Articoli di riviste sul tema "Probabilities – textbooks"

One way of grabbing students' interest in probability is to present the rules of a game of chance, ask them whether the game is fair, and have them use their intuition to give a ballpark estimate of the probability of winning. The issue of fairness can be counted on to arouse the interest of many students, and fairness of games is a topic that has found its way into textbooks (see, e.g., Chapin et al. [1994]). Having students commit to an answer helps to arouse and sustain their interest because they want to see whether their intuition is correct. Students also learn that giving an impulsive, intuitive, and incorrect answer to a probability question is easy, but a good approach to finding the correct answer is to examine how each possible outcome is produced under the rules of the game. Giving students experiences in looking at the underlying structures of a number of games offers them opportunities to enhance their probability intuition.

In genetics education, symbols are used for alleles to visualize them and to explain probabilities of progeny and inheritance paradigms. In this study, we identified symbol systems used in genetics textbooks and the justifications provided for changes in the symbol systems. Moreover, we wanted to understand how students justify the use of different symbol systems when solving genetics problems. We analyzed eight textbooks from three different countries worldwide. We then presented a genetics problem to eight 9th-grade students and probed their justifications for the use of different symbol systems. Our findings showed that there is no one conventional symbol system in textbooks; instead, symbol systems are altered along and within textbooks according to the genetic context. More importantly, this alteration is not accompanied by any explicit explanation for the alteration. Student interviews revealed that some students were able to identify the genetic context of each symbol system, whereas others, who were unable to do so, provided justifications based on different non-genetics-related reasons. We discuss the implications of our analysis for how multiple symbol systems should be presented in textbooks, and how they should be introduced in the classroom.

The importance of visual representations in education and mathematics is well known. Probabilities are a domain in mathematics that uses many visual representations since their theory consists of a variety of diagrams and graphs. In the past, many studies have shown that the use of various representations in teaching probabilities can greatly improve learning. Of course, the use of a visual representation or a visual tool when teaching or solving an exercise can have a variety of roles. The present work is based on the ancillary and informative role of the image. The following research examines the extent to which students, by solving a probability problem, have the need to use a visual representation or image. Additionally, the differences in student performance are investigated, given the role of the image in the activity. This knowledge can improve the teaching methods of probabilities and, with their appropriate use, school textbooks. The results show that there are more perspectives but also needs for research on the use of visual representations for the teaching of probabilities. The presence of the image works as a motivating factor for children to solve a problem with a lack of probabilistic knowledge, but the role of the image affects their final performance.

Textbooks are considered essential, providing a hierarchical organisation of knowledge, forging the intellectual scaffolding of students and teachers alike, and playing a crucial role in compulsory education. In this paper we discuss, by means of a content analysis, the systematic errors detected in the presentation of questions related to statistics and probability in Spanish secondary school textbooks on mathematics. We found some errors appear systematically in the texts, and the most common are: faulty differentiation between quantitative and qualitative variables, between discrete and continuous variables and between randomness and determinism, confused examples for the bar charts, uncritical choice for graphic representations, inaccuracies in specific vocabulary, and ignoring prior probabilities and a poor consideration about representativeness. We classify the observed errors considering that some of these errors arise from the inherent difficulty of the content and others arise from differences between mathematical and statistical thinking as well as from judgments based on heuristic rules. Knowing the existence of these errors and the reasons why they occur are key points to make them disappear from statistical lessons and to help citizens achieving true statistical literacy.

Standard textbooks in core Statistics and Management Science classes present various examples to introduce basic probability concepts to undergraduate business students. These include tossing of a coin, throwing a die, and examples of that nature. While these are good examples to introduce basic probability, we use improvised versions of Russian Roulette and found these to be very effective in communicating important concepts in probability to our business school students. We use these modified versions of Russian Roulette to communicate concepts such as dependent event, joint probabilities and the value of information using Bayes’ law. The students understand and enjoy these examples and the class participation has been higher than usual.

This study tried to explore the degree of representation of math textbooks for grades (4-8) in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia concerning the key concepts, shape, and levels of questions used in the TIMSS test. The study population of this study includes both students and teachers from fourth grade to eighth grade. The goal of this study was associated with six key concepts including numbers and their operations, algebra, geometry, measurement, statistics and probability, and a pro-rata. The researcher analyzed the questions and exercises used in the math textbooks to identify their effectiveness and efficiency. In addition, the researcher also calculated the percentages, the levels, and the shape for each key concept. The results of the study were organized in frequency tables. In the light of those results, the researcher recommended the need to rewrite the mathematics curriculum and textbooks for grades (4-8) to focus on the level of questions and exercises used to be best fit for the students comprehending level. Furthermore, the researcher also recommended to developed questions in the form of multiple-choice focusing on the content of the main concepts (statistics and probabilities, and a pro-rata) because of its importance in the life of the student. In addition, the resented figured out the need of conducting similar studies on the analysis of the results for Saudi students in an international math test, which was conducted in 2011 and 2015.

