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Sonon, Hyppolite. "L'encadrement juridique de la gestion des risques d'inondation au Bénin". Electronic Thesis or Diss., Toulon, 2021. http://www.theses.fr/2021TOUL0142.
Pełny tekst źródłaThe reduction of the increase of flood risks and their consequences on human security has often been thought, in developing countries, in terms of costs and techniques based on the work of climatologists, hydrologists and others, neglecting most often the legal and institutional aspect. This work on the legal framework of flood risk management in Benin aims to provide some answers to the reflection on the legal approaches to natural disaster prevention, particularly floods.If the objective of flood risk reduction policy is to implement prevention and protection measures, with adequate means, in order to protect people, property and the environment, to what extent can the legal framework for flood risk management contribute to poverty reduction? The answer can be legal, insofar as, upstream, during and downstream of the disaster, the administrations in charge apply texts and initiatives that the citizens accept and respect.In addition, and following the same objective of poverty reduction, the repair of damage caused by floods to vulnerable populations could be legally instituted in order to allow the recovery of victims. The implementation of such measures remains the best way to reduce the risk of flooding, and to ensure the security of future investments that will contribute objectively to poverty reduction
Lakrikba, El Mehdi. "La prévention des risques d'inondation à l'aide de la gestion foncière au Maroc". Master's thesis, Université Laval, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11794/25738.
Pełny tekst źródłaHenry, Jean-Baptiste. "Systèmes d'information spatiaux pour la gestion du risque d'inondation de plaine". Phd thesis, Université Louis Pasteur - Strasbourg I, 2004. http://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00009093.
Pełny tekst źródłaDe, Barros Correia Romualdo. "Un système d'information foncière pour gérer le risque d'inondation : expérimentation à Praia ( cap vert)". Thesis, Avignon, 2019. http://www.theses.fr/2019AVIG1198.
Pełny tekst źródłaExtreme disasters related to climate change have become an increasing research topic,particularly due to the cost of damage (economic, human, social and environmental), whichhas a negative impact on GDP and from which the poorest countries suffer most. More locally,the city of Praia, the capital of Cape Verde, has to face to various disasters, especially flashfloods. These hazards occur between July and August, following heavy rains, and tend tointensify. These floods, aggravated by the conquest of urbanized areas in high‐risk areas, invalley bottoms and steeply sloping areas, increase the level of exposure of residents. The latterare also vulnerable because someone’s live in precarious illegal habitats. In response to thissituation, this research proposes to create, test and deploy a prototype cadastral LandInformation System, with spatial reference, to propose indicators of the risk of buildings in theface of rapid flooding and to increase the knowledge of land administration. The system isstructured around two aspects: a "mobile gisweb" component, which allows electronic datacollection from the field, thus promoting the participation of households in the process ofassessing their own risk and vulnerability, while allowing in situ collection; and a "workstation"component, allowing the processing and dissemination of risk information while consideringrisk management at the city level. To do this, html, JavaScript and CSS languages and opensource technologies (Google API, PostgreSQL/PostGIS, PHP, OpenLayers 3, QGIS software,Geoserver) were used to make the tool both transposable and operational. According to thesample surveyed, the level of risk of housing in the face of rapid flooding is high (33%), and it isexplained by geographical and environmental vulnerabilities of buildings, associated with thesocio‐economic insecurity of households
Graziano, Maxime Genelot Emilie Serrhini Kamal. "Sémiologie Graphique Expérimentale (SGE) pour une cartographie efficace du risque d'inondation /". Tours : Polytech'Tours, Aménagement, 2009. http://www.applis.univ-tours.fr/scd/EPU_DA/2009PFE_Genelot_Emilie.pdf.
Pełny tekst źródłaDoussin, Nicolas. "Mise en œuvre locale d'une stratégie globale de prévention du risque d'inondation : le cas de la Loire moyenne". Phd thesis, Université de Cergy Pontoise, 2009. http://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00462076.
Pełny tekst źródłaHsu, Hao-Ming. "Gestion du risque d'inondation dans les zones urbaines : valeur ajoutée des automates cellulaires et de la modélisation à base d'agents". Electronic Thesis or Diss., Université Côte d'Azur, 2024. http://www.theses.fr/2024COAZ5012.
Pełny tekst źródłaFloods are the most common natural disasters worldwide, which can cause serious damage to property and fatality, especially in urban areas. Hence, flood risk management is essential to avoid new flood risk, to prevent and to reduce existing impact of floods and to manage residual flood risk.This study first brief reviewed several historical flood events worldwide, and especially the applications of flood risk treatment of the study areas in France and in Taiwan. The effectiveness and problems of the applications were also analysed and summarised.Then, since Agent-Based Models (ABMs) are ideal tools for simulating the actions, reactions and interactions of autonomous individuals and the environment in a complex system, in order to evaluate the effectiveness and outcomes of flood risk reduction strategies, this study employed an ABM, Netlogo, to analyse the possible interactions of human behaviour and the environment with different strategies. A coupled ABM was developed, combining (i) an evacuation model, for the agent simulations to investigate possible evacuation process during flood, and (ii) a cellular automata (CA) 2D overland flow model, for inundation simulations. Several case studies and benchmark tests were selected for verifying the models and evaluating the model performances. The evacuation model could generate plausible outcomes of the evacuation process, and the results showed the importance of the risk/flood maps and the warning alarm timing. The CA 2D overland flow model could produce promising model outputs, and the results showed great agreement between model predictions and observations in terms of inundation extent, water levels, and flow velocities.Next, the coupled ABM was applied to analyse the community-based flood risk management of the study area. The results of the coupled ABM revealed its capability of conducting inundation simulation and the potential for generating plausible outcomes of the interaction between flood water, response strategies and human behaviour during a flood event.Finally, the study proposed possible applications of the coupled ABM and feasibility of integration of the coupled ABM and a Decision Support System (DSS). Despite the possible advantages in various fields, there were still many gaps inside the structure to be filled. The most important issue about the operation of the DSS was the way of format standardisation, communication and interoperability between the various existing components.The study aims to investigate and to improve existing flood risk management, to raise public crisis awareness and to enhance community-based flood risk management
Bonnard, Jean-Yves. "Les limites de la gestion du risque d'inondation dans le bassin versant de l'Oise : acteurs et territoires". Paris 10, 2006. http://www.theses.fr/2006PA100118.
