Letteratura scientifica selezionata sul tema "Telephone surveys Data processing"

Introduction The Survey on Living with Chronic Diseases in Canada—hypertension component (SLCDC-H) is a 20-minute cross-sectional telephone survey on hypertension diagnosis and management. Sampled from the 2008 Canadian Community Health Survey (CCHS), the SLCDC-H includes Canadians (aged ≥ 20 years) with self-reported hypertension from the ten provinces. Methods The questionnaire was developed by Delphi technique, externally reviewed and qualitatively tested. Statistics Canada performed sampling strategies, recruitment, data collection and processing. Proportions were weighted to represent the Canadian population, and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were derived by bootstrap method. Results Compared with the CCHS population reporting hypertension, the SLCDC-H sample (n = 6142) is slightly younger (SLCDC-H mean age: 61.2 years, 95% CI: 60.8–61.6; CCHS mean age: 62.2 years, 95% CI: 61.8–62.5), has more post-secondary school graduates (SLCDC-H: 52.0%, 95% CI: 49.7%–54.2%; CCHS: 47.5%, 95% CI: 46.1%–48.9%) and has fewer respondents on hypertension medication (SLCDC-H: 82.5%, 95% CI: 80.9%–84.1%; CCHS: 88.6%, 95% CI: 87.7%-89.6%). Conclusion Overall, the 2009 SLCDC-H represents its source population and provides novel, comprehensive data on the diagnosis and management of hypertension. The survey has been adapted to other chronic conditions—diabetes, asthma/chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and neurological conditions. The questionnaire is available on the Statistics Canada website; descriptive results have been disseminated by the Public Health Agency of Canada.

(1) Background: The COVID-19 pandemic poses substantial threats to Latinx farmworkers and other immigrants in food production and processing. Classified as essential, such workers cannot shelter at home. Therefore, knowledge and preventive behaviors are important to reduce COVID-19 spread in the community. (2) Methods: Respondents for 67 families with at least one farmworker (FWF) and 38 comparable families with no farmworkers (nonFWF) in North Carolina completed a telephone survey in May 2020. The survey queried knowledge of COVID-19, perceptions of its severity, self-efficacy, and preventive behaviors. Detailed data were collected to document household members’ social interaction and use of face coverings. (3) Results: Knowledge of COVID-19 and prevention methods was high in both groups, as was its perceived severity. NonFWF had higher self-efficacy for preventing infection. Both groups claimed to practice preventive behaviors, though FWF emphasized social avoidance and nonFWF emphasized personal hygiene. Detailed social interactions showed high rates of inter-personal contact at home, at work, and in the community with more mask use in nonFWF than FWF. (4) Conclusions: Despite high levels of knowledge and perceived severity for COVID-19, these immigrant families were engaged in frequent interpersonal contact that could expose community members and themselves to COVID-19.

BackgroundThere have been concerns about the quality and safety of NHS hospital services since the turn of the millennium. This study investigated the progress that acute NHS hospital trusts have made in developing and using technology infrastructures to enable them to monitor quality and safety following the publication in 2013 of the second Francis report on the scandal at Mid Staffordshire NHS Foundation Trust (The Mid Staffordshire NHS Foundation Trust Public Inquiry. Chaired by Sir Robert Francis QC.Report of the Mid Staffordshire NHS Foundation Trust Public Inquiry. HC 898. London: The Stationery Office; 2013).MethodsA telephone survey of 15 acute NHS trusts in the Yorkshire and the Humber region, and a review of board papers of all acute NHS trusts in England for January 2015, were undertaken. The telephone survey was used to identify trusts for a larger field study, which was undertaken in four acute NHS trusts between April 2015 and September 2016. The methods included the direct observation of the use of whiteboards and other technologies on two wards in each trust, an observation of board quality committees, semistructured interviews and an analysis of the quality and safety data in board papers. Published sources about national and local agencies were reviewed to identify the trust quality and safety data that these agencies accessed and used. An interview programme was also undertaken with those organisations. The Biography of Artefacts approach was used to analyse the data.FindingsThe data and technology infrastructures within trusts had developed over many years. The overall design had been substantially determined by national agencies, and was geared to data processing: capturing and validating data for submission to national agencies. Trust boards had taken advantage of these data and used them to provide assurance about quality and safety. Less positively, the infrastructures were fragmented, with different technologies used to handle different quality and safety data. Real-time management systems on wards, including electronic whiteboards and mobile devices, were used and valued by nurses and other staff. The systems support the proactive management of clinical risks. These developments have occurred within a broad context, with trusts focusing on improving the quality and safety of services and publishing far more data on their performance than they did just 3 years earlier. Trust-level data suggest that quality and safety improved at all four trusts between 2013 and 2016. Our findings indicate that the technology infrastructures contributed to these improvements. There remains considerable scope to rationalise those infrastructures.LimitationsThe four trusts in the main study were, in part, purposively selected, and deliberately biased towards sites that had made progress with designing and deploying real-time ward management systems. This limits the generalisability of the study. The study focused more on the work of nurses and nurse managers, and has relatively little to say about the experiences of doctors or allied health professionals.Future workFuture research might focus on the effects of mobile technologies and electronic whiteboards on acute wards, the value of current national data returns, and the uses and value of trust data warehouses.FundingThe National Institute for Health Research Health Services and Delivery Research programme.

