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1

Дядечко, Алла Миколаївна, Алла Николаевна Дядечко, Alla Mykolaivna Diadechko i N. Koval. "The economic crises of 2008". Thesis, Вид-во СумДУ, 2009. http://essuir.sumdu.edu.ua/handle/123456789/16865.

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Granath, Jakob. "ECONOMIC CRISES AND CRIME : The Effects of the Great Recession on Swedish Crime Rates". Thesis, Uppsala universitet, Nationalekonomiska institutionen, 2021. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-448078.

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This paper investigates the impact of the 2008's financial crisis on local crime rates in Sweden. I deploy a difference-in-differences approach that contrasts the changes in reported crimes between municipalities that are more or less crisis-exposed. The results show no significant effect on any crime category nor the aggregate crime rate. However, there are indications of more densely populated municipalities experiencing an increase in crimes with underlying financial incentives, although not robust. The results are similar when the effect of the Great Recession is compared to the major financial crisis that hit Sweden in the early 90s, suggesting that economic crises do not cause any reactions in crimes. One explanation could be the increase in social grants recipients and the participation in labour market programmes. Both of which cushions the fall in income and reduces criminal motivation. The results appear robust for a variety of alternative severity measures. Potential spillovers between adjacent municipalities do not seem to be a threat as the results are similar for county-level regressions. Overall, the findings in this paper point towards the number of reported crimes being unaffected by the crisis exposure measured as the employment change and change in retail sales.
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3

Adnan, Noureen. "Financial development, economic growth and crises". Thesis, University of Surrey, 2012. http://epubs.surrey.ac.uk/770388/.

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The importance of financial markets in a globalised economy cannot be overstated. An obvious example is the 2008 collapse of Lehman Brothers, the consequences of which were not just confined to the United States but spread to almost all developed economies in the world. On a daily basis movement in the world's stock, bond, commodity and currency markets can be affected by as diverse factors as a revision to the inflation rate in China, an unexpected European Union meeting on the Euro or the announcement of company earnings in the U.S. The link between financial markets and the real economy, the increased volatility in financial markets, and the repercussions of financial crises are issues of great interest to economic agents (policymakers, firms, households) around the world. However, they are of even greater significance to developing nations, as they try to raise their living standards. The research presented in this thesis aims to inform the discussion on the pertinence of financial development for economic growth. Following a brief introduction, Chapter 2 sets the scene by reviewing the neo- classical growth models and endogenous growth theory. The rationale for focusing v - on the role of financial development is discussed next followed by all evaluation of the empirical evidence. Chapter 3 concentrates on the measurement of financial de- velopment. Existing measures are examined and a new measure is introduced using the latest available data for the largest possible number of economies. The principal components methodology, which reduces the dimensionality of the data, is used for the construction of this new measure. This is then used to revisit the empirical relationship between financial development and growth in Chapter 4. The method- ology employed is that of least squares dummy variables (LSDV) estimation, and the issue of potential endogeneity is explored through the use of two-stage ordinary least squares (OLS) and generalised method of moments (GMM). Chapter 5 undertakes a large sample analysis to address the relationship between financial development, and the likelihood of financial crises and chapter 6 summaries the findings from this work and discusses limitations and possible extensions. VI.
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Thaicharoen, Yunyong. "Essays on economic crises and institutions". Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2002. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/8418.

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Thesis (Ph.D.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Economics, 2002.
Includes bibliographical references.
Countries that have pursued distortionary macroeconomic policies, including high inflation, large budget deficits and misaligned exchange rates, appear to have suffered bigger exchange rate crises, more macroeconomic volatility and also grown more slowly during the postwar period. Does this reflect the causal effect of these macroeconomic policies on economic outcomes? One reason to suspect that the answer may be no is that countries pursuing poor macroeconomic policies also have weak "institutions," including political institutions that do not constrain politicians and political elites, ineffective enforcement of property rights for investors, widespread corruption, and a high degree of political instability. Two papers in this thesis document that countries that inherited more "extractive" institutions from their colonial past were more likely to experience high volatility and economic crises during the postwar period. More specifically, societies where European colonists faced high mortality rates more than 100 years ago are much more volatile and prone to crises. We interpret this relationship as due to the causal effect of institutions on economic outcomes: Europeans did not settle and were more likely to set up extractive institutions in areas where they faced high mortality. Once we control for the effect of institutions, macroeconomic policies appear to have only a minor impact on volatility and crises. This suggests that distortionary macroeconomic policies are more likely to be symptoms of underlying institutional problems rather than the main causes of economic volatility, and also that the effects of institutional differences on volatility do not appear to be primarily mediated by any of the standard macroeconomic variables.
(cont.) Instead, it appears that weak institutions cause volatility through a number of microeconomic, as well as macroeconomic, channels. The third paper reports relevant findings from bond markets. There appears to be no higher cost of borrowing for emerging market borrowers if their bonds are easier to restructure in the case of default. Given our findings on institutions, we suggest that default is likely to remain a recurrent event in many countries, and suggest that bond issuers and lenders should consider bonds that are easier to restructure.
by Yunyong Thaicharoen.
Ph.D.
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5

Manning, Brett. "Does economic inequality cause financial crises?" Thesis, Durham University, 2014. http://etheses.dur.ac.uk/10654/.

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Inequality rose rapidly in the run up to the 1929 stock market crash and the 2007 financial crisis. Both crises precipitated long and deep recessions. This paper seeks to determine if there is any deeper relationship between inequality and financial stability. The work presents an empirical investigation of the topic and theoretical model of how such a relationship could exist. My original contribution to the literature is threefold: (1) the empirical detection of a small interaction between economic inequality and propensity tofinancial crises, (2) the presentation of a novel measure of financial stability using principal component analysis and its interaction with economic inequality, and (3) the presentation of a novel theoretical model that demonstrates a possible mechanism by which inequality may reduce financial stability.
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6

Robert, Marc. "Economic fluctuations in emerging market economies". Toulouse 1, 2003. http://www.theses.fr/2003TOU10043.

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Cette thèse étudie les fluctuations économiques, et plus particulièrement les crises récentes, dans les pays émergents. Nous utilisons des modèles d'équilibre général de petite économie ouverte afin d'analyser le déclenchement et la propagation des crises dans les économies émergentes. Nous étudions, dans un premier temps, les causes de la crise coréenne de 1997-1998. Nous nous consacrons ensuite à l'étude du rôle de la contrainte de crédit dans la propagation des crises récentes. Nous montrons que des chocs très différents peuvent induire un sudden stop si l'accès aux marchés des capitaux est contraint. La dernière partie de la thèse est une étude empirique du lien entre le cycle économique et les flux de capitaux dans les pays émergents. Nous montrons, grâce à un test de Granger, que les variations des flux de capitaux ne causent pas les variations du produit intérieur brut, même pendant les épisodes de sudden stops, alors que l'inverse se révèle vrai
This thesis focuses on economic fluctuations in emerging economies, with a particular emphasis put on the recent sudden stop crises. In a first step, we study the triggering of the crisis and focus on the 1997-1998 Korean crisis. We use a calibrated general equilibrium model to discriminate between the domestic and external causes of the crisis. Then, we analyze the role played by credit rationning in explaining the amplification of sudden stops in emerging economies. Using a general equilibrium model of a small open economy, we show that including a credit constraint into the model is a crucial assumption in order to be able the reproduce the sudden stops main characteristics. The last step is an empirical study of the link between capital flows and emerging economies business cycles. We prove that movements in capital flows do not Granger cause changes in emerging countries GDP growth rates even during sudden stop episodes, whereas the reverse causal relationship turns out to be true
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Ntampoudi, Ioanna. "Can economic crises constitute collective identity crises? : the case of Greek European identity during the Greek debt/Eurozone crisis". Thesis, Aston University, 2017. http://publications.aston.ac.uk/37501/.

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This thesis consists of a socio-psychological study of Greek European identity within the context of the Greek debt/Eurozone crisis. Drawing insights from Social Representations Theory (SRT) and Social Identity Theory (SIT), it approaches the question of identity in a dual manner, as are presentation and a psychological experience. The motivation of the research is enacted through the questioning of whether economic crises can provoke crises of collective identities. Its contribution is both theoretical and empirical. The thesis argues that although the term ‘identity crisis’ is a frequently used one, especially in conditions of post-modernity, an analytical elucidation of the varied destabilising dynamics behind potential ‘identity crises’ is unclear within existing literature. Furthermore, it is postulated that as useful and enlightening a social psychological approach may be for the study of identities, and although SIT’s focus on identity threats as destabilising for group self-esteem can help us understand identity dynamics, the discipline still lacks a more systematic analytical framework of identity destabilisations. The thesis develops an elaborate typology and conceptualisation of identity destabilisations and operationalises it for the study of Greek European identity through a triangulated single case study research design, combining a variety of data sources, such as historiographical data, media texts, expert and elite interviews, and interviews with non-expert citizens. The typology includes the destabilisations of identity conflict,identity devaluation, identity overvaluation and identity deficit. The results of the study indicate that the public discourse of the debt/Eurozone crisis has been abundant in representations of all such identity destabilisations. The interviews with Greek experts and elites, called in this study ‘ideational leaders’, and with non-expert citizens, designate that the most prevalent forms of identity destabilisation, both at the level of representation and of psychological experience in Greek society are those of identity conflict and identity devaluation. The results show a distinct public preoccupation with ideas, such as national self-reflection and collective responsibility. The representations made by expert and non-expert citizens approximate each other quite closely, while comparisons across the data sources and across time bring to the fore continuities of narratives and identity representations, which are explained within SRT’s assumption of anchoring as a return to previously established knowledge for the comprehension of new phenomena, as well as within the constraints faced by discursive actors in their attempts to construct new realities. It is concluded that a new narrative is necessitated for Greek European identity.
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8

Kim, Wangsik. "Economic crisis and financial reform in Japan and Korea". free to MU campus, to others for purchase, 2003. http://wwwlib.umi.com/cr/mo/fullcit?p3100053.

