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Santos, Rafael Chaves. "Essays on international finance, default and inflation". reponame:Repositório Institucional do FGV, 2006. http://hdl.handle.net/10438/1049.
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Previous issue date: 2006-12-21This thesis is composed by three papers, each one of them corresponding to one chapter. The first and the second chapters are essays on international finance appraising default and inflation as equilibrium outcomes for crisis time, in particular, for confidence crisis time that leads to speculative attack on the external public debt issued by emerging economies. With this background in mind, welfare effects from adopting common currency (chapter 1) and welfare effects from increasing the degree of economic openness (chapter 2) are analyzed in numerical exercises, based on DSGE framework. Cross-countries results obtained are then presented to be compared with empirical evidence and to help on understanding past policy decisions. Some policy prescriptions are also suggested. In the third chapter we look to the inflation targeting regime applied to emerging economies that are subject to adverse shocks, like the external debt crisis presented in the previous chapters. Based on a more theoretical approach, we appraise how pre commitment framework should be used to coordinate expectations when policymaker announcement has no full credibility and self fulfilling inflation may be possible.
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Van, Jaarsveldt Cole. "Modelling probabilities of corporate default". Master's thesis, Faculty of Commerce, 2019. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/31331.
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This dissertation follows, scrupulously, the probability of default model used by the National University of Singapore Risk Management Institute (NUS-RMI). Any deviations or omissions are noted with reasons related to the scope of this study on modelling probabilities of corporate default of South African firms. Using our model, we simulate defaults and subsequently, infer parameters using classical statistical frequentist likelihood estimation and one-world-view pseudo-likelihood estimation. We improve the initial estimates from our pseudo-likelihood estimation by using Sequential Monte Carlo techniques and pseudo-Bayesian inference. With these techniques, we significantly improve upon our original parameter estimates. The increase in accuracy is most significant when using few samples which mimics real world data availability
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Zhang, Jie. "Modelling examples of loss given default and probability of default". Thesis, University of Southampton, 2011. https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/172581/.
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The Basel II accord regulates risk and capital management requirements to ensure that a bank holds enough capital proportional to the exposed risk of its lending practices. Under the advanced internal ratings based (IRB) approach, Basel II allows banks to develop their own empirical models based on historical data for probability of default (PD), loss given default (LGD) and exposure at default (EAD). This thesis looks at some examples of modelling LGD and PD. One part of this thesis investigates modelling LGD for unsecured personal loans. LGD is estimated through estimating Recovery Rate (RR, RR=1-LGD). Firstly, the research examines whether it is better to estimate RR or Recovery Amounts. Linear regression and survival analysis models are built and compared when modelling RR and Recovery Amount, so as to predict LGD. Secondly, mixture distribution models are developed based on linear regression and survival analysis approaches. A comparison between single distribution models and mixture distribution models is made and their advantages and disadvantages are discussed. Thirdly, it is examined whether short-term recovery information is helpful in modelling final RR. It is found that early payment patterns and short-term RR after default are very significant variables in final RR prediction models. Thus, two-stage models are built. In the stage-one model short-term Recoveries are predicted, and then the predicted short-term Recoveries are used in the final RR prediction models. Fourthly, macroeconomic variables are added in both the short-term Recoveries models and final RR models, and the influences of macroeconomic environment on estimating RR are looked at. The other part of this thesis looks at PD modelling. One area where there is little literature of PD modelling is in invoice discounting, where a bank lends a company a proportion of the amount it has invoiced its customers in exchange for receiving the cash flow from these invoices. Default here means that the invoicing company defaults, at which point the bank cannot collect on the invoices. Like other small firms, the economic conditions affect the default risk of invoicing companies. The aim of this research is to develop estimates of default that incorporate the details of the firm, the current and past position concerning the invoices, and also economic variables.
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Guo, Biao. "Essays on credit default swaps". Thesis, University of Nottingham, 2013. http://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/13101/.
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This thesis is structured to research on a financial derivative asset known as a credit default swap (CDS). A CDS is a contract in which the buyer of protection makes a series of payments (often referred to as CDS spreads) to the protection seller and, in exchange, receives a payoff if a default event occurs. A default event can be defined in several ways, including failure to pay, restructuring or rescheduling of debt, credit event repudiation, moratorium and acceleration. The main motivation of my PhD thesis is to investigate the determinants of the changes of CDS spreads and to model the evolution of spreads. Two widely traded types are corporate and sovereign CDS contracts, the first has as its underlying asset a corporate bond and, hence, hedges against the default risk of a company; the second type hedges against the default risk of a sovereign country. The two contract types have different risk profiles; for example, it is known that liquidity premium with different maturity varies significantly for a corporate CDS but less so for a sovereign CDS because, in contrast with the corporate markets where a majority of the trading volume is concentrated on the 5-year CDS, the sovereign market has a more uniform trading volume across maturities. In light of the difference, this thesis is divided into four parts. Part A introduces the motivation and research questions of this thesis, followed by literature review on debt valuation, with emphasis on default and liquidity spreads modelling. Part B aims at the role liquidity risk plays in explaining the changes in corporate CDS spreads. Part C models sovereign CDS spreads with macro and latent factors in a no-arbitrage framework. Part D concludes this thesis with a list of limitations and further research direction.
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Wang, Qian Sarah, i 王倩. "The real effects of credit default swaps". Thesis, The University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong), 2012. http://hub.hku.hk/bib/B48329575.
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In recent years, concerns have been raised about the real effects of credit default swaps (CDS) on the economy. Different from the hitherto accepted view that derivatives are redundant, CDS may affect the credit risk and strategic liquidity decision of the reference entities. In this dissertation, I use a unique, comprehensive sample covering 901 CDS introductions on North American corporate issuers, between June 1997 and April 2009, to address these questions.
In chapter 2, I investigate whether CDS trading increases the credit risk of the reference entities. I find that the probability of both a credit rating downgrade and bankruptcy increase after the inception of CDS trading. This finding is robust to controlling for the endogeneity of CDS trading in difference-in-difference analysis, propensity score matching, and treatment regressions with instruments. In further corroboration of our basic results, I explore the mechanism behind the increased credit risk after CDS trading, and show that firms with relatively larger amounts of CDS contracts outstanding, and those with more “no restructuring” contracts, are more adversely affected by CDS trading.
In chapter 3, I further investigate the effect of CDS on corporate cash holding policies. U.S. firms are holding more cash than at any time in nearly half a century. I find that CDS trading affects corporate cash holdings. Corporate cash holdings increase after the inception of CDS trading. The impact is significant after controlling for the endogeneity of CDS trading. Moreover, cash-to-assets ratios for firms with larger CDS contracts outstanding, and those with less access to financial market are more affected by CDS trading. The impact of CDS is beyond the direct effect of line of credit on cash holdings.published_or_final_version
Economics and Finance
Doctoral
Doctor of Philosophy
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Levy, Ariel. "Essays on credit default swaps". Diss., Restricted to subscribing institutions, 2009. http://proquest.umi.com/pqdweb?did=1872060451&sid=3&Fmt=2&clientId=1564&RQT=309&VName=PQD.
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Shan, Chenyu, i 陜晨煜. "Credit default swaps (CDS) and loan financing". Thesis, The University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong), 2013. http://hub.hku.hk/bib/B5089965X.
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As evidenced by its market size, credit default swaps (CDSs) has been the cornerstone product of the credit derivatives market. The central question that I attempt to answer in this thesis is: why and how does the introduction of CDS market affect bank loan financing? Theoretical works predict some potential effects from CDS market, but empirical evidence is still rare.
This dissertation empirically examines the effects of CDS trading on bank loan financing. In chapter one, I find that banks increase average loan amount and charge higher loan spread after the onset of CDS trading on the borrower’s debt. Also, credit quality of the borrower deteriorates for those with active CDS trading. These findings suggest that banks tend to take on more credit risk by issuing larger loans and by lending to riskier firms that could not obtain bank loan in the absence of CDS. The risk-taking by banks ultimately transmitted to higher bank-level risk profile.
