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Müller-Trede, Johannes. "Advisors and groups: essays in social decision making". Doctoral thesis, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/10803/81075.
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The three chapters of this thesis investigate social aspects of judgment and decision making. Chapter One analyses the consequences of making decisions based on predictions of future well-being, and the conditions under which advice can improve these decisions. It shows that an interaction between errors in affective forecasts and the choice process leads to suboptimal decisions and disappointment, and establishes conditions under which advice reduces these effects. The second chapter investigates the boundaries of the result that eliciting more than one estimate from the same person and averaging these can lead to accuracy gains in judgment tasks. It reveals that the technique works only for specific kinds of questions, and people are reluctant to average their initial answers when asked for a final estimate. Finally, Chapter Three reviews experimental results regarding individual and small group behaviour in strategic decision tasks and provides a theoretical framework to analyse the observed differences.Aquesta tesi investiga diferents aspectes socials de la presa de decisions. El primer capítol analitza les decisions preses en base a les prediccions del benestar futur, i en quines situacions els consells d’altres persones poden millorar aquestes decisions. Es mostra que una interacció entre el procés de l’elecció i les imperfeccions de les prediccions condueix a decisions subòptimes i a la decepció, i s’estableixen les condicions sota les quals els consells redueixen aquests efectes. El segon capítol investigaels casos en què les persones poden millorar les seves prediccions numèriques donant més d’una estimació i prenent-ne la mitjana. A base d’un experiment, es mostra que la tècnica funciona només amb determinats tipus de preguntes, i que les persones són averses a prendre mitjanes de les seves estimacions inicials quan es pregunta per una estimació final. L’últim capítol revisa els resultats experimentals referents a la presa de decisions estratègiques de la persona individual comparats amb els de la persona que forma part d’un grup reduït i proporciona un marc teòric en el que analitza les diferències que s’observen en el seu comportament
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Tatlılıoğlu, Kasım. "DECISIONS AND DECISION MAKING STRATEGIES IN ADOLESCENTS". Thesis, Національний авіаційний університет, 2017. https://er.nau.edu.ua/handle/NAU/48998.
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Tatlılıoğlu, Kasım. "DECISIONS AND DECISION MAKING STRATEGIES IN ADOLESCENTS". Thesis, Національний авіаційний університет, 2017. http://er.nau.edu.ua/handle/NAU/30617.
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Guerriere, Denise Noelle. "Measuring decisional conflict in substitute decision makers, mothers' decisions about initiating gastrostomy tube feeding in children". Thesis, National Library of Canada = Bibliothèque nationale du Canada, 1998. http://www.collectionscanada.ca/obj/s4/f2/dsk1/tape11/PQDD_0009/NQ41431.pdf.
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Jakobsson, Marianne. "Decisions with Medium to Long-Term Consequences : Decision Processes and Structures". Doctoral thesis, Stockholms universitet, Psykologiska institutionen, 2013. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:su:diva-95260.
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All of us make more or less important decisions during our entire lives, in private and professional arenas. Some decisions have consequences for an individual or organization in the short term, others have long lasting consequences. This thesis concerns studies of decision processes and structures involved indecision-making with medium to long-term consequences for an organization or individual. Study I and II focus decision-making theory and judgments in procurement. Study III concerns real-life, individual career decision-making. Study I used a laboratory context for an investigation of willingness to pay (WP) for the creation of a procurement offer. Study II investigated organizational decision processes and structures of procurement of large projects in a nuclear power plant organization. Study III investigated the decision process used to make a choice between two professional training programs leading to psychotherapist certification. Study I found, that participants used a multiplicative combination of probability and profit when judging WP for the creation of a bid. Scales of subjective probability had smaller ranges than objective probability. In this context, participants were more sensitive to variation in monetary value than to probability. In Study, II it was possible to describe the procurement process in a framework of information search and decision theory. A Multi Attribute Utility Theory-inspired model was used by the staff, in the evaluations of procurement alternatives. Both compensatory (e.g. negative aspects can be compensated by positive aspects) and non-compensatory (particular “pass” levels of attributes have to be exceeded for acceptance of a choice alternative) decision rules were used. In study III it was found that a development and extension of Differentiation and Consolidation theory described individual reasons pro and con alternatives before and after the choice of a professional training program.At the time of the doctoral defense, the following paper was unpublished and had a status as follows: Paper 1: Submitted.
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Enoch, John. "Application of Decision Analytic Methods to Cloud Adoption Decisions". Thesis, Högskolan i Gävle, Avdelningen för Industriell utveckling, IT och Samhällsbyggnad, 2017. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:hig:diva-25560.
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This thesis gives an example of how decision analytic methods can be applied to choices in the adoption of cloud computing. The lifecycle of IT systems from planning to retirement is rapidly changing. Making a technology decision that can be justified and explained in terms of outcomes and benefits can be increasingly challenging without a systematic approach underlying the decision making process. It is proposed that better, more informed cloud adoption decisions would be taken if organisations used a structured approach to frame the problem to be solved and then applied trade-offs using an additive utility model. The trade-offs that can be made in the context of cloud adoption decisions are typically complex and rarely intuitively obvious. A structured approach is beneficial in that it enables decision makers to define and seek outcomes that deliver optimum benefits, aligned with their risk profile. The case study demonstrated that proven decision tools are helpful to decision makers faced with a complex cloud adoption decision but are likely to be more suited to the more intractable decision situations.
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Müller, Daniel [Verfasser]. "Decision support for liner shipping network decisions / Daniel Müller". Paderborn : Universitätsbibliothek, 2018. http://d-nb.info/1171897642/34.
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Platts, Danielle. "Patients' decision making processes for uncertain, risky medical decisions". Thesis, University of Sheffield, 2016. http://etheses.whiterose.ac.uk/17546/.
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O'REILLY, CAROLYN STOTZ. "SPECIAL EDUCATION PLACEMENT DECISIONS: A BEHAVIORAL DECISION THEORY PERSPECTIVE". Diss., The University of Arizona, 1986. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/183983.
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Despite the large number of special education eligibility determinations in which school psychologists are involved, and the great deal of integration and interpretation of information that these decisions require, few investigations of the cognitive strategies that school psychologists utilize in assessing placement candidates have been reported. The purpose of this study was to examine the susceptibility of school psychologists to placement decision bias. Specifically, the influence of referral information on school psychologists' subsequent evaluation and classification of a special education candidate was tested. Forty currently practicing school psychologists evaluated a bogus psychological report allegedly written about a child referred for either Gifted or Learning Disabilities (LD) placement consideration. Although all assessment data were identical, the school psychologists receiving a Gifted referral were more likely to classify the child as Gifted, and those receiving an LD referral were more likely to classify the child as LD. Additionally, the school psychologists recalled and weighted the importance of assessment data in a referral-consistent manner.
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McCleary, Nicola. "Relationships between perceived decision difficulty, decision time, and decision appropriateness in General Practitioners' clinical decision-making". Thesis, University of Aberdeen, 2015. http://digitool.abdn.ac.uk:80/webclient/DeliveryManager?pid=229003.
