Letteratura scientifica selezionata sul tema "Naive credal classifier"

In this paper, we present the following contributions: (i) an adaptation of a precise classifier to work on imprecise classification for cost-sensitive problems; (ii) a new measure to check the performance of an imprecise classifier. The imprecise classifier is based on a method to build simple decision trees that we have modified for imprecise classification. It uses the Imprecise Dirichlet Model (IDM) to represent information, with the upper entropy as a tool for splitting. Our new measure to compare imprecise classifiers takes errors into account. Thus far, this has not been considered by other measures for classifiers of this type. This measure penalizes wrong predictions using a cost matrix of the errors, given by an expert; and it quantifies the success of an imprecise classifier based on the cardinal number of the set of non-dominated states returned. To compare the performance of our imprecise classification method and the new measure, we have used a second imprecise classifier known as Naive Credal Classifier (NCC) which is a variation of the classic Naive Bayes using the IDM; and a known measure for imprecise classification.

Variable selection methods play an important role in the field of attribute mining. In the last few years, several feature selection methods have appeared showing that the use of a set of decision trees learnt from a database can be a useful tool for selecting relevant and informative variables regarding a main class variable. With the Naive Bayes classifier as reference, in this article, our aims are twofold: (1) to study what split criterion has better performance when a complete decision tree is used to select variables; and (2) to present a filter-wrapper selection method using decision trees built with the best possible split criterion obtained in (1).

Recently, losing credit card customers has been particularly serious. Using the found data set from kaggle website, this paper wants to help the bank manager by predicting for them to identify the customers who are likely to leave, so they can approach them in advance to offer them better services and sway their decisions. Nine classifiers are used to carry out model training and evaluation and finally develop credit card customers churn prediction. AdaBoost, XGBoost, Naive Bayes, Decision Tree, Random Forest, K-Nearest Neighbors, Support Vector Classifier, and Logistic Regression are the nine classifiers. The result shows that the credit card customer churn model can be predicted by all machine learning models. Among them, the XGBoost model performs exceptionally well, with a training accuracy of 100%, a test accuracy of 97%, and the highest F1 score of 92%. So it can be concluded that this model can be applied to relevant datasets for prediction in order to assist banks in better retaining their existing customers.

This is an analysis of South Africa’s (SA) sovereign credit rating (SCR) using Naïve Bayes, a Machine learning (ML) technique. Quarterly data from 1999 to 2018 of macroeconomic variables and categorical SCRs were analyzed and classified to predict and compare variables used in assigning SCRs. A sovereign credit rating (SCR) is a measurement of a sovereign government’s ability to meet its financial debt obligations. The differences by Credit Rating Agencies (CRA) on rating grades on similar firms and sovereigns have raised questions on which elements truly determine credit ratings. Sovereign ratings were split into two (2) categories that is less stable and more stable. Through data cross-validation for supervised learning, the study compared variables used in assessing sovereign rating by the major rating agencies namely Fitch, Moody’s and Standard and Poor’s. Cross-validation splits the dataset into train set and test set. The research applied cross-validation to reduce the effects of overfitting on the Naïve Bayes Classification model. Naïve Bayes Classification is a Machine-learning algorithm that utilizes the Bayes theorem in classification of objects by following a probabilistic approach. All variables in the data were split in the ratio of 80:20 for the train set and test set respectively. Naïve Bayes managed to classify the given variables using the two SCR categories that is more stable and less stable. Variables classified under more stable indicates that ratings are high or favorable and those for less stable show unfavorable or low ratings. The findings show that CRAs use different macroeconomic variables to assess and assign sovereign ratings. Household debt to disposable income, exchange rates and inflation were the most important variables for estimating and classifying ratings.

