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Artykuły w czasopismach na temat "Concurrent Extremes"
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Dombry, Clément, Mathieu Ribatet i Stilian Stoev. "Probabilities of Concurrent Extremes". Journal of the American Statistical Association 113, nr 524 (12.06.2018): 1565–82. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/01621459.2017.1356318.
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Bennett, Katrina E., Carl Talsma i Riccardo Boero. "Concurrent Changes in Extreme Hydroclimate Events in the Colorado River Basin". Water 13, nr 7 (1.04.2021): 978. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/w13070978.
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Extreme events resulting in catastrophic damage have more than doubled in the last five years, costing hundreds of lives and thousands of homes, and heavily undermining regional economic stability. At present, most of these hydroclimatic extreme events are documented by the media as individual events; however, in scientific terms, many are better understood as concurrent events—concurrent extremes of both temperature and precipitation (e.g., drought, floods). This paper considers concurrent changes in hydroclimate extremes, including heatwaves, drought, flooding, and low flows, in six historical-to-future (1970–1999, 2070–2099) Earth System Model (ESM) climate scenarios for the Colorado River basin. Results indicate that temperature-driven Impacts (heatwaves, drought) have the strongest responses while precipitation-driven Impacts have weaker responses. All Impacts exhibit an increase in magnitude from synoptic to annual time scales, with heatwaves increasing in strength about three times at the annual time scale versus the synoptic, while low flows only increase slightly. Critical watersheds in the Colorado were identified, highlighting the Blue River basin, Uncompahgre, East Taylor, Salt/Verde watersheds, locations of important water infrastructures, water resources, and hydrological research. Our results indicate that concurrent extreme hydroclimate events are projected to increase in the future and intensify within critical regions of the Colorado River basin. Considering extreme hydroclimate events concurrently is an important step towards linking economic and social effects of these events and their associated instabilities on a regional scale.
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Batibeniz, Fulden, Mathias Hauser i Sonia Isabelle Seneviratne. "Countries most exposed to individual and concurrent extremes and near-permanent extreme conditions at different global warming levels". Earth System Dynamics 14, nr 2 (26.04.2023): 485–505. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-485-2023.
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Abstract. It is now certain that human-induced climate change is increasing the incidence of extreme temperature, precipitation and drought events globally. A critical aspect of these extremes is their potential concurrency that can result in substantial impacts on society and environmental systems. Therefore, quantifying concurrent extremes in current and projected climate is necessary to take measures and adapt to future challenges associated with such conditions. Here we investigate changes in individual and concurrent extremes in multi-model simulations of the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) for different global warming levels (GWLs). We focus on the individual and simultaneous occurrence of the extreme events, encompassing heatwaves, droughts, maximum 1 d precipitation (Rx1day), and extreme wind (wind), as well as the compound events heatwave–drought and Rx1day–wind in the pre-industrial period (1850–1900; reference period), for approximately present conditions (+1 ∘C of global warming), and at three higher global warming levels (GWLs of +1.5, +2 and +3 ∘C). We focus our analysis on 139 countries and three climatic macro-regions: northern mid- and high-latitude countries (MHC), subtropical countries (STC), and tropical countries (TRC). We find that, on a global scale, most individual extremes become more frequent and affect more land area for higher GWLs. Changes in frequency of individual heatwaves, droughts, Rx1day and extreme wind with higher GWLs cause shifts in timing and disproportionate increases in frequency of concurrent events across different months and different regions. As a result, concurrent occurrences of the investigated extremes become 2.0 to 9.6 times more frequent at +3 ∘C of global warming compared to the pre-industrial period. At +3 ∘C the most dramatic increase is identified for concurrent heatwave–drought events, with a 9.6-times increase for MHC, an 8.4-times increase for STC and a 6.8-times increase for TRC compared to the pre-industrial period. By contrast, Rx1day–wind events increased the most in TRC (5.3 times), followed by STC (2.3 times) and MHC (2.0 times) at +3 ∘C with respect to the pre-industrial period. Based on the 2015 population, these frequency changes imply an increase in the number of concurrent heatwave–drought (Rx1day–wind) events per capita for 82 % (41 %) of countries. Our results also suggest that there are almost no time periods (on average 0 or only 1 month per year) without heatwaves, droughts, Rx1day and extreme wind for 21 countries at +1.5 ∘C of global warming, 37 countries at +2 ∘C and 85 countries at +3 ∘C, compared to 2 countries at +1 ∘C of global warming. This shows that a large number of countries will shift to near-permanent extreme conditions even at global warming levels consistent with the limits of the Paris Agreement. Given the projected disproportionate frequency increases and decreasing non-event months across GWLs, our results strongly emphasize the risks of uncurbed greenhouse gas emissions.
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De Luca, Paolo, Gabriele Messori, Robert L. Wilby, Maurizio Mazzoleni i Giuliano Di Baldassarre. "Concurrent wet and dry hydrological extremes at the global scale". Earth System Dynamics 11, nr 1 (10.03.2020): 251–66. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-251-2020.
