Tesi sul tema "Market"
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Löbler, Helge, Hans Kjellberg, Kaj Storbacka, Melissa Akaka, Jennifer Chandler, John Finch, Sara Lindeman, Katy Mason, Janet McColl-Kennedy e Suvi Nenonen. "Market futures, future markets". Universitätsbibliothek Leipzig, 2017. http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bsz:15-qucosa-218378.
Testo completoBørter, Martin. "Market Risk in Turbulent Markets". Thesis, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Department of Mathematical Sciences, 2009. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:no:ntnu:diva-9871.
Testo completoIn this thesis we study market risk in turbulent markets over different risk horizons. We construct portfolios which represent possible investments for a life assurance fund. The portfolios consist of equities, fixed income instruments, cash positions and interest rate derivatives. Today, the most commonly used metrics for market risk are Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES), and they will be central. We introduce necessary theory from quantitative finance related to asset price dynamics and security pricing. Further, interest rate related instruments are handled by the LIBOR Market Model (LMM), while equity prices are modeled as geometric Brownian motions. We use implied volatilities for instruments where they are available, and historical for the rest. We implement a risk model and make daily and quarterly market risk estimates between 2000-2008 for the portfolios. We choose some central events from the last quarter of 2008, a critical phase of the ongoing financial crisis, and analyze how the portfolios and the corresponding risk estimates are affected. Comparison of the portfolio losses against risk estimates allows us to evaluate the reliability of the broadly adopted model.
Lorusso, Valentina. "Market making and dealer markets". Thesis, Imperial College London, 2016. http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/49240.
Testo completoBall, Catherine. "Local Markets : Competition and Market Structure". Thesis, University of East Anglia, 2010. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.527635.
Testo completoHuang, Yao. "Market Sentiments and the Housing Markets". Diss., Virginia Tech, 2020. http://hdl.handle.net/10919/97518.
Testo completoDoctor of Philosophy
This paper has three chapters. In the first chapter, we develop a measure of housing sentiment for 24 cities in China by parsing through newspaper articles from 2006 to 2017. Two sentiment index were created using text mining method based on keywords matching and machine learning respectively.We find that the sentiment index has strong predictive power for future house prices even after controlling for past price changes and macroeconomic fundamentals. The index leads price movements by nearly 9 months, and it is highly correlated with other survey expectations measures that come with a significant time lag. In contrast, we find much weaker feedback coming from past prices to current sentiment. In the second chapter, we show that short term house price movement is predictable by solely using newspaper and historical price change. The accuracy of the prediction could be up to 0.96 for out of sample prediction. We first use a text mining method to transfer all the text information into numerical vector space, which is able to represent the extracted full information contained in a text. Then by adopting machine learning models of Neural networks, SVM, and random forest, we classified the newspaper into 1 (up) and 0 (down) group and constructed an index as the mean label accordingly. In the last chapter, by merging the Fannie Mae loan performance data with the sentiment index constructed from newspaper as well as the macro variables about local market, we got empirical results to show that some people are forward-looking when deciding default and a positive sentiment ( anticipated house price appreciation) will lower the Z score of probability of default by 0.028. We found that during the recession period, people access more information when they try to default, on top of the traditional econ conditions and historical house price, they also consider the future house price change. Moreover, borrowers with high income, high home value, and high FICO scores tend to pay more attention to future price change. However, for those who are less experienced in this game (first time home buyer), they only pay attention to the historical price change during the recession period.
Liu, Dongqing. "Market-making behavior in futures markets /". For electronic version search Digital dissertations database. Restricted to UC campuses. Access is free to UC campus dissertations, 2002. http://uclibs.org/PID/11984.
Testo completoRahman, Rizwan Tanvir. "Market integrity issues in financial markets". Thesis, The University of Sydney, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/2123/12552.
Testo completoBaumann, Dominique Cristian. "Market coupling in the power markets". reponame:Repositório Institucional do FGV, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/10438/12174.
