Gotowa bibliografia na temat „CONSUMER APPLIANCES”

As India continues to urbanise with its manufacturing sector growing, its energy demands have increased rapidly. In this period, the need for energy monitoring and conservation must be evident. So the consumers can monitor their load consumption by a digital wattmeter. But the digital wattmeter measures and shows the total power consumed by consumer appliances. The consumer has no idea about which appliance consumes more power. Also, the consumer will not be able to know whether any appliance is getting damaged. To resolve these issues, we have come up with this project which is an IOT-based energy monitoring and controlling system, used to measure the power consumed by each appliance (Load). The power consumed by each appliance can be monitored individually by the consumer and it also informs us if there is an issue through a web application. Also the web application stores the historical data of the power consumed by each load. An Internet of Things (IoT) technique was employed to make the system smart. A microcontroller with built-in Wi-Fi - ESP32 - was used to monitor and control each load using a web application.

Currently, sustainability is considered a priority by society, with the household appliances being one of the economic sectors involved in achieving sustainability. However, the existence of several issues (e.g., energy and water consumption, reliability, initial cost, and illuminance, among others) together with the diversity of brands and models on the market, make the consumer’s decisions regarding sustainable options difficult, according to their concerns and related to each sustainability dimension (economic, environmental, and social). By combining evolutionary algorithms (EA) with multicriteria techniques, it is possible to achieve sustainable solutions for the consumer based on their requirements. In this paper, a method is presented to support the consumer by obtaining a set of sustainable household appliances on the market that suit their preferences, concerns, and needs. By using a case study to apply the approach developed here, a set of sustainable appliances from the market is obtained, where several benefits are achieved (e.g., energy and water consumption savings, avoidance of CO2 emissions) during the lifecycle of each appliance, chosen from the appliance’s industry.

Extensive energy consumption has incurred global environmental problems such as climate change. Home appliances are highly used products and consume large amounts of energy. When widely applied, energy-efficient home appliances promote energy efficiency and reduce carbon emissions. Therefore, people’s intention to purchase these home appliances merits research attention. In this study, a comprehensive model was developed using the theories of planned behavior, perceived value, and environmental awareness. Data were collected through a questionnaire survey, to which 448 valid responses were returned, and analyzed using partial least squares. The results indicated that consumers’ intention to purchase energy-efficient home appliances was positively affected by their attitude toward purchasing the appliances. Such attitude was significantly and positively affected by functional value, price value, environmental value, and environmental awareness. However, consumers’ attitudes toward purchasing these appliances were not significantly affected by emotional value or social value. Suggestions were proposed on promoting consumer intention to purchase these home appliances according to the research results.

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to identify the barriers to consumers’ intention to purchase energy efficient appliances. It uses multiple regression analysis to predict the factors that deter consumers’ purchase intention. Design/methodology/approach Five barriers to consumers’ intention to purchase energy efficient appliances were identified through an exhaustive literature survey. Data were gathered from 300 respondents from Pune city from the state of Maharashtra in India through a survey. The items were measured on a five-point Likert scale. Validity and reliability of the scale were established. Multiple regression analysis was conducted to predict consumers’ intention to purchase energy efficient appliances based on factors identified. Findings Findings revealed that some degree of uncertainty was associated with energy efficient appliance purchase. In addition to possessing lower degrees of awareness on energy efficient appliances, consumers tend to disbelieve claims made on labels of energy efficient appliances. Consumers also feel inconvenience in identifying these appliances, spending time to know about them and paying the price to purchase them. Hence, the factors – scepticism towards label claims and perceived personal inconvenience – were found to have negative impact on consumers’ purchase intention. Societal norm was found to have a positive impact on consumers’ purchase intention. Interestingly, price sensitivity and perceived product risk (which were expected to have a negative relationship with consumers’ purchase intention) displayed a positive relationship. Research limitations/implications The model proposed here is based on the researcher’s identification of the barriers. There might have been unidentified barriers that were not considered. The research does not account for manufacturing or policy-based issues that might also pose as barriers. The study encourages marketers to re-examine marketing and communication policies associated with the sale of energy efficient appliances. Originality/value The paper provides insights into the external barriers faced by consumers while purchasing an energy efficient appliance. This research enables managers to understand consumer’s preference for conventional products over energy efficient ones. It attempts to check the presence of barriers to energy efficient appliances, identified from literature in a tier 1 city of India. Tier 1 city is the city with population greater than 1,00,000 as per 2001 census of India.

