Artykuły w czasopismach na temat „Heuristic methodology”
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Soria-Alcaraz, Jorge A., Gabriela Ochoa, Andres Espinal, Marco A. Sotelo-Figueroa, Manuel Ornelas-Rodriguez i Horacio Rostro-Gonzalez. "A Methodology for Classifying Search Operators as Intensification or Diversification Heuristics". Complexity 2020 (13.02.2020): 1–10. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2020/2871835.
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Selection hyper-heuristics are generic search tools that dynamically choose, from a given pool, the most promising operator (low-level heuristic) to apply at each iteration of the search process. The performance of these methods depends on the quality of the heuristic pool. Two types of heuristics can be part of the pool: diversification heuristics, which help to escape from local optima, and intensification heuristics, which effectively exploit promising regions in the vicinity of good solutions. An effective search strategy needs a balance between these two strategies. However, it is not straightforward to categorize an operator as intensification or diversification heuristic on complex domains. Therefore, we propose an automated methodology to do this classification. This brings methodological rigor to the configuration of an iterated local search hyper-heuristic featuring diversification and intensification stages. The methodology considers the empirical ranking of the heuristics based on an estimation of their capacity to either diversify or intensify the search. We incorporate the proposed approach into a state-of-the-art hyper-heuristic solving two domains: course timetabling and vehicle routing. Our results indicate improved performance, including new best-known solutions for the course timetabling problem.
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Drake, John H., Matthew Hyde, Khaled Ibrahim i Ender Ozcan. "A genetic programming hyper-heuristic for the multidimensional knapsack problem". Kybernetes 43, nr 9/10 (3.11.2014): 1500–1511. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/k-09-2013-0201.
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Purpose – Hyper-heuristics are a class of high-level search techniques which operate on a search space of heuristics rather than directly on a search space of solutions. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the suitability of using genetic programming as a hyper-heuristic methodology to generate constructive heuristics to solve the multidimensional 0-1 knapsack problem Design/methodology/approach – Early hyper-heuristics focused on selecting and applying a low-level heuristic at each stage of a search. Recent trends in hyper-heuristic research have led to a number of approaches being developed to automatically generate new heuristics from a set of heuristic components. A population of heuristics to rank knapsack items are trained on a subset of test problems and then applied to unseen instances. Findings – The results over a set of standard benchmarks show that genetic programming can be used to generate constructive heuristics which yield human-competitive results. Originality/value – In this work the authors show that genetic programming is suitable as a method to generate reusable constructive heuristics for the multidimensional 0-1 knapsack problem. This is classified as a hyper-heuristic approach as it operates on a search space of heuristics rather than a search space of solutions. To our knowledge, this is the first time in the literature a GP hyper-heuristic has been used to solve the multidimensional 0-1 knapsack problem. The results suggest that using GP to evolve ranking mechanisms merits further future research effort.
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Burke, Edmund K., Matthew R. Hyde, Graham Kendall i John Woodward. "Automating the Packing Heuristic Design Process with Genetic Programming". Evolutionary Computation 20, nr 1 (marzec 2012): 63–89. http://dx.doi.org/10.1162/evco_a_00044.
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The literature shows that one-, two-, and three-dimensional bin packing and knapsack packing are difficult problems in operational research. Many techniques, including exact, heuristic, and metaheuristic approaches, have been investigated to solve these problems and it is often not clear which method to use when presented with a new instance. This paper presents an approach which is motivated by the goal of building computer systems which can design heuristic methods. The overall aim is to explore the possibilities for automating the heuristic design process. We present a genetic programming system to automatically generate a good quality heuristic for each instance. It is not necessary to change the methodology depending on the problem type (one-, two-, or three-dimensional knapsack and bin packing problems), and it therefore has a level of generality unmatched by other systems in the literature. We carry out an extensive suite of experiments and compare with the best human designed heuristics in the literature. Note that our heuristic design methodology uses the same parameters for all the experiments. The contribution of this paper is to present a more general packing methodology than those currently available, and to show that, by using this methodology, it is possible for a computer system to design heuristics which are competitive with the human designed heuristics from the literature. This represents the first packing algorithm in the literature able to claim human competitive results in such a wide variety of packing domains.
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Luescher, Andreas. "The Professional Portfolio as Heuristic Methodology". Journal of Technical Writing and Communication 32, nr 4 (październik 2002): 353–66. http://dx.doi.org/10.2190/0yg4-3yrh-kk3n-ykgx.
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The antecedents of literary autobiography as we know it today emerged during the 17th century against a backdrop of the rise of empirical science and inductive method. An arguably older form of autobiography—the portfolio—has, unlike the literary biography, languished on the periphery of academia during our time. While it should not be controversial to say that possession of an heuristic bent is one mark of a successful education (since learning how to think, that is learning how to be open, alert, engaged, is the fundamental mission of the student), the portfolio has been ignored in part because of its modern connotation as a ‘marketing’ tool but perhaps more significantly because as a heuristic methodology it is a threat to the centrality of the pedagogue. I argue that the portfolio deserves at very least a re-evaluation throughout academic (to say nothing of quotidian) life as an indispensable tool of the spirit of pedagogy. Like the autobiography, it is validated by the belief that gathering data or details about individual lives has to precede drawing general conclusions or seeing any overarching patterns.
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Savolainen, Reijo. "Heuristics elements of information-seeking strategies and tactics: a conceptual analysis". Journal of Documentation 73, nr 6 (9.10.2017): 1322–42. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/jd-11-2016-0144.
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Purpose The purpose of this paper is to elaborate the picture of strategies and tactics for information seeking and searching by focusing on the heuristic elements of such strategies and tactics. Design/methodology/approach A conceptual analysis of a sample of 31 pertinent investigations was conducted to find out how researchers have approached heuristics in the above context since the 1970s. To achieve this, the study draws on the ideas produced within the research programmes on Heuristics and Biases, and Fast and Frugal Heuristics. Findings Researchers have approached the heuristic elements in three major ways. First, these elements are defined as general level constituents of browsing strategies in particular. Second, heuristics are approached as search tips. Third, there are examples of conceptualizations of individual heuristics. Familiarity heuristic suggests that people tend to prefer sources that have worked well in similar situations in the past. Recognition heuristic draws on an all-or-none distinction of the information objects, based on cues such as information scent. Finally, representativeness heuristic is based on recalling similar instances of events or objects and judging their typicality in terms of genres, for example. Research limitations/implications As the study focuses on three heuristics only, the findings cannot be generalized to describe the use of all heuristic elements of strategies and tactics for information seeking and searching. Originality/value The study pioneers by providing an in-depth analysis of the ways in which the heuristic elements are conceptualized in the context of information seeking and searching. The findings contribute to the elaboration of the conceptual issues of information behavior research.
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Singh, Dilraj, i Harmanpreet Bhatia. "An Exploratory Study On Scope Of Heuristic Methodology For Teaching In Hospitality Institutes During Pandemic". PUSA Journal of Hospitality and Applied Sciences 8, nr 1 (30.11.2022): 18–33. http://dx.doi.org/10.48165/pjhas.2022.8.1.2.