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The thesis analyses the European Unions’ effort to create an integrated pan-European electricity market based on “market coupling” as the proposed allocation mechanism for interconnector transfer capacity. Thus, the thesis’ main focus is if market coupling leads to a price convergence in interlinked markets and how it affects the behavior of electricity price data. The applied research methods are a qualitative, structured literature review and a quantitative analysis of electricity price data. The quantitative analysis relies on descriptive statistics of absolute price differentials and on a Cointegration analysis according to Engle & Granger (1987)’s two step approach. Main findings are that implicit auction mechanisms such as market coupling are more efficient than explicit auctions. Especially the method of price coupling leads to a price convergence in involved markets, to social welfare gains and reduces market power of producers, as shown on the example of the TLC market coupling. The market coupling initiative between Germany and Denmark, on the other hand, is evaluated as less successful and illustrates the complexity and difficulties of implementing market coupling initiatives. The cointegration analysis shows that the time series were already before the coupling date cointegrated, but the statistical significance increased. The thesis suggests that market coupling leads to a price convergence of involved markets and thus functions as method to create a single, integrated European electricity market.
A dissertação analisa o esforço dos sindicatos europeus para criar um mercado pan- europeu de electricidade integrada baseada em 'mercados combinados', como o mecanismo de alocação de capacidade de transferência de energia entre diferentes sistemas. Assim, o foco principal do estudo é se a integração do mercado leva a uma convergência de preços nos mercados interligados, e como isso afeta o comportamento dos preços de energia elétrica. Os métodos de investigação são uma revisão bibliográfica estruturada qualitativa e uma análise quantitativa de dados de preços de energia elétrica. A análise quantitativa se baseia em estatísticas descritivas das diferenças de preços absolutos e em uma análise de cointegração de acordo com a abordagem de Engle e Granger (1987). As principais conclusões são que os mecanismos de leilões implícitos, tais como a integração de mercado são mais eficientes que os leilões explícitos. Especialmente, o método de acoplamento de preços leva a uma convergência de preços nos mercados envolvidos, a ganhos de bem-estar social e reduz a o poder dos produtores no mercado, como mostra o exemplo da integração mercado TLC. A iniciativa mercados combinados entre a Alemanha ea Dinamarca, por outro lado, é avaliada como de menor sucesso e ilustra a complexidade e as dificuldades de implementação de iniciativas de integração de mercado. A análise de cointegração mostra que as séries temporais já estavam cointegradas antes da data de integração, mas a significância estatística aumentou. A tese sugere que a integração do mercado leva a uma convergência dos preços dos mercados envolvidos e, portanto, funciona como método para criar um mercado de eletricidade único e integrado na Europa.
Swift, Jonathan Stuart. "The relationship between market culture and market language : British executives in overseas markets". Thesis, University of Liverpool, 1997. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.266310.
Testo completoNieuwland, Frederik Gertruda Maria Carolus. "Speculative markets dynamics an econometric analysis of stock market and foreign exchange market dynamics /". Proefschrift, Maastricht : Maastricht : Universitaire Pers Maastricht ; University Library, Maastricht University [Host], 1993. http://arno.unimaas.nl/show.cgi?fid=6219.
Testo completoCoronado, Saleh Francisco Javier. "Market structure and regulation in pharmaceutical markets". Doctoral thesis, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, 2010. http://hdl.handle.net/10803/7414.
Testo completoKang, Kyeong-Hoon. "Market structures and competition in system markets". College Park, Md. : University of Maryland, 2004. http://hdl.handle.net/1903/1698.
Testo completoThesis research directed by: Economics. Title from t.p. of PDF. Includes bibliographical references. Published by UMI Dissertation Services, Ann Arbor, Mich. Also available in paper.
Das, Sanmay. "Intelligent Market-Making in Artificial Financial Markets". Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2003. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/5570.
Testo completoStork, Christopher Oliver. "Microstructure of option markets without market makers". Thesis, London Metropolitan University, 2000. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.343195.
Testo completoIshii, Ryosuke. "Optimal Trading in Markets with Market Impact". Kyoto University, 2010. http://hdl.handle.net/2433/120724.
Testo completoLe, Coq Chloé. "Quantity choices and market power in electricity markets". Doctoral thesis, Handelshögskolan i Stockholm, Samhällsekonomi (S), 2003. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:hhs:diva-566.
Testo completoDiss. Stockholm : Handelshögskolan, 2003 [4], iii, [1] s., s. 1-6: sammanfattning, s. 7-119, [5] s.: 4 uppsatser
Hildebrandt, Kurtis. "Market dominance and innovation in computer software markets". Thesis, National Library of Canada = Bibliothèque nationale du Canada, 1999. http://www.collectionscanada.ca/obj/s4/f2/dsk1/tape7/PQDD_0018/MQ47948.pdf.