During 2016, BHP committed to produce a petroleum systems model for the complete Exmouth Sub-basin area; such a model would require knowledge of the sub-basin’s evolution through time and a uniquely qualified team to deliver within the agreed time frame. Existing seismic coverage rarely illuminated the deepest portion of the basin; however, through a collaboration with WesternGeco Multiclient, a basin-wide broad-band 3D seismic survey was acquired to underpin the new study to ensure its success. To facilitate this acquisition and the development of the petroleum systems model, BHP and WesternGeco Multiclient created a virtual world-wide team to combine their expertise of seismic acquisition and processing, seismic and potential field interpretation, geochemistry and basin modelling. Although the work was coordinated in Perth (WA, Australia), team members were located in Australia, Europe and the US, where particular specific expertise was located. Both companies made a commitment before the commencement of the project to have open exchange of data, interpretations and knowledge transfer, with one project coordinator. Although individual contributors were located in Australia, Europe and the US, monthly video or telephone coordination meetings combined with weekly meetings between individual specialists, as needed, allowed for the project to be completed to the highest technical quality within the scheduled time frame. The collaborative interpretation from this new seismic data and the resulting petroleum system model has created significant value for both companies, with insights benefiting the industry as a whole as a result of this redefined relationship between company and vendor.

With the determination of the number of new innovative startups businesses, the situation is even more complicated, not only in our country, but also in most countries of the world. In the proposed work, the author made an attempt to implement one of the possible approaches to introducing transparency – an assessment of each of the segments of the startup-launches ecosystem separately. The paper gives the results of study on the evaluation the launch indicators of new startups in the Russian venture market. The article identifies the segments of the venture ecosystem that are directly involved in the launch of new startups. The study obtained an estimate of the number of startups, small and medium-sized companies as well as entrepreneurial startups. To characterize the number of new startups, the author introduces the term performance of segments of the ecosystem of innovative startups. This indicator allows you to use the quantitative characteristics of individual segments and compare them with each other. To obtain quantitative values of newly launched startups, the author conducted a selective telephone survey of representatives of these segments of the ecosystem and collected official data published on the Internet. The author carried out the processing of some data on the basis of the statistics of median values of the estimate of the number of new startups that started sales during 2019. The author collected data for 2020 from secondary sources. The study showed that 4,817 new startups with signs of innovation were launched in Russia in 2020, and an increase of 26 % compared to the previous year. The estimates obtained do not contradict with the published data on the state of the venture industry during the pandemic.

During 1988, more than 40 state health departments conducted telephone surveys to obtain state-specific population estimates of the prevalence of adult health behaviors and health practices. However, the comparability of estimates obtained from these telephone surveys with more expensive in-person surveys has not been assessed in an applied setting. This study compared the prevalence estimates of smoking and binge drinking obtained from a telephone survey (N = 1,492) with an in-person survey (N = 2,802) which were conducted by the state of Michigan during 1982–1983. Although the standard errors for the differences in the estimates for the two surveys were relatively large, the actual differences were consistently small within most age-, sex-, and education-specific groups. Despite certain limitations, telephone surveys provide a reasonable alternative to in-person surveys for estimating the prevalence of health behaviors. The data obtained from these surveys are being used to set state health objectives, to plan statewide health promotion programs, and to support public health legislation.