Pełny tekst źródłaThe management of the risk of flooding by the river Oise emerged by the middle of the nineteenth century. Yet, a real policy aiming at fighting floddings wasn’t set up before the 1966 rising with the institution in 1968 of an “Entente Interdépartementale Oise – Aisne” wich focused its efforts on the middle valleys of the rivers Oise and Aisne. The 1993 and 1995 risings, wich flooded most of the basin valleys, questionned the hydraulic conceptions and public policies. Despite the fundamental reforms carried out in the prevision, prevention and protection areas, the results of theses actions remain uncertain on account of freezing linked to the high number of actors and water uses, but also on account of the imbrication of the status of the rivers and administrative territories. This thesis will firstly evaluate the improvements realized in the basin of the river Oise since 1993, the look into the society legacies wich are at the origin of the freezings in order to set the limits of the management of the risk of flooding due to social and economical permanences, and those linked to territory divisions
Rioust, Emilie. "Gouverner l'incertain : adaptation, résilience et évolutions dans la gestion du risque d'inondation urbaine : les services d'assainissement de la Seine-Saint-Denis et du Val-de-Marne face au changement climatique". Phd thesis, Université Paris-Est, 2012. http://pastel.archives-ouvertes.fr/pastel-00793160.
Pełny tekst źródłaKreis, Nicolas. "Modélisation des crues des rivières de moyenne montagne pour la gestion intégrée du risque d'inondation : application à la vallée de la Thur (Haut-Rhin)". Phd thesis, ENGREF (AgroParisTech), 2004. http://pastel.archives-ouvertes.fr/pastel-00001251.
Pełny tekst źródłaFournier, Marie. "Le riverain introuvable ! La gestion du risque d'inondation au défi d'une mise en perspective diachronique : une analyse menée à partir de l'exemple de la Loire". Thesis, Tours, 2010. http://www.theses.fr/2010TOUR1802/document.
Pełny tekst źródłaFlood control policies have strongly evolved within the last few years. "Integrated" approaches are1developing:they do not only consider river management but also flood prone areas management andadaptation. In a general context within which public participation is promoted, involvement of inhabitantsliving in the flood prone areas should be granted. However, during our first inquiries, we noticed publicparticipation was limited and we tried to understand why. Hence, our hypothesis is that publicparticipation in the elaboration of flood control policies is limited hecause of responsibilities' issues. Floodmanagers' responsibilities are so strong that they prevent them from involving inhabitants.To demonstrate this hypothesis, we confront current flood management projects carried out on the LoireRiver with former projects implemented during the 19th century, after the major floods which occurred in1856 and 1866. Hence, we question both past and current case studies. On the one hand, past case studiesanalysis lead us to question current practices. On the other hand, we consider in our past cases studiesaspects which seem to he rarely studied, and more precisely the issue of public participation in former times
With, Lauriane. "Approche géohistorique de la gestion et de la prévention du risque d'inondation : le cas de la vallée de la Lauch (Haut-Rhin) de 1778 à nos jours". Thesis, Mulhouse, 2014. http://www.theses.fr/2014MULH4452/document.
Pełny tekst źródłaAmong the natural hazards, the flood risk is the most frequent and the most harmful in France with about 50 % of the municipalities exposed. In the Haut-Rhin department, 80 % of the municipalities are concerned. We have chosen this subject because no historic study exists about floods in Alsace and especially about the Lauch valley, where the last big events have taken place. In front of the impossibility to eradicate the risk, the Man committed palliative actions to protect himself through history. How have the historic events been taken into consideration in policies of management and prevention of the flood risk in the Lauch valley for more than two centuries ? To answer this question, we have used a diachronic approach which begins with the disastrous event of February 1990, and adopted an interdisciplinary method. Based on an important corpus of sources, this thesis puts in perspective the evolution of the management of the floods over the period considered according to the hydrological events restored via a regressive method, the stakes, the very contrasted political contexts and the actors, over the local, national and European plans. This thesis is part of a logic of applied reasoning and has for ambition to improve the information about the phenomena and to constitute a "basis of scientific knowledge" for a better control of the risk. This way, it seems fundamental to know flood hazard to be able to anticipate it, to manage it better and to protect ourselves
Ndoulou, Loubamono Evelyne Solange. "Risques naturels d'inondation et problèmes d'environnement au Gabon". Paris 1, 2000. http://www.theses.fr/2000PA010507.
Pełny tekst źródłaHeinzlef, Charlotte. "Modélisation d'indicateurs de résilience urbaine face au risque d'inondation : co-construction d'un système spatial à la décision pour contribuer à l'opérationnalisation du concept de résilience Assessing and mapping urban resilience to floods with respect to cascading effects through critical infrastructure networks » Operationalizing urban resilience to floods in embanked territories – Application in Avignon, Provence Alpes Côte d’azur region A spatial decision support system for enhancing resilience to floods. Bridging resilience modelling and geovisualization techniques Operating urban resilience strategies to face climate change and associated risks: some advances from theory to application in Canada and France". Thesis, Avignon, 2019. http://www.theses.fr/2019AVIG1197.