Testo completoLe, Coq Chloé. "Quantity choices and market power in electricity markets /". Stockholm : Economic Research Institute, Stockholm School of Economics (EFI), 2003. http://www.hhs.se/efi/summary/615.htm.
Testo completoKabaca, Serdar. "Essays on labour market fluctuations in emerging markets". Thesis, University of British Columbia, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/2429/45251.
Testo completoWan, Hakman Alberick. "On the agent market model of stock markets". Thesis, University of Sunderland, 1999. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.288016.
Testo completoDavis, James E. (James Edward) 1962. "Airline market share modeling in originating city markets". Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1989. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/14176.
Testo completoIncludes bibliographical references (leaves 129-130).
by James Edward Davis.
M.S.
Aidov, Alexandre. "Three Essays on Market Depth in Futures Markets". FIU Digital Commons, 2013. http://digitalcommons.fiu.edu/etd/974.
Testo completoNee, Matteo. "Suture-Type Fiducial Marker Oncology Market Entry Strategy". Case Western Reserve University School of Graduate Studies / OhioLINK, 2019. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=case1535378317004445.
Testo completoMcLean, Victoria. "Analysing competitive markets through consumer choice : a model for competitive market analysis and related market study". Thesis, Southampton Solent University, 1998. http://ssudl.solent.ac.uk/2448/.
Testo completoLöbler, Helge, Hans Kjellberg, Kaj Storbacka, Melissa Akaka, Jennifer Chandler, John Finch, Sara Lindeman, Katy Mason, Janet McColl-Kennedy e Suvi Nenonen. "Market futures, future markets: research directions in the study of markets". Sage, 2012. https://ul.qucosa.de/id/qucosa%3A15286.
Testo completoRoberts, John Spencer. "High Frequency Market Dynamics an Analysis of Market Depth and Quoting Behaviors in Crude Oil Futures Markets". Thesis, University of Maryland, College Park, 2018. http://pqdtopen.proquest.com/#viewpdf?dispub=10743410.
Testo completoMost derivative and equity transactions occur in electronic order driven markets and depend on a limit order book. Yet many questions remain regarding the way traders interact with the limit order book, especially the role of algorithmic and high frequency trading. This dissertation investigates how the limit order book evolves over time. We study the nature of fleeting liquidity and flash quotes to deepen our understanding of the way modern markets operate.
This research is based on raw message data sold by the exchange and contains every update to the limit order book linked to the top ten levels. We rebuild the limit order book and define quote segments to divide the day into non-overlapping intervals based on observed changes in the best quotes and the bid-ask spread. We propose a novel way to visualize dynamics of the limit order book by combining changes in best quotes and visible depth. Using the limit order book and quote segments, we define a measure for offered liquidity and then a measure to capture the responsiveness on both sides of the market during sub-second intervals. Flash quotes are identified and are combined with measures of offered liquidity to study why such behavior is observed in the market.
We find empirical evidence that movement in market depth explains movement in the bid-ask spread. We show how combining movements in best quotes and visible depth provides a clearer picture of the direction of the market. Evidence is presented that breaks down the dynamics of offered liquidity into both trade response and prior movement of depth. We find standard measures of market liquidity, such as the bid-ask spread, can appear normal while responsiveness can remain elevated following a major market movement.
Depth data assists with best execution, but this research highlights alternative uses that are important to consider when participating in modern markets. The observed dynamics of the limit order book contain relevant information that need to be captured in a full discussion of market liquidity.
Ahmadi, Zahra. "Market orientation and public housing companies in the Swedish declining market". Licentiate thesis, KTH, Bygg- och fastighetsekonomi, 2016. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-182043.
Testo completoQC 20160215
Godby, Robert William. "The effect of market power in emission permit markets". Thesis, National Library of Canada = Bibliothèque nationale du Canada, 1997. http://www.collectionscanada.ca/obj/s4/f2/dsk2/tape16/PQDD_0011/NQ30139.pdf.
Testo completoNeumann, Dirk Georg. "Market engineering a structured design process for electronic markets". Karlsruhe Univ.-Verl. Karlsruhe, 2004. http://d-nb.info/985794046/04.
Testo completoJia, Haiying. "Market conditions and the functioning of metal futures markets". Thesis, City University London, 2006. http://openaccess.city.ac.uk/8467/.
