Bibliografie tematiche / Recessions

Letteratura scientifica selezionata sul tema "Recessions"

Autore: Grafiati
Pubblicato: 4 giugno 2021
Ultima modifica: 11 marzo 2023

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Articoli di riviste sul tema "Recessions"

1

Morvay, Karol, e Martin Hudcovský. "Different Impact of the Recession on the Labour Market: Less Work Without Increasing Unemployment in Slovakia". DANUBE 13, n. 3 (1 settembre 2022): 240–55. http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/danb-2022-0015.

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Abstract The paper examines why the pandemic recession hit the labour market in Slovakia differently from previous recessions. Traditionally, the unemployment rose sharply during previous economic recessions. Therefore, it seemed like a novelty when the unemployment rate rose only insignificantly in a pandemic recession. We find that both the demand and supply side of the labour market played their role in it. Labour demand has been affected differently compared to the past: Instead of the usual sharp increase in unemployment during a recession, the rate of utilization of workers’ time capacities fell, with expected impacts also on income differentiation. This is in line with the way more advanced European economies have responded to recessions before. In addition, a new element was also present on the labour force supply side. In previous recessions, the labour force supply had been rising; in the recent pandemic recession, it fell for the first time.
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2

Seip, Knut Lehre, e Dan Zhang. "A High-Resolution Lead-Lag Analysis of US GDP, Employment, and Unemployment 1977–2021: Okun’s Law and the Puzzle of Jobless Recovery". Economies 10, n. 10 (20 ottobre 2022): 260. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/economies10100260.

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Okun’s law is formulated as the ratio between GDP and unemployment (UE): β = f(GDP/UE). It is used to investigate the relations between output and labor input across regions or across business cycles. Based on results by James D. Hamilton we replaced the United States UE with employment (EM) for the years 1977 to 2021 and examined how employment changed relative to output during recessions and recoveries. We found that (i) EM was leading GDP before and lagging GDP after all recessions, except the 2020 recession. (ii) The βE(9) = GDP/EM for rolling ordinary linear regression over 9 months decreases just after a recession and then recovers over 2- to 4-year periods. (iii) The two series showing that EM → GDP and βE(9) < 0.5 coincided in the 34 months that partly preceded and partly followed five of six NBER recession dates, providing a probability of ≈0.0002 to coincide with the recessions by chance. Thus, the two series may be used to support forecasts of coming recessions. Since EM precedes GDP and labor productivity declines before recessions, a policy recommendation for avoiding “jobless recovery” is that employment should not increase more rapidly than the real economy.
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3

Brenner, M. Harvey. "Unemployment, Bankruptcies, and Deaths From Multiple Causes in the COVID-19 Recession Compared With the 2000‒2018 Great Recession Impact". American Journal of Public Health 111, n. 11 (novembre 2021): 1950–59. http://dx.doi.org/10.2105/ajph.2021.306490.

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Objectives. To determine whether unemployment and bankruptcy rates are related to increased excess deaths during the COVID-19 recession and to examine whether the current recession-based mortality rate not only is dependent on COVID-19 but also continues the pattern of recessions, especially the Great Recession, in relation to chronic disease mortality rates and mental health disturbances (e.g., including suicide) from 2000 to 2018. Methods. This study used pooled cross-sectional time series analysis to determine the impact of unemployment and bankruptcy rates on excess deaths from February to November 2020 for US states. The study used a second pooled cross-sectional time series analysis to determine whether the COVID-19‒ era recessional mortality continues the impact of prepandemic recessions (2000–2018) on multiple causes of mortality. Results. Ten percent unemployment was associated with approximately 48[thin space]149 excess deaths, while, jointly with bankruptcies, their combined effect produced 35 700 and 144 483 excess deaths, for unemployment and bankruptcies, respectively. These health-damaging COVID-19‒recessional findings suggest a reiteration of the significantly increased major cause‒specific mortality during 2000 to 2018, mitigated by the size of the health care workforce. Conclusions. Minimization of deaths attributable to the COVID-19 recession requires ample funding for the unemployed and underemployed, especially Black and Hispanic communities, along with significant investments in the health workforce. (Am J Public Health. 2021;111(11):1950–1959. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2021.306490 )
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4

Gregg, Paul, e Jonathan Wadsworth. "The UK Labour Market and the 2008-9 Recession". National Institute Economic Review 212 (aprile 2010): R61—R72. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0027950110372445.

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The recession of 2008–9 inflicted a larger cumulative loss of UK output than any of the other postwar recessions. Nevertheless, employment rates remained higher than might have been expected given the experience of previous recessions. The main reasons for this appear to be a combination of high firm profitability levels going into the recession, supportive monetary and fiscal policies during the recession, reductions in real producer wages and relatively buoyant real consumer wages. Unemployment had reached its lowest levels for 30 years going in to the latest recession and has also remained relatively subdued through the downturn, certainly compared to previous recessions. A combination of lower inflow rates into unemployment, allied with a relatively higher outflow rate into employment underlie this. As government support for the economy is scaled back, it may be however that it will take a long time for employment to return to levels last seen before the recession.
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5

Tomina, Darius, Smaranda Buduru, Cristian Mihail Dinu, Andreea Kui, Cătălina Dee, Raluca Cosgarea e Marius Negucioiu. "Incidence of Malocclusion among Young Patients with Gingival Recessions—A Cross-Sectional Observational Pilot Study". Medicina 57, n. 12 (30 novembre 2021): 1316. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/medicina57121316.

