Gotowa bibliografia na temat „Dance action”

There are complex posture changes in dance movements, which lead to the low accuracy of dance movement recognition. And none of the current motion recognition uses the dancer’s attributes. The attribute feature of dancer is the important high-level semantic information in the action recognition. Therefore, a dance movement recognition algorithm based on feature expression and attribute mining is designed to learn the complicated and changeable dancer movements. Firstly, the original image information is compressed by the time-domain fusion module, and the information of action and attitude can be expressed completely. Then, a two-way feature extraction network is designed, which extracts the details of the actions along the way and takes the sequence image as the input of the network. Then, in order to enhance the expression ability of attribute features, a multibranch spatial channel attention integration module (MBSC) based on an attention mechanism is designed to extract the features of each attribute. Finally, using the semantic inference and information transfer function of the graph convolution network, the relationship between attribute features and dancer features can be mined and deduced, and more expressive action features can be obtained; thus, high-performance dance motion recognition is realized. The test and analysis results on the data set show that the algorithm can recognize the dance movement and improve the accuracy of the dance movement recognition effectively, thus realizing the movement correction function of the dancer.

Because of its high research value, action recognition has become a very popular research direction in recent years. However, the research on the combination of motion recognition technology and dance movements is still in its infancy. At the same time, due to the high complexity of dance movements and the problems of human body self-occlusion when performing dances, research on dance video action recognition has been caused. Progress is relatively slow. This article mainly introduces the research of sports dance action recognition system oriented to human motion monitoring and sensing, fully considers the abovementioned problems, and makes in-depth research and analysis on the current excellent action recognition research content in this field. This paper proposes a research method of sports dance movement recognition for human movement monitoring and sensing, including sports dance movement classification algorithm and sports dance movement preprocessing algorithm, which is used to conduct research experiments on sports dance movement recognition for human movement monitoring and sensing. The experimental results of this article show that the average recognition accuracy of the sports dance action recognition system for human motion monitoring and sensing is 92%, which can be used in daily sports dance training and competition.

The study of dance has been helpful to advance our understanding of how human brain networks of action observation are influenced by experience. However previous studies have not examined the effect of extensive visual experience alone: for example, an art critic or dance fan who has a rich experience of watching dance but negligible experience performing dance. To explore the effect of pure visual experience we performed a single experiment using functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging (fMRI) to compare the neural processing of dance actions in 3 groups: a) 14 ballet dancers, b) 10 experienced viewers, c) 12 novices without any extensive dance or viewing experience. Each of the 36 participants viewed short 2-second displays of ballet derived from motion capture of a professional ballerina. These displays represented the ballerina as only points of light at the major joints. We wished to study the action observation network broadly and thus included two different types of display and two different tasks for participants to perform. The two different displays were: a) brief movies of a ballet action and b) frames from the ballet movies with the points of lights connected by lines to show a ballet posture. The two different tasks were: a) passively observe the display and b) imagine performing the action depicted in the display. The two levels of display and task were combined factorially to produce four experimental conditions (observe movie, observe posture, motor imagery of movie, motor imagery of posture). The set of stimuli used in the experiment are available for download after this paper. A random effects ANOVA was performed on brain activity and an effect of experience was obtained in seven different brain areas including: right Temporoparietal Junction (TPJ), left Retrosplenial Cortex (RSC), right Primary Somatosensory Cortex (S1), bilateral Primary Motor Cortex (M1), right Orbitofrontal Cortex (OFC), right Temporal Pole (TP). The patterns of activation were plotted in each of these areas (TPJ, RSC, S1, M1, OFC, TP) to investigate more closely how the effect of experience changed across these areas. For this analysis, novices were treated as baseline and the relative effect of experience examined in the dancer and experienced viewer groups. Interpretation of these results suggests that both visual and motor experience appear equivalent in producing more extensive early processing of dance actions in early stages of representation (TPJ and RSC) and we hypothesise that this could be due to the involvement of autobiographical memory processes. The pattern of results found for dancers in S1 and M1 suggest that their perception of dance actions are enhanced by embodied processes. For example, the S1 results are consistent with claims that this brain area shows mirror properties. The pattern of results found for the experienced viewers in OFC and TP suggests that their perception of dance actions are enhanced by cognitive processes. For example, involving aspects of social cognition and hedonic processing – the experienced viewers find the motor imagery task more pleasant and have richer connections of dance to social memory. While aspects of our interpretation are speculative the core results clearly show common and distinct aspects of how viewing experience and physical experience shape brain responses to watching dance.