Testo completoBastos, Paulo R. "Unionised labour markets, product market competition and economic integration". Thesis, University of Nottingham, 2007. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.444659.
Testo completoCarmo, João Pedro Rodrigues do. "Modeling stock markets through the reconstruction of market processes". Master's thesis, Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão, 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/15048.
Testo completoExistem duas maneira possíveis de interpretar a aparente natureza estocástica dos mercados financeiros: a Hipótese do mercado eficiente (HME) e um conjunto de factos estilizados que conduzem o comportamento dos mercados. Apresentamos evidência para alguns dos factos estilizados como a existência de um fenómeno de memória na volatilidade dos preços a curto prazo, um comportamento em lei de potência e dependências não lineares nos retornos. Considerando isto, construímos um modelo do mercado através de cadeias de Markov. Em seguida, desenvolvemos um algoritmo que pode ser generalizado para qualquer alfabeto de N símbolos e cadeia de Markov de comprimento K. Com esta ferramenta, somos capazes de mostrar que é, pelo menos, sempre melhor que um modelo completamente aleatório como o Passeio Aleatório. O código está escrito em MATLAB e é mantido no GitHub.
There are two possible ways of interpreting the seemingly stochastic nature of financial markets: the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) and a set of stylized facts that drive the behavior of the markets. We show evidence for some of the stylized facts such as memory-like phenomena in price volatility in the short term, a power-law behavior and non-linear dependencies on the returns. Given this, we construct a model of the market using Markov chains. Then, we develop an algorithm that can be generalized for any N-symbol alphabet and K-length Markov chain. Using this tool, we are able to show that it's, at least, always better than a completely random model such as a Random Walk. The code is written in MATLAB and maintained in GitHub.
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
Pavelson, Brit. "Market values : Lessons in decoration from post-Soviet markets". Thesis, Konstfack, Institutionen för design, inredningsarkitektur och visuell kommunikation (DIV), 2020. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:konstfack:diva-7711.
Testo completoSchmidt, David E. "Capital markets and the market structure of foreign investments". Thesis, Aston University, 2010. http://publications.aston.ac.uk/15787/.
Testo completoNeumann, Dirk Georg. "Market engineering a structured design process for electronic markets /". Karlsruhe : Universitätsverlag, 2007. http://www.uvka.de/univerlag/volltexte/2007/265/.
Testo completoCho, Young-Hye. "Time-varying betas and market microstructures in option markets /". Diss., Connect to a 24 p. preview or request complete full text in PDF format. Access restricted to UC campuses, 2000. http://wwwlib.umi.com/cr/ucsd/fullcit?p9981964.
Testo completoMahoney, Daniel. "Demand, Market Structure, Entry, and Exit in Airline Markets". Thesis, University of Oregon, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/1794/18338.
Testo completoLundgren, Jens. "Market liberalization and market integration : Essays on the Nordic electricity market". Doctoral thesis, Umeå universitet, Nationalekonomi, 2012. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-61605.
Testo completoNishi, Hirofumi. "Market Efficiency, Arbitrage and the NYMEX Crude Oil Futures Market". Thesis, University of North Texas, 2016. https://digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc862846/.
Testo completoCheung, Ming-yan William. "Market microstructure of an order driven market". Click to view the E-thesis via HKUTO, 2005. http://sunzi.lib.hku.hk/hkuto/record/B3203782X.
Testo completoCheung, Ming-yan William, e 張明恩. "Market microstructure of an order driven market". Thesis, The University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong), 2005. http://hub.hku.hk/bib/B3203782X.
Testo completoJackson, Andrew Rhys. "Market participant behaviour and equity market dynamics". Thesis, London Business School (University of London), 2003. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.408644.
Testo completoEun, Dong Jae. "Market imperfections and market-based policy instruments". Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/109014.
Testo completoCataloged from PDF version of thesis.
Includes bibliographical references (pages 149-152).