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Background and Objectives: Dental occlusion and gingival recession have been studied over the past years especially because of the increasing incidence of occlusal interferences in young patients. The purpose of this pilot study is to investigate any association between occlusal dysfunctions and gingival recessions. Data on gingival phenotype and previous orthodontic treatment were also collected to assess any correlation with the presence of gingival recession. Materials and Methods: Forty systemically healthy subjects, without signs of periodontitis and with gingival recessions, were included in the study. The following parameters were determined: location and extent of the gingival recession, gingival phenotype and functional occlusion by means of observing and registering the occlusal contacts in maximum intercuspation position, protrusive and lateral guidance. Results: Premolars were mostly affected in cases of working-side interferences during lateral guidance (71.19% of the affected teeth during left and 75% during right mandibular movements). The chi-squared exact test applied for the analysis of contingency tables revealed statistically significant associations between excursive interferences during lateral guidance and anterior guidance and the presence of gingival recession on the involved group of teeth. Conclusions: The results suggest that most gingival recessions might be associated with working-side interferences, the highest number of gingival recessions being associated with active interferences during lateral guidance.
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Kiley, Michael T. "Financial and Macroeconomic Indicators of Recession Risk". FEDS Notes, n. 2022-06-21 (giugno 2022): None. http://dx.doi.org/10.17016/2380-7172.3126.

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Recessions impose sizable hardship, with large increases in the unemployment rate and related dislocations. In addition, recessions can lead to large shifts in financial markets. As a result, economists and financial market professionals have considered prediction models to assess the probability of a recession.
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7

Abolfazli, Nader, Afsoon Asadollahi, Masoumeh Faramarzi e Fariba Saleh Saber. "Efficacy of Double Pedicle Graft with and without PRGF in Treating Cl I and Cl II Gingival Recessions". Journal of Periodontology & Implant Dentistry 7, n. 2 (8 ottobre 2018): 44–49. http://dx.doi.org/10.15171/jpid.2015.009.

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Background and aims. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of double pedicle graft (DPG) with and without plasma rich in growth factor (PRGF) in the treatment of Miller's Cl I and II gingival recessions. Materials and methods. Thirty-two bilateral buccal gingival Miller’s Cl I and II recessions were selected. Sixteen of the recessions were treated with DPG and PRGF (test group). The remaining sixteen recessions were treated with DPG (control group). The clinical parameters, including clinical probing depth (CPD), clinical attachment level (CAL), recession depth (RD), recession width (RW) and keratinized gingiva width (KGW), were measured at baseline and 1, 3 and 6 months later. Data were analyzed with paired t-test. Results. After 6 months, both groups exhibited a significant improvement in all the criteria mentioned above. However, none of the groups showed significant differences in pocket depths after 6 months. At the end of the study there were significant improvements in recession depths and widths and clinical attachment levels and keratinized gingiva width between test and control groups Conclusion. The method using DPG+PRGF resulted in more favorable clinical outcomes than only DPG.
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8

Krasnokutskyy, O. A., P. A. Hasiuk e M. Y. Goncharuk-Khomyn. "ANALYSIS OF THE GINGIVAL RECESSION PREVALENCE AMONG DENTAL PATIENTS CONSIDERING ASSOCIATED AGE-RELATED, IATROGENIC AND PATHOLOGICAL CHANGES OF DENTAL STATUS". Ukrainian Dental Almanac, n. 1 (28 marzo 2022): 12–19. http://dx.doi.org/10.31718/2409-0255.1.2022.02.