The second chapter is the first empirical study of CDS’ role in determining loan syndicate structure. I find larger lead bank share when CDS is in place. Moreover, participation of credit derivatives trading by lead banks is much larger than by the participants, suggesting that lead banks have better chance to use CDS to their own advantage. Further analysis shows that lead banks retain an even larger share when it is more experienced dealing with the borrower and when information asymmetry between the lender and the borrower is less severe. Different from conventional wisdom about moral hazard in syndicated lending, our findings suggest that the lead bank likely takes on more credit risk voluntarily due to its increased financing capacity.
The third chapter focuses on the effects of CDS on debt contracting. Given that current evidence does not show CDS reduces average cost of debt, we conjecture that the diversification benefit is reflected by relaxation of restrictions imposed on borrowers. Consistent with our hypothesis, we find the marginal effect from CDS trading on covenant strictness measure is 16.8% on average. One standard deviation increase in the number of outstanding CDS contracts loosens net worth covenants by approximately 8.9%. Using various endogeneity controls, we are able to show the loosening of covenants is due to the reduced level of debtholder-shareholder conflict. Furthermore, the loosening effect is stronger when the expected renegotiation cost is larger, consistent with the view that CDS mitigates contracting friction and improves contracting efficiency.
Overall, this dissertation attempts to provide first empirical evidence on how CDS affects bank loan financing. We focus the analysis on loan issuance, syndicate structure and contracting. The findings suggest that banks lend to riskier borrowers in the presence of CDS. On a positive note, banks tend to impose less restrictive covenants on its borrower, which may mitigate frictions in lending market in terms of ex ante bargaining and ex post renegotiation cost.published_or_final_version
Economics and Finance
Doctoral
Doctor of Philosophy
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Scott, Robert H. Sturgeon James I. "The determinants of default on credit card debt". Diss., UMK access, 2005.
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Thesis (Ph. D.)--Dept. of Economics. University of Missouri--Kansas City, 2005."A dissertation in economics and social science consortium." Advisor: James I. Sturgeon. Typescript. Vita. Title from "catalog record" of the print edition Description based on contents viewed June 26, 2006. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 149-161 ). Online version of the print edition.
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Kooverjee, Jateen. "Estimating credit default swap spreads from equity data". Master's thesis, University of Cape Town, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/8525.
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Includes bibliographical references.Corporate bonds are an attractive form of investment as they provide higher returns than government bonds. This increase in returns is usually associated with an increase in risk. These risks include liquidity, market and credit risk. This dissertation will focus on the modelling of a corporate bond's credit risk by considering how to estimate the credit default swap (CDS) spread of a firm's bond. A structural credit model will be used to do this. In this dissertation, we implement an extension of Merton's model by Hull, Nelken and White (2004), which is based on the use of the implied volatilities of options on the company's stock to estimate model parameters. Such an approach provides an insight into the relationship between credit markets and options markets.
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Paseka, Alexander I. "Debt valuation with endogenous default and Chapter 11 reorganization". Diss., The University of Arizona, 2003. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/280321.
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We examine a continuous-time structural model of debt valuation with the possibility of default and Chapter 11 bankruptcy. In doing so, we derive Chapter 11 duration and allocations to the debtor and bondholders in Chapter 1 I as the outcomes of a bargaining game between the debtor and the bondholders. The absolute priority rule (APR) violations arising in equilibrium are then embedded into closed-form solutions for the values of equity, finite-maturity debt, and credit spreads. It has been recently documented that existing credit risk models explain only a fraction of the observed yield spreads when confronted with the data on default rate and recovery rate at default (e.g., Collin-Dufresne et al. (2001) and Elton et al. (2001)). Taking the exclusivity period as an approximation to a legal environment of the bargaining process, we model Chapter 11 as the debtor's ultimatum offers to the bondholders and calibrate the model using an approach similar to that of Huang and Huang (2002). We obtain credit spreads that are twice to three times as large as those produced by the model in Leland and Toft (1996). The reason why this result holds in our model is that when the debtor obtains a non-zero allocation in bankruptcy, her option to default is worth more and exercised sooner than in Leland and Toft's model. Therefore, the debt value is smaller, and consequently, credit spreads are higher. Calibrated credit spreads are high for firms expected to be more solvent at default and those with large absolute priority rule violations. Finally, our model predicts a significant cross-sectional variation in Chapter 11 duration. Indeed, such heterogeneity is seen in actual bankruptcy experiences. We discuss several new empirical implications of the model with regards to the expected time in bankruptcy as a function of different firm characteristics. The model predicts that firms with a higher fraction of intangible assets, lower pre-bankruptcy volatility of asset value, and lower average maturity of debt in their capital structure spend less time in Chapter 11.
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Dimou, Paraskevi. "Models of corporate and bank default and credit migration". Thesis, City University London, 2007. http://openaccess.city.ac.uk/8596/.
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This thesis presents three studies on credit risk modelling. The first study compares the real default probabilities produced by three main structural models of default, Merton model, Longstaff and Schwartz model and Leland and Toft model, to the observed real default probabilities reported by Moody's for the BBB, BB and B rated bonds. We find that none of the models can accurately predict the default probabilities in all these cases. Merton as well as Leland and Toft models underpredict default probabilities. Longstaff and Schwartz model although it produces in some cases Expected Default Frequencies (EDFs) that are close to the observed ones, it tends to overestimate the default probabilities of riskier bonds as well as the default probabilities of bonds with the same rating but higher equity volatility. We also find that structural models tend to underestimate the default probabilities in early years. The second study examines whether information from equity markets, as summarized in the distance to default measure derived from a Merton-Moody's KMV (MKMV) model, provides useful additional information over accounting variables for predicting changes in bank credit ratings. Using a dataset of 98 equity listed banks from 1997 to 2004, we find that di~tance to default measure I has additional explanatory power for modeling current ratings, or predicting credit rating changes over a 6-month or l2-month horizon, but only for the smaller sized banks. We find no evidence that changes in distance-to-default have additional explanatory power for predicting rating categories, regardless of the size ofthe bank. The third study compares two proprietary models, Moody's KMV (MKMV) and BARRA models that use information from the equity and debt market respectively for the estimation of market implied ratings that can be updated continuously. We compare the empirical performance ofthese models in terms of their ability to predict in a timely fashion changes in credit quality by employing a sample of 4594 bonds issued by 447 firms from US for a period of3 years. We find that I?-either model provides a close mapping to observed ratings. Both however are useful for prediction of credit transitions.
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Peiris, Mahatelge Udara. "Essays in money, liquidity and default in the theory of finance". Thesis, University of Oxford, 2010. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.543623.
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Vateva, Tzveta. ""Corporate Governance and Default Risk"". Kent State University / OhioLINK, 2014. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=kent1412703653.
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Fehle, Frank Rudolf. "Market structure, default risk, and swap spreads : international evidence /". Digital version accessible at:, 1999. http://wwwlib.umi.com/cr/utexas/main.
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Shen, Yao. "Essays in Corporate Finance and Credit Markets". Thesis, Boston College, 2016. http://hdl.handle.net/2345/bc-ir:106883.
