Tesi sul tema "Population ageing"

The majority of local areas in the UK are faced with an ageing population. Popular retirement destinations in coastal and more rural areas are particularly affected. The thesis aims to find out how local areas strategically tackle these demographic shifts. The British government has issued strategic guidance for local areas, but as yet little is known about how actual responses look. The literature has largely focused on good practice compilations. Consequently, the thesis attempts to analyse in depth local areas’ experiences in planning for an ageing population. The main research question is: How do local actors in the UK plan for population ageing? A grounded theory approach has been chosen to develop theoretical concepts from empirical data. Local governance and collective learning are used as sensitising concepts, i.e. wider theoretical perspectives. Due to the state of research and the aim to gather detailed knowledge regarding the planning for an ageing population in local areas, a qualitative research design has been chosen. More precisely, it is a multiple case study design, covering the three heterogeneous cases North Tyneside, Poole and Wealden. Empirical data has been assembled from qualitative interviews with local experts and documents such as local strategies or minutes of meetings. The results are threefold. Firstly, local governance arrangements are analysed. This covers the identification of involved actors, their action orientations and interactions. As approaches in planning for an ageing population differ across organisations, a typology of individual actors is developed. Moreover, it is observed that and analysed how traditional hierarchical steering by public bodies is complemented by more network-like forms of governance, for example multi-organisational older people’s partnerships. Secondly, local learning processes in planning for an ageing population are reconstructed. Four phases are differentiated: setting the agenda for the topic of ageing and older people followed by building up knowledge on the subject and collective learning in a narrower sense and, finally, strategy-making. Interrelations between governance arrangements and collective learning are analysed, particularly with respect to different forms of learning in different types of older people’s partnerships. Finally, central challenges and perspectives arising from the analysis of governance arrangements and learning processes are discussed. On the one hand, these pertain to the cross-cutting nature of ageing, on the other hand they are due to the ambivalent influence from national government on local areas. Ageing affects various spheres of local steering activity. Among the main implications for local areas in the UK are the continuous search for responsibility and the struggle to broaden the agenda beyond health and care. This has led to experimenting with governance structures, intensifying involvement of older people and developing inter-agency older people strategies and others as catalysts for further development. The strong influence from central government on local steering advances local reactions to ageing but provokes superficial and unsustainable answers at the same time. Overall, the thesis provides in-depth empirical knowledge on local planning for an ageing population. The theoretical lenses local governance and collective learning have been used to generalise from the practical experiences in the three case study areas. The thesis concludes with recommendations for practitioners locally and at the national level. These refer inter alia to local governance arrangements which come up to the issue’s cross-cuttingness and to national guidance and regulation which could facilitate their introduction or modification
Die Mehrzahl britischer Gemeinden ist mit einer alternden Bevölkerung konfrontiert. Küstengebiete und ländliche Räume sind besonders betroffen, da sie als Altersruhesitz bevorzugt werden. Ziel der Dissertation ist es, den strategischen Umgang der Gemeinden mit diesen demographischen Veränderungen zu beleuchten. Die britische Nationalregierung gibt den Gemeinden strategische Leitlinien vor, allerdings ist wenig darüber bekannt, wie die lokalen Ansätze tatsächlich aussehen. Bisher wurden vor allem Good Practice Sammlungen zum Thema veröffentlicht. Vor diesem Hintergrund beschäftigt sich die Dissertation detailliert mit der Stadtentwicklung für eine alternde Bevölkerung in solchen Gemeinden, die in sich zwar mit der Bevölkerungsalterung beschäftigen, aber nicht als Good Practice klassifiziert werden können. Die Hauptforschungsfrage ist: Wie planen lokale Akteure für eine alternde Bevölkerung? Die Arbeit folgt einem Grounded Theory Ansatz, der darauf zielt, theoretische Konzepte aus den empirischen Daten zu entwickeln. Lokale Governance und kollektives Lernen dienen als sensibilisierende Konzepte, d.h. weitergefasste theoretische Perspektiven. Aufgrund des Forschungsstandes und des Ziels, detailliertes Wissen über die Stadtentwicklung für eine alternde Bevölkerung zu gewinnen, folgt die Arbeit einem qualitativen Forschungsdesign. In den drei heterogenen Fallstudiengemeinden North Tyneside, Poole und Wealden wurden insbesondere qualitative Interviews mit lokalen Experten durchgeführt und Dokumente wie Strategiepapiere und Sitzungsprotokolle ausgewertet. Die Ergebnisse umfassen drei Themenbereiche. Zunächst werden lokale Governanceformen analysiert, was die Identifikation der beteiligten Akteure, ihre Handlungsorientierungen und Interaktionen umfasst. Da Ansätze zum Umgang mit der alternden Bevölkerung sich stark zwischen individuellen Akteuren unterscheiden, wurde auf dieser Basis eine Akteurstypologie erstellt. Darüber hinaus wird analysiert wie traditionale Steuerungsansätze staatlicher Akteure durch netzwerkartige Governanceformen ergänzt werden. Bedeutendstes Beispiel sind Arbeitsgruppen, in denen Akteure verschiedener Organisationen und Sektoren zusammenkommen, um Ansätze zum Umgang mit Senioren und der Bevölkerungsalterung zu entwickeln. Anschließend werden lokale Lernprozesse in der Planung für eine alternde Bevölkerung rekonstruiert. Dabei werden vier Phasen unterschieden: Agenda-Setting, Wissensaufbau, kollektives Lernen im engeren Sinne und Strategieerstellung. Es werden die Wechselwirkungen zwischen Governanceformen und kollektivem Lernen analysiert, insbesondere bezüglich der Lernformen in verschiedenen Typen von Arbeitsgruppen. Schließlich werden Herausforderungen und Perspektiven der Stadtentwicklung für eine alternde Bevölkerung diskutiert, die aus der Analyse von Governanceformen und Lernprozessen hervorgehen. Einerseits beziehen diese sich auf den Querschnittcharakter des Themas Alterung, andererseits auf den ambivalenten Einfluss der Nationalregierung. Die Alterung betrifft verschiedenste Bereiche lokaler Steuerung. Dies führt zu einer anhaltenden Suche nach lokalen Verantwortungsträgern und zu Schwierigkeiten, die Agenda über Gesundheit und Pflege Älterer hinaus zu erweitern. Darüber hinaus hat der Querschnittcharakter ein Experimentieren mit Governanceformen angeregt, sowie die Schaffung von mehr Partizipationsmöglichkeiten für ältere Bürger und die Erstellung ressortübergreifender lokaler Alterungsstrategien. Die starken Eingriffe der Nationalregierung in lokale Steuerungstätigkeiten befördern einerseits die Auseinandersetzung mit der Alterung, andererseits führen sie auch zu oberflächlichen und wenig nachhaltigen Reaktionen. Insgesamt bietet die Dissertation detailliertes empirisches Wissen zur Stadtentwicklung für eine alternde Bevölkerung. Die theoretischen Perspektiven lokale Governance und kollektives Lernen wurden genutzt um generalisierbare Ergebnisse aus den Erfahrungen in den drei Fallstudiengemeinden zu gewinnen. Abschließend werden Handlungsempfehlungen für Praktiker auf der lokalen und nationalen Ebene abgeleitet

Mestrado em Economia Monetária e Financeira
O envelhecimento da população altera a dinâmica das principais variáveis macroeconómicas com implicações para a condução da política monetária e estabilidade dos preços. O presente trabalho pretende analisar as principais tendências demográficas e de que forma influenciam o ambiente económico onde a política monetária é conduzida, causando direta ou indiretamente movimentos indesejados nas taxas de inflação. Recorrendo a uma técnica polinomial, estimamos a relação empírica entre a estrutura etária e a inflação para um painel de 24 países da OCDE durante o período 1961-2014. Encontramos uma correlação significativa entre demografia e inflação, consistente com a hipótese de que um aumento da população ativa causa pressões deflacionistas, enquanto uma maior parcela de dependentes e reformados está associada a taxas de inflação mais elevadas. Os resultados sugerem que o potencial impacto do processo de envelhecimento a nível global sobre a inflação deve ser tido em conta nas decisões de política monetária.
The ongoing demographic changes can affect the dynamic of economics in several ways, with implications for the conduct of monetary policy and price stability. This paper analyses the future prospects on demographic changes and how they are expected to influence the macroeconomic environment where monetary policy is conducted, which can directly or indirectly generate unwanted inflation dynamics. By adopting a polynomial technique, an estimation is carried out to determine the relationship between the age structure and inflation in a panel of 24 OECD countries over the 1961-2014 period. A significant correlation is found between demography and inflation, consistent with the hypothesis that an increase in the share of working-age population causes deflationary pressures, while a larger scale of dependents and young retirees are associated with higher inflation rates. The results suggest that the potential impact of the global ageing process on inflation should be taken into consideration in the decision making processes of monetary policy.