Pełny tekst źródłaIn a context of climate change, increased urban flooding and increased uncertainty, urbanmanagers are forced to innovate to design appropriate risk management strategies. Among thesestrategies, making cities resilient has become an imperative. The concept of resilience is amultidisciplinary concept that defines the ability of a system to absorb a disturbance and then recoverits functions. This concept refers to technical, urban, social, architectural, architectural, economic andpolitical innovation and calls into question traditional risk management systems. This injunction toinnovation is perfectly adapted to the urban, economic, political, social and ecological complexity ofthe contemporary world. As a result, the concept of resilience is integrated with urban sprawl issues andassociated risks. However, despite this theoretical and conceptual adequacy, resilience remains complexto integrate into the practices of urban planners and territorial actors. Its multitude of definitions andapproaches have contributed to its abstraction and lack of operationalization.In response to this observation, this research aims to address these operational gaps by buildinga spatial decision support system to clarify and promote the integration of the concept into urbanpractices. The idea behind this approach is that urban resilience embodies the abilities and capacities ofa city and its population to develop before, during and after a disruptive event in order to limit itsnegative impacts. This scientific positioning therefore makes it possible to analyze urban resilience as acontinuum, highlighting proactive capacities that the urban system must develop in order to (re)act inthe face of flooding. This work was based on a socio-economic partnership with the City of Avignonand its GIS Service (Geographic Information System). The approach made it possible to build threemeasurement indicators to address the urban, technical and social resilience of the Avignon area. Theseindicators have made it possible to acquire information on the variables defining potential resilience thatwould foster the emergence of an adequate response to a natural disaster and more precisely to an urbanflood. The use of geovisualization techniques has made it possible to visualize treatments and results inorder to explain the approach to urban managers. At the same time, consultation workshops were heldto present and discuss the results obtained through the indicators with critical infrastructure managersand managers.The co-construction of these indicators, in order to build an analysis and knowledge aroundurban resilience, followed by the implementation of workshops with stakeholders in the territory, inorder to promote the territorial decision-making process, has made it possible to develop a culture ofresilience. This spatial decision support system has therefore made it possible to pool theoretical andpractical knowledge on urban risk and resilience issues in order to reach the consensus necessary fordecision-making and the operationalization of resilience
Garry, Gérald. "Le risque d'inondation en France : recherche d'une approche globale du risque d'inondation et de sa traduction cartographique dans une perspective de prévention". Paris 1, 1993. http://www.theses.fr/1993PA010576.
Pełny tekst źródłaThis search is an analysis of the risk of flood in its whole; it stresses the importance of teledetection and cartography. It will go through, in historical dynamic, a range of different space and time analysis : - natural and anthropic factors participating to the formation of the floods and the swellings of rivers. - the impact of such floods on the geographical environment, on its activities, goods and people. - the grading of these studies and cartography will enable us to define zones of vulnerability according to the land occupancy. - measures of prevention and management necessary to determine. Thus, this research intends to show that this risk is a consequence of numerous interactions, the different parts of which belong to various scientific or technical fields, and that a sensible approach of its mecanisms can only be made through general and interdisciplinary approach. It is also meant - by the choice of the examples given - to be the attempt of a synthesis of the main situations which can be seen in France
Alaeddine, Houssein. "Un modèle d'optimisation spatio-temporel pour l'évacuation de la population exposée aux catastrophes naturelles : projet ACCELL : évaluation spatio-temporelle de l'ACCessibilité d'Enjeux localisés en situation d'inondation sur le bassin de la Loire". Thesis, Tours, 2014. http://www.theses.fr/2014TOUR1802/document.
Pełny tekst źródłaThe importance of managing an urban site threatened or affected by flooding requires the development of effective evacuation systems. An effective evacuation system has to take into account some constraints such as the transportation traffic which plays an important role as well as others such as the accessibility, necessary human resources and material equipment (vehicles, assembly points, etc...). The main objective of this work is to bring assistance to the technical services and brigade forces in terms of accessibility by providing itineraries with respect to rescue operations and the evacuation of people and goods.We consider the evacuation of a middle size area, exposed to a risk, and more precisely to a risk of flooding. In case of flooding event, the most of inhabitants will be evacuated by themselves, ie., using their personal vehicles. Considered case here, the flooding can be forecast in advance, and then the population has few days (2-4) to evacuate. Our aimis to build an evacuation plan, ie., fixing for each individual the date of departure and the path to reach the assembly point (also called shelter) associated. Evacuation plan must avoid congestion on the roads of evacuation network.Here, we present a spatio-temporal optimization model for the evacuation of the population exposed to natural disasters, and more particularly to a flood risk
Wulamu, Maihepireti. "Les risques d'inondation dans la région du Xinjiang (Chine) : cas du Karakash-Darya". Aix-Marseille 1, 2010. http://www.theses.fr/2010AIX10036.
Pełny tekst źródłaLétocart, Aurélien. "La gestion des risques contractuels". Amiens, 2011. http://www.theses.fr/2011AMIE0051.
Pełny tekst źródłaLafrance, Étienne. "La gestion des risques : la perception des risques des agriculteurs québécois". Master's thesis, Université Laval, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11794/26426.
Pełny tekst źródłaVargas, Bringas Rafael. "Modélisation hydrologique déterministe pour l'évaluation des risques d'inondation dans les grands environnements urbains : application à Mexico". Thesis, Université Côte d'Azur (ComUE), 2016. http://www.theses.fr/2016AZUR4115/document.