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Ali, Abdilahi. "Essays on capital flows, crises and economic performance". Thesis, University of Manchester, 2013. https://www.research.manchester.ac.uk/portal/en/theses/essays-on-capital-flows-crises-and-economic-performance(e3ad530a-2794-4192-ab0b-cd0fcda06e59).html.

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This thesis explores three important factors that have been central to the pursuit of economic development in developing countries, particularly those in Africa. These are capital flows, economic integration and financial crises. Chapter 1 examines the causes and consequences of capital flight in African countries. Building on standard portfolio choice model, the study links the phenomenon of capital flight to the domestic investment climate (broadly defined) and shows that African agents move their portfolios abroad as a result of a deteriorating domestic investment climate where the risk-adjusted rate of return is unfavourable. The results presented suggest that economic risk, policy distortions and the poor profitability of African investments explain the variation in capital flight. In addition, employing a PVAR and its corresponding impulse responses, the chapter shows that capital flight shocks worsen economic performance. Chapter 2 explores the (independent) effects of crises and openness on a large sample of African countries using dynamic panel techniques. Focusing on sudden stops, currency, twin and sovereign debt crises, the chapter shows that economic crises are associated with growth collapses in Africa. In contrast, economic openness is found to be beneficial to growth. More importantly, we find that, consistent with standard Mundell-Flemming type models and sticky-price open economy models, greater openness to trade and financial flows mitigates the adverse effects of crises. In the final chapter, we examine whether capital flows such as FDI, foreign aid and migrant remittances crowd-in or crowd-out domestic investment in developing countries. Applying recently developed panel cointegration techniques which can handle cross-sectional heterogeneity, serial correlation and endogeneity, we find that FDI and remittances have a positive and significant effect on domestic investment in the long-run while aid tends to act as a substitute for investment. We also conduct panel Granger causality analysis and find that the effect of FDI on investment is both transitory as well as permanent. That is, it tends to crowd-in domestic investment both in the short-run and in the long-run. We do not find any causal links between foreign aid and investment. The results show that, while remittances do not have causal effects on investment in the short-run, there is a bidirectional (causal) relationship between the two in the long-run.
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Pino, Saldias Gabriel. "Analysis and Identification of Determinants of Economic Crises". OpenSIUC, 2013. https://opensiuc.lib.siu.edu/dissertations/760.

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The general objective of this dissertation is to analyze the transmission of global economic crises in order to provide useful information to preserve the stability of the economy. To attain this general objective, three specific objectives are pursued through the different chapters of this study. Chapter 2 analyses the contagion effect in the US banking sector. To achieve this goal, the spatial correlation methodology is used to capture the effect of the risk-taking of banks that belong to a same neighborhood. Our results reveal the usefulness of the approach proposed by this dissertation as a proper tool to track and monitor the contagion in the banking sector. In particular, we provide evidence of a significant contagion effect thorough three different channels: banks that belong to the same state, same Federal-Reserve district, and are of the same size. Furthermore, National banks show no significant contagion which evidences an important stability of this group of banks. Finally, the pure-panic hypothesis is rejected given that there is no significant contagion effect transmitted from one bank to the whole banking sector. Chapter 3 studies the determinants of the transmission of global economic crises across countries. An Event Study is used to determine the number of days that a global disturbance takes to impact a stock market. This constitutes our measure of the transmission effect. Moreover, we use Survival Analysis in order to identify macroeconomic determinants of the transmission of global crises across countries. Therefore, a set of macroeconomic variables are identified to have a significant impact on the probability of transmission of a global economic crisis. As a consequence, these variables can be used to decrease the probability of transmission and then preserve the stability of the economy. Chapter 4 investigates the determinants of the long-term interest rate parity in order to provide useful information to decrease the cost of international funding. In this way, the ability to face the consequences of economic crises can be enhanced by the access to cheaper funding for public policies. In addition, we test the uncovered interest rate parity (UIRP) hypothesis. By using a Gravity model, we provide a set of macroeconomic determinants of the long-term interest rate differential. Furthermore, we provide evidence that supports the UIRP which is an important contribution to the interest-rate literature given most of the empirical studies rejects this hypothesis.
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Rastapana, Songklod. "Three essays on financial crises". Thesis, University of Warwick, 2018. http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/107782/.

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This thesis analyses different aspects of financial crises with a focus on the role of pecuniary externalities. The topics explored in these essays are as follows: Chapter 1 provides background on issues of illiquidity and insolvency, and discusses how the two can interact. Chapter 2 studies pecuniary externalities in a `bank run' model where banks supply credit in the form of marketable securities. An aggregate liquidity shock, which triggers `fire sales' of such securities, can lead to insolvency when their value falls. So, in this type of model, a run on several banks can lead to insolvency driven pecuniary externalities. Chapter 3 explores three explanations of the U.S. subprime crisis; insolvency due to externalities, insolvency due to cheating, and illiquidity driven by panic. We argue that these narratives should be treated as complements (rather than as substitutes), with each playing an important role at different stages of the crisis. Chapter 4 studies the reversibility of shocks in a general equilibrium model of competitive markets with heterogeneous beliefs. I find that heterogeneous beliefs can amplify shocks; and, due to asymmetric adjustment of risky asset prices, they can also lead to systemic default when a group of optimistic agents exits the market.
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Atiq, Zeeshan. "Essays on financial liberalisation, financial crises and economic growth". Thesis, University of Manchester, 2014. https://www.research.manchester.ac.uk/portal/en/theses/essays-on-financial-liberalisation-financial-crises-and-economic-growth(8ebde51d-189b-40e9-a4e1-098b8880301e).html.

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This thesis investigates the impact of financial liberalisation policies on finance-growth relationship and financial crises. Analysis of recent trends and economic performance of financially developed and stable economies raises at least two very important questions that seem to have strong analytical connections. The first question is associated with the link between financial development and economic growth and the second question focuses the possible association between the policies of financial liberalisation and financial vulnerability. In this thesis we aim to shed light on some of the aspects that have gained so much attention from academics and policy makers during the last two decades. First we address whether excessive liberalisation has caused financial development to lose its effectiveness in generating economic growth. We employ a dynamic panel data analysis for 88 countries over the period of 1973 to 2005. Our index for the financial sector liberalisation covers seven aspects: credit controls and reserve requirements, interest rate controls, entry barriers, state ownership, policies on securities markets, banking regulations and restrictions on capital market. We use a comprehensive financial development indicator constructed through principal component analysis of five different indicators: bank private credit to GDP ratio, liquid liability to GDP ratio, deposit money bank assets to total bank assets ratio, deposit money bank assets to GDP ratio, and bank credit to bank deposit ratio. The results indicate that the positive effect of financial development on long-run growth continues to decline as the financial sector becomes more liberalised. Our results are robust to changes in the financial development indicators and the dis-aggregation of the financial liberalisation index. Second, we examine the possibility for an optimal sequence of financial sector reforms that may reduce an economy’s vulnerability to financial crises. We construct a distance measure from the countries that followed a more gradual approach and liberalised their capital account at a later stage. Our analysis shows that the experience of the countries that delayed or followed a very gradual approach for the liberalisation of their capital accounts have high level of implications to those countries that allowed for shock approach or liberalised their capital account before bringing reforms in other sectors.
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Uctug, Cagan. "Regulation Theory And Economic Crises: The Cases Of Greece And Turkey". Master's thesis, METU, 2012. http://etd.lib.metu.edu.tr/upload/12615177/index.pdf.

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This thesis analyzes the economic crises of recent years through the lens of the Regulation Theory. It focuses on the Greek Crisis of 2009 and the Turkish Financial Crises of 2000 and 2001. Furthermore it also analyzes the crisis in the United States to give a better grounding for the current crises. The thesis tries to answer the questions of whether or not Regulation Theory proves to be a sufficient tool for analyzing these crises and whether or not these fit the definition of crisis that the Regulation Theory puts forward. It is argued that Regulation Theory explains to a great extent both the causes and the structure of the crises.
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Samman, Amin Thomas. "Re-imagining the crises of global capital". Thesis, University of Birmingham, 2013. http://etheses.bham.ac.uk//id/eprint/3970/.

