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Data publikacji: 4 czerwca 2021
Data aktualizacji: 6 lipca 2024

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1

Lechner, Julia. "Urban CGE Modeling: An Introduction". WU Vienna University of Economics and Business, 2011. http://epub.wu.ac.at/3247/1/sre%2Ddisc%2D2011_04.pdf.

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Cities are usually confronted with a large variety of economic development choices. With growing environmental concern as well as rising income and wealth inequalities, assessment of the impacts of such choices is likely to gain in importance. Consequently, the demand for adequate assessment tools will grow. Computable general equilibrium (CGE) models analyze issues of resource allocation and income distribution in market economies. They have become a widely accepted tool for policy assessment over the past two decades but are currently still primarily a field for specialists. This is particularly distinctive in the case of urban CGE models, which are the focus of this paper. (author's abstract)
Series: SRE - Discussion Papers
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2

Hubic, Amela. "A financial CGE model for Luxembourg". Doctoral thesis, Universite Libre de Bruxelles, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/2013/ULB-DIPOT:oai:dipot.ulb.ac.be:2013/209083.

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Luxembourg is one of the most successful financial centers in the world. Initially associated with international syndicated loans, euro-bonds and euro-currency markets, Luxembourg has developed as a center for private banking and is currently the second largest center for the domiciliation of investment funds in the world after the US - with a portfolio equivalent to about sixty times the country’s GDP -, and the first captive reinsurance market in the European Union. As in many other financial centers, the interbank market plays an important role. This partly reflects intra-group operations of foreign banks using their Luxembourg branches and subsidiaries to adjust their liquidity position. More generally, Luxembourg has attracted foreign banks seeking to benefit from its favorable regulatory framework, political stability, language skills of the local workforce and the agglomeration of specialized skills in accounting and legal services.

The importance of the financial sector in Luxembourg implies that a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model with explicit modeling of the financial sector is indispensable in order to properly take into account the interaction between the financial and the real sector in the economy and the interconnectedness between different financial institutional sectors (e.g. commercial banks and investment funds). Explicit modeling of the financial sector also allows for an analysis of how the economy might respond to financial shocks.

This dissertation contributes to the literature by developing two analytical tools:

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Doctorat en Sciences économiques et de gestion
info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

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Bohlin, Lars. "Taxation of intermediate goods : a CGE analysis". Doctoral thesis, Örebro universitet, Handelshögskolan vid Örebro universitet, 2010. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:oru:diva-11902.

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This dissertation is concerned with tax rates for the use of commodities in general, and energy in particular. Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models are used to analyze the normative question of whether the tax rate for intermediate use by firms should be the same as the tax rate for final consumption by households. To answer this question, a distinction needs to be made between fiscal taxes for the purpose of raising revenue for the government, and Pigovian taxes for the purpose of changing behaviour. Concerning fiscal taxes, firms should not pay taxes on their use of inputs if the tax rates in final consumption are at their optimal level. If the tax rate for households is above the optimal level, intermediate use in firms should be taxed in order to increase the price of other commodities and reduce the distortion of relative prices. Essay 1 ascertains what factors determine the optimal relation between the tax rate for final consumption by households and intermediate use by firms. Essay 2 analyses Swedish energy taxes from the perspective of reducing global emission of CO2. It is found that the welfare maximizing tax rates are equal for households and firms not participating in emission trading, while firms that participate in emission trading should have a zero tax rate. Essays 3 and 4 deal with methodological issues. Essay 3 derives a new method for estimation of symmetric input-output tables from supply and use tables. This method solves the problem of negative coefficients, makes it possible to use both the industry and commodity technology assumptions simultaneously and enables the commodity technology assumption to be used even when the number of commodities is larger than the number of industries. Essay 4 describes the model used in the first two essays. The price structure developed here makes it possible to take into account price differences between different purchasers other than differences in tax rates. This essay also makes a comparison between the Swedish implementation of this model and other Swedish CGE-models used to analyse climate policy and energy taxation.
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Oñate, Sofía. "Valoración de empresas CGE método de múltiplos". Tesis, Universidad de Chile, 2015. http://repositorio.uchile.cl/handle/2250/134543.

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Tesis para optar al grado de Magíster en Finanzas
Autor, no autoriza el acceso a texto completo de su documento
El siguiente proyecto de título conducente al grado de Magister de Finanzas, tiene por finalidad realizar la valoración económica y financiera de la empresa Compañía General de Electricidad S.A., CGE, a través del método de “valoración por múltiplos”. Inicialmente este trabajo describirá en forma breve las técnicas de este método y el de “flujo de caja descontado”. Posteriormente se realizará un análisis que va de lo general a lo más detallado iniciando con la descripción de la empresa y la industria, para luego estimar la estructura de capital de la empresa, costo patrimonial y el análisis operacional del negocio y la industria. En una segunda etapa y ya con la información base calculada se procederá a proyectar los EERR y flujos de caja libre con el objetivo de realizar la valoración económica de la empresa, determinando así el precio de acción. Posteriormente, se aplicará el método de valoración por múltiplos mediante la utilización de los principales ratios.
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Vaittinen, Risto. "Trade policies and integration evaluations with CGE-models /". Helsinki : Helsinki School of Economics, 2004. http://helecon3.hkkk.fi/pdf/diss/a235.pdf.

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Núñez, Díaz Pablo. "Valoración de empresa CGE S.A. mediante método de múltiplos". Tesis, Universidad de Chile, 2015. http://repositorio.uchile.cl/handle/2250/134539.

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Tesis para optar al grado de Magíster en Finanzas
El presente estudio se enfoca en la búsqueda del valor justo del Grupo CGE utilizando empresas comparables a través del método de valorización por múltiplos. A partir de este método se pretende cuantificar el valor de los activos operacionales de la compañía mediante el uso de ratios financieros de empresas reconocidas del sector energético a nivel mundial, así obtener un aproximado del valor de la empresa CGE como grupo se define como uno de los conglomerados energéticos más importantes del país, concentrando su actividad en el sector eléctrico y gasífero, desde Arica a Puerto Williams en Chile, en 5 importantes provincias en Argentina y en 26 departamentos en Colombia, a través de la distribución de gas licuado. A través de sus filiales, participa en los mercados de transmisión y distribución de energía eléctrica; de almacenamiento, transporte y distribución de gas; y en los servicios y productos asociados a todas esas actividades. En cuanto a los productos que maneja tanto en el sector eléctrico y gasífero son de baja diferenciación, el primero considerado prácticamente como un monopolio natural mientras que el sector gasífero presenta una alta competencia enfocada al costo y al servicio post venta dado el bajo nivel de diferenciación que prestan sus productos (GNL y GLP). En cuanto a la composición de los ingresos a Septiembre 2014 se componen de un 46% por sector eléctrico y 44% atribuibles al sector gasífero, el restante corresponde a prestación de servicios mayoritariamente relacionados al sector eléctrico. Se definieron las empresas comparables a través de una revisión de las empresas más importantes a nivel mundial en el sector energético para posteriormente definir los ratios a utilizar, escogiéndose los más significativos acorde a la naturaleza del negocio y a través de los comparables se obtiene un proxy del Valor Justo de la compañía. al 30 de Septiembre 2014.
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Pingel, Karl. "Valoración de empresas CGE : método de flujo de caja". Tesis, Universidad de Chile, 2015. http://repositorio.uchile.cl/handle/2250/134628.

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Tesis para optar al grado de Magíster en Finanzas
Autor no autoriza acceso a texto completo de su documento.
El siguiente proyecto de título conducente al grado de Magister de Finanzas, tiene por finalidad realizar la valoración económica y financiera de la empresa Compañía General de Electricidad S.A., CGE, a través de los métodos de “flujo de caja descontado” y “valoración por múltiplos”. Inicialmente este trabajo describirá en forma breve las técnicas de ambos métodos. Posteriormente se realizará un análisis que va de lo general a lo más detallado iniciando con la descripción de la empresa y la industria, para luego estimar la estructura de capital de la empresa, costo patrimonial y el análisis operacional del negocio y la industria. En una segunda etapa y ya con la información base calculada se procederá a proyectar los EERR y flujos de caja libre con el objetivo de realizar la valoración económica de la empresa, determinando así el precio de acción. Posteriormente, se aplicará el método de valoración por múltiplos mediante la utilización de los principales ratios
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8

Azdan, M. Donny. "Water policy reform in Jakarta, Indonesia : a CGE analysis /". The Ohio State University, 2001. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1373993667.

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Acharya, Sanjaya. "Pro-poor growth and liberalisation CGE policy modelling for Nepal /". Rotterdam : Rotterdam : Erasmus Universiteit ; Erasmus University [Host], 2006. http://hdl.handle.net/1765/8139.

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10

Punt, Cecilia. "Modelling multi-product industries in computable general equilibrium (CGE) models". Thesis, Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/79959.

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Thesis (PhD (Agric))--Stellenbosch University, 2013.
ENGLISH ABSTRACT: It is common practice in computable general equilibrium (CGE) models that the output composition of multi-product industries remains constant despite changes in relative prices of products. The results of any scenario will show that products produced by a single industry will still be produced in the same ratio to each other as reflected by the base data. The objective of the study was to develop a CGE model for South Africa in which this assumption of fixed composition of output can be selectively relaxed. In order to allow industries to adjust their output composition in response to changes in relative prices of products a Constant Elasticity of Transformation (CET) function and the related first order condition were incorporated into an existing CGE model. This alternative specification of an output transformation function in the model enables the modeller to allow selected multi-product industries to increase production of products that show greater price increases relative to other products. The first order condition of the CET function determines the optimal combination of products for each industry. With the inclusion of the CET function there is a trade-off between theoretical rigour of the model and realism of the results, therefore an assumption of input-output separability was introduced as a way of recognising that the inclusion of a CET function violates the assumption that prices in the same row of a social accounting matrix (SAM) are equivalent. The model was calibrated with a SAM for South Africa for 2007 that was developed for purposes of this study. Set controls were included in the model to generalise the model in order that it can be calibrated with data from other countries as well. The SAM for South Africa contains provincial level information in the accounts for agriculture, labour and households. The agricultural industries are defined by geographical area, hence these industries are particularly good examples of multi-product industries that respond to relative price changes when determining production levels of individual products. The adjusted CGE model was used to analyse four scenarios focusing on selected issues mentioned in the National Development Plan for South Africa released by the National Planning Commission in 2011. The scenarios relate to increases in fruit exports as a result of global positioning, technical efficiency improvements for the agricultural sector through continued research and development, factor productivity growth in government and selected services sectors resulting from fighting corruption and curbing strikes, and augmenting the supply of skilled labour through an improvement in the quality of education. The results of the adjusted model show the desired effect: producers produce relatively more of the products for which they can get a relatively higher price and vice versa. This holds true regardless of whether the level of industry output increases or decreases. The impact of the model adjustment and the effects of changes in the levels of elasticities and choice of variables to close the model were analysed as part of the sensitivity analyses. The impact of changes in the functional form, elasticities and model closures on results, are different for each scenario.
AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Dit is erkende praktyk in berekenbare algemene ewewigsmodelle dat die verhoudings waarin produkte tot mekaar geproduseer word deur multi-produk industrieë konstant gehou word, ongeag veranderings in relatiewe pryse van produkte. Die resultate van enige senario sal dus aandui dat die produkte wat deur 'n enkele industrie geproduseer word steeds in dieselfde verhouding tot mekaar geproduseer sal word, soos weerspieël in die basis data. Die doel van die studie was om 'n berekenbare algemene ewewigsmodel vir Suid-Afrika te ontwikkel wat die aanname dat die samestelling van elke industrie se uitset onveranderbaar is, selektief kan verslap. Om toe te laat dat industrieë die samestelling van uitset kan aanpas namate die relatiewe pryse van produkte verander, is 'n Konstante Elastisiteit van Transformasie funksie en die gepaardgaande eerste orde voorwaarde in 'n bestaande berekenbare algemene ewewigsmodel ingesluit. Die eerste orde voorwaarde bepaal die optimale verhoudings waarin produkte geproduseer moet word. Met die insluiting van die Konstante Elastisiteit van Transformasie funksie word teoretiese korrektheid van die model ingeboet in ruil vir meer realistiese resultate, dus is die aanname van inset-uitset onafhanklikheid gemaak en daardeur word ook erken dat as gevolg van die insluiting van die Konstante Elastisiteit van Transformasie funksie word daar nie meer voldoen aan die aanname data alle pryse in dieselfde ry van die sosiale rekeninge matriks (SRM) aan mekaar gelyk is nie. Die model is gekalibreer met 'n SRM vir Suid-Afrika vir 2007 wat vir doeleindes van die studie ontwikkel is. Deur die insluiting van kontroles vir versamelings is die model veralgemeen sodat die model ook met data van ander lande gekalibreer kan word. Die SRM vir Suid-Afrika se rekeninge vir landbou, arbeid en huishoudings bevat inligting op provinsiale vlak. Die landbou industrieë is volgens geografiese gebiede afgebaken en is dus besonder goeie voorbeelde van multi-produk industrieë wat reageer op relatiewe prys veranderings wanneer die produksievlakke van afsonderlike produkte bepaal word. Die aangepaste algemene ewewigsmodel is gebruik om vier senarios te ondersoek wat fokus op geselekteerde onderwerpe vervat in die Nasionale Ontwikkelingsplan wat deur die Nasionale Beplanningskommissie van Suid Afrika in 2011 vrygestel is. Die senarios hou verband met 'n styging in vrugte uitvoere as gevolg van globale posisionering, tegniese produktiwiteitsverhogings vir die landbousektor deur volgehoue navorsing en ontwikkeling, verhoging in die produktiwiteit van produksiefaktore van die regering en geselekteerde dienste sektore deur die aanspreek van korrupsie en vermindering in stakings, en die toename in geskoolde arbeid deur 'n verbetering in die kwaliteit van onderwys. Resultate van die aangepaste model toon die gewenste uitwerking: produsente produseer relatief meer van die produkte waarvoor hulle 'n relatiewe hoër prys kan kry, en omgekeerd. Dit geld ongeag of daar 'n verhoging of 'n verlaging in die vlak van die industrie se uitset is. Die impak van die modelaanpassing, die effek van veranderings in die vlakke van elastisiteite en die keuse van veranderlikes om die model te sluit, is geanaliseer as deel van die sensitiwiteitsanalises. Die impak van veranderings in die funksionele vorm, elastisiteite en modelsluiting op resultate, is verskillend vir elke senario.
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Bobadilla, Olivares Paulo. "Valoración de empresa CGE S.A. : mediante flujo de caja descontado". Tesis, Universidad de Chile, 2015. http://repositorio.uchile.cl/handle/2250/134544.