Abstract Until quite recently, telephone surveys have typically relied on landline telephone numbers. However, with the increasing popularity and affordability of mobile phones, there has been a surge in households that do not have landline connections. Additionally, there has been a decline in the response rates and population coverage of landline telephone surveys, creating a challenge to collecting representative social data. Dual-frame telephone surveys that use both landline and mobile phone sampling frames can overcome the incompleteness of landline-only telephone sampling. However, surveying mobile phone users introduces new complexities in sampling, nonresponse measurement and statistical weighting. This article examines these issues and illustrates the consequences of failing to include mobile-phone-only users in telephone surveys using data from Australia. Results show that there are significant differences in estimates of populations’ characteristics when using information solely from the landline or mobile telephone sample. These biases in the population estimates are significantly reduced when data from the mobile and landline samples are combined and appropriate dual-frame survey estimators are used. The optimal choice of a dual-frame estimation strategy depends on the availability of good-quality information that can account for the differential patterns of nonresponse by frame.

AbstractWith declining response rates and challenges of using RDD sampling for telephone surveys, collecting data from address-based samples has become more attractive. Two approaches are doing telephone interviews at telephone numbers matched to addresses and asking those at sampled addresses to call into an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system to answer questions. This study used in-person interviewing to evaluate the effects of nonresponse and problems matching telephone numbers when telephone and IVR were used as the initial modes of data collection. The survey questions were selected from major US federal surveys covering a variety of topics. Both nonresponse and, for telephone, inability to find matches result in important nonresponse error for nearly half the measures across all topics, even after adjustments to fit the known demographic characteristics of the residents. Producing credible estimates requires using supplemental data collection strategies to reduce error from nonresponse.

IntroductionAlcohol use disorder (AUD) is a major public health concern worldwide. In France, only 10% of people with AUD (PWAUD) receive medical care. General practitioners (GP) are one of the main entry points for AUD care. The present ongoing study, entitled ASIA (Access to Care and Indifference toward Alcohol,Accès aux Soins et Indifference à l’Alcoolin French), aims to improve knowledge about factors associated with access to care for AUD by exploring related GP and PWAUD practices, experiences and perceptions.Methods and analysisThe ASIA project is an ongoing cross-sectional multisite study based on a complementary mixed-method approach (quantitative and qualitative) using a convergent parallel design. The double-perspective design of the study will enable us to collect and compare data regarding both PWAUD and GP points of view. For the PWAUD quantitative study, 260 PWAUD will be interviewed using a telephone-based questionnaire. For the qualitative study, 36 PWAUD have already been interviewed. The GP quantitative study will include 100 GP in a 15 min survey. Fifteen GP have already participated in semistructured interviews for the qualitative study. Logistic regression will be used to identify predictors for access to care. With respect to data analyses, qualitative interviews will be analysed using semantic analysis while quantitative logistic regression will be used for quantitative interviews.Ethics and disseminationThis study was approved by the CNIL (French National Commission on Informatics and Liberties) (approval reference number: C16-10, date of approval: 17 July 2017), the CCTIRS (Advisory Committee on Information Processing in Material Research in the Field of Health) and the CEEI (Evaluation and Ethics Committee) (approval reference number: 16–312, date of approval: 8 July 2016) of INSERM (French National Institute of Health and Medical Research). Results from ASIA will be disseminated in peer-reviewed publications, conference presentations, reports and in a PhD thesis.

The importance of power is underlined by many scientists who view it as a key behavioural construct. Power distinguishes itself as an effective tool in coordinating and promoting harmonious relationships, solving conflicts, and enhancing performance. An important challenge is to find out what role power plays in managing supply chain networks, paying specific attention to its effects on coordination and cooperation. The aim of our work is to investigate the role of power in supply chain networks in order to work out a strategy that enables supply chain managers to select an effective mix of power mechanisms. We critically examine the existing literature and elaborate on the role of power in supply chain relationships. We work out and test a theoretical model of the effects of power on cooperation and coordination and discuss possible managerial implications of using power as an effective tool for promoting supply chain management. To verify our research hypotheses we conducted semi-structured in-depth expert interviews via telephone about relationships of international food processing companies with their suppliers in Russia and tested the model using the Partial Least Squares (PLS) approach. Depending on the origin of power, it may have different effects on cooperation and coordination. Based on the results of the survey we worked out a special ranking system for the use of power depending on its expected effect on coordination and cooperation. Expert power has the highest ranking among the other types of power for improving coordination. Therefore, we recommend using this strategy as a first priority for improving coordination. The data in our PLS analysis represent only a single perspective in the dyad: food processing companies. Gathering data from other companies' perspectives, such as retailers or agricultural producers, could have produced different (presumably more realistic or complete) findings. Our study offers recommendations for managers about the use of different types of power in managing the Russian agri-food supply chains, with specific attention paid to coordination and cooperation issues. In order to manage supply chain networks successfully, knowledge of different types of power is essential. The developed ranking of different types of power according to their effects on coordination and cooperation is designed to help managers make the right decisions in choosing the appropriate type of power for coordination purposes.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--Ohio State University, 2004.
Title from first page of PDF file. Document formatted into pages; contains xiii, 148 p.; also includes graphics Includes bibliographical references (p. 142-148). Available online via OhioLINK's ETD Center

