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Konchenko, E. "Demographic changes – overpopulation". Thesis, Вид-во СумДУ, 2006. http://essuir.sumdu.edu.ua/handle/123456789/11668.
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Braude, Jacob 1969. "Economic effects of demographic changes". Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2000. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/9007.
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Thesis (Ph.D.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Economics, 2000.Includes bibliographical references (p. 85-91).
This thesis examines several economic implications of demographic changes. Chapter 2 documents a relation between the age structure of economies and their real exchange rate. The relation varies with the level of development. Among developed countries a 10 percentage point higher ratio of old people to the working age population is associated with a 12-15 percent higher price level. In middle income developing economies, a 10 percentage point increase in the ratio of children to the working age population is related to a 4 percent increase in the price level. A simple model attributes the findings to the effect of the age groups on the demand for nontradables. Its calibration indicates that this explanation can account for a substantial part of the observed effect of the elderly. It is also consistent with the much smaller impact of children. The fact that the significance of the elderly is limited to developed countries further supports the argument. The generational conflict hypothesis argues that the elderly might use their political power to reduce public resources for children. It is usually tested by exploiting the localized nature of school funding in the US. Chapter 3 takes a different approach using cross-country data on family benefits. I find a positive relation at the national level between the generosity of these benefits and the share of the elderly in the electorate. The findings can add to the debate on local school funding. I also suggest that the effect of the elderly may reflect the larger proportion of women among them. Chapter 4 shows that individuals with no post-secondary education are less supportive of public R&D spending. This points to possible political economy causes of technological change. A high proportion of educated voters may accelerate such change by expanding public R&D outlays. Thus an increased supply of skilled workers could raise the relative demand for them. The difference in support for R&D spending suggests that it favors skilled workers either by directly employing them or indirectly by generating skill-biased technological change.
by Jacob Braude.
Ph.D.
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Zhang, Qi. "Three Essays on Demographic Changes and International Trade". Thesis, Université d'Ottawa / University of Ottawa, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/10393/31936.
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Chapter 1: A Population Aging Analysis for Canada Using the National Transfer Accounts Approach: This analysis develops a new data set for Canada using an accounting methodology called National Transfer Accounts (NTA). NTA permits building an accounting system that introduces age into national accounts. NTA is consistent with the conventional national accounts and allows the estimation of lifecycle patterns for labour income and consumption from private and public sources. It also allows the calculation of per capita and aggregate lifecycle deficits (LCD) or surpluses (LCS) in an economy. In this chapter we calculate Canada’s per capita and aggregate LCD for 2006. Using demographic projections for the next five decades, we present the aggregate LCD in Canada for the period 2006 to 2056 assuming a constant per capital LCD during this time horizon. The projection results show that labour income needs to increase rapidly or consumption needs to be cut significantly to compensate for the pressure on the aggregate lifecycle deficit as a result of population aging.
Chapter 2: An Overlapping Generations Computable General Equilibrium (OLG-CGE) Model with Age-dependent Rates of Time Preference: This analysis develops a methodology to introduce an age-dependent rate of time preference to calibrate an OLG-CGE model with per capita age profile consumption path derived from the NTA framework of Chapter 1. The results show that the economic impact from an aging population will be significant. The living standard will decline by 15% from the present to 2050 and decline by 20% by the year 2105. To reduce such a decline, the Canadian government may introduce policies that could encourage labour force participation. We analyze the impact of: a) an increase in the general labour force participation rate for age 20 to 64; b) an increase in the labour force participation rate for workers aged 50 to 64; c) late retirement. Our results suggest that maintaining the current standard of living will be extremely difficult after 2026. Nevertheless, this would help reduce the economic pressure from population aging.
Chapter 3: 9/11 Security Measures and North American Security Perimeter: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis: The objective of this analysis is to assess the impact of the North American Security Perimeter (NASP) on both the Canadian and the U.S. economies. The NASP is a change in Canada-U.S. security paradigm that would allow the liberalization of the post 9/11 security measures at the Canada-U.S. border. This study applies a multi-sector and multi-region general equilibrium model together with econometric analysis. After simulating the NASP, Canada’s capital market was found to become more attractive. Under the NASP, the welfare of Canada is estimated to increase by $19 billion or 1.8% of GDP, and that of the U.S. is estimated to increase by $32 billion or 0.3% of GDP.
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Housseini, Bouba. "Essays on demographic changes, health and economic development". Thesis, Université Laval, 2014. http://www.theses.ulaval.ca/2014/30745/30745.pdf.
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Dans un contexte de changements démographiques, ma thèse de doctorat vise à clarifier deux questions principales : i)comment évaluer le progrès des nations lorsque les populations diffèrent en taille, longévité et répartition des revenus ? et ii)quels sont les effets de la fécondité et de la mortalité sur la croissance économique en Afrique subsaharienne ? La première partie (chapitres 1 et 2) élucide la manière dont les changements en taille de la population, en longévité et en répartition des revenus pourraient être socialement évalués, tandis que la seconde partie (chapitre 3) fournit un cadre de politique publique et des éclairages sur les moyens de réaliser une dividende démographique dans le contexte de l’Afrique subsaharienne. J’adopte deux approches différentes pour aborder ces questions. La première partie utilise une méthode welfariste qui développe et applique (sur l’Afrique subsaharienne) des fonctions et critères d’évaluation sociale intertemporelle adaptés aux populations de taille et de durée de vie variables. La deuxième partie utilise une approche économétrique qui développe et estime un modèle d’équations simultanées des déterminants de la mortalité, de la fécondité et de la performance économique en utilisant des données de panel des pays de l’Afrique subsaharienne. Le chapitre 1 explore les principes axiomatiques et welfaristes d’évaluation du bien-être social dans un cadre intertemporel. Il apporte des réponses à certaines des limites des méthodes existantes dans la littérature, en proposant en particulier une fonction d’évaluation sociale qui échappe à la conclusion répugnante temporelle, qui est neutre vis-à-vis de la fragmentation des vies et qui satisfait la cohérence temporelle de niveau critique. Pour ce faire, nous caractérisons une fonction d’utilité intertemporelle de niveau critique qui évalue la vie de manière périodique. Pour palier les controverses sur l’actualisation ou pas des utilités à travers le temps, deux versions de la fonction sont développées, l’une avec actualisation et l’autre sans. Le chapitre 2 met l’accent sur la manière d’évaluer le progrès des nations lorsque les populations diffèrent en taille, en longévité et en répartition des revenus. Le cadre d’analyse est ensuite appliqué au contexte démographique (particulier) de l’Afrique subsaharienne. Les résultats indiquent que la contribution de la taille de la population au bien-être social dépend des considérations éthiques concernant le choix d’un niveau critique au-delà duquel une vie est considérée comme digne d’être vécue (ou améliorant le bien-être social). La durée de vie n’a pas un effet significatif sur le bien-être social avant la transition démographique. L’explosion démographique observée au cours du dernier siècle en Afrique subsaharienne a détérioré le bien-être social pour des valeurs de niveau critique supérieures à 180$ par année, soit environ la moitié du seuil bien connu de pauvreté d’un dollar par jour. Cela corrobore l’idée souvent émise selon laquelle le ralentissement de la croissance démographique en Afrique subsaharienne n’ élèverait pas seulement le niveau de vie moyen, mais augmenterait également le bien-être social en général. Le chapitre 3 développe et estime un modèle économétrique des déterminants conjointes de la fécondité, de la mortalité et de la performance économique en Afrique subsaharienne afin d’identifier les actions de politique publique pour accélérer la transition démographique dans la région et par conséquent réaliser son corollaire de dividende démographique. L’analyse s’appuie sur un modèle économétrique d’équations simultanées utilisant des données de panel multi-pays pour la période 1960-2010. Pour faire face au problème d’endogénéité, nous adoptons la méthode des variables instrumentales en exploitant différentes sources de variations exogènes du revenu par tête, de la fécondité et de la mortalité. Les résultats montrent que chaque année supplémentaire en espérance de vie à la naissance implique une croissance du revenu par tête de 13,1%. En outre, un doublement du revenu par tête entraîne une augmentation de la longévité de 6,3 ans. Toutefois, les relations entre la fécondité et le revenu par tête et l’espérance de vie à la naissance ressortent être ambigues en raison certainement de la dépendance des économies de l’Afrique subsaharienne aux ressources naturelles et au commerce international. Nos résultats soulignent la nécessité de promouvoir la transformation structurelle des économies de l’Afrique subsaharienne afin d’accélérer la transition démographique dans la région et réaliser une dividende démographique.In a context of demographic changes, my PhD thesis aims to clarify two main questions: i)how the progress of nations can be evaluated when populations differ in size, longevity and income distribution? and ii)what are the effects of fertility and mortality on economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA)? The first part (chapters 1 and 2) elucidates how changes in population size, longevity and income distribution can be socially evaluated while the second part (chapter 3) provides a public policy framework and insights on how the demographic dividend can be captured in the Sub-Saharan Africa context. I adopt two different approaches to analyse these questions. The first part uses a welfarist method that develops and applies (to SSA) intertemporal social evaluation functions and criteria suitable to variable populations. The second part uses an econometric approach that develops and estimates a simultaneous equations model of the determinants of mortality, fertility and economic performance using country-level panel data from SSA. Chapter 1 explores the use of axiomatic and welfarist principles to assess social welfare in an intertemporal framework. It attempts to overcome some of the limits of existing methods in the literature, in particular by avoiding a temporal repugnant conclusion, by neither penalizing nor favoring life fragmentation, and by satisfying critical-level temporal consistency. It does this by characterizing a critical-level lifetime utility function that values life periodically. To address some of the controversies in discounting utilities across time, two alternative versions of the function are developed, one with discounting and one without. Chapter 2 focusses on how the progress of nations can be evaluated when populations differ in size, longevity and income distributions. The framework is applied to the (particular) demographic context of SSA. The findings indicate that the contribution of population size to social welfare depends on ethical considerations regarding the choice of a critical level above which a life is considered to be worth living (or social welfare improving). Length of life does not have a significant effect on social welfare prior to the demographic transition. SSA’s demographic explosion over the last century has worsened social welfare for critical-level values greater than $180 per year, i.e. roughly half the well-known dollar-a-day poverty line. This supports the often heard view that slowing down demographic growth in SSA may not only increase average living standards but may also raise overall social welfare. Chapter 3 develops and estimates an econometric model of the joint determinants of fertility, mortality and economic performance in SSA in order to identify public policy actions to accelerate the demographic transition in the region and consequently to achieve its corollary demographic dividend. The analysis builds on a simultaneous equations econometric model using multi-country panel data for the period 1960 - 2010. To deal with endogeneity, we use the instrumental variable approach, exploiting different sources of exogenous variations of per capita income, fertility and mortality. The results show that each additional year of life expectancy at birth implies a growth of per capita income of 13.1%. Also, a doubling of per capita income leads to a rise in longevity of 6.3 years. However the relationships between fertility and both per capita income and life expectancy at birth appear to be ambiguous probably due to the dependency of SSA economies on natural resources and international trade. Our findings point to the necessity of fostering the structural transformation of SSA economies in order to accelerate the demographic transition in the region and to capture the demographic dividend.
