Rozprawy doktorskie na temat „Farm valuation”

There is increasing global concern about the potential long term consequences of loss of domestic animal diversity. International agreements such as the Convention on Biological Diversity encourage the design of policies that convey economic incentives for conservation of genetic resources employed in agriculture. Of particular interest is the situation in developing countries where on one hand, livestock make the greatest contribution to human livelihoods and food security while on the other, genetic erosion has placed many adapted breeds that survive well in low input agriculture and extreme environments, typical of these countries, at risk of loss. An important goal is the development of policies and strategies for conservation and sustainable utilisation of these resources. Economic valuation tools for farm animal genetic resources (AGR) would contribute to this goal by providing information for decision making. It is from this background that this study, with special reference to indigenous cattle in Kenya, focuses on the nature of values associated with AGR and the methodological approaches that can be used to assign value, as a prerequisite to improved understanding of some of the forces that are driving their decline and designing well targeted economic incentives for their conservation and sustainable management. The empirical approach involves a systematic investigation of preferences over cattle traits and breeds in Kenyan livestock markets. Revealed preference (market transactions) and stated preference (choice experiment) surveys were conducted concurrently amongst the same population of respondents. The results of the two approaches are first compared with the aim of assessing the performance of the stated preference approach in valuing cattle traits through an external test of preference consistency. The choice experiment data is subsequently employed to estimate a series of discrete choice models aimed at characterising heterogeneity in valuations across and within various segments of buyers. The study demonstrates the potential usefulness of choice experiments in valuing genetic traits expressed by livestock and provides empirical evidence to suggest that breed preferences are generally not in favour of indigenous cattle in Kenya. The implications for conservation and breeding policies are drawn.

Farms are highly heterogeneous and never identical. No two farms are ever alike in terms of (1) the basic resources, land, labour, or capital that are available, (2) the way these resources or factors of production are combined, or (3) in terms of the amounts of various crops and livestock produced. There are numerous factors that influence the price of a farm and some of these factors are not monetary related. This makes the task of the valuer complex, and it increases the possibility of large differences in the estimated market value determined and the actual selling price. The development and use of AVM (Automated Valuation Method) models in the valuation of especially residential property, is a worldwide phenomenon. The majority of AVM models use MRA (Multiple Regression Analysis) as a basis. The accuracy of a MRA relies heavily on the quality and accuracy of the data that are used. Thus, the availability of quality and accurate data has a significant impact on the potential accuracy of a MRA. Accurate MRA valuation estimates will be fair to individual farm owners regarding their municipal tax assessments and it will lead to a wider use of MRAs for the valuation of farms, with the associated benefits of lower valuation costs and speedier valuations, especially by financial institutions. This study analyses the unique and distinctive attributes of farms, which must be taken into account when a MRA model is developed. By following a stepwise regression approach, a regression model is developed which is fairly accurate, but it does not achieve a high level of accuracy. Furthermore, the results of the study show that it is difficult to have enough appropriate and accurate data available to develop a regression analysis for agricultural property to satisfy accuracy requirements. Although it is difficult, it is possible to develop MRA models that are fairly accurate. Therefore, if MRA models are currently used for the municipal valuation of farms, which are not fairly accurate, it should be possible to improve the accuracy. However, maximum accuracy cannot be achieved with MRA models. Thus, it cannot replace a valuation done by a skilled and knowledgeable professional valuer, when maximum accuracy is required.
Dissertation (MSc)--University of Pretoria, 2017.
Construction Economics
MSc
Unrestricted

Master of Science
Department of Agricultural Economics
Mykel R. Taylor
Land value research has been conducted over many decades with efforts being focused on a broad spectrum of topics encompassing many different issues. The research in this thesis will focus on understanding the relationship between net farm income, cash rent, and land value. This research could provide insight and direction in determining future land value behavior. Understanding land prices is important to many different segments of the agricultural industry. Those involved in the industry want to know where land values are going and what the future looks like. Although certain segments may not be directly affected by land value movements, if value decreases the environment of the agriculture industry is changed. Farmers and ranchers are interested in future land values as they make purchase and sale decisions or as they consider future growth of their operation. Agribusinesses understand the affect a decrease in land value would do to farmer’s decisions regarding capital purchases. Additionally, agriculture finance institutions are interested in the future movement of land value as they are concerned about the affects adverse movements in land value would have on their customer’s balance sheet and ultimately their collateral position. In this paper the relationship between land value and cash rent; where land value is a function of historical cash rent and cash rent is a function of net returns to the land will be tested for its’ existence in Kansas. Data were collected for the nine crop reporting districts in Kansas from 1973 through 2012.

The rural land market in Australia is a very complex property market. This complexity is not limited to the volatility of the returns in the rural land market, but also those factors that influence the change inland prices within specific rural property markets. Rural land returns – over the period 1975-1996, there has been higher than the returns achieved from residential and commercial real estate in respective rural areas: traditional farming areas have not provided the same level of returns as developing and marginal farming areas. Economic and financial factors and rural land prices – there is significant correlation between rural land price trends in adjoining areas with similar land use and level of farming development: as the distance between specific rural area increases the correlation between changes in land price decreases. Modelling rural land values – relationship between change in rural land prices and the change in economic factors is more significant in the developing and marginal cropping areas compared to the traditional cropping areas: there is a more significant association between rural land prices and rural economic factors when the economic factors are lagged, rather than contemporaneous. Rural property and valuation implications – rural land sales in one location are generally not an accurate measure of changing prices in another location: factors other than rural economic factors have a greater impact on rural land prices in areas which are closer settled or where alternate non agricultural land uses are available
Master of Commerce (Hons.)

