between unheated buildings. It has been shown that it is important to assess each location and room on an individual basis. The method has been coupled with future climate output, from both the UKCP09 weather generator and the Hadley model, where data has been downscaled. The high resolution climate output allows for projections of future indoor environment. Future temperature is projected to increase in unheated historic houses around the UK and across Europe, although less than outdoors. Annual average relative humidity is largely unchanged in the future. Damage functions are used to determine the impact of the future indoor environment on materials. Typically temperature driven damage such as chemical degradation of paper and silk and insect pest activity increase in the future, whereas damage driven by relative humidity, such as salt transitions, depends upon the location assessed. In general risk of mould growth increases, and dimensional changes to wood decrease. The significance of future changes is an important consideration, requiring some further work. Annual averages are shown to hide seasonal changes, thus it is important to assess these, which can impact upon management strategies. At Knole it is projected that the summer humidity will decrease and the winter humidity increase slightly, which raises the risk of mould growth. The application of conservation heating has been shown to be less effective in future, but is still an effective strategy, although dehumidification may become more appropriate in some locations. The future energy use of conservation heating has a negligible change. There are a number of inherent uncertainties associated with the models used here. Specifically with climate modelling, future emissions are unknown and the physical processes of the climate are not fully understood. There is a statistical error associated with the transfer function, and the damage functions also have a number of related uncertainties. It is important to consider these when assessing future indoor projections. The results allow for long term planning by collection managers, to prepare for the impact of climate change, thus preserving heritage for future generations.

Airframe icing caused by the Supercooled Large Droplet (SLD) has been identified as a severe hazard of aviation. The impact of SLD in the in-flight icing condition remains unknown in multiple aspects. The impact velocity is very high, and most of the drop impacts are oblique. The accompanying drop splash invalidates the current engineering tools for design of the anti-icing system. Furthermore the involvement of supercooling in drop impact demands exploration. In the framework of the EU Project EXTICE and DFG project SFB - TRR 75, this thesis contributes to understanding of the impact of SLD by two experimental investigations, respectively on the effect of supercooling on drop impacts and the drop splash after high-speed impact. In the first experiment supercooled drops were created, and the drop impact with phase change was observed by both shadowgraph imaging and infrared imaging. The dynamic spreading diameter of the drop impact on aluminum surfaces was measured. Together with an analytical approach it was found that the phase change was negligible for drop impacts in typical icing conditions. The impact of supercooled drops on superhydrophobic surfaces revealed that the duration of the first stage of solidification in the drop impact was significantly shorter than that in a sessile liquid. Ice crystals formed in the supercooled water had a similar morphology to a snowflake. The drop receding on the hydrophobic surface was influenced by the contact temperature, which was measured by the infrared imaging. At low contact temperatures, asymmetrical receding was observed. In the second experiment high speed impacts of single drops with diameters ranging from 130μm to 200μm on dry surfaces of rapid motion were recorded by shadowgraph imaging up to 1Mfps. The target velocity varied from 10m/s to 63m/s. The impact surface had an inclination ranging from 0° to 75° in order to investigate the effects of oblique impact. Six outcomes of drop impact were identified: deposition, prompt splash, corona-corona splash, corona-prompt splash, single-side splash and the aerodynamic breakup. The aerodynamic breakup on a horizontal target was an interaction between the spreading lamella and the gas boundary layer. A qualitative force analysis made on the spreading lamella pointed out that in a corona splash the stabilizing factor is surface tension, and the destabilizing factors are aerodynamic force and inertial force. The lamella thickness and critical spreading velocity correlate with each other in a complementary manner, leading to non-monotonic threshold impact velocities at different impact angles. The velocity of the splashing jets and the asymmetric spreading radii were measured from video. The mass-loss coefficient was measured for the drop impact on horizontal targets.

The core analysis of this work is divided in three different but thematically related studies, analysing, first, how climate change policies can help to limiting global warming and one of its direct causes, the emission of greenhouse gases (GHG); second, how such policies can foster “green” technological change; and, third, how technological change can help to reach ambitious policy goals outlined in Europe’s 2020 climate and energy package. Respectively, in the first work with the title “Emission Abatement: Untangling the effects of the EU ETS and the Economic Crisis”, I seek to untangle the effects of the European Union Emission Trading System (EU EST) against the impact of the economic crisis 2008/2009 with respect to GHG emissions for sectors subject to the policy. Thereby, an Arellano-Bond regression is performed due to the dynamic character of the estimation equation. One of the major conclusions of this chapter is, that the EU ETS was only responsible for a minor part of emission abatement whilst the economic downturn accounted for the lion’s share which led to the built-up of an excess of emission allowances in the market and hampered policy stringency under the EU ETS. In the second study “Policy Stringency under the European Union Emission Trading System and its Impact on Technological Change in the Energy Sector”, therefore, I am interested to analysis how this negative evolution, on the one side, and an increase of stringency, on the other, affects innovative activity. For this reason, I relate two measures for policy stringency, namely the certificate oversupply in the market and the transition from phase I to phase II under the EU ETS, to “green” technological change approximated by climate change mitigation technology (CCMT) patent counts. Thereby, I am interested to measure the effects of these two different but not mutually exclusive impacts on the estimated number of patents in my data sample. For this empirical exercise, I make use of a panel negative binomial estimator due to the distributional characteristics of the patent data in my data frame. The main results for this study is, that policy stringency matters in order to spur technological change. Thereby, greater stringency measured in the transition from phase I to phase II is related to an increase in the predicted number of patents. On the other side, decreasing stringency, measured by the excess supply of certificates in the market, is related to a decrease in the predicted number of patents. In the last work “Climate Change Mitigation and the Role of Technologic Change: Impact on selected headline targets of Europe’s 2020 climate and energy package” an impact assessment of these CCMTs is performed with respect to different policy goal measures of Europe’s 2020 climate and energy package. Thereby, I relate CCMT patents for energy generation and distribution to the goal of a 20% share of renewables in gross final energy consumption and well CCMTs to total final energy consumption and to final energy consumption in the transport sector, respectively, to the goal of a 20% increase in energy efficiency. As a regression method, a panel fixed effects approach is chosen. Thereby, the main observation is, that these technologies can make a different if goals are reached or not and, that penetration for final users differs among goals and sectors. In the last chapter, a summary of the obtained results is presented and the respective policy implications for the EU ETS and the development and deployment of CCMTs.