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Das, Minakshi. "The Pattern of demographic changes in Darjeeling hill areas : implications for future generations". Thesis, University of North Bengal, 2008. http://hdl.handle.net/123456789/1273.
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Rutigliano, Roberta. "Fertility and family ties in times of demographic changes". Doctoral thesis, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/10803/669620.
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This thesis investigates how big economic and demographic changes over the past century influence fertility dynamics with a particular focus on family ties. The first chapter investigates the role of type of partnership in shaping fertility behaviours. Comparing two orthogonally different countries like Norway and Spain, we analyse differences in fertility behaviours between cohabiting and married couples in both countries. For Norway, we find a significant association between selection into either partnership type and fertility, whereas for Spain, a newcomer to cohabitation, we find a significant association between fertility and selection into marriage. The second chapter analyses the role of the so called “bean-pole” family on fertility. It investigates whether would-be grandparents’ propensity to care for their grandchildren influences their transition into parenthood. Considering national context, I estimate distinct models for different groups of countries. Comparison across 11 countries from the first two waves of the Survey of Health, Aging, and Retirement in Europe reveal that grandparental childcare propensity has a positive and significant effect on the transition into parenthood for both pronatalist (Belgium, France) and protraditional countries(Austria, Germany, Greece, Italy, Spain, and Switzerland). The third chapter focuses on grandparental childcare provision. By using an instrumental variable approach, it explores the effect of grandparental childcare, during the first year of the first born, on the risk of a second birth transition among UK couples. The analysis is carried out using the first five waves of the Millennium Cohort Study (MCS). Results show a positive and significant effect of grandparental childcare on the risk of second birth. This effect is slightly weakened by level of incomeAquesta tesi investiga com els grans canvis econòmics i demogràfics ocorreguts durant l’últim segle han influenciat les dinàmiques de fertilitat, amb especial èmfasi en els vincles familiars. El primer capítol investiga el rol del tipus de parella en la configuració dels patrons de fertilitat. Mitjançant la comparació de dos països ortogònicament diferents, Noruega i Espanya, analitzem les diferències d’aquests dos països en els comportaments de fertilitat entre la cohabitació i el matrimoni. A Noruega trobem una associació significativa entre la selecció en qualsevol tipus de parella i la fertilitat, mentre que per a Espanya, a on el fenomen de la cohabitació és més recent, trobem una associació significativa entre la fertilitat i la selecció al matrimoni. El segon capítol analitza el paper de l'anomenada família bean-pole en la fertilitat, analitzant en detall si la propensió dels futurs avis a cuidar els seus néts influeix en la transició cap a la paternitat dels seus fills. En aquest cas, i tenint en compte el context nacional, es calculen diferents models per a diferents grups de països. La comparació entre 11 països de les dues primeres ones de l'Enquesta de Salut, Envelliment i Jubilació a Europa (SHARE) revela que la propensió a cuidar els néts té un efecte positiu i significatiu sobre la transició cap a la paternitat, tant per als països pro-natalistes (Bèlgica, França) com per als països pro-tradicionals (Àustria, Alemanya, Grècia, Itàlia, Espanya i Suïssa). Per últim, el tercer capítol es centra en l’efecte que produeix l’atenció als primer néts per part dels avis sobre un possible segon naixement entre les parelles del Regne Unit. Mitjançant l'ús d'un enfocament de la variable instrumental, l’anàlisi es realitza mitjançant les primeres cinc ones del Millennium Cohort Study (MCS). Els resultats mostren un efecte positiu i significatiu dels avis en el risc d’un segon naixement. Aquest efecte està lleugerament debilitat pel nivell d'ingressos.
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Shi, Niu 1963. "Demographic changes and genetic variation of an alfalfa (Medicago sativa L.) population". Thesis, The University of Arizona, 1991. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/277907.
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The objectives of this study were to describe demographic change in an alfalfa population and determine whether genetic changes were associated with stand loss in an alfalfa field during the year of establishment. A nondormant composite population (AZ-88NDC) was sown at 1944 seeds per square meter in Oct. 1988 at Tucson, AZ. Only 29% of the seeds sown germinated and emerged. Survivorship curve of the emerged seedling population had some characteristics of Deevey type III. Two heavy mortality periods were observed. Low temperatures might be the major cause of the first heavy stand loss. The second significant stand loss could be explained by increased density stress. Isozyme profiles were produced from 60 day survivors dug from the field, unselected greenhouse-grown AZ-88NDC (='Unsel') and 300-d progenies produced by intermating plants surviving 300 days. Significant differences were observed in overall level of population heterozygosity of 60-d and unselected populations based on fixation indices of six isozyme loci. This suggests that genetic changes may be associated with establishment of an alfalfa stand.
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Miller, Elizabeth Jill, i res cand@acu edu au. "Burden of Care: Ageing in urban China and Japan: Gender, the family and the state". Australian Catholic University. School of Social Work, 2002. http://dlibrary.acu.edu.au/digitaltheses/public/adt-acuvp22.29082005.
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This thesis examines how rapid demographic, social and economic changes are impacting on traditional care for the urban aged in China and Japan as both experience world record rates of ageing caused by greater longevity and lower birth rates. The challenge for their governments is to foster active contribution by the healthy aged to society and protection for the frail aged. China lags behind Japan in special treatment for senior citizens. The manner in which these two countries handle the ageing of their populations could provide valuable lessons for Australia in the future.
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Kanayo, Ogujiuba. "Public sector spending in Nigeria: implications for poverty, demographic changes and millennium development goals target". Thesis, University of the Western Cape, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/11394/4652.
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Philosophiae Doctor - PhDOver the last two decades, budgetary allocations to both the Health and Education sectors have been on the increase in Nigeria, while a counter-factual feedback on its effects for various economic groups and distributional effect for different population households has not been defined and well known. The resultant effect has been gross inefficiency and sub-optimality in terms of observed outcomes of the fiscal framework. In-addition, there have been a continuous quest by the citizenry for increased allocations to these sectors because of its supposed impact on the poverty index and standard of living. Although this is a compelling reason, but what is worrisome and equally troubling, is that the increasing incidence of poverty and expanding inequality in the Nigerian society have not mitigated, despite the scaling up of funding on the social sectors. Furthermore, the current level of socioeconomic development in Nigeria is not in tandem with the distributive outcome targets set by the 2004 reforms. Thus, understanding the current structure of poverty in Nigeria as well as beneficiaries of public sector spending provides a sound basis for tackling inequality and redesigning the current pro-poor frameworks. However, our analysis is focused on the distributional spread of beneficiaries from services and the counterfactual reciprocity of expenditure benefits rather than measuring the exact value to recipients of government-sponsored services. Our research methodology used the 2004 Nigerian Living Standard Survey; 2010 Harmonized Nigerian Living Standard Survey; Recent Cros-sectional data (2014) in South East Nigeria and secondary sources. Econometric methods (Error Correction Method); Marginal Odds estimation techniques, Concentration Curves and Ordered Logistic Regression were used for our analysis. Statistical and Econometric Software’s (E-Views; SPSS; DAD and STATA) were used for estimations. Econometric results showed misalignments between population dynamics and public sector expenditure on education, health and economic services. The government consumption expenditure was not sensitive to demographic changes. The derived adjustment coefficients of -1.38, -1.51 and 0.51 respectively, for education, health and economic services indicate huge gaps in terms of what optimal spending should have been, giving the population dynamics. Our benefit incidence analysis indicates that substantive gains have been made at the primary education and health care level, at the state level for SE Nigeria but there is a gross misapplication of funds at the secondary and tertiary levels of both education and health sectors. Results show that the state governments’ is subsidizing the rich at the levels of both secondary and tertiary for education and health care. In addition, country wide results indicate that apart from public primary education and health care for urban residents, no other level of social service was absolutely progressive in general terms, by gender or by location while the tertiary level of both services were regressive as shown by the 2010 survey results, in comparism to the 2004 survey results. Using the Ordered Logistic Regression, our result inclines to the lifecycle hypothesis which maintains that poverty oscillates depending on the age. At a younger age, it tends to be on the high side and decreases during the middle ages and increases with age. Our results discards the feminization of poverty general framework that women or female headed households are more prone to poverty due principally to low education and lack of opportunity to own assets such as land amongst others. This wasn’t the case for the South East Region of Nigeria. Estimates indicate that education status, health status and access to health facilities affected the category of welfare of head of households and invariable, the entire household. In general, our analysis shows misalignment of social expenditure for various population groups, both at the federal and state levels; making doubtful the realization of basic MDGs. Nigeria has to combine growth policies and assuring that demographics count, with the poor fully participating in economic development. Also, the need for a refocusing in resource allocation taking into cognizance gender dimensions cannot be overemphasized. A general re-allocation of spending going to females and the poorer households would lead to improvement in gender equality and health status of women and children. Expediting actions towards qualitative education will lead directly to an acceleration of many of the other MDGs, especially those focusing on the reduction of poverty and inequality. To attain MDG targets (post 2015) within a shorter period of time, there is the need to improve the quality of social infrastructure and services. Furthermore, research should be focused on improving knowledge and understanding of what policies, technologies and investments matter for sustained growth in the country. This will create the much needed multiplier effect on other aggregates. The degree to which the poor participate in the growth process and share in its proceeds matter; both in the pace and pattern of growth. It is therefore important to have categorization of the population into economic groups when formulating a developmental framework for poverty reduction programmes. The study recommends sequencing of interventions, strengthening of institutions and other several interrelated areas to attain effectiveness of public sector spending.