This research studied Quebec producers’ environmental attitudes and perceptions on environmentally friendly practices on farm, such as an environmental management system (EMS), using a survey. The contingency valuation method (CVM) was applied to elicit producers’ mean willingness to accept compensation (WTA) of adopting an EMS on farm, in terms of the percentage of direct costs of implementation. Factors affecting the mean WTA were studied to examine their influences. The results show that Quebec producers adopt environmental practices extensively and face many challenges in agro-environmental management. The results also show that producers have mixed perceptions in the benefits and difficulties of environmentally friendly practices and a negative attitude towards environmental regulations. The mean WTA of Quebec producers is estimated at 79.73%. French speaking and English speaking farmers have the mean WTA of 79.91% and 71.75%, respectively. The regression analysis identifies that producers’ knowledge level on EMS, their attitudes towards the benefits and difficulties, internet access and the use of a computer in farm management are significant variables with respect to the mean WTA.
Cette recherche a pour but l’étude de la perception et l’attitude des producteurs agricoles du Québec sur les pratiques culturales respectueuses de l’environnement tel que le système de la gestion environnementale (SGE) à partir d’un sondage. La méthode l’evaluation contingente est utilisée afin de mesurer la volonté d’accepté la compensation (VAC) d’adopter le systeme de gestion environnementale au sein de l’entreprise en terme de pourcentage de coûts directs d’adoption comme compensation. Dans cette recherche, les facteurs influençant la moyenne de la VAC seront étudiés. Les résultats de l’analyse montrent que bon nombre de producteurs québécois adoptent déjà les pratiques respectueuses de l’environnement et font face à de nombreux défis en gestion agro-environnementale. Ces résultats montrent également que les producteurs confondent leur perception concernant les avantages et les difficultés des pratiques culturales respectueuses de l’environnement et une attitude peu négative envers les lois environnementales. La moyenne de la VAC des agriculteurs québécois est estimé à 79,73%. Les agriculteurs francophones démontre une VAC de 79,91% alors que celui des agriculteurs anglophones est de 71,75%, respectivement. D’après cette étude, le niveau de connaissance des agriculteurs sur le SGE, leurs attitudes envers les avantages et difficultés, l’accès à l’internet et l’usage d’un ordinateur dans la gestion de l’entreprise sont des facteurs significatifs qui influencent la moyenne de la VAC. fr

The industry standard among renewable energy companies is to value projects using the traditional discounted cash flow method. Unfortunately, discounted cash flows do not incorporate the value of flexibility. This makes the technique unsuitable for valuing investment opportunities related to wind farm development. Such investments are often highly uncertain, making flexibility valuable.In this thesis we demonstrate the difference between some selected valuation methods, and discuss their suitability for valuing an investment opportunity in a wind power project. The focus is on real options analysis, and our hypothesis is that the use of real options valuation methods will improve the quality of the information available for decision makers, ultimately improving the quality of investment decisions in wind power. The specific wind power project that we value is owned by TrønderEnergi AS, a renewable energy company based in Sør-Trønderlag county in Norway. The project is called Stokkfjellet Wind Farm, and the site is located in Selbu, a municipality in Sør-Trøndelag. TrønderEnergi has applied for a concession to build, and is expecting a decision by the Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE) by the end of the summer of 2014.To investigate this investment opportunity, we first consider the practical conditions affecting the investment decision. We move on to briefly present some theory of discounted cash flow analysis and the contingent net present value (NPV) approach. Then, a thorough introduction to real options theory and our assumptions is given, before we explain in detail the application of the binomial lattice and Monte Carlo valuation methods, which take a real options perspective. We next perform the actual valuations, and analyse the results from these as well as the methods used. The conclusions to be drawn are at last discussed.For the development of the Stokkfjellet project, we assume there is uncertainty about events and markets. With events, we mean for example the outcome of the licence application processing by NVE. By market uncertainty we refer to the future development of the prices of power and tradable green certificates. Both prices influence the income from a wind farm directly.For the real options valuations, we have modelled the power price as a mean-reverting process, and the price of tradable green certificates as a geometric Brownian motion. Modelling the electricity price as a mean-reverting process is an advantage as compared to modelling it as a geometric Brownian motion, since electricity prices show a clear tendency to revert back to a long-term level, rather than wander far away from its mean like a random walk. The parameters of the stochastic processes have been estimated from historical electricity price data from January 1 2001 to December 31 2013 for the NO3 Elspot Market available at Nord Pool Spot, and historical prices of tradable green certificates from February 19 2003 to March 5 2014 as listed by NVE. The code developed for the real options valuations has been written in Visual Basic for Applications (VBA) for Excel, and is included in Appendices A-D in this thesis.Throughout the report, we carefully present all the theory needed in order to perform the calculations for the valuations. For the most intricate mathematical discussions, is assumed that the reader is familiar with calculus, some basic statistics and stochastic processes. We have included a brief introduction to the concept of stochastic calculus in Appendix F.Other than discuss each method theoretically, we also compare the methods for practical applications. We find that the most severe problem with discounted cash flows is that the method cannot handle the value of flexibility incorporated in wind projects, which could cause us to grossly undervalue a project when we use this method. The contingent NPV method succeeds in handling the uncertainty related to events, but is not by itself a sufficient tool for solving real options because of problems related to calculating the appropriate discount rate in every stage of the project. The binomial lattice approach avoids this problem by using so-called risk-neutral probabilities, which is a more accurate fashion than choosing a discount rate. The binomial lattice permits us to value the project as a compound option, which is beneficial considering that investments in the Stokkfjellet project are done in stages. This method handles both event and market uncertainty. The Monte Carlo valuation is a simple and flexible method that also exploits risk-neutral pricing. However, it is not straightforward to use Monte Carlo simulations to value compound options. This is a drawback with this method and we have to model the investment opportunity as a single European call option when using this method. In addition, this method does not cope well with event uncertainty. There will always be benefits and drawbacks with every method, thus it is in general better to refer to more than one valuation method when making important investment decisions.The real option we decide to value is the option to invest. We model the real option as a European compound call option and a single European call option for the binomial lattice and Monte Carlo methods, respectively. The investment opportunity is valued at 29 MNOK with the binomial lattice approach, and 47 MNOK with the Monte Carlo method. The difference in the values assigned can be explained by the different option types used to model the project, among other factors. The value of the project has increased from a negative value of -21 MNOK for the contingent NPV. Thus, we demonstrate that valuing the investment opportunity while accounting for flexibility assigns the project a positive value whereas a contingent net present value approach assigns the investment opportunity a negative value. This is critical information that should be considered before making a decision about investing. We therefore recommend that a real options approach to valuing wind projects is adopted by TrønderEnergi.In addition to our conclusions and the recommendations that we suggest in this thesis, we have created a program that is meant to be used by TrønderEnergi for valuing Stokkfjellet Wind Farm as well as other projects that are subject to similar risks and flexibility. The program is easy to use, flexible and effective, and constitutes an important part of the work done in relation to this thesis. This program is to be handed over to TrønderEnergi at the time when this thesis is submitted.

