Gotowa bibliografia na temat „Australian domestic money market”

Purpose – The purpose of the study was to devise an instrument, labelled the Fine Wine Instrument (FWI), to measure the fine wine behaviour of respondents and then use that base to segment the consumer sample. The behaviour of those respondents who scored highly on the FWI was examined in detail. Design/methodology/approach – An online survey collected quantitative information from a convenience sample of Australian wine consumers (n = 1,017). Using the FWI as the segmentation base, cluster analysis identified three segments of consumers, denoted “Wine Enthusiasts”, “Aspirants” and “No Frills” wine drinkers, and their respective wine-related behaviours were examined. Findings – The Wine Enthusiasts’ segment consumed more wine, spent more money on wine and were more knowledgeable about wine than the other two segments. The demographics of the Wine Enthusiasts’ segment indicated that the members were not consistent with the conventional view of wine connoisseurs, as many were under the age of 35. Their lifetime value to the wine industry was highlighted along with potential targeting strategies. Some structural elements of the Australian domestic wine market were also noted. Practical implications – A segmentation base of a wine market is presented, which the authors argue provides a more sophisticated analysis than other commonly used segmentation bases. Originality/value – This study was the first to segment the Australian market using the recently developed FWI. The study provides the latest information on this market and deeper consumer insights that may permit better business-to-consumer engagement.

Tanah Lot Tourism Attraction (TLTA) is located on the South Coast of Bali Island precisely in the area of Beraban Village, Kediri District, Tabanan Regency, Bali. This research is quantitative descriptive method which sample is chosen based on purposive sampling technique, foreign and also domestic tourists who visit at time total 337 respondents. The statistical analyzed indicated that the domestic visitor segment is higher than the foreign visitor segment, this also indicate that domestic visitor is a potential target market for the products produced by local entrepreneurs in TLTA. Survey based on demography variable shows that the number of female visitor are more compared to male, dominantly by age group from 21 to 30 years old and most of them are students, and respondents educational level visit to TLTA are dominantly bachelor graduates. The geography variable shows that tourists visit to TLTA dominantly by domestics, followed by South Korea, Australia, and other countries.The psychograph variable, shows that dominant tourist visit because sunset and the nature of beauty view offered by Tanah Lot and mostly are repeater guests, received information from many sources. Their visit duration mostly between one to two hours, mostly they visit by rented car in the afternoon for sunset and the total amount of money spent between fifty thousand to one hundred thousand Rupiah, also the total amount of money spent during their visit is dominantly between five hundred to one million Rupiah per day. Chi-Square Tests indicated that there is correlation between group age, tourist occupation, and education level toward the motivation of visit to TLTA.

Subject. The article discusses financial capital issues. Objectives. The study determines the consistency of the dynamics of the Russian financial capital components. Methods. The study is based on the systems approach and methods of statistical, neural network and cluster analysis. Results. I analyze the dynamics of rates, such as USD/RUB, RGBI, RTSI, SBER, IMOEX, and discovered the speculative behavior of financial capital holders (IMOEX, USD/RUB, SBER) in the domestic (RGBI) and external (RTSI) market. Analyzing the importance of growth rates of GDP and its constituents, I found the State prioritized the regulation of the GDP deflator (The Central Bank – inflation targeting), considering a growth in governmental expenditures and the decreased importance of growth rates of GDP and households’ consumption expenditures, as the import of goods and services gets more important. The high importance of rates of growth in the export of goods and services is identical to Australia, Estonia and Columbia. Corporate relationships of the Central Bank and financial corporations focus on the regulation of money supply and currency outside financial corporations and internal claims. The relationships strengthen as the monetary policy get more concentrated on net claims to the central government and inflation targeting. Conclusions and Relevance. The scope of consistency of trends in the Russian financial capital components allows public authorities to regulate a growth in the corporate relations of the Central Bank and financial corporations in order to curb the speculative behavior of financial capital holders. The findings hereof contribute to the knowledge and competence of officials of the Russian Government and the Federal Antimonopoly Services with respect to systemic decisions on control over financial transactions.

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the likely determinants of the demand for official international reserves (hereafter reserves) for India and China in the long run in a basic buffer stock model. The paper also examines the role of domestic money market disequilibrium in the short-run demand for official reserves for both the countries in a dynamic synthesis model. Design/methodology/approach The study used quarterly data for the time period 1993:Q1–2015:Q4. The long-run model is being estimated by following the Frenkel–Jovanovic (1981) buffer stock model and includes the determinants such as transaction motive variable (GDP or Imports), opportunity cost variable (domestic interest rate), precautionary motive variable (volatility of reserves) and exchange rate. The study also examined the role of domestic money market disequilibrium in addition to the above variables in the short-run reserve demand model. The money market disequilibrium term is expected to be negative and significant in the short run. The study employed autoregressive distributed lag bound testing approach to co-integration and unrestricted error-correction model (UECM) approach developed by Pesaran et al. (2001) for estimating the long-run and short-run models, respectively. Findings The co-integration test suggests the existence of long-run relationship between international reserves and its determinants. In the long run, all the variables are statistically significant with expected sign, except domestic interest rate variable for China. It is also found that, the money market disequilibrium term in the short run is negative and significant which validates that an excessive money demand (supply) induces an inflow (outflow) of international reserves for both India and China with a lag of four quarters. The recursive residual tests (CUSUM and CUSUMSQ) confirm the stability of both long-run and short-run reserve demand models. Practical implications The findings and policy implications of this study may be useful for the policy makers of the similar emerging economies for designing money and currency policies. Originality/value This paper is a comparative study which systematically analyzed the reserve demand behavior of the two emerging economies India and China. The study integrates the domestic money market with the international reserve demand behavior for these two economies.