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Tesis para optar al grado de Magíster en Finanzas
Autor, no envía autorización para acceso a texto completo de su documento
El presente estudio se enfoca en la búsqueda del valor justo del Grupo CGE el método de flujos de caja descontados (FCD) A partir de este método se pretende cuantificar el valor de los activos operacionales de la compañía trayendo a valor presente los flujos que estos generan en un horizonte determinado de proyección para a través de ellos obtener un aproximado del valor de la empresa CGE como grupo se define como uno de los conglomerados energéticos más importantes del país, concentrando su actividad en el sector eléctrico y gasífero, desde Arica a Puerto Williams en Chile, en 5 importantes provincias en Argentina y en 26 departamentos en Colombia, a través de la distribución de gas licuado. A través de sus filiales, participa en los mercados de transmisión y distribución de energía eléctrica; de almacenamiento, transporte y distribución de gas; y en los servicios y productos asociados a todas esas actividades. En cuanto a los productos que maneja tanto en el sector eléctrico y gasífero son de baja diferenciación, el primero considerado prácticamente como un monopolio natural mientras que el sector gasífero presenta una alta competencia enfocada al costo y al servicio post venta dado el bajo nivel de diferenciación que prestan sus productos (GNL y GLP). En cuanto a la composición de los ingresos a Septiembre 2014 se componen de un 46% por sector eléctrico y 44% atribuibles al sector gasífero, el restante corresponde a prestación de servicios mayoritariamente relacionados al sector eléctrico. Una vez determinada la deuda financiera y el patrimonio económico de la empresa y para efectos de valorar la compañía, se supondrá como estructura de capital objetivo el promedio del ratio deuda a patrimonio entre los años 2010 y Septiembre del 2014 el cual es de 1.43 veces. Para la determinación del costo de capital se procede empleando instrumental tradicional. Posteriormente, se calcula el beta de la deuda, beta patrimonial con deuda y sin deuda empleando Rubinstein en los casos en que se requiere y ajustando a la estructura de capital objetivo. Respecto al crecimiento de la empresa e industria se han analizado tanto los crecimientos en términos monetarios reales así como el balance de unidades físicas, GWH para electricidad mientras que para GLP corresponden a Miles de Toneladas y a GNL a millones de m3. En relación a los costos operacionales, estos se mantienen en proporción a los ingresos por lo cual se definió una relación que se mantuvo en las proyecciones realizadas. Para finalizar y tomando como base el EERR Proyectado y efectuando los ajustes correspondientes, se llega a definir los flujos de caja libre que permitirán determinar el valor económico de la empresa y a partir de este el valor de la compañía. A su vez una vez definidos los comparables elegibles así como los ratios, significativos de acorde a la naturaleza del negocio, y los comparables se obtiene un proxy del Valor Justo de la compañía. A través de los dos métodos utilizados, se obtuvieron precios cercanos al del 30 de Septiembre 2014, a pesar de lo anterior, se concluye que existen limitantes a la valorización realizada.
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Lima, Cicero Zanetti de. "Impacts of low carbon agriculture in Brazil: a CGE application". Universidade Federal de Viçosa, 2017. http://www.locus.ufv.br/handle/123456789/19866.

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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de Minas Gerais
Além da relevância econômica, o setor agrícola fez com que o Brasil assumisse um papel ativo na discussão internacional das mudanças climáticas. O setor de agri- cultura, floresta e outros usos da terra (AFOLU) é a principal fonte de emissão de gases de efeito estufa no país, padrão peculiar entre os países em desenvolvimento. Durante a Conferência das Nações Unidas sobre as Mudanças Climáticas de 2009 (COP-15) o país assumiu o compromisso voluntário de reduzir suas emissões em 37 até 2025 e em 43% até 2030 em relação aos níveis de 2005. O setor agropecuario é responsável por contribuir com 22,5% do compromisso voluntario. Afim de atin- gir essa meta, foi criado em 2009 o Plano Setorial de Mitigação e de Adaptação as Mudanças Climáticas para a Consolidação de uma Economia de Baixa Emissão de Carbono na Agricultura (Plano ABC). O Plano ABC faz parte da Política Nacional de Mudanças Climáticas (PNMC). Entre as diversas ações do Plano ABC, estão a re- cuperação de 15 milhões de hectares (Mha) de pastagens degradadas e aumentar em 4 Mha as areas de integração lavoura-pecuaria (iLP) e / ou lavoura-pecuaria-floresta (iLPF). O objetivo da tese é avaliar os impactos econômicos e de mudança no uso da terra decorrentes dessas duas ações presentes no Plano ABC. Para tal, foi con- struído um modelo de equilíbrio geral computavel (EGC) (BREA versão 1.0) com representação detalhada de seis grandes regiões brasileiras divididas por relevância econômica e fronteira agrícola: Sul, Sudeste, Norte (bioma Amazônia), Centro-Oeste (sem o bioma Amazônia), Nordeste, e Nordeste Cerrado (Estados do Maranhão, To- cantins, Piauí e Bahia) que é considerada a nova fronteira agrícola brasileira. O modelo representa diversos usos da terra com desagregação setorial agropecuaria, e é o primeiro modelo de EGC a explicitamente representar a implementação das tecnologias do Plano ABC. Sob diferentes cenários simulados, os resultados indicam que a maior oferta de pastagens recuperadas e com alta produtividade, somadas as tecnologias iLP e iLPF, promovem o efeito poupador de terra como resultado agre- gado. Ha redução na pressão que a atividade de pecuária promove sobre as áreas naturais e florestas. Ao mesmo tempo, há queda das áreas destinadas às atividades de grãos, principalmente soja e milho, e aumento da area de florestas plantadas. Entretanto, os resultados regionais mostram que as regiões de fronteira agrícola respondem diferentemente as ações do Plano ABC. Nas regiões Centro-Oeste e Norte as pastagens crescem mais do que as areas recuperadas, sendo que parte das áreas de culturas são convertidas para pasto de boa qualidade. Nas regiões Sudeste e Sul essas pastagens aumentam menos do que a area de pastagens recuperadas, o que significa que parte das pastagens boas são convertidas em areas de culturas ou em florestas e áreas de vegetação secundária. Em termos macroeconômicos, percebe-se ganhos de bem-estar para as regiões brasileiras, com exceção das regiões do Nordeste e Nordeste Cerrado. Ademais, a variação do PIB regional indica queda expressiva nessas regiões. Esses resultados sugerem que o Plano ABC aumenta as disparidades regionais no Brasil evidenciando que o desenho de políticas públicas precisa levar em conta tais diferenças. A pesquisa sugere mecanismos modernos de compensação de perdas reestruturando as cadeias de valor regionais, para que no longo prazo aumente a capacidade de produção e absorção de tecnologias. Em termos de custo econômico, o modelo indica que para o atingimento das metas do Plano ABC refer- entes a recuperação de pastagens e sistemas integrados seriam necessários cerca de R$ 39 bilhões (valores nominais de 2009), valor inferior aos valores projetados no lançamento do Plano ABC (cerca de R$ 37 bilhões para recupeção de pastagens e R$ 57 bilhões para iLP e iLPF). O atual nível de adoção de recursos do Programa ABC é bem inferior ao montante necessario projetado no presente estudo. Até o fi- nal do ano safra 2015/2016 os desembolsos haviam alcançado quase R$ 13,8 bilhões, incluindo os gastos não apenas com recuperação de pastagens e iLPF, mas também com as demais linhas do programa, como o plantio direto e o tratamento de dejetos de animais. Essa constatação sugere que, a continuar o ritmo atual observado de adoção do crédito do Programa ABC, as metas do Plano ABC no ambito da Política Nacional de Mudança do Clima não serão atingidas.
Brazil is considered one of the major players in World agriculture. Besides the economic relevance of agriculture and livestock productions in Brazil, the country has an active role in the international discussion about climate change. The agricul- ture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU) sector is the main source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. It is a peculiar pattern among developing countries. At COP-15 2009, Brazil made a voluntary commitment to reduce emissions by 37% until 2025 and by 43% until 2030 compared to 2005 levels. The agricultural and livestock sectors are responsible to contribute With 22.5% of this total. The Brazil- ian Government released in the same year the Low Carbon Agriculture Plan (ABC Plan) as part of National Policy for Climate Change (PNMC) to achieve the GHG emissions reduction in the AFOLU sector. The ABC Plan has several actions, e.g., recover 15 million hectares (Mha) of degraded pasture, and increase by 4 Mha the integrated systems (crop-livestock integration and/or crop-livestock-forestry inte- gration). The objective of this thesis is to evaluate the economic impacts and the land-use changes resulting from these actions present in the ABC Plan, such as pasture recovery (PR) and integrated systems (IS). I have built a new computable general equilibrium model (CGE) (BREA version 1.0) With detailed representation of six regions in Brazil representing the economic relevance and agricultural frontier. The regions are: South, Southeast, North (Amazon biome), Center-West (Without Amazon biome), Northeast, and Northeast Cerrado (Maranhão, Tocantins, Piauí, and Bahia States) Which is considered the neW agricultural frontier in Brazil. The model represents several land uses, agricultural sectors, and it is the first CGE model to explicitly represent these technologies. Under different simulated scenarios, the outcomes indicate that the higher supply of recovered areas With high productivity pastures, combined With the integrated systems, promotes the land sparing effect. There is a reduction in the pressure to clear natural and forest areas made by live- stock sector. Also, there is a decrease in the cropland use and an increase in the area of planted forest. However, regional results show that regions in the agricultural frontier respond differently to the ABC Plan. In the Center-West and North regions the pasture area increases more than recovered areas. At the same time, the crop land area is converted to high quality pasture. In the South and Southeast regions the pasture area increases less than the recovered areas. It means that part of this area is converted in cropland, forest or secondary vegetation. At macroeconomic level, there are welfare gains in all regions, except in the Northeast and Northeast Cerrado regions. Also, regional GDP changes indicate significant losses in these regions. Modern compensation mechanisms should be develop to avoid these losses increasing the production capacity and the technology absorption in these regions. Considering the economic costs of PR and IS the model projects R$ 39 billion (2009 values). This value is significantly lower compared to those projected in the origi- nal text of the ABC Plan (around R$ 37 billion for PR and R$ 57 billion for IS). The actual adoption level of resources present in the ABC Program is also lower compared to the value projected by the model. By the end of 2015/2016 crop-year the volume of credit taken by farmers reached R$ 13.8 billion, including all actions present in the ABC Plan and not only PR and IS. It suggests that if the adoption of the ABC credit continue in a low rate the goals of the ABC Plan Will not be met.
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13

Touzot, Audrey. "Migration et spécification des interneurones GABAergiques corticaux issus de la CGE au cours du développement chez la souris". Thesis, Nice, 2014. http://www.theses.fr/2014NICE4089/document.