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Abstract. Multi-hazard events can be associated with larger socio-economic impacts than single-hazard events. Understanding the spatio-temporal interactions that characterize the former is therefore of relevance to disaster risk reduction measures. Here, we consider two high-impact hazards, namely wet and dry hydrological extremes, and quantify their global co-occurrence. We define these using the monthly self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index based on the Penman–Monteith model (sc_PDSI_pm), covering the period 1950–2014, at 2.5∘ horizontal resolution. We find that the land areas affected by extreme wet, dry, and wet–dry events (i.e. geographically remote yet temporally co-occurring wet or dry extremes) are all increasing with time, the trends of which in dry and wet–dry episodes are significant (p value ≪ 0.01). The most geographically widespread wet–dry event was associated with the strong La Niña in 2010. This caused wet–dry anomalies across a land area of 21 million km2 with documented high-impact flooding and drought episodes spanning diverse regions. To further elucidate the interplay of wet and dry extremes at a grid cell scale, we introduce two new metrics: the wet–dry (WD) ratio and the extreme transition (ET) time intervals. The WD ratio measures the relative occurrence of wet or dry extremes, whereas ET quantifies the average separation time of hydrological extremes with opposite signs. The WD ratio shows that the incidence of wet extremes dominates over dry extremes in the USA, northern and southern South America, northern Europe, north Africa, western China, and most of Australia. Conversely, dry extremes are more prominent in most of the remaining regions. The median ET for wet to dry is ∼27 months, while the dry-to-wet median ET is 21 months. We also evaluate correlations between wet–dry hydrological extremes and leading modes of climate variability, namely the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO). We find that ENSO and PDO have a similar influence globally, with the former significantly impacting (p value < 0.05) a larger area (18.1 % of total sc_PDSI_pm area) compared to the latter (12.0 %), whereas the AMO shows an almost inverse pattern and significantly impacts the largest area overall (18.9 %). ENSO and PDO show the most significant correlations over northern South America, the central and western USA, the Middle East, eastern Russia, and eastern Australia. On the other hand, the AMO shows significant associations over Mexico, Brazil, central Africa, the Arabian Peninsula, China, and eastern Russia. Our analysis brings new insights on hydrological multi-hazards that are of relevance to governments and organizations with globally distributed interests. Specifically, the multi-hazard maps may be used to evaluate worst-case disaster scenarios considering the potential co-occurrence of wet and dry hydrological extremes.
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Zhan, Wang, Xiaogang He, Justin Sheffield i Eric F. Wood. "Projected Seasonal Changes in Large-Scale Global Precipitation and Temperature Extremes Based on the CMIP5 Ensemble". Journal of Climate 33, nr 13 (1.07.2020): 5651–71. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-19-0311.1.
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AbstractOver the past decades, significant changes in temperature and precipitation have been observed, including changes in the mean and extremes. It is critical to understand the trends in hydroclimatic extremes and how they may change in the future as they pose substantial threats to society through impacts on agricultural production, economic losses, and human casualties. In this study, we analyzed projected changes in the characteristics, including frequency, seasonal timing, and maximum spatial and temporal extent, as well as severity, of extreme temperature and precipitation events, using the severity–area–duration (SAD) method and based on a suite of 37 climate models archived in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Comparison between the CMIP5 model estimated extreme events and an observation-based dataset [Princeton Global Forcing (PGF)] indicates that climate models have moderate success in reproducing historical statistics of extreme events. Results from the twenty-first-century projections suggest that, on top of the rapid warming indicated by a significant increase in mean temperature, there is an overall wetting trend in the Northern Hemisphere with increasing wet extremes and decreasing dry extremes, whereas the Southern Hemisphere will have more intense wet extremes. The timing of extreme precipitation events will change at different spatial scales, with the largest change occurring in southern Asia. The probability of concurrent dry/hot and wet/hot extremes is projected to increase under both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, whereas little change is detected in the probability of concurrent dry/cold events and only a slight decrease of the joint probability of wet/cold extremes is expected in the future.
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Huang, Whitney K., Adam H. Monahan i Francis W. Zwiers. "Estimating concurrent climate extremes: A conditional approach". Weather and Climate Extremes 33 (wrzesień 2021): 100332. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2021.100332.
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Liu, Lulu, Yuan Jiang, Jiangbo Gao, Aiqing Feng, Kewei Jiao, Shaohong Wu, Liyuan Zuo, Yuqing Li i Rui Yan. "Concurrent Climate Extremes and Impacts on Ecosystems in Southwest China". Remote Sensing 14, nr 7 (31.03.2022): 1678. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/rs14071678.
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Global warming and its associated changes in temperature and precipitation have significantly affected the ecosystem in Southwest China, yet studies that integrate temperature and precipitation changes are inadequate for quantitatively assessing the impacts of extreme events on ecosystems. In this study, the return period of concurrent climate extremes characterized by precipitation deficit and extreme temperature and the spatial and temporal dynamic patterns of their impacts on ecosystems were assessed by using high-precision temperature and precipitation data, as well as NDVI and NPP data collected for the 1985–2015 period. The results show that the 2009 concurrent event had a return period of about 200 years. The return periods of individual climate factors are significantly overestimated or underestimated. Concurrent events significantly reduced the spring and annual Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and net primary productivity (NPP) in Southwest China. The magnitude of the reduction in vegetation greenness and productivity increased with the intensity of concurrent events. Concurrent events beginning in autumn 2009 reduced spring NDVI and NPP by 8.8% and 23%, and annual NDVI and NPP by 2.23% and 7.22%, respectively. Under future climate scenarios, the return period of concurrent events could be significantly shortened, which would have a more severe impact on regional ecosystems.
