Tesi sul tema "Séismes – Prévision – Gestion du risque"
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Mita, Mara. "Assessment of seismic displacements of existing landslides through numerical modelling and simplified methods". Electronic Thesis or Diss., Université Gustave Eiffel, 2023. http://www.theses.fr/2023UEFL2075.
Landslides are common secondary effects related to earthquakes which can be responsible for greater damages than the ground shaking alone. Predicting these phenomena is therefore essential for risk management in seismic regions. Nowadays, landslides permanent co-seismic displacements are assessed by the traditional « rigid-sliding block » method proposed by Newmark (1965). Despite its limitations, this method has two advantages: i) relatively short computation times, ii) compatibility with GIS software for regional-scale analyses. Alternatively, more complex numerical analyses can be performed to simulate seismic waves propagation into slopes and related effects. However, due to their longer computation times, their use is usually limited to slope-scale analyses. This study aims at better understanding in which conditions (i.e. combinations of introduced relevant parameters), analytical and numerical methods predict different landslides earthquake-induced displacements. At this regard, 216 2D landslide prototypes were designed by combining geometrical and geotechnical parameters inferred by statistical analysis on data collected by literature review. Landslide prototypes were forced by 17 signals with constant Arias Intensity (AI ~ 0.1 m/s) and variable mean period. Results allowed defining a preliminary Random Forest model to predict a priori, the expected difference between displacements by the two methods. Analysis of results allowed: i) identifying parameters affecting displacement variation according to the two methods, ii) concluding that in here considered AI level, computed displacements differences are negligible in most of the cases
Caillot, Véronique. "Quantification statistique et étude expérimentale de mouvements sismiques : application à l'évaluation du risque". Grenoble 1, 1992. http://www.theses.fr/1992GRE10033.
Cömert, Baechler Nazan. "La vulnérabilité de la Turquie au risque sismique : une analyse à partir des séismes de 1999". Paris 5, 2008. http://www.theses.fr/2008PA05H061.
The 1999 Marmara earthquakes revealed how much Turkey was still highly vulnerable to seismic hazards, from a physical, institutional and individual point of view. Analysing the whole process of disaster management, that includes the pre-disaster period, the emergency period and the reconstruction period, helps understand many of the malfunctions of the disaster management policies that can explain such a heavy toll. Vulnerability is eventually the result of the lack of institutional response capacity, that induces behaviors and explains the weakness of the individual response capacity. Given the failures of the Marmara disaster management, the vulnerability revealed in this case can be considered as a sign of what could be the vulnerability during forthcoming earthquakes
Fall, Malick. "Trois essais sur la modélisation de la liquidité de marché et de financement". Thesis, Rennes 1, 2016. http://www.theses.fr/2016REN1G031.
Market liquidity refers to the ease with which assets can be sold without loss with respect to their fundamental values. Liquidity is a source of risk but also compensation. In this thesis, we focus on these two aspects. We propose a new methodology to estimate the liquidity risk premium based on “unobserved components” models. In terms of risk, we propose to combine density forecasts to better predict intra-day liquidity. We also model funding liquidity. Funding liquidity refers to the ability to settle obligations with immediacy. We study this risk for banks, that is, the possibility that over a specific horizon the bank will become unable to settle obligations with immediacy. This risk is pivotal as shown by the major role it played in the financial crisis of 2008. We created several measures allowing to assess the risk exposure of banks. Our model can also be used to stress-test banking companies and to quantify contagion risk
Chabbar, El Miloudi. "La gestion du risque de change : la banque au service de l'entreprise". Rouen, 1987. http://www.theses.fr/1987ROUEL024.
Nowadays, in order to survive, to prosper and to be competitive, french natinal industries are obliged to engage them selves in commercial and financial transactions abroad. However, these transactions which are often conducted in foreign currencies requise the setting-up of a management structure to protect them against exchange risks. An efficient management of exchange risks depends in fact on the mastering of the prevision of exchange rates evolution. The study we carried out on ten big french banks revealed that, as a result of lack of necessary means and competent staff, the majority of firms rely on bank conselling services for currency management. However, the company treasurer must be able to define his own exchange strategy. At present, the best trade policy which seeks to contain exchange risks is that which chooses the ECU as invoicemoney. The ECU being the most stable currency, has the qualities of the currency of last ressort
Torny, Didier. "Un seul cas suffit : une étude sociologique de l'engagement du futur en biomédecine". Paris, EHESS, 2001. http://www.theses.fr/2001EHES0066.
Le, Blanc Antoine. "Les politiques de conservation du patrimoine urbain comme outils de gestion du risque sismique : trois exemples en Italie : Noto, Assise, Gémone". Phd thesis, Université de Provence - Aix-Marseille I, 2006. http://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00130950.
