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Articoli di riviste sul tema "Probabilities – Mathematical models"

Autore: Grafiati

Pubblicato: 4 giugno 2021

Ultima modifica: 31 gennaio 2023

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1

Raup, David M. "Mathematical models of cladogenesis." Paleobiology 11, no. 1 (1985): 42–52. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0094837300011386.

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The evolutionary pattern of speciation and extinction in any biologic group may be described by a variety of mathematical models. These models provide a framework for describing the history of taxonomic diversity (clade shape) and other aspects of larger evolutionary patterns. The simplest model assumes time homogeneity: that is, speciation and extinction probabilities are constant through time and within taxonomic groups. In some cases the homogeneous model provides a good fit to real world paleontological data, but in other cases the model serves only as a null hypothesis that must be reject

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2

Bronevich, A. G., and I. N. Rosenberg. "Applying models of imprecise probabilities in the mathematical theory of criteria importance." Automation and Remote Control 78, no. 8 (August 2017): 1460–73. http://dx.doi.org/10.1134/s0005117917080070.

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3

Lomeli, Luis Martinez, Abdon Iniguez, Prasanthi Tata, Nilamani Jena, Zhong-Ying Liu, Richard Van Etten, Arthur D. Lander, Babak Shahbaba, John S. Lowengrub, and Vladimir N. Minin. "Optimal experimental design for mathematical models of haematopoiesis." Journal of The Royal Society Interface 18, no. 174 (January 2021): 20200729. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2020.0729.

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The haematopoietic system has a highly regulated and complex structure in which cells are organized to successfully create and maintain new blood cells. It is known that feedback regulation is crucial to tightly control this system, but the specific mechanisms by which control is exerted are not completely understood. In this work, we aim to uncover the underlying mechanisms in haematopoiesis by conducting perturbation experiments, where animal subjects are exposed to an external agent in order to observe the system response and evolution. We have developed a novel Bayesian hierarchical framew

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4

Loucopoulos, Constantine. "Effect of prior probabilities on the classificatory performance of parametric and mathematical programming approaches to the two-group discriminant problem." Journal of Applied Mathematics and Decision Sciences 1, no. 1 (January 1, 1997): 45–51. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/s1173912697000047.

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A mixed-integer programming model (MIP) incorporating prior probabilities for the two-group discriminant problem is presented. Its classificatory performance is compared against that of Fisher's linear discrimininant function (LDF) and Smith's quadradic discriminant function (QDF) for simulated data from normal and nonnormal populations for different settings of the prior probabilities of group membership. The proposed model is shown to outperform both LDF and QDF for most settings of the prior probabilities when the data are generated from nonnormal populations but underperforms the parametri

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Forrester, P. J., and G. E. Andrews. "Height probabilities in solid-on-solid models. II." Journal of Physics A: Mathematical and General 20, no. 13 (September 11, 1987): 4465–81. http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/0305-4470/20/13/046.

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Forrester, P. J., and G. E. Andrews. "Height probabilities in solid-on-solid models. I." Journal of Physics A: Mathematical and General 19, no. 15 (October 21, 1986): L923—L926. http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/0305-4470/19/15/011.

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7

Zhao, Ming-Jie, and Herbert Jaeger. "Norm-Observable Operator Models." Neural Computation 22, no. 7 (July 2010): 1927–59. http://dx.doi.org/10.1162/neco.2010.03-09-983.

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Hidden Markov models (HMMs) are one of the most popular and successful statistical models for time series. Observable operator models (OOMs) are generalizations of HMMs that exhibit several attractive advantages. In particular, a variety of highly efficient, constructive, and asymptotically correct learning algorithms are available for OOMs. However, the OOM theory suffers from the negative probability problem (NPP): a given, learned OOM may sometimes predict negative probabilities for certain events. It was recently shown that it is undecidable whether a given OOM will eventually produce such

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8

PYKACZ, JAROSŁAW, and BART D'HOOGHE. "BELL-TYPE INEQUALITIES IN FUZZY PROBABILITY CALCULUS." International Journal of Uncertainty, Fuzziness and Knowledge-Based Systems 09, no. 02 (April 2001): 263–75. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s021848850100079x.