Avec l'utilisation croissante des systèmes d'aide à la décision, automatisés ou semi-automatisés, en intelligence artificielle se crée le besoin de les rendre fiables et transparents pour un utilisateur final. Tandis que le rôle des méthodes d'explicabilité est généralement d'augmenter la transparence, la fiabilité peut être obtenue en fournissant des explications certifiées, dans le sens qu'elles sont garanties d'être vraies, et en considérant des modèles robustes qui peuvent s'abstenir quand l'information disponible est trop insuffisante, plutôt que de forcer une décision dans l'unique but d'éviter l'indécision. Ce dernier aspect est communément appelé "inférence sceptique". Ce travail s'inscrit dans ces considérations, en étudiant deux cas : - Le premier se focalise sur un modèle classique de décision utilisé pour intégrer de l'équité, les Sommes Pondérées Ordonnées (Ordered Weighted Averaging -- OWA) à poids décroissants. Notre principale contribution est de caractériser d'un point de vue axiomatique un ensemble convexe de ces règles, et de proposer à partir de cette caractérisation un schéma explicatif correct et complet des décisions prises qui peuvent être obtenues efficacement à partir d'heuristiques. Ce faisant, nous proposons aussi un cadre unifiant les dominances de Lorenz restreintes et généralisées, deux critères qualitatifs, et les OWA décroissants précis. - Le second se focalise sur le cas où la règle de décision est un modèle de classification obtenu à partir d'une procédure d'apprentissage sous forme d'un ensemble convexe de probabilités. Nous étudions et traitons le problème de fournir des impliquants premiers comme explication dans ce contexte, où en plus d'expliquer les préférences d'une classe sur une autre, nous avons aussi à traiter le cas où deux classes sont considérées incomparables. Nous décrivons ces problèmes de manière générale avant de les étudier en détail pour la version robuste du classifieur de Bayes Naïf
With the advent of automated or semi-automated decision systems in artificial intelligence comes the need of making them more reliable and transparent for an end-user. While the role of explainable methods is in general to increase transparency, reliability can be achieved by providing certified explanations, in the sense that those are guaranteed to be true, and by considering robust models that can abstain when having insufficient information, rather than enforcing precision for the mere sake of avoiding indecision. This last aspect is commonly referred to as skeptical inference. This work participates to this effort, by considering two cases: - The first one considers classical decision rules used to enforce fairness, which are the Ordered Weighted Averaging (OWA) with decreasing weights. Our main contribution is to fully characterise from an axiomatic perspective convex sets of such rules, and to provide together with this sound and complete explanation schemes that can be efficiently obtained through heuristics. Doing so, we also provide a unifying framework between the restricted and generalized Lorenz dominance, two qualitative criteria, and precise decreasing OWA. - The second one considers that our decision rule is a classification model resulting from a learning procedure, where the resulting model is a set of probabilities. We study and discuss the problem of providing prime implicant as explanations in such a case, where in addition to explaining clear preferences of one class over the other, we also have to treat the problem of declaring two classes as being incomparable. We describe the corresponding problems in general ways, before studying in more details the robust counter-part of the Naive Bayes Classifier

Nationalism: Past as Prologue began as a single volume being compiled by Ad Akande, a scholar from South Africa, who proposed it to me as co-author about two years ago. The original idea was to examine how the damaging roots of nationalism have been corroding political systems around the world, and creating dangerous obstacles for necessary international cooperation. Since I (Bruce E. Johansen) has written profusely about climate change (global warming, a.k.a. infrared forcing), I suggested a concerted effort in that direction. This is a worldwide existential threat that affects every living thing on Earth. It often compounds upon itself, so delays in reducing emissions of fossil fuels are shortening the amount of time remaining to eliminate the use of fossil fuels to preserve a livable planet. Nationalism often impedes solutions to this problem (among many others), as nations place their singular needs above the common good. Our initial proposal got around, and abstracts on many subjects arrived. Within a few weeks, we had enough good material for a 100,000-word book. The book then fattened to two moderate volumes and then to four two very hefty tomes. We tried several different titles as good submissions swelled. We also discovered that our best contributors were experts in their fields, which ranged the world. We settled on three stand-alone books:” 1/ nationalism and racial justice. Our first volume grew as the growth of Black Lives Matter following the brutal killing of George Floyd ignited