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Đidelija, Irma. "The Causal Link Between Savings and Economic Growth in Bosnia and Herzegovina". South East European Journal of Economics and Business 16, nr 2 (1.12.2021): 114–31. http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/jeb-2021-0018.
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Abstract The causal link between savings and economic growth has been extensively discussed in the economic growth and development literature, but the question of the direction of this link has not yet been clearly defined. The aim of this paper is to determine the direction and intensity of savings causality (components of private savings) and economic growth in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Granger’s causality test, the Toda-Yamamoto procedure, was applied to test for causality between savings and economic growth. The results of Granger’s causality test indicated that there is no causal link between components of private savings with economic growth in Bosnia and Herzegovina. It was found that among the variables there is cointegration, but not causality, which means that the variables have a common stochastic trend. This fully corresponds to the characteristics of the Bosnia and Herzegovina’s economy.
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Gilbertson, Michael, i R. Stephen Schneider. "Causality: The Missing Link Between Science and Policy". Journal of Great Lakes Research 19, nr 4 (styczeń 1993): 720–21. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s0380-1330(93)71260-5.
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Gemsenjaeger, Ernst. "Causality Link between Hashimoto Thyroiditis and Thyroid Cancer?" Journal of the American College of Surgeons 205, nr 4 (październik 2007): e1. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jamcollsurg.2007.07.019.
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Velikanov, S. V. "THE STRUCTURE OF THE CAUSE AND EFFECT LINK IN THE CAUSALITY THEORY OF CRIMINALISTICS". Theory and Practice of Forensic Science and Criminalistics 15 (30.11.2016): 73–83. http://dx.doi.org/10.32353/khrife.2015.08.
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The article deals with the issues of the cause and effect link structure in the causality theory of criminalistics. It identifies similarity levels for causality as well as their hierarchy. Within the context of subject’s instrumental causality the link structure is represented by related events «the subject’s decision», «the subject’s action», «the use of the means», «the formation of the trace». Within the context of the subject causality without instruments the article discusses the links between the events «the subject’s decision» - «the subject’s actions» - «the formation of the trace». The context of object causality links the events «the object’s actions» and «the formation of the trace». The link «the subject’s decision» - «the subject’s actions» in subject causality is described as a mental phenomenon and with this regard the article provides arguments in favor of compatibility of the subject’s free will and determinism. The other links that are discussed in the article are of deterministic nature, as they take place while interacting with material objects and are governed by natural laws. The article determines the areas and branches of criminalistics where these contexts of cause and effect links are the most common.
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Chowdhury, Farzana Yesmin, i Sudip Dey. "CAUSAL LINK BETWEEN EXPORT, IMPORT, REMITTANCE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN BANGLADESH". ASIAN JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS AND FINANCE 4, nr 3 (2022): 331–45. http://dx.doi.org/10.47509/ajef.2022.v04i03.05.
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Given the importance of the economic indicators on the economic growth in Bangladesh, this paper examines the shortrun and long run causality between remittance, imports, exports and GDP growth of Bangladesh using the data over the liberalized period 1976-2016. Applying the Johansen cointegration and elasticity concept, this study finds that variables are cointegrated as well a long run nexus between exports, imports, remittances and GDP growth in Bangladesh. Besides, the Granger Causality test in a VECM (Vector Error Correction Model) framework, this study finds unidirectional causality from import to growth in Bangladesh. The hardly surprising result, remittance does not show any feedback effect/causality in both the short run and long run. The possible interpretation may be that remittances mainly benefit the individual receivers. The finding also explores that exports, imports and remittances endorse each other in the short run
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Chvosteková, Martina, Jozef Jakubík i Anna Krakovská. "Granger Causality on forward and Reversed Time Series". Entropy 23, nr 4 (30.03.2021): 409. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/e23040409.
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In this study, the information flow time arrow is investigated for stochastic data defined by vector autoregressive models. The time series are analyzed forward and backward by different Granger causality detection methods. Besides the normal distribution, which is usually required for the validity of Granger causality analysis, several other distributions of predictive errors are considered. A clear effect of a change in the order of cause and effect on the time-reversed series of unidirectionally connected variables was detected with standard Granger causality test (GC), when the product of the connection strength and the ratio of the predictive errors of the driver and the recipient was below a certain level, otherwise bidirectional causal connection was detected. On the other hand, opposite causal link was detected unconditionally by the methods based on the time reversal testing, but they were not able to detect correct bidirectional connection. The usefulness of the backward analysis is manifested in cases where falsely detected unidirectional connections can be rejected by applying the result obtained after the time reversal, and in cases of uncorrelated causally independent variables, where the absence of a causal link detected by GC on the original series should be confirmed on the time-reversed series.
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Iqbal, Azhar, i Muhammad Sabihuddin Butt. "Money-income Link in Developing Countries: a Heterogeneous Dynamic Panel Data Approach". Pakistan Development Review 42, nr 4II (1.12.2003): 987–1014. http://dx.doi.org/10.30541/v42i4iipp.987-1014.