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Bell-type inequalities, used in mathematical physics as a criterion to check whether a physical situation allows description in terms of classical (Kolmogorovian) or quantum probability calculus are applied to various fuzzy probability models. It occurs that the standard set of Bell-type inequalities does not allow to distinguish Kolmogorovian probabilities from fuzzy probabilities based on the most frequently used Zadeh intersection or probabilistic intersection, but it allows to distinguish all these models from fuzzy probability models based on Giles (Łukasiewicz) intersection. It is proved

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9

Raza, Ahmed, and Vladimir Ulansky. "Optimization of Condition Monitoring Decision Making by the Criterion of Minimum Entropy." Entropy 21, no. 12 (December 4, 2019): 1193. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/e21121193.

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Condition-based maintenance (CBM) is a promising technique for a wide variety of deteriorating systems. Condition-based maintenance’s effectiveness largely depends on the quality of condition monitoring. The majority of CBM mathematical models consider perfect inspections, in which the system condition is assumed to be determined error-free. This article presents a mathematical model of CBM with imperfect condition monitoring conducted at discrete times. Mathematical expressions were derived for evaluating the probabilities of correct and incorrect decisions when monitoring the system conditio

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10

Neustroev, S. S., V. I. Serdyukov, N. A. Serdyukova, and S. I. Shishkina. "Mathematical Modeling-based Analysis from the Great Patriotic War Events." Mathematics and Mathematical Modeling, no. 3 (August 25, 2019): 25–35. http://dx.doi.org/10.24108/mathm.0319.0000189.

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When fighting against terrorism in modern armed conflicts, combat vehicles, including tanks, are widely used. To minimise own losses of vehicles and personnel for overthrowing enemy is a relevant task. To solve it, the paper considers certain events in the history of the Great Patriotic War, which are associated with battle of tanks that spring an ambush. A mathematical model of the battle is built. The state graph of the system is given. Using this graph, a probability of tank kills and a ratio of mathematical expectations of losses have been calculated. This mathematical model generalizes th

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11

Kimmel, M., and D. E. Axelrod. "Mathematical models of gene amplification with applications to cellular drug resistance and tumorigenicity." Genetics 125, no. 3 (July 1, 1990): 633–44. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/genetics/125.3.633.

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Abstract An increased number of copies of specific genes may offer an advantage to cells when they grow in restrictive conditions such as in the presence of toxic drugs, or in a tumor. Three mathematical models of gene amplification and deamplification are proposed to describe the kinetics of unstable phenotypes of cells with amplified genes. The models differ in details but all assume probabilistic mechanisms of increase and decrease in gene copy number per cell (gene amplification/deamplification). Analysis of the models indicates that a stable distribution of numbers of copies of genes per

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12

Joseph, Dominic. "Estimating credit default probabilities using stochastic optimisation." Data Science in Finance and Economics 1, no. 3 (2021): 253–71. http://dx.doi.org/10.3934/dsfe.2021014.

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<abstract> <p>Banks and financial institutions all over the world manage portfolios containing tens of thousands of customers. Not all customers are high credit-worthy, and many possess varying degrees of risk to the Bank or financial institutions that lend money to these customers. Hence assessment of default risk that is calibrated and reflective of actual credit risk is paramount in the field of credit risk management. This paper provides a detailed mathematical framework using the concepts of Binomial distribution and stochastic optimisation, in order to estimate the Probabilit

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Efimov, Stefan, Sergey Bokarev, and Sergey Pribytkov. "Durability of operated reinforced concrete superstructures of railroad bridges." MATEC Web of Conferences 216 (2018): 01005. http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/matecconf/201821601005.

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The paper describes method to evaluate residual service life of reinforced concrete structures of railroad bridges, enabling to consider the presence of defects, operation history, and climatic factor to calculate probabilities of the structural state at any given moment of time. The model based on semi-Markov process was used to predict the state and calculate reliability indicators of structures and their elements. The data sources for reliability models are results of observations of the structural state, mathematical models of occurrence and development of defects. The example of determini

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14

Teufel, Ashley, Andrew Ritchie, Claus Wilke, and David Liberles. "Using the Mutation-Selection Framework to Characterize Selection on Protein Sequences." Genes 9, no. 8 (August 13, 2018): 409. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/genes9080409.

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When mutational pressure is weak, the generative process of protein evolution involves explicit probabilities of mutations of different types coupled to their conditional probabilities of fixation dependent on selection. Establishing this mechanistic modeling framework for the detection of selection has been a goal in the field of molecular evolution. Building on a mathematical framework proposed more than a decade ago, numerous methods have been introduced in an attempt to detect and measure selection on protein sequences. In this review, we discuss the structure of the original model, subseq

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Raza, Ahmed, and Vladimir Ulansky. "Optimal Preventive Maintenance of Wind Turbine Components with Imperfect Continuous Condition Monitoring." Energies 12, no. 19 (October 8, 2019): 3801. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/en12193801.