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Background: Learning is the on-going and continuous process through our lives , there are some learning which is done through exploring new ventures, thinking differently to solve a particular problem, some learnings are through experiments and demonstrations which cannot be taught in white and black, this is where the heuristics learning evolve and came into existence and it also help the teachers or educators to break the monotony of traditional teaching methods and let the student to swim in the ocean of knowledge and get to the shore with the best possible results to the problems. Objectives: This study is to find out the acceptability and enlist prominent attitude for the heuristic learning along with the major challenges faced by the faculty in implementation of same in hospitality education. Methodology: A descriptive cross –sectional design was adopted. The study was conducted in hospitality institutes pan India through online Google Forms in form of questionnaire. Respondents were the faculty members of the institutes which were approached by sending e-mails and through online survey. Total 210 respondents participated in survey. The analysis was done by using relative importance of index along with averages and percentages. Results: The most important attitude required by faculty for the implementation of heuristic methodology are the acceptance of unique solution of students (0.867) and after testing the solution correct knowledge should be imparted to the students (0.856) (relative index of importance). The acceptability of heuristic methodology among the faculty is on average level with response of (39%) use of heuristic methodology for giving inputs to students. Various challenges in implementation are the syllabus needs a major change. The initial set of skills and knowledge are required by the students (56%), completing the syllabus will be a challenge as all the topics in various subjects are not teachable with heuristic methodology (38%). Conclusion: Respondents have given their responses towards mild acceptability towards using heuristic methodology, on the other hand the issues of challenges faced and various attitude required are strongly reflected towards the heuristic education. The need of proper training and right king of changes in syllabus are must of the successful implementation of this methodology.
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Mellouli, O., I. Hafidi i A. Metrane. "A modified choice function hyper-heuristic with Boltzmann function". Mathematical Modeling and Computing 8, nr 4 (2021): 736–46. http://dx.doi.org/10.23939/mmc2021.04.736.
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Hyper-heuristics are a subclass of high-level research methods that function in a low-level heuristic research space. Their aim objective is to improve the level of generality for solving combinatorial optimization problems using two main components: a methodology for the heuristic selection and a move acceptance criterion, to ensure intensification and diversification [1]. Thus, rather than working directly on the problem's solutions and selecting one of them to proceed to the next step at each stage, hyper-heuristics operates on a low-level heuristic research space. The choice function is one of the hyper-heuristics that have proven their efficiency in solving combinatorial optimization problems [2–4]. At each iteration, the selection of heuristics is dependent on a score calculated by combining three different measures to guarantee both intensification and diversification for the heuristics choice process. The heuristic with the highest score is therefore chosen to be applied to the problem. Therefore, the key to the success of the choice function is to choose the correct weight parameters of its three measures. In this study, we make a state of the art in hyper-heuristic research and propose a new method that automatically controls these weight parameters based on the Boltzmann function. The results obtained from its application on five problem domains are compared with those of the standard, modified choice function proposed by Drake et al. [2,3].
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Lee, Jin Lee, Doo Ho Park i Chang Hoon Lee. "Phishing Detection Methodology Using Web Sites Heuristic". KIPS Transactions on Computer and Communication Systems 4, nr 10 (31.10.2015): 349–60. http://dx.doi.org/10.3745/ktccs.2015.4.10.349.
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Schwaninger, M. "Integrative Systems Methodology: Heuristic for Requisite Variety". International Transactions in Operational Research 4, nr 2 (marzec 1997): 109–23. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-3995.1997.tb00068.x.
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Lengler, Johannes. "The Cohen–Lenstra heuristic: Methodology and results". Journal of Algebra 323, nr 10 (maj 2010): 2960–76. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jalgebra.2010.01.016.
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MALITSKY, YURI, i MEINOLF SELLMANN. "STOCHASTIC OFFLINE PROGRAMMING". International Journal on Artificial Intelligence Tools 19, nr 04 (sierpień 2010): 351–71. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s0218213010000236.
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We propose a framework which we call stochastic off-line programming (SOP). The idea is to embed the development of combinatorial algorithms in an off-line learning environment which helps the developer choose heuristic advisors that guide the search for satisfying or optimal solutions. In particular, we consider the case where the developer has several heuristic advisors available. Rather than selecting a single heuristic, we propose that one of the heuristics is chosen randomly whenever the heuristic guidance is sought. The task of the SOP is to learn favorable instance-specific distributions of the heuristic advisors in order to boost the average-case performance of the resulting combinatorial algorithm. Applying this methodology to a typical optimization problem, we show that substantial improvements can in fact be achieved when we perform learning in an instances specific manner.
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González Vargas, Guillermo, i Felipe González Aristizábal. "Metaheuristics applied to vehicle routing. A case study. Part 3: Genetic Clustering and Tabu Routing". Ingeniería e Investigación 27, nr 2 (1.05.2007): 106–13. http://dx.doi.org/10.15446/ing.investig.v27n2.14838.
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This paper presents hybrid meta-heuristics called Genetic Clustering and Tabu Routing for solving a vehicle routing problem using two phases methodology: first clustering and then routing. The results are compared with those obtained using meta-heuristics and heuristic techniques presented in previous papers. Genetic clustering and Tabu routing average results were 23% and 9.1% better, respectively.
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Aanstoos, Christopher M. "Review of Heuristic research: Design, methodology, and applications." Humanistic Psychologist 19, nr 2 (1991): 237–38. http://dx.doi.org/10.1037/h0101439.
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Voutchkov, Nikolay S., i Paul F. Boulos. "Heuristic Screening Methodology for Regional Wastewater‐Treatment Planning". Journal of Environmental Engineering 119, nr 4 (lipiec 1993): 603–14. http://dx.doi.org/10.1061/(asce)0733-9372(1993)119:4(603).
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TELELIS, ORESTIS, i PANAGIOTIS STAMATOPOULOS. "GUIDING CONSTRUCTIVE SEARCH WITH STATISTICAL INSTANCE-BASE LEARNING". International Journal on Artificial Intelligence Tools 11, nr 02 (czerwiec 2002): 247–66. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s0218213002000885.
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Several real world applications involve solving combinatorial optimization problems. Commonly, existing heuristic approaches are designed to address specific difficulties of the underlying problem and are applicable only within its framework. We suspect, however, that search spaces of combinatorial problems are rich in intuitive statistical and numerical information, which could be exploited heuristically in a generic manner, towards achievement of optimized solutions. Our work presents such a heuristic methodology, which can be adequately configured for several types of optimization problems. Experimental results are discussed, concerning two widely used problem models, namely the Set Partitioning and the Kanpsack problems. It is shown that, by gathering statistical information upon previously found solutions to the problems, the heuristic is able to incrementally adapt its behaviour and reach high quality solutions, exceeding the ones obtained by commonly used greedy heuristics.
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Lei, Yu, Maoguo Gong, Licheng Jiao i Yi Zuo. "A memetic algorithm based on hyper-heuristics for examination timetabling problems". International Journal of Intelligent Computing and Cybernetics 8, nr 2 (8.06.2015): 139–51. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/ijicc-02-2015-0005.
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Purpose – The examination timetabling problem is an NP-hard problem. A large number of approaches for this problem are developed to find more appropriate search strategies. Hyper-heuristic is a kind of representative methods. In hyper-heuristic, the high-level search is executed to construct heuristic lists by traditional methods (such as Tabu search, variable neighborhoods and so on). The purpose of this paper is to apply the evolutionary strategy instead of traditional methods for high-level search to improve the capability of global search. Design/methodology/approach – This paper combines hyper-heuristic with evolutionary strategy to solve examination timetabling problems. First, four graph coloring heuristics are employed to construct heuristic lists. Within the evolutionary algorithm framework, the iterative initialization is utilized to improve the number of feasible solutions in the population; meanwhile, the crossover and mutation operators are applied to find potential heuristic lists in the heuristic space (high-level search). At last, two local search methods are combined to optimize the feasible solutions in the solution space (low-level search). Findings – Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed approach obtains competitive results and outperforms the compared approaches on some benchmark instances. Originality/value – The contribution of this paper is the development of a framework which combines evolutionary algorithm and hyper-heuristic for examination timetabling problems.
