Tesi sul tema "Risk assessment"
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1
Hrdová, Edita. "Risk Assessment". Master's thesis, Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, 2012. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-194193.
Testo completoAbstract (sommario):
This diploma thesis is focused on companies risk evaluation before endorsement of Loan deriving from business relationships. The aim of this thesis is not only to describe individual steps of risk assessment, but also perfom analysis of particular companies based on available data, i.e. Balance sheet, Profit and Loss statement and external rating and after that propose solution for each company. My analysis will be based on theoretical knowledge, further on experience related to my job role as credit analyst. The aim will be to perform objective analysis of real companies and determine financial health of each of them together with their risk evaluation.
2
Wagner, Simon John, e simonjwagner@gmail com. "DERAILMENT RISK ASSESSMENT". Central Queensland University. Engineering, 2004. http://library-resources.cqu.edu.au./thesis/adt-QCQU/public/adt-QCQU20060720.100637.
Testo completoAbstract (sommario):
There is a large quantity of literature available on longitudinal train dynamics and
risk assessment but nothing that combines these two topics. This thesis is focused at
assessing derailment risks developed due to longitudinal train dynamics. A key
focus of this thesis is to identify strategies that can be field implemented to correctly
manage these risks. This thesis quantifies derailment risk and allows a datum for
comparison. A derailment risk assessment on longitudinal train dynamics was
studied for a 107 vehicle train consist travelling along the Monto and North Coast
Lines in Queensland, Australia. The train consisted of 103 wagons and 4
locomotives with locomotives positioned in groups of two in lead and mid train
positions. The wagons were empty hopper wagons on a track gauge of 1067mm.
The scenarios studied include: the effect of longitudinal impacts on wagon dynamics
in transition curves; and the effects of longitudinal steady forces on wagon dynamics
on curves. Simulation software packages VAMPIRE and CRE-LTS were used.
The effects of longitudinal impacts from in-train forces on wagon dynamics in curves
were studied using longitudinal train simulation and detailed wagon dynamics
simulation. In-train force impacts were produced using a train control action. The
resulting worst-case in-train forces resulting from these simulations were applied to
the coupler pin of the wagon dynamics simulation model. The wagon model was
used to study the effect of these in-train forces when applied in curves and transitions
at an angle to the wagon longitudinal axis. The effects of different levels of coupler
impact forces resulting from different levels of coupling slack were also studied.
Maximum values for wheel unloading and L/V ratio for various curve radii and
coupler slack conditions were identified. The results demonstrated that the
derailment criteria for wheel unloading could be exceeded for a coupler slack of
50mm and 75mm on sharper curves, up to 400m radii.
A detailed study of the effect of steady in-train forces on wagon dynamics on curves
also was completed. Steady in-train forces were applied to a three wagon model
using VAMPIRE. Maximum and minimum values of wheel unloading and L/V ratio
were identified to demonstrate the level of vehicle stability for each scenario. The
results allowed the worse cases of wheel unloading and L/V ratio to be studied in
detail.
Probability density functions were constructed for the occurrence of longitudinal
forces and coupler angles for the Monto and North Coast Lines. Data was simulated
for a coupler slack of 25, 50 and 75mm and force characteristics were further
classified into the occurrences of impact and non-impact forces. These probability
density functions were analysed for each track section to investigate the effects of
coupler slack, track topography and gradient on wagon dynamics. The possible
wagon instability in each of these scenarios was then assessed to give a measure of
the potential consequences of the event. Risk assessment techniques were used to
categorise levels of risk based on the consequences and likelihood of each event. It
was found that for the train configuration simulated, the Monto Line has a higher
derailment risk than the North Coast Line for many of the scenarios studies in this
thesis. For a coupler slack of 25mm no derailment risks were identified, 50mm
coupler slack derailment risks were only identified on the Monto track and the
majority of derailment risks were identified for a 75mm coupler slack.
3
Wang, Andrew J. "Risk allocation for temporal risk assessment". Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/85516.
Testo completoAbstract (sommario):
Thesis: M. Eng., Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, 2013.Cataloged from PDF version of thesis.
Includes bibliographical references (pages 63-64).
Temporal uncertainty arises when performing any activity in the natural world. When activities are composed into temporal plans, then, there is a risk of not meeting the plan requirements. Currently, we do not have quantitatively precise methods for assessing temporal risk of a plan. Existing methods that deal with temporal uncertainty either forgo probabilistic models or try to optimize a single objective, rather than satisfy multiple objectives. This thesis offers a method for evaluating whether a schedule exists that meets a set of temporal constraints, with acceptable risk of failure. Our key insight is to assume a form of risk allocation to each source of temporal uncertainty in our plan, such that we may reformulate the probabilistic plan into an STNU parameterized on the risk allocation. We show that the problem becomes a deterministic one of finding a risk allocation which implies a schedulable STNU within acceptable risk. By leveraging the principles behind STNU analysis, we derive conditions which encode this problem as a convex feasibility program over risk allocations. Furthermore, these conditions may be learned incrementally as temporal conflicts. Thus, to boost computational efficiency, we employ a generate-and-test approach to determine whether a schedule may be found.
by Andrew J. Wang.
M. Eng.
4
Johansen, Inger Lise. "Foundations of risk assessment". Thesis, Norges teknisk-naturvitenskapelige universitet, Institutt for produksjons- og kvalitetsteknikk, 2010. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:no:ntnu:diva-12912.