Sports action recognition helps athletes correct their action range and standardize their poses. But it is not an easy task to recognize sports actions, due to the individual difference in action execution. Besides, the difficulty of action recognition increases with the diversity of actions and the complexity of background. The previous studies have not fully considered temporal changes, and failed to determine the exact staring point of actions. To solve the problem, this paper proposes a new method to recognize dance actions and estimate poses based on deep convolutional neural network (DCNN). Firstly, the authors presented full-effect expression of global and local features of dance actions, and derived an optimal model based on DeepPose. Next, a dance pose evaluation model was established based on time sequence segmentation network, and the sparse time sampling strategy was introduced to realize efficient and effective learning of the frame sequence of the whole video. Experimental results confirm the superiority of the full-effect expression of global and local features, and the effectiveness of the proposed model. The research results provide a reference for the application of deep learning (DL) in other scenarios of action recognition and pose estimation.

Music adaptive method, one of the important directions of dance robot research, will improve the robot's intelligence and adaptive ability, thereby greatly enriching people's growing spiritual and cultural life. From the current point of view, an overly complex adaptive method used, a large amount of computer resources will be encroached on, and the dance robot system will freeze or even crash. The dance robot is a kind of embedded device. Under the premise of saving system resources, how to make the robot do different actions according to different music and how to make it produce movements in step with the music will become a hot topic in the research of robot adaptive methods. This paper proposes a dance robot adaptive method based on music analysis. After the music signal is preprocessed, a reasonable threshold range is set to obtain music features. Through the feature and coordinate transformation, the action duration is obtained, alternative actions are selected, and action frequency is set to achieve the coordination of amplitude change and action switching. Experiments have shown that with this method used on a dance robot, the system runs smoothly featuring coordinated movement, hence a better adaptive effect.

The subject of the inseparability of music and dance in African artistic experiences has preoccupied scholars and researchers in the field of ethnomusicology, ethnochoreology, and musicology. Commonly, music is conceptualized as an accompaniment to dance. Moreover, the existing literary perspectives frame the inseparability of music and dance in African communities in aesthetical, structural, functional, and semiotic terms. This article provides an intellectual excursion that locates music as pedagogy of dances in African practices. It offers a critical examination of how teachers of cultural heritage dances in nonacademic environments in central Uganda engage music as a pedagogic aid. I draw on the idea of choreomusicology and social learning theories to locate the place of music in dance not just as an accompaniment, but also as a teaching and learning aid. A total of eight dance teachers were engaged through storytelling, interviews, and inquisitorial observation for a period of nine months to elicit their reflections on and interpretations of application of music as a pedagogic stimulus in teaching cultural heritage dances. The findings revealed that elements of music such as songs, mnemonics, instrumental sounds, body percussion, and drum rhythms are key drivers in guiding and framing the teaching and learning processes of the dances. Through music, the dance teachers provoke learners to individually and communally embody, experience, question, abstract, experiment with, concretize, and conceptualize kinesthetic and historicized movement knowledge and skills of the dances. Music scaffolds and staircases learners into kinesthetic journeys of embodied knowing, experiential agency, constructive thinking, creative and reflective imagination, socialized connectivity, and corporeal action. The article provides insights into how music and dance practitioners in Western and non-Western traditions can leverage music to facilitate holistic pedagogic and creative processes of dance.