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Jackovich, Petar, Bruce Cox i Raymond R. Hill. "Comparing greedy constructive heuristic subtour elimination methods for the traveling salesman problem". Journal of Defense Analytics and Logistics 4, nr 2 (30.11.2020): 167–82. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/jdal-09-2020-0018.
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Purpose This paper aims to define the class of fragment constructive heuristics used to compute feasible solutions for the traveling salesman problem (TSP) into edge-greedy and vertex-greedy subclasses. As these subclasses of heuristics can create subtours, two known methodologies for subtour elimination on symmetric instances are reviewed and are expanded to cover asymmetric problem instances. This paper introduces a third novel subtour elimination methodology, the greedy tracker (GT), and compares it to both known methodologies. Design/methodology/approach Computational results for all three subtour elimination methodologies are generated across 17 symmetric instances ranging in size from 29 vertices to 5,934 vertices, as well as 9 asymmetric instances ranging in size from 17 to 443 vertices. Findings The results demonstrate the GT is the fastest method for preventing subtours for instances below 400 vertices. Additionally, a distinction between fragment constructive heuristics and the subtour elimination methodology used to ensure the feasibility of resulting solutions enables the introduction of a new vertex-greedy fragment heuristic called ordered greedy. Originality/value This research has two main contributions: first, it introduces a novel subtour elimination methodology. Second, the research introduces the concept of ordered lists which remaps the TSP into a new space with promising initial computational results.
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Abdellatif, Houssem, i Bodo Heimann. "A novel multiple-heuristic approach for singularity-free motion planning of spatial parallel manipulators". Robotica 26, nr 5 (wrzesień 2008): 679–89. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0263574708004311.
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SUMMARYThe issue of motion planning for closed-loop mechanisms, such as parallel manipulators or robots, is still an open question. This paper proposes a novel approach for motion planning of spatial parallel robots. The framework for the geometric modeling is based on the visibility graph methodology. It is opted for a multiple-heuristics approach, where different influences are integrated in a multiplicative way within the heuristic cost function. Since the issue of singularities is a fundamental one for parallel robots, it is emphasized on the avoidance of such configurations. To include singularity-free planning within the heuristic approach, two heuristic functions are proposed, the inverse local dexterity as well as a novel defined “next-singularity” function, in such a way, well conditioned motions can be provided by a single planning procedure. The success of the method is illustrated by some examples.
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Maqsood, Shahid, M. Khurshid Khan, Alastair Wood i I. Hussain. "A Novel Heuristic Rule for Job Shop Scheduling". International Journal of Customer Relationship Marketing and Management 4, nr 1 (styczeń 2013): 28–40. http://dx.doi.org/10.4018/jcrmm.2013010103.
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Scheduling systems based on traditional heuristic rules, which deal with the complexities of manufacturing systems, have been used by researchers for the past six decades. These heuristics rules prioritise all jobs that are waiting to be processed on a resource. In this paper, a novel Index Based Heuristic (IBH) solution for the Job Shop Scheduling Problem (JSSP) is presented with the objective of minimising the overall Makespan (Cmax). The JSSP is still a challenge to researchers and is far from being completely solved due to its combinatorial nature. JSSP suits the challenges of current manufacturing environments. The proposed IBH calculates the indices of candidate jobs and assigns the job with the lower index value to the available machine. To minimise the gap between jobs, a swap technique is introduced. The swap technique takes candidate jobs for a machine and swaps them without violating the precedence constraint. Several benchmark problems are solved from the literature to test the validity and effectiveness of the proposed heuristic. The results show that the proposed IBH based algorithm outperforms the traditional heuristics and is a valid methodology for JSSP optimization.
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Dimaguila, Gerardo Luis, Kathleen Gray i Mark Merolli. "Enabling Better Use of Person-Generated Health Data in Stroke Rehabilitation Systems: Systematic Development of Design Heuristics". Journal of Medical Internet Research 22, nr 7 (28.07.2020): e17132. http://dx.doi.org/10.2196/17132.
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Background An established and well-known method for usability assessment of various human-computer interaction technologies is called heuristic evaluation (HE). HE has been adopted for evaluations in a wide variety of specialized contexts and with objectives that go beyond usability. A set of heuristics to evaluate how health information technologies (HITs) incorporate features that enable effective patient use of person-generated health data (PGHD) is needed in an era where there is a growing demand and variety of PGHD-enabled technologies in health care and where a number of remote patient-monitoring technologies do not yet enable patient use of PGHD. Such a set of heuristics would improve the likelihood of positive effects from patients’ use of PGHD and lower the risk of negative effects. Objective This study aims to describe the development of a set of heuristics for the design and evaluation of how well remote patient therapeutic technologies enable patients to use PGHD (PGHD enablement). We used the case of Kinect-based stroke rehabilitation systems (K-SRS) in this study. Methods The development of a set of heuristics to enable better use of PGHD was primarily guided by the R3C methodology. Closer inspection of the methodology reveals that neither its development nor its application to a case study were described in detail. Thus, where relevant, each step was grounded through best practice activities in the literature and by using Nielsen’s heuristics as a basis for determining the new set of heuristics. As such, this study builds on the R3C methodology, and the implementation of a mixed process is intended to result in a robust and credible set of heuristics. Results A total of 8 new heuristics for PGHD enablement in K-SRS were created. A systematic and detailed process was applied in each step of heuristic development, which bridged the gaps described earlier. It is hoped that this would aid future developers of specialized heuristics, who could apply the detailed process of heuristic development for other domains of technology, and additionally for the case of PGHD enablement for other health conditions. The R3C methodology was also augmented through the use of qualitative studies with target users and domain experts, and it is intended to result in a robust and credible set of heuristics, before validation and refinement. Conclusions This study is the first to develop a new set of specialized heuristics to evaluate how HITs incorporate features that enable effective patient use of PGHD, with K-SRS as a key case study. In addition, it is the first to describe how the identification of initial HIT features and concepts to enable PGHD could lead to the development of a specialized set of heuristics.
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JENSEN, FINN V., UFFE KJÆRULFF, BRIAN KRISTIANSEN, HELGE LANGSETH, CLAUS SKAANNING, JIŘÍ VOMLEL i MARTA VOMLELOVÁ. "The SACSO methodology for troubleshooting complex systems". Artificial Intelligence for Engineering Design, Analysis and Manufacturing 15, nr 4 (wrzesień 2001): 321–33. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0890060401154065.
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The paper describes the task of performing efficient decision-theoretic troubleshooting of electromechanical devices. In general, this task is NP-complete, but under fairly strict assumptions, a greedy approach will yield an optimal sequence of actions, as discussed in the paper. This set of assumptions is weaker than the set proposed by Heckerman et al. (1995). However, the printing system domain, which motivated the research and which is described in detail in the paper, does not meet the requirements for the greedy approach, and a heuristic method is used. The method takes value of identification of the fault into account and it also performs a partial two-step look-ahead analysis. We compare the results of the heuristic method with optimal sequences of actions, and find only minor differences between the two.
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Moser, Andrea K. "Buying organic – decision-making heuristics and empirical evidence from Germany". Journal of Consumer Marketing 33, nr 7 (14.11.2016): 552–61. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/jcm-04-2016-1790.