The first chapter discusses procurement auction mechanisms under the political constraint that the contractor is in effect protected from ex-post loss. Many construction procurers who use first price auctions eliminate abnormally low bids in order to reduce the probability of ex-post bid adjustment. The Korean government systematizes such a bid screening process by setting a stochastic cutoff under which bids are disregarded. This chapter builds an auction model with ex-post bid adjustment and establishes that introducing a stochastic cutoff indeed decreases the probability of ex-post bid adjustment when the contractor is protected from ex-post loss. Data on Korean public procurement auctions for paving work is used to structurally estimate model parameters and assess welfare implications. Counterfactual analyses indicate that, if the Korean government were to switch to the usual first price auction, (1) the probability of bid adjustments triggered by cost overruns would significantly increase, from 14 percent to 88 percent; (2) the resulting social cost increase due to bid adjustment processes would amount to at least 360 percent of cost savings from the first price auction's ability to find an efficient firm; and therefore (3) the total social cost increase would be 7 percent. Finally, a mechanism design approach is employed to characterize an optimal mechanism under a no loss constraint and to provide a measure of efficiency loss associated with the two forms of auctions. The second chapter quantifies consumers' cognitive costs in the context of fast-food purchases. Most fast-food burger chains set different effective add-on (fries and a soda) prices in "meals" across burger items. This means that sophisticated consumers, who buy, for example, a sandwich-only and a meal, may try rearranging the add-ons across burgers in hopes of lowering their payment. This feature provides a unique opportunity to study consumers' behavior, when a firm engages in price obfuscation-charging multiple prices for an identical product and requiring consumers to incur cognitive costs before finding lowest price quotes. Using sales data of a Korean local fast-food chain, this chapter first presents descriptive evidence that consumers do respond to an opportunity to lower expenses by rearranging add-on items. Then it develops and estimates an optimal model of calculation and rearrangement where a consumer incurs a unit of cognitive cost for every effective add-on price of a burger she calculates. The third chapter documents how a persistent adverse selection problem can be eventually mitigated by market force. In 2010, a prominent conglomerate entered as a market-maker in the Korean online used car market, which had long been considered a "market for lemons". In order to alleviate the asymmetric information problem, the firm introduced a costly quality signaling mechanism: in its online platform, the company certifies at a fee the car's inspection report mandated to be provided to consumers but deemed often unreliable. This chapter examines the effect of certification on the sale price and the days on the market. It also investigates which vehicles' inspection reports are more likely to be certified.
by Dong Jae Eun.
Ph. D.
Bonleu, Antoine. "Housing market regulation and labor market regulation". Thesis, Aix-Marseille, 2016. http://www.theses.fr/2016AIXM2009/document.
Testo completoThe first contribution studies the complementarities between the strength of social networks and the stringency of procedural formalism. While procedural formalism increases the cost of legal dispute resolution between landlords and tenants, social networks allow conflicts to be solved without recourse to justice. Procedural formalism is thus a way to provide a market advantage to local individuals embedded in dense local social networks at the expense of nonlocal agents without access to such networks.The second contribution deals with the importance of the sun on the demand for regulation in the rental market. Southern European countries with good climate amenities are attractive by their mildness of life. This potential immigration increases the pressure on the rental market. To reduce it, individuals in Southern Europe develop complementarities between social capital and local regulations. This strategy explains a Mediterranean equilibrium characterized by high levels of local social capital and procedural formalism. Conversely, the lack of attractiveness of countries with low climate amenities leads to an Anglo-Saxon and Scandinavian equilibrium with opposite features.The third contribution explains the support for labor market regulation by the presence of regulations on the rental market. When the rental market is very regulated, landlords screen applicants with regard to their ability to pay the rent. Protecting regular jobs offers a second-best technology to sort workers, thereby increasing the rental market size. We provide a model where non-employed workers demand protected jobs despite unemployment and the share of short-term jobs increase
Subramaniam, Thiagarajah Natchie. "Essays in Market Power Mitigation and Supply Function Equilibrium". Diss., The University of Arizona, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/321578.
Testo completoRost, Christian, e Erik Ydrén. "Profit for the poor : Sustainable Market Development in BOP Markets". Thesis, Jönköping University, JIBS, Business Administration, 2006. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:hj:diva-361.
Testo completoThere are 4 billion poor living on 2 dollars or less per day that make up the bottom of the economic pyramid (BOP). If a company calculates their aggregated purchasing power they could be a huge and profitable market.
By studying the roles of the different actors and their preconditions in BOP markets the purpose with this thesis is to find out how the private sector can pursue a sustainable market development strategy at the bottom of the economic pyramid and if it really will help to reduce poverty.
By using a qualitative study, this thesis interviews each actor in the Mexican market except the government. Also a resume from a case study presents Unilever’s operations in Indonesia.