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Chatzopoulos, Thomas, Ignacio Pérez Domínguez, Andrea Toreti, Marcel Adenäuer i Matteo Zampieri. "Potential impacts of concurrent and recurrent climate extremes on the global food system by 2030". Environmental Research Letters 16, nr 12 (22.11.2021): 124021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac343b.
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Abstract The risk of food-supply instability is expected to increase along with the frequency and intensity of extreme agro-climatic events in many regions. Assessing the sensitivity of the global agricultural system to evolving extremes requires the probability of occurrence of such events to be estimated and their links with potential food supply and demand culminations to be established. From this perspective, in this article we implement a novel approach that can be used as a tool to inform decision-makers about the resilience of agricultural markets to climate extremes. By incorporating simulated climate-stress events into a partial-equilibrium model of interconnected agricultural commodity markets, we examine the complex manifestations of grain supply, demand and prices attributable to hazardous extremes. Market outcomes are further synthesized into coherently defined vulnerability and risk indicators. The proposed framework currently covers compound heat and water anomalies at the country level, potentially concurrent and recurrent, that impact annual crop yields and market balances in a recursive-dynamic manner until 2030. Our findings indicate that extreme-climate anomalies significantly distort expected market equilibria in the medium term. Moreover, extreme global prices may result either from climate anomalies in single key countries or from simultaneous events in many regions. Last but not least, trade and storage come forth as important alleviative mechanisms of the market uncertainty provoked by recurrent extremes.
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Contzen, Justus, Thorsten Dickhaus i Gerrit Lohmann. "Variability and extremes: statistical validation of the Alfred Wegener Institute Earth System Model (AWI-ESM)". Geoscientific Model Development 15, nr 4 (3.03.2022): 1803–20. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1803-2022.
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Abstract. Coupled general circulation models are of paramount importance to quantitatively assessing the magnitude of future climate change. Usual methods for validating climate models include the evaluation of mean values and covariances, but less attention is directed to the evaluation of extremal behaviour. This is a problem because many severe consequences of climate change are due to climate extremes. We present a method for model validation in terms of extreme values based on classical extreme value theory. We further discuss a clustering algorithm to detect spatial dependencies and tendencies for concurrent extremes. To illustrate these methods, we analyse precipitation extremes of the Alfred Wegener Institute Earth System Model (AWI-ESM) global climate model and from other models that take part in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project CMIP6 and compare them to the reanalysis data set CRU TS4.04. The clustering algorithm presented here can be used to determine regions of the climate system that are then subjected to a further in-depth analysis, and there may also be applications in palaeoclimatology.
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Niggli, Laura, Christian Huggel, Veruska Muccione, Raphael Neukom i Nadine Salzmann. "Towards improved understanding of cascading and interconnected risks from concurrent weather extremes: Analysis of historical heat and drought extreme events". PLOS Climate 1, nr 8 (10.08.2022): e0000057. http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000057.
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Weather extremes can affect many different assets, sectors and systems of the human environment, including human security, health and well-being. Weather extremes that compound, such as heat and drought, and their interconnected risks are complex, difficult to understand and thus a challenge for risk analysis and management, because (in intertwined systems) impacts can propagate through multiple sectors. In a warming climate, extreme concurrent heat and drought events are expected to increase in frequency, intensity and duration, posing growing risks to societies. To gain a better understanding of compound extremes and associated risks, we analyze eight historical heat and drought extreme events in Europe, Africa and Australia. We investigated and visualized the direct and indirect impact paths through different sectors and systems together with the impacts of response and adaptation measures. We found the most important cascading processes and interlinkages centered around the health, energy and agriculture and food production sectors. The key cascades result in impacts on the economy, the state and public services and ultimately also on society and culture. Our analysis shows that cascading impacts can propagate through numerous sectors with far reaching consequences, potentially being able to destabilize entire socio-economic systems. We emphasize that the future challenge in research on and adaptation to concurrent extreme events lies in the integration of assets, sectors and systems with strong interlinkages to other sectors and with a large potential for cascading impacts, but for which we cannot resort to historical experiences. Integrating approaches to deal with concurrent extreme events should furthermore consider the effects of possible response and adaptation mechanisms to increase system resilience.
Rozprawy doktorskie na temat "Concurrent Extremes"
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Coker, Zachary. "Deleterious Synergistic Effects of Concurrent Magnetic Field and Superparamagnetic (Fe3O4) Nanoparticle Exposures on CHO-K1 Cell Line". Thesis, University of North Texas, 2015. https://digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc799479/.
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While many investigations have been performed to establish a better understanding of the effects that magnetic fields and nanoparticles have on cells, the fundamental mechanisms behind the interactions are still yet unknown, and investigations on concurrent exposure are quite limited in scope. This study was therefore established to investigate the biological impact of concurrent exposure to magnetic nanoparticles and extremely-low frequency magnetic fields using an in-vitro CHO-K1 cell line model, in an easily reproducible manner to establish grounds for further in-depth mechanistic, proteomic, and genomic studies. Cells were cultured and exposed to 10nm Fe3O4 nanoparticles, and DC or low frequency (0Hz, 50Hz, and 100Hz) 2.0mT magnetic fields produced by a Helmholtz coil pair. The cells were then observed under confocal fluorescence microscopy, and subject to MTT biological assay to determine the synergistic effects of these concurrent exposures. No effects were observed on cell morphology or microtubule network; however, cell viability was observed to decrease more drastically under the combined effects of magnetic field and nanoparticle exposures, as compared to independent exposures alone. It was concluded that no significant difference was observed between the types of magnetic fields, and their effects on the nanoparticle exposed cells, but quite clearly there are deleterious synergistic effects of these concurrent magnetic field and nanoparticle exposure conditions.