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Among the different maintenance techniques applied to wind turbine (WT) components, online condition monitoring is probably the most promising technique. The maintenance models based on online condition monitoring have been examined in many studies. However, no study has considered preventive maintenance models with incorporated probabilities of correct and incorrect decisions made during continuous condition monitoring. This article presents a mathematical model of preventive maintenance, with imperfect continuous condition monitoring of the WT components. For the first time, the article intr

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16

Baranov, V. V. "Models and methods for assessing the security of an informatization object." Herald of the Siberian State University of Telecommunications and Informatics, no. 3 (October 1, 2022): 14–28. http://dx.doi.org/10.55648/1998-6920-2022-16-3-14-28.

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The paper substantiates the need of creation an information decision support system in the development of systems for protecting informatization objects. Analyzes of existing systems in various fields of activity, the requirements for the functionality of the system in relation to the field of information protection, methods for developing models of functioning of protected information systems in a destructive environment impact on the basis of Bayesian networks are considered. The paper gives a description of a typical module functioning of this model. The structures of probabilistic models o

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Gamboa, Maria, and Maria Lopez-Herrero. "On the Number of Periodic Inspections During Outbreaks of Discrete-Time Stochastic SIS Epidemic Models." Mathematics 6, no. 8 (July 24, 2018): 128. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/math6080128.

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This paper deals with an infective process of type SIS, taking place in a closed population of moderate size that is inspected periodically. Our aim is to study the number of inspections that find the epidemic process still in progress. As the underlying mathematical model involves a discrete time Markov chain (DTMC) with a single absorbing state, the number of inspections in an outbreak is a first-passage time into this absorbing state. Cumulative probabilities are numerically determined from a recursive algorithm and expected values came from explicit expressions.

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18

Donati, Luca, Marcus Weber, and Bettina G. Keller. "A review of Girsanov reweighting and of square root approximation for building molecular Markov state models." Journal of Mathematical Physics 63, no. 12 (December 1, 2022): 123306. http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/5.0127227.

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Dynamical reweighting methods permit to estimate kinetic observables of a stochastic process governed by a target potential [Formula: see text] from trajectories that have been generated at a different potential V( x). In this article, we present Girsanov reweighting and square root approximation: the first method reweights path probabilities exploiting the Girsanov theorem and can be applied to Markov state models to reweight transition probabilities; the second method was originally developed to discretize the Fokker–Planck operator into a transition rate matrix, but here we implement it int

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19

FENG, ZHILAN, and JOHN W. GLASSER. "ESTIMATING AGE-SPECIFIC HAZARD RATES OF INFECTION FROM CROSS-SECTIONAL OBSERVATIONS." Revista de Matemática: Teoría y Aplicaciones 27, no. 1 (December 5, 2019): 123–40. http://dx.doi.org/10.15517/rmta.v27i1.39952.

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Mathematical models of pathogen transmission in age-structured host populations, can be used to design or evaluate vaccination programs. For reliable results, their forces or hazard rates of infection (FOI) must be formulated correctly and the requisite contact rates and probabilities of infection on contact estimated from suitable observations. Elsewhere, we have described methods for calculating the probabilities of infection on contact from the contact rates and FOI. Here, we present methods for estimating the FOI from cross-sectional serological surveys or disease surveillance in populatio

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de Cooman, Gert, Filip Hermans, and Erik Quaeghebeur. "IMPRECISE MARKOV CHAINS AND THEIR LIMIT BEHAVIOR." Probability in the Engineering and Informational Sciences 23, no. 4 (August 4, 2009): 597–635. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0269964809990039.

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When the initial and transition probabilities of a finite Markov chain in discrete time are not well known, we should perform a sensitivity analysis. This can be done by considering as basic uncertainty models the so-calledcredal setsthat these probabilities are known or believed to belong to and by allowing the probabilities to vary over such sets. This leads to the definition of animprecise Markov chain. We show that the time evolution of such a system can be studied very efficiently using so-calledlowerandupper expectations, which are equivalent mathematical representations of credal sets.