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This thesis explores the imaginary dimensions of economic crisis through a study of the interface between practices of historical representation and processes of social construction. Its core argument is that a sense of history cannot be disentangled from the phenomena that it strives to apprehend. As a result, there can be no fixed and objective relation between the evolution of global capitalism and its long history of crises. Instead, the very intelligibility of both ‘crisis’ and ‘history’ is produced through an iterated telescoping of time, whereby more or less distant events and episodes are grasped together in ways that lend meaning to those of the present. This argument is taken forward via an in-depth and quasi-historical analysis of the 2008 crisis. Focusing on how past crises figure within the pronouncements of international policymaking organisations and the commentary of the global financial press between 2007 and 2009, it develops a typology of different practices of historical representation and the various interpretive functions they are capable of performing. In so doing, it makes a theoretical contribution to the constructivist and cultural political economy literatures on the discursive negotiation of crisis.
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Jacobini, Maria Lucia de Paiva. "Imagens da crise: em busca de outras vozes - a crise econômica mundial e as crises permanentes do Brasil". Pontifícia Universidade Católica de São Paulo, 2013. https://tede2.pucsp.br/handle/handle/4527.

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Made available in DSpace on 2016-04-26T18:13:09Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Maria Lucia de Paiva Jacobini.pdf: 9245099 bytes, checksum: b2341c7f6222d91eab6edc0689cdb417 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013-06-24
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Our hypothesis is that the world today is going through several interrelated crises, especially those of the international financial crisis, the modern science paradigm and the permanent crisis that have always been a part of Latin American and, particularly, of Brazil. This research is divided in three parts: in the first, we work with Agamben s figures of the homo sacer, the sovereign, the state of exception as to create metaphors for the international financial turmoil and relate it to the crisis of Western modernity. In the second part, we show how the crisis was in Brazil and that, with its profane characteristics, created a solution to the economic problems different from the solutions proposed by international organizations. Finally, we emphasize the existence of a permanent crisis and of testimonies of its Muselmans, those not narrated by national media. The object of this thesis are the texts (written and pictorial) published by the newspaper Folha de S. Paulo, O Estado de S. Paulo and by magazines Carta Capital and Veja, between the years 2008 and 2012, on the financial and permanent crises. Via the relationship between these stories and theoretical discussion, our goal is to question how the selected newspapers and magazines address our (s) crisis (es) and how they emphasize economic aspects despite the others that distinguish the permanent state of exception. In order to do that, we use photography thinkers such as Kossoy, Barthes, Flusser, Sontag and Belting to approach the use of the image by the media and its power in memory formation about crises, accompanied by Sousa Santos, Laplantine & Nouss, Martín-Barbero, Viveiros de Castro and Mignolo that study the connection between communication and Latin American culture and its internal (profane) mechanisms that face the uniformity widespread by modern science. Lotman s thoughts on memory, in a dialogue with Agamben s notion of testimony, will help to decipher stories told in the news and the need for disclosure of unpublished voices - those of the permanent local crises. Therefore, we believe that there is a complexity in the Latin American context that can accept both Agamben s negativity and the profane possibilities envisioned by Viveiros de Castro. Besides, a reflection on how the media deal with the crises that exist in Brazil and around the world is significant for our understanding of the intentions intrinsic to the choice of news, their images and to their ability to make space for other narratives about the different local stories
Partimos da hipótese de que o mundo hoje passa por várias crises interrelacionadas, com destaque para a financeira internacional, a do paradigma da ciência moderna ocidental e as crises permanentes que atingem a América Latina e, particularmente, o Brasil. Esta pesquisa está dividida em três eixos: no primeiro, trabalhamos com as figuras do homo sacer, do soberano, do estado de exceção propostas por Agamben para criar metáforas para a turbulência financeira internacional e relacioná-la com a crise da modernidade ocidental. No segundo eixo, apresentamos como se deu o cenário de crise no Brasil que, com suas características profanatórias, criou uma solução para os problemas econômicos diferente das receitas determinadas pelos organismos internacionais. Por último, enfatizamos a existência de crises permanentes e de testemunhos dos seus muçulmanos, não narrados pelos meios de comunicação nacionais. O objeto deste trabalho são os textos (escritos e imagéticos) publicados pelos jornais Folha de S. Paulo, O Estado de S. Paulo e pelas revistas Carta Capital e Veja, entre os anos de 2008 e 2012, sobre as crises financeira e permanentes. Através da relação entre essas notícias e a discussão teórica, nosso objetivo é questionar como os jornais e revistas selecionados realmente abordam a(s) nossa(s) crise(s) e como enfatizam seus aspectos econômicos em detrimento de outros que caracterizam o estado de exceção permanente. Para tanto, serão utilizados pensadores da fotografia como Kossoy, Barthes, Flusser, Sontag e Belting para abordarmos o uso da imagem pelos meios de comunicação e seu poder na formação da memória das crises; acompanhados por Sousa Santos, Laplantine & Nouss, Martín-Barbero, Viveiros de Castro e Mignolo que estudam a relação entre comunicação e cultura latinoamericana e seus mecanismos internos (profanatórios) que enfrentam a uniformidade difundida pela ciência moderna. O pensamento de Lotman sobre memória, em um diálogo com a noção de testemunho de Agamben, irá ajudar a decifrar as histórias contadas nas notícias e a necessidade de divulgação das vozes não publicadas as das crises permanentes locais. Portanto, entendemos que há uma complexidade do contexto latino-americano que comporta tanto a negatividade de Agamben quanto as possibilidades profanatórias envisionadas por Viveiros de Castro. Além disso, uma reflexão sobre como os meios de comunicação abordam as crises que existem no Brasil e no mundo é significativa para a compreensão das intenções intrínsecas à escolha das notícias e suas imagens e da sua capacidade de abrir espaço para outras narrativas sobre as diferentes histórias locais
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Rommerskirchen, Charlotte Sophie. "Fiscal policy coordination in times of economic and financial crises". Thesis, University of Edinburgh, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/1842/9856.

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This thesis examines fiscal policy coordination in the EU during the Great Recession (2008-2010). For the first time since the Maastricht Treaty heralded the coordination of macroeconomic policies among EU Member States, public finances were collectively focused on stimulus policies. In sharp contrast to the preceding decade of consolidation and constraint, fiscal policy coordination during the Great Recession presents a novelty: a study in fiscal expansion. Drawing on Mancur Olson’s Logic of Collective Action, this thesis uses a mixed-methods approach that combines the insights from over 40 in-depth interviews and econometric analyses. The central argument of this thesis is that the fiscal crisis responses of EU Member States were not coordinated. Yet despite this lack of coordination, free-riding was kept at bay. First, the overarching consensus on the need for counter-cyclical fiscal policies prevented growth free-riding (i.e. a situation of limited domestic stimulus and free-riding on other countries’ expansive fiscal policies). Second, discipline imposed by financial market participants contributed to policy-makers’ awareness of their limited room for fiscal manoeuvre, which meant that stability free-riding (i.e. stimulus policies that exceeded a country’s fiscal space) did not occur. The first finding suggests the importance of shared policy ideas in achieving collective action; the second points to the role of financial markets in constraining public finances. Ultimately both, shared policy ideas and market discipline, can function as a substitute for strong institutional commitment to shape group oriented behaviour.
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Jacinto, Ricardo Borges. "(Re)Financing in a capital intensive industry during economic crises". Master's thesis, NSBE - UNL, 2009. http://hdl.handle.net/10362/9641.

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A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics
This case provides insight regarding how the survival of a company exercising its economic activity on a capital intensive industry, namely Cimpor – Cimentos de Portugal, SGPS, S.A., can be more affected during a financial/economic crisis than companies operating in non transformation sectors. Company performance positively correlated with the market and, the need for large amounts of debt capital required for survival, were key factors whenever a recession were in order. I will explore the factual evidence of such events, providing in the end a space for reflection through a set of questions concerning the approached subjects.
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Chan, Chi-ming Victor. "Domestic institutions and Japan's foreign economic policy the Japanese economic assistance to Southeast Asia, 1997-1999 /". Hong Kong : University of Hong Kong, 2001. http://sunzi.lib.hku.hk/hkuto/record.jsp?B23242139.

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Cotovio, Marlene Jorge de Abreu. "A Globalização e a Crise de 2007". Master's thesis, Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão, 2010. http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/2934.

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Mestrado em Contabilidade, Fiscalidade e Finanças Empresariais
O objectivo deste trabalho é estudar o fenómeno de globalização e a sua relação íntima com as crises que se geram. Neste caso específico, pretende-se estudar a evolução do fenómeno, que é a globalização e a sua relação intrínseca com a crise global mais recente (2007). A metodologia empregue integra consultas de artigos científicos, livros, jornais, revistas, etc, que permitam efectuar o estudo referido. A ausência de regulação e supervisão, por parte de entidades supranacionais e reguladoras potenciou, de forma decisiva, a rápida evolução da crise. Por fim, a preocupação necessária com o meio ambiente, num contexto de crise não é devidamente relevada, devido às pressões por parte dos diversos países (um acordo global é difícil de alcançar). Porém, um dos aspectos mais importantes a sublinhar perante a crise, é o facto de crises financeiras graves não serem arcaicas e não se encontrarem só na história passada. Esta situação reforça a necessidade de existência de uma regulação e supervisão assertiva, que acompanhe as evoluções dos mercados de forma a minimizar as probabilidades de práticas engenharia e criatividade financeira nefastas, protegendo a humanidade de crises semelhantes, no futuro. Finalmente importa acrescentar que a duração, profundidade e implicações desta crise ainda não são passíveis de comentar, pelo simples facto de ainda não se ter saído da mesma.
The objective of this work is the study of the phenomena of globalization and its intimate relation with the crisis which are generated. In this specific case, the evolution of the phenomena of globalization and its inherent relation with the most recent global crisis will be studied (2007). The methodology used includes consultation of scientific articles, books, newspapers, magazines, etc, which help research the above-mentioned topic. The lack of regulation and supervision by supranational and regulating entities was crucial to give rise to the rapid evolution of the crisis. Finally, the necessary concern with the environment, in a context of crisis is not focused enough due to pressure from various countries (it's difficult to reach a global compromise). However, one of the most important aspects to underline about the crisis is the fact that financial crisis are not archaic and they did not happen only in the past. This situation reinforces the need of regulation and assertive supervision which follow the evolution of the markets in order to minimize the chances of baleful experiences of financial engineering and creativity, and in order to protect the humanity from similar crisis in the future. Finally, one should add that the duration, depth and implications of this crisis cannot be commented, because it hasn't been solved yet.
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Ochiai, Hiroshi. "Essays on aggregate dynamics : externalities, liquidity and financial crises". Thesis, University of Nottingham, 2012. http://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/12525/.

