Libri sul tema "Periodic prediction"
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1
Dolph, K. Leroy. Prediction of periodic basal area increment for young-growth mixed conifers in the Sierra Nevada. Berkeley, Calif: U.S. Dept. of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Southwest Forest and Range Experiment Station, 1988.
2
Moreno, Alejandro García. El paisaje del valle del Asón (Cantabria) a finales del Tardiglaciar: Un modelo predictivo de vegetación arbórea mediante SIG = Landscape in the Ason River Valley (Spain) during the Final Late Glacial : a predictive vegetation model using GIS. Oxford: Archaeopress, 2015.
3
BEREZhNOY, Aleksandr, Svetlana DUNAEVSKAYa e Yuriy VINNIK. Prognosis of postoperative course of urolithiasis. ru: INFRA-M Academic Publishing LLC., 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.12737/1863093.
Abstract (sommario):
The monograph devoted to the study of urolithiasis consistently highlights the issues of etiology, classification, diagnosis and modern principles of treatment of urolithiasis. The problems of postoperative complications in surgery and urology are considered as a separate issue, data on original methods for predicting the development of hemorrhagic or inflammatory complications in the postoperative period with urolithiasis are presented. Special attention is paid to the issues of nonspecific immune protection, immune status indicators and hemostasis system in the development of complications in the postoperative period. The section of assessment of the structural and functional state of lymphocytes in the development of complications in the postoperative period by assessing the blebbing of the plasma membrane of the cell is presented.
It is intended for urologists, general surgeons, residents studying in the specialty "Urology". It can be useful for doctors of other specialties and senior students of higher medical educational institutions.
4
Terehin, Valeriy, e Viktor Chernyshov. Efficiency and effectiveness of the penitentiary system: assessment and planning. ru: INFRA-M Academic Publishing LLC., 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.12737/1079434.
Abstract (sommario):
The issues of setting goals, planning and forming a system of indicators of the effectiveness and efficiency of the penal system are considered. The criteria for determining the goals-tasks that are adequate to the public goals of the system are justified. Quantitative indicators corresponding to the criteria were developed, based on the contribution of the criminal justice System to reducing the socio-economic losses of society from recidivism. The contribution of the system is determined by changes in the criminal potential of convicted persons during the period of serving a sentence under a court sentence. Criminal potentials are estimated by predictive values of the aggregate of three groups of characteristics of the criminal potential of convicts, determined by the stages of the cycle of recidivism. The practical results of the use of sound methods and developed tools are based on the use of a significant amount of empirical data on the institutions of the criminal justice system and its systematic expert and statistical analysis. The monograph is a generalization and development of the works carried out by the authors during 2012-2017 in the process of preparing masters of Management for the penal system. It is intended for managers and specialists of the bodies and institutions of the Criminal Justice System, researchers, teachers of higher educational institutions who train specialists for law enforcement agencies.
5
Wang, Bin. Intraseasonal Modulation of the Indian Summer Monsoon. Oxford University Press, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/acrefore/9780190228620.013.616.
Abstract (sommario):
The strongest Indian summer monsoon (ISM) on the planet features prolonged clustered spells of wet and dry conditions often lasting for two to three weeks, known as active and break monsoons. The active and break monsoons are attributed to a quasi-periodic intraseasonal oscillation (ISO), which is an extremely important form of the ISM variability bridging weather and climate variation. The ISO over India is part of the ISO in global tropics. The latter is one of the most important meteorological phenomena discovered during the 20th century (Madden & Julian, 1971, 1972). The extreme dry and wet events are regulated by the boreal summer ISO (BSISO). The BSISO over Indian monsoon region consists of northward propagating 30–60 day and westward propagating 10–20 day modes. The “clustering” of synoptic activity was separately modulated by both the 30–60 day and 10–20 day BSISO modes in approximately equal amounts. The clustering is particularly strong when the enhancement effect from both modes acts in concert. The northward propagation of BSISO is primarily originated from the easterly vertical shear (increasing easterly winds with height) of the monsoon flows, which by interacting with the BSISO convective system can generate boundary layer convergence to the north of the convective system that promotes its northward movement. The BSISO-ocean interaction through wind-evaporation feedback and cloud-radiation feedback can also contribute to the northward propagation of BSISO from the equator. The 10–20 day oscillation is primarily produced by convectively coupled Rossby waves modified by the monsoon mean flows. Using coupled general circulation models (GCMs) for ISO prediction is an important advance in subseasonal forecasts. The major modes of ISO over Indian monsoon region are potentially predictable up to 40–45 days as estimated by multiple GCM ensemble hindcast experiments. The current dynamical models’ prediction skills for the large initial amplitude cases are approximately 20–25 days, but the prediction of developing BSISO disturbance is much more difficult than the prediction of the mature BSISO disturbances. This article provides a synthesis of our current knowledge on the observed spatial and temporal structure of the ISO over India and the important physical processes through which the BSISO regulates the ISM active-break cycles and severe weather events. Our present capability and shortcomings in simulating and predicting the monsoon ISO and outstanding issues are also discussed.
