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1
Apostolopoulou, Evangelia. "Biodiversity offsetting in England: governance rescaling, socio-spatial injustices, and the neoliberalization of nature". Web Ecology 16, n. 1 (1 marzo 2016): 67–71. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/we-16-67-2016.
Testo completoAbstract (sommario):
Abstract. In this paper, I use primary empirical data obtained through interviews in selected case studies around England to shed light on the neoliberal character of biodiversity offsetting, its interrelationship with governance rescaling processes, and the way the latter influences the distribution of the costs and benefits of biodiversity offsetting policies. My results show that biodiversity offsetting in England has been a reactionary neoliberal policy whose implementation has so far been characterized by important deficits from an environmental and socio-spatial justice perspective.
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Sebens, Kenneth P. "Spatial Relationships among Encrusting Marine Organisms in the New England Subtidal Zone". Ecological Monographs 56, n. 1 (febbraio 1986): 73–96. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2937271.
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Holland, Daniel S. "A bioeconomic model of marine sanctuaries on Georges Bank". Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 57, n. 6 (1 giugno 2000): 1307–19. http://dx.doi.org/10.1139/f00-061.
Testo completoAbstract (sommario):
An empirically estimated fleet dynamics model for New England trawlers is integrated with spatial, age-structured models of primary groundfish species on Georges Banks, southern New England, and the Gulf of Maine. This bioeconomic model is used to explore how permanent marine sanctuaries on Georges Bank might affect catches, revenues, and spawning stock of principal groundfish species in New England. The simulations explore how the location of sanctuaries relative to major ports and their orientation relative to seasonal movement patterns of fish stocks impact their effectiveness and the distribution of benefits across groups of fishers from different ports. The simulation results also demonstrate that the impacts of sanctuaries can vary greatly across species, sometimes increasing yields for some while decreasing yields for others. While the specific results from the simulations reflect the characteristics of the New England groundfish fishery, the modeling methodology and some general conclusions are applicable to other fisheries.
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Wyatt Oswald, W., Edward K. Faison, David R. Foster, Elaine D. Doughty, Brian R. Hall e Barbara C. S. Hansen. "Post-glacial changes in spatial patterns of vegetation across southern New England". Journal of Biogeography 34, n. 5 (24 gennaio 2007): 900–913. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2699.2006.01650.x.
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Langan, Joseph A., M. Conor McManus, Adena J. Schonfeld, Corinne L. Truesdale e Jeremy S. Collie. "Evaluating Summer Flounder Spatial Sex-Segregation in a Southern New England Estuary". Marine and Coastal Fisheries 11, n. 1 (febbraio 2019): 76–85. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/mcf2.10065.
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Ward, Thomas, Mitzi Morris, Andrew Gelman, Bob Carpenter, William Ferguson, Christopher Overton e Martyn Fyles. "Bayesian spatial modelling of localised SARS-CoV-2 transmission through mobility networks across England". PLOS Computational Biology 19, n. 11 (13 novembre 2023): e1011580. http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1011580.
Testo completoAbstract (sommario):
In the early phases of growth, resurgent epidemic waves of SARS-CoV-2 incidence have been characterised by localised outbreaks. Therefore, understanding the geographic dispersion of emerging variants at the start of an outbreak is key for situational public health awareness. Using telecoms data, we derived mobility networks describing the movement patterns between local authorities in England, which we have used to inform the spatial structure of a Bayesian BYM2 model. Surge testing interventions can result in spatio-temporal sampling bias, and we account for this by extending the BYM2 model to include a random effect for each timepoint in a given area. Simulated-scenario modelling and real-world analyses of each variant that became dominant in England were conducted using our BYM2 model at local authority level in England. Simulated datasets were created using a stochastic metapopulation model, with the transmission rates between different areas parameterised using telecoms mobility data. Different scenarios were constructed to reproduce real-world spatial dispersion patterns that could prove challenging to inference, and we used these scenarios to understand the performance characteristics of the BYM2 model. The model performed better than unadjusted test positivity in all the simulation-scenarios, and in particular when sample sizes were small, or data was missing for geographical areas. Through the analyses of emerging variant transmission across England, we found a reduction in the early growth phase geographic clustering of later dominant variants as England became more interconnected from early 2022 and public health interventions were reduced. We have also shown the recent increased geographic spread and dominance of variants with similar mutations in the receptor binding domain, which may be indicative of convergent evolution of SARS-CoV-2 variants.
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Boulieri, Areti, James E. Bennett e Marta Blangiardo. "A Bayesian mixture modeling approach for public health surveillance". Biostatistics 21, n. 3 (25 settembre 2018): 369–83. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/biostatistics/kxy038.
Testo completoAbstract (sommario):
Summary Spatial monitoring of trends in health data plays an important part of public health surveillance. Most commonly, it is used to understand the etiology of a public health issue, to assess the impact of an intervention, or to provide detection of unusual behavior. In this article, we present a Bayesian mixture model for public health surveillance, which is able to provide estimates of the disease risk in space and time, and also to detect areas with unusual behavior. The model is designed to deal with a range of spatial and temporal patterns in the data, and with time series of different lengths. We carry out a simulation study to assess the performance of the model under different scenarios, and we compare it against a recently proposed Bayesian model for short time series. Finally, the proposed model is used for surveillance of road traffic accidents data in England over the years 2005–2015.
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Manderson, John P. "The spatial scale of phase synchrony in winter flounder (Pseudopleuronectes americanus) production increased among southern New England nurseries in the 1990s". Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 65, n. 3 (1 marzo 2008): 340–51. http://dx.doi.org/10.1139/f07-169.
Testo completoAbstract (sommario):
The spatial scales at which the dynamics of subpopulations are synchronized affect regional population persistence and reflect the operational spatial scales of factors regulating populations. I examined phase synchrony in the fluctuations of age-0 winter flounder (Pseudopleuronectes americanus) production among 19 southern New England (SNE), USA, coastal nurseries. From 1990 to 2004, nursery production was synchronized at scales up to ~200 km based on spatial trends in cross-correlations of first-differenced age-0 abundance time series. However, sliding window analysis of 1975–2005 time series collected in six nurseries ≤55 km apart in northern SNE indicated that synchrony increased from low to high values in the early 1990s. Synchrony in production also increased among three nurseries ≤65 km apart in southern SNE from 1984 to 2004. Thus, interannual fluctuations in nursery production appeared to become synchronized at coarser spatial scales throughout SNE during the 1990s. This coarsening of the spatial scale of control of winter flounder nursery production was coincident with an increase in the frequency of springs with warm temperatures believed to negatively affect early life history processes. Spatial synchronization of winter flounder nursery ground production could destabilize the age-class structure and population dynamics in the region.
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Goethel, Daniel R., Christopher M. Legault e Steven X. Cadrin. "Testing the performance of a spatially explicit tag-integrated stock assessment model of yellowtail flounder (Limanda ferruginea) through simulation analysis". Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 72, n. 4 (aprile 2015): 582–601. http://dx.doi.org/10.1139/cjfas-2014-0244.
Testo completoAbstract (sommario):
In any stock assessment application, the implicit assumptions regarding spatial population structure must be carefully evaluated. Tag-integrated models offer a promising approach for incorporating spatial structure and movement patterns in stock assessments, but the complexity of the framework makes implementation challenging and the appraisal of performance difficult. A flounder-like fishery was simulated to emulate the metapopulation dynamics of the three yellowtail flounder (Limanda ferruginea) stocks off New England, and the robustness of spatially explicit tag-integrated models were compared with closed population assessments. Different movement parametrizations and data uncertainty scenarios were simulated, while the ability of the tag-integrated model to estimate reporting rate and time-varying movement were also evaluated. Results indicated that the tag-integrated framework was robust for the simulated fishery across a wide range of connectivity levels and that tag reporting rates were accurately estimated. Closed population models also demonstrated limited error. Therefore, spatially explicit approaches may not always be warranted even when regional connectivity is occurring, but tag-integrated models can provide improved parameter estimates when reliable tagging data are available. Tag-integrated models also serve as valuable tools for informing spatially explicit operating models, which can then be used to evaluate the assumptions and performance of closed population models.