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Assessment of gingival recessions prevalence and explicitation of their distribution among studied samples of dental patients considering criteria of age, sex, severity of gingival apical migration and the facts of associated dental status changes can potentially help to identify specific risk groups. Implementation of preventive measure among such risk groups could potentially optimize the prognosis of future conservative or surgical treatment of gingival recessions. The objective of present study was to evaluate the prevalence of gingival recessions among dental patients, while also considering the associated age-related, iatrogenic and pathological changes of dental status. In order to assess the prevalence of gingival recessions among dental patients a study sample was formed out of the patients of the private dental clinic "Dentistry 3D Plus" (Cherkasy). Formation of study sample was provided by the method of block randomization according to the different age subgroups (18-19 years, 20-29 years, 3039 years, 40-49 years and 50-59 years). Each subgroup was set with 100 dental patients of the appropriate age. The diagnosis of recession was established due to the specific diagnostic criterion of marginal gingiva apical migration with exposure of the tooth root surface. The recession classification was performed according to the approach proposed by P.D. Miller’s. The depth of the recession was determined using a periodontal probe of CP 15 North Carolina design. Recessions were identified in 52 persons (52,0%) among 100 patients aged 18-19 years, in 68 persons (68,0%) among patients aged 20-29 years, in 95 persons (95,0%) among patients aged 30-39 years, in 96 persons (96,0%) among patients aged 40-49 years, and in 96 persons (96,0%) among patients aged 50-59 years. In general, the average prevalence of Miller’s class I recessions among all pathologies diagnosed within different age subgroups was 61,45±16,82%, prevalence of Miller’s class II recession reached 10,74±3,56%, prevalence of Miller’s class III recession was 21,71±10.80%, and prevalence of Miller’s class IV recession was 6,10±2.97%. Thus, Miller's class I and III recessions were the most prevalent, and the frequency of their diagnostics was statistically higher than class II (p < 0,05) and class IV recessions (p < 0,05). The average depth of recessions that met the diagnostic criteria for class I according to Miller was 2,31±1.35 mm, for Miller’s class II – 4,27±2,40 mm, for Miller’s class III – 6.31 ± 2.86 mm, for Miller’s class IV – 7,53±2,29 mm. Among all diagnosed recessions cases that were observed among patients of different age subgroups, 13,71±6,72% were associated with periodontitis pathology, 5,04±2,98% with overcrowding, 7,80±3,84% with signs of pathological attrition, 9,06±2,13% with non-carious cervical dental lesions, 7,85±1,60% with carious lesions of enamel and dentin, 7,97±1,83% with parafunctional activity and/or traumatic occlusion pattern, 7,85±4,26% with the fact of orthodontic intervention, 9,75±2,44% with existing problematic restorations, 8,16±1.62% with anomalies of teeth position, 7,72±0,74% with inadequate oral hygiene condition, 5,25±0,90% with bad habits that were identified during anamnesis collection, 5,28±2,60% with anomalies of mucous bundles attachment, while in 4,55±4,18% of the cases diagnosed recessions were not clinically associated with functional or structural dental status disorders. The results of study demonstrated a progressive increase in the number of recessions associated with periodontal disease (p < 0,05), pathological attrition (p < 0,05), non-carious dental lesions (p <0.05) and problematic restorations (p < 0,05 ) related to the parallel increase of patients’ average age, which according to the provided regression analysis was statistically significant during the comparison of such studied parameters among different age subgroups. Patients aged 30 years and older, male, and those with clinical signs of periodontitis, pathological attrition, non-carious and carious cervical lesions, poor oral hygiene, overcrowding of teeth, abnormalities of teeth position and abnormal attachment of mucous membranes could be categorized as those having potential risk for further recession development. Therefore, such patients require provision of timely comprehensive dental treatment to maintain the level of soft tissue coverage in the area of their own teeth and to correct changes in dental status associated with gingival recession development. Considering established relationship between the frequency of recession diagnostics among patients of different age subgroups and associated age-related, iatrogenic and pathological changes of dental status, it is advisable to determine how the latter may affect the prognosis of surgical treatment of gingival recessions with the use of flap displacement techniques and different soft tissue transplants for restoring soft tissue coverage of exposed root surfaces.
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9

Bhattacharya, Abhi, Valerie Good e Hanieh Sardashti. "Doing good when times are bad: the impact of CSR on brands during recessions". European Journal of Marketing 54, n. 9 (29 giugno 2020): 2049–77. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/ejm-01-2019-0088.

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Purpose This paper aims to determine what the brand performance consequences of corporate social responsibility (CSR) activities would be during times of recession for well-known brands. Design/methodology/approach Based on signaling theory, this paper investigates if CSR activities serve to signal higher brand value for consumers via perceptions of better quality and greater differentiation, specifically during recessions. This study incorporates a representative longitudinal sample of known US firms for the analyses, which is accomplished through generalized method of moments estimations. Findings The findings empirically demonstrate that CSR initiatives during recessions are actually associated with increased perceptions of brand value. More specifically, during recessions, CSR initiatives such as charitable contributions provide a signal to customers of higher brand quality. Research limitations/implications This study did not control for the costs of doing specific CSR activities that may be less visible to consumers. Practical implications While individual firms or managers may not be able to prevent recessions from happening, they can limit the negative impact of recessions on their performance by engaging in CSR activities (or refrain from cutting back) during these times. Social implications Because CSR initiatives during recessions result in more favorable consumer perceptions of the brand, engaging in CSR aligns both social and managerial interests, owing to the economic gains from CSR investments. Originality/value During times of recession, some critics indicate that CSR may be an unaffordable luxury. On the contrary, this research shows that managers may want to consider CSR activities as a means of increasing the value of their brands, especially during economic recessions.
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Mohapi, Tjhaka Alphons, e I. Botha. "The Explanatory Power Of The Yield Curve In Predicting Recessions In South Africa". International Business & Economics Research Journal (IBER) 12, n. 6 (24 maggio 2013): 613. http://dx.doi.org/10.19030/iber.v12i6.7868.

