Rozprawy doktorskie na temat „Energy Environment and Climate Change Programme”

In 2014, for the first time in its history, South Africa fed the national electricity grid with electricity generated through utility-scale renewable energy projects. The Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement Programme (REIPPPP) is the policy instrument driving this change. The process requires bidding private energy companies to commit resources in alleviation of local socio-economic needs. This thesis analyses the question how the institutions evolve in the implementation of community benefit requirements. The theoretical frameworks of institutional work and logics helps to analyse this new organizational field and interaction of various actors in government, industries and communities. An action research approach grounds this research empirically and aims to create the opportunity for actors to reflect on their actions and engagement in the community benefit implementation process. The research asks how are government, companies and communities shape institutions in the implementation of the community benefit requirements in South Africa's REIPPPP? The study first analyses the procurement requirements for community benefit and ownership, then, secondly, reviews the first 64 approved project bids for suggestions made in response to these requirements. A third research step involves fieldwork in 13 wind and solar projects across the country, the fieldwork consisting of interviews with project stakeholders about their experiences. The research negotiates access to an emerging and competitive, but also enquiring industry, one that has shared with the researcher important insights into its evolving community engagement and its development practices and considerations. The findings reveal that, in the implementation of South Africa's community renewables, government and companies dominate institutional work efforts in the stages of policy formulation and project development. But communities, the least informed and capacitated actor among the three, face the results and they have particular ways of responding, including corrective and disruptive ways. Reflective spaces are dominated by industry and strategically exclude communities from both asserting their experiences as well as from the opportunity to participate in creating collective understanding and agreeable processes that would foster the long-term relationship between company and community. This is a shortcoming that requires urgent attention to ensure positive institutional work and developmental impact.

This research addresses the dual challenge faced by Burkina Faso engineers to design sustainable low-energy cost public buildings and domestic dwellings while still providing the required thermal comfort under warmer temperature conditions caused by climate change. Past and potential climate induced future energy demand for air conditioning has been investigated. It was found based on climate change SRES scenario A2 that predicted mean temperature in Burkina Faso will increase by 2°C between 2010 and 2050. Therefore, in order to maintain a thermally comfortable 25°C inside public buildings, the projected annual energy consumption for cooling load will increase by 15%, 36% and 100% respectively for the period between 2020 to 2039, 2040 to 2059 and 2070 to 2089 when compared to the control case. It has also been found that a 1% increase in population growth will result in a 1.38% and 2.03% increase in carbon emission from primary energy consumption and future electricity consumption respectively. Furthermore, this research has investigated possible solutions for adaptation to the severe climate change and population growth impact on energy demand in Burkina Faso. It has been found that shading devices could potentially reduce the cooling load by up to 40%. Computer simulation programming of building energy consumption and a field study has shown that adobe houses have the potential of significantly reducing energy demand for cooling and offer a formidable method for climate change adaptation. Finally this research has shown, based on the Net Present Cost that hybrid photovoltaic (PV) and Diesel generator energy production configuration is the most cost effective local electricity supply system, for areas without electricity at present, with a payback time of 8 years when compared to the business as usual diesel generator stand-alone configuration. It is therefore a viable solution to increase electricity access to the majority of the population.

The Environmental footprint is a very powerful tool that helps an individual to understand how their everyday activities are impacting environmental surroundings. Data shows that global climate change, which is a growing concern for nations all over the world, is already affecting humankind, plants and animals through raising ocean levels, droughts & desertification and changing weather patterns. In addition to a wide range of policy measures implemented by national and state governments, it is necessary for individuals to understand the impact that their lifestyle may have on their personal environmental footprint, and thus over the global climate change. “My Footprint Calculator” (myfootprintcalculator.com) has been designed to be one the simplest, yet comprehensive, web tools to help individuals calculate and understand their personal environmental impact. “My Footprint Calculator” is a website that queries users about their everyday habits and activities and calculates their personal impact on the environment. This website was re-designed to help users determine their environmental impact in various aspects of their lives ranging from transportation and recycling habits to water and energy usage with the addition of new features that will allow users to share their experiences and their best practices with other users interested in reducing their personal Environmental footprint. The collected data is stored in the database and a future goal of this work plans to analyze the collected data from all users (anonymously) for developing relevant trends and statistics.

Global concern about climate change and its impacts on the environment isprogressively increasing. This has raised an important issue in the buildings andconstruction industry regarding the effects of climate change on the buildingenergy performance. Currently, many residential buildings do not fulfill theenergy requirements even with the current weather conditions, mainly becauseof poor design or because the buildings are designed according to olderregulations. Consequently, there is a need for significant changes in the buildingdesign and construction in order to create a more sustainable built environmentwith lower energy consumption. However, it is not possible to change all thesebuildings in order to meet the needs of today. It is therefore of utmostimportance that the energy production comes from renewable sources as ameans to mitigate the potential environmental impacts of climate change.In Sweden, the field of renewable energy has seen a significant growth inrecent years, and particularly in Gotland, where the project under investigationis located. In Gotland, several wind farms and wind turbines have already beeninstalled in order to benefit from the advantageous wind conditions of the island.However, the development of the project for improving the connection ofGotland’s electricity grid with the Swedish mainland power grid has come intoa halt since 2017, and Gotland is now facing major issues in terms of electricityconsumption. And as climate change only escalates in the future, it is crucial toaddress this issue. Through an extensive study of the residential sector ofGotland, this thesis examines the buildings’ energy performance with theintention of finding and proposing possible solutions and alternatives that caneventually flatten the peaks in the energy consumption of the built environmentin Gotland.

Conventional agriculture has impacts on the environment such as soil degradation, biodiversity loss and pollution of ecosystems, which could be enhanced further by climate change. The effects can be more or less extensive depending on whether adaptation is carried out. Agriculture in Sweden is controlled by EU- and national regulations that set the rules and possibilities for adaptation through financial and advisory support. This study aimed to examine what impacts climate change will impose on the agriculture in Sweden, as well as how the theoretical and practical side of the adaptation measures available through policy regulations, is perceived on farm level. The question of research was: ‘How sufficient are the agricultural policy regulations in enabling Swedish farmers to adapt to climate change?’, which was investigated by interviewing Swedish farmers. The results were analyzed through the theoretical framework adaptive capacity, as a criterion for successfully enabling climate change adaptation. The results showed that several barriers exist within the regulations which can obstruct adaptation due to bureaucratic complexity and a gap between theory and practice in regard to the effectiveness of measures. The results also showed that economic, human and social capital included in the adaptation capacity concept can be strengthened for better adaptation. The discussion presented several points of improvement for regulations to adopt a practical farm-perspective in order to enable farmers to adapt to climate change.
Konventionellt jordbruk har negativa effekter på miljön, såsom markförstöring, förlust av biologisk mångfald och förorening av omgivande ekosystem, vilket kan förvärras av klimatförändringar. Effekterna kan bli mer eller mindre omfattande beroende på om anpassning genomförs. Jordbruket i Sverige styrs av Europeiska- och nationella lagar som anger regler och möjligheter för anpassning genom ekonomiska och rådgivande stöd. Studien syftade till att undersöka vilka konsekvenser klimatförändringarna kan innebära för jordbruket i Sverige, samt hur den teoretiska och praktiska sidan av anpassningsåtgärder tillgängliga genom regelverket, uppfattas på gårdsnivå. Frågeställningen för undersökningen var således: ‘Hur tillräckliga är existerande regelverk i att möjliggöra svenska jordbrukares anpassning till klimatförändringar?’. Forskningsfrågan undersöktes genom en intervjustudie med svenska lantbrukare. Resultatet analyserades genom det teoretiska ramverket Anpassnings-kapacitet som är ett kriterium för att möjliggöra klimatanpassning. Resultatet visade att det existerar hinder inom regelverket som begränsar anpassning på grund av byråkratisk komplexitet samt en klyfta mellan teori och praktik gällande utvecklingen och effekten av åtgärder, vilket gav slutsatsen att regelverkets ansträngningar i att möjliggöra anpassning är överlag otillräckliga. Resultatet visade att ekonomiskt, human- och socialt kapital som ingår i konceptet Anpassnings-kapacitet kan stärkas för att bättre anpassning ska ske. Diskussionen presenterar flera förbättringar för att regelverket ska kunna anta ett gårds-perspektiv för att göra det möjligt för lantbrukare att anpassa sig till klimatförändringarna.