This study empirically examined the effectiveness of money market instruments on Nigerian inflation rate. The objective is to investigate the existing relationship between money market instruments and Nigerian inflation rate, data was sourced from Central Bank of Nigeria statistical bulletin. Multivariate model were formulated having Inflation Rate (INFR) as the function of Percentage of Treasury Bills to Gross Domestic Product (TB/GDP), Percentage of Stabilization Securities to Gross Domestic Product (STS/GDP), Percentage of Treasury Certificate to Gross Domestic Product (TC/GDP), Percentage of Eligible Development Stock to Gross Domestic Product (EDS/GDP), Percentage of Central Bank of Nigeria Short Term Fund to Gross Domestic Product (CBNSF/GDP) and Percentage of Call Money Scheme to Gross Domestic Product (CMS/GDP). The Ordinary Least Square (OLS) properties of co integration, Augmented Dickey Fuller Unit Root, Granger Causality Test and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) were employed to determine the relationship between the money market instruments and Nigerian inflation rate. Findings revealed that money market instruments are statistically significant in explaining variation in Nigerian inflation rate. We therefore recommend that the money market should well be structured, properly managed and its operational efficiency enhanced to achieve the monetary policy objective of price stability.

The marketing of domestic crude oil has been regulated by the Federal Government since production began in the early 1960's. In late 1984 the Government decided, after an extensive review, to partially deregulate immediately and to move to a substantially deregulated domestic oil market by 1988.After only four months of the new arrangements the Government announced a further review claiming that changes in international and domestic market conditions had led to calls from the industry to accelerate the move to deregulation. The Government would also have been influenced by the public perception that rising petrol prices were a result of government policies.Deregulation would directly affect the prices and consumption patterns for domestic crude oils. Indirect effects would include changes to domestic oil exploration activity, the competitiveness of product imports, regional product prices, the viability of some Australian refineries and coastal shipping activity.The diverse positions taken during the mid 1985 review reflected differing assessments of the consequences of deregulation and differing impacts on interested parties. Large fuel users such as primary producers and motorists favoured deregulation in the hope of lower prices. Oil producers were split, with the small producers generally opposing deregulation and the two large producers favouring it under most conditions. Refiners too were split, with the majority favouring deregulation. Refinery and shipping unions were opposed for fear of job losses.The Government decided to halt the move toward deregulation but to review the position again in 1987. In preparation for that review the industry should work hard at improving and communicating its understanding of the complex implications of this vital issue.

This study aims to analyze determinants which might influenced yield of Indonesian Government Bond Denominated-Rupiah in primary market. We divide the determinant by three factors (i.e intrinsic factor, extrinsic domestic factor and extrinsic globar factor). Multiple regression using to analyze colinearity among variables in this study. The results showed that bond maturity, bond coupon rate, bond price in secondary market, bond performance in market, inflation rate, currency, money and stock domestic market condition, and money and bond global market condition are significantly affected Indonesian government bond yield in primary market.

This paper examines the empirical importance of late money on market efficiency in horse race gambling. Our inquiry into the effect of late money on parimutuel pools uses data from Australian thoroughbred horse races over the entire 2006 racing season and includes every race at all thoroughbred tracks. This amounts to 14,854 races with an average of 10.37 starters per race. The evidence overwhelmingly supports the hypotheses that late money is smart money and late money improves market efficiency.

This paper demonstrates the ability of a model, which simulates competition between airlines in a domestic aviation market, to accurately reproduce real-world behavior. The Australian market was chosen as a test case as it is a geographically isolated region with significant demand and complexity, including one of the busiest routes in the world, where connecting international passengers do not significantly skew the market. The model is based on an n-player noncooperative game, in which each airline represents a player within the game. The primary assumption is that each airline attempts to maximize profits by adjusting the decision variables of airfares, flight frequency, and choice of aircraft on routes within its network. The approach works iteratively, allowing each airline to respond to the decisions made by other airlines during each successive optimization. The model is said to reach convergence when there is no significant change in any airline’s profit from one iteration to the next. Once this occurs, the predictions of each airline’s decision variables can be compared with real data. The model gives highly detailed predictions of airline specific airfares, flight frequencies on segments, passenger flows, and airline market share, which strongly correlate with observed values.