In this paper, we studied the methods of computing sample quantiles for the case of discrete probability distributions. There are two main methods which are introduced in statistics textbooks. We compared these two methods by simulation from practical and educational necessity. We considered some cases of Poisson, binomial, geometric, negative binomial, and discrete uniform distributions by setting up the parameters, and for each distribution we performed 10,000 times of simulation of drawing random samples of size 20 and 50. At each time of simulation, we computed the difference between the population quantile and the sample quantile obtained by each method. We compared the two methods by using two criteria: one is the mean square error over 10,000 times of simulation, and the other is the frequency of obtaining closer sample quantile to the population quantile than the competing method. We also obtained the estimated probabilities of exact estimation of population quantiles for the two methods, and performed the tests of homogeneity on the probability distribution of under-estimation, exact estimation, and over-estimation of the population quantiles.

This paper develops a dynamic model of consumer search that, despite placing very little structure on the dynamic problem faced by consumers, allows us to exploit intertemporal variation in price distributions to estimate the distribution from which consumer search costs are initially drawn. We show that static approaches to estimating this distribution may suffer from dynamic sample selection bias. This can happen if consumers are forward‐looking and delay their purchases in a way that systematically depends on their individual search costs. We consider identification of the population search cost distribution using only price data and develop estimable nonparametric upper and lower bounds on the distribution function, as well as a nonlinear least squares estimator for parametric models. We also consider the additional identifying power of weak, theoretical assumptions such as monotonicity of purchase probabilities in search costs. We apply our estimators to analyze the online market for two widely used econometrics textbooks. Our results suggest that static estimates of the search cost distribution are biased upwards, in a distributional sense, relative to the true population distribution. We illustrate this and other forms of bias in a small‐scale simulation study.

Vanderweele and Knol define biological interaction as an instance wherein “two exposures physically interact to bring about the outcome.” A hallmark of biological interaction is that the total effect, produced when factors act together, differs from the sum of effects when the factors operate independently. Epidemiologists construct statistical models to assess biological interaction. The form of the statistical model determines whether it is suited to detecting departures from additivity of effects or for detecting departures from multiplicativity of effects. A consensus exists that biological interaction should be assessed as a departure from additivity of effects.This paper compares three statistical models’ assessment of a data example that appears in several epidemiology textbooks to illustrate biological interaction in a binomial outcome. A linear binomial model quantifies departure from additivity in the data example in terms of differences in probabilities. It generates directly interpretable estimates and 95% confidence intervals for parameters including the interaction contrast (IC). Log binomial and logistic regression models detect no departure from multiplicativity in the data example. However, their estimates contribute to calculation of a “Relative Excess Risk Due to Interaction” (RERI), a measure of departure from additivity on a relative risk scale. The linear binomial model directly produces interpretable assessments of departures from additivity of effects and deserves wider use in research and in the teaching of epidemiology. Strategies exist to address the model’s limitations.