This essay considers metonymy in dance from the perspective of cognitive science. My goal is to unpack the roles of metaphor and metonymy in dance thought and action: how do they arise, how are they understood, how are they to be explained, and in what ways do they determine a person's doing of dance? The premise of this essay is that language matters at the cultural level and can be determinative at the individual level. I contend that some figures of speech, especially metonymic labels like ‘bunhead’, can not only discourage but dehumanize young dancers, treating them not as subjects who dance but as objects to be danced. The use of metonymy to sort young dancers may undermine the development of healthy self-image, impede strong identity formation, and retard creative-artistic development. The paper concludes with a discussion of the influence of metonymy in dance and implications for dance educators.

Robot dance is an important topic in robotics. Conventional robot dance systems mainly rely on beats or rhythms of music; however, these conventional systems suffer from limited dance styles and less action novelty. In this paper, we instead develop a humanoid robot dance system driven by musical structures and emotions. In the proposed system, a musical phrase and a dance phrase are considered as the basic structural units of music and dance, respectively. A musical phrasing algorithm based on music theories is created to divide a piece of music into a sequence of phrases. When the emotion of each phrase has been recognized, an emotion sequence can be established. Meanwhile, a hidden Markov model (HMM) matches a dance phrase sequence to the emotion sequence. In particular, several concepts of the “chance method” created by choreographer Merce Cunningham are adopted to guide our robot dance system; thus, a dance phrase is choreographed by randomly selecting and combining a number of actions from a predesigned action library. Based on the approach, one music can generate diverse robotic dance motions, showing the novelty and diversity of robot dance. The experiments on our humanoid robot “Alpha1 Pro” show that our robot can do a good job dancing to music according to musical structures and emotions and can be well accepted by various people.

This research will examine the various techniques of writing stage directions for choreography or dance action within a feature film script. I will discuss and analyse two methodologies for annotating choreography, both developed by experts in dance notation. I will also examine and interpret the observations made by film director, dancer and choreographer Bob Fosse about the purpose and objectives of dance action in feature film scripts. I will examine two case studies of contemporary feature film scripts that contain dance action. The selected scripts are Strictly Ballroom (Australia, 1992) and Flashdance (USA, 1983). These scripts do not use a published system of dance notation to write dance action. I will analyse and investigate the stage directions for choreography and dance action used within both scripts. The exploration of these various approaches to film choreography may form the basis for writing stage directions for choreography or dance action in my own feature length screenplay titled Learning to Dance. As a screenwriter with particular interest in dance I intend to employ dance sequences at different stages throughout my script as a story telling mechanism. It is important to me to be able to clearly communicate and translate choreographic direction into my script in a manner that ensures its eventual interpretation fulfils its original purpose in the story. Therefore I am seeking a methodology for translating and expressing dance sequences in an accurate and concise written form. One key outcome of my research may be the development of a structural and technical framework for providing choreographic direction appropriate to the conventions of screenplay writing. I therefore intend to contribute to the screenwriting field by attempting to develop a framework for providing stage directions for choreography within a film script and then applying this framework within my own screenplay, Learning to Dance. In addition to the study of choreographic notation I will explore the observations made by film theorists such as Adrian Martin, Jerome Delamater, Rick Altman, J.P Telotte and Steve Neal about genres that contain dance action as a defining characteristic. It is my intention to write a screenplay that in part, borrows from the customs and codes of an established genre or subgenre. Therefore my objective is to understand, appreciate and reflect upon the genre the best fits my vision of Learning to Dance. Learning to Dance is the story of Giselle Williams (18) who aspires to be a professional dancer. When Giselle's father is arrested for fraud Giselle is forced to abandon her wealthy surrounds to live and work in one of Melbourne's tough, inner city, high-rise public housing estates. Here Giselle meets her key support roles, Muslim siblings Yasmina (21) a talented belly dancer and her handsome brother and Giselle's future love interest Ali (20) who welcome Giselle into their humble, tight knit and family oriented community.