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Doutor em Ambiente
Energy and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios, generated by energy-economy-environment (E3) models, have been used to explore alternative futures and support energy and climate mitigation policy decisions. The uncertainty carried in these scenarios comes from inherent uncertainty of future conditions, reflected in the models input assumptions, and from the models intrinsic features (e.g. technology bottom-up vs. economic top-down models). The present research aims to improve future scenarios generation for energy and climate policy analysis by advancing on E3 modelling, using the Portuguese energy system as the case study. Main objectives include: (i) the assessment on how uncertainty impacts climate-energy policy decisions, (ii) the integration of storylines with energy modelling, providing a coherent context to modelling assumptions; (iii) the development of an hybrid modelling platform, combining the strengths of bottom-up and top-down models. Socio-economic driver was identified as a major assumption contributing to overall uncertainty on GHG emissions scenarios. Therefore, the socioeconomic storylines, built by stakeholders from different knowledge fields, were translated directly into energy modelling assumptions, which proved to increase the robustness of scenario development and its comprehensiveness. Separate use of the bottom-up TIMES_PT and top-down GEM-E3_PT revealed different mitigation options, which have a significant impact on policy design (i.e., low-carbon technologies vs. end-use energy efficiency). In consequence, the hybrid-modelling platform (HYBTEP) was built through the soft-link between TIMES_PT and GEM-E3_PT, combining cost minimizing detailed energy technology choices with sector disaggregated macroeconomic responses, respectively. The research also provides an empirical understanding of how to enable a low carbon transition for Portugal. According to TIMES_PT, it is technological feasible to reduce, in the long term (2050), the country’s energy-related GHG emissions up to 80% below 1990 emissions, being renewable power generation technologies a key for decarbonisation. However, HYBTEP outcomes suggest that, with a carbon tax in line to what is projected at EU-wide level, the country do not accomplish such mitigation target, reducing just 47% its GHG emissions, associated with loss of gross domestic product (GDP) of around 2% (according to revenue-recycling scheme assumed). On the opposite, a subsidy to renewable energy revealed long-term positive impacts at both environmental and economic level (i.e., emissions reduction by 31% and GDP gains above 2.8%). These results highlights the relevance of addressing the impacts to economy while considering the most cost-effective technologies over the development of low carbon scenarios, which is accomplish by HYBTEP modelling platform.
Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology - scholarship SFRH/BD/27549/2006 and the research project HybCO2 (PTDC/AAC-CLI/105164/2008)

The EU has, for a long time, portrayed itself as an international leader on climate change. Previous studies have tended to focus on the characteristics of EU leadership, but have failed to examine the extent to which EU leadership generates “followership”. Going beyond these existing approaches, this dissertation analyzes not just EU attempts at leadership but also the response of two potential followers: China and India. Based on extensive fieldwork, the dissertation explains the pattern of EU engagement and the response to engagement in each case, and makes three key arguments. First, EU engagement was driven by a desire to build the international role of the EU, but also from 2000 onwards in particular by growing normative concern and material interest within the EU regarding combating climate change. The development of engagement was also conditioned by the broader development of EU relations with China and India. Second, EU engagement took the form of institutionalized dialogue and capacity-building projects. These were generally more extensive in the EU-China case; the EU-India relationship was significantly more limited. Both cases were characterized by a lack of EU capacity—particularly the EU-India case—and to some extent by inconsistency and incoherence. Third, the Chinese Government responded through limited normative emulation and limited but growing lesson-drawing through bilateral cooperation in specific sectors. While the Indian Government also responded through limited normative emulation, the principal Indian response was resistance. Moreover, both the Chinese and Indian Governments resisted the EU approach to the international climate change negotiations. This pattern of engagement and significant resistance stemmed partly from the EU’s failure to develop sufficient capacity for effective engagement, but also partly due to significant differences in the way each side has framed the issue of climate change. Based on these findings, the dissertation concludes that while the EU was not entirely a leader without followers, it has acted as a highly restricted leader in its relations with China and India on climate change.

This thesis analyses the elements and problems underpinning Brazil’s hydroelectric system and climate change legislation, at both national and international levels. As hydropower dams' operation is threatened by climate change, an adaptive legal framework to create energy security in Brazil in the context of climate change is needed. The study particularly investigates human rights issues and makes a comparative analysis with the American legislation. The study also provides a global model for other countries that rely on hydropower dams and face similar climate change issues.

The aim of the research is to explore the differences in final energy consumption and environmental impact of the construction materials related to the atrium alternative and a business-as-usual and evaluate how to improve thermal properties of old buildings that require renovations to fit thermal efficiency standards and comfort in operational conditions while reducing the overall impact of the projects. Results show that for the low-rise atrium most of the parameters related to the final energy demands and environmental impacts of the atrium construction materials are proportional and linear to the increase of the glazing area size. When compared to simply renovating old structures, the atrium alternative can promote a decrease in thermal losses by transmission and increase in incident solar radiation through the glazed area depending on the atrium dimensions and glazing area size. And although cooling, heating, electrical and ventilation demands are raised for the overall demand of the building the construction of an atrium bears less environmental impact than renovating old structures damaged by weather.

2021-04-08

The management and delivery of water and wastewater consume significant amounts of energy, mostly in the form of electricity. With increasing populations, climate change, water quality issues and increasing energy prices, it is more important than ever to understand energy consumption patterns. Energy usually represents the largest operational cost in water utilities around the world, yet there is limited work aiming to quantify the specific relationship between water and its associated energy, and understand its implications for future decision-making. This thesis presents variousmethodological approachesto quantify and understand energy use in water infrastructure systems, as well as how to incorporate them in decision-making processes. The main hypotheses are as follows: firstly, a detailed understanding of the use of energy in water infrastructure systems can facilitate more efficient and sustainable water infrastructure systems and, secondly, that incorporating energy into planning for water and wastewater resources can help understand the impacts of decisions and establish trade-offs between actions. To test these hypotheses, the thesis presents an analytical approach to various areas. Firstly, it identifies, maps and quantifies the energy consumption patterns within a water infrastructure system. This is then used to identify inefficiencies and areas of potential energy saving. Secondly, it incorporates detailed energy costs into short and long-term water resources management and planning. Thirdly, it evaluates trade-offs between energy costs and changing effluent quality regulations in wastewater resources. The Thames River basin, in the south-east of England, is used as a case study to illustrate the approach. The results demonstrate that a systematic approach to the quantification of energy use in a water infrastructure system can identify areas of inefficiencies that can be used to make decisions with regards to infrastructure planning. For example, water systems have significant geo-spatial variations in energy consumption patterns that can be addressed specifically to reduce negative trade-offs. The results also show that incorporating detailed energy information into long-term water resources planning can alter the choices made in water supply options, by providing more complete information. Furthermore, methodologically, they show how several methodological approaches can be used to support more complete decision-making in water utilities to reduce short and long-term costs. In this particular case study, the results show that there are important differences in energy consumption by region, and significant differences in the seasonal and energy patterns of water infrastructure systems. For example, water treatment was shown to be the largest consumer of energy within the whole system, compared with pumping or wastewater treatment; but wastewater treatment energy consumption was shown to be the fastest growing over time due to changes in water quality regulatory frameworks. The results show that more stringent effluent standards could result in at least a doubling of electricity consumption and an increase of between 1.29 and 2.30 additional million tonnes of CO2 a year from treating wastewater in large works in the UK. These are projected to continue to increase if the decarbonisation of the electricity grid does not occur fast enough. Finally, the thesis also shows that daily energy consumption can be reduced by up to 18% by optimally routing water through a water network. optimization of water networks, and that a change in discount rates could change the daily operating costs by 19%, that in turn leads to a resulting different set of optimal investment options in a water supply network.

Questa tesi riporta una serie di attività di ricerca che indagano, sotto diversi aspetti spaziali e temporali, i temi di efficienza energetica, comfort e resilienza al cambiamento climatico relativi al settore edilizio. Il primo macroblocco tematico è incentrato sul design di logiche di controllo ottimizzate a servizio di svariati componenti edilizi, nella fattispecie: radiatori elettrici (logiche on-off, PID e fuzzy), finestre (algoritmi di comfort adattivi basati su qualità dell’aria e comfort termico), serre solari (ventilazione meccanica controllata a logica termoigrometrica) e ventilconvettori (modelli fuzzy e predittivi per la gestione degli apporti solari). Il secondo macroblocco indaga le ripercussioni del cambiamento climatico sulla performance energetica ed ergonomica dell’ambiente costruito, partendo dal singolo edificio fino a coinvolgere fenomenologie su scala urbana. Vengono dapprima presentati i risultati dello studio di quattro mesi condotto su territorio europeo nell’ambito dell’edizione 2015 del WISBA (Wienerberger Sustainable Building Academy): la resilienza di un edificio low-tech (rappresentato dal Building 2226, Austria) è investigata nel contesto delle condizioni climatiche attese nel 2050 per approdare ad una strategia di redesign anti obsolescenza prematura. In seguito, sono esposti e discussi i risultati di uno dei progetti di mitigazione dell’effetto isola di calore urbana, condotti in collaborazione con la University of New South Wales (Sydney, Australia): il caso limite rappresentato da una capitale tropicale (Darwin) è oggetto di monitoraggio, analisi, modellazione e sviluppo di contromisure specifiche. Nel complesso, l’intero percorso di ricerca mira a definire e testare su campo soluzioni ad elevato potenziale di risparmio energetico e comfort (indoor ed outdoor) tramite logiche smart e tecnologie orientate alla mitigazione dei fenomeni di surriscaldamento globale. Comun denominatore è l’inclusione di una robusta fase sperimentale.
This thesis addresses a series of research activities spanning the different spatial and temporal aspects of energy efficiency, comfort and climate change resilience throughout diverse scales of the built environment. The first macro-topic deals with the design of optimized control logics of specific building components, notably: electric radiators (on-off, PID and fuzzy controllers), windows (indoor air quality and thermal comfort driven adaptive comfort algorithm), sunspaces (smartly controlled mechanical ventilation) and fan coil units (fuzzy and model-predictive logics to counteract overabundant solar gains). The second macro-topic focuses on how climate change phenomena impinge on the energetic and ergonomic performance of buildings and cities. Firstly, the outcomes of the four-month experience in Europe, as a member of the 2015 WISBA edition (Wienerberger Sustainable Building Academy), are presented: the low-tech concept of Building 2226 (Austria) was tested in the frame of the actual climatic conditions and in view of the expected climate change to come in 2050. A re-design strategy was developed to enhance its resilience. Secondly, the results of one of the Urban Heat Island (UHI) mitigation projects run during the last year in collaboration with the University of New South Wales (Sydney, Australia) are illustrated and discussed: the borderline case of a tropical city (Darwin, Northern Territory) was monitored, analysed, modelled and tackled by developing customized counterbalance measures. Indeed, the overarching aim of the whole research path is to provide and field-test smart, optimized and mitigation-oriented solutions towards more efficient and liveable indoor and outdoor spaces. Special focus was given to the collection of on-site validated data, by planning robust monitoring campaigns and properly selecting the sensor networks.