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The question whether real money causes real output appears to be important for many economists working in the area of macroeconomics and, has been subjected to a variety of modern econometric techniques, producing conflicting results. One often applied method to investigate the empirical relationship between money and real activity is Granger causality analysis [Granger (1969)]. Using this approach, the causality question can be sharply posed as whether past values of money help to predict current values of output. This concept, however, should be clearly distinguished from any richer philosophical notion of causality [cf. Holland (1986)]. Present paper examines the relationship between money (both M1 and M2) and income (Real GDP) for 15 developing countries using a newly developed heterogeneous dynamic panel data approach.1 Sims (1972) postulated “the hypothesis that causality is unidirectional from money to income agrees with the post war U.S. data, whereas the hypothesis that causality is unidirectional from income to money is rejected”. Since then a voluminous literature has emerged testing the direction of causality.2 Some studies have tested the relationship between these variables and the direction of causality for a particular country using time series techniques [e.g., Hsiao (1979) for Canada, Stock and Watson (1989) for U.S. data, Friedman and Kuttner (1992, 1993) for U.S. data, Thoma (1994) for U.S. data, Christiana and Ljungquist (1988) for U.S. data, Davis and Tanner (1997) for U.S. data, Jusoh (1986) for Malaysia, Zubaidi, et al. (1996) for Malaysia, Biswas and Saunders (1998) for India, and Bengali, et al. (1999) for Pakistan]. Other studies have tested the above on a number of countries, for example Krol and Ohanian (1990) used the data for Canada, Germany, Japan and the U.K. Hayo (1999) using data from 14 European Union (EU) countries plus Canada, Japan, and the United States. More recently Hafer and Kutan (2002) used a sample of 20 industrialised and developing countries. This paper contributes to this later strand of the literature, which it extends in three directions. First, it employed a newly developed panel cointegration technique [Larsson, et al. (2001)], to examine the long-run relationship between money and income. Second, the study performs panel causality test, recently developed by Hurlin and Venet (2001), to explore the direction of causality between the said variables. Third, the important contribution of the present study is to test whether relationship between money and income is homogeneous or heterogeneous across countries.
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Jakubík, Jozef, Mary Phuong, Martina Chvosteková i Anna Krakovská. "Against the Flow of Time with Multi-Output Models". Measurement Science Review 23, nr 4 (1.08.2023): 175–83. http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/msr-2023-0023.
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Abstract Recent work has paid close attention to the first principle of Granger causality, according to which cause precedes effect. In this context, the question may arise whether the detected direction of causality also reverses after the time reversal of unidirectionally coupled data. Recently, it has been shown that for unidirectionally causally connected autoregressive (AR) processes X → Y, after time reversal of data, the opposite causal direction Y → X is indeed detected, although typically as part of the bidirectional X ↔ Y link. As we argue here, the answer is different when the measured data are not from AR processes but from linked deterministic systems. When the goal is the usual forward data analysis, cross-mapping-like approaches correctly detect X → Y, while Granger causality-like approaches, which should not be used for deterministic time series, detect causal independence X ⫫ Y . The results of backward causal analysis depend on the predictability of the reversed data. Unlike AR processes, observables from deterministic dynamical systems, even complex nonlinear ones, can be predicted well forward, while backward predictions can be difficult (notably when the time reversal of a function leads to one-to-many relations). To address this problem, we propose an approach based on models that provide multiple candidate predictions for the target, combined with a loss function that consideres only the best candidate. The resulting good forward and backward predictability supports the view that unidirectionally causally linked deterministic dynamical systems X → Y can be expected to detect the same link both before and after time reversal.
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Allen, Samantha, i Jacob H. Swenberg. "Do link polynomials detect causality in globally hyperbolic spacetimes?" Journal of Mathematical Physics 62, nr 3 (1.03.2021): 032503. http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/5.0040956.
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Wang, Huiqiang. "The causality link between political risk and stock prices". Journal of Financial Economic Policy 11, nr 3 (5.08.2019): 338–67. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/jfep-07-2018-0106.
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Purpose Prior studies have paid close attention to the impact of political risk on financial markets. Following this strand of literature, this paper aims to focus on the causality link between political shocks and their impacts on emerging stock markets. Design/methodology/approach This paper highlights an innovative counterfactual model for political risk assessment. Based on a natural experiment, i.e. the Taiwan Strait Crisis in 1995-1996, this study utilizes one data-driven approach, e.g. the synthetic control methods (SCMs), to estimate causal impact of this political shock on Taiwan’s stock market. Findings Major findings in this study are consistent with existing literature on the price of political risk, e.g. political uncertainty commands a risk premium. The SCM estimations suggest that Taiwan’s stock prices dramatically underperformed its newly industrialized peers and other developed markets during the crisis. The SCM results are statistically significant and robust to various cross-validation tests. Research limitations/implications Findings in this study indicate that political risks could generate enormous impacts on emerging financial markets. In particular, political uncertainty following new geopolitical dynamics requires proper identification and assessment. Originality/value To the author’s knowledge, this paper is the first rigorous counterfactual study to the causality relationship between political uncertainty and stock prices in emerging markets. This paper is distinct from previous studies in applying a data-driven approach to combine the features of learning from others (cross-sectional) and learning from the past (time series).
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Martarelli, Corinna S. "On the link between phenomenal causality and personality dominance". Cognitive Processing 20, nr 1 (9.08.2018): 117–23. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10339-018-0874-5.
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Lu, Xun, Liangjun Su i Halbert White. "GRANGER CAUSALITY AND STRUCTURAL CAUSALITY IN CROSS-SECTION AND PANEL DATA". Econometric Theory 33, nr 2 (17.03.2016): 263–91. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0266466616000086.
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Granger noncausality in distribution is fundamentally a probabilistic conditional independence notion that can be applied not only to time series data but also to cross-section and panel data. In this paper, we provide a natural definition of structural causality in cross-section and panel data and forge a direct link between Granger (G–) causality and structural causality under a key conditional exogeneity assumption. To put it simply, when structural effects are well defined and identifiable,G–non-causality follows from structural noncausality, and with suitable conditions (e.g., separability or monotonicity), structural causality also impliesG–causality. This justifies using tests ofG–non-causality to test for structural noncausality under the key conditional exogeneity assumption for both cross-section and panel data. We pay special attention to heterogeneous populations, allowing both structural heterogeneity and distributional heterogeneity. Most of our results are obtained for the general case, without assuming linearity, monotonicity in observables or unobservables, or separability between observed and unobserved variables in the structural relations.
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Koutsoyiannis, Demetris, Christian Onof, Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz i Antonis Christofides. "On Hens, Eggs, Temperatures and CO2: Causal Links in Earth’s Atmosphere". Sci 5, nr 3 (13.09.2023): 35. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/sci5030035.
