Książki: „Expected price”

1

Pástor, Lubos̆. Liquidity risk and expected stock returns. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, 2001.

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Grinblatt, Mark. What do we really know about the cross-sectional relation between past and expected returns? Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, 2002.

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Nielsen, Lars Tyge. Common knowledge of price and expected cost in an oligopolistic market. Fontainebleau: INSEAD, 1990.

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Marini, Giancarlo. Expected inflation and output variability in contracting and flexible price models. London: University College, 1990.

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Campbell, John Y. Measuring the persistence of expected returns. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1990.

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MacKinlay, Archie Craig. Asset pricing models: Implications for expected returns and portfolio selection. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1999.

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Giovannini, Alberto. Time-series tests of a non-expected-utility model of asset pricing. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1989.

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Harvey, Campbell R. What determines expected international asset returns? Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1994.

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9

Lettau, Martin. Consumption, aggregate wealth and expected stock returns. [New York, N.Y.]: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, 1999.

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Parker, Jonathan A. Consumption risk and expected stock returns. [Princeton, NJ]: Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, 2003.

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Parker, Jonathan A. Consumption risk and expected stock returns. Cambridge, Mass: National Bureau of Economic Research, 2003.

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12

Kandel, Shmuel. Portfolio inefficiency and the cross-section of expected returns. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1994.

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13

Campello, Murillo. Expected returns, yield spreads, and asset pricing tests. Cambridge, Mass: National Bureau of Economic Research, 2005.

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Campello, Murillo. Expected returns, yield spreads, and asset pricing tests. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, 2005.

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15

Browne, F. X. Mortgage market disequilibrium, expected holding costs, uncertainty and real house prices. Dublin: Central Bank of Ireland, 1987.

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16

Lareau, William. Conduct expected for the 21st century. Wyd. 2. Clinton, N.J: New Win Pub., 1997.

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Flood, Robert P. Estimating the expected marginal rate of substitution: Exploiting idiosyncratic risk. Cambridge, Mass: National Bureau of Economic Research, 2004.

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Flood, Robert P. Estimating the expected marginal rate of substitution: Exploiting idiosyncratic risk. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, 2004.

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Shapouri, Shahla. Egyptian meat market: Policy issues in trade, prices, and expected market performance. [Washington, D.C.]: U.S. Dept. of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, International Economics Division, 1985.

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Abel, Andrew B. Exact solutions for expected rates of return under Markov regime switching: Implications for the equity premium puzzle. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1992.

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21

Yu, Kam. Measuring the output and prices of the lottery sector: An application of implicit expected utility theory. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, 2008.

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Baldwin, Douglas. Expected and unexpected childbirth in Prince Edward Island, 1827-1857: The casebook of Dr. John Mackieson. St. John's: Memorial University of Newfoundland, Faculty of Medicine, 1992.

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Veruete, Leticia. Why do economic agents store even if they expect a negative price of storage?. Coventry: University of Warwick. Warwick Business School Research Bureau, 1997.

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Workshop on oil prices: Workshop before the Committee on Energy and Natural Resources, United States Senate, One Hundred Tenth Congress, second session, on why oil and transportation fuel prices and this winter's expected home heating fuel prices will be so high, and what can be done to address these situations, July 17, 2008. Washington: U.S. G.P.O., 2008.

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S, Satchell, red. Forecasting expected returns in the financial markets. Oxford: Elsevier/AP, 2007.

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Young, Tabitha. The Burden of Trust: The Price No One Expected to Pay. Ladero Press LLC, 2018.

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Koops, Egbert. Price Setting and Other Attempts to Control the Economy. Redaktorzy Paul J. du Plessis, Clifford Ando i Kaius Tuori. Oxford University Press, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780198728689.013.45.

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Prices in the Roman economy were generally set by the operation of free market forces. Occasional government interventions in the form of price ceilings occurred in times of crisis, to stabilise volatile or politically important markets, or to signal moral policies. The mechanism of price formation was generally understood, but price shocks were expected to be curbed. In a similar vein, the valuation techniques developed by the Roman jurists were based on “true” prices rather than pure market prices. Even so, party autonomy in price setting was the norm. The grain market was guided to some extent for obvious political reasons, but even here there was room for private initiative. The freedom to contract was stressed as late as Diocletian, but, not much later, rampant inflation forced him to issue his edict on maximum prices, which remains an exceptional regulation in many ways.