Dance is a universal and ancient human behavior; however, our understanding of the basis of this behavior is surprisingly weak. In this dissertation, I explore the cognitive and evolutionary foundations of human dance, providing evidence of two ways in which the production and perception of dance actions are rooted in the functions of more general cognitive systems.In doing so, I aim to both inform our understanding of dance, and use the study of dance to elucidate broader issues in cognition. Chapter 1 demonstrates that the ability to entrain, or move in time with an auditory beat, is not unique to humans. In addition, across hundreds of species, I find that all animals able to entrain can also vocally imitate sound. This supports the hypothesis that entrainment relies on cognitive machinery that originally evolved to support vocal imitation. Chapter 2 investigates the perception of dance-like actions. Previous work shows that we infer the goals of observed actions by calculating their efficiency as a means to external effects, like reaching an object or location. However, dance actions typically lack an external effect or external goal. In two experiments, I show that for dance-like actions, adults infer that the agents’ goal is simply to produce the movements themselves. Furthermore, this inference is driven by the actions’ inefficiency as a means to external goals. This inefficiency effectively rules out external goals, making movement-based goals the best explanation. Thus, perception of both dance and non-dance actions appears to rely the same type of efficiency-based goal inference. Chapter 3 builds on these findings, showing that the inference that the movements are the goal is closely related to our concept of dance. First, I find that participants view movement-based goals as more consistent with dance than with other activities. Second, I find that simply construing actions as having movement-based goals leads participants to view the actions as more dancelike, even when all participants have seen the exact same actions. Thus, even our categorization of actions as dance versus non-dance is rooted in the same cognitive processes as support our understanding of other intentional actions.
Psychology

In 2002, the Queensland Schools Curriculum Council launched the Years 1-10 Arts Syllabus as one of the eight Key Learning Areas. This syllabus requires primary teachers to provide arts learning programs in the areas of Dance, Drama, Media, Music and Visual Arts. This syllabus was a landmark for arts education in Queensland as it became a mandate for primary teachers to teach each strand of the arts. This move is one of many recent changes in arts education evident across the globe reflecting a common move towards a broad arts education in schools. In alignment with the mandatory requirement of the Years 1-10 Arts Syllabus, primary teachers are now required to teach Dance, a subject which most have had little to no training or professional development in. This thesis will explore the research question, 'Which strategies used in professional development build competence and confidence in primary teachers to integrate dance in the primary classroom?' Through a series of school-based professional development workshops conducted at two Gold Coast primary schools, the research project utilized an action research approach (Kemmis, 1988) to investigate the effectiveness of this professional development approach. After collating and analyzing the data gathered from these two research sites, a number of key themes emerged around the initial resistance factors to dance professional development and the integration of dance learning in the classroom as well as the impact and influence of this professional development on teachers' competence and confidence. The research identified a range of professional development strategies including learning experiences, structures, resources and conditions that have impacted on the effectiveness of this professional development. Some of these strategies are dance specific while others are more generic and have broader implications for the development and facilitation of professional development of Queensland primary teachers.

Focused awareness in action was designed by the author as a system of movement experiences intended to enhance individual health and self-developmental processes. Drawing on principles of yoga, pranayama, modern dance, movement improvisation, and meditation, with group discussion as a means of integrating the above principles, form components were organized into a methodology for a course of study. The course of study was implemented in a project class and other workshop settings. As a result of these experiences, the thesis describes the structure and implementation of focused awareness in action. Speculations are made regarding its potential contribution to health and self-development. Most significant among the conclusions reached is the role of group interaction and interconnectedness in realizing the potential of the model.

