Letteratura scientifica selezionata sul tema "Future operating performance"

In this study we test the argument that information asymmetry and the problems of adverse selection provide incentives for managers to use accounting choices to signal relatively higher future prospects. Specifically, we contend that firms use accelerated depreciation to credibly signal higher