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The medical treatment of depression, 1991-1996: Productive inefficiency, expected outcome variations, and price indexes. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, 2000.

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Martin, Alex. Daffodils: Katy always longed for freedom, but never expected the price would be so high. Createspace Independent Publishing Platform, 2014.

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Bohlmann, Heinrich, i Rod Crompton. The impact on the South African economy of alternative regulatory arrangements in the petroleum sector. UNU-WIDER, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.35188/unu-wider/2020/910-5.

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This paper adds quantitative analysis to the study by Crompton et al. (2020), in which various alternative regulatory arrangements regarding the petrol price in South Africa were explored. We use a multi-sector dynamic computable general equilibrium model for South Africa to conduct our economic impact analysis. Five scenarios are modelled, first individually to correctly calibrate the shocks, and then cumulatively to find the overall economy-wide effects of the proposed reforms. Under the most comprehensive set of reforms to the determination of petrol prices, which seeks to emulate market forces, the South African economy is seeing substantial benefits. GDP is expected to rise by 0.67 per cent and real wages by over 1.1 per cent relative to the baseline. Refineries are assumed to shrug off reforms targeted at removing pure profits earned via the import parity price (Basic Fuel Price) methodology by accepting a slightly lower rate of return, enabling them to meet the expected increase in demand for petrol on the back of the lower consumer prices achieved via the reforms. Whilst job losses at fuel service stations may be expected as a result of reduced revenues and margins, increased activity and job opportunities in the rest of the economy, facilitated through cheaper trade and transport margins, will more than offset those losses.

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31

Walsh, Bruce, i Michael Lynch. Theorems of Natural Selection: Results of Price, Fisher, and Robertson. Oxford University Press, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198830870.003.0006.

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This chapter reviews a number of “theorems” of natural selection. These include exact results (true mathematical theorems): the Robertson-Price identity, Price's general expression for any form of selection response, and the Fisher-Price-Ewens version of Fisher's fundamental theorem. Their generality comes as the cost of usually being very difficult to apply. An important exception is the Robertson-Price identity, which expresses the within-generation change in the mean of a trait as its covariance with relative fitness. This chapter also examines three classic approximations: Fisher's fundamental theorem for the behavior of mean population fitness, and Robertson's secondary theorem and the breeder's equation for the expected response in a trait under selection, showing both how these results are connected and the error given by the various approximations. Finally, the chapter examines the connection between the additive variance of a trait and its correlation with fitness.

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32

Campbell, John. Stock Prices, Earnings and Expected Dividends. Natl Bureau of Economic Res, 1989.

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33

Andrew, Ang, i National Bureau of Economic Research., red. The cross-section of volatility and expected returns. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, 2004.

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34

Beer, Yishai. Military Strategy. Oxford University Press, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780190881146.003.0004.

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This chapter points at a paradox related to the gap between law and reality. Since it is the strategic level of war that mostly affects war’s conduct, one might have expected that the law of armed conflict—whose stated agenda is to humanize war’s arena—would focus upon it. The current law, however, generally ignores the strategic discourse and prefers to scrutinize the conduct of war through a tactical lens. This chapter challenges the current blind spot of the law: its disregard of the direct consequences of war strategy and the war aims derived from it. Ignoring reality by disregarding military strategy carries a humanitarian price that will be demonstrated in the prevailing law of targeting. The chapter asks of those who want to comprehensively reduce war’s hazards to think strategically—indeed, to face reality—and to leverage military strategy as a constraining tool.

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Stefan, Vogenauer. Ch.5 Content, third party rights and conditions, s.1: Content, Art.5.1.5. Oxford University Press, 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/law/9780198702627.003.0088.