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Kuniba, A., and T. Yajima. "Local state probabilities for an infinite sequence of solvable lattice models." Journal of Physics A: Mathematical and General 21, no. 2 (January 21, 1988): 519–27. http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/0305-4470/21/2/029.

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22

Romansky, Radi. "Mathematical Model Investigation of a Technological Structure for Personal Data Protection." Axioms 12, no. 2 (January 18, 2023): 102. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/axioms12020102.

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The contemporary digital age is characterized by the massive use of different information technologies and services in the cloud. This raises the following question: “Are personal data processed correctly in global environments?” It is known that there are many requirements that the Data Controller must perform. For this reason, this article presents a point of view for transferring some activities for personal data processing from a traditional system to a cloud environment. The main goal is to investigate the differences between the two versions of data processing. To achieve this goal, a pr

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Grana, Dario. "Bayesian petroelastic inversion with multiple prior models." GEOPHYSICS 85, no. 5 (June 26, 2020): M57—M71. http://dx.doi.org/10.1190/geo2019-0625.1.

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Bayesian methods are commonly used for geophysical inverse problems, such as seismic and rock-physics inversion, for the prediction of petroelastic properties. Bayesian inversion is based on Bayes’ theorem and combines the information from a prior distribution and a likelihood function; in geophysical applications, the prior model generally includes the available geologic information about the model variables, whereas the likelihood includes the geophysical models that link the model to the data. The goal of Bayesian inversion is to estimate the posterior distribution of the model variables co

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Yuan, Linglong. "Kingman’s Model with Random Mutation Probabilities: Convergence and Condensation II." Journal of Statistical Physics 181, no. 3 (July 9, 2020): 870–96. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10955-020-02609-w.

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Abstract A generalisation of Kingman’s model of selection and mutation has been made in a previous paper which assumes all mutation probabilities to be i.i.d.. The weak convergence of fitness distributions to a globally stable equilibrium was proved. The condensation occurs if almost surely a positive proportion of the population travels to and condensates on the largest fitness value due to the dominance of selection over mutation. A criterion of condensation was given which relies on the equilibrium whose explicit expression is however unknown. This paper tackles these problems based on the

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Goldberg, Kenneth P. "Applications: Using Technology to Understand the Jury Decision-making Process." Mathematics Teacher 87, no. 2 (February 1994): 110–14. http://dx.doi.org/10.5951/mt.87.2.0110.

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Two of the recommendations of the Curriculum and Evaluation Standards for School Mathematics (NCTM 1989) are to use technology to enhance teaching and learning mathematics and to relate school mathematics to the world in which the students Jive through developing and interpreting mathematical models. This article demonstrates how computer or graphing-calculator technology can be used to help students develop and interpret three increasingly realistic models of jwy behavior and explore the potential effect of such decisions as changing jury size. The only mathematics required is an understandin

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Andriyanov, Nikita A., Madina-Bonu R. Atakhodzhaeva, and Evgeny I. Borodin. "Mathematical modeling of recommender system and data processing of a telecommunications company using machine learning models." Bulletin of the South Ural State University. Ser. Computer Technologies, Automatic Control & Radioelectronics 22, no. 2 (April 2022): 17–28. http://dx.doi.org/10.14529/ctcr220202.

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The purpose of the study is to develop data modeling methods for projecting recommender algorithms using doubly stochastic autoregressive models of random processes and checking their adequacy by applying machine learning algorithms to cluster users in a simulated data set and predict probabilities of interest. Research methods. The article discusses the methods used in the construction of recommender systems. At the same time, the problem of modeling user behavior using a doubly stochastic model is considered. This model is proposed for generating artificial data. The doubly stochastic model

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Kharin, Alexey Yu. "Statistical sequential hypotheses testing on para meters of probability distributions of random binary data." Journal of the Belarusian State University. Mathematics and Informatics, no. 2 (August 5, 2021): 60–66. http://dx.doi.org/10.33581/2520-6508-2021-2-60-66.

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An important mathematical problem of computer data analysis – the problem of statistical sequential testing of simple hypotheses on parameters of probability distributions of observed binary data – is considered in the paper. This problem is being solved for two models of observation: for independent observations and for homogeneous Markov chains. Explicit expressions of the sequential tests statistics are derived, transparent for interpretation and convenient for computer realisation. An approach is developed to calculate the performance characteristics – error probabilities and mathematical

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Аврашков, Lyev Avrashkov, Графова, Galina Grafova, Графов, Andrey Grafov, Шахватова, and S. Shakhvatova. "Criteria and Figures of Bankruptcy Predictive Modeling by the Implementation of Business Activities." Auditor 3, no. 5 (May 31, 2017): 38–44. http://dx.doi.org/10.12737/article_5922aefea074c5.29816973.