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The scientific and wider interest in the relationship between atmospheric temperature (T) and concentration of carbon dioxide ([CO2]) has been enormous. According to the commonly assumed causality link, increased [CO2] causes a rise in T. However, recent developments cast doubts on this assumption by showing that this relationship is of the hen-or-egg type, or even unidirectional but opposite in direction to the commonly assumed one. These developments include an advanced theoretical framework for testing causality based on the stochastic evaluation of a potentially causal link between two processes via the notion of the impulse response function. Using, on the one hand, this framework and further expanding it and, on the other hand, the longest available modern time series of globally averaged T and [CO2], we shed light on the potential causality between these two processes. All evidence resulting from the analyses suggests a unidirectional, potentially causal link with T as the cause and [CO2] as the effect. That link is not represented in climate models, whose outputs are also examined using the same framework, resulting in a link opposite the one found when the real measurements are used.
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Çevik, Emrah, Erdal Atukeren i Turhan Korkmaz. "Oil Prices and Global Stock Markets: A Time-Varying Causality-In-Mean and Causality-in-Variance Analysis". Energies 11, nr 10 (21.10.2018): 2848. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/en11102848.
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This study examines the Granger-causal relationships between oil price movements and global stock returns by using time-varying Granger-causality tests in mean and in variance. We use the daily returns from Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) G7 and the MSCI Emerging Stock Market Indexes to distinguish between the effects of daily oil price movements on G7 countries’ and emerging market countries’ stock markets. We further divide the emerging markets into two groups as oil-exporting and oil-importing countries. For the oil market, we use both the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent oil daily price movements. While the Granger-causality-in-mean tests indicate a causal link from WTI oil prices and G7 countries’ stock returns to MSCI emerging countries’ stock returns, the Granger-causality-in-variance tests suggest no causal link from global oil market prices to stock market returns. Nonetheless, a causal link from the G7 countries’ stock returns to the MSCI emerging countries’ stock returns is detected. In addition, G7 countries’ stock market volatility is found to Granger-cause Brent oil price volatility. The time-varying Granger-causality-in-mean and Granger-causality-in-variance tests present new and further insights. A causal relationship between oil price changes and G7 countries’ stock returns is found for some periods during and after the global financial crisis. Time-varying Granger-causality-in-variance test results indicate evidence of causal linkages among oil prices and global stock market returns that are specific only to certain time periods. We also find that there might be a difference between the movements in Brent and WTI oil prices with respect to their Granger-causal effects on oil-importing emerging markets’ stock returns—especially after the global financial crisis. Our results provide further evidence that the effects of oil price movements on stock returns might be different depending on the volatility in the stock markets.
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Khan, Raza Ali, Mohd Shahir Liew i Zulkipli bin Ghazali. "Service and Construction Sector of Malaysia: Causality Link (1991-2013)". Applied Mechanics and Materials 567 (czerwiec 2014): 619–24. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/amm.567.619.
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The number of research studies has been conducted over the importance of service and construction sector in an economy and confirmed that these two sectors are always being closely associated to the aggregate economy and play crucial role in the socio economic development of a country. The objective of this study is to examine the link between the construction and service sector of Malaysia during the last two decades by using time series econometric analysis. The Granger causality approach is used to obtain the objective of the study. The results of the study suggest that there is a uni-directional (one way) association between the service and construction sector in Malaysia i.e. construction sector to service sector. The construction sector plays a significant role to motivate the economic activities of the service sector in Malaysia and the service sector take 6 months (two quarters) to absorb the impact of a shock coming from the construction sector. The results of the study are important and useful for developing future policies for the construction and services sectors of Malaysia. The results are also important and informative for interested parties of the sectors.
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Menard, Audrey-Rose, i Laurent Weill. "Understanding the link between aid and corruption: A causality analysis". Economic Systems 40, nr 2 (czerwiec 2016): 260–72. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecosys.2016.01.001.
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Chapman, Kenneth S., i Govind Hariharan. "Controlling for causality in the link from income to mortality". Journal of Risk and Uncertainty 8, nr 1 (styczeń 1994): 85–93. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/bf01064087.
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Ijaz, Mariam. "Does Poverty Reduction Cause Economic Development". Sukkur IBA Journal of Economics and Finance 2, nr 1 (6.09.2018): 36. http://dx.doi.org/10.30537/sijef.v2i1.200.
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Extreme poverty is a threat faced by billions of people making economic development as a chief goal for most of the countries all over the world. Having a deep understanding of the whole gamut of poverty, this study attempts to empirically investigate that whether a causal link exists between poverty reduction and economic development or not? And if it exists, then what is the direction of that causal link. The Panel data cover 26 developing countries, on the basis of the availability of data, for the years from 1994 to 2015. Through Co-integration to Pairwise Granger Causality Test & Granger Causality based on VEC Model, this study analyses the causality between poverty reduction and economic development. This study, apart from poverty reduction, also incorporates some other independent variables affecting economic development. The trickle-up theory, adopted in this study, explains the channels through which poverty reduction could cause economic development. The main conclusion drawn from the empirical results is that a causal link running from poverty reduction to economic development exists. This implies that poverty reduction causes economic development.
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Koomson-Abekah, Isaac, i Eugene Chinweokwu Nwaba. "Africa-China investment and growth link". Journal of Chinese Economic and Foreign Trade Studies 11, nr 2 (4.06.2018): 132–50. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/jcefts-11-2017-0034.