Testo completoAbstract (sommario):
The purpose of this study is to shed light on the foundations of risk assessment. By exploring the polysemantics of basic concepts and their influence on the process and results of risk assessment, the thesis endeavors to clarify the words of risk assessment and promote reflection among practitioners and scholars. The findings are derived from integration and critique of pioneering and state of the art literature. Risk is a characteristic of the future concerning the uncertain consequences of decisions and contingencies. Understanding risk urges contemplation on fundamental issues of ontology (is risk a real-world property?) and epistemology (what can we know about risk?). The many-faceted concept has been differently interpreted across time, cultures and disciplines. Numerous definitions coexist in dissonance and concordance, caricaturing risk singly or as a combination of events, consequences, probability or uncertainty. The quantitative definition of Kaplan and Garrick (1981) embeds all elements, defining risk as the answer to three questions: 1) What can happen? 2) How likely is it? 3) If it does happen, what are the consequences? In comparison with contending definitions, this triplet definition gains in comprehensibility and relevancy to risk assessment. The defining questions are, however, very capacious and render significant interpretative freedom. Focal to this study is the first question, whose associated terminology is particularly vague and on which focused discussions remain most disturbingly few. An alternative means for grasping the concept of risk is to examine its related counterconcepts. Uncertainty not only makes a central component of risk, it also has a complementary meaning as lack of confidence in the results of risk analysis. Safety is often conceived as freedom from unacceptable risk or the antonym of risk. The conceptually sensitive coupling between risk and safety reveals that the rightness of this claim depends on whether uncertainty is considered part of the second question of Kaplan and Garrick (1981). Security is the equivalent of safety in situations of intentional harm. The moral and analytical complexities of security outdo those of safety since the first question becomes how someone can make something happen. Vulnerability is the lacking ability of a system to resist the impact of an unwanted event and to restore to its original function. The relation between risk and vulnerability is not commutative. A counterconcept to vulnerability is resilience, meaning a system’s ability to bounce back to a reference state after a disturbance. Complementing the negatively connoted concept of risk with resilience offers a positive perspective for mastering the dynamics of future uncertainties. Risk analysis is the process of answering the triplet definition of risk, whereas risk assessment refers to the wider process of risk analysis and risk evaluation. Neither the analytical process nor its results should be considered in isolation from the purpose of risk assessment, which is to inform decision making about risk. Decisions shall be risk-informed, not risk-based, meaning that risk assessment is never the sole input to decisions. The plurality of stakeholders and the prevalence of uncertainties represent two major challenges to risk-informed decision making. Framing analysis by deliberation and informing deliberation by analysis presupposes that decision makers understand the words and results of risk assessment. Hazard is a source of potential harm. Whereas risk pivots on the future realizationof this potential, hazard exists presently and solely at the source. Closely relatedis the concept of threat, which is conceptually reserved to sources of intentionaldamage. There is a plethora of terms marking the intersection between preventionand mitigation in the realization of a hazardous potential. Hazardous event is promoted as the least ambiguous denotation, defined as an event confined to the firstsignificant release of a hazards that will result in harmful exposure if not controlled.Triggering event and safety issues are promising concepts for bridging hazards andhazardous events. Triggering events are the most immediate causes of hazardousevents, while safety issues are one or more hazards in combination with local triggeringevents. Both concepts reflect the calculability and controllability of risk andshould thus be used with caution. Accident scenario is promoted as the answer to the question of what can go wrong. It is a uniquely defined path in an event tree, confined by an initiating event and a corresponding end state. Unfortunately, both the concept itself and the terms that confine are circularly defined. Initiating event is a vague descriptor that in principle can be placed anywhere in the bowtie-diagram. End states are pragmatically conditioned on the purpose of analysis; implicitly through the selection of consequences and explicitly in the relevancy of pivotal events. A principal advice is that any accident scenario shall be terminated in the absence of discrete ramifications.Contrasting the scenario approach to risk assessment with the conventional approach in Norway shows that accident scenario is not imperative to the triplet definition of risk. A revised definition of accident scenario is suggested in initiative to further discussion: An accident scenario is a sequence of events from the hazardous event to a uniquely determined end state of relevance. The study has demonstrated the importance of striving for a clear and consistent terminology. Researchers, practitioners and regulators use the words of risk assessment differently and inconsistently. Not only does this preclude communication internally and across analysis teams, it also leads to erroneous applications of methods and inexpedient use of results. This urges terminological vigilance of every practitioner, as well as further academic and standardization efforts towards aunifying nomenclature. A key challenge is to reconcile the analyst’s need for pragmatic procedures with the decision maker’s call for consistent and communicable results. Ultimately, this is a matter of finding the optimal fit between analysis and deliberation in risk-informed decision making.
5
Tully, Ruth. "Sex offender risk assessment". Thesis, University of Nottingham, 2012. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.664317.
Testo completoAbstract (sommario):
This thesis examined sex offender risk assessment. A systematic review of the literature found that the predictive validity of tools that take an actuarial approach, and tools that take a structured professional judgement (SPJ) approach is promising, but that the quality of available research in this field is variable. Further evaluation of tools taking the SPJ approach was recommended, as was further validation of sex offender risk assessment tools on sex offender sub-groups. A case study of an adult male sex offender demonstrated the complexities involved in sex offender risk assessment in clinical practice, and the challenges clinicians face in making assessments and recommendations following sex offender treatment. Following this, the RM2000/S (Thornton et aI., 2003) was critically appraised, and finally an empirical research study was preformed whereby the predictive validity of the Structured Assessment of Risk and Need Treatment Needs Analysis (SARN TNA; Thornton, 2002) was assessed. Despite widespread use ofthe SARN TNA by the National Offender Management Service (NOMS) of England and Wales, its level of predictive power was found to be small. The findings suggest that the SARN TNA should not be relied on as a predictor scale for sexual recidivism. This highlights the need for further evaluation of the tool, which could result in the method of assigning risk group being modified. The final chapter of the thesis summarises the findings of the thesis chapters, and concludes that further evaluation of the effectiveness of sex offender risk assessment tools is necessary to be able to use these tools to aid defensible decision-making.
6
Bakheet, Moataz Talaat. "Contractors' risk assessment system". Diss., Georgia Institute of Technology, 1995. http://hdl.handle.net/1853/23163.
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Chalk, David. "Risk assessment in litigation". Thesis, University of Winchester, 2014. http://repository.winchester.ac.uk/763/.
Testo completoAbstract (sommario):
This thesis consists of this volume together with the book Risk Assessment in Litigation published by Butterworths in 2001. The research presented as a whole represents work conducted over the period from 1999 to 2013 focussing on the assessment of risk in civil litigation in England and Wales in the context of conditional fee agreement and after the event insurance. The published works that form part of the thesis collectively present ‘doctrinal’ and ‘empirical’ legal research, terms considered in the light of the published works and the research underlying them. The initial research project commenced in 1999 and was funded by the European Social Fund, Blake Lapthorn solicitors and Litigation Protection Limited (an insurance intermediary). That project researched the question of whether and if so how a method or methods of risk assessment could be devised that could form the basis of a training programme for litigation solicitors. The outcomes of that research were a set of risk assessment methods that were later formed into a continuing professional development format and delivered across England and Wales. The methods were also incorporated into the book Risk Assessment in Litigation and into Butterworths Costs Service. The thesis sets out via the published works that a positive answer can be and was given to the initial research question. Part of that answer involves defining and researching tacit knowledge and the difficulties inherent in the transfer of tacit knowledge all of which is explored in chapter four: What is legal research? The present volume develops the topic of probability theory as applied to risk assessment in litigation and reviews the treatment of that topic in the original publication Risk Assessment in Litigation and takes the debate further in light of the decision of the Court of Appeal in Motto & Ors v Trafigura Ltd & Anor [2011] EWCA Civ 1150 where the book is cited in the judgment of Lord Neuberger MR. The research presented in this thesis also consists of detailed analysis of the law relating to the funding of civil litigation under conditional fee agreements and after the event legal expenses insurance. Over the period 1999 to 2013 the published works show a development of the law in this field and a change in government policy in respect of the regulation of conditional fee agreements with attendant changes to the law and therefore the practice of litigation. The impact on risk in litigation of these changes is considered in detail in the published works.