6
Kalitzin, Stiliyan, e Fernando Lopes da Silva. EEG-Based Anticipation and Control of Seizures. A cura di Donald L. Schomer e Fernando H. Lopes da Silva. Oxford University Press, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/med/9780190228484.003.0023.
Abstract (sommario):
Early seizure-prediction paradigms were based on detecting electroencephalographic (EEG) features, but recent approaches are based on dynamic systems theory. Methods that attempted to detect predictive features during the preictal period proved difficult to validate in practice. Brain systems can display bistability (both normal and epileptic states can coexist), and the transitions between states may be initiated by external or internal dynamic factors. In the former case prediction is impossible, but in the latter case prediction is conceivable, leading to the hypothesis that as seizure onset approaches, the excitability of the underlying neuronal networks tends to increase. This assumption is being explored using not only the ongoing EEG but also active probes, applying appropriate stimuli to brain areas to estimate the excitability of the neuronal populations. Experimental results support this assumption, suggesting that it may be possible to develop paradigms to estimate the risk of an impending transition to an epileptic state.
7
National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Staff. Predictions of Control Inputs, Periodic Responses and Damping Levels of an Isolated Experimental Rotor in Trimmed Flight. Independently Published, 2018.
8
Lima-de-Faria, A. Periodic Tables Unifying Living Organisms at the Molecular Level: The Predictive Power of the Law of Periodicity. World Scientific Publishing Co Pte Ltd, 2018.
9
Barbaree, Howard E., e Robert A. Prentky. Risk assessment of sex offenders. A cura di Teela Sanders. Oxford University Press, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780190213633.013.21.
Abstract (sommario):
This essay discusses the assessment of recidivism risk in sex offenders. It begins with definitions of critical terms and concepts. A number of approaches to risk assessment are described. Validated risk instruments are reviewed, with a focus on their reliability and accuracy in predicting recidivism. Actuarial assessment of risk is described as a two-stage process. In the first stage, offenders are assessed and assigned to a risk level or stratum. In the second stage, the probability of risk over a follow-up period is estimated based on the offender’s risk ranking. The essay discusses calibration in the context of Bayes’ theorem, which reveals critically important realities involving base rates and the use of currently available standardization samples in determining a final estimate of recidivism likelihood. The essay concludes with a glimpse into the future of risk assessment and predictions about the next stage in evidence-based risk assessment of sex offenders.
10
Dawid, A. Philip, Julia Mortera e Paola Vicard. Volatility in prediction markets: A measure of information flow in political campaigns. A cura di Anthony O'Hagan e Mike West. Oxford University Press, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780198703174.013.21.
Abstract (sommario):
This article discusses the use of Bayesian analysis in the evaluation of temporal volatility and information flows in political campaigns. Using the 2004 US presidential election campaign as a case study, it demonstrates the utility of a model with two volatility regimes that simplifies the task of associating events with periods of high information. The article first explains why prediction markets are able to aggregate information such that the prices of future contracts are reflective of the event’s actual probability of occurring before analysing data from futures on ‘Bush wins the popular vote in 2004’, or the traded probability, of Bush winning the election. These data are used to build a measure of information flow. The results show that information flows increased as a result of the televised debates, and that these debates, along with the selection of the vice presidential candidate, increased prediction market volatility.