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PurposeThis paper aims to investigate China–Africa Investment link, using over two decades of FDI’s data. During the specified periods, African economic growth path has been predominantly upward trending, despite multiple external threats. This impressive growth was partly because of the growth of FDI stock across the region. This study explores the various sources of FDI to Africa, mainly China’s FDI’s and how they influence African macroeconomic indicators, i.e. unemployment, export and import activities.Design/methodology/approachPesaran autoregressive distributive lag (ARDL) is used as a framework to test the short-run and long-run relationship of indicators. Granger causality test checked the causality between growth and macroeconomic indicators.FindingsThe link between China’s FDI and African economic growth reported a negative/declining effect in both short and long run. In the long run, the effect of world FDI on growth was significant but not the in the short run. However, US FDI to Africa, China Export and Import from Africa reported an insignificant effect on growth. There was no evidence of Okun’s law, as a decrease in Africa unemployment does not increase growth. Overall, China’s FDI’s inflows to Africa are allocated to capital-intensive activities which has less labor employability. The Granger causality test reported a uni-directional link between growth and all series, except for human capital which experienced no link at all in all directions. Despite the issue of socio-infrastructure militating against growth in the region, African economy is likely to perform better, if more FDI’s are channeled into labor-intensive activities, because it has a reductive effect on unemployment.Research limitations/implicationsThe research considered point annual FDI data but not accumulated stock and is a macro-based study, i.e. regional economy.Practical implicationsThis paper bridged the literature gap in African investment performance by providing an empirical justification in understanding the inflow of FDI, especially China. This is a useful guard in policy design and implementations in the attraction of the right type of investment, so as to reduce unemployment and promote growth.Originality/valueThe authors confirm that this study has not been published elsewhere and is not under consideration in whole or in part by another journal.
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AbuAl-Foul, Bassam M., Ismail Genc i Musa Darayseh. "On the causal link between financial development and economic growth: Case of Jordan". Corporate Ownership and Control 13, nr 2 (2016): 518–20. http://dx.doi.org/10.22495/cocv13i2c3p2.
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This paper empirically examines the causal relation between financial development and economic growth in the case of Jordan for the period 1965 to 2004. That is, the paper attempts to provide answers to the following questions: a) Does financial development promotes economic growth? Or b) Does economic growth promotes financial development? Using Toda and Yamamoto (1995) Granger-no-causality model, the results reveal that there is a uni-directional Granger causality from economic growth to financial development (as defined by log (DC/GDP)).
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Zardoub, Amna. "Time Varying Causality between Oil Price and Precious Metals : Bootstrap Rolling Windows Granger Causality Approach". International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy 14, nr 4 (5.07.2024): 344–51. http://dx.doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.15728.
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The study of the interaction between oil price and precious metals occupies a research activity and pushes various economists to seek implications both on the economic and political level. It is also important to take into account the evolution of the oil and precious metals markets throughout the period of the COVID-19 pandemic and recently the Ukraine-Russian war. In this paper, we examine the link between the oil price and three types of precious metals namely gold, silver and platinum using the rolling window Granger bootstrap causality method. The study is conducted on the monthly data of oil price and precious metals from the period span from January, 2004 to May, 2022. The empirical results lead to a strong unidirectional causality between oil and platinum and absence of causality between oil and the other two metals.
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Popescu, Cecilia Mihaela. "L’expression de la causalité en latin et dans les langues romanes : matrices formelles et gradation intensionnelle". Studia Universitatis Babeș-Bolyai Philologia 67, nr 1 (25.03.2022): 201–16. http://dx.doi.org/10.24193/subbphilo.2022.1.12.
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"The Expression of Causality in Latin and in Romance Languages: Formal Frames and Intentional Gradation. This approach proposes a reflection on the expression of “causality” in Latin and in Romance languages. First, we will study the ontology and the multiple nature of the notion of “causality”, as well as the formal matrices of the realization of the causal link between two propositions, between two sentences or between two communication situations. We will then take into consideration the relationship between “causality” and “subjectivity” and we will exemplify this relationship by reviewing some causal connectors with an argumentative and/or metadiscursive function. At this point, we will also review the syntactic and semantic functioning of the explicative causal constructions introduced by the prototypical connectors: Lat. NAM, Fr. car and Rom. căci, in order to indicate the similarities and especially the differences in the behaviour of these lexical and grammatical units. Keywords: causality relation, subjectivity, causality markers, cohesion, coherence, Latin and Romance languages "
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Miladinov, Goran. "Long-Run and Short-Run Relationship Between Remittances and GDP Per Capita Growth, Evidence from Balkans Countries". Journal of World Economy 2, nr 3 (wrzesień 2023): 1–12. http://dx.doi.org/10.56397/jwe.2023.09.01.
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This research study aims to explore the link between remittances as percentage of GDP and GDP per capita growth in six Balkans countries and Kosovo for the period 2007-2020. Panel cointegration based on dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) model was applied to check the magnitude of the potential long-run coefficients between the remittances as percentage of GDP and GDP per capita growth. In addition, the pairwise Granger causality tests were performed to capture the causal link among these two variables. The findings from the DOLS model indicate a positive association between remittance’s inflows and GDP per capita growth in the long-run. DOLS short–run relationships showed that the value of variable-remittances as percent of GDP has predictable properties to be a leading and lagging factor for these countries in the coming years. Results from the Granger causality confirm causality in unilateral direction running from remittance’s inflow to GDP per capita growth.
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Tan, David, i Kan Tsui. "Investigating causality in international air freight and business travel: The case of Australia". Urban Studies 54, nr 5 (20.07.2016): 1178–93. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0042098015620520.
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Few studies have examined the link between air cargo and business travel, despite there being a generally accepted understanding that these two variables are inextricably related to each other. This paper examines the relationship between air cargo and business travel at the international level and analyses how these two variables are causally related. Moreover, we break down the sample into three major Australian states (New South Wales, Queensland, and Victoria), as each possesses a distinct flavour in trade and commerce. Utilising Granger causality methods, we have found evidence that there is a direct causal relationship between business travel and air cargo in the short run, and a bi-directional relationship in periods of 12 months and longer. The nature of the Granger causality at the state-level substantially differs from state to state, suggesting that the economic landscape of Australia’s local economy has a significant impact on the air cargo and business travel relationship.
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Kaur, Manpreet, Surendra S. Yadav i Vinayshil Gautam. "A bivariate causality link between foreign direct investment and economic growth". Journal of International Trade Law and Policy 12, nr 1 (22.03.2013): 68–79. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/14770021311312502.
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Khan, Muhammad Irfan, Athar Iqbal, Syed Imran Zaman i Faraz Wajidi. "Unemployment: A Missing Link". Market Forces 15, nr 2 (1.12.2020): 20. http://dx.doi.org/10.51153/mf.v15i2.463.