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In the second chapter, we consider a mechanism of unstable fluctuations of aggregate investments by means of a global game approach. For this purpose, we extended a static global game to a dynamic one and paid attention to the effect of past aggregate investments on current profitability. Once this effect of aggregate investments between periods is taken into account, we can show that firms’ equilibrium strategies of investments become highly volatile over time. Moreover, long persistence of high or low economic activity can be explained by this model as well. The third chapter examines the effect of firms’ funding liquidity on macroeconomic dynamics and the role of liquidity markets. Here, we regard liquidity as firms’ accumulated net worth and introduce heterogeneity between firms with regard to their productivities and accumulation of their net worth. From our analysis, we show that under existence of externality between probabilities of liquidity shocks 1) the economy without liquidity markets is highly volatile. 2) Liquidity markets insulate the economy from liquidity shocks. 3) During an unstable economic environment, the economic activity can sharply drop in the existence of liquidity markets. The fourth chapter aims at showing risk shifting behaviour of financial intermediaries in the context of an economic growth model to analyze financial crises. In the low capitalized economy in which a rate of return on safe assets is high and households’ assets are scarce, investing in corporate sectors is more profitable than that of risky assets because the option value from investing in risky assets is low. However, as the economy grows, the rate of return on safe assets is decreasing whereas individual assets are increasing. In this situation, the option values of risky assets are increasing, which gives banks incentive to invest in risky assets leading some of the banks to be insolvent.
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21

Castro, Fernandez Juan Carlos. "Essays on financial crises, big recessions and slow recoveries". Thesis, University of Warwick, 2017. http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/106445/.

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In this thesis I presented two essays motivated by the observation that financial crises tend to be accompanied by deeper recessions and slower recoveries, partly due to debt burden (e.g. Reinhart & Rogoff, 2009; Hong and Tornell, 2005; Jordà, et al., 2013). In the first essay I evaluate this claim against the contrasting view that magnitude and persistence of recessions is rather the consequence of bigger and more persistent shocks (Stock & Watson, 2012). To do so, I compute recovery and recession paths through the estimation of impulse responses by local projections methods (Jordà, 2005). I found that the occurrence of financial crises is associated with more severe recessions only if the recession itself is big enough. But this effect disappears when the output loss caused by the recession is below the historical average. More importantly, neither the magnitude of the loss, nor the occurrence of financial crises, nor debt accumulation are associated with sluggish output growth during recoveries. It has also being suggested that expectations prior to the crisis help to determine the magnitude and length of recessions following financial crises (Chauvet and Guo, 2003; Cerra and Saxena, 2008). This and the role of pre-crisis dynamics is not properly reflected in standard DSGE models. In the second essay I account for the effect of pre- crisis dynamics and evaluate whether financial crises are different. To do so, I introduce optimism (in the form of unrealised news about capital quality) in an otherwise standard DSGE model with financial frictions. Under this framework, optimism generates investment–debt / boom-bust cycles accompanied by long recessions. I found that within this framework cycles associated with financial and technology news shocks are different regarding the responses of asset prices and banks’ net worth. Real variables respond similarly to unjustified financial or technological optimism.
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22

Choi, Jungug Œd 1965. "Economic crisis, elite cooperation, and democratic stability : Asia in the late 1990s /". Full text (PDF) from UMI/Dissertation Abstracts International, 2001. http://wwwlib.umi.com/cr/utexas/fullcit?p3008303.

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23

Ozbek, Pelin. "Effects Of Economic Crises After 1990 On The Turkish Insurance Sector". Master's thesis, METU, 2010. http://etd.lib.metu.edu.tr/upload/12612617/index.pdf.

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In this thesis, effects of economic crises after 1990 on the Turkish insurance sector are analyzed with special emphasis on 1994, 2001 and 2008 crises. In the first step, EGARCH model is used to measure the exchange rate uncertainty. Then, a time series model for the aggregate analysis and a panel data model for the disaggregate analysis which both include the estimated exchange rate uncertainty together with other macroeconomic and firm specific variables are set up. The results indicate that aggregate and disaggregate analyses suggest different variables in explaining the premium production which is used as a proxy for the performance of the insurance sector. Nevertheless, the common conclusion was that the growth of premium production decelerates during the crisis periods at a varying degree depending on the year of crisis. 2001 crisis is found to be the crisis which has the most detrimental impact on the Turkish insurance sector. On the other hand, effects of the 2008 crisis are found to be relatively limited.
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24

Jackson, Jessie Hyman. "Strategies Church Financial Leaders Use for Financial Sustainability during Economic Crises". Thesis, Walden University, 2018. http://pqdtopen.proquest.com/#viewpdf?dispub=13422045.

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Church financial leaders were affected by the economic crisis after the 2008 recession. In a 2009 group study conducted nationwide with church financial leaders, 57% stated that the economy had a negative effect on their church budgets. The purpose of this qualitative multiple case study was to explore successful strategies that some church financial leaders used to ensure financial sustainability during economic crises. Resource dependence theory was the conceptual framework. Data were collected from 6 church financial leaders at 4 churches in the northeastern region in the United States; church financial leaders were selected through purposeful sampling to participate in semistructured interviews. Data were also collected from church documents, such as financial records and budget statements. These data were analyzed to identify emerging themes using Yin’s 5-phase process: compiling, disassembling, reassembling (and arraying), interpreting, and concluding. The 3 themes that emerged from the data analysis were (a) provide strategies to acquire external resources, (b) specify plans to establish internal strategic factors, and (c) provide strategies to improve financial and strategic management. Findings and recommendations of the study could contribute to positive social change by providing church financial leaders with successful strategies to ensure financial sustainability during economic crises and by increasing church revenue and improving social programs, which help improve the needs of staff, members, and people in the community.

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Antunes, Jadir. "Da possibilidade a realidade : o desenvolvimento dialetico das crises em O Capital de Karl Marx". [s.n.], 2005. http://repositorio.unicamp.br/jspui/handle/REPOSIP/280375.

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Orientador: Hector Benoit
Tese (doutorado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Instituto de Filosofia e Ciencias Humanas
Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-04T21:30:19Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Antunes_Jadir_D.pdf: 53294453 bytes, checksum: b86f48c04ba668f3a11f5d0e1a2d6122 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2005
Resumo: o conceito de crise é inseparável do conceito de capital e o desenvolvimento deste último desenvolve simultaneamenteo conceito do primeiro.Nosso trabalho pretende mostrar como o conceito de crise do capital pode ser encontrado em O Capital de Marx simultaneamente ao conceito de capital. É possível encontrar uma teoria coerente de Marx sobre as crises em O Capital, uma teoria dialética que parta da análise das possibilidades mais gerais e abstratas da crise até sua conversão em realidade, acompanhando o processo de exposição global do conceito de capital no conjunto dos três livros que compõem esta obra. Este movimento que vai da possibilidade formal e abstrata da crise até sua realidade concreta é o mesmo movimento que inicia com a análise da mercadoria e do dinheiro no Livro Primeiro até a análise das categorias mais determinadase concretas como lucro e taxa de lucro do Livro Terceiro
Abstract: The concept of crisis is inseparable from the concept of capital and the development of the latter develops simultaneously the concept of the first. Our work purports to show how the concept of crisis of capital can be viewed simultaneously with the concept of capital in Marx's The Capital. It is possible to find a coherent theory in Marx about the crises in The Capital, a dialectical theory beginning fromthe analysis of the more abstract and general possibilities of crisis up to its convertion into reality, following the process of global exposition of the concept of capital in the whole of the three books of that work. The movement which comes from the formal and abstract possibility of crisis up to its concrete reality is the same movement which begins with both the commodities and the money analysis in the First Book and ends with the analysis of the more determined and concrete categories like profit and profit rate in the Third Book
Doutorado
Doutor em Filosofia
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26

Andreas, Repeta, i Palm Carl. "Capital flows during times of crises : A study of 21st century economic crises and their impact on FDI-flows". Thesis, Uppsala universitet, Företagsekonomiska institutionen, 2021. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-434216.