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Thesis advisor: Philp E. StrahanThis dissertation is comprised of three essays which examine the interactions among credit market innovation, corporate finance, and information intermediaries. In the first essay, I study the role of credit default swaps (CDS) in reducing credit supply frictions for corporate borrowers. I find that firms whose CDS is included in a major CDS index--the CDX North American Investment Grade index--have significantly lower cost of debt, and in response rely more heavily on debt for external financing. To address the potential endogeneity of index addition, I use a regression discontinuity design by exploiting the index inclusion rule, which allows me to compare firms that are just above and below the index inclusion cutoff. I show that index inclusion improves the liquidity of underlying single-name CDSs, which enables constituent firms' debtholders to better hedge their credit risk exposure. My findings suggest that CDS market benefits investment-grade borrowers by alleviating the supply-side frictions in credit markets. In the second essay, we investigate the role of proxy advisory firms in shareholder voting. Proxy advisory firms have become important players in corporate governance, but the extent of their influence over shareholder votes is debated. We estimate the effect of Institutional Shareholder Services (ISS) recommendations on voting outcomes by exploiting exogenous variation in ISS recommendations generated by a cutoff rule in its voting guidelines. Using a regression discontinuity design, we find that in 2010-2011, a negative ISS recommendation on a say-on-pay proposal leads to a 25 percentage point reduction in say-on-pay voting support, suggesting strong influence over shareholder votes. We also use our setting to examine the informational role of ISS recommendations. In the third essay, I examine how Moody's ratings have responded to the introduction of Credit Default Swap (CDS) market--an important innovation in credit markets in the past decade. I find that ratings quality of CDS firms, measured as default predictive power, improved significantly after the onset of CDS trading, consistent with a disciplining role of the CDS market. I show that ratings become more accurate in terms of less failure to warn (i.e. rating a defaulter too high) which is not accompanied by a rise of false alarms. In addition, rating downgrades are significantly more likely to be preceded by negative outlook or a watch for downgrade. The results are robust to controlling for the endogeneity of CDS trading. Overall, the evidence suggests that, in response to the CDS market developments, Moody's ratings become better at differentiating bad issuers from good ones as opposed to a "cookie-cutter'' approach to more conservative ratings
Thesis (PhD) — Boston College, 2016
Submitted to: Boston College. Carroll School of Management
Discipline: Finance
16
XUE, Xinshu. "The impact of credit default swaps on corporate investment policy". Digital Commons @ Lingnan University, 2015. https://commons.ln.edu.hk/fin_etd/14.
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Credit Default Swaps (CDSs) play an important role in the financial markets. The introduction of CDSs has impacts on the bond market, and the financial characteristics and creditworthiness of the underlying reference entities. When financing is not frictionless, the investment policies of firms are related to their financial conditions. However, whether or how the introduction of CDS will directly affect the investment policy of the firm has not been examined empirically in the literature. To shed light on this issue, my study investigates the relation between credit default swaps trading and corporate investment policy for the listed firms in the United States using the data of CDS reference entities from 2002 to 2014. I find that the introduction of CDSs is negatively related to the investment decisions of reference entities. Furthermore, the relation is more significant when the reference entities have financial constraints and depend more on external credit supply. Overall, when a listed firm becomes a CDS reference entity, the probability of its underinvestment will increase. The study contributes not only to the growing literature on the relationship between CDS introduction and the reference firm, but also to the literature on corporate investment policy making.
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Macchiavelli, Marco. "Essays in Macroeconomics and Finance". Thesis, Boston College, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/2345/bc-ir:104232.
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Thesis advisor: Susanto BasuThe goal of this dissertation is to shed some light on three separate aspects of the financial system that can lead to greater instability in the banking sector and greater macroeconomic volatility. The starting point of the Great Recession was the collapse of the banking sector in late 2007; in the subsequent months, liquidity evaporated in many markets for short term funding. The process of creating liquidity carried out by the banking system involves the transformation of long term illiquid assets into short term liquid liabilities. This engine functions properly as long as cash lenders continue to roll over short term funding to banks; whenever these lenders fear that banks will not be able to pay back these obligations, they immediately stop funding banks' short term liabilities. This makes banks unable to repay maturing short term debt, which leads to large spikes in default risk. This is often referred to as a modern bank run. Virtually all the theories of bank runs suggest that the severity of a run depends on how well lenders can coordinate their beliefs: whenever a lender expects many others to run, he becomes more likely to run as well. In a joint work with Emanuele Brancati, the first chapter of my dissertation, we empirically document the role of coordination in explaining bank runs and default risk. We establish two new results. First, when information is more precise and agents can better coordinate their actions, a change in market expectations has a larger impact on default risk; this implies that more precise information increases the vulnerability or instability of the banking system. This result has a clear policy implication: if policymakers want to stabilize the banking system they should promote opacity instead of transparency, especially during periods of financial turmoil. Second, we show that when a bank is expected to perform poorly, lower dispersion of beliefs actually increases default risk; this result is in contrast with standard theories in finance and can be rationalized by thinking about the impact that more precise information has on the ability of creditors to coordinate on a bank run. Another aspect of the banking system that is creating a lot of instability in Europe is the so called "disastrous banks-sovereign nexus": many banks in troubled countries owned a disproportionately large amount of domestic sovereign bonds; therefore, in case of a default of the sovereign country, the whole domestic banking sector would incur insurmountable losses. This behavior is puzzling because these banks in troubled countries would greatly benefit from having a more diversified asset portfolio, but instead decide to load up with domestic sovereign debt only. In a joint work with Filippo De Marco, the second chapter of my dissertation, we show that banks receive political pressures from their respective governments to load up on domestic sovereigns. First, we show that banks with a larger fraction of politicians as shareholders display greater home bias. More importantly, we exploit the fact that low-performing banks received liquidity injections by their domestic governments to show that, among those banks, only the "political banks" drastically increased their home bias upon receiving government help. Furthermore, it appears that the extent of political pressure on banks is much stronger on those "political banks" belonging to troubled countries. These findings suggest that troubled countries that would need to pay a high premium to issue new debt force their "political banks" to purchase part of the debt issuance. This greater risk-synchronization can create a dangerous loop of higher sovereign default risk leading to insolvency of the domestic banking system, which in turn would require a bail-out from the local government, further exacerbating the sovereign de- fault risk. Finally, the third chapter of my dissertation, a joint work with Susanto Basu, investigates the sources of excess consumption volatility in emerging markets. It is a well documented fact that, in emerging markets, consumption is more volatile than output whereas the opposite is true in developed economies. We propose an explanation for this phenomenon that relies on a specific form of financial markets incompleteness: we assume that households would always want to front-load consumption and they can borrow from abroad up to a fraction of the value of posted collateral. With the value of collateral being procyclical, households are able to increase borrowing during an expansion and ultimately consume more than they produce; this mechanism is then able to generate a ratio of consumption volatility to output volatility grater than one. Most importantly, the model delivers the implication that a better ability to borrow vis-a-vis the same value of collateral generates greater relative consumption volatility. We then bring this model's implication to the data and find empirical support for it. We proxy the ability to borrow with various measures of effectiveness of lending regulation and more standard indicators of financial development. Consistent with the model's implication, more lending friendly regulation leads to greater relative consumption volatility in emerging markets; moreover, this link breaks down among developed countries. In addition, among emerging countries, it appears that deeper domestic capital markets have a destabilizing effect in terms of greater relative consumption volatility while a more developed domestic banking system does not exerts any such detrimental effect
Thesis (PhD) — Boston College, 2015
Submitted to: Boston College. Graduate School of Arts and Sciences
Discipline: Economics
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Österling, Anders. "Housing Markets and Mortgage Finance". Doctoral thesis, Stockholms universitet, Nationalekonomiska institutionen, 2017. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:su:diva-144622.
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This Ph.D. thesis deals with questions related to the housing market, and answers the questions: "Does it matter if housing markets are underpriced?" and "How do the legal system and the loan contract affect those who default on their mortgage payments? "When selling a home, a popular marketing strategy is to set the list price far below market value. The idea is that a low list price will attract loads of buyers, who will push up the sale price. This thesis finds that a voluntary reform can reduce underpricing in the short run. Further, underpriced housing markets do indeed require more attention from potential buyers during all stages — online, at open houses, and during the bidding. This extra search effort is costly to society. However, underpricing is found not to affect the sale price, the time to sell, who the buyers are, or how hard the real estate agent works. The household's choice to default on a mortgage depends on the cost of the default (the legal system) and the mortgage contract. By studying a heterogeneous agent consumption/savings lifecycle model, this thesis finds that households prefer "lender friendly" laws that are costly for the homeowners upon default. This is because costly defaults yield fewer defaulters and thus lower interest rates, and thus are cheaper for non-defaulters. Households always prefer non-amortizing mortgages except when defaults do not have any cost associated with them, and they prefer adjustable rates over fixed rates. The benefits of costly defaults are particularly large for non-amortizing mortgages. The thesis concludes with the development of a new mathematical method to solve a particular class of dynamic programming problems, using stochastic simulated grids and nearest-neighbour interpolation.