Software developers must produce software that can be changed without the risk of degrading the software architecture. One way to address software changes is to classify their causes and effects. A software change classification mechanism allows engineers to develop a common approach for handling changes. This information can be used to show the potential impact of the change. The goal of this research is to develop a change classification scheme that can be used to address causes of architectural degradation. This scheme can be used to model the effects of changes to software architecture. This research also presents a study of the initial architecture change classification scheme. The results of the study indicated that the classification scheme was easy to use and provided some benefit to developers. In addition, the results provided some evidence that changes of different types (in this classification scheme) required different amounts of effort to implement.

M. Tech. (Department of Civil Engineering and Building, Faculty of Engineering and Technology), Vaal University of Technology
Growth in land development in South Africa resulted in large increase in traffic volumes. A Traffic Impact Assessment (TIA), as a traffic engineering tool, is commonly used to assess the possible effects of a land development project on the transportation and traffic system. During the TIA process, capacity analysis is performed to indicate the measures of effectiveness of the intersection. Intersection capacity analysis in South Africa by engineers is done on the basis of default values of the Peak Hour Factor (PHF) provided by the Highway Capacity Manual (HCM) or limited traffic counts. However, the default value of PHF may be significantly affected by new developments in the neighbourhood of the intersection. This study aimed at investigating the impact land-use change has on the existing intersection PHF, thus predicting values per land-use type. Intersections with traffic counts conducted before and after land-use change in vicinity were selected and investigated. The results showed that change in land-use has an impact on the existing PHF. They also assist in identifying the appropriate intersections to predict the PHF per land-use type. Intersections were identified and analysed, and this led to the development of a design chart showing the predicted PHF per land-use type selected and measures to consider during traffic analysis. Intersection capacity analysis was performed to compare the results using the predicted PHF and the HCM default values. The results showed that traffic flow rate was adjusted by up to 26% when using the default values, 0.92 and 0.95. The results also showed that the default values could overestimate the volume to capacity ratio and the average delay by up to 15% and 35%, respectively. It was then concluded that the use of HCM default values of the PHF for every land-use type will have an effect of the final roadway design results. The computed PHF values for each land-use type were then recommended to be used to ensure fairness and consistency in traffic analysis.

Managing change is of critical importance in organisations. Communication during the change process has been the subject of considerable and highly contested academic and managerial debate. In this study, The Impact of Participative Communication on Organisational Cultural Change: Two Local Government Cases of Change, communication during the change process was closely examined to see how, if at all, participative processes impact upon the adoption of change. As a result of this research a ‘Ladder of Employee Participation in Change Management’ was developed, to better understand the nature of participative communication and provide clarity for change practitioners who develop change communication plans. This study asked the question: ‘How does participative communication impact on change management receptiveness?’ It looked at the type and style of communication deployed during change, how it was disseminated, how it impacted on employees, and the overall effectiveness of the change management strategy. The study drew on Public Relations constructs of dialogical, two-way symmetrical communication, as well as participative decision-making processes, and analysed data obtained from two change management case studies in the local government sector. A mixed-methods approach was used for collecting data by means of interviews and a culture-assessment tool. This research adds to existing knowledge by providing a clearer understanding of the nature of participative communication during the change management process. The ‘Ladder of Employee Participation in Change Management’ will be of particular interest to change practitioners, who will find it a valuable tool for developing communication plans that align with change processes and enable dissemination of unified messages across the entire organisation.

This thesis presents the development and application of a downscaling framework for multi site simulation of daily rainfall. The rainfall simulation is achieved in two stages. First, rainfall occurrences at multiple sites are downscaled, which is followed by the generation of daily rainfall amounts at each site identified as wet. A continuous weather state based nonparametric downscaling model conditional on atmospheric predictors and a previous day average rainfall state is developed for simulation of multi site rainfall occurrences. A nonparametric kernel density approach is used for simulation of rainfall amounts at individual sites conditional on atmospheric variables and the previous day rainfall amount. The proposed model maintains spatial correlation of rainfall occurrences by simulating concurrently at all stations and of amounts by using random innovations that are spatially correlated yet serially independent. Temporal dependence is reproduced in the occurrence series by conditioning on previous day average wetness fraction and assuming the weather states to be Markovian, and in the amount series by conditioning on the previous day rainfall amount. The seasonal transition is maintained by simulating rainfall on a day-to-day basis using a moving window formulation. The developed downscaling framework is calibrated using the relevant atmospheric variables and rainfall records of 30 stations around Sydney, Australia. Results indicate a better representation of the spatio-temporal structure of the observed rainfall as compared to existing alternatives. Subsequently, the framework is applied to predict plausible changes in rainfall in warmer conditions using the same set of atmospheric variables for future climate obtained as a General Circulation Model simulation. While the case studies presented are restricted to a specific region, the downscaling model is designed to be useful in any generic catchment modelling and management activity and/or for investigating possible changes that might be experienced by hydrological, agricultural and ecological systems in future climates.