Pełny tekst źródłaAccording to the World Risk Report released by the United Nations University Institute for Environment and Human Security, Mexico has a vulnerability of 46% and a lack of coping capacity of 76% in terms of disaster risk. One of those disaster risks is flooding which poses a serious challenge to the development and the lives of the inhabitants of Mexico. Mexico City is facing problems of flooding in some areas at certain times of the year, causing important losses and damages on properties and residents including some casualties. Therefore, it is important to carry out a flood risk assessment in the catchment of Mexico City and estimate damages of probable flood events. However, limited data of observed discharges and water depths in the main rivers of the city are available, and this represents an obstacle for the understanding of flooding in Mexico City. For these reason, several studies have to be carried out in order to have a clear understanding of the catchment, which involve, meteorological and hydrological/hidraulic studies, rainfall distribution, runoff analysis, flood risk and vulnerability, and this studies allow the estimation of direct and indirect damages to the economy, to assets and to human life. The premise of this study is that with the limited data and resources available, the catchment can be represented to an acceptable degree by the construction of a deterministic hydrological model of the Mexico City basin. The objective of the developed tool is to provide an efficient support to management of the flood processes by predicting the behavior of the catchment for different rainfall events and flood scenarios
Loss, Frédéric. "Cinq essais sur la gestion des risques". Toulouse 1, 2001. http://www.theses.fr/2001TOU10096.
Pełny tekst źródłaThe first chapter provides a survey of theoretical and empirical literature on firms' hedging activities. The second chapter studies the effect of firms interactions on their hedging policies, when the capital market is imperfect. The third chapter analyses the firms' hedging demand where hedging is used to reduce agency costs between a principal and agent(s). The fourth chapter studies the effect of the possibility to create his own business on the current manager's behaviour. Finally, the last chapter looks at the risk management of a government due to his activity of control of agreements between firms
Mseddi, Slim. "Gestion des risques et valeur de l'entreprise". Cergy-Pontoise, 2008. http://biblioweb.u-cergy.fr/theses/08CERG0352.pdf.
Pełny tekst źródłaThe purpose of this thesis is to show the importance of the activities of the risk management in the context of the theory of the firm and the asymmetry of information. It tries, initially, to better apprehend the idea of coordination of the financial, operating and business risks and their impacts on firm value through a test of modelling of the value according to the risks and an empirical validation of the model. In the second time, we try to measure the exposures to the risks of interest rate, exchange rates and commodities of a sample of 403 non-financial USA firm. The confrontation of these measurements to the information published in the business reports will enable us to bring a judgement on the exactitude of the exposures. Finely, in the third time, and contrary to the previous studies, our thesis provides a distinctive methodological contribution to the level of the determination of the variables of hedging. More precisely, the recourse to performance models tested on two sub samples, those which are hedged the risks and those which are not hedged, will enable us to determine the distinctive and relevant variables for carrying out a well strategy of hedging
Dabbebi, Oussema. "Gestion des Risques dans les Infrastructures VoIP". Phd thesis, Université de Lorraine, 2013. http://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00875141.
Pełny tekst źródłaDabbebi, Oussema. "Gestion des risques dans les infrastructures VoIP". Electronic Thesis or Diss., Université de Lorraine, 2013. http://www.theses.fr/2013LORR0044.
Pełny tekst źródłaIP telephony has become a new paradigm that permits to establish and transmit voice communications with IP networks. Its deployment has been accelerated by the standardization of dedicated signaling protocols. However, VoIP services are faced to several security issues which are inherited from the IP layer or specific to the service. A large variety of protection mechanisms are available to deal with them. However, IP telephony is a real-time service which requires high network performance. The application of countermeasures may significantly affect such a critical service. Risk management provides new perspectives for this issue. This thesis deals with the application of risk management in VoIP infrastructures. The first axis consists in the automation of the risk management process in VoIP enterprise network. In this context, we have developed a mathematical model for assessing risk, a set of progressive countermeasures to counter attackers and mitigation algorithms that evaluate the risk level and takes the decision to activate a subset of countermeasures. To improve our strategy, we have coupled it with an anomaly detection system based on SVM and a self-configuration mechanism which provides feedback about countermeasure efficiency. The second axis deals with the extension of our adaptive risk strategy to P2PSIP infrastructures. We have implemented a specific risk model and a dedicated set of countermeasures with respect to its peer-to-peer nature. For that, we have identified attack sources and established different threat scenarios. We have analyzed the RELOAD framework and proposed trust mechanisms to address its residual attacks. Finally, the third axis focuses on VoIP services in the cloud where we have proposed a risk strategy and several strategies to deploy and apply countermeasures
Raïs, Hassen. "Gestion des risques : mesures et stratégies : analyse empirique de la gestion des risques dans les entreprises non financières françaises". Thesis, Toulouse 1, 2012. http://www.theses.fr/2012TOU10063/document.
Pełny tekst źródłaThis thesis is in line with empirical research on the determinants of riskmanagement (Bodnar et al, 2001, Grant and Marshall, 2002, Bailly, El Masry,2003 Benkhediri, 2006, Judge, 2006). These studies test different hypothesesto explain the risk management strategies implemented by non-financial firms.The contribution of this thesis is the building of a database including not onlyquantitative risk management strategies of 400 non-financial French firms butalso the organization of the risk management function.Empirical analyzes conducted on these data the following results:• The sophistication of the organization of the risk management function isdetermined primarily by its sector, diversification, liquidity and size.• The sophistication of the organization of the risk management of a firm is animportant explanatory factor for the sophistication of its risk managementstrategy• The lack of hedging by external derivatives, is not the fact of ignoring therisks, but results in 25% of cases, an active strategy of internal assurance.• The hedging strategy by derivatives is determined by the importance of therisk management function, the growth of the company, tax benefits and size.• The use of insurance for hedging operational risks is "U" shaped distributionin relation to company size: the smallest and the largest firms use moreinsurance than medium
Beau, Pauline. "Dispositifs de gestion et risques psychosociaux : une étude qualitative des risques humains et de leur gestion dans les organisations". Thesis, Paris Sciences et Lettres (ComUE), 2017. http://www.theses.fr/2017PSLED072/document.