The majority of local areas in the UK are faced with an ageing population. Popular retirement destinations in coastal and more rural areas are particularly affected. The thesis aims to find out how local areas strategically tackle these demographic shifts. The British government has issued strategic guidance for local areas, but as yet little is known about how actual responses look. The literature has largely focused on good practice compilations. Consequently, the thesis attempts to analyse in depth local areas’ experiences in planning for an ageing population. The main research question is: How do local actors in the UK plan for population ageing? A grounded theory approach has been chosen to develop theoretical concepts from empirical data. Local governance and collective learning are used as sensitising concepts, i.e. wider theoretical perspectives. Due to the state of research and the aim to gather detailed knowledge regarding the planning for an ageing population in local areas, a qualitative research design has been chosen. More precisely, it is a multiple case study design, covering the three heterogeneous cases North Tyneside, Poole and Wealden. Empirical data has been assembled from qualitative interviews with local experts and documents such as local strategies or minutes of meetings. The results are threefold. Firstly, local governance arrangements are analysed. This covers the identification of involved actors, their action orientations and interactions. As approaches in planning for an ageing population differ across organisations, a typology of individual actors is developed. Moreover, it is observed that and analysed how traditional hierarchical steering by public bodies is complemented by more network-like forms of governance, for example multi-organisational older people’s partnerships. Secondly, local learning processes in planning for an ageing population are reconstructed. Four phases are differentiated: setting the agenda for the topic of ageing and older people followed by building up knowledge on the subject and collective learning in a narrower sense and, finally, strategy-making. Interrelations between governance arrangements and collective learning are analysed, particularly with respect to different forms of learning in different types of older people’s partnerships. Finally, central challenges and perspectives arising from the analysis of governance arrangements and learning processes are discussed. On the one hand, these pertain to the cross-cutting nature of ageing, on the other hand they are due to the ambivalent influence from national government on local areas. Ageing affects various spheres of local steering activity. Among the main implications for local areas in the UK are the continuous search for responsibility and the struggle to broaden the agenda beyond health and care. This has led to experimenting with governance structures, intensifying involvement of older people and developing inter-agency older people strategies and others as catalysts for further development. The strong influence from central government on local steering advances local reactions to ageing but provokes superficial and unsustainable answers at the same time. Overall, the thesis provides in-depth empirical knowledge on local planning for an ageing population. The theoretical lenses local governance and collective learning have been used to generalise from the practical experiences in the three case study areas. The thesis concludes with recommendations for practitioners locally and at the national level. These refer inter alia to local governance arrangements which come up to the issue’s cross-cuttingness and to national guidance and regulation which could facilitate their introduction or modification.:Figures and tables.......................................................................................................11 List of Abbreviations...................................................................................................13 1 Introduction..........................................................................................................15 1.1 Rationale and aims of the research.............................................................15 1.2 Study design...............................................................................................18 1.3 Thesis structure...........................................................................................20 2 Planning for an ageing population – a UK-wide overview...................................23 2.1 The UK’s ageing population........................................................................23 2.2 Local governance and planning in transition................................................30 2.3 Reactions to ageing in the UK.....................................................................38 2.4 Questions raised.........................................................................................46 3 Conceptual framework.........................................................................................49 3.1 Local planning for an ageing population – linked to various research areas.............................................................................................49 3.2 Grounded theory perspective......................................................................53 3.3 Sensitising concepts....................................................................................55 3.3.1 Local governance..................................................................................56 3.3.2 Collective learning.................................................................................62 3.4 Presuppositions guiding the analysis............................................................67 4 Research design and methods..............................................................................71 4.1 Overall research design................................................................................71 4.2 Exploratory interviews – national level.........................................................74 4.3 Sampling procedures...................................................................................75 4.3.1 Sampling of case study areas.................................................................76 4.3.2 Sampling of interviewees.......................................................................79 4.4 Data collection............................................................................................81 4.5 Data analysis...............................................................................................83 5 The case study areas.............................................................................................89 5.1 North Tyneside............................................................................................90 5.1.1 North Tyneside in profile.......................................................................90 5.1.2 Planning for an ageing population in North Tyneside............................91 5.2 Poole...........................................................................................................94 5.2.1 Poole in profile......................................................................................94 5.2.2 Planning for an ageing population in Poole...........................................96 5.3 Wealden/East Sussex...................................................................................98 5.3.1 Wealden/East Sussex in profile..............................................................98 5.3.2 Planning for an ageing population in Wealden/East Sussex.................100 5.4 Summary and arising questions.................................................................103 6 Local governance and planning for an ageing population...................................105 6.1 The involved actors...................................................................................105 6.1.1 Actors belonging to the public sector..................................................106 6.1.2 Actors belonging to the private sector.................................................116 6.1.3 Actors belonging to the voluntary and community sector....................117 6.1.4 Connecting the sectors: The Local Strategic Partnership......................122 6.2 A typology of actors..................................................................................125 6.3 Governance arrangements: from working in silos to partnerships...............130 6.4 Summary...................................................................................................139 7 Local learning processes in planning for an ageing population..........................141 7.1 Setting the ageing agenda.........................................................................143 7.1.1 Awareness of the ageing population...................................................143 7.1.2 From awareness to action....................................................................146 7.2 Building up knowledge of ageing..............................................................149 7.2.1 Basing planning on (demographic) evidence.......................................149 7.2.2 Older people’s participation.................................................................155 7.2.3 Reacting to stimuli from national government.....................................158 7.3 Collective learning to plan for an ageing population..................................160 7.3.1 Collective learning in the local area.....................................................160 7.3.2 Learning in older people’s partnerships................................................164 7.4 Strategy-making for an ageing population.................................................171 7.4.1 Local strategies for dealing with population ageing.............................171 7.4.2 National trends reflected in local strategies..........................................178 7.4.3 The functions of strategies and strategy-making.................................187 7.5 Summary...................................................................................................191 8 Central challenges and perspectives in planning for an ageing population........193 8.1 The cross-cutting nature of ageing............................................................193 8.1.1 Searching for responsibility..................................................................194 8.1.2 Struggling to broaden the agenda.......................................................195 8.1.3 Experimenting with governance structures..........................................196 8.1.4 Involving older people.........................................................................197 8.1.5 Using strategies as catalysts................................................................198 8.2 Ambivalent influence from national government.......................................199 8.2.1 Influence via funding, instruments, targets and supervision.................200 8.2.2 Skipping the regional level..................................................................203 8.2.3 National government stimulating local areas to plan for an ageing population...............................................................................204 8.2.4 Local areas’ superficial reactions to national government influence......205 8.3 Regional and local challenges and perspectives..........................................207 9 Discussion of the results and implications..........................................................209 9.1 Summary of results....................................................................................209 9.2 Reflection of the results and the research design with respect to the state of research..............................................................................213 9.2.1 Discussion of the results......................................................................214 9.2.2 Discussion of the research design........................................................217 9.3 Open questions and need for further research...........................................219 9.4 Recommended action................................................................................221 9.5 Looking beyond the UK.............................................................................228 Literature..................................................................................................................231 Appendix..................................................................................................................251 A Interviewees and their positions..........................................................................251 B Exemplary e-mail to get into contact with potential interviewee and accompanying project outline..............................................................................252 C Interview guideline..............................................................................................254 D Transcription rules according to GAT 2 (modified)...............................................259
Die Mehrzahl britischer Gemeinden ist mit einer alternden Bevölkerung konfrontiert. Küstengebiete und ländliche Räume sind besonders betroffen, da sie als Altersruhesitz bevorzugt werden. Ziel der Dissertation ist es, den strategischen Umgang der Gemeinden mit diesen demographischen Veränderungen zu beleuchten. Die britische Nationalregierung gibt den Gemeinden strategische Leitlinien vor, allerdings ist wenig darüber bekannt, wie die lokalen Ansätze tatsächlich aussehen. Bisher wurden vor allem Good Practice Sammlungen zum Thema veröffentlicht. Vor diesem Hintergrund beschäftigt sich die Dissertation detailliert mit der Stadtentwicklung für eine alternde Bevölkerung in solchen Gemeinden, die in sich zwar mit der Bevölkerungsalterung beschäftigen, aber nicht als Good Practice klassifiziert werden können. Die Hauptforschungsfrage ist: Wie planen lokale Akteure für eine alternde Bevölkerung? Die Arbeit folgt einem Grounded Theory Ansatz, der darauf zielt, theoretische Konzepte aus den empirischen Daten zu entwickeln. Lokale Governance und kollektives Lernen dienen als sensibilisierende Konzepte, d.h. weitergefasste theoretische Perspektiven. Aufgrund des Forschungsstandes und des Ziels, detailliertes Wissen über die Stadtentwicklung für eine alternde Bevölkerung zu gewinnen, folgt die Arbeit einem qualitativen Forschungsdesign. In den drei heterogenen Fallstudiengemeinden North Tyneside, Poole und Wealden wurden insbesondere qualitative Interviews mit lokalen Experten durchgeführt und Dokumente wie Strategiepapiere und Sitzungsprotokolle ausgewertet. Die Ergebnisse umfassen drei Themenbereiche. Zunächst werden lokale Governanceformen analysiert, was die Identifikation der beteiligten Akteure, ihre Handlungsorientierungen und Interaktionen umfasst. Da Ansätze zum Umgang mit der alternden Bevölkerung sich stark zwischen individuellen Akteuren unterscheiden, wurde auf dieser Basis eine Akteurstypologie erstellt. Darüber hinaus wird analysiert wie traditionale Steuerungsansätze staatlicher Akteure durch netzwerkartige Governanceformen ergänzt werden. Bedeutendstes Beispiel sind Arbeitsgruppen, in denen Akteure verschiedener Organisationen und Sektoren zusammenkommen, um Ansätze zum Umgang mit Senioren und der Bevölkerungsalterung zu entwickeln. Anschließend werden lokale Lernprozesse in der Planung für eine alternde Bevölkerung rekonstruiert. Dabei werden vier Phasen unterschieden: Agenda-Setting, Wissensaufbau, kollektives Lernen im engeren Sinne und Strategieerstellung. Es werden die Wechselwirkungen zwischen Governanceformen und kollektivem Lernen analysiert, insbesondere bezüglich der Lernformen in verschiedenen Typen von Arbeitsgruppen. Schließlich werden Herausforderungen und Perspektiven der Stadtentwicklung für eine alternde Bevölkerung diskutiert, die aus der Analyse von Governanceformen und Lernprozessen hervorgehen. Einerseits beziehen diese sich auf den Querschnittcharakter des Themas Alterung, andererseits auf den ambivalenten Einfluss der Nationalregierung. Die Alterung betrifft verschiedenste Bereiche lokaler Steuerung. Dies führt zu einer anhaltenden Suche nach lokalen Verantwortungsträgern und zu Schwierigkeiten, die Agenda über Gesundheit und Pflege Älterer hinaus zu erweitern. Darüber hinaus hat der Querschnittcharakter ein Experimentieren mit Governanceformen angeregt, sowie die Schaffung von mehr Partizipationsmöglichkeiten für ältere Bürger und die Erstellung ressortübergreifender lokaler Alterungsstrategien. Die starken Eingriffe der Nationalregierung in lokale Steuerungstätigkeiten befördern einerseits die Auseinandersetzung mit der Alterung, andererseits führen sie auch zu oberflächlichen und wenig nachhaltigen Reaktionen. Insgesamt bietet die Dissertation detailliertes empirisches Wissen zur Stadtentwicklung für eine alternde Bevölkerung. Die theoretischen Perspektiven lokale Governance und kollektives Lernen wurden genutzt um generalisierbare Ergebnisse aus den Erfahrungen in den drei Fallstudiengemeinden zu gewinnen. Abschließend werden Handlungsempfehlungen für Praktiker auf der lokalen und nationalen Ebene abgeleitet.:Figures and tables.......................................................................................................11 List of Abbreviations...................................................................................................13 1 Introduction..........................................................................................................15 1.1 Rationale and aims of the research.............................................................15 1.2 Study design...............................................................................................18 1.3 Thesis structure...........................................................................................20 2 Planning for an ageing population – a UK-wide overview...................................23 2.1 The UK’s ageing population........................................................................23 2.2 Local governance and planning in transition................................................30 2.3 Reactions to ageing in the UK.....................................................................38 2.4 Questions raised.........................................................................................46 3 Conceptual framework.........................................................................................49 3.1 Local planning for an ageing population – linked to various research areas.............................................................................................49 3.2 Grounded theory perspective......................................................................53 3.3 Sensitising concepts....................................................................................55 3.3.1 Local governance..................................................................................56 3.3.2 Collective learning.................................................................................62 3.4 Presuppositions guiding the analysis............................................................67 4 Research design and methods..............................................................................71 4.1 Overall research design................................................................................71 4.2 Exploratory interviews – national level.........................................................74 4.3 Sampling procedures...................................................................................75 4.3.1 Sampling of case study areas.................................................................76 4.3.2 Sampling of interviewees.......................................................................79 4.4 Data collection............................................................................................81 4.5 Data analysis...............................................................................................83 5 The case study areas.............................................................................................89 5.1 North Tyneside............................................................................................90 5.1.1 North Tyneside in profile.......................................................................90 5.1.2 Planning for an ageing population in North Tyneside............................91 5.2 Poole...........................................................................................................94 5.2.1 Poole in profile......................................................................................94 5.2.2 Planning for an ageing population in Poole...........................................96 5.3 Wealden/East Sussex...................................................................................98 5.3.1 Wealden/East Sussex in profile..............................................................98 5.3.2 Planning for an ageing population in Wealden/East Sussex.................100 5.4 Summary and arising questions.................................................................103 6 Local governance and planning for an ageing population...................................105 6.1 The involved actors...................................................................................105 6.1.1 Actors belonging to the public sector..................................................106 6.1.2 Actors belonging to the private sector.................................................116 6.1.3 Actors belonging to the voluntary and community sector....................117 6.1.4 Connecting the sectors: The Local Strategic Partnership......................122 6.2 A typology of actors..................................................................................125 6.3 Governance arrangements: from working in silos to partnerships...............130 6.4 Summary...................................................................................................139 7 Local learning processes in planning for an ageing population..........................141 7.1 Setting the ageing agenda.........................................................................143 7.1.1 Awareness of the ageing population...................................................143 7.1.2 From awareness to action....................................................................146 7.2 Building up knowledge of ageing..............................................................149 7.2.1 Basing planning on (demographic) evidence.......................................149 7.2.2 Older people’s participation.................................................................155 7.2.3 Reacting to stimuli from national government.....................................158 7.3 Collective learning to plan for an ageing population..................................160 7.3.1 Collective learning in the local area.....................................................160 7.3.2 Learning in older people’s partnerships................................................164 7.4 Strategy-making for an ageing population.................................................171 7.4.1 Local strategies for dealing with population ageing.............................171 7.4.2 National trends reflected in local strategies..........................................178 7.4.3 The functions of strategies and strategy-making.................................187 7.5 Summary...................................................................................................191 8 Central challenges and perspectives in planning for an ageing population........193 8.1 The cross-cutting nature of ageing............................................................193 8.1.1 Searching for responsibility..................................................................194 8.1.2 Struggling to broaden the agenda.......................................................195 8.1.3 Experimenting with governance structures..........................................196 8.1.4 Involving older people.........................................................................197 8.1.5 Using strategies as catalysts................................................................198 8.2 Ambivalent influence from national government.......................................199 8.2.1 Influence via funding, instruments, targets and supervision.................200 8.2.2 Skipping the regional level..................................................................203 8.2.3 National government stimulating local areas to plan for an ageing population...............................................................................204 8.2.4 Local areas’ superficial reactions to national government influence......205 8.3 Regional and local challenges and perspectives..........................................207 9 Discussion of the results and implications..........................................................209 9.1 Summary of results....................................................................................209 9.2 Reflection of the results and the research design with respect to the state of research..............................................................................213 9.2.1 Discussion of the results......................................................................214 9.2.2 Discussion of the research design........................................................217 9.3 Open questions and need for further research...........................................219 9.4 Recommended action................................................................................221 9.5 Looking beyond the UK.............................................................................228 Literature..................................................................................................................231 Appendix..................................................................................................................251 A Interviewees and their positions..........................................................................251 B Exemplary e-mail to get into contact with potential interviewee and accompanying project outline..............................................................................252 C Interview guideline..............................................................................................254 D Transcription rules according to GAT 2 (modified)...............................................259