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Chez les rongeurs, les interneurones (INs) corticaux sont issus de l’éminence ganglionnaire (EG) médiale (MGE) et caudale (CGE), expriment une combinaison de facteurs définis et migrent tangentiellement puis radialement pour atteindre leur position laminaire définitive. La diversité et la spécification des sous-types d’INs provenant de la MGE ont suscité de nombreuses études, en revanche les mécanismes moléculaires contrôlant la migration et la spécification des INs issus de la CGE demeurent toujours obscurs. Dans cette étude, les voies de migration de ces INs ont été examinées grâce à une lignée de souris rapportrices des interneurones issus de la CGE avant d’analyser le rôle de deux facteurs de transcription, COUP-TFI et COUP-TFII, hautement exprimés dans la CGE. Deux voies de migration non précédemment caractérisées ont alors été identifiées : une voie dorsale (CLMS) où les INs migrent vers l’EG latérale (LGE) et une voie ventrale (CMMS) où les INs migrent vers la MGE. Le CLMS et le CMMS ont donc été analysés, ainsi que la voie de migration caudale (CMS), à différents stades de développement et l’expression spécifique de certains gènes a pu être identifiée. En inactivant conditionnellement COUP-TFI et/ou COUP-TFII dans les INs, les voies de migration sont altérées ainsi que l’expression des marqueurs moléculaires. Comme probable conséquence, les souris mutantes adultes montrent une distribution altérée des sous-populations d’INs en particulier de celles issues de la CGE. Mon étude a donc permis d’identifier et de caractériser deux nouvelles voies de migration pour les INs provenant de la CGE et a montré que COUP-TFs contribuent à leur modulation
In rodents, cortical interneurons (INs) originate from the medial (MGE) and caudal ganglionic eminence (CGE) according to precise temporal schedules, express a defined combination of factors, and reach their final laminar position through tangential and radial cell migration. The diversity and fate-specification of MGE-derived interneuron subtypes are well characterized however the molecular mechanisms controlling the migration and specification of CGE-derived INs are still vague. In this study, I have first investigated the migratory paths of cortical INs using a reporter line specific to the CGE, and then I have assessed the involvement of COUP-TFI and COUP-TFII, which are highly expressed in the embryonic CGE during development, in these paths. My data unravelled two major previously non-characterized migratory streams from the subpallium to the pallium: a dorsal stream (CLMS) in which CGE-derived cells migrate to the lateral GE (LGE), and a ventral one (CMMS) in which CGE-derived cells migrate to the MGE. I have characterized both streams and the already well-described caudal stream (CMS) during different stages of development and identified a series of genes expressed in the migrating cells. By inactivating COUP-TFI and/or COUP-TFII in the developing INs, these streams together with their molecular marker expression are perturbed. As a consequence, adult mutant mice have an altered distribution of interneuron subpopulations, particularly the ones derived from the CGE. Taken together, my study identified and characterized two novel CGE-derived interneuron migratory routes to the cortex and showed that COUP-TFs contribute in modulating these paths
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14

Johnsson, Richard. "Transport Tax Policy Simulations and Satellite Accounting within a CGE Framework". Doctoral thesis, Uppsala : Univ., Department of Economics, 2003. http://www.loc.gov/catdir/toc/fy043/2003504674.html.

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15

Keast, Sarah-Jane. "A bi-regional CGE model of the South West housing market". Thesis, University of Plymouth, 2010. http://hdl.handle.net/10026.1/2127.

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Volatility within the UK housing market is thought to be a significant factor driving instability in the wider macro economy. Research investigating the characteristics and behaviour of the housing market has suggested that under supply of housing is one of the key reasons for the high and increasing levels of house prices the nation has recently been experiencing. Consequently, much of the current government's housing policy is aimed at increasing the level of supply by reforming the planning system and increasing investment in the development of new housing. Under supply is also a major concern at the regional level, particularly in the South West, where net inward migration, growth in the number of single person households and growth in the numbers of second homes is placing increasing pressure on the housing market. Understanding the likely effects of any policy changes prior to their implementation is vitally important for a successful outcome and to that end economic analysis has played a significant role in the development of policy at the national level. However, this is not the case at the regional and sub-regional levels where only limited use of economic analysis techniques have been made, partly due to resource issues and partly due to the lack of regional data. In order to partially address the lack of analysis of the regional impacts of the latest housing policies, this study is based upon the development of a mathematical economic model of the South West housing market. This model is then used to estimate the likely impacts of increasing housing supply at both the regional and broad sub-regional levels.
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16

Sumaraharja, Salip Hasta. "EXTERNAL SHOCKS AND FISCAL ADJUSTMENTS IN INDNESIA : A CGE MODEL ANALYSIS". Kyoto University, 1999. http://hdl.handle.net/2433/181763.

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17

Furtenback, Örjan. "Fuel substitution in district heating plants : CGE modeling with a forest resource /". Umeå : Sveriges lantbruksuniv, 2009. http://epsilon.slu.se/11862745.pdf.

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18

Cirpici, Yasemin Asu. "Economy-wide Analysis Of Water Resource Management: A Cge Model For Turkey". Phd thesis, METU, 2008. http://etd.lib.metu.edu.tr/upload/3/12609404/index.pdf.

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Water-related issues are gaining importance at both national and global level. Water resources are becoming insufficient in meeting the rising needs. As resources are distributed unevenly throughout the world, supply and demand correspondence is difficult to meet. The analysis of water related issues should be addressed within a comprehensive framework. CGE models offer this possibility. This study aims to construct a CGE model for Turkey which includes water as a factor of production. It relates water issues with another troublesome debate that is important for Turkey: trade liberalization in agriculture. Turkey as a member of WTO and a candidate country for the EU has to consider the effects of a further liberalization in agriculture on its economy. In this study a trade liberalization scenario and a water-policy scenario have been discussed. Additional simulations are conducted in the case of a productivity increase in agriculture. Results show that, trade liberalization in agriculture leads to an increase in GDP and income levels, but had a negative impact on the trade balance in agricultural products. Applying a &ldquo
selective water tax&rdquo
will result in a decrease in production and consumption in water-intensive sectors, as well as in the private income. For the first simulation, productivity increase in agriculture leads to a further increase in both GDP level and incomes, and it compensates the trade distortions resulting from the tariff reduction. In water simulation, private income increases with productivity increase and depletion in production and consumption of agricultural products reversed. Moreover, the net exports in agriculture improve significantly.
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19

Rojas, Suazo Patricio. ""Propuesta de un sistema de control de gestión para CGE distribución S.A". Tesis, Universidad de Chile, 2014. http://www.repositorio.uchile.cl/handle/2250/117423.

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Tesis para optar al grado de Magíster en Control de Gestión
En Chile, la industria de energía eléctrica se subdivide en tres categorías, generación, transmisión y distribución. La generación corresponde a la producción de energía eléctrica desde sus fuentes primarias, conformada por centrales generadoras interconectadas al sistema eléctrico que operan en condiciones de libre competencia; la transmisión incluye sistemas de voltaje superiores a 23 kV (kilovolts), cobro de peajes por el servicio de transporte de energía, opera bajo condiciones de monopolio natural, por lo que se encuentra regulada por la autoridad; y la distribución, asociada al transporte de potencia y energía a niveles de voltaje inferiores a 23 kV, opera bajo condiciones de monopolio natural, debido a la ineficiencia de establecer dos o más sistemas de distribución en la misma zona de concesión, por lo que es una industria regulada en las condiciones de su explotación. En esta última categoría realiza sus actividades CGE Distribución. Para realizar sus actividades la empresa solicita concesiones a la autoridad, mediante las cuales se definen zonas geográficas en la que debe prestar sus servicios. La concesión determina tanto los derechos como obligaciones de la empresa distribuidora. El principal derecho es poder explotar en dicha zona la actividad de distribución de energía eléctrica. La principal obligación es entregar energía eléctrica a todas las personas o empresas que lo soliciten dentro del área de concesión. Las condiciones de su explotación están reguladas en términos de los precios a cobrar a clientes regulados y la calidad del servicio a prestar a los clientes. Las tarifas que son cobradas a éstos son establecidas por la autoridad cada cuatro años. Durante los años intermedios a dicho periodo existen fórmulas de indexación a las principales variables que determinan los precios de la electricidad. Por su parte, la calidad de servicio está regulada en términos de asegurar al cliente la entrega continua de suministro y calidad en el servicio comercial, asociada a una correcta facturación y atención al cliente en los distintos puntos de contacto (oficinas comerciales, centros de pago, call center, entre otros). Si las condiciones establecidas por la autoridad no son cumplidas las empresas de distribución son multadas e incluso se puede producir la pérdida de la concesión, por deficiencias significativas en la continuidad de suministro y/o gestión comercial. La industria de distribución se caracteriza además por que el crecimiento de la demanda eléctrica está correlacionado directamente con el crecimiento del producto interno bruto (PIB) del país, existiendo un crecimiento vertical y horizontal. El crecimiento vertical está asociado al aumento en el consumo por mayores ingresos de las personas y empresas, que implica mayor acceso y utilización de bienes que funcionan con energía eléctrica. El crecimiento horizontal se asocia al crecimiento geográfico tanto de viviendas como empresas. Las proyecciones de demanda eléctrica son positivas, las que van desde 40.000 GWH en el año 2014 a más de 90.000 GWH al año 2030. CGE Distribución mantiene concesiones desde el sur de la Región Metropolitana hasta la IX Región de La Araucanía, lo que la constituye en la empresa con mayor cobertura geográfica del país; posee más de 1.400.000 clientes, lo que representa el 24% del mercado nacional (segunda a nivel nacional); mantiene inversiones por más de MM$ 24.000 (año 2013) a través de la construcción de más de 5.000 proyectos anuales; y forma parte del Grupo CGE, uno de los grupos energéticos más importantes de Chile. En términos de sus debilidades, actualmente (año 2013) la empresa no presenta una buena calidad de servicio, ocupando la posición general n° 30 de un total de 34 empresas de distribución que operan en Chile, y si se considera el segmento de las principales ocho empresas de distribución (con más de 120.000 clientes) CGE Distribución mantiene el último lugar. En este escenario, surge la necesidad de contar con un sistema de control de gestión que permita comunicar e implementar la estrategia a todos los niveles de la organización, alineando el desempeño de los empleados con los objetivos de la empresa, lo que constituye el principal objetivo del presente trabajo.
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20

Mohora, Maria Christina. "RoMod: a dynamic CGE model for Romania a tool for policy analysis /". Rotterdam : Rotterdam : Erasmus Universiteit ; Erasmus University [Host], 2006. http://hdl.handle.net/1765/7455.