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Saha, Kartick. "Demographic profile of North Bengal in colonial and post-colonial period (1871-1991): study on economic, cultural and political changes". Thesis, University of North Bengal, 2018. http://ir.nbu.ac.in/handle/123456789/2775.
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Casey, Ryan Michael. "Will South Dakota's demographic shifts lead to changes in voting behavior? a county-level analysis 1980-2008 /". Connect to Electronic Thesis (CONTENTdm), 2010. http://worldcat.org/oclc/650335762/viewonline.
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Pereira, João Paulo Cabral. "Demographic changes in a life-cycle small open economy with endogenous time allocation and age-dependent mortality". Doctoral thesis, Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão, 2020. http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/20624.
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Doutoramento em EconomiaThis thesis analyses the effects of demographic aging on a small open economy. It is driven by the aging process that advanced economies are going through. Population aging has a negative accounting effect on the economy by deteriorating dependency ratios. We quantify these negative impacts and one of our main objectives is to test and quantify, the existence of a positive behavioral effect of the agents in response to an increase in life expectancy. The economy's model is developed over three chapters. In the first, the consumer block is modeled. Individuals maximize their expected lifetime utility, taking into account an age dependent survival function. In order to enhance the behavioral effect, individuals affect their available time in leisure, studying, and work at the intensive margin. The partial equilibrium numerical analysis suggests an increase in labor supply and investment in human capital as a response to the increase in life expectancy. In the second essay, an endogenous growth model of horizontal innovation is constructed in which growth has two sources: research and accumulation of human capital. It is confirmed that the growth rate of GDP per capita is negatively affected by the rate of deterioration of the dependency ratio. In the third essay, we perform the numerical analysis of the model developed in the previous chapters. With the demographic scenario chosen, which contains aging and population decline, in case of inaction, public and foreign debt would explode. Among the policies studied to control public debt, the best is to raise the retirement age. We also conclude that the aging of the population has a more significant negative impact than the population decrease. Finally, we detect a positive behavioral effect of the agents, which is manifested more by the increase of labor supply, but this effect is quantitatively modest.
Esta tese analisa os efeitos do envelhecimento demográfico numa pequena economia aberta. É motivada pelo processo de envelhecimento que as economias avançadas estão a passar. O envelhecimento populacional tem um efeito contabilístico negativo sobre a economia ao deteriorar os rácios de dependência. Quantificamos estes impactos negativos e um dos nossos objectivos principais é testar, e quantificar, a existência de um efeito comportamental positivo dos agentes em reacção a um aumento da esperança de vida. O modelo da economia é desenvolvido ao longo de três capítulos. No primeiro, modeliza-se o bloco do consumidor. Os indivíduos maximizam a sua utilidade esperada de vida, tomando em consideração uma função de sobrevivência dependente da idade. Com vista a potenciar o efeito comportamental, os indivíduos afectam o seu tempo disponível em lazer, estudo e trabalho na margem intensiva. A análise numérica de equilíbrio parcial sugere um aumento da oferta de trabalho e do investimento em capital humano como resposta ao aumento na esperança de vida. No segundo ensaio, constrói-se um modelo de crescimento endógeno de inovação horizontal em que o crescimento tem duas fontes: investigação e acumulação de capital humano. Confirma-se que a taxa de crescimento do PIB per capita é afetada negativamente pela deterioração do rácio de dependência. No terceiro ensaio fazemos a análise numérica do modelo desenvolvido nos capítulos anteriores. Com o cenário demográfico escolhido, o qual contém envelhecimento e decréscimo populacional, em caso de inacção, a dívida pública e externa explodiriam. Dentre as políticas estudadas para controlar a dívida pública, a melhor é aumentar a idade de reforma. Concluímos, ainda, que o envelhecimento da população tem um impacto negativo mais importante que o decréscimo populacional. Por fim, detetamos um efeito comportamental positivo dos agentes, que se manifesta mais por via do acréscimo da oferta de trabalho, mas este efeito é quantitativamente modesto.
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
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Browne, Irene Ann. "Into and out of poverty: Changes in the demographic composition of the United States poor, 1967-1987". Diss., The University of Arizona, 1991. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/185703.
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The dissertation examines how changes in the race, gender and age composition of poverty over the past twenty years are linked to the unique experiences of particular birth cohorts. Demographer Richard Easterlin argues that generations born between 1944 and 1963 (the 'baby boom') face exceptional labor market competition and economic vulnerability due to their large numbers. Extending this theory, the central question of the dissertation is: Have families headed by the baby boom generation been more likely to be poor in the 1970s and 1980s compared to families headed by generations born prior to the baby boom? The findings indicate that among whites, the answer is clearly 'yes.' For African Americans, the answer appears to be 'no.' Results consistently show that the risk of poverty has been increasing with each successive generation of white family born since 1944. On the other hand, there is no evidence that black families headed by an individual born during the baby boom are more likely to be poor than those headed by previous generations. For both races, however, the most striking finding concerns the generation which was born after the baby boom. White and black families headed by adults born since 1964 are more likely to be poor compared to families headed by the older generations. The cohort effects on poverty are net of family structure, age of the family head, and period. The effects also persist controlling for employment variables which reflect labor market competition. Hypotheses about demographic trends in poverty from 1967 to 1987 are tested using multivariate analyses of a cross-sectional dataset (the Current Population Survey) and a longitudinal dataset (the Panel Study of Income Dynamics). Log-linear analyses of the Current Population Survey decompose the effects of family structure, age, period and cohort on poverty for all families as well as families headed by women. Discrete-time event history analyses of the PSID are used to model poverty among all families in any given year between 1969 and 1987. The dynamics of poverty are further examined in comparisons of nested multinomial logistic regression models of poverty entrances and exits among wives and female-headed families.
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Majikijela, Yamkela. "Participation of African migrants in the labour force of South Africa : are there structural changes from 2001 to 2011?" University of the Western Cape, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/11394/4865.
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Magister Philosophiae - MPhilThis thesis examines the distribution of African migrants across the different segments of the labour force in South Africa. The specific objective of this study is to demonstrate that there has been structural changes from 2001 to 2011 in the deployment of African immigrants in terms of occupation, employment sector, income groups just to name a few. Studies that have been recorded using the 2001 population census suggest that the South African labour market attracts majority of African migrants that are not highly qualified. The proposed study makes use of the 2011 population census to evaluate the extent to which the situation has changed or whether it remained the same between the two periods. The assumption underlying this study is that, over time the magnitude of qualified migrants has improved. As far as African migration is concerned, to capture the structural changes during the ten-year period (2001 to 2011) this study focuses on variables such as demographic and socioeconomic characteristics. To profile changes in the participation of African migrants, this study makes use of the 2001 and 2011 national population census data. Furthermore, statistical packages are used to test the relationship between variables. Policy document about migration are also used to provide the legislated framework with regards to the involvement of foreign labour in the South African labour force. The geographical scope of the study is national meaning it covers all nine provinces of South Africa.
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Han, Yu [Verfasser], Michael [Gutachter] Krause i Johannes [Gutachter] Pfeifer. "The Roles of Demographic Changes on Labor Market Dynamics and Consumption Inequality / Yu Han ; Gutachter: Michael Krause, Johannes Pfeifer". Köln : Universitäts- und Stadtbibliothek Köln, 2019. http://d-nb.info/1182533264/34.
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McGehee, Ronnie Lynn. "The impact of a large automotive manufacturing plant on demographic expansion and educational changes in a Mississippi school district". Diss., Mississippi State : Mississippi State University, 2007. http://library.msstate.edu/etd/show.asp?etd=etd-10242007-165719.
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Mu, Xiaoping [Verfasser]. "The development of Modic changes after lumbar surgical procedures and their association with patients' baseline demographic characters and disc degeneration / Xiaoping Mu". Gießen : Universitätsbibliothek, 2020. http://d-nb.info/1223462463/34.