As the population ages, public care and support for older people has been seen as a significant challenge. This thesis highlights the importance of considering private family intergenerational exchanges, their continuities and changes over time. It seeks to understand from the perspective of families, how care, need and support works out across generations, and why it is practised in this way. The key research question is: In the context of an ageing population, what can be understood by examining the connection between family multigenerational care, need and support networks and intergenerational relationships? Drawing on recent innovative methodologies, this study explores temporalities and uses this framework to gain insights into understanding family practices. I look through time to see how past, present and future contexts play a part in the way that intergenerational support is worked out. I consider the ways family members support one another, and how and why it alters between family generations, across the life course and through historical time. In order to gain in-depth knowledge about intergenerational support across time, the research employed qualitative life history interviews with four-generation families, i.e. a child, parent, grandparent and great-grandparent generation. The thesis finds new patterns of care emerging under different social, cultural and policy contexts across time. However, some practices flow down generations as part of the meanings and relationships between generations. Moreover, a life-course analysis reveals cyclical patterns of support. Complex pictures of continuity and changes in family life emerge and reveal the diverse ways that support plays out.

The main objective of this thesis is to analyze the problem of population ageing in terms of the cessation of professional activity (and especially premature labour market withdrawals) and non-medical care needs of persons who are dependent or have lost their autonomy, in order to provide the various public and private administrations active in these fields with some food for thought.
Doctorat en Sciences économiques et de gestion
info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

The diet of the ageing population is known to deteriorate which is in part due to loss of taste sensation. Lack of interest in food leads to nutritional deficiencies, dehydration and reduced quality of life. The maintenance of taste function is dependent on the presence and function of saliva. Saliva bathes the taste buds and coats the oral mucosa to enable processing of foods and to provide a trophic stimulus for taste bud function. In the ageing population salivary flows tend to decrease for several reasons including disease, reduced water intake and the side-effects of some medications. This project firstly established the connection between quantity or alteration in quality of saliva and loss of taste sensitivity by comparing taste perception and physicochemical properties of saliva in older (60-90 years) and younger (18-30 years) groups. Saliva samples were collected in response to taste stimulation and rheological properties, viscoelasticity and viscosity, were assessed as well as composition particularly of proteins including mucins, cystatin S and carbonic anhydrase VI (CAVI). The second part of this study was to develop in vitro cellular models to investigate saliva-mediated modulation of specific taste receptor responses. Transfected TR146 cells over-expressing the TAS2R38 receptor and the SCC090 cell line that endogenously expresses TAS2R10 were used to measure intracellular calcium responses to bitter taste compounds. Models were tested using a fluorophore and confocal microscopy as well as a florescent plate reader. Saliva samples collected during the volunteer study were used to create a salivary layer over a confluent epithelial cell monolayer and the effects of saliva from older and younger groups were compared with regard to tastant diffusion and receptor activation. Reduced calcium responses to bitter taste compounds were observed when saliva from older adults was added to the confluent cells compared to saliva from younger adults. Responses to bitter tastants in vivo could be correlated to the calcium response in the in vitro model in the presence of saliva from younger subjects but not with saliva from older subjects. Levels of certain salivary proteins including mucins and the viscoelasticity of saliva samples correlated with taste receptor activation in the cell models and as such, the effect of physical properties of saliva on taste function was demonstrated in vitro.

Population ageing has received much attention as a contributing cause of spiralling healthcare expenditure. This study primarily aims to estimate the impact of population ageing on key diseases, and to develop a flexible modelling framework that can inform policy decisions. This research provides a proof-of-concept model where individual Discrete Event Simulation models for three diseases (heart disease, Alzheimer’s disease, and osteoporosis) were extended from existing published models to simulate the general UK population aged 45 years and older, and combined within a single model. Using external population projection data incorporating potential demographic changes, the methods for projecting future healthcare expenditures for the three diseases were demonstrated and the relative benefits of improving treatment of each of the diseases evaluated. Secondary outcomes include the development of a pragmatic literature search method which can be used for literature within diffuse topic areas, and a literature repository for future researchers to explore the existing literature on ageing and healthcare expenditure. Expenditure for the three diseases is projected to increase from £16 billion in 2012 to £28 billion in 2037. A key finding from this work is that the estimates of costs, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and the projected expenditure for healthcare services can differ when multiple diseases are modelled in a single model compared with the summed results from single disease models. This implies that policy decisions on the allocation and planning of healthcare resources based on the results from individual disease models can be different from those based on linked models. The novel approach of linking multiple disease models with correlations incorporated provides a new methodological option primarily for modellers who undertake research on comorbidities. It also has potential for wider applications in informing decisions on commissioning of healthcare services and long-term priority setting across diseases and healthcare programmes, hence ultimately contributing to the improvement of population health.