8
Milner, Rebecca. "Comprehensive Suicide Risk Assessment". Digital Commons @ East Tennessee State University, 2018. https://dc.etsu.edu/etsu-works/2973.
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Milner, Rebecca. "Comprehensive Suicide Risk Assessment". Digital Commons @ East Tennessee State University, 2017. https://dc.etsu.edu/etsu-works/2975.
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10
Al, Maqbali Nasser. "Risk assessment of dams". Title page, contents and abstract only, 1999. http://web4.library.adelaide.edu.au/theses/09ENS/09ensa316.pdf.
Testo completoAbstract (sommario):
Bibliography: leaves 101-104. Explores risk assessment of dams, a fundamental approach for dam safety measurement, providing a base on which all safety assessment and any appropriate regulation should be developed. Includes an overview of the relevant literature; an example of the application of this method by the South Australia Water Corporation; and it is also applied to the Wadi Al Jizzi Recharge Dam in the Sultanate of Oman. Conclusions and recommendations are presented on the applicability of risk assessment of dams method in the Sultanate of Oman.
11
Garpenfeldt, Katarina. "Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment : Analysis of a Risk Assessment Process in Emergency Preparedness". Thesis, Högskolan i Gävle, Avdelningen för datavetenskap och samhällsbyggnad, 2019. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:hig:diva-31318.
Testo completoAbstract (sommario):
A challenging yet crucial component of emergency planning is to identify relevant hazards and assess their risk level. Within the Province of Ontario, Canada, governmental emergency management stakeholders are required to use the Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment (HIRA) process, developed by the Province, to meet legislative compliance. The HIRA process is based on the use of risk matrices and hence faces many of the inherent challenges of this method, potentially resulting in a poor risk assessment process with a low quality outcome. The aim of this thesis is to analyze Ontario’s Provincial HIRA process to identify weaknesses, strengths, and gaps, in order to increase understanding for potential issues related to this type of hazard identification and risk assessment process within emergency preparedness. The Provincial HIRA process will be analyzed, as it is implemented in the Regional Municipality of York, including the Public Health Unit, by comparing the process to six points identified in the literature as potential challenges with the ability to compromise the quality of a risk assessment process. The main focus is on the use of risk matrices although some aspects more generally related to risk assessments have been included. Overall the Provincial HIRA has several weaknesses and gaps. It is evident that the process demonstrates many of the issues that impair the quality of risk assessments supported by the use of risk matrices such as ambiguous input and out-puts, errors, poor resolution and sub-optimal resource allocation. Additionally, a significant amount of resources and access to hazard subject matter expertise would be required to execute the HIRA in accordance with the guideline. Such resources are not necessarily available to the target audience. All these aspects contribute to a risk assessment process that struggles to meet one of its main objectives, to provide the user with a quantitative risk ranking with the capacity to distinguish between risk levels of different hazards. Subsequently the outcome may not accurately support the emergency planning or the decision making process related to resource allocation.Identifiering av lokalt relevanta faror och bedömning av deras risknivåer är en kritisk och komplex del av arbetsområdet beredskap för nödsituationer (eng. emergency preparedness). Myndigheter som bedriver verksamhet inom detta område i provinsen Ontario, Kanada är enligt lag skyldiga att genomföra en ”Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment” (HIRA) process, utvecklad av provinsen. HIRA-metoden är baserad på användandet av risk matriser och står således inför många av denna metods inneboende utmaningar vilket kan resultera i svag riskbedömningsprocess med tvivelaktigt resultat. Syftet med denna uppsats är att analysera Ontarios HIRA-process för att identifiera potentialla svagheter, styrkor och luckor i processen och således generera insikt i potentiella utmaningar relaterat till denna typ av riskbedömningsprocess inom ”emergency preparedness”. HIRA-processen, så som den implementerats i York Region och inom dess folkhälsomyndighet, kommer att analyseras baserat på sex punkter identifierade inom litteraturen som aspekter med förmåga att påverka kvalitén på riskdömningsresultatet. Sammanfattningsvis ses att HIRA-processen innefattar många av de svagheter som diskuteras i litteraturen rörande riskmatriser som till exempel fel, tvetydig in- och utdata, dålig upplösning och suboptimal resursfördelning vilket potentiellt medför en riskbedömningsprocess av låg kvalité. För att genomföra HIRA-processen så som metoden är designad behöver användaren investera en betydande mängd resurser samt helst tillgå expertis inom riskbedömning relaterat till de olika farorna som skall bedömas, vilket inte alltid finns tillgängligt inom de organisationen som genomför en HIRA. Dessa aspekter sammantaget bidrar till en process som inte nödvändigtvis når fram till ett av sina primära mål; att skapa en kvantitativ rangordning av risker med förmåga att särskilja olika farors risknivå. Till följd finns en risk att resultatet av riskbedömning inte stödjer den operativa planeringen eller processen för beslutsfattande relaterad till resursfördelning.
12
Guzzetti, Fausto. "Landslide hazard and risk assessment". [S.l.] : [s.n.], 2006. http://deposit.ddb.de/cgi-bin/dokserv?idn=980716993.
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Emmert-Aronson, Ben. "Risk assessment and core affect". Connect to resource, 2006. http://hdl.handle.net/1811/6616.
Testo completoAbstract (sommario):
Thesis (Honors)--Ohio State University, 2006.Title from first page of PDF file. Document formatted into pages: contains 26 p.; also includes graphics. Includes bibliographical references (p. 13-15). Available online via Ohio State University's Knowledge Bank.
14
Fang, Tong. "Tin whisker risk assessment studies". College Park, Md. : University of Maryland, 2005. http://hdl.handle.net/1903/3079.
Testo completoAbstract (sommario):
Thesis (D. Eng.) -- University of Maryland, College Park, 2005.Thesis research directed by: Mechanical Engineering. Title from t.p. of PDF. Includes bibliographical references. Published by UMI Dissertation Services, Ann Arbor, Mich. Also available in paper.
15
Patricio, Antonio Pires. "Credit risk assessment in Macau". Thesis, University of Macau, 2004. http://umaclib3.umac.mo/record=b1636249.
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Sobyanina, Elena, e Ilona Mockutė. "ERP post-implementation: risk assessment". Thesis, Mälardalens högskola, Akademin för hållbar samhälls- och teknikutveckling, 2011. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:mdh:diva-12844.