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Th e article considers a number of economic-mathematical models on the basis of which probabilities of bankruptcy of the enterprises of various branches can be predicted. Information base for calculation of the fi nancial and economic indicators refl ecting a state and results of economic activity of the enterprise is presented in detail. It is noted that results of calculation of criterion of bankruptcies is for the management of the enterprise of a signal of the early prevention of bankruptcy.

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Kirakosyan, Zara, David B. Saakian, and Chin-Kun Hu. "Finite Genome Length Corrections for the Mean Fitness and Gene Probabilities in Evolution Models." Journal of Statistical Physics 144, no. 1 (July 2011): 198–212. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10955-011-0254-3.

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Kizilova, N. M., and N. L. Rychak. "Probabilistic models of water resources management on urbanized areas." Bulletin of Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv. Series: Physics and Mathematics, no. 4 (2020): 22–27. http://dx.doi.org/10.17721/1812-5409.2020/4.3.

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Gradual global climate change poses new challenges to the mathematical sciences, which are related to forecasting of meteorological conditions, preparing the infrastructure for possible rains, storms, droughts, and other climatic disasters. One of the most common approaches is synthetic regression-probability models, which use the spatio-temporal probability density functions of precipitation level. This approach is applied to the statistics of precipitation in the Kharkiv region, which shows the tendency to a gradual increase in air temperature, high indices of basic water stress, indices of

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Qiu, Ruozhen, and Yizhi Wang. "Supply Chain Network Design under Demand Uncertainty and Supply Disruptions: A Distributionally Robust Optimization Approach." Scientific Programming 2016 (2016): 1–15. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2016/3848520.

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We develop a robust optimization model for designing a three-echelon supply chain network that consists of manufacturers, distribution centers, and retailers under both demand uncertainty and supply disruptions. The market demands are assumed to be random variables with known distribution and the supply disruptions caused by some of the facilities faults or connection links interruptions are formulated by several scenarios with unknown occurrence probabilities. In particular, we assume the probabilities that the disruption scenarios happen belong to the two predefined uncertainty sets, named b

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Kern, Patrick, Axel Simroth, and Henryk Zähle. "First-order sensitivity of the optimal value in a Markov decision model with respect to deviations in the transition probability function." Mathematical Methods of Operations Research 92, no. 1 (March 2, 2020): 165–97. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00186-020-00706-w.

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Abstract Markov decision models (MDM) used in practical applications are most often less complex than the underlying ‘true’ MDM. The reduction of model complexity is performed for several reasons. However, it is obviously of interest to know what kind of model reduction is reasonable (in regard to the optimal value) and what kind is not. In this article we propose a way how to address this question. We introduce a sort of derivative of the optimal value as a function of the transition probabilities, which can be used to measure the (first-order) sensitivity of the optimal value w.r.t. changes

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CHAYES, L., and H. K. LEI. "CARDY'S FORMULA FOR CERTAIN MODELS OF THE BOND-TRIANGULAR TYPE." Reviews in Mathematical Physics 19, no. 05 (June 2007): 511–65. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s0129055x0700305x.

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We introduce and study a family of 2D percolation systems which are based on the bond percolation model of the triangular lattice. The system under study has local correlations, however, bonds separated by a few lattice spacings act independently of one another. By avoiding explicit use of microscopic paths, it is first established that the model possesses the typical attributes which are indicative of critical behavior in 2D percolation problems. Subsequently, the so-called Cardy–Carleson functions are demonstrated to satisfy, in the continuum limit, Cardy's formula for crossing probabilities

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Rykov, Vladimir V., Mikhail G. Sukharev, and Victor Yu Itkin. "Investigations of the Potential Application of k-out-of-n Systems in Oil and Gas Industry Objects." Journal of Marine Science and Engineering 8, no. 11 (November 16, 2020): 928. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/jmse8110928.