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21

Wang, Jiao. "The impact of WTO trade/investment liberalisation on China : a CGE analysis". Thesis, London South Bank University, 2005. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.434557.

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22

Adu, Abraham. "The role of financial sector reforms in Ghana : econometric and CGE analyses". Thesis, University of Hull, 2016. http://hydra.hull.ac.uk/resources/hull:14771.

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Kitwiwattanachai, Anyarath. "Quantitative impacts of alternative East Asia free trade areas : a CGE assessment". Thesis, University of Nottingham, 2008. http://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/10489/.

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The aim of this thesis is to make a comprehensive assessment and comparison of the quantitative economic impacts at both the domestic and the international level of four alternative FTA options in East Asia - ASEAN-China, ASEAN-Japan, ASEAN-Korea and East Asia - by using a static multi-region, multi-sector CGE model as a tool. With two main extensions to the "standard" CGE model in this study - the introduction of unemployment and the incorporation of highly disaggregated household data (Thailand is a case study) - the analysis is enhanced on the issues of labour markets and poverty and the income distribution. The model results show that trade liberalisation could alleviate real wage inequality in countries abundant in unskilled labour, i.e. China and ASEAN. In contrast, real wage inequality worsens in Japan and Korea, where skilled labour is relatively abundant. The unemployment feature incorporated in the model gives quantitative predictions of both lower unemployment and higher real wages. In general, under a regional agreement - East Asia FTA - member countries would enjoy higher economic welfare gains than under any of the bilateral agreements - ASEAN-China FTA, ASEAN-Japan FTA or ASEAN-Korea FTA. When focusing on poverty and income distribution effects in Thailand, the model results at the national level suggest that all the trade liberalisation options will alleviate the poverty problem in Thailand, but that the degree of poverty reduction will vary depending upon the implemented policy. The poverty in the poorest community (villages), and in the poorest region (the Northeast) improves the most from the East Asia FTA. On the other hand, trade liberalisation, under all options,does not have a major impact on income disparity in Thailand. Sensitivity tests indicate that these results are robust. However, such an "ideal" regional agreement might be deterred by the different strategies of other East Asia nations and by the uneasy relationship between China and Japan, reflecting their economic and political differences.
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24

COLOMBO, GIULIA. "Come legare modelli CGE a modelli di microsimulazione: questioni metodologiche ed applicate". Doctoral thesis, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, 2008. http://hdl.handle.net/10280/227.

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Questa tesi offre una descrizione dettagliata di come i modelli di equilibrio generale computazionale (CGE) ed i modelli di microsimulazione possano essere utilizzati congiuntamente, partendo dalla letteratura piú recente sull'argomento, e focalizzando l'attenzione in particolare sulla letteratura riguardante i paesi in via di sviluppo. La ragione principale per la quale questi modelli vengono utilizzati congiuntamente risiede nel fatto che il ricercatore vuole essere in grado di studiare contemporaneamente l'eterogeneità degli agenti economici e la complessità della distribuzione del reddito, ed allo stesso tempo di valutare gli effetti macroeconomici delle riforme. Nell'ultimo capitolo costruiamo un modello CGE-microsimulazione per l'economia del Nicaragua. Esso si rivela particolarmente adatto alla riforma di politica economica che vogliamo simulare: l'accordo di libero scambio commerciale tra i paesi dell'America Centrale e gli Stati Uniti è infatti una riforma di tipo macroeconomico, la quale potrebbe tuttavia avere effetti significativi sulla distribuzione del reddito. Con questo modello analizzeremo quindi gli effetti dell'accordo commerciale con gli Stati Uniti sulla distribuzione del reddito in Nicaragua. I risultati dell'analisi registrano soltanto piccole variazioni sia nelle principali variabili macroeconomiche che nella distribuzione del reddito e negli indici di povertà.
This thesis wants to give an assessment and a detailed description of how Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) and microsimulation models can be linked together, taking inspiration from the current literature, with a special focus concerning the literature on developing countries. The main reason why these models are linked together is that the modeller wants to be able to take into account full agents' heterogeneity and the complexity of income distribution, and at the same time to analyse the macroeconomic effects of the policy reforms. In the last chapter, we build a CGE-microsimulation model for the economy of Nicaragua. This model appears to be particularly suited to the policy reform we are willing to simulate with the model: the Free Trade Agreement of Central American countries with USA is mainly a macroeconomic reform, which on the other hand can have important effects on the distribution of income and on poverty. With such a model we will study the possible changes in the distribution of income in Nicaragua deriving from the Free Trade Agreement with USA. Our analysis finds only small changes both in the main macroeconomic variables and in the distribution of income and poverty indices.
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25

COLOMBO, GIULIA. "Come legare modelli CGE a modelli di microsimulazione: questioni metodologiche ed applicate". Doctoral thesis, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, 2008. http://hdl.handle.net/10280/227.

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Questa tesi offre una descrizione dettagliata di come i modelli di equilibrio generale computazionale (CGE) ed i modelli di microsimulazione possano essere utilizzati congiuntamente, partendo dalla letteratura piú recente sull'argomento, e focalizzando l'attenzione in particolare sulla letteratura riguardante i paesi in via di sviluppo. La ragione principale per la quale questi modelli vengono utilizzati congiuntamente risiede nel fatto che il ricercatore vuole essere in grado di studiare contemporaneamente l'eterogeneità degli agenti economici e la complessità della distribuzione del reddito, ed allo stesso tempo di valutare gli effetti macroeconomici delle riforme. Nell'ultimo capitolo costruiamo un modello CGE-microsimulazione per l'economia del Nicaragua. Esso si rivela particolarmente adatto alla riforma di politica economica che vogliamo simulare: l'accordo di libero scambio commerciale tra i paesi dell'America Centrale e gli Stati Uniti è infatti una riforma di tipo macroeconomico, la quale potrebbe tuttavia avere effetti significativi sulla distribuzione del reddito. Con questo modello analizzeremo quindi gli effetti dell'accordo commerciale con gli Stati Uniti sulla distribuzione del reddito in Nicaragua. I risultati dell'analisi registrano soltanto piccole variazioni sia nelle principali variabili macroeconomiche che nella distribuzione del reddito e negli indici di povertà.
This thesis wants to give an assessment and a detailed description of how Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) and microsimulation models can be linked together, taking inspiration from the current literature, with a special focus concerning the literature on developing countries. The main reason why these models are linked together is that the modeller wants to be able to take into account full agents' heterogeneity and the complexity of income distribution, and at the same time to analyse the macroeconomic effects of the policy reforms. In the last chapter, we build a CGE-microsimulation model for the economy of Nicaragua. This model appears to be particularly suited to the policy reform we are willing to simulate with the model: the Free Trade Agreement of Central American countries with USA is mainly a macroeconomic reform, which on the other hand can have important effects on the distribution of income and on poverty. With such a model we will study the possible changes in the distribution of income in Nicaragua deriving from the Free Trade Agreement with USA. Our analysis finds only small changes both in the main macroeconomic variables and in the distribution of income and poverty indices.
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26

Baas, Timo. "Unter welchen Bedingungen ist ein Beitritt zu einer Währungsunion optimal? : Eine Analyse stabilitätspolitischer Konsequenzen, statischer Effekte und wachstumstheoretischer Implikationen einer Osterweiterung der Europäischen Währungsunion". Phd thesis, Universität Potsdam, 2010. http://opus.kobv.de/ubp/volltexte/2010/4344/.

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Die Europäische Währungsunion (EWU) umfasst heute 16 Staaten mit insgesamt 321 Millionen Einwohnern, sie ist mit einem Bruttoinlandsprodukt von 22,9 Billionen Euro einer der größten Wirtschaftsräume der Erde. In den nächsten Jahren wird die EWU durch die Aufnahme der 2004 und 2007 beigetretenen neuen EU-Länder weiter wachsen. Da der Beitritt von der Erfüllung der Kriterien von Maastricht abhängt, erfolgt die Erweiterung im Gegensatz zur 5. Erweiterungsrunde der EU nicht als Block, sondern sequentiell. Nach den Beitritten von Slowenien am 1.1.2007 und der Slowakei zum 1.1.2009 steht der Beitritt eines ersten großen Landes in den nächsten Jahren bevor. Daher stößt die Frage der Effekte eines solchen Beitritts seit geraumer Zeit auf breites Interesse in der ökonomischen Literatur. Das Forschungsziel der Dissertation ist es, die theoretischen Wirkungsmechanismen eines Beitritts der neuen Mitgliedsländer zur Europäischen Währungsunion abzubilden. Hierzu werden mögliche stabilitätspolitische Konsequenzen sowie die Auswirkungen eines Beitritts auf die geografische Wirtschaftsstruktur und das Wachstum dieser Länder in theoretischen Modellen abgeleitet. Die direkten Effekte des Beitritts werden in einem angewandt-theoretischen Modell zudem quantifiziert. Insgesamt wird der Beitritt aus drei verschiedenen Perspektiven analysiert: Erstens werden die Konsequenzen der Währungsunion für die Stabilitätspolitik der neuen Mitgliedsländer im Rahmen eines neukeynesianischen Modells betrachtet. Zweitens werden die mit der Transaktionskostensenkung verbundenen Gewinne in einem angewandten Gleichgewichtsmodell quantifiziert. Drittens werden die wachstumstheoretischen Wirkungen der Finanzmarktintegration in einem dynamischen Gleichgewichtsmodell untersucht. Da die drei Aspekte der makroökonomischen Stabilität, der Transaktionskostensenkung und der dynamischen Wirkungen der Finanzmarktintegration weitgehend unabhängig voneinander auftreten, ist die Verwendung verschiedener Modelle mit geringen Kosten verbunden. In der Gesamtbeurteilung des EWU-Beitritts der neuen EU-Länder kommt diese Arbeit zu einer anderen Einschätzung als bisherige Studien. Die in Teil eins ermittelten stabilitätspolitischen Konsequenzen sind entweder neutral oder implizieren bei Beitritt zur Währungsunion eine größere Stabilität. Die in Teil zwei und drei ermittelten statischen und dynamischen Gewinne eines Beitritts sind zudem erheblich, so dass ein schneller Beitritt zur Währungsunion für die neuen EU-Mitgliedsländer vorteilhaft ist. Unter Berücksichtigung der Ziele der Europäischen Wirtschafts- und Währungsunion (EWWU) müssen hierzu jedoch zwei Bedingungen erfüllt sein. Einerseits sind hinreichend entwickelte Finanzmärkte notwendig, um das Ziel einer Konvergenz der neuen und alten EU-Mitgliedsländer zu erreichen. Andererseits wird der Gesamtraum von einer stärkeren Finanzmarktintegration und einer Senkung der Transaktionskosten profitieren, jedoch durch die Übertragung von Schocks der neuen Mitgliedsländer instabiler. Daher kann der Beitritt der neuen Mitgliedsländer zur EWU für den Gesamtraum negativ sein. Diese Kosten sind nur dann zu rechtfertigen, falls über die schnellere Entwicklung der neuen Mitgliedsstaaten eine höhere Stabilität des Währungsraumes erzielt wird. Das neukeynesianische Wachstumsmodell gibt Hinweise, dass eine solche Entwicklung eintreten könnte.
The European Monetary Union consists of 16 member states, is inhabited by 321 million people and has a joint GDP of 22.9 trillion Euros. It is one of the largest economic areas in the world. In the next years the Eurozone will growth further, eight remaining new EU member states will join after their fulfillment of the Maastricht criteria. This makes accession rather sequential, Slovenia joined in 2007, Slovakia in 2009 and Estonia is about to join the Eurozone in 2010. However, these rules open the opportunity for a new EU-member state to postpone membership of EMU in violating the Maastricht criteria like Sweden. The contribution of my Ph.D. thesis is to derive channels of the impact of an EMU accession on the macro-economy. To this aim, I analyze the effects of accession on stability, growth and the geographical structure within theoretical models. The static effects of accession are quantified within a computable equilibrium model. In the conclusions I answer the question whether there are economic reasons for a new member state to avoid EMU membership. The thesis is organized in three parts reflecting three perspectives of accession. Within the first main chapter, the effects of accession on stability are analyzed within a dynamic general equilibrium framework (DSGE). After a short discussion of the effects of monetary arrangements on the stability of an economy, I analyze the well-known arguments of the theory of optimum currency areas. Thereafter the model is used to analyze the transmission of shocks within the monetary union. The second main chapter of the thesis is related to static effects of accession. I show that in five new member states gains from accession outpace costs. Nevertheless, the gain from accession varies among accession countries and economic activities. Overall, small open economies tend to benefit to a greater extent than medium-size, more closed economies. In the third main chapter of the thesis a multiregional growth model is developed. In this model further integration leads to more efficient financial markets which foster growth. Nevertheless, like in all new economic geography (NEG) models, there could be the outcome of a catastrophic agglomeration. Capital could move from poor accession countries to rich western Eurozone countries. To prevent such a catastrophic agglomeration, financial markets should show a minimum degree of development. The conclusion of the thesis supports the accession of new member states to the Eurozone. I argue that the consequences of EMU accession will be either neutral or positive for the accession countries. Since these countries tend to be more instable, they could gain from an equalization of shocks within the Eurozone. The static effects outpace the costs of accession. Within the last years we saw huge progress in the integration of new EU-member states into the international financial system. A catastrophic agglomeration should therefore be unlikely. However, market capitalization remains low and bank lending is less profitable than in western EU-countries so that a risk remains which could justify a postponement of accession.
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27