During a three year field study (1997-2000) vegetation assemblages, collective vegetation variables, traits of dominant populations and hydrological and hydrochemical variables were repeat-sampled within seven wetland sites across Scotland and northern England. These ranged from the Irish Marshes, Inverness-shire in the north, to Tarn Moss, Cumbria at the southern extreme. Sampling was conducted at a total of fifty-six permanent sample stations located along a total of eleven transects. Vegetation groupings were defined using multivariate analyses, and were classified as various fen, mire, and swamp NVC community types. The various groups were characterised by the values for the range of variables measured, and significant differences were seen between a number of these variables for different groupings. In addition, certain separate groupings with the same community classification were also seen to have significant variations between them in terms of trophic status, and canopy height and biomass values. Collective vegetation variables and dominant population trait values were successfully predicted from physical and chemical variables measured within the groundwater and substrate during 1999. A number of specific models incorporating relatively large numbers of predictor variables were proposed alongside more general models incorporating fewer predictor variables. The greatest predictive power with R2 = 0.67 (p<0.001) for a model predicting stem density (m-2). Conversely, vegetation variables proved useful for predicting characteristics of the groundwater environment, for which specific and general models were against proposed. In this instance, the greatest predictive power was R2 = 0.79 (p<0.001) for a model predicting minimum water table level (i.e. maximum level of drawdown). The models were tested using data collected during 2000 from repeat sites and independent sites. Whilst some of the variables were predicted within noisy limits, predicted values generally corresponded well to observed values.

This thesis explores, from a cultural perspective, the organisational change process resulting from a string of take-overs within Blazehard, a tyre manufacturing company in Spain. It looks at the effects of these changes in the way people reconstruct the organisation and their role as its employees through the stories they share. The first part of the thesis elaborates on the uses of culture as a conceptual tool for observing organisations and, especially, on the need to account for the complementary processes of continuity and change in social experience. The thesis proposes historical recollections, as cultural manifestations, as a vehicle that reproduces and challenges a cultural order through their reproduction and generation within that order. They articulate a space where the new and the uncertain can be made safe through their integration into the traditional and the known, thereby providing possibilities for permanence and security as well as for innovation. The research combines different methods of data gathering - interviews, documents and group discussions - and of analysis - narratives and discourses to facilitate the exploration of both the commonalties and the diverse interests and perspectives existing among Blazehard employees. The exploration of the stories shows how they compose a collectively reproduced narrative that guides -and therefore constrains- employees' historical recollections. This referential narrative is the vehicle through which people reproduce but also challenge their cultural order in the organisation. As such, storytelling is presented as the constant process of reformulation that opens possibilities for individual development within the cultural constraints that the organisation imposes on its members. The results suggest when people try to make sense of a change situation both turn to their own experiential resources and use the symbols that their cultural environment provides. It is in the tension between the two, that the conditions of fluidity and ambiguity required for a cultural transition can be created.

In the digital age, there has been a phenomenal rise in the number of photos people capture, share, and manipulate—a trend that shows no sign of slowing. Furthermore, research shows that photos—authentic and manipulated—are powerful; they can change people’s memories for distant and recent experiences, beliefs about past actions, intentions for future actions, and judgements. Yet there is currently limited research exploring the effects of digital photography on memory, cognition, and behaviour. Part One of this thesis comprises of a program of research that examines people’s ability to discriminate between authentic and manipulated images. Advances in digital technology mean that the creation of visually compelling photographic fakes is growing at an incredible speed. Despite the prevalence of manipulated photos in our everyday lives, there is a lack of research directly investigating the applied question of people’s ability to detect photo forgeries. The research in Chapter 3 addresses this question. Across two experiments, people showed an extremely limited ability to detect and locate manipulations of real-world scenes. Chapters 4 and 5 explore ways that might help people to detect image forgeries. Specifically, the research investigates the extent to which people can identify inconsistencies in shadows and reflections. The results suggest that people are reasonably insensitive to shadow and reflection information and indicate that such image properties might not help people to distinguish between authentic images and manipulated ones. Part Two of this thesis examines how the act of taking photos can affect people’s memory. Digital technology has revolutionised the ease with which people capture photos and accordingly there has been a remarkable rise in the number of photos that people take. The results of five experiments and a mini meta-analysis suggest that taking photos has only a small, or plausibly no, effect on people’s memories.