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Lehuta, Sigrid, Daniel S. Holland e Andrew J. Pershing. "Investigating interconnected fisheries: a coupled model of the lobster and herring fisheries in New England". Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 71, n. 2 (febbraio 2014): 272–89. http://dx.doi.org/10.1139/cjfas-2013-0185.
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Ostensibly separate fisheries are often linked through ecological, environmental, and human mediated processes that can impact their productivity, profitability, and resilience; however, managers rarely explicitly account for these linkages. We present a coupled bioeconomic model of the American lobster (Homarus americanus) and Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus) fisheries in the northeast United States. The model builds upon existing stock assessment models and includes key characteristics of both fisheries including size- or age-structured populations, seasonal patterns of lobster exploitation, and seasonal-spatial patterns of herring exploitation. The lobster and herring models are linked through a bait market module that drives behavior of the herring fleet and affects catches, costs, and revenues in both fisheries. The model illustrates how changes in management or ecosystem conditions in one fishery can propagate to another. The model suggests that the lobster fishery is robust to declines in herring recruitment and limited changes in the spatial allocation of the herring total allowable catch. However, herring catches and stocks are affected by changes in lobster management that impact effort levels.
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Cogbill, Charles V., John Burk e G. Motzkin. "The forests of presettlement New England, USA: spatial and compositional patterns based on town proprietor surveys". Journal of Biogeography 29, n. 10-11 (ottobre 2002): 1279–304. http://dx.doi.org/10.1046/j.1365-2699.2002.00757.x.
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McCarty, Dakota, e Hyun Woo Kim. "Risky behaviors and road safety: An exploration of age and gender influences on road accident rates". PLOS ONE 19, n. 1 (22 gennaio 2024): e0296663. http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0296663.
Testo completoAbstract (sommario):
Human behavior is a dominant factor in road accidents, contributing to more than 70% of such incidents. However, gathering detailed data on individual drivers’ behavior is a significant challenge in the field of road safety. As a result, researchers often narrow the scope of their studies thus limiting the generalizability of their findings. Our study aims to address this issue by identifying demographic-related variables and their indirect effects on road accident frequency. The theoretical basis is set through existing literature linking demographics to risky driving behavior and through the concept of “close to home” effect, finding that the upwards of 62% of accidents happen within 11km of a driver’s home. Using regression-based machine learning models, our study, looking at England, UK, explores the theoretical linkages between demographics of an area and road accident frequency, finding that census data is able to explain over 28% of the variance in road accident rates per capita. While not replacing more in-depth research on driver behavior, this research validates trends found in the literature through the use of widely available data with the use of novel methods. The results of this study support the use of demographic data from the national census that is obtainable at a large spatial and temporal scale to estimate road accident risks; additionally, it demonstrates a methodology to further explore potential indirect relationships and proxies between behaviors and road accident risk.
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Stelzenmüller, Vanessa, Stuart I. Rogers e Craig M. Mills. "Spatio-temporal patterns of fishing pressure on UK marine landscapes, and their implications for spatial planning and management". ICES Journal of Marine Science 65, n. 6 (29 aprile 2008): 1081–91. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsn073.
Testo completoAbstract (sommario):
AbstractStelzenmüller, V., Rogers, S. I., and Mills, C. M. 2008. Spatio-temporal patterns of fishing pressure on UK marine landscapes, and their implications for spatial planning and management. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 65: 1081–1091. The spatio-temporal distribution of fishing pressure on marine landscapes in offshore UK (England and Wales) waters is assessed, based on a time-series of fishing vessel monitoring system (VMS) data for UK and foreign fleets deploying beam and otter trawls, and scallop dredges. The results reveal that marine landscapes with coarse or mixed sediments and weak or moderate tide stress are heavily fished. Marine landscapes experienced different intensities of fishing pressure depending on their spatial location in UK offshore waters and the regional heterogeneity of landscape types. Spatial patterns of fishing pressure vary by region, but within regions, patches of high fishing pressure remain centred at the same locations. When designing marine management plans, it is important to take account of the spatial extent and patchiness of fishing activity, and the consistency with which areas are fished in the same region from year to year. Descriptions of the spatial distribution of fishing pressures will become more meaningful at a local level if they also reflect the sensitivity of the habitats to those pressures. The further development of such sensitivity analyses, using life-history traits or measures of benthic production, is now becoming a priority.
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Rawlins, B. G., B. Palumbo-Roe, D. C. Gooddy, F. Worrall e H. Smith. "A model of potential carbon dioxide efflux from surface water across England and Wales using headwater stream survey data and landscape predictors". Biogeosciences 11, n. 7 (8 aprile 2014): 1911–25. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-1911-2014.
Testo completoAbstract (sommario):
Abstract. Measurements of CO2 partial pressures (pCO2) in small headwater streams are useful for predicting potential CO2 efflux because they provide a single concentration representing a mixture from different hydrological pathways and sources in the catchment. We developed a model to predict pCO2 in headwater streams from measurements undertaken on snapshot samples collected from more than 3000 channels across the landscape of England and Wales. We used a subset of streams with upstream catchment areas (CA) of less than 8 km2 because below this scale threshold pCO2 was independent of CA. A series of catchment characteristics were found to be statistically significant predictors of pCO2, including three geomorphic variables (mean altitude, mean catchment slope and relief) and four groups of dominant catchment land cover classes (arable, improved grassland, suburban and all other classes). We accounted for year-round, temporal variation in our model of headwater pCO2 by including weekly or monthly analyses of samples from three headwater catchments with different land use and geomorphic features. Our model accounted for 24% of the spatial and temporal variation in pCO2. We combined predictions from the pCO2 model (on a 1 km grid) and monthly runoff volumes (litres) on 0.5° resolution grid across England and Wales to compute potential C fluxes to the atmosphere. Our model predicts an annual average potential C flux of 65.4 kt C across England and Wales (based on free C concentrations), with lower and upper 95% confidence values of 56.1 and 77.2 kt C, respectively.
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Rawlins, B. G., B. Palumbo-Roe, D. C. Gooddy, F. Worrall e H. Smith. "A model of potential carbon dioxide efflux from surface water across England and Wales using headwater stream survey data and landscape predictors". Biogeosciences Discussions 10, n. 10 (24 ottobre 2013): 16453–90. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/bgd-10-16453-2013.
Testo completoAbstract (sommario):
Abstract. Measurements of CO2 partial pressures (pCO2) in small headwater streams are useful for predicting potential CO2 efflux because they provide a single concentration representing a mixture from different hydrological pathways and sources in the catchment. We developed a model to predict pCO2 in headwater streams from measurements undertaken on snapshot samples collected from more than 3000 channels across the landscape of England and Wales. We used a subset of streams with upstream catchment areas (CA) of less than 8 km2 because below this scale threshold pCO2 was independent of CA. A series of catchment characteristics were found to be statistically significant predictors of pCO2 including three geomorphic variables (mean altitude, mean catchment slope and relief) and four groups of dominant catchment land cover classes (arable, improved grassland, suburban and all other classes). We accounted for year-round, temporal variation in our model of headwater pCO2 by including weekly or monthly analyses of samples from three headwater catchments with different land use and geomorphic features. Our model accounted for 24% of the spatial and temporal variation in pCO2. We calculated monthly long-term (1961–1990) average flow volumes (litres) on a 1 km grid across England and Wales to compute potential C fluxes to the atmosphere. Our model predicts an annual average potential C flux of 60.8 kt C across England and Wales (based on free C concentrations), with lower and upper 95% confidence values of 52.3 and 71.4 kt C, respectively.
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Pospelova, Vera, Gail L. Chmura e Henry A. Walker. "Environmental factors influencing the spatial distribution of dinoflagellate cyst assemblages in shallow lagoons of southern New England (USA)". Review of Palaeobotany and Palynology 128, n. 1-2 (gennaio 2004): 7–34. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s0034-6667(03)00110-6.
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Kilpatrick, Howard J., e Travis J. Goodie. "Spatial Use and Survival of Sympatric Populations of New England and Eastern Cottontails in Connecticut". Journal of Fish and Wildlife Management 11, n. 1 (1 ottobre 2019): 3–10. http://dx.doi.org/10.3996/082016-jfwm-062.