11
Schmidt, Alexandra, Jennifer Hoeting, João Batista M. Pereira e Pedro Paulo Vieira. Mapping malaria in the Amazon rain forest: A spatio-temporal mixture model. A cura di Anthony O'Hagan e Mike West. Oxford University Press, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780198703174.013.5.
Abstract (sommario):
This article focuses on the use of a spatio-temporal mixture model for mapping malaria in the Amazon rain forest. The spatio-temporal model was developed to study malaria outbreaks over a four year period in the state of Amazonas, Brazil. The goal is to predict malaria counts for unobserved municipalities and future time periods with the aid of a free-form spatial covariance structure and a methodology that allows temporal prediction and spatial interpolation for outbreaks of malaria over time. The proposed structure is unique in that it is not a distance- or neighbourhood-based covariance model. Instead, spatial correlation is allowed among all locations to be estimated freely. To model the temporal correlation between observations, a Bayesian dynamic linear model is incorporated into one level of the spatio-temporal mixture model. The model also provides sensible ways of malaria mapping for municipalities which were not observed.
12
Predictions of control inputs, periodic responses and damping levels of an isolated experimental rotor in trimmed flight: Final technical report under NASA-Ames research grant no. NAG 2-797. Boca Raton, FL: Florida Atlantic University, Dept. of Mechanical Engineering, College of Engineering, 1996.
13
Kaledin, Anatoly, Artem Ostapchuk, Oksana Boronetskaya, Elena Vechtomova, Alexander Prosekov e Anatoliy Filatov. The Use of Game Animals. Kemerovo State University, 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.21603/978-5-8353-2997-7.
Abstract (sommario):
The monograph discusses the uses of game animals in the historical pre-Soviet, Soviet, and post-Soviet periods. Is addresses some issues of ecological and population genetics, valuates hunting resources, and provides mathematical models for predicting hunting trends for major game animals.
The monograph is intended for students and academics of agricultural and biological universities and may be of interest to those engaged in forestry, agri-culture, and hunting.
14
Lemons, Don S. Drawing Physics. The MIT Press, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.7551/mitpress/9780262035903.001.0001.
Abstract (sommario):
Drawing Physics is a collection of 51 essays each one organized around a simple, informative, line drawing that conveys a key idea in the history of physics. The essays, each approximately 1000 words long, are chronologically ordered from Thales, who around 600 BCE explained and used the principles of triangulation, to Peter Higgs, who received the Nobel Prize in 2012 for his prediction of the Higgs boson. The essays expand on the science conveyed in each drawing and place that science in a broader cultural context. The essays are grouped into five sections: Antiquity, Middle Ages, Early Modern Period, Nineteenth Century, and Twentieth Century and Beyond. Each essay stands alone and requires no background in physics or mathematics.
15
Boddice, Rob. Sympathetic Selection: Eugenics. University of Illinois Press, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.5406/illinois/9780252040580.003.0006.
Abstract (sommario):
Chapter 5 returns to the blueprint for the evolution of sympathy in Darwin’s Descent, picking up at the point where Darwin introduces a paradoxical prediction of degeneration, caused by the same force that inspired social cohesion and moral progress. This chapter analyses the birth of the eugenics movement as a department of statistics, arising directly from a concern for the common good of civilised society – the central tenet of highly evolved sympathy. Unlike most studies of eugenics, this chapter focuses largely on the period before 1900, when the parameters of eugenic thought were being hashed out. It particularly focuses on the problem of degeneration as seen through the eyes of Francis Galton and Karl Pearson, who pointed to the need for social-policy interventions in breeding.
16
Vlachopoulos, Charalambos, e Nikolaos Ioakeimidis. Erectile dysfunction as a marker and predictor of cardiovascular disease. A cura di Charalambos Vlachopoulos. Oxford University Press, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/med/9780198784906.003.0245.