Testo completoAbstract (sommario):
The purpose of this Thesis was to create a framework of 11 risk factors, investigate which of them are the most critical for the company and to find relationships between them Research questions What continuing risks will the company experience after ERP implementation? What relationships and measures can be constructed to better understand and manage risk factors of post-implementation? Some years ago ERP was a novelty in doing business, but nowadays companies have advanced from the implementation to the exploitation phase. Discussions about ERP post-implementation have just started to appear and many researchers see it as a second wave of ERP research. Undesirable risks in post-implementation stage of ERP can affect not just ERP area, they can lead to a total business failure. ERP post-implementation is a very important topic that requires attention, because understanding potential risk factors and their dependence on each other can facilitate managing process and help to avoid negative consequences. Knowledge of the risks can help to bring forth better practices that are consistent with a company’s internal context.
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Khan, Moazzam. "Security metric based risk assessment". Diss., Georgia Institute of Technology, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/1853/47527.
Testo completoAbstract (sommario):
Modern day computer networks have become very complex and attackers have benefited due to this complexity and have found vulnerabilities and loopholes in the network architecture. In order to identify the attacks from an attacker all aspects of network architecture needs to be carefully examined such as packet headers, network scans, versions of applications, network scans, network anomalies etc. and after the examination attributes playing a significant impact on the security posture of the organization needs to be highlighted so that resources and efforts are directed towards those attributes. In this work we extensively look at network traffic at dormitory network of a large campus and try to identify the attributes that play a significant role in the infection of a machine. Our scheme is to collect as much attributes from the network traffic applying the heuristic of network infection and then devise a scheme called decision centric rank ordering of security metric that gives the priority to the security metrics so that network administrators can channel their efforts in the right direction. Another aspect of this research is to identify the probability of an attack on a communication infrastructure. A communication infrastructure becomes prone to attack if certain elements exist in it, such as vulnerabilities in the comprising elements of the system, existence of an attacker and motivation for him to attack. Focus of this study is on vulnerability assessment and security metrics such as user behavior, operating systems, user applications, and software updates. To achieve a quantified value of risk, a set of machines is carefully observed for the security metrics. Statistical analysis is applied on the data collected from compromised machines and the quantified value of risk is achieved.
18
Scarrott, Carl John. "Reactor modelling and risk assessment". Thesis, Lancaster University, 2003. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.414910.
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Baker, Kerry. "Risk assessment of young offenders". Thesis, University of Oxford, 2004. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.404192.
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Mu, Yuan. "Chinese bank's credit risk assessment". Thesis, University of Stirling, 2007. http://hdl.handle.net/1893/210.
Testo completoAbstract (sommario):
This thesis studies the Chinese banks’ credit risk assessment using the Post Keynesian approach. We argue that bank loans are the major financial sources in emerging economies and it is uncertainty, an unquantifiable risk, rather than asymmetric information about quantifiable risk, as held by the mainstream approach, which is most important for the risk attached to credit loans, and this uncertainty is particularly important in China. With the universal existence of uncertainty, borrowers and lenders have to make decisions based on convention and experience. With regard to the nature of decision-making, this implies the importance of qualitative methods rather than quantitative methods. The current striking problem in Chinese banking is the large amount of Non-Performing Loans (NPLs) and this research aims to address the NPLs through improving credit risk management. Rather than the previous literature where Western models are introduced into China directly or with minor modification, this work advocates building on China’s conventional domestic methods to deal with uncertainty. We briefly review the background of the Chinese banking history with an evolutionary view and examine Chinese conventions in the development of the credit market. Based on an overview of this history, it is argued that Soft Budget Constraints (SBC) and the underdeveloped risk-assessing mechanism contributed to the accumulation of NPLs. Informed by Western models and experience, we have made several suggestions about rebuilding the Chinese convention of credit risk assessment, based on an analysis of publications and interviews with Chinese bankers. We also suggest some further development of the Asset Management Companies (AMCs) which are used to dispose of the NPLs.
21
Eshahawi, Tarek Al-Mahdi. "Risk assessment using process similarity". Thesis, University of Nottingham, 2011. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.546294.
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Paylor, Mark Alan. "Risk assessment of LAN communications". Thesis, Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 1992. http://hdl.handle.net/10945/37405.
Testo completoAbstract (sommario):
The National Computer Security Center's (NCSC) Computer Security Requirements -- Guidance for Applying the DoD TCSEC in Specific Environments (CSC-STD-003-85) describes an environmental evaluation process which can be utilized to determine the level of trust required in a given Local Area Network (LAN) system for processing sensitive information. This thesis investigates the environmental evaluation process and applies it to the LAN environment of a hypothetical naval aviation squadron.
23
Morris, Jane Fiona. "Risk assessment of contaminated land". Thesis, University of Nottingham, 2000. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.326527.
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Johnson, Peter F. "Risk Assessment in Telephone Exchanges". Digital WPI, 2005. https://digitalcommons.wpi.edu/etd-theses/277.
Testo completoAbstract (sommario):
A systematic framework has been developed to assess what it is that is at risk in any given telephone exchange. This critical area procedure is designed to identify high risk areas, both in terms of potential property damage and business interruption. This procedure utilizes a functionally based approach that is pictorial in presentation n and well suited to management decision making processes.
25
Essiam, Albert K. "Risk assessment for contaiminated sites". Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1995. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/11555.
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Milner, Rebecca. "Trauma-Informed Suicide Risk Assessment". Digital Commons @ East Tennessee State University, 2019. https://dc.etsu.edu/etsu-works/6024.
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Zhao, Bo. "Overview of Financial Risk Assessment". Kent State University Honors College / OhioLINK, 2014. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=ksuhonors1399203159.
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Mishra, Rajeev Kumar. "An uprateability risk assessment methodology". College Park, Md. : University of Maryland, 2005. http://hdl.handle.net/1903/3066.
Testo completoAbstract (sommario):
Thesis (M.S.) -- University of Maryland, College Park, 2005.Thesis research directed by: Dept. of Mechanical Engineering. Title from t.p. of PDF. Includes bibliographical references. Published by UMI Dissertation Services, Ann Arbor, Mich. Also available in paper.
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Smith, Carey. "Studies on weed risk assessment". Title page, contents and abstract only, 1999. http://web4.library.adelaide.edu.au/theses/09AFM/09afms644.pdf.
Testo completoAbstract (sommario):
Bibliography: leaves 124-136. This thesis gives an overview of factors used in weed risk assessments and explores the disparity between the measured high accuracy rate of the weed risk assessment system (WRA) as implemented in Australia and the pessimistic assessments of some workers about the possibility of predicting the weed potential of plant species imported in the future. The accuracy of the WRA may not be as high as previously thought, and it varies with weed definition and taxonomic groups. Cluster analysis and comparative analysis by independent contrasts were employed to determine the value of individual biological and ecological questions on the WRA questionnaire. Results showed that some WRA questions could be deleted from the questionnaire and the scores for others weighted differently. The WRA is not a reliable predictor of weeds when it is considered in the context of the base-rate probability of an introduced plant becoming weedy in Australia. As a result a far greater number on non-weeds will be placed on the prohibited imported list than was initially expected.