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The aim of this project was to use patient scenarios (clinical/case vignettes) to explore three aspects of General Practitioners' (GPs') clinical decision-making: how difficult decisions are perceived to be, the time taken to make decisions, and the appropriateness of decisions relative to evidence-based clinical guideline recommendations. A systematic review synthesised the results of published scenario studies. A secondary analysis of scenario studies which investigated antibiotic prescribing for upper respiratory tract infection (URTI) and x-ray referral for low back pain was performed. Relationships between the three aspects of decision-making were investigated, and scenario and GP characteristics associated with these aspects were identified. An online scenario study further refined these relationships for two specific URTI types: sore throat and otitis media. Cognitive processes involved in clinical decision-making were investigated in a Think-Aloud interview study, where GPs verbalised their thoughts while making prescribing decisions for URTI scenarios. There was some evidence that inappropriate antibiotic prescribing for URTI was associated with greater decision difficulty and longer decision time. Decisions made using a more effortful cognitive process may therefore be less likely to be appropriate. Illness durations of four or more days and, in otitis media, unilateral ear examination findings were related to inappropriate prescribing. Based on these results, suggestions have been made for informing the design of interventions to support GPs in making appropriate decisions. A secondary aim was to provide an overview of the methodology and reporting of scenario studies. The systematic review indicated a lack of consistency in methodologies, while reporting is often inadequate. Formats less similar to real consultations (e.g. written scenarios) are commonly used: the results of studies using these formats may be less likely to reflect real practice decision-making than studies using more realistic formats (e.g. videos). Based on these findings, methodological recommendations for scenario studies have been developed.
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Polk, Thomas E. "Decision making strategies : the influence of task complexity, decision importance, decision maker impulsivity, and decision maker gender /". Thesis, This resource online, 1990. http://scholar.lib.vt.edu/theses/available/etd-03122009-040747/.
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SARMENTO, Rafaella Azevedo de Lucena. "Decision Theory in the automotive market". Universidade Federal de Pernambuco, 2011. https://repositorio.ufpe.br/handle/123456789/4958.
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Azevedo de Lucena Sarmento, Rafaella; Menezes Campello de Souza, Fernando. Decision Theory in the automotive market. 2011. Dissertação (Mestrado). Programa de Pós-Graduação em Engenharia de Produção, Universidade Federal de Pernambuco, Recife, 2011.
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Sequeira, Movin. "Developing decision-support tools for evaluation of manufacturing reshoring decisions". Licentiate thesis, Tekniska Högskolan, Jönköping University, JTH, Industriell produktutveckling, produktion och design, 2020. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:hj:diva-48263.
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During last three decades, companies have offshored their manufacturing activities across international borders in order to pursue lower manufacturing costs. Despite having accomplished their purpose, companies have also suffered from issues, especially poor quality of products and a poor response to customer demand. Therefore, companies consider relocating some of the manufacturing activities back to the home country, a process that is known as manufacturing reshoring. There is paucity of scholarly attention on how manufacturing reshoring decisions are evaluated and supported. Therefore, the purpose of this thesis is to develop decision-support tools to evaluate manufacturing reshoring decisions. In order to fulfil this, it is important to know how industry experts reason while making manufacturing reshoring decisions (RQ1), and how their reasoning can be modeled into decision-support tools (RQ2). Therefore, three studies were conducted including a multiple case study and two modeling studies. The multiple case study addressed the criteria that are considered by the industry experts in these decisions, while the two modeling studies, based on fuzzy logic and analytical hierarchy process (AHP), used a part of these criteria to develop decision-support tools. The findings indicate that a holistic set of criteria were considered by industry experts in arriving at a manufacturing reshoring decision. A large portion of these criteria occur within competitive priority category and among them, high importance is given to quality, while low importance to sustainability. Fuzzy logic modeling was used to model the criteria from the perspective of competitive priority at an overall level. Three fuzzy logic concepts were developed to capture industry experts’ reasoning and facilitate modeling of manufacturing reshoring decisions. Furthermore, two configurations and sixteen settings were developed, of which, the best ones were identified. AHP-based tools were used to capture experts’ reasoning of the competitive priority criteria by comparing the criteria. It was observed that fuzzy logic-based tools are able to better emulate industry experts’ reasoning of manufacturing reshoring. This research contributes to theory with a holistic framework of reshoring decision criteria, and to practice with decision-support tools for evaluation of manufacturing reshoring decisions.Under de tre senaste decennierna har många företag flyttat sin produktion till lågkostnadsländer för att kunna utnyttja lägre lönekostnader. Många gånger har företagen genom denna åtgärd lyckats sänka sin tillverkningskostnad men samtidigt drabbats av oförutsedda problem kopplat till exempelvis produkt-kvalitet och möjligheten att kundanpassa produkter. Hanteringen av problemen har lett till ytterligare kostnader som många gånger överstigit besparingen i tillverkningskostnad. Detta har lett till att allt fler företag börjat flytta tillbaka sin produktion till hemlandet, så kallad reshoring. Reshoring är ett ungt område där det saknas forskning gällande bland annat hur den här typen av beslut på bästa sätt kan utvärderas och vilken typ av beslutstöd som kan underlätta den här typen av beslut. Därför är syftet med den här avhandlingen är att utveckla beslutsstödverktyg för utvärdering av reshoring beslut. För att uppfylla syftet har två forskningsfrågor formulerats. Den första frågan handlar om hur industriexperter resonerar kring reshoring beslut (RQ1) medan den andra frågan handlar om hur deras resonemang kan modelleras i beslutsstödverktyg (RQ2). Tre studier har genomförts för att besvara forskningsfrågorna, en fallstudie och två modelleringsstudier. Fallstudien fokuserar på att identifiera vilka kriterier som industriexperter beaktar medan modelleringsstudierna fokuserar på att utveckla beslutstödsverktyg där en del av dessa kriterier beaktas, med hjälp av fuzzy logic och analytical hierarchy process (AHP). Resultaten från forskningen visar att industriexperter bedömer reshoring beslut utifrån ett holistiskt perspektiv. En stor del av dessa beslutskriterier finns inom konkurrenskraft kategorin och inom dessa, har industriexperterna lagt högst vikt på kvalitet och lägst vikt på hållbarhet. Genom fuzzy logic modellering modellerades kriterierna på en övergripande nivå. Tre nya fuzzy logic koncept utvecklades för att fånga experternas resonemang. Dessutom utvecklades två konfigurationer med sexton olika inställningar, och de bästa identifierades. AHP-baserade verktyg utvecklades för att fånga experternas resonemang om kriterierna för konkurrenskraft prioriteringar. Fuzzy logic-baserade verktyg kan bättre fånga experternas resonemang kring reshoring beslut. Denna forskning bidrar till teori med en holistisk lista över beslutskriterier för reshoring beslut, och till praktik med beslutsstöd verktyg för utvärdering av reshoring beslut.
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Mertens, Daniel P. "Backing into decisions: A study of thresholds in decision-making". Diss., The University of Arizona, 2003. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/280369.
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Strategic decisions involving mergers and acquisitions often hinge on one or two critical evaluations. Similarly, when hiring a new manager, potential candidates are often rejected if they are lacking on a critical dimension. In my dissertation, I examined the way in which these critical dimensions are used to screen decision alternatives. Specifically, I am examining the nature of Image Theory's violation and rejection thresholds (the compatibility test) in the screening and elimination of undesirable decision options. In contrast to traditional decision theory, which focuses on choice (i.e., maximization of expected value), recent studies suggest that pre-choice screening of options may account for the greater part of one's decision activities and that choice serves merely to select the best of the options that survive screening. The point of the present research is to explore the variables that influence decision makers' appraisal of option compatibility. For example, I determined one such variable as the "killer variable", which is a feature of an option that is extreme in nature (wholly unacceptable or acceptable) to the decision maker. Its inclusion, regardless of the attractiveness of the rest of the option's features, counteracts usual decisions. My research also determined that individual features have the ability to effect the rejection, as well as the violation, threshold. My research tests this and similar hypotheses about screening.
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Andriyas, Sanyogita. "Analysis of Irrigation Decision Behavior and Forecasting Future Irrigation Decisions". DigitalCommons@USU, 2012. https://digitalcommons.usu.edu/etd/1359.