Hasudungan, Herbert Wibert Victor. "The impact of implementing carbon tax and feed-in tariff : a CGE analysis of the Indonesian case". Thesis, University of Dundee, 2016. https://discovery.dundee.ac.uk/en/studentTheses/80c65877-1fca-460a-a58e-caabdc883683.

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This thesis focuses on the two main works that related in assessing the implications of (i) fiscal expansion (or contraction) and (ii) implementing a carbon tax on carbon-based fuels as well as the feed-in tariffs (subsidies to clean energy production) on Indonesia’s economy, within the context of static computable general equilibrium (CGE) analysis. In the first study, we investigate the impacts of increasing the public consumptions on Indonesia’s main macroeconomic indicators and to their consequences by examining how different institutions and sectors in the economy are affected. Three scenarios are carried out under different financing options to budgeting neutral the additional public spending. The results suggest that the increase of government expenditure on goods under the adjusted government saving generates the highest improvement on Indonesia’s GDP but results in a rise of budget deficit. In contrast, under the budget-neutral scheme of either reducing the subsidy rates across activities or increasing the output tax rates would result in less improvement to the Indonesia’s GDP. This is because a subsidy cut (or higher output tax) immediately escalates the production costs and, thus, increases the prices of final goods purchased by the households. These changes result in a fall of their real consumption that eventually leads to a drop in aggregate demand. However, compared to the scenario of subsidy cut, a higher output tax has the most adverse effects on national income. The industry’s production costs are more pressurized by a higher output tax. which in turn, creates deindustrialization, lower employment, and thus reduces the national income and output. In the second study, we investigate the two key frameworks to reduce Indonesia’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions: (i) implementing a carbon tax on fossil fuels; and (ii) promoting clean (renewable) energy production through the feed-in tariff (subsidy) scheme. In the carbon tax implementation, we assume that the government levies a tax of Rp. 100,000/ton CO2e with three possible revenue-recycling scenarios. In a first scenario, we allow the carbon tax to be recycled through adjustment of the labour (income) tax rate. In a second scenario, we allow the government to increase their spending on goods proportionally to compensate the revenue raised from a carbon tax. And finally, in the third scenario, we assume that the additional revenue from carbon tax is kept to run a budget surplus (government saving adjusts). Whilst, in the feed-in tariff (FIT) scenario, we assume that the government sets a 13.14% subsidy rate to renewable generations (hydro and geothermal generation) where the support payments are distributed equally among electricity consumers through a higher electricity tax rate. Overall, the results suggested that the carbon tax, in the short run, reduces the national emissions but raises costs to the economy, resulting a fall in GDP. In terms of income distribution, the carbon tax tends to be progressive in both (first and second) scenarios of revenue-recycling. However, when there is no compensating (recycling) mechanism (third scenario), the carbon tax tends to be regressive - the poorer households carry a higher share of the carbon tax burden. On the other hand, in case of the FIT scheme (15% subsidy to renewable generation), the impacts are negligible on national income and emissions. This is because the initial renewable shares in the electricity mix are small (a 11% share from hydro generation and a 5% share from geothermal generation); and these technology outputs are only utilized in the electricity industry. Therefore, we argue that the current Indonesia’s FIT regulation – about 13.14% subsidy rate for renewable generation technologies – is ineffective to reduce the national emissions.
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28

Bartsch, Ulrich. "Structural reforms and poverty : a CGE analysis of cotton policy options in Egypt". Thesis, University of Sussex, 1997. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.360549.

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Baker, Jonathan (Jonathan Early). "The impact of including water constraints on food production within a CGE framework". Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/68446.

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Thesis (S.M. in Technology and Policy)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division, Technology and Policy Program, 2011.
Cataloged from PDF version of thesis.
Includes bibliographical references (p. 73-76).
This research explores the long-term relationship between water resources, irrigated land use change and crop production within a computable general equilibrium modeling framework. The modeling approach is developed on a variant of the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model that describes three agriculture sectors-crops, livestock and managed forestry-five land types-cropland, pasture land, managed forest land, natural grass land and natural forest land-and conversion among these land types. I further develop this framework by describing crop production as the aggregate production of crops grown on irrigated and non-irrigated cropland. Water resources, through the parameterization of regional irrigable land supply curves, limit conversion to irrigated cropland and thus constrain regional crop production. Land use change, dynamics of irrigated land and regional water demand and crop production are investigated with the new model structure. Non-irrigated cropland is found be expanding faster than irrigated cropland. However, regionally, competition from biofuels for non-irrigated cropland may drive further expansion in irrigated cropland. Regarding water demand, most regions are withdrawing a very small share of their renewable water resource. Crop production levels are compared to results from a model that does not include water constraints. Global crop production declines a small amount with the most significant regional effect observed in the Middle East where regional water constraints have severely restricted the area by which irrigated cropland can expand. This result highlights the importance of considering water resource constraints in regions that experience, or might experience, shortages of water.
by Jonathan Early Baker.
S.M.in Technology and Policy
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30

Naumov, Alexander. "An analysis of Kazakhstan and its energy sector using SAM and CGE modeling". Thesis, Heriot-Watt University, 2009. http://hdl.handle.net/10399/2280.

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The primary focus of this thesis is the contribution of the oil and gas industry to Kazakhstan’s recent economic development. This industry is analyzed in a broader context with the help of the economy-wide modeling tools such as Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model, Social Accounting Matrices (SAM) and Input-Output models. Such approach allows taking into account all possible linkages the oil and gas industry has with the rest of the economy. The first chapter presents a literature review of CGE studies with an emphasis on applications to energy and transition economies. The thesis proceeds with a description of building a CGE model for Kazakhstan and construction of the SAM. Subsequently, using the above mentioned tools Chapter Four analyses a spillover impact of the oil and gas sector on the rest of the economy. The study establishes that the sector accounted directly and indirectly for about forty percent of economic growth between 2001 and 2005. The final chapter develops an analytical framework to correct representation of the oil and gas sector in the national accounts distorted by the transfer pricing. When adjusted for transfer pricing, the GDP share of the oil and gas sector in 2001 increases to 16.1 percent compared to the officially reported 8.6 percent.
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31

Rutten, Martine. "The economic impact of health care provision : a CGE assessment for the UK". Thesis, University of Nottingham, 2004. http://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/10318/.

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This thesis seeks to determine the macro-economic impacts of changes in health care provision, whilst recognising the simultaneous effects of consequent changes in health on effective labour supplies and the resource claims made by the health care sector. The resource allocation issues have been explored in theory, by developing an extension of the standard Rybczynski theorem from a low-dimension Heckscher-Ohlin framework, and empirically, by developing a Computable General Equilibrium model, calibrated to a purpose-built dataset for the UK. The theory predicts that, if the government is solely concerned with improving per capita income, a morally questionable policy of targeting health care provision towards skilled workers performs best. Furthermore, the impact of an expanding health sector on the outputs of non-health sectors is shown to depend on the sign and magnitude of a scale effect of increased effective labour supplies and a factor-bias effect of changes in the ratio of skilled to unskilled labour, although the latter effect dominates if effective labour supplies are relatively inelastic with respect to health care provision. The theoretical predictions are not generally validated by the applied model due to added real-life complexities. The main findings are that a rise in NHS expenditures, the employment of foreign health care-specific skilled workers, and costless factor-neutral and skill-biased technical change in the UK health sector have a positive impact upon overall welfare via direct improvements in population well-being and indirect benefits from increased worker incomes. The study indicates that if an expansion of the health sector is financed from a reduction in state benefits, the non-working households and pensioners may require some compensation since they rely relatively heavily on these as a source of income. The presence of health care-specific factors and rising pharmaceutical prices impact negatively upon the health sector and overall welfare, suggesting the importance of tackling rising input costs and structural rigidities. This may be achieved by the immigration policy, although since effects on domestic workers if their wages are not sustained, and on countries of origin faced by a 'brain-drain', are negative, in the long-term increasing the number of medical school places may be more desirable. Another suitable policy response is to purchase a more effective pharmaceutical product. Fairly small productivity gains in health care were shown to generate overall welfare gains. Finally, factor-neutral and skill-biased technical improvements yield significant welfare gains and cost-savings in the health sector. Such technical improvements may come in the form of improved medical procedures, which have been developed abroad yet are freely available or have been funded by charitable institutions, but also may reflect domestic policy which aims at reducing administrative overheads so that more resources can be devoted to front-line staff. The sensitivity of the results to the elasticity of the waiting lists with respect to health care indicates the importance of ensuring that additional resources are effectively employed, attainable by the technical and administrative improvements in health care.
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De, Wet Theunis Jacobus. "The Effect of a tax on coal in South Africa a CGE analysis /". Thesis, Pretoria : [s.n.], 2003. http://upetd.up.ac.za/thesis/available/etd-06302004-143319.

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33

Severini, Francesca. "Politiche fiscali e ambientali: analisi degli impatti sull'economia italiana con un modello CGE". Doctoral thesis, Università Politecnica delle Marche, 2009. http://hdl.handle.net/11566/242292.

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HOSSEINI, DELDOOST Seyed Mostafa. "IMPACTS OF CO2 TAX ON ITALIAN ECONOMY. A COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM APPROACH (CGE)". Doctoral thesis, Università degli studi di Ferrara, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/11392/2389100.

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35

Jakfar, Fajri. "Impacts of timber trade policies on industrial activities in Indonesia using a CGE model". Kyoto University, 2002. http://hdl.handle.net/2433/149912.

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Kyoto University (京都大学)
0048
新制・課程博士
博士(農学)
甲第9626号
農博第1254号
新制||農||843(附属図書館)
学位論文||H14||N3658(農学部図書室)
UT51-2002-G384
京都大学大学院農学研究科生物資源経済学専攻
(主査)教授 吉田 昌之, 教授 辻井 博, 教授 加賀 爪優
学位規則第4条第1項該当
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36

Villagrán, Miranda Felipe Miguel. "Valoración Compañia General de Electricidad (Grupo CGE) : mediante método de flujo de caja descontado". Tesis, Universidad de Chile, 2016. http://repositorio.uchile.cl/handle/2250/140261.