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Thornthwaite, Sian Elisabeth. "The effects of legislative, demographic and social changes on the provision of school transport services by local education authorities in the United Kingdom". Thesis, University of Newcastle Upon Tyne, 1991. http://hdl.handle.net/10443/395.
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The current basis of school transport provision by the Local Education Authorities was introduced during the 1940s with the role of facilitating the attendance of pupils at the nearest appropriate school and ensuring that access to education was not based upon a child's place of residence or upon parental means. To meet this objective, the provision of free school transport was considered necessary if a child lived beyond the minimum walking distances, established as two miles for pupils of under eight years of age (eleven years in the case of Northern Ireland) and three miles for older pupils. In addition, Local Education Authorities have wide discretionary powers to provide school transport to pupils not statutorily entitled. During the past twenty years, this basis of provision has received repeated criticism for failing to address the issues of rising expenditure on school transport, equity, road safety and parental choice of school. This thesis, therefore, examines the long term demographic and social trends affecting the provision of school transport services by the Local Education Authorities and the institutional responses to these trends. It also examines the current provision of school transport at individual authority level and the recent changes to both public transport and education legislation, to establish whether there is a case for changing the basis of provision to address these issues. Having established that there is a case for changing the basis of provision, recent proposals for change are reviewed and alternative bases of provision, including the system of school transportation in the USA, are discussed in the context of the issues on which criticism has focussed. This shows that the three alternative bases of provision with the scope to address these issues to the greatest extent are: widening the availability of free school transport to all pupils; reducing the minimum walking distances; and flat-fare charging. These three alternatives are then evaluated, with the economic implications of their introduction, not only for the Local Education Authorities, but also parents and society in general, being assessed. From this, it is concluded that the introduction of a flat-fare charging policy could address all the issues to the greatest extent, whilst offering the most economically feasible alternative basis for the provision of school transport provision by the Local Education Authorities in the UK.
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Humphrey, W. "A history of Loughborough between c.1810 and c.1870 : a study of urban changes in a period of demographic growth and stagnation". Thesis, Loughborough University, 1986. https://dspace.lboro.ac.uk/2134/7484.
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This thesis is a study of urban change during an unusual period in the demographic history of Loughborough. Part, A is concerned with the theme in relation to the local economy. Chapter 1 deals with the introduction of a machine-made lace industry to the town, the rapid growth in population which followed and its subsequent decline. Demographic stagnation then developed and this is associated in chapter 2 with a cottagebased hosiery industry which had remained as the principal industry when the centre of the lace trade moved to Nottingham. Chapter 3 provides an intensive study of the occupational structure of the town at this period; it is based on, an analysis by computer of the 1851 census. At this time the economy was flat but the first signs of change in the industrial structure were beginning to appear. In Chapter 4 the theme is pursued as innovation rejuvenated the hosiery trade and demographic growth was resumed. Chapter 5 surveys the whole period for which reasonably detailed censuses exist, that is, from 1841, to 1881, and the themes of the earlier chapters are put into a wider perspective of the occupational flow of the town. In Chapter 6a specific factor is given attention; this was the status of Loughborough as a market town, which offered employment and income throughout the period, during industrial recession as well as expansion. Part B is concerned with the social aspects of the events narrated above. Chapter 7 offers an analysis of social patterns in the town in 1851 based, like Chapter 3, on the census of that year. The next chapter deals with some social responses to growth and stagnationt the chief of which were Luddism and Chartism, although the local education service and enviromental amelioration are also discussed. Chapter 9 concludes this section with an examination of the urban geography of Loughborough in relation to social class; an original system for the identification of social class from census and other material is propounded. The Appendices provide additional information which could not be conveniently placed within the main body of the thesis. Appendix 1 offers more historical background and Appendix 2 discusses in detail the methods used in the 1851 census analysis upon which chapters 31, 7 and 9 are based. Appendices 3,4,5 and 6 provide additional data for Chapters 3 and 9. Since much of the thesis is devoted to a discussion on the influence, of textile manufacture in Loughborough, the final Appendix consists of notes on the basic characteristics of the three principal machines.
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Ha, Kyungok. "Integrated Senior Housing". DigitalCommons@CalPoly, 2014. https://digitalcommons.calpoly.edu/theses/1267.
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It is difficult to have an integrated population throughout all age strata in a society. Especially if one considers the growing percentage of the aged population and their feeling alienated in their current physical surroundings. In order to solve imminent problems with the growing elderly population, a primary task should be considering how to improve the housing of senior citizens. Furthermore, bringing the youth and elderly together would produce a functioning self-help system. It engenders interaction strategies by employing the strengths of one generation to serve another generation’s needs. This idea was introduced by the systemic family therapist Gerhard Schiele. He indicates that current care facilities, nursing homes and assisted living facilities are not socially sustainable over the long term. This system also fosters a symbiotic relationship within a living complex, where residents and local communities interact in a mutually beneficial living arrangement. An improvement in the design of senior living community, combined with programs that promote a multi-generational interaction, can provide a holistic solution for the entire population. This cross generational solution will focus on the best practice of intergenerational living as it aims to allow all age groups to commingle. The ultimate goal of this study is to show an optimal type of residence within a mixed use building complex that accommodates the aging process with a full life perspective. A focus on age-related issues not only provides great promise for those as they mature, but also greatly improves the quality of life for everyone, regardless of age.
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Keim, Ulrike [Verfasser]. "Incidence of cutaneous melanoma with past and present trends until 2033 in Germany and Denmark. Impact of UVR exposure and demographic changes / Ulrike Keim". Tübingen : Universitätsbibliothek Tübingen, 2020. http://d-nb.info/1214640192/34.
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Tasnin, Mst Shahrima. "Demographic structure and aging in Bactrocera tryoni (Diptera: Tephritidae) in subtropical Australia". Thesis, Queensland University of Technology, 2021. https://eprints.qut.edu.au/207465/1/Mst%20Shahrima_Tasnin_Thesis.pdf.
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Queensland fruit fly is a destructive horticultural insect pest. Knowing the age-structure of fly populations, that is the relative proportion of young, middle-age, and old-age flies within a population at a given time, is critical for effective management. The thesis combined behavioural ecology with a novel mathematical analysis to identify the seasonal changes in the age of a wild Queensland fruit fly population. The study showed that the abundance and age-structure of the fly changed predictably with the season, strongly suggestive of an endogenous mechanism that helps the fly cope with seasonal changes in resource availability.
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Cornelius, Cintia. "Genetic and demographic consequences of human-driven landscape changes on bird populations the case of Aphrastura spinicauda (Furnariidae) in the temperate rainforest of South America /". Diss., St. Louis, Mo. : University of Missouri--St. Louis, 2006. http://etd.umsl.edu/r1821.
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Terzano, Kathryn R. "Branding, Commercialization, and Community Satisfaction in Ethnic Enclaves". The Ohio State University, 2011. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1305725460.
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Maciulevičienė, Edita. "Changes in the position of Kaunas city middle-aged population regarding their leisure time physical activity". Doctoral thesis, Lithuanian Academic Libraries Network (LABT), 2013. http://vddb.laba.lt/obj/LT-eLABa-0001:E.02~2013~D_20130522_082355-83549.
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In European countries, people, whatever the socio-economic group or nationality they belong to, men or women, the young or the elderly without distinction, should be guaranteed the right to health as well as its promotion and support measures (Javtokas, 2009). Personal health promotion reflects the general idea stating that in order to enhance health it is necessary to change the way of life (Tones, Tilford, 1994; Donev et al., 2007).
In this era of radical modernity related to the increased personal anxiety and uncertainty, there appear new alternative ways to enhance a person’s health: taking a variety of medications, trying different diets, engaging in traditional and non-traditional forms and ways of physical education (Cavill et al., 2006). In turn, physical education specialists and health educators bring out the importance of exercise encouraging a person to understand the social value and significance of their health promotion and physical development (Schneider and Becker, 2005; Netz et al., 2005). It is widely recognized that a major health risk factor associated with a person’s lifestyle, is low physical activity, the importance of which for human health has been shown in numerous scientific studies. They have emphasized the positive interface between active leisure time physical activity and a range of health indicators (Kalėdienė et al., 1999; Domarkienė, 2000; Borodulin, 2006; Kallings, 2008; Klumbienė, 2008, Gill et al., 2010; Weiler et al., 2010). The... [to full text]Visuotinai pripažįstama, kad esminis sveikatos rizikos veiksnys, susijęs su asmens gyvensena, yra mažas fizinis aktyvumas, kurio svarba žmogaus sveikatai yra įrodyta daugelyje mokslinių studijų. Jose pabrėžiama pozityvi aktyvios fizinės veiklos laisvalaikiu sąsaja su įvairiais sveikatos rodikliais (Kalėdienė ir kt., 1999; Domarkienė, 2000; Borodulin, 2006; Kallings, 2008; Klumbienė, 2008; Gill et al., 2010; Weiler et al., 2010). Nekelia abejonių faktas, kad dažnai deklaruojama sveikatos stiprinimo idėja yra tiesiogiai susijusi su gyvensenos ypatumais, kuriuos lemia tiek atskiro individo požiūris į savo sveikatą, tiek įvairūs išoriniai veiksniai, visų pirma gyvenimo sąlygos. Savaime suprantama, daugiausia dėmesio stiprinant žmonių sveikatą turėtų būti skiriama įvairiose sveikatos ugdymo (sveikatinimo) programose. Šių programų pagrindinis tikslas turėtų būti asmens elgesio keitimas panaudojant žiniasklaidos ir individualaus poveikio priemones (Van der Bij et al., 2002; Rise, 2004; Roux et al., 2008). Reiškiama nuomonė, kad supažindinus gyventojus su aktyvaus gyvenimo būdo principais, propaguojant ir skatinant pastovų jų realizavimą, tobulinant fizinę parengtį, pagerėtų ir žmonių gyvenimo kokybė (Aхвердова, Maгин, 2002; Taylor et al., 2002; Netz et al., 2005; Kallings, 2008; Miller, Miller, 2010). Kita vertus, kada kalbama apie fizinį aktyvumą laisvalaikiu kaip apie asmens visapusiškos gerovės sąlygą bei ligų profilaktikos veiksnį labiau akcentuojama jo reikšmė vaikystės ir... [toliau žr. visą tekstą]
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Arizmendi, Mejía Rosana. "Conservation of marine habitat-forming species under climate change: population genetics and demographic responses of the Mediterranean red gorgonian Paramuricea clavata". Doctoral thesis, Universitat de Barcelona, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/10803/350560.