protests over police brutality and other issues during 2020, following the police assassination of Floyd in Minneapolis. It is estimated that more people took part in protests of police brutality during the summer of 2020 than any other series of marches in United States history. This includes upheavals during the 1960s over racial issues and against the war in Southeast Asia (notably Vietnam). We choose a volume on racism because it is one of nationalism’s main motive forces. This volume provides a worldwide array of work on nationalism’s growth in various countries, usually by authors residing in them, or in the United States with ethnic ties to the nation being examined, often recent immigrants to the United States from them. Our roster of contributors comprises a small United Nations of insightful, well-written research and commentary from Indonesia, New Zealand, Australia, China, India, South Africa, France, Portugal, Estonia, Hungary, Russia, Poland, Kazakhstan, Georgia, and the United States. Volume 2 (this one) describes and analyzes nationalism, by country, around the world, except for the United States; and 3/material directly related to President Donald Trump, and the United States. The first volume is under consideration at the Texas A & M University Press. The other two are under contract to Nova Science Publishers (which includes social sciences). These three volumes may be used individually or as a set. Environmental material is taken up in appropriate places in each of the three books. * * * * * What became the United States of America has been strongly nationalist since the English of present-day Massachusetts and Jamestown first hit North America’s eastern shores. The country propelled itself across North America with the self-serving ideology of “manifest destiny” for four centuries before Donald Trump came along. Anyone who believes that a Trumpian affection for deportation of “illegals” is a new thing ought to take a look at immigration and deportation statistics in Adam Goodman’s The Deportation Machine: America’s Long History of Deporting Immigrants (Princeton University Press, 2020). Between 1920 and 2018, the United States deported 56.3 million people, compared with 51.7 million who were granted legal immigration status during the same dates. Nearly nine of ten deportees were Mexican (Nolan, 2020, 83). This kind of nationalism, has become an assassin of democracy as well as an impediment to solving global problems. Paul Krugman wrote in the New York Times (2019:A-25): that “In their 2018 book, How Democracies Die, the political scientists Steven Levitsky and Daniel Ziblatt documented how this process has played out in many countries, from Vladimir Putin’s Russia, to Recep Erdogan’s Turkey, to Viktor Orban’s Hungary. Add to these India’s Narendra Modi, China’s Xi Jinping, and the United States’ Donald Trump, among others. Bit by bit, the guardrails of democracy have been torn down, as institutions meant to serve the public became tools of ruling parties and self-serving ideologies, weaponized to punish and intimidate opposition parties’ opponents. On paper, these countries are still democracies; in practice, they have become one-party regimes….And it’s happening here [the United States] as we speak. If you are not worried about the future of American democracy, you aren’t paying attention” (Krugmam, 2019, A-25). We are reminded continuously that the late Carl Sagan, one of our most insightful scientific public intellectuals, had an interesting theory about highly developed civilizations. Given the number of stars and planets that must exist in the vast reaches of the universe, he said, there must be other highly developed and organized forms of life. Distance may keep us from making physical contact, but Sagan said that another reason we may never be on speaking terms with another intelligent race is (judging from our own example) could be their penchant for destroying themselves in relatively short order after reaching technological complexity. This book’s chapters, introduction, and conclusion examine the worldwide rise of partisan nationalism and the damage it has wrought on the worldwide pursuit of solutions for issues requiring worldwide scope, such scientific co-operation public health and others, mixing analysis of both. We use both historical description and analysis. This analysis concludes with a description of why we must avoid the isolating nature of nationalism that isolates people and encourages separation if we are to deal with issues of world-wide concern, and to maintain a sustainable, survivable Earth, placing the dominant political movement of our time against the Earth’s existential crises. Our contributors, all experts in their fields, each have assumed responsibility for a country, or two if they are related. This work entwines themes of worldwide concern with the political growth of nationalism because leaders with such a worldview are disinclined to co-operate internationally at a time when nations must find ways to solve common problems, such as the climate crisis. Inability to cooperate at this stage may doom everyone, eventually, to an overheated, stormy future plagued by droughts and deluges