Gotowe bibliografie tematyczne / Credibility theory (Insurance)

Gotowa bibliografia na temat „Credibility theory (Insurance)”

Autor: Grafiati
Data publikacji: 4 czerwca 2021
Data aktualizacji: 3 lutego 2022

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Artykuły w czasopismach na temat "Credibility theory (Insurance)"

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Gong, Yikai, Zhuangdi Li, Maria Milazzo, Kristen Moore i Matthew Provencher. "Credibility Methods for Individual Life Insurance". Risks 6, nr 4 (11.12.2018): 144. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/risks6040144.

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Credibility theory is used widely in group health and casualty insurance. However, it is generally not used in individual life and annuity business. With the introduction of principle-based reserving (PBR), which relies more heavily on company-specific experience, credibility theory is becoming increasingly important for life actuaries. In this paper, we review the two most commonly used credibility methods: limited fluctuation and greatest accuracy (Bühlmann) credibility. We apply the limited fluctuation method to M Financial Group’s experience data and describe some general qualitative observations. In addition, we use simulation to generate a universe of data and compute Limited Fluctuation and greatest accuracy credibility factors for actual-to-expected (A/E) mortality ratios. We also compare the two credibility factors to an intuitive benchmark credibility measure. We see that for our simulated data set, the limited fluctuation factors are significantly lower than the greatest accuracy factors, particularly for low numbers of claims. Thus, the limited fluctuation method may understate the credibility for companies with favorable mortality experience. The greatest accuracy method has a stronger mathematical foundation, but it generally cannot be applied in practice because of data constraints. The National Association of Insurance Commissioners (NAIC) recognizes and is addressing the need for life insurance experience data in support of PBR—this is an area of current work.
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Ralević, Nebojša. "Construction of c-credibility measure and application in insurance". Tokovi osiguranja 36, nr 4 (2020): 7–20. http://dx.doi.org/10.5937/tokosig2002007r.

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Credibility theory provides a tool for modelling various phenomena in insurance. Changes in life circumstances such as the pandemic and its consequences require adjustment of old and creation of new theories that would improve existing parameters in modelling phenomena in insurance and actuarial analysis. Thus, by using c-credibility measure, we try to respond to some of the challenges that have emerged. The paper presents a summarised theory of c-credibility and gives an algorithm for constructing c-credibility measure, which is illustrated by an example.
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Lai, Tze Leung. "Credit Portfolios, Credibility Theory, and Dynamic Empirical Bayes". ISRN Probability and Statistics 2012 (23.12.2012): 1–42. http://dx.doi.org/10.5402/2012/832175.

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We begin with a review of (a) the pricing theory of multiname credit derivatives to hedge the credit risk of a portfolio of corporate bonds and (b) current approaches to modeling correlated default intensities. We then consider pricing of insurance contracts using credibility theory in actuarial science. After a brief discussion of the similarities and differences of both pricing theories, we propose a new unified approach, which uses recent advances in dynamic empirical Bayes modeling, to evolutionary credibility in insurance rate-making and default modeling of credit portfolios.
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Elsayed, Mahmoud, i Amr Soliman. "Bühlmann & Bühlmann-Straub Credibility for Extreme Claims Applied on Non-Life Egyptian Insurance Market: An Actuarial Approach". Journal of Business and Economics 10, nr 10 (22.10.2019): 992–1002. http://dx.doi.org/10.15341/jbe(2155-7950)/10.10.2019/.

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Credibility theory is an actuarial approach used to calculate the short term insurance premiums. The aim of this article is to calculate the credibility premium based on real data from non-life Egyptian insurance industry during 10 years period (2006 to 2015), taking into consideration the amount of incurred claims from six insurance branches and the number of extreme losses in each branch. The analysis was based on the assumptions of Bühlmann and Bühlmann-Straub credibility models in order to estimate the net credible premium for the upcoming year as a linear function of the prior claims and the number of extreme events.
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Susanti, Dwi, i Sokono Sukono. "Calculating Premium Credibility Using the Buhlmann-Straub Modelwith Nonparametric Assessment". International Journal of Global Operations Research 1, nr 1 (4.02.2020): 20–32. http://dx.doi.org/10.47194/ijgor.v1i1.15.