The choice between purchasing land or entering into a long-term lease is analyzed using a deterministic cash analysis both from the tenant's and landlord's perspective. It is less financially stressful to start farming through a lease agreement than by purchasing the assets. The lease period of landlord indifference between these choices is determined for each combination of input variables.
Land value and income forecasting models are developed and presented. These models are based on two similar but conceptually different statistical tests. Each test results in different forecasting models which has implications for the use of such models in the future.
Consumption-based asset pricing models are tested using agricultural rental income. These models, although appealing both intuitively and theoretically are found wanting in terms of their formulation as the model results are highly sensitive to the data employed. This concern increases with the level of data aggregation.

Thesis (MScAgric) -- Stellenbosch University, 2011.
ENGLISH ABSTRACT: In South Africa more than 80 percent of the total land area is used for agriculture and subsistence livelihoods. A land transaction is generally not a recurring action for most buyers and sellers, their experience and knowledge are limited, for this reason the services of property agents and valuers are sometimes used, just to get more information available. The condition of insufficient information and the inability to observe differences in land productivity gives rise to the undervaluation of good land and overvaluation of poor land. The value of a property plays an important role in the acquisition of a bond, in this context farm valuations are essential and therefore commercial banks make more use of specialist businesses that have professional valuers available. The advent of the Internet made access to comprehensive information sources easier for property agents and valuers whose critical time and resources can now be effectively managed through Geographic Information System (GIS) integrated workflow processes. This study aims to develop the blueprint for a farm valuation support system (FVSS) that assists valuers in their application of the comparable sales method by enabling them to do the following: (1) Rapid identification of the location of the subject property and transaction properties on an electronic map. (2) Comparison of the subject property with the transaction properties in terms of value contributing attributes that can be expressed in a spatial format, mainly a) location and b) land resource quality factors not considered in existing valuation systems that primarily focus on residential property. Interpretation of soil characteristics to determine the suitability of a soil for annual or perennial crops requires specialized knowledge of soil scientists, knowledge not normally found among property valuers or estate agents. For this reason an algorithm, that generates an index value, was developed to allow easy comparison of the land of a subject property and that of transaction properties. Whether this index value reflects the soil suitability of different areas sufficiently accurate was confirmed by soil suitability data of the Breede and Berg River areas, which were obtained by soil scientists by means of a reconnaissance soil survey. This index value distinguishes the proposed FVSS from other existing property valuation systems and can therefore be used by valuers as a first approximation of a property’s soil suitability, before doing further field work. A nationwide survey was done among valuers and estate agents that provided information for the design of the proposed FVSS and proved that the need for such a system does exist and that it will be used by valuers.
AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Meer as 80 persent van die totale grondoppervlakte in Suid-Afrika word gebruik vir landbou en bestaansboerdery. 'n Grondtransaksie is oor die algemeen nie 'n herhalende aksie vir die meeste kopers en verkopers nie, hul ervaring en kennis is beperk, om hierdie rede word die dienste van eiendomsagente en waardeerders soms gebruik om meer inligting beskikbaar te kry. Die toestand van onvoldoende inligting en die onvermoë om verskille in grondproduktiwiteit te identifiseer gee aanleiding tot die onderwaardering van goeie grond en oorwaardering van swak grond. Die waarde van 'n eiendom speel 'n belangrike rol in die verkryging van 'n verband. In hierdie konteks is plaaswaardasies noodsaaklik en daarom maak kommersiële banke meer gebruik van gespesialiseerde maatskappye wat oor professionele waardeerders beskik. Die koms van die Internet het toegang tot omvattende inligtingsbronne makliker gemaak vir eiendomsagente en waardeerders wie se kritiese tyd en hulpbronne nou effektief bestuur kan word deur middel van Geografiese Inligtingstelsel (GIS) geïntegreerde werksprosesse. Hierdie studie poog om die bloudruk vir 'n plaaswaardasie ondersteuningstelsel te ontwikkel wat waardeerders sal help in hul toepassing van die vergelykbare verkope metode deur hul in staat te stel om die volgende te doen: (1) Vinnige identifisering van die ligging van die betrokke onderwerp eiendom en transaksie eiendomme op 'n elektroniese kaart. (2) Vergelyking van die onderwerp eiendom met transaksie eiendomme in terme van waardedraende eienskappe wat in 'n ruimtelike formaat uitgedruk word, hoofsaaklik a) ligging en b) bodem gehaltefaktore wat nie oorweeg word in bestaande residensieel georiënteerde waardasiestelsels nie. Interpretasie van grondeienskappe om die geskiktheid van grond vir eenjarige of meerjarige gewasse te bepaal vereis gespesialiseerde kennis van grondkundiges, kennis wat nie normaalweg gevind word onder eiendomswaardeerders of eiendomsagente nie. Om hierdie rede is 'n algoritme ontwikkel sodat die grond van ‘n onderwerp eiendom d.m.v. ‘n indekswaarde met transaksie eiendomme vergelyk kan word. Die indekswaarde is akkuraat genoeg bevestig toe dit vergelyk is met grond geskiktheidsdata wat deur grondkundiges in die Breede- en Bergrivier gebiede ingesamel is. Hierdie indekswaarde onderskei die voorgestelde plaaswaardasie ondersteuningstelsel van ander bestaande eiendom waardasiestelsels en kan dus deur waardeerders gebruik word as 'n eerste bepaling van 'n eiendom se grond geskiktheid, voordat verdere veldwerk gedoen word. 'n Landwye opname is gedoen onder waardeerders en eiendomsagente wat inligting voorsien het vir die ontwerp van die voorgestelde plaaswaardasie ondersteuningstelsel, asook bewys gelewer het dat daar ‘n behoefte aan so 'n stelsel bestaan en dat dit deur waardeerders gebruik sal word.

The objective of this study was to determine what impact, if any, interest rate subsidies have on the price of farmland in Canada. The basic capitalization model is used as a starting point for the development of several models. These econometric models are then estimated, using data from four provinces: Quebec, New Brunswick, Manitoba and Saskatchewan. The time period studied is 1972 to 1991. The findings indicate that interest subsidies do in fact affect land values, however the effect is relatively small. There are large differences between provinces in terms of subsidy amount and consequently in terms of the effect of the subsidy programs on the value of land in each province.