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Calderón, Vega Felícitas. "Probabilistic characterization of single and concurrent metocean variables of Mexican coasts with seasonal variability using extreme value theory, with application to reliability of coastal structures". Doctoral thesis, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, 2021. http://hdl.handle.net/10803/672117.
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This thesis encompasses a set of different subjects related to metocean variables but studied from different perspectives. The metocean variables are mainly significant wave heights and wind velocities and, to a lesser extent, wave periods. The extreme value theory is used to probabilistically characterized the metocean variables by means of the generalized extreme value distribution (GEV). The effect of seasonality is included by considering monthly maxima and using harmonic and subharmonic functions (i.e., time dependency in the GEV model is incorporated). Although Mexican information was not available to this study, the studies are considered applicable to Mexican coasts in the Gulf of Mexico and the Pacific, since available public information from U.S. buoys located in the Atlantic and Pacific oceans relatively close to the Mexican coasts is employed. For the Pacific region, the GEV model accounting for seasonality is applied to data from a buoy (this is reported in an article in the appendix and summarized as a book chapter in the compendium of publications) and comparisons are carried out versus analogous results for buoys in the Gulf of Mexico obtained in a previous study (included also in the appendix). In other part of the thesis (another book chapter in the compendium), but also for the buoy in the Pacific Ocean, a study is carried out to assess the impact of including or excluding an atypical wave height in the seasonality and in future projections (i.e., wave heights associated with given return periods), since an atypically large significant wave heigh was observed for the considered buoy. One more study (an article in the compendium) introduces the wind velocity as a Metocean variable to be characterized with the time-dependent GEV model from data of a buoy in the Gulf of Mexico. This wind velocity is not for monthly maxima, but for the recorded wind velocity which simultaneously occurred with the maximum significant wave heights. This allowed to propose a simplified approach to determined concurrent significant wave heights and associated wind velocities for given return periods, while accounting for seasonality and quantitatively establishing the uncertainty in the correlated metocean variables in question. This proposal can be potentially used for design and engineering purposes, if the metocean are considered as hazards which imposed demands on coastal (and structural) engineering systems. Additionally, the effect of varying the considered time window for the extreme projections is explored. In a final study (also an article in the compendium), an introduction to the reliability of coastal (and also structural) engineering systems is presented; a breakwater is used as case-study. The coastal structure is subjected to the action of wave heights with different wave periods, for which the joint Longuet-Higgins distribution is used, and the overtopping probability of failure is computed by using classical and revisited reliability approaches. Future studies could combine the characterization of metocean variables as time-dependent GEV models and the used reliability approaches to further investigate the reliability of coastal and offshore systems.Esta tesis abarca diferentes temas relacionados con variables meteoceanográficas (metocean) pero estudiadas desde diversas perspectivas. Estas variables son principalmente el oleaje significativo y la velocidad de viento, y en menor medida el período de oleaje. Se emplea la teoría de valores extremos para caracterizar probabilísticamente las variables meteoceanográficas mediante el uso de la distribución de extremos generalizada (GEV, por sus siglas en inglés), incluyendo el efecto de la estacionalidad al considerar máximos valores mensuales, así como funciones armónicas y subarmónicas, lo que significa que el modelo GEV es función del tiempo. Aunque no se contó con información mexicana para el presente trabajo, se considera que lo desarrollado aquí puede aplicarse a las costas mexicanas, ya que se usaron datos de boyas estadounidenses situadas en los océanos Atlántico y Pacífico y relativamente cercanas a costas mexicanas. Para la región del Pacífico se aplica el modelo GEV a una boya (esto se describe en un artículo en el apéndice y resumido como capítulo de libro en el compendio de publicaciones) y los resultados se comparan con resultados análogos de un estudio previo, pero para boyas localizadas en el Golfo de México (dicho estudio también está contenido en el apéndice). En otra parte de la tesis, pero también para la boya del Pacífico (otro capítulo de libro en el compendio), mediante un estudio se estima el impacto de incluir o excluir un dato atípico de la altura de oleaje en la estacionalidad y proyecciones a futuro (i.e., las alturas de oleaje asociadas a periodos de retorno dados), ya que se observó una ola atípicamente alta para la boya considerada. Un estudio más (un artículo del compendio) incorpora a las velocidades de viento como variable meteoceanográfica para también caracterizarla como un modelo GEV que depende del tiempo, con datos de una boya situada en el Golfo de México. Estas velocidades de viento no corresponden a las máximas reportadas en cada mes, sino a aquellas que ocurrieron simultáneamente con las máximas alturas significativas generadas por oleaje. Esto conllevó a proponer un método simplificado para determinar alturas de oleaje significativo concurrentes con los vientos asociados a la misma boya y tiempo y para un periodo de retorno dado, y al mismo tiempo incorporando efectos de estacionalidad y estableciendo de manera cuantitativa la incertidumbre para las variables correlacionadas mencionadas. Esta propuesta es potencialmente útil para propósitos de diseño e ingenieriles, si las variables meteoceanográficas se consideran como peligros que imponen demandas a sistemas de ingeniería costeros (y estructurales). Adicionalmente, se explora el efecto de utilizar diferentes ventanas de tiempo en las proyecciones de valores extremos. En un estudio final (también un artículo del compendio) se presenta una introducción a la confiabilidad de sistemas de ingeniería costera (y también estructural), usando un rompeolas como caso de estudio. La estructura costera se somete a la acción de oleaje con diferentes periodos, mediante el uso de la distribución de Longuet-Higgins, y se calculan las probabilidades de falla por rebase aplicando métodos de confiabilidad clásicos, y otros métodos consultados en retrospectiva y reconsiderados prospectivamente. Estudios futuros podrían combinar el uso de modelos GEV como función del tiempo para caracterizar variables meteoceanográficas con el uso de métodos de confiabilidad, para investigar más a fondo la confiabilidad de sistemas costeros y costa afuera.