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When an insurance company calculates the premium it will divides the policy holders into groups. The division is considered based on risk level in each group. The problem is then to devise a way of combining the experience risk of the group with the experience of the individual risk to calculate the premium, so then Credibility Theory provides a solution to this problem.This script discuss about calculation of credibility premium use Buhlmann-Straub Model with nonparametric estimation to the aggregate claim amount data set within few years observation in some group of policy holders in general insurance. By using credibility theory we can calculate the value of credibility factor and credibility premium or future premium. The value of premium credibility is calculated from only one group of policyholders from the previous year's data. For better value of premium credibility, data with more experience years and the policyholder group better reflect the total loss value during the observation year.The result of this calculation are credibility factor per group, average credibility premium per members in group and credibility premium total for the last year for each group. We can obtain total losses and total premium which surprisingly equal.
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Prihatiningsih, Witanti, i Fitria Ayuningtyas. "Analysis of Insurance Agent’s Credibility to Customer’s Attitude in Buying Policy". International Journal of Engineering & Technology 7, nr 2.29 (22.05.2018): 564. http://dx.doi.org/10.14419/ijet.v7i2.29.13819.

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Companies must have their own criteria for their sales agents, start from how to speak in front of potential customers, personal appearance and knowledge about the products and the company itself. The credibility of sales agents will make their companies have a good reputation. Insurance agents also trained by company to introduce the products until someone willing to buy the products and become their loyal customer. This research aims to determine whether there is any significant impact of insurance agent’s credibility to customer’s attitude in buying a policy. The long-term results of the research can be used as communication competence for agents to persuade potential customers, who probably initially not interest to buy the products, became a loyal customer. This research used combination between quantitative and qualitative research. This research used regression analysis to determine the impact of insurance agent’s credibility to customer’s attitude in buying policy and combine with triangulation data from qualitative perspective. The data collection techniques used questionnaires that distributed to the respondent and in-depth interview for key informant and informant(s). The respondent of this research were people who have insurance in the city of Sukabumi, West Java. The theory that used in this research was source credibility and customer’s attitude. The results of this research indicate that trustworthiness, expertise, and attractiveness of insurance agents have a significant impact to customer’s attitude in buying a policy. From the three components, the most important thing is the expertise. The expertise of insurance agent has a highest score compare with trustworthiness and attractiveness of insurance agent and thru in-depth interview, the respondent agreed that expertise is the important things of insurance agent’s credibility. This proves that the agent's expertise is more influential compared to trustworthiness and attractiveness
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Young, Virginia R. "Credibility and Persistency". ASTIN Bulletin 26, nr 1 (maj 1996): 53–69. http://dx.doi.org/10.2143/ast.26.1.563233.

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AbstractPolicyholders often decide to buy, renew, or cancel insurance based on the premium charged by the insurer compared with what they expect their claims will be. It is important for actuaries to consider the persistency of policyholders because the financial well-being of the insurer depends on spreading its risk over a large book of business. We use statistical decision theory to develop premium formulas that account for the past experience of a given policyholder, the experience of the entire collection of policyholders, and the likelihood of the policyholder renewing with or buying from a given insurer, that is, persistency.We assume that the persistency of policyholders depends on the arithmetic difference between the premium charged and their anticipated claims. We extend the work of Taylor (1975) in which he obtains linear credibility formulas by minimizing loss functions that incorporate the persistency of policyholders. We consider Taylor's loss functions and other objective functions, including those that account for the amount of business the insurer writes or renews.
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Norberg, Ragnar. "Linear Estimation and Credibility in Continuous Time". ASTIN Bulletin 22, nr 2 (listopad 1992): 149–65. http://dx.doi.org/10.2143/ast.22.2.2005112.