This paper provides useful insights on the determinants of macroeconomic variables on Islamic stock index evidence from frontier market. The aims of this study is to examine the effect of macroeconomic variables namely gross domestic product (GDP), inflation (consumer price index), exchange rate (USD exchange rate), oil price (crude palm oil) and money supply (M2) on frontier market Islamic index (FMII). This study employs Fixed Effect (FE) model of 17 countries listed under FMII. The study cover a ten (10) years period from 2008 until 2017. The study have shown significant relationship between inflation, money supply and exchange rate with FMII and managed to reject null hypotheses for the three variables. Inflation and exchange rate is negatively related with FMII while money supply, gross domestic product and oil price is positively related to FMII. However, the study fails to find any significant relationship between gross domestic product and oil price with FMII. The findings of this study will provide better understanding on the frontier market and helps to improve their performance. Therefore, it can encourage countries in frontier market to be able to compete and achieve similar advancement as countries in developed and emerging market did.

This study explores the inter relationships between the nominal interest rates of Australia and its principal trading partners. The analysis focus on the short end of the yield curve --specifically, rates of up to one year to maturity. In essence, the study comprises a suite of essays, which together provide an overall understanding of the relevant relationship that is, in both depth and scope, greater than the sum of the individual essays. The inquiry begins with an investigation of the impact of the overnight information content of international interest rates upon the Australian domestic money market. The results indicate that the strongest information impact on Australian interest rates is from the overnight interest and exchange rates of the United States. This is followed, in the second essay, by an investigation of the relationship between domestically and internationally traded Australian dollar denominated, financial assets. The results indicate that a Euro-Australian dollar inter-bank deposit and Australian bank accepted bills are effectively the same assets. Based on this result the third essay investigates the extent to which the short-term nominal interest rates of Australia, the United Kingdom, the United States and Japan are consistent with the expectations theory of the interest rate term structure. The results indicate that nominal inter-bank deposit rates in all four currencies are broadly consistent with the expectations theory. In addition, two common stochastic trends are identified, which can be associated with the markets of the United States and Japan. The forth essay focuses on the bilateral relationships between the nominal interest rates of Australia, the United States, the United Kingdom and Japan, and aims at establishing the extent to which the observed data is consistent with interest rate parity conditions. It was found that, in the long run, and with some exceptions, there is strong support for all three of the usual parity conditions. These relationships are interpreted as a measure of the efficiency with which the interest rates are simultaneously determined across the four markets. The final essay brings together insights gained in the preceeding essays to help analysis the interactions between each of the four markets at each of the four maturities selected within the consistent framework of a single model. The results indicate that the system can be usefully conceptualised as interactions between two sub-systems. The first sub-system models the nexus between Australia and the United States, and the second sub-system, that between the United Kingdom and Japan. The interactions within and between these two sub-systems are found to change as the maturity increases. At the shortest maturity, Australian interest rates are directly affected by both sub-systems. In contrast, at the longest maturity, Australian interest rates anticipate those of the United States and are not directly affected by the second sub-system.

Економіку окремої країни повинні обслуговувати кілька систем переказу коштів, які відповідають потребам різних ринків і клієнтів. Завдяки конкуренції та чинникам економічного тиску виникає необхідність гнучкого реагування на зміну в економічних процесах. Конкурентна боротьба за ринки зумовила ризикованість та надмірну ускладненість фінансового бізнесу.