Testo completoAbstract (sommario):
Abstract The New England cottontail (NEC) Sylvilagus transitionalis is strongly associated with shrubland and early successional habitat and is the only cottontail native to the U.S. Northeast. The distribution and abundance of young forest habitat and NEC populations have declined. The eastern cottontail (EC) Sylvilagus floridanus was introduced into the U.S. Northeast in the early 1900s and uses similar habitat as NEC, but is expanding in distribution and abundance. Little information exists on spatial use, survival, and competition in sympatric populations of NEC and EC. Understanding differences in population demographics may identify important factors or relationships influencing population trends and aid in developing effective management strategies. Our objectives were to quantify home range and core area sizes, annual survival rates, minimum population densities, and range overlap for sympatric populations of NEC and EC at four sites in Connecticut. We monitored spatial use and survival rates of 107 radio-collared rabbits over a 10-y period. Mean annual home ranges and core areas were 10.9 and 2.5 ha for NEC and 5.6 and 1.6 ha for EC. Overlap in home range and core areas was greater within species than between species (NEC-EC). For both species and sex, home range size expanded from winter to breeding seasons. Survival rates were greater for NEC than for EC at all four sites, with predation as the major cause of mortality for both species. Space-use patterns suggest that the potential for EC to interfere with NEC reproduction is limited and avoidance or resource partitioning between species in the same patch may be occurring.
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Watson, Fiona L., Robert J. Miller e Samuel Alan Stewart. "Spatial and temporal variation in size at maturity for female American lobster in Nova Scotia". Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 70, n. 8 (agosto 2013): 1240–51. http://dx.doi.org/10.1139/cjfas-2012-0480.
Testo completoAbstract (sommario):
Using the development stage of cement glands to predict spawning, maturity ogives were constructed for six fishing ports in eastern Nova Scotia. The size at which 50% of females attained maturity (L50) and the ogive slopes were compared between locations and years. Among ports within years, 21 of 25 L50 pairs were significantly different, while only 5 of 24 slope pairs were different. These results fill a geographic gap and indicate that most of the areas should not be grouped when calculating egg production. Comparing among years within ports, most significant differences were again for L50 rather than slopes. In two ports, the change in the ogive among years gave a 2- or 2.4-fold change in eggs per recruit and a 2.9- or 5-fold change in the percentage of females that reach maturity by the legal minimum size. On a larger scale, L50 was intermediate in Newfoundland, consistently low throughout the southern Gulf of St. Lawrence, abruptly increased on the outer coast of Nova Scotia into the Bay of Fundy, and again intermediate inshore and offshore New England.
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PURVIS, O. William, P. James CHIMONIDES, Teresa E. JEFFRIES, Gary C. JONES, Helen READ e Baruch SPIRO. "Investigating biogeochemical signatures in the lichen Parmelia sulcata at Burnham Beeches, Buckinghamshire, England". Lichenologist 37, n. 4 (luglio 2005): 329–44. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0024282905015288.
Testo completoAbstract (sommario):
Biogeochemical signatures were compared in ‘living’ and ‘dead’ Parmelia sulcata samples with their oak bark substratum. Eighteen elements reached maximum concentrations in ‘dead’ lichens, at lower concentrations than reported from industrial regions. High N concentrations in ‘dead’ lichens confirm exceedances of critical levels established for deciduous woodlands, supported by alien algae and ‘nitrophytic’ lichen colonization. Negative δ15N values recorded in lichen samples indicate N originated mainly from ammonia. Less negative δ15N values in healthy samples near busy roads suggest local NOx accumulation by Parmelia. Higher δ15N values in bark may result from different processes. Twenty-eight elements reach higher concentrations in healthy lichens near roads carrying higher traffic volumes. Thirteen elements correlate positively with lichen δ15N, suggesting that δ15N is a powerful indicator of the balance between agricultural and vehicular N influx. Maximum Ca and Sr concentrations recorded in bark and their spatial distribution suggest a local geological origin. High concentrations of Ga, Ba, Pb and Ni bark contents testify to a previous pollution legacy, including that from petrol which carried higher lead concentrations than today. Mn concentrations are higher than reported from other studies and show no clear relationship with local roads. Mn is known to limit lichen diversity and health in coniferous forests in US and Germany, but not yet in deciduous woodlands. Current atmospheric conditions and the former pollution legacy must be understood to conserve epiphytes and for biomonitoring.
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Fulweiler, Robinson W., Scott W. Nixon e Betty A. Buckley. "Spatial and Temporal Variability of Benthic Oxygen Demand and Nutrient Regeneration in an Anthropogenically Impacted New England Estuary". Estuaries and Coasts 33, n. 6 (2 febbraio 2010): 1377–90. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s12237-009-9260-y.
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Siskey, Matthew R., Michael G. Frisk, Robert M. Cerrato e Karin E. Limburg. "Redefining spatial population structure of winter flounder (Pseudopleuronectes americanus): implications for stock assessment and management". Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 77, n. 7 (luglio 2020): 1189–200. http://dx.doi.org/10.1139/cjfas-2019-0279.
Testo completoAbstract (sommario):
The southern New England – mid-Atlantic (SNE–MA) stock of winter flounder (Pseudopleuronectes americanus) collapsed in the 1990s without discernable recovery to date. Owing to the lack of recovery, consideration of population subcomponents, which are currently ignored in fisheries stock structure definitions, may be necessary for rebuilding. We used the otolith chemistry tracer manganese–calcium ratios (Mn/Ca) to estimate inshore- versus ocean-nursery contributions of 77.3%/22.7% in SNE–MA, 15.7%/84.3% in the Gulf of Maine (GOM), and 60.0%/40.0% in Georges Bank (GB). In addition, we used strontium–calcium ratios (Sr/Ca) to estimate migratory- and resident-contingent membership of nursery-classified fish. Across all stocks, 30.2% of fish were classified as bay residents, 25.2% as bay migrants, 25.8% as ocean residents, and 18.8% as ocean migrants. Finally, model selection indicated that both nursery-specific and contingent-specific growth models were more appropriate than a common model. Nursery-specific models exhibited increasing deviations in length with age. Contingent-specific model reflected moderate differences at the youngest ages but convergence at older ages. These findings are informative for the population structure and migration ecology of winter flounder; however, simulation is required to determine whether partial migration and substock structure are necessary inputs for sustainable fisheries management.
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Breen, Patricia, Koen Vanstaen e Robert W. E. Clark. "Mapping inshore fishing activity using aerial, land, and vessel-based sighting information". ICES Journal of Marine Science 72, n. 2 (2 luglio 2014): 467–79. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsu115.
Testo completoAbstract (sommario):
Abstract Information on the distribution and intensity of inshore fishing activity is needed to inform marine spatial planning and to assess fisheries interactions with the environment and other industries. Although fishing vessels under 15 m (overall length) account for 98.4% (2011 value) by the number of the European fleet, information on inshore fishing activity in Europe is very limited as there is no statutory satellite monitoring of smaller vessels (<15 m length before 2012, <12 m thereafter). Here, we develop, present, and apply a method which uses sightings-per-unit-effort (SPUE) estimates calculated from fisheries enforcement data to describe the distribution and intensity of inshore fishing activity off the coasts of England and Wales. For the larger inshore vessels, the SPUE estimates of activity were validated with vessel monitoring system (VMS) data and showed good agreement at the scale of analysis. Fishing activity estimates from SPUE are presented with an assessment of uncertainty, to account for spatial differences in enforcement activity. Our estimates of the distribution and intensity of inshore fishing activity and will complement estimates of offshore fishing activity based on VMS.
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Huckle, J. M., R. H. Marrs e J. A. Potter. "Spatial and temporal changes in salt marsh distribution in the Dee estuary, NW England, determined from aerial photographs". Wetlands Ecology and Management 12, n. 5 (ottobre 2004): 483–98. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11273-005-5166-z.
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Brown, Anne L., e John A. Litvaitis. "Habitat features associated with predation of New England cottontails: What scale is appropriate?" Canadian Journal of Zoology 73, n. 6 (1 giugno 1995): 1005–11. http://dx.doi.org/10.1139/z95-120.