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Lu, Yang. "Analyse de survie bivariée à facteurs latents : théorie et applications à la mortalité et à la dépendance". Thesis, Paris 9, 2015. http://www.theses.fr/2015PA090020/document.
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Cette thèse étudie quelques problèmes d’identification et d’estimation dans les modèles de survie bivariée, avec présence d’hétérogénéité individuelle et des facteurs communs stochastiques.Chapitre I introduit le cadre général.Chapitre II propose un modèle pour la mortalité des deux époux dans un couple. Il permet de distinguer deux types de dépendance : l’effet de deuil et l’effet lié au facteur de risque commun des deux époux. Une analyse de leurs effets respectifs sur les primes d’assurance écrites sur deux têtes est proposée.Chapitre III montre que, sous certaines hypothèses raisonnables, on peut identifier l’évolution jointe du risque d’entrer en dépendance et du risque de mortalité, à partir des données de mortalité par cohortes. Une application à la population française est proposée.Chapitre IV étudie la queue de distribution dans les modèles de survie bivariée. Sous certaines hypothèses, la loi jointe des deux durées résiduelles converge, après une normalisation adéquate. Cela peut être utilisé pour analyser le risque parmi les survivants aux âges élevés. Parallèlement, la distribution d’hétérogénéité parmi les survivants converge vers une distribution semi-paramétriqueThis thesis comprises three essays on identification and estimation problems in bivariate survival models with individual and common frailties.The first essay proposes a model to capture the mortality dependence of the two spouses in a couple. It allows to disentangle two types of dependencies : the broken heart syndrome and the dependence induced by common risk factors. An analysis of their respective effects on joint insurance premia is also proposed.The second essay shows that, under reasonable model specifications that take into account the longevity effect, we can identify the joint distribution of the long-term care and mortality risks from the observation of cohort mortality data only. A numerical application to the French population data is proposed.The third essay conducts an analysis of the tail of the joint distribution for general bivariate survival models with proportional frailty. We show that under appropriate assumptions, the distribution of the joint residual lifetimes converges to a limit distribution, upon normalization. This can be used to analyze the mortality and long-term care risks at advanced ages. In parallel, the heterogeneity distribution among survivors converges also to a semi-parametric limit distribution. Properties of the limit distributions, their identifiability from the data, as well as their implications are discussed
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Sharma, Shailza. "Modeling the Dependence Structure of Hydroclimatic Extremes". Thesis, 2020. https://etd.iisc.ac.in/handle/2005/4559.
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Analysis of extremes in a complex interacting hydroclimatic system is challenging due to rarity of events, small sample size, poor state of data or missing data, lack of statistical tools for analyzing observed changes and poor understanding of interactions of extremes. This thesis addresses the challenge of lack of statistical tools specifically suited for modeling hydroclimatic extremes. Significant changes are observed in the intensity, frequency, duration, timing and spatial extent of hydroclimatic extremes. Understanding the nature of these changing characteristics is a major challenge for hydroclimatic research community. Recent high impact extremes provide strong evidences for the interconnections of extremes. The boundaries of system are widening with the changes leading to a greater need to consider the dependencies between interacting processes for reliable risk estimates. A contribution of this thesis is to identify statistical procedures for modeling the extremal dependence structure in order to facilitate accurate probabilistic characterization of hydro-meteorological processes. Extreme rainfall is the most common cause of flooding and likelihood of such events is found to increase in recent studies. Large scale natural variability, human induced global warming and local atmospheric warming are important drivers of extreme rainfall. A methodology to investigate the association of daily rainfall extremes with plausible physical drivers is presented in this thesis. Non-stationary extreme value models are used to investigate the association and Copula theory is used to capture the dependence structure of extreme rainfall with the most significant physical driver. A combination of multiple processes can lead to devastating consequences, making the recovery of the system more difficult. Common statistical modeling practices or conceptual frameworks cannot capture the interrelationships of multiple extreme events which mutually enhance each-other. A statistical procedure to investigate the changes in the characteristics of concurrent meteorological droughts and heatwaves is presented in the thesis. Changes in the frequency and spatial extent of concurrent extremes are quantified over India to identify the hotspots which need immediate attention. The complex nature of concurrent extremes requires a new perspective for robust risk assessment. This thesis identifies parametric multivariate extreme value models as a suitable tool to model the dependence structure of concurrent extremes and disentangle their complex interactions. Extremal dependence structure of rainfall deficits, soil moisture deficits and high temperatures is explicitly described through angular densities on the two-dimensional simplex. These models can provide a powerful new perspective for appropriate statistical analysis of dependent hydroclimatic extremes in higher dimensions. Clustering of extreme rainfall in short period of time is responsible for huge economic and environmental losses. Extreme value models have been widely used to model the magnitudes of extreme events; however, little attention is paid to the duration of the extreme events due to challenges in modeling the dependence within the clusters of exceedances. This thesis presents a hierarchical Bayesian model to capture the temporal dependence structure of extreme rainfall spells. Specifically, this model addresses the risk of a flooding situation which arises due to heavy rainfall for a few consecutive days. The work presented in this thesis emphasizes the necessity of capturing the dependence structure of extremes to improve the understanding, modeling and prediction of hydroclimatic extremes.