Global warming induced by the emissions of greenhouse gases is one of the most important global environmental issues facing the world today. Using the building simulation techniques, this research investigates the interaction and relationship between global warming and built environment, particularly for the air-conditioned office buildings. The adaptation potential of various building designs is also evaluated. Based on the descriptive statistics method, the Pearson Product Moment Correlation and the regression analysis method, ten years of historical hourly climatic data for Australia are first analyzed. The distribution patterns of key weather parameters between a Test Reference Year (TRY) and multiple years (MYs), and between relatively cold and hot years are also compared. The possible cross-correlation between several different weather variables are then assessed and established. These findings form a useful basis and provide insights for the development of future weather models under "hot" global warming conditions and the explanation of building performance at different locations. Based on a review of the existing weather data generation models and findings from historic climatic data analysis, an effective method to generate approximate future hourly weather data suitable for the study of the impact of global warming is presented. This is achieved by imposing the future temperature projection from the global climate model on top of the historically observed weather data. Depending on the level of information available for the prediction of future weather conditions, this method allows either the method of retaining to current level, constant offset method or diurnal modelling method to be used. Therefore it represents a more comprehensive and holistic approach than previous one that have been used to convert the available weather data and climatic information to a format suitable for building simulation study. An example of the application of this method to the different global warming scenarios in Australia is also presented. The performance of a representative office building is then examined in details under the five weather scenarios (present, 2030 Low, 2030 High, 2070 Low and 2070 High) and over all eight capital cities in Australia. The sample building used for this study is an air conditioned, square shape, ten storey office tower with a basement carpark, which is recommended by the Australian Building Codes Board to represent the typical office building found in the central business district (CBD) of the capital cities or major regional centres in Australia. Through building computer simulations, the increased cooling loads imposed by potential global warming is quantified. The probable indoor temperature increases and overheating problems due to heat load exceeding the capacity of installed air-conditioning systems are also presented. It is shown that in terms of the whole building indoor thermal environment, existing buildings would generally be able to adapt to the increasing warming of the 2030 year Low and High scenarios projections and the 2070 year Low scenario projection. For the 2070 year High scenario, the study indicates that the existing office buildings in all capital cities will suffer from the overheating problem. To improve the building thermal comfort to an acceptable standard (ie, less than 5% of occupied hours having indoor temperature over 25°), a further increase of 4-10% of building cooling load is required. The sensitivity of different office building zoning (i.e. zone at different floors and/or with different window orientation) to the potential global warming is also investigated. It is shown that for most cities, the ground floor, and the South or Core zone would be most sensitive to the external temperature change and has the highest tendency to having the overheating problem. By linking building energy use to CO2 emissions, the possible increase of CO2 emissions due to increased building energy use is also estimated. The adaptation potential of different designs of building physical properties to global warming is then examined and compared. The parametric factors studied include the building insulation levels, window to wall ratio, window glass types, and internal load density. It is found that overall, an office building with a lower insulation level, smaller window to wall ratio and/or a glass type with lower shading coefficient, and lower internal load density will have the effect of lowering building cooling load and total energy use, and therefore have a better potential to adapt to the warming external climate. This phenomenon can be linked to the nature of internal-load dominated office-building characteristics. Based on these findings, a series of design and adaptation strategies have been proposed and evaluated.

Global warming induced by the emissions of greenhouse gases is one of the most important global environmental issues facing the world today. Using the building simulation techniques, this research investigates the interaction and relationship between global warming and built environment, particularly for the air-conditioned office buildings. The adaptation potential of various building designs is also evaluated. Based on the descriptive statistics method, the Pearson Product Moment Correlation and the regression analysis method, ten years of historical hourly climatic data for Australia are first analyzed. The distribution patterns of key weather parameters between a Test Reference Year (TRY) and multiple years (MYs), and between relatively cold and hot years are also compared. The possible cross-correlation between several different weather variables are then assessed and established. These findings form a useful basis and provide insights for the development of future weather models under "hot" global warming conditions and the explanation of building performance at different locations. Based on a review of the existing weather data generation models and findings from historic climatic data analysis, an effective method to generate approximate future hourly weather data suitable for the study of the impact of global warming is presented. This is achieved by imposing the future temperature projection from the global climate model on top of the historically observed weather data. Depending on the level of information available for the prediction of future weather conditions, this method allows either the method of retaining to current level, constant offset method or diurnal modelling method to be used. Therefore it represents a more comprehensive and holistic approach than previous one that have been used to convert the available weather data and climatic information to a format suitable for building simulation study. An example of the application of this method to the different global warming scenarios in Australia is also presented. The performance of a representative office building is then examined in details under the five weather scenarios (present, 2030 Low, 2030 High, 2070 Low and 2070 High) and over all eight capital cities in Australia. The sample building used for this study is an air conditioned, square shape, ten storey office tower with a basement carpark, which is recommended by the Australian Building Codes Board to represent the typical office building found in the central business district (CBD) of the capital cities or major regional centres in Australia. Through building computer simulations, the increased cooling loads imposed by potential global warming is quantified. The probable indoor temperature increases and overheating problems due to heat load exceeding the capacity of installed air-conditioning systems are also presented. It is shown that in terms of the whole building indoor thermal environment, existing buildings would generally be able to adapt to the increasing warming of the 2030 year Low and High scenarios projections and the 2070 year Low scenario projection. For the 2070 year High scenario, the study indicates that the existing office buildings in all capital cities will suffer from the overheating problem. To improve the building thermal comfort to an acceptable standard (ie, less than 5% of occupied hours having indoor temperature over 25°), a further increase of 4-10% of building cooling load is required. The sensitivity of different office building zoning (i.e. zone at different floors and/or with different window orientation) to the potential global warming is also investigated. It is shown that for most cities, the ground floor, and the South or Core zone would be most sensitive to the external temperature change and has the highest tendency to having the overheating problem. By linking building energy use to CO2 emissions, the possible increase of CO2 emissions due to increased building energy use is also estimated. The adaptation potential of different designs of building physical properties to global warming is then examined and compared. The parametric factors studied include the building insulation levels, window to wall ratio, window glass types, and internal load density. It is found that overall, an office building with a lower insulation level, smaller window to wall ratio and/or a glass type with lower shading coefficient, and lower internal load density will have the effect of lowering building cooling load and total energy use, and therefore have a better potential to adapt to the warming external climate. This phenomenon can be linked to the nature of internal-load dominated office-building characteristics. Based on these findings, a series of design and adaptation strategies have been proposed and evaluated.

This thesis undertakes three separate lifecycle analyses to determine the emissions and fossil energy demand required to process algae biomass into renewable fuel and animal feed. A complete well-to-wheel fuel-cycle analysis is conducted for the production of biodiesel and jet biofuel from algae biomass. The environmental impacts of algae-based fuels for the road transportation and aviation industry are benchmarked against analogue conventional fossil fuels. This thesis demonstrates that algae biofuel production can only realize its inherent environmental advantage of reduced GHG emissions, once every step of the production chain is fully optimized and decarbonized. This includes smart co-product utilization, offsetting fertilizers through wastewater recycling, reusing exhaust gases as additional CO2 source and using decarbonized electricity, heat and indirect energy. The definition of a Catalyst Sensitivity Index (CSI) demonstrates how catalytic efficiency increases can impact the fossil energy consumption and the greenhouse gas emissions balance of catalyst-dependent processes. The CSI will allow the industry to highlight 'best practice catalysts' and draw conclusions for what efficiency gains one could anticipate with higher performance catalysts. For countries where a decarbonized electricity and heat grid is not available to guarantee low-carbon algae fuel production and the looming resource scarcity around marine feed production has become more pressing, the alternative use of algae for aquafeed production is recommended. This thesis analyses major routes towards the future cost-competitive production of microbial biomass as sustainable fish meal and oil source to meet a global demand for depleting fish feed supplies. A comprehensive economic cost analysis and lifecycle assessment demonstrates the feasibility of replacing global fish meal and fish oil supplies with low-carbon and affordable algae feed by the year 2030. This research reveals how algae feed production has the potential to transform a pressing resource tipping point into a turning point.

Le changement climatique est devenu aujourd’hui le fléau environnemental qui préoccupe etmobilise le plus la communauté internationale. L’aboutissement de cette mobilisation générale reste sansdoute la mise en place du régime international de lutte contre le changement climatique dont la Conventioncadredes Nations Unies sur le changement climatique et le Protocole de Kyoto constituent les basesjuridiques. Ce régime innove en ce qu’il fixe des engagements quantifiés de réduction des émissions de gaz àeffet de serre pour les États pollueurs, mais aussi en ce qu’il instaure des mécanismes dits de « flexibilité »dont la mise en oeuvre est assortie d’un contrôle original basé sur un Comité dit de « l’observance ». Mais, endépit de toute cette production normative, il est regrettable de constater aujourd’hui que le régimeinternational du climat est un véritable échec. En effet, si la mobilisation des États ne fait aucun doute, enrevanche, les mêmes États qui ont volontairement accepté de s’engager refusent délibérément d’honorer leursengagements pour des raisons essentiellement politiques, économiques et stratégiques. Ce travail ambitionnedonc de lever le voile sur les causes de cet échec en dressant un bilan mitigé de la première périoded’engagement de Kyoto qui a pris fin en 2012, et propose des perspectives pour un régime juridique duclimat post-Kyoto efficient et efficace, en mesure d’être à la hauteur des enjeux
Climate change has become the scourge environmental concern and mobilizes more theinternational community. The outcome of this mobilization remains probably the implementation ofinternational climate change regime for which the Climate Convention and the Kyoto Protocol are the legalbases. This system is innovative in that it sets quantified emission reduction commitments for greenhouse gasemissions (GHG) for polluters States, but also in that it establishes mechanisms known as of “flexibility”whose implementation is accompanied by a control based on a Committee known as of “compliance”. Butdespite all this normative production, it is regrettable that today the international climate regime is a realfailure. Indeed, if the mobilization of states is no doubt, however, the same states that have voluntarily agreedto engage deliberately refuse to honour their commitments for essentially political, economic and strategicreasons. This work therefore aims to shed light on the causes of this failure by developing a mixed record ofthe first Kyoto commitment ended period in 2012, and offers prospects for a legal regime of the post-Kyotoclimate and efficient, able to be up to the challenges