Abstract (sommario):
Erectile dysfunction (ED) is defined as the inability to obtain or maintain a penile erection to support satisfactory sexual performance. It is considered an early manifestation of generalized vascular disease and recognized as a marker of increased cardiovascular risk both acutely and chronically by predicting all-cause mortality, cardiovascular mortality, coronary events, stroke, and peripheral artery disease in men with and without known coronary artery disease. The link between ED and cardiovascular disease might reside in the interaction between androgen level, chronic inflammation, and cardiovascular risk factors that determine endothelial dysfunction and atherosclerosis both in the penile and coronary circulation. Because penile artery size is smaller compared with coronary arteries, the same degree of endothelial dysfunction and atherosclerotic burden causes a more significant reduction of blood flow in erectile tissues compared with that in coronary circulation. From a clinical standpoint, because ED may precede cardiovascular disease, it can be used as an early marker to identify men at higher risk of cardiovascular events. The average 3-year time period between the onset of ED symptoms and a cardiovascular event offers the opportunity for detailed cardiological assessment and intensive treatment of risk factors.
17
Osterlind, Steven J. The Error of Truth. Oxford University Press, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198831600.001.0001.
Abstract (sommario):
The Error of Truth recounts the astonishing and unexpected tale of how quantitative thinking was invented and rose to primacy in our lives in the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries, bringing us to an entirely new perspective on what we know about the world and how we know it—even on what we each think about ourselves. Quantitative thinking is our inclination to view natural and everyday phenomena through a lens of measurable events, with forecasts, odds, predictions, and likelihood playing a dominant part. This worldview, or Weltanschauung, is unlike anything humankind had before, and it came about because of a momentous human achievement: namely, we had learned how to measure uncertainty. Probability as a science had been invented. Through probability theory, we now had correlations, reliable predictions, regressions, the bell-shaped curve for studying social phenomena, and the psychometrics of educational testing. Significantly, these developments in mathematics happened during a relatively short period in world history: roughly, the 130-year period from 1790 to 1920, from about the close of the Napoleonic era, through the Enlightenment and the Industrial Revolutions, to the end of World War I. Quantification is now everywhere in our daily lives, such as in the ubiquitous microchip in smartphones, cars, and appliances, in the Bayesian logic of artificial intelligence, and in applications in business, engineering, medicine, economics, and elsewhere. Probability is the foundation of our quantitative thinking. Here we see its story: when, why, and how it came to be and changed us forever.
18
Ecay, Aaron, e Meredith Tamminga. Persistence as a diagnostic of grammatical status: The case of Middle English negation. Oxford University Press, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198747840.003.0013.
Abstract (sommario):
This chapter proposes the use of persistence effects (repetitiveness in variant choice) to diagnose grammatical relationships between surface forms in cases of language change. We illustrate using Middle English corpus data on the change from ne to not as the English sentence negator. During the transition period, ne and not could co-occur as well as appear independently. Prior accounts differ on whether sentences containing both negators are a distinct third option (Wallage 2008) or represent the independent appearance of ne and not (Frisch 1997). We spell out the predictions that these analyses make for persistence across sentence types, and argue that the persistence data provide a new line of evidence for Wallage’s three-atom analysis.
19
Freer, Courtney. Politicians or Preachers? Oxford University Press, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780190861995.003.0005.
Abstract (sommario):
This chapter continues tracing the development of the Muslim Brotherhood affiliates in Kuwait, Qatar, and the UAE. It focuses on the period of expansion of the Brotherhood after the fall of Arab Nationalism from the 1970s through the 1990s, with a view to how Ikhwan movements used their ties with governments and their social appeal to earn more popular support. It presents case studies of Brotherhood activities within Kuwait, Qatar, and the UAE during this period to show that the forms adopted by Brotherhood movements in the super-rentiers, similar to Ikhwan elsewhere in the region, were dictated by the political opportunities available to them. Opportunities became increasingly available to Ikhwan branches in the Gulf with the fall of Arab nationalism, which had been the Brotherhood’s primary ideological rival. Contrary to the predictions of rentier state theory, Brotherhood groups managed to establish themselves even as super-rentier governments were expanding welfare packages to citizens throughout the 1970s.
20
Prout, Jeremy, Tanya Jones e Daniel Martin. Airway management and anaesthesia for ENT, maxillofacial, and dental surgery. Oxford University Press, 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/med/9780199609956.003.0011.