Testo completoAbstract (sommario):
We examined habitat features at several spatial scales that were associated with predation of New England cottontails (Sylvilagus transitionalis) by mammalian carnivores. The fate (killed or survived) of marked cottontails was compared with the characteristics of the habitat patch they occupied and composition of the surrounding landscape. The perimeter-to-area ratio of an occupied patch, the amount of disturbed habitat within 0.5 km of a patch, and the amount of coniferous forest within 1 km of a patch were greater for killed rabbits than for those that survived. The amount of water within 1 km and an index of landscape evenness were greater for rabbits that survived. Habitat features in the vicinity of patches occupied by cottontails apparently influenced the distribution and movements of carnivores. Characteristics of patches likely influenced rabbit exposure and predator success. We propose that predation of cottontails was a multiscaled process. Landscape composition (ca. 250 km2) influenced the relative abundance of predators. The distribution of predators within a landscape was a function of the distribution of life requisites (multiple patches, ca. 250 ha). Predators then selected a patch in which to forage on the basis of its relative productivity compared with adjacent patches. Finally, once a predator entered a patch, the vulnerability of a resident cottontail was dependent on the site (ca. 250 m2) occupied by the rabbit. This hierarchical approach may help resolve the current debate on the risk of predation in fragmented landscapes.
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Luk, Yi Chuan, e Roman N. Zajac. "Spatial Ecology of Fiddler Crabs,Uca pugnax, in Southern New England Salt Marsh Landscapes: Potential Habitat Expansion in Relation to Salt Marsh Change". Northeastern Naturalist 20, n. 2 (giugno 2013): 255–74. http://dx.doi.org/10.1656/045.020.0213.
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Howley, Peter, Muhammad Waqas, Mirko Moro, Liam Delaney e Tony Heron. "It’s Not All about the Economy Stupid! Immigration and Subjective Well-Being in England". Work, Employment and Society 34, n. 5 (6 settembre 2019): 919–36. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0950017019866643.
Testo completoAbstract (sommario):
While much is known regarding the effects of immigration for objective outcomes, relatively little is known regarding the effects for perceived well-being. By exploiting spatial and temporal variation in the net-inflows of foreign-born individuals across local areas in England, we examine the relationship between immigration and natives’ subjective well-being as captured by the General Health Questionnaire (GHQ). We find small negative effects overall but that an analysis of the main effects masks significant differences across subgroups, with relatively older individuals, those with below-average household incomes, the unemployed and finally those without any formal educational qualifications experiencing much more substantive well-being losses than others. These observed well-being differentials are congruent with voting patterns evident in the recent UK referendum on EU membership. We put forward perceived as opposed to actual labour market competition and social identity as two potential explanations for the negative well-being impacts of immigration for natives.
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Pichugina, Yelena L., Robert M. Banta, W. Alan Brewer, Scott P. Sandberg e R. Michael Hardesty. "Doppler Lidar–Based Wind-Profile Measurement System for Offshore Wind-Energy and Other Marine Boundary Layer Applications". Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 51, n. 2 (febbraio 2012): 327–49. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jamc-d-11-040.1.
Testo completoAbstract (sommario):
AbstractAccurate measurement of wind speed profiles aloft in the marine boundary layer is a difficult challenge. The development of offshore wind energy requires accurate information on wind speeds above the surface at least at the levels occupied by turbine blades. Few measured data are available at these heights, and the temporal and spatial behavior of near-surface winds is often unrepresentative of that at the required heights. As a consequence, numerical model data, another potential source of information, are essentially unverified at these levels of the atmosphere. In this paper, a motion-compensated, high-resolution Doppler lidar–based wind measurement system that is capable of providing needed information on offshore winds at several heights is described. The system has been evaluated and verified in several ways. A sampling of data from the 2004 New England Air Quality Study shows the kind of analyses and information available. Examples include time–height cross sections, time series, profiles, and distributions of quantities such as winds and shear. These analyses show that there is strong spatial and temporal variability associated with the wind field in the marine boundary layer. Winds near the coast show diurnal variations, and frequent occurrences of low-level jets are evident, especially during nocturnal periods. Persistent patterns of spatial variability in the flow field that are due to coastal irregularities should be of particular concern for wind-energy planning, because they affect the representativeness of fixed-location measurements and imply that some areas would be favored for wind-energy production whereas others would not.
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Baroudy, E., e J. M. Elliott. "The effect of large-scale spatial variation of pelagic fish on hydroacoustic estimates of their population density in Windermere (northwest England)". Ecology of Freshwater Fish 2, n. 4 (dicembre 1993): 160–66. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0633.1993.tb00098.x.
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Rees, H. L., S. M. Rowlatt, M. A. Lambert, R. G. Lees e D. S. Limpenny. "Spatial and temporal trends in the benthos and sediments in relation to sewage sludge disposal off the northeast coast of England". ICES Journal of Marine Science 49, n. 1 (1 febbraio 1992): 55–64. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/49.1.55.
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Zhuang, Zhaozhong, e Andone C. Lavery. "Characterizing the deep sound scattering layer with a moored upward-looking broadband split-beam echosounder". Journal of the Acoustical Society of America 153, n. 3_supplement (1 marzo 2023): A63. http://dx.doi.org/10.1121/10.0018172.
Testo completoAbstract (sommario):
The deep scattering layer (DSL) is a ubiquitous feature of the global ocean. It consists of a large community of mesopelagic organisms which links the marine food web and has recently garnered much interest from commercial fisheries. Such biological communities are inherently coupled with oceanic physical processes such as mesoscale eddies, internal waves and boundary currents. However, very little is known about the physical consequences and biological responses in this coupled system. To address these questions, an upward-looking broadband split-beam echosounder (36kHz – 44 kHz) was moored at ∼580 m depth (bottom depth ∼2790 m) in the New England slope waters in July 2021. The time series analysis focuses on (1) volume scattering strength and spectrum shape and (2) target strength, layer density and compositions, and individual behavior in three dimensions. We demonstrate the seasonal variability in the biomass, distribution, and vertical migration patterns of the deep scattering layer, and quantify the temporal and spatial variability of the DSL under the influence of multiple oceanic physical processes, including warm core rings, semidiurnal internal tides, and near-inertial waves.
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Buchheister, Andre, Thomas J. Miller, Edward D. Houde, David H. Secor e Robert J. Latour. "Spatial and temporal dynamics of Atlantic menhaden (Brevoortia tyrannus) recruitment in the Northwest Atlantic Ocean". ICES Journal of Marine Science 73, n. 4 (21 gennaio 2016): 1147–59. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsv260.
Testo completoAbstract (sommario):
Abstract Atlantic menhaden, Brevoortia tyrannus, is an abundant, schooling pelagic fish that is widely distributed in the coastal Northwest Atlantic. It supports the largest single-species fishery by volume on the east coast of the United States. However, relatively little is known about factors that control recruitment, and its stock–recruitment relationship is poorly defined. Atlantic menhaden is managed as a single unit stock, but fisheries and environmental variables likely act regionally on recruitments. To better understand spatial and temporal variability in recruitment, fishery-independent time-series (1959–2013) of young-of-year (YOY) abundance indices from the Mid-Atlantic to Southern New England (SNE) were analysed using dynamic factor analysis and generalized additive models. Recruitment time-series demonstrated low-frequency variability and the analyses identified two broad geographical groupings, the Chesapeake Bay (CB) and SNE. Each of these two regions exhibited changes in YOY abundance and different periods of relatively high YOY abundance that were inversely related to each other; CB indices were highest from ca. 1971 to 1991, whereas SNE indices were high from ca. 1995 to 2005. We tested for effects of climatic, environmental, biological, and fishing-related variables that have been documented or hypothesized to influence stock productivity. A broad-scale indicator of climate, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, was the best single predictor of coast-wide recruitment patterns, and had opposing effects on the CB and SNE regions. Underlying mechanisms of spatial and interannual variability in recruitment likely derive from interactions among climatology, larval transport, adult menhaden distribution, and habitat suitability. The identified regional patterns and climatic effects have implications for the stock assessment of Atlantic menhaden, particularly given the geographically constrained nature of the existing fishery and the climatic oscillations characteristic of the coastal ocean.
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King, NG, PJ Moore, C. Wilding, HL Jenkins e DA Smale. "Multiscale spatial variability in epibiont assemblage structure associated with stipes of kelp Laminaria hyperborea in the northeast Atlantic". Marine Ecology Progress Series 672 (19 agosto 2021): 33–44. http://dx.doi.org/10.3354/meps13794.