Ethiopia has been challenged by multidimensional poverty. However, it has the potential to minimize the threat through an integrated multipurpose development process. In this regard, hydropower has a significant role to reduce energy poverty and enhance the multipurpose use of natural resources efficiency. Hydropower is a source of clean, sustainable and renewable energy. It has a contribution to reducing carbon emission and maintaining environmental sustainability. In Ethiopia, it is the major source of electricity. The country is rich in natural resources, including water to produce energy, however, electricity supply is still uncertain. The data shows that the country has the potential to produce 50,000 MW energy from water resources. Yet, it exploited 3,822 MW in 2018, approximately 7.6 % of its potential. Moreover, the country faces issues with energy security. Additionally, water and food supply also face an uncertain future. In this case, the country has planned the growth and transformation plan I and II for 2015 and 2020 to increase the energy production to 10,000 MW and 17,000 MW energy respectively. Consequently, the government launched different multipurpose hydropower plant projects. This project focuses on the multipurpose use of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, particularly for the sustainable energy-water-food-ecosystem service nexus at the national level. I applied the combination of methods such as the energy-water-food-ecosystem nexus, the SWOT analysis and the sustainability assessment as they are suitable for the complexity of such a project. Indeed, the GERD has benefits for the country in producing renewable and clean energy, generating income and increasing the water storage capacity at the national level. However, the project neglected the values of ecosystem services integration with the dam and its sectors. As a result, the dam affected the existed terrestrial biodiversity and ecosystem. Therefore, the GERD had not been the well-prepared plan that considers institutional cooperation and sectoral integration to use for multipurpose function and its sustainability. In these regards, unless the dam to take proper management of the project and natural resources, the hydropower plant would not have been generating sustainable energy production.

The paper shows that how to use the reservoir hydropower plant for multipurpose, such as for energy, water, food, ecosystem services integration at local level

Success or failure of climate policies in limiting warming to beneath particular thresholds depends on several physical, economic and social uncertainties. Whilst scenario analysis can be informative as to the types of policies that are required to achieve these goals, the complexity of scenario analysis often masks the underlying fundamental choices. This dissertation introduces the concept of the ‘decarbonization identity' to simply and systematically describe the mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive range of choices available in future climate policy decisions. The simple identity states that the remaining carbon budget [B] for a given level of warming can be partitioned into four areas: the already committed 'baked-in' emissions from existing capital stock [E]; new commitments arising from investments in additional capital stock yet to be made [N]; less the stranding of existing or future capital stock [S]; and the additional atmospheric space created by negative emissions technologies (NETs) [A]. This dissertation finds that currently operating electricity generators [E] would already emit more CO2 (~300 GtCO₂) then is compatible with currently available generation-only carbon budgets [B] for a temperature rise of 1.5-2°C (~240 GtCO₂). In addition, the current pipeline of planned fossil fuel power plants would add almost the same amount [N] of emission commitments (~270 GtCO₂) to this capital stock again. Finally, these carbon budgets are inherently uncertain and depend on future, yet to be achieved, reductions of short-lived climate pollutant (SLCP) emissions. Should those reductions not be achieved today's remaining carbon budgets could be up to 37% smaller. Policymakers have now five choices to achieve the Paris climate goals: (1) protect and enhance carbon budgets by early and decisive action on SLCPs; (2) retrofit existing power generators with carbon capture and storage (3) ensure that no new polluting capital stock is added; (4) strand a considerable amount of global electricity generation capacity; and (5) create additional atmospheric space by scaling up NETs. Over the coming years and decades, the challenge will be to identify the most efficient balance of these options.

La seguente Tesi di Dottorato si articola in cinque saggi che esaminano alcuni importanti aspetti legati all'energia in Africa subsahariana, e in particolare all'interazione tra lo sviluppo socio-economico e le sue implicazioni per l'ambiente a livello regionale e globale. I saggi sono introdotti da un capitolo di avvicinamento generale ai temi trattati. Questo capitolo prepara il lettore offrendo un riassunto delle principali sfide legate all'energia nel contesto subsariano e formulando le domande di ricerca e gli strumenti sui quali si basa la tesi stessa. Le principali implicazioni di ciascuno dei saggi, sia per la ricerca che per i decisori politici, vengono poi presentate in un capitolo di discussione finale. Il primo saggio esamina la problematica dell’accesso all'energia, e in particolare all'elettricità. Viene illustrato il ruolo dei dati satellitari e dell'analisi statistica dei dati geospaziali nel migliorare la comprensione della situazione dell'accesso all'elettricità in Africa subsahariana. Il saggio include un'analisi delle disuguaglianze che caratterizzano la qualità dell'accesso all'elettricità nella regione. Il risultato principale è che, dopo decenni, la disuguaglianza nell'accesso all'energia sta iniziando a diminuire. Essa rimane però prominente, in particolare per quanto riguarda la quantità di energia consumata. Viene stimato che gli sforzi di elettrificazione tra il 2020 e il 2030 debbano triplicare il loro passo per raggiungere l'obiettivo di sviluppo sostenibile SDG 7.1.1. Il secondo saggio consiste di una piattaforma di valutazione della domanda energetica bottom-up spazialmente esplicita per stimare il fabbisogno energetico tra le comunità in cui l'accesso all'elettricità è attualmente carente, come identificato con la metodologia introdotta nel primo saggio. La valutazione non si limita al fabbisogno energetico residenziale, ma include un resoconto dettagliato, basato sugli usi finali, del fabbisogno energetico di scuole, strutture sanitarie, pompaggio dell'acqua per l'irrigazione, lavorazione delle colture e microimprese, i principali motori dello sviluppo rurale. Viene condotto uno studio nazionale per il Kenya per dimostrare l'importanza di considerare molteplici fonti di domanda oltre al residenziale quando l'obiettivo è sviluppare una strategia di elettrificazione che supperisca veramente alla povertà energetica. Si dimostra poi che esiste un notevole potenziale di crescita della produttività e della redditività rurale grazie all'apporto di energia elettrica. In molte aree, questi profitti locali potrebbero ripagare gli investimenti nelle infrastrutture di elettrificazione in pochi anni. Il terzo saggio analizza un aspetto specifico dell'interazione tra pianificazione dell'accesso all'elettricità, domanda di energia residenziale e adattamento ai cambiamenti climatici. Vengono combinati dati e scenari climatici, satellitari e demografici per produrre una stima globale spazialmente esplicita della domanda di circolazione e condizionamento dell’aria non soddisfatta a causa della mancanza di accesso all'elettricità. Sulla base di modelli integrati di elettrificazione climatica-energetica e geospaziale, risulta che in Africa sub-sahariana, l'hotspot globale della povertà energetica, tenere conto del fabbisogno di circolazione e condizionamento dell’aria locale stimato (in aggiunta agli obiettivi di consumo residenziale di base) determini una riduzione sostanziale della quota di sistemi standalone come l'opzione di elettrificazione meno costosa entro il 2030, e un importante aumento della capacità di generazione di elettricità e dei requisiti di investimento. Tali risultati suggeriscono la necessità di una maggiore considerazione delle esigenze di adattamento climatico nella pianificazione dei sistemi energetici dei paesi in via di sviluppo e nella valutazione del trade-off tra l'espansione della rete elettrica centrale e sistemi decentralizzati per raggiungere un’elettrificazione universale. La pianificazione dell'elettrificazione deve essere tecnicamente efficiente, ma deve anche considerare l'ambiente politico-economico in cui gli investimenti vengono canalizzati. Il quarto saggio valuta il ruolo della governance e della qualità regolatoria nel quadro di modellazione dell'accesso all'energia elettrica. In particolare, si introduce un indice di governance dell'accesso all'elettricità basato su più indicatori che viene poi implementato nel modello di elettrificazione IMAGE-TIMER. L’effetto dell’indice viene modellato attraverso il suo effetto modificatore sui tassi di sconto privati (una misura del rischio e della disponibilità ad accettare costi futuri rispetto ai costi attuali). I risultati mostrano che la governance e la qualità regolatoria nell'accesso all'elettricità hanno un impatto significativo sul mix tecnologico ottimale e sui flussi di investimenti privati per raggiungere l'elettrificazione universale in Africa subsahariana. In particolare, un ambiente rischioso scoraggia l’investimento da parte dei fornitori privati di soluzioni di accesso decentralizzato all'energia, con il rischio di lasciare molti senza elettricità anche oltre il 2030. Il quinto e ultimo saggio analizza il settore energetico africano da un punto di vista ‘Nexus’. Il saggio valuta l'affidabilità del sistema energetico nei sistemi energetici dominati dall'energia idroelettrica (come in molti paesi dell'Africa centrale e orientale) e del ruolo che i cambiamenti climatici e gli eventi estremi possono esercitare su di esso. Il lavoro combina analisi qualitative e quantitative per (i) proporre un solido framework per evidenziare le interdipendenze tra energia idroelettrica, disponibilità di acqua e cambiamento climatico, (ii) analizzare sistematicamente lo stato dell'arte sugli impatti previsti dei cambiamenti climatici su l'energia idroelettrica nell'Africa subsahariana e (iii) fornire evidenza empirica sui trend passati e sulle traiettorie di sviluppo futuro del settore. I risultati suggeriscono che il cambiamento climatico influenzerà l'affidabilità e la sicurezza della fornitura elettrica attraverso diversi canali. Ad esempio, molti dei principali bacini idrologici sono stati caratterizzati da una diminuzione del livello idrico nel corso del ventesimo secolo. Si evidenzia come tuttavia una diversificazione del mix di generazione elettrico sia finora stata promossa solo in un numero limitato di paesi. Si suggerisce infine che l'integrazione delle fonti rinnovabili variabili con l'energia idroelettrica possa aumentare la resilienza del sistema.
This dissertation is a collection of five essays examining some important energy-related aspects at the interplay of sub-Saharan Africa (SSA)’s development and its interactions with the regional and global environment. The essays are introduced by a general overview chapter – highlighting the core energy-related challenges of SSA and the scope of this work. The main implications of the essays, both for research and for policymakers, are then considered in the final discussion chapter. The first essay focuses on access to modern energy, and chiefly on electricity. I illustrate the role of satellite data and the statistical analysis of geospatial data in improving the understanding of the electricity access situation in sub-Saharan Africa. The essay includes an analysis of inequality characterising the electricity access quality in the region. The main finding is that after decades, energy access inequality is beginning to decline but it remains prominent in particular as far as the quantity consumed is concerned. I find that electrification efforts between 2020 and 2030 must triplicate their pace to meet Sustainable Development Goal 7.1.1. The second essay develops a spatially-explicit bottom-up energy demand assessment platform to estimate the energy needs among communities where access to electricity is currently lacking, as identified with the methodology introduced in the first essay. The assessment is not restricted to residential energy needs, but it includes a detailed, appliance-based account of power needs for schools, healthcare facilities, water pumping for irrigation, crop processing, and micro enterprises, the key drivers of rural development. I carry out a country-study for Kenya to show the importance of considering multiple demand sources beyond residential when the aim is developing an electrification strategy which truly overcomes energy poverty. I also show that there is considerable potential for rural productivity and profitability growth thanks to the input of electric energy. In many areas, these local profits might pay back the electrification infrastructure investment in only few years. The third essay analyses a specific aspect at the interplay between electricity access planning, household energy demand and climate change adaptation. I combine climate, satellite, and demographic data and scenarios to produce a global spatially-explicit estimate of unmet ACC demand due to the lack of electricity access. Based on integrated climate-energy and geospatial electrification modelling, I find that in sub-Saharan Africa, the global hotspot of energy poverty, accounting for the estimated local ACC needs on top of baseline residential consumption targets determines a substantial reduction in the share of decentralised systems as the least-cost electrification option by 2030, and a major ramp-up in the power generation capacity and investment requirements. My results call for a greater consideration of climate adaptation needs in the planning of energy systems of developing countries and in evaluating the trade-off between the central power grid expansion and decentralised systems to achieve universal electrification. Electrification planning must be techno-economically efficient, but it must also consider the political-economic environment where investment needs to be channelled. The fourth essay evaluates the role of governance and regulatory quality in the electricity access modelling framework. In particular, I introduce an Electricity Access Governance Index based on multiple indicators implement it into the PBL’s IMAGE-TIMER electrification model through its modifier effect on private discount rates (a measure of risk and willingness to accept future costs vis-à-vis present costs). The results show that governance and regulatory quality in electricity access have a significant impact on the optimal technological mix and the private investment flows for reaching universal electrification in sub-Saharan Africa. In particular, risky environment crowd out private providers of decentralised energy access solutions with the risk of leaving many without electricity even after 2030. The fifth and final essay takes a nexus perspective in the analysis of the African power sector. It deals with the reliability of the energy system in hydropower-dominated power systems (such as in many countries in Central and East Africa) and the role that climate change and extreme events can exert on it. The essay combines qualitative and quantitative analysis to (i) propose a robust framework to highlight the interdependencies between hydropower, water availability, and climate change, (ii) systematically review the state-of-the art literature on the projected impacts of climate change on hydropower in sub-Saharan Africa, and (iii) provide supporting evidence on past trends and current pathways of power mix diversification, drought incidence, and climate change projections. I find that climate change can affect supply reliability and security in multiple ways. For instance, several major river basins have been drying throughout the twentieth century. Nonetheless, I highlight that diversification has hitherto only been promoted in a limited number of countries. I suggest how integrating variable renewables and hydropower can increase system resilience.