Książki na temat "Concurrent Extremes"
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Amini, Kamran. Extreme C: Taking You to the Limit in Concurrency, OOP, and the Most Advanced Capabilities of C. Packt Publishing, Limited, 2019.
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Maslon, Laurence. Hymn for a Sunday Evening. Oxford University Press, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780199832538.003.0009.
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Ed Sullivan dominated Sunday night primetime television for a quarter of a century with his extremely popular and inclusive variety show (first called Toast of the Town, then The Ed Sullivan Show). A former (and concurrent) Broadway columnist, Sullivan adored the mythology of Broadway and promoted its history—in song and performance—on practically every broadcast. Expanding on the reach of radio, television allowed for millions of Americans to get their first glimpse of Broadway magic through Sullivan’s promotion of current shows and tributes to giants of the past. The musical Bye Bye Birdie paid homage to the great impresario of the television age by writing him into the show. Sullivan’s domination of the airwaves also nearly parallels the so-called Golden Age of the Broadway musical.
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Sousa Alves, Gilberto, Felipe Kenji Sudo i Johannes Pantel. The treatment of bipolar disorder in the elderly. Oxford University Press, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/med/9780198748625.003.0022.
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Bipolar disorder (BD) is an extremely disabling condition characterized by mood switches, and cognitive and functional impairment. The current chapter discusses the updated review on pharmacological and non-pharmacological interventions targeting BD in the elderly. The risk of concurrent medical diseases (eg, metabolic syndrome) and relatively lower tolerability than young BD make the patient safety a major concern in most cases. Evidence-based guidelines, although useful for promoting rational and effective therapy, are generally lacking in elderly BD. Current recommendations for acute mania include atypical antipsychotics, careful use of lithium, and election of valproate as the gold-standard therapy. In acute BD depression, first-line agents in monotherapy may include lithium, lamotrigine, quetiapine, and quetiapine extended release (XR). Electroconvulsive therapy may be an option for severe/refractory cases. Family members or caregivers should be encouraged to support the patient, since potential ethical issues involving patrimony or profession may arise during the treatment.
Części książek na temat "Concurrent Extremes"
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Modiri, Ehsan. "Climate Change and Concurrency of Extreme Events". W Climate Change, 151–70. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-86290-9_10.
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Li, Wenhai, Zhiling Cheng, Yuan Chen, Ao Li i Lingfeng Deng. "Lock-Free Bucketized Cuckoo Hashing". W Euro-Par 2023: Parallel Processing, 275–88. Cham: Springer Nature Switzerland, 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-39698-4_19.
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AbstractConcurrent hash tables are one of the fundamental building blocks for cloud computing. In this paper, we introduce lock-free modifications to in-memory bucketized cuckoo hashing. We present a novel concurrent strategy in designing a lock-free hash table, called LFBCH, that paves the way towards scalability and high space efficiency. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first attempt to incorporate lock-free technology into in-memory bucketized cuckoo hashing, while still providing worst-case constant-scale lookup time and extremely high load factor. All of the operations over LFBCH, such as get, put, “kick out” and rehash, are guaranteed to be lock-free, without introducing notorious problems like false miss and duplicated key. The experimental results indicate that under mixed workloads with up to 64 threads, the throughput of LFBCH is 14%–360% higher than other popular concurrent hash tables.
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Tredup, Ronny, Christian Rosenke i Karsten Wolf. "Elementary Net Synthesis Remains NP-Complete Even for Extremely Simple Inputs". W Application and Theory of Petri Nets and Concurrency, 40–59. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-91268-4_3.
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Castro, David, Francisco Ferreira i Nobuko Yoshida. "EMTST: Engineering the Meta-theory of Session Types". W Tools and Algorithms for the Construction and Analysis of Systems, 278–85. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-45237-7_17.
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Abstract Session types provide a principled programming discipline for structured interactions. They represent a wide spectrum of type-systems for concurrency. Their type safety is thus extremely important. EMTST is a tool to aid in representing and validating theorems about session types in the Coq proof assistant. On paper, these proofs are often tricky, and error prone. In proof assistants, they are typically long and difficult to prove. In this work, we propose a library that helps validate the theory of session types calculi in proof assistants. As a case study, we study two of the most used binary session types systems: we show the impossibility of representing the first system in $$\alpha $$-equivalent representations, and we prove type preservation for the revisited system. We develop our tool in the Coq proof assistant, using locally nameless for binders and small scale reflection to simplify the handling of linear typing environments.
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Balibar, Étienne. "Blanchot’s Insubordination: On the Writing of the Manifesto of the 121". W Citizen Subject, tłumacz Steven Miller. Fordham University Press, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.5422/fordham/9780823273607.003.0016.