Mestrado em Finanças
Um caso de estudo do Vila Monte Farm House, um hotel de luxo localizado no Algarve, é apresentado e analisado de forma detalhada. Nesta tese, o Discovery Portugal Real Estate Fund, um fundo imobiliário da private equity portuguesa Explorer Investments, tem de decidir se deve investir e reestruturar o Hotel Vila Monte. Adicionalmente, em caso afirmativo, também deve estimar qual o valor desse investimento. O problema é apresentado de forma clara e sintética, sendo desenvolvida e proposta uma possível solução. Começa por se analisar a indústria hoteleira, os seus fatores-chave e tendências, o estado geral da económica portuguesa e os intervenientes deste caso específico. Ademais, foi aplicado um método de Cash Flows Descontados ("DCF"). De forma a verificar este resultado e tomar uma decisão de investimento totalmente informada foram calculadas múltiplas métricas, assumindo diferentes valores de investimento inicial para cada caso: Valor Atualizado Líquido ("VAL"), Taxa Interna de Rentabilidade ("TIR") e Período de Reembolso Descontado. Finalmente, completou-se a análise aplicando múltiplos de mercado (rácios Preço-Resultado Líquido e Preço-Valor Contabilístico do Capital Próprio) e um resultado semelhante foi encontrado. Em suma, concluímos que, de acordo com os nossos pressupostos, o Discovery Portugal Real Estate Fund deve investir na aquisição e reestruturação do Hotel Vila Monte, uma vez que tal cria valor para os acionistas deste fundo.
A case study of Vila Monte Farm House, a luxury hotel based in Algarve, is presented and thoroughly analysed. In this thesis, Discovery Portugal Real Estate Fund, a real estate fund from the Portuguese private equity firm Explorer Investments, is considering whether it should invest in the acquisition and subsequent restructuring of Vila Monte Hotel and, if so, by how much it is willing to purchase. We present the problem in a clear and synthetized way and follow on by proposing a possible solution. We begin by focusing on the hospitality industry, its key drivers and trends, the overall state of the Portuguese economy and the intervenient of this specific case. Furthermore, we employ a Discounted Cash Flows ("DCF") technique. In order to cross-check this result and to make a fully informed investment decision we compute multiple metrics, assuming different initial investment values in each case: Net Present Value ("NPV"), Internal Rate of Return ("IRR") and Discounted Payback Period. Finally, we complete our analysis by applying market multiples (Price-Earnings and Price-to-Book ratios) and reach a similar result. We conclude that, according to our assumptions, Discovery Portugal Real Estate Fund should invest in the acquisition and restructuring of Vila Monte Hotel, since it creates value to the fund's shareholders.
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion

Thesis (PhD(Agric) (Agriculture))--University of Stellenbosch, 2009.
Traditionally, agricultural land was regarded mainly as a production factor. Accordingly, in their application of the market sales comparison approach to agricultural land, valuers relied on a set of attributes related to agricultural production as the primary determinants of an agricultural property’s highest and best use (HBU) and market value. These characteristics were measurable and related to the property’s income-generating capacity. The emergence of a multi-functional rural land market with alternative uses of agricultural land, such as for lifestyle purposes, has transformed this concept. Lifestyle inspired buyers often focus on a wider range of attributes not necessarily related to income, but associated more with satisfaction derived from the property. This creates a measurement problem for agricultural land valuers, as the characteristics valued by lifestyle buyers are more intangible and subjective, which leave valuers without a base from which to value such properties. The presence of lifestyle inspired buyers makes agricultural land valuations more demanding as it implies different interpretations of the same farm and complicates the choice of a single HBU. The continued use of familiar conventional farming attributes by valuers when valuing farms where lifestyle motivations are present, and the omission of less measurable characteristics, implies that the market sales comparison method cannot be executed accurately. The objectives of the study were twofold: to reveal the dominance of value attributes applicable to farming as HBU when valuing farms bought primarily for lifestyle purposes and to identify the characteristics of land important to lifestyle inspired farm buyers.

Public concern for the intergenerational transfer of natural resources has generated an interest in sustainable development and sustainable agriculture. Policy makers have a new mandate to insure the promotion of sustainable agriculture. At the same time these policy makers must also reduce public expenditures in agriculture. These two conflicting mandates can only be accomplished when private market values for various soil conservation investments are known. Once this market information is known, policy makers can formulate appropriate policies to achieve both goals.
The focus of this research is to measure the significant factors affecting land values in the study area. The sample farm sales data used were drawn from four of Quebec's twelve agricultural regions. Two of these regions are among Quebec's most productive. These data were used in conjunction with a Hedonic Pricing Model for the analysis.
This research seeks to quantify the implied price paid for land characteristics, soil conservation and capital improvement investments. The research should determine whether the studied land market provides adequate price incentives for private market implementation of soil conservation and capital improvement investments. These investments are necessary to achieve a sustainable agriculture scheme.

L’objectif principal de l'étude réalisée est d'évaluer l'importance économique des interactions entre les abeilles sauvages et domestiques, appelées « complémentarité », dans les exploitations agricoles. Une emphase particulière a été mise en examinant la manière dont l'importance économique de la complémentarité devrait affecter le règlement de politique publique afin de préserver la fourniture de services de pollinisation. Le premier chapitre fournit le cadre théorique sur lequel repose cette évaluation économique. Le chapitre 2 fournit un modèle éco-économique montrant les décisions des agriculteurs entre deux intrants, les services de pollinisation et les pesticides. Deux sources de pollinisation avec des caractéristiques différentes sont considérées; les abeilles domestiques, qui peuvent être remplacées à un certain coût, et les abeilles sauvages, dont la population est supposée d’être soutenue au paysage. En plus, nous prenons pour acquis que les services entre les deux abeilles ont une relation complémentaire. Le troisième chapitre intègre les résultats du chapitre 2 dans une modélisation éco-économique territoriale plus sophistiquée afin d'explorer les impacts potentiels des changements de politique sur la protection des services de pollinisation et sur les revenus des agriculteurs pour différents taux de coopération entre eux. Enfin, le chapitre 4 évalue l’efficacité des mesures prises par la politique française en matière de protection des services de pollinisation et examine en quoi les résultats de nos analyses peuvent contribuer à l’amélioration de l’efficacité de ces mesures. Le résultat majeur de nos recherches est double. Premièrement, la connaissance de la complémentarité des abeilles peut offrir aux agriculteurs une stratégie alternative de gestion optimale. Deuxièmement, l’inclusion de ces connaissances dans les mesures politiques mises en œuvre peut faciliter le processus d’adoption par les agriculteurs en faveur de pratiques à faibles intrants et conséquemment accroître leur efficacité sur la durabilité des services de pollinisation pour les systèmes agricoles et alimentaires
The principal objective of the realized study is to evaluate the economic importance of the behavioral interactions which emerge from managed and wild bees, called bees’ complementarity in arable crop farms. A particular emphasis was placed on examining how the economic importance of bees’ complementarity should affect the public policy regulation in order to safeguard the provision of pollination services. The first Chapter of this Ph.D. thesis provides the theoretical framework on which this economic valuation is based. Chapter 2, provides an ecological-economic model displaying farmer’s decisions between two agricultural inputs, pollination services and pesticides, and two sources of pollination with different characteristics; managed bees, which can be replaced at a cost, and wild bees, which rely on a population being sustained within the farmland. Moreover, we take as a given that the services of wild and managed bees are in a complementary relationship. The third Chapter of this thesis, integrates the findings of Chapter 2 in a Mathematical-Programming territorial ecological-economic modeling in order to explore the potential impacts of policy changes on the provision of pollination services and on farmers’ incomes for different rates of farmers’ cooperation. Finally, Chapter 4, evaluates the effectiveness of French policy measures towards the provision of pollination services and it discusses how the results of our analyses may contribute towards the amelioration of the effectiveness of these measures. The major result of our research is twofold. Firstly, the knowledge of bees’ complementarity may offer to farmers an alternative optimum management strategy. Secondly, the inclusion of this knowledge in the implemented policy measures may facilitate farmers’ adoption process towards low-input practices and, consequently, increase their effectiveness towards the sustainability of pollination services for the agricultural and food systems