POPULATION AGEING IN SCOTLAND - IMPLICATIONS FOR HEALTHCARE EXPENDITURE Population ageing is a major concern for developed countries in terms of public expenditure required to pay for health care (HC). The broad aim of this thesis is to contribute to and expand the debate on the independent effects that population ageing and the time immediately before death (TTD) have on HC expenditure in Scotland. This study analyses, for the first time in Scotland, how HC expenditure projections are influenced through the application of two approaches; the first only accounting for an increasing proportion of the elderly population, and the second also implementing a TTD component. Several issues that are under-researched or have not been addressed in TTD studies previously, are explored and alternative approaches are presented. Utilising two large linked datasets this thesis addresses important methodological issues. Alternative methods to cost inpatient hospital stays are examined as this has pivotal implications for any analysis undertaken to estimate the independent effect of TTD and age on HC expenditure. Explanatory variables that have previously not been considered, such as health risk and health status measures at baseline, are included in these analyses. The issue of sample selection, arising through the inclusion/exclusion of survivors in a TTD study is investigated and the impact of individuals’ socio-economic status on costs is examined. The analysis of alternative costing methods clearly showed that any inference that can be made from econometric modelling of costs, where the marginal effect of explanatory variables is assessed, is substantially influenced by the chosen costing method. The application of a Healthcare Resource Group (HRG) costing method was recommended. This study found that TTD, age and the interactions between these two factors were significant predictors for HC expenditure. The analysis further identified some of the health status and health risk measures to be important predictors of future HC expenditure. An examination of how sample selection impacts on estimated costs at the end of life showed that if survivors were excluded from the analysis, costs might be overestimated. Drawing on a representative sample of the Scottish population, the investigation of the association that the socio-economic status had with HC costs suggested that less is spent on individuals from more deprived areas. This might partly be explained through the decreased probability of accessing hospital services for individuals from more deprived areas. Furthermore, results showed that projected HC expenditure for acute inpatient care for the year 2028 was overestimated by ~7% when an approach that only accounts for the higher proportion of elderly people in a population in the future is being used as compared to an approach that also accounts for the effect that remaining TTD has on costs.

This thesis examines the effect of population ageing on macroeconomic aggregates. The author´s objective is to verify, whether there exists any relationship of the population ageing factors and the GDP growth rate, social expenditures growth rate and the consumption growth rate. Econometric models are based on theoretical specifications of Faruqee´s life-cycle model and Prettner´s R&D model with overlapping generations. The degree of economic development is also taken into account. Furthermore, the author modified the R&D model by incorporation of the poverty indicator and its application on available datasets. The research is focused on five European countries in 1995 - 2013. The Ordinary Least Squares method is used to gain estimated results in regression analyses. The author managed to prove an existing relationship between the old age dependency ratio and the social expenditures in all countries except Switzerland. The impact of the population ageing factor on the consumption growth rate turned out to be significant in all of those countries. Substantial fluctuations are shown only in Bulgaria and in the Czech Republic. The GDP growth rate seems to be influenced by ageing factor in the Czech Republic and in the Ukraine alone. The research has also shown that developing countries respond more dramatically to changes in the population structure distribution, while the poverty indicator plays an important role only in the Ukraine.

Quality of care is deemed a concept of immense importance, but also of great difficulty to define and analyse. This study proposes the development of a novel statistical approach to healthcare modelling which overcomes the need to define quality of care by treating it as a hidden layer in a special type of markov model. The study setting for this research is the Italian healthcare system, in particular admissions into geriatric wards of the Lombardy region of Italy during 2009. The Coxian phase-type distribution was applied to this dataset and shown to give the best representation of the flow of patients. Covariates were then incorporated into this distribution and applied to the data. A simulation study of Coxian phase-type distribution with covariates was also undertaken. The main purpose of this research was to develop the theory of the Coxian phase-type distribution by incorporating a hidden layer within it which can represent quality of care. In forming this model novel methodology was presented. A discrete-time and continuous-time version of the model were both applied to the data with the results analysed. A further extension of the continuous-time hidden Markov model with the Coxian phase-type distribution was developed whereby covariates where incorporated into the hidden element. The results of this model, with application to the Lombardy dataset was analysed followed by a simulation study of all the newly developed models presented. In addition to the hidden Markov model with Coxian phase-type distribution the model was extended to introduce a duration component within the hidden layer. This extension formed the hidden semi- Markov model which relaxes the strict Markov assumption. This model was also applied to the Lombardy dataset.

Swedish municipalities have very different age structures. Migration from rural to urban areas has led to a polarisation of Swedish regions, where urban centres have an inflow of young and skilled workers while rural regions are ageing and falling behind economically. This thesis examines what effect population ageing has on output of Swedish municipalities and how that effect differs between urban and rural municipalities. By classifying all 290 municipalities as either rural or urban and dividing the population of each municipality into six age cohorts, a clear negative relation is found between the share of people aged 65 to 79 and gross regional product per capita in both types of municipalities. Surprisingly, this negative relation is not found for the share of people above 80. This group is positively related to output in urban municipalities, but not in rural ones. Overall, population ageing seems to be negative for economic growth in both urban and rural municipalities.

People are getting older in the world and the aging population is increasing each year which lead to a higher demand of the society to care for the elderly population. In the year of 2050 there will be over 2 billion elderly people in the world and most of them will live in the developing countries. 1 The improved healthcare has led to peoples’ wealth and longer live in the world. Though one can see ageing as a successful achievement, there is things that need to be improved in the society. The ageing population is getting larger and the age discrimination and loneliness among elderly is one of the largest concerns to deal with within this context. This thesis will try to get an understanding of the role of the elderly in society and improve the conditions for an ageing population. Therefore, one will investigate in this master thesis; "How to adapt society for an ageing population?"

The silent demographic revolution characterizing the main industrialized countries is an unavoidable factor which has major economic, social, cultural and psychological implications. This thesis studies the main consequences of population ageing and the connections with the phenomenon of migration, The theoretical analysis is developed using Overlapping Generations Models (OLG). The thesis is divided in the following four chapters: 1) “A Model for Determining Consumption and Social Assistance Demand in Uncertainty Conditions”, focuses on the relation between demographic impact and social insurance and proposes the institution of a non selfsufficiency fund for the elderly. 2) "Population Ageing, Longevity and Health", analyzes the effects of health investment on intertemporal individual behaviour and capital accumulation. 3) "Population Ageing and the Nursing Flow", studies the consequences of migration in the nursing sector. 4) "Quality of Multiculturalism and Minorities' Assimilation", focuses on the problem of assimilation and integration of minorities.

The silent demographic revolution characterizing the main industrialized countries is an unavoidable factor which has major economic, social, cultural and psychological implications. This thesis studies the main consequences of population ageing and the connections with the phenomenon of migration, The theoretical analysis is developed using Overlapping Generations Models (OLG). The thesis is divided in the following four chapters: 1) “A Model for Determining Consumption and Social Assistance Demand in Uncertainty Conditions”, focuses on the relation between demographic impact and social insurance and proposes the institution of a non selfsufficiency fund for the elderly. 2) "Population Ageing, Longevity and Health", analyzes the effects of health investment on intertemporal individual behaviour and capital accumulation. 3) "Population Ageing and the Nursing Flow", studies the consequences of migration in the nursing sector. 4) "Quality of Multiculturalism and Minorities' Assimilation", focuses on the problem of assimilation and integration of minorities.

Mestrado em Economia Monetária e Financeira
Nosso estudo é com base na recolha de dados relevantes das economias do G20 com a inclusão da Grécia, Portugal, Espanha e Nigéria. Os dados coletados são variados em um período de 35 anos (1980 - 2015) e a metodologia empregada é a Técnica de Regressão Linear na qual três modelos foram estimado, nomeadamente: modelos OLS agrupados, efeitos aleatórios (RE) e efeito fixo (FE). O FE modelo que é nosso modelo preferido e ótimo mostra que a coorte da população em idade de trabalhar - que se diz serem produtivas, têm uma associação depreciadora ao RER doméstico. No entanto, a relação da antiga coorte dependente parece ser ambígua, pois mostra que temos um efeito depreciador sobre o RER doméstico no modelo de referência, tendo uma apreciação efeito sobre o RER doméstico após executar um modelo de forma reduzida - um modelo baseado em dados demográficos variável e termos de troca. Isso só foi interpretado como sendo que nosso modelo não é muito robusto para mostram consistentemente a associação entre a coorte do envelhecimento e o RER de uma economia.
Our study is based on the collection of relevant data from the G20 economies with the inclusion of Greece, Portugal, Spain and Nigeria. The data collected is ranged over a period of 35 years (1980 - 2015) and the methodology employed is the Linear Regression Technique in which three models were estimated, namely: Pooled OLS, Random Effect (RE), and Fixed Effect (FE) models. The FE model which is our preferred and optimal model shows that the working age population cohort - which are said to be productive have a depreciating association to the domestic country RER. However, the relation of the old dependant cohort seems to be ambiguous as it shows us to have a depreciating effect on the domestic RER in the benchmark model while having an appreciating effect on the domestic RER after running a reduced form model - a model based on demographic variable and terms of trade. This was only interpreted to be that our model is not very robust to consistently show the association between the ageing cohort and the RER of an economy.
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion

The ageing process in humans is affected by lifestyle and by our genetics, the mechanisms of which we understand to varying degrees. Unpicking the phenotypic and genetic architecture of ageing traits will explain why there is such variability in the ageing phenotype. I begin with a study of physical and cognitive capability in middle to older aged individuals (Chapter 2). I use a SNP shown to associate with nicotine dependence in a Mendelian Randomization meta-analysis to explore the causality of the association of smoking with ageing, demonstrating how genetic information can be used to improve our understanding of the causal association of lifestyle and ageing traits. In Chapter 3, I meta-analyse the association of carrier status for four Mendelian diseases and physical capability, cognitive capability and lung function in ageing individuals to understand whether presumed asymptomatic heterozygotes present with a characteristic phenotype in later life. This study generated a novel finding: PI-MZ carrier status for alpha 1-antitrypsin deficiency is associated with increased height and increased respiratory capacity. In Chapter 4, I conduct the first metabochip-wide association scan of objective physical capability and self-reported disability in middle to older aged individuals, with the aim of identifying candidates for ageing genes. Lastly (Chapter 5), I conduct a simulation of evolution to test a pleiotropic model developed by Eyre-Walker (2010) regarding the genetic architecture of complex traits. I find good concordance between simulation and theory, although discrepancies arise due to the assumptions of the diffusion model. I discuss the potential portability of the pleiotropic model to the context of complex ageing traits. This thesis applies contrasting approaches to exploring phenotypic and genetic influences on complex ageing trais, enhancing our current understanding of how lifestyle and genetics shape our ageing phenome. In a world of increasing geriatric morbidity, such progress is of burgeoning importance.