Marketing and consumer behaviour are so closely related that the study of consumer behaviour can be said to be the first step in refined marketing. Consumer behaviour study and consumer research are important allies of the marketer. The present study Consumer behaviour - A study with reference to home appliances is aimed analyzing the role of consumers involving pre-purchase activities and making the final decision. Consumer behaviour is the corner stone of marketing strategy. Business units aiming at increasing sales must understand the behaviour of consumers. A sample of 150 respondents possessing Indian made home-appliances covered in the study was selected, by using convenience sampling method. An understanding of consumer behaviour is essential in Marketing planning and programmes and one of the most important keys to successful marketing.

Purpose: to analyze the trends of modern home appliance design innovation through the exhibition scale and theme, industry hot topics, and keywords, based on the design samples of household appliances of the Appliance & electronics World Expo (AWE) exhibition from 2012 to 2021. Methodology. Using the methods of observation, analysis, synthesis, and generalization, the information about the AWE exhibition has been analyzed, and the characteristics and elements of typical home appliance products in different periods have been studied. Results: Analyzed the typical product design in China's home appliance industry, and studied the theme, key information and typical cases of the exhibition by tracking the AWE exhibition, integrated the current manufacturing development situation and consumer demand, output the current trend of home appliance product innovation, and provided referenceable suggestions for product innovation design of household appliances. Scientific novelty: China National Appliance and Consumer Electronics Expo is the authoritative home appliance event in China, from which frontier information such as industry forums or conferences can be obtained. Systematic combing of previous exhibitions can express the stray key information intuitively, rise from practical significance to theoretical logic, clarify the main topics and core contents of the development of home appliances in different periods, and thus explore the innovation trend of home appliances in theoretical perspective. Practical significance: The study of the development pulse of home appliance design innovation helps to understand the trend of home appliance development in the current social and industry context, providing manufacturing companies with the direction of innovation and transformation, as well as providing a viable reference value for the dynamic form and direction of development in the macro industry development.

Background: Some 80% of the South African (SA) middle class consumers use washing machines, electric cookers, fridges, freezers and other appliances. Considering the growing water and electricity shortages in SA, the government advocates the use of green appliances. However, the factors helping or hindering the positive attitudes, purchase and use of green appliances need examination. Focus of the article: This study focuses on the first and second steps of the community-based social marketing (CBSM) framework, whereby for behavioral change, behaviors, their drivers and barriers are to be examined before strategy formulation. Thus, this study first assessed SA black middle class consumers’ green appliances attitude, behavioral intention and actual behavior. It then integrated the Theory of Consumption Values (TCV), Diffusion of Innovations Theory (DOI), and Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) to examine the consumer-related and product-related factors helping or hindering the green appliances attitudes, behavioral intentions and actual behavior. Research Hypotheses: From the integration of the TCV, DOI and TPB, a conceptual model was developed that proposed that consumer-related factors (functional, conditional, epistemic, emotional and social values) and product-related factors (relative advantage, complexity, compatibility and observability) will influence green appliances attitude, which with perceived behavioral control will impact behavioral intention, proposed as a driver of actual behavior. Methods: Considering that the black middle-class are a fast growing and large (about 4.2 million South Africans) community of consumers, cross-sectional quantitative data was collected from 500 black middle class consumers through self-administered questionnaires. Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling was used to test 14 hypotheses. Results: The respondents expressed positive attitudes toward green appliances ( M = 5.80 on a 7-point Likert scale and positive intention to buy green appliances ( M = 5.78). Most of the study participants have purchased one or more green appliances ( M = 6.09). The integrated model explained 84.5% of attitude toward green appliances. The significant drivers of attitude were functional, conditional, and epistemic values (consumer-related factors), and relative advantage, compatibility, and observability (product-related factors). The attitude, social value and perceived behavioral control explained 83.1% of behavioral intention, which with PBC explained 24.2% of actual behavior. Recommendations for practice: Considering that the third step of the CBSM framework is to develop strategies for behavioral change, the South-African government, environmental agencies and social marketers should seek ways to reward the large segment of black middle class consumers, so that their positive green appliances attitudes and behavioral intentions can further be converted to actual purchase. The consumer-related and product-related drivers of attitudes and purchase behaviors identified in this study should be used to position and promote green appliances using the middle class consumers as opinion leaders or endorsers. Limitations: The main limitation is the use of a survey which limits provision of deeper insights into drivers and barriers of green appliances attitudes and behaviors.