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The term structure of interest rates, particularly the term spreaddetermined from the difference between ten-year government bond yields andthree-month Treasury bill yields, has received increased attention as avaluable forecasting tool for the purposes of monetary policy and recessionforecasting. This is on the back of the observed positive relationship betweenterm spread and economic activity. Moreover, the term spread has been observedto invert prior to the occurrence of economic recessions both in developed anddeveloping countries.This study investigated the forecasting ability of the South African(S.A.) term spread in predicting S.A. recessions, taking into account therecent global economic recession. The motivation is due to the forecastingconsistencies illustrated by the term spread in providing statisticallyincorrect signals of recession in 2003, which did not transit into reality. Itimplied a weak relationship between the S.A. term spread and economic activity.Moreover, based on observations from the literature that term spreads andeconomic activities across countries are correlated, the term spreads of China,United States (U.S.) and Germany were investigated and compared to the S.A.term spread to determine which better forecasts S.A. recessions. The studyemployed the Dynamic Probit Model since it is considered to provide a betterpredictive edge over the Traditional Static Probit model.The findings revealed that the S.A. term spread accurately predicted allthe S.A recessions since 1980; Chinese term spread accurately predicted the1996 and 2008 S.A recessions; U.S. term spread predicted some recessions; whileGerman term spread predictions were counter-cyclical.
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Più fonti

Tesi sul tema "Recessions"

1

Stevenson, James Robert. "Predicting U. S. recessions : the housing market and 2008 recession". Honors in the Major Thesis, University of Central Florida, 2010. http://digital.library.ucf.edu/cdm/ref/collection/ETH/id/1502.

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This item is only available in print in the UCF Libraries. If this is your Honors Thesis, you can help us make it available online for use by researchers around the world by following the instructions on the distribution consent form at http://library.ucf.edu/Systems/DigitalInitiatives/DigitalCollections/InternetDistributionConsentAgreementForm.pdf You may also contact the project coordinator, Kerri Bottorff, at kerri.bottorff@ucf.edu for more information.
Bachelors
Business Administration
Economics
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2

Helmersson, Tobias, Hana Kang e Robin Sköld. "Gold During Recessions : A study about how gold can improve the performance of a portfolio during recessions". Thesis, Jönköping University, JIBS, Accounting and Finance, 2008. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:hj:diva-7746.

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Problem

When choosing topic for this study the economy was on the brink of a recession. Many experts made varying statements regarding this fact, and further readings in this area led us to question: can an in- clusion of gold enhance the performance in an index portfolio dur- ing recessions? And if so, how much should be allocated to gold?

Purpose

The purpose of this thesis is to look back at the historical price de- velopment of gold and DJIA during recessions in order to find out whether an inclusion of gold can improve a DJIA index portfolio held in today’s recession. In addition, by analyzing the risks and pos- sibilities with gold, the optimal allocation of gold in a DJIA portfolio will be investigated in.

 

Method

The methodological approach will be of a quantitative data analysis approach. By using historical data, new empirical findings will be found by using the deductive approach. This method has been cho- sen due to the nature of the purpose and in order to best give a gen- eral answer to our research questions.

Conclusion

The gold price is strongly influenced by uncertainty, and even though an optimal allocation of gold in each recession could be found, no general optimal allocation applicable in today’s recession could be found. Gold has higher risk (higher variance) than DJIA, but is compensated with higher return as well.

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3

Xing, Kai. "Macroeconomic conditions, corporate defaults, and economic recessions". Thesis, University of Nottingham, 2017. http://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/39401/.

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In this thesis, I investigate effective predictors for corporate defaults and measurement of economic recessions. I use corporate default probabilities in US industrial firms from April 1980 to December 2014 and effective predictors extracted from 92 macroeconomic and financial variables and I propose a framework to determine whether there is a dynamic in effective predictors for US corporate defaults. I apply LASSO, an advanced variable selection technique, and I find that there are no macro factors that can consistently explain default risk over time, suggesting that default risk has been dynamic during the 35-year period. These dynamics persist even during non-recession periods. Interestingly, the strong predictive powers of macro factors over shorter periods are related to monetary policy indicators and tools, which provides empirical support for prior theoretical theories that emphasize the unique role of monetary policies in corporate defaults. Another interesting finding is that institutional market funding, as the liquidity source provided by non-bank groups, has gradually impacted on corporate defaults since the 2001 recession. In the financial crisis occuring in 2007 this money market funds (MMFs) have strongest impact on corproate defaults. This implies that MMFs paly a crucial role of destabilizing credit markets in recent years, which is consistent with current studies of whether MMFs can result in financial stability. I study US economic recessions by introducing a cutting-edged technique from the Natural Sciences in order to capture the critical transitions in the macroeconomic system, using hundreds of macroeconomic and financial variables covering the period January 1980 to December 2014. Based on this method, I construct macro indicators to measure the interactions among these variables in order to capture the critical transitions in the macroeconomic system. Then I employ a standard logit model to study whether these proposed indicators offer a prediction one-month ahead of US economic recessions from September 1980 to December 2014. I find that the interactions among macroeconomic and financial variables measured by covariance among these variables can provide one-month ahead prediction for US economic recessions. In particular, the best predictive macro indicators are constructed by employing procyclical factors and factors from six economic groups based on results from both in-sample and out-of-sample analysis. Regarding the standard ideal indicator defined by Shiskin and Moore (1967), the indicator constructed by procyclical factors is preferable over that constructed by the factors from six economic groups since the former is smoother. I also find that the threshold based on 25% for classifying the recessions can generate better estimation results than using 50%, consistent with prior studies. In forecasting economic recessions in the US, the indicator generated by using broad macro factors is able to provide predictive power. The implication of these results is to provide a new quantitative approach for central bankers and policy makers to predict economic recessions one month ahead.
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4

Di, Caro Paolo. "Recessions, Recoveries and Regional Resilience: an econometric perspective". Doctoral thesis, Università di Catania, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/10761/1540.