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Farmers play a pivotal role in food production. To be economically successful, farmers must make many decisions during the course of a growing season about the allocation of inputs to production. For farmers in arid regions, one of these decisions is whether to irrigate. This research is the first of its kind to investigate the reasons that drive a farmer to make irrigation decisions and use those reasons/factors to forecast future irrigation decisions. This study can help water managers and canal operators to estimate short-term irrigation demands, thereby gaining information that might be useful in management of irrigation supply systems. This work presents three approaches to study farmer irrigation behavior: Bayesian belief networks (BBNs), decision trees, and hidden Markov models (HMMs). All three models are in the class of evolutionary algorithms, which are often used to analyze problems in dynamic and uncertain environments. These algorithms learn the connections between observed input and output data and can make predictions about future events. The models were used to study behavior of farmers in the Canal B command area, located in the Lower Sevier River Basin, Delta, Utah. Alfalfa, barley, and corn are the major crops in this area. Biophysical variables that are measured during the growing reasons were used as inputs to build the models. Information about crop phenology, soil moisture, and weather variables were compiled. Information about timing of irrigation events was available from soil moisture probes installed on some agricultural fields at the site. The models were capable of identifying the variables that are important in forecasting an irrigation decision, classes of farmers, and decisions with single and multi-factor effect regarding farmer behavior. The models did this across years and crops. The advantage of using these models to study a complex problem like behavior is that they do not require exact information, which can never be completely obtained, given the complexity of the problem. This study uses biophysical inputs to forecast decisions about water use. Such forecasts cannot be done satisfactorily using survey methodologies. The study reveals irrigation behavior characteristics. These conform to previous beliefs that a farmer might look at crop conditions, consult a neighbor, or irrigate on a weekend if he has a job during the week. When presented with new data, these models gave good estimates for probable days of irrigation, given the past behavior. All three models can be adequately used to explore farmers' irrigation behavior for a given site. They are capable of answering questions related to the driving forces of irrigation decisions and the classes of subjects involved in a complex process.
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Sudhaakar, Swathi Priyadarshini. "Multiscale Decision Making for Multiple Decision Alternatives". Thesis, Virginia Tech, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/10919/19236.
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In organizations with decision makers across multiple hierarchical levels, conflicting objectives are commonly observed. The decision maker, or agent, at the highest level usually makes decisions in the interest of the organization, while a subordinate agent may have a conflict of interest between taking a course of action that is best for the organization and the course of action that is best for itself. The Multiscale Decision-Making (MSDM) model was established by Wernz (2008). The model has been developed to capture interactions in multi-agent systems, by integrating both the hierarchical and temporal scale of decisions made in organizations.
This thesis contributes towards expanding the results in the hierarchical interaction domain of MSDM by extending the model to incorporate N decision alternatives and outcomes instead of two, and studying its effect on the interaction between agents.
We consider decisions with uncertain outcomes, where the outcomes of the decisions made by agents lower in hierarchy affect the transition probabilities of the decisions made by agents above them in hierarchy. This leads to a game theoretic situation, where the lower-level agents need to be sufficiently incentivized in order to shift their best response strategy to one in the interest of their superior and the organization. Mathematical expressions for the optimal incentives at each hierarchical level are developed.
We analyze systems with agents interacting across two and three organizational levels. We then study the effect of introducing the cost of taking an action on the optimal incentives. We discuss a health care application of MSDM.
Master of Science
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Johnson, Jeffrey Jay. "Supporting decision-making with organizational decision memory". Diss., The University of Arizona, 1993. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/186332.
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Although organizational memory remains a relatively ill-defined construct, information systems developers seem anxious to build software that is intended to facilitate its development and use. The construct seems to consist of concepts from organizational theory, information systems design, and decision support. Decision support is one of the commonly proposed uses of organizational memory, and a common justification for efforts to build information systems to support organizational memory. Yet, the broad range of information that might be stored in and recalled from an organization's memory makes it difficult to define requirements for an automated organizational memory system. This dissertation describes the design and implementation of a laboratory experiment aimed at discovering whether information about historic decision making behavior could be useful to decision makers in organizations. Several hypotheses were tested. The first is that information about decision-making behavior from the past will lead decision makers to make better decisions in the present. Second, the experiment tested the hypothesis that historic information from an organizational (collective) source would be more helpful to decision makers than similar information from an individual source. These hypotheses were supported. Third, it was hypothesized that historic decision information, presented in the format of a linear regression model would be more helpful to decision makers than similar information in a textual format. This hypothesis was not supported. Additionally, hypotheses were tested concerning the relative benefits of collective and individual sources of historic information versus no historic information, and comparing the benefits of the regression format and textual format versus no historic information. The findings indicated that the information from a collective source provided better decision support than no historic information, but information from the individual source was not significantly superior to no historic information. Further, the information in the textual format was significantly better than no information, but the regression format was not significantly better than no historic information. In general, the findings indicate that historic decision information can lead decision makers to make better decisions, but source of information and the presentation format are important variables affecting the extent of the benefit.
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Lou, Wei Wei. "A Non-decision-reaching Decision-making process". PDXScholar, 1995. https://pdxscholar.library.pdx.edu/open_access_etds/1193.
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Decision-making processes are among the most important activities within human organizations. This dissertation is a case study of decision-making in the review of high school graduation standards in an urban school district. The review process lasted three years and was terminated before any decision was reached concerning graduation standards. The purpose of this study is to answer three questions: Why would a decision-making process be terminated before any results are achieved? Under what circumstances do decision makers choose to let the process die? What do such decision making processes reveal about the organization? This case study employs the rational choice model, the process model, and the organizational decision-making model. These three models are constructed within the theoretical frameworks of systems science, sociology, and political science, and also draw upon the literatures of education reform and organization theory. Define a NDR (non-decision-reaching) decision-making process as one which produces no outcome. The rational choice model suggests that the NDR outcome in this case was the best alternative under the circumstances. Two obstacles, insufficient resources and external uncertainties, were identified as important factors which led decision makers to choose the NDR outcome over other alternatives. The process model suggests that a decision outcome may not be necessary in many organizational decision-making processes, as the process itself is often significant and sufficient. The process accommodates, to some extent, the interests of the decision makers even without a definite outcome. The organizational decision-making model posits that organizational rules and procedures dictate decision-making processes, and that organizational interests will determine the nature and the outcome of such processes. In this model the NDR outcome is the result of organizational interests that no decision be reached. The conclusions of this case study indicate that a loose structural relationship among the decision makers was a major cause of the NDR outcome. In addition, the decision makers had never fully reconciled their differences regarding the nature of the decision problem. The changing environment of public education is also identified as a factor leading to the NDR outcome.
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Parvar, Jamshid. "Neural networks decision support system : : decision to bid". Thesis, University of Manchester, 2003. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.488266.
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Vlassis, Stamatis S. "Intelligent decision aid for multi criteria decision analysis". Thesis, University of Warwick, 1997. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.287679.
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Grevet, Jean-Louis M. "Decision aiding and coordination in decision-making organizations". Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1988. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/14670.
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Massie, Anna Elizabeth. "Designing a graphical decision support tool to improve system acquisition decisions". Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2009. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/51632.
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Thesis (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Aeronautics and Astronautics, 2009.Includes bibliographical references (p. 130-133).