portending shortages of food and other essential commodities, meanwhile destroying large coastal urban areas because of rising sea levels. Future historians may look back at our time and wonder why as well as how our world succumbed to isolating nationalism at a time when time was so short for cooperative intervention which is crucial for survival of a sustainable earth. Pride in language and culture is salubrious to individuals’ sense of history and identity. Excess nationalism that prevents international co-operation on harmful worldwide maladies is quite another. As Pope Francis has pointed out: For all of our connectivity due to expansion of social media, ability to communicate can breed contempt as well as mutual trust. “For all our hyper-connectivity,” said Francis, “We witnessed a fragmentation that made it more difficult to resolve problems that affect us all” (Horowitz, 2020, A-12). The pope’s encyclical, titled “Brothers All,” also said: “The forces of myopic, extremist, resentful, and aggressive nationalism are on the rise.” The pope’s document also advocates support for migrants, as well as resistance to nationalist and tribal populism. Francis broadened his critique to the role of market capitalism, as well as nationalism has failed the peoples of the world when they need co-operation and solidarity in the face of the world-wide corona virus pandemic. Humankind needs to unite into “a new sense of the human family [Fratelli Tutti, “Brothers All”], that rejects war at all costs” (Pope, 2020, 6-A). Our journey takes us first to Russia, with the able eye and honed expertise of Richard D. Anderson, Jr. who teaches as UCLA and publishes on the subject of his chapter: “Putin, Russian identity, and Russia’s conduct at home and abroad.” Readers should find Dr. Anderson’s analysis fascinating because Vladimir Putin, the singular leader of Russian foreign and domestic policy these days (and perhaps for the rest of his life, given how malleable Russia’s Constitution has become) may be a short man physically, but has high ambitions. One of these involves restoring the old Russian (and Soviet) empire, which would involve re-subjugating a number of nations that broke off as the old order dissolved about 30 years ago. President (shall we say czar?) Putin also has international ambitions, notably by destabilizing the United States, where election meddling has become a specialty. The sight of Putin and U.S. president Donald Trump, two very rich men (Putin $70-$200 billion; Trump $2.5 billion), nuzzling in friendship would probably set Thomas Jefferson and Vladimir Lenin spinning in their graves. The road of history can take some unanticipated twists and turns. Consider Poland, from which we have an expert native analysis in chapter 2, Bartosz Hlebowicz, who is a Polish anthropologist and journalist. His piece is titled “Lawless and Unjust: How to Quickly Make Your Own Country a Puppet State Run by a Group of Hoodlums – the Hopeless Case of Poland (2015–2020).” When I visited Poland to teach and lecture twice between 2006 and 2008, most people seemed to be walking on air induced by freedom to conduct their own affairs to an unusual degree for a state usually squeezed between nationalists in Germany and Russia. What did the Poles then do in a couple of decades? Read Hlebowicz’ chapter and decide. It certainly isn’t soft-bellied liberalism. In Chapter 3, with Bruce E. Johansen, we visit China’s western provinces, the lands of Tibet as well as the Uighurs and other Muslims in the Xinjiang region, who would most assuredly resent being characterized as being possessed by the Chinese of the Han to the east. As a student of Native American history, I had never before thought of the Tibetans and Uighurs as Native peoples struggling against the Independence-minded peoples of a land that is called an adjunct of China on most of our maps. The random act of sitting next to a young woman on an Air India flight out of Hyderabad, bound for New Delhi taught me that the Tibetans had something to share with the Lakota, the Iroquois, and hundreds of other Native American states and nations in North America. Active resistance to Chinese rule lasted into the mid-nineteenth century, and continues today in a subversive manner, even in song, as I learned in 2018 when I acted as a foreign adjudicator on a Ph.D. dissertation by a Tibetan student at the University of Madras (in what is now in a city called Chennai), in southwestern India on resistance in song during Tibet’s recent history. Tibet is one of very few places on Earth where a young dissident can get shot to death for singing a song that troubles China’s Quest for Lebensraum. The situation in Xinjiang region, where close to a million Muslims have been interned in “reeducation” camps surrounded with brick walls and barbed wire. They sing, too. Come with us and hear the music. Back to Europe now, in Chapter 4, to Portugal and Spain, we find a break in the general pattern of nationalism. Portugal has been more progressive governmentally than most. Spain varies from a liberal majority to military coups, a pattern which has been exported to Latin America. A situation such as this can make use of the term “populism” problematic, because