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Foreign direct investment has been sharply affected by the global SARS-CoV-19 pandemic, as quarantine measures have decimated global trade, aviation and domestic economies through lockdowns which have wreaked havoc on markets. Macroeconomic indicators including GDP growth rates, unemployment, business confidence, consumer confidence, retail sales and inflation have all been negatively affected due to the simultaneous supply & demand shock caused by the pandemic. Economic crises are a regularly occurring feature, with a degree of cyclicality determining their emergence. The uniqueness of crises, in their appearance and dissipation, stems from a large variance in relevant macroeconomic, fundamental and societal factors giving rise to the crisis in the first place, with the uniqueness being bound and pertinent to a selected period of time in history under which they occurred. In this thesis we explored the impact of the two most significant economic crises of the 21st century, the Great Recession and the ongoing SARS-CoV-19 pandemic and their impact on capital flows, specifically on FDI-flows in two developed markets and two emerging markets. Our findings suggest that FDI-flows display a high synchronicity with stages of economic cycles, and tend to decrease during economic recessions and increase during economic expansions.
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Chan, Chi-ming Victor, i 陳志明. "Domestic institutions and Japan's foreign economic policy: the Japanese economic assistance to Southeast Asia, 1997-1999". Thesis, The University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong), 2001. http://hub.hku.hk/bib/B31223941.

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Jannsen, Nils [Verfasser]. "Severe Economic Crises and the Business Cycle - An Empirical Analysis / Nils Jannsen". Kiel : Universitätsbibliothek Kiel, 2012. http://d-nb.info/1023681315/34.

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Shatska, Zorina, i Y. Kovalchuk. "Changes in the global paradigm in the context of global economic crises". Thesis, Київський національний університет технологій та дизайну, 2020. https://er.knutd.edu.ua/handle/123456789/15685.

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Peers, Justin. "A Systematic Assessment of Socio-Economic Impacts of Prolonged Episodic Volcano Crises". Digital Commons @ East Tennessee State University, 2019. https://dc.etsu.edu/etd/3580.

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Uncertainty surrounding volcanic activity can lead to socio-economic crises with or without an eruption as demonstrated by the post-1978 response to unrest of Long Valley Caldera (LVC), CA. Extensive research in physical sciences provides a foundation on which to assess direct impacts of hazards, but fewer resources have been dedicated towards understanding human responses to volcanic risk. To evaluate natural hazard risk issues at LVC, a multi-hazard, mail-based, household survey was conducted to compare perceptions of volcanic, seismic, and wildfire hazards. Impacts of volcanic activity on housing prices and businesses were examined at the county-level for three volcanoes with a “very high” threat designation from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS); LVC, (caldera system), Mount St. Helens, WA (stratovolcano), and Kīlauea, HI (shield volcano). A negative relationship was found between volcanic risk perception and preparedness. Additionally, the perception that housing prices declined after volcano alerts was confirmed by econometric modeling.
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31

Martinez, Regina. "Essays on Financial Crises and Banking| International, Domestic and Systemic Approach". Thesis, The George Washington University, 2015. http://pqdtopen.proquest.com/#viewpdf?dispub=3720089.

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Most of the largest economic crises in recent history have been bank related. This dissertation contributes to improve our understanding of the causes and implications of financial crises because it approaches the study from a holistic perspective. It covers international, domestic, and systemic aspects that are necessary to understand the challenges imposed by financial liberalization, globalization, technological change, and interconnectivity. Chapter 1 provides the international perspective by examining the effect of global banking flows on credit booms; chapter 2 gives the domestic perspective by estimating the impact of financial crises on a country's long-run output growth; and chapter 3 zooms in further to get to the banking system level in order to study the propagation of shocks in a banking network endogenously generated by banks' profit maximizing decisions. Therefore, this dissertation accounts for the new challenges derived from the process of financial globalization and complex interconnections, and provides new venues for future analyses in this important research area.

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32

Gandré, Pauline. "Three Essays on the Role of Expectations During the Recent Economic Turmoil". Thesis, Lyon, 2016. http://www.theses.fr/2016LYSEN060.

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Face à un constat de déconnexion entre la valorisation de trois types d’actifs (deux actifs financiers et un actif immobilier) et les fondamentaux économiques dans la période récente, marquée par l’occurrence de crises économiques et financières sévères, cette thèse vise à mettre en évidence le rôle des anticipations des agents économiques.Premièrement, cette thèse souligne que le rôle des anticipations dans la récente crise de dette en zone euro est lié à l’existence de complémentarités stratégiques dans les décisions des agents économiques. Dans cette perspective, l’apport de cette thèse est de s’intéresser à un fait central et pourtant passé relativement inaperçu : la hausse de la part de dette détenue par les résidents dans les économies les plus fragiles de la zone euro à partir de la fin 2008. Nous montrons que si les chocs d’endettement public ont bien un effet positifs ur le biais domestique dans la détention de dette publique, les chocs d’anticipations pessimistes peuvent également jouer un rôle significatif pour expliquer les variations du biais domestique. Deuxièmement, cette thèse montre que la volatilité excessive du prix de certains actifs relativement aux fondamentaux peut être expliquée dans le cadre de modèles standards dès lors que l’on relâche l’hypothèse d’anticipations rationnelles et que l’on suppose que les agents estiment les paramètres des lois gouvernant la dynamique des fondamentaux, à la façon d’économètres. Sous cette hypothèse, un modèle de prix d’actifs standard permet d’expliquer l’épisode de forte valorisation du prix des actions américaines au début des années 2000, suivi par un fort effondrement des cours à partir de 2008 et jusqu’à mi-2009.Enfin, nous montrons que modéliser un processus d’apprentissage bayésien sur le prix des actifs immobiliers dans le cadre d’un modèle DSGE avec des frictions de crédit permet d’expliquer simultanément la forte volatilité des prix immobiliers - qui a joué un rôle central dans la crise des subprimes - et celle de variables caractérisant le cycle des affaires aux Etats-Unis sur la période 1985-2015
In view of the disconnect between the pricing of three types of assets (two types of financial assets and real-estate assets) and economic fundamentals in the recent period ofsevere economic and financial crises, this thesis aims at highlighting the role of economicagents’ expectations.First, this thesis emphasizes that the role of expectations in the recent Eurozonesovereign debt crisis relates to strategic complementarities in agents’ decisions. In thisrespect, this thesis focuses on one major but mostly unnoticed fact: the share of governmentdebt held by the resident sector increased beginning at the end of 2008 in the mostfragile economies of the zone. We show that – whereas public debt shocks positively affectthe home bias in sovereign debt – pessimistic expectation shocks can also significantlyexplain variations in home bias.Second, this thesis shows that excess volatility in stock and in house prices relativeto fundamentals can be accounted for by standard models when the rational expectationshypothesis is relaxed and when agents are assumed to estimate the parameters of the lawsof motion driving the dynamics of economic fundamentals – that is, as econometricians.Under this assumption, a standard asset pricing model can explain the persistently highvaluation in US stock prices in the early 2000s followed by their dramatic bust by 2009.Finally, we show that modelling Bayesian learning regarding house prices in the contextof a DSGE model with credit frictions allows us to simultaneously replicate the dramaticvolatility in house prices - which played a crucial role in the subprime crisis - and in businesscycle variables over the 1985-2015 period
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Hvizdos, Meghan Danielle. "The great American debate a constructionist approach on the media's coverage of government bailouts /". Morgantown, W. Va. : [West Virginia University Libraries], 2010. http://hdl.handle.net/10450/11046.

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Thesis (M.A.)--West Virginia University, 2010.
Title from document title page. Document formatted into pages; contains vi, 69 p. : ill. (some col.). Includes abstract. Includes bibliographical references (p. 68-69).
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34

Rando, Imira Taira. "O Brasil e a crise financeira : políticas econômicas (2008-2014) /". Araraquara, 2018. http://hdl.handle.net/11449/180902.

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Orientador: Eduardo Strachman
Banca: Guilherme Santos Mello
Banca: André Luiz Correa
Resumo: Durante a crise financeira internacional de 2008, o governo federal brasileiro fez uso de políticas para manutenção da atividade econômica através de instrumentos de crédito dos bancos públicos, assim como a adoção de políticas fiscais e monetárias expansivas. A partir do uso de tais instrumentos, o Brasil apresentou resultados considerados satisfatórios na economia dentro do período da crise nos anos 2008 e 2009. Porém, no ano de 2010 o governo iniciou uma mudança no rumo da política econômica. A partir disso é observado um quadro de piora no desempenho da economia brasileira, ao passo que outros países apresentavam sinais de melhoras em suas economias. Este trabalho tem como objetivo geral compreender por que no Brasil se verificou um aprofundamento da crise financeira internacional de 2008 no período posterior, isto é, entre os anos de 2010 e 2014, e quais fatores contribuíram para isso. A hipótese é que o governo brasileiro reorientou a política econômica a partir de 2010 de modo errôneo, priorizando a austeridade fiscal, o que colaborou para o agravamento da crise no país.
Abstract: During the international financial crisis of 2008, the Brazilian federal government used policies for maintaining economic activity through public bank credit instruments, as well as adopted expansive fiscal and monetary policies. As a result Brazil presented satisfactory economic results during the crisis of 2008 and 2009. However, in 2010 the government initiated a change of path with the economic policy. That resulted in a worsening performance of the Brazilian economy contrary to the economic improvement in other countries. This dissertation aims to understand the reason for Brazil's delayed deepening in the 2008 international financial crisis, between 2010 and 2014, and to find what factors contributed to this. The hypothesis is that the Brazilian government erroneously changed the perspective of economic policy as of 2010 prioritizing fiscal austerity and in turn aggravating the national crisis.
Mestre
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35

O'Keeffe, Mícheál. "Essays on the political economy of financial crises : causes, containment and resolution". Thesis, London School of Economics and Political Science (University of London), 2014. http://etheses.lse.ac.uk/3097/.