System acquisition decision makers are frequently charged with choosing a single system from a set of feasible possibilities that could best fulfill the needs of their organizations. While numerous rules and regulations are already in place for both commercial and government acquisitions to ensure the acquisitions are conducted fairly, decision makers need greater support than rules and regulations alone can provide. The acquisition decision is a complex data analysis problem, where the decision maker must analyze multiple candidate systems on a number of performance and cost metrics. To understand this multivariate environment, decision makers must analyze the system data at multiple levels of reasoning. This research proposes a decision support tool that best supports system acquisition decision makers by providing them with graphical representations displaying how well candidate systems fulfill their organizations' needs. System acquisition decisions require support of three basic levels of reasoning (Data Processing, Information Aggregation, and Knowledge Synthesis) in order to perform system trade-offs on relevant system metrics. To test how well decision support tools could support system acquisition decision makers, two graphical decision support tools were designed: a traditional separable display and a new configural display named Fan Visualization (FanVis). To compare the effectiveness of FanVis against a traditional separable display, an experiment was conducted where participants answered a series of system acquisition questions across the three levels of reasoning.
(cont.) Analysis of the experimental results indicate that FanVis and the separable displays support a system acquisition decision maker, but to different degrees across the three levels of reasoning. Comparatively, participants tended to have higher performance on Knowledge Synthesis tasks using FanVis, while they tended to have a higher performance on Data Processing tasks using the separable display. When examining subjective measures, FanVis was the preferred tool of choice. Through use of an eye tracking device, it was further determined that participants also exhibited erratic fixation patterns on those questions that were answered incorrectly compared to those answered correctly. Further, it was determined that FanVis allowed participants to maintain more efficient gaze patterns regardless of task, whereas participants used less efficient gaze patterns in the separable display for some tasks. Additionally, participants tended to spend a greater frequency of time fixating on relevant elements in FanVis while completing Knowledge Synthesis tasks, while the opposite was true for Data Processing tasks, suggesting that performance and time spent fixating on relevant information is correlated. From the results of this experiment, a set of design implications was created for future system acquisition decision support tools.
by Anna Elizabeth Massie.
S.M.
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Burnett, Sulene. "A simplified numerical decision making toolbox for physical asset management decisions". Thesis, Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/85626.
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Thesis (MEng)--Stellenbosch University, 2013.ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The management of physical assets has become a popular eld of study over recent years and is being acknowledged in multiple disciplines world wide. In this project, research on Physical Asset Management (PAM), maintenance and decision making are presented. PAM is a complex subject and requires the participation of multiple disciplines in order to successfully manage physical assets. Moreover, the management of maintenance makes a big contribution in achieving successful PAM. Decision making is a core element to manage maintenance e ciently, both on strategic and operational level. Various methods and techniques can be used to aid the decision making process such as, using past experience, xed decision making techniques and techniques involving numerical calculations, to mention only a few. However, using numerical calculations to make decisions are not very popular. This is due to various reasons, for example the inherent complexity of the mathematics and the time required to execute such calculations are disliked. People tend to avoid complex numerical calculations and rather rely on past experience and discussion of circulating opinions to make decisions. This is not ideal and can lead to inconsistent and inaccurate decisions. In this project, the importance of numerical decision making is researched, especially in maintenance related decisions. The focus is placed on the simpli cation of numerical decision making techniques with the aim to make it easy and quick to use to support operational PAM decisions. Di erent decisions regarding PAM, especially decisions with regards to managing maintenance in order to achieve PAM, are discussed by means of a literature study. This is done to clarify the applicability of using numerical decision making techniques to support this type of decisions. A few di erent available numerical techniques are highlighted that can be used to support the decision making process. The decisions together with numerical decision making techniques are evaluated in order to combine the most appropriate techniques in a simpli ed manner. The purpose of this is that it can be used by anyone with the necessary knowledge of a speci c system or operation. As a result a simpli ed numerical decision making toolbox is developed that can support maintenance related decision. This toolbox is applied to a real life situation by means of a case study, made possible by Anglo American Platinum Limited (Amplats). An evaluation and validation of the toolbox is done through the case study to conclude wether it has value in practice or not.
AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die bestuur van siese bates het die afgelope paar jaar 'n gewilde studieveld geword en word erken in verskeie dissiplines reg oor die w^ereld. In hierdie projek word navorsing gedoen oor Fisiese Bate Bestuur (FBB), instandhouding en besluitneming. FBB is 'n komplekse onderwerp en vereis die deelname van verskeie dissiplines om sukses te behaal. Die bestuur van instandhouding maak 'n groot bydrae tot suksesvolle FBB. 'n Kern element van doeltre ende instandhouding is besluitneming, beide op strategiese en operasionele vlak. Verskillende metodes en tegnieke kan gebruik word om die besluitnemingsproses te ondersteun soos byvoorbeeld om gebruik te maak van ondervinding en vorige gebeurtenisse, vaste besluitnemingstegnieke, tegnieke wat numeriese berekeninge gebruik en nog meer. Die gebruik van numeriese metodes om besluite te neem is nie baie gewild nie. Dit is as gevolg van verskeie redes soos byvoorbeeld die inherente kompleksiteit en ingewikkeldheid van die wiskunde en ook die tyd wat benodig word om sulke berekeninge uit te voer. Mense is geneig om ingewikkelde numeriese berekeninge te vermy en eerder staat te maak op vorige ervaring en die bespreking van menings om besluite te neem. Dit is nie ideaal nie en kan lei tot onkonsekwente besluite, of selfs verkeerde besluite. In hierdie projek is die belangrikheid van numeriese besluitneming nagevors, veral in die onderhoudsverwante besluite. Die fokus word geplaas op die vereenvoudiging van die numeriese besluitnemings tegnieke. Die doel is om dit op so 'n manier te vereenvoudig dat dit maklik en vinnig is om te gebruik vir operasionele FBB besluite. Verskillende besluite oor FBB, veral besluite met betrekking tot instandhouding om suksesvolle FBB te bereik, word bespreek deur middel van 'n literatuurstudie. Die literatuurstudie ondersoek die toepaslikheid van die gebruik van numeriese besluitnemingstegnieke vir hierdie soort besluite. 'n Paar verskillende beskikbare numeriese tegnieke wat gebruik kan word om die besluitnemingsproses te ondersteun word uitgelig. Die besluite, saam met numeriese besluitnemingtegnieke, word ge evalueer om die mees gepaste tegnieke te kombineer in 'n vereenvoudigde manier. Uiteindelik moet dit deur enige iemand met die nodige kennis van 'n spesi eke stelsel of proses gebruik kan word. As resultaat is 'n vereenvoudigde numeriese besluitnemingstegniekkombinasie ontwikkel wat besluite verwant aan instandhouding kan ondersteun. Hierdie tegniek-kombinasie word toegepas in 'n werklike situasie deur middel van 'n gevallestudie, wat moontlik gemaak is deur Anglo American Platinum Limited. 'n Evaluering en validering van die tegniek-kombinasie word gedoen in die gevallestudie om te bepaal of dit wel waarde het in die praktyk of nie.
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Loo, Steve C. K. (Chung Keung Steve) Carleton University Dissertation Management Studies. "An examination of the decision making process in AMT investment decisions". Ottawa, 1987.
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Olson, Erik Lee. "Computer-assisted decision aids in difficult decision environments: Factors which enhance the probability of decision errors and decision error impact on subjective evaluations of the decision aid". Case Western Reserve University School of Graduate Studies / OhioLINK, 1992. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=case1056551622.
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Gerhart, Natalie. "Decision-Making with Big Information: The Relationship between Decision Context, Stopping Rules, and Decision Performance". Thesis, University of North Texas, 2016. https://digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc862880/.
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Ubiquitous computing results in access to vast amounts of data, which is changing the way humans interact with each other, with computers, and with their environments. Information is literally at our fingertips with touchscreen technology, but it is not valuable until it is understood. As a result, selecting which information to use in a decision process is a challenge in the current information environment (Lu & Yuan, 2011). The purpose of this dissertation was to investigate how individual decision makers, in different decision contexts, determine when to stop collecting information given the availability of virtually unlimited information.