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Tesis para optar al grado de Magíster en Finanzas
El siguiente informe tiene como objetivo obtener una valorización económica tanto del grupo como una valorización por acción de la Compañía General de Electricidad al 30 de junio del 2015 a través del método de flujo de caja libre. Con el objetivo de efectuar la estimación del valor del grupo se analizó́ e investigó respecto a la descripción de la empresa, la industria en la cual opera y al financiamiento que presenta. Por otra parte, se determinó la estructura de capital y el costo patrimonial, además de considerar información relacionada a proyecciones de distintos analistas y políticas de inversión de la compañía para los próximos años, lo que permitió́ proyectar los Estados de Resultados desde Junio del 2015 a diciembre 2019. La metodología utilizada para la valoración económica del precio de la acción consistió en aplicar Flujos de Caja Descontados para los periodos Junio del año 2015 a diciembre del año 2019, a una tasa de costo de capital (WACC) estimada de 4,25%, proyectándose, además, un valor terminal de la empresa a partir del 2019, a través del método de “Valor de Perpetuidad sin Crecimiento”, que corresponde al valor de la compañía a partir del año siguiente de proyección (2020) sin considerar las oportunidades de crecimiento de la compañía1. Finalmente se llegó a un precio objetivo de la acción de $5.986, este precio de la acción obtenido se encuentra por sobre del precio observado por el mercado que es de $3.300, donde a lo largo del desarrollo de este proyecto y en base a los supuestos que serán descritos, se explicara en detalle cómo se obtuvo este precio y los supuestos del por qué el precio calculado es mayor al precio de mercado. La Compañía General de Electricidad es un grupo de aproximadamente 56 empresas que se dedican a la transmisión y distribución de electricidad (Siendo la segunda empresa más importante de electricidad a nivel nacional medida por número de clientes) además de la distribución de gas licuado y gas natural. Esta empresa es controlada actualmente por el grupo español la Caixa a través de Fenosa Chile. La compañía presenta operaciones en Argentina, Chile y Colombia, donde el grueso de sus ingresos corresponde por sus operaciones en Chile, principalmente del sector eléctrico e inversiones en el mercado del gas desde Arica a Punto Williams, siendo las empresas más representativas de este grupo METROGAS, GASCO, CONAFE, CGE Distribución, entre otras.
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37

Karadag, Metin. "The effects of VAT harmonisation with the EU on the Turkish economy : a CGE approach". Thesis, Loughborough University, 1997. https://dspace.lboro.ac.uk/2134/27828.

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Turkey has recently applied to become a member of the European Union (EU). The ultimate goal is full membership of the EU and with this application Turkey is obliged to undertake changes to the structure of the economy as a means of preparing for membership. Turkey's integration into the EU will result in the strict adoption of certain EU principles. In particular, all applicants are expected to adopt EU fiscal structures, for example the use of VAT as the main turnover tax. With regard to this, Turkey introduced VAT in 1985 even before her membership and followed the developments in the EU as far as VAT harmonisation is concerned.
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38

Naranpanawa, Athula Kithsiri Bandara, i n/a. "Trade Liberalisation and Poverty in a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Model: The Sri Lankan Case". Griffith University. Griffith Business School, 2005. http://www4.gu.edu.au:8080/adt-root/public/adt-QGU20070130.165943.

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Many trade and development economists, policy makers and policy analysts around the world believe that globalisation promotes growth and reduces poverty. There exists a large body of theoretical and empirical literature on how trade liberalisation helps to promote growth and reduce poverty. However, critics of globalisation argue that, in developing countries, integration into the world economy makes the poor poorer and the rich richer. The most common criticism of globalisation is that it increases poverty and inequality. Much of the research related to the link between openness, growth and poverty has been based on cross-country regressions. Dollar and Kraay (2000; 2001), using regression analysis, argue that growth is pro poor. Moreover, their study suggests that growth does not affect distribution and poor as well as rich could benefit from it. Later, they demonstrate that openness to international trade stimulates rapid growth, thus linking trade liberalisation with improvements in wellbeing of the poor. Several other cross-country studies demonstrate a positive relationship between trade openness and economic growth (see for example Dollar, 1992; Sach and Warner, 1995 and Edward, 1998). In contrast, Rodriguez and Rodrik (2001) question the measurements related to trade openness in economic models, and suggest that generalisations cannot be made regarding the relationship between trade openness and growth. Several other studies also criticise the pro poor growth argument based upon the claim of weak econometrics and place more focus on the distributional aspect (see, for example, Rodrik, 2000). Ultimately, openness and growth have therefore become an empirical matter, and so has the relationship between trade and poverty. These weaknesses of cross-country studies have led to a need to provide evidence from case studies. Systematic case studies related to individual countries will at least complement cross-country studies such as that of Dollar and Kraay. As Chen and Ravallion (2004, p.30) argue, 'aggregate inequality or poverty may not change with trade reform even though there are gainers and losers at all levels of living'. They further argue that policy analysis which simply averages across diversities may miss important matters that are critical to the policy debate. In this study, Sri Lanka is used as a case study and a computable general equilibrium (CGE) approach is adopted as an analytical framework. Sri Lanka was selected as an interesting case in point to investigate this linkage for the following reasons: although Sri Lanka was the first country in the South Asian region to liberalise its trade substantially in the late seventies, it still experiences an incidence of poverty of a sizeable proportion that cannot be totally attributed to the long-standing civil conflict. Moreover, trade poverty linkage within the Sri Lankan context has hardly received any attention, while multi-sectoral general equilibrium poverty analysis within the Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) based CGE model has never been attempted. In order to examine the link between globalisation and poverty, a poverty focussed CGE model for the Sri Lankan economy has been developed in this study. As a requirement for the development of such a model, a SAM of the Sri Lankan economy for the year 1995 has been constructed. Moreover, in order to estimate the intra group income distribution in addition to the inter group income distribution, income distribution functional forms for different household groups have been empirically estimated and linked to the CGE model in 'top down' mode: this will compute a wide range of household level poverty and inequality measurements. This is a significant departure from the traditional representative agent hypothesis used to specifying household income distributions. Furthermore, as the general equilibrium framework permits endogenised prices, an attempt was made to endogenise the change in money metric poverty line within the CGE model. Finally, a set of simulation experiments was conducted to identify the impacts of trade liberalisation in manufacturing and agricultural industries on absolute and relative poverty at household level. The results show that, in the short run, trade liberalisation of manufacturing industries increases economic growth and reduces absolute poverty in low-income household groups. However, it is observed that the potential benefits accruing to the rural low-income group are relatively low compared to other two low-income groups. Reduction in the flow of government transfers to households following the loss of tariff revenue may be blamed for this trend. In contrast, long run results indicate that trade liberalisation reduces absolute poverty in substantial proportion in all groups. It further reveals that, in the long run, liberalisation of the manufacturing industries is more pro poor than that of the agricultural industries. Overall simulation results suggest that trade reforms may widen the income gap between the rich and the poor, thus promoting relative poverty. This may warrant active interventions with respect to poverty alleviation activities following trade policy reforms.
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39

Wu, Yinghong. "Economic impacts of different skilled levels of immigration labour : a CGE assessment for the UK". Thesis, Middlesex University, 2011. http://eprints.mdx.ac.uk/12380/.

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The aim of this thesis is to make a comprehensive assessment of economic impacts of different skilled level of international immigration labour on the UK by using a multiregion, multi-sector CGE-ILA model as a tool, with four main extensions from the IFPRI standard CGE framework, namely, the four-level nested CES production functions, highly disaggregated household data, two foreign regions and the assumption of imperfect labour market. The model is calibrated to a purpose-built 41x41 SAM dataset for the UK 2004. By employing four sets of criterions, the analysis combines four skill-type of immigration labour to look at their impacts on the UK economy from six aspects: economic growth, international trade, wage and unemployment, incomes of institutions, employment in sectors, production prices and scale of production. The main findings are: 1) The inflow of higher-skilled labour can make significant contribution to UK economy and alleviate wage inequality; although lower-skilled immigration labour also has the positive effects on UK economy, they can worsen the wage inequality. 2) Only increase of small proportion (<8%) of highly-skilled immigration labour will reduce total unemployment. 3) Increase of immigration labour has positive effects on the incomes of all institutions, of which enterprises and government gain the larger benefit than households do. The higher the skill of immigration labour has, the larger the contribution they will make. 4) The unskilled immigration labour has the larger positive effects on UK economy than the semi-skilled has, and has the positive impacts on reducing the activity prices of the some sectors in the Primary and Secondary Industry, and then encourages more exports than imports. 5) The semi-skilled immigration labour is the least needed in the UK labour market, if the reduction of unemployment is the prior consideration. Thus, the policy implication of the current study is that the highly-skilled immigration labour is urgently and largely needed by the UK economy; the recommended scale of immigration labour is a mix with a large proportion of higher-skilled labour force and a small proportion of the lower-skilled.
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40

Ferrarini, Angel dos Santos Fachinelli. "Avaliação setorial do uso da água no Brasil: uma análise de equilíbrio geral computável (CGE)". Universidade de São Paulo, 2017. http://www.teses.usp.br/teses/disponiveis/11/11132/tde-14032018-123416/.

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Esta tese teve por objetivo verificar como expansões de área irrigada no país aumentariam o uso de água regional. Para isso, os cenários descritos no Plano Nacional de Recursos Hídricos (PNRH) foram utilizados como política de expansão para a irrigação no país. Os cenários descritos são cenário 1 (água para todos), cenário 2 (água para alguns) e cenário 3 (água para poucos), e são situações hipotéticas reportadas pelo plano. Estes cenários foram adaptados com as informações de áreas potencialmente irrigáveis descritas no estudo do Ministério da Integração Nacional (MI) sobre a Análise Territorial para o Desenvolvimento da Agricultura Irrigada. Para tal, utilizou-se um modelo computável de equilíbrio geral denominado TERM-BR, um modelo dinâmico, bottom-up, inter-regional para as simulações dos cenários de demanda futura para o uso da água. O método de Thornthwaite e Mather foi utilizado para estimar o balanço hídrico climatológico (CWB) para os estados do Nordeste e com isso avaliar a situação da disponibilidade hídrica em condições determinadas nessa região. Diversos trabalhos foram utilizados na elaboração da base de dados com informações municipais (agricultura e consumo humano) e informações estaduais (pecuária e indústria), produtividade das culturas, áreas plantadas e colhidas também foram utilizadas. Os resultados simulados sugerem que as expansões de área irrigada proporcionariam mudanças positivas nas variáveis macroeconômicos como consumo das famílias, investimento, gastos do governo, exportações, PIB para o país. Em relação as variáveis macroeconômicas regionais, o estado do Mato Grosso se destacaria em todos os cenários e apresentaria uma mudança no PIB e investimento maior no cenário 1. Expansões de área irrigada na região Centro-Oeste e Norte são viáveis em todos os cenários, especialmente nos estados do Mato Grosso, Goiás, Tocantins, Pará e Minas Gerais na região Sudeste. A maior mudança percentual no uso da água ocorreria na soja e no algodão e o maior volume de uso de água (milhões de metros cúbicos) ocorreria na cultura da cana de açúcar e no arroz. Os resultados da interação entre o modelo TERM-BR e o método de CWB para os estados do Nordeste indicam que os estados de Alagoas e Pernambuco seriam os mais propensos a ter problemas com a disponibilidade hídrica. O aumento no uso de água por região hidrográfica é condizente com o proposto no PNRH e esse aumento deveria ser maior nas regiões hidrográficas do Tocantins-Araguaia (Tocantins, Pará, Mato Grosso e Goiás) e no Atlântico Nordeste Ocidental nos estados do Maranhão e Pará.
This dissertation aimed to verify how expansions of irrigated area in the country would increase the regional water use. For this, the scenarios described in the National Water Resources Plan (PNRH in Portuguese) were used as policy for expansion of irrigation in the country. The scenarios related are scenario 1 (water for all), scenario 2 (water for some) and scenario 3 (water for few), and are hypothetical situations reported by the plan. These scenarios were adapted with the information about irrigable areas described by Ministry of National Integration (MI) on the Territorial Analysis for the Development of Irrigated Agriculture. A computable general equilibrium model namely TERM-BR was used in the simulation, this is dynamic, bottom-up, interregional model for simulations of scenarios for water. The Thornthwaite and Mather method was employed to estimate the Climatic Water Balance (CWB) for Northeastern states and to assess the water availability situation under specific conditions in that region. Several studies were compiled to elaborate the database; some with municipal information (agriculture and human consumption) and others with state information (livestock and industry). Crop productivity, and planted and harvested areas were also used. The results suggest that the expansions in the national irrigated areas would provide positive changes in macroeconomic variables such as household consumption, investment, government spending, exports, and national GDP. Mato Grosso state would stand out in all the scenarios regarding regional macroeconomic variables, and change in regional GDP and investment would be greater in scenario 1. Expansions in the Center-West and North regions are feasible in all scenarios, especially in Mato Grosso, Goiás, Tocantins, Pará and Minas Gerais state. The highest percentage change in water use would occur in soybeans and cotton crops and the largest volume of water use (millions of cubic meters) would occur in sugar cane and rice crop. The results for the interaction between the TERM-BR model and CWB method for the Northeastern states indicate that, Alagoas and Pernambuco state would be the most likely to have problems with water availability. The increase in water use by hydrographic region is consistent with that proposed in the PNRH, and this increase should be higher in the Tocantins-Araguaia hydrographic regions (Tocantins, Pará, Mato Grosso and Goiás) and in the Western Northeast Atlantic in Maranhão and Pará state.
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41