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What role does politics play in financial crises and how does this affect economic outcomes? This thesis employs a political economy framework to examine the effect politics has on the causes, containment, and resolution of financial crises. The first paper examines the development of Irish financial regulation and supervision in the context of the politics of financial services policy. It argues that domestic politics prior to the crisis in Ireland played a significant contributing role in fostering a permissive banking environment which allowed the build up of financial imbalances. The second paper, with Christopher Gandrud, aims to understand why policymakers may end up choosing sub-optimal financial crisis containment strategies when taking decisions under uncertainty. We develop a signalling model of financial crisis management to enhance our understanding of the interactions between bureaucrats and decision-makers and to show how asymmetries of information can have significant implications for policy choice. The third paper, with Alessio Terzi, uses cross-country econometric evidence to examine the impact that political and party systems have on the fiscal cost of financial sector intervention. The results of our empirical analysis suggest that there is a systematic relationship between political economy factors and the fiscal cost of financial sector intervention in banking crises. We find that governments in presidential systems are associated with lower fiscal costs when managing banking crises. Looking further at crisis containment strategies, we show that these governments are are less likely to employ costly bank guarantees and bank recapitalisations which expose the state to significant contingent and direct fiscal liabilities, and are more likely to impose losses on depositors. The fourth paper analyses reform of the framework for crises management in the EU from a political economy perspective, following the 2007 financial and subsequent sovereign debt crisis. It explains how the limits of coordination and unprecedented public support led to the proposal for the establishment of a harmonised framework for bank resolution across the EU. However, the distributional consequences of financial sector support and the establishment of the Single Supervisory Mechanism led to deeper integration for euro area Member States and agreement on the Single Resolution Mechanism. It analyses in detail the negotiations on the financing structure for future resolution, decision-making procedures and crisis management tools and demonstrates how the power of certain Member States and distributive conflict with regard to legacy assets shaped the new architecture. It also highlights the important role the European Parliament played in the negotiations. This thesis makes a number of substantive contributions to political economy. The new theoretical and empirical findings will help foster a better understanding as to how governments may react to future financial crises and show what factors lead to and shape reform. It also has a number of policy implications. It stresses the need for a robust regulatory and supervisory architecture which creates the appropriate incentives for bureaucrats to provide timely and accurate information to decision-makers. It also highlights the need for a more intrusive approach to supervision.
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36

Addo, Peter Martey. "Modern approaches for nonlinear data analysis of economic and financial time series". Thesis, Paris 1, 2014. http://www.theses.fr/2014PA010033/document.

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L’axe principal de la thèse est centré sur des approches non-linéaires modernes d’analyse des données économiques et financières, avec une attention particulière sur les cycles économiques et les crises financières. Un consensus dans la littérature statistique et financière s’est établie autour du fait que les variables économiques ont un comportement non-linéaire au cours des différentes phases du cycle économique. En tant que tel, les approches/modèles non-linéaires sont requis pour saisir les caractéristiques du mécanisme de génération des données intrinsèquement asymétriques, que les modèles linéaires sont incapables de reproduire.À cet égard, la thèse propose une nouvelle approche interdisciplinaire et ouverte à l’analyse des systèmes économiques et financiers. La thèse présente des approches robustes aux valeurs extrêmes et à la non-stationnarité, applicables à la fois pour des petits et de grands échantillons, aussi bien pour des séries temporelles économiques que financières. La thèse fournit des procédures dites étape par étape dans l’analyse des indicateurs économiques et financiers en intégrant des concepts basés sur la méthode de substitution de données, des ondelettes, espace incorporation de phase, la m´méthode retard vecteur variance (DVV) et des récurrences parcelles. La thèse met aussi en avant des méthodes transparentes d’identification, de datation des points de retournement et de l´évaluation des impacts des crises économiques et financières. En particulier, la thèse fournit également une procédure pour anticiper les crises futures et ses conséquences.L’étude montre que l’intégration de ces techniques dans l’apprentissage de la structure et des interactions au sein et entre les variables économiques et financières sera très utile dans l’élaboration de politiques de crises, car elle facilite le choix des méthodes de traitement appropriées, suggérées par les données.En outre, une nouvelle procédure pour tester la linéarité et la racine unitaire dans un cadre non-linéaire est proposé par l’introduction d’un nouveau modèle – le modèle MT-STAR – qui a des propriétés similaires au modèle ESTAR mais réduit les effets des problèmes d’identification et peut aussi représenter l’asymétrie dans le mécanisme d’ajustement vers l’équilibre. Les distributions asymptotiques du test de racine unitaire proposées sont non-standards et sont calculées. La puissance du test est évaluée par simulation et quelques illustrations empiriques sur les taux de change réel montrent son efficacité. Enfin, la thèse développe des modèles multi-variés Self-Exciting Threshold Autoregressive avec des variables exogènes (MSETARX) et présente une méthode d’estimation paramétrique. La modélisation des modèles MSETARX et des problèmes engendrés par son estimation sont brièvement examinés
This thesis centers on introducing modern non-linear approaches for data analysis in economics and finance with special attention on business cycles and financial crisis. It is now well stated in the statistical and economic literature that major economic variables display non-linear behaviour over the different phases of the business cycle. As such, nonlinear approaches/models are required to capture the features of the data generating mechanism of inherently asymmetric realizations, since linear models are incapable of generating such behavior.In this respect, the thesis provides an interdisciplinary and open-minded approach to analyzing economic and financial systems in a novel way. The thesis presents approaches that are robust to extreme values, non-stationarity, applicable to both short and long data length, transparent and adaptive to any financial/economic time series. The thesis provides step-by-step procedures in analyzing economic/financial indicators by incorporating concepts based on surrogate data method, wavelets, phase space embedding, ’delay vector variance’ (DVV) method and recurrence plots. The thesis also centers on transparent ways of identifying, dating turning points, evaluating impact of economic and financial crisis. In particular, the thesis also provides a procedure on how to anticipate future crisis and the possible impact of such crisis. The thesis shows that the incorporation of these techniques in learning the structure and interactions within and between economic and financial variables will be very useful in policy-making, since it facilitates the selection of appropriate processing methods, suggested by the data itself.In addition, a novel procedure to test for linearity and unit root in a nonlinear framework is proposed by introducing a new model – the MT-STAR model – which has similar properties of the ESTAR model but reduces the effects of the identification problem and can also account for asymmetry in the adjustment mechanism towards equilibrium. The asymptotic distributions of the proposed unit root test is non-standard and is derived.The power of the test is evaluated through a simulation study and some empirical illustrations on real exchange rates show its accuracy. Finally, the thesis defines a multivariate Self–Exciting Threshold Autoregressive with eXogenous input (MSETARX) models and present an estimation procedure for the parameters. The modeling procedure for the MSETARX models and problems of estimation are briefly considered
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Bellak, Christian, i Markus Leibrecht. "The effect of economic crises on the emergence of investor-state arbitration cases". WU Vienna University of Economics and Business, 2019. http://epub.wu.ac.at/6922/1/wp284_corr.pdf.

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The number of investor-state arbitration disputes has been on the rise since the mid 1990s. Their determinants are still not fully understood. This study empirically examines the effects of economic crises on investor-state arbitration claims, based on international investment agreements (IIAs). We use a unique dataset containing 961 investor-state arbitration claims covering 132 host (defendant) and 75 home (claimant) countries over the 1986-2017 period. We find that episodes of economic crises are positively and significantly associated with the number of investor-state arbitration cases and we uncover evidence that the type of economic crisis matters. In addition, the positive impact of economic crises on arbitration cases is inversely related to the rule of law in a host country. These results are consistent with the view that governments are prioritizing policy actions aiming at mitigating the negative impact of economic crises over compliance with their obligations in IIAs. From a policy perspective, our results suggest that besides strengthening the rule of law domestically, the IIA system should be reformed with a focus on avoiding a vicious circle, thus shortening the recovery period after economic crises.
Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Series
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38

Chan, Siu-fun Cynthia. "Asian crisis Indonesia and Hong Kong /". Click to view the E-thesis via HKUTO, 1999. http://sunzi.lib.hku.hk/hkuto/record/B31951855.

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39

Mathonnat, Clément. "Développement financier et crises bancaires : une analyse de l’effet exercé par la taille et l’activité des intermédiaires financiers sur l’origine et les conséquences des crises bancaires". Thesis, Université Clermont Auvergne‎ (2017-2020), 2017. http://www.theses.fr/2017CLFAD016/document.