La seguente Tesi di Dottorato si articola in cinque saggi che esaminano alcuni importanti aspetti legati all'energia in Africa subsahariana, e in particolare all'interazione tra lo sviluppo socio-economico e le sue implicazioni per l'ambiente a livello regionale e globale. I saggi sono introdotti da un capitolo di avvicinamento generale ai temi trattati. Questo capitolo prepara il lettore offrendo un riassunto delle principali sfide legate all'energia nel contesto subsariano e formulando le domande di ricerca e gli strumenti sui quali si basa la tesi stessa. Le principali implicazioni di ciascuno dei saggi, sia per la ricerca che per i decisori politici, vengono poi presentate in un capitolo di discussione finale. Il primo saggio esamina la problematica dell’accesso all'energia, e in particolare all'elettricità. Viene illustrato il ruolo dei dati satellitari e dell'analisi statistica dei dati geospaziali nel migliorare la comprensione della situazione dell'accesso all'elettricità in Africa subsahariana. Il saggio include un'analisi delle disuguaglianze che caratterizzano la qualità dell'accesso all'elettricità nella regione. Il risultato principale è che, dopo decenni, la disuguaglianza nell'accesso all'energia sta iniziando a diminuire. Essa rimane però prominente, in particolare per quanto riguarda la quantità di energia consumata. Viene stimato che gli sforzi di elettrificazione tra il 2020 e il 2030 debbano triplicare il loro passo per raggiungere l'obiettivo di sviluppo sostenibile SDG 7.1.1. Il secondo saggio consiste di una piattaforma di valutazione della domanda energetica bottom-up spazialmente esplicita per stimare il fabbisogno energetico tra le comunità in cui l'accesso all'elettricità è attualmente carente, come identificato con la metodologia introdotta nel primo saggio. La valutazione non si limita al fabbisogno energetico residenziale, ma include un resoconto dettagliato, basato sugli usi finali, del fabbisogno energetico di scuole, strutture sanitarie, pompaggio dell'acqua per l'irrigazione, lavorazione delle colture e microimprese, i principali motori dello sviluppo rurale. Viene condotto uno studio nazionale per il Kenya per dimostrare l'importanza di considerare molteplici fonti di domanda oltre al residenziale quando l'obiettivo è sviluppare una strategia di elettrificazione che supperisca veramente alla povertà energetica. Si dimostra poi che esiste un notevole potenziale di crescita della produttività e della redditività rurale grazie all'apporto di energia elettrica. In molte aree, questi profitti locali potrebbero ripagare gli investimenti nelle infrastrutture di elettrificazione in pochi anni. Il terzo saggio analizza un aspetto specifico dell'interazione tra pianificazione dell'accesso all'elettricità, domanda di energia residenziale e adattamento ai cambiamenti climatici. Vengono combinati dati e scenari climatici, satellitari e demografici per produrre una stima globale spazialmente esplicita della domanda di circolazione e condizionamento dell’aria non soddisfatta a causa della mancanza di accesso all'elettricità. Sulla base di modelli integrati di elettrificazione climatica-energetica e geospaziale, risulta che in Africa sub-sahariana, l'hotspot globale della povertà energetica, tenere conto del fabbisogno di circolazione e condizionamento dell’aria locale stimato (in aggiunta agli obiettivi di consumo residenziale di base) determini una riduzione sostanziale della quota di sistemi standalone come l'opzione di elettrificazione meno costosa entro il 2030, e un importante aumento della capacità di generazione di elettricità e dei requisiti di investimento. Tali risultati suggeriscono la necessità di una maggiore considerazione delle esigenze di adattamento climatico nella pianificazione dei sistemi energetici dei paesi in via di sviluppo e nella valutazione del trade-off tra l'espansione della rete elettrica centrale e sistemi decentralizzati per raggiungere un’elettrificazione universale. La pianificazione dell'elettrificazione deve essere tecnicamente efficiente, ma deve anche considerare l'ambiente politico-economico in cui gli investimenti vengono canalizzati. Il quarto saggio valuta il ruolo della governance e della qualità regolatoria nel quadro di modellazione dell'accesso all'energia elettrica. In particolare, si introduce un indice di governance dell'accesso all'elettricità basato su più indicatori che viene poi implementato nel modello di elettrificazione IMAGE-TIMER. L’effetto dell’indice viene modellato attraverso il suo effetto modificatore sui tassi di sconto privati (una misura del rischio e della disponibilità ad accettare costi futuri rispetto ai costi attuali). I risultati mostrano che la governance e la qualità regolatoria nell'accesso all'elettricità hanno un impatto significativo sul mix tecnologico ottimale e sui flussi di investimenti privati per raggiungere l'elettrificazione universale in Africa subsahariana. In particolare, un ambiente rischioso scoraggia l’investimento da parte dei fornitori privati di soluzioni di accesso decentralizzato all'energia, con il rischio di lasciare molti senza elettricità anche oltre il 2030. Il quinto e ultimo saggio analizza il settore energetico africano da un punto di vista ‘Nexus’. Il saggio valuta l'affidabilità del sistema energetico nei sistemi energetici dominati dall'energia idroelettrica (come in molti paesi dell'Africa centrale e orientale) e del ruolo che i cambiamenti climatici e gli eventi estremi possono esercitare su di esso. Il lavoro combina analisi qualitative e quantitative per (i) proporre un solido framework per evidenziare le interdipendenze tra energia idroelettrica, disponibilità di acqua e cambiamento climatico, (ii) analizzare sistematicamente lo stato dell'arte sugli impatti previsti dei cambiamenti climatici su l'energia idroelettrica nell'Africa subsahariana e (iii) fornire evidenza empirica sui trend passati e sulle traiettorie di sviluppo futuro del settore. I risultati suggeriscono che il cambiamento climatico influenzerà l'affidabilità e la sicurezza della fornitura elettrica attraverso diversi canali. Ad esempio, molti dei principali bacini idrologici sono stati caratterizzati da una diminuzione del livello idrico nel corso del ventesimo secolo. Si evidenzia come tuttavia una diversificazione del mix di generazione elettrico sia finora stata promossa solo in un numero limitato di paesi. Si suggerisce infine che l'integrazione delle fonti rinnovabili variabili con l'energia idroelettrica possa aumentare la resilienza del sistema.
This dissertation is a collection of five essays examining some important energy-related aspects at the interplay of sub-Saharan Africa (SSA)’s development and its interactions with the regional and global environment. The essays are introduced by a general overview chapter – highlighting the core energy-related challenges of SSA and the scope of this work. The main implications of the essays, both for research and for policymakers, are then considered in the final discussion chapter. The first essay focuses on access to modern energy, and chiefly on electricity. I illustrate the role of satellite data and the statistical analysis of geospatial data in improving the understanding of the electricity access situation in sub-Saharan Africa. The essay includes an analysis of inequality characterising the electricity access quality in the region. The main finding is that after decades, energy access inequality is beginning to decline but it remains prominent in particular as far as the quantity consumed is concerned. I find that electrification efforts between 2020 and 2030 must triplicate their pace to meet Sustainable Development Goal 7.1.1. The second essay develops a spatially-explicit bottom-up energy demand assessment platform to estimate the energy needs among communities where access to electricity is currently lacking, as identified with the methodology introduced in the first essay. The assessment is not restricted to residential energy needs, but it includes a detailed, appliance-based account of power needs for schools, healthcare facilities, water pumping for irrigation, crop processing, and micro enterprises, the key drivers of rural development. I carry out a country-study for Kenya to show the importance of considering multiple demand sources beyond residential when the aim is developing an electrification strategy which truly overcomes energy poverty. I also show that there is considerable potential for rural productivity and profitability growth thanks to the input of electric energy. In many areas, these local profits might pay back the electrification infrastructure investment in only few years. The third essay analyses a specific aspect at the interplay between electricity access planning, household energy demand and climate change adaptation. I combine climate, satellite, and demographic data and scenarios to produce a global spatially-explicit estimate of unmet ACC demand due to the lack of electricity access. Based on integrated climate-energy and geospatial electrification modelling, I find that in sub-Saharan Africa, the global hotspot of energy poverty, accounting for the estimated local ACC needs on top of baseline residential consumption targets determines a substantial reduction in the share of decentralised systems as the least-cost electrification option by 2030, and a major ramp-up in the power generation capacity and investment requirements. My results call for a greater consideration of climate adaptation needs in the planning of energy systems of developing countries and in evaluating the trade-off between the central power grid expansion and decentralised systems to achieve universal electrification. Electrification planning must be techno-economically efficient, but it must also consider the political-economic environment where investment needs to be channelled. The fourth essay evaluates the role of governance and regulatory quality in the electricity access modelling framework. In particular, I introduce an Electricity Access Governance Index based on multiple indicators implement it into the PBL’s IMAGE-TIMER electrification model through its modifier effect on private discount rates (a measure of risk and willingness to accept future costs vis-à-vis present costs). The results show that governance and regulatory quality in electricity access have a significant impact on the optimal technological mix and the private investment flows for reaching universal electrification in sub-Saharan Africa. In particular, risky environment crowd out private providers of decentralised energy access solutions with the risk of leaving many without electricity even after 2030. The fifth and final essay takes a nexus perspective in the analysis of the African power sector. It deals with the reliability of the energy system in hydropower-dominated power systems (such as in many countries in Central and East Africa) and the role that climate change and extreme events can exert on it. The essay combines qualitative and quantitative analysis to (i) propose a robust framework to highlight the interdependencies between hydropower, water availability, and climate change, (ii) systematically review the state-of-the art literature on the projected impacts of climate change on hydropower in sub-Saharan Africa, and (iii) provide supporting evidence on past trends and current pathways of power mix diversification, drought incidence, and climate change projections. I find that climate change can affect supply reliability and security in multiple ways. For instance, several major river basins have been drying throughout the twentieth century. Nonetheless, I highlight that diversification has hitherto only been promoted in a limited number of countries. I suggest how integrating variable renewables and hydropower can increase system resilience.