Thesis advisor: Andy Hargreaves
Reform has been difficult at all levels of schooling but secondary schools have proved the most intractable to change (Sarason, 1990). Some of the reasons include the persistence of long-standing conventions, the struggle between competing interests, the size and complexity of the organizations being changed, and ironically the negative impact of reforms that are designed to bring about change. Creating equity among the nation's students requires rethinking and questioning long-term and ingrained identities. This change is threatening to the status quo and pressures many to actively preserve and perpetuate cherished beliefs and practices. The objective to close the achievement gap and "provide all children with the kind of schooling once offered only to a small elite" (Meier, 2002, p. 3) is thwarted by a number of factors, one of which is the factory-style structures and models of classic schooling (Cuban, 1984; Meier, 2002; Oakes & Lipton, 2002; Sarason, 1990; Tyack & Tobin, 1994). This is particularly apparent in conventional high schools which have maintained their existing epistemologies for long periods of time, holding steadfast to the "traditional grammar of schooling" (Tyack & Tobin, 1994). To understand why and how traditional secondary schools choose and maintain their values and structures, and how that illuminates educational change; this dissertation explores a detailed historical case study of how a non-traditional high school underwent a fundamental change by becoming a high school representative of the traditional grammar of schooling. Research explored the technological, political, and cultural forces that influenced the change and what these forces tell us about educational change in general. Findings revealed that successful reforms were initiated at the grass-roots level by the principals but only within the parameters allowed by the school community. External reforms from the district and state government were rarely sustained over time. The changing economy, the politics, and culture of the island directly impacted change initiatives and contributed to the school's drift towards an increasingly traditional grammar
Thesis (PhD) — Boston College, 2010
Submitted to: Boston College. Lynch School of Education
Discipline: Educational Administration and Higher Education

This thesis investigates the form, function and development of assembly practices in the Ridings of Yorkshire, a region of significant Scandinavian settlement from the ninth century onwards. It investigates the extent to which these demographic and cultural changes affected existing assembly practices and also the degree to which one can identify the introduction of Nordic conciliar mores. In particular, it focuses on the assembly sites and territories associated with the hundreds and wapentakes outlined in Domesday Book. These are considered in terms of their emergence and context in early medieval law, their relations to earlier accounts of assemblies and their subsequent reception in historical scholarship. The forms and distributions of both documented and assembly-attesting place-names are assessed. These demonstrate significant Anglo-Saxon and Scandinavian influence on the nomenclature. Consideration of the immediate form of the documented and place-name attested assemblies has revealed both variety and patterning, not least in terms of the recurrent cultic elements associated with trees, crosses, and plausibly mounds, each of which often served as the monumental focus of a given assembly. Consideration of the assembly territories demonstrated differing ways of framing the landscape, likely reflecting settlement and agricultural routines but also at times providing evidence for the abrupt imposition of territorial schemata. The most vital finding is the widespread prevalence of assembly in ancillary situations to significant settlements and estate-centres. The use of prominent ridgelines above and apart from settlement in the East Riding shows that there was a clear symbolic role to this separation of activities. Assemblies on estate borders appear to reflect analogous practice. Finally, Scandinavian influence was found at all levels in the surviving evidence for assembly practices in the Northern Danelaw, but this almost certainly reflects active engagement with existing practices rather than the imposition of new customs on a newly settled land.

This research examines and explains the links between safety culture and communication. Safety culture is a concept that in recent years has gained prominence but there has been little applied research conducted to investigate the meaning of the concept in 'real life' settings. This research focused on a Train Operating Company undergoing change in a move towards privatisation. These changes were evident in the management of safety, the organisation of the industry and internally in their management. The Train Operating Company's management took steps to improve their safety culture and communications through the development of a cascade communication structure. The research framework employed a qualitative methodology in order to investigate the effect of the new system on safety culture. Findings of the research were that communications in the organisation failed to be effective for a number of reasons, including both cultural and logistical problems. The cultural problems related to a lack of trust in the organisation by the management and the workforce, the perception of communications as management propaganda, and asyntonic communications between those involved, whilst logistical problems related to the inherent difficulties of communicating over a geographically distributed network. An organisational learning framework was used to explain the results. It is postulated that one of the principal reasons why change, either to the safety culture or to communications, did not occur was because of the organisation's inability to learn. The research has also shown the crucial importance of trust between the members of the organisation, as this was one of the fundamental reasons why the safety culture did not change, and why safety management systems were not fully implemented. This is consistent with the notion of mutual trust in the HSC (1993) definition of safety culture. This research has highlighted its relevance to safety culture and its importance for organisational change.

The health risks posed by hot weather are growing as increasingly frequent extreme weather is brought about by climate change. People spend upwards of 80% of time indoors and so human health is largely dependent on the internal environment of buildings. In the building industry engineers currently design buildings for high-energy performance by maximising heat retention, and whilst this may be effective in cold winters, it can lead to unbearable indoor conditions in hot summers. Thermal comfort inside buildings is a well-discussed topic both in industry and academia, but absolute peak thresholds, especially for heat stress still require development. In this thesis the outcomes of research into the effects of current and future hot weather on the heat stress of occupants inside buildings are presented. Hot weather data from the current climate and mortality rates are compared and several temperature metrics are analysed with respect to health risk forecasting performance, so that peak threshold limits for human health indoors are established for the building design industry. Reference weather data used in building simulations for health assessment is currently chosen based on air temperature alone. In this thesis new reference weather data is created for near-extreme and extreme weather and for current and future climates, based on the peak threshold metric research and future weather analysis. By 2050 hot weather reference years currently occurring once every seven years could become an annual occurrence, and by 2080 extreme hot weather reference years currently occurring once in twenty-one years could become an annual occurrence. Computational fluid dynamics is then used to simulate the internal heat stress inside a building model, and a surrogate model is created to emulate heat stress levels for full calendar years of future climates for several UK locations. It is envisaged that the results presented in this thesis will help inform the industry development of new reference data and aid better building design.