Understanding the needs of consumers is a fundamental principle of marketing and Shiraz is arguably the most important grape variety produced in Australia, as it is the variety most widely associated, both domestically and globally, with Australia’s wine industry. This three part project examined consumers in the Australian domestic wine market in respect of their liking of Australian Shiraz and provided up to date market intelligence on that market. The first stage of the project consisted of a study that segmented the Australian domestic market using a newly developed Fine Wine Instrument (FWI) that consisted of three variables, as the base. This instrument identified three segments in the market which were denoted: “Connoisseurs”; “Aspirants”; and “No Frills” wine consumers. The Connoisseur segment consumed more wine, spent more money on wine and was more knowledgeable about wine than the other segments identified in the market. The results demonstrated that this segment of consumers was important to the Australian wine industry, as they offered large potential lifetime earnings to the industry. This project also identified a number of stable segments within that market and provided updated information on the market. The next stage introduced the Shiraz variety into the project and was motivated by Wine Australia’s “Regional Heroes” brand segmentation. The aim of the project was to identify those sensory attributes that might differentiate Shiraz wines from a number of delimited Australian Shiraz producing regions. The study employed a number of wine experts to undertake a sorting task, where wines that were perceived as similar by the experts were sorted together in groups. If wines from a single region were perceived as similar, then they were sorted together. The data from this task identified three dimensions that separated the wines and these dimensions generally represented sensory attributes associated with Australian Shiraz. The wines also underwent sensory descriptive analysis which confirmed that the wines occupied diverse sensory spaces. However, identifying specific sensory attributes that differentiated wines from different regions was problematic and we concluded that any future studies of this type should concentrate on a single wine region, with a large cross section of wines from that region, rather than examining a number of wines from many regions. The last study combined elements of the previous two, where a diverse sub set of twelve of those Shiraz wines was tasted by a cohort of Australian Shiraz wine consumers and the consumers rated their acceptability, or liking, of each wine. Those consumers also completed a questionnaire so that they might be segmented using the FWI developed in the first study. The sensory data for each of the wines was married with the consumers’ acceptability data and the sensory attributes that drove the liking (and disliking) of the wines were identified. A similar exercise was undertaken with a cohort of wine experts and the results compared. The results demonstrated that as consumers’ wine knowledge and wine involvement increased, their wine preferences mimicked those of the wine experts and they preferred more elegant and complex wines. By comparison, the consumers with lower levels of wine knowledge and involvement tended to prefer wines that demonstrated more one dimensional fruit and oak characters. This technique of marrying sensory with consumer data can be transferred to any wine style and identified consumer segment. The project provides the wine industry with tools that might enable producers to better identify and meet the needs of their consumers. This, in turn, might improve their profitability and increase consumer satisfaction, both admirable goals.
Thesis (Ph.D.) -- University of Adelaide, School of Agriculture, Food and Wine, 2013

Portfolio theory, created by economists, was a breakthrough in financial economics. This theory looks at the stock market as a whole and analyses how, for a given rate of expected return, assets can be invested efficiently and how risk can be minimized. An effectively diversified portfolio minimizes the unsystematic risk which is affected by factors that are specific to the individual firms and, to some extent, the industry in which the firm operates. The unsystematic risk is, therefore, manageable by diversification. The systematic risk, however, cannot be managed by a simple approach of diversification. Despite the fact that there are many other factors contributing to the systematic risk of a portfolio, the risk and return of a diversified portfolio is mainly affected by domestic and overseas economic factors.

The thesis examined the comprehensive causal relationship between the banking sector, stock market development and economic growth in a multi-variate framework using Zimbabwean time series data from 1988 to 2015. Three banking sector development proxies (total financial sector credit, banking credit to private sector and broad money M3) and three stock market development proxies (stock market capitalization, value traded and turnover ratio) were employed to estimate both long and short run relationships between banking sector, stock market and economic growth in Zimbabwe. The study employs the vector error correction model (VECM) as the main estimation technique and the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach as a robustness testing technique. Results showed that in Zimbabwe a significant causal relationship from banking sector and stock market development to economic growth exists in the long run without any feedback effects. In the short run, however, a negative yet statistically significant causal relationship runs from economic growth to banking sector and stock market development in Zimbabwe. The study further concludes that there is a unidirectional causal relationship running from stock market development to banking sector development in Zimbabwe in both short and long run periods. Nonetheless this relationship between banking sector and stock markets has been found to be more significant in the short run than in the long run. The thesis adopts the complementary view and recommends for the spontaneity implementation of monetary policies as the economy grows. Monetary authorities should thus formulate policies to promote both banks and stock markets with corresponding growth in Zimbabwe’s economy.
Business Management
M. Com. (Business Management)

This chapter argues that the utilitarian approach to money is a theoretical and empirical straitjacket. Money belongs to the market, but not exclusively so. And while money is indeed an objective means of rational calculation, it is not only that. It first considers the traditional interpretation of money, that is, as “market money,” and then proposes an alternative model of “special monies” that incorporates the social and symbolic significance of money. Next, it presents a historical case study of domestic money as one example of a special money. It argues that domestic money—which includes a wife's money, husband's money, and children's money—is a special category of money in the modern world. The discussion focuses on the changing meaning of married women's money between the 1870s and 1930s, showing how this money, whether given by the husband or earned in the household or in the labor market, was marked as a different form of currency from an ordinary dollar.

The purpose of this chapter is to empirically examine firms’ internal and external factors that can affect their foreign market mode choice. The model is comprised of internal factors such as control, domestic business experience, and industry type; and external factors in terms of culture of foreign markets and intensity of competition. A mail-out survey to Australian firms involved in international business generated 315 useful responses. The hypotheses were tested using direct logistic regression analysis. Among the five variables, industry type, domestic business experience, and intensity of competition were found statistically significant. While industry type and domestic business experience encourage non-export mode, intensity of competition favours export mode. The major contributions of this study are the discovery of a variable, domestic business experience that is new in the literature; and the reinforcement of the importance of examining both internal and external factors when making a foreign market entry mode choice.