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Depuis le début des années 1980, on observe une augmentation importante du nombre de crises bancaires, combinée en parallèle à un essor important des systèmes financiers. La crise des subprimes de 2007-2008, par sa durée et son intensité récessive sans précédent depuis la Grande Dépression des années 1930, a relancé le débat sur le rôle joué par le développement financier dans l’accroissement de l’instabilité financière et l’amplification des chocs économiques. Or, bien qu’un grand nombre d’études soulignent que le fonctionnement du secteur bancaire constitue un facteur essentiel pour comprendre les dynamiques associées à la survenue ainsi qu’aux conséquences des crises bancaires, aucune analyse économétrique n’a jusqu’à présent évalué précisément l’effet qu’exerce le développement financier, considéré sous l’angle de la taille et de l’activité des intermédiaires financiers, sur l’origine et l’amplification des conséquences des crises bancaires. Il s’agit précisément de l’objectif de cette thèse. Pour cela, nous proposons dans le chapitre I de replacer notre étude dans une perspective de long terme au travers d’une histoire des crises financières du XVIIe siècle jusqu’à nos jours. Puis, sur la base d’un échantillon couvrant les principales crises bancaires qui se sont produites dans les pays développés et en développement durant les quarante dernières années, cette thèse analyse l’effet qu’exerce le développement financier sur les crises bancaires selon quatre dimensions. Nous nous intéressons au rôle que joue le développement financier sur la probabilité d’occurrence (chapitre II), l’amplification de la durée et du coût pour l’économie réelle (chapitre III), ainsi que l’impact redistributif (chapitre IV) des crises bancaires. Les résultats de ces trois chapitres vont dans le même sens et mettent en évidence que des systèmes financiers plus développés sont associés à des crises bancaires caractérisées par une probabilité d’occurrence, une durée, une contraction de la production et une hausse des inégalités de revenus significativement plus importantes. Notre travail apporte donc un éclairage précis et univoque quant au rôle joué par le développement financier tant au niveau des causes que des conséquences des crises bancaires. Dans un environnement international encore marqué par l’impact récessif de la crise des subprimes, la conclusion générale de la thèse soutient l’idée selon laquelle la promotion de la stabilité financière, ainsi que de la capacité de résilience des économies aux chocs passent par la mise en œuvre de la part des gouvernements de mesures visant à limiter de façon plus contraignante la taille et l’activité du secteur bancaire
Since the beginning of the eighties, there is a significant increase in the number of banking crises at a worldwide level, in parallel with a surge in financial system development. The subprimes crisis, because of its recessive length and intensity without equivalent since the Great Depression of the thirties, has re-launched the debate on the role played by financial development in the amplification of both financial instability and economic shocks. Despite a large number of studies stressing that banking sector is a key factor to understand the outbreak and consequences of banking crises, no econometric analysis as so far assessed precisely the effect of financial development, viewed from the standpoint of both size and activity of financial intermediaries, on the occurrence and consequences of banking crises. It is precisely the goal of this thesis. In chapter I, we put our analysis into a long term perspective by proposing a history of financial crises from the 17th century until now. Then, based on a sample covering the main banking crises that happened in developing and developed countries over the last forty years, the thesis analyzes the effects of financial development on banking crises through four dimensions. We investigate the role played by financial development in the occurrence (chapter II), the duration and the cost for the real economy (chapter III) and also the redistributive impact (chapter IV) of banking crises. The results of these three chapters converge and highlight that more developed financial systems are associated with banking crises that are more numerous, last longer, are more costly for the real economy and lead to a larger surge in economic inequalities. Our work thus brings an insightful analysis of the effect of financial development on the causes and consequences of banking crises. In an international environment still facing the recessive impact of the subprimes crisis, the general conclusion of the thesis supports the view that in order to promote financial stability and a greater ability for economies to deal with negative shocks, governments should implement public policies aiming at strictly limiting the size and activity of the banking sector
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40

Smith, Heather Michelle. "Explaining ratification of human rights treaties signaling for aid during regional crises /". Connect to a 24 p. preview or request complete full text in PDF format. Access restricted to UC campuses, 2007. http://wwwlib.umi.com/cr/ucsd/fullcit?p3257393.

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Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of California, San Diego, 2007.
Title from first page of PDF file (viewed May 22, 2007). Available via ProQuest Digital Dissertations. Vita. Includes bibliographical references (p. 233-252).
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41

Dawood, Mary Hany A. K. "The challenge of predicting financial crises : modelling and evaluating early warning systems". Thesis, University of Birmingham, 2016. http://etheses.bham.ac.uk//id/eprint/6617/.

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The main purpose of constructing "Early Warning Systems" (EWSs) for financial crises is to provide policy makers with some lead time to take pre-emptive actions that would help avoid, or at least mitigate, the damages of an approaching crisis. Accordingly, this study empirically evaluates and compares the effectiveness of the econometric models developed so far to construct EWSs. In addition, a more accurate (dynamic-recursive) forecasting technique is developed to generate better out-of-sample warning signals for currency, banking, and sovereign debt crises in the different regions of the world. The empirical analysis shows that the predictive performance of the EWS is significantly improved when using simple pooled models that account for the heterogeneity of the signalling indicators across the different regions. Moreover, including the entire crisis period in the sample outperforms the more common practice of dropping post-crisis-onset periods or using a multinomial specification of the crisis variable. In addition, the findings reveal that our dynamic-recursive technique provides more accurate out-of-sample forecasts for logit models. Finally, the dynamic signal extraction approach is recommended for policy makers who value avoiding financial crises at all costs, while the binomial logit model is more suitable for less conservative policy makers who consider the economic and social costs of false alarms.
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42

Nabar, Malhar Shyam V. "Essays on investment, innovation and productivity growth /". View online version; access limited to Brown University users, 2005. http://wwwlib.umi.com/dissertations/fullcit/3174647.

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43

Guevara-Espejel, Daniel-Enrique. "Monitoring intellectual capital : a case study of a large company during the recent economic crisis". Thesis, Paris 11, 2011. http://www.theses.fr/2011PA111027/document.

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Now a day, the World has been experiencing the worst economic crisis since 1929, and this is considered as the “perfect storm”. In addition, the businesses and organizations are trying to be safe under this context. Based on Akerman cycle approach, this research focus on an organization case study that is trying to respond to an economic crisis it has been experiencing since 2009. Also, this investigation identifies how some of the businesses’ intangible assets are becoming relevant and they are trying to help during this situation, particularly right after the enterprise experienced some years of expansion and growth. The intangible assets considered are included in the intellectual capital taxonomy of the organization and also are grouped in the human, structural and relational capital sets. Moreover, there is a specific monitor of one of the intangible assets and it is more related to the sales quotation rat
Le monde connaît aujourd’hui la plus grande crise depuis 1929, considérée par les chercheurs comme une «tempête parfaite». Dans ce contexte, les entreprises tentent de s’en sortir en cherchant des solutions et des alternatives possibles. Cette recherche se focalise sur l’étude du cas d’une grande entreprise qui tente de réagir face à la crise économique qu’elle subit depuis 2009. En se basant sur l’approche des cycles économiques d’ Akerman, cette recherche identifie la manière dontcertains actifs immatériels de l’entreprise deviennent importants en constituant des leviers capables d’apporter de l’aide dans une situation de crise, en particulier, lorsque l’entreprise a connu des années de croissance et de développement auparavant. Les actifs immatériels que nous considérons font partie du capital intellectuel de l’entreprise. Nous entendons par capital intellectuel, le capital humain, structurel et relationnel de l’entreprise. Il y a un pilotage spécifique de l'un des actifs immatériels, lié au taux de cotation des ventes
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44

Dammann, Dan Torge [Verfasser]. "Three Essays on the Effects of Political Crises on Economic Attitudes / Dan Torge Dammann". Hamburg : Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Hamburg Carl von Ossietzky, 2021. http://d-nb.info/1228537763/34.

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45

Rodrigues, Inês Isabel Faria Lopes Gouveia. "Financial Crises meet society : economic turmoil and societal stress through a local projection approach". Master's thesis, Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão, 2020. http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/20998.

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Mestrado em Mathematical Finance
Esta dissertação estuda o perfil temporal do impacto das crises bancárias sistêmicas sobre as taxas de suicídio usando um painel de 53 países entre 1980 e 2016. Usamos a metodologia desenvolvida por Oscar Jordà em 2005, as Projeções Locais, para medir este impacto. Com foco num horizonte de cinco anos, fica claro que os efeitos adversos das crises bancárias sistémicas persistem ao longo desse horizonte de tempo nas taxas de suicídio. Com este estudo, foi identificado um efeito positivo entre crises bancárias e taxas de suicídio. Além disso, este estudo está de acordo com estudos anteriores, uma vez que foi observado que esse efeito é de curta duração.
This thesis studies the temporal profile of the impact of systemic banking crises on suicide rates using a panel from 53 countries between 1980 and 2016. A methodology developed by Oscar Jordà in 2005, the Local Projections, was used to measure this impact. Focusing on a five-year horizon, it is clear that systemic banking crises' adverse effects persist throughout this time horizon on suicide rates. With this study, a positive effect was identified between banking crises and suicide rates. Moreover, this study is consistent with previous studies since it was observed that this effect does not last for long.
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
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46

Nikolic, Stefan. "New economic history of Yugoslavia, 1919-1939 : industrial location, market integration and financial crises". Thesis, University of York, 2017. http://etheses.whiterose.ac.uk/17519/.