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This commentary focuses on Article 5.1.5 of the UNIDROIT Principles of International Commercial Contracts (PICC) concerning the determination of the kind of duty involved. Art 5.1.5 provides criteria for determining the nature of contractual obligations. The question of whether an obligation involves a duty to achieve a specific result or a duty of best efforts is a result of the interpretation of the contract. Thus, Art 5.1.5 supplements the rules on contractual interpretation in Chapter 4 of the PICC. In determining the extent to which a party's obligation involves a duty of best efforts in the performance of an activity or a duty to achieve a specific result, regard shall be had to the way in which the obligation is expressed in the contract; the contractual price and other terms of the contract; the degree of risk normally involved in achieving the expected result; and the ability of the other party to influence the performance of the obligation.

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36

Back, Kerry E. Learning. Oxford University Press, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780190241148.003.0023.

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Continuous‐time filtering is explained, including the Kalman filter and filtering for a Markov chain with hidden states. Filtering theory is applied to analyze portfolio choice and equilibrium asset prices. When the expected return of an asset is unknown and is estimated from past returns, the myopic demand is a momentum strategy. When investors learn expected consumption growth from realized consumption growth, equilibrium prices are more sensitive to consumption shocks and the equity premium is higher. When the consumption growth rate follows a Markov chain with hidden states, return volatility tends to be higher when investors are less certain about which state the economy is in.

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Bell, Clive. Shadow prices for a small open economy under uncertainty: Which expected values are valid. UNU-WIDER, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.35188/unu-wider/2017/336-3.

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Stoneman, Paul, Eleonora Bartoloni i Maurizio Baussola. The Demand for a New Product. Oxford University Press, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198816676.003.0005.

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This is the first of three chapters that review the factors that drive the demand for, supply of, and the incentives to introduce new products. It explores the determination of the demand for newly launched products, with emphasis upon intertemporal development. Parallels are drawn with the literature on the diffusion of new technologies and it is emphasized how learning, differences between buyers, stock effects, order, and other effects impact upon the demand. The issue of new suppliers offering further products on the market is explored with a distinction between new to market and new to firm products and between horizontal and vertical innovations. The demand for a product innovation may change over time as products, knowledge, and the number of suppliers changes. One might expect that prices (and price expectations) play a major role in the determination of demand, but many other factors also come into play.

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Davis, George C., i Elena L. Serrano. Demand and Supply. Oxford University Press, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780199379118.003.0014.

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Chapter 14 introduces the ideas of consumer and producer sovereignty and addresses the questions: Who determines the prices and quantities of food in our food system? Consumers? Producers? Both? The chapter demonstrates that market prices and quantities occur where consumers and producers come together in the market as represented by the market supply and demand curves. The chapter shows how changes in demand and supply will affect prices and quantities in the market. Using the demand and supply framework, the chapter analyzes the expected impact of a proposed tax on sugar sweetened beverages to decrease caloric intake. The chapter ends with a demonstration and discussion of the effects of multiple changes in demand or supply on the market equilibrium prices and quantities.

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Back, Kerry E. Rational Expectations Equilibria. Oxford University Press, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780190241148.003.0022.

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When differences in beliefs are due to differences in information, investors learn from prices. If there are no risk‐sharing motives for trade, then differences in information do not lead to trade (the no‐trade theorem). Equilibrium prices can fully reveal information, but then there is no incentive to gather information (the Grossman‐Stiglitz paradox). Noisy trades or asset supplies facilitate partially revealing equilibria. In the Grossman‐Stiglitz model and the Hellwig model, prices equal discounted expected values minus a risk premium term that depends on the average precision of investors’ information weighted by their risk tolerances. The chapter explains the mechanics of updating beliefs when fundamentals and signals are normally distributed.

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Cukierman, Alex. Central Banks. Oxford University Press, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/acrefore/9780190228637.013.64.