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Developing countries like Pakistan face a host of economic problems in the form of stagnant exports, low economic growth, inadequate private investment, and inefficient utilization of foreign direct investment. Given these problems, we have examined macroeconomic factors impact on unemployment in Pakistan from 1967 to 2018. We also tested the proposed hypotheses through “VAR, fully modified least squares, and Granger causality tests.” Our results suggest that exports did not stimulate jobs in Pakistan. Perhaps, Pakistan needs to diversify its exports by focusing on non-conventional value-added goods. The results also indicate that although FDI and government expenditures have created jobs, they are below expectations. Although we found that private investment has helped job creation, the effect is small compared to other developing countries. Furthermore, we find that macroeconomic factors have had little impact on unemployment in the long run.
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Ölmez, Fevzi, i Doğukan Tarakçı. "Does trade pattern matter for tourism activities? Evidence from the twenty most visited countries". European Journal of Tourism Research 37 (12.04.2024): 3706. http://dx.doi.org/10.54055/ejtr.v37i.3253.
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This study aims to investigate the relationship between international tourism and total trade, including exports and imports, for the twenty most visited countries. In order to accurately assess the relationship, the study employs the Emirmahmutoglu and Kose (2011) causality analysis, which accounts for cross-sectional dependency and heterogeneity. The empirical results show a unidirectional causality running from total trade, exports, and imports to international tourist arrivals for Germany, India, Mexico, and the Netherlands. Conversely, the causality runs from international tourist arrivals to total trade, exports, and imports for Portugal, Russia, and Spain (except imports). Additionally, a bidirectional causality link between international trade and tourism is found for China, indicating that both tourism and trade mutually reinforce each other. These results highlight the importance of considering the direction of causality in the relationship between tourism and trade, and developing targeted policies that take into account the unique characteristics of each country.
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Depken, Craig A., Maja Nikšić Radić i Hana Paleka. "Causality between Foreign Remittance and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Croatia". Sustainability 13, nr 21 (5.11.2021): 12201. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su132112201.
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While human capital and foreign capital have received considerable attention in the study of economic growth, foreign remittances are less of a focus. Though some studies have identified the increasing importance of remittances, they have failed to analyze the relationship between foreign remittances and economic growth. The aim of this paper is to investigate the causal link between foreign remittances and economic growth in the Republic of Croatia over the period from 2000q1 to 2020q2. Any causal link is identified using Granger causality tests in vector autoregression models. In addition, variance decomposition and impulse response functions help determine any dynamic links. The empirical results suggest that, in the case of Croatia, there is a unidirectional causal relationship from foreign remittances to economic growth but no link in the opposite direction. The research results indicate that foreign remittances play a role in the Croatian economy and are one of the consequences of the large emigration processes that affected Croatia after joining the European Union.
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Byaro, Mwoya, Abeli Kinyondo i Patrick Musonda. "Economic growth and under-five malaria mortality in Tanzania mainland: from correlation analysis to causality". International Journal of Health 5, nr 1 (1.05.2017): 91. http://dx.doi.org/10.14419/ijh.v5i1.7533.
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This paper establishes empirical evidence related with correlation and causality between economic growth (as measured by GDP per capita) and under-five malaria mortality in Tanzania Mainland. The goal is to contribute knowledge on the existing relationship between economic growth and under-five malaria mortality. Correlation and scatter regression analysis plot were employed to find out the relationship among the (GDP per Capita), Insecticides Treated Nets (ITNs) distributed, Human Resources (physicians and nurses) and under-five malaria mortality from the year 2004 to 2015. Moreover, Granger Causality test was applied to test the causal link between the economic growth and under-five malaria Mortality. The economic growth (as measured by GDP per Capita) and number of ITNs distributed under various malaria campaigns have significant unidirectional causality to under-five malaria mortality while there is no causality evidence between human resource for health (physicians and nurses) and under-five malaria mortality despite the observed correlation relationship. Since economic growth and ITNs have unidirectional causal link with under-five malaria mortality, it implies that any changes in GDP per Capita and ITNs will change under-five malaria mortality. The researchers and policy makers need to gather more evidence on ITNs and economic growth to assess the risk of under-five malaria mortality to inform decision making.
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Mokni, Khaled, Mohamed Sahbi Nakhli, Othman Mnari i Khemaies Bougatef. "Symmetric and Asymmetric Causal Relationship between Oil Prices and G7 Stock Markets: A Bootstrap Rolling-Window Granger Causality Test". Journal of Economic Integration 36, nr 4 (15.12.2021): 718–44. http://dx.doi.org/10.11130/jei.2021.36.4.718.
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This study examines the causal relationships between oil prices and the MSCI stock index of G7 countries between September 2004 and October 2020. This study is novel in implementing symmetric and asymmetric time-varying causality tests based on the bootstrap rolling-window approach. The results reveal that the causal link between oil prices and G7 stock markets is time-dependent. The periods of bidirectional causality roughly coincide with the global financial crisis and the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. When asymmetry is accounted for, the results suggest an asymmetric causality between the two markets expressed by different patterns regarding positive and negative oil shocks. The results also indicate symmetric causality during the COVID-19 pandemic. These findings have implications for portfolio design and hedging strategies that are important to both policymakers and investors.
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Kalliokoski, Toni, i Katri Havu. "Article: Single Infringements of Competition Law: Who is liable for what?" Common Market Law Review 61, Issue 2 (1.04.2024): 417–48. http://dx.doi.org/10.54648/cola2024027.