general usage in our time usually ties the word into a right-wing connotative straightjacket. “Populism” can be used to describe progressive (left-wing) insurgencies as well. José Pinto, who is native to Portugal and also researches and writes in Spanish as well as English, in “Populism in Portugal and Spain: a Real Neighbourhood?” provides insight into these historical paradoxes. Hungary shares some historical inclinations with Poland (above). Both emerged from Soviet dominance in an air of developing freedom and multicultural diversity after the Berlin Wall fell and the Soviet Union collapsed. Then, gradually at first, right wing-forces began to tighten up, stripping structures supporting popular freedom, from the courts, mass media, and other institutions. In Chapter 5, Bernard Tamas, in “From Youth Movement to Right-Liberal Wing Authoritarianism: The Rise of Fidesz and the Decline of Hungarian Democracy” puts the renewed growth of political and social repression into a context of worldwide nationalism. Tamas, an associate professor of political science at Valdosta State University, has been a postdoctoral fellow at Harvard University and a Fulbright scholar at the Central European University in Budapest, Hungary. His books include From Dissident to Party Politics: The Struggle for Democracy in Post-Communist Hungary (2007). Bear in mind that not everyone shares Orbán’s vision of what will make this nation great, again. On graffiti-covered walls in Budapest, Runes (traditional Hungarian script) has been found that read “Orbán is a motherfucker” (Mikanowski, 2019, 58). Also in Europe, in Chapter 6, Professor Ronan Le Coadic, of the University of Rennes, Rennes, France, in “Is There a Revival of French Nationalism?” Stating this title in the form of a question is quite appropriate because France’s nationalistic shift has built and ebbed several times during the last few decades. For a time after 2000, it came close to assuming the role of a substantial minority, only to ebb after that. In 2017, the candidate of the National Front reached the second round of the French presidential election. This was the second time this nationalist party reached the second round of the presidential election in the history of the Fifth Republic. In 2002, however, Jean-Marie Le Pen had only obtained 17.79% of the votes, while fifteen years later his daughter, Marine Le Pen, almost doubled her father's record, reaching 33.90% of the votes cast. Moreover, in the 2019 European elections, re-named Rassemblement National obtained the largest number of votes of all French political formations and can therefore boast of being "the leading party in France.” The brutality of oppressive nationalism may be expressed in personal relationships, such as child abuse. While Indonesia and Aotearoa [the Maoris’ name for New Zealand] hold very different ranks in the United Nations Human Development Programme assessments, where Indonesia is classified as a medium development country and Aotearoa New Zealand as a very high development country. In Chapter 7, “Domestic Violence Against Women in Indonesia and Aotearoa New Zealand: Making Sense of Differences and Similarities” co-authors, in Chapter 8, Mandy Morgan and Dr. Elli N. Hayati, from New Zealand and Indonesia respectively, found that despite their socio-economic differences, one in three women in each country experience physical or sexual intimate partner violence over their lifetime. In this chapter ther authors aim to deepen understandings of domestic violence through discussion of the socio-economic and demographic characteristics of theit countries to address domestic violence alongside studies of women’s attitudes to gender norms and experiences of intimate partner violence. One of the most surprising and upsetting scholarly journeys that a North American student may take involves Adolf Hitler’s comments on oppression of American Indians and Blacks as he imagined the construction of the Nazi state, a genesis of nationalism that is all but unknown in the United States of America, traced in this volume (Chapter 8) by co-editor Johansen. Beginning in Mein Kampf, during the 1920s, Hitler explicitly used the westward expansion of the United States across North America as a model and justification for Nazi conquest and anticipated colonization by Germans of what the Nazis called the “wild East” – the Slavic nations of Poland, the Baltic states, Ukraine, and Russia, most of which were under control of the Soviet Union. The Volga River (in Russia) was styled by Hitler as the Germans’ Mississippi, and covered wagons were readied for the German “manifest destiny” of imprisoning, eradicating, and replacing peoples the Nazis deemed inferior, all with direct references to events in North America during the previous century. At the same time, with no sense of contradiction, the Nazis partook of a long-standing German romanticism of Native Americans. One of Goebbels’ less propitious schemes was to confer honorary Aryan status on Native American tribes, in the hope that they would rise up against their oppressors. U.S. racial attitudes were “evidence [to the Nazis] that America was evolving in the right direction, despite its specious