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The first CBs were private institutions that were given a monopoly over the issuance of currency by government in return for help in financing the budget and adherence to the rules of the gold standard. Under this standard the price of gold in terms of currency was fixed and the CB could issue or retire domestic currency only in line with gold inflows or outflows. Due to the scarcity of gold this system assured price stability as long as it functioned. Wars and depressions led to the replacement of the gold standard by the more flexible gold exchange standard. Along with restrictions on international capital flows this standard became a major pillar of the post–WWII Bretton Woods system. Under this system the U.S. dollar (USD) was pegged to gold, and other countries’ exchange rates were pegged to the USD. In many developing economies CBs functioned as governmental development banks.Following the world inflation of the 1970s and the collapse of the Bretton Woods system in 1971, eradication of inflation gradually became the explicit number one priority of CBs. The hyperinflationary experiences of the first half of the 20th century, which were mainly caused by over-utilization of the printing press to finance budgetary expenditures, convinced policymakers in developed economies, following Germany’s lead, that the conduct of monetary policy should be delegated to instrument independent CBs, that governments should be prohibited from borrowing from them, and that the main goal of the CB should be price stability. During the late 1980s and the 1990s numerous CBs obtained instrument independence and started to operate on inflation targeting systems. Under this system the CB is expected to use interest rate policy to deliver a low inflation rate in the long run and to stabilize fluctuations in economic activity in the short and medium terms. In parallel the fixed exchange rates of the Bretton Woods system were replaced by flexible rates or dirty floats. The conjunction of more flexible rates and IT effectively moved the control over exchange rates from governments to CBs.The global financial crisis reminded policymakers that, of all public institutions, the CB has a comparative advantage in swiftly preventing the crisis from becoming a generalized panic that would seriously cripple the financial system. The crisis precipitated the financial stability motive into the forefront of CBs’ policy concerns and revived the explicit recognition of the lender of last resort function of the CB in the face of shocks to the financial system. Although the financial stability objective appeared in CBs’ charters, along with the price stability objective, also prior to the crisis, the crisis highlighted the critical importance of the supervisory and regulatory functions of CBs and other regulators. An important lesson from the crisis was that micro-prudential supervision and regulation should be supplemented with macro-prudential regulation and that the CB is the choice institution to perform this function. The crisis led CBs of major developed economies to reduce their policy rates to zero (and even to negative values in some cases) and to engage in large-scale asset purchases that bloat their balance sheets to this day. It also induced CBs of small open economies to supplement their interest rate policies with occasional foreign exchange interventions.

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Homburg, Stefan. Net Worth. Oxford University Press, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198807537.003.0005.

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Chapter 5 focuses on producers’ net worth. It joins a large strand rooted in the financial literature, which points out that under asymmetric information, producers need own equity to obtain credit. Incorporating this assumption yields scenarios with endogenous borrowing limits and shows that small variations in credit requirements have large macroeconomic consequences. A second theme concerns an unresolved problem of general equilibrium models. These determine equilibrium prices from decisions of producers and consumers who are ostensibly aware only of market prices and their own characteristics, i.e., technologies and preferences. However, consumers must also know current profits because these enter their budget constraints. As profits are determined in equilibrium, a logical circle emerges. Stock manias can be interpreted as situations where consumers overestimate profits; conversely, stock market crashes may reflect underestimations of profits. The text shows that misguided profit expectations as such do not have the expected impacts on economic activity.

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Pak, G. Sujin. Old Testament Prophecy and Protestant Conceptions of Sacred History. Oxford University Press, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780190866921.003.0007.

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Luther, Swiss Reformed leaders, and Calvin divergently identified the prime content of sacred history. Luther sharply contrasted the history of the kingdoms of Israel and Judah and historical prophecies of Christ in Old Testament prophecy, the latter serving as the prime content. Swiss Reformed exegetes affirmed the history pertaining to the Old Testament prophets and its Christological fulfillment and did not draw a stark contrast between these. Calvin emphasized the histories pertaining to the Old Testament prophets’ time as a mirror for God’s providential activity with the church across time. Luther’s view of sacred history affirmed a clear apocalyptic element, characterized by the expected decline of the Last Days. Calvin’s view almost completely lacked any apocalyptic element, viewing sacred history as a continual march of progress toward the culmination of Christ’s kingdom. Swiss Reformed leaders retained a stronger apocalyptic element, while ultimately affirming a progressive sense of history.

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44

McDyess, Sandra. Respect My Existence or Expect Resistance: Black Pride Anti Racism Blank Lined Note Book. Independently Published, 2018.

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author, planner kdp. Respect My Existence or Expect MY Resistance Notebook: Black Pride Anti Racism Blank Lined Note Book. Independently Published, 2020.

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46

Stevens, Paul. The Role of Oil and Gas in the Economic Development of the Global Economy. Oxford University Press, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198817369.003.0004.