Chapter 3 draws on the perspective towards the local level developed in chapter 2 and discusses how local responses to EU policies tools can be grasped conceptually. By building particularly on the political-science Europeanisation literature and on sociological field approaches, a specific bottom-up perspective will be presented which puts analytical emphasis on the local contextual conditions. The main argument is that local contexts shape the way how actors respond to the ESF as a financial opportunity, and how this shapes local labour market policies. The Europeanisation literature and the field approach provide the background for the development of conditional hypotheses to be tested empirically in later chapters.

This chapter examines how Australians learned to grow grapes and make wine, and the advances in wine-making technologies linked to dry table wine production. The Australian wine industry dates from the end of the eighteenth century, but as in California and Argentina, it was only in the two or three decades prior to the First World War that it became commercially important. The chapter then considers the problems of vertical coordination, or “cooperation” as contemporaries called it, between grape growing and wine making. Finally, the chapter shows that the Australian commodity chain differed from California in that it was market driven from Britain and explains why attempts to create an alternative Australian distribution network failed.

This chapter identifies cryptocurrencies and other virtual currencies as global currencies that could have a major impact on national jurisdictions. Regulation concerning cryptocurrencies can be described in the terms of the ‘double movement’ that Karl Polanyi identified for the expansion of the market society in the nineteenth and twentieth centuries. Cryptocurrencies have been developed by anti-establishment individuals and groups, and other opponents of the global financial system that—in Polanyi’s terms—belong to a collectivist counter-movement. The effect they have produced, though, is rather to expand global markets and the market system. This has spurred a counter-movement to the counter-movement, or what could be called the ‘anti-countermovement’. The response of the anti-countermovement to the expansion and influence of the global currencies is paradoxical, if not schizophrenic. The anti-countermovement treats global currencies both as currencies and as a technology. This has led to various regulatory measures in different jurisdictions. When viewed as currency, cryptocurrencies are regulated both as money and commodities, leading to an indifferent approach to their regulation or a command-and-control approach or various intermediate approaches. When viewed as a technology, different jurisdictions have taken an enabling approach to the regulation of cryptocurrencies by establishing ‘innovation hubs’ and ‘regulatory sandboxes’ for FinTech companies. This chapter concludes by discussing the dangers of embedding cryptocurrencies through enabling them, namely the problem of more finance, and possibly an internal clash of domestic agencies. The way to mitigate the dangers of embedding through enabling is by regulating the new cryptocurrency intermediaries.

This chapter provides an outline of the endogenous growth theory. Endogenous or modern growth theory argues that financial intermediaries and securities markets allow business owners and investors to undertake innovative activities, which affects economic growth. Furthermore, other groups of studies that are concerned with issues like money creation, credit constraints, government interventions, and market failure are discussed in this chapter in parallel with endogenous growth theory. Later in the chapter, releasing the process of finance in different schools of thought including neo-classical, monetarist, Keynesians, and post-Keynesians is addressed. The discussion in the chapter ends with a review of the most commonly used indicators of financial market development, including but not limited to monetisation ratio, domestic credit availability, and stock market capitalisation.

The Australian timber industry generated $23.1b in revenue in 2019–2020, contributing $7.2b to Australia’s gross domestic product. Total Australian timber export in 2019–2020 was estimated at over $3b, with log exports of approximately $650 m. Major export destinations are China, Japan, and New Zealand, with China importing over $1.6b of Australian timber products. An effective two-way tracing system will help secure product export to these major trading partners by eliminating product rejections due to a lack of certification, treatment, and pest management traceability, and enhancing the certification of product performance and compliance of imported structural and non-structural products. An opportunity exists to promote the development of proposed tracing systems to major import trading partners as a means of proving product integrity and maintaining market share as Australia continues to eliminate practices that facilitate illegal logging processes. This review aims to highlight the need for a national product tracing system in place for the Australian timber industry. This review aims to present information about current and potential future technologies that the timber industry can use across the supply chain to trace and monitor product quality and origin.

Our starting point is the definition and classification of investments, both financial and accounting. Thus, in a financial sense, an investment represents the change of an existing and available amount of money, with the hope of obtaining a higher but probable income in the future. In the accounting sense, an investment is the allocation of an amount available for the purchase of an asset, which will determine the future financial flows of income and expenses. Investments can be classified into two categories: domestic investments - consist of the allocation of capital for the purchase of machines, equipment, constructions, licenses, patents, etc. Their purpose can be to reduce costs, increase production, improve quality, increase market share, etc.; foreign investments - consist of capital investments in shares in other companies. They are also called financial investments and aim to increase the value of the company and diversify sources of income. We also analyze in this article the investment decision. The investment decision is the most important financial decision which a manager has to make. An investment usually involves allocating large sums of money in the long run, with a relatively high degree of risk. We also present and analyze both the stages of establishing an investment decision and the methods of evaluating an investment project. The article also presents management elements regarding the investment recovery term; discounted net value method, investment risk assessment.