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Brown, Iain Leonard Johnston. "Basel II compliant credit risk modelling : model development for imbalanced credit scoring data sets, loss given default (LGD) and exposure at default (EAD)". Thesis, University of Southampton, 2012. https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/341517/.
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The purpose of this thesis is to determine and to better inform industry practitioners to the most appropriate classification and regression techniques for modelling the three key credit risk components of the Basel II minimum capital requirement; probability of default (PD), loss given default (LGD), and exposure at default (EAD). The Basel II accord regulates risk and capital management requirements to ensure that a bank holds enough capital proportional to the exposed risk of its lending practices. Under the advanced internal ratings based (IRB) approach Basel II allows banks to develop their own empirical models based on historical data for each of PD, LGD and EAD. In this thesis, first the issue of imbalanced credit scoring data sets, a special case of PD modelling where the number of defaulting observations in a data set is much lower than the number of observations that do not default, is identified, and the suitability of various classification techniques are analysed and presented. As well as using traditional classification techniques this thesis also explores the suitability of gradient boosting, least square support vector machines and random forests as a form of classification. The second part of this thesis focuses on the prediction of LGD, which measures the economic loss, expressed as a percentage of the exposure, in case of default. In this thesis, various state-of-the-art regression techniques to model LGD are considered. In the final part of this thesis we investigate models for predicting the exposure at default (EAD). For off-balance-sheet items (for example credit cards) to calculate the EAD one requires the committed but unused loan amount times a credit conversion factor (CCF). Ordinary least squares (OLS), logistic and cumulative logistic regression models are analysed, as well as an OLS with Beta transformation model, with the main aim of finding the most robust and comprehensible model for the prediction of the CCF. Also a direct estimation of EAD, using an OLS model, will be analysed. All the models built and presented in this thesis have been applied to real-life data sets from major global banking institutions.
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Mace, Jennifer. "Are CDS Auctions the Tail Wagging the Dog? An Empirical Study of Corporate Bond Return Volatility at the Time of Default". Scholarship @ Claremont, 2019. https://scholarship.claremont.edu/cmc_theses/2212.
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Over the past decade, numerous engineered credit events and cases of market participants manipulating bond prices to influence Credit Default Swap (CDS) auction payouts have occurred. These cases have become increasingly common, and the CFTC has stated they may constitute market manipulation and undermine not only the CDS market but also the credit derivative and default markets. Although there is a plethora of news and media coverage on publicized cases, there is no previous empirical research on evidence of these practices. This paper is motivated by the desire to determine if there is indirect evidence of bond price manipulation around default and of market participants’ attempts to favorably move CDS’s underlying bond prices to achieve more profitable positions around default and emerging from CDS auctions. The analysis is performed by analyzing the effect of a bonds’ inclusion in CDS auctions on bond return volatility around the time of default while controlling for credit risk, illiquidity, firm fundamentals, and other bond-level controls. I find that bond return volatility around default is much higher as a result of a bond’s inclusion in a CDS auction, which serves as indirect evidence of bond price manipulation around default as market participants strive for more profitable CDS auction outcomes and possibly of manufactured credit events. Consistent with previous literature, I also find that bond illiquidity significantly impacts bond return volatility. My results are robust to propensity score matching, implementing double-robust estimators, and controlling for any time-varying cross-sectionally-invariant fluctuations in bond return volatility.
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Stone, Devon. "An exploration of alternative features in micro-finance loan default prediction models". Master's thesis, Faculty of Science, 2020. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/32377.
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Despite recent developments financial inclusion remains a large issue for the World's unbanked population. Financial institutions - both larger corporations and micro-finance companies - have begun to provide solutions for financial inclusion. The solutions are delivered using a combination of machine learning and alternative data. This minor dissertation focuses on investigating whether alternative features generated from Short Messaging Service (SMS) data and Android application data contained on borrowers' devices can be used to improve the performance of loan default prediction models. The improvement gained by using alternative features is measured by comparing loan default prediction models trained using only traditional credit scoring data to models developed using a combination of traditional and alternative features. Furthermore, the paper investigates which of 4 machine learning techniques is best suited for loan default prediction. The 4 techniques investigated are logistic regression, random forests, extreme gradient boosting, and neural networks. Finally the paper identifies whether or not accurate loan default prediction models can be trained using only the alternative features developed throughout this minor dissertation. The results of the research show that alternative features improve the performance of loan default prediction across 5 performance indicators, namely overall prediction accuracy, repaid prediction accuracy, default prediction accuracy, F1 score, and AUC. Furthermore, extreme gradient boosting is identified as the most appropriate technique for loan default prediction. Finally, the research identifies that models trained using the alternative features developed throughout this project can accurately predict loan that have been repaid, the models do not accurately predict loans that have not been repaid.
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Leow, Mindy. "Credit risk models for mortgage loan loss given default". Thesis, University of Southampton, 2010. https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/170515/.
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Arguably, the credit risk models reported in the literature for the retail lending sector have so far been less developed than those for the corporate sector, mainly due to the lack of publicly available data. Having been given access to a dataset on defaulted mortgages kindly provided by a major UK bank, this work first investigates the Loss Given Default (LGD) of mortgage loans with the development of two separate component models, the Probability of Repossession (given default) Model and the Haircut (given repossession) Model. They are then combined into an expected loss percentage. Performance-wise, this two-stage LGD model is shown to do better than a single-stage LGD model (which directly models LGD from loan and collateral characteristics), as it achieves a better Rsquare value, and it more accurately matches the distribution of observed LGD. We next investigate the possibility of including macroeconomic variables into either or both component models to improve LGD prediction. Indicators relating to net lending, gross domestic product, national default rates and interest rates are considered and the interest rate is found to be most beneficial to both component models. Finally, we develop a competing risk survival analysis model to predict the time taken for a defaulted mortgage loan to reach some outcome (i.e. repossession or non-repossession). This allows for a more accurate prediction of (discounted) loss as these periods could vary from months to years depending on the health of the economy. Besides loan- or collateral-related characteristics, we incorporate a time-dependent macroeconomic variable based on the house price index (HPI) to investigate its impact on repossession risk. We find that observations of different loan-to-value ratios at default and different security type are affected differently by the economy. This model is then used for stress test purposes by applying a Monte Carlo simulation, and by varying the HPI forecast, to get different loss distributions for different economic outlooks.
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Xie, Yan Alice Wu Chunchi. "Immunization of interest rate risk and pricing of default risk of bond portfolios". Related Electronic Resource: Current Research at SU : database of SU dissertations, recent titles available full text, 2003. http://wwwlib.umi.com/cr/syr/main.
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Pereira, John. "An empirical investigation of corporate credit default swap spreads and returns". Thesis, Kingston University, 2015. http://eprints.kingston.ac.uk/35845/.