Large, Aurore. "Une meilleure gestion patrimoniale des réseaux d'eau potable : le modèle de prévision du renouvellement à long terme OPTIMEAU". Thesis, Bordeaux, 2016. http://www.theses.fr/2016BORD0086/document.
In developed countries, drinking water is distributed to households. This comfort requires a long networkwith a high value. To optimize resources and performance, it is important to renew pipe sectionsat the best possible time. This thesis presents the short (1-3 years), medium and long term (> 30 years)models commonly employed. The short-term processes seem quite effective, but long term methods remainrough. The OPTIMEAU model proposes a long-term approach to get a prospective overview ofpipes and improve its management, while remaining connected to the technical practices at short-termlevel. This approach, based on survival statistical models, is tested using actual data of three Europeanwater services : SEDIF (Syndicat des Eaux d’Ile de France), Grand Lyon and eauservice Lausanne inSwitzerland. The originality of this model lies in the estimation of the past decommissioning age distribution,keystone in the construction of eleven indicators related to finance, achievements and futureperformance of water utilities
Heude, Jacques. "Les tremblements de terre dans la baie de San Francisco : perception, prévention et gestion du risque sismique : une étude géographique". Paris 1, 2000. http://www.theses.fr/2000PA010695.
Baillard, Marie-Denise. "Analyse comparée des politiques publiques de gestion du risque volcanique dans les caraïbes insulaires : le cas de la Guadeloupe en 1976 et de Monserrat en 1997". Thesis, Antilles, 2018. http://www.theses.fr/2018ANTI0218/document.
The islands of the Caribbean basin are among the territories in the world having the distinction of being exposed to all types of natural hazard except avalanche risk. However, the overall assessment of their effective consideration remains unsatisfactory: Indeed, there are gaps in both the information of the population and the level of "administrative and technical" means of response to risk. Volcanic risk in particular, although affecting eleven territories in the Lesser Antilles, is relatively "overshadowed" by other risks in government agendas. However, the "powder keg" of the Caribbean are mostly active. Moreover, because of their small size and the concentration of populations and infrastructures around volcanoes; island territories have increased vulnerability. Violent demonstrations can lead, as has been shown in the cases of Mount Pelee in Martinique (1902) and more recently that of the Soufrière Hills in Montserrat (1995 to the present day), a particularly heavy human toll. Above all, even with the risk of loss of life due to the forecast, a major volcanic crisis is synonymous with economic disaster.Is the exceptional character of volcanic events enough to explain this assessment? This first interrogation leads us to question the mechanisms characterizing the volcanic risk management in the insular Caribbean.Our study thus focuses on the two crises that have been the most debated in terms of feedback: that of Soufrière Guadeloupe in 1976 and that of Soufrière Hills Montserrat, which peaked in 1997. The comparison of public crisis management policies studied allows us to identify the factors guiding the strategy of the competent authorities upstream and downstream of crises
Allinne, Cécile. "Les villes antiques du Rhône et le risque fluvial : gestion des inondations dans les villes romaines : l'exemple de la basse vallée du Rhône". Aix-Marseille 1, 2005. http://www.theses.fr/2005AIX10084.
Lacambre, Anne. "Aléas et risques naturels en montagne : apports et limites d'un Système d'Information Géographique (SIG) : application au haut bassin versant du Drac (Hautes-Alpes, France)". Paris 4, 2001. http://www.theses.fr/2001PA040068.
Erosional forms and processes are studied in the two alpine valleys which constitue the Drac springs (Orcières and Champoléon communes, Hautes-Alpes, France). In addition to the inventory of the areas concerned by the numerous hazards and risks (avalanches, floods, debris flows, landslides), the population perception of these risks is analysed. But, to understand the functionning of the erosional processes, and especially their setting off causes, a Geographical Information System (GIS) is created. The greatest number of the natural environment parameters are to be considered, thanks to thematic maps (topographic, climatic, lithologic, biogeographic data). The intersection of all these data is done to create hazards and risks maps. Finally remarks are carried out on the developped methodology. Although the GIS contains a few weak points, this method remains an essential tool to deal with development questions and particularly natural hazards and risks in mountainous valleys where man is confronted with numerous erosional processes
Kreis, Nicolas. "Modélisation des crues des rivières de moyenne montagne pour la gestion intégrée du risque d'inondation : application à la vallée de la Thur (Haut-Rhin)". Phd thesis, ENGREF (AgroParisTech), 2004. http://pastel.archives-ouvertes.fr/pastel-00001251.