Abstract (sommario):
This chapter covers airway assessment and management with the conduct of anaesthesia for ENT and maxillofacial procedures, both elective and emergency. Airway assessment allows some prediction of the difficult airway. Management of the anticipated difficult airway is discussed with techniques including awake fibreoptic intubation. Management of the unanticipated difficult airway and the obstructed airway is discussed following Difficult Airway Society algorithms. Emergency airway management includes cricothyroidotomy and jet ventilation. Indications for tracheostomy, descriptions of surgical and percutaneous procedures and guidelines for the emergency management of tracheostomy/laryngectomy airway emergencies are included. Anaesthesia for ENT covers the common anaesthetic considerations in the pre-assessment and perioperative period during management of patients for common ENT procedures. The special considerations for laser airway surgery and emergency surgery (such as bleeding tonsils and epiglottitis) are described. Most maxillofacial trauma is performed on a semi-elective basis and the airway management planning for lower, mid and upper-face fractures is included.
21
Eller, Jonathan R. Modernist Alternatives. University of Illinois Press, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.5406/illinois/9780252036293.003.0030.
Abstract (sommario):
This chapter examines the dark themes and moods that characterize some of Ray Bradbury's short stories, a reflection of his deep ambivalence toward an increasingly destabilized world. Bradbury never developed a postmodernist dislike of where technology and science had brought the world, but he always remained wary of where science may lead mankind in the future. This predictive urge led him to use his science fiction stories to work through some of the issues left unresolved in his failed novels. This chapter discusses “—And the Moon Be Still as Bright” and several of Bradbury's tales, written in the 1946–1948 period, which are distinguished from other Bradbury stories of the period by their science fiction trappings, their unrelieved darkness, the lack of any familiar points of reference, and their relative obscurity within the Bradbury canon. It also considers the relationship stories that eased Bradbury through his impasse with Modernist themes.
22
ter Haar, Barend J. The Educated Deity. Oxford University Press, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198803645.003.0007.
Abstract (sommario):
During the sixteenth century, the educated elite developed their own beliefs about Lord Guan, with very distinct stories and expectations that were not necessarily shared by the non-literate community. As literacy increased during the Qing period, these beliefs and associated practices then also spread to a larger segment of the population, especially during the nineteenth century. From being a deity who primarily operated through his violent martial actions, appearing in dreams and visions, he acquired a new dimension in which he communicated with his literate audience through writing. He assisted his devotees with a more personal kind of help, still appearing in real life, dreams, and visions, but now also providing counsel by means of prognostication and spirit writing. The deity’s predictions were often enigmatic and became clear only after the unfolding of events, serving as a confirmation of what had happened rather than a very clear guide.
23
Stoolmiller, Mike. An Introduction to Using Multivariate Multilevel Survival Analysis to Study Coercive Family Process. A cura di Thomas J. Dishion e James Snyder. Oxford University Press, 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199324552.013.27.
Abstract (sommario):
Multivariate multilevel survival analysis is introduced for studying hazard rates of observed emotional behavior relevant for coercion theory. Finite time sampling reliability (FTSR) and short-term retest reliability (STRR) across two occasions (sessions) of observation during structured problem-solving tasks several weeks apart were determined for hazard rates of emotional behaviors for parent–child dyads. While FTSR was high (.80–.96), STRR was low (.16–.65), suggesting that emotional behaviors in the context of parent–child social interaction are not very stable over a period of several weeks. Using latent variable structural equation models that corrected for the low STRR, two hazard rates were predictive of change in child antisocial behavior over a 3-year period (kindergarten to third grade) net of initial child antisocial behavior. Low levels of parent positive emotion and increases from session 1 to 2 of child neutral behavior both accounted for unique variance in third grade antisocial behavior.
24
Winneg, Kenneth M., Daniel M. Butler, Saar Golde, Darwin W. Miller e Norman H. Nie. Online News Consumption in the United States and Ideological Extremism. A cura di Kate Kenski e Kathleen Hall Jamieson. Oxford University Press, 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199793471.013.021.
Abstract (sommario):
In an earlier study, the authors found evidence that supported a framework predicting that consumers of Internet news sources held more extreme political views and were interested in more diverse political issues than those who solely consume mainstream television news using data covering the period April 2000 to June 2007. In this essay, they test whether the same patterns hold using data from the 2008 National Annenberg Election Survey online panel conducted during the 2008 presidential election cycle. The authors combine insights from theories of selective media exposure from political communication and social psychology with economic theories of differentiated products markets to develop a theoretical framework for understanding how the Internet continues to impact the U.S. political news market. The driving force behind this framework is the dramatically lower cost of production for Internet news sources relative to traditional television news.