Pełny tekst źródłaSince the late 2000s, psychosocial risks (job strain, anxiety, burn out…) are a debating point. The literature explains it by the dissemination of a results-oriented culture which demands more and more to people and controls their performance by using management tools. Furthermore, to prevent psychosocial risks organizations also use management tools. That's why we focus our attention on the use of management tools in organizations to study the complex links between management control and psychosocial risks. Thus, our thesis aim to answer the following research question: to what extent management tools participate to psychosocial risks, to their creation and to their prevention ? To do this, we have first made an exploratory study and then four case studies in private and public organizations. So our qualitative design is composed by collecting 67 semi-structured interviews, two non-participatory observations and internal and external documents. By studying mutual relationship between perceptions of reality, individuals and management tools, we explore the complex mechanisms binding results-oriented culture, management tools and psychosocial risks
Lalanne, Vincent. "Gestion des risques appliquée aux systèmes d’information distribués". Thesis, Pau, 2013. http://www.theses.fr/2013PAUU3052/document.
Pełny tekst źródłaIn this thesis we discuss the application of risk management to distributed information systems. We handle problems of interoperability and securisation of the exchanges within DRM systems and we propose the implementation of this system for the company: it needs to permit the distribution of self-protected contents. We then present the (our) participation in the creation of an innovative company which emphasizes on the security of information, in particular the management of risks through the ISO/IEC 27005:2011 standard. We present risks related to the use of services, highlighting in particular the ones which are not technological: we approach inheritent risks in clouds (provider failure, etc ...) but also the more insidious aspects of espionage and intrusion in personal data (Case PRISM in June 2013). In the last section, we present a concept of a DRM company which uses metadata to deploy settings in usage control models. We propose a draft formalization of metadata necessary for the implementation of a security policy and guarantee respect of regulations and legislation
Cao, Ruxian. "Gestion financière des risques : en agriculture analyses dynamiques". Rennes, Agrocampus Ouest, 2014. http://www.theses.fr/2014NSARE036.
Pełny tekst źródłaThe applications of financial markets on the agricultural commodities to mitigate the impacts generated by risk and uncertainty factors have been discussed from the pas decades. This thesis mainly focuses on the contribution of this debate with two motivations : the one aims to study farmers’references towards risky outcomes in various market circumstances and context, and the other one relates to the study which aims to assess the physical welfare impacts generated by new uncertainty in the presence of the nonrational anticipation of farmers. According to the related economic literatures, farmer’s risk aversion and also the assumption of non-rational anticipation. Our first simulation results show that in the dynamic context, the relationship between the parameter of farmers’ utility and value function is complicated when they have several decisions variables, but it is does not change when they face some frictions. Moreover, our second results emphasize that it is much more important to identifying the average physical impact than its variability. These results also indicate that the rate of pure time preference of farmers more significantly affects the economic impacts than their risk aversion parameters. Finally, we indicate that it is better to learn earlier the physical impact of uncertainties
Laurent, Jean-Paul. "Gestion de nouveaux produits et de risques financiers". Paris 1, 1997. http://www.theses.fr/1997PA010053.
Pełny tekst źródłaChemarin, Sophie. "Analyse critique de la gestion des nouveaux risques". Palaiseau, Ecole polytechnique, 2008. http://www.theses.fr/2008EPXX0036.
Pełny tekst źródłaMERCIER, MARIE FRANCOISE. "Information et gestion des risques des produits derives". Paris 12, 1999. http://www.theses.fr/1999PA122007.
Pełny tekst źródłaChappel, Claude. "De la nécessité de la gestion des risques". Rennes 1, 1986. http://www.theses.fr/1986REN11032.
Pełny tekst źródłaLambert, Jérémy. "L'audit de risques en entreprise". Thesis, Bordeaux, 2014. http://www.theses.fr/2014BORD0337/document.
Pełny tekst źródłaIn business, risk is omnipresent, essential to the creation of value while at the same time fearedbecause of the consequences it can produce. However, for any business that subscribes to apreventative risk management approach, risk can prove to be a real performance lever. In this way, abusiness risk audit is a risk management tool that enables businesses, through analysis, evaluation andtreatment of identified risks, to obtain a global vision of the different feared events to which it isexposed. Also, carrying out a risk audit enables businesses to comply with the numerous legalobligations relating to preventive risk management, by which they are expressly boundThese obligations are necessary to introduce more transparency in the risk management of companies,to ensure the trust that is essential the operation of the financial markets, to protect employees’ healthand security, and to prevent major technological disasters. However, the legislator does not provide aspecific method that enables businesses to comply with all of these obligations. The risk audit,inspired by risk management and internal control methods, is designed to fill this gap and enablebusinesses to comply with the requirements of the commercial code, of the financial markets authority,of labour law and the law applicable to establishments classified for environmental protection
Loisel, Stéphane. "Contribution à la gestion quantitative des risques en assurance". Habilitation à diriger des recherches, Université Claude Bernard - Lyon I, 2010. http://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00540617.
Pełny tekst źródłaSuarez-Thomas, Sabine. "Contre les Risques Psychosociaux : un dispositif de gestion "capacitant"". Thesis, Pau, 2016. http://www.theses.fr/2016PAUU2002/document.