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Climate change, along with other anthropogenic pressures (e.g. water pollution, overfishing and habitat degradation), is severely impacting oceans around the world, producing important changes in its physical and biological structure, and causing marine biodiversity to decline. In this context, the enhancement of conservation and management strategies that mitigate such stressors (e.g. Marine Protected Areas, MPAs) is urgent. In this thesis, we studied the population genetics and ecological responses to warming of the Mediterranean red gorgonian Paramuricea clavata (Risso 1826), in order to contribute to the design of more effective conservation and management measures for this and other similar species. P. clavata is a long-lived, slow-growing, low dispersal and highly vulnerable habitat-forming organism from the coralligenous assemblages. During the last decades, it has been severely impacted by mass mortality events (MME) caused by climate change-related thermal anomalies. P. clavata is essential to maintain biodiversity as it forms habitat for other organisms and it greatly contributes to habitat's biomass and complexity. Although the inclusion of habitat formers in the design of MPAs is fundamental to improve the effectiveness of biodiversity protection, these organisms have been generally neglected in the planning of MPAs, which, instead, have been historically designed for the protection of commercially important species.
In this thesis, we developed an interdisciplinary approach focused on (i) population genetics, emphasizing on evolutionary processes acting over contemporary timescales, and (ii) on demographic responses to warming. First, we compared the functioning of continuous and isolated metapopulations of P. clavata, in terms of spatial genetic structure and underlying evolutionary processes. A group of genetically differentiated populations was detected in a geographically continuous area, indicating that in addition to geographic isolation, genetic isolation should also be considered in the design of MPAs. Genetically isolated metapopulations exhibited significantly lower genetic diversity and higher genetic differentiation compared to continuous metapopulations. Moreover, the influence of drift was higher in isolated metapopulations. These results suggest that isolated metapopulations may be at higher extinction risk than their continuous counterparts. Second, we used an eco-evolutionary approach combining demographic and genetic data to establish conservation priorities in an isolated metapopulation. We demonstrated a relation between partial mortality (caused by MME), effective population size (Ne) and number of alleles that indicated that the less diverse and most isolated demes, which were undergoing the largest effect of drift, were the most affected by MME. These populations should therefore be of high conservation priority. We detected a newly established population, which was also prioritized for conservation, as it was mainly composed by juvenile colonies. Surprisingly, no founder effect was observed, as its genetic diversity was high and colonies came from different populations Third, we experimentally tested the role of reproductive maturity and sex on the vulnerability of the red gorgonian to warming. The highest vulnerability of adults versus juveniles and of females versus males results in a decline of fertilization rates, larval production and recruitment success, suggesting that red gorgonian populations may collapse in a warmer future.
The relevance of our results is discussed in the light of climate change, and several conservation and management strategies that should be implemented to enhance the conservation of P. clavata and its associated communities are proposed. Moreover, this thesis provides valuable information to improve the effectiveness of MPAs within the context of climate change and it strengthen the previous foundations of knowledge that are essential to pursue further research. Given the key role of P. clavata as a habitat former, the results obtained in this work may also serve as guidelines to enhance the protection of other habitat-forming species with similar life history traits.El cambio climático y otras amenazas antrópicas están afectando gravemente la biodiversidad marina. El diseño de medidas de conservación que mitiguen la acción de dichos impactos (e.g. Áreas Marinas Protegidas, AMPs) es, entonces, urgente. Usando un enfoque interdisciplinar, en esta tesis nos enfocamos en la gorgonia mediterránea Paramuricea clavata, con el fin de mejorar las estrategias de gestión y conservación de ésta y otras especies similares. P. clavata es una especie formadora de hábitat del coralígeno, que por presentar una lenta dinámica poblacional y tener una baja capacidad de dispersión, es muy vulnerable a las perturbaciones. Por ejemplo, en las últimas décadas, ha sufrido severas mortalidades masivas causadas por anomalías térmicas relacionadas con el cambio climático. En esta tesis, inicialmente comparamos el funcionamiento de metapoblaciones aisladas o continuas en términos de genética de poblaciones. Se encontró un grupo de poblaciones genéticamente aisladas dentro de una metapoblación geográficamente continua, indicando que el aislamiento genético debe ser clave en el diseño de AMPs. Las metapoblaciones aisladas presentaron una variabilidad y una diferenciación genética significativamente menor y mayor, respectivamente, que las metapoblaciones continuas, así como una influencia significativa de la deriva genética, indicando que las metapoblaciones aisladas pueden ser menos resilientes que las continuas. Luego, utilizamos un enfoque eco-evolutivo para priorizar poblaciones para la conservación en una metapoblación aislada. Las poblaciones menos diversas y más aisladas fueron priorizadas, debido a su mayor mortalidad parcial y al fuerte efecto de la deriva genética. Una población recientemente fundada, compuesta principalmente por juveniles y donde no se detectó un efecto fundador, también se identificó como prioritaria. Por último, evaluamos experimentalmente el efecto de la madurez reproductiva y el sexo en la vulnerabilidad de P. clavata al calentamiento del mar. La mayor vulnerabilidad de los adultos versus los juveniles y de las hembras versus los machos tiene graves consecuencias para la persistencia de esta especie en un futuro con mayor calentamiento, ya que el esfuerzo reproductivo es drásticamente afectado por las altas temperaturas. Esta tesis aporta información valiosa para mejorar la conservación de P. clavata y sus comunidades asociadas, así como para incrementar la efectividad de AMPs.
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Bouiges, Axelle. "Ecologie moléculaire de l’écosystème forestier tropical africain". Thesis, Paris, EPHE, 2015. http://www.theses.fr/2015EPHE3012.
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L’objectif de ce projet est de réaliser l’étude d’écologie moléculaire, non pas d’une espèce isolée, mais d’un groupe fonctionnel. Dans l’écosystème forestier africain, certaines espèces sont caractéristiques de la forêt, d’autres de la savane, et ont connu des phases d’expansion et de régression au cours des changements climatiques du quaternaire. Leur génome a-t-il enregistré un signal commun de l’histoire démographique qui en a résulté ? J’ai travaillé sur 9 espèces du genre Zaprionus (Drosophilidae). J’ai obtenu pour six d’entre elles un jeu de données complet comprenant deux échantillonnages populationnels N=20 (15 dans un cas) pour 10 gènes nucléaires et un gène mitochondrial. J’ai cherché la trace d’expansions démographiques en utilisant le DT de Tajima, le FS de Fu, la distribution mismatch. Avec les horloges moléculaires disponibles, l’histoire démographique de chaque espèce a été explorée par des méthodes bayésiennes sous BEAST (ADN mitochondrial) ou dans un modèle avec recombinaison utilisant FastSimCoal (ADN nucléaire). Cinq espèces d’affinités forestières présentent la signature d’une expansion de population. C’est le cas de Z. aff. proximus, Z. davidi, Z. sepsoides, Z. taronus et Z. vittiger. Une sixième espèce, Z. indianus, semble avoir une histoire démographique plus complexe ce qui serait compatible avec son écologie savanicole. Les délais imposés par la lourdeur des outils numériques disponibles ont limité à ce stade l’exploitation complète de ces données. En conclusion, le génome de toutes les espèces, de savane ou de forêt, porte la signature des changements climatiques passés. Ceci valide les prémisses de notre approche d’une "génomique des écosystèmes"The aim of this project was to carry out a molecular ecology study, not only on a single species, but on a whole functional group. In the africain forest ecosystem, some species are typical of the forest while others are typical of the savanna, and have undergone stages of expansion and regression during Quaternary climate changes. Do their genomes share a common signature of the ensuing demographic history? I worked on nine species from the Zaprionus genus (Drosophilidae). For six species, I was able to gather a complete dataset including two population samples of N=20 (15 in one case) for 10 nuclear genes and one mitochondrial gene. I investigated the signature of population expansion by using Tajima’s DT, Fu’s FS, and the mismatch distribution. The demographic history of each species was investigated using Bayesian methods including BEAST (for mtDNA) and a recombination model using FastSimCoal (for nuclear DNA), with available molecular clocks. Five forest-dwelling species show the signature of a population expansion: Z. aff. proximus, Z. davidi, Z. sepsoides, Z. taronus et Z. vittiger. A sixth species, Z. indianus, shows a more complex history in agreement with its dependence on savanna. The completion of the analysis of the whole dataset was precluded by the time-consuming numerical procedures involved. To conclude, the genome of all of these species – either form savanna of from the forest – shows the signature of past climatic changes, thus validating an "ecosystem genomics" approach
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Silangwa, Florian Sanya Chisawani [Verfasser], i Michael [Gutachter] Bollig. "Migration and demographic changes. Its implications on land transformation and changing socio-economic development in the Lake Eyasi Basin in Karatu District, Tanzania / Florian Sanya Chisawani Silangwa ; Gutachter: Michael Bollig". Köln : Universitäts- und Stadtbibliothek Köln, 2012. http://d-nb.info/1165772817/34.