25
Winneg, Kenneth M., Daniel M. Butler, Saar Golde, Darwin W. Miller e Norman H. Nie. Online News Consumption in the United States and Ideological Extremism. A cura di Kate Kenski e Kathleen Hall Jamieson. Oxford University Press, 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199793471.013.021_update_001.
Abstract (sommario):
In an earlier study, the authors found evidence that supported a framework predicting that consumers of Internet news sources held more extreme political views and were interested in more diverse political issues than those who solely consume mainstream television news using data covering the period April 2000 to June 2007. In this essay, they test whether the same patterns hold using data from the 2008 National Annenberg Election Survey online panel conducted during the 2008 presidential election cycle. The authors combine insights from theories of selective media exposure from political communication and social psychology with economic theories of differentiated products markets to develop a theoretical framework for understanding how the Internet continues to impact the U.S. political news market. The driving force behind this framework is the dramatically lower cost of production for Internet news sources relative to traditional television news.
26
Andersson, Jenny. Introduction. Oxford University Press, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198814337.003.0001.
Abstract (sommario):
The book proposes that the Cold War period saw a key debate about the future as singular or plural. Forms of Cold War science depicted the future as a closed sphere defined by delimited probabilities, but were challenged by alternative notions of the future as a potentially open realm with limits set only by human creativity. The Cold War was a struggle for temporality between the two different future visions of the two blocs, each armed with its set of predictive technologies, but these were rivaled, from the 1960s on, by future visions emerging from decolonization and the emergence of a set of alternative world futures. Futures research has reflected and enacted this debate. In so doing, it offers a window to the post-war history of the social sciences and of contemporary political ideologies of liberalism and neoliberalism, Marxism and revisionist Marxism, critical-systems thinking, ecologism, and postcolonialism.
27
Andersson, Jenny. The Future of the World. Oxford University Press, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198814337.001.0001.
Abstract (sommario):
The book is devoted to the intriguing post-war activity called—with different terms—futurism, futurology, future research, or futures studies. It seeks to understand how futurists and futurologists imagined the Cold War and post-Cold War world and how they used the tools and methods of future research to influence and change that world. Forms of future research emerged after 1945 and engaged with the future both as an object of science and as an object of the human imagination. The book carefully explains these different engagements with the future, and inscribes them in the intellectual history of the post-war period. Futurists were a motley crew of Cold War warriors, nuclear scientists, journalists, and peace activists. Futurism also drew on an eclectic range of repertoires, some of which were deduced from positivist social science, mathematics, and nuclear physics, and some of which came from new strands of critical theory in the margins of the social sciences or sprung from alternative forms of knowledge in science fiction, journalism, or religion. Different forms of prediction lay very different claims to how, and with what accuracy, futures could be known, and what kind of control could be exerted over coming and not yet existing developments. Not surprisingly, such different claims to predictability coincided with radically different notions of human agency, of morality and responsibility, indeed of politics.
28
Breaden, Jeremy, e Roger Goodman. Family-Run Universities in Japan. Oxford University Press, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198863496.001.0001.
Abstract (sommario):
Globally, private universities enrol one in three of all higher education students, while in Japan (which has the second largest higher education system in the world in terms of overall expenditure) almost 80 per cent of all university students attend private institutions. According to some estimates up to 40 per cent of these institutions are family businesses in the sense that members of a single family have substantive ownership or control over their operation. This book offers a detailed historical, sociological and ethnographic analysis of this important, but largely under-studied, category of private universities as family business. It examines how such universities in Japan have negotiated a period of major demographic decline since the 1990s: their experiments in restructuring and reform, the diverse experiences of those who worked and studied within them and, above all, their unexpected resilience. It argues that this resilience derives from a number of ‘inbuilt’ strengths of family business which are often overlooked in conventional descriptions of higher education systems and in predictions regarding the capacity of universities to cope with dramatic changes in their operating environment. The book offers a new perspective on recent changes in the Japanese higher education sector and contributes to an emerging literature on private higher education and family business across the world.
29
Cullen, Christopher. Heavenly Numbers. Oxford University Press, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198733119.001.0001.