The Beijing-Arizona Sky Survey (BASS) is a new wide-field legacy imaging survey in the northern Galactic cap using the 2.3 m Bok telescope. The survey will cover about 5400 deg(2) in the g and r bands, and the expected 5 sigma depths (corrected for the Galactic extinction) in these two bands are g = 24.0 and r = 23.4 mag (AB magnitude). BASS started observations in 2015 January. and had. completed about 41% of the. area as of 2016 July. The first data release contains calibrated images obtained in 2015 and 2016 and their corresponding single-epoch. and coadded catalogs. The actual depths of the. single-epoch images are g similar to 23.4 and r similar to 22.9 mag. The full depths of the. three epochs are g similar to 24.1 and r similar to 23.5 mag.

Although the primary role of the computer has been in processing and analysis of survey data, it has increasingly been used in data collection. Computer surveys are not exempt from a common problem: some refuse to participate. Many researchers and practitioners indicate the refusal problem is less for computer surveys, perhaps due to the novelty of the method. What has not been investigated is the refusal problem when on-line surveys are no longer novel. This research study examines the use of one form of computer-assisted data collection, the electronic or on-line survey, as an organizational research tool. The study utilized historical response data and administered an on-line survey to individuals known to be cooperative or uncooperative in other on-line surveys. It investigated nonresponse bias and response effects of typical responders, periodic participants, and typical refusers within a sample of corporate employees in a computer-interactive interviewing environment utilizing on-line surveys. The items measured included: participation, respondent characteristics, response speed, interview length, perceived versus actual interview length, quantity of data, item nonresponse, item response bias, consistency of response, extremity of response, and early and late response. It also evaluated factors reported as important when deciding to participate, preferred data collection method, and preferred time of display. Past participation, attitudes toward on-line organizational surveys, response burden, and response error were assessed. The overall completion rate of 55.7% was achieved in this study. All effort was made to encourage cooperation of all groups, including an invitation to participate, token, on-line pre-notification, 800 number support, two on-line reminders, support of temporary exit, and a paper follow-up survey. A significant difference in the participation of the three groups was found. Only three demographic variables were found to be significant. No significant differences were found in speed of response, interview length, quantity, item nonresponse, item response bias, consistency, and extremity. Significant differences were found in the perceived and actual times to complete the survey.

The performance of radar detection and imaging systems strongly depends on the characteristics of radar clutter. In order to improve the radar signal processing algorithms, successful analysis and modeling of radar clutter are required. For a successful model of radar clutter, both the spectral and statistical characteristics of the clutter should be revealed. Within the scope of this study, an experimental radar data acquisition system is established to analyze radar clutter. The hardware and the data processing system are first verified using generic signals and then a set of measurements is taken in the open terrain. In this thesis, the limitations and problems encountered during the establishment of the system are explained in detail. The spectral and statistical analyses performed on the recorded data are examined. The temporal and spatial behavior of the measured clutter data are explored. The hypothetical models proposed so far in the literature are tested on the experimental data and the fitting of models to the experimental data is confirmed using various goodness-of-fit tests. Finally, the results of the analyses are interpreted in the light of the radar system parameters and the characteristics of the illuminated terrain.

Thesis (M.S. in Computer Science)--Naval Postgraduate School, March 2006.
Thesis Advisor(s): Cynthia E. Irvine, Timothy E. Levin. "March 2006." Includes bibliographical references (p. 43-45). Also available online.