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Purpose Identifying the drivers that positively influence consumption of organic products is of utmost importance to reach consumers beyond the niche. Therefore, this study aims to propose an innovative framework which conceptualizes motivating beliefs and a simple decision-making heuristic as predictors of buying organic. Design/methodology/approach A structural equation approach is applied. Data were obtained from a nationwide panel (n = 1,760) and included survey data and scanner data for five different food categories. Findings The model is supported by actual purchasing data in all categories. While beliefs explained about 75 per cent of the variance in the decision-making heuristic for organic products, the heuristic in turn predicted up to 20 per cent of the variance in buying behavior. Research limitations/implications Further research should aim to validate the proposed constructs and relationships and refine the factors. Practical implications Consumers have to understand and value the benefits of organic products. Self-interested and environmental beliefs are equally strong motivations which can be seen as an opportunity for marketing. Originality/value The results contribute to understanding the structure and the impact of heuristics and quantify the competing beliefs by which heuristics are driven.
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Govindasamy, V., i P. Thambidurai. "Heuristic Event Filtering Methodology for Interval based Temporal Semantics". International Journal of Computer Applications 70, nr 7 (17.05.2013): 16–20. http://dx.doi.org/10.5120/11974-7836.
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Rahwan, Iyad, Liz Sonenberg, Nicholas R. Jennings i Peter McBurney. "STRATUM: A METHODOLOGY FOR DESIGNING HEURISTIC AGENT NEGOTIATION STRATEGIES". Applied Artificial Intelligence 21, nr 6 (6.07.2007): 489–527. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/08839510701408971.
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Smejkalova, Veronika, Radovan Somplak i Vlastimir Nevrly. "Heuristic Methodology for Forecasting of Production in Waste Management". MENDEL 23, nr 1 (1.06.2017): 185–92. http://dx.doi.org/10.13164/mendel.2017.1.185.
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The forecast of waste production and disposal is an important requirement for a future waste management planning. The problem is very often a short time series of the database. This paper suggests an approach to forecast the production of multiple waste types in micro-regions taking into account this challenge by combining many techniques. The heuristic methodology consisting of few steps is formulated. First, the input data are transformed and the methods from cluster analysis are repetitively applied. The second step is about a determination of quality for trend functions based on historical data. In the last step is performed the testing. The di erent type of representatives from cluster analysis is used to calculate indices of determination which are compared. This procedure is repeated until the criteria hit. The proposed approach reduced the computational time and managed to aggregate micro-regions with a similar trend. The forecast should have contributions in terms of building new facilities or adaptations to the existing ones, where it is necessary to estimate the production of waste for several years in advance. The article includes a case study of production forecast for several waste types in territorial units of the Czech Republic. The forecast is based on data in years 2009{2014 and following year 2015 was used to assess the quality of the nal models. In the future, the database will expand and thus it will be possible to make more precise estimates and to develop statistical methods to measure this prognostic tool.
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MORTON, THOMAS, VENKATESH NARAYAN i PRASAD RAMNATH. "A TUTORIAL ON BOTTLENECK DYNAMICS: A HEURISTIC SCHEDULING METHODOLOGY". Production and Operations Management 4, nr 2 (5.01.2009): 94–107. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1937-5956.1995.tb00044.x.
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Jackson, France, i Lara Cheng. "UX in Practice: Applying a Heuristic Evaluation Technique to Real World Challenges". Proceedings of the Human Factors and Ergonomics Society Annual Meeting 62, nr 1 (wrzesień 2018): 702–3. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1541931218621159.
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Introduction Heuristic Evaluation is a usability method that requires usability experts to review and offer feedback on user interfaces based on a list of heuristics or guidelines. Heuristic Evaluations allow designers to get feedback early and quickly in the design process before a full usability test is done. Unlike many usability evaluation methods, Heuristic Evaluations are performed by usability experts as opposed to target users. That is one reason it is going to make a great challenge activity for the UX Day Challenge session. Heuristic Evaluation is a usability method often used in conjunction with usability testing. During the evaluation, usability experts evaluate an interface based on a list of heuristics or guidelines (Nielsen and Molich, 1990). There are several sets of guidelines and they are used to evaluate a myriad of interfaces from gaming (Pinelle, Wong & Stach, 2008) and virtual reality (Sutcliffe & Gault, 2004) to online shopping (Chen & Macredie, 2005). Some of the most common heuristic guidelines to choose from were created by Nielsen (Nielsen and Molich, 1990) (Nielsen, 1994), Norman (Norman, 2013), Tognazzini (Tognazzini, 1998), and Shneiderman (Shneiderman, Plaisant, Cohen and Elmqvist, 2016). Choosing the best set of guidelines and the most appropriate number of usability professions is important. Nielsen and Molich’s research found that individual evaluators only find 20-51% of the usability problems when evaluating alone. However, when the feedback of three to five evaluators is aggregated together, more usability problems can be uncovered (Nielsen and Molich, 1990). This method can be advantageous because designers can get quick feedback early for iteration before a full round of usability testing is performed. The goal of this session is to introduce this method to some and give others a refresher on how to apply this method in the real world. The Challenge For several years, UX day has offered an alternative session. The most intriguing sessions were interactive and offered hands-on training. For this UX Day Challenge session, teams of at most five participants will perform a Heuristic Evaluation of a sponsor’s website or product. During the session, participants will be introduced to Heuristic Evaluations. Topics such as how to perform one, who should perform one, and when it is appropriate to perform one will be covered. Additionally, the pros and cons of using this method will be discussed. Following the introduction to Heuristic Evaluation, teams will use the updated set of Nielson Heuristics (Nielsen, 1994) for the evaluation exercise. Although there are several sets of heuristics, Nielsen’s is one of the best known and widely accepted sets. The following Updated Nielsen Heuristics will be used: • Visibility of system status • Match between system and the real world • User control and freedom • Consistency and standards • Error prevention • Recognition rather than recall • Flexibility and efficiency of use • Aesthetic and minimalist design • Help users recognize, diagnose, and recover from errors • Help and documentation Following the evaluation period, teams will be asked to report their findings and recommendations to the judges and audience. The judges will deliberate and announce the winner. Conclusion This alternative session will be an opportunity to potentially expose participants to a methodology they may not use often. It will also be an opportunity to have a hands-on learning experience for students who have not formally used this methodology in the real world. Most importantly this session is in continuation of the goal to continue to bring new, interesting, and disruptive sessions to the traditional “conference” format and attract UX practitioners.
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Jackson, Kimberly F., Zahar Prasov, Emily C. Vincent i Eric M. Jones. "A Heuristic Based Framework for Improving Design of Unmanned Systems by Quantifying and Assessing Operator Trust". Proceedings of the Human Factors and Ergonomics Society Annual Meeting 60, nr 1 (wrzesień 2016): 1696–700. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1541931213601390.
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Operator trust in autonomous capability is a critical factor affecting the success of fielded unmanned systems. However, current means of identifying trusted system behavior do not sufficiently inform guidelines for designing an engineering solution. We present a novel Trust Assessment Framework for providing actionable and formative feedback for building an unmanned system that promotes operators’ initial adoption of and reliance on its autonomous capabilities. Based on a review of the unmanned systems literature and a series of inquiries focusing on operators of unmanned aerial vehicles, we have identified a set of Heuristics for Trusted Autonomy and behaviorally anchored Trust Assessment Scales that enable quantitative feedback for each heuristic category. The Heuristics and Scales were incorporated into a Trust Assessment Process consisting of a Heuristic Evaluation and subsequent scoring. This trust assessment methodology can be applied directly to assessing autonomous aerial systems. Extensions to other platforms and domains are being investigated.