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This thesis focuses on the empirical investigation of Credit Default Swap (CDS) spreads and return dynamics for listed corporates in the US, UK and EU. Academic interest in CDS market is continuously growing and this thesis aims to provide a better understanding of the CDS market dynamics. Specifically, this thesis explores three critical areas of research interest for the CDS market with each Chapter Two, Three and Four focussing on a specific aim, objectives and research questions within the context of the overall thesis. The thesis is largely based on three separate but broadly related research studies. The first study, Chapter Two, explores the dynamics of quarterly CDS spreads for corporates in US, UK and EU for the three major economic conditions namely; pre-crisis, crisis and post-crisis period. This study is the first to explore such a wider sample domain both in terms of the geographical coverage as well as the period of analysis. CDS spreads are regressed using both accounting based ad-hoc measures as well as theory driven market based variables, individually as well as collectively in a single combined model. This study documents the changing nature of spread predictor variables based on the sub-period of analysis and find the market based variables to be more closely aligned to spreads than their accounting counterparts. This study proposes the use of both information sets as additive rather than substitutive within the CDS pricing framework. This study also tests the effect of bond market liquidity dynamics and CDS market liquidity effect on CDS spreads and finds spreads in the post-crisis period to be plagued by both bond market and CDS liquidity dynamics. This study concludes that CDS spreads in the post-crisis period may be plagued by non-default driven factors and should not be considered as pure measure of corporate credit risk. Thus signals from CDS market should be carefully considered in conjunction with other financial market indicators before drawing policy implications. The second study, Chapter Three, evaluates the effect of the interest rate, quantitative easing and fiscal policy announcements in US and UK on corporate CDS returns. The unprecedented interventions announced by government and Central banks to contain the effect of the financial crisis provides the motivation for this study. This study measures the effect of these announcements on corporate credit risk by estimating daily CDS returns which is a better time series measure of corporate credit risk than CDS spreads or equity returns as used in past studies. This study notes an opposite effect of interest rate announcement where credit risk for firms following the interst rate announcement decreased for US corporate while it increased for UK corporates. Across both US and UK, corporate credit risk tends to be lower following QE announcements; highlighting its popularity during the financial crisis. Fiscal policy announcements are characterised by minor improvement in corporate credit risk which is short lived. By comparing pre and post announcement days abnormal return, this study finds that median abnormal return following US policy interventions were higher in post announcement days in US while an opposite effect can be noted for the UK corporates. This study concludes that policy interventions in US were more effective in stablising corporate credit risk for US corporate which policy announcements in UK were not effective. This study also tests the differential effect following policy interventions across corporates sampled based on sector, credit quality, frim size and CDS liquidity. No other study have undertaken such a detailed sub-sample analysis across policy announcements in US and UK and the findings underline the theme that firm specific heterogeneity leads to differential effect of policy announcement on corporate credit risk. The third study, Chapter Four, attempts to provide evidence of the generalizability of the Fama and French (FF) asset pricing model to the CDS market. The test on generalizability of the FF model to the CDS market has not been attempted before and this study is the first to check the external validity of the FF model with an aim to test if the model works for the CDS market. The findings from the portfolios returns indicate the average daily excess returns are not perfectly aligned as expected to the book-t-market, operating profitibility and investment factors and expose variations in average return sufficient to provide strong challenges in asset pricing tests. The relationship between the portfolio type and average excess return trend is also found to fluctuate based on the sub-period of analysis. Apart from testing the external validity of the FF model, this study also aims to access the external validity of the default risk hypothesis, by testing if the default risj is proced in the cross section of CDS returns and if the FF factors; SMB and HML factors are proxying for default risk in the CDS returns. The finding indicates that it is unlikely that SMB and HML are proxying for default risk. Overall, the findings from this study indicates the FF three factor (3F) and FF five factor (5F) model can be generalised to the CDS market, between the two models the 5F model is a better asset pricing model for the CDS market. This study goes a step further and queries if the FF factor model for the CDS market can be improved on by augmenting it with a default driven factor. Augmenting both the 3F and 5F model with default factor results in at best a marginal improvement to the models' explanatory power across the sub-periods analysed in this study. Hence for reasons of parsimony, this study suggest the FF 5F model to be preferred asset pricing model for the CDS market. Notwithstanding these separate contributions, overall this thesis contributes to a better understanding of CDS spreads, CDS returns and thus the CDS market in general. The past decade have seen a wealth of literature focussing on CDS market and the knowledge and understanding of the CDS market dynamics is being continuously refined and expanded. The findings of this thesis will provide useful insight and a deeper understanding for a variety of stakeholders including regulators, market participants, the financial community and the academic community at large to be able to better understand an important source of credit risk information.
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Haworth, H. "Structural models of credit with default contagion". Thesis, University of Oxford, 2006. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.437010.
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Multi-asset credit derivatives trade in huge volumes, yet no models exist that are capable of properly accounting for the spread behaviour of dependent companies. In this thesis we consider new ways of incorporating a richer and more realistic dependence structure into multi-firm models. We focus on the structural framework in which firm value is modelled as a geometric Brownian motion, with default as the first hitting time of an exponential default threshold. Specification of a dependence structure consisting of a common driving influence and firm-specific inter-company ties allows for both default causality and default asymmetry and we incorporate default contagion in the first passage framework for the first time. Building on the work by Zhou (2001a), we propose an analytical model for corporate bond yields in the presence of default contagion and two-firm credit default swap baskets. We derive closed-form solutions for credit spreads, and results clearly highlight the importance of dependence assumptions. Extending this framework numerically, we calculate CDS spreads for baskets of three firms with a wide variety of credit dependence specifications. We examine the impact of firm value correlation and credit contagion for symmetric and asymmetric baskets, and incorporate contagion that has a declining impact over time.
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Xu, Zhengyang. "Contagion and Competitive Intra-industry Effects of Default Announcements Evidence from Chinese Bond Market". Scholarship @ Claremont, 2016. http://scholarship.claremont.edu/cmc_theses/1375.
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In this paper I analyzed the intra-industry competitive and contagion effect during bond defaults in China. The analysis is performed using bond price, since the Chinese stock market is immature and has incredible amount of volatility. The sample includes 15 cases of default across 10 different industries since 2014, and the cumulative effect of the industry portfolio is positive over 11-day event window (competitive effect) with a t-statistic of 6.22. In addition, I found that SOE defaults overall have a significant positive abnormal return on their industry portfolios during 11-day event window with a t-statistic of 4.72, indicating a competitive effect. In contrast, Non-SOE defaults overall have a significant negative abnormal return on their industry portfolios over 3-day window with a t-statistic of -3.36, showing a contagion effect. But this difference could be due to the characteristics of industries as opposed to the nature of SOE. By analyzing the condition and characteristics of each industry, I found that the significance of abnormal return depends on the level of competition of the industry and the level of information available. In terms of contagion and competitive effect, industries showing a contagion effect offer products that are difficult to differentiate, such as cement and water bottle. Industries showing a competitive effect offer products that are highly specialized and rely heavily on technology innovation, such as the special equipment industry and electric equipment industry.
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Hirani, Pranav. "Dynamic models of credit ratings and default probabilities". Diss., Columbia, Mo. : University of Missouri-Columbia, 2007. http://hdl.handle.net/10355/5998.
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Thesis (M.A.)--University of Missouri-Columbia, 2007.The entire dissertation/thesis text is included in the research.pdf file; the official abstract appears in the short.pdf file (which also appears in the research.pdf); a non-technical general description, or public abstract, appears in the public.pdf file. Title from title screen of research.pdf file (viewed on April 17, 2008) Includes bibliographical references.
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Davis, Renée A. "The Nevada System of Higher Education loan defaulter analysis project a system-wide look at defaulted student characteristics /". abstract and full text PDF (free order & download UNR users only), 2008. http://0-gateway.proquest.com.innopac.library.unr.edu/openurl?url_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:dissertation&res_dat=xri:pqdiss&rft_dat=xri:pqdiss:1453197.
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Soga, Nomaphelo. "The cost of credit default in the vehicle finance industry in South Africa". Thesis, Cape Peninsula University of Technology, 2019. http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11838/3027.
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Thesis (MTech (Cost and Management Accounting))--Cape Peninsula University of Technology, 2019The risk that borrowers may not fulfil borrowing obligation presents credit owners (lenders) with a default risk management opportunity to maximize risk-adjusted rate of return and maintain minimum exposure to default associated cost. This study investigated respondents' perception of the cost of credit default and examines requirements for default risk management (ORM) in the vehicle finance industry in South Africa. It is noted that with increased level of consumer indebtedness, an unstable economy, and high unemployment, vehicle financing faces a higher probability of default from borrowers. This descriptive investigation utilised both the quantitative and qualitative approaches using the survey method to collect data from 381 purposive, randomly selected respondents who are vehicle finance customers in South Africa; Cape Town specifically. Data collection took place in the Western Cape over a nine months period, utilising personal interview, and emails to administer open-ended questionnaires for credit managers and close-ended questionnaires, for the vehicle finances' customers, as data collection instrument. Responses received were codified and quantitative data was analysed using the Statistical Packages for Social Sciences (SPSS version 25) while qualitative data was analysed using the content analysis of percentage of word similarities. The study found mixed and variable respondents' perception of the cost of credit default. In conclusion, it is perceived that in South Africa the cost of credit would become more costly with credit default. It can be recommended that a default risk management intervention could be applied to mitigate the risk of credit default within the context of unified credit assessment policy of South Africa.