The distribution of real-time multimedia streams is seen nowadays as the next step forward for the Internet. One of the most obvious uses of such streams is to support telephony over the Internet, replacing and improving traditional telephony. This thesis investigates the development and deployment of services in two Internet telephony environments, namely CINEMA (Columbia InterNet Extensible Multimedia Architecture) and VOCAL (Vovida Open Communication Application Library), both based on the Session Initiation Protocol (SIP) and open-sourced. A classification of services is proposed, which divides services into two large groups: basic and advanced services. Basic services are services such as making point-to-point calls, registering with the server and making calls via the server. Any other service is considered an advanced service. Advanced services are defined by four categories: Call Related, Interactive, Internetworking and Hybrid. New services were implemented for the Call Related, Interactive and Internetworking categories. First, features involving call blocking, call screening and missed calls were implemented in the two environments in order to investigate Call-related services. Next, a notification feature was implemented in both environments in order to investigate Interactive services. Finally, a translator between MGCP and SIP was developed to investigate an Internetworking service in the VOCAL environment. The practical implementation of the new features just described was used to answer questions about the location of the services, as well as the level of required expertise and the ease or difficulty experienced in creating services in each of the two environments.
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This dissertation studies the impact of the mode of data collection on the quality of answers to survey questions, defined as the product of reliability and validity. Using data from the Netherlands about different topics (media, social and political trust, satisfaction, political orientation, left-right self-placement, attitudes toward immigration), it shows that the quality is similar in a computed assisted face-to-face survey using show cards (the European Social Survey, ESS) and a web survey based on a probability sample (the LISS panel). This is true both at the level of single items and composite scores. It suggests that standardised relationships across variables can be compared across these two modes. On the contrary, telephone interviews lead to some differences in quality. For complex concepts, measurement equivalence also holds, meaning that means and unstandardised relationships can be compared across the faceto- face and web surveys mentioned previously.
Esta tesis estudia el impacto que el método de recolección de datos en encuestas tiene sobre la calidad de las respuestas, definida como el producto de la fiabilidad y la validez. Utilizando datos de Holanda sobre temas diversos (utilización de los medios de comunicación, confianza social y política, satisfacción, orientaciones políticas, autoubicación en la escala izquierda-derecha, actitudes hacia la inmigración), se muestra que la calidad es similar en una encuesta cara-a-cara asistida con ordenador y utilizando tarjetas (la Encuesta Social Europea) y una encuesta online basada en una muestra probabilística (el panel LISS). Esto se cumple tanto para los indicadores simples, como para indicadores complejos. Los resultados sugieren que las relaciones estandardizadas entre variables son comparables entre los dos métodos de recolección. Al contrario, las entrevistas telefónicas producen diferencias de calidad. Para conceptos complejos, la equivalencia de las mediciones también está garantizada: las medias y las relaciones no estandarizadas son comparables en las entrevistas cara-a-cara y online.

AbstractThis chapter discusses aspects related to data collection. It focuses, firstly, on sampling issues and, secondly, on the survey mode. Sampling issues include sample size and the type of sampling that enable precise estimates to be obtained. Regarding the survey mode, discrete choice experiments can be implemented by mail, telephone, face-to-face or web surveys. Each of these survey modes has its advantages and shortcomings. They are described and compared in the course of this chapter, addressing an important decision in the planning process of a discrete choice experiment.

Abstract The Four Key Metrics of DevOps have become very popular for measuring IT-performance and DevOps adoption. However, the measurement of the four metrics deployment frequency, lead time for change, time to restore service and change failure rate is often done manually and through surveys - with only few data points. In this work we evaluated how the Four Key Metrics can be measured automatically and developed a prototype for the automatic measurement of the Four Key Metrics. We then evaluated if the measurement is valuable for practitioners in a company. The analysis shows that the chosen measurement approach is both suitable and the results valuable for the team with respect to measuring and improving the software delivery performance.

Web-based approaches are increasingly being used for carrying out surveys, for example in research or to obtain user feedback in product and systems development. However, the drawbacks of web surveying are often overlooked. Errors in web surveys can be related to sampling, coverage, measurement, and non-response issues. Low response rates and non-response bias are particularly important for web-based surveys. This paper reports on a web-based survey in an international engineering consultancy, aimed at eliciting feedback on the development of systems to support sustainable engineering, that produced a low response rate. To investigate the reasons for this, a follow-up survey was conducted by telephone. The majority of those questioned were unaware of the original survey. The telephone survey showed that reasons for non-completion by those who were aware may be categorized as resources issues, relevance, and fatigue. Differences between those who were aware of the original survey and those who were not are explored and a gap is found between action and intention, i.e. good intentions to complete a survey are very unlikely to translate into action and completed surveys. The paper concludes with practical guidance for administering web-based surveys and observations on the merits of telephone surveys.

To gain a better understanding of the impact that COVID-19 is having on food systems and rural livelihoods in the region, researchers in the Agricultural Policy Research in Africa (APRA) Programme of the Future Agricultures Consortium (FAC) are conducting a rolling series of telephone-based household surveys and key informant interviews in selected study locations across multiple countries. This report presents results from the first round of that research in seven countries – Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Malawi, Nigeria, Tanzania and Zimbabwe – from interviews conducted in June-July 2020.1 APRA will monitor the situation as the pandemic unfolds through further rounds of data collection and analysis in late 2020 and early 2021.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.