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This chapter analyzes the encounter between the radicality of the Manifesto of the 121 and the specific radicality of Blanchot's own thinking and writing. First, the chapter adheres to the letter of the manifesto and discusses the implications of its key words and expressions. It then examines the intersection between the idea of a “declared right to insubordination” and other of Blanchot's formulations that refer to the idea of a refusal or negativity that under certain circumstances might be carried to extremes. Finally, this chapter outlines two concurrent hypotheses that can be formed with respect to the idea of a “foundation without foundation” of the law, which is evidenced precisely by the need for civil insubordination or disobedience.
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Childs, Hank, David Pugmire, Sean Ahern, Brad Whitlock, Mark Howison, Gunther Weber i E. Bethel. "Visualization at Extreme Scale Concurrency". W High Performance Visualization. Chapman and Hall/CRC, 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.1201/b12985-17.
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"Visualization at Extreme Scale Concurrency". W High Performance Visualization, 329–44. Chapman and Hall/CRC, 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.1201/b12985-25.
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Friedline, Terri. "Corporate Landlords and the Climate Crisis". W Banking on a Revolution, 76–92. Oxford University Press, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780190944131.003.0005.
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This chapter explores the nexus of finance and climate change by examining the concurrent rise of extreme weather disasters and corporate landlords. Wealthy, white corporate investors use their financial resources to profit from extreme weather. In the wake of hurricanes and floods in Lumberton, North Carolina, corporate investors swooped in to buy single-family homes and rent them out for profit. These landlords have created precarious housing for Lumberton’s Black, Brown, and lower-income white families, who were more likely to be displaced by extreme weather and then were forced to put more of their comparatively lower incomes toward rent. Corporate landlords’ speculation on single-family rentals around the country capitalizes on the racialized displacement that will likely worsen with climate change.
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Maslin, Mark. "6. Climate surprises". W Climate Change: A Very Short Introduction, 98–113. Oxford University Press, 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/actrade/9780198719045.003.0006.
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The assumption of a linear relationship between greenhouse gases and climate change may be wrong. ‘Climate surprises’ examines the possibility that there are thresholds—or tipping points—in the climate system that may occur as we warm the planet. These include the possibility that Greenland and/or the Antarctic could start to irreversibly melt, raising sea level by metres; a change in North Atlantic driven deep-ocean circulation could produce extreme seasonal weather in Europe; dieback of the Amazon rainforest due to deforestation, with concurrent depletion in biodiversity; and, finally, a release of gas hydrates from deep beneath the oceans could occur if the oceans warm up sufficiently, again accelerating climate change.
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Basu, Debasish. "Terrorism and Other Forms of Violent Extremism". W The WASP Textbook on Social Psychiatry, redaktorzy Rama Rao Gogineni, Andres J. Pumariega, Roy A. Kallivayalil, Marianne Kastrup i Eugenio M. Rothe, 458—C35P155. Oxford University PressNew York, 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/med/9780197521359.003.0035.
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Abstract Of the various kinds of violence and conflicts, terrorism and other forms violent extremism (VE) occupy a special place. The Global Terrorism Database contains nearly 200,000 terrorist incidents for the period 1970 to 2019. VE impacts not only the individual but also the society, economy, and ecology. The progression to VE can be tortuous, multiphasic, and unpredictable, with two concurrent pathways of cognitive and behavioral radicalization. Drivers of VE and terrorism include the structural/sociological context operating at a macro level to provide the “push” toward VE, and individual/psychological variables (including mental health issues) operating at the micro level as “personal” factors influencing radicalization. Most importantly, however, social psychology and psychiatry are best equipped to capture the confluence of these two levels at the “meso” level, where the conducive society and the vulnerable person meet, shape, and influence each other to generate the crucial “pull” toward radicalization to VE. Given the importance of the concept of social identity, social context, and socially facilitated meaning-making in the pathway to VE, mental health and social psychiatry have a central role to play to understand the origin, spread, consequences, and possible mitigation of terrorism and VE. Social psychiatry and socially oriented mental health professionals may contribute to the area of VE in the following ways: catering to the needs of those affected by terrorism and other VE; countering stigma; theoretical understanding and research; clinical, risk, and psychosocial assessment; prevention/countering of VE; advocacy; multi-sector coordination; community-based working; and a public health perspective.
Streszczenia konferencji na temat "Concurrent Extremes"
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Yin, Chunxing, i Jason Riedy. "Concurrent Katz Centrality for Streaming Graphs". W 2019 IEEE High Performance Extreme Computing Conference (HPEC). IEEE, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/hpec.2019.8916572.
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Kuhn, Virginia, Alan Craig i Ritu Arora. "Multiple concurrent queries on demand". W the 1st Conference of the Extreme Science and Engineering Discovery Environment. New York, New York, USA: ACM Press, 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.1145/2335755.2335825.
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Ibrahim, Zakaria N. "Stress Indices Evaluation of Piping Ratchet Fatigue From Extreme Dynamic Loading". W ASME 2006 Pressure Vessels and Piping/ICPVT-11 Conference. ASMEDC, 2006. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/pvp2006-icpvt-11-93010.