Testo completoAbstract (sommario):
Foundation species elevate local biodiversity and underpin critical ecological processes and functions. Kelp species are distributed along ~25% of the world’s coastlines, where they serve as foundation species in intertidal and subtidal habitats. As well as ameliorating environmental conditions and producing organic matter, they provide biogenic habitat for a vast array of associated organisms. Here, we investigated patterns of diversity and structure in assemblages associated with the stipe of the kelp Laminaria hyperborea in the NE Atlantic. Stipes were sampled at 4 study regions (with 3 sites nested within each region) in the UK, spanning ~9° of latitude. Stipe-associated communities were highly diverse (134 species) and abundant (16-4532 ind. stipe-1), with no obvious sequential shift in diversity or overall trends in abundance/biomass of assemblages with latitude. However, we observed high degrees of variability between sites from the same region and individuals within sites, indicating that processes working across smaller spatial scales were more important than those at regional scales. While we observed high between-site variability in assemblage structure, regional differences were also evident. Most notably, sites within our southernmost region (southern England) were largely devoid of amphipods that dominated all other regions. This study highlights the important role of L. hyperborea in elevating biodiversity at local to regional scales through a facilitative interaction. Moreover, given that L. hyperborea forests may be increasingly impacted by ocean warming, changes in coastal water quality and proposed exploitation, our study serves as an important benchmark against which to detect future changes.
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Dolman, Paul M., e Kristin Wäber. "Ecosystem and competition impacts of introduced deer". Wildlife Research 35, n. 3 (2008): 202. http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/wr07114.
Testo completoAbstract (sommario):
Numerous deer species have been introduced beyond their native range into ecosystems around the world. Their economic value leads to further accidental and deliberate releases and lack of control is contributing to range expansion in Australia, South America and Europe. Despite localised or regional concern, the scale and generality of detrimental impacts have not been widely recognised. We review the direct and indirect impacts on ecosystems and evidence for interspecific effects on native deer. In New Zealand, where large herbivores were previously absent, severe and novel impacts have been found in susceptible forests. Even where ecosystems contain native deer, invasion by taxonomically exotic deer species carries the risk of cascade effects on spatial plant dynamics and forest composition. In Patagonia, introduced deer have disrupted forest composition, whereas in Europe, ecosystem impacts of introduced species can differ from those of over-abundant native deer. Introduced Chinese muntjac (Muntiacus reevesi) within a coniferous forestry landscape in eastern England differ from native European roe deer (Capreolus capreolus) in their distribution of herbivory among differing habitats, and provide much lower rates of endozoochorous seed dispersal. Frequent concern is expressed that introduced deer species may have detrimental effects on native deer and other ungulates, although potential epidemiological effects have not been investigated. Apparent competition, with introduced prey resulting in increased predation rates on native deer, may be occurring between South American huemul (Hippocamelus bisulcus) and southern pudu (Pudu puda). Habitat and dietary overlap is often substantial among native and introduced ungulates, including deer, and exploitation competition is likely. Evidence includes spatial responses of native to non-native deer and negatively correlated changes in population abundance, but demographic mechanisms have not been demonstrated previously. In a coniferous forestry landscape in eastern England, substantial habitat and dietary overlap occurs between native roe deer and high-density introduced Chinese muntjac. This roe deer population has shown a reduction in body weight and fertility following establishment and increasing abundance of non-native Chinese muntjac, compatible with interspecific competition. European roe deer also appear susceptible to competition from larger grazing deer, including native red deer (Cervus elaphus) and introduced fallow (Dama dama). The widely introduced fallow deer may be a particularly effective competitor in sympatry with intermediate or concentrate feeders. There is need for further investigation of potential interactions of introduced and native deer species, and a wider recognition of the ecological impacts of introduced deer.
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Lee, Wan-Jean. "Intensive use of an intertidal mudflat by foraging adult American horseshoe crabs Limulus polyphemus in the Great Bay estuary, New Hampshire". Current Zoology 56, n. 5 (1 ottobre 2010): 611–17. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/czoolo/56.5.611.
Testo completoAbstract (sommario):
Abstract Although concerns about harvesting levels of the American Horseshoe Crab, Limulus polyphemus have prompted increased research into its ecology, current understanding of the species’ foraging ecology is mostly limited to mid-Atlantic populations. This study elucidates the spatial and temporal pattern of Limulus foraging on an intertidal mudflat of a northern New England estuary. A novel survey method was used to monitor Limulus foraging activity without disturbing the sediment. A fixed 50 m×2 m transect was monitored with monthly surveys of the number of Limulus feeding pits from June to October 2009, May and June 2010. Snorkelling surveys were also carried out to observe individual behavior and examine the spatial scale of activity of individual animals. Results showed frequent and intensive use of the mudflat by foraging Limulus. Limulus were actively foraging within the survey area during all months surveyed. Foraging patterns exhibited a seasonal pattern with activity levels peaking in August 2009 and increased significantly towards the end of the study in June 2010. It was also shown that Limulus intertidal foraging persisted and peaked after the spring breeding season. Observations of foraging Limulus revealed that individual predators dig multiple pits within a single high tide, with little disturbance to the sediment in between. In addition to altering the perception of Limulus as a subtidal predator outside of the breeding season, findings from this study suggests a segregation of spawning and feeding habitats, thus underscoring the need to consider a wider range of critical habitats in the management of Limulus populations.
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Nicolle, Amandine, Roderic Moitié, Julien Ogor, Franck Dumas, Aurélie Foveau, Eric Foucher e Eric Thiébaut. "Modelling larval dispersal of Pecten maximus in the English Channel: a tool for the spatial management of the stocks". ICES Journal of Marine Science 74, n. 6 (26 dicembre 2016): 1812–25. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsw207.
Testo completoAbstract (sommario):
AbstractThe great scallop Pecten maximus supports one of the most important and valuable commercial fisheries around the British Isles and in the northwest of France, but the resource is mainly managed at the scale of each local fishing ground through a combination of European, national and local measures. To analyse the larval dispersal pathways and connectivity patterns among fishing grounds of the great scallop in the Celtic Sea and the English Channel, a particle tracking model was developed. The model combined a 3D physical circulation model that simulated currents and temperature fields and a scallop larval submodel that took into account a temperature-dependent planktonic larval duration and an active vertical swimming behaviour. Due to the lack of stock assessment at the regional scale, the location of the main fishing grounds was established by combining different sources (e.g. grey literature, unpublished scientific surveys, vessel monitoring data, fishermen) while the spawning biomass of each stock was estimated from landings data. Results indicated that each local stock could not be considered as a single independent management unit and that all stocks except that of the Bay of Brest were connected to neighbouring stocks, suggesting that the management should be defined in a metapopulation context. Three major groups of strongly interconnected stocks including two or three stocks exhibiting high retention and self-recruitment rates and some peripheral stocks with a low self-recruitment rate were defined: the North Brittany and Channel Islands, the eastern English Channel, and the SW of England. Our results were discussed in terms of the definition of management units in comparison with genetic and phenotypic data, and in terms of resource management in a transnational context.
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Ondrikova, Nikola, John P. Harris, Amy Douglas, Helen E. Hughes, Miren Iturriza-Gomara, Roberto Vivancos, Alex J. Elliot, Nigel A. Cunliffe e Helen E. Clough. "Predicting Norovirus in England Using Existing and Emerging Syndromic Data: Infodemiology Study". Journal of Medical Internet Research 25 (8 maggio 2023): e37540. http://dx.doi.org/10.2196/37540.