Climate change brings with it a set of challenges if our buildings are to remain thermally comfortable whilst energy consumption is kept to a minimum and greenhouse gas emissions are reduced. As a means of addressing these issues, three models have been constructed using future climate data as forecast by the UK Climate Projections (UKCP09), and they have been used to inform the Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) 2050 Calculator. Observing there to be a correlation between regionalised National Grid non-daily metered gas demand and daily air temperature, the first model uses these data and UKCP09 data to estimate future energy savings deriving from a reduced requirement for space heating across the built environment. Using UKCP09 data, the second model estimates the increase in the uptake of residential air-conditioning if the UK were to follow the same experience as Canada, regression data showing a correlation between penetration levels of air-conditioning in the residential sector and air temperature in North America. Resultant levels of space cooling energy consumption are calculated using two different bottom-up approaches, the first of which uses the dwelling as the base unit, and the second of which uses the air-conditioner. Deriving from conventional degree-day theory and substantiated through a series of building simulations, the third model uses a novel metric, the Adaptive Comfort Degree-Day, to estimate the energy savings potential of employing adaptive comfort standards for future climates using UKCP09 data. Finally, it is found that pathways prescribed as achieving an 80% reduction in emissions levels by 2050 remain successful when the DECC 2050 Calculator is updated with correctly-weighted air temperatures. However, the demand for space heating is under-estimated by up to 99 TWh when the Calculator is amended so as to take account of data from the preceding space heating model.

Doctor of Philosophy
Department of Environmental Design & Planning Program
Lee R. Skabelund
The Restorative Urban Design (RUD) calls for a new urban design and planning approach targeting environmentally responsible re/development of urbanized areas through ecologically responsive impact mitigations. If implemented in a systematic manner, such re/developments can help move urban areas toward the successful restoration of the natural environment of which they are an inseparable part. The RUD model advocates more rigorous assessment and mitigation of urban impacts by carefully evaluating the environmental performance of urban re/developments within five primary dimensions: Atmosphere (emissions, pollutants, ozone depletion); Hydrosphere (stormwater, domestic water, wastewater); Lithosphere (land use, land cover, food and wastes); Ecology (habitat resilience, biodiversity, population and resources); and Energy (renewability, reduction and efficiency, transportation). The model relies on a scenario-comparison process in order to evaluate and optimize the performance of urban re/development projections through four critical scenarios, which are respectively: 1) Natural Baseline (NBASE); 2) Historic Progression (HPROG); 3) Trajectory Forecast (TFORE); and 4) Restorative Projection (RPROJ). The RUD Case Study illustrates how the principles and strategies of Restorative Urban Design can be applied specifically to a typical (densely developed) urban area, namely River North District in Chicago Metropolitan Area. The case study focuses exclusively on mitigation of a single critical human impact on the natural environment: Anthropogenic CO₂ Emissions. The case study focuses on the design assumptions by which the restorative urban re/development scenarios might exceed beyond the full mitigation of emissions into the global remediation by 2040. The restorative projections illustrate that only a certain portion of emissions can be effectively mitigated onsite (5 to 55%), and that the remainder of projected emissions (45 to 95%) need to be mitigated offsite in order to achieve the necessary sequestration and storage. The restorative research suggests that the mitigation of major human impacts on the natural environment – not only CO₂ emissions but also other major impacts – are likely to require significant urban transformations. Moving beyond the strategies of preservation and/or conservation, the restorative approach asserts that comprehensive environmental restoration is achievable if urban impacts are adequately estimated and then entirely mitigated onsite as well as offsite through a systematic process of urban re/development.

Cette thèse porte sur la place nouvellement attribuée aux énergies renouvelables dans un département français encore largement rural, la Charente-Maritime, alors que commence à se poser, ici comme ailleurs, la question du changement climatique et celle de l’épuisement des énergies fossiles dans un contexte privilégiant de plus en plus la mise en place de mesures de protection de l’environnement. La thèse passe en revue les différentes énergies renouvelables d’ores et déjà produites et utilisées en Charente-Maritime ou dont la mise en œuvre est envisagée (hydroélectricité, solaire, éolien, énergie issue de la biomasse). Plusieurs exemples précis d’exploitations agricoles impliquées dans la production et la consommation de ces nouvelles énergies sont longuement présentés. La thèse s’intéresse également au potentiel de développement de ces énergies, à leurs retombées sur l’environnement et à la façon dont elles sont perçues, tant par les agriculteurs que les élus locaux, les responsables d’associations ou les habitants en général. Il apparaît clairement que la politique de développement des énergies renouvelables actuellement menée en Charente-Maritime est incitative, tout particulièrement en ce qui concerne l’énergie solaire et la biomasse énergie au profit desquelles les aides régionales et départementales sont importantes (mise en œuvre d’une filière locale bois – énergie dans le pays Saintonge Romane). Par contre, l’édification de parcs éoliens est freinée par les pouvoirs publics en raison de leur trop fort impact paysager dans un département à vocation touristique affirmée. La thèse montre, en fin de compte, que le bilan environnemental que l’on peut tirer de toutes ces innovations apparaît mitigé : le recours aux énergies renouvelables réduit un peu la dépendance des campagnes charentaises à l’égard des énergies fossiles, mais l’impact environnemental direct de ces nouvelles sources d’énergie apparaît ambigu et pour le moins contrasté. L’étude, quoique conduite dans un cadre territorial relativement restreint, est néanmoins largement représentative des transformations en cours dans les campagnes françaises, voire européennes, les particularités locales et nationales ayant été clairement soulignées
This thesis deals with the newly role given to the renewable energies in a still rural French area, The Charente Maritime, while here and there, two issues are at stake : the question of climate change as well as the dramatic decrease of fossil energy stocks, in a period more and more turning towards the implementation of environment protection measures.Our research makes a review of the different renewable energies. Firstly the ones already produced and used in Charente Maritime, secondly the ones whose implementation is planned and eventually those which are in a state of project. (hydroelectric, solar, wind and biomass energies). The thesis is also about the potential of these energies expansion, about their consequences on environment, and in the way farmers, local representatives, association leaders and inhabitants view them.As a conclusion the thesis shows that environment results that we can draw from all these innovations is mixed : while the use of renewable energies reduce a little the dependence of Charentaises countries from fossil energies, the direct environment impact of these new energy sources appears ambiguous and especially contrasted. The study has been made in a quite little geographical area. It is all the same representative of the current changes in the French as well as the European countryside, the local and national specificities having been clearly underlined