Abstract The oil industry is clearly the mainstay of the Nigerian economy, with revenues from the industry accounting for over 80% of the nation's foreign exchange as well as over 80% of GDP. Therefore, the importance of the petroleum industry to Nigeria's development and economic strength cannot be over stressed. This paper discusses the deregulation of the downstream sector of the Nigerian petroleum industry with emphasis on product pump price. Over the years it has been observed that despite the large volumes of revenue coming from the petroleum industry, the price of petroleum products continues in Nigeria continues to rise even with huge amounts of money spent on subsidizing product pump price to keep them affordable to the Nigerian people. The paper tries to analyse the concept of deregulation and how a well-planned and deregulation policy can be effected to achieved the desired goals of product availability and minimal pump prices. It proposes that a truly and fully deregulated downstream will not necessarily result in product pump prices that are lower than the current both in the short or long terms, but in a competitive market with many players compete resulting in product availability and competitive pricing. It puts forward that the government would have to put in place measures to curb corruption and collusion which might disparage on the successful deregulation of the subsector. It proposes that if the deregulation of the downstream is to yield best outcomes especially in product pump price then having an effective domestic refining capacity is very imperative which would include revamping the state owned refineries, issuing licenses’ for the construction of new refineries and operating them optimally. It recommends that the deregulation of the downstream must be gradual in order to achieve its desired goals

In order to guarantee future supplies, PETROBRAS is deploying the Gas Production Anticipation Plan – PLANGAS which will increase domestic gas supply to the South-South East regions. Mexilha˜o Field is considered strategically for the Brazilian market gas supply chain, as it is one of the five production complexes to be installed at Santos Basin and have production forecast for up to 15 million m3 of gas per day and twenty thousand barrels per day of natural gas condensate. Mexilha˜o platform - PMXL-1 will be installed at 172 meters water, will export the gas production through 34 inches pipeline with 146 kilometers of extension from the off-shore unit up to an on-shore gas treatment facility, called Unidade de Tratamento de Gas Monteiro Lobato - UTGCA at Caraguatatuba, Sa˜o Paulo. The Gas Treatment Plant will have a processing capacity of 15 million m 3 per day of gas on its first stage, and will produce, as end products specified natural gas for consuming, liquefied natural gas (LGN) and the condensates, such as C5+. After processed in the UTGCA, the natural gas will be dispatched through a 26 inches pipeline up to a future Taubate´ Compression Station at Taubate´, SP, to be connected to a main gas pipeline called GASTAU. This 26″ pipeline is about 100 kilometers long, from Caraguatatuba to Taubate´. This paper intent to present the implementation of such enterprise, where it is affecting at least three different segments within PETROBRAS. The main challenge will be to integrate different requirements and specifications from those three segments and their supply chain, in ways that the overall figure does not impact the enterprise and the time schedules, requirements and operation wise work. Those three segments E&P, Gas and Energy BU, Transport, will also interact with a fourth player, PETROBRAS Engineering department, responsible to contract the engineering design, construction and assembly of all parts, following each segment standards. The main goal of such work is to achieve a process data real time collection, visualization and operation, coming from different sources as gas pipelines, process operations and measurement, with efficiency and reliability to fulfill each segment requirements in an integrated way that no duplication or waste of money and time occurs.