Die Fragestellung dieser Arbeit ist ob derzeit angebotene e-Government Systeme von älteren Nutzern angenommen werden und wie solche aufgebaut werden müssen, damit diese Nutzergruppe solche Systeme als eine nützliche Alternative zu Behördengängen annimmt. In unserer Forschung haben wir erforscht wie solche Anwendungen, welche von der Verwaltung für die gesamte Bevölkerung angeboten werden, aufgebaut werden sollten, damit diese von der gesamten Bevölkerung erfolgreich genutzt werde können. Zur Beantwortung dieser Fragestellung wurde eine dreistufige Forschung durchgeführt, welche an das ISO 9241-210 Entwicklungsmodell angelehnt ist. Die Forschung wurde parallel in Deutschland und Ungarn in Kooperation mit dem Fraunhofer FOKUS, dem Bundesministerium des Innern, der Bundesdruckerei und der Corvinus Universität Budapest durchgeführt. In der ersten Phase wurden die Erwartungen und Vorkenntnisse der Zielgruppe erforscht um die Eckpunkte und Prämissen festlegen zu können. Diese Erkenntnisse ermöglichten in der zweiten Phase die fundierte Auswahl einer Anwendung, welche als Basis für Nutzertests genutzt werden konnte. Die Testanwendung war das AusweisApp des elektronischen Personalausweises. Bei diesen Tests wurden die Nutzerfehler erfasst und die Akzeptanz durch die ASQ Methode gemessen. Anhand der gewonnen Erkenntnisse konnte die Guideline IGUAN entwickelt werden, welche eine standardisierte Herangehensweise zur Akzeptanzsteigerung darstellt. Dieses Konzept beinhaltet neben den speziellen, an ältere Nutzer angepassten Anforderungen, einem Kriterienkatalog, sowie die Abbildung der Prozesse wodurch eine Erhöhung der Akzeptanz für Ältere ermöglicht wird. In der dritten Phase der Forschung konnte die Guideline durch eine iterative Prototypentwicklung evaluiert und geprüft werden. Wir konnten beweisen, dass Verbesserungen beim Interface e-Government Anwendungen an die alternde Gesellschaft näher bringen, die Motivation erhöhen und das Nutzerempfinden nachhaltig verbessern.
Our research focuses on the question of acceptance of current e-government systems by elderly users. It describes how such systems should be designed and offered for this user group in order to provide an acceptable alternative to offline processes. In order to answer our research question, the research was structured into three phases along the development model of the ISO 9241-210. This enabled to identify not only the main factors of acceptance, but also the expectations of elderly users. Our research was conducted in parallel in Germany and Hungary in cooperation with the Fraunhofer FOKUS, the Federal Ministry of Interior, the Bundesdruckerei and the Corvinus University Budapest. The first phase of our research provided results about the expectations and previous experience of the users with e-government systems. This set the premises for the next phases of our research and provided us with information about the theoretical acceptance of systems by the age group. The results made it possible to select an application in the second phase, which was used as a model in the remaining phases. The selected application was the AusweisApp of the electronic ID card. The test measured the encountered errors and the acceptance of the system with the ASQ method. The obtain results allowed us to develop a generalised solution, the IGUAN guideline. This guideline makes a standardised approach to the usability improvement process possible. It contains the special requirements of elderly users, and a catalogue of criteria, which helps to develop an application in line with the set requirements. The third phase of our research was used a proof of concept for the IGUAN. The guideline was evaluated and tested with an iterative prototyping. We could therefore demonstrate that improvements in the interface make e-government application possible which are perceived useful and easy to use by elderly users. These improvements will measurably increase the user motivation and experience.

This thesis presents novel investigations of three common ageing phenotypes in human population studies, using microarray technology to assess ‘transcriptome-wide’ expression in whole blood to identify mechanisms and biomarkers. Muscle strength is related to frailty and is predictive of disability in older persons. I assessed the association between transcript abundance in the InCHIANTI peripheral blood samples (N=695) and muscle strength. One gene (CEBPB) passed the multiple testing criteria, and is involved in macrophage-mediated repair of damaged muscle. I extended this work with a meta-analysis of over 7,781 individuals in four collaborating cohorts; expression of over 222 genes were significantly associated with strength, less than half of which have previously been linked to muscle in the literature. CEBPB did not replicate in these younger cohorts. I then performed the first human analysis of gene expression and cognitive function (and separately with decline in cognitive ability over nine years) in the InCHIANTI cohort (N=681), and one gene was identified; CCR2, a chemokine receptor. Evidence in mice has implicated this gene in the accumulation of β-amyloid and cognitive impairment. Finally, in a collaborative project with the Framingham Heart Study I studied age-related inflammation – another hallmark of ageing - using a novel approach to ‘transcriptome-wide’ analysis; each transcript was assessed for the proportion of the association between age and interleukin-6 (IL6) that it statistically mediated. Very few of the genes associated with IL6 alone also mediated the relationship with age. Findings include; SLC4A10, the strongest mediator, not previously linked to inflammation, and interleukin-1 beta and perforin, a cytokine and cytotoxic protein, respectively. These novel analyses highlight key molecular pathways associated with age-related phenotypes in whole blood and provide links between mouse models and humans. They provide biological insight and directions for future research.

The elderly population is estimated to increase worldwide. One of the major health determinants identified in this population are injuries where one of the most prevalent causes are falls. The overall aim of this thesis was to describe and explore visual impairment and falls of inpatients and independently living elderly in the community and how daily life activities were influenced by visual ability and risk of falling. Methods in the studies were a quantitative retrospective descriptive design for study I followed by two quantitative retrospective and explorative studies where in study II perceived vision related quality of life and in study III performance-based visual ability were investigated. Study IV was a qualitative explorative study using classic grounded theory. In study I all falls of inpatients at a medical clinic 65 years and older (n=68) were registered during one year. In study II and III a random sample (n=212) of independently living elderly between 70 and 85 years of age participated in both studies. In study IV seven women and six men between 73 and 85 years of age from the two previous studies and six visual instructors (n=19) participated. The data in study I was collected during 2004, study II and III between February 2009 to March 2010 and study IV December 2009 to January 2013. The results in study I showed that most falls in five hospital wards occurred at night and those most affected had an established visual impairment. Almost half the population in study II and III fell at least once. Perceived vision when performing daily life activities showed a positive association between visual impairment and falls in men but not in women (II). No associations were found between performance-based measured visual ability and falls (III). Visually impaired elderly did not consider risk of falling as a problem (􀀪􀀷). Their main concern is to remain themselves as who they used to be which is managed by self- preservation while maintaining their residual selves and resisting self decay. Maintaining residual self is done by living in the past mostly driven by inertia while resisting self decay is a proactive and purposeful driven strategy. It is a complex issue to do fall risk assessments and planning fall preventive action where the individual’s entire life situation has to be taken into consideration.

The purpose of this study is to explore the concept of ‘Healthy Ageing’ in Hong Kong. The research attempts to explore the historical base from which ‘Healthy Ageing’ has been conceptualized in both Western and Chinese societies. This study also tries to provide an overview of literature that relevant to the ‘Healthy Ageing’ concept, and to provide an initial theoretical framework of ‘Healthy Ageing’ in a Hong Kong Chinese context. This study mainly adopts a qualitative approach in exploring the meaning of the concept. Since that ‘Healthy Ageing’ is likely to be conceptualized from the concept of health and ageing, which have been here since the early days, a method of documentary analysis on the origin of the concept and the paths leading to what it is at present has been employed. To re-construct the concept in Hong Kong, this thesis works towards an explanation of the historical base of the concept of ‘Healthy Ageing’ in both Chinese and Western societies since Hong Kong has evolved from a mixture of both cultures. Comparative cultural analysis and research’s own interpretation act as important roles in the present study to consolidate those raw documents in particular of the Chinese literature and construct a new model for the concept. Having constructed a model of ‘Healthy Ageing’, an expert in cultural studies was then interviewed at the end of May 2002 for verifying the model. Adopting a comparative cultural analysis, this study found that the fundamental elements, say physical and psychosocial well-being, in conceptualization of health in both East and West are almost the same, but manifestations and interpretations show some variations. Chinese people are apt to manifest and interpret their concept of health by an holistic approach, while the concept of health in Western societies is more likely to be manifested in a “compartmental” approach. These variations are basically derived from the differences of geo-cultural adaptations and the differences in individual lifestyles. As to the concept of ageing, this study revealed that ageing subject as a process instead of an end-stage of life-span. According to one view of human beings, life-spans can be divided into eight periods: Prenatal (pregnancy), Infancy (0-3), Early Childhood (3-6), Middle Childhood (6-12), Adolescence (12-20), Young Adulthood (20-40), Midlife (40-65) and Old Age (65+). It is a natural and integral process of growing old starting from birth and ending at death, in which a continuous process of biological, psychological and social changes will be experienced in a person’s life-course. After reconstructing health and ageing concepts, a tentative model of healthy ageing was developed in this study. In this study, healthy ageing is an holistic and dynamic concept. It is a state of interactions and adaptations between people and the environment in attaining optimal health in one’s life-span. It is a three-dimensional concept that encompasses health, health-ageing and health-ageing-environment dimensions. For the health dimension, there are six interrelated cross-life domains in achieving healthy ageing, which involve physical, psychological, social, economic, spiritual and environmental well-being. For the health-ageing dimension, people can achieve healthy ageing by attaining health in each stage of life. In this process, the health at younger stage influences the health at older stage. Thus, keeping healthy in early stage benefits the health conditions in later stages, although it cannot be said that what happens in early stage might not be unchangeable for later stages. Adopting health-promoting strategies in later stage can also provide opportunities for individuals to achieve healthy ageing. The health-ageing-environment dimension refers to the people-environment adaptation for attaining optimal health in their life-spans. Basically, people can ideally achieve healthy ageing by adopting health-promoting strategy at every stage of life. However, those favourable and unfavourable external environments will limit and change the opportunities for a person to achieve healthy ageing. To achieve optimal health in their life-spans, people are required to adjust themselves, adapting to their environment and also helping to shape the environment. Therefore, an individual-community approach is crucial for attaining healthy ageing.