ABSTRACTThis research is development with the aim of (1) developing social studies textbook VSD CTL-ariented appoarch in order to improve student learning outcomes,(2) determine the fasibility of fifth grade social studies textbook oriented appoarch to CTL, (3) determine student’s mastery of learning outcomes by using social studies textbook oriented approach CTL. Based on the descriptive analysis shows that the process of textbook development has been carried out according to the stages proposed thiagarajan and has been modified so that the researcher ends at the development stage. Textbooks have also developed good quality feasibility for use. The effectiveness of textbook tested with inferential statistics using SPSS 17.0 is throught the F test and t test. F numbers which assume the same for both varians with probability 0,224 (sig) 0,623 > 5% means that there is no difference between the experimental and control variants. Figures t-test assuming equal variance both populations is -5,782 with probability (sig) of 0.000. therefore, the number probability <0.05, means there is a difference between the value of the posttest experimental class and control class posttest values, so it can be concluded that the learning outcomes of students by using teaching buju better developed than on the learning outcomes of students who only use regular textbooks. The conclusions derived from the research that has been done stating that the textbook has been developed, meets the eligibility criteria to be used in learning and more active student activity using textbooks, because the more euthusiastic students to understand the materials so that there are differences in the value of students learningoutcomes significantly between Va classes that do not use textbooks and the value of student learning outcomes using Vb class textbook. values class Vb student learning outcomes using textbooks development obtaining learning outcomes Keywords:Textbook, Social Studies,CTL Resulf of Learning. ABSTRAK Penelitian ini merupakan penelitian pengembangan dengan tujuan (1) mengembangkan Bahan Ajar PKN kelas V yang berorentasi pada pendekatan CTL untuk meningkatkan hasil belajar siswa; (2) mengetahui tingkat kelayakan Bahan Ajar PKN kelas V yang berorentasi pada pendekatan CTL;(3) mengetahui ketuntasan hasil belajar siswa dengan menggunakan bahan ajar PKN yang berorentasi pada pendekatan CTL. Berdasarkan analisis deskriptif diperoleh bahwa proses pengembangan Bahan Ajar telah dilakukan sesuai tahapan yang dikemukakan Thiagarajan dan telah dimodifikasi peneliti sehingga berakhir pada tahap pengembangan. Bahan Ajar yang dikembangkan juga memiliki kualitas kelayakan baik untuk digunakan. Keefektifan Bahan Ajar diuji dengan statistic inferensial menggunakan SPSS 17.0 yaitu melalui uji F dan uji t. angka F yang mengansumsikan kedua varian sama sebesar 0,224 dengan probabilitas (sig) sebesar 0,623 > 5% berarti tidak ada perbedaan varian antara eksperimen dan control. ANgka t-test yang mengansumsikan varian kedua populasi sama adalah -5,782 dengan probabilitas (sig) sebesar 0,000. Oleh karena angka probabilitas <0,05, dapat diartikan ada perbedaan nilai posttest antara kelas eksperimen dan nilai nilai posttest kelas control, sehingga dapat disimpulkan bahwa hasil belajar siswa dengan menggunakan Bahan Ajar yang dikembangkan lebih baik dari hasil belajar siswa yang hanya menggunakan bahan ajar biasa. Simpulan yang diperoleh dari penelitian yang telah dilakukan menyatakan bahwa bahan ajar yang telah dikembangkan, memenuhi kriteria kelayakan untuk digunakan dalam pembelajaran, karena siswa lebih antusias untuk memahami materi sehingga ada perbedaan nilai hasil belajar siswa yang signifikan antara kelas Va yang tidak menggunakan bahan ajar dan nilai belajar siswa kelas Vb dengan menggunakan bahan ajar. Nilai hasil belajar siswa kelas Vb dengan menggunakan bahan ajar yang dikembangkan memperoleh hasil belajar. Kata kunci: Bahan Ajar, PKN, Contextual Teaching and Learning, Hasil Belajar.

Core quantum postulates including the superposition principle and the unitarity of evolutions are natural and strikingly simple. I show that—when supplemented with a limited version of predictability (captured in the textbook accounts by the repeatability postulate)—these core postulates can account for all the symptoms of classicality. In particular, both objective classical reality and elusive information about reality arise, via quantum Darwinism, from the quantum substrate. This approach shares with the Relative State Interpretation of Everett the view that collapse of the wavepacket reflects perception of the state of the rest of the Universe relative to the state of observer’s records. However, our “let quantum be quantum” approach poses questions absent in Bohr’s Copenhagen Interpretation that relied on the preexisting classical domain. Thus, one is now forced to seek preferred, predictable, hence effectively classical but ultimately quantum states that allow observers keep reliable records. Without such (i) preferred basis relative states are simply “too relative”, and the ensuing basis ambiguity makes it difficult to identify events (e.g., measurement outcomes). Moreover, universal validity of quantum theory raises the issue of (ii) the origin of Born’s rule, pk=|ψk|2, relating probabilities and amplitudes (that is simply postulated in textbooks). Last not least, even preferred pointer states (defined by einselection—environment—induced superselection)—are still quantum. Therefore, unlike classical states that exist objectively, quantum states of an individual system cannot be found out by an initially ignorant observer through direct measurement without being disrupted. So, to complete the `quantum theory of the classical’ one must identify (iii) quantum origin of objective existence and explain how the information about objectively existing states can appear to be essentially inconsequential for them (as it does for states in Newtonian physics) and yet matter in other settings (e.g., thermodynamics). I show how the mathematical structure of quantum theory supplemented by the only uncontroversial measurement postulate (that demands immediate repeatability—hence, predictability) leads to preferred states. These (i) pointer states correspond to measurement outcomes. Their stability is a prerequisite for objective existence of effectively classical states and for events such as quantum jumps. Events at hand, one can now enquire about their probability—the probability of a pointer state (or of a measurement record). I show that the symmetry of entangled states—(ii) entanglement—assisted invariance or envariance—implies Born’s rule. Envariance also accounts for the loss of phase coherence between pointer states. Thus, decoherence can be traced to symmetries of entanglement and understood without its usual tool—reduced density matrices. A simple and manifestly noncircular derivation of pk=|ψk|2 follows. Monitoring of the system by its environment in course of decoherence typically leaves behind multiple copies of its pointer states in the environment. Only pointer states can survive decoherence and can spawn such plentiful information-theoretic progeny. This (iii) quantum Darwinism allows observers to use environment as a witness—to find out pointer states indirectly, leaving systems of interest untouched. Quantum Darwinism shows how epistemic and ontic (coexisting in epiontic quantum state) separate into robust objective existence of pointer states and detached information about them, giving rise to extantons—composite objects with system of interest in the core and multiple records of its pointer states in the halo comprising of environment subsystems (e.g., photons) which disseminates that information throughout the Universe.