Pełny tekst źródłaThis research aims at offering management methods and tools to prevent mental and somatic health diseases in the workforce. Chief executive officers and managers appear to be helpless in the face of rising psychosocial disorders and their response rarely goes beyond the assessment stage of psychosocial risks’ factors. This thesis is built upon two research-intervention projects. One took place in a b-to-b smallscale consultancy venture, whilst the second was set in a multinational and cooperative agrifood firm. Researchers and company staff jointly developed practical actions to address their initial need for prevention by transforming situations in using ergon omics-oriented information. Staff management is no longer centered on seeking the agreement of the workforce with managers’ projects. Instead the company executives organize everyone’s occupation by dealing with the gap between the “real done job” and the prescribed one. Authority istranslated into authorization of doing a “well done job”. To this end, allowance for discussions on the occupational organization and ways to do the job has been made, and results of those discussions are formally integrated in the management device. Overall, managers are now aiming for the joint personal development of staff in addition to the firmdevelopment
Saffache, Pascal. "Le littoral martiniquais : milieux, dynamiques et gestion des risques". Antilles-Guyane, 1998. http://www.theses.fr/1998AGUY0035.
Pełny tekst źródłaThe evolution of Martinique's coastline is a source of worriness. Indeed, from 1955 to 1996, more than 90 kms of coast have receded of about 20 meters in average. At the bottom of bays and culs-de-sac, hundreds of thousands tons of sediments have piled up, thus encouraging the rising of depths and the necrosis of corals. The phenomena have continually grown ; until then, none had studied the various components of the coastline and their modes of functioning. Martinique's coastline is made up of four distinct physical entities : sandy and muddy coves, rivers and cliffs mouths. These four entities result from the same influences : earth, sea and submarine influences. The erosion of the septentrional coastline shows two characteristics. First, geological, bathymetric and hydrodynamic elements combine to erode the coast. Second, man's influence just amplifies those mentioned above. The modes of fattening of culs-de-sac are simpler, for they result from the erosive process of slopes basins completed by the fixing influence of plants growing on salt grounds and more usually by the geographic confinement. In spite of the disturbances created by these dynamics, there exists no regional policy of coast conservation. We propose to remedy it by modelling the coastline, by estimating the cost of coast damages and by systematically studying the environment before any regional development
Raggad, Bechir. "Gestion des risques : théorie et application au marché pétrolier". Aix-Marseille 2, 2007. http://www.theses.fr/2007AIX24022.
Pełny tekst źródłaThe originality of this thesis lies in the transposition of the methods founded on Extreme Value Theory (EVT), developed initially for the analysis of the risks incurred in varied fields, to the analysis of oil market. This contribution is intended to make for the deficit of work dedicated to the measurement and the quantitative analysis of the risks, in term of the Value at Risk (VaR), related to the adverse movements on the market of the crude. The purpose of this thesis is to further explore the usefulness of EVT models in forecasting Value at Risk in oil market. These models are compared to the performances of other well-known modeling techniques on VaR literature. Results show that Conditional EVT and Filtered Historical Simulation procedures offer a major improvement over the standard methods. Furthermore, GARCH (1,1)-t model may give equally good results. In a bivarate setting, we study the dependence structure of extreme returns between spot and futures’oil data. We apply two classes of MGARCH models: the Constant Conditional Correlation (CCC) proposed by Bollerslev (1990) and the Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) by Engle (2002). The results show that the assumption of constant conditional correlation was not supported. We also conclude that the shocks to the volatilities in the spot and futures’ returns are complementary rather than substitutable. By comparing these results with those obtained with copula approach, we find the estimates of extreme correlations of returns are higher than those obtained from the MGARCH models. The main advantage of copula is that it generates dependence measures even if the multivariate Gaussian distribution does not apply
Ohana, Steve. "Deux contributions en gestion des risques de matières premières". Paris 9, 2006. https://portail.bu.dauphine.fr/fileviewer/index.php?doc=2006PA090021.
Pełny tekst źródłaThis thesis consists of two independent parts. The first part deals with the dynamic management of physical commodity portfolios, in an illiquid market and under the presence of non traded volume risks. In this framework, we propose a new type of dynamic value measurement for commodity portfolios, which leads to time-consistent decision plannings. A simple numerical experiment illustrates how this new valuation tool can help the portfolio manager assess the synergies between her physical assets and control the risks on final and intermediate wealth. The second part proposes an original model for the joint evolution of two commodity forward curves, capturing at the same time the global and local dependence structures between two economically related commodities. The model is applied here to the US gas and oil markets
Salles, Jean-Michel. "Décision économique et gestion collective des risques globaux d'environnement". Paris, EHESS, 1993. http://www.theses.fr/1993EHES0071.
Pełny tekst źródłaThis work explores the ground and the conditions that allows economic analysis to provide suitable theorical and methodological frameworks for the social process of policy making in the field of global environnemental threats. In a first part, three theoretic frameworks are explored that provide the main elements of problematisation : the question of hte legitimacy of social choices and the status of economic rationality; the question of valuation and regulation of externalities; the question of risk analysis and treatment in the models of decision theory. The second part contains three case studies that have specially stressed that field during the last decade: the fight against acid rains and forest decline in europe; the contr0versies about the protection of ozone layer; the mitigation of climate change related to anthropogenic increase of greenhouse effect. In the third one, we aim at relating the socio-technic processes analysed from a positive point of view to normative economics in order to point out a serie of discrepancies between a stylised representation of global environmental risks and the analysis of environmental risks in economic theory. In this way, an interpretative framework for "decision under controversy" is proposed that emphasizes the stakes of anticipation processes. At lpast, after having analysed the role actually played by economic analysis in decision making processes, we make some propositions in favour of a more reasoned use of economic tools in the national and international deliberative processes of the social management of global environmental threats
Najib, Mehdi. "Gestion des risques liés au transport des matières dangereuses". Thesis, Le Havre, 2014. http://www.theses.fr/2014LEHA0016/document.