Kyalimpa, Francis Drake. "Prospects for economic growth and poverty reduction in Uganda : a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) analysis". Thesis, University of Dundee, 2014. https://discovery.dundee.ac.uk/en/studentTheses/bffe7268-93dc-434c-a138-07af2843a51f.

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Uganda faces considerable challenges in revamping economic growth performance, reducing the proportional of people living below the poverty line to below 20 percent, and attaining other Millennium Development Goals by the year 2015. These developments have prompted the government to prioritise poverty alleviation and the attainment of sustainable real GDP growth (i.e. at 7 percent per annum), among other policies. This dissertation argues that a proper identification of the critical sectors of growth with significant linkages to the rest of the economy can guide policy makers to affect the outcomes of external shocks (e.g. by redirecting resources to sectors with potential for higher output growth and welfare effects) .Using the 2002 Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for Uganda, we investigate the properties of the multipliers that can be calculated from the SAM, in particular contrasting them with the simpler input-output multipliers. Using the SAM multipliers, the computed linkages suggest that Agriculture, Food Processing, and Other Services (Trade, and Health and Education) are the key sectors of Uganda’s economy. Similarly, Manufacturing, Construction, and Transport were found to be sectors with weak linkages to the rest of the economy. Moreover, the multiplier impact on output, employment, and household income distribution is higher with in agriculture relative to other sectors. Our multiplier results confirm the need for policy makers in Uganda to target agriculture-led growth if Uganda is to substantially raise economy wide growth, and to improve household incomes for significant poverty alleviation. Policies to boost the agriculture sector include: building and maintaining feeder roads, provision of farm inputs, training farmers on better methods of production and productivity, reviving cooperatives (i.e. to enable coordinated farming activities, storage, processing, and marketing of farmers produce, and easy access to credit from lending institutions). It should be noted that Agriculture in Uganda is characterised by low productivity resulting from the use of poor inputs, undeveloped value chains, and low public and private investment in the sector. Government should significantly invest in agro-processing industries to increase value addition and exports for higher incomes. Since such investments are costly, requiring significant capital investments which majority of poor farmers cannot afford, the government should promote public-private sector partnership. It should be noted that Uganda’s exports are dominated by unprocessed primary low products which fetch low earnings from world markets. Using a country specific CGE model and selected exogenous changes and policies, our findings suggest that an increase in the world price of exports and workers remittances, and a decrease in import tariffs are growth and welfare enhancing with the positive shock to world export prices producing the largest impact on real GDP, employment (largely, low skilled labour and in agriculture), factor and household incomes. The significant role of migrant remittances in growth and poverty alleviation (i.e. by increasing household incomes, and investment in agriculture, education, and real estate among others) is worth noting. These findings suggest that Ugandan authorities could encourage Ugandans living and working abroad to invest at home by introducing a diaspora bond and sharing information on investment opportunities to encourage increased inflow of workers remittances which would boost domestic investment. Where possible, surplus labour could be exported to other regions or countries and arrangements made to have workers remittances invested in Uganda. In all the policy experiments performed, we find that the welfare of households in the northern and eastern regions of the country is lower compared to that of households based in other regions. This suggests that the government needs to design and implement specific poverty alleviation programs in these regions. The relatively high poverty in northern and eastern regions is attributed to the 19 year civil conflict and the communal land ownership which limits agriculture production for food security and improved household incomes. The government could increase the provision of social and physical infrastructure and promote sustainable agriculture by opening up irrigation schemes, supplying farmers with drought resistant crops, restocking farms, and building and maintain valley dams, and implementing land reforms which promote agriculture. Given the importance of agriculture to Uganda’s growth and poverty alleviation prospects, we argue that the government should implement the recommendations of the Comprehensive African Agriculture Development Program (CAADP) and the Maputo Declaration which calls for the allocation of 10 percent of the national budget to agriculture. This allocation is necessary to achieve the target of agriculture sector growth by 6 percent which is required to reduce significantly the number of Ugandans living in extreme poverty and hunger. The budgetary allocation of 4 percent coupled with inadequate supervision, and corruption and misallocation of funds meant for agriculture development programs have contributed to persistent decline in in output and increase in rural and urban poverty. Our results suggest agriculture is associated with higher employment of low skilled labour which is the largest labour force in Uganda. According to the World Bank, employment is the surest way to poverty alleviation. Thus, Uganda should pursue an agriculture led growth strategy for poverty alleviation and sustained economic growth. However, to substantially increase household incomes and contribute to poverty alleviation, policy interventions in agriculture should focus on increasing value addition through food processing and exports. Further, interventions that empower women to own assets should be enforced by government. Women are the principal users of land, and they must have stronger rights over the resources they depend upon. Our simulations have demonstrated that employment and incomes of women increase from interventions that target the agriculture sector in Uganda. Women constitute over 90 percent of the total labour force employed in agriculture and earn less or none of farm incomes, and most of them operate under chronic poverty. To gain greater knowledge of and control over their environment and build more productive sustainable systems, the government could empower women with basic education and training, increase their access to new technologies and mobilise them to participate in rural saving banks and cooperatives to boost their earnings from agriculture. Our results suggest that Services (mainly education and health) are potential candidates for growth and poverty alleviation in Uganda because they generate significant employment. However, Uganda, Services employ high skilled labour and are urban based, implying they cannot absorb the dominant low skilled labour and the youth. According to the Uganda Bureau of Statistics, Uganda currently has about 34.5 million people of which about 65 percent are youth. About 83 percent of these youth (aged 18-30 years) have no formal employment. This calls for authorities in Uganda to reorient the current curriculum towards her development needs where the youth and graduates are trained to be job creators and not job seekers. Massive investment in vocation training where the youth are trained and equipped with skills to manage their own lives by engaging in small scale projects should be prioritised by the government. To overcome the high rate of youth and graduate unemployment in developing countries Uganda inclusive, the donor community in collaboration with African governments identified vocational training as a critical component in each country’s poverty reduction strategy.
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42

Naranpanawa, Athula. "Trade Liberalisation and Poverty in a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Model: The Sri Lankan Case". Thesis, Griffith University, 2005. http://hdl.handle.net/10072/366815.

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Many trade and development economists, policy makers and policy analysts around the world believe that globalisation promotes growth and reduces poverty. There exists a large body of theoretical and empirical literature on how trade liberalisation helps to promote growth and reduce poverty. However, critics of globalisation argue that, in developing countries, integration into the world economy makes the poor poorer and the rich richer. The most common criticism of globalisation is that it increases poverty and inequality. Much of the research related to the link between openness, growth and poverty has been based on cross-country regressions. Dollar and Kraay (2000; 2001), using regression analysis, argue that growth is pro poor. Moreover, their study suggests that growth does not affect distribution and poor as well as rich could benefit from it. Later, they demonstrate that openness to international trade stimulates rapid growth, thus linking trade liberalisation with improvements in wellbeing of the poor. Several other cross-country studies demonstrate a positive relationship between trade openness and economic growth (see for example Dollar, 1992; Sach and Warner, 1995 and Edward, 1998). In contrast, Rodriguez and Rodrik (2001) question the measurements related to trade openness in economic models, and suggest that generalisations cannot be made regarding the relationship between trade openness and growth. Several other studies also criticise the pro poor growth argument based upon the claim of weak econometrics and place more focus on the distributional aspect (see, for example, Rodrik, 2000). Ultimately, openness and growth have therefore become an empirical matter, and so has the relationship between trade and poverty. These weaknesses of cross-country studies have led to a need to provide evidence from case studies. Systematic case studies related to individual countries will at least complement cross-country studies such as that of Dollar and Kraay. As Chen and Ravallion (2004, p.30) argue, 'aggregate inequality or poverty may not change with trade reform even though there are gainers and losers at all levels of living'. They further argue that policy analysis which simply averages across diversities may miss important matters that are critical to the policy debate. In this study, Sri Lanka is used as a case study and a computable general equilibrium (CGE) approach is adopted as an analytical framework. Sri Lanka was selected as an interesting case in point to investigate this linkage for the following reasons: although Sri Lanka was the first country in the South Asian region to liberalise its trade substantially in the late seventies, it still experiences an incidence of poverty of a sizeable proportion that cannot be totally attributed to the long-standing civil conflict. Moreover, trade poverty linkage within the Sri Lankan context has hardly received any attention, while multi-sectoral general equilibrium poverty analysis within the Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) based CGE model has never been attempted. In order to examine the link between globalisation and poverty, a poverty focussed CGE model for the Sri Lankan economy has been developed in this study. As a requirement for the development of such a model, a SAM of the Sri Lankan economy for the year 1995 has been constructed. Moreover, in order to estimate the intra group income distribution in addition to the inter group income distribution, income distribution functional forms for different household groups have been empirically estimated and linked to the CGE model in 'top down' mode: this will compute a wide range of household level poverty and inequality measurements. This is a significant departure from the traditional representative agent hypothesis used to specifying household income distributions. Furthermore, as the general equilibrium framework permits endogenised prices, an attempt was made to endogenise the change in money metric poverty line within the CGE model. Finally, a set of simulation experiments was conducted to identify the impacts of trade liberalisation in manufacturing and agricultural industries on absolute and relative poverty at household level. The results show that, in the short run, trade liberalisation of manufacturing industries increases economic growth and reduces absolute poverty in low-income household groups. However, it is observed that the potential benefits accruing to the rural low-income group are relatively low compared to other two low-income groups. Reduction in the flow of government transfers to households following the loss of tariff revenue may be blamed for this trend. In contrast, long run results indicate that trade liberalisation reduces absolute poverty in substantial proportion in all groups. It further reveals that, in the long run, liberalisation of the manufacturing industries is more pro poor than that of the agricultural industries. Overall simulation results suggest that trade reforms may widen the income gap between the rich and the poor, thus promoting relative poverty. This may warrant active interventions with respect to poverty alleviation activities following trade policy reforms.
Thesis (PhD Doctorate)
Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)
Griffith Business School
Griffith Business School
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43

Bussolo, Maurizio. "A Mediterranean region FTA : some economic and environmental effects studied within a dynamic CGE framework". Thesis, University of Warwick, 1997. http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/109738/.