30
Bigdeli, Farah. "Risk Assessment and Risk Management of Nano-Material Toxicity". ScholarWorks@UNO, 2009. http://scholarworks.uno.edu/td/921.
Testo completoAbstract (sommario):
Increasing applications of nano materials in medicine, construction, textiles, computers, and other consumer goods have lead to increasing concerns of their effect on human health and ecology during synthesis, manufacturing, use, and disposal of nano-materials. Though much scientific progress has been made in nano material synthesis, manufacturing, and application in consumer goods and other sectors such as medicine, textiles and more, not much progress has been made in understanding the adverse effects of nano materials on human health and the environment. Physical, chemical, toxicological characteristics of these nano materials and their fate in the environment are important in understanding their adverse effects on the environmental and human health. This study is aimed at developing a preliminary framework for risk assessment (RA) and risk management (RM) of nano materials based on fundamental principles of chemistry, physics, toxicology, and other related disciplines.
31
Gerth, Juliane [Verfasser]. "Risk-Assessment bei Gewalt- und Sexualdelinquenz - Standardisierte Risk-Assessment Instrumente auf dem Prüfstand - / Juliane Gerth". Konstanz : Bibliothek der Universität Konstanz, 2015. http://d-nb.info/108020640X/34.
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Aiassa, E. "RISK ASSESSMENT FOR BOVINE WELFARE AT SLAUGHTER. A COMPARISON BETWEEN A RISK ASSESSMENT BASED ON EMPIRICAL DATA AND A RISK ASSESSMENT BASED ON EXPERT OPINION". Doctoral thesis, Università degli Studi di Milano, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/2434/155485.
Testo completoAbstract (sommario):
Background. Risk assessment is a systematic process that uses modelling to estimate the likelihood of adverse effects occurring from exposure to hazards. While risk assessment is widely used to support decision making in many areas of food and feed safety (e.g. veterinary epidemiology, toxicology, eco-toxicology), it is a relatively new concept for animal welfare. Currently there are no standardised guidelines for animal welfare risk assessment. Furthermore, very little research has been conducted to assess the reliability of the existing methods, which mostly rely on qualitative data and are based on expert opinion. Objectives. The objectives of this research project were to assess the scientific robustness of existing risk assessment methods for animal welfare and identify any potential methodological flaws of these processes. Methods. The currently available methods for animal welfare risk assessment were analysed in detail. Two risk assessments for beef cattle at slaughter (in northern Italy) were performed and compared. One based on empirical data (i.e. collected in slaughterhouses) and one based on expert opinion (gathered via a questionnaire submitted to a group of 11 experts).
The two new risk assessments were structured to be as similar as possible to the animal welfare risk assessments under appraisal. A list of 56 hazards potentially relevant to beef cattle at slaughter was produced via a literature review. The relevance of such hazards was assessed by a series of preliminary observations in abattoirs and by asking the 11 experts to assess it. Fourteen hazards were excluded from the subsequent analyses as never being observed during the on-site observations and indicated as not relevant by at least 5 out 11 experts.
For the risk assessment based on empirical data, a novel method for performing on-site exposure assessment and likelihood of the adverse effects (by severity levels) was developed. The method was based on a precise definition of the hazards and a differentiation between adverse welfare effects and measurable indicators of adverse effects. The latter were associated to different severity classes defined qualitatively on the basis of the intensity of the behavioural responses of the animals.
In the second risk assessment the approach to eliciting expert opinion was different from the existing animal welfare risk assessments (based on consensus opinion) as the experts answered the questionnaire independently. Thorough a series of risk assessment-tailored questions, the experts were asked to assess hazard exposure (for beef cattle at slaughter in northern Italy), characterise the adverse effects resulting from the exposure to the hazards and indicate the related uncertainty.
Exposure assessment based on empirical data and on expert opinion was compared for 42 hazards. As 18 hazards were never detected during the on-site observations (or the number of animals exposed was < 5), adverse effect characterisation and final risk were estimated and compared for 24 hazards. Results. The results of exposure assessment based on empirical data and on expert opinion were inconsistent for 24 out of 42 hazards. Consistent results for all possible adverse effects resulting from the exposure to a hazard never occurred. Often the variability between the experts’ responses on exposure assessment and adverse effect characterisation was high. In line with the results of exposure assessment and adverse effect characterisation, the two risk estimates rarely produced comparable results. Discussion. The analysis of the available methods for animal welfare risk assessment performed in this study, the discordance of the results of the two risk assessments and the variability between the experts’ responses highlighted some inherent flaws and requirements of existing risk assessments for animal welfare. A more detailed and measurable description of the hazards should be available. Further, a clear understanding of the animal welfare outcomes and their measurement is paramount. In addition, while performing the on-site observations it was clear that interactions between hazards and different hazards intensities and durations need more consideration. The method developed for performing on-site exposure assessment and estimating the likelihood of the adverse effects proved to be very valuable to solve most of the highlighted limitations of existing animal welfare risk assessments. Conclusions. A unique and useful approach to defining the hazards for animal welfare and to assessing animal welfare in a measurable and quantifiable way was developed. In particular the method for assessing animal welfare was based on a clear differentiation between adverse welfare effects and measurable indicators of poor welfare (classified by severity levels). This approach to hazard description and welfare outcome definition and assessment is recommended for enhancing empirical research on animal welfare especially when there is a lack of empirical data for risk assessment. Furthermore, this method can lead to a standardised and harmonised approach for the evaluation of hazards and adverse effects between experts, leading to more robust risk assessments. This study also proposed an alternative method for eliciting expert opinion based on independent scoring of the risk assessment parameters. The approach showed very useful implications for identifying sources of uncertainties that are normally overlooked in existing risk assessments for animal welfare, such as difficulties in assessing the risk assessment parameters, disagreements between the experts or lack of expert knowledge.
Finally this study highlighted that, independently of the data used for the risk assessment (i.e. empirical data or expert opinion), the method for either reviewing the literature or gathering expert opinion should be chosen in light of the best available practices. The process and any decisions taken should be documented to ensure greater transparency and reproducibility.
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Osadchenko, Igor. "Risk Assessment of International Sales Contracts in Beverages Market". Master's thesis, Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, 2015. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-264266.
Testo completoAbstract (sommario):
The aim of my thesis was to analyze and identify main types of risks and uncertainties, which can be faced by international companies. I also described main ways and methods of avoidance and minimisation of such risky situations. AB Inbev was chosen as an example since I was working in the branch of this company located in Prague, Czech Republic. This explains my concentration mainly on the market for beverages.