According to United Nations population projections, the share of pensioners in the Ukrainian population will increase from 21% in 2005 to 37% in 2050. At the same time the share of the working age population (aged 20-59) will decline from 57% to 46%. This dissertation examines the impact that the changing age composition of the population of Ukraine will have on its economic development. There are three main contributions. First, an analysis of past demographic trends reveals that the current Ukrainian population structure is already “programmed” for population ageing and decline. Future demographic trends will only determine how quickly this will happen. Second, the changing age structure of the labour force will likely have an impact on the shape of the age-earnings profile. An econometric analysis of the Ukrainian Household Budget Survey reveals that, as in more developed market economies, the size of a cohort has a significant impact on the earnings of cohort members. The potential flattening of the age-earnings profile would disadvantage older workers belonging to larger cohorts. Third, a dynamic forward-looking Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model is constructed to perform simulations of different demographic and labour market scenarios to investigate the impact of ageing on a wide range of macroeconomic variables. It is shown that, even under the most favourable scenario, changes in age structure will result in a significant negative impact on economy. Special attention is paid to the impact of ageing on the pension system. Three policy changes are modelled: an increase in pension age, an increase in pension contributions and a reduction in the replacement ratio. Individually these policy changes do not achieve sustainability, but combining an increase in pension age with higher effective pension contributions or a lower replacement ratio can bring stability to the system.

This thesis has been conducted in part fulfilment of the Doctorate in Clinical Psychology. It comprises two parts: a systematic review and an empirical research study. These are two distinct articles both aiming to provide insight into the challenges of late life depression. Firstly, the ageing population will mean that mental health services are likely to see an increase in older people with depression, many of whom will have neurological conditions common in late life, including dementia, stroke and Parkinson’s disease. These conditions have a high risk of depression associated with them. Addressing depression can have a significant effect on quality of life and at present there is limited evidence for effective treatments for depression in neurological conditions. Researchers and therapists have previously been reluctant to conduct psychological therapy with this population, however, there is preliminary evidence that psychological therapies can be efficacious for this population. CBT is structured, goal focused and orientated in the present therefore may be easily adapted for the needs of people with neurological conditions and associated cognitive impairment. Chapter one presents systematic review of this literature, titled ‘Cognitive and behavioural therapies for the treatment of depression in people with dementia, stroke and Parkinson’s disease’. Secondly, depression in the general older adult population will also present challenges for mental health services. Psychological therapies have been shown to be equally effective for older people as they are for younger adults. However, there are a range of gerontological issues that must be considered when working with older people. For example, cohort beliefs, interpersonal role changes and physical health changes may all impact on the way an older person conceptualises their difficulties. In particular, depression in older people has been associated with negative attitudes about ageing. Cognitive theory states that attitudes are mood-state dependent and if negative or dysfunctional attitudes are modified, this can result in improvement in mood. Exploring the attitudes of older people with depression will aid our understanding of late life depression and may provide useful information on whether attitudes to ageing should be specifically addressed during therapy for depression. The current research study explores attitudes to ageing with a clinical sample of depressed older adults and compares attitudes with non depressed control participants. Chapter two outlines the full methodology used in the research study and chapter three contains the research study, titled ‘Attitudes to ageing and clinical depression in older people’, presented within a journal article format.

Background: Research on how rising human capital affects the consequences of population ageing rarely considers the fact that the human capital of the elderly population is composed in a specific way that is shaped by their earlier schooling and work experience. For an elderly population of a fixed size and age-sex composition, this entails that the higher its human capital, the greater the total amount of public pensions to be paid. Objective: The main purpose of this paper is to analyse the link between human capital and retiree benefits and its effect on population ageing from a demographic viewpoint. Methods: We construct an old age dependency ratio (OADR), in which each person, whether in the numerator or the denominator, is assigned the number of units corresponding to his/her level of human capital. Based on data for Italy, we study the dynamics of this human-capital-specific OADR with the help of multistate population projections to 2107. Results: Our results show that under specific conditions a constant or moderately growing human capital may aggravate the consequences of population ageing rather than alleviate them. Conclusions: With those findings, the authors would like to stimulate the debate on the search for demographic and/or socio-economic solutions to the challenges posed by population ageing.

The use of immunoglobulin G N-glycomics to study chronic non-communicable disorders and other complex phenotypes emerged following the Human Genome Project. The consortium discovered that most phenotypes were too complex to be explained by genetics alone. Thus, the biological importance of epigenetics was recognised; heritable modifications to gene expression rather than the genome itself. Nglycosylation is a form of epigenetic regulation known as a post-translational modification. It stabilises the immunoglobulin G structure and alters downstream responses elicited by the antibody and is extensively studied as a candidate biomarker in the post-genomic era. The N-glycosylation of immunoglobulin G itself is complex, with glycosyltransferases and glycosylhydrolases influencing the biosynthesis of the branching structures. Moreover, altered N-glycosylation is associated with an array of phenotypes. Our research team considers the N-glycome as an interphenotype of subclinical health status; an amalgamation of genetic predisposition, environmental exposure and health behaviours over the life-course. This underscores the value of the immunoglobulin G N-glycome in the shift towards predictive, preventive and personalised medicine. However, there is still considerable heterogeneity even among individuals with the same disorder, which warrants further investigation to improve precision of the biomarker. This thesis aimed to determine the degree the underlying genome and clinical factors explain the heterogeneity of the immunoglobulin G N-glycome. I used a subset of the cross-sectional population-based Busselton Healthy Ageing Study (n=637, 54.0% female, 46.2 to 68.3 years of age). The participants represent a highly homogenous population (99% identify as Caucasian with Caucasian parents), and all noninstitutionalised ‘Baby-boomers’ (adults born between 1946 and 1964) listed on the electoral roll in the City of Busselton between 2010 and 2016 were eligible to participate. Three studies were designed to address the thesis aim. Firstly, previous IgG-related genetic polymorphisms were successfully validated using association studies of the N-glycan features. Secondly, next-generation sequencing of leucocyte mRNA was modelled with the N-glycome. Differentially expressed genes were identified, as well as the implementation of a multivariate model to integrate the ‘omics datasets. Finally, clinical factors and health behaviours were modelled using various statistics, extending on previous research. Collectively, however, the three studies evidenced potential utility of the immunoglobulin G N-glycome in identifying cardiometabolic disorders and associated risk factors. A polymorphism with genome-wide significance had pleiotropy to type 2 diabetes mellitus. Additionally, the clinical studies correlated cardiometabolic risk factors (central adiposity, blood pressure, C-reactive protein, triglycerides, fasting blood glucose and insulin) as well as the health behaviours excessive alcohol consumption and current smoking status (both associated with increased risk of cardiometabolic disorders) to an increase in pro-inflammatory immunoglobulin G glycoforms, thus potentiating involvement of immunoglobulin G in the pathophysiology of these phenotypes. Overall, this data-driven thesis identified several factors explaining immunoglobulin G N-glycome heterogeneity. These should be considered in subsequent translational research, to improve the precision of this complex biomarker when stratifying populations of interest.

Chapter One: When is Free Trade Good for the Environment? This paper provides the conditions under which free trade reduces the emission of pollution. In this paper, we construct a computable general equilibrium model of free trade and environment. Using data from different countries with different characteristics with respect to the stringency of their environmental and trade policies and factor endowments, we simulate a reduction on import tariffs and measure the impact on the volume of emission. Our main findings show that, for a combination of relatively high capital to labour ratio and low level of protectionism, if a country exports the polluting good then, trade liberalization increases the level of emission. Whereas if the country exports the clean good, then the effect of an import tariff reduction on the emission level is positively related to the variation in the producer’s price of the polluting good. Furthermore, we find that under a relatively low level of capital endowment for a country that exports the polluting good, the impact of free trade on the environment depends on the degree of protectionism. // Chapter Two: Ageing and the Environment in an Overlapping Generations Model. We empirically investigate the impact of population ageing on the environment using an overlapping generations model. We decompose the impact into scale, composition, and cohort effects. Using data from the Canadian economy, we simulate the impact of demographic shock on the volume of emission. Population ageing results mostly from a baby bust that follows a baby boom. The demographic transition is characterized by an increase then a decline in the population growth rate. Under the first part of the transition, we find that the scale effect generates more pollution. However, if young generations are more concerned about the environment, an increase in the population growth rate may improve the environment via the composition effects. On the other hand, a decline in the population growth rate (population ageing) creates the opposite results. We further find that cohort effect is positively related to the environment when there is a higher degree of awareness towards a cleaner environment. By comparing scale to both composition and cohort effects, we find that scale dominates both effects, so population ageing causes the level of pollution to fall. // Chapter Three: Does Population Ageing in the North Leads to More Pollution in the South? We construct a two-country model: a rich country (the North) with relatively high level of capital endowment and stringent environmental policy and a poor country (the South) with less stringent environmental policy. Both countries produce a clean and a polluting good and both have access to an exogenous abatement technology. The paper has three main foci. First, it provides an empirical test for the pollution haven and the factor endowment hypotheses. Second, it introduces the issue of population ageing in the North into the question of trade liberalisation and the environment. Finally, it investigates the impact of demographic and trade shocks on the level of emissions in both countries. Results from simulations suggest that an increase in the population growth rate increases the volume of emission in the long run. However, population-ageing generates an opposite effect. In the short term, the scale dominates the composition effect. Empirical evidences show that the level of emission is positively related to the size of population. With respect to trade, pollution increases in the North and falls in the South. Also, we find that demographic changes dominate trade liberalization. Finally, worldwide free trade is bad for the environment, but its effect is marginal.