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This chapter is concerned with the role of oil and gas in the economic development of the global economy. It focuses on the context in which established and newer oil and gas producers in developing countries must frame their policies to optimize the benefits of such resources. It outlines a history of the issue over the last twenty-five years. It considers oil and gas as factor inputs, their role in global trade, the role of oil prices in the macroeconomy and the impact of the geopolitics of oil and gas. It then considers various conventional views of the future of oil and gas in the primary energy mix. Finally, it challenges the drivers behind these conventional views of the future with an emphasis on why they may prove to be different from what is expected and how this may change the context in which producers must frame their policy responses.

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author, Anti Racism. Respect My Existence or Expect MY Resistance Notebook: Black Pride Anti Racism Blank Lined Note Book, 120 Pages 6 X 9. Independently Published, 2020.

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Berridge, Willow, Alex de Waal i Justin Lynch. Sudan's Unfinished Democracy. Oxford University Press, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780197657546.001.0001.

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Abstract This book tells the story of the Sudanese revolution of 2019; of how it succeeded in bringing down the long-standing rule of President Omar al-Bashir; and of the troubled transitional civilian-led government that was installed in his place. It sets the scrupulously non-violent uprising in its historical context, showing how the protesters drew upon the precedents of earlier civic revolutions and adapted their practices to the challenges of the al-Bashir regime. The book also explores how that regime was brought to its knees through its inability to manage the intersecting economic and political crises caused by the secession of South Sudan and the loss of oil revenue, alongside the uncontrolled expansion of a sprawling security apparatus. The civilian protesters called for--and expected--a total transformation of Sudanese politics, but they found themselves grappling with a still-dominant cabal of generals, who had powerful regional backers and a strong hold over the economy. Internally divided, and faced with a deepening economic crisis, the civilian government led by Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok has found itself in office, but with less and less real power, unable to change the conduct of political business as usual.

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Shatz, Marshall. Anarchism. Redaktor George Klosko. Oxford University Press, 2011. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199238804.003.0045.

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Anarchism rejects the state as an inherently despotic institution that must be abolished in order for human nature to flower. This does not mean the absence of social order, however, for anarchism also contains a positive vision of the kind of community it expects to arise when political authority is eliminated. Although it shares liberalism's commitment to individual autonomy and Marxism's commitment to social justice, anarchism claims that it can implement those principles more fully and effectively without utilizing the mechanism of the state. Anarchism as a secular political philosophy originated as a product of the Enlightenment and the French Revolution, and anarchist thought was the cumulative product of a number of different individuals in different countries who elaborated its basic principles. This article examines the views of several thinkers on anarchism, including William Godwin, Pierre-Joseph Proudhon, Michael Bakunin, and Prince Peter Kropotkin. It also considers the link between anarchism and terrorism.

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Jeffrey, Waincymer. Part IX Costs, Funding, and Ideas for Optimization, 28 Optimizing the use of Mediation in International Arbitration: A Cost–Benefit Analysis of ‘Two Hat’ Versus ‘Two People’ Models. Oxford University Press, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/law/9780198783206.003.0029.

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This chapter considers the question of whether an arbitrator may also adopt a mediation function or whether the dual roles are antithetical. It tests that hypothesis by engaging in a cost-benefit analysis of differing scenarios when mediation is utilized in an arbitral context. The prime comparison is between parallel mediation with a separate neutral and the alternative of a dual-role neutral. The three key points are: there should be much more mediation occurring at the international level, regarding both potential and actual arbitral disputes; a commercially minded arbitrator concerned for the parties’ good faith should encourage mediation where appropriate, in particular, when an adjudicated outcome will not be in the interests of either, usually because the dispute is a small part of a long-term relationship that can risk that relationship no matter who wins; and, while informed party autonomy should always support a dual-role neutral, in most factual permutations, informed parties could be expected to prefer parallel mediation provided there is full cooperation between mediator and arbitrator. The chapter argues that the relative benefits of the use of dual-role neutrals would be greatly outweighed by the costs in fairness and efficiency, and the inevitable need for a sub-optimal design of either or both dispute processes. The benefits would also be separately outweighed by the risks of significant disruption to any ensuing arbitration if a dual-role neutral fails to achieve a settlement.

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