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Three chapters constitute the main structure of this contribution. Chapter I reviews selected theoretical and empirical approaches dealing with regional evolution in order to identify recent developments and extensions incorporating spatial econometrics techniques. Chapter II investigates transient and permanent asymmetric effects of national-wide recessions across Italian regions during the last thirty years, by proposing the recent resilience framework as an helpful synthesis. Chapter III studies the determinants of the uneven cross-regional behaviour during crises and recoveries, by presenting two complementary econometric models, namely a linear vector error correction (VECM) model and a non-linear smooth-transition autoregressive (STAR) specification. Some of the main results here obtained are: regions within the same country differ in terms of both shock-absorption and post-recession pattern; the broad impact of a common shock shall take into account temporary and persistent effects; differences in recessions and recoveries among areas can be motivated by some elements such as industrial structure, export propensity, human and civic capital, and financial constraints. Moreover, the presence of spatial interdependencies and neighbouring interactions can play a relevant role. Moving from some of the results here presented, the desirable next step should be addressed towards a deeper analysis of the determinants of regional heterogeneity during recessions and recoveries, cross-country comparisons, the development of a more structured theoretical and empirical background, the assessment of the place-specific impact of countercyclical policies. These and other questions are left for future research.
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5

Thibane, Tankiso Abel. "Response of the IMF and the World Bank to the Great Recession and the Euro sovereign crisis in a globalising world". Thesis, Nelson Mandela University, 2018. http://hdl.handle.net/10948/16142.

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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) now the World Bank, were created in the mid-1940s. The IMF was tasked to manage the post-war international monetary system, while the World Bank’s role during its early years was to provide development finance to war-torn Europe. These institutions reformed some of their roles to make them relevant to the globalising world over the years and also responded to several post-war crises. Since these two institutions carry out their roles in a globalising world, this study has revealed that globalisation has different interpretations as many researchers refer to the economic and non-economic explanations of its meaning. Globalisation is also a historical process as it traces back several years ago. Since approximately the mid-2000s, the global economy experienced two economic crises, namely the US sub-prime financial crisis that later became the Great Recession and the Euro sovereign crisis. The two economic crises spread to other countries globally that were interconnected into the global economy regarding international trade, investment and banking. These two crisis events required responses from the IMF and the World Bank. The two institutions displayed a variety of strengths and weaknesses in dealing with the recession and the Euro crisis. The lending of both these institutions has been their strength as they have managed to expand their lending capacity during the two crisis periods examined. The IMF’s crisis intervention time frames have also been its strength, as the speed in which it has approved financial assistance requests has been within reasonable time frames. The IMF’s new lending instruments have been its weakness, as the success of these instruments has not been fully tested so far. This is because of the little use of the IMF’s new lending instruments. The IMF’s crisis prevention efforts through the use of its surveillance tools have also been its flaw. This is based on the fact that it has failed to prevent the US financial crisis (later the Great Recession) and the Euro sovereign crisis. Overall, this study found that these institutions played a significant role in responding to the Great Recession and Euro sovereign crisis as their strengths outweigh their weaknesses. However, the weaknesses of the IMF confirm that it needs to reform its role and learn from its flaws in the future.
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6

Naidoo, Jefrey Subramoney. "Forecasting recessions: The convergence of information and predictive analytics". THE UNIVERSITY OF ALABAMA, 2011. http://pqdtopen.proquest.com/#viewpdf?dispub=3439830.

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7

Castro, Fernandez Juan Carlos. "Essays on financial crises, big recessions and slow recoveries". Thesis, University of Warwick, 2017. http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/106445/.

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Abstract (sommario):
In this thesis I presented two essays motivated by the observation that financial crises tend to be accompanied by deeper recessions and slower recoveries, partly due to debt burden (e.g. Reinhart & Rogoff, 2009; Hong and Tornell, 2005; Jordà, et al., 2013). In the first essay I evaluate this claim against the contrasting view that magnitude and persistence of recessions is rather the consequence of bigger and more persistent shocks (Stock & Watson, 2012). To do so, I compute recovery and recession paths through the estimation of impulse responses by local projections methods (Jordà, 2005). I found that the occurrence of financial crises is associated with more severe recessions only if the recession itself is big enough. But this effect disappears when the output loss caused by the recession is below the historical average. More importantly, neither the magnitude of the loss, nor the occurrence of financial crises, nor debt accumulation are associated with sluggish output growth during recoveries. It has also being suggested that expectations prior to the crisis help to determine the magnitude and length of recessions following financial crises (Chauvet and Guo, 2003; Cerra and Saxena, 2008). This and the role of pre-crisis dynamics is not properly reflected in standard DSGE models. In the second essay I account for the effect of pre- crisis dynamics and evaluate whether financial crises are different. To do so, I introduce optimism (in the form of unrealised news about capital quality) in an otherwise standard DSGE model with financial frictions. Under this framework, optimism generates investment–debt / boom-bust cycles accompanied by long recessions. I found that within this framework cycles associated with financial and technology news shocks are different regarding the responses of asset prices and banks’ net worth. Real variables respond similarly to unjustified financial or technological optimism.
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8

Forsythe, Eliza C. (Eliza Carla). "Hiring, recessions, and careers : three essays in personnel economics". Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/90122.