Decision makers must make an ultimate decision, but also must make a decision that he or she has enough information to make the final decision (Browne, Pitts, & Wetherbe, 2007). In determining how much information to collect, researchers found that people engage in ‘satisficing' in order to make decisions, particularly when there is more information than it is possible to manage (Simon, 1957). A more recent elucidation of information use relies on the idea of stopping rules, identifying five common stopping rules information seekers use: mental list, representational stability, difference threshold, magnitude threshold, and single criterion (Browne et al., 2007).
Prior research indicates a lack of understanding in the areas of information use (Prabha, Connaway, Olszewski, & Jenkins, 2007) and information overload (Eppler & Mengis, 2004) in Information Systems literature. Moreover, research indicates a lack of clarity in what information should be used in different decision contexts (Kowalczyk & Buxmann, 2014). The increase in the availability of information further complicates and necessitates research in this area. This dissertation seeks to fill these gaps in the literature by determining how information use changes across decision contexts and the relationships between stopping rules.
Two unique methodologies were used to test the hypotheses in the conceptual model, which both contribute to research on information stopping rules. One tracks the participant during an online search, the second asks follow-up survey questions on a Likert scale. One of four search tasks (professional or personal context and a big data analytics understanding or restaurant location search) was randomly assigned to each participant.
Results show different stopping rules are more useful for different decision contexts. Specifically, professional tasks are more likely to use stopping rules with an a priori decision on how much information to collect, while personal tasks encourage users to determine how much information to collect during the search process. The analysis also shows that different stopping rules have different emphases on quality and quantity of information. Specifically, representational stability requires both a high quality and quantity of information, while other stopping rules indicate a preference for one of the two. Finally, information quality and quantity ultimately have a positive relationship with decision confidence, satisfaction, and efficiency.
The findings of this research are useful to practitioners and academics tackling issues with the availability of more information. As systems are designed for information search, understanding information stopping rules become increasingly important.
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Elaydi, Raed Saber. "The development and testing of a nonconsequentialist decision-making model". Diss., Texas A&M University, 2005. http://hdl.handle.net/1969.1/2443.
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New conceptual work in the judgment and decision-making research arena has suggested a nonconsequentialist perspective to decision-making. From this perspective, an emphasis is placed on emotions during the decision-making process, specifically positing that concurrent emotions may lead to decisions that are nonconsequentialist in nature. In the current study I develop the Nonconsequentialist Decision-Making Model (NDMM) and include indecisiveness as a vital construct in the model. In tune with much new research on emotions during the decision-making process, I examine how being indecisive is a product of negative concurrent emotions, and how indecisiveness affects the decision-making process. Using a natural decision-making setting, the current study had participants discuss the "biggest" decision they are currently facing in their lives. Data was collected regarding indecisiveness, nonconsequentialist dysfunctional decisional coping behavior, and decision difficulty. The findings show strong support for the NDMM and the nonconsequentialist perspective. Furthermore, the indecisiveness construct was measured successfully and showed to be a critical part of the decision-making process when dealing with difficult decisions.
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Jones, Daphne Jane. "Understanding decision-making relating to out-of-authority placements for pupils with autistic spectrum conditions". Thesis, University of Manchester, 2012. https://www.research.manchester.ac.uk/portal/en/theses/understanding-decisionmaking-relating-to-outofauthority-placements-for-pupils-with-autistic-spectrum-conditions(69de7471-7dd7-4afd-a69c-9b18ece382d0).html.
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This study is concerned with understanding decision-making in relation to out-of-authority educational placements for pupils with an Autistic Spectrum Condition (ASC) in one Local Authority (LA). The aims of this research were twofold. The first was to explore what factors have the greatest impact on the decision to educate pupils with an ASC outside the local authority. The second was to explore the perceptions of key informants about the process for deciding those placements. The study involved examining 24 pupil cases where out-of-authority ASC placements had been agreed and interviews with case-informants contributing to those placement decisions in order to analyse their beliefs and understandings about the processes of decision-making. The literature review highlights the limited research with regard to decision-making about pupils with Special Educational Needs (SEN) and draws examples from medical decision-making frameworks. Data analysis showed that two factors, complexity and range of pupil need and lack of LA provision to match the needs identified had the greatest influence on the decision to educate pupils outside the local authority. The response of the LA’s own schools, professionals and parents to those presenting needs as well as the consequent impact on the child/young person and others were recognised secondary factors. Case-informants offered a strong impression that for the majority of these pupils successful inclusion in their own LA would require increased and more integrated services in order to meet their identified needs. Data from the qualitative interviews provides a sense of the range of informants’ experiences relating to decision-making processes and the factors determining those perceptions. These related to whether the processes had been experienced as planned, were evidenced-based, child-focused and involved effective working with parents and other agencies. The findings, in part, reflect government concerns about the current statutory SEN framework and the case for change as made in the recent Green Paper (DfE, 2011). At a local level informants identified the need for a more explicit model of decision-making, ethically grounded with an emphasis for decision-making to be based on the holistic needs of the child and viewed that this would be better facilitated by having improved joint-working between services and stronger partnership engagement between the LA and parents/carers. Clinical professional-patient shared decision-making is discussed as a potential model which might be usefully applied to better understand and develop current SEN decision making.
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Holt, J. "The application of decision support to complex decision making". Thesis, University of Southampton, 1985. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.374765.
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Ogunsanya, Oluwole Victor. "Decision support using Bayesian networks for clinical decision making". Thesis, Queen Mary, University of London, 2012. http://qmro.qmul.ac.uk/xmlui/handle/123456789/8688.
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This thesis investigates the use of Bayesian Networks (BNs), augmented by the Dynamic Discretization Algorithm, to model a variety of clinical problems. In particular, the thesis demonstrates four novel applications of BN and dynamic discretization to clinical problems. Firstly, it demonstrates the flexibility of the Dynamic Discretization Algorithm in modeling existing medical knowledge using appropriate statistical distributions. Many practical applications of BNs use the relative frequency approach while translating existing medical knowledge to a prior distribution in a BN model. This approach does not capture the full uncertainty surrounding the prior knowledge. Secondly, it demonstrates a novel use of the multinomial BN formulation in learning parameters of categorical variables. The traditional approach requires fixed number of parameters during the learning process but this framework allows an analyst to generate a multinomial BN model based on the number of parameters required. Thirdly, it presents a novel application of the multinomial BN formulation and dynamic discretization to learning causal relations between variables. The idea is to consider competing causal relations between variables as hypotheses and use data to identify the best hypothesis. The result shows that BN models can provide an alternative to the conventional causal learning techniques. The fourth novel application is the use of Hierarchical Bayesian Network (HBN) models, augmented by dynamic discretization technique, to meta-analysis of clinical data. The result shows that BN models can provide an alternative to classical meta analysis techniques. The thesis presents two clinical case studies to demonstrate these novel applications of BN models. The first case study uses data from a multi-disciplinary team at the Royal London hospital to demonstrate the flexibility of the multinomial BN framework in learning parameters of a clinical model. The second case study demonstrates the use of BN and dynamic discretization to solving decision problem. In summary, the combination of the Junction Tree Algorithm and Dynamic Discretization Algorithm provide a unified modeling framework for solving interesting clinical problems.
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Pirrone, Angelo. "Decision modelling insights in cognition and adaptive decision making". Thesis, University of Sheffield, 2016. http://etheses.whiterose.ac.uk/15841/.
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Bales, Adam Thomas. "Decision and dependence : a defence of causal decision theory". Thesis, University of Cambridge, 2017. https://www.repository.cam.ac.uk/handle/1810/268179.