Abstract (sommario):
This book is a history of the development of mathematical astronomy in China, from the late third century BCE, to the early third century CE—a period often referred to as ‘early imperial China’. It narrates the changes in ways of understanding the movements of the heavens and the heavenly bodies that took place during those four and a half centuries, and tells the stories of the institutions and individuals involved in those changes. It gives clear explanations of technical practice in observation, instrumentation and calculation, and the steady accumulation of data over many years—but it centres on the activity of the individual human beings who observed the heavens, recorded what they saw, and made calculations to analyse and eventually make predictions about the motions of the celestial bodies. It is these individuals, their observations, their calculations and the words they left to us that provide the narrative thread that runs through this work. Throughout the book, the author gives clear translations of original material that allow the reader direct access to what the people in this book said about themselves and what they tried to do. This book is designed to be accessible to a broad readership interested in the history of science, the history of China and the comparative history of ancient cultures, while still being useful to specialists in the history of astronomy.
30
Maes, Ivo, e Ilaria Pasotti. Robert Triffin. Oxford University Press, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780190081096.001.0001.
Abstract (sommario):
This book provides an intellectual biography of Robert Triffin. Triffin (1911–1993) played a key role in the international monetary debates in the postwar period. He became famous with trenchant analyses of the vulnerabilities of the international monetary system that was dependent on a national currency for its international liquidity (the Triffin dilemma), predicting the end of the Bretton Woods system. Triffin was a child of the interwar period, marked by the Great Depression and the rise of fascism. He became not only an eminent academic but also an influential policy adviser. In the mid-1940s he worked at the Federal Reserve, participating in several monetary reform missions in Latin America. Thereafter, Triffin played an important role in the creation of the European Payments Union. In his later academic life, Triffin put forward proposals for reforming the international monetary system. But because he doubted that they would come to fruition, he also developed plans for regional monetary integration, particularly in Europe, where he became the monetary adviser of Jean Monnet. With proposals for a European Reserve Fund and a European currency unit, he became one of the intellectual fathers of Europe’s monetary union. Throughout his life Triffin remained faithful to the ideals of his youth. The young Triffin was indignant about the Versailles Treaty, while the old Triffin fulminated against the Vietnam War. For him, economics was a way to contribute to a better world. He was strongly attached to his independence and the pursuit of a better and more peaceful world. He was a monk in economist’s clothing.
31
Claussen, Martin, Anne Dallmeyer e Jürgen Bader. Theory and Modeling of the African Humid Period and the Green Sahara. Oxford University Press, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/acrefore/9780190228620.013.532.
Abstract (sommario):
There is ample evidence from palaeobotanic and palaeoclimatic reconstructions that during early and mid-Holocene between some 11,700 years (in some regions, a few thousand years earlier) and some 4200 years ago, subtropical North Africa was much more humid and greener than today. This African Humid Period (AHP) was triggered by changes in the orbital forcing, with the climatic precession as the dominant pacemaker. Climate system modeling in the 1990s revealed that orbital forcing alone cannot explain the large changes in the North African summer monsoon and subsequent ecosystem changes in the Sahara. Feedbacks between atmosphere, land surface, and ocean were shown to strongly amplify monsoon and vegetation changes. Forcing and feedbacks have caused changes far larger in amplitude and extent than experienced today in the Sahara and Sahel. Most, if not all, climate system models, however, tend to underestimate the amplitude of past African monsoon changes and the extent of the land-surface changes in the Sahara. Hence, it seems plausible that some feedback processes are not properly described, or are even missing, in the climate system models.Perhaps even more challenging than explaining the existence of the AHP and the Green Sahara is the interpretation of data that reveal an abrupt termination of the last AHP. Based on climate system modeling and theoretical considerations in the late 1990s, it was proposed that the AHP could have ended, and the Sahara could have expanded, within just a few centuries—that is, much faster than orbital forcing. In 2000, paleo records of terrestrial dust deposition off Mauritania seemingly corroborated the prediction of an abrupt termination. However, with the uncovering of more paleo data, considerable controversy has arisen over the geological evidence of abrupt climate and ecosystem changes. Some records clearly show abrupt changes in some climate and terrestrial parameters, while others do not. Also, climate system modeling provides an ambiguous picture.The prediction of abrupt climate and ecosystem changes at the end of the AHP is hampered by limitations implicit in the climate system. Because of the ubiquitous climate variability, it is extremely unlikely that individual paleo records and model simulations completely match. They could do so in a statistical sense, that is, if the statistics of a large ensemble of paleo data and of model simulations converge. Likewise, the interpretation regarding the strength of terrestrial feedback from individual records is elusive. Plant diversity, rarely captured in climate system models, can obliterate any abrupt shift between green and desert state. Hence, the strength of climate—vegetation feedback is probably not a universal property of a certain region but depends on the vegetation composition, which can change with time. Because of spatial heterogeneity of the African landscape and the African monsoon circulation, abrupt changes can occur in several, but not all, regions at different times during the transition from the humid mid-Holocene climate to the present-day more arid climate. Abrupt changes in one region can be induced by abrupt changes in other regions, a process sometimes referred to as “induced tipping.” The African monsoon system seems to be prone to fast and potentially abrupt changes, which to understand and to predict remains one of the grand challenges in African climate science.