From this edition, the Financial Stability Report will have fewer pages with some changes in its structure. The purpose of this change is to present the most relevant facts of the financial system and their implications on the financial stability. This allows displaying the analysis more concisely and clearly, as it will focus on describing the evolution of the variables that have the greatest impact on the performance of the financial system, for estimating then the effect of a possible materialization of these risks on the financial health of the institutions. The changing dynamics of the risks faced by the financial system implies that the content of the Report adopts this new structure; therefore, some analyses and series that were regularly included will not necessarily be in each issue. However, the statistical annex that accompanies the publication of the Report will continue to present the series that were traditionally included, regardless of whether or not they are part of the content of the Report. In this way we expect to contribute in a more comprehensive way to the study and analysis of the stability of the Colombian financial system. Executive Summary During the first half of 2015, the main advanced economies showed a slow recovery on their growth, while emerging economies continued with their slowdown trend. Domestic demand in the United States allowed for stabilization on its average growth for the first half of the year, while other developed economies such as the United Kingdom, the euro zone, and Japan showed a more gradual recovery. On the other hand, the Chinese economy exhibited the lowest growth rate in five years, which has resulted in lower global dynamism. This has led to a fall in prices of the main export goods of some Latin American economies, especially oil, whose price has also responded to a larger global supply. The decrease in the terms of trade of the Latin American economies has had an impact on national income, domestic demand, and growth. This scenario has been reflected in increases in sovereign risk spreads, devaluations of stock indices, and depreciation of the exchange rates of most countries in the region. For Colombia, the fall in oil prices has also led to a decline in the terms of trade, resulting in pressure on the dynamics of national income. Additionally, the lower demand for exports helped to widen the current account deficit. This affected the prospects and economic growth of the country during the first half of 2015. This economic context could have an impact on the payment capacity of debtors and on the valuation of investments, affecting the soundness of the financial system. However, the results of the analysis featured in this edition of the Report show that, facing an adverse scenario, the vulnerability of the financial system in terms of solvency and liquidity is low. The analysis of the current situation of credit institutions (CI) shows that growth of the gross loan portfolio remained relatively stable, as well as the loan portfolio quality indicators, except for microcredit, which showed a decrease in these indicators. Regarding liabilities, traditional sources of funding have lost market share versus non-traditional ones (bonds, money market operations and in the interbank market), but still represent more than 70%. Moreover, the solvency indicator remained relatively stable. As for non-banking financial institutions (NBFI), the slowdown observed during the first six months of 2015 in the real annual growth of the assets total, both in the proprietary and third party position, stands out. The analysis of the main debtors of the financial system shows that indebtedness of the private corporate sector has increased in the last year, mostly driven by an increase in the debt balance with domestic and foreign financial institutions. However, the increase in this latter source of funding has been influenced by the depreciation of the Colombian peso vis-à-vis the US dollar since mid-2014. The financial indicators reflected a favorable behavior with respect to the historical average, except for the profitability indicators; although they were below the average, they have shown improvement in the last year. By economic sector, it is noted that the firms focused on farming, mining and transportation activities recorded the highest levels of risk perception by credit institutions, and the largest increases in default levels with respect to those observed in December 2014. Meanwhile, households have shown an increase in the financial burden, mainly due to growth in the consumer loan portfolio, in which the modalities of credit card, payroll deductible loan, revolving and vehicle loan are those that have reported greater increases in risk indicators. On the side of investments that could be affected by the devaluation in the portfolio of credit institutions and non-banking financial institutions (NBFI), the largest share of public debt securities, variable-yield securities and domestic private debt securities is highlighted. The value of these portfolios fell between February and August 2015, driven by the devaluation in the market of these investments throughout the year. Furthermore, the analysis of the liquidity risk indicator (LRI) shows that all intermediaries showed adequate levels and exhibit a stable behavior. Likewise, the fragility analysis of the financial system associated with the increase in the use of non-traditional funding sources does not evidence a greater exposure to liquidity risk. Stress tests assess the impact of the possible joint materialization of credit and market risks, and reveal that neither the aggregate solvency indicator, nor the liquidity risk indicator (LRI) of the system would be below the established legal limits. The entities that result more individually affected have a low share in the total assets of the credit institutions; therefore, a risk to the financial system as a whole is not observed. José Darío Uribe Governor