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AbstractThe theory of linear filtering of stochastic processes provides continuous time analogues of finite-dimensional linear Bayes estimators known to actuaries as credibility methods. In the present paper a selfcontained theory is built for processes of bounded variation, which are of particular relevance to insurance. Two methods for constructing the optimal estimator and its mean squared error are deviced. Explicit solutions are obtained in a continuous time variation of Hachemeister's regression model and in a homogeneous doubly stochastic generalized Poisson process. The traditional discrete time set-up is compared to the one with continuous time, and some merits of the latter are pointed out.
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Holtan, Jon. "Bonus Made Easy". ASTIN Bulletin 24, nr 1 (maj 1994): 61–74. http://dx.doi.org/10.2143/ast.24.1.2005081.

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AbstractThe paper introduces an alternative approach to the traditional experience rating theory in automobile insurance. The approach is based on a simple theory of how high deductibles financed by loans maintain the risk differentiation in an automobile insurance arrangement. Thus the approach differs totally from the usual bonus-malus classes as well as from the credibility based experience rating ideas. The paper is of a theoretical nature and leads up to a mathematical description of how the approach may be optimalized within the framework of a risk model.
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AGUSTINI, SISILIA MARTINA UTAMI, I. NYOMAN WIDANA i NI KETUT TARI TASTRAWATI. "PENERAPAN METODE BAYES DALAM MENGESTIMASI PREMI RISIKO PADA ASURANSI PENYAKIT KRITIS". E-Jurnal Matematika 9, nr 4 (28.11.2020): 251. http://dx.doi.org/10.24843/mtk.2020.v09.i04.p305.

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The high number of critical illness cases and the rising medical cost affect the number of insurance claimed. It can be a problem for the insurance company in estimating future claim trend to decide the risk premium cost, so that we need a method to solve the problem which is called Empirical Bayes Credibility Theory (EBCT). Based on that information, the goal of this research is estimating the risk premium cost for critical illness cases using EBCT method. In this research, a large simulation of the expected claim data of critical illness policyholders is used, which are grouped by age and gender. In processing data by applying the EBCT method, the credibility factor is determined first, then the size of the risk premium can be estimated, with the calculation results obtained by a different estimate of the risk premium for each age group based on gender.
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Rozprawy doktorskie na temat "Credibility theory (Insurance)"

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Huang, Danwei. "Robustness of generalized estimating equations in credibility models". Click to view the E-thesis via HKUTO, 2007. http://sunzi.lib.hku.hk/hkuto/record/B38842312.

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Yan, Yujie yy. "A General Approach to Buhlmann Credibility Theory". Thesis, University of North Texas, 2017. https://digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc1011812/.

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Credibility theory is widely used in insurance. It is included in the examination of the Society of Actuaries and in the construction and evaluation of actuarial models. In particular, the Buhlmann credibility model has played a fundamental role in both actuarial theory and practice. It provides a mathematical rigorous procedure for deciding how much credibility should be given to the actual experience rating of an individual risk relative to the manual rating common to a particular class of risks. However, for any selected risk, the Buhlmann model assumes that the outcome random variables in both experience periods and future periods are independent and identically distributed. In addition, the Buhlmann method uses sample mean-based estimators to insure the selected risk, which may be a poor estimator of future costs if only a few observations of past events (costs) are available. We present an extension of the Buhlmann model and propose a general method based on a linear combination of both robust and efficient estimators in a dependence framework. The performance of the proposed procedure is demonstrated by Monte Carlo simulations.
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Huang, Danwei, i 黃丹薇. "Robustness of generalized estimating equations in credibility models". Thesis, The University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong), 2007. http://hub.hku.hk/bib/B38842312.

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Lo, Chi-ho. "Estimation of structural parameters for panel data in credibility context". Click to view the E-thesis via HKUTO, 2005. http://sunzi.lib.hku.hk/hkuto/record/B31557442.

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Abdel-Bary, Tarek Ezzat Mohamed. "New model for aviation hull insurance rating applying credibility theory". Thesis, City University London, 1991. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.304601.