Testo completoAbstract (sommario):
Background Norovirus is associated with approximately 18% of the global burden of gastroenteritis and affects all age groups. There is currently no licensed vaccine or available antiviral treatment. However, well-designed early warning systems and forecasting can guide nonpharmaceutical approaches to norovirus infection prevention and control. Objective This study evaluates the predictive power of existing syndromic surveillance data and emerging data sources, such as internet searches and Wikipedia page views, to predict norovirus activity across a range of age groups across England. Methods We used existing syndromic surveillance and emerging syndromic data to predict laboratory data indicating norovirus activity. Two methods are used to evaluate the predictive potential of syndromic variables. First, the Granger causality framework was used to assess whether individual variables precede changes in norovirus laboratory reports in a given region or an age group. Then, we used random forest modeling to estimate the importance of each variable in the context of others with two methods: (1) change in the mean square error and (2) node purity. Finally, these results were combined into a visualization indicating the most influential predictors for norovirus laboratory reports in a specific age group and region. Results Our results suggest that syndromic surveillance data include valuable predictors for norovirus laboratory reports in England. However, Wikipedia page views are less likely to provide prediction improvements on top of Google Trends and Existing Syndromic Data. Predictors displayed varying relevance across age groups and regions. For example, the random forest modeling based on selected existing and emerging syndromic variables explained 60% variance in the ≥65 years age group, 42% in the East of England, but only 13% in the South West region. Emerging data sets highlighted relative search volumes, including “flu symptoms,” “norovirus in pregnancy,” and norovirus activity in specific years, such as “norovirus 2016.” Symptoms of vomiting and gastroenteritis in multiple age groups were identified as important predictors within existing data sources. Conclusions Existing and emerging data sources can help predict norovirus activity in England in some age groups and geographic regions, particularly, predictors concerning vomiting, gastroenteritis, and norovirus in the vulnerable populations and historical terms such as stomach flu. However, syndromic predictors were less relevant in some age groups and regions likely due to contrasting public health practices between regions and health information–seeking behavior between age groups. Additionally, predictors relevant to one norovirus season may not contribute to other seasons. Data biases, such as low spatial granularity in Google Trends and especially in Wikipedia data, also play a role in the results. Moreover, internet searches can provide insight into mental models, that is, an individual’s conceptual understanding of norovirus infection and transmission, which could be used in public health communication strategies.
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Hunter, John T., e Dorothy M. Bell. "Season and timing of moisture availability predict composition of montane shrub-dominated wetlands at distributional limits in eastern Australia". Australian Journal of Botany 61, n. 4 (2013): 243. http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/bt13017.
Testo completoAbstract (sommario):
We explore the environmental effects on variation in floristic compositional among montane shrub-dominated wetlands at the edge of their geographic distribution within the New England Batholith of eastern Australia. Canonical Correspondence and Redundancy Analyses revealed patterns and gradients in vascular plant species and families of bog communities. Variance partitioning quantified the relative contributions to variation in: (1) species composition; and (2) family composition due to climate, space, and landscape variables. Eleven of the 55 explanatory variables explained 29.2% of the total variance in the species dataset. Climatic factors were overall the best explanatory variables followed by spatial and then landscape characteristics. We found that climate variables were of most importance in determining whether shrub-dominated wetlands will occur at all and also their composition, which is in contrast to results from other studies not conducted at the edge of community distribution. Climate variables associated with seasonality were found to be highly significant correlates of composition as has been found for montane shrub-dominated wetlands in other parts of Australia. The season in which moisture availability becomes critical varies across different rainfall climatic zones. Under current predicated changes in regional climate, it is likely that an increase in variability and seasonality of climate will cause a retraction in the distribution of Australian montane bogs.
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Bell, Michael C., Jon M. Elson e Julian T. Addison. "The effects of spatial targeting of fishing effort on the distribution of the Norway lobster,Nephrops norvegicus,on the Farn Deeps grounds, northeast England". New Zealand Journal of Marine and Freshwater Research 39, n. 5 (settembre 2005): 1023–37. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00288330.2005.9517373.
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Meattey, D. E., S. R. McWilliams, P. W. C. Paton, C. Lepage, S. G. Gilliland, L. Savoy, G. H. Olsen e J. E. Osenkowski. "Annual cycle of White-winged Scoters (Melanitta fusca) in eastern North America: migratory phenology, population delineation, and connectivity". Canadian Journal of Zoology 96, n. 12 (dicembre 2018): 1353–65. http://dx.doi.org/10.1139/cjz-2018-0121.
Testo completoAbstract (sommario):
Understanding full annual cycle movements of long-distance migrants is essential for delineating populations, assessing connectivity, evaluating crossover effects between life stages, and informing management strategies for vulnerable or declining species. We used implanted satellite transmitters to track up to 2 years of annual cycle movements of 52 adult female White-winged Scoters (Melanitta fusca (Linnaeus, 1758)) captured in the eastern United States and Canada. We used these data to document annual cycle phenology; delineate migration routes; identify primary areas used during winter, stopover, breeding, and molt; and assess the strength of migratory connectivity and spatial population structure. Most White-winged Scoters wintered along the Atlantic coast from Nova Scotia to southern New England, with some on Lake Ontario. White-winged Scoters followed four migration routes to breeding areas from Quebec to the Northwest Territories. Principal postbreeding molting areas were in James Bay and the St. Lawrence River estuary. Migration phenology was synchronous regardless of winter or breeding origin. Cluster analyses delineated two primary breeding areas: one molting area and one wintering area. White-winged Scoters demonstrated overall weak to moderate connectivity among life stages, with molting to wintering connectivity the strongest. Thus, White-winged Scoters that winter in eastern North America appear to constitute a single continuous population.
40
Kerr, Lisa A., Jacob P. Kritzer e Steven X. Cadrin. "Strengths and limitations of before–after–control–impact analysis for testing the effects of marine protected areas on managed populations". ICES Journal of Marine Science 76, n. 4 (19 febbraio 2019): 1039–51. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsz014.
Testo completoAbstract (sommario):
Abstract Marine protected areas (MPAs) are a common management strategy for conserving marine resources, but it can be challenging to evaluate their effectiveness for meeting management objectives. Measuring the effectiveness of MPAs is particularly challenging in dynamic and changing environments where other management approaches are simultaneously implemented. Before–after–control–impact (BACI) analysis is a tool that offers a simple and robust design for evaluating complex effects. However, design and interpretation of a BACI analysis is not always straightforward. The goal of this study was to explore the potential for BACI to evaluate MPA performance in a system simultaneously impacted by other management measures and environmental change. We develop a typology of interpretations of BACI results based on the main and interaction effects of the model, categorized by the extent to which dynamics inside and outside of the MPA are independent. Furthermore, we examine how decisions about the spatial and temporal design of the study, and the focal species and response variables, can determine which outcomes from within the typology are evident through BACI applications to New England groundfish area closures. We identify strengths and limitations of the BACI approach and demonstrate that BACI is a valuable but imperfect tool for evaluating MPAs.
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Cleasby, IR, LJ Wilson, R. Crawford, E. Owen, Y. Rouxel e M. Bolton. "Assessing bycatch risk from gillnet fisheries for three species of diving seabird in the UK". Marine Ecology Progress Series 684 (17 febbraio 2022): 157–79. http://dx.doi.org/10.3354/meps13944.
Testo completoAbstract (sommario):
Incidental mortality (bycatch) in fisheries represents a threat to marine vertebrates. Research has predominantly focussed on bycatch in longline fisheries, but bycatch from gillnet fisheries is of increasing concern. To address this concern, we combined comprehensive biologging data sets and multiple sources of fishing effort data to assess the spatial overlap of 3 diving seabird species during the breeding season (common guillemot Uria aalge, razorbill Alca torda and European shag Phalacrocorax aristotelis) with UK gillnet fisheries. Species distribution models based on birds’ diving behaviour identified areas of elevated bycatch risk where high levels of diving activity and fishing effort coincided. In addition, we identified times of day and water depths where diving activity, and hence bycatch risk, may be concentrated. Bycatch risk hotspots for all 3 species were identified along the north-east coast of England. Risk hotspots were also identified along the Pembrokeshire coast for both auk species and along the Cornish coast for shag. Lack of fishing effort data for smaller vessels made it difficult to assess seabird-fishery overlap in Scottish waters. Across species, diving activity was lower at night. For razorbill and guillemot, dive depth tended to increase at sunrise and decrease after sunset. For shag, dive depth showed no diel pattern but was associated with water depth. Our findings should assist in targeting spatio-temporal measures and designing deterrent devices to reduce bycatch. However, scarcity of data on the behaviour of gillnet fishers at comparable spatio-temporal resolution as seabird movement data remains a constraint to fully understanding seabird-fisheries interactions.