Environmentally-induced migration is a key issue for many parts of the world. Bangladesh is a clearly defined region where such a social problem could take place due to a range of environmental processes. Bangladesh, especially the delta section, has already experienced both rapid environmental change from natural disasters such as tropical cyclones and floods, and more slow change due to rising sea levels and river bank erosion. This thesis examines the physical background to environmental change in Bangladesh and explores, through 355 questionnaires and the same number of in-depth interviews, the social impact of this, both in the regions directly affected, but also in the internal migration destinations. Most of the country’s rivers have shown discharge increases over the last few decades; this is particularly notable on the main river system at Bahadurabad through which 60% of the discharge passes. However, the mean flow downstream at Harding Bridge shows statistically significant decreases in the dry season due to the construction of the Farakka dam in the 1970s. The frequency, and severity, of monsoon flooding has been increasing in recent decades, in line with the general increase in river flows. These changes increase the frequency of river bank erosion. As a case study the region of Mehendiganj on the main channel is chosen, where the eastern end of the island is eroding rapidly, at a rate of ~3.2 km2yr-1 during the period 1972-2012. From interviews in both this region and the coastal region subject to threat from cyclones and storm surges, coping mechanisms of local people to environmental change, including displacement and migration, whether temporary or permanent, are investigated. The differential response of people remaining near their homes, moving to regional centres, or migration to major cities is investigated. The impact of increasing migration on the destination communities is also considered. The current study provides evidence that environmental change directly causes migration. Environmental change is more strongly related to short distance migration. Long-distance moves are generally affected by other drivers while environmental drivers are secondary or background drivers in this case. Long-distance moves are generally undertaken for financial and social reasons, in particular where there is a pre-established migrant network. Thus, the displaced poor were found to not move far, because of a combination of factors relating to the social and economic advantages of re-establishing themselves locally. However, many respondents were found to have been displaced multiple times, which increases the probability that they will be forced further afield, most likely to urban areas, as environmental refugees. The study also presents a new understanding of the role of environmental change in causing migration and its relation to societal consequences. Therefore, the concept of vulnerability to environmental change, adaptive capacity and migration process has been applied. The study developed vulnerability Index (VI) to assess environmental change vulnerability in the four coastal rural sub-districts and the two cities in central region. The VI compared the various regions’ vulnerability to adaptive capacity, sensitivity and exposure and differential vulnerability. The results suggest that both permanent and non-permanent migration processes have a close relation to vulnerability and non-permanent migration has a close link to adaptive capacity. The study found that the sub districts of Shyamnagar and Mehendiganj may be more vulnerable in terms of sensitivity and exposure and less adaptive capacity, whilst Mehendiganj is more vulnerable in terms of exposure to hazards than other sub-districts. These two vulnerable regions also have shown higher number of migrants, from Mehendiganj as permanent migration whilst from Shyamnagar as non-permanent migration. Therefore, migration is a significant approach for reducing vulnerability to environmental change by increasing adaptive capacity. Similarly, as migration destinations Dhaka is more vulnerable in terms of sensitivity, exposure and adaptive capacity than Comilla. The findings of this research confirmed that poor migrants are the most vulnerable in the city. This group has less adaptive capacity than old migrants or poor local people due to low level earning, limited access to resources and location and settlement pattern.

This thesis is composed of three essays on the market perception to strategy change announcements. Specifically, it tries to investigate the market reaction around the strategy change announcement date and these event firms’ pre-announcement and long-term performance. It also focuses on the content analysis of FACTIVA news and analyst reports that are about the strategy changes. Chapter Two shows that in line with the need for new strategies, firms with strategy change announcements have higher debt, less cash, worse operating performance, lower market expectations while still exhibit higher growth prospects, make higher investment and have higher R&D relative to publicly listed matched firms. This chapter also finds that strategy change announcements are associated with positive short-term abnormal returns. This suggests that market perceives the announcement as good news for the firms’ long-term development. Further at one-year after the announcement date, event firms exhibit better operating performance, potential long-term growth prospects, improved liquidity and are less leveraged. In Chapter Three, my findings show that higher occurrence of positive (negative) words in FACTIVA news are associated with more positive (negative) short-term stock performance. Furthermore, the effects of negative tones are greater relative to positive tones, especially when strategy change announcements are less informative. Increasing weights in positive (negative) tones are associated with higher (lower) abnormal returns. When comparing FACTIVA news with the subsequent annual reports, positive tones exhibit similar market reaction while negative words in annual reports tend to have higher market impact. Chapter Four finds that higher occurrence of positive (negative) words in analyst reports exhibit more positive (negative) stock returns. In fact, the market responds more strongly to negative tones compared to positive tones in analyst reports. Increasing weights in negative words are associated with more negative stock performance. This suggests that analysts are particularly important in propagating the potential risks and challenges related to the strategy changes. Furthermore, this chapter shows that market participants pay more attention to positive tones in analyst reports when strategy change announcements are more informative or supplemented with more forward-looking statements. In contrast, market participants focus more on negative tones when firms do not disclose adequate useful information to the public. In addition, positive (negative) tones in analyst reports are associated with more positive (negative) market reaction relative to annual reports.