In the second quarter, annual inflation (9.67%), the technical staff’s projections and its expectations continued to increase, remaining above the target. International cost shocks, accentuated by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, have been more persistent than projected, thus contributing to higher inflation. The effects of indexation, higher than estimated excess demand, a tighter labor market, inflation expectations that continue to rise and currently exceed 3%, and the exchange rate pressures add to those described above. High core inflation measures as well as in the producer price index (PPI) across all baskets confirm a significant spread in price increases. Compared to estimates presented in April, the new forecast trajectory for headline and core inflation increased. This was partly the result of greater exchange rate pressure on prices, and a larger output gap, which is expected to remain positive for the remainder of 2022 and which is estimated to close towards yearend 2023. In addition, these trends take into account higher inflation rate indexation, more persistent above-target inflation expectations, a quickening of domestic fuel price increases due to the correction of lags versus the parity price and higher international oil price forecasts. The forecast supposes a good domestic supply of perishable foods, although it also considers that international prices of processed foods will remain high. In terms of the goods sub-basket, the end of the national health emergency implies a reversal of the value-added tax (VAT) refund applied to health and personal hygiene products, resulting in increases in the prices of these goods. Alternatively, the monetary policy adjustment process and the moderation of external shocks would help inflation and its expectations to begin to decrease over time and resume their alignment with the target. Thus, the new projection suggests that inflation could remain high for the second half of 2022, closing at 9.7%. However, it would begin to fall during 2023, closing the year at 5.7%. These forecasts are subject to significant uncertainty, especially regarding the future behavior of external cost shocks, the degree of indexation of nominal contracts and decisions made regarding the domestic price of fuels. Economic activity continues to outperform expectations, and the technical staff’s growth projections for 2022 have been revised upwards from 5% to 6.9%. The new forecasts suggest higher output levels that would continue to exceed the economy’s productive capacity for the remainder of 2022. Economic growth during the first quarter was above that estimated in April, while economic activity indicators for the second quarter suggest that the GDP could be expected to remain high, potentially above that of the first quarter. Domestic demand is expected to maintain a positive dynamic, in particular, due to the household consumption quarterly growth, as suggested by vehicle registrations, retail sales, credit card purchases and consumer loan disbursement figures. A slowdown in the machinery and equipment imports from the levels observed in March contrasts with the positive performance of sales and housing construction licenses, which indicates an investment level similar to that registered for the first three months of the year. International trade data suggests the trade deficit would be reduced as a consequence of import levels that would be lesser than those observed in the first quarter, and stable export levels. For the remainder of the year and 2023, a deceleration in consumption is expected from the high levels seen during the first half of the year, partially as a result of lower repressed demand, tighter domestic financial conditions and household available income deterioration due to increased inflation. Investment is expected to continue its slow recovery while remaining below pre-pandemic levels. The trade deficit is expected to tighten due to projected lower domestic demand dynamics, and high prices of oil and other basic goods exported by the country. Given the above, economic growth in the second quarter of 2022 would be 11.5%, and for 2022 and 2023 an annual growth of 6.9% and 1.1% is expected, respectively. Currently, and for the remainder of 2022, the output gap would be positive and greater than that estimated in April, and prices would be affected by demand pressures. These projections continue to be affected by significant uncertainty associated with global political tensions, the expected adjustment of monetary policy in developed countries, external demand behavior, changes in country risk outlook, and the future developments in domestic fiscal policy, among others. The high inflation levels and respective expectations, which exceed the target of the world's main central banks, largely explain the observed and anticipated increase in their monetary policy interest rates. This environment has tempered the growth forecast for external demand. Disruptions in value chains, rising international food and energy prices, and expansionary monetary and fiscal policies have contributed to the rise in inflation and above-target expectations seen by several of Colombia’s main trading partners. These cost and price shocks, heightened by the effects of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, have been more prevalent than expected and have taken place within a set of output and employment recovery, variables that in some countries currently equal or exceed their projected long-term levels. In response, the U.S. Federal Reserve accelerated the pace of the benchmark interest rate increase and rapidly reduced liquidity levels in the money market. Financial market actors expect this behavior to continue and, consequently, significantly increase their expectations of the average path of the Fed's benchmark interest rate. In this setting, the U.S. dollar appreciated versus the peso in the second quarter and emerging market risk measures increased, a behavior that intensified for Colombia. Given the aforementioned, for the remainder of 2022 and 2023, the Bank's technical staff increased the forecast trajectory for the Fed's interest rate and reduced the country's external demand growth forecast. The projected oil price was revised upward over the forecast horizon, specifically due to greater supply restrictions and the interruption of hydrocarbon trade between the European Union and Russia. Global geopolitical tensions, a tightening of monetary policy in developed economies, the increase in risk perception for emerging markets and the macroeconomic imbalances in the country explain the increase in the projected trajectory of the risk premium, its trend level and the neutral real interest rate1. Uncertainty about external forecasts and their consequent impact on the country's macroeconomic scenario remains high, given the unpredictable evolution of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, geopolitical tensions, the degree of the global economic slowdown and the effect the response to recent outbreaks of the pandemic in some Asian countries may have on the world economy. This macroeconomic scenario that includes high inflation, inflation forecasts, and expectations above 3% and a positive output gap suggests the need for a contractionary monetary policy that mitigates the risk of the persistent unanchoring of inflation expectations. In contrast to the forecasts of the April report, the increase in the risk premium trend implies a higher neutral real interest rate and a greater prevailing monetary stimulus than previously estimated. For its part, domestic demand has been more dynamic, with a higher observed and expected output level that exceeds the economy’s productive capacity. The surprising accelerations in the headline and core inflation reflect stronger and more persistent external shocks, which, in combination with the strength of aggregate demand, indexation, higher inflation expectations and exchange rate pressures, explain the upward projected inflation trajectory at levels that exceed the target over the next two years. This is corroborated by the inflation expectations of economic analysts and those derived from the public debt market, which continued to climb and currently exceed 3%. All of the above increase the risk of unanchoring inflation expectations and could generate widespread indexation processes that may push inflation away from the target for longer. This new macroeconomic scenario suggests that the interest rate adjustment should continue towards a contractionary monetary policy landscape. 1.2. Monetary policy decision Banco de la República’s Board of Directors (BDBR), at its meetings in June and July 2022, decided to continue adjusting its monetary policy. At its June meeting, the BDBR decided to increase the monetary policy rate by 150 basis points (b.p.) and its July meeting by majority vote, on a 150 b.p. increase thereof at its July meeting. Consequently, the monetary policy interest rate currently stands at 9.0% . 1 The neutral real interest rate refers to the real interest rate level that is neither stimulative nor contractionary for aggregate demand and, therefore, does not generate pressures that lead to the close of the output gap. In a small, open economy like Colombia, this rate depends on the external neutral real interest rate, medium-term components of the country risk premium, and expected depreciation. Box 1: A Weekly Indicator of Economic Activity for Colombia Juan Pablo Cote Carlos Daniel Rojas Nicol Rodriguez Box 2: Common Inflationary Trends in Colombia Carlos D. Rojas-Martínez Nicolás Martínez-Cortés Franky Juliano Galeano-Ramírez Box 3: Shock Decomposition of 2021 Forecast Errors Nicolás Moreno Arias