Allard, Simon. "Influence du taux de change sur l'évaluation des projets miniers vu sous l'angle des options réelles". Thesis, Université Laval, 2007. http://www.theses.ulaval.ca/2007/24624/24624.pdf.
With, Lauriane. "Approche géohistorique de la gestion et de la prévention du risque d'inondation : le cas de la vallée de la Lauch (Haut-Rhin) de 1778 à nos jours". Thesis, Mulhouse, 2014. http://www.theses.fr/2014MULH4452/document.
Among the natural hazards, the flood risk is the most frequent and the most harmful in France with about 50 % of the municipalities exposed. In the Haut-Rhin department, 80 % of the municipalities are concerned. We have chosen this subject because no historic study exists about floods in Alsace and especially about the Lauch valley, where the last big events have taken place. In front of the impossibility to eradicate the risk, the Man committed palliative actions to protect himself through history. How have the historic events been taken into consideration in policies of management and prevention of the flood risk in the Lauch valley for more than two centuries ? To answer this question, we have used a diachronic approach which begins with the disastrous event of February 1990, and adopted an interdisciplinary method. Based on an important corpus of sources, this thesis puts in perspective the evolution of the management of the floods over the period considered according to the hydrological events restored via a regressive method, the stakes, the very contrasted political contexts and the actors, over the local, national and European plans. This thesis is part of a logic of applied reasoning and has for ambition to improve the information about the phenomena and to constitute a "basis of scientific knowledge" for a better control of the risk. This way, it seems fundamental to know flood hazard to be able to anticipate it, to manage it better and to protect ourselves
Promsopha, Gwendoline. "Allocation des terres agricoles et gestion des risques de subsistance". Thesis, Paris 10, 2012. http://www.theses.fr/2012PA100169/document.
This PhD research proposes to study the relationship between informal risk-coping strategies and the nature of land allocation. Informal risk-coping mechanisms are studied here as one potential factor in the failure of land market reforms and the persistence of `non-market' exchange -gifts or free loans. In particular, we show that the bipolar view of land tenure, which opposes `customary' to `market' transfers, does not adequately approach informal risk-coping motivations in land transfers. Two hypotheses are analysed: first, in the absence of insurance markets and public social protection, land has a `safety net' function and households do not sell land but prefer other types of transfers (which retain part of the land's `safety net' function). Secondly, informal risk-coping leads households to participate to hybrid forms of transfers (neither market nor non-market) allowing to combine risk-coping motives with other types of economic necessities. Those two hypotheses are then looked at empirically in two case studies: in Vietnam, where households sell their land only if they are economically stable or have suffered income shocks (distress sales); and in Thailand, where a survey has been done among permanent rural-urban migrants. This surveyconfirms that informal risk-coping slows down land sale markets and sustains transfers such as free-loans. Finally, the Thai data identify traditional risk-sharing institutions in the allocation of land, especially through intra-family free-loans or `disguised rentals'. As a main conclusion, insurance and public protection policies could have a key role in the evaluation of land allocation systems in Thailand and Vietnam
Morin, Julie. "Gestion institutionnelle et réponses des populations face aux crises volcaniques : études de cas à La Réunion et en Grande Comore". Phd thesis, Université de la Réunion, 2012. http://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00863366.
Boudou, Martin. "Approche multidisciplinaire pour la caractérisation d’inondations remarquables : enseignements tirés de neuf évènements en France (1910-2010)". Thesis, Montpellier 3, 2015. http://www.theses.fr/2015MON30057/document.
The occurrence of a 100 year flood in the Paris area like the January 1910 flood event is a major issue of concern as its potential economic impacts are today estimated around 30 billion euros. This shows the interest of studying exceptional past flood events for flood risk management. It has recently been confirmed by the European Flood Directive 2007/60/CE, in which article 4 recommends describing the floods that had “significant adverse impacts”. This aspect raises some questions. What does significant adverse impact mean? What is the interest to describe those events? This PhD thesis is focussing on a multidisciplinary approach for characterizing remarkable flood events, term used to qualify the 176 flood events selected during the Preliminary Risk Assessment of 2011 into the French National Historical Flood database (BDHI).An evaluation grid, based on the hydrometeorological aspects of the flood hazard as well as the socio-economic and politic consequences of the flood event, was applied to the set of 176 floods. The results conducted to select 9 remarkable flood events from 1910 to 2010. Monograph studies are presented on each of these case studies and are used to deal with three questions on the interest of studying past flood events: 1/ what are the factors involved in the hazard process leading to a remarkable flood event? ; 2/ does a retrospective analysis helps to understand the main explicative factors of flood mortality? ; 3/ how does the society manage a remarkable flood event?The analysis is especially supplied by the use of mapping which offers some issues to better understanding the different spatio-temporal dynamics and the main factors involved in a remarkable flood event
Liu, Jie. "Failure prognostics by support vector regression of time series data under stationary/nonstationary environmental and operational conditions". Thesis, Châtenay-Malabry, Ecole centrale de Paris, 2015. http://www.theses.fr/2015ECAP0019/document.