The paper is devoted to the study of what changes the course of the probability theory has undergone from the end of the 19th century to our time based on the analysis of The Theory of Probabilities textbook by Vasyl P. Ermakov published in 1878. In order to show the competence of the author of this textbook, his biography and creative development of V. P. Ermakov, a famous mathematician, Corresponding Member of the St. Petersburg Academy of Sciences, have been briefly reviewed. He worked at the Department of Pure Mathematics at Kyiv University, where he received the title of Honored Professor, headed the Department of Higher Mathematics at the Kyiv Polytechnic Institute, published the Journal of Elementary Mathematics, and he was one of the founders of the Kyiv Physics and Mathematics Society. The paper contains a comparative analysis of The Probability Theory textbook and modern educational literature. V. P. Ermakov's textbook uses only the classical definition of probability. It does not contain such concepts as a random variable, distribution function, however, it uses mathematical expectation. V. P. Ermakov insists on excluding the concept of moral expectation accepted in the science of that time from the probability theory. The textbook consists of a preface, five chapters, a synopsis containing the statements of the main results, and a collection of tasks with solutions and instructions. The first chapter deals with combinatorics, the presentation of which does not differ much from its modern one. The second chapter introduces the concepts of event and probability. Although operations on events have been not considered at all; the probabilities of intersecting and combining events have been discussed. However, the above rule for calculating the probability of combining events is generally incorrect for compatible events. The third chapter is devoted to events during repeated tests, mathematical expectation and contains Bernoulli's theorem, from which the law of large numbers follows. The next chapter discusses conditional probabilities, the simplest version of the conditional mathematical expectation, the total probability formula and the Bayesian formula (in modern terminology). The last chapter is devoted to the Jordan method and its applications. This method is not found in modern educational literature. From the above, we can conclude that the probability theory has made significant progress since the end of the 19th century. Basic concepts are formulated more rigorously; research methods have developed significantly; new sections have appeared.

In the context of spreading interest in textbook outcome (TO) evaluation in different fields, we aimed to investigate an uncharted procedure, that is, laparoscopic microwave ablation (MWA) for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Absence of post-MWA complications, a hospital stay of three days, no mortality nor readmission within 30 days, and complete response of the target lesion at post-MWA CT scan defined TO achievement. Patients treated between January 2014 and March 2021 were retrospectively reviewed, and of the 521 patients eligible for the study, 337 (64.7%) fulfilled all the quality indicators to achieve the TO. The absence of complications was the main limiting factor for accomplishing TO. At multivariable analysis, Child–Pugh B cirrhosis, age of more than 70 years old, three nodules, and MELD score ≥ 15 were associated with decreased probabilities of TO achievement. A score based on these factors was derived from multivariable analysis, and patients were divided into three risk groups for TO achievement. At survival analysis, overall survival (OS) was significantly (p = 0.001) higher in patients who achieved TO than those who did not. Moreover, OS evaluation in the three risk groups showed a trend coherent with TO achievement probability. The present study, having assessed the first TO for laparoscopic MWA for HCC, encourages further broader consensus on its definition and, on its basis, on the development of clinically relevant tools for managing treatment allocation.

AbstractProportional reasoning failures seem to constitute most errors in probabilistic reasoning, yet there is little empirical evidence about its role for attaining probabilistic knowledge and how to effectively intervene with students who have less proportional reasoning skills. We examined the contributions of students' proportional reasoning skill and example-based practice when learning about probabilities from a reformed seventh grade curriculum. Teachers in their regular classrooms were randomly assigned to instruct with a reformed textbook (control) or a version revised to incorporate correct and incorrect example problems with prompts to explain (treatment). Students' prior knowledge in proportional reasoning skill separately predicted probabilistic knowledge at posttest, regardless of their prior knowledge in probability or minority status. Overall, students in the treatment condition improved more in their probabilistic knowledge, if they started with less proportional reasoning skills. Our findings suggest that example-based practice is beneficial for students with less prior knowledge of proportions, likely a key concept for developing probabilistic knowledge.