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Rydén, Calle. "Scenario Based Comparison Between Risk AssessmentSchemes". Thesis, Blekinge Tekniska Högskola, Institutionen för datavetenskap, 2020. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:bth-19722.
Testo completoAbstract (sommario):
Background. In the field of risk management, focusing on digital infrastructure, there is an uncertainty about which methods and algorithms are relevant and correct. Behind this uncertainty lies a need for testing and evaluation of different risk management analysis methods in order to determine how effective they are in relation to each other. Purpose. The purpose of this thesis is to manufacture a reproducible and universal method of comparison between risk management analysis methods. This is based on the need to compare two risk assessment analysis methods. One method relies solely on impact information and the other expands on that concept by also utilizing information about the network environment. Method. A network is modeled into a scenario. A risk assessment is conducted on the scenario by risk assessment experts which will be used as the correct solution. The tested risk management analysis methods are applied to the scenario and the results are compared with the expert risk assessment. The distance between the assessments are measured with Mean Square Error; A smaller distance between one assessment and the experts assessment indicates that it is more correct. Result. The result shows that it is possible to reproducibly compare risk management analysis methods by comparing the respective output with an established truth. The conducted comparison shows that a method that use network environment data is capable of producing a more correct assessment than one which simply uses impact data. Conclusion. A scenario based approach to compare risk management analysis methods for risk assessment has been proven effective.
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Gallagher, Elisabeth. "Studies in risk analysis, with an emphasis on risk assessment and risk communication". Thesis, Royal Veterinary College (University of London), 2005. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.419975.
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Shelton, Davis Anecia Delaine. "Transportation risk assessment for ethanol transport". [College Station, Tex. : Texas A&M University, 2007. http://hdl.handle.net/1969.1/ETD-TAMU-2032.
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Chen, Limei. "Nonparametric assessment of safety levels in ecological risk assessment (ERA)". FIU Digital Commons, 2003. http://digitalcommons.fiu.edu/etd/2135.
Testo completoAbstract (sommario):
In ecological risk assessment (ERA), it is important to know whether the exposure that animal species receive from a chemical concentration exceeds the desired safety level. This study examined several statistical methods currently being used in ecological risk assessment and reviewed several statistical procedures related to this subject in the literature. Two large sample nonparametric tests were developed for this study. Monte Carlo study showed that these tests performed well even when the sample size was moderately large. A real data set was used to show that the new methodologies provide a good method for assessing the potential risks of pesticides residues at an investigated site.
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Matsuo, Eric K. "Risk assessment in incremental software development". Thesis, Monterey, Calif. : Springfield, Va. : Naval Postgraduate School ; Available from National Technical Information Service, 1999. http://handle.dtic.mil/100.2/ADA374495.
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Lefebvre, Nicolas. "Creation of a Risk Assessment Methodology". Thesis, KTH, Industriell ekologi, 2007. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-32801.
Testo completoAbstract (sommario):
This report is a presentation of the work realised during an internship at the consultancy division of Thales Security Systems from September 2005 to June 2006. Thales Security Systems is part of Thales, an international group in defence, aeronautics, etc. The work realised consisted in the creation of a new risk assessment methodology for a commercial offer called HELP, standing for Human, Environmental, Logical and Physical security. As a basis for the work, 5 existing risk assessment methodologies were studied, summed up and analysed: - Integrated security risk assessment: a methodology created by Thales Security Systems but not used because of its complexity - Ebios: a whole risk assessment methodology created by the French government - Marion: more or less an audit questionnaire - Audit questionnaire ISO 17799: an audit questionnaire created by Thales Security Systems - A confidential methodology: a methodology of another company with interesting concepts So as to complete this first work, many interviews were realised with specialists in risk assessment and strategy: - Counter-admiral Girard who insisted on the preliminary task of the definition of the mission and its limits, the return of experience as well as on the security frame of mind - Guy Dubois for the maintenance of the security level year after year - Thomas Lebouc for the tools used to apply the methodology - Gérard Pesch regarding the commercial offer - Yves le Dauphin for the human issues Afterwards, the different advantages and drawbacks of the studied methodologies have been studied so as to determine the essential characteristics that were necessary to have in the new methodology The new methodology has thus been created taking into account all these advantages, drawbacks and pieces of advice. The new methodology is a five step methodology: - Definition of the mission and its limits: determination of the objectives of the mission and its perimeter - General analysis of the system: study of the system in its environment - Risk analysis: determination of the threats, assets and Vulnerabilities - Protection standards: determination of the protection measures to implement - Budget, action plans and implementation So as to apply the methodology, several tools have been created. They are necessary for the good running of the methodology as they help to show results in a clear way. These tools are for example, a risk analysis board, a vulnerability audit questionnaire, diagrams, or protection standard sheets.www.ima.kth.se
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Urban, Marcel. "Earthquake risk assessment of historical structures". kostenfrei, 2007. http://www.digibib.tu-bs.de/?docid=00020873.
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Lindgren, Margareta. "Pressure sores : risk assessment and prevention /". Linköping : Univ, 2003. http://www.bibl.liu.se/liupubl/disp/disp2003/med784s.pdf.
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Dimopoulos, Athanasios. "Probabilistic risk assessment of electrical substations". Thesis, Cardiff University, 2009. http://orca.cf.ac.uk/55083/.
Testo completoAbstract (sommario):
This thesis is concerned with the development of probabilistic risk assessment for substation earthing systems. A number of key parameters have been studied in detail which led to the development of a new approach that incorporates the recommendations of applicable standards and uses historical system fault data to take account of the probabilistic nature of load, protection systems and grid characteristics. In this work, an in-depth appraisal of existing standards has led to the development of safety-limit surfaces that can be used to quantify the benefits/disadvantages of particular earthing standards. The investigation has revealed that there are substantial differences between the recommended values of tolerable voltages attributed to a combination of factors: (i) difference in assumed tolerable body current (ii) differences in the parameters of the electrocution circuit (iii) differences in the predicted touch voltage and (iv) differences in the assumed worst-case shock location. The electricity industry, like other industries, is looking to reduce risk to minimum feasible while maintaining costs of mitigation within acceptable limits. Therefore, a more rigorous and comprehensive procedure of probabilistic risk assessment of the earthing systems is required. In order to achieve this, a detailed analysis of all parameters was undertaken in this work using more representative accidental circuits and parameters extracted from historical system fault data, provided by the collaborating transmission companies. These parameters were modelled and integrated into the proposed probabilistic risk assessment process. Work within this investigation on improving accuracy of calculation of heart fibrillation has led to the development of a probability surface of ventricular fibrillation and a computerised process that determines an accurate probability for a given body current and shock duration. This procedure takes into consideration the body current path and eliminates reading errors or assumptions that could result into conservative or optimistic conclusions. The above fundamental investigations on parameters affecting the overall risk were implemented in a new computerised risk assessment procedure CRAFTS suitable for transmission systems. CRAFTS allows a probabilistic risk assessment of the system under investigation. The application integrates the recent developments in the latest standard IEC 60479-1 and the developed probability surface of ventricular fibrillation. A case study performed on a typical grid has shown that the developed program is very useful when applying sensitivity analysis of the various parameters of the system and accidental circuit. The proposed full probabilistic risk assessment method incorporates the earthing system simulation results performed by specialised software, namely CDEGS, making it possible to simulate different electrocution scenarios throughout the substation instead of assuming a 'worst case scenario' and exposure to maximum possible voltages. Overall, the research in this thesis, offers an integrated solution of probabilistic risk assessment of earthing systems in aid of sound cost/benefit analysis and decision making.