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The private enforcement of EU competition law depends on national remedial and procedural rules. Both EU law and national rules require a causal link to be established between a harmful event and the resultant harm. The content of this causal link is mostly a matter for national rules. The ECJ case law on the nature of said causal link therefore remains underdeveloped, even though the issue of causality is highly relevant as it concerns every private enforcement case. This article explores the implications of the EU competition law notion of “single infringement” for private enforcement in general and for the understanding of the concepts of “harmful event” and “causal link” in particular. EU-level case law is analysed to determine how the finding of a single infringement could impact private enforcement. It is argued that EU competition law likely affects the application of national causality rules by defining the relevant harmful event through the concept of “single infringement”. EU competition law; single infringement; private enforcement; damages claims; national courts
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Ugwu, Ephraim, Johnson Okoh i Stella Mbah. "THE LINK BETWEEN BANK CREDIT AND PRIVATE SECTOR INVESTMENT IN NIGERIA FROM 1980-2014". Oradea Journal of Business and Economics 2, nr 1 (marzec 2017): 43–54. http://dx.doi.org/10.47535/1991ojbe016.
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This study attempts to investigate the link between bank credit and private sector investment in Nigeria from 1980 to 2014 using Ordinary Least Square (OLS) regression procedure. The study also employs other preliminary investigations which include, unit root, cointegration and Granger causality test procedures. The OLS result indicates that the coefficients of the variables which include, banks credit to the private sector (CRPRIVAT), trade openness (OPEN), exchange rate (EXCHR) and total bank saving (BSAVING) exhibit positive signs to the dependent variable, private investment (INVEST) during the period under review, while the coefficients of two other variables, capital expenditure (CAP) and interest rate (INTR) indicate negative signs to the dependent variable. The stationarity test result shows that all the variables under consideration are stationary and integrated of order one at 5% significance level. Also, the cointegration test result indicates at most five cointegrating equations at 5% level of significance. The Granger causality test result shows that a bi-directional causality exists between banks credit and private investment and also between private investment and capital expenditure, while a uni-directional causality exists from exchange rate to private investment.Statistically, the descriptive statistics result indicates that all the variables have a positive mean values which ranges from 18.05390 to 2427052 with 34 observations.The correlation test result obtained shows that four variables, CRPRIVAT, OPEN, EXCHR and BSAVING have positive relationships with the dependent variable INVEST. The t-statistic result shows that five of the variables which includes, CRPRIVAT, OPEN, CAP, INTR and EXCHR are statistically significant at 5% significance level. The study recommends that there is a need for increased Federal government support to banks in terms of policies that would encourage lending to the private sector in Nigeria.
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SEDDON, TOBY. "Explaining the Drug–Crime Link: Theoretical, Policy and Research Issues". Journal of Social Policy 29, nr 1 (styczeń 2000): 95–107. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0047279400005833.
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The belief that drug addiction is the motor behind much property crime has been a key part of recent UK drug policy. Review of the literature shows that the empirical evidence does not support this view. It also demonstrates that the fundamental weakness of existing research is its failure to address the question of causality properly, relying mainly on uni-directional mechanistic ‘cause-and-effect’ models. It is suggested that the drug–crime link needs to be conceived in the context of the interaction and inter-relation of a range of factors operating at different levels and as part of a set of complex processes. The implications for policy are that a reliance on improving access to treatment is likely to be of limited effectiveness in reducing drug-related crime and that an emphasis on tackling social exclusion may be more fruitful. Future research needs to explore further the notion of causality outlined in this paper. It must also examine emerging patterns of polydrug use and look at minority ethnic groups and women.
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Purnama, Yudi Purnama. "Fixed Broadband Penetration and Economic Growth". Australian Journal of Telecommunications and the Digital Economy 6, nr 3 (17.08.2018): 1–16. http://dx.doi.org/10.18080/ajtde.v6n3.151.
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This study explores causal relationships between fixed broadband penetration, gross capital accumulation, the degree of urbanisation, and economic growth, using panel data from 9 ASEAN member countries in 2003-2016. Employing multivariate models, we reveal bidirectional causality between fixed broadband penetration and economic growth, with a higher magnitude of effect from GDP per capita to broadband penetration. Furthermore, fixed broadband penetration has bidirectional causality to urbanisation, while a unidirectional link exists from fixed broadband penetration to gross capital accumulation.
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Purnama, Yudi Purnama. "Fixed Broadband Penetration and Economic Growth". Journal of Telecommunications and the Digital Economy 6, nr 3 (17.08.2018): 1–16. http://dx.doi.org/10.18080/jtde.v6n3.151.
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This study explores causal relationships between fixed broadband penetration, gross capital accumulation, the degree of urbanisation, and economic growth, using panel data from 9 ASEAN member countries in 2003-2016. Employing multivariate models, we reveal bidirectional causality between fixed broadband penetration and economic growth, with a higher magnitude of effect from GDP per capita to broadband penetration. Furthermore, fixed broadband penetration has bidirectional causality to urbanisation, while a unidirectional link exists from fixed broadband penetration to gross capital accumulation.
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Coulibaly, Daouda, i Fulgence Zran Goueu. "An Empirical Analysis of the Link between Economic Growth and Exports in Côte d’Ivoire". International Business Research 12, nr 9 (29.08.2019): 94. http://dx.doi.org/10.5539/ibr.v12n9p94.
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This paper aims to analyze the relationship between exports and economic growth in Côte d’Ivoire. In order to achieve this objective, annual data for the period 1960-2017 were tested by using the cointegration approach of Pesaran, Shin and Smith, including the causality test of Breitung and Schreiber. According to our analysis it is only exports that drive economic growth and not the opposite. Exports act positively and significantly on economic growth in the short term as well as in the long term. The causality test of Breitung and schreiber indicates a one-way long-run causal relationship ranging from exports to gross domestic product (GDP). All those results show that exports are a source of Ivorian economic growth.
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Igel, Matthew. "Lagrangian Cloud Tracking and the Precipitation-Column Humidity Relationship". Atmosphere 9, nr 8 (26.07.2018): 289. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/atmos9080289.