The challenge of resolving land use allocation and policy questions depends to a large degree on the conversion of data into information, and the effective integration of information into the decision process. Land evaluation is one of the fundamental means of generating information for land planning. Information products have however, been inconsistently and ineffectively used in the decision process. This thesis develops a decision centered approach to land evaluation as a response to this concern. Included in this development is a description of important theoretical concepts, as well as a practical demonstration of the use of decision support systems as a design approach. Initially, a conceptual model is introduced illustrating the technical and use components of information generation, as well as the adaptive design cycle. Various terms and techniques involved in the technical aspects of land evaluation are reviewed. Decision making concepts including decision structure, environment, analysis, and criteria are outlined. Three existing methods of land evaluation are then compared from a use or decision making perspective. Having completed a review of current approaches, Decision Support Systems are introduced as a logical progression towards a decision centered approach. Decision Support System design is demonstrated using a portion of the Central Fraser Valley Regional District as a case study area combined with an interactive microcomputer land planning tool (LANDPLAN). The demonstration emphasizes the advantages of the flexible, interactive capabilities of Decision Support Systems in aiding the decision process. Iterative design is also promoted with several needs identified if a more complete system is to be developed. In particular, data on strategic long term supply and demand factors is required, as well as continuous rating functions for assessing land performance.
Science, Faculty of
Resources, Environment and Sustainability (IRES), Institute for
Graduate

Le gouvernement français s'est engagé sur un ambitieux objectif de développer l'éolien offshore pour atteindre une capacité de 6 GW d'ici 2020. La construction d'éoliennes terrestres, tout comme les éoliennes offshore, est très contestée en raison de leur impact visuel sur le paysage. Dans la région française du Languedoc Roussillon, les acteurs concernés (industrie touristique, commerces, pêcheurs, élus locaux), craignent que la construction de parc éoliens offshore aie des effets néfastes sur le tourisme, en donnant à la région une image industrialisée et « bétonnée ». Jusqu'à présent, en mer du Nord, il n'a jamais été mis en évidence que la construction de parcs éoliens offshore ait réellement affecté l'attractivité touristique des côtes environnantes. On peut se demander si ce constat peut être extrapolé à la cote méditerranéenne. Depuis une dizaine d'années, lorsqu'ont débuté les débats sur la possibilité d'exploiter les vents méditerranéens, beaucoup de préjugés sont apparus sur l'impact potentiel négatif que cela pourrait avoir sur le tourisme. La réticence a d'autant plus augmenté lorsque le Languedoc Roussillon a été inclus dans le zonage de l'appel d'offre concernant la construction de 2 GW de parcs éoliens.Il était donc pertinent de mener une enquête auprès des touristes du littoral pour évaluer comment l'installation de parcs éoliens, installés à des distances réalistes des côtés, pourrait affecter le tourisme balnéaire. Par ailleurs, il était également intéressant de proposer des stratégies que les stations balnéaires pourraient adopter pour augmenter le nombre de touristes et leurs profits, avec ou sans parc éolien. Pour répondre à ces questions, une enquête d'évaluation mobilisant la méthode des « choice experiment », a été réalisée durant l'été 2010, auprès de plus de 350 touristes, sur les plages languedociennes.Les résultats de cette enquête, présentés au chapitre 3, montrent que les coûts liés à la nuisance visuelle s'annulent lorsque le parc éolien est installé à des distances comprises entre 8 et 12 km de la côte. L'enquête a également mis en évidence une forte demande pour la mise en place de démarches éco responsable (favorisant les produits locaux, le vélo, les transports publics et les économies d'eau et d'énergie) par les stations balnéaires. Ainsi, nos résultats montrent que la nuisance vécue par l'installation d'un parc à 8 km de la cote serait compensée par la mise en place simultanée d'une « démarche verte ». Par ailleurs, la construction de récifs artificiels associé au parc éolien, qui permettrait l'accès à des loisirs récréatifs (plongée sous marine par ex.) générerait, d'après nos résultats, une augmentation des dépenses des touristes, si ce parc était installé à une distance d'au moins 5 km de la côte.De nos résultats émergent deux principaux constats :- L'implantation d'une éolienne à 12 km de la côte, sans aucune évolution de la station par ailleurs, n'aurait pas d'incidence négative sur le tourisme.- Si la station balnéaire met simultanément en place des actions environnementales et des activités récréatives, le parc éolien peut alors être conçu à partir d'une distance de 5 km de la côte.L'écart entre le Consentement à Payer pour un bien et le Consentement à Recevoir une compensation pour renoncer à ce même bien est un phénomène très largement mis en évidence en économie de l'environnement. Dans une seconde partie de la thèse, nous prenons en compte dans nos estimations économétriques cet écart entre les pertes et des gains dans la fonction d'utilité. En tenant compte de cette asymétrie, nous estimons une réduction de moitié de la nuisance vécue par rapport aux éoliennes si le parc éolien est déjà installé. D'un autre côté, les bénéfices liés aux activités récréatives et à une démarche éco responsable sont perçu comme plus élevés si ces activités étaient déjà mises en place
The French government has committed itself to an ambitious target of boosting the offshore wind power capacity to reach 6 GW by 2020. Wind turbines onshore as well as offshore are highly contested on visual grounds. Affected stakeholders, ranging from business and property owners, fishermen and elected municipal planners, fear significant negative economic impacts on their ‘business' or their ‘property'. In the French Mediterranean region of the Languedoc Roussillon, the expectation is that the tourist industry will be chagrined in the presence of an offshore wind farm – giving a windy and cemented image of the region. Since talks began about 10 years ago, on the potential for ‘harvesting' the winds of the Mediterranean Sea, many postulates have been made with regard to the impact on coastal tourism. In particular, resistance mounted when plans to include the Languedoc Roussillon in the 2011 tender for the construction of 2 GW wind power capacity were materialising. In this light, it was considered of pertinence to investigate how offshore wind farms, installed at realistic distances from the coast (5, 8 or 12 km), would affect coastal tourism. Additionally, it was considered of interest to help define strategies that coastal community resort may adopt to boost visiting numbers or profit margins with or without wind farms. To answer these questions a full-scale choice experiment valuation survey with over 350 tourists was undertaken in the summer of 2010 on Languedoc beaches.Our survey results show (in chapter 3) that average visual disamenity costs tends to zero, when an offshore wind farm is installed somewhere between 8 and 12 km from the shore. We also find that there is considerable demand for “sustainable” coastal community resorts that favours local produce, bicycling, public transport, energy and water saving devices. Thus, our estimates show that a wind farm installed 8 km from the shore could be ‘compensated for' through the simultaneous ‘greening' of the coastal community resort. If in addition a wind farm is associated with artificial reefs and recreational user access, our results point to an actual rise in tourist related revenues when the wind farm is located min. 5 km from the coast. The policy recommendation is thus two fold: Everything else equals, a wind farm located 12 km offshore will have no negative incidence on tourism. With simultaneous application of a coherent environmental policy and wind farm associated recreational activities, wind farm siting can be conceived from 5 km and outwards.In a latter stage (chapter 5) we explicit account for the well-established fact that humans' over-estimate losses compared with equal-sized gains, in our econometric estimations. By incorporating so-called gain-loss asymmetry in the utility function, we observe that the WTP to remove wind farms had they already been installed is half the compensation required to accept their presence during a vacation. The disamenity costs associated with wind farm installation are thus of a significantly smaller magnitude had the wind farms already been installed. On the other hand, the welfare benefits associated with eco-efficiency and wind farm associated recreational activities are larger had they already been invigorated. The verdict is that asymmetry should be accounted for, or at least recognised in stated preference valuation studies that simultaneously use utility increasing and utility decreasing attributes