Vietnam-China bilateral relationship has sharply declined due to the recent conflicts on both economic and political affairs. On top of that, the current controversial incident regarding the East Sea issue has constantly deteriorated the connection. At this critical time when the effects of consumers’ attitude toward Chinese products could not be overlooked, the empirical study aims to investigate the impacts of Consumer Animosity and Consumer Ethnocentrism on Purchase Intention of Chinese branded merchandise with the mediating role of Consumer Judgment. Household appliance category is chosen because of the dominance of Chinese brands in Vietnam market. In addition to the assessment of Animosity effect on Purchase Intention, the research is designated to examine its antecedences, including Perceived Economic Hardship and Normative Influences as well as their influences on Animosity. Structural Equation Modeling was utilized to test the theoretical framework, analyzing the data from a sample of 349 consumers with diverse backgrounds. The results have demonstrated that only Perceived economic hardship manifest a significant impacts on Animosity. Meanwhile, Animosity and Ethnocentrism have negative relationships with both Chinese branded household appliances Judgment and Purchase Intention. Overall, the study provides specific discussion and recommendations for the Vietnam household appliances industry and at the same time points into various directions for further researches.

The purpose of this study is to investigate the determinants of purchasing intention of energy efficient appliances among Malaysian households. Consumer behavior, particularly when purchasing non-environmentally friendly products, contributes significantly towards environmental problems and climate change. This study adopts the theory of planned behavior as the basis and integrates it with two external domains, namely social interaction and the quality of energy efficient appliances. A total of 318 respondents participated and were analyzed via partial least squares structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM). Findings show that perceived behavioral control and subjective norms exert a significant and positive effect on consumers’ intention to purchase energy efficient appliances, while attitude has no significant influence. Meanwhile, social interaction and quality were found to be critical determinants of intention to purchase energy efficient appliances. Implications in the context of sustainable purchasing behavior and recommendations to increase consumers’ purchases of energy efficient appliances or green appliances are discussed.

The pursuit of sustainability and the preservation of natural resources in consumers’ product choice and –consumption is a worldwide concern. This research therefore focused on the relevance and inter relationship of various motivational factors in contributing to consumers’ pro-environmental intent to purchase eco-friendly appliances in the local context. Since pro-environmental intent does not inexorably lead to environmentally significant choice behaviour, the study also investigated consumers’ prioritization of environmentally related product features in the pre-purchase evaluation and selection of major household appliances. The perspective of those with increased spending power as well as access to a wide variety of products in major urban areas (e.g. Tshwane) was of specific interest. A store intercept method with a non-probability purposive sampling approach was used to recruit respondents in stores while they were in the process of acquiring appliances. A structured questionnaire was administered in face-to-face interviews. A total of 667 questionnaires were collected, of which 648 were used for structural equation modelling and conjoint analyses. Based on the construct associations specified in a structural equation model, an awareness of environmental consequences related to product choice and consumption emerged as an indirect determinant of pro-environmental intent and represents an important precondition for the formation of subjective norms and moral attitudes. A strong and statistically significant relationship between subjective norms and moral attitudes underscore the importance of a social group’s standards in the formation of an individual’s own moral norms and attitudes. In relation to perceived behavioural control, subjective norms may fulfill an informative role when consumers are less confident in their own ability to comprehensively evaluate and select a washing machine with eco-friendly attributes. A combination of moral norms, attitudes and anticipated feelings of guilt significantly contributed to respondents’ pro-environmental intent, and even though they seemed somewhat less convinced about how easy it is to choose eco-friendly appliances, their intentions to buy such appliances consistently reflect a pro-environmental inclination. Using Sawtooth conjoint software, trade-off tasks were compiled to determine the relative importance of environmentally related attributes in relation to other conventional features in consumers’ pre-purchase evaluation and selection of washing machines. Aggregate results reveal that consumers across various age, income and educational levels prioritise brand and price, despite the long-term financial and environmental repurcussions of product features that impact on the use of natural resources. Based on a cluster analysis, four consumer segments were identified that differ in terms of preference structures. Overall, respondents rely on price and brand associations to guide their decision-making due to their inability and inexperience to objectively assess the environmental attributes of a product, which then ultimately contradicts their observed pro-environmental intent. From a practical point of view, the findings substantiate the development of tailored intervention strategies to facilitate informed decision-making and deliberation of consequences that extend beyond the initial selection of a particular product option. Strategies that emphasize the financial benefits of environmentally related features that span over the entire life cycle of the appliance might prove influential in promoting pro-environmental choices. From a theoretical perspective, the research expands an existing body of knowledge by establishing insight about consumers’ behaviour in a Third-World emerging context. In addition, it provides evidence regarding the application of existing theory and methods to explain the inconsistency between consumers’ assumed pro-environmental intent and their actual observed choices in the execution of a more complex, expensive and significant act of acquiring major household appliances.
Thesis (PhD)--University of Pretoria, 2014.
tm2015
Consumer Science
PhD
Unrestricted