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Mills, Gary H. Pulmonary disease and anaesthesia. A cura di Philip M. Hopkins. Oxford University Press, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/med/9780199642045.003.0082.
Abstract (sommario):
Respiratory adverse events are the commonest complications after anaesthesia and have profound implications for the recovery of the patient and their subsequent health. Outcome prediction related to respiratory disease and complications is vital when determining the risk:benefit balance of surgery and providing informed consent. Surgery produces an inflammatory response and pain, which affects the respiratory system. Anaesthesia produces atelectasis, decreases the drive to breathe, and causes muscle weakness. As the respiratory system ages, closing capacity increases and airway closure becomes an increasing issue, resulting in atelectasis. Increasing comorbidity and polypharmacy reduces the patient’s ability to eliminate drugs. The proportion of major operations on older frailer patients is rising and postoperative recovery becomes more complicated and the demand for critical care rises. At the same time, the population is becoming more obese, producing rapid decreases in end-expiratory lung volume on induction, together with a high incidence of sleep-disordered breathing. Despite this, many high-risk patients are not accurately identified preoperatively, and of those that are admitted to critical care, some are discharged and then readmitted to the intensive care unit with complications. Respiratory diseases may lead to increases in pulmonary vascular resistance and increased load on the right heart. Some lung diseases are primarily fibrotic or obstructive. Some are inflammatory, autoimmune, or vasculitic. Other diseases relate to the drive to breathe, the nerve supply to, or the respiratory muscles themselves. The range of types of respiratory disease is wide and the physiological consequences of respiratory support are complex. Research continues into the best modes of respiratory support in theatre and in the postoperative period and how best to protect the normal lung. It is therefore essential to understand the effects of surgery and anaesthesia and how this impacts existing respiratory disease, and the way this affects the balance between load on the respiratory system and its capacity to cope.
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Lopes, Giza. Dying with Dignity. ABC-CLIO, LLC, 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.5040/9798400642760.
Abstract (sommario):
Providing a thorough, well-researched investigation of the socio-legal issues surrounding medically assisted death for the past century, this book traces the origins of the controversy and discusses the future of policymaking in this arena domestically and abroad. Should terminally ill adults be allowed to kill themselves with their physician’s assistance? While a few American states—as well as Holland, Switzerland, Belgium, and Luxembourg—have answered “yes,” in the vast majority of the United States, assisted death remains illegal. This book provides a historical and comparative perspective that not only frames contemporary debates about assisted death and deepens readers’ understanding of the issues at stake, but also enables realistic predictions for the likelihood of the future diffusion of legalization to more countries or states—the consequences of which are vast. Spanning a period from 1906 to the present day, Dying with Dignity: A Legal Approach to Assisted Death examines how and why pleas for legalization of “euthanasia” made at the beginning of the 20th century were transmuted into the physician-assisted suicide laws in existence today, in the United States as well as around the world. After an introductory section that discusses the phenomenon of “medicalization” of death, author Giza Lopes, PhD, covers the history of the legal development of “aid-in-dying” in the United States, focusing on case studies from the late 1900s to today, then addresses assisted death in select European nations. The concluding section discusses what the past legal developments and decisions could portend for the future of assisted death.