Pełny tekst źródłaThe international trade evolution and the growth of intercontinental commercial exchanges have created an ongoing need for goods’ transport. In this context, maritime transport knew an enormous craze due to its efficiency for shipping large quantities of goods. This mode of transport has been revolutionized by the introduction of containers and the development of new multimodal platforms specialized in container handling: Container Terminals (CT). These CTs are subject to a set of constraints and requirements that must be satisfied in terms of efficiency, safety, and dependability. This thesis aims to manage the risks related to containers transport in a CT taking into account the collaborative aspect of the supply chain and the activities carried out before the containers’ delivery. Furthermore, it tackles reconciliation of the risk management aspect and performance aspect in CT. The implementation is based on a multi-paradigm approach for the urbanization of GOST traceability system (Geo-localization, Optimization, Securing, and Transport) and the development of a Container Terminal Management System (CTMS). For the risk management related to containers transport, we proposed a tracking and tracing solution based on the urbanization of GOST system, intelligent product concept and service-oriented architectures. This solution aims to improve the collection of information needed for risk management, which are provided by the supply chain actors. For this purpose, first of all, we propose an urbanization of the GOST system to fit t risk management requirements. In a second step, we define an improved intelligent product concept to develop an appropriate intelligent container model. Finally, we used the model driven architectures to automate code generation of web services needed to collect traceability data. For this purpose, two approaches for interfacing the intelligent container to different web services have been proposed. The first is based on services orchestration using business process. The second is founded on the configuration of an Enterprise Service Bus (ESB). All these solutions are integrated in the CTMS system. This system is developed using the Agent technology and aims to integrate risk management approach and the evaluation of the CT performance. Our risk management approach is based on two processes. The first deals with the suspicious containers targeting and it is based on an expert system enriched by a forced learning method: the Apriori algorithm. The second supports the verification of spatial segregation during storage. Finally, a case study was carried out to validate the proposed solution as well as a simulation to evaluate the performance
Antri-Bouzar, Chahnez. "La gestion des risques liés à la pollution médicamenteuse". Thesis, Université Côte d'Azur (ComUE), 2017. http://www.theses.fr/2017AZUR0025/document.
Pełny tekst źródłaThis thesis deals with the legal management of risks related to drug pollution. Nowadays, scientific studies indicate the emergence of drug residues in our environment. Nevertheless, uncertainties remain regarding the actual risks of these residues on the human health and on the environment. Given this observation, current policy makes use of the precautionary principle in order to control this emerging pollutant, but these measures are in the making. In light of the above, this work leads to a review of the legal tools that can be used to manage risks throughout the life cycle of the drug, from the its creation’s molecule to its pseudo-elimination by treatment plants. More precisely, the demonstration attempts to retrace the recent awareness of drug pollution by environmental policy. In a first step, we highlight the emergence of a new risk generated by the drug and its impact on public health policy. In a second phase, we analyze the preventive measures that have been recently undertaken by the government. the lack of a legal understanding concerning the environmental impact generated by drug residues will be mentioned. First, gaps in the regulations governing the medicinal product as a pollutant are identified. Then, regulatory deficiencies for drug-generating activities are being addressed
Dieltiens, Baptiste. "Contributions à la gestion des risques en assurance vie". Electronic Thesis or Diss., Lyon, 2021. http://www.theses.fr/2021LYSE1135.
Pełny tekst źródłaRisk management is a major issue for the piloting of an insurance company. The increasing amount of data, the sophistication of models and the growing computing power now allow actuaries, risk managers and data scientists to refine the knowledge of their policyholder portfolios and the underlying risks. This is the context of this thesis, which aims to contribute to the understanding and modeling of biometric and behavioral risks in life insurance, through three chapters introduced and contextualized in a general introduction. Chapter 1 focuses on free payments on life insurance contracts. We propose a methodology based on machine learning to pilot them efficiently: the model, based on the Gradient Boosting algorithm, relies on variables related to past payments as well as variables related to the product in question and its business plan, and we show that it gives better results than a more classical methodology based on the use of time series. In addition, the analysis of the model via the framework proposed by SHAP (Shapley Additive Explanations) makes it possible to highlight certain stylized facts; finally, the study at a finer scale completes the work and questions the relationship between payments and surrenders or arbitrages. Chapter 2 deals with life insurance transfers, which allow a saver to invest money in a new contract while retaining some of the advantages of the original contract. In particular, we are interested in the Fourgous and PACTE transfers, which we present; we highlight the main common points and major differences of those transfers. We then propose a model of the Fourgous amendment using dynamic logistic regression and analyze, given the initial observations, to what the extent the lessons that can be drawn from it are applicable to the PACTE law. Finally, we broaden the reflection by discussing the legislative framework and its potential impacts in terms of policyholder behavior. Finally, Chapter 3 is devoted to the risk of longevity, and focuses in particular on an extreme assumption, not really considered in actuarial science: transhumanism. This assumption considers a potential gigantic improvement in longevity through the use of science and technology. After discussing the state of the art on longevity and all the related subjects (life expectancy, maximum biological age in particular) and the main hypotheses on its future evolution, thus highlighting the lack of consensus and the complexity of this subject, we analyze the transhumanist assumption in more details and discuss its ins and outs
Amann, Bruno. "Propriété et maîtrise des risques dans l'entreprise". Toulouse 1, 1993. http://www.theses.fr/1993TOU10037.