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The purpose of this paper was to demonstrate the possibilities of assessing the reliability of oil and gas industry structures with the help of mathematical models of k-out-of-n systems. We show how the reliability of various structures in the oil and gas complex can be described and investigated using k-out-of-n models. Because the initial information about the life and repair time of components of systems is only usually known on the scale of one and/or two moments, we focus on the problem of the sensitivity analysis of the system reliability indices to the shape of its components repair tim

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Martinec, Tomislav, Stanko Škec, Fanika Lukačević, and Mario Štorga. "MODELLING PROPORTIONS AND SEQUENCES OF OPERATIONS IN TEAM DESIGN ACTIVITIES." Proceedings of the Design Society 1 (July 27, 2021): 2187–96. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/pds.2021.480.

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AbstractThe presented research aims at modelling and formalising the process of team design activity as an interplay between the evolution of design problems and solutions. The motivation founds primarily on a presumption that there exist regularities in designing which can be captured and formalised using the appropriate models. The study thus investigates whether the identified design operation proportions and sequence probabilities are consistent throughout the different parts of team conceptual design activities. It does so by exploring the utility of mathematical models built based on the

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Zatserkovnyi, V., L. Plichko, and M. Bohoslavskyi. "ANALYSIS OF THE APPROACHES TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE MATHEMATICAL MODEL FOR THE MONITORING OF NATURAL AND ANTHROPOGENIC SYSTEMS ON THE BASIS OF DETERMINATION OF GRADUAL FAILURES PROBABILITY." Visnyk of Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv. Geology, no. 2 (85) (2019): 86–91. http://dx.doi.org/10.17721/1728-2713.85.12.

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The approaches for creating a mathematical model for monitoring natural and technogenic systems (PTS) and emergency situations (ES) based on the probability of gradual failures are outlined. The monitoring of the NAS and ES provides for comprehensive monitoring of changes in the natural and anthropogenic environment and its components. The complexity of this process is determined mainly by the complexity of the diagnostics of the monitoring objects and the precise measurement of a large number of indicators that determine the conditions and factors of the state of the NAS, environmental pollut

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TSOULARIS, A., and J. WALLACE. "A MARKOV CHAIN MODEL OF PREDATOR-MODEL-MIMIC INTERACTIONS." Journal of Biological Systems 13, no. 03 (September 2005): 273–86. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s0218339005001483.

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The population dynamics for predator and prey environments have been studied extensively, and several major mathematical models have been introduced to quantify this. The situation becomes more complex, however, when the prey incorporates preservation strategies for survival. One of the most interesting approaches here is the use of mimicry of prey which are unacceptable to the predator, to avoid being consumed. Here we develop a Markov chain model of interactions between a predator and a prey population comprising unpalatable models, general mimics and specific mimics. This incorporates a sim

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LEE, SOOMIN, HEEYOUNG LEE, JOO-YEON LEE, PANAGIOTIS SKANDAMIS, BEOM-YOUNG PARK, MI-HWA OH, and YOHAN YOON. "Mathematical Models To Predict Kinetic Behavior and Growth Probabilities of Listeria monocytogenes on Pork Skin at Constant and Dynamic Temperatures." Journal of Food Protection 76, no. 11 (November 1, 2013): 1868–72. http://dx.doi.org/10.4315/0362-028x.jfp-13-197.

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In this study, mathematical models were developed to predict the growth probability and kinetic behavior of Listeria monocytogenes on fresh pork skin during storage at different temperatures. A 10-strain mixture of L. monocytogenes was inoculated on fresh pork skin (3 by 5 cm) at 4 log CFU/cm2. The inoculated samples were stored aerobically at 4, 7, and 10°C for 240 h, at 15 and 20°C for 96 h, and at 25 and 30°C for 12 h. The Baranyi model was fitted to L. monocytogenes growth data on PALCAM agar to calculate the maximum specific growth rate, lag-phase duration, the lower asymptote, and the up

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Boiko, Evgueny, Igor Polikarpov, Aleksey Bobrov, Sergey Sizintsov, Valeriy Volnev, and Pavel Shishmarev. "A digital solution for risk-oriented management of thermal power plant process equipment condition." Energy Safety and Energy Economy 5 (November 2020): 42–54. http://dx.doi.org/10.18635/2071-2219-2020-5-42-54.