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Yeo, Keng Leong Actuarial Studies Australian School of Business UNSW. "Claim dependence in credibility models". Awarded by:University of New South Wales. School of Actuarial Studies, 2006. http://handle.unsw.edu.au/1959.4/25971.

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Existing credibility models have mostly allowed for one source of claim dependence only, that across time for an individual insured risk or a group of homogeneous insured risks. Numerous circumstances demonstrate that this may be inadequate and insufficient. In this dissertation, we developed a two-level common effects model, based loosely on the Bayesian model, which allows for two possible sources of dependence, that across time for the same individual risk and that between risks. For the case of Normal common effects, we are able to derive explicit formulas for the credibility premium. This takes the intuitive form of a weighted average between the individual risk's claims experience, the group's claims experience and the prior mean. We also consider the use of copulas, a tool widely used in other areas of work involving dependence, in constructing credibility premiums. Specifically, we utilise copulas to model the dependence across time for an individual risk or group of homogeneous risks. We develop the construction with several well-known families of copulas and are able to derive explicit formulas for their respective conditional expectations. Whilst some recent work has been done on constructing credibility models with copulas, explicit formulas for the conditional expectations have rarely been made available. Finally, we calibrate these copula credibility models using a real data set. This data set relates to the claims experience of workers' compensation insurance by occupation over a 7-year period for a particular state in the United States. Our results show that for each occupation, claims dependence across time is indeed present. Amongst the copulas considered in our empirical analysis, the Cook-Johnson copula model is found to be the best fit for the data set used. The calibrated copula models are then used for prediction of the next period's claims. We found that the Cook-Johnson copula model gives superior predictions. Furthermore, this calibration exercise allowed us to uncover the importance of examining the nature of the data and comparing it with the characteristics of the copulas we are calibrating to.
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Lo, Chi-ho, i 盧子豪. "Estimation of structural parameters for panel data in credibility context". Thesis, The University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong), 2005. http://hub.hku.hk/bib/B31557442.

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Xu, Xiaochen. "Estimation of structural parameters in credibility context using mixed effects models". Click to view the E-thesis via HKUTO, 2008. http://sunzi.lib.hku.hk/hkuto/record/b4020361x.

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Moura, Filipe André Carolino. "Credibility models applied to worker's compensation insurance". Master's thesis, Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/8290.

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Mestrado em Ciências Actuariais
A Teoria da Credibilidade providencia uma maneira de tarifar um risco no ramo segurador, fazendo para isso uso do histórico de sinistros, tanto individual como colectivo, para encontrar o prémio puro. Tem estado em desenvolvimento durante aproximadamente um século e é uma ferramenta importante que qualquer actuário deverá saber utilizar. Dos vários modelos de Credibilidade disponíveis, escolhemos o Modelo Bühlmann-Straub, amplamente reconhecido como o mais importante do ramo segurador, e o Modelo Hierárquico, que expande o Modelo Bühlmann-Straub através da implementação de uma estrutura hierárquica. Estes são aplicados à linha de negócio Acidentes de Trabalho, para determinar quais as melhores abordagens a cada um dos modelos.
Credibility Theory provides a way to rate a risk in insurance, making use of both the individual and collective claim experience to find the pure premium. It has been in development for almost a century now, and is an important tool that every actuary should know. From the many Credibility Models available to use, we chose the Bühlmann-Straub model, widely regarded as the most important one in insurance, and the Hierarchical Model, that expands upon the Bühlmann-Straub model by implementing an hierarchical structure in the model. We apply these to the Worker's Compensation line of business, to determine what the best approaches to each model are.
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Xu, Xiaochen, i 徐笑晨. "Estimation of structural parameters in credibility context using mixedeffects models". Thesis, The University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong), 2008. http://hub.hku.hk/bib/B4020361X.

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Książki na temat "Credibility theory (Insurance)"

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Introduction to credibility theory. Wyd. 3. Winsted, CT: ACTEX Publications, 1999.