Within the narrow but convenient framework of a pure Harrodian dynamics, the paper sheds new light on the macroeconomic textbook modelling with normal utilization in the steady state and the problem of Harrodian instability. To this end, it introduces interacting heterogeneity in the firms’ expectations about future demand. Specifically, the individual firms switch randomly between an optimistic and a pessimistic growth rate, where in the Harrodian spirit the transition probabilities vary with the utilization gap. Unlike the original aggregate analysis, this agent-based approach gives rise to the following three features at the macro level: (i) while the positive Harrodian feedback effects are basically maintained, there is also some scope for the steady state to be stable; (ii) persistent non-normal utilization in this state is not only possible but even the rule; and (iii) the paradox of thrift is re-established (the opposite relationship is true) if the steady state is stable (unstable). A calibration of the IS part provides for a reasonable order of magnitude of the investigated effects.

Synchronisation of a voice recording with the corresponding text is a common task in speech and music processing, and is used in many practical applications (automatic subtitling, audio indexing, etc.). A common approach derives a mid-level feature from the audio and finds its alignment to the text by means of maximizing a similarity measure via Dynamic Time Warping (DTW). Recently, a Connectionist Temporal Classification (CTC) approach was proposed that directly emits character probabilities and uses those to find the optimal text-to-voice alignment. While this method yields promising results, the memory complexity of the optimal alignment search remains quadratic in input lengths, limiting its application to relatively short recordings. In this work, we describe how recent improvements brought to the textbook DTW algorithm can be adapted to the CTC context to achieve linear memory complexity. We then detail our overall solution and demonstrate that it can align text to several hours of audio with a mean alignment error of 50 ms for speech, and 120 ms for singing voice, which corresponds to a median alignment error that is below 50 ms for both voice types. Finally, we evaluate its robustness to transcription errors and different languages.