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Boscardin, Mariele. "Reprodução social da agricultura familiar : uma análise demográfica em propriedades familiares sem sucessores no município de Frederico Westphalen, RS". reponame:Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações da UFRGS, 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/10183/172431.
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Tradicionalmente, a reprodução social da agricultura familiar está largamente assentada na permanência de, pelo menos, um dos filhos na condução das propriedades rurais familiares, materializando-se assim o processo sucessório. Atualmente e por razões variadas, dentre as quais se destaca o distanciamento dos jovens rurais das atividades agrícolas e a busca por outras estratégias laborais, além é claro de mais instrução formal, as famílias estão tendo dificuldades para concretizar a sucessão das propriedades, uma vez que os filhos adotam a migração enquanto estratégia de inserção no meio urbano. Somada a migração, as perspectivas sucessórias tornam-se ainda mais restritas devido a redução no número de filhos entre as famílias. Com isso, o modelo sucessório, padrão e uniforme, estabelecido na agricultura familiar e amplamente estudado e difundido pela literatura especializada parece não mais prevalecer, sinalizando-se assim uma espécie de novo padrão sucessório, embora com contornos ainda não muito claros. Ocorre que a ausência de sucessores faz com que o destino das propriedades se torne um problema social relevante entre os agricultores familiares, causando preocupação entre os pais, mas algo pouco evidente entre os filhos. Diante disso, o presente estudo teve como objetivo principal investigar em que medida as mudanças demográficas mais gerais afetam a reprodução da agricultura familiar no município de Frederico Westphalen/RS, especialmente em relação às propriedades familiares sem sucessores na medida em que estes representariam com maior fidedignidade alguns dos entraves à reprodução social da agricultura familiar. Com o intuito de atender ao objetivo proposto, o estudo foi realizado no município de Frederico Westphalen, região norte do estado do Rio Grande do Sul, uma das muitas regiões historicamente caracterizadas pela ampla presença de agricultores familiares. Foram entrevistados 23 agricultores familiares sem sucessores no período Janeiro a Abril de 2016. Os agricultores foram amostrados intencionalmente, distribuídos entre as diversas áreas agrícolas do município, tratando-se, portanto, de uma amostra não estatística, direcionada aos agricultores familiares sem sucessores, conceito este desenvolvido ao longo da dissertação. Na percepção dos agricultores, são diversos os motivos que levam os jovens a não desejar permanecer no meio rural e na agricultura. Além do acesso aos ensinos médio e superior, bem como oportunidades mais promissoras de trabalho no meio urbano, os jovens migram em busca de possibilidades de obtenção de renda própria, de autonomia para exercer atividades independentes dos pais, de redução da penosidade do trabalho, entre outros aspectos. De modo geral, os resultados apontaram que apesar de haver um aumento na “carga” de trabalho realizado pelos pais a partir da saída dos filhos das propriedades familiares devido a menor disponibilidade de mão de obra, não houve alterações nas dinâmicas produtivas no curto prazo, ou seja, as mudanças tendem a ocorrer ao longo do tempo. Nestes termos, essas mudanças são amplamente impactadas pela aposentadoria rural e pelas restrições de ordem física que acometem os pais em virtude da idade avançada. O fato é que a migração dos filhos se dá, quase que exclusivamente, no momento em que os pais ainda apresentam boas condições físicas de trabalho. Por isso o abandono das atividades rurais pelos agricultores somente acontece mais tarde Embora os dados da pesquisa apontem que, no momento da realização do presente estudo, não há desejo e intensão por parte dos agricultores em deixar suas propriedades rurais, não fica totalmente descartada a hipótese de que por algumas razões estes agricultores futuramente possam migrar para o meio urbano. Contudo, os agricultores pretendem permanecer no meio rural até “o limite de suas forças” devido ao apego às propriedades e a vida construída no meio rural. No entanto, os agricultores têm clareza de que em casos de problemas de saúde ou de falecimento de um dos dois cônjuges, a única alternativa, mesmo que contra vontade, será deixar o meio rural e suas propriedades para residir próximo ou junto dos filhos, tendo em vista que os filhos não retornarão. Assim, o destino das propriedades torna-se motivo de preocupação entre os agricultores. São registradas distintas situações ou encaminhamentos que levam em consideração deixar a propriedade para os filhos como herança ou vender a propriedade. No primeiro caso, os pais optam por deixar a terra como herança aos filhos, mesmo sabendo que estes não pretendem retornar a propriedade. Além disso, o amparo na velhice também é razão de incertezas entre os agricultores familiares; se no passado cabia ao sucessor o cuidado com os pais, recebendo a terra como recompensa, hoje a situação é outra. Possibilita-se serem amparados pelos filhos ou, caso contrário, amparados por terceiros, pagando por estes cuidados. De modo geral, os resultados obtidos confirmam a desestruturação de um padrão sucessório que prevalecia nas antigas gerações, revelando ainda, a existência, mesmo que em construção, de um novo padrão sucessório entre os agricultores familiares, agora sustentado na ideia de que haveria herdeiros, mas não necessariamente sucessores.Traditionally, the social reproduction of family farming is largely based on the permanence of at least one of the children in the running of family farms, thus materializing the succession process. Nowadays, for a variety of reasons, such as the distancing of rural youth from agricultural activities and the search for other labor strategies, and of course more formal education, families are having difficulties to complete the succession of properties, since The children adopt the migration as a strategy of insertion in the urban environment. In addition to migration, succession prospects are further constrained by the reduction in the number of children among families. Thus, the standard and uniform succession model, established in family agriculture and widely studied and disseminated in the specialized literature, seems no longer to prevail, signaling a kind of new inheritance pattern, although with not yet clear contours. It happens that the absence of successors makes that the destiny of the properties becomes a relevant social problem among the familiar farmers, causing concern among the parents, but something little evident between the children. The main objective of this study was to investigate the extent to which the most general demographic changes affect the reproduction of family farms in the municipality of Frederico Westphalen / RS, especially in relation to family properties without successors, insofar as they would represent with greater reliability Some of the obstacles to the social reproduction of family farming. The study was carried out in the municipality of Frederico Westphalen, in the northern region of the state of Rio Grande do Sul, one of the many regions historically characterized by the large presence of family farmers. Twenty-three family farmers without successors were interviewed between January and April 2016. Farmers were intentionally sampled, distributed among the various agricultural areas of the municipality, thus being a non-statistical sample, aimed at family farmers without successors, concept Developed throughout the dissertation. In the perception of farmers, there are several reasons why young people do not want to stay in rural areas and in agriculture. In addition to access to higher and higher education, as well as more promising opportunities for work in the urban environment, young people migrate in search of opportunities to earn their own income, autonomy to carry out activities independent of their parents, reduction of labor pain, among Other aspects. In general, the results pointed out that although there was an increase in the "load" of work performed by the parents after leaving the children of the family farms due to less labor availability, there were no changes in the productive dynamics in the short term, That is, changes tend to occur over time. In these terms, these changes are largely impacted by rural retirement and physical restraints that affect parents because of their old age. The fact is that the migration of the children occurs, almost exclusively, at the moment in which the parents still present good physical conditions of work. For this reason the abandonment of the rural activities by the farmers only happens later. Although the research data indicate that, at the time of the present study, there is no desire and intention on the part of the farmers to leave their rural properties, it is not completely ruled out that for some reasons these farmers may migrate to the environment in the future urban. However, farmers intend to stay in rural areas "to the limit of their strength" due to their attachment to property and rural life. However, farmers are clear that in cases of health problems or the death of one of the two spouses, the only alternative, even unwillingly, is to leave the rural environment and their property to live near or In view that the children will not return. Thus, the fate of the properties becomes a matter of concern among farmers. There are different situations or referrals that take into account leaving the property to the children as an inheritance or selling the property. In the first case, the parents choose to leave the land as an inheritance to their children, even though they do not intend to return the property. In addition, shelter in old age is also a reason for uncertainty among family farmers; If in the past it was up to the successor to care for the parents, receiving the land as a reward, today the situation is different. It is possible to be supported by the children or, otherwise, supported by third parties, paying for these care. The results obtained, in general, confirm the destructuring of an inheritance pattern that prevailed in the old generations, also revealing the existence, even under construction, of a new succession pattern among family farmers, now supported by the idea that there would be heirs, but not necessarily successors.
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Kinoshita, Futoshi. "Population and household change of a Japanese village, 1760-1870". Diss., The University of Arizona, 1989. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/184818.