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Hincks, Thea K. "Probabilistic volcanic hazard and risk assessment". Thesis, University of Bristol, 2007. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.544317.
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Bradley, Brendon Archie. "Structure-Specific Probabilistic Seismic Risk Assessment". Thesis, University of Canterbury. Department of Civil and Natural Resources Engineering, 2009. http://hdl.handle.net/10092/2588.
Testo completoAbstract (sommario):
This thesis addresses a diverse range of topics in the area of probabilistic seismic risk
analysis of engineering facilities. This intentional path of diversity has been followed
primarily because of the relatively new and rapid development of this facet of earthquake
engineering. As such this thesis focuses on the rigorous scrutinization of current, and in
particular, simplified methods of seismic risk assessment; the development of novel aspects
of a risk assessment methodology which provides easily communicated performance
measures and explicit consideration for the many uncertainties in the entire earthquake
problem; and the application of this methodology to case-study examples including structures
supported on pile foundations embedded in liquefiable soils.
The state-of-the-art in seismic risk and loss assessment is discussed via the case study
of a 10 storey New Zealand office building. Particular attention is given to the quality and
quantity of information that such assessment methodologies provide to engineers and
stakeholders for rational decision-making.
Two chapters are devoted to the investigation of the power-law model for representing
the ground motion hazard. Based on the inaccuracy of the power-law model at representing
the seismic hazard over a wide range of exceedance rates, an alternative, more accurate,
parametric hazard model based on a hyperbola in log-log space is developed and applied to
New Zealand peak ground acceleration and spectral acceleration hazard data. A semianalytical
closed-form solution for the demand hazard is also developed using the hyperbolic
hazard model and applied for a case-study performance assessment. The power-law hazard
model is also commonly used to obtain a closed-form solution for the annual rate of structural
collapse (collapse hazard). The magnitude of the error in this closed-form solution due to
errors in the necessary functional forms of its constitutive relations is examined via a
parametric study.
A series of seven chapters are devoted to the further development of various aspects of
a seismic risk assessment methodology. Intensity measures for use in the estimation of
spatially distributed seismic demands and seismic risk assessment which are: easily
predicted; can predict seismic response with little uncertainty; and are unbiased regarding additional properties of the input ground motions are examined. An efficient numerical
integration algorithm which is specifically tailored for the solution of the governing risk
assessment equations is developed and compared against other common methods of
numerical integration. The efficacy of approximate uncertainty propagation in seismic risk
assessment using the so-called First-Order Second-Moment method is investigated.
Particular attention is given to the locations at which the approximate uncertainty propagation
is used, the possible errors for various computed seismic risk measures, and the reductions in
computational demands. Component correlations have to date been not rigorously considered
in seismic loss assessments due to complications in their estimation and tractable
methodologies to account for them. Rigorous and computationally efficient algorithms to
account for component correlations are presented. Particular attention is also given to the
determination of correlations in the case of limited empirical data, and the errors which may
occur in seismic loss assessment computations neglecting proper treatment of correlations are
examined. Trends in magnitude, distribution, and correlation of epistemic uncertainties in
seismic hazard analyses for sites in the San Francisco bay area are examined. The
characteristics of these epistemic uncertainties are then used to compare and contrast three
methods which can be used to propagate such uncertainties to other seismic risk measures.
Causes of epistemic uncertainties in component fragility functions, their evaluation, and
combination are also examined.
A series of three chapters address details regarding the seismic risk assessment of
structures supported on pile foundations embedded in liquefiable soils. A ground motion
prediction equation for spectrum intensity (found to be a desirable intensity measure for
seismic response analysis in liquefiable soils) is developed based on ground motion
prediction equations for spectral accelerations, which are available in abundance in literature.
Determination of intensity measures for the seismic response of pile foundations, which are
invariably located in soil deposits susceptible to liquefaction, is examined. Finally, a rigorous
seismic performance and loss assessment of a case-study bridge structure is examined using
rigorous ground motion selection, seismic effective stress analyses, and professional cost
estimates. Both direct repair and loss of functionality consequences for the bridge structure
are examined.
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Reid, Christopher. "Occupational Lower Extremity Risk Assessment Modeling". Doctoral diss., University of Central Florida, 2009. http://digital.library.ucf.edu/cdm/ref/collection/ETD/id/4111.