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Shah, Syed Zulfiqar Ali, Maqsood Ahmad i Faisal Mahmood. "Heuristic biases in investment decision-making and perceived market efficiency". Qualitative Research in Financial Markets 10, nr 1 (5.02.2018): 85–110. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/qrfm-04-2017-0033.
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Purpose This paper aims to clarify the mechanism by which heuristics influences the investment decisions of individual investors, actively trading on the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX), and the perceived efficiency of the market. Most studies focus on well-developed financial markets and very little is known about investors’ behaviour in less developed financial markets or emerging markets. The present study contributes to filling this gap in the literature. Design/methodology/approach Investors’ heuristic biases have been measured using a questionnaire, containing numerous items, including indicators of speculators, investment decisions and perceived market efficiency variables. The sample consists of 143 investors trading on the PSX. A convenient, purposively sampling technique was used for data collection. To examine the relationship between heuristic biases, investment decisions and perceived market efficiency, hypotheses were tested by using correlation and regression analysis. Findings The paper provides empirical insights into the relationship of heuristic biases, investment decisions and perceived market efficiency. The results suggest that heuristic biases (overconfidence, representativeness, availability and anchoring) have a markedly negative impact on investment decisions made by individual investors actively trading on the PSX and on perceived market efficiency. Research limitations/implications The primary limitation of the empirical review is the tiny size of the sample. A larger sample would have given more trustworthy results and could have empowered a more extensive scope of investigation. Practical implications The paper encourages investors to avoid relying on heuristics or their feelings when making investments. It provides awareness and understanding of heuristic biases in investment management, which could be very useful for decision makers and professionals in financial institutions, such as portfolio managers and traders in commercial banks, investment banks and mutual funds. This paper helps investors to select better investment tools and avoid repeating expensive errors, which occur due to heuristic biases. They can improve their performance by recognizing their biases and errors of judgment, to which we are all prone, resulting in a more efficient market. So, it is necessary to focus on a specific investment strategy to control “mental mistakes” by investors, due to heuristic biases. Originality/value The current study is the first of its kind, focusing on the link between heuristics, individual investment decisions and perceived market efficiency within the specific context of Pakistan.
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Vilchynskaya, Liudmila. "DEVELOPMENT OF INTERNAL MOTIVATION OF EDUCATIONAL ACTIVITY IN STUDENTS-ATHLETES ON THE BASIS OF USE OF HEURISTIC METHODS IN TEACHING SUBJECT "ANATOMY"". SOCIETY. INTEGRATION. EDUCATION. Proceedings of the International Scientific Conference 1 (26.05.2017): 422. http://dx.doi.org/10.17770/sie2017vol1.2302.
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In the article the role of heuristic methods of training in development of an intrinsic motivation of the educational activity of students of specialty "Physical culture" reveals. The methodological basis of research is constituted by pedagogical heuristics – methodology of training through own search. Content of heuristic training includes two parts: invariant which is set from the outside and is acquired by the student, and variable, created by each of them in the course of educational activity.The problem of research is formulated as a question: how it is possible to strengthen an intrinsic motivation of educational activities of students during teaching subject "Anatomy".The orientation of motivation of studying by students of subject "Anatomy" came to light by T. D. Dubovitskaya's test (reliability 0,935 (on Spirmen-Brown's formula) and 0,927 (on Cronbach's formula)). The data on change of dynamics of the academic progress of students confirming efficiency of heuristic methods are also provided in article.
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Reynolds, Martin. "Triple-loop learning and conversing with reality". Kybernetes 43, nr 9/10 (3.11.2014): 1381–91. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/k-07-2014-0158.
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Purpose – Three levels of learning developed by Gregory Bateson in the tradition of second-order cybernetics have in-part been translated in terms of double-loop and triple-loop learning (TLL), particularly in the tradition of systems thinking. Learning III and TLL have gained less popularity since they deal with less tangible issues regarding virtues of wisdom and justice, respectively. The purpose of this paper is to provide a learning device – the systems thinking in practice (STiP) heuristic – which helps to retrieve the cybernetic concern for wisdom in association with an often forgotten systems concern for real-world power relations. Design/methodology/approach – Using “conversation” as a metaphor the heuristic is introduced based on three orders of conversation. Drawing on ideas of systemic triangulation, another heuristic device – the systemic triangulator – is used to surface issues of power in the three orders of conversation. Some manifestations in using the STiP heuristic for supporting postgraduate systems learning are demonstrated. Findings – Some key complementarities between conventionally opaque cybernetic issues of wisdom and systems issues of power are revealed, and used proactively to explore more effective coaching of STiP. Research limitations/implications – Cybernetics and systems thinking may benefit from being grounded more in understanding, engaging with, and transforming social realities. The heuristics provide practical experiential and meaningful learning through conversation, and more social premium for the study of cybernetics and systems thinking. Originality/value – The heuristics – STiP, and the systemic triangulator – provides an innovative cyber-systemic space for learning and action.
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Wang, Lingya, i Dean S. Oliver. "Efficient Optimization of Well-Drilling Sequence with Learned Heuristics". SPE Journal 24, nr 05 (26.08.2019): 2111–34. http://dx.doi.org/10.2118/195640-pa.
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Summary When preparing a field–development plan, the forecast value of the development can be sensitive to the order in which the wells are drilled. Determining the optimal drilling sequence generally requires many simulation runs. In this paper, we formulate the sequential decision problem of a drilling schedule as one of finding a path in a decision tree that is most likely to generate the highest net present value (NPV). A nonparametric online–learning methodology is developed to efficiently compute the sequence of drilling wells that is optimal or near optimal. The main ideas behind the approach are that heuristics from relaxed problems can be used to estimate the maximum value of complete drilling sequences constrained to previous wells, and that multiple online–learning techniques can be used to improve the accuracy of the estimated values. The performance of various heuristic methods is studied in a model for which uncertainty in properties is neglected. The initial heuristic used in this work generates a higher estimated NPV than the actual maximum NPV. Although such a heuristic is guaranteed to find the true optimal drilling order when used in the A* informed-search algorithm method, the cost of the search can be prohibitive unless the initial heuristic is highly accurate. For the variants of heuristic search methods with weighting parameters, the results show that it might not be possible to identify parameters that can be used to find a solution quickly without sacrificing the accuracy of the estimated NPV in this drilling–sequence problem. In contrast, the online learned heuristics derived from observations from previous drilling steps are shown to outperform the other variants of heuristic methods in terms of running time, accuracy of the estimated value, and solution quality. Multilearned heuristic search (MLHS) with space reduction (MLHS–SR) is an efficient and fast method to find a solution with high value. Continuing the search with space restoration is guaranteed to improve the solution quality or find the same solution as the MLHS without any space reduction.
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Cevikcan, Emre. "An optimization methodology for multi model walking-worker assembly systems: an application from busbar energy distribution systems". Assembly Automation 36, nr 4 (5.09.2016): 439–59. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/aa-09-2015-072.