This Ph. D. work is motivated by the possibility of monitoring the conditions of components of energy systems for their extended and safe use, under proper practice of operation and adequate policies of maintenance. The aim is to develop a Support Vector Regression (SVR)-based framework for predicting time series data under stationary/nonstationary environmental and operational conditions. Single SVR and SVR-based ensemble approaches are developed to tackle the prediction problem based on both small and large datasets. Strategies are proposed for adaptively updating the single SVR and SVR-based ensemble models in the existence of pattern drifts. Comparisons with other online learning approaches for kernel-based modelling are provided with reference to time series data from a critical component in Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) provided by Electricité de France (EDF). The results show that the proposed approaches achieve comparable prediction results, considering the Mean Squared Error (MSE) and Mean Relative Error (MRE), in much less computation time. Furthermore, by analyzing the geometrical meaning of the Feature Vector Selection (FVS) method proposed in the literature, a novel geometrically interpretable kernel method, named Reduced Rank Kernel Ridge Regression-II (RRKRR-II), is proposed to describe the linear relations between a predicted value and the predicted values of the Feature Vectors (FVs) selected by FVS. Comparisons with several kernel methods on a number of public datasets prove the good prediction accuracy and the easy-of-tuning of the hyperparameters of RRKRR-II
Vallotton, Jérémie. "La décision publique et la crise". Thesis, Mulhouse, 2016. http://www.theses.fr/2016MULH5291.
The public authorities set up a patchwork of relationships determining the standard circuit of adoption and enforcement of public decision, designed to operate within a given institutional framework, in a subsided political climate, and according to strict procedures. Yet, whether we seek to prevent a crisis or it already occured, the crisis, in its own self, questions the efficiency of public decision and even calls the logical sequencing of the various partaking elements into question. The current thesis aims at unvealing what should be the determining factors for public action facing a crisis, through the study of the laws of human action and their permanent and variable features
Cremaschi, Damien. "Prix des matières premières dans le domaine automobile : une analyse économétrique de la dynamique du prix des plastiques". Thesis, Paris 9, 2012. http://www.theses.fr/2012PA090060.
The automotive industry is increasingly dependent on plastic materials whose price level and volatility have risen sharply over the past decade due to the assumed effect of fluctuations in crude oil prices, which is the key feedstock in the production of final products such as plastics. This thesis aims to provide econometric tools to analyze, understand, and manage the risk of price volatility of major plastics materials consumed in the automotive industry. Using the cointegration methodology, we show that long-term equilibrium relationship and short-term dynamics reveal the transmission mechanism of input prices changes from the upstream market to the prices of plastics materials on the downstream market. The significant cointegration relationships between petrochemical and crude oil prices justify the development of hedging strategies against inputs prices fluctuation and the estimation of error correction models that should produce better prices forecast
Alaeddine, Houssein. "Un modèle d'optimisation spatio-temporel pour l'évacuation de la population exposée aux catastrophes naturelles : projet ACCELL : évaluation spatio-temporelle de l'ACCessibilité d'Enjeux localisés en situation d'inondation sur le bassin de la Loire". Thesis, Tours, 2014. http://www.theses.fr/2014TOUR1802/document.
The importance of managing an urban site threatened or affected by flooding requires the development of effective evacuation systems. An effective evacuation system has to take into account some constraints such as the transportation traffic which plays an important role as well as others such as the accessibility, necessary human resources and material equipment (vehicles, assembly points, etc...). The main objective of this work is to bring assistance to the technical services and brigade forces in terms of accessibility by providing itineraries with respect to rescue operations and the evacuation of people and goods.We consider the evacuation of a middle size area, exposed to a risk, and more precisely to a risk of flooding. In case of flooding event, the most of inhabitants will be evacuated by themselves, ie., using their personal vehicles. Considered case here, the flooding can be forecast in advance, and then the population has few days (2-4) to evacuate. Our aimis to build an evacuation plan, ie., fixing for each individual the date of departure and the path to reach the assembly point (also called shelter) associated. Evacuation plan must avoid congestion on the roads of evacuation network.Here, we present a spatio-temporal optimization model for the evacuation of the population exposed to natural disasters, and more particularly to a flood risk
Jia, Xiaojuan. "Fuzzy logic based decision support system for mass evacuation of cities prone to coastal or river flood". Phd thesis, Université de Technologie de Compiègne, 2013. http://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00858055.