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For several decades, causal decision theory (CDT) has been the orthodox version of philosophical decision theory. However, ever since CDT was first developed there have been those who have disputed the adequacy of this theory. Then, in the last decade and a half, opposition to this theory has intensified, with a vast array of novel objections to CDT emerging. As a result, the field of philosophical decision theory has splintered, with a large number of new versions of decision theory being developed to try to plug the gap left by the apparent collapse of CDT. However, in this thesis I will defend CDT against the objections raised against it and so dispute the need to develop a new version of decision theory. In doing so, I will address old challenges to CDT, based around Newcomb’s Problem and cases where CDT provides unstable guidance. These challenges have been around for some time. While existing solutions have been presented here, these have failed to fully resolve the disquiet that these objections raise. In this thesis, I will have more to say to resolve this disquiet so that we can set these old objections aside. In this thesis, I will also address new challenges to CDT, which have arisen in the past decade and a half. These challenges are based on appeals to quantum mechanics, prophecy, and the laws of nature, among other things. Many of these objections have not previously been addressed. However, I will argue that these challenges fail to appropriately construe CDT and so fail to truly undermine this theory. Causal decision theory, I will conclude, is a robust theory. As such, while there is much work to be done in philosophical decision theory this work involves building on, rather than replacing, CDT.
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Sandy, Shastri Stefan J. 1978. "Chat decision assistant : an online distance collaborative decision tool". Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2002. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/87429.
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Thesis (M.Eng.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, 2002.Includes bibliographical references (leaves 59-60).
by Shastri Stefan J. Sandy.
M.Eng.
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Rezgui, Abdelkerim [Verfasser]. "Decision Evaluation System : Towards Sustainable Decision-Making / Abdelkerim Rezgui". Aachen : Shaker, 2018. http://d-nb.info/1188550578/34.
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Rao, Vikram Mohan. "Investigation of Decision Processes in Chemical Substitution Decision Making". Thesis, The George Washington University, 2021. http://pqdtopen.proquest.com/#viewpdf?dispub=28261055.
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In recent years, new regulatory guidance has spurred organizations to replace hazardous chemicals with safer alternatives. The factors and influences that shape decisions to transition to safer chemicals are of interest to decision scientists. Previous studies have examined the role that various factors, such as regulation, health impacts, and environmental impacts, have played in shaping such decisions. However, two key research gaps have been identified. First, existing semi-quantitative-based studies do not adequately capture the complexity of decision-making. Second, no in-depth qualitative study of a current substitution process, elucidating decision-making mechanisms at various stages of the design process, has yet been performed. The current research addresses these gaps. The first component of the study is an extensive survey of product and chemical manufacturers to elicit potential tradeoffs concerning final product design and redesign decisions. Such tradeoffs are characterized by a set of six factors affecting product design, which are further disaggregated into thirty-three attributes distributed across these factors. Statistical methods including Bayesian Dirichlet modeling and Principal Component Analysis were used to show: 1) two factors were statistically significantly different than other factors, 2) how features such as company size and time of decision affected factor weighting, and 3) that nine principal components explain 79% of the variance in the attribute scores. The second component of the study was a phenomenological assessment of a current substitution process: replacement of cadmium with Zn-Ni for aircraft components, undertaken by the U.S. Navy and Air Force. This study synthesized existing research in cognition, decision-making, and knowledge management. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with participants representing engineering, environmental, safety, and management disciplines. Qualitative analysis was used to identify and characterize the underlying mechanisms guiding the decision process, including external/internal influences, organizational structure and inertia, and innovative team problem solving. The results from this research contribute to theoretical knowledge in decision-making and cognition, as well as practical knowledge for organizations and policymakers. The broader implications of this research study include a realization that decision tradeoffs vary based on decision contexts, indicating that sector-specific future policy and guidance efforts are needed.
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Hoefel, Lauren. "20th Anniversary Update of the Ottawa Decision Support Framework: Evidence Syntheses of Needs Assessments and Trials of Patient Decision Aids". Thesis, Université d'Ottawa / University of Ottawa, 2019. http://hdl.handle.net/10393/39765.
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Purpose:
To synthesize evidence on decisional needs assessments and patient decision aid (PtDA) trials based on the Ottawa Decision Support Framework (ODSF) in order to validate the concepts and test the main assertion in the ODSF.
Decisional Needs:
The systematic review studies (n=45) validated all of the decisional needs identified in the ODSF. Nine new manifestations of ODSF decisional needs emerged (e.g. information overload, unreceptive to information/deliberation, relationship barriers with practitioner).
PtDAs:
The sub-analysis identified 24 ODSF PtDA trials. Compared to usual care, ODSF PtDAs improved decision quality, addressed decisional needs and reduced decision delay. Further evaluation is needed on downstream impacts of these improvements on decision-making.
Conclusions:
Using Walker and Avant’s theory testing steps, the integrated findings from the systematic review and sub-analysis validated the ODSF decisional needs concepts and tested the main assertion in the ODSF (that PtDAs address decisional needs and improve decision quality).
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Petersen, Mitchell A. "Three essays on financial decision making--the firm's pension decision & the NYSE specialist's pricing decision". Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1990. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/13554.
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Thesis (Ph. D.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Economics, 1990.Title as it appears in the June, 1990 M.I.T. Graduate List: Financial and tax aspects of firm's choice of employee benefits.
Includes bibliographical references.
by Mitchell A. Petersen.
Ph.D.
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Fehross, Anson Lee Seabolt. "Valuing for Others: Centring Values in Proxy Decision Making". Thesis, The University of Sydney, 2021. https://hdl.handle.net/2123/27975.
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Advance directives have proven inadequate as an advance care planning tool, largely because they fail to adequately anticipate and address relevant clinical scenarios. The primary response has been to turn to proxy decision-makers. Under the standard view, proxies are tasked with making the same decisions the patient would have chosen under the circumstances based upon their intimate familiarity with the patient and their wishes. However, it is now well established that proxies fail to accurately replicate decisions, only performing slightly above random chance. Given this, some have suggested that we should give up on advance care planning altogether in favour of alternatives, such as attending to the patient’s best interests.
My goal in this thesis is to provide an alternative model of proxy decision making, which I dub the ‘value proxy account’. It proceeds in two parts.
In the first part, I argue that the standard view of proxy appointments is mistaken in claiming that knowledge of the patient’s wishes suffices to provide insight into what they would value. Instead, in line with the work of R. M. Veatch, I argue that the only way to have this kind of insight is via the appointment of proxies who share patient values, and value in the same manner as the patient. This allows value proxies to decide based upon their own values, in the knowledge that their decision will respect or further the values of the patient.
However, a key problem remains: the individual value proxy remains an individual, with all the problems that this entails. As I show, individual proxies, qua individual reasoners, are beset by myriad biases which invariably influence their decisions beneath the level of conscious awareness. As a corrective, a body of empirical literature suggests that group deliberation, under felicitous conditions, produces better decisions than individual reasoning. This licenses the conclusion that our reasoning capacities are much improved when they are embedded in a dialogical context. I therefore argue that patients, in most cases, would be better served by appointing multiple value proxies who deliberate together to determine what is best, all things considered. My account will demonstrate that, despite the possibility of deadlock, the group value proxy account offers the best model of substitute decision making available.
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Agarwal, Deepti Medhi Deepankar. "Roaming decisions presentation models for smart devices in a decision support system /". Diss., UMK access, 2005.
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Thesis (M.S.)--School of Computing and Engineering. University of Missouri--Kansas City, 2005."A thesis in computer science." Typescript. Advisor: Deep Medhi. Vita. Title from "catalog record" of the print edition Description based on contents viewed May 30, 2006. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 91-93). Online version of the print edition.
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Broadhurst, Karen. "Help-seeking decisions and child welfare : an exploration of situated decision making". Thesis, University of Central Lancashire, 2005. http://clok.uclan.ac.uk/9734/.