Background: In low mortality countries, assessing future ageing depends to a large extent on scenarios of future mortality reduction at old age. Often in population projections mortality reduction is implemented via life expectancy increases that do not specify mortality change at specific age groups. The selection of models that translate life expectancy into age-specific mortality rates may be of great importance for projecting the older age groups of future populations and indicators of ageing. Objective: We quantify how the selection of mortality models, assuming similar life expectancy scenarios, affects projected indices of population ageing. Methods: Using the cohort-component method, we project the populations of Italy, Japan, Russia, Sweden, and the USA. For each country, the given scenario of life expectancy at birth is translated into age-specific death rates by applying four alternative mortality models (variants of extrapolations of the log-mortality rates, the Brass relational model, and the Bongaarts shifting model). The models are contrasted according to their produced future age-specific mortality rates, population age composition, life expectancy at age 65, age at remaining life expectancy 15 years, and conventional and prospective old-age dependency ratios. Conclusions: We show strong differences between the alternative mortality models in terms of mortality age pattern and ageing indicators. Researchers of population ageing should be as careful about their choice of model of age patterns of future mortality as about scenarios of future life expectancy. The simultaneous extrapolation of age-specific death rates may be a better alternative to projecting life expectancy first and then deriving the age patterns of mortality in the second step.

Thesis (DTech (Design))--Cape Peninsula University of Technology, 2018.
As online environments become more cost effective, allow for more personalisation and often offer faster solutions, numerous service providers have shifted priority to the development of online user interactions. Many perceive this trend as positive, and welcome services that can be accessed online, anywhere, anytime. However, not all members of society favour the shift to online services, and resistance to technology and online services have been documented among ageing individuals. In order to design user interactions for ageing users more effectively, it is imperative to understand the normative changes that impact ageing users’ interactions with online services. The exploration of user perception and experience links to both physical and emotional involvement - documenting reactions such as frustration, fear, joy and excitement in relation to online services. The study focuses on the exploration of perceived interaction barriers among South African ageing users, as well as those interactions already perceived as appealing, contributing to new theoretical insights and a description of the sociotechnical context investigated in this study. The study is completed using a constructivist grounded theory method, with qualitative methods focused on user participation and co-design. In addition to the emerging substantive theory of Ageing User Decision-Determined Engagement (AUDDE), the study adds value to online service design practice by developing a deeper understanding of user perceptions and experiences, within a socio-technical context. Findings from the participatory research sessions informed a set of practical service design interaction guidelines, which can inform the design of more engaging online services for the ageing community. Methodologically the study explores the grounded theory method, within a design research framework, and establishes it as a suitable methodology to generate theory through design practice

The thesis is concerned with the impact of population ageing on the future trends of male employment and unemployment in Japan, since it is thought that rising unemployment amongst older people will increase the dependency rate, leading to a reduction in capital accumulation and slower economic growth. The study is based on material and data obtained while researching in Japan for one year and draws heavily on Japanese-language sources. First, the role of rapidly falling fertility in stimulating economic growth in Japan is examined, followed by a detailed analysis of employment practices across different sizes of company in Japan that draws on surveys published by government and private institutions. It is found that existing analyses of Japanese employment practices ignore the importance of workforce age structure in internal labour markets. An efficiency age structure hypothesis that stresses labour demand rigidities is formulated: it is hypothesised that large firms with internal labour markets attempt to maintain a given internal age structure to maximise workforce efficiency. This behaviour implies that as the population ages, the unemployment rate of older men will rise. The implications of this hypothesis are examined at a micro level through an analysis of the adjustments firms have made to employment practices; and at the macro level through an analysis of the macro labour market. The absorptive capacity of small companies and self-employment for older men was examined using cohort analysis. Finally the impact of government policy on the labour market for older men is examined and assessed. Government policy is divided into two main categories: labour market intervention and public pension reform. The thesis indicates that raising the pension eligibility age will not reduce dependency unless employment practices that generate unemployment of older people are changed.

Australia's population and workforce are ageing. The reason for an ageing population is the post World War II baby boom, followed by low birth rates in subsequent generations. Combined with healthier lifestyles, advances in medical science and the subsequent increase in longevity, this means that there are more older people than ever before and this trend will continue for several more decades. However, workforce demographics are also affected by ageing, and Australian organisations will need to employ more older workers in the near future to meet predicted shortfalls of skilled workers. Although there have been studies examining the current low employment rates of older workers, the identification of negative stereotypes associated with older workers, and related problems and challenges (such as age discrimination), no study of the working intentions of older Australian workers has been reported. Therefore, the aim of this research is to explore the meaning of working for older workers to better understand whether and why older Australian workers might want to continue working. In particular, this thesis explores what it is about working that makes some people want to continue beyond the traditional age of retirement, while others wish to cease work as soon as they are able. There are clear implications for individuals, organisations and public policy emanating from the extension to working lives. The research aims and objectives were best met within a phenomenological approach, and the data collection consisted of four studies. The setting for the research was a single organisation; an Australian university. Three of these studies were qualitatively-driven, within an interpretivist paradigm: (i) in-depth interviews with older employees (aged 50 years or older) to determine their meanings of working; (ii) interviews with managers to determine whether there were any organisational factors encouraging older workers to retire early; and (iii) interviews with retirees to determine their meanings of working and retirement. The fourth study was quantitative and examined the demographics of the organisation and the relevant HRM policy documents. The thesis uses the meaning of working as the initial theoretical conceptual perspective, and derives a new conceptual perspective for managing older workers, which is outlined in the last chapters. The research draws from two perspectives - the organisation and the individual. The organisational perspective examines the management of organisational staffing in the context of future demographic changes. The individual perspective is explored via the meaning of working to older workers. The key findings from the research in the chosen university suggest that despite the Commonwealth Government's attempts to encourage older workers to continue working, the majority of the older workers, irrespective of employment category, did not want to continue working beyond the traditional retirement age of 65 years. Reasons included wanting to spend more time with a life partner, becoming more involved with interests outside of work, and removing themselves from the negative circumstances in the organisation. However, of those who wanted to continue working, the majority was from the academic employment category (both employees and retirees), and the minority was from the administrative or general employment category. Additionally, the academic participants rated working in their lives as important or very important; higher than the ratings provided by the general staff participants. Explanations are offered as to reasons for such differences between the employment categories. The consequences of these findings include the need for a new approach to managing older workers, and particularly at the end of their working lives and into retirement. Australian organisations cannot afford to continue losing staff to early retirement, yet this trend appears to continue. Suggestions to meet this challenge are made at three levels: public policy, the organisation and the individual. Implications for future research are presented in the final chapter.

Australia's population and workforce are ageing. The reason for an ageing population is the post World War II baby boom, followed by low birth rates in subsequent generations. Combined with healthier lifestyles, advances in medical science and the subsequent increase in longevity, this means that there are more older people than ever before and this trend will continue for several more decades. However, workforce demographics are also affected by ageing, and Australian organisations will need to employ more older workers in the near future to meet predicted shortfalls of skilled workers. Although there have been studies examining the current low employment rates of older workers, the identification of negative stereotypes associated with older workers, and related problems and challenges (such as age discrimination), no study of the working intentions of older Australian workers has been reported. Therefore, the aim of this research is to explore the meaning of working for older workers to better understand whether and why older Australian workers might want to continue working. In particular, this thesis explores what it is about working that makes some people want to continue beyond the traditional age of retirement, while others wish to cease work as soon as they are able. There are clear implications for individuals, organisations and public policy emanating from the extension to working lives. The research aims and objectives were best met within a phenomenological approach, and the data collection consisted of four studies. The setting for the research was a single organisation; an Australian university. Three of these studies were qualitatively-driven, within an interpretivist paradigm: (i) in-depth interviews with older employees (aged 50 years or older) to determine their meanings of working; (ii) interviews with managers to determine whether there were any organisational factors encouraging older workers to retire early; and (iii) interviews with retirees to determine their meanings of working and retirement. The fourth study was quantitative and examined the demographics of the organisation and the relevant HRM policy documents. The thesis uses the meaning of working as the initial theoretical conceptual perspective, and derives a new conceptual perspective for managing older workers, which is outlined in the last chapters. The research draws from two perspectives - the organisation and the individual. The organisational perspective examines the management of organisational staffing in the context of future demographic changes. The individual perspective is explored via the meaning of working to older workers. The key findings from the research in the chosen university suggest that despite the Commonwealth Government's attempts to encourage older workers to continue working, the majority of the older workers, irrespective of employment category, did not want to continue working beyond the traditional retirement age of 65 years. Reasons included wanting to spend more time with a life partner, becoming more involved with interests outside of work, and removing themselves from the negative circumstances in the organisation. However, of those who wanted to continue working, the majority was from the academic employment category (both employees and retirees), and the minority was from the administrative or general employment category. Additionally, the academic participants rated working in their lives as important or very important; higher than the ratings provided by the general staff participants. Explanations are offered as to reasons for such differences between the employment categories. The consequences of these findings include the need for a new approach to managing older workers, and particularly at the end of their working lives and into retirement. Australian organisations cannot afford to continue losing staff to early retirement, yet this trend appears to continue. Suggestions to meet this challenge are made at three levels: public policy, the organisation and the individual. Implications for future research are presented in the final chapter.
Thesis (PhD Doctorate)
Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)
Griffith Business School
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As one of the most promising pathways in the transition period towards the low carbon economy, a large scale implementation of electric vehicles (EV) is expected in the near future. Concentration of EV charging in a small area or within a short time will dramatically affect the load demand profile, especially the peak load in the distribution network. As a result, distribution transformers are facing hazards of shortened lifetime due to extra loads, and direct failures caused by potential overloads. Considering the large number of distribution transformers and the massive investment involved, the adaptability of the population of distribution transformers under future EV scenarios should be assessed. In this thesis, an assessment strategy for the future adaptability of distribution transformer population under EV scenarios is introduced. Assessing the adaptability is to understand the impact of the hot-spot temperature, loss-of-life, expected lifetime and failure probability of each individual in the distribution transformer population. Determination of hot-spot temperature of distribution transformers is essential for the assessment. In order to achieve accurate prediction of hot-spot temperatures under EV scenarios, thermal parameters should be refined for individual distribution transformers so that their thermal characteristics can be reflected more accurately than using the generic values recommended for all distribution transformers in the IEC loading guide. Two methods for the refinement are proposed in this thesis. One method is to curve-fit hot-spot temperatures measured in the extended heat run test; and the other is to calculate each parameter with developed equations in the loading guide with standard heat run test results. The assessment strategy is introduced and demonstrated on a group of selected distribution transformers from the population under three EV scenarios, i.e. Business as usual (BAU), High-range and Extreme-range scenarios, which represent 0%, 32% and 58.9% EV penetration levels respectively. Results show that EV charging would be less concerned on the acceleration of thermal ageing than the direct failure due to breakdown caused by decrease of dielectric strength in an event of bubbling. Since the peak load and hot-spot temperature under EV scenarios only last for a short time and would be compensated by low values during the rest time of a day, which eventually leads to a moderate thermal ageing. Occasionally, severe over-ageing can be caused by extremely high hot-spot temperatures, and the lifetime will be reduced to an unacceptable level. However, on such occasions, hot-spot temperatures would be high enough to trigger bubbling and reduce the dielectric strength of transformer's insulation system to a level that is incapable of undertaking the voltage stress, which eventually causes breakdown of transformers. In terms of the failure probability, results show that no distribution transformers are facing failure risks due to bubbling under BAU scenario. Failure starts under High-range scenario. If transformers possessing a failure probability over 50% are identified as high risk, then 13% of investigated transformers are at high risk under High-range scenario, while it increases to 39% under Extreme-range scenario. It is found that the failure probability is dominantly controlled by the peak load, other factors such as transformer age and installation conditions are less influential. A threshold peak load of around 1.5 p.u. is observed that distinguishes transformers in high risk from others under Extreme-range scenario. This observation could be applied to assist the asset management under future EV scenarios that the peak load of distribution transformers should be restricted below 1.5 p.u. to prevent potential failure due to bubbling.