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Purpose Walking-worker assembly lines can be regarded as an effective method to achieve the above-mentioned characteristics. In such systems, workers, following each other, travel workstations in sequence by performing all of the required tasks of their own product. As the eventual stage of assembly line design, efforts should be made for capacity adjustments to meet the demand in terms of allocating tasks to workers via assembly line balancing. In this context, the purpose of this study is to address the balancing problem for multi-model walking-worker assembly systems, with the aim of improving planning capability for such systems by means of developing an optimization methodology. Design/methodology/approach Two linear integer programming models are proposed to balance a multi-model walking-worker assembly line optimally in a sequential manner. The first mathematical programming model attempts to determine number of workers in each segment (i.e. rabbit chase loop) for each model. The second model generates stations in each segment to smooth workflow. What is more, heuristic algorithms are provided due to computational burden of mathematical programming models. Two segment generation heuristic algorithms and a station generation heuristic algorithm are provided for the addressed problem. Findings The application of the mathematical programming approach improved the performance of a tap-off box assembly line in terms of number of workers (9.1 per cent) and non-value-added time ratio (between 27.9 and 26.1 per cent for different models) when compared to a classical assembly system design. In addition, the proposed approach (i.e. segmented walking-worker assembly line) provided a more convenient working environment (28.1 and 40.8 per cent shorter walking distance for different models) in contrast with the overall walking-worker assembly line. Meanwhile, segment generation heuristics yielded reduction in labour requirement for a considerable number (43.7 and 49.1 per cent) of test problems. Finally, gaps between the objective values and the lower bounds have been observed as 8.3 per cent (Segment Generation Heuristic 1) and 6.1 (Segment Generation Heuristic 2). Practical implications The proposed study presents a decision support for walking-worker line balancing with high level of solution quality and computational performance for even large-sized assembly systems. That being the case, it contributes to the management of real-life assembly systems in terms of labour planning and ergonomics. Owing to the fact that the methodology has the potential of reducing labour requirement, it will present the opportunity of utilizing freed-up capacity for new lines in the start-up period or other bottleneck processes. In addition, this study offers a working environment where skill of the workers can be improved within reasonable walking distances. Originality/value To the best knowledge of the author, workload balancing on multi-model walking-worker assembly lines with rabbit chase loop(s) has not yet been handled. Addressing this research gap, this paper presents a methodology including mathematical programming models and heuristic algorithms to solve the multi-model walking-worker assembly line balancing problem for the first time.
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Montoya, Oscar Danilo, Federico Martin Serra, Cristian Hernan De Angelo, Harold R. Chamorro i Lazaro Alvarado-Barrios. "Heuristic Methodology for Planning AC Rural Medium-Voltage Distribution Grids". Energies 14, nr 16 (20.08.2021): 5141. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/en14165141.
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The optimal expansion of AC medium-voltage distribution grids for rural applications is addressed in this study from a heuristic perspective. The optimal routes of a distribution feeder are selected by applying the concept of a minimum spanning tree by limiting the number of branches that are connected to a substation (mixed-integer linear programming formulation). In order to choose the caliber of the conductors for the selected feeder routes, the maximum expected current that is absorbed by the loads is calculated, thereby defining the minimum thermal bound of the conductor caliber. With the topology and the initial selection of the conductors, a tabu search algorithm (TSA) is implemented to refine the solution with the help of a three-phase power flow simulation in MATLAB for three different load conditions, i.e., maximum, medium, and minimum consumption with values of 100%, 60%, and 30%, respectively. This helps in calculating the annual costs of the energy losses that will be summed with the investment cost in conductors for determining the final costs of the planning project. Numerical simulations in two test feeders comprising 9 and 25 nodes with one substation show the effectiveness of the proposed methodology regarding the final grid planning cost; in addition, the heuristic selection of the calibers using the minimum expected current absorbed by the loads provides at least 70% of the calibers that are contained in the final solution of the problem. This demonstrates the importance of using adequate starting points to potentiate metaheuristic optimizers such as the TSA.
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Igah, Simeon Abel. "A Schematic Research Guide Heuristic Model: Research Methodology Made Easy". International Journal of Advances in Scientific Research and Engineering 08, nr 01 (2022): 39–43. http://dx.doi.org/10.31695/ijasre.2022.8.1.5.
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Irani, K. B., i S. I. Yoo. "A methodology for solving problems: problem modeling and heuristic generation". IEEE Transactions on Pattern Analysis and Machine Intelligence 10, nr 5 (wrzesień 1988): 676–86. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/34.6776.
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Song, Jungsuk, Younsu Lee, Kyuil Kim, Seokhun Kim, SooKyun Kim i Sang-Soo Choi. "Automated Verification Methodology of Security Events Based on Heuristic Analysis". International Journal of Distributed Sensor Networks 11, nr 9 (styczeń 2015): 817918. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2015/817918.
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Bai, Ruibin, Jacek Blazewicz, Edmund K. Burke, Graham Kendall i Barry McCollum. "A simulated annealing hyper-heuristic methodology for flexible decision support". 4OR 10, nr 1 (23.11.2011): 43–66. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10288-011-0182-8.
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Chakraborty, A., i D. Deglon. "Development of a heuristic methodology for precise sensor network design". Computers & Chemical Engineering 32, nr 3 (marzec 2008): 382–95. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.compchemeng.2007.02.008.
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Bensakhria, Mohamed, i Samir Abdelhamid. "A hybrid methodology based on heuristic algorithms for a production distribution system with routing decisions". Bizinfo Blace 12, nr 2 (2021): 1–22. http://dx.doi.org/10.5937/bizinfo2102001b.
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In this paper, we address the integration of a two-level supply chain with multiple items. This two-level production-distribution system features a capacitated production facility supplying several retailers located in the same region. If production does occur, this process incurs a fixed setup cost and unit production costs. Besides, deliveries are made from the plant to the retailers by a limited number of capacitated vehicles, routing costs incurred. This work aims to implement a minimization solution that reduces the total costs in both the production facility and retailers. The methodology adopted based on a hybrid heuristic, greedy and genetic algorithm uses strong formulation to provide a suitable solution of a guaranteed quality that is as good or better than those provided by the MIP optimizer. The results demonstrate that the proposed heuristics are effective and performs impressively in terms of computational efficiency and solution quality.
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Cavarretta, Fabrice L. "On the hard problem of selecting bundles of rules: a conceptual exploration of heuristic emergence processes". Management Decision 59, nr 7 (10.05.2021): 1598–616. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/md-09-2019-1322.
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PurposeSo far, the simplicity of heuristics has been mostly studied at the rule level. However, actors' bounded rationality implies that small bundles of rules drive behavior. This study thus conducts a conceptual elaboration around such bundling. This leads to reflections on the various processes of heuristic emergence and to qualifications of the respective characteristics of basic heuristic classes.Design/methodology/approachDetermining which rules – out of many possible ones – to select in one's small bundle constitutes a difficult combinatorial problem. Fortunately, past research has demonstrated that solutions can be found in evolutionary mechanisms. Those converge toward bundles that are somewhat imperfect yet cannot be easily improved, a.k.a., locally optimal bundles. This paper therefore identifies that heuristic bundles can efficiently emerge by social evolutionary mechanisms whereby actors recursively exchange, adopt and perform bundles of rules constitute processes of heuristic emergence.FindingsSuch evolutionary emergence of socially calculated small bundles of heuristics differs from the agentic process by which some simple rule heuristics emerge or from the biological calculation process by which some behavioral biology heuristics emerge. The paper subsequently proceeds by classifying heuristics depending on their emergence process, distinguishing, on the one hand, agentic vs evolutionary mechanisms and, on the other hand, social vs biological encodings. The differences in the emergence processes of heuristics suggest the possibility of comparing them on three key characteristics – timescale, reflectivity and local optimality – which imply different forms of fitness.Research limitations/implicationsThe study proceeds as a conceptual elaboration; hence, it does not provide empirics. At a microlevel, it enables classification and comparison of the largest possible range of heuristics. At a macrolevel, it advocates for further exploration of managerial bundles of rules, regarding both their dynamics and their substantive nature.Practical implicationsIn the field, practitioners are often observed to socially construct their theory of action, which emerges as a bundle of heuristics. This study demonstrates that such social calculations provide solutions that have comparatively good qualities as compared to heuristics emerging through other processes, such as agentic simple rules or instinctive – i.e. behavioral biology – heuristics. It should motivate further research on bundles of heuristics in management practice. Such an effort would improve the ability to produce knowledge fitting the absorptive capacity of practitioners and enhance the construction of normative managerial theories and pedagogy.Social implicationsBundles of rules may also play a crucial role in the emergence of collective action. This study contributes to a performativity perspective whereby theories can become reality. It demonstrates how the construction of a managerial belief system may amount to the launching of a social movement and vice versa.Originality/valueOverall, many benefits accrue from integrating the bundles of rules expressed and exchanged by practitioners under the heuristic umbrella. So far, in management scholarship, such emergent objects have sometimes been interpreted as naïve or as indicative of institutional pressures. By contrast, this study shows that socially calculated bundles may efficiently combine the advantages of individuals' reflective cognitive processes with those provided by massive evolutionary exchanges. In conclusion, the social calculations of small heuristic bundles may constitute a crucial mechanism for the elaboration of pragmatic theories of action.