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Peeni, Bridget Ann. "Microfabrication and Evaluation of Planar Thin-Film Microfluidic Devices". BYU ScholarsArchive, 2006. https://scholarsarchive.byu.edu/etd/797.

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Over the past 15 years, research in the field of microfluidics has rapidly gained popularity. By seeking to miniaturize and automate separation-based analysis, microfluidic research seeks to improve current methods through decreased cost, analysis time, and sources of contamination. My work has focused on developing a novel fabrication method, based on standard microfabrication techniques, to create thin-film microfluidic devices. This microfabrication format makes it possible to generate devices that provide high efficiencies, enable mass fabrication, and provide a platform capable of integrating the microfluidic and electronic components necessary for a micro-total analysis system (μ-TAS). Device fabrication combines the processes of photolithography, thermal evaporation, plasma enhanced chemical vapor deposition (PECVD), and wet chemical etching to ultimately provide hollow-core channels. When these microcapillaries are filled with buffer and potentials are applied across them, control of the flow in the channels can be established. By designing intersecting microchannels having an offset “T†geometry, I have been able to inject and electrophoretically separate three fluorescently labeled amino acids and obtain efficiencies of over 2500 theoretical plates. Through the addition of commercially available electroosmotic flow reducing coatings, I have been able to improve the separation of these amino acids, decreasing the run time by approximately 6 fold and increasing the efficiency by as much as 10 fold. Through the use of these coatings I have also been able to carry out electrophoretic separations of three peptides. My most recent work has focused on the polymerization of acrylamide gels in these channels. A method for the selective placement of a gel has been developed using a prepolymer solution with a light-sensitive initiator. Further work to adjust the polymer pore size and interface with ampholyte-containing gels should allow methods such as capillary gel electrophoresis (CGE), preconcentration, and two dimensional (isolectric focusing and CGE) separations to be performed. The development of gel-based analysis methods, along with other fluidic and electrical capacities, should move thin-film microdevices toward the realization of the lab-on-a-chip concept.
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45

Yalew, Amsalu W., Georg Hirte, Hermann Lotze-Campen i Stefan Tscharaktschiew. "Economic Effects of Climate Change in Developing Countries: Economy-wide and Regional Analysis for Ethiopia". Saechsische Landesbibliothek- Staats- und Universitaetsbibliothek Dresden, 2017. http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bsz:14-qucosa-227554.

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Quantifying the economic effects of climate change is a crucial step for planning adaptation in developing countries. This study assesses the economy-wide and regional effects of climate change induced productivity and labor supply shocks in agriculture in Ethiopia. The study shows, in worst case scenario, the effects on national GDP may add up to -8% with uneven regional effects ranging from -10% in agrarian regions (e.g. Amhara) to +2.5% in urbanized regions (e.g. Addis Ababa). Cost-free exogenous structural change scenarios in labor markets and transaction costs may offset about 20-30% of the ripple effects of climate change. Therefore, the ongoing structural transformation in the country may underpin the resilience of the economy to climate change. Nevertheless, given the role of agriculture in the current economic structure of the country and the potency of biophysical impacts of climate change, adaptation in the sector is indispensable. Otherwise, climate change may hamper economic progress of the country, and make rural livelihood unpredictable.
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46

Mobley, Michael. "The expansion of NAFTA membership a CGE analysis of tariff removal between Japan and North America /". Diss., Online access via UMI:, 2005.

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Kinyondo, Godbertha K. "The implications of globalisation on South African gender and economy a computable general equilibrium (CGE) analysis /". Pretoria : [s.n.], 2007. http://upetd.up.ac.za/thesis/available/etd-11222007-170024.

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48

Lochindaratn, Pachara. "Essays on preferential trade liberalisation and domestic tax policy : CGE evaluations for Thailand and for India". Thesis, University of Nottingham, 2009. http://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/10707/.

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This thesis employs the CGE approach to appraise three distinctive issues. Using hypothetical data, Essay 1 estimates how customs union outcomes are sensitive to market size and competitiveness. Further, common external tariffs are adjusted to ensure necessarily welfare-improving outcomes, thereby completely eliminating trade diversion. The results confirm that members’ gains are proportional to the union size, and the degree of market competition significantly alters the welfare outcome. Once common external tariffs are endogenised, members gain less while the whole world gains more as non-members become unaffected by trade diversion. Essay 2 assesses the FTAs Thailand has reached with Japan, China, India, Australia and New Zealand. The model constructed in Essay 1 is extended to accommodate the GTAP 6.0 database. It explicitly determines commodity market competition by sector and labour market paradigm by skill level to better reflect economic reality. Among these FTAs, JTEPA is the best, whilst TNZCEPA is the least beneficial FTA for Thailand. The gains from bilateral FTAs are trivial compared to those from the groupings that include ASEAN. Overall, trade diversion is offset by trade creation, thus the world finds all of the Thailand’s FTAs welfare-improving, albeit marginal. Essay 3 evaluates tax issues for India. It investigates the implications of domestic tax hikes tailored for the rebalancing of government revenue after an FTA among ASEAN, India, China and Japan. Income tax emerges as most effective, whereas production tax appears as least favourable. However, once taking into account the existence of untaxable economic activities, the most benign options measured by real output become consumption, production, income, and factor input taxes, respectively. Hence, the introduction of the substitution elasticity between taxable and untaxable goods largely alters the outcomes, and the informal sector ought not to be neglected if the government is to gauge true effects of domestic tax tools.
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Ertac, Dizem. "Investigating the effects of environmental and energy policies in Turkey using an energy-disaggregated CGE model". Doctoral thesis, Universite Libre de Bruxelles, 2020. http://hdl.handle.net/2013/ULB-DIPOT:oai:dipot.ulb.ac.be:2013/315740.

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This thesis investigates environmental and energy policies that Turkey needs to adopt on its way to a sustainable development path. A comparative-static, multi-sectoral CGE model, TurkMod, is developed in order to analyze the potential scenarios available for the Turkish economy to attain a low-carbon society with a reduced reliance on fossil fuel imports. Domestic energy demand has significantly increased in Turkey over the past decades and this has put a lot of pressure on policy-makers as the economy greatly depends on imports of natural gas and oil as far as current energy consumption is concerned. The CGE model in this study is based on a 2012 energy-disaggregated Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) constructed as a part of this thesis as well. The energy-disaggregated SAM incorporates 18 sectors for production activities, 11 products as commodities, 2 factors of production as labor and capital, 3 institutional accounts as firms, households, and the government, a separate account for taxes on commodities, taxes on production and taxes on different types of factor use, a capital account, and finally the rest of the world (ROW) account. Disaggregating the electricity sector to include 8 different types of power generating sectors (5 of which are renewable energy sources) enables electric power substitution in the model. The energy-disaggregated SAM is further linked with satellite accounts which include data on derived energy demand and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.The macroeconomic and environmental impacts of four distinct sets of scenarios are analyzed with respect to the baseline scenario. The first scenario simulates a 30% increase in energy efficiency in the production sectors and the residential sector and evidence is found for reaching the 21% GHG mitigation target set in Turkey’s pledge for Paris Agreement compliance. The second set of scenarios is the inclusion of a medium-level and high-level carbon tax rates for coal, oil and natural gas. The carbon tax scenarios produce significant effects on both emission reduction targets and substituting fossil fuel technologies with cleaner energy types. The third scenario investigates the sectoral and welfare impacts of providing subsidies for renewable energy sources. Turkey has already adopted a scheme where renewable energies are beings subsidized and promoted, however, this policy does not produce the necessary transformation for the Turkish society when utilized solely on its own. The fourth scenario estimates the effects of changes in world prices of energy on the Turkish economy. A 20% increase in world energy prices, i.e. oil, natural gas, and coal, induces substantial changes in the breakdown of TPES and the power-generating sector, but this scenario is a rather hypothetical one as it cannot be suggested as a viable policy option. All in all, these potential energy scenarios have significant and influential impacts on the Turkish economy and its environment. Notwithstanding, a carbon tax policy proves to be the most viable scenario which leads to reduced energy intensities in all sectors, a 21% GHG emissions abatement, and a transformation of the energy sector towards having a low-carbon content along with a reduced reliance on fossil fuel imports.
Doctorat en Sciences économiques et de gestion
info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished
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50

SPINELLI, ADRIANO. "Modeling Water Reallocation Policies in a CGE Framework: The Impact of Drought on the Kenyan Economy". Doctoral thesis, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, 2010. http://hdl.handle.net/10280/781.

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Il cambiamento climatico e la pressione antropica sulle risorse idriche rendono le politiche di gestione dell’acqua primordiali nell'agenda dei policy makers. Nel mio lavoro, inizialmente, presento una rassegna della letteratura in materia di modelli di Equilibro Generale Calcolabile (CGE) che incorporano l’acqua. In tale ambito, propongo la seguente classificazione: (i) la concorrenza tra i settori per l’uso di acqua; (ii) le politiche di prezzo e delle tariffe sull’acqua, (iii) l'acqua e le questioni commerciali, (iv) i modelli CGE ed altri modelli. In secondo luogo, analizzo gli effetti della siccità per l'economia del Kenya attraverso un modello CGE statico, calibrato sulla Matrice di Contabilità Sociale (SAM) del Kenya (2003). Il Kenya è stato scelto perché Paese particolarmente esposto a ricorrenti siccità (ad esempio negli anni 1994, 1998-2000, 2001 e 2003) che hanno duramente colpito le popolazioni più vulnerabili del paese, cioè quelle concentrate nelle zone aride e semiaride (ASAL). Inoltre, propongo l'introduzione di schemi di tassazione, al fine di produrre un extra-reddito che possa essere reinvestito per aumentare l'efficienza del settore idrico in Kenya o per trasferimenti alle famiglie rurali più povere. Infine, riproduco l'attuazione del progetto “Arid Land and Resource Management Project” (ALRMP) di FAO e Banca Mondiale. I risultati mostrano che, in primo luogo, gli effetti di una riduzione della dotazione di acqua sono più robusti di quelli derivanti da un aumento della dotazione d'acqua. In secondo luogo, la simulazione di uno scenario di siccità - in cui non solo la dotazione di acqua, ma anche la disponibilità di terra e la produttività di attività selezionate sono ridotti - fornisce un quadro più coerente dei risultati. In terzo luogo, tassare “raw water” (il fattore di acqua) può influenzare negativamente i redditi degli abitanti delle zone rurali. Infine, Il ALRMP ha un impatto positivo sulla riduzione degli effetti negativi della siccità sulle ASAL in Kenya.
Climate change and human pressure on water resources make water management policies primordial in the agenda of policy makers. I first propose a literature review of the works on Water Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Models suggesting the following classification: (i) competition between sectors; (ii) water pricing policies and tariffs; (iii) water and trade issues; (iv) CGE and other models. Secondly, the effects of droughts on the Kenyan economy are studied by means of a static CGE model, calibrated on the 2003 Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) of Kenya. As a water scarce Sub-Saharan country, Kenya is among those countries considered particularly exposed to drought problems. This has been witnessed in recent years by several recurring droughts (1994, 1998-2000, 2001, and 2003) which have harshly hit the most vulnerable part of the country, namely the Arid and Semi Arid Lands (ASAL). Besides, I propose the introduction of several taxation schemes in order to produce an extra revenue to be either reinvested in increasing the efficiency of the water sector in Kenya, or redistributed to the poorest rural households. Finally we simulate the implementation of the UN-FAO and World Bank “Arid Land and Resource Management Project” (ALRMP). The results show that, firstly, the effects of reducing water endowment are stronger than when increasing water endowment. Secondly, simulating a drought scenario – where not just water endowment but also availability of land and the productivity of selected activities are reduced - gives a more coherent picture of the outcomes. Thirdly, taxing raw water (the water factor) may negatively affect rural dwellers as they are owners of water resources. Finally, I found that the ALRMP has a positive impact on mitigating the negative effects of droughts in Kenyan ASAL.
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