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Herzog, Thomas N. Introduction to credibility theory. Wyd. 4. Winsted, CT: ACTEX Publications, 2010.

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Introduction to credibility theory. Wyd. 2. Winsted, CT: ACTEX Publications, 1996.

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Herzog, Thomas N. Introduction to credibility theory. Winsted, CT: ACTEX Publications, 1994.

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Jasiulewicz, Helena. Teoria zaufania: Modele aktuarialne. Wrocław: Wydawn. Akademii Ekonomicznej im. Oskara Langego we Wrocławiu, 2005.

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Das Konzept der orthogonalen Projektion zur Bestimmung von Credibility-Schätzern in diskreter und kontinuierlicher Zeit. Frankfurt am Main: P. Lang, 2004.

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Merz, Michael. Das Konzept der orthogonalen Projektion zur Bestimmung von Credibility-Schätzern in diskreter und kontinuierlicher Zeit. Frankfurt am Main: P. Lang, 2004.

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Bayesian statistics in actuarial science: With emphasis on credibility. Boston: Kluwer Academic Publishers, 1992.

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A Course in Credibility Theory and its Applications (Universitext). Springer, 2005.

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1946-, Goovaerts M. J., red. Effective actuarial methods. Amsterdam: North-Holland, 1990.

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Części książek na temat "Credibility theory (Insurance)"

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Vylder, F. "General Regression in Multidimensional Credibility Theory". W Insurance and Risk Theory, 165–75. Dordrecht: Springer Netherlands, 1986. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-94-009-4620-0_8.

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Klugman, Stuart A. "Bayesian Credibility With A Noninformative Prior". W Insurance and Risk Theory, 195–206. Dordrecht: Springer Netherlands, 1986. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-94-009-4620-0_11.

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Wouwe, M., F. Vylder i M. Goovaerts. "Some Numerical Methods for Calculating Semilinear Credibility Estimators". W Insurance and Risk Theory, 325–47. Dordrecht: Springer Netherlands, 1986. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-94-009-4620-0_21.

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"Credibility Theory". W Pricing in General Insurance, 454–75. Chapman and Hall/CRC, 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.1201/b17525-28.

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Kermott, Cindy. "Epidemiology 1: Basic Concepts". W Mayo Clinic Preventive Medicine and Public Health Board Review, 33–43. Oxford University Press, 2010. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/med/9780199743018.003.0003.

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Descriptive and analytic methods are used in epidemiologic investigations. Statistical tools are used to describe data, evaluate hypotheses, and apply causal theory. Epidemiologic research can be used to determine whether a causative relationship exists between a disease and its associated factors. Epidemiologic data can be collected by government agencies, hospitals, medical insurance carriers, third-party payers, physician practices, and managed care programs. Each data collection system has potential weaknesses such as introduced errors, incomplete records, limited access, and nonrepresentative populations. Registries are detailed listings of all occurrences of a disease or condition within a defined region. An outbreak investigation begins by establishing the existence of an outbreak. After the case definition is established, factors such as person, time, and place are used to develop causal hypotheses. The hypotheses are tested to evaluate credibility, and reconsideration or refinement of the hypotheses may be necessary. Control measures may be taken before the outbreak source or route of spread is ascertained. Prevention and control measures must be communicated.
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Page, Piers. "Funding". W An Introduction to Clinical Research. Oxford University Press, 2011. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780199570072.003.0010.

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As it makes the world go round, it is very unlikely you’ll have got this far in planning a research project without someone asking you about money. Unfortunately no research is free — even a project that seems to carry no costs whatsoever will suddenly seem quite expensive when costed by an R&D department. It’s very important, therefore, that you anticipate all costing issues and submit a sensible bid for your project, as it gives you significantly more credibility as someone who knows what they are doing. There are many ‘hidden’ costs of an apparently simple research project. Photocopying of questionnaires is often contentious; although it’s all NHS money for NHS research, the copying will be billed to an individual department and clinical departments with massive running costs are rarely happy to underwrite research costs. Staff planning has to be done exceptionally carefully to ensure that NHS clinical time isn’t being used on the project without permission from someone with sufficient authority to give it. This often does end up being a hidden cost, as the way round it is often simply to fund a session per week to cover the half hour per day spent on the project. These are, of course, just examples. Detailed breakdown of costing points to consider is given later in the chapter; use this section to prepare a good business case and you will impress from the outset. Aside from the fact that you need it to spend on your project, funding is often (maybe unfairly) seen as a guarantee of the quality of your work. The theory that paid-for research will be better peer reviewed than its public sector or charitable equivalent is somewhat naïve, especially when one considers what agendas could underlie commercial research, but it still abounds. The current climate for research funding is confusing but awash with opportunities. The last few years have seen the creation of national funding programmes and prioritized ‘themes’ with some quite substantial budgets, in addition to the traditional sources. The Medical Research Council (MRC) was brought about by Act of Parliament in the early part of the twentieth century, setting aside a penny per working person per year from the National Insurance scheme of the time to fund tuberculosis sanitoria and medical research.
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Bergstrom, Betty, Jim Fryer i Joel Norris. "Defining Online Assessment for the Adult Learning Market". W Online Assessment and Measurement, 46–66. IGI Global, 2005. http://dx.doi.org/10.4018/978-1-59140-720-1.ch002.

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Learning for many adult professionals culminates in some form of assessment. Doctors, cosmetologists, private detectives, insurance agents, real estate brokers, plumbers, contractors, electricians, nurses, roofers, dietitians, and many others are trained in a variety of programs from community colleges to graduate programs, and increasingly their education and testing is conducted wholly or in part via e-learning platforms. Online assessment provides educators with the ability to measure learning needs, assess the results of learning activity, and speed learners toward professional credentialing by leveraging the efficient delivery framework of the Internet. In this chapter, we describe several low- to high-stakes online test delivery methods, which, when coupled with e-learning systems, can offer education providers with valuable opportunities for enriching the validity and credibility of their programs. We discuss the relationship of online assessment models in the context of e-learning, as well as distinguish between the types of testing technologies used to deliver them. We conclude by discussing the advantages and disadvantages of offering assessments online and the future of online assessment systems in general.
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Changnon, Stanley A. "What Made El Niño 1997-1998 Famous?: The Key Events Associated with a Unique Climatic Event". W El Niño, 1997-1998. Oxford University Press, 2000. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780195135510.003.0007.

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El Niño 97-98 provided one of the most interesting and widely known climatic events of this century. It garnered enormous attention not only in the scientific community but also in the media and from the American public. El Niño developed rapidly in the tropical Pacific during May 1997, and by October “El Niño “had become a household phrase across America. Television and radio, newspapers and magazines pummeled America with the dire tales of El Niño during the fall of 1997 as the climate disruption battered the West Coast and the southern United States with storm after storm. Worried families changed vacation plans, and insurance executives pondered losses and raised rates. Victims of every type of severe weather blamed El Niño . After a winter filled with unusual weather, the head of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) declared, “This winter’s El Niño ranks as one of the major climatic events of this century.” It was the first El Niño observed and forecast from start to finish. The event was noteworthy from several perspectives. • First, it became the largest and warmest El Niño to develop in the Pacific Ocean during the past 100 years. • Second, the news media gave great attention to the event, and El Niño received more attention at all levels than had any previous climate event. • Third, scientists were able to use El Niño conditions to successfully predict the climate conditions of the winter six months in advance. • Fourth, the predictive successes brought new credibility to the science of long-range prediction and, in general, acted to increase the public’s understanding of the climate and oceanic sciences. • Fifth, there were notable differences in how weather-sensitive decision makers reacted to the predictions, some used them for great gain, while others, fearing failure, did not. • Sixth, the great strength of El Niño brought forth claims that the phenomenon was the result of anthropogenic-induced global warming. This possibility was debated and added to the scientific-policy debates surrounding climate change. • Seventh, the net effect of the El Niño -influenced weather on the United States was an economic benefit, after early fears and predictions of great damages.
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