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Hill, Edward M., Naomi S. Prosser, Eamonn Ferguson, Jasmeet Kaler, Martin J. Green, Matt J. Keeling e Michael J. Tildesley. "Modelling livestock infectious disease control policy under differing social perspectives on vaccination behaviour". PLOS Computational Biology 18, n. 7 (14 luglio 2022): e1010235. http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010235.
Testo completoAbstract (sommario):
The spread of infection amongst livestock depends not only on the traits of the pathogen and the livestock themselves, but also on the veterinary health behaviours of farmers and how this impacts their implementation of disease control measures. Controls that are costly may make it beneficial for individuals to rely on the protection offered by others, though that may be sub-optimal for the population. Failing to account for socio-behavioural properties may produce a substantial layer of bias in infectious disease models. We investigated the role of heterogeneity in vaccine response across a population of farmers on epidemic outbreaks amongst livestock, caused by pathogens with differential speed of spread over spatial landscapes of farms for two counties in England (Cumbria and Devon). Under different compositions of three vaccine behaviour groups (precautionary, reactionary, non-vaccination), we evaluated from population- and individual-level perspectives the optimum threshold distance to premises with notified infection that would trigger responsive vaccination by the reactionary vaccination group. We demonstrate a divergence between population and individual perspectives in the optimal scale of reactive voluntary vaccination response. In general, minimising the population-level perspective cost requires a broader reactive uptake of the intervention, whilst optimising the outcome for the average individual increased the likelihood of larger scale disease outbreaks. When the relative cost of vaccination was low and the majority of premises had undergone precautionary vaccination, then adopting a perspective that optimised the outcome for an individual gave a broader spatial extent of reactive response compared to a perspective wanting to optimise outcomes for everyone in the population. Under our assumed epidemiological context, the findings identify livestock disease intervention receptiveness and cost combinations where one would expect strong disagreement between the intervention stringency that is best from the perspective of a stakeholder responsible for supporting the livestock industry compared to a sole livestock owner. Were such discord anticipated and achieving a consensus view across perspectives desired, the findings may also inform those managing veterinary health policy the requisite reduction in intervention cost and/or the required extent of nurturing beneficial community attitudes towards interventions.
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de Castro, Carlos, Peter J. Wright, Colin P. Millar e Steven J. Holmes. "Evidence for substock dynamics within whiting (Merlangius merlangus) management regions". ICES Journal of Marine Science 70, n. 6 (22 maggio 2013): 1118–27. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fst027.
Testo completoAbstract (sommario):
Abstractde Castro, C., Wright, P. J., Millar, C. P., and Holmes, S. J. 2013. Evidence for substock dynamics within whiting (Merlangius merlangus) management regions. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 70: 1118–1127. Whiting in the North Sea and Eastern Channel is currently assessed as a single management unit. However, several studies suggest that this stock may be comprised of more than one subpopulation within a larger metapopulation. A key characteristic of metapopulations is asynchrony in the dynamics of component subpopulations. In this study, indices of recruitment and spawning–stock biomass (SSB) were developed to test for asynchrony across putative subpopulations in the North Sea and west of Scotland. Differences in SSB and recruitment trends were detected, consistent with expectations from metapopulation dynamics. At least three different subpopulation components (southern and northern North Sea, and west of Scotland) were indicated on the basis of differing trends. Analysis of spatial distribution suggested that the boundary between the northern and southern North Sea subpopulations was associated with the change in bathymetry that extended from the coast of Norfolk in England to the southern tip of Norway. The current management system for whiting in the North Sea assumes a unit stock, which is contrary to current sources of biological evidence and seems inappropriate. Consideration of a north–south split along the boundary detected should be beneficial for both assessment and management of the resource.
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Lo Iacono, Giovanni, Alasdair J. C. Cook, Gianne Derks, Lora E. Fleming, Nigel French, Emma L. Gillingham, Laura C. Gonzalez Villeta et al. "A mathematical, classical stratification modeling approach to disentangling the impact of weather on infectious diseases: A case study using spatio-temporally disaggregated Campylobacter surveillance data for England and Wales". PLOS Computational Biology 20, n. 1 (18 gennaio 2024): e1011714. http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1011714.
Testo completoAbstract (sommario):
Disentangling the impact of the weather on transmission of infectious diseases is crucial for health protection, preparedness and prevention. Because weather factors are co-incidental and partly correlated, we have used geography to separate out the impact of individual weather parameters on other seasonal variables using campylobacteriosis as a case study. Campylobacter infections are found worldwide and are the most common bacterial food-borne disease in developed countries, where they exhibit consistent but country specific seasonality. We developed a novel conditional incidence method, based on classical stratification, exploiting the long term, high-resolution, linkage of approximately one-million campylobacteriosis cases over 20 years in England and Wales with local meteorological datasets from diagnostic laboratory locations. The predicted incidence of campylobacteriosis increased by 1 case per million people for every 5° (Celsius) increase in temperature within the range of 8°–15°. Limited association was observed outside that range. There were strong associations with day-length. Cases tended to increase with relative humidity in the region of 75–80%, while the associations with rainfall and wind-speed were weaker. The approach is able to examine multiple factors and model how complex trends arise, e.g. the consistent steep increase in campylobacteriosis in England and Wales in May-June and its spatial variability. This transparent and straightforward approach leads to accurate predictions without relying on regression models and/or postulating specific parameterisations. A key output of the analysis is a thoroughly phenomenological description of the incidence of the disease conditional on specific local weather factors. The study can be crucially important to infer the elusive mechanism of transmission of campylobacteriosis; for instance, by simulating the conditional incidence for a postulated mechanism and compare it with the phenomenological patterns as benchmark. The findings challenge the assumption, commonly made in statistical models, that the transformed mean rate of infection for diseases like campylobacteriosis is a mere additive and combination of the environmental variables.
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Yue, X., N. Unger, T. F. Keenan, X. Zhang e C. S. Vogel. "Probing the past 30 year phenology trend of US deciduous forests". Biogeosciences Discussions 12, n. 8 (24 aprile 2015): 6037–80. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/bgd-12-6037-2015.
Testo completoAbstract (sommario):
Abstract. Phenology is experiencing dramatic changes over deciduous forests in the US. Estimates of trends in phenology on the continental scale are uncertain, however, with studies failing to agree on both the magnitude and spatial distribution of trends in spring and autumn. This is due to the sparsity of in situ records, uncertainties associated with remote sensing data, and the regional focus of many studies. It has been suggested that reported trends are a result of recent temperature changes, though multiple processes are thought to be involved and the nature of the temperature forcing remains unknown. To date, no study has directly attributed long-term phenological trends to individual forcings across the US through integrating observations with models. Here, we construct an extensive database of ground measurements of phenological events across the US, and use it to calibrate and evaluate a suite of phenology models. The models use variations of the accumulative temperature summation, with additional chilling requirements for spring phenology and photoperiod limitation for autumn. Including a chilling requirement or photoperiod limitation does not improve model performance, suggesting that temperature change, especially in spring and autumn, is the dominant driver of the observed trend during the past 3 decades. Our results show that phenological trends are not uniform over the contiguous US, with a significant advance of 0.34 day yr−1 for the spring budburst in the East, a delay of 0.15 day yr−1 for the autumn dormancy onset in the Northeast and West, but no evidence of change elsewhere. Relative to the 1980s, the growing season in the 2000s is extended by about 1 week (3–4%) in the East, New England, and the upper Rocky Mountains forests. These results help reconcile conflicting reports of phenological trends in the literature, and directly attribute observed trends to long-term changes in temperature.
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Kettlety, Tom, James P. Verdon, Antony Butcher, Matthew Hampson e Lucy Craddock. "High-Resolution Imaging of the ML 2.9 August 2019 Earthquake in Lancashire, United Kingdom, Induced by Hydraulic Fracturing during Preston New Road PNR-2 Operations". Seismological Research Letters 92, n. 1 (28 ottobre 2020): 151–69. http://dx.doi.org/10.1785/0220200187.