Raw product value of vegetables for processing in the Northwest used to be established by a competitive market involving proprietary processors and growers. Due to the relocation of proprietary processors to the Midwest, this competitive market has eroded forcing cooperative processors to seek other means to set raw product values. In the absence of a competitive market for raw product, cooperatives must rely on an average of last year's prices paid by processors in a given region to value raw product. This method of lagged averages may be resulting in misallocated contracted acreage to grower-members of cooperatives, and inappropriate production levels of the processed good given market conditions. Therefore, the principal objective of this research is to develop and evaluate alternative methods of forecasting raw product value. Since the market for processed vegetables at the retail level is competitive, one alternative method employed was to use a forecast of supply and determinants of demand affecting retail price to forecast raw product value. These explanatory variables were regressed against raw product values of various crops obtained from a northwest processing and marketing cooperative. The raw product values were expressed as net returns/acre to the crops under investigation. The estimated equations, which had adjusted R²'s ranging from .267 to .851, were used to forecast raw product value. A second forecasting method investigated in this study was an exponential smoothing model. Raw product value forecasts were generated over two different time horizons, identified by the cooperatives' accounting procedures. The two alternative forecasting methods were compared to each other, and to the method currently in use by the cooperative, with the aim of determining the most accurate forecasting technique. Results showed that both the econometric and smoothing approaches fit the data better over the estimation period than did a naive lagged price estimate resembling the present method in use by the cooperative. The econometric method also fit the data better than did the smoothing approach. The econometric model provided poor forecasts for the longer forecast horizon, but proved to be effective in the shorter. The smoothing technique forecasted more effectively in the longer forecast horizon as compared with the shorter. These results suggest the importance of the forecast horizon in determining the more appropriate forecasting technique. Both forecasting techniques proposed in this study produced forecasts which were more accurate than the cooperative's present method at least half of the time. This suggests that viable alternatives to the present method of establishing raw product value exist for agricultural cooperatives.
Graduation date: 1986

In last few years, terms like customer centric organization; customer focused strategies; customer metrics and customer value assessment have became buzzwords in the organizations. Independently from which angle managers are grasping these concepts, a common denominator seems to accede that customers are probably the most valuable assets in a company. However, most of costumer value assessments are confined to sales revenues analysis. In this document, several customer value models are assessed, in order to evaluate which can be used as a metric and as a managerial tool, able be applied to market particularities of a foodservice food products supplier. The author selected CLV model as the base model to assess customer values, adapting it to the presented case study. In addition to this model, it was developed a complementary scoring model to balance qualitatively the adapted CLV outputs. The two models working together are the proposed solution to assess the case study customers’ value.
Nos últimos anos, expressões como: organizações orientadas para o cliente; estratégias centradas no cliente; métricas de rentabilidade e de valorização de clientes têm sido proferidas como alguma frequência no seio das organizações. Apesar de nem sempre os gestores perceberem estes conceitos na sua plenitude, a grande maioria consegue conceber que os clientes são provavelmente o ativo de maior valor das suas organizações. Contudo, e apesar dessa consciência de mais-valia, na grande maioria dos casos, os procedimentos de valorização e de medição do valor dos clientes ainda se resumem a análises lineares da margem de vendas. Neste documento, procura-se apresentar vários modelos de avaliação de clientes, aferindo qual ou quais melhor solucionarão o problema apresentado. Ou seja, avaliar o portfólio de clientes de uma empresa fornecedora de “commodities” alimentares a operar no sector de “foodservice” no sul da Europa. O autor optou pelo modelo CLV – “Customer Lifetime Value” como modelo base, adaptando-o à especificidade do problema apresentado. Foi ainda desenvolvido um modelo complementar, que através de procedimentos de ponderação acrescenta valorização qualitativa aos resultados do primeiro. A aplicação em modo de complementaridade dos dois modelos são a solução proposta para o problema do caso apresentado.