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Abstract (sommario):
Thesis: Ph. D., Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Department of Economics, 2014.
Cataloged from PDF version of thesis.
Includes bibliographical references (pages 100-103).
Workers find wage-growth and job-satisfaction by building careers. However a worker's ability to string together a sequence of jobs relies on the availability of appropriate opportunities either within their current firm or in other firms in the market. In this thesis, I investigate how variation in the labor market affects this career building process. In the first chapter, I find that career opportunities are scarce for young workers during recessions, and use theory and evidence to argue that this is due to firms choosing to hire more experienced workers instead. In the second chapter, I find that firms reallocate their employees between occupations during recessions, leading workers to receive lower wages and be employed in lower-quality occupations. In the third chapter, I develop a model to explain why workers change firms when opportunities exist within the firm. I show that heterogeneity in firms' production functions and human capital acquisition are sufficient to generate these movements. More specifically, in the first two chapters I use data from the CPS to study reallocations over the business cycle. In Chapter 1, I find that during recessions the probability of being hired falls for young workers, while for experienced workers it rises. I develop a model and show this fact can be explained by firms choosing to hire workers with greater work experience when labor markets are slack. My model provides the distinctive prediction that during recessions, young workers will match with lower-quality jobs and receive lower wages while experienced workers will exhibit no change in either dimension. I develop occupational quality indices using O*NET and OES data and find evidence consistent with both predictions, suggesting that firms' hiring behavior actively contributes to negative outcomes for young workers during recessions. In Chapter 2, I document that occupational mobility is counter-cyclical. I show this is driven by an increase in occupational mobility within firms. I show that these within-firm occupation changers lose ground during recessions, matching with lower-quality jobs and receiving lower wages. Combined with the recessionary increase in within-firm mobility, these results suggest a previously undiscovered cost of recessions borne by employed workers. Finally, in Chapter 3, I develop a model that demonstrates how career-advancing inter-firm mobility can persist despite the possibility of within-firm mobility. I argue that many of these movements are driven by firm heterogeneity and human capital acquisition and show such a model can capture three key empirical regularities: experienced workers are hired into advanced positions, wages rise more at movements between positions (within and between firms) than at stays in the current firm, and external hires tend to have different qualifications than internal promotees. JEL Classification: E24, J62, M51.
by Eliza C. Forsythe.
Ph. D.
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Huang, Di. "Predicting Recessions in the U.S. with Yield Curve Spread". Thesis, North Dakota State University, 2013. https://hdl.handle.net/10365/27126.

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This paper proposes a hidden Markov model for the signal of U.S. recessions. The model uses the spread of interest rate between 10-year Treasury bond and 3-month Treasury bill, together with other financial indicators which are the real M2 growth, the change in the Standard and Poor's 500 index of stock prices, and difference between the 6-month commercial paper and 6-month Treasury bill rates as predictors. The hidden Markov model considers temporal dependence between the recession signals and provides an estimate of the long-term probability of recessions. The empirical results indicate the hidden Markov model well predict the signal of recessions in the U.S.
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Chairattanapisuth, Termsak. "Processes a business can use to stay competitive during a recession". Online version, 2001. http://www.uwstout.edu/lib/thesis/2001/2001chairattanapt.pdf.

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Libri sul tema "Recessions"

1

Fund, International Monetary. Recessions and recoveries. Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund, 2002.

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2

Romer, Christina. What ends recessions? Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1994.

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M, Pérez Nerea, e Ortega June A, a cura di. Recessions: Prospects and developments. New York: Nova Science Publishers, Inc., 2009.

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4

Gale, Edward. Recessions/depressions: Fed style. West Conshohocken, PA: Infinity Pub., 2010.

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Cosgrove, Karen. What causes Irish recessions: Fluctuations inaggregrate demand or aggregrate supply? Maynooth, Co Kildare: Maynooth College, Department of Economics, 1994.

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Fukyō no keizai riron. Tōkyō: Iwanami Shoten, 2012.

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Sadli, Mohammad. Coping with the recession in Asean: The case of Indonesia. Singapore: Heinemann Asia, 1987.

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Semmler, Willi. Asset Prices, Booms and Recessions. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2011. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-20680-1.

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Audas, Richard P. A tale of two recessions. Bangor: University of Wales, Bangor, 1996.

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D, Hamilton James. The propagation of regional recessions. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, 2011.

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Capitoli di libri sul tema "Recessions"

1

Sandling, Molly, e Kimberley L. Chandler. "The 2000s Recessions". In Exploring America in the 2000s, 123–33. New York: Routledge, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.4324/9781003235118-11.

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Amine, Khadija, Wafa El Kholti e Jamila Kissa. "Etiology of Gingival Recessions". In Periodontal Root Coverage, 9–24. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-20091-6_2.

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McArthur, Daniel, e Aaron Reeves. "The rhetoric of recessions". In The Media and Inequality, 98–116. London: Routledge, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.4324/9781003104476-10.

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Tsionas, Efthymios G. "Understanding Crises and Recessions". In Financial and Monetary Policy Studies, 51–55. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-01171-4_10.