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Henrizi, Philipp, Dario Himmelsbach i Stefan Hunziker. "Anchoring and adjustment effects on audit judgments: experimental evidence from Switzerland". Journal of Applied Accounting Research 22, nr 4 (24.02.2021): 598–621. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/jaar-01-2020-0011.
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PurposeThe purpose of this study is to illustrate the potentially detrimental effects on audit decision-making of certain judgmental heuristics, which can lead to systematic judgmental biases. This paper provides background on the heuristics and biases approaches to decision-making to increase auditors' awareness of the anchoring and adjustment effects affecting audit judgments adversely.Design/methodology/approachThis study reports the results of an experimental research design analyzing the audit judgment of 85 auditors in Switzerland.FindingsBased on the results of the experiment, the results indicate evidence on the existence of the anchoring and adjustment heuristic in Swiss audit judgments. The authors could identify an influence of the audit company size, the auditors' experience and the auditors' knowledge about behaviorism and anchor heuristic with regard to the anchoring and adjustment effect on audit judgment.Research limitations/implicationsThe experimental tasks were relatively simple abstractions from the more complex analytical review situations faced by practicing auditors. Due to the small sample size, the authors cannot ensure representativeness of the results.Practical implicationsProfessional judgment is a skill that auditor acquires overtime, combined with experience and knowledge, that allows him to achieve reasonable judgments, being independent of other opinions and free from material biases in a given circumstance. Our results show that auditors who are aware of biases and heuristics are less prone to judgment biases.Originality/valueThis paper is the first to analyze the impact of auditors' explicit experience and knowledge about behaviorism and anchor heuristic on the anchoring and adjustment effect on audit judgment. Through a stronger awareness of cognitive biases, a professional skepticism can be enhanced.
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Kasoga, Pendo Shukrani. "Heuristic biases and investment decisions: multiple mediation mechanisms of risk tolerance and financial literacy—a survey at the Tanzania stock market". Journal of Money and Business 1, nr 2 (1.11.2021): 102–16. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/jmb-10-2021-0037.
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PurposeThe purpose of this research is to examine the effect of heuristic biases on investment decisions through multiple mediation mechanisms of risk tolerance and financial literacy in the Tanzanian stock market.Design/methodology/approachA sample of 316 individual investors in the Tanzanian stock market was obtained through questionnaires. The data were analyzed using structural equation modeling (SEM).FindingsThe findings show that financial literacy mediates insignificantly the effects of overconfidence, availability, anchoring and representativeness heuristics on investment decisions. Further, financial literacy does not influence the effect of risk tolerance and investment decisions. Risk tolerance is confirmed as a positive mediator of overconfidence, availability, anchoring and representativeness heuristics in investment decisions. Also, the study shows that overconfidence exerts a stronger influence on investment decisions, followed by availability, representativeness, risk tolerance, anchoring and financial literacy.Research limitations/implicationsThe study deals with real investors. Therefore, it uses fewer items to measure the constructs in order to avoid respondent bias. Further research could examine the effects of heuristic biases on investment decisions by adding or modifying the items of particular constructs and studying institutional investors.Practical implicationsThe findings can help individual investors to analyze and evaluate their behavior toward stock selection. Securities institutions can use this research to understand investors' behavior, evaluate future market trends and provide advice to the investors.Originality/valuePrevious studies have examined the impact of heuristics on the investment decisions of individual investors. The unique empirical analysis developed in this paper is that it examines the multiple mediation mechanisms of risk tolerance and financial literacy with respect to heuristic biases and investment decisions in the Tanzanian stock market.
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Rötheli, Tobias. "Heuristics versus econometrics as a basis for forecasting international inflation differentials". foresight 21, nr 2 (8.04.2019): 216–26. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/fs-07-2018-0070.
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Purpose This study aims to address the issue of prediction of inflation differences for an economy that considers either fixing its exchange rate or joining a currency union. In this setting, individual countries have limited control over their inflation, and anticipating the possible course of domestic inflation relative to inflation abroad becomes an important input in policy-making. In this context, the author compares simple forecast heuristics and econometric modeling. Design/methodology/approach The study compares two basically different approaches. The first approach of forecasting consists of simple heuristics. Various heuristics are considered that differ with respect to the economic reasoning that goes into quantifying the forecast rules. The simplest such forecasting heuristic suggests that the average over all available observations of inflation differentials should be taken as a predictor for the future. Bringing more economic insight to bear suggests a further heuristic according to which historical inflation differentials should be adjusted for changes in the nominal exchange rate. A further variant of this approach suggests that a forecast should exclusively rely on data from earlier times under a pegged exchange rate. A fundamentally different approach to prediction builds on dynamic econometric models estimated by using all available historical data independent of the currency regime. Findings The author studies three small member countries of the Eurozone, i.e. Finland, Luxembourg and Portugal. For the evaluation of the various forecasting strategies, he performs out-of-sample predictions over a horizon of five years. The comparison of the four different forecasting strategies documents that the variant of the forecast heuristic that draws on data from earlier experiences under fixed exchange rates performs better than the forecast based on the estimated econometric model. Practical implications The findings of this study provide helpful guidelines for countries considering either joining a currency union or fixing their exchange rate. The author shows that a simple forecasting heuristic gives sound advice for assessing the likely course of inflation. Originality/value This study describes how economic theory can guide the selection of historical data for assessing likely future developments. The analysis shows that using a simple heuristic based on historical analogy can lead to better forecasts than the analytically more sophisticated approach of econometric modeling.
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Silwal, Prem Prasad, i Shreya Bajracharya. "Behavioral Factors Influencing Stock Investment Decision of Individuals". International Research Journal of Management Science 6, nr 1 (31.12.2021): 53–73. http://dx.doi.org/10.3126/irjms.v6i1.42339.