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Piping systems are subjected to a wide range of anticipated and/or postulated dynamic loading. With the exception of steam propelled water slug flow transient, thee dynamic loading result in response reversals that have not the characteristics of sustained loading. Dynamic test to failure did not exhibit the classical collapse catastrophic failure mode. The dynamic response reversals exhibited gradual ratcheting and fatigue crack growth that concurrently lead to the failure. The stress intensity classifications provided by the piping stress indices, in conjunction with Edmunds and Beer or Bree Plate ratchet models, are utilized to estimate the accumulated ratchet strains in the pipe component. The allowed maximum accumulating local ratchet strain is set arbitrarily to 10%, which is less than half of the measured ratchet strains found in the dynamic tests. Simple criteria for evaluating the degradation level in the piping components subjected to the concurrent ratchet-fatigue failure mechanisms are presented. The approach utilizes a methodology similar to that used in the creep-fatigue interaction damage provided in the ASME Section III, Subsection NH, Appendix-T. Replacing the creep strain term by that of the ratchet strain, and replacing the bilinear damage function with the square root function, yields the ratchet-fatigue degradation criteria formulations presented in this paper. Considerations for the plastic buckling due to the accumulated compressive ratchet strains as well as the primary component of the piping thermal expansion stress due to elastic follow-up are also presented.
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Dakka, Jumana, Kristof Farkas-Pall, Matteo Turilli, David W. Wright, Peter V. Coveney i Shantenu Jha. "Concurrent and Adaptive Extreme Scale Binding Free Energy Calculations". W 2018 IEEE 14th International Conference on e-Science (e-Science). IEEE, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/escience.2018.00034.
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Diniz, Pedro C. "Atomic-delayed execution: A concurrent programming model for incomplete graph-based computations". W 2015 IEEE High Performance Extreme Computing Conference (HPEC). IEEE, 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/hpec.2015.7322468.
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Penczek, Frank, Wei Cheng, Clemens Grelck, Raimund Kirner, Bernd Scheuermann i Alex Shafarenko. "A Data-Flow Based Coordination Approach to Concurrent Software Engineering". W 2012 Data-Flow Execution Models for Extreme Scale Computing (DFM). IEEE, 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/dfm.2012.14.
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Kamei, Hiromu, Yuki Sato, Jin Mitsugi, Kiyoshi Egawa, Yuusuke Kawakita i Haruhisa Ichikawa. "Frequency Efficient Concurrent Data Streaming with Passive Backscatter Wireless Sensors". W 2018 6th IEEE International Conference on Wireless for Space and Extreme Environments (WiSEE). IEEE, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/wisee.2018.8637312.
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"Keynote 3: DLP Technology: Extreme Versatility". W 2010 23rd International Conference on VLSI Design: concurrently with the 9th International Conference on Embedded Systems Design (VLSID). IEEE, 2010. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/vlsi.design.2010.96.
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Gu, Xianglin, Yaoyao Zhang i Qianqian Yu. "Concurrent Probability of Earthquake and Hurricane". W IABSE Congress, New York, New York 2019: The Evolving Metropolis. Zurich, Switzerland: International Association for Bridge and Structural Engineering (IABSE), 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.2749/newyork.2019.2248.
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<p>Infrastructures are inevitably affected by multiple hazards during their service lives. Extreme loads, although occurring in a low frequency, may lead to catastrophic accidents and significant socioeconomic losses. Currently, research work on multi-hazards can be categorized into three groups: (1) joint hazards analysis, (2) physical vulnerability of a structure, and (3) damage analysis of a structure. However, the risk analysis of a structure is usually conducted to assume that the effect of multiple hazards on the structure is the superposition of effects caused by different kinds of hazards, and the interaction of hazards on structural effects is not considered. This paper proposed a theoretical evaluation method for concurrent probability of earthquake and hurricane, which is the basis for multi-hazard analysis of structures. The theoretical solution was validated to be reasonable by the numerical results from Monte Carlo method.</p>
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Kannapan, Srikanth M., i Dean L. Taylor. "Conflict Resolution in Concurrent Engineering Processes". W ASME 1994 Design Technical Conferences collocated with the ASME 1994 International Computers in Engineering Conference and Exhibition and the ASME 1994 8th Annual Database Symposium. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 1994. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/detc1994-0015.
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Abstract Naive interpretations of concurrent engineering may expect extreme parallelization of tasks and simultaneous accommodation of multiple perspectives. In fact, from our efforts at modeling tasks in a MEMS (Micro-Electro-Mechanical Systems) pressure sensor design project, it appears that data dependencies due to the structure of tasks and the product itself result in scenarios of decision and action that must be carefully coordinated. This paper refines a previously described information model for defining evolving contexts of product model aspects and team member perspectives, with software agents acting on behalf of team members to execute tasks. The pressure sensor design project is analyzed in the framework of the information model. A scenario of decision and action for design of the pressure sensor is modeled as a design process plan. Conflict on a shared parameter occurs as a consequence of introducing some parallelism between the capacitance and deflection agents in the process. We present a technique for negotiating such conflicts by definition and propagation of utility functions on decision parameters and axiomatic negotiation.
Raporty organizacyjne na temat "Concurrent Extremes"
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Resilient Southern Plains Agriculture and Forestry in a Changing Climate. USDA Southern Plains Climate Hub, lipiec 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.32747/2017.6957452.ch.
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Agricultural production in the U.S. Southern Great Plains is extensive and diverse. The region is home to
numerous cropping, livestock, and forestry systems, which serve as vital economic components for the Southern Plains states of Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas. These systems, while mature and resilient in many respects, are nonetheless at risk from the ongoing impacts of climate extremes as well as the projected impacts of future climate change. As scientists and extension professionals continue to refine their understanding of how climatic extremes and changes will affect agriculture in this region in the
future, there is a concurrent need to understand the critical elements and commonalities among production systems regarding those risks, as well as the information requirements and regional capacity needed to harden production systems, improve resiliency, and enhance profitability.