Testo completoAbstract (sommario):
Abstract Hydraulic fracturing (HF) at Preston New Road (PNR), Lancashire, United Kingdom, in August 2019, induced a number of felt earthquakes. The largest event (ML 2.9) occurred on 26 August 2019, approximately three days after HF operations at the site had stopped. Following this, in November 2019, the United Kingdom Government announced a moratorium on HF for shale gas in England. Here we provide an analysis of the microseismic observations made during this case of HF-induced fault activation. More than 55,000 microseismic events were detected during operations using a downhole array, the vast majority measuring less than Mw 0. Event locations revealed the growth of hydraulic fractures and their interaction with several preexisting structures. The spatiotemporal distribution of events suggests that a hydraulic pathway was created between the injection points and a nearby northwest–southeast-striking fault, on which the largest events occurred. The aftershocks of the ML 2.9 event clearly delineate the rupture plane, with their spatial distribution forming a halo of activity around the mainshock rupture area. Across clusters of events, the magnitude distributions are distinctly bimodal, with a lower Gutenberg–Richter b-value for events above Mw 0, suggesting a break in scaling between events associated with hydraulic fracture propagation, and events associated with activation of the fault. This poses a challenge for mitigation strategies that rely on extrapolating microseismicity observed during injection to forecast future behavior. The activated fault was well oriented for failure in the regional stress field, significantly more so than the fault activated during previous operations at PNR in 2018. The differing orientations within the stress field likely explain why this PNR-2 fault produced larger events compared with the 2018 sequence, despite receiving a smaller volume of injected fluid. This indicates that fault orientation and in situ stress conditions play a key role in controlling the severity of seismicity induced by HF.
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Williams, Gordon Terrell. "Cost-effective landscape revegetation and restoration of a grazing property on the Northern Tablelands of New South Wales: 65 years of change and adaptation at ‘Eastlake'". Rangeland Journal 39, n. 6 (2017): 461. http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/rj17110.
Testo completoAbstract (sommario):
This paper describes the restoration of woody vegetation on my family’s grazing property, ‘Eastlake’ (1202 ha) on the Northern Tablelands of New South Wales. We commenced revegetating ‘Eastlake’ in 1981 to reverse the loss of native tree cover due to New England dieback and improve shelter for livestock and pastures to increase farm profitability. We treated the revegetation program as a long-term business investment and, apart from a 5-year period of overseas employment, have allocated annual funding in the farm business plan ever since. Our decision was based on the benefits of shelter to livestock and pasture production. Once we began revegetation, aesthetics, amenity and the positive impact on the capital value of the farm became important motivations. More recently, increasing the farm’s biodiversity and resilience, and conserving native flora and fauna, have also motivated us. Our strategy is to link upland areas of remnant timber with ridgeline corridors of planted vegetation to maximise shelter, minimise pasture production losses and provide dispersal corridors for fauna and wildlife habitat. Initially, we planted introduced species of tree and shrub, but now we revegetate mainly with native species, as well as fencing off remnant timber to encourage natural regeneration and direct seeding understorey species (mainly acacias) in degraded remnants and elsewhere. Our target is to increase the area of fenced-off and planted timber cover from 8% to 10% over the next few years, which will take the proportion of total effective timber cover from ~8% in 1980 to 18% of the property. The key lessons are to: (1) plan, prepare, plant the right tree or shrub in the right place for the right purpose, and post-planting care (the ‘4 Ps’); (2) integrate revegetation into the whole-farm business plan; (3) finance the work slowly over time with the aid of a spatial farm plan; and (4) adapt to changing circumstances, values and understanding. Research is required to help farmers understand the role of on-farm biodiversity in contributing to the health of the farm business, owner–managers and their families and the farm environment, as well as to regional economies, communities, landscapes and society more generally.
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Yue, X., N. Unger, T. F. Keenan, X. Zhang e C. S. Vogel. "Probing the past 30-year phenology trend of US deciduous forests". Biogeosciences 12, n. 15 (6 agosto 2015): 4693–709. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-4693-2015.
Testo completoAbstract (sommario):
Abstract. Phenology is experiencing dramatic changes over deciduous forests in the USA. Estimates of trends in phenology on the continental scale are uncertain, however, with studies failing to agree on both the magnitude and spatial distribution of trends in spring and autumn. This is due to the sparsity of in situ records, uncertainties associated with remote sensing data, and the regional focus of many studies. It has been suggested that reported trends are a result of recent temperature changes, though multiple processes are thought to be involved and the nature of the temperature forcing remains unknown. To date, no study has directly attributed long-term phenological trends to individual forcings across the USA through integrating observations with models. Here, we construct an extensive database of ground measurements of phenological events across the USA, and use it to calibrate and evaluate a suite of phenology models. The models use variations of the accumulative temperature summation, with additional chilling requirements for spring phenology and photoperiod limitation for autumn. Including a chilling requirement or photoperiod limitation does not improve model performance, suggesting that temperature change, especially in spring and autumn, is likely the dominant driver of the observed trend during the past 3 decades. Our results show that phenological trends are not uniform over the contiguous USA, with a significant advance of 0.34 day yr−1 for the spring budburst in the east, a delay of 0.15 day yr−1 for the autumn dormancy onset in the northeast and west, but no evidence of change elsewhere. Relative to the 1980s, the growing season in the 2000s is extended by about 1 week (3–4 %) in the east, New England, and the upper Rocky Mountains forests. Additional sensitivity tests show that intraspecific variations may not influence the predicted phenological trends. These results help reconcile conflicting reports of phenological trends in the literature, and directly attribute observed trends to long-term changes in temperature.
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Jenneson, Victoria, Graham P. Clarke, Darren C. Greenwood, Becky Shute, Bethan Tempest, Tim Rains e Michelle A. Morris. "Exploring the Geographic Variation in Fruit and Vegetable Purchasing Behaviour Using Supermarket Transaction Data". Nutrients 14, n. 1 (30 dicembre 2021): 177. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/nu14010177.
Testo completoAbstract (sommario):
The existence of dietary inequalities is well-known. Dietary behaviours are impacted by the food environment and are thus likely to follow a spatial pattern. Using 12 months of transaction records for around 50,000 ‘primary’ supermarket loyalty card holders, this study explores fruit and vegetable purchasing at the neighbourhood level across the city of Leeds, England. Determinants of small-area-level fruit and vegetable purchasing were identified using multiple linear regression. Results show that fruit and vegetable purchasing is spatially clustered. Areas purchasing fewer fruit and vegetable portions typically had younger residents, were less affluent, and spent less per month with the retailer.
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Rao, Xiaoqin, e Qian Yong. "Critical Cognitive Interpretation of The Time Machine from the Perspective of Proximization Theory". International Journal of Linguistics, Literature and Translation 5, n. 5 (6 maggio 2022): 102–11. http://dx.doi.org/10.32996/ijllt.2022.5.5.13.
Testo completoAbstract (sommario):
As a product of cognitive linguistics and critical discourse analysis, proximization theory is one of the emerging research directions in the field of linguistics. Most of the current research using this theory focuses on political conflict topics, and there are fewer studies using it for analysis of literary works. The present study examines The Time Machine from the perspective of proximization theory (PT) to unveil the legitimation strategies of science fiction qualitatively and quantitatively. The objectives are to enrich the explanation power of this theory and analyze how it can avail the expression and description of the implicit theme of science fiction. We apply CLAWS to annotate the whole novel, search and calculate the frequency of each lexico-grammatical item through AntConc 3.5.9, and then analyze the novella through proximization theory in spatial, temporal, and axiological dimensions. Findings show that: spatially, the author subsumes the most salient Time Traveler to the camp of IDC, and with the first-person narrator and sense verbs, the whole picture of decay can make the readers horribly feel on the spot in person toward a dim human destiny; temporally, Wells prefers the past-present concept shift than the future-present. The former is to legitimize his critique of over-reliance on science and severe class exploitation, and the latter is to make predictions of a future society that may face decay. The use of contrasting construal makes the novel's plot more mysterious, stimulates the reader's interest, and paves the way for the revelation of the theme; axiologically, considering that England put science and industrial development on the pedestal at that time and that prevailing evolution theory puts people in a period of blind optimism, Wells cautions against the trap of utopia and the swamp of materialism with emphasis on negative ideologies and values of ODC. The analysis of literary works from the perspective of PT is conducive to the visualization of the implicit themes expressed in the novel, full of absurdity and exaggeration with data support, highlighting the author's humanistic concern and broadening the research object of proximization theory.