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New Economic History of interwar Yugoslavia is uncharted territory. Combining historical data with modern econometrics the present thesis explores how economic development of Yugoslavia - a newly established and diverse country - was shaped by industrial location, market integration and financial crises. The results are relevant for the present as the least economically developed part of Europe today is comprised mostly of Yugoslav successor states. What determined the location of industry in interwar Yugoslavia? Using panel data econometrics and a new dataset which covers eight Yugoslav regions and ten industries over a period of eight years industrial location is explained by a model in which Heckscher-Ohlin (HO), New Economic Geography (NEG) and Path Dependence theories are captured by interaction variables. Econometric results show that all three of the tested theories had a role to play. History matters in addition to HO and NEG type forces in determining the location of industry. Were Yugoslav markets integrating during the interwar? If so, what were the drivers? Analysis of a novel panel data set of commodity prices observed over ten cities during the period from 1922 to 1939 shows that market integration increased during the interwar. City-pair commodity market integration is modeled using a set of trade cost. The progress of market integration during the interwar is explained by institutional and infrastructural advancements that reduced transaction and transport costs. Cultural differences did not impede market integration. Yugoslavia set out on a process of economic integration that was not hampered by its diversity. Did Yugoslavia and six other East European countries experience financial crises during 1931? If so, what were the main contributing factors? Newly gathered high frequency data series on indicators of currency, banking and sovereign risk crises are explored using an analytical narrative. Worsening of economic fundamentals, drop in international credit and global demand, as well as international transmission led to financial crises in Eastern Europe in 1931. Completely avoiding financial crises was elusive but the most economically developed country was the least affected. This pioneering New Economic History study of interwar Yugoslavia leads to a broad conclusion that present day economic backwardness and regional differences in economic development between Yugoslav successor states are not new and do not stem from a historical lack of market integration but can partly be explained by regionally uneven industrial development and a long history with financial crises.
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47

Asel, Johannes, Arthur Posch i Gerhard Speckbacher. "Squeezing or cuddling? The impact of economic crises on management control and stakeholder management". Springer Verlag, 2011. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11846-010-0051-4.

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This paper analyzes the effects of economic crises on firms' use of management control mechanisms and on their management of stakeholder relations. Moreover, the association between stakeholder management and management control system use is analyzed. In the wake of the economic crisis of 2008/2009, many firms were faced with severe threats that called for immediate short-term action to ensure firm survival. However, short-term action like massive cost-cutting and cash generation often are blamed for going at the expense of long-term health as key stakeholder relations may be irreversibly harmed. Hence, three interrelated questions are addressed theoretically and empirically: First, we analyze the impact of the recent economic crisis on firms' control strategies. More specifically, we investigate whether a high crisis impact on firms is associated with a shortening of reporting cycles, a more interactive use of control-relevant information, restriction of employee autonomy and a focus on liquidity and cost-cutting. Second, we examine from the viewpoint of stakeholder theory how firms can make use of active stakeholder management for crisis management. Third, we explore whether firms can take short-term measures for ensuring liquidity and cutting costs and at the same time pursue a stakeholder strategy aiming at the long-term survival of the firm. Using survey data from 204 major Austrian corporations, we provide evidence that firms significantly adjusted their control systems as a response to the economic crisis. Our data do not indicate an immanent contradiction between a "short-term finance focus" and the pursuit of a sustainable stakeholder strategy.
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48

Lodi, Ana Luiza Guimarães. "O papel dos bancos públicos do Brasil e da Índia no contexto da crise econômica mundial". [s.n.], 2010. http://repositorio.unicamp.br/jspui/handle/REPOSIP/286371.

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Orientador: Daniela Magalhães Prates
Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Instituto de Economia
Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-17T11:51:32Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Lodi_AnaLuizaGuimaraes_M.pdf: 1522866 bytes, checksum: d8c372f7737fc20d3b68f8b27a597c88 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2010
Resumo: Esta dissertação pretende mostrar como no Brasil e a Índia - que possuem sistemas bancários mistos, com participação significativa de bancos públicos - esses bancos tiveram um papel fundamental na atenuação do efeito-contágio da crise econômica internacional por meio da realização de ações anticíclicas, que constituem uma das funções das instituições financeiras públicas. Os sistemas bancário brasileiro e indiano passaram por amplas reformas a partir do início da década de 1990, no âmbito dos processos de liberalização financeira interna que integraram as chamadas reformas neoliberais. No Brasil, muitos bancos foram privatizados, enquanto na Índia, apesar da venda de parte do capital de várias instituições públicas, o governo manteve o controle dessas instituições. Sendo assim, mesmo após as reformas, a presença de bancos públicos nos dois países continuou relevante, principalmente na Índia. Diante do contágio da crise, a maioria das iniciativas de política econômica teve como denominador comum a ação anticíclica, contrariando o padrão adotado em situações anteriores de instabilidade. Nos dois países, a existência de um sistema bancário misto, permitiu a adoção de ações anticíclicas por essas instituições, contribuindo para atenuar a contração do crédito por parte das instituições privadas, que adotam um comportamento cauteloso nos momentos de reversão do ciclo. A despeito das especificidades de cada país, os bancos públicos garantiram a manutenção dos fluxos de crédito após o efeito-contágio, o que resultou na ampliação da participação deste tipo de instituição no estoque de crédito doméstico das duas economias estudadas
Abstract: This thesis aims to show how in Brazil and India - which have banking systems, with significant participation of public banks - these banks had a key role in mitigating the contagion effect of the international economic crisis by holding countercyclical actions, which constitute one of the functions of public financial institutions. The Brazilian and Indian banking systems have undergone extensive renovations, from the early 1990s, in proceedings of internal financial liberalization that joined the so-called neoliberal reforms. In Brazil, many banks were privatized, while in India, despite the sale of part of the capital from various public institutions, the government kept the control of these institutions. Thus, even after the reforms, the presence of public banks in both countries continued relevant, especially in India. Given the contagion of the crisis, most economic policy initiatives had a common denominator that was the anti-cyclical action, contrary to the standard adopted in previous situations of instability. In these two countries, the existence of banking systems with a significant presence of public banks allowed the adoption of countercyclical actions by these institutions, helping to mitigate the contraction of credit by private institutions, which adopt a cautious behavior in moments of reversal of cycle. Despite the specificities of each country, the public banks ensured the maintenance of credit flows after the contagion effect, which resulted in a increasing of the involvement of this kind institution in stock of domestic credit of the two studied economies
Mestrado
Politica Economica
Mestre em Ciências Econômicas
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49

Azis, Iwan J. "A new approach to modeling the impacts of financial crises on income distribution and poverty /". Tokyo : Asian Development Bank, 2002. http://www.adbi.org/files/2002.03.rp35.income.distribution.poverty.pdf.

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50

Tsopanakis, Andreas. "Essays on financial stability, systemic risk and the spillover effects of financial crises". Thesis, University of Glasgow, 2014. http://theses.gla.ac.uk/5496/.

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This thesis investigates in depth several aspects of economic activity through an aggregated metric, which aims to account for the inherent distressful characteristics of the financial system. This work is strongly motivated by the extraordinary evolution of the financial and economic landscape and the induced fragility within its foundations, especially during the last years. Chapter 1 provides an overview of the theoretical considerations on the topics discussed in this thesis. Additionally, the motivations and a brief presentation of the thesis contents are provided. Chapter 2 empirically investigates the leading indicator properties of the aggregate systemic risk indices to the real economy. In order to do that, I construct a series of financial stress indices for 25 countries. The countries are bundled into three groups (OECD, Asian, Latin American countries) and, apart from the national indexes, regional and a global index are computed. In order to do this, a number of variables from the banking sector, financial and capital markets and the foreign exchange market of each country, have been used for the implementation of these indicators. The indexes are successful early warning indicators, accurately capturing previous financial stress periods, while the financial turmoil of 2007-2009 is, without doubt, the most severe one. Forecasting exercises indicate the improved ability of indices-enhanced models to successfully predict the evolution of economic activity. Chapter 3 investigates the interrelations and financial interconnections of the Eurozone economies. Financial stress indices are constructed for, both, countries and their four most important financial markets (banking, money, equity and bond). Using VAR models, a number of innovative conclusions are reached, such that: 1) not all peripheral countries (and especially Greece and Portugal) should be blamed for the crisis exacerbation 2) there is clear evidence of stronger interdependencies between banking and bond markets and 3) a degree of segregation (in terms of financial stress interdependence) between peripheral and core Eurozone economies. The last essay aims to the deeper empirical investigation of potential crosscovariances and spillover effects between the Eurozone economies and financial markets. Full, asymmetric GARCH-BEKK models are estimated, both on a market (or 3 country) wide level and, then, with the full spectrum of Euro Area markets. In other words, we complete an empirical examination, both “within” and “between” Eurozone economies and markets. The results reveal a number of interesting insights: on country wide level, there is strong volatility transmission channel from the most heavily hit, from the crisis, economies towards the rest. Additionally, the crucial importance and role on this transmission from the banking and bond markets is underlined. Contrary to common wisdom, Greece is not the main propagator of volatility uncertainty, while it is between the most important receivers of volatility risk. The same holds for other peripheral economies, while the importance of money market is also evident in the large, “between”, empirical approach.
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