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The tropical, oceanic mean relationship between column relative humidity and precipitation is highly non-linear. Mean precipitation remains weak until it rapidly picks up and grows at high column humidity. To investigate the origin of this relationship, a Lagrangian cloud tracking code, RAMStracks, is developed, which can follow the evolution of clouds. RAMStracks can record the morphological properties of convective clouds, the meteorological environment of clouds, and their effects. RAMStracks is applied to a large-domain radiative convective equilibrium simulation, which produces a complex population of convective clouds. RAMStracks records the lifecycle of 501 clouds through growth, splits, mergers, and decay. The mean evolution of all these clouds is examined. It is shown that the column humidity evolves non-monotonically, but that lower-level and upper-level contributions to total moisture do evolve monotonically. The precipitation efficiency of tropical storms tends to increase with cloud age. This is confirmed using a prototype testing method. The same method reveals that different tracked clouds with similar initial conditions evolve in very different ways. This makes drawing general conclusions from individual storms difficult. Finally, the causality of the precipitation-column humidity relationship is examined. A Granger Causality test, as well as regressions, suggest that moisture and precipitation are causally linked, but that the direction of causality is ambiguous. Much of this link appears to come from the lower-level moisture’s contribution to column humidity.
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Fakudze, Siphe-okuhle, Asrat Tsegaye i Kin Sibanda. "The relationship between financial development and economic growth in Eswatini (formerly Swaziland)". African Journal of Economic and Management Studies 13, nr 1 (29.10.2021): 15–28. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/ajems-06-2021-0291.
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PurposeThe paper examined the relationship between financial development and economic growth for the period 1996 to 2018 in Eswatini.Design/methodology/approachThe Autoregressive Distributed Lag bounds test (ARDL) was employed to determine the long-run and short-run dynamics of the link between the variables of interest. The Granger causality test was also performed to establish the direction of causality between financial development and economic growth.FindingsThe ARDL results revealed that there is a long-run relationship between financial development and economic growth. The Granger causality test revealed bidirectional causality between money supply and economic growth, and unidirectional causality running from economic growth to financial development. The results highlight that economic growth exerts a positive and significant influence on financial development, validating the demand following hypothesis in Eswatini.Practical implicationsPolicymakers should formulate policies that aims to engineer more economic growth. The policies should strike a balance between deploying funds necessary to stimulate investment and enhancing productivity in order to enliven economic growth in Eswatini.Originality/valueThe study investigates the finance-growth linkage using time series analysis. It determines the long-run and short-run dynamics of this relationship and examines the Granger causality outcomes.
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Deponte, Antonella. "Linking motivation to personality: causality orientations, motives and self‐descriptions". European Journal of Personality 18, nr 1 (styczeń 2004): 31–44. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/per.503.
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This study examines how motives and personality traits differ in people with distinct causality orientations, which refer to the predominant way a person interprets the events that initiate his/her own behaviour. First, a validation of the General Causality Orientation Scale for the Italian language was conducted on 702 undergraduate students. Then, in order to test the hypothesis that causality orientations correspond to different motive patterns and self‐descriptions, relations between the GCOS and other constructs were analysed through correlational analysis applied to smaller sub‐samples. The conclusion is that the autonomy orientation represents an active and creative way of interacting with the social environment. Conversely, the control and impersonal orientations indicate a lower degree of adjustment and psychological well‐being. Conclusions are drawn about the causality orientation theory as a link between personality and motivation. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
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Škare, Marinko, Dean Sinković i Małgorzata Porada-Rochoń. "MEASURING CREDIT STRUCTURE IMPACT ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN CROATIA USING (VECM) 1990-2018". Journal of Business Economics and Management 20, nr 2 (22.03.2019): 294–310. http://dx.doi.org/10.3846/jbem.2019.8344.
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Studies on the finance-growth link use different proxy variables for financial development. Among the most used is the total credit share in the GDP. Previous empirical studies show to be sensitive to the choice of the finance proxy indicator. Total credit share in the GDP appears biased in empirical modeling. Credit structure (loans to firms and households) prove to be more robust when used in the modeling. Credit structure reveals a different impact on economic growth showing lending policy impact varies depending on the credit structure. Researchers studying the finance-growth link must account for this when investigating supply leading and demand-following theories. Policymakers should also take care of the credit structure since loans to household discourage growth in the long run and are sensitive to economic shocks. We find empirical evidence to support both supply leading and demand- following theory. Bi-directional causality between private loans to firms/households and economic growth exists using Granger causality test. Private loans to firms and households economic growth exists using Granger causality test. Private loans to firms and households have a positive impact on economic growth in Croatia.
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Park, Ji Hwan, Woojin Chang i Jae Wook Song. "Link prediction in the Granger causality network of the global currency market". Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications 553 (wrzesień 2020): 124668. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2020.124668.
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de Meulemeester, Jean-Luc, i Denis Rochat. "A causality analysis of the link between higher education and economic development". Economics of Education Review 14, nr 4 (grudzień 1995): 351–61. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0272-7757(95)00015-c.
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Lin, Xuhong, Dandan Wei, Huichao Wang, Zhaoya Yu, Yuxia Li, Yanmin Li, Yanan Wen, Xuequn Ren i Guanchang Cheng. "Ulcerate colitis and protein C system: is there a link of causality". International Journal of Colorectal Disease 31, nr 6 (5.12.2015): 1255–56. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00384-015-2453-x.
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Palamalai, Srinivasan, i Karthigai Prakasam. "Stock Market Development and Economic Growth in India". International Journal of Finance & Banking Studies (2147-4486) 3, nr 3 (21.07.2014): 30–46. http://dx.doi.org/10.20525/ijfbs.v3i3.187.
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The link between stock market development and economic activity has always been the subject of considerable debate in the field of economics and it raises empirical question whether stock market development influences economic activity or whether it is a consequence of increased economic activity. This study attempts to investigate the direction of causality between stock market development and economic growth in the Indian context. Using the cointegration and causality tests for the period June 1991 to June 2013, the study confirms a well defined long-run equilibrium relationship between the stock market development indicators and economic growth in India. The empirical results show bidirectional causality between market capitalisation and economic growth and unidirectional causality from turnover ratio to economic growth in the long-run and short-run. By and large, it can be inferred that the stock market development indicators viz. market capitalisation and turnover ratio have a positive influence on economic growth in India.