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Bilo, Simon. "Diverted Attention During Recessions". In Entrepreneurship and the Market Process, 13–26. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-42408-4_2.

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Amine, Khadija, Wafa El Kholti e Jamila Kissa. "Gingival Recessions: Definition and Classification". In Periodontal Root Coverage, 3–7. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-20091-6_1.

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Samli, A. Coskun. "Recessions Are Totally Man Made". In From a Market Economy to a Finance Economy, 97–113. New York: Palgrave Macmillan US, 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/9781137322982_8.

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Mickiewicz, Tomasz. "Liberalizations, Partial Liberalizations and Recessions". In Economics of Institutional Change, 88–109. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2010. http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/9780230291287_7.

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Mickiewicz, Tomasz. "Post-Communist Recessions Re-Examined". In Economic Transition in Central Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States, 99–118. London: Palgrave Macmillan UK, 2005. http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/9780230504349_6.

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Siegler, Mark V. "Recessions, Depressions, and Stabilization Policies". In An Economic History of the United States, 366–90. London: Macmillan Education UK, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/978-1-137-39396-8_18.

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Atti di convegni sul tema "Recessions"

1

Kaya, Hüseyin. "On the Predictive Power of the Yield Spread for Future Growth and Recession: The Turkish Case". In International Conference on Eurasian Economies. Eurasian Economists Association, 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.36880/c04.00645.

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This paper investigates the predictive power of the yield spread on future industrial production growth and recession in Turkey. Employing the linear regression model we find that the yield spread has predictive power when forecasting industrial production growth. The results also suggest that in the inflation targeting monetary policy period, predictive power of the yield spread has increased. Furthermore, we investigate whether the yield spread predicts recession by employing a probit model. Since no official recessions are available in Turkey, we determine the recessions using the BBQ methodology. The findings suggest that the yield spread predicts the recessions about one year ahead.
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Bishev, Gligor, Aleksandar Stojkov e Fatmir Besimi. "FISCAL POLICIES IN PANDEMIC TIMES: EUROPEAN EXPERIENCES". In Economic and Business Trends Shaping the Future. Ss Cyril and Methodius University, Faculty of Economics-Skopje, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.47063/ebtsf.2021.0007.

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The pandemic recession was fundamentally different from ordinary recessions, and thus required a different policy response. We review the empirical literature on fiscal consolidation and fiscal multipliers. Then, we assess the impact of fiscal policies on the pace of recovery and public debt sustainability. A premature or a strong fiscal consolidation might result in lower rates of economic growth and elevated public debt as a share of GDP. We critically analyze different adjustment paths across Europe and offer policy-relevant recommendations. The issue is particularly relevant for countries with a strong fiscal stimulus and moderate to high levels of public debt.
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Jackson, Bruce, e Manjeet Rege. "Machine Learning for Classification of Economic Recessions". In 2019 IEEE 20th International Conference on Information Reuse and Integration for Data Science (IRI). IEEE, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/iri.2019.00019.

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Bašić, Filip. "CAN PRODUCTION OF ALCOHOL BEVERAGES PREDICT RECESSIONS?" In 12th Economics & Finance Conference, Dubrovnik. International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.20472/efc.2019.012.002.

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Akyüz, Ayşen, e Mustafa Ercilasun. "The Role of Advertising during Recession". In International Conference on Eurasian Economies. Eurasian Economists Association, 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.36880/c05.01141.

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Advertising plays a key role in a dynamic economy. It provides valuable information about products and services in an efficient manner; communicates customer value, builds brand awareness and creates demand. In a recession, the first things that a company usually cuts come from the advertising budget. When companies begin to cut back on advertising during an economic downturn, they become less visible to the public. While it make sense to cut off from communication budget, the evidence shows that the companies which advertise during an economic downturn, have expanded their market share and have maintained their solid image. Therefore according to marketers, neglecting marketing efforts during an economic downturn will result in weakening the brand and making it less profitable in the long run. The present study aims to provide an understanding of the marketing communications’ specifically advertising’s impact on companies’ performance during and after recession. It lays out the theoretical foundations to evaluate the impact of advertising during the recessions and provides some evidence from the world. It is believed to be paramount to examine the existing literature and researches to create awareness in the field, about the importance and impact of advertising during economic downturns.
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Zyatkov, Nikolay, e Olga Krivorotko. "Forecasting Recessions in the US Economy Using Machine Learning Methods". In 2021 17th International Asian School-Seminar "Optimization Problems of Complex Systems (OPCS). IEEE, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/opcs53376.2021.9588678.

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Şimşek, Türker, Emre Aslan, Atila Karkacıer e Ahmet Güven. "Identifying the Factors Affecting Business Cycles Synchronization between Turkey and Macedonia Economies". In International Conference on Eurasian Economies. Eurasian Economists Association, 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.36880/c05.01120.