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Family support services aim to support parents and carers with the task of bringing up children; these services consistently report problems, however, in attracting helpseekers. Despite recent developments within child-welfare towards the provision of family-friendly services, self-referral rates remain low constituting at best 30% of all referrals. Agencies also report that families are reluctant to take up services following third party (frequently professional) referral. Despite these consistent findings the extant literature on help-seeking offers few insights into how social actors, in the face of family problems, make choices between the available sources of help. Within the extant literature studies consistently report that families prefer 'informal' support but few insights are offered about how such decisions are made and how preference is organised in relation to diverse sources of support. In this thesis and focusing on talk about `help-seeking' in focus group and interview settings, analysis centres on exploring the accountable properties of situated decision-making. From analysis of situated talk, the study offers insights and raises questions for further research that may assist family support agencies to more appropriately tailor their services to meet the needs of service users. The present study is much inspired by the work of Harvey Sacks in particular his development of Membership Categorisation Analysis. In making use of Hester and Eglin's occasioned model of MCA (1997) it has been possible to explore practical reasoning in and through the local, sequential and categorical organisation of talk. Analysis of situated decision-making, in relation to the topic 'help-seeking', finds decision-making a highly organised practical activity such that any social actor canmake an 'educated' guess about who, another, would suggest as a first category for help. Research participants, in deciding who should hypothetically be approached first for help, constituted a socially sanctioned order to help-seeking characterised by first-position category pairs and last-position category pairs. Use of, or reference to, prior knowledge of help-seeking encounters was also identified as a key decision making resource. This thesis concludes with a policy discussion and raises a number of speculative comments arising from the study that are relevant for the development of child welfare services. A number of avenues are suggested for further research, in particular questions are asked about the continued practice and emphasis within child-welfare services on professional social diagnosis, with the attendant neglect of help-seeking as a socially organised activity. The study suggests that future research might centre on further analysis of how 'family support' is organised within the family and prior to professional intervention. It is also suggested that further research examine the possibilities of response to requests for help as a better starting point for service delivery, rather than professional detection of 'problems'.
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Lundgren, Rebecka. "A Repeatable Multi-Criteria Decision Model for Social Housing Asset Intervention Decisions". Thesis, Högskolan i Gävle, Avdelningen för datavetenskap och samhällsbyggnad, 2019. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:hig:diva-29769.
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This report describes a case study where a multi criteria decision model is used to make decisions regarding asset interventions for four social housing complexes, similar in terms of issues and possible interventions, at Christchurch City Council. The value judgements from the decision makers and their advisors that were necessary for creating the decision model were elicited through three workshops; selecting aspects, weighting and rating and lastly reviewing the output. An analysis performed shows that the decision model is logically consistent and does not suffer from the rank reversal phenomenon. The validation of the model also included creating four individual decision models, one for each social housing complex, comparing the results of applying the joint model and the individual models, and revisiting and reconsidering the value judgments made in the different models when discrepancies were found. This included utility difference analysis and asking trade-off questions to the decision makers. Part of the validation was also to get acceptance of the output of the joint model from the social housing team. Applying the decision model on the four social housing complexes and receiving an output which is accepted by the social housing team suggests that the aggregated model can be used for future decision problems of the same kind, provided that they are within the set level ranges of the aspects. Since the decision model is transparent in terms of which values or priorities have been applied and which prerequisites must be met in order to apply the model to future decisions, it is possible to use the decision model as a ‘live model’ with adjustment being made to it when required.
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Strasser, Mark. "The development of a fuzzy decision-support system for dairy cattle culling decisions". Thesis, National Library of Canada = Bibliothèque nationale du Canada, 1997. http://www.collectionscanada.ca/obj/s4/f2/dsk2/ftp01/MQ29794.pdf.
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Shamoun, Sanny. "Post-decision Processes : Consolidation and value conflicts in decision making". Doctoral thesis, Stockholm University, Department of Psychology, 2004. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:su:diva-169.
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The studies in the present thesis focus on post-decision processes using the theoretical framework of Differentiation and Consolidation Theory. This thesis consists of three studies. In all these studies, pre-decision evaluations are compared with post-decision evaluations in order to explore differences in evaluations of decision alternatives before and after a decision. The main aim of the studies was to describe and gain a clearer and better understanding of how people re-evaluate information, following a decision for which they have experienced the decision and outcome. The studies examine how the attractiveness evaluations of important attributes are restructured from the pre-decision to the post-decision phase; particularly restructuring processes of value conflicts. Value conflict attributes are those in which information speaks against the chosen alternative in a decision. The first study investigates an important real-life decision and illustrates different post-decision (consolidation) processes following the decision. The second study tests whether decisions with value conflicts follow the same consolidation (post-decision restructuring) processes when the conflict is controlled experimentally, as in earlier studies of less controlled real-life decisions. The third study investigates consolidation and value conflicts in decisions in which the consequences are controlled and of different magnitudes.
The studies in the present thesis have shown how attractiveness restructuring of attributes in conflict occurs in the post-decision phase. Results from the three studies indicated that attractiveness restructuring of attributes in conflict was stronger for important real-life decisions (Study 1) and in situations in which real consequences followed a decision (Study 3) than in more controlled, hypothetical decision situations (Study 2).
Finally, some proposals for future research are suggested, including studies of the effects of outcomes and consequences on consolidation of prior decisions and how a decision maker’s involvement affects his or her pre- and post-decision processes.
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Jamieson, Bruce (Kieren) James, i k. jamieson@cqu edu au. "Information Systems Decision Making: Factors Affecting Decision Makers and Outcomes". Central Queensland University. School of Management and Information Systems, 2007. http://library-resources.cqu.edu.au./thesis/adt-QCQU/public/adt-QCQU20070626.103825.
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Organisations are increasingly reliant on effective information systems (IS) yet little is known about the information and influences that contribute to their selection. Decision makers play an important role in the evaluation, acquisition and implementation of information systems in organisations. Their role during the re-implementation phase of information systems projects is critical, yet little is known about how and why these decisions are made. This thesis explores the influences on these decisions and reports their effects. The aim of this research is to increase the understanding of what occurs during decision making in the critical pre-implementation phase. A cross-disciplinary approach has been employed to develop a research framework informed by literature from information systems, innovation and adoption theory, management decision making and organisational decision making. A qualitative research method was used to develop four exploratory case studies. Research was conducted in private and government organisations that had implemented large information systems. An interpretive hermeneutic text-based analysis technique was used in a cross-case analysis in order to build theory and address the research questions. Fifty-six informational and contextual factors were identified in this research as having effects on information systems pre-implementation decision making. These factors fall into eight broad thematic factor groups: confidence, decision process, opinions, option attributes, organisation, perceptions, politics and vendor attributes. This thesis concludes that there are linkages between decision factors and decision outcomes. It is argued that to achieve positive decision outcomes from information systems preimplementation
decisions, conditions for intra- and inter-organisational alignment must exist. It is also argued that information systems re-implementation decision outcomes alter intra- and inter-organisational alignment conditions and affect future decisions.
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Moynihan, Peter. "Understanding higher command decision making and senior executive decision processes". Thesis, Royal Holloway, University of London, 1987. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.339359.