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Rich, Don R. "Incorporating default risk into the Black-Scholes model using stochastic barrier option pricing theory". Diss., This resource online, 1993. http://scholar.lib.vt.edu/theses/available/etd-06062008-171359/.
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Chen, Jian. "Agricultural Loans and Strategic Default: Evidence from China and U.S". The Ohio State University, 2019. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1557142004653804.
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Eyigungor, Burcu. "Essays in dynamic economics". Diss., Restricted to subscribing institutions, 2007. http://proquest.umi.com/pqdweb?did=1432786291&sid=1&Fmt=2&clientId=1564&RQT=309&VName=PQD.
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Ilerisoy, Mahmut Sa-Aadu Jarjisu. "Hedging out the mark-to market volatility for structured credit portfolios". Iowa City : University of Iowa, 2009. http://ir.uiowa.edu/etd/381.
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Wang, Hui. "AN INVESTIGATION OF STRATEGIC BEHAVIOR IN CONSUMER DEFAULT". The Ohio State University, 2012. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1338317059.
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Bernstein, Elan M. "The Impact of Credit Default Swap Introduction on Firm Systematic Risk". Scholarship @ Claremont, 2015. http://scholarship.claremont.edu/cmc_theses/1063.
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This paper empirically explores how the introduction of Credit Default Swap (CDS) trading affects firm systematic risk. By treating the introduction as an event study and imploring propensity score matching and difference-in-differences analysis, this research finds that firm exposure to market risk increases after the introduction of CDS instruments, controlling for higher debt levels. These findings change, however, in times of financial crisis when the impact of CDS trading actually reduces systematic risk. These results show that CDS introduction enables a firm to more dramatically change its exposure to systematic risk in comparison to its counterpart to reflect market conditions.
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Emenike, Obioma. "Business loan default in Nigerian commercial banks : from causes to remedies". Thesis, Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/97167.
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Thesis (MDF)--Stellenbosch University, 2011.ENGLISH ABSTRACT: A sound and favourable financial climate is necessary for any forward-looking economy to thrive. This, amongst others, includes the extent to which the commercial banks are able to discharge their intermediating role in the demand and supply of credit necessary to sustain commercial businesses. Indeed, in the last decade, the Nigerian banking industry has witnessed swings with the attendant effects on the business community. One of the downsides has been the incidence of loan default which led to many banks recording astronomical levels of bad loans in their 2008 financial reports. The drastic measures taken by the Central Bank of Nigeria of relieving eight CEOs of their jobs in September 2009 further highlights the import of this subject matter. This paper gives an overview of the concept of loan default in Nigerian commercial banks ranging from the causes to the remedies currently in place to checkmate it. A field survey on loan officers, credit analysts and credit risk managers in some select banks was carried out. The findings reveal that the banks have a rather cautious approach to lending with certain classes of loans classified. Causal factors leading to loan delinquencies categorised into environmental, bank specific and borrower specific factors were analysed to have contributed equally to causing loan default in Nigeria. Lastly, the regression results indicated that there was a significant relationship between measures adopted by the banks in the face of increa
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Wang, Yi. "Default risk in equity returns an industrial and cross-industrial study /". Cleveland, Ohio : Cleveland State University, 2009. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=csu1251906476.
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Thesis (Ph.D.)--Cleveland State University, 2009.Abstract. Title from PDF t.p. (viewed on Sept. 8, 2009). Includes bibliographical references (p. 149-154). Available online via the OhioLINK ETD Center and also available in print.
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Kerr, Sougata. "The impact of relationship lending in assessing default heterogeneity and consumer search behavior in the 1990s U.S credit card market". Columbus, Ohio : Ohio State University, 2003. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc%5Fnum=osu1060562543.
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Thesis (Ph. D.)--Ohio State University, 2003.Title from first page of PDF file. Document formatted into pages; contains xii, 89 p.; also includes graphics (some col.). Includes abstract and vita. Advisor: Lucia Dunn, Dept. of Economics. Includes bibliographical references (p. 82-84).
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Qi, Ziqiong. "Credit risk under normal and extreme condition : empirical investigation on European CDS spread changes". Thesis, Rennes 1, 2014. http://www.theses.fr/2014REN1G025/document.
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Cette thèse de doctorat s’articule en trois chapitres. Le premier chapitre s’attache à trouver les déterminants principaux des variations hebdomadaires des marges de CDS, en période normale. Le deuxième chapitre se concentre, quant à lui, sur le comportement des marges de CDS dans les situations extrêmes. Nous exploitons dans ce chapitre les outils couramment employés dans l’analyse du risque systémique (CoVaR et régression quantile). Le troisième et dernier chapitre s’intéresse à l'impact des modifications de notations émises par les agences de rating (sur les marges de CDS). Nous procédons ici à une étude d’événements. Ces trois chapitres, de nature empirique, analysent donc, sous des angles différents. Ils insistent aussi dans leur interprétation sur la dimension sectorielle du marché des CDS. Bien que conçus séparément et indépendamment; les résultats de ces chapitres apparaissent, pour l’essentiel, assez cohérents. Ainsi, dans le premier chapitre, une série d’analyses en composantes principales menées sur les marges de CDS indiquent que le « secteur » constitue un facteur important. Dans le deuxième chapitre, les résultats fournis par la mesure de risque systémique appelée CoVaR suggèrent aussi que les secteurs dirigent le comportement des CDS individuels dans les moments extrêmesThis thesis examines in three empirical essays levels and changes of CDS spread related to largest European companies. In the first chapter, we aim at identifying most important variables that drive CDS spreads in normal market conditions We suggest a list of new microeconomic variables and we find there exist some remaining sector wide common factors. In chapter two, we examine credit risk spillovers of CDS and equity markets under extreme conditions. To this end, we implement among other the very recent CoVaR technology of related entities. We also find here indirect evidences that sectors govern the behavior of individual CDS. In chapter three, we finally undertake a number of event studies on CDS and Equity daily data making use of hand-collected credit rating changes. Among other things, we evidence that both CDS spreads and equity prices move as the rating changes but also that movements differ according to upgrades, downgrades, succession and turnovers
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Zhou, Qingqing. "Challenges and concerns on securitization of non-performing loans in China : from the state banks' perspective /". Click to view the E-thesis via HKUTO, 2001. http://sunzi.lib.hku.hk/hkuto/record/B42577159.
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Hund, John Eric. "Variance and covariance dynamics in emerging sovereign credit markets /". Digital version accessible at:, 2000. http://wwwlib.umi.com/cr/utexas/main.
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Al-Own, Bassam. "CEO stock-option compensation and the use of credit default swaps in relation to European bank risk". Thesis, Edinburgh Napier University, 2015. http://researchrepository.napier.ac.uk/Output/8800.