rhetoric about equality.” Ming Xie, originally from Beijing, in the People’s Republic of China, in Chapter 9, “News Coverage and Public Perceptions of the Social Credit System in China,” writes that The State Council of China in 2014 announced “that a nationwide social credit system would be established” in China. “Under this system, individuals, private companies, social organizations, and governmental agencies are assigned a score which will be calculated based on their trustworthiness and daily actions such as transaction history, professional conduct, obedience to law, corruption, tax evasion, and academic plagiarism.” The “nationalism” in this case is that of the state over the individual. China has 1.4 billion people; this system takes their measure for the purpose of state control. Once fully operational, control will be more subtle. People who are subject to it, through modern technology (most often smart phones) will prompt many people to self-censor. Orwell, modernized, might write: “Your smart phone is watching you.” Ming Xie holds two Ph.Ds, one in Public Administration from University of Nebraska at Omaha and another in Cultural Anthropology from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Beijing, where she also worked for more than 10 years at a national think tank in the same institution. While there she summarized news from non-Chinese sources for senior members of the Chinese Communist Party. Ming is presently an assistant professor at the Department of Political Science and Criminal Justice, West Texas A&M University. In Chapter 10, analyzing native peoples and nationhood, Barbara Alice Mann, Professor of Honours at the University of Toledo, in “Divide, et Impera: The Self-Genocide Game” details ways in which European-American invaders deprive the conquered of their sense of nationhood as part of a subjugation system that amounts to genocide, rubbing out their languages and cultures -- and ultimately forcing the native peoples to assimilate on their own, for survival in a culture that is foreign to them. Mann is one of Native American Studies’ most acute critics of conquests’ contradictions, and an author who retrieves Native history with a powerful sense of voice and purpose, having authored roughly a dozen books and numerous book chapters, among many other works, who has traveled around the world lecturing and publishing on many subjects. Nalanda Roy and S. Mae Pedron in Chapter 11, “Understanding the Face of Humanity: The Rohingya Genocide.” describe one of the largest forced migrations in the history of the human race, the removal of 700,000 to 800,000 Muslims from Buddhist Myanmar to Bangladesh, which itself is already one of the most crowded and impoverished nations on Earth. With about 150 million people packed into an area the size of Nebraska and Iowa (population less than a tenth that of Bangladesh, a country that is losing land steadily to rising sea levels and erosion of the Ganges river delta. The Rohingyas’ refugee camp has been squeezed onto a gigantic, eroding, muddy slope that contains nearly no vegetation. However, Bangladesh is majority Muslim, so while the Rohingya may starve, they won’t be shot to death by marauding armies. Both authors of this exquisite (and excruciating) account teach at Georgia Southern University in Savannah, Georgia, Roy as an associate professor of International Studies and Asian politics, and Pedron as a graduate student; Roy originally hails from very eastern India, close to both Myanmar and Bangladesh, so he has special insight into the context of one of the most brutal genocides of our time, or any other. This is our case describing the problems that nationalism has and will pose for the sustainability of the Earth as our little blue-and-green orb becomes more crowded over time. The old ways, in which national arguments often end in devastating wars, are obsolete, given that the Earth and all the people, plants, and other animals that it sustains are faced with the existential threat of a climate crisis that within two centuries, more or less, will flood large parts of coastal cities, and endanger many species of plants and animals. To survive, we must listen to the Earth, and observe her travails, because they are increasingly our own.

Now a days, more and more consumers are using credit cards for both purchases and payments. Extortion, or as we like to call it, shakedowns, are becoming common and involve getting the card details in exchange for cash. Due to basic monitoring in the various types of sectors, safety measures and safeguards are mostly desirable. We have surveyed various algorithms for enhancing credit card security. Our proposed approach uses Naïve Bayes, decision tree, and PBT (Power Boosting Tree Classifier) algorithms to train the model and to keep more accurate outcomes and streamline transactions. Simulation results show that PBT performed optimally for all data proportions compared to other algorithms. Comparing PBT to Random Forest, AdaBoost, and Decision Tree, it was successful in achieving greater accuracy and shorter execution times. PBT outperformed RF, NB, and D-Tree techniques in terms of Precision, Recall, and F-Measure, with a maximum accuracy of 99%.