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The initial aims of the project were to identify characteristics of the command process at Higher Command levels in the Royal Navy so that systems design could include decision aids at this important focal point"in the overall system (a naval Task Force). A prerequisite for formulating recommendations is an understanding "of the Task Force Commander's role and decision process. Consequently, an attempt was made early on to structure the Task Force command task. It became apparent that, without special measures, such a description could not be acquired. This thesis, therefore, is the story of a project about collecting data and informa tion, using it and then interpret ting it for the aboye purposes. Since there was little known about how to achieve an understanding of senior decision making, especially in potentially unstructured areas like the naval Higher Command function in a conflict environment, appropriate measures were developed to do so. The overall methodology designed consisted of: a) basic research; b) interview techniques; c) scientific gaming procedure; and d) a data collection-in-action regime. The methodology sought to use 'laboratory' techniques initially to acquire enough insight to then mount a study of clients "in action". It was considered necessary to supplement the former types of methods (interviews and gaming activities) with versions actually involving the clients when performing their role (in the form of a structured self-report study). The overall methodology was rooted in the systems ideas of Checkland (1981) and Bowen's views on the OR process (1981 and 1984) . Both authors react against the traditional prescriptive, normative approach of text book OR practitioners. The latter pursui t ignores messy, human aspects of organisational life and requires that a problem situation is well understood so that applied mathematical techniques can be used to formulate and then , solve' a problem. Most high-level decision problems, though, cannot be so formulated. This thesis is an attempt to formulate and understand high-level decision problems in a different way, using different techniques, but with a similar aim of arriving at useful and meaningful decision support recommendations. The methods to be described should start to fill the gap that exists at the moment in the OR repertoire of methodology catering for such needs. It was not possible to implement the overall methodology in the naval context. The industrial phase of the research was therefore initiated so that all of the phases could be tested in an albeit limited programme. Some preliminary insights and findings emerged in both contexts. Essentially, high-level decision makers approach their tasks differently. They have differing priorities also - as revealed by the interview and gaming phases. However, the data collection-in-action study (implemented in an industrial context only) revealed that what happens in reality (when they are at work) does not fully reflect the pattern of priorities revealed in the laboratory studies. Consequently, it is necessary to use other means to arrive at a complete picture of their decision making process. The overall methodology includes the interview and gaming phases because they are necessary to acquire enough insights to mount a data collection-in-action study later on. Also, they have other research and training uses. The ~hesis also includes the use of an analysis technique (based on Hogberg 1985) which assists with the appreciation of high-level decision making problems. The technique forms the basis of a proposed decision support system for both military and industrial contexts.
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Arif, Farrukh. "A Decision Support Framework for Infrastructure Maintenance Investment Decision-Making". FIU Digital Commons, 2013. http://digitalcommons.fiu.edu/etd/1002.
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Infrastructure management agencies are facing multiple challenges, including aging infrastructure, reduction in capacity of existing infrastructure, and availability of limited funds. Therefore, decision makers are required to think innovatively and develop inventive ways of using available funds. Maintenance investment decisions are generally made based on physical condition only. It is important to understand that spending money on public infrastructure is synonymous with spending money on people themselves. This also requires consideration of decision parameters, in addition to physical condition, such as strategic importance, socioeconomic contribution and infrastructure utilization. Consideration of multiple decision parameters for infrastructure maintenance investments can be beneficial in case of limited funding. Given this motivation, this dissertation presents a prototype decision support framework to evaluate trade-off, among competing infrastructures, that are candidates for infrastructure maintenance, repair and rehabilitation investments.
Decision parameters’ performances measured through various factors are combined to determine the integrated state of an infrastructure using Multi-Attribute Utility Theory (MAUT). The integrated state, cost and benefit estimates of probable maintenance actions are utilized alongside expert opinion to develop transition probability and reward matrices for each probable maintenance action for a particular candidate infrastructure. These matrices are then used as an input to the Markov Decision Process (MDP) for the finite-stage dynamic programming model to perform project (candidate)-level analysis to determine optimized maintenance strategies based on reward maximization. The outcomes of project (candidate)-level analysis are then utilized to perform network-level analysis taking the portfolio management approach to determine a suitable portfolio under budgetary constraints. The major decision support outcomes of the prototype framework include performance trend curves, decision logic maps, and a network-level maintenance investment plan for the upcoming years. The framework has been implemented with a set of bridges considered as a network with the assistance of the Pima County DOT, AZ. It is expected that the concept of this prototype framework can help infrastructure management agencies better manage their available funds for maintenance.
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Van, Dyk Theron Van Zyl. "Decision support systems for solving discrete multicriteria decision making problems". Master's thesis, University of Cape Town, 1992. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/14300.
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Includes bibliography.The aim of this study was the design and implementation of an interactive decision support system, assisting a single decision maker in reaching a satisfactory decision when faced by a multicriteria decision making problem. There are clearly two components involved in designing such a system, namely the concept of decision support systems (DSS) and the area of multicriteria decision making (MCDM). The multicriteria decision making environment as well as the definitions of the multicriteria decision making concepts used, are discussed in chapter 1. Chapter 2 gives a brief historical review on MCDM, highlighting the origins of some of the more well-known methods for solving MCDM problems. A detailed discussion of interactive decision making is also given. Chapter 3 is concerned with the DSS concept, including a historical review thereof, a framework for the design of a DSS, various development approaches as well as the components constituting a decision support system. In chapter 4, the possibility of integrating the two concepts, MCDM and DSS, are discussed. A detailed discussion of various methodologies for solving MCDM problems is given in chapter 5. Specific attention is given to identifying the methodologies to be implemented in the DSS. Chapter 6 can be seen as a theoretical description of the system developed, while Chapter 7 is concerned with the evaluation procedures used for testing the system. A final summary and concluding remarks are given in Chapter 8.
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Lee, JinKook. "Utility functions and decision rules: Implications for consumer decision-making /". The Ohio State University, 1993. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1487848078451032.
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Lagerqvist, Anton. "Decision Support in Shared Decision-Making for Patient-Centered Care". Thesis, Högskolan i Gävle, Avdelningen för datavetenskap och samhällsbyggnad, 2019. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:hig:diva-29864.
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Healthcare decisions should be evidence-based and patient-centered. Patient-centered care is about providing quality care with the patient as the focus. The provider has to incorporate the patient’s values, preferences, and objectives into the clinical decision. Traditionally, clinical decisions were made by the provider alone. Healthcare decisions are complex, due to the multiple objectives and potential serious outcomes, making it difficult for the provider to facilitate shared decision-making with the patient. Decision support software can assist with decision-making, by letting the patient incorporate their preferences and perform the decision analysis. Annalisa is a decision support software that has been developed for this purpose. The objective of this thesis is to analyze Annalisa, from a multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) perspective and to discuss the tool’s ability to assist with healthcare decisions in a patient-centered care setting. Annalisa’s elements and method were reviewed, using information from the developers. The input data and results from two healthcare studies using Annalisa were used to analyze the tool from a MCDA and patient-centered care perspective and discuss the tool’s ability to provide aid in healthcare decisions. The tool’s method of simple additive weighting (SAW) was compared to the expected utility function using a decision tree. The developers of Annalisa focused on the simplicity and ease of use, rather than creating a new kind of decision support tool. The two example studies indicated problems with the tool’s ability to incorporate the patient’s preferences and values. However, considering that one of the goals with using a decision aid software in healthcare is to assist with decision analysis after the patient has been presented with the information in the traditional healthcare decision guide, Annalisa makes an interesting attempt to provide aid in that next step of the decision-making process.
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Sokolova, Marina L. "Decision list machines". Thesis, University of Ottawa (Canada), 2001. http://hdl.handle.net/10393/6380.
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We learn decision lists over a space of features that are constructed from the data. A practical machine which we call the Decision List Machine comes as a result. We construct the Decision List Machine which uses generalized balls as data-dependent features. We compare practical performance on some data sets with the performance of some other learning algorithms such as the Set Covering Machine and the Support Vector Machine. This performance is evaluated for both symmetric and asymmetric loss coefficients. We also provide a theoretical assessment of the performance of the DAM by computing upper bounds of the generalization error.