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According to digital engineering, an intelligent digital infrastructure is intended to optimize performance of thermal power plants. This paper presents an intelligent digital approach to power facility management. As an example, Siberian Generating Company thermal power plants were considered. The authors have developed specialized software able to control and predict thermal power plant process equipment conditions comparing monitoring data and failure probabilities with appropriate mathematical models. Based on a life-cycle monitoring model, a management methodology was created to be applie

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Deyme, Laure, Marine Gilabert, Laurent Mineur, Clemence Toullec, Mohamed Gasmi, Joseph Ciccolini, Dominique Barbolosi, and Florence Gattacceca. "A PK/PD mathematical model to forecast severe toxicities in pancreatic cancer patients treated with FOLFIRINOX regimen." Journal of Clinical Oncology 38, no. 15_suppl (May 20, 2020): e16774-e16774. http://dx.doi.org/10.1200/jco.2020.38.15_suppl.e16774.

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e16774 Background: FOLFIRINOX regimen is the most efficient treatment in pancreatic adenocarcinoma. However, this triple-therapy causes significant and dose-limiting toxic effects leading to empirical dose-reduction, postponement of the forthcoming courses and sometimes treatment discontinuation. Dose-limiting toxicities with FOLFIRINOX are mostly oxaliplatin-induced peripheral neuropathy (OIPN) and irinotecan-induced diarrhoea (IID). The first aim of our study was to establish dose-concentration-toxicity relationships for these two main ordinal toxicities. Second, we aimed to perform in silic

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Andriushchenko, Kateryna, Anastasiia Liezina, Vitalii Lavruk, Liudmyla Sliusareva, and Viktoriia Rudevska. "Intelligent enterprise capital control based on Markov chain." Acta Innovations, no. 45 (July 4, 2022): 18–30. http://dx.doi.org/10.32933/actainnovations.45.2.

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This scientific work is devoted to the processes of creating technologies, as well as the use of their mathematical representation in the form of models in the context of the formation and development of the intellectual capital of an enterprise. To select a goal, a vision was formed to prove or refute any possibility of using Markov's theory in practice, namely the creation of a stochastic model of the intellectual capital of an enterprise in monetary terms, which manifests itself in investments in intangible assets. As an initial model hypothesis, the statement is accepted that investments i

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Rămescu, Doriana Andreea, Nicoleta Sîrghi, and Mihaela Neamțu. "DYNAMIC ANALYSIS OF THE COOPERATION AND COMPETITION RELATIONSHIP IN THE OIL AND GAS INDUSTRY IN ROMANIA." Oradea Journal of Business and Economics 4, no. 2 (September 2019): 16–25. http://dx.doi.org/10.47535/1991ojbe074.

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The aim of the paper is to analyse the cooperation and competition relationship in the oil and gas industry in Romania using the game theory. The players are the companies, the payoffs are the profits obtained by the entities and there are two strategies as cooperation and competition. Two cases are considered: duopolistic and triopolistic market. The mathematical models have as variables the probabilities of choosing cooperation and competition by each player. They are described by two and three nonlinear differential equations. The time delay is introduced in order to highlight the time betw

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Lambert, M. F., J. P. Whiting, and A. V. Metcalfe. "A non-parametric hidden Markov model for climate state identification." Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 7, no. 5 (October 31, 2003): 652–67. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hess-7-652-2003.

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Abstract. Hidden Markov models (HMMs) can allow for the varying wet and dry cycles in the climate without the need to simulate supplementary climate variables. The fitting of a parametric HMM relies upon assumptions for the state conditional distributions. It is shown that inappropriate assumptions about state conditional distributions can lead to biased estimates of state transition probabilities. An alternative non-parametric model with a hidden state structure that overcomes this problem is described. It is shown that a two-state non-parametric model produces accurate estimates of both tran

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Raskin, Lev, Oksana Sira, Larysa Sukhomlyn, and Roman Korsun. "DEVELOPMENT OF A MODEL FOR THE DYNAMICS OF PROBABILITIES OF STATES OF SEMI-MARKOV SYSTEMS." Innovative Technologies and Scientific Solutions for Industries, no. 3 (17) (October 20, 2021): 62–68. http://dx.doi.org/10.30837/itssi.2021.17.062.

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The subject is the study of the dynamics of probability distribution of the states of the semi-Markov system during the transition process before establishing a stationary distribution. The goal is to develop a technology for finding analytical relationships that describe the dynamics of the probabilities of states of a semi-Markov system. The task is to develop a mathematical model that adequately describes the dynamics of the probabilities of the states of the system. The initial data for solving the problem is a matrix of conditional distribution laws of the random duration of the system's

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Khrennikov, Andrei. "Bell Could Become the Copernicus of Probability." Open Systems & Information Dynamics 23, no. 02 (June 2016): 1650008. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s1230161216500086.