Pełny tekst źródłaThe history of the concept of ownership is intertwined with the history of mankind. There are many ways of understanding what ownership means within a firm. One can use ownership rights as a tool to cope with uncertainty. The first part of the thesis reviews the different ways in which ownership can be understood. Ownership rights give control rights. In turn the use of such rights can be controlled, using other ownership rights. Ownership is examined with regards to he struggle for power within the firm or between firms and markets. The second part of the thesis proposes contribution to a general theory of ownership in firms. Our analysis proceeds in two steps. In the first step we review the evolution of the understanding of ownership within the firm. In the second step we use this review to lay the foundation of an analysis of ownership in firms
Michel-Kerjan, Erwann. "Contributions à l'économie des "risques à grande échelle" : essais sur le partage des risques catastrophiques". Aix-Marseille 2, 2002. http://www.theses.fr/2002AIX24010.
Pełny tekst źródłaHérault, Alexis. "Création d'un système d'information pour la gestion des risques volcaniques". Phd thesis, Université Paris-Est, 2008. http://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00470546.
Pełny tekst źródłaPromsopha, Gwendoline. "Allocation des terres agricoles et gestion des risques de subsistance". Thesis, Paris 10, 2012. http://www.theses.fr/2012PA100169/document.
Pełny tekst źródłaThis PhD research proposes to study the relationship between informal risk-coping strategies and the nature of land allocation. Informal risk-coping mechanisms are studied here as one potential factor in the failure of land market reforms and the persistence of `non-market' exchange -gifts or free loans. In particular, we show that the bipolar view of land tenure, which opposes `customary' to `market' transfers, does not adequately approach informal risk-coping motivations in land transfers. Two hypotheses are analysed: first, in the absence of insurance markets and public social protection, land has a `safety net' function and households do not sell land but prefer other types of transfers (which retain part of the land's `safety net' function). Secondly, informal risk-coping leads households to participate to hybrid forms of transfers (neither market nor non-market) allowing to combine risk-coping motives with other types of economic necessities. Those two hypotheses are then looked at empirically in two case studies: in Vietnam, where households sell their land only if they are economically stable or have suffered income shocks (distress sales); and in Thailand, where a survey has been done among permanent rural-urban migrants. This surveyconfirms that informal risk-coping slows down land sale markets and sustains transfers such as free-loans. Finally, the Thai data identify traditional risk-sharing institutions in the allocation of land, especially through intra-family free-loans or `disguised rentals'. As a main conclusion, insurance and public protection policies could have a key role in the evaluation of land allocation systems in Thailand and Vietnam
Bakkour, Darine. "La gouvernance d'un système : vers une gestion dynamique des risques". Thesis, Montpellier 1, 2013. http://www.theses.fr/2013MON10024.
Pełny tekst źródłaThe increase in large-scale climate, technological, sanitary, and many other types of losses, challenges us on the governance of the concerned systems, the choices made to hedge these risks and implement prevention measures. The question which animated our research is : to what extent the governance of a system promotes a better risk management?Our empirical analysis is based on two case studies which focus on the governance of a system while facing catastrophic risks for first one, and on common risks for the other. On the one hand, catastrophic risks are known to be highly improbable but with possible serious consequences. The dynamic of the adaptive governance system facing catastrophic risks underlines the need for a (dynamic) flexible approach. We therefore suggest an assessment framework for the adaptive capacity of a system in the field of catastrophic risks. On the other hand, common risks affect the whole population. We consider that the adaptive governance in a deliberative democracy refers to the governance paradigm which addresses common risks whose consequences spread out into the future. Thus, it induces decision makers to look at the long run. The dilemma consists in taking (now) decisions (i.e. Risk, in the general sense of the word) whose effects (or consequences) are only felt in the future. The governance of a system shall promote risk management. Our research is structured into three parts (i.e. "Governance and risk", "Governance of a system exposed to a catastrophic risk" and "Governance of a system exposed to a common risk"), each composed of three chapters. The ultimate objective of the management of risks, or even uncertainties, which characterize our contemporary societies is a legitimate reason for having dynamic modes of governance that prompt different actors to work together in various ways, in order to meet challenges they face
Fournier, Yoann Kimakhe Saïd. "Anatomie mandibulaire et techniques chirurgicales en implantologie gestion des risques /". [S.l.] : [s.n.], 2009. http://castore.univ-nantes.fr/castore/GetOAIRef?idDoc=55056.
Pełny tekst źródłaEl, Fadil Jalal. "La gestion des risques de sous-traitance manufacturière en Chine". Thèse, Université du Québec à Trois-Rivières, 2012. http://depot-e.uqtr.ca/4436/1/030309383.pdf.
Pełny tekst źródłaTurlure, Jean-Marc. "Gestion et analyse des risques dans la prévention des attentats". Toulouse 1, 2013. http://www.theses.fr/2013TOU10003.
Pełny tekst źródłaSince the end of the Cold War, bomb attacks have experienced a steady increase, with very impressive peaks, mainly related to the explosion of crime in the world, but also to the emergence of pronounced international terrorism in several forms. Terrifying pictures of the Bali bombings, in April 2002 (90 dead) ; Spain March 11, 2004 (191 dead and 1,9000 injured) ; Great Britain, July 7, 2005 (56 dead and over 700 injured) ; Shaqbadar, Parkistan, Friday May 13, 2011, against a police training center (80 dead and 140 wounded) and Sana’s in Yemen May 21, 2012 (96 dead and 300 injured) attest to this irrational violence. Today the targets are not only military or institutional, representatives of the rule of law, but also civil, anonymous or symbolic. To fight this threat, a prevention policy is absolutely essential. Establishing a policy of prevention against terrorist threats or the discovery of suspicious vehicles means being able to identify feared events, to manage and analyze the risk and to define the actions to reduce the danger to an acceptable level. This thesis aims to define and establish risk management benchmarks addressing the problems of bomb attacks and the dangers they represent