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This thesis investigates two main aspects related to the use of credit default swaps (CDS) by European banks. The first area of investigation focuses on the relationship between the CEOs' risk-taking incentives generated by stock option compensation and the usage of CDS by banks. This thesis contributes to the existing literature in risk management with derivatives, which initially assumes that the use of derivatives is intended to reduce firm risk, by distinguishing between CDS use for hedging purposes and CDS use for trading purposes. The relationship between CEOs' risk-taking incentives and CDS use in banks, and the influence of CDS use on bank's risk are investigated based on the purpose of CDS use. This thesis utilises the estimates of the Black-Scholes sensitivity of executives' stock option portfolios to stock return volatility (vega) to test the relationship between CEOs' risk-taking incentives and CDS use. In addition, this thesis distinguishes between the effect of risk-taking incentives on CDS use for hedging purposes, and the effect of risk-taking incentives on CDS use for trading (speculating) purposes. The second key aspect of this thesis is to examine the effect of CDS use on bank risk by distinguishing between the effect of CDS use for hedging purposes and CDS use for trading purposes. The purpose of CDS use that depends upon the managers' risk-taking incentives and the use of CDS can have different implications to the risk profile of the bank. Data for the period of 2006 – 2011 were hand collected from the annual reports of sixty European banks. The sample comprises publicly listed banks from European stock market indices and premier indices of the European Union countries (EU-27). In conducting the empirical testing, the two stages regression approach was used to adjust for the potential endogeneity that could arise between the risk-taking incentives of stock option compensation (vega), and CDS use. The results show a significantly positive relationship between CEOs' risk-taking incentives generated by stock option compensations and CDS use in banks for trading purposes. This implies that higher risk-taking incentives (vega) are associated with greater CDS use for trading purposes. Furthermore, there is a negative linkage between CEOs' risk-taking incentives and CDS use for hedging purposes at weak levels of statistical significance. The results also show strong evidence of a positive linkage between CDS use for trading purposes and bank risk. CDS use for trading purposes is associated with a higher bank's beta and lower distance to default. Further, the results show a positive and significant relationship between CDS use for hedging purposes and bank risk. CDS use for hedging purposes is also associated with a higher beta of a bank and lower distance to default. These results are consistent with the theoretical predictions of Smith and Stulz (1985), who suggest that stock options can influence managers' decisions to use derivatives and lead to greater alignment between the interests of managers and shareholders by mitigating managerial risk aversion. Thus, stock options provide managers with incentives to take on risk. Overall, the evidence presented in this thesis suggests that CEOs' risk-taking incentives derived from stock options compensation is a key determinant of CDS use in banks. Moreover, banks' CDS use increases bank risk regardless of the purpose of its use. Both hedging and speculating CDS activities are associated with a bank's higher risk. This thesis provides an integrated understanding and builds a comprehensive picture of how CEOs' stock option compensation can affect the purpose of CDS use, and how this use influences bank risk. It primarily extends previous empirical literature, which initially looked at derivatives as a risk reduction instrument, by distinguishing between CDS use for hedging purposes from CDS use for trading purposes.
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Ahn, Kwangwon. "Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models with money, default and collateral". Thesis, University of Oxford, 2013. http://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:78317412-e13d-4495-9665-340e777ab7b2.
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This D.Phil. dissertation investigates the areas in financial stability. The three comprising essays have a common ground: money, default and collateral in the theory of finance. Chapter Two (co-authored with Prof. Dimitrios Tsomocos), which is titled “A Dynamic General Equilibrium Model to Analyse Financial Stability”, aims to refine and improve existing DSGE models in two ways. First, it incorporates hitherto neglected components such as endogenous default, money via cash-in-advance constraints and heterogeneous banking sectors. Thus, in contrast to the New Keynesian approach, here it is liquidity and default that are the driving forces behind our results. Second, in focusing on both monetary policy and fiscal policy, it elucidates how interactions between the two policy arenas affect macroeconomic fluctuations, particularly in regard to financial stability. Through these refinements, we put forward the policy response necessary to achieve a stable financial system using a calibrated DSGE model. Chapter Three, entitled “Monetary Policy in a Time of Natural Disaster”, investigates the appropriate monetary policy response to natural disasters in the DSGE framework. I develop a realistic model for financial turmoil by evaluating the impact of natural disasters on credit markets by including financial frictions such as endogenous default and liquidity constraints. I show that the standard Taylor rule (1993) response in models with money and default is to increase the nominal interest rate after a disaster shock. However, in fact an inflation-targeting policy (i.e. monetary contraction) is not compatible with mitigating financial fragility in the highly indebted economy with near-zero interest rate, and arguably the `Taylor Principle' does not hold in such as economy (e.g. Japan in 2011). Nevertheless, expansionary monetary policy induces a debt overhang even further. Chapter Four, “Collateral, Default and Asset Prices”, uses a DSGE framework to put forward a model of how agents adjust their asset holdings in response to deflationary shocks. By introducing collateral constraints in the default decision, I capture some original features of the early debt-deflation literature, such as distress selling and instability. The estimated model successfully delivers a procyclical feedback loop for the default channel, which consists of foreclosure, high borrowing costs, inefficient capital allocation, and a further decrease in the output level. I investigated recessionary shocks inducing deflation in commodity and/or asset prices for monetary policy experiments. This, therefore, underlines the importance of monetary policy in restoring financial stability during a deflationary period.
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Ngufor, Patrick. "Quantitative study of perceptions of business owners and loan officers on loan delinquency and default". Thesis, University of Phoenix, 2014. http://pqdtopen.proquest.com/#viewpdf?dispub=3578584.
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This research seeks to document if differences in perceptions of small business creditworthiness and lending practices of credit union and commercial lenders exist. This study applied a quantitative method to answer five questions: (1)How do small business owners perceive commercial lenders? (2)How do small business owners perceive credit union lenders? (3)How do commercial banks perceive small businesses? (4)How do credit unions perceive small businesses? (5)What are the differences in the perceptions of small businesses, commercial banks, and credit unions? The study used a quantitative survey instrument to gather data and the data was compared and contrasted among groups (Fitzgerald & Rumrill, 2004). The chi-squared test of differences in probabilities and the goodness of fit test were applied (Figure 2A) to determine if there were differences in probabilities between answers.
The results of this study are significant to small business and banking leaders by helping to define how lenders’ and small businesses’ perceptions affect the differences in loan delinquency rates between commercial lenders and credit unions lenders and by offering new insight into how loan delinquency rates can be reduced. The results also pointed to inherent perceptions of small business owners and lenders that might contribute to the root causes of loan defaults and delinquencies. The results provided information upon which small business owners and financial institution loan officers might act in order to understand how to better manage loans and to reduce the rate of loan delinquency.
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Xuan, Chengwu. "Does the Use of Financial Derivatives Affect Distance-to-Default: Evidence from U.S. Bank Holding Companies". Scholarship @ Claremont, 2017. http://scholarship.claremont.edu/cmc_theses/1650.
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Using a sample of 1007 U.S. bank holding companies from 1995 to 2015, this study investigates whether the use of financial derivatives of U.S. bank holding companies affects distance-to-default, a measure of a bank’s chance of defaulting. My results show that total derivatives and total derivatives for trading purposes do not have any statistically significant impact on distance-to-default. There is, however, a statistically significant correlation between total derivatives for non-trading purposes and distance-to-default. More exposure to total non-trading derivatives decreases distance-to- default, thus making a bank holding company riskier. Further analysis of the results shows that, after the initiation of the Dodd-Frank Act, more exposure to credit derivatives will decrease distance-to-default, therefore increasing the riskiness of a bank holding company.
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Walljee, Raabia. "The Levy-LIBOR model with default risk". Thesis, Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/96957.
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Thesis (MSc)--Stellenbosch University, 2015ENGLISH ABSTRACT : In recent years, the use of Lévy processes as a modelling tool has come to be viewed more favourably than the use of the classical Brownian motion setup. The reason for this is that these processes provide more flexibility and also capture more of the ’real world’ dynamics of the model. Hence the use of Lévy processes for financial modelling is a motivating factor behind this research presentation. As a starting point a framework for the LIBOR market model with dynamics driven by a Lévy process instead of the classical Brownian motion setup is presented. When modelling LIBOR rates the use of a more realistic driving process is important since these rates are the most realistic interest rates used in the market of financial trading on a daily basis. Since the financial crisis there has been an increasing demand and need for efficient modelling and management of risk within the market. This has further led to the motivation of the use of Lévy based models for the modelling of credit risky financial instruments. The motivation stems from the basic properties of stationary and independent increments of Lévy processes. With these properties, the model is able to better account for any unexpected behaviour within the market, usually referred to as "jumps". Taking both of these factors into account, there is much motivation for the construction of a model driven by Lévy processes which is able to model credit risk and credit risky instruments. The model for LIBOR rates driven by these processes was first introduced by Eberlein and Özkan (2005) and is known as the Lévy-LIBOR model. In order to account for the credit risk in the market, the Lévy-LIBOR model with default risk was constructed. This was initially done by Kluge (2005) and then formally introduced in the paper by Eberlein et al. (2006). This thesis aims to present the theoretical construction of the model as done in the above mentioned references. The construction includes the consideration of recovery rates associated to the default event as well as a pricing formula for some popular credit derivatives.
AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING : In onlangse jare, is die gebruik van Lévy-prosesse as ’n modellerings instrument baie meer gunstig gevind as die gebruik van die klassieke Brownse bewegingsproses opstel. Die rede hiervoor is dat hierdie prosesse meer buigsaamheid verskaf en die dinamiek van die model wat die praktyk beskryf, beter hierin vervat word. Dus is die gebruik van Lévy-prosesse vir finansiële modellering ’n motiverende faktor vir hierdie navorsingsaanbieding. As beginput word ’n raamwerk vir die LIBOR mark model met dinamika, gedryf deur ’n Lévy-proses in plaas van die klassieke Brownse bewegings opstel, aangebied. Wanneer LIBOR-koerse gemodelleer word is die gebruik van ’n meer realistiese proses belangriker aangesien hierdie koerse die mees realistiese koerse is wat in die finansiële mark op ’n daaglikse basis gebruik word. Sedert die finansiële krisis was daar ’n toenemende aanvraag en behoefte aan doeltreffende modellering en die bestaan van risiko binne die mark. Dit het verder gelei tot die motivering van Lévy-gebaseerde modelle vir die modellering van finansiële instrumente wat in die besonder aan kridietrisiko onderhewig is. Die motivering spruit uit die basiese eienskappe van stasionêre en onafhanklike inkremente van Lévy-prosesse. Met hierdie eienskappe is die model in staat om enige onverwagte gedrag (bekend as spronge) vas te vang. Deur hierdie faktore in ag te neem, is daar genoeg motivering vir die bou van ’n model gedryf deur Lévy-prosesse wat in staat is om kredietrisiko en instrumente onderhewig hieraan te modelleer. Die model vir LIBOR-koerse gedryf deur hierdie prosesse was oorspronklik bekendgestel deur Eberlein and Özkan (2005) en staan beken as die Lévy-LIBOR model. Om die kredietrisiko in die mark te akkommodeer word die Lévy-LIBOR model met "default risk" gekonstrueer. Dit was aanvanklik deur Kluge (2005) gedoen en formeel in die artikel bekendgestel deur Eberlein et al. (2006). Die doel van hierdie tesis is om die teoretiese konstruksie van die model aan te bied soos gedoen in die bogenoemde verwysings. Die konstruksie sluit ondermeer in die terugkrygingskoers wat met die wanbetaling geassosieer word, sowel as ’n prysingsformule vir ’n paar bekende krediet afgeleide instrumente.
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Zeitun, Rami M. A. "Firm performance and default risk for publicly listed companies in emerging markets : a case study of Jordan". Thesis, View thesis, 2006. http://handle.uws.edu.au:8081/1959.7/35666.
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This thesis examines the determinants of corporate performance and likelihood of default of Jordanian publicly listed companies. Despite the large body of work that has investigated the determinants of corporate performance and default, no comprehensive study has emerged in an emerging market. Indeed, most of the empirical research on corporate performance and failure has been conducted in the developed markets such as the USA and the UK. This is the first rigorous and comprehensive study to examine empirically the determinants of corporate performance and failure of the publicly listed companies in an emerging market of Jordan. Also, it is the first study to present evidence on the determinants of corporate performance and failure in the Jordanian market using microeconomic and macroeconomic variables. Another objective of the research is to investigate the effect of the two financial systems on corporate health, since two banking systems operate in Jordan. It is also the objective of this thesis to investigate the effects of external shocks on Jordanian corporate performance and failure, especially those occurring within the Middle East region such as the Gulf Crisis 1990-1991 and the outbreak of the Intifadah in September 2000. Our study uses time-series and cross-sectional data of the publicly traded companies on the Amman Stock Exchange over the period 1989-2003. The study examines the determinants of capital structure and corporate performance using the random effects model and the pooled ordinary least squares (OLS) regression method. The study also examines the determinants of corporate failure (default) using the Logit model. A firm’s tangibility is found to have a positive and significant impact on a firm’s capital structure, while it has a negative impact on the short-term debt to total assets ratio. Firm profitability, liquidity, and stock market activity are found to have a negative and significant impact on a firm’s capital structure. The analyses show that a firm’s capital structure is negatively and significantly related to corporate performance, but positively and significantly related to its failure. The Gulf Crisis 1990-1991 had a positive impact on corporate performance, while the outbreak of Intifadah had a negative effect on corporate performance. The study also highlighted the importance of industrial sectors in determining corporate performance. Ownership concentration measured by the largest five shareholders was found to be positively and significantly related to corporate failure in both the cross-sectional sample and the panel data sample. The analysis also found that there is a non-linear relationship between a firm’s performance value and ownership structure. Another important finding is that Islamic banks' credit has an important and significant impact in increasing a firm’s performance measure return on assets (ROA). Unexpected changes in interest rates are found to be negatively and significantly related to corporate default (failure). This implies that corporate performance and distress, or insolvency, are affected by their capital structure, ownership structure, cash flow, and macroeconomic variables.
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Kim, Yeo Hwan. "Default risk as a factor affecting the earnings response coefficient : a comparative study of the US and South Korea". Thesis, Queensland University of Technology, 2002.
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Neill, Jon Patraic. "Credit Default Swaps Regulation and the Use of Collateralized Mortgage Obligations in U.S. Financial Institutions". ScholarWorks, 2011. https://scholarworks.waldenu.edu/dissertations/1135.
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The fast and easy global movement of capital throughout the financial system, from lenders to borrowers and through intermediaries and financial market participants, has been recognized as a source of instability associated with illiquidity and financial crises. The purpose of this research was to better understand how regulation either enables or constrains capital movement. The theoretical framework comprised 2 contrasting public policymaking models, Arrow's rational-comprehensive model and Kingdon's garbage can model, which were used to derive opposing hypotheses. The research question addressed the nature of the relationship between Credit Default Swaps (CDSs) regulations and the flow of capital into Collateralized Mortgage Obligations (CMOs) when lenders share their borrower-related loan risks through intermediaries with other market participants. This quantitative study was a quasiexperimental time series design incorporating an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model using secondary data published by the U.S. government. The 2 independent variables were regulatory periods involving 2 CDSs regulations and the dependent variable was capital in the U.S. financial system that is deployed to CMOs. The Commodity Futures Modernization Act of 2000's ARIMA model (1,2,1) was significant at p < .05 and was negatively correlated to the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008's ARIMA model (1,1,0), r = -.91, n = 18, p < .001. These results suggest that regulations cannot be relaxed and then reinstated with predictable results. The potential for positive social change is from stable financial institutions that mutually benefit depositors and borrowers.
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De, Villiers Johan. "Simulation-based valuation of project finance investments in sub-Saharan Africa and its effects on net present value and default probabilities". Master's thesis, University of Cape Town, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/28974.
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This paper addresses the issue surrounding the valuation of valuing large-scale infrastructure projects located in emerging and frontier market countries. These are economies which, traditionally, have been characterised as having high levels of risk and uncertainty, thus presenting a significant challenge to capital allocation decisions and the associated theme of narrowing the finance gap. In light of this, a case study is used to investigate the impact that simulation has on the valuation of an actual infrastructure project located in a sub-Saharan African economy. Specifically, a Monte Carlo simulation-based cash flow model is presented of an investment into a renewable energy project located in South Africa. Results of the simulation process indicate the degree to which certain variables affect the output factors, juxtaposed with an initial base case. A clear need is established for a more sophisticated valuation method in order to accurately judge the investment opportunity and Monte Carlo simulation is presented as a viable solution.