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Our aim is to emphasize the role of mathematical models in physics, especially models of geometry and probability. We briefly compare developments of geometry and probability by pointing to similarities and differences: from Euclid to Lobachevsky and from Kolmogorov to Bell. In probability, Bell could play the same role as Lobachevsky in geometry. In fact, violation of Bell’s inequality can be treated as implying the impossibility to apply the classical probability model of Kolmogorov (1933) to quantum phenomena. Thus the quantum probabilistic model (based on Born’s rule) can be considered as

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Ramírez-López, Adán, Omar Dávila-Maldonado, Alfonso Nájera-Bastida, Rodolfo Dávila Morales, Carlos Rodrigo Muñiz-Valdés, and Jafeth Rodríguez-Ávila. "Computer Modeling of Grain Structure Formation during Quenching including Algorithms with Pre- and Post-Solidification." Metals 12, no. 4 (April 4, 2022): 623. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/met12040623.

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Simulation of the grain growth process, as a function of steel heat transfer conditions, is helpful for predicting grain structures of continuous cast steel products. Many authors have developed models based on numerical methods to simulate grain growth during metal solidification. Nevertheless, the anisotropic nature of grain structures makes necessary the employment of new mathematical methods such as chaos theory, fractals, and probabilistic and stochastic theories of simulation. The problem is significant for steelmakers to avoid defects in products and to control the steel microstructure

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Ullah, Khalil, and Muhammad Aslam. "Bayesian Analysis of the Weibull Paired Comparison Model Using Numerical Approximation." Journal of Mathematics 2020 (December 14, 2020): 1–6. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2020/6628379.

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The method of paired comparisons (PC) is widely used to rank items using sensory evaluations. The PC models are developed to provide basis for such comparisons. In this study, the Weibull PC model is analyzed under the Bayesian paradigm using noninformative priors and different loss functions, namely, Squared Error Loss Function (SELF), Quadratic Loss Function (QLF), DeGroot Loss Function (DLF), and Precautionary Loss Function (PLF). Numerical approximation is used to illustrate the entire estimation procedure. A real dataset showing usage preferences for different cellphone brands, Huawei (HW

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Solodov, A. A. "Markov model of representation of sensual images for the formation of the model of the outside world." Statistics and Economics 15, no. 5 (November 13, 2018): 81–88. http://dx.doi.org/10.21686/2500-3925-2018-5-81-88.

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The aim of the studyis a probabilistic description of the functioning of the cognitive system, taking into account its internal logic and interaction with the external environment.Such concepts of cognitive theory as sensory imaginative representations, models, systems are the most common, so the attempt to formalize them is by obtaining the most common results. One of the key concepts of cognitive theory is Gestalt, which is understood in this work as a kind of holistic perception of the sensual image, as well as the sensual image. Formalization (mathematical description) of Gestalt, as well

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Chigarev, Anatoliy V., Michael A. Zhuravkov, and Vitaliy A. Chigarev. "Deterministic and stochastic models of infection spread and testing in an isolated contingent." Journal of the Belarusian State University. Mathematics and Informatics, no. 3 (November 19, 2021): 57–67. http://dx.doi.org/10.33581/2520-6508-2021-3-57-67.

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The mathematical SIR model generalisation for description of the infectious process dynamics development by adding a testing model is considered. The proposed procedure requires the expansion of states’ space dimension due to variables that cannot be measured directly, but allow you to more adequately describe the processes that occur in real situations. Further generalisation of the SIR model is considered by taking into account randomness in state estimates, forecasting, which is achieved by applying the stochastic differential equations methods associated with the application of the Fokker

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Gaver, Donald P., and Patricia A. Jacobs. "Performing Counter-High Energy Laser Evasive Tactics." International Journal of Operations Research and Information Systems 4, no. 3 (July 2013): 47–60. http://dx.doi.org/10.4018/joris.2013070104.

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The purpose of this article is to present several physics-based mathematical probabilistic models for Counter Directed Energy Weapon operational planning. The scenario analyzed is that of a surge of friendly Blue aircraft closing on a single High Energy Laser. The surge is a mixture of Blue active platforms, and Blue low-value decoys. Blue is targetable for a finite time. Blue response/measures of effectiveness quantify the survivability of Blue Actives. Red response is the number of Blues killed. Red defense tactics trade off longer engagement times, resulting in higher probabilities of kill,

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