Formative periods represent early phases in life when we are particularly sensitive to experiences that influence later choices. This investigation hypothesised that the design of products associated with formative periods continues to influence preference throughout life. In design for an ageing population these preferences are important because designers often wrongly assume a decline in interest in design and physical ability. If these assumptions are prioritised there can be a detrimental effect on the visual sensitivity and emotional value products convey. In the United Kingdom a significant proportion of the ageing population is financially independent, physically healthy and resistant to traditionally negative associations of ageing. However, limited interrogation of the design process, or of the products produced, leaves a largely youth orientated design industry ill- equipped to challenge these associations and design for consumers whose experiences differ from their own. This investigation interviewed leading design professionals to test these assumptions and to inform an innovative questionnaire to identify visual preference. The questionnaire incorporated images of domestic products from 1930 to 1990 and asked for rapid responses reflecting intuitive preferences. A fifty five percent , response rate was achieved from 5,000 questionnaires posted to respondents aged fifty to seventy five years. Analysis of the findings identified two associations. Firstly, a statistically small association between age and visual preference, older respondents preferred older products, although the association was marginal and insufficient to support the hypothesis. Secondly, visual analysis revealed a strong preference for the most familiar form of the product, proposed as representing the 'contemporary essence'. These findings challenge assumptions that ageing is accompanied by a decline in design interest. Rather, the economic and social cost of establishing a design environment reduces the flexibility of future choices. These issues are age neutral. To address these issues, a critically reflective design approach is proposed as a positive response to an ageing population in an inclusive society.

The issue of population ageing becomes more prominent, countries will see a change in the population structure where a majority will belong to the cohort aged 65 and over. This shift in the population structure raises challenges which in turn will affect a country’s economic growth. In the future a larger share of people will enter retirement than ever before, and being able to keep individuals to stay in the labour force is one attempt which can increase the economic growth. Today, elderly tend to retire before the withdrawal age which in many countries is set to 65. The purpose of this research is to identify which factors affect individual’s average age at which they tend to retire. This is conducted by the use of a cross-sectional analysis based upon the 36 member countries of OECD where data has been collected from the year 2016. By the use of an Ordinary Least Squares method, results show that factors such as education, old- age dependency ratio, and average salaries are significant factors which all impacts the average retirement age negatively.

In this paper, we assess the role of policies aimed at regulating the number and age structure of elections on the size and age structure of five European Academies of Sciences. We show the recent pace of ageing and the degree of variation in policies across them and discuss the implications of different policies on the size and age structure of academies. We also illustrate the potential effect of different election regimes (regimens? types?) (fixed vs. linked) and age structures of elections (younger vs. older) by contrasting the steady-state dynamics of different projections of Full Members in each academy into 2070 and measuring the size and age-compositional effect of changing a given policy relative to a status quo policy scenario. Our findings suggest that academies with linked intake (i.e., where the size of the academy below a certain age is fixed and the number of elections is set to the number of members becoming that age) may be a more efficient approach to curb growth without suffering any aging trade-offs relative to the faster growth of academies electing a fixed number of members per year. We further discuss the implications of our results in the context of stable populations open to migration.

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics
This work was conducted during an internship with the Social Venture Fund (SVF) in Munich which is the first social impact investing institution that strategically targets social enterprises with innovative driven solutions that tackle urgent societal and/or environmental challenges across Europe (SVF, 2013). The SVF addresses the funding gap often faced by social enterprises and aims to assure rate of returns with percentages similar to bank deposits but invests in social entrepreneurial solutions with the objective of maximizing social impact. It commonly provides debt and mezzanine capital as well as equity investments through preferred shares. The SVF 1 with a volume of 7.3 million Euros is currently invested in five social enterprises named ‘Auticon’1, ‘Deutschland rundet auf’2, ‘Essex Social Impact Bond’3, ‘Kinderzentren Kunterbunt’4 and ‘VerbaVoice’5 (SVF, 2013). Thus SVF 1 attracts investors who are mainly driven by impact generation (Santos, 2012). With regard to SVF 2 (First closing 09/12/13: 16.4m €) the team is highly interested in discovering social challenges, innovative ideas and social enterprises across Europe as potential future fund’s investments. Therefore it is important to investigate social issues/ sectors that could be of interest. The present work intends to understand and demonstrate the process of identifying a field of investment according to problem size, attractiveness, maturity, existence of established solutions and identification of investment opportunities. The research aims to investigate whether a sector could be of interest for impact investing institutions who are willing to (financially) support the scaling-up or replication of social enterprises and which entrepreneurial solutions already exist in terms of quality and quantity. The focus is on the case of population ageing in Europe and its consequences which represent growing problems for society and hence provide space for social entrepreneurship (SE). Accordingly existing and emerging opportunities for impact investors in the field of elderly will be demonstrated.

This study was an investigation of the complexities and challenges of change in a community-based aged care facility in Western Australia, to reveal the impact and influence of change on the community. It explored the impact of change on both the residents and the senior management team, as leaders of the organisation, and explored how change influenced the redevelopment process and future of the organisation. There is considerable literature on organisational change including the impact of change on the structure, function, process, workforce and leaders of the organisation. There is, however, little literature on organisational change within aged care communities, particularly with an emphasis on the complexities and challenges associated with change within an organisation that is both a business and a home for its residents. The study took the form of a participative action research study, occurring predominantly over two years (2002-2003) with some continuation into a third year (2004). The study had three phases and included two action research cycles and a critical reference group (CRG), comprising the senior management team (SMT) and researcher. It adopted a broadly qualitative methodology, using data from participatory observation and semi-structured interview; however, it did include quantitative and qualitative data from two 'quality of service' surveys for independent living residents and a staff satisfaction survey. The finding of this study are presented as a narrative account of the experiences of the participants. The study reveals that change associated with the redevelopment impacted on residents' wellbeing, described by them as quality of life.The redevelopment process and associated change also emphasised the importance of communication and explanation with residents to understand elements of quality of life and to monitor and manage the impact of change. The findings of the study highlight the challenge faced by community-based aged care communities classified by government, the industry and the wider community as primarily not-for-profit, to balance financial accountability and social conscience. The perception of benevolence influenced the attitudes of residents and staff and made business accountability more difficult to explain and realise. The study reveals that change also impacted on the structure and function of the organisation as it built its capacity for change. It reshaped the relationship between the Board and senior management team (SMT), which was reported as an improvement in communication, work relations and leadership effectiveness. The development of the leadership team, being the senior management team, was influenced by change and the change process enabled this team to become a competent, confident, cohesive senior team, with a preferred leadership style. A further finding was the realisation of the value and appropriateness of the action research process. It provided tools and processes that were used to plan, act, analyse and reflect on the many aspects of organisational change and enabled the organisation, principally the SMT, to reflect on the impact and influence of change. The research process supported their development as leaders as well as the development of the team. The process of planning, collecting data, analysing data, reflection and action provided a structure and process that they continued to use in their management practices, as new situations continued to arise with the redevelopment process.

Different countries, including Lithuania, meet economic and social challenges and changes in the sector of social security. The anticipation of the problems and taking actions for the prevention of their after-effects, which may occur in future, is especially important, taking in to the account the projection of population ageing. This work analysis the challenges for social and labour market policy, arising from the ageing of the population. Main purpose of the work is to unfold the point of view of different age groups, women and men, about the ageing process of the population and the challenges of this process for state social and labour market, as well as discovering the opinion of the questioned groups of the ways for solving the problems, caused by the process. Therefore, a survey for the implementation of this purpose has been performed. 100 respondents in the age of 30-69 age have been questioned during this survey. The data of this survey do not reflect the opinion of all Lithuanian inhabitants about the challenges, changes and problems, arising due to the population ageing. This is just a tendency for seeing some particular consistent patterns. Essence and reasons of population ageing, world wide and Lithuanian ageing tendencies, state policy on elderly people are being reviewed in this work. Currently have the rates of population ageing due to the reduced birth rate and high emigration level in Lithuania signally quickened. Responding to the challenges... [to full text]