As a result of three prime compounding factors, sea water is intruding into the Mekong River Delta (MRD). Declining flows, as a result of increasing upstream water use, are a primary cause of sea water intrusion. Climate change-induced sea level rise is a secondary cause. Finally, increased water use due to an expansion in the number of farmers planting three, rather than two, rice crops per year have generally extended the total area of salinity intrusion in the MRD. Adverse impacts of this increased salinity on rice and other forms of agricultural production are now occurring, and are expected to get worse; with severe consequences for local farmers and rural incomes. To address the issue of MRD salinity intrusion various mitigation and adaptation strategies have been proposed. Chief among these strategies is the construction of earthen and concrete sea-dikes along the MRD coast to protect farmland from flooding, and to prevent further salinity intrusion. It has been estimated that, based on the total MRD coastal region length involved, it would require an investment of between US$1.7 and US$4.1 billion to construct concrete sea-dike walls to a height of between two and four meters, respectively. Although the benefit of concrete sea-dikes is significantly higher than their cost, Vietnam like other developing countries is limited in its capacity to fund projects of this nature. Hence, there is a degree of uncertainty for policy-makers as to how best to proceed. It is possible that Vietnam could access international funding to support its strategic construction plans, especially as the need for much of the damage that would be prevented has been caused by others. But if this were achieved, there would be repayment issues for the loans, as well as the ongoing costs of sea-dike maintenance and operation. In this context, it is possible that affected farmers as beneficiaries of a MRD sea-dike construction program, might provide part or all of the necessary funds. This thesis therefore seeks to explore MRD farmer perceptions of salinity intrusion impacts, and their willingness to contribute to the cost of building and maintaining the sea-dikes necessary to protect their livelihoods. The project collected primary data from a sample of 441 farm households, stratified by salinity intrusion impact level. The results provide an in-depth economic analysis aimed at contributing to the research literature, and practical policy advice for consideration by the Vietnamese, other developing country governments, and the broader international community. Two broad research questions were examined in this study: (1) whether or not community-based governance arrangements designed to mitigate salinity intrusion impacts may succeed in developing countries, and in terms of methodology, (2) can inferred valuation (IV) approaches to the estimation of willingness to pay be used to reduce payment-bias impacts commonly associated with conventional Contingent Valuation Methodology estimates of value. The results of the farm households’ perception analysis in Chapter 2 reveal that farm households are aware of the salinity intrusion risk, and have already implemented some adaptation strategies. The analysis offers an understanding of how MRD farm households respond to salinity risk, and farmer perceptions of the effectiveness of any private and public responses. Facing the dilemma of changing traditional paddy-rice farming to aquaculture, livestock and/or other off-farm activities, MRD farm households are seeking more detailed salinity impact risk information from local and central authorities. Notably, additional to impacts on physical health, this analysis found evidence of adverse impacts of salinity intrusion on farmers’ mental health. Chapter 2 also finds that farmers have a strong preference for the construction of infrastructure in order to mitigate salinity intrusion impacts, which allow them to maintain rice farming. These results indicate farm households’ choices are consistent with other climate change perception studies in the literature. Building upon the data collected, this study goes on to recommend some specific local policy proposals to mitigate salinity intrusion risk mitigation, and improve planning arrangements. In summary, local authorities and policymakers are advised to recognize the benefits of making greater investments in awareness programs as they consider how best to construct sea-dikes and the associated hard infrastructure necessary to reduce the adverse effects of salinity intrusion. When making these recommendations, pragmatically it is assumed that the international community and upstream water users in the Mekong River will never be made to pay for the full cost of building the concrete sea-dikes needed to maintain rice production in the MRD; even though they have caused most, if not all, of the need for it. Chapter 3 in this thesis employs a referendum Contingent Valuation Methodology (CVM) approach to estimate farm household willingness to pay for sea-dike salinity intrusion risk mitigation including ongoing operation and maintenance. Interviewee responses indicate that farm households are willing to contribute sufficient funds to reduce any deficit associated with international loans, as well as ongoing annual maintenance and operational costs. Interestingly, and consistent with other studies, our results show that farmers are willing to make a significant cash contribution – even in areas that are unlikely to be affected by salinity intrusion in the next 15 years. Chapter 4 then explores the use of an inferred valuation (IV) method, which can be employed to potentially provide robust estimates of willingness to pay than a conventional CVM. In WTP estimation research, social desirability bias, hypothetical bias, and large private gains can result in over-estimates of willingness to pay. It is reasoned that before settling on a final program, policy-makers would be well-advised to check the robustness of farmer willingness to pay estimates. I therefore use several mechanisms to address hypothetical bias impacts, and explore whether any overestimation has occurred. It is found that the determinants of WTP are broadly consistent across different valuation approaches. However, the IV estimates of willingness to pay were found to be as much as 17 percent lower than the conventional CVM estimations; although it must be noted that these values still account for a very small proportion of annual farm income. Moreover, in real dollar term any disparity may not significantly alter the actual contribution levels by MRD farmers. This may have important implications for the financial viability of salinity mitigation project funding, and any future loan repayment/operational maintenance cost-recovery requirements. Overall, the findings from this thesis confirm that MRD farm households are aware of salinity intrusion threats, and that they are willing to pay for reduced salinity intrusion risks. Significantly, it is found that community financial contributions towards salinity intrusion mitigation projects could be used to overcome any public funding deficit. In passing, I observe that this result could be generally applicable to other developing countries. Chapter 4 also finds that, to mitigate any bias arising from the estimation of stated values for non-market goods, the use of IV methods offers a valuable alternative estimation approach and, arguably, more reliable approach than conventional CVM. Further, involving cheap talk script and provision point mechanism (PPM) payment vehicles as ex-ante instruments also offer effective means to mitigate bias. Future researchers may like to extend from this study in the following ways. Firstly, the survey could be expanded to include all adult members of a household, rather than focusing only on the farm households’ head. More in-depth householder perception analysis would then be possible, as well as the capacity to focus on gender issues. Secondly, it might be useful to expand the survey to other areas of Vietnam where salinity intrusion impacts are also being experienced. Finally, if the policy recommendations for contributions to a mitigation fund are accepted, then it would be important to determine the extent of the gap between stated intentions and the actual contribution households are willing to pay as the program is implemented.
Thesis (Ph.D.) -- University of Adelaide, The Centre for Global Food and Resources, 2019