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This dissertation is an analysis of population and households of a village in Northeast Japan, using historical documents from the period between 1760 and 1870. The population of the village increased 1.73-fold in 110 years with the average growth rate of 0.50 per cent per annum. In general, the population shifted from a low pressure regime characterized by relatively low fertility and low mortality to a high pressure regime with high fertility and high mortality. Fertility was found to be the driving force of the population growth, but high mortality slowed down the growth between 1800 and 1835. Migration played only a minor role. However, migration made a significant impact on the population growth through fertility by changing the nature of service. The increase in fertility resulted mainly from changes in marital fertility rather than changes in nuptiality. The most important factor contributing to the increase in marital fertility was the transformation of labor from servants with yearly contracts to day laborers which increased couple's exposure to the risk of childbearing by affecting coital frequency. In addition, increased employment opportunities and improved wages, which were brought about by the development of market economy and small-scale industry centering around a highly profitable cash crop, safflower, had a positive effect on marital fertility. The number of households increased 1.50-fold throughout the period. An increase in the number of lower class households was solely responsible for the increase in the number of households of the village. The mean household size rose from 4.8 to 5.6. The household size was positively associated with socio-economic status. As in the case of fertility, increased employment opportunities and improved wages were primarily responsible for the increase in the number of households and in the household size. Namely, the increased employment opportunities and improved wages made peasants, especially those of the lower class, less dependent on land, and allowed them to establish new branch households more easily. The most frequently-encountered household types were simple and multiple family households, the two types combined accounting for over 70 per cent of all households of the village. The proportion of multiple family households increased throughout the period, whereas the proportion of simple family households declined.
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Grafeneder-Weissteiner, Theresa. "Demographic change, growth and agglomeration". Department of Economics, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business, 2010. http://epub.wu.ac.at/902/1/document.pdf.
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This article presents a framework within which the effects of demographic change on both agglomeration and growth of economic activities can be analyzed. I introduce an overlapping generation structure into a New Economic Geography model with endogenous growth due to learning spillovers and focus on the effects of demographic structures on long-run equilibrium outcomes and stability properties. First, life-time uncertainty is shown to decrease long-run economic growth perspectives. In doing so, it also mitigates the pro-growth effects of agglomeration resulting from the localized nature of learning externalities. Second, the turnover of generations acts as a dispersion force whose anti-agglomerative effects are, however, dampened by the growth-linked circular causality being present as long as interregional knowledge spillovers are not perfect. Finally, lifetime uncertainty also reduces the possibility that agglomeration is the result of a self-fulfilling prophecy. (author's abstract)Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Series
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Paškonytė, Jūratė. "Demografiniai pokyčiai Šiaurės Lietuvoje I tūkstantmečio antroje pusėje (pagal kapinynų medžiagą)". Bachelor's thesis, Lithuanian Academic Libraries Network (LABT), 2012. http://vddb.laba.lt/obj/LT-eLABa-0001:E.02~2012~D_20120619_134244-24641.
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Lietuvos archeologiniuose tyrimuose iki pastarojo laiko didžiausias dėmesys buvo skiriamas materialinei ir dvasinei kultūrai. Paskutiniaisiais metais pradėta daugiau domėtis socialiniais ir demografiniais procesais, kuriuos geriausiai atspindi laidojimo paminklų duomenys. Tokius tyrimus apsunkina medžiagos fragmentiškumas, todėl tyrinėjamos temos chronologinės bei teritorinės ribos yra plačios.Until recently in Lithuanian archaeological researches the biggest attention was paid to the material and spiritual culture. In recent years, the interest is growing in social and demographic processes which are reflected by burial data. The researches are aggravated because of material fragmentation, consequently chronological and territorial margins of topic explored are wide. Not all cemeteries and data of them allow to draw conclusions.
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Widerberg, Annie, i Matilda Hjalte. "En plats för livet : En jämförande fallstudie om hur två kommuner hanterar de demografiska förändringarna". Thesis, Linköpings universitet, Nationalekonomi, 2015. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-121552.
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Det råder stora ojämlikheter mellan Sveriges kommuner. Dessa ojämlikheter mynnar ut i tvåtrender som råder i många mindre kommuner: befolkningen åldras och urbaniseringsgradenökar. Urbaniseringsgraden har gjort att mindre kommuner har ett försämrat ekonomiskt lägreoch många kommuner står inför valet att antingen höja skatten eller reducera den kommunalaservicen. I denna uppsats kartlägger vi genom ekonomiska begrepp hur två medelstorakommuner har hanterat den demografiska utvecklingen samt vad kommunerna bör fokuserapå för att öka sin attraktivitet.Utifrån de demografiska nyckeltal som studerats kommer vi fram till att mycket av deekonomiska svårigheter som uppkom på 1970-talet lever kvar än idag hos många kommuner.De har hamnat i en negativ spiral som är svår att ta sig ur. Kommuner som å andra sidanklarat sig bättre ur krisen har haft ett bättre ekonomiskt utgångsläge. Det finns även ett tydligtsamband mellan en bra integration av så kallade outsiders och de kommunala finanserna.Uppsatsen tydliggör att en god arbetsmarknad, attraktiva bostäder och bra kommersiellt utbudär avgörande för en kommuns attraktivitet.Currently there are big differences between municipalities in Sweden. These differences leadto two dissimilar tendencies: the population is aging and the degree of urbanisation increases.The urbanisation has set several smaller municipalities in a severe economic situation and alot of municipalities are facing to either raise the local tax or reduce the public service. In thispaper the authors’ research through economic concepts how two medium sized municipalitieshave handled the demographic changes and what the municipalities should do in order toincrease their attractiveness.The findings of this study indicate that the demographic changes, to a large extent, dependson previous recessions in the municipalities which still is causing an unbalanced economy.The municipalities are facing a downward spiral that is hard to emerge from. On the otherhand some municipalities managed the recessions in a more successful way and are nowfacing a more positive economic position. Further, there is a clear correlation between a wellfunctioningintegration on the labour market and public finances. The result of the paper alsoshows that a well-functioning labour market, housing market and commercial supplydetermines municipalities’ attractiveness.
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Dybczak, Kamil. "Vliv demografických změn na reálnou úrokovou míru a kapitálové toky". Doctoral thesis, Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, 2003. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-77139.
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The demographic structure seems to change dramatically over the next 50 years in the Czech Republic. The aim of this study is to assess the impact of expected demographic changes on the future development of a real interest rate and international capital flows. In order to simulate the impact of the expected demographic changes upon the mentioned variables we apply a computable overlapping generations model. The real interest rate development is simulated under a closed economy assumption. As a result of the future expected demographic changes labour-capital ratio tends to fall, i.e. the real interest rate diminishes. The range of a change is significantly affected by a public budget closure rule. In case of an endogenous income tax rate, the real interest rate falls down by 0.5 percentage point. On the contrary, the real interest rate decreases by almost 1 percentage point in case when public transfers adjusted. Assuming an open economy, we simulate the impact of the expected demographic changes on the international capital flows between the domestic economy and the rest of the world. In case of increasing ratio of older agents, the aggregate domestic wealth surpasses the demand for capital by domestic firms. As a result a part of domestic capital is exported abroad. Increasing level of net foreign assets contributes to positive change in ratio of the balance of payment to the domestic production in a range from 2 to 5 percentage points over next 40 years if income taxes or public transfers change respectively.
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Ilgin, Yasemin. "Health care expenditures, innovation, and demographic change". Frankfurt, M. Berlin Bern Bruxelles New York, NY Oxford Wien Lang, 2007. http://d-nb.info/989527727/04.
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Mishra, Tapas K. "Dynamics of demographic change and economic development /". Louvain-la-Neuve : Univ. Catholique de Louvain, 2006. http://www.gbv.de/dms/zbw/543458008.pdf.
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Eberly, Grace Eberly. "New Vrindaban: Pilgrimage, Patronage, and Demographic Change". Ohio University Art and Sciences Honors Theses / OhioLINK, 2016. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=ouashonors1461696886.
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Lancia, Francesco <1979>. "Demographic change, intergenerational conflict and economic growth". Doctoral thesis, Alma Mater Studiorum - Università di Bologna, 2010. http://amsdottorato.unibo.it/2570/1/lancia_francesco_Demographic_Change%2C_Intergenerational_Conflict_and_Economic_Growth.pdf.
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Lancia, Francesco <1979>. "Demographic change, intergenerational conflict and economic growth". Doctoral thesis, Alma Mater Studiorum - Università di Bologna, 2010. http://amsdottorato.unibo.it/2570/.
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Hillebrand, Marten. "Pension systems, demographic change, and the stock market". Berlin : Springer, 2008. http://site.ebrary.com/id/10253830.
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Edmeades, Jeffrey D. Entwisle Barbara. "Development and demographic change in Nang Rong, Thailand". Chapel Hill, N.C. : University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, 2006. http://dc.lib.unc.edu/u?/etd,169.
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Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, 2006.Title from electronic title page (viewed Oct. 10, 2007). "... in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in the Department of Sociology." Discipline: Sociology; Department/School: Sociology.
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Omtzigt, Dirk-Jan. "Demographic Change, Individual Decision Making and Policy Options". Thesis, University of Oxford, 2008. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.504152.
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Watts, Sylvia. "The small market town in the large multi-township parish : Shifnal, Wellington, Wem and Whitchurch c.1535-c.1660". Thesis, University of Wolverhampton, 1995. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.282451.
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Montén, Anna. "The provision of local public goods and demographic change". Doctoral thesis, Saechsische Landesbibliothek- Staats- und Universitaetsbibliothek Dresden, 2012. http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bsz:14-qucosa-88933.