The issue of the journal opens with an article dedicated to the formation of metrology as government regulated activity in France. The article has discussed the historical process of development of metrological activity in France. It was revealed that the history of metrology is considered as an auxiliary historical and ethnographic discipline from a social and philosophical point of view as the evolution of scientific approaches to the definition of individual units of physical quantities and branches of metrology. However, in the scientific literature, the little attention is paid to the process of a development of a centralized institutional metrology system that is the organizational basis for ensuring the uniformity of measurements. The article by Irena Grebtsova and Maryna Kovalska is devoted to the of the development of the source criticism’s knowledge in the Imperial Novorossiya University which was founded in the second half of the XIX century in Odesa. Grounding on a large complex of general scientific methods, and a historical method and source criticism, the authors identified the stages of the formation of source criticism in the process of teaching historical disciplines at the university, what they based on an analysis of the teaching activities of professors and associate professors of the Faculty of History and Philology. In the article, the development of the foundations of source criticism is considered as a complex process, which in Western European and Russian science was the result of the development of the theory and practice of everyday dialogue between scientists and historical sources. This process had a great influence on the advancement of a historical education in university, which was one of the important factors in the formation of source studies as a scientific discipline. The article by Tetiana Malovichko is devoted to the study of what changes the course of the probability theory has undergone from the end of the 19th century to our time based on the analysis of The Theory of Probabilities textbook by Vasyl P. Ermakov published in 1878. The paper contains a comparative analysis of The Probability Theory textbook and modern educational literature. The birth of children after infertility treatment of married couples with the help of assisted reproductive technologies has become a reality after many years of basic research on the physiology of reproductive system, development of oocyte’s in vitro fertilization methods and cultivation of embryos at pre-implantation stages. Given the widespread use of assisted reproductive technologies in modern medical practice and the great interest of society to this problem, the aim of the study authors from the Institute for Problems of Cryobiology and Cryomedicine of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine was to trace the main stages and key events of assisted reproductive technologies in the world and in Ukraine, as well as to highlight the activities of outstanding scientists of domestic and world science who were at the origins of the development of this area. As a result of the work, it has been shown that despite certain ethical and social biases, the discovery of individual predecessor scientists became the basis for the efforts of Robert Edwards and Patrick Steptoe to ensure birth of the world's first child, whose conception occurred outside the mother's body. There are also historical facts and unique photos from our own archive, which confirm the fact of the first successful oocyte in vitro fertilization and the birth of a child after the use of assisted reproductive technologies in Ukraine. In the next article, the authors tried to consider and structure the stages of development and creation of the “Yermak”, the world's first Arctic icebreaker, and analyzed the stages of preparation and the results of its first expeditions to explore the Arctic. Systematic analysis of historical sources and biographical material allowed to separate and comprehensively consider the conditions and prehistory for the development and creation of “Yermak” icebreaker. Also, the authors gave an assessment to the role of Vice Admiral Stepan Osypovych Makarov in those events, and analyzed the role of Sergei Yulyevich Witte, Dmitri Ivanovich Mendeleev and Pyotr Petrovich Semenov-Tian-Shansky in the preparation and implementation of the first Arctic expeditions of the “Yermak”icebreaker. The authors of the following article considered the historical aspects of construction and operation of train ferry routes. The article deals with the analysis and systematization of the data on the historical development of train ferry routes and describes the background for the construction of train ferry routes and their advantages over other combined transport types. It also deals with the basic features of the train ferries operating on the main international train ferry routes. The study is concerned with both sea routes and routes across rivers and lakes. The article shows the role of train ferry routes in the improvement of a national economy, and in the provision of the military defense. An analysis of numerous artefacts of the first third of the 20th century suggests that the production of many varieties of art-and-industrial ceramics developed in Halychyna, in particular architectural ceramic plastics, a variety of functional ceramics, decorative tiles, ceramic tiles, facing tiles, etc. The artistic features of Halychyna art ceramics, the richness of methods for decorating and shaping it, stylistic features, as well as numerous art societies, scientific and professional associations, groups, plants and factories specializing in the production of ceramics reflect the general development of this industry in the first half of the century and represent the prerequisites the emergence of the school of professional ceramics in Halychyna at the beginning of the 20th century. The purpose of the next paper is to analyze the formation and development of scientific and professional schools of art-and-industrial ceramics of Halychyna in the late 19th – early 20th centuries. During the environmental crisis, electric transport (e-transport) is becoming a matter for scientific inquiry, a subject of discussion in politics and among public figures. In the program for developing the municipal services of Ukraine, priorities are given to the development of the infrastructure of ecological transport: trolleybuses, electric buses, electric cars. The increased attention to e-transport on the part of the scientific community, politicians, and the public actualizes the study of its history, development, features of operation, etc. The aim of the next study is to highlight little-known facts of the history of production and operation of MAN trolleybuses in Ukrainian cities, as well as to introduce their technical characteristics into scientific circulation. The types, specific design solutions of the first MAN trolleybus generation and the prerequisites for their appearance in Chernivtsi have been determined. Particular attention has been paid to trolleybuses that were in operation in Germany and other Western European countries from the first half of the 1930s to the early 1950s. The paper traces the stages of operation of the MAN trolleybuses in Chernivtsi, where they worked during 1939–1944 and after the end of the Second World War, they were transferred to Kyiv. After two years of operation in the Ukrainian capital, the trolleybuses entered the routes in Dnipropetrovsk during 1947–1951. The purpose of the article by authors from the State University of Infrastructure and Technologies of Ukraine is to thoroughly analyze unpaved roads of the late 18th – early 19th century, as well as the project of the first wooden trackway as the forerunner of the Bukovyna railways. To achieve this purpose, the authors first reviewed how railways were constructed in the Austrian Empire during 1830s – 1850s. Then, in contrast with the first railway networks that emerged and developed in the Austrian Empire, the authors made an analysis of the condition and characteristics of unpaved roads in Bukovyna. In addition, the authors considered the first attempt to create a wooden trackway as a prototype and predecessor of the Bukovyna railway.

Abstract Background Immunohistochemistry (IHC) remains the gold standard for the diagnosis of pathological diseases. This technique has been supporting pathologists in making precise decisions regarding differential diagnosis and subtyping, and in creating personalized treatment plans. However, the interpretation of IHC results presents challenges in complicated cases. Furthermore, rapidly increasing amounts of IHC data are making it even harder for pathologists to reach to definitive conclusions. Methods We developed ImmunoGenius, a machine-learning-based expert system for the pathologist, to support the diagnosis of tumors of unknown origin. Based on Bayesian theorem, the most probable diagnoses can be drawn by calculating the probabilities of the IHC results in each disease. We prepared IHC profile data of 584 antibodies in 2009 neoplasms based on the relevant textbooks. We developed the reactive native mobile application for iOS and Android platform that can provide 10 most possible differential diagnoses based on the IHC input. Results We trained the software using 562 real case data, validated it with 382 case data, tested it with 164 case data and compared the precision hit rate. Precision hit rate was 78.5, 78.0 and 89.0% in training, validation and test dataset respectively. Which showed no significant difference. The main reason for discordant precision was lack of disease-specific IHC markers and overlapping IHC profiles observed in similar diseases. Conclusion The results of this study showed a potential that the machine-learning algorithm based expert system can support the pathologic diagnosis by providing second opinion on IHC interpretation based on IHC database. Incorporation with contextual data including the clinical and histological findings might be required to elaborate the system in the future.