The rural land market in Australia is a very complex property market. This complexity is not limited to the volatility of the returns in the rural land market, but also those factors that influence the change inland prices within specific rural property markets. Rural land returns – over the period 1975-1996, there has been higher than the returns achieved from residential and commercial real estate in respective rural areas: traditional farming areas have not provided the same level of returns as developing and marginal farming areas. Economic and financial factors and rural land prices – there is significant correlation between rural land price trends in adjoining areas with similar land use and level of farming development: as the distance between specific rural area increases the correlation between changes in land price decreases. Modelling rural land values – relationship between change in rural land prices and the change in economic factors is more significant in the developing and marginal cropping areas compared to the traditional cropping areas: there is a more significant association between rural land prices and rural economic factors when the economic factors are lagged, rather than contemporaneous. Rural property and valuation implications – rural land sales in one location are generally not an accurate measure of changing prices in another location: factors other than rural economic factors have a greater impact on rural land prices in areas which are closer settled or where alternate non agricultural land uses are available

碩士
國立臺灣大學
商學研究所
85
This article applies analytical Jamshidian closed-form bond option pricing formula (1989),which is extended from Black- Sholes option pricing formula and based on the one factor Vasicek (1977) interest rate model , and the numerical method ,the Hull and White interest rate trinomial tree method (1994),based on the Hull & White extended Vasicek interest rate model to price the cap embedded in the Far East Textile #63 corporate bond. By amortizing the caplets value over the life of the bond, we can sum up t he total value to acquire the cap value, that is the markup(mark down) compensate the bondholders'' potential loss or benefit. At last, we use the factors sensibility analysis to test the influences of the interest parameter variation, including the alpha, sigma, mu, exercise interest rate , time periods. Not only is single parameter tested , but also the sensibility analysis of simultaneous variation of two factors are tested. The conclusion of this study shows that: (1) When valuing caps, the analy tical Jamshidian closed-form formula and the numerical Hull and White trinomial tree method yield similar results. The difference between the two models is within the range to be accepted. (2) the estimation of the interest rate model parameters play very important roles to determine the caps value, how to find out an efficient way to get an accurate value is very difficult. (3).the sensitivity analysis gave us a general concept about the direction and quantities of cap value that varies with each parameter valuation. Of all the parameters, we find out the volatility has the most significant influence on the cap value. Besides, the variation of exercise rate and long term interest rate average level mu also have significant influence. (4).the pricing ability of numerical method is more powerful than the classic model, especially dealing with the bond options which have complex payoffs at the option maturity. With the fast growth and progress of the derivatives market, how to develop more accurate and powerful pricing method is an important topic of the Financial Engineering.

碩士
國立臺灣大學
國際企業學系
85
GRADUATE INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS NATIONAL TAIWAN UNIVERSITY NAME：CHEAU-MEY, HWANG MONTH/YEAR：JUNE, 1997 ADVISER：Dr. HUNG, MAO-WEI The Application of Interest Rate Term Structure Theory on the Valuation of the Interest Rate Cap Embedded in Far East Textile'' s #63 Corporate Bond Traditional option pricing theories and term structure theories have disadvantages while evaluating the price of interest rate options. Thus, new interest rate models rise because of demand. This study applies three different term structure models on the valuation of the cap embedded in Far East Textile''s #63 corporate bond, and sensitivity ana- lyses are followed. These models include Black, Derman, and Toy (1990), Heath, Jarrow, and Morton (1992), and Ritchken and Sankarasubramanian (1992). The valuing results of the three model are quite different that is because of the imperfection of estimation of parameters. About the comparisons of the three models: 1. the BDT model has simple assumption, but is not easy to solve using trial-and-error method; 2. the calculation of the HJM model is extremely time-consuming, thus the model has only a little practical value; 3. the calculation of the RS model is fast, but it may not form a reconnecting interest rate lattice.

碩士
輔仁大學
金融研究所
93
Abstract With the market deregulation, technology progress, and high competition, the telecom enterprise has recently been innovating rapidly and developing prosperously. Moreover, the cases of merges and acquisitions have been prevailed worldwide. The mobile phone market has been developing form growth to mature period since the private enterprise’s participation in 1997. The growth of business has been stuck due to limited market in Taiwan. The beginning merge with KG Telecom and Tung Jung Telecom had integrated the mobile phone market and led to a large-size oligopoly telecom company. The case studies of merges and acquisitions -Taiwan Mobile merges Trans Asian telecom and Far East Tone merges KG telecom are valued based on discounted cash flow (DCF), market value per household, and EV/EBITDA. The simulation results indicate that the target company - Trans Asian Telecom using DCF approach should be NT 35.5 a share in comparison with the actual purchasing price is NT 39.9. From the case 2, the target company - KG Telecom using DCF approach should be NT 17.21 a share in comparison with the actual purchasing price is NT17.05. Keywords: merge, valuation, DCF approach, telecom enterprise

碩士
國立臺灣大學
商學研究所
85
The great development of interest rate derivative securities in the financial market makes its evaluation an important issue. Traditional optionpricing theories and term structure theories have disadvantages while evaluatingthe price of interest rate options. Thus, new interest rate models rise becauseof demands. This study applies three different term structure models on the valuation ofthe cap embedded in Far East Textile''s #62 corporation bond, and sensitivity analyses are followed. These models include Black, Derman, and Toy (1990), Heath, Jarrow, and Morton (1992), and Ritchken and Sankarasubramanian (1992). The study suggests an algorithm to speed up the trial-and-error method to solve simultaneous equations in the BDT model, and some solutions to the problems found in the RS model. The conclusions of this study are presented as follows:I. The valuing result of the BDT normal-distribution model is quite tiny, while the result of other models are all zero. Two reasons can explain this: 1. the cap rate is too high; 2. the historical data show that the volatility of the index rate is small, while the mean reversion speed is big.II. About the comparisons of the three model: 1. the BDT model has simple assumption, but is not easy to solve using trial- and-error method; 2. the calculation of the HJM model is extremely time-consuming, thus the model has almost no practical value; 3. the calculation of the RS model is fast, but it may not form a reconnecting interest rate lattice.