The Project on Government Oversight listed 632 reported acts of government contractor misconduct since 2007 that resulted in settlements or fines totaling $41.95 billion in the government contracting industry. Government contracting officials changed the Federal Acquisition Regulation (FAR) in 2009 to reduce acts of misconduct. The purpose of this causal-comparative study was to discover if the change to the FAR in 2009 significantly reduced the rate of reported contractor misconduct and to investigate the impact of the change on government contractor ethics business processes. Deterrence theory guided this study of how the change to the FAR in 2009 impacted the rate of reported government contractor misconduct (dependent variable) and government contractor ethics business processes (dependent variable). Data were collected on the top 100 government contractors over 2 separate 3-year time periods (independent variable), 2006 through 2008 and 2010 through 2012, before and after the change to the FAR. Data extracted from official government databases and government oversight organizations included annual contract awards (n = 600), contractor misconduct reports (n = 600), and contractor ethics business process records (n = 600). A Wilcoxon Signed-Ranks test resulted in 2 findings. First, the rate of reported government contractor misconduct was not significantly reduced by the change to the FAR in 2009, z = -0.949, p = .34, r = -.072. Second, government contractor ethics business processes were significantly impacted by the change to the FAR in 2009, z = -12.263, p < .001, r = -.763. This study may contribute to positive social change by informing federal contracting authorities and corporate executives that implementing ethics business processes did not reduce misconduct. These findings call for further action to improve corporate ethical behavior.

Forecasted changes to climate and land use were used to model variations in the streamflow characteristics of Occoquan watershed and water quality in the Occoquan reservoir. The combination of these two driving forces has created four themes and an integrated complexly-linked watershed-reservoir model was used to run the simulations. Two emission scenarios from the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), along with four General Circulation Models (GCMs) by using two statistical downscaling methods, were applied to drive the Hydrological Simulation Program - Fortran (HSPF) and CE-QUAL-W2 (W2) in two future time periods (2046-2065 and 2081-2100). Incorporation of these factors yielded 68 simulation models which were compared with historical streamflow and water quality data from the late 20th century. Climate change is projected to increase surface air temperature and precipitation depth in the study area in the future. Using climate change only, an increase in high and median flows and decrease in low flows are projected. Changes in flow characteristics are more pronounced when only future land use changes are considered, with increases in high, median and low flows. Under the joint examination of the driving forces, an amplifying effect on the high flows and median flows observed. In contrast, climate change is projected to dampen the extreme increases in the low flows created by the land use change. Surface water temperatures are projected to increase as a result of climate change in the Occoquan reservoir, while these changes are not very noticeable under the effect of land use change only. It is expected that higher water temperatures will promote decreased oxygen solubility and greater heterotrophy. Moreover, longer anoxic conditions are projected at the bottom of the reservoir. Results indicate that higher water temperature will increase the denitrifying capacity of the reservoir, especially during summer months, further reducing the nitrate concentration in the reservoir.
PHD