Il concetto di rete dell'informazione può diventare uno schema logico con cui descrivere l'evoluzione delle politiche sulle energie rinnovabili e sulla sostenibilità? La ricerca è stata svolta analizzando l'architettura delle due reti (internet e reti energetiche) e l'evoluzione del bene prodotto e distribuito nella rete energetica, l'energia, esplicitando l'accessibilità da parte della distribuzione mondiale delle risorse petrolifere tradizionali e delle risorse rinnovabili. La struttura metodologica del progetto di ricerca si basa due tipi di analisi teorica: 1) l'analisi della nascita delle società in rete attraverso le teorie di Manuel Castells (concetto di spazio di flussi) e di Saskia Sassen e l'evoluzione delle città (cap.2 e cap.5) 2) le analisi dei flussi dei materiali e delle energie avendo come riferimento metodologico l'approccio ecologico ideato dai ricercatori dell'istituto per il Clima, l'Ambiente e l'Energia di Wuppertal, Germania (cap.3 e cap.4) La contraddizione tra città innovative e città che sono ai livelli di enormi discariche o di baraccopoli è esposta nel cap.6 attraverso casi studio e progetto dei Programmi Europei. Nell'ultimo capitolo (cap.7) si riassumono le ipotesi di partenza e i risultati della ricerca e si espongono le questioni aperte.
Can internet logic scheme be used as a basis to describe public policies evolution on renewable energies production and sharing in urban areas all over the world? The research project analyses the two networks (internet and energetic grids) architectures in actual and future urban areas. This analysis is connected with present and future forecasts energy productions from traditional fuels and from renewable sources. Theoretical analysis is conducted following a double conceptual pathway: - societal networks (Manuel Castells theory) and urban areas evolution (Saskia Sassen and Mike Davis) in order to picture the evolution of cities and towns in modern economies and in developing countries (Chapters 2 and 5); - Material and Energy Flow Analysis (approach by Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy) applied to renewable energy (Chapters 3 and 4) In Chapter 6 case studies are exposed on the deep cleavage between two different worlds: innovative, rich towns on a side and the landfills cities, slums on the other side. In the last part hypothesis and thesis are put together and open questions are explained (Chapter 7).

Il concetto di rete dell'informazione può diventare uno schema logico con cui descrivere l'evoluzione delle politiche sulle energie rinnovabili e sulla sostenibilità? La ricerca è stata svolta analizzando l'architettura delle due reti (internet e reti energetiche) e l'evoluzione del bene prodotto e distribuito nella rete energetica, l'energia, esplicitando l'accessibilità da parte della distribuzione mondiale delle risorse petrolifere tradizionali e delle risorse rinnovabili. La struttura metodologica del progetto di ricerca si basa due tipi di analisi teorica: 1) l'analisi della nascita delle società in rete attraverso le teorie di Manuel Castells (concetto di spazio di flussi) e di Saskia Sassen e l'evoluzione delle città (cap.2 e cap.5) 2) le analisi dei flussi dei materiali e delle energie avendo come riferimento metodologico l'approccio ecologico ideato dai ricercatori dell'istituto per il Clima, l'Ambiente e l'Energia di Wuppertal, Germania (cap.3 e cap.4) La contraddizione tra città innovative e città che sono ai livelli di enormi discariche o di baraccopoli è esposta nel cap.6 attraverso casi studio e progetto dei Programmi Europei. Nell'ultimo capitolo (cap.7) si riassumono le ipotesi di partenza e i risultati della ricerca e si espongono le questioni aperte.
Can internet logic scheme be used as a basis to describe public policies evolution on renewable energies production and sharing in urban areas all over the world? The research project analyses the two networks (internet and energetic grids) architectures in actual and future urban areas. This analysis is connected with present and future forecasts energy productions from traditional fuels and from renewable sources. Theoretical analysis is conducted following a double conceptual pathway: - societal networks (Manuel Castells theory) and urban areas evolution (Saskia Sassen and Mike Davis) in order to picture the evolution of cities and towns in modern economies and in developing countries (Chapters 2 and 5); - Material and Energy Flow Analysis (approach by Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy) applied to renewable energy (Chapters 3 and 4) In Chapter 6 case studies are exposed on the deep cleavage between two different worlds: innovative, rich towns on a side and the landfills cities, slums on the other side. In the last part hypothesis and thesis are put together and open questions are explained (Chapter 7).

Residential electricity demand arises from the need for households to meet various end-use energy services. This demand has seen consistent growth over the last decade currently accounting for close to a quarter of the total electricity consumption in the country. In developing economies like India this sector will also be a key contributor to future greenhouse emissions given that we are starting from a comparatively low base. But our understanding of this sector is still limited. To gain a better understanding of this space, we approach this problem in two parts. In the first part, we outline a methodology to design and conduct a representative survey by presenting the case study of a primary survey we conducted of Bengaluru. Using the survey, we model appliance ownership and usage patterns identifying key contributing end-use categories and variations in patterns of electricity consumption across households. Next, we develop a bottom-up, end-use model, disaggregated by regions, to project growth in end-use energy service categories. We identify growth in ownership of key appliances and changes in consumption driven by this growth. We model changes in consumption patterns at different regional disaggregation identifying key demand drivers. Based on model insights from the primary survey and national model, we identify key policy amendments and suggest some new policy directions to manage the growth of demand from the residential sector.

Climate change is thought to be one of the most pressing environmental problems facing humanity. However, due in part to failures in political communication and how the issue has been historically defined in American politics, discussions of climate change remain gridlocked and polarized. In this dissertation, I explore how climate change has been historically constructed as a political issue, how conflicts between climate advocates and skeptics have been communicated, and what effects polarization has had on political communication, particularly on the communication of climate change to skeptical audiences. I use a variety of methodological tools to consider these questions, including evolutionary frame analysis, which uses textual data to show how issues are framed and constructed over time; Kullback-Leibler divergence content analysis, which allows for comparison of advocate and skeptical framing over time; and experimental framing methods to test how audiences react to and process different presentations of climate change. I identify six major portrayals of climate change from 1988 to 2012, but find that no single construction of the issue has dominated the public discourse defining the problem. In addition, the construction of climate change may be associated with changes in public political sentiment, such as greater pessimism about climate action when the electorate becomes more conservative. As the issue of climate change has become more polarized in American politics, one proposed causal pathway for the observed polarization is that advocate and skeptic framing of climate change focuses on different facets of the issue and ignores rival arguments, a practice known as “talking past.” However, I find no evidence of increased talking past in 25 years of popular newsmedia reporting on the issue, suggesting both that talking past has not driven public polarization or that polarization is occurring in venues outside of the mainstream public discourse, such as blogs. To examine how polarization affects political communication on climate change, I test the cognitive processing of a variety of messages and sources that promote action against climate change among Republican individuals. Rather than identifying frames that are powerful enough to overcome polarization, I find that Republicans exhibit telltale signs of motivated skepticism on the issue, that is, they reject framing that runs counter to their party line and political identity. This result suggests that polarization constrains political communication on polarized issues, overshadowing traditional message and source effects of framing and increasing the difficulty communicators experience in reaching skeptical audiences.

Dissertation

abstract: The finite supply of current energy production materials has created opportunities for the investigation of alternative energy sources in many fields. One example is the use of microorganisms in bioenergy applications, such as microbial fuel cells. Present in many types of environments, microorganisms with the ability to respire solid electron acceptors have become of increasing relevance to alternative energy and wastewater treatment research. In this dissertation, several aspects of anode respiration are investigated, with the goal of increasing the limited understanding of the mechanisms of electron transport through the use of advanced electrochemical methods. Biofilms of Geobacter sulfurreducens, the model anode respiring organism, as well as its alkaliphilic relative, Geoalkalibacter ferrihydriticus, were investigated using chronoamperometry, electrochemical impedance spectroscopy, and cyclic voltammetry. In G. sulfurreducens, two distinct pathways of electron transport were observed through the application of advanced electrochemical techniques on anode biofilms in microbial electrochemical cells. These pathways were found to be preferentially expressed, based on the poised anode potential (redox potential) of the electrode. In Glk. ferrihydriticus, four pathways for electron transport were found, showing an even greater diversity in electron transport pathway utilization as compared to G. sulfurreducens. These observations provide insights into the diversity of electron transport pathways present in anode-respiring bacteria and introduce the necessity of further characterization for pathway identification. Essential to science today, communication of pressing scientific issues to the lay audience may present certain difficulties. This can be seen especially with the topics that are considered socio-scientific issues, those considered controversial in society but not for scientists. This dissertation explores the presentation of alternative and renewable energy technologies and climate change in undergraduate education. In introductory-level Biology, Chemistry, and Physics textbooks, the content and terminology presented were analyzed for individual textbooks and used to evaluate discipline-based trends. Additional extensions were made between teaching climate change with the active learning technique of citizen science using past research gains from studies of evolution. These observations reveal patterns in textbook content for energy technologies and climate change, as well as exploring new aspects of teaching techniques.
Dissertation/Thesis
Doctoral Dissertation Biological Design 2016

The purpose of this study was to qualitatively examine how nonrenewable energy companies frame and manage the issue of climate change in their online communication, specifically sustainability reports. The issue cycle framework was applied through a rhetorical analysis to determine where coal and oil/gas companies place climate change in the issue cycle and subsequently manage the issue. Coal companies were determined to place climate change in lower stages of the issue cycle while oil/gas companies placed the issue later in the issue cycle. The issues management strategies of these companies also aligned with where they placed climate change in the issue cycle. This study then sought to understand the differences between the approaches of coal and oil/gas companies by examining factors such as financial standing, business models, and each industry’s publics.