Barton L. Lipman of Boston University reviews “Theory of Decision under Uncertainty” by Itzhak Gilboa,. The EconLit Abstract of the reviewed work begins “Textbook for a graduate-level class in decision under uncertainty examines the classical axiomatic theories of decision under uncertainty and considers critiques and alternative theories. Discusses motivating examples; free will and determinism; the principle of indifference; relative frequencies; subjective probabilities; a case study; the role of theories; von Neumann-Morgenstern’s theorem; De Finetti’s theorem; Savage’s theorem; the definition of states; a critique of Savage; objectivity and rationality; Anscombe-Aumann’s theory; Choquet expected utility; prospect theory; maxmin expected utility; case-based qualitative beliefs; and frequentism revisited. Gilboa is Professor in the Berglas School of Economics at Tel-Aviv University and Professor in the Department of Economics and Decision Science at HEC Paris. Index.”

Abstract Quantum mechanics has withstood every experimental test thus far. However, it relies on ad-hoc postulates which require experimental verification. Over the past decade there has been a great deal of research testing these postulates, with numerous tests of Born’s rule for determining probabilities and the complex nature of the Hilbert space being carried out. Although these tests are yet to reveal any significant deviation from textbook quantum theory, it remains important to conduct such tests in different configurations and using different quantum states. Here we perform the first such test using coherent states of light in a three-arm interferometer combined with homodyne detection. Our proposed configuration requires additional assumptions, but importantly allows us to use quantum states which exist in a larger Hilbert space compared to previous tests. For testing Born’s rule, we find that the third order interference is bounded to be κ = 0.002 ± 0.004 and for testing whether quantum mechanics is complex or not we find a Peres parameter of F = 1.0000 ± 0.0003 (F = 1 corresponds to the expected complex quantum mechanics). We also design and implement a test of Glauber’s theory of optical coherence.

In the author’s previous medical research reports, he mainly applied physics theories, engineering models, mathematical equations, computer big data analytics and artificial intelligence (AI) techniques, as well as some statistical approaches to explore and interpret various biophysical phenomena. However, the majority of medical research papers he has read thus far are primarily based on statistics. As a result, in this article, he selects some basic statistical tools, such as correlation, variance, p-values, and multiple regression analyses, to study the predicted CVD/Stroke risk probability as the output (dependent variable) by using his medical condition and lifestyle detail scores as inputs (independent variables). Since 1/1/2012, the author has been collecting various data related to his health (~3 million data) which includes 4 categories of medical conditions, obesity, diabetes, hypertension, and hyperlipidemia (m1 through m4), along with 6 categories of lifestyle details, including exercise, water intake, sleep, stress, food, and daily life routines (m6 through m10). However, due to the limitation of his learned knowledge in earlier years, the data from 2012-2013 is incomplete; therefore, the scores in this study for the initial period of 2012-2013 are his best-guessed data based on an incomplete dataset. Previously, he has researched and published a few articles regarding the risks of having CVD/Stroke based on his metabolism index (MI). In this paper, he will compare his previously calculated CVD risks based on the MI method versus the newly calculated CVD risks based on multiple regression analysis methods. In this study, he will not repeat the detailed introduction of the regression analysis in the Method section because it is available in many statistics textbook. It should be noted that in regression analysis, the correlation coefficient R should be > 0.5 or 50% to indicate a strong inter-connectivity and the p-value should be <0.05 to be considered as statistically significant.