The implementation of reduced-impact logging (RIL) in Sabah is recognised in the literature as an activity to reduce the environmental impact of timber harvest activities, thus reducing carbon entering the atmosphere. With the adoption of the Paris Agreement in 2015, modalities for its application as a project-based activity under the Climate Convention have yet to be developed. Investigations on both, its potential to reduce carbon from being released into the atmosphere in Sabah, specifically, and its modalities as a project-based activity under the Climate Convention in Malaysia, broadly, are warranted. This thesis addresses a set of research questions related to modalities for its inclusion under the Climate Convention, temporal and spatial responses of the forest after its implementation, to the investigation of activity-specific modalities, and their effectiveness, and its associated finance under the Climate Convention in Malaysia. The improvement of the forest activities under the Climate Convention are conceptualised through the Hierarchy of Production Forest Management (HoPFM), i.e., a modular framework defining the progression of the forest industry through demonstrable benefits. The conceptual framework begins from the basic legal and regulatory frameworks that govern forest management activities, towards sustainable forest management as the ideology of the Framework, designed to recognise both local, and global, approaches to forest management, while highlighting the need for balanced considerations of environmental, social and economic values. Through the Framework, the components of RIL in Sabah are discussed, relative to the modalities of the Climate Convention. Since he inception of the GIZ programme to improve forest management systems in the Deramakot forest reserve, there has been limited research on its recovery after RIL activities. Data on aboveground alive tree biomass and deadwood necromass was collected, and tested against 'harvest intensity', and 'time since harvest', to assess the temporal and spatial variability of forest responses, both within diameter classes, and major functional species classes of 'dipterocarp' and 'non-dipterocarp'. It was identified that 'harvest intensity' was found to be affecting forest recovery, relative to 'time since harvest', which was similarly identified for 'dipterocarp' species, relative to 'non-dipterocarp', respectively. The few significant changes detected indicate that long-term periods of analysis are required to identify consistent trends over-time. Since the mandate of the RIL policy in Sabah, conventional harvest activities are no longer eligible to be practiced in commercial production reserves. Therefore, to measure changes in carbon between the practices under the Climate Convention, a baseline needs to be developed, where conventional harvest activities were historically, the only form of harvest practice. An analysis of the literature was undertaken to estimate the difference between the practices, whereby broad impact classes of ‘infrastructure created’, and ‘harvest damage’, were identified. In its application, the ‘crediting’ approach is applied, whereby a benchmark is set, counterfactually, to estimate carbon that would be released without RIL activities. A number of carbon reductions are withheld from issuance into the market, to create a buffer between actually and potential issuance. The approach is conservative, to account for changes in policy and project-based circumstances, which may impact the number of carbon reductions issued in a project timeframe. RIL is currently implemented in the commercial production reserves, however it its effectiveness to reduce carbon from entering the atmosphere under the Climate Convention in Malaysia is unclear. Representing extremes along a range of anthropogenic disturbance through RIL activities, data from RIL activities was collected in a lower montaine forest harvested once, and a lowland forest, harvested multiple times. Both areas were tested against the carbon baseline, to represent conventional harvest practices in Sabah. The estimates were comparable to literature values, with RIL activities found to reduce carbon from entering the atmosphere. The variability in the accumulation of carbon stocks of aboveground alive tree biomass was identified as an important consideration in the trends observed. The condition of the forest at the time of harvest, i.e., primary or severely degraded logged-over forest, was found to impact carbon stocks immediately after harvest and the rate of carbon accumulation over time. The variability of the result supports the concept of conservativeness, as advocated for project-based activities, under the Climate Convention. As a signatory Party, Malaysia is developing the necessary institutional infrastructure to facilitate project-based activities under the Climate Convention. Investigating RIL as a nationally appropriate mitigation action is undertaken, where distinctions are made between its integration at the national level, and its implementation at the sub-national level. Drawing on experiences from Sabah, implementing RIL as a project-based activity under the Climate Convention is broadly applicable to all States in Malaysia, whereby monitoring, reporting and verification at the sub-national level may be implemented through the existing domestic forest certification standard in Malaysia. At the current price of carbon over a 35-year harvest cycle, RIL is estimated to be approximately at the break-even price for its implementation in Sabah. Relative to the cost of restoring severely degraded forests harvested through conventional practices in Sabah, implementing RIL is financially viable. The knowledge gained by investigating RIL as a sub-national approach may be useful to assist Malaysia to meet their intended national emission reduction targets under the Climate Convention. This thesis aims to improve our knowledge of the application of RIL in logged-over forest of Sabah, and its applicability as a project-based activity under the Climate Convention in Malaysia. Several research questions were raised, to contextualise the modalities of RIL in Sabah and the institutional framework in Malaysia, relative to the architecture of the Climate Convention. It highlights the need for a systematic approach to gather observations on forest carbon dynamics and their integration into larger carbon accounting frameworks, to improve our understanding of the potential of RIL to contribute to reduce carbon emissions into the atmosphere from the forest sector.

Developing countries have been rapidly urbanising over the last decades, resulting in major environmental pressures and increased vulnerability to natural disasters. A complex combination of factors, including climate change, land use change, poorly implemented regulation and a lack of integrated planning has often resulted in environmental degradation and disproportionate impacts of natural disasters affecting millions worldwide, particularly in tropical cities. The main aim of this study is to understand the effects of land-use and climate change on flooding in the Greater Port-Harcourt watershed. The specific research objectives were: to understand the historical and future land use /land cover changes; to understand the magnitude of change in hydrologic and hydraulic conditions due to land-use and climate changes; to assess the influence of different forest mitigation scenarios on peak-discharge; and to make recommendations on how to improve future planning using insights from this study. Methodologically, the post-classification change detection method was applied to examine the extent and nature of historical LULC changes using remotely sensed data. Future LULC changes were estimated by superimposing the 2060 digitised Masterplan map on the year 2003 baseline imagery. Hydrologic changes were assessed using HEC-HMS model, while changes in the hydraulic condition were assessed using HEC-RAS model. Model output was further used to map flood hazards, flood zones and damage potential. Priority areas and infrastructure at risk were identified by means of their location in flood zones and exposure to floods with high damage potential. On the extent of change, this study revealed that urbanisation and loss of agricultural land had been the dominant and intensive land use change in the watershed. Urbanisation is projected to almost double its 2003 extent by 2060 and is likely to remain the dominant force of land use change. On the nature of change, this study found that urban land was the most dynamic in terms of gross gain and net change. It exhibited the grossest gain (about 9% of the watershed) and the grossest loss leading to a high net change of about 8.6%. In fact, the most prominent transition was the conversion of agricultural land (about 422km2) to urban land, and roughly 93.3% of all conversions to urban land resulted from agricultural land. On the process of change, urban land mainly experienced a net-type of change (change in quantity), whereas changes in agricultural land was more of a swap-type of change (change in location). Importantly, the study reveals that the impact on flood flow was historically significant (about 68%) and is projected to amplify in future, however, these changes are largely attributed to increased storm size. Urbanisation is likely to have little or no impact on annual maximum peak flow at the watershed scale; however, urbanisation is projected to have a considerable impact on peak flow in a number of subbasins, which could have severe implications for flash flooding in those subbasins. Similarly, afforestation could have little or no impact on future maximum peak flow when assessed at the watershed scale. Although some subbasins experienced changes in peak flow, the effect of forest is variable. The study concludes that although the impact of urbanisation is projected to be insignificant at the watershed scale, it could also increase flood risk due to increasing developments in floodplains and channel encroachment. Priority infrastructure and areas requiring urgent flood risk management include the Port-Harcourt seaports, Onne seaport, the University of Science and Technology and cement factory. Priority areas in the Masterplan are mainly in the south (Phase 3), comprising of the Air force base and the residential area near Onne seaport. Lastly, approximately 8.1km and 189m of road and rail network are at greater risk of flooding by means of their exposure to floods with the highest damage potential. Based on this study, I have furthered understanding by showing that the transition to urban land category was dominated by net changes (i.e. changes in quantity). I have also furthered understanding by showing that substantial changes in future urban land-use may not have significant effect on flood parameters. My main contribution to knowledge is that despite the high rate of urbanisation in the GPH watershed and its minimal impact on flooding (which could be due the large size of the storm and watershed), urbanisation could still increase flood risk due to greater exposure of elements at risk in the flood plains to damaging floods. Based on the results, the study recommends that the development authorities should integrate both structural measures (mainly for flood defence around existing developments) and non-structural measures (primarily for future developments). For flood risk management research, this study recommends that conclusions about the effects of urbanisation should not be made solely on the basis of changes in hydrology and river hydraulics, however researchers should also consider the exposure of important elements at risk within the floodplains under study to better understand the effects of urbanisation. Moreover, to better understand urbanisation effects on runoff dynamics in other watersheds, this study recommends that research efforts should be concerted in understanding subbasin-scale changes given that the effects of urbanisation are more pronounced in smaller basins.