Climate change is considered one of the most severe threats to the natural world and global economy. For that reason, the assessment of climate change impacts and mitigation policies have deserved the attention of the scientific and political communities worldwide. One of the main drivers of climate change are the variations in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHG), which are primarily released by the energy sector. On the other hand, the most evident physical impact of climate change is global warming, which interferes with the water cycle, in particular through changes in precipitation, thereby affecting the availability and variability of supply of and demand for water resources. Water, in turn, is essential in the energy production chain and a key input for the power sector – in particular for hydropower generation. Hence, the energy sector, not only, contributes to climate change but is, also, vulnerable to climate change impacts. Simultaneously, the energy supply sector has significant potential for climate change mitigation, notably through increased efficiency and the deployment of renewable-sourced technologies, such as hydropower. The overall objective of this thesis is to analyse the impacts and feedbacks between water resources, the energy sector and the economy in the face of energy and climate goals as well as climate change. For the case of the Mediterranean country of Portugal, the analysis focusses on i) the economic impacts of current energy/climate policies and targets, and ii) the economic impacts of future climate-driven changes in water resources availability and competition. Results show that: i) attaining energy saving targets is most cost-effectively achieved through a reduction in primary energy consumption of fossil fuels and that achieving a reduction in final energy consumption is most cost-effectively achieved through the taxation of all energy products; ii) stronger climate change impacts and associated reductions in water resources availability imply an increasing role of fossil fuels in the power mix, thus increasing GHG emissions and undermining the compliance with climate goals; iii) macroeconomic and sectoral impacts of climate change are stronger if competition for water between hydropower and the other economic sectors is not considered and if transboundary competition for water is taken into account; and iv) the impacts of climate change related reductions in water resources availability result in decreases in gross domestic product (GDP) of between -0.1% and -3.2%. Hence, beyond the quantification of the economic impacts of climate/energy policies and climate-driven changes in water resources availability and competition by 2050, the analyses provide relevant insights that are of utmost importance for energy and climate policy-making
As alterações climáticas são consideradas uma das mais sérias ameaças ao mundo natural e à economia global. Por essa razão, a avaliação dos impactos das alterações climáticas e a definição de políticas de mitigação têm merecido a atenção das comunidades científica e política em todo o mundo. Uma das principais causas das alterações climáticas são as variações da concentração de gases com efeito de estufa (GEE) na atmosfera, que são maioritariamente emitidos pelo setor energético. Por outro lado, o impacto físico mais evidente das alterações climáticas é o aquecimento global, que interfere com o ciclo da água, em particular através de alterações da precipitação, e afeta a disponibilidade e a variabilidade da oferta e da procura de recursos hídricos. A água é, por sua vez, essencial na cadeia de produção do setor energético, e um input crucial para o setor elétrico – em particular, para a produção hidroelétrica. Assim, o setor energético não só contribui para as alterações climáticas, como é, também, vulnerável aos seus impactos. Ao mesmo tempo, o setor energético tem um significativo potencial de mitigação das alterações climáticas, nomeadamente através de aumentos de eficiência e da produção a partir de fontes renováveis, como a hidroelétrica. O objetivo global desta tese é analisar os impactos e feedbacks entre recursos hídricos, o setor energético e a economia, considerando os objetivos de energia e clima e as alterações climáticas. Para o caso de Portugal, país Mediterrânico, a análise foca-se i) nos impactos económicos das metas fixadas pelas políticas de energia/clima em vigor e ii) nos impactos económicos da redução da disponibilidade e da competição pela água, decorrentes das alterações climáticas. Os resultados mostram que: i) a forma mais custo-eficaz de alcançar objetivos de poupança de energia é através da redução do consumo de energia primária de origem fóssil, e que a forma mais custo-eficaz de alcançar objetivos de poupança de energia final é através da redução do consumo de todos os produtos (fósseis e renováveis); ii) impactos mais severos das alterações climáticas e a redução da disponibilidade de água que lhes está associada implicam um papel crescente dos combustíveis fósseis no mix elétrico, o que provoca um aumento das emissões de GEE e pode pôr em causa o cumprimento de objetivos climáticos; iii) os impactos macroeconómicos e setoriais das alterações climáticas são mais fortes se a concorrência pela água entre a produção hidroelétrica e os restantes setores económicos não for considerada, e se a concorrência transfronteiriça for tida em conta; e iv) os impactos das alterações climáticas na disponibilidade de água levam a uma redução do produto interno bruto entre -0.1% e -3.2%. Para além da quantificação dos impactos económicos das políticas de energia/clima e dos efeitos das alterações climáticas na disponibilidade de recursos hídricos, a análise fornece elementos relevantes para a definição de políticas de energia e clima
Programa Doutoral em Ciências e Engenharia do Ambiente

This dissertation examines the impact of the expansion of renewable technology at both national and local level, through distinct essays. At the national level, the first paper analyzes the effects of economic and distributional impacts of climate mitigation policy, in the context of a developing country, to understand the interactions between the energy system and the macroeconomic environment. In the case of the local level, the second paper uses synthetic control method, to estimate the effect at the county level of utility scale wind in the development indicators for two counties in the U.S.

The first paper assesses the economic and distributional impacts of Nicaragua’s commitments to limit future greenhouse gas emissions in the context of the Paris Agreement, known as the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). The analysis relies on two distinct models. The first is a top-down approach based on a single-country computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, known as the Mitigation, Adaptation and New Technologies Applied General Equilibrium (MANAGE) Model. The second is a bottom-up approach based on the Open-Source energy Modeling System (OSeMOSYS), which is technology rich energy model. The combined model is calibrated to an updated social accounting matrix for Nicaragua, which disaggregates households into 20 representative types: 10 rural and 10 urban households. For the household disaggregation we have used information from the 2014 Living Standards Measurement Study (LSMS) for Nicaragua. Our analysis focuses on the distributional impacts of meeting the NDCs as well as additional scenarios—in a dynamic framework as the MANAGE model is a (recursive) dynamic model. The results show that a carbon tax has greatest potential for reduction in emissions, with modest impact in macro variables. An expansion of the renewable sources in the electricity matrix also leads to significant reduction in emissions. Only a carbon tax achieves a reduction in emissions consistent with keeping global warming below 2°C. Nicaragua’s NDC alone would not achieve the target and mitigation instruments are needed. An expansion of generation from renewable sources, does not lead to a scenario consistent with a 2°C pathway.

The second paper measures the impact of wind generation on county level outcomes through the use of the Synthetic Control Method (SCM). SCM avoids the pitfalls of other methods such as input-output models and project level case studies that do not provide county level estimates. We find that the local per capita income effect of utility wind scale is 6 percent (translate into an increase of $1,511 in per capita income for 2019) for Benton County and 8 percent for White county in Indiana (an increase of $2,100 in per capita income for 2019). The per capita income effect measures the average impact, which includes the gains in rents from capital, land, and labor from wind power in these counties. Moreover, we find that most of the rents from wind power accrue to the owners of capital and labor. Even assuming the lowest projections of electricity prices and the highest reasonable cost we still find a 10 percent minimum rate of return to capital for both Benton and White counties’ wind power generators. Furthermore, we find that there are excess rents that could be taxed and redistributed at the county, state, or federal level without disincentivizing investment in wind power.

O combate contra as alterações climáticas é um tema que cada vez mais está na ordem do dia. Além do futuro da espécie humana depender do resultado, o turismo em particular tem interesse em agir de formas sustentáveis. Como pilar central do sector, a hotelaria tem o dever de liderar e dar o exemplo. Tendo em conta que muitas das abordagens até agora feitas têm tido pouco sucesso ou estão desactualizadas, este trabalho pretende não só informar mas também servir de suporte para gestores que se pretendam actualizar. Para isso, propõe várias políticas de sustentabilidade e equipamentos que podem ser primariamente aplicados num edifício hoteleiro para melhorar a sua performance a nível ambiental. Pese embora os muitos casos de sucesso mencionados, faz-se também um estudo da viabilidade de duas das soluções propostas. Os resultados mostram que, na teoria, essas soluções podem ser utilizadas e a certo ponto ser uma mais-valia para um hotel ou serviço.
Fighting against climate change is an increasingly relevant topic. Besides the fact that future of the human species depends on the outcome of this struggle, tourism in particular has reasons to act in sustainable ways. As an important foundation in the sector, the lodging industry has the duty to lead by example. Given the fact that many of the existing approaches so far have had little success or are outdated, this paper intends to not only inform but also to aid managers that wish to update themselves. With that in mind, it proposes several sustainability policies and equipments that can be applied in order to improve a hotel’s environmental performance. Besides the many success stories mentioned, this paper also studies the theoretical viability of two proposed solutions. Results show that in theory these solutions can be used to give a hotel or service a performance advantage.