Testo completoAbstract (sommario):
Introduction: Lower extremity (LE) work-related musculoskeletal disorders (WMSDs) are known to occur with cumulative exposure to occupational and personal risks. The objective of this dissertation study was to find if creating a quantifiable risk detection model for the LE was feasible. The primary product of the literature review conducted for this study resulted in focusing the attention of the model development process onto creating the initial model of the LE for assessing knee disorder risk factors. Literature Review: LE occupational disorders affect numerous industries and thousands of people each year by affecting any one of the musculoskeletal systems deemed susceptible by the occupational and personal risk factors involved. Industries known to be affected tend to have labor intensive job descriptions. Some of the numerous industry examples include mining, manufacturing, firefighting, and carpet laying. Types of WMSDs noticed by the literature include bursitis, osteoarthritis, stress fractures, tissue inflammation, and nerve entrapment. In addition to the occupationally related disorders that may develop, occupationally related discomforts were also taken into consideration by this study. Generally, both the disorders and the discomforts can be traced to either a personal or occupational risk factor or both. Personal risk factors noted by the literature include a person's physical fitness and health history (such as past injuries). Meanwhile, occupational risks can be generalized to physical postures, activities, and even joint angles. Prevalence data over a three year interval (2003-2005) has found that LE WMSDs make up on average approximately 7.5% of all the WMSD cases reported to the US Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA). When the literature is refined to the information pertaining to occupational knee disorders, the mean prevalence percentage of the same three year range is about 5%. Mean cost for knee injuries were found to be $18,495 (for the year between 2003 and 2004). Methodology: Developing a risk model for the knee meant using groups of subject matter experts for model development and task hazard analysis. Sample occupational risk data also needed to be gathered for each of a series of tasks so that the model could be validated. These sample data were collected from a sample aircraft assembly plant of a US aerospace manufacturer. Results: Based on the disorder and risk data found in the literature, a knee risk assessment model was developed to utilize observational, questionnaire, and direct measure data collection methods. The final version of this study's knee model has an inventory of 11 risk factors (8 occupational and 3 personal) each with varying degrees of risk exposure thresholds (e.g., high risk, moderate risk, or minimal risk). For the occupational risk assessment portion of the model, the results of task evaluations include both an occupational risk resultant score (risk score) and a task risk level (safe or hazardous). This set of results is also available for a cumulative (whole day) assessment. The personal risk assessment portion only produces a risk resultant score. Validation of the knee risk model reveals statistically (t (34) = 1.512, p = 0.156), that it is functioning as it should and can decide between hazardous and safe tasks. Additionally, the model is also capable of analyzing tasks as a series of cumulative daily events and providing an occupational and personal risk overview for individuals. Conclusion: While the model proved to be functional to the given sample site and hypothetical situations, further studies are needed outside of the aerospace manufacturing environment to continue testing both the model's validity and applicability to other industrial environments. The iterative adjustments generated for the occupational risk portion of the model (to reduce false positives and negatives) will need additional studies that will further evaluate professional human judgment of knee risk against this model's results. Future investigations must also make subject matter experts aware of the minimal risk levels of this knee risk assessment model so that task observational results are equally comparable. Additional studies are moreover needed to assess the intimate nature between variable interactions; especially multiple model defined minimal risks within a single task.Ph.D.
Department of Industrial Engineering and Management Systems
Engineering and Computer Science
Industrial Engineering PhD
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Yip, Hopi. "Risk assessment of private water supples". Thesis, University of East Anglia, 2008. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.443189.
Testo completo
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Zhang, Wei Ya. "Risk-benefit assessment of minor analgesics". Thesis, University of Nottingham, 1997. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.390515.
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Chen, Yao. "Improving railway safety : risk assessment study". Thesis, University of Birmingham, 2013. http://etheses.bham.ac.uk//id/eprint/4465/.
Testo completoAbstract (sommario):
Railway safety is very important, as it concerns human lives. Therefore identifying risks from possible failures is vital to maintain the safety of railways. Currently, many mature tools, such as fault tree analysis and event tree analysis, are applied to investigate possible risks to railway safety. However, in many circumstances, the applications of these tools are unable to provide satisfactory results when the risk data is incomplete or there is a high level of uncertainty involved in the risk dataThus it is essential to develop new methods to overcome the weakness of current assessment tools. This thesis introduces an improved intelligent system for risk analysis usingfuzzy reasoning approach (FRA) and improved fuzzy analytical hierarchy decision making process (Fuzzy-AHP), which is specially designed and developed for the railways, and able to deal with the uncertainty in risk assessment.
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Wolahan, Mollye A. (Mollye Ann) 1967. "Environmental risk assessment in financial institutions". Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1999. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/70723.
Testo completoAbstract (sommario):
Thesis (M.C.P. and S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Urban Studies and Planning, 1999.Includes bibliographical references (leaves 52-54).
Have the environmental risk assessment policies and procedures instituted by banks been successful in promoting the welfare of the environment? Have these policies and procedures succeeded in protecting banks from environment related liability? This thesis examines the impact of environmental risk management processes on the lending practices of banks. It also evaluates the success of these processes in achieving the goals for which they were implemented. In underwriting environmental risk, financial institutions are primarily concerned with the degree to which they are exposed to liability for the cleanup of a collateralized property. Through this thesis research, it was found that bank lending practices do not address issues of environmental sustainability, such as product and building design, and air and land quality. These issues of environmental sustainability are indirect factors that are not given much weight by the banks since banks are concerned about the direct risk factor of liability. There are three reasons why the lending policies of banks are narrowly focused on direct liability risks: (1) the creation of unlimited liability for banks by federal legislation (2) the focus of banking regulations on this liability and (3) the short time frame that banks use in their credit models. The findings of this research show that banks still have significant sources of direct environmental risk. The regulatory system that has defined the environmental risk factors for banks has proven itself inefficient. Based on the cases presented in this thesis, banks have not decreased the contamination of the properties held in the portfolios. The banks have responded to this regulatory environment by insulating themselves against liability risk. The regulatory environment has created a dead-weight loss to the banking system, where the banks incur costs for addressing environmental liability risk, yet there is little increased benefit to society. A question that arises in reviewing these findings is: if banks are afraid to lend to environmentally contaminated properties because of liability concerns, why haven't other players stepped in fill this void by charging more to the borrowers of these potentially contaminated sites? Other areas of the economy have segmented in reaction to this type of market failure. For example, there is a lending market that targets homeowners who need credit but who have poor credit histories. Why does the market for high-risk environmental loans remain undifferentiated? While the limits of this study preclude offering a comprehensive answer to this question, the initial findings of this study do provide insight and guidelines for further research.
by Mollye A. Wolahan.
M.C.P.and S.M.
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Ren, Qingyun. "Quantitative Risk Assessment for Residential Mortgages". Digital WPI, 2017. https://digitalcommons.wpi.edu/etd-theses/628.
Testo completoAbstract (sommario):
The crisis of the mortgage market and the mortgage-backed security (MBS) market in 2008 had dramatic negative effects in dragging down all of the economy on a worldwide scale. Many researches have, therefore, attempted to explore the influencing factors on mortgage default risk. This project, in cooperation with the company EnerScore, revolves around discovering a correlation between portfolios of mortgages to underlying energy expenditures. EnerScore€™s core product provides an internal dataset related to home energy efficiency for American homes and gives their corresponding home energy efficiency rating to every home, which is called an €œEnerScore.€� This project involves discovering a correlation between default within portfolios of mortgages based on underlying energy expenditures. The goal is to show that energy efficient homes potentially have lower default risks than standard homes because the homes which lack energy efficiency are associated with higher energy costs. This leaves less money to make the mortgage payment, and thereby increases default risk. The first phase of this project involves finding a foreclosure dataset that will be used to design the quantitative model. Due to limited availability and constraints related to default data, Google search query data is used to develop a broad based and real-time index of mortgage default risk and establish a meaningful scientific correlation. After analyzing several statistical models to explore this correlation, the regression tree model showed that the EnerScore is a strong predictor for mortgage default risk when using city-level mortgage default risk data and EnerScore data.