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The main contribution of this thesis is a comprehensive analysis of the influence of changes in the population structure on local communities, in particular with respect to the provision of publicly provided goods. The focus is placed on the consequences of two of the major processes of demographic change, namely aging and shrinking. The three main chapters of this contribution consider the effects at the local level from both a theoretical and an empirical perspective. The first model focuses on the influence of population aging on the provision of local publicly provided goods, when the young population may relocate. When aging advances, gerontocracies and social planners substitute publicly provided goods aimed at the mobile young for publicly provided goods for the elderly. However, due to fiscal competition, gerontocracies will provide even more of the publicly provided good for the young than the social planner. The second model considers in a two-period setting, the interaction of a shrinking population when the investments made by the previous generation are long lived. The laissez-faire and welfare maximizing outcomes are computed for two cases; first with no costs of upkeep and second for the case when costs of upkeep accrue. A comparison of the solutions shows that public provision for the first generation is inefficiently low in laissez-faire when there are no costs of upkeep. However, if costs of upkeep accrue, the laissez-faire outcome for the intergenerational publicly provided good may be too high. Chapter four contains an empirical analysis. In a two-stage analysis the efficiency of the provision of child care services in municipalities is evaluated in the German State of Saxony. First, the results of the Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) show substantial efficiency differences; the median municipality is up to 28% inefficient. In a second stage bootstrapped truncated regression, determinants of the inefficiency are identified. Explanatory variables such as an uncompensated mayor or a larger share of over 65-year-olds significantly increase inefficiency.
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Marfany, Julie Esther. "Proto-industrialisation and demographic change in Catalonia, 1680-1829". Thesis, University of Cambridge, 2004. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.615894.
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Ludwig, Alexander. "The Macroeconomics of Demographic Change - Essays on Economic Modelling". [S.l. : s.n.], 2005. http://www.bsz-bw.de/cgi-bin/xvms.cgi?SWB11947808.
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Pifarré, i. Arolas Héctor. "Essays in Health and Demographic Economics". Thesis, Toulouse 1, 2015. http://www.theses.fr/2015TOU10024/document.
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Le résumé en français n'a pas été communiqué par l'auteurThis dissertation consists of four essays on health and demographic economics. In the first chapter, I explore the implementation of the theory of equality of opportunity (EOp) developed by Roemer (1998) to health in a joint work with Guillem Lopez and Frederic Udina. A common impediment to the achievement of EOp applications with given resources constraints is that it is unlikely that public policies can fully compensate for existing unfair inequalities. This scenario is particularly relevant in the case of health policy, where public spending coexists with a large private spending component. We argue that if social justice is not attainable, social deliberation should not only focus on choosing the circumstances that ought to be compensated but also reflect on which groups suffering unfair inequalities should be prioritized. The second chapter examines the impact of income-related reporting heterogeneity on the measurement of health inequality. While most studies of health inequality rely on self-reported measures of health, recent research has studied the possibility that part of the existing differences in self-reported health could be due to systematic differences in reporting across socioeconomic groups. The concern is that part of the existing inequalities may not be founded on differences in the “true” health status of individuals. In particular, some studies have concluded that reliance on self-reported health might have resulted in an overstatement on the degree of health inequality of some countries. I study the income-related reporting heterogeneity hypothesis in the 2006 wave of the Catalan Survey of Health and I find that the main contributor to health inequality is the disproportionate concentration of the prevalence of reported conditions in lower income groups. The third chapter, joint with Hippolyte d'Albis and Loesse Jacques Esso, studies the trends in mortality convergence across developed countries from 1960 to 2008. While the epidemiological transition has provided a theory behind the expectation of convergence in mortality patterns, our results reject the convergence hypothesis for a sample of industrialized countries. We study the disparities across the mortality distributions of the countries and our sample and find no evidence of convergence towards a common mortality distribution.The fourth and final chapter of this dissertation examines the relationship between unemployment and fertility. I offer a possible explanation for the apparent contradiction between the empirical work that finds a negative relationship between unemployment and fertility and the theoretical work that emphasizes the lower opportunity cost of childbearing while unemployed. I reconcile these perspectives by distinguishing two forms of unemployment. The first form is structural unemployment while the second is cyclical unemployment, a less permanent component of unemployment that is linked to the economic cycle. I study both effects over the life cycle using cohort data on a panel of developed countries. I find that while structural unemployment has an unambiguous negative effect on fertility, reactions to cyclical unemployment depend on the age at which it is experienced
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Zanamwe, Lazarus. "Population change and socio-economic development in Zimbabwe". Thesis, University of Leeds, 1989. http://etheses.whiterose.ac.uk/457/.
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It is a commonly held theory that population is related to levels of social and economic development within a given country or society. The work of Becker in the early 1960s gave much impetus to studies of the relationship between fertility, mortality and migration, on the one hand and their determinants, on the other. The determinants were seen as the social, economic, political and cultural settings of the countries or socities under study. The thesis attempts to apply this theory in relation to the demographic development of Zimbabwe. The thesis postulates that socio-economic differentials within Zimbabwe are sufficiently pronounced as to begin to affect the demographic structure of the country. It is with this in mind that three objectives are set for the thesis: a) the exploration of the demographic structure of the population of Zimbabwe, as a means of furthering the understanding of the nature of the demographic development of the country; b) the development and utilization of data estimation techniques as a means of overcoming the deficiencies in the data collected from official sources; and, c) the investigation of the link between population change, on the one hand, with social and economic development on the other. The hypothesis proceeds through the examination of such social and economic variables as income, education, health and other social indicators in relation to fertility, migration and mortality. Due to the inadequacy of data on the demographic variables, the thesis estimates such data using the recognized relationships among the demographic variables. The estimated demographic measures are subjected to correlation and regression analysis after the development structure of the country has been explored through factor and cluster analysis. Three geographical scales are used in the analyses viz. the province, the district and the local authority area. Use of the three geographical scales exposes the dangers of extrapolating and generalizing national patterns of demographic, social and economic development to the levels of the district and the local authority, as well as exposing different features of the development profile of the country of Zimbabwe. The thesis concludes that there is a differentiation in the demographic profile of the various geographical regions of the country, based on inequitable distribution of resources in the past when the country was under white settler colonial rule. The advent of independence and the introduction of policies designed to reduce such inequalities had not had time to work by the time the 1982 Census, from whose data the study is based, was taken. The thesis therefore recommends that further censuses are required if the effect of such policies are to be measured. It further recommends the use of cross-temporal instead of the cross-sectional data which was applied in this study.
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Erawan, Sukma Dewi. "Demographic Change Macroeconomics Impact and Relative Equilibrium Bias of Technology /". St. Gallen, 2009. http://www.biblio.unisg.ch/org/biblio/edoc.nsf/wwwDisplayIdentifier/06612550001/$FILE/06612550001.pdf.
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Nowack, Martin. "Possibilities of scenario planning for sanitation organizations facing demographic change". Doctoral thesis, Saechsische Landesbibliothek- Staats- und Universitaetsbibliothek Dresden, 2013. http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bsz:14-qucosa-98554.
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Der Abwassersektor in Deutschland sieht sich mit zunehmend turbulentem Umfeld konfrontiert. Auf Grund der langen Nutzungsdauer ihrer Infrastruktur und ihrer Kapitalintensität ist die Abwasserwirtschaft durch hohe Fixkosten und durch ihre Anfälligkeit gegenüber Pfadabhängigkeiten charakterisiert. Dies zeigt sich besonders im Zusammenhang mit den Auswirkungen des demografischen Wandels in den letzten Jahren, in Folge dessen abnehmende Bevölkerungszahlen zu einem Verlust von Gebührenzahlern geführt haben. Zusätzlich wurde dieser Effekt durch einen beträchtlichen Rückgang der Wassernachfrage pro Kopf verstärkt. Die herkömmlichen Planungsansätze in der Siedlungsentwässerung basieren hauptsächlich auf Prognosen und Trendfortschreibungen und berücksichtigen somit nur unzureichend sich ändernde Rahmenbedingungen. Aus diesem Grund untersucht diese Dissertation inwiefern die geringe Anpassungsfähigkeit, die im Zusammenhang mit dem demografischen Wandel offensichtlich wurde, durch eine Stärkung der strategischen Planungskompetenzen, und speziell durch die Anwendung der Szenarioplanung, erhöht werden kann. Hierfür werden sowohl die prediktiven als auch die explorative Möglichkeiten der Szenarioplanung bewertet. Im ersten prediktiven Ansatz liegt der Fokus auf den spezifischen Auswirkungen des demografischen Wandels auf die Abwassergebühren. Der zweite explorative Ansatz basiert auf einer Kombination der Delphi-Technik mit der Szenarioplanung, in der die bedeutendsten zukünftigen Herausforderungen identifiziert und in vier Szenarien zusammengefasst werdenThe sanitation sector in Germany is challenged by an increasingly turbulent environment. Due to the long use-life of the infrastructure and its capital intensity, the sector is characterized by low rates of return, high fixed-costs and vulnerability to path dependency. This became particularly obvious in the last years within the context of demographic change, when a decreasing population led to the loss of fee payers, and was intensified by a considerable decline in the water demand per capita, which caused increasing wastewater fees. The traditional planning instruments in the sanitation sector rely mainly on forecasts and forward projections, while disregarding key dynamics of the surrounding political-legal, economic, societal, technological and environmental framework conditions. Therefore, this dissertation assesses if the low adaptive capacity of the sanitation sector, which became obvious with demographic change, can be enhanced by strengthening the long range planning competencies by means of scenario planning. The dissertation evaluates the possibilities of scenario planning as alternative planning instrument and explores the predictive as well as the explorative possibilities in two separate research streams. The predictive research stream analyzes the specific impacts of demographic change on wastewater fees. The focus lies on a short time horizon and one specific trend. The latter explorative research stream is addressed by a Delphi-based scenario study, in which the most relevant future challenges of the sanitation sector are identified and summarized in four scenarios