Orientador: Marcia Maria Strazzacappa Hernandez
Tese (doutorado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Faculdade de Educação
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Resumo: Esta pesquisa parte da hipótese de que o crescimento de programas e projetos socioeducativos que utilizam a arte como ferramenta educacional instaura ambivalências no campo da dança, de seu ensino e nas condições de trabalho em que os artistas e educadores desta área se inserem. Questões que acarretam deslocamentos de sentidos com relação às concepções sobre a interface arte e educação. A isto soma-se o reconhecimento ou não destes profissionais como trabalhadores nessa esfera em que prevalece a não continuidade dos processos artísticos e educativos pautados por contratos temporários e parciais. Para entender melhor estas questões, o estudo se localiza na cidade de São Paulo e a partir do fim da década de 1980, período de significativas mudanças econômicas, sociais, educacionais e culturais do qual, no processo de redemocratização emerge uma crise discursiva que pode ser percebida na atualidade, entre os artistas e educadores de dança, a partir de conflitos e tensão identitários e conceituais sobre sua própria profissão. Configurou-se como pesquisa de caráter qualitativo em que se ressaltou a dialética e o processo autobiográfico, ao rememorar minhas próprias experiências, em simultaneidade com narrativas memorialísticas, advindas de entrevistas semi-estruturadas, de profissionais da dança que atuaram em ações socioeducativos e governamentais de São Paulo. Esta esfera revelou-se, prioritariamente, como lugar de passagem, entre tantos outros, que configuram as estratégias de obtenção de renda perpetuando um equilíbrio precário, próprio da profissão. As condições de trabalho neste contexto também desvelaram uma precariedade contraditória em que predominam sentimentos de desvalorização e desrespeito, muitas vezes, silenciados ou invisibilizados, pela valorização que cada profissional atribui aos pequenos, mas significativos, momentos artísticos na relação artista-educando. Neste sentido, a sonhada estabilidade não se refere necessariamente à financeira e sim ao reconhecimento como trabalhador da arte
Abstract: This research begins from the hypothesis that the growth of socio-educational programs and projects that use art as an educational tool creates ambivalences in the field of dance and the teaching of dance, and in the work conditions in which artists and educators of this area are inserted. Issues that imply a change of meanings in relation to the concepts on the art and education interface. To this, the recognition (or lack of recognition) of these workers is added, in this sphere in which the non-continuity of the artistic and educational processes prevail, due to partial and temporary contracts. For a better understanding of these issues, this study is located in the city of São Paulo, in a period beginning in the end of the 80¿s, a significant period of economic, social, educational and cultural changes, during which, in a process of re-democratization has emerged a discursive crisis that can be seen nowadays, among artists and dance educators, stemming from identity and conceptual conflicts and tensions in relation to the profession. This work has been configured as a qualitative research in which the dialectics and the autobiographical process are highlighted, in remembering my own experiences, simultaneously alternating with memory narratives, from semi-structured interviews, with dance professionals that have acted in socio-educational and governmental actions in the State of São Paulo. This sphere has primarily been revealed as a passage way, among many others, that constitute strategies to obtain income, thus perpetuating a precarious balance, a characteristic of the profession. The work conditions in this context also reveal a contradictory poorness in which feelings of underestimation and disrespect prevail, many times silenced or made invisible, by the value each professional attributes to the small, but significant artistic moments in the relation artist-student. In this sense, the so dreamed stability does not refer to the financial reality but to the recognition as an art worker
Doutorado
Educação, Conhecimento, Linguagem e Arte
Doutora em Educação

Background It is estimated that around a fifth of all complaints dealt with within the NHS involves some element of failure of communication between doctors and patients. The underlying hypothesis was that organisational issues were as relevant to episodes of poor communication as the failure of individual doctors. " Methodology Using action learning to explore the complex issue of communication is a novel approach but one that allows the researcher to hold in tension the complexity of the underlying process as well as trying to find themes and insights which might inform practice. The use of qualitative research within medicine is still in its infancy and is not without its limitations, however in the field of communication its use has brought about new understanding and insights through the application of speech act theory, systems thinking and information processing. In doing so it maintains integrity and relevance to clinical practice which, by definition, is often complex and ill defined. Results The research included the evaluation of five study days set up and run for senior doctors within one trust. This showed that giving senior doctors time to share their clinical experience and reflect on their clinical practice improved their confidence. A survey of patients' perceptions of communication within an out-patient setting across the same acute trust demonstrated that most patients felt that communication with doctors was good. A survey of the senior doctors confirmed that most enjoy working in the out-patient setting but that time constraints limit their overall satisfaction with the quality of their interactions. Following the action / reflection cycle a new model of understanding communication based on the metaphor of the dance was developed. Conclusion The model proposes that communication episodes should be seen from an organisational standpoint. Communication should not be seen as a sequential set of steps but rather as a random dance between two parties who have to find a common understanding of the issue being addressed. In finding that common ground external pressures that are both personal (time, energy levels) and organisational (NICE, NHS, GMC) must be acknowledged. Suggestions for further work to validate and expand the model are proposed.