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Purpose: The purpose of this study is to identify the behavioral factors influencing individual investors’ decisions and to analyze the relationship between these factors and investment decision performance. Design/Methodology/Approach: The tested variables were: Anchoring bias, Gambler’s Fallacy, Overconfidence bias, Availability and Representativeness bias from heuristics factor, Mental Accounting, Loss and Regret Aversion from prospect factor, and Market variables and Herding factors. The study employed exploratory and confirmatory factor analysis. In addition, structural equation modeling is applied for the testing of the hypotheses. Findings: Prospect behavioral factor is seen to have negative correlation to investment performance. Herding, Market variables and Heuristic (including overconfidence and anchoring bias) are found to have positive correlation to investment performance. Implications: To cope with intense competition among the competitors in Nepali stock market, this study provides strong evidence herding and heuristic approach that have positive indication to investment performance
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Collins, Alan M., James Martin Cronin, Steve Burt i Richard J. George. "From store brands to store brandscapes: the emergence of a time and money saving heuristic". European Journal of Marketing 49, nr 5/6 (11.05.2015): 894–918. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/ejm-01-2014-0038.
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Purpose – This paper aims to investigate the role of store brands as a time- and money-saving heuristic in the context of an omnipresent store brand hierarchy. Drawing on the work of Tversky and Kahneman (1982), it proposes that the store brand hierarchy is characterised by many of the traits of frequently used heuristics employed by grocery shoppers. Design/methodology/approach – Based on Chaiken’s (1980) model of information processing and Stigler’s (1961) perspective on the economics of information search, the study deductively establishes a model of store brand proneness to reveal the role of store brands as time- and money-saving heuristic. The model is tested on a sample of 535 US households using structural equation modelling and subsequent multigroup analysis based on two subsamples of households experiencing high financial pressure but who differ in terms of time pressure. Findings – The findings provide strong support for store brands as a time- and money-saving heuristic and as a substitute for price search among households experiencing financial and time pressures. Research limitations/implications – The main limitation is that the study is based on a sample of households located in one region of the US market. Practical implications – Retailers need to be aware that any extension of the store brand portfolio beyond the traditional multi-tiered price/quality hierarchy risks undermining what has emerged to be a valuable heuristic used by certain shoppers. Originality/value – This study extends our understanding of the role of store brands in the marketplace by going beyond their conceptualisation as a competitive device used by retailers to instead position them as a decision-making tool used by consumers. It also deepens our understanding of the boundary between rational search activities and the transition to the use of frequently flawed heuristics within the shopping process.
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Zavadskas, Edmundas Kazimieras, Romualdas Bausys, Ingrida Lescauskiene i Ana Usovaite. "MULTIMOORA under Interval-Valued Neutrosophic Sets as the Basis for the Quantitative Heuristic Evaluation Methodology HEBIN". Mathematics 9, nr 1 (30.12.2020): 66. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/math9010066.
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During the last decade, researchers put a lot of effort into the development of the multi-criteria decision methods (MCDM) capable of dealing with the uncertainty and vagueness of the initial information. MCDM approaches that work under the environment of the interval-valued neutrosophic sets (IVNS) demonstrate credibility for the analysis of different opinions as well as for the inconsistency of the criteria evaluation data. The novel multicriteria decision-making approach MULTIMOORA-IVNS (multi-objective optimisation by ratio analysis under interval-valued neutrosophic sets) is presented in this paper. A novel heuristic evaluation methodology HEBIN (heuristic evaluation based on interval numbers) that exploits MULTIMOORA-IVNS for the processing of the evaluation results is also presented in this research. HEBIN is able to increase the accuracy of the checklists-based heuristic evaluation and to diminish the impact of the inconsistencies caused by the evaluators. A comparison of six e-commerce websites is introduced to reveal the practicalities of the proposed multicriteria decision-making application.
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SULAKSMI, ANDRI, ANNISA KESY GARSIDE i FITHRIANY HADZIQAH. "PENJADWALAN PRODUKSI DENGAN ALGORITMA HEURISTIK POUR (STUDI KASUS: KONVEKSI ONE WAY – MALANG)". Jurnal Teknik Industri 15, nr 1 (7.11.2014): 35. http://dx.doi.org/10.22219/jtiumm.vol15.no1.35-44.
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PENJADWALAN PRODUKSI DENGAN ALGORITMAHEURISTIK POUR (STUDI KASUS: KONVEKSI ONE WAY –MALANG)ANDRI SULAKSMI, ANNISA KESY GARSIDE*, DAN FITHRIANY HADZIQAHJurusan Teknik Industri, Fakultas Teknik, Universitas Muhammadiyah MalangJl. Raya Tlogomas 246, Malang, Jawa Timur 65144Email: sulaksmiandri@gmail.com, anisa_garside@yahoo.com, fitriany17@yahoo.comABSTRAKKonveksi One Way memproduksi berbagai jenis kaos berdasarkan order yang datang dari konsumen.Dalam memenuhi order tersebut, perusahaan menggunakan aturan First Come First Serve dalammenjadwalkan urutan pengerjaan ordernya. Aturan ini sering tidak menguntungkan bagi order yangmembutuhkan waktu proses yang pendek karena apabila order tersebut berada di belakang antrian makaharus menunggu yang lama sebelum diproses dan menyebabkan waktu penyelesaian seluruh order menjadilebih panjang. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menjadwalkan urutan pengerjaan kaos di konveksi OneWay dengan menggunakan algoritma heuristik Pour sehingga waktu penyelesaian menjadi lebih singkatdan order kaos bisa selesai tepat waktu. Tahapan-tahapan penelitian terdiri dari pengumpulan data,perhitungan waktu standar, perhitungan total waktu proses berdasarkan order, penjadwalan denganmetode awal perusahaan, penjadwalan dengan metode heuristik pour, dan perbandingan makespan antarakedua metode. Berdasarkan hasil penjadwalan menggunakan heuristik Pour diperoleh penghematanmakespan sebesar 8,09 jam atau 19,25% dibanding makespan dengan metode perusahaan saat ini.Kata kunci: penjadwalan produksi, first come first serve, heuristik pour, makespanABSTRACT“One Way Convection” is a garment company which produces many kinds of t-shirt based on thecustomer’s order. In order to fulfill the order, the company applies role of First-Come First-Serve forscheduling the order production sequence. This role is often disadvantageous for the order with shortprocess time because if it is dispatched after the order with long process time, then it will take longer in queueand causes the completion time of all order to be longer. This research aims to schedule t-shirt’s sequenceoperation in “One Way Convection” company by using Pour heuristic algorithm so that completion timebecomes shorter and order fulfillment can be accomplished on-time. The steps in this methodology consistof collecting data, calculating standard time and total process time according to the order, scheduling usinginitial method proposed by company, scheduling using Pour heuristic algorithm, and comparing makespanof both approaches. According to the Pour Heuristic method, saving is obtained in makespan as 8.09 hoursor 19.25% compared with initial method proposed by company.Key words: production scheduling, first come first serve, pour heuristic, makespan
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Dusmanescu, Dorel, Jean Andrei, Gheorghe Popescu, Elvira Nica i Mirela Panait. "Heuristic Methodology for Estimating the Liquid Biofuel Potential of a Region". Energies 9, nr 9 (31.08.2016): 703. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/en9090703.
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Marcoulaki, Eftychia C. "A Heuristic Methodology for Efficient Reduction of Large Multistate Event Trees". Journal of Quality and Reliability Engineering 2013 (10.06.2013): 1–14. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2013/532350.
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This work proposes a new methodology for the management of event tree information used in the quantitative risk assessment of complex systems. The size of event trees increases exponentially with the number of system components and the number of states that each component can be found in. Their reduction to a manageable set of events can facilitate risk quantification and safety optimization tasks. The proposed method launches a deductive exploitation of the event space, to generate reduced event trees for large multistate systems. The approach consists in the simultaneous treatment of large subsets of the tree, rather than focusing on the given single components of the system and getting trapped into guesses on their structural arrangement.