The purpose of this study was to examine the changes in accounting instruction recommended by the Accounting Education Change Commission (AECC) at 11 grant recipient schools and 11 similar non-grant recipient schools randomly selected. The AECC suggested that accounting education should include more communication skills, interpersonal skills, and critical- thinking and problem-solving skills. The AECC also recommended that more emphasis be placed on teaching rather than research. To measure implementation of the recommended changes, a four part Accounting Instruction Change Scale was developed. The pilot study, (n=34) revealed that the AICS did not distinguish among the four factors considered. This finding was confirmed in the actual study. Surveys were mailed to 438 subjects, 249 to grant school and 189 to non-grant school accounting faculty, of which 163 surveys were returned, 146 were usable. Using Cronbach's alpha, the reliability of the overall Accounting Instruction Change Scale, as determined by the pilot study, was .92. Reliability, using the Cronbach's alpha, for the final study data was .91. Significant differences were found between respondents and non-respondents for both grant and non-grant schools. Differences in work experience, instruction in educational psychology, and instructional methodology were found to be significant. There were also significant differences between the early respondents and the late respondents in instruction in educational psychology and instructional methodology. Significant differences between the early non-grant school respondents and the late non-grant school respondents were also found in the length of time teaching accounting, length of time at the current institution, and age. These significant differences indicate the sample respondents are a unique group, and any inferences made from this sample to the general population should be made with caution. For the correlations of all variables, Predisposition to Change, Adoption-Proneness, refereed publicaitons, non-refereed publications, work experience, educational psychology, instructional methodology, membership in professional organizations, gender, and age, the the correlations ranged from a high of .497 between the Adoption-Proneness Scale and the Accounting Instruction Change Scale to a low of .001 between age and instruction in educational psychology. In the full Regression Model, the variables included accounted for 40.8% of the variance in the AICS. The regression analysis shows the Predisposition to Change Scale scores and Adoption Proneness Scale scores to be significant expanatory variables concerning predicting the score of the Accounting Instruction Change Scale score. No other significant variables surfaced in the regression analysis indicating institutional membership did not predict AICS score.
Ph. D.

Arctic sea ice loss is a robust feature of observations and of climate model projections. Amplified winter lower tropospheric warming in the Arctic relative to the global mean is associated with this ice loss. Many recent studies have addressed the possible effects of these changes on the midlatitude atmospheric circulation, particularly in the North Atlantic. These studies suggest responses including an equatorward jet shift, a negative annular mode response and changes in Rossby wave behaviour. However, there is disagreement on the magnitude, significance and even sign of these responses. Previous studies have shown the advantages of model hierarchies for understanding the atmosphere. In this thesis, experiments are conducted in HadGAM1 with simplified lower boundary conditions. Two sets of experiments are conducted, one in a zonally symmetric aquaplanet and the other in a configuration with representative northern hemisphere land masses. A wide range of sea ice profiles are imposed. The dominant response to ice removal in an aquaplanet is an equatorward jet shift, consistent with previous work. This response is moderate in magnitude for ice which does not exceed 65◦ latitude, but strongly nonlinear for greater ice extents. The zonal mean response is qualitatively similar in the asymmetric configuration, but the nature of the asymmetric response shows sensitivity to the exact ice edge location. These results have implications for understanding the impact of sea ice anomalies in past as well as present climates. Changes in surface temperature gradients, including from Arctic amplification, could affect midlatitude climate even if circulation changes are small. In particular, changes in thermal advection could alter midlatitude temperature variability and extremes. In this thesis a multiple regression model is used to investigate projected monthly temperature variance changes in a recent single model ensemble. Many robust changes, including reduced winter temperature variance in Europe, are consistent with the effect of changes in the seasonal mean temperature gradient alone.