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This study aim to identify the affecting factors about business cycles synchronization between Turkey and its trade partner, Macedonia. For a better understanding of the subject, we give the theoretical and empirical literatures. Countries are faced with crises and recessions because of often fluctuations in the economy. Dynamic structure of economic fluctuations should be analyzed for the combat the crises and recessions. It must be analyzed the relationship between business cycles fluctuations and economic variables with sophisticated econometric methods. Analyzing the business cycles synchronization is important for the sake of stability and determining the prudential policies. We used Panel Generalized Methods of Moments to analyze the business cycles synchronization between Turkey and its trade partner, Macedonia via STATA. Identifying the determinants of business cycles synchronizations between Turkey and Macedonian economies provide the effective economic policies in these countries. Effective economic policy increase the trade volume between Turkey and Macedonia. If we identify the business cycles synchronization correctly, policy makers take an advantage for interventions on economy. After the analyzed, we conclude that there is a business cycles synchronization between Turkey and Macedonia.
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Balcılar, Mehmet. "COVID-19 Recession: The Global Economy in Crisis". In International Conference on Eurasian Economies. Eurasian Economists Association, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.36880/c12.02467.

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In January 2020, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicted that the world economy would grow by 3.3% in 2020. However, in its latest forecasts, in April, it predicts a contraction of 3.0%, without growth prospects and with numerous risks. The World bank even forecasts a 3.6% contraction in 2020. These forecasts are already seen as overestimates. Most baseline forecast envisions the deepest global recession since World War II. This study analyzes various economics impacts of the COVID-19 on a global scale. If the global recession expected due to the effects of the coronavirus (COVID-19) would lead to a decline in growth rate of global gross domestic product (GDP) between 2.0% and 10.% in all countries in 2020, the number of unemployed people in the net food importer countries would increase between 14.4 million and 80.3 million; the biggest part of the increase would occur in low-income countries. As the pandemic has shown its most severe impact on the largest world economies, the study considers the developments in United States, Euro Area, Japan and China. The recessions in these parts of the world spreads to the other countries and one should primarily consider these regions. Next we consider the trends in global trades, financial markets, and commodity markets. In association with the four regions of the global economy and trends in global trade, financial markets and commodity markets we consider recent developments in emerging markets.
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Maldonado, Isabel, e Carlos Pinho. "Recessions in Portugal: The Predictive Power of Term Structure of Interest Rates Components". In The 7th International Virtual Scientific Conference. Publishing Society, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.18638/ictic.2018.7.1.329.

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Özdemir, Dilek, Ömer Selçuk Emsen, Ayşen Hiç Gencer e Cemil Hakan Kılıç. "The Relationship between Economic Growth and Income Distribution: The Case of Transition Economies". In International Conference on Eurasian Economies. Eurasian Economists Association, 2011. http://dx.doi.org/10.36880/c02.00291.

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In the literature on economic growth, Kuznets curve shows the relationship between growth and income distribution. According to the Kuznets curve, as per capita income rises, income distribution would first become more unequal, and then less unequal. This means that, in a less developed country poverty is shared; in a developing country the difference between the rich and the poor becomes wider; and in a developed country richness is shared. In economies in transition, from socialism to market economy, however, income distribution should be less unequal because of the socialist system. But during the transition, there occurred recessions that led to falls in income. Therefore, during the transition process, as income decreased, income distribution became more unequal. In this study, the relationship between per capita income and income distribution on the transition economies are investigated by means of panel data analysis. The results obtained are then compared with the Kuznets curve.
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Rapporti di organizzazioni sul tema "Recessions"

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Perri, Fabrizio, e Vincenzo Quadrini. International Recessions. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, luglio 2011. http://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w17201.

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Romer, Christina, e David Romer. What Ends Recessions? Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, giugno 1994. http://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w4765.

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Ayres, João, e Gajendran Raveendranathan. Firm Entry and Exit during Recessions. Inter-American Development Bank, giugno 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.18235/0003356.

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We analyze shocks to productivity, collateral constraint (credit shock), firm operation, and labor disutility in a model of firm dynamics with entry and exit. Shocks to firm operation and labor disutility capture COVID-19 lockdowns. Compared to the productivity shock, the credit and the lockdown shocks generate larger changes in firm entry and exit. The credit shock accounts for lower entry, higher exit, and concentration of exit among young firms during the Great Recession. The lockdown shocks predict a large fall in entry and rise in exit followed by a sharp rebound. In both recessions, changes in entry and exit account for 10-20 percent of the fall in output and hours. Finally, we discuss how the modeling of potential entrants matters for the quantitative results.
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Aguiar, Mark, Erik Hurst e Loukas Karabarbounis. Time Use During Recessions. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, luglio 2011. http://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w17259.

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Hoynes, Hilary, Douglas Miller e Jessamyn Schaller. Who Suffers During Recessions? Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, marzo 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w17951.

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Ruhm, Christopher. Recessions, Healthy No More? Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, agosto 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w19287.

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Huo, Zhen, e José-Víctor Ríos-Rull. Paradox of Thrift Recessions. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, settembre 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w19443.

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Berger, David, e Joseph Vavra. Consumption Dynamics During Recessions. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, maggio 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w20175.

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Ayres, João, e Gajendran Raveendranathan. Firm Exit during Recessions. Inter-American Development Bank, aprile 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.18235/0002289.

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Coile, Courtney, Phillip Levine e Robin McKnight. Recessions, Older Workers, and Longevity: How Long Are Recessions Good For Your Health? Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, settembre 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w18361.

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