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Akinkunmi, Mustapha Abiodun, i Saheed Bello. "Reinvestigating the Co-Movements Between Stock Market and Exchange Rates: An Augmented Vector Autoregression Analysis". Economics and Finance Letters 9, nr 1 (6.05.2022): 40–48. http://dx.doi.org/10.18488/29.v9i1.2988.
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Empirical works on the stock market exchange rate nexus remain scanty in the managed floating exchange rate environment like Nigeria. Thus, our paper contributes to the scanty literature by analyzing how the COVID19 pandemic shapes the existing link in the oil-rich countries like Nigeria using a time series approach based on daily data spanning between 2017 and 2021. The paper investigates a Granger causality relationship in the specified VAR model by implementing the Toda and Yamamoto procedures while determining the direction of the causality through our impulse response analysis. Our findings show unidirectional causality from exchange rates to the stock market in the pandemic but no causality before the pandemic. This suggests that the exchange rate affects the performance of the Nigerian stock market in the pandemic period. Therefore, the Nigerian stock market and the exchange rate should not be considered as alternative strategies to mitigate risk during the crisis periods.
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ADJEI-FRIMPONG, KOFI, CHRISTOPHER GAN i BAIDING HU. "EFFICIENCY AND COMPETITION IN THE GHANAIAN BANKING INDUSTRY: A PANEL GRANGER CAUSALITY APPROACH". Annals of Financial Economics 08, nr 01 (czerwiec 2013): 1350004. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s2010495213500048.
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This study examines the causal link between bank efficiency and bank competition. The study estimates bank competition with the Lerner index and bank cost efficiency with data envelopment analysis using annual data over the period 2001–2010. Using system generalized method of moments (system GMM) estimator, the results suggest that bank cost efficiency positively Granger-causes market power and hence causality negatively runs from bank cost efficiency to bank competition indicating that bank cost efficiency precedes bank competition. However, the reverse causality running from bank competition to bank cost efficiency is not supported.
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Nafti, Sawssen. "FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT, ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY, TRADE OPENNESS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: EMPIRICAL STUDY IN MENA COUNTRIES". International Journal of Advanced Research 9, nr 09 (30.09.2021): 920–31. http://dx.doi.org/10.21474/ijar01/13504.
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In this paper, we empirically investigate the causal relationship between financial development, environmental degradation (CO2 emissions), trade openness and economic growth (GDP), using Panel data (the theory of cointegration Pedroni (1999,2004)) for 12 MENA countries ( Middle East and North Africa) during the period 1990- 2014.The long-term relationships estimated by the modified least squares technique proposed by Pedroni (1996). Our results indicate that there is evidence for a bidirectionel causality between CO2 emissions and economic growth. Economic growth and trade openness are interdependent, it exist a bidirectionel causality. Also, we confirm a bidirectional causality among trade openness and financial development. The unidirectional causality of financial development on economic growth and openness to CO2 emissions trading is identified. Our empirical results also verified the existence of the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis by the causal link between GDP and environmental polution. Finally, panel causality verifies the existance of bidirectional relationship between economic growth(GDP), environmental degradation(CO2 emissions), financial development and trade openness. This empirical knowledge is of particular interest to policy makers as it helps us create sound economic policies to support economic development and improve environmental quality.
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ZAHIR, SALMA, KAUSER HAYAT i AFTAB HAIDER. "The Causality between Gross Fixed Capital Formation, Trade Deficit, Exchange Rate, and the Economic Growth of Pakistan". International Review of Management and Business Research 9, nr 4 (7.12.2020): 138–47. http://dx.doi.org/10.30543/9-4(2020)-13.
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The research paper studies the causal link between gross domestic product, gross fixed-capital formations, exchange rate, and trade deficits in Pakistan from 1986 to 2013 with time serial data. ADF and Phillip Perron tests are recycled for stationary and at the first difference, each variable is unified. According to the Johansen Co-integration test, the presence of longer-term Co-integration among variables is displayed, and the Error Correction model expresses that 49.27 % of short-term uncertainty is adjusted in long-term equilibrium. Moreover, the Granger causality test presented causality among the variables. While the conclusion showed that such variables have unidirectional causation. Keywords: Trade Deficit, Exchange Rate, Gross Fixed Capital Formation, Gross Domestic Product, ADF, Phillip Perron, Johansen Co-integration, Error Correction model, & Granger Causality test.
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Orhan, Ayhan, Derviş Kirikkaleli i Fatih Ayhan. "Analysis of Wavelet Coherence: Service Sector Index and Economic Growth in an Emerging Market". Sustainability 11, nr 23 (26.11.2019): 6684. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su11236684.
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The present study aims to shed some light on the causal link between the Service Sector Index in the Turkish stock market and economic growth using a wavelet coherence approach. Thus, the present study determines whether the Service Sector Index leads to economic growth in Turkey and/or vice versa. Based on our aim, we use the wavelet coherence approach, which allows us to capture long-run and short-run causal linkages between the Service Sector Index and economic growth in Turkey, since the approach combines both time domain causality and frequency domain causality tests. The findings from wavelet coherence reveal that there is one-way causality running from the Service Sector Index to economic growth in Turkey at different frequencies and different periods between 1997 and 2017.
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Pegkas, Panagiotis, i Constantinos Tsamadias. "Does formal education at all levels cause economic growth? Evidence from Greece". Review of Economic and Business Studies 8, nr 1 (1.06.2015): 9–32. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/rebs-2016-0013.
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AbstractThis study empirically investigates the link between the levels of formal education and economic growth in Greece during the period 1960-2009. The paper applies the Lucas approach (1988) and employs cointegration, error-correction models and estimates the effect of each educational level on economic growth. The empirical analysis reveals that there is a long-run relation between educational levels and gross domestic product. The overall results show that secondary and higher education has had a statistically significant positive impact on growth, while primary has not contributed to economic growth. The findings also suggest that there is evidence of unidirectional long-run causality running from primary education to growth, bidirectional long-run causality between secondary and growth, long-run and short-run causality running from higher education to economic growth.