ImportanceUnderstanding the learning curve of a new complex surgical technique helps to reduce potential patient harm. Current series on the learning curve of minimally invasive distal pancreatectomy (MIDP) are mostly small, single-center series, thus providing limited data.ObjectiveTo evaluate the length of pooled learning curves of MIDP in experienced centers.Design, Setting, and ParticipantsThis international, multicenter, retrospective cohort study included MIDP procedures performed from January 1, 2006, through June 30, 2019, in 26 European centers from 8 countries that each performed more than 15 distal pancreatectomies annually, with an overall experience exceeding 50 MIDP procedures. Consecutive patients who underwent elective laparoscopic or robotic distal pancreatectomy for all indications were included. Data were analyzed between September 1, 2021, and May 1, 2022.ExposuresThe learning curve for MIDP was estimated by pooling data from all centers.Main Outcomes and MeasuresThe learning curve was assessed for the primary textbook outcome (TBO), which is a composite measure that reflects optimal outcome, and for surgical mastery. Generalized additive models and a 2-piece linear model with a break point were used to estimate the learning curve length of MIDP. Case mix–expected probabilities were plotted and compared with observed outcomes to assess the association of changing case mix with outcomes. The learning curve also was assessed for the secondary outcomes of operation time, intraoperative blood loss, conversion to open rate, and postoperative pancreatic fistula grade B/C.ResultsFrom a total of 2610 MIDP procedures, the learning curve analysis was conducted on 2041 procedures (mean [SD] patient age, 58 [15.3] years; among 2040 with reported sex, 1249 were female [61.2%] and 791 male [38.8%]). The 2-piece model showed an increase and eventually a break point for TBO at 85 procedures (95% CI, 13-157 procedures), with a plateau TBO rate at 70%. The learning-associated loss of TBO rate was estimated at 3.3%. For conversion, a break point was estimated at 40 procedures (95% CI, 11-68 procedures); for operation time, at 56 procedures (95% CI, 35-77 procedures); and for intraoperative blood loss, at 71 procedures (95% CI, 28-114 procedures). For postoperative pancreatic fistula, no break point could be estimated.Conclusion and RelevanceIn experienced international centers, the learning curve length of MIDP for TBO was considerable with 85 procedures. These findings suggest that although learning curves for conversion, operation time, and intraoperative blood loss are completed earlier, extensive experience may be needed to master the learning curve of MIDP.

Since 1/1/2012, the author has been collecting various biomedical and lifestyle of ~3 million data related to his health conditions. This includes the medical categories for 4 chronic diseases of obesity, diabetes, hypertension, and hyperlipidemia (m1 through m4), along with 6 categories of lifestyle details, including exercise, water intake, sleep, stress, food, and daily life routines (m6 through m10). In early 2018, he studied, researched, and published many articles regarding the risks of having CVD/Stroke based on his developed metabolism index (MI) model. In this paper, he will compare the calculated CVD risks based on the MI model through his developed GH-method: math-physical medicine methodology against the recently calculated 3 CVD risk probabilities based on a traditional statistical regression model but using 3 different input datasets. In this article, he will not repeat the detailed introduction of the regression analysis in the Method section because it is available in many statistics textbook. It should be noted that in regression analysis, the correlation coefficient R should be > 0.5 or 50% to indicate a strong inter-connectivity and the p-value should be <0.05 to be considered as statistically significant. The main purpose is to distinguish the degree of influences from “diabetes alone” and “combined 4 chronic diseases” on his risk probability of having an episode of CVD or Stroke during the same time period. Within the category of diabetes alone or HbA1C, he also differentiates the results based on the different time periods of the collected data: one 14-month period along with an 8-year period. In conclusion, his risk of having a CVD/Stroke is highly connected to the combined medical conditions, weight, glucose, blood lipids, blood pressure and heart rate, during the recent 14-month period. However, his risk of having a CVD/Stroke is not strongly related to the main diabetes measuring biomarker of HbA1C during the same period. Of course, any analysis work using various statistical tools must pay attention on the section of the dataset and time period. Within two different time windows, the data distribution pattern and the data variability may differ according to the selected time-window; therefore, the analysis results and conclusions can vary. The above observed two different conclusions based on the same 14-month period is due to the fact that his glucoses have been under stringent control (with an average HbA1C of 6.1%). Therefore, the variance during the 14-months using A1C as the input is a miniscule 0.4% compared to the variance using medical condition as input is an exceptionally high 89%. If we examine the space-domain diagrams closely, using HbA1C as the input, the data results in the scattered map are spread out all over while a straight trend-line has a high difficulty to represent or simulate the majority of his CVD risk data. That is why its variance (R^2) is a mere 0.4%; therefore, the predicted CVD curve using A1C as the input is almost a horizontal line (similar to his A1C curve) and completely out-of-synch with the MI-model calculated CVD risk curve. On the contrary, by using the medical condition as the input, the scattered results are located within a narrow data bend from the lower left corner to the upper right corner, whereas the straight trend-line represents 89% of the total CVD risk data. As a result, the predicted CVD curve using the medical condition as input is almost identical with the MI-model calculated CVD risk curve in the time-domain chart. Furthermore, if he uses his finger A1C from the past 8 years (2014 to 2021), the scattered results are also located within a narrow data bend from the lower left corner to the upper right corner, while the straight trend-line represents 82% of the total CVD risk data. This conclusion is a result of the A1C curve trend which fluctuates and matches his CVD risk waveform from the past 8 years. The findings from this article have demonstrated the importance of selection of both data and time-window which directly influence the final results and conclusions, if we uses statistical methods as our biomedical research tools.