The theory suggests that the actors in the markets should create partnerships that lead to a social transformation and improvement in the lives of the poor. Therefore this thesis concentrates on sustainable development the entrepreneurs, government, customers and the private enterprises role in a BOP-strategy.
From the field study it is clear that it exists a huge informal system in Mexico which makes it hard for an efficient market to work. Our interviews with the NGOs shows that they have access to huge networks, work with marketbased solutions but are dependant on financial contributions from government and private sector. Both private enterprises show that they are working with both process and product innovations for the BOP-market. For example they both sell small sachets of shampoo that are affordable for the poor and they are also cooperating with local distributors to access all the small supermarkets across the country they are present in.
Essential for pursuing a BOP-strategy is that a company innovates for satisfying a need at a lower cost. They should also work with partners to get the local knowledge that they do not have themselves. The study can not come to a conclusion if the strategy under study will reduce poverty although there is a clear link between sustainability and poverty reduction. The point with sustainability in the consumer markets is that the products and services offered increases the disposable income, the choices, and the self identity of the per-son living in poverty. Only then can a BOP-strategy develop together with its market, resulting in a sustainable market development strategy, which, when pursued responsibly can lead to a triple-win situation for the poor, private enterprises and the environment.
Rost, Christian, e Erik Ydrén. "Profir for the poor : Sustainable market development in BOP-markets". Thesis, Jönköping University, JIBS, EMM (Entrepreneurship, Marketing, Management), 2006. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:hj:diva-549.
Testo completoThere are 4 billion poor living on 2 dollars or less per day that make up the bottom of the economic pyramid (BOP). If a company calculates their aggregated purchasing power they could be a huge and profitable market.
By studying the roles of the different actors and their pre-conditions in BOP-markets the purpose with this thesis is to find out how the private sector can pursue a sustainable market development strategy at the bottom of the economic pyramid and if it really will help to reduce poverty.
Constantatos, Christos. "Barriers to entry and market coverage in vertically-differentiated markets". Thesis, University of Ottawa (Canada), 1991. http://hdl.handle.net/10393/7803.
Testo completoKaram, Philippe Doumit. "Dynamic asset pricing models with incomplete markets and market frictions". Thesis, National Library of Canada = Bibliothèque nationale du Canada, 1998. http://www.collectionscanada.ca/obj/s4/f2/dsk3/ftp04/nq22471.pdf.
Testo completoOrtez, Amador Mario Amado. "Forecasting volatility in agricultural commodities markets considering market structural breaks". Thesis, Kansas State University, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/2097/18995.
Testo completoDepartment of Agricultural Economics
Glynn Tonsor
This decade has seen movements in commodity futures markets never seen before. There are many factors that have intensified price movements and volatility behavior. Those factors likely altering supply and demand include governmental policy within and outside of the U.S, weather shocks, geopolitical conflicts, food safety concerns etc. Whatever the reasons are for price movements it is clear that the volatility behavior in commodity markets constantly change, and risk managers need to use current and efficient tools to mitigate price risk. This study identified market structural breaks of realized volatility in corn, wheat, soybeans, live cattle, feeder cattle and lean hogs futures markets. Furthermore, this study analyzes the forecasting performance of implied volatility, historical volatility, a composite approach and a naïve approach as forecasters of realized volatility. The forecasting performance of these methods was analyzed in the full period of time of our weekly data from January 1995 to April 2014 and in each identified market regime for each commodity. Previous research has analyzed forecasting performance of implied volatility, a time series alternative and a composite method. However, to the best of my knowledge, they have not worried about market structural breaks in the data that might influence the performance of the mentioned forecasting methods in different periods of time. Overall, results indicate that indeed there are multiple market structural breaks present in the volatility datasets across all six commodities. We found differences in the forecasting performance of the analyzed methods when individual market regimes were analyzed. There seems to be evidence that corroborates the idea in the literature about the superiority of implied volatility over a historical volatility, a composite approach and a naïve approach. Additionally, implied volatility encompassed all the information contained in the historical volatility and the naïve measure across each identified market regime in all six commodities. Our results show that when both implied volatility and historical volatility are available, the benefit of combining those measures into a composite forecasting approach is very limited. Our results hold true for a short term 1 week ahead realized volatility forecast. It would be of interest to see how results vary for longer forecasting time horizons.