Dance
Ph.D.
This study explored best practices for teaching creative movement to twenty-four urban second graders by examining their perceptions of self and others. Creative movement education programs rarely focus on the exploration of self and group identity through the lens of diversity. More importantly, few studies have examined how to implement creative movement programs through pedagogies best suited to urban children. Over 12 weeks of practice, observation, and reflection, extensive data were collected regarding the children's interactions and creative processes. The curriculum focused on individual and group identities and examined the experiences of the children with the aim of developing pedagogical methods that best suited their urban cultural backgrounds. The study sought to answer the following research questions: 1) What are the children's perceptions of themselves and others throughout the creative movement learning process? ; and 2) How can teachers use this knowledge to devise creative dance pedagogy for urban children and create holistic curricula that develop these perceptions? During bi-weekly dance sessions, the students and teachers explored the concepts of "self" and "group" by moving, discussing, sharing different dance styles and images, using props and being actively involved in creative movement and expression. The project culminated in a school performance, in which the children presented dances that they had developed that represented the content explored in the sessions. The data collected included video recordings of the children's actions and comments, reflective drawings and texts that the children created, and observational notes recorded by an assistant teacher and the children's homeroom teacher. The video recordings of each session were transcribed and analyzed. The children's drawings and written texts, and the teacher's observational and reflective journals, were also reviewed. All data collection involved in the study was approved by the Institutional Review Board (IRB) for human subject protocol. A qualitative research approach guided the analysis, with a focus on Action Research and ideas drawn from the philosophical doctrines of Phenomenology and Phenomenography. The recorded video sessions and resulting transcriptions were used to create narrative descriptions that shed light on the children's experiences and uncovered specific elements that were of use in the development and refinement of creative movement teaching practices. Despite presenting occasional challenges as a group, the children spontaneously improvised and developed movements that expressed their preferences. They used the class as a creative outlet-aesthetically, physically and, at times, emotionally. The children danced to express their individual and group cultures as well as their movement preferences, their personal traits, and their perceptions of others. The pedagogical approach to the class promoted identity and diversity in the teaching and learning environment, providing teachers with insight into best practices for teaching urban populations. The study's Action Research methodology involved a reflective cycle of planning, action, and result. It investigated students' perceptions of themselves and others through their responses to creative movement education, and studied how these perceptions impacted creative movement facilitation. It discovered best practices that take into account students' unique cultures and learning styles. These practices can be used as a foundation for facilitators of creative movement classes involving urban children, enabling the development of curricula that explore experience, promote cultural expression, and foster diversity in learning. They also offer disciplinary strategies that cater to the environmental standards and unique needs of urban students.
Temple University--Theses

3-D human pose estimation is a crucial step for understanding human actions. However, reliably capturing precise 3-D position of human joints is non-trivial and tedious. Current models often suffer from the scarcity of high-quality 3-D annotated training data. In this work, we explore a novel way of obtaining gigantic 3-D human pose data without manual annotations. In catedioptric videos (\emph{e.g.}, people dance before a mirror), the camera records both the original and mirrored human poses, which provides cues for estimating 3-D positions of human joints. Following this idea, we crawl a large-scale Dance-before-Mirror (DBM) video dataset, which is about 24 times larger than existing Human3.6M benchmark. Our technical insight is that, by jointly harnessing the epipolar geometry and human skeleton priors, 3-D joint estimation can boil down to an optimization problem over two sets of 2-D estimations. To our best knowledge, this represents the first work that collects high-quality 3-D human data via catadioptric systems. We have conducted comprehensive experiments on cross-scenario pose estimation and visualization analysis. The results strongly demonstrate the usefulness of our proposed DBM human poses.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.