Cílem této práce je zmapovat systémy ochrany spotřebitele před nebezpečnými výrobky, zjistit informovanost spotřebitelů o těchto systémech a úroveň znalostí nutných při nákupu bezpečných domácích spotřebičů.

The aim of the thesis is to analyse the women hair appliances market in the Czech republic and to evaluate the perception of the brand Rowenta. The thesis is divided into two main parts. The theoretical parts describes general knowledge of the topic with focus on consumer behavior, psychological and social factors affecting consumer buying process. At the beginning of the practical part, the main competitors on the hair appliances market in the Czech republic are introduced. The main part covers primary research, where data obtained from online questionnaire survey are analysed with focus on understanding the consumer buying behavior on this market. The conclusion contains suggested recommendation for the future prosperity of the brand.

Orientadores: Gilberto de Martino Jannuzzi, Guilherme de Castilho Queiroz
Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Faculdade de Engenharia Mecanica
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Resumo: o objetivo desta dissertação é discutir a aplicação das metodologias de Análise do Custo do Ciclo de Vida (ACCV) e de Análise Estatística como ferramentas para propor padrões de eficiência energética, complementares às etiquetas (selos) voluntárias já existentes, nos refrigeradores brasileiros de uma porta. Um outro objetivo é estudar o papel desses instrumentos (Selos e Padrões de Eficiência Energética) como meios de fornecer subsídios técnicos para o estabelecimento de níveis máximos de consumo de energia elétrica para equipamentos consumidores de eletricidade comercializados no Brasil. As metodologias ACCV e Análise Estatística permitem avaliar os impactos do aumento de eficiência energética nesses equipamentos, resultando em economias (de energia, financeiras, redução na emissão de dióxido de carbono, etc.) importantes para os consumidores e para o País. Os resultados alcançados nesse estudo apresentam importantes dados para subsidiar discussões mais aprofundadas com os fabricantes e governo para estipular padrões mínimos de eficiência energética para os refrigeradores brasileiros. Uma das importantes conclusões é que, apesar de existirem outras metodologias como a Análise Estatística, a ACCV que leva em conta os custos tecnológicos permite que se conheça melhor o mercado (custos, capacidades tecnológicas, etc.) e sugere os melhores Padrões Mínimos de Eficiência Energética (MEPS - Minimum Energy Performance Standards) com o máximo retomo econômico para o consumidor. Contudo, quando não é possível coletar todos os dados exigidos para a aplicação da ACCV, recorre-se a uma análise mais simplificada, ou seja, à metodologia de Análise Estatística
Abstract: The objective ofthis thesis is to discuss the application of the methodologies of Life Cycle Cost Analysis(LCCA) and of Statistical Analysis as tools to propose energy efficiency standards, complementally to the voluntary labels already existent in the Brazilian one-door refrigerators. Another objective is to study the role of these instruments (energy efficiency labels and standards) in order to seek technical subsidies for the establishment of maximum level of electric energy consumption for electrical equipments in Brazil. The LCCA and Statistical Analysis methodologies permit to evaluate the impacts of the energy efficiency increase in electrical equipments commercialized in Brazil, resulting in important savings (energy, financial, carbon dioxide emissions avoided etc) for the country and its citizens. The results of this study offer important data to subsidize deeper discussions with manufacturers and the govemment to stipulate minimum energy efficiency standards for the Brazilian refrigerators. One of the important conclusions is that, even though there are other methodologies, such as the Statistical Analysis which does not take technological costs into account, the LCCA allows to better understand the market (costs, technological capacity etc) and suggests the best MEPS (Minimum Energy Performance Standards) with the maximum economic retum for the consumer. Nevertheless, when it is not possible to collect all the necessary data to apply the LCCA, it can be used a more simplified analysis, such as the Statistical Analysis methodology
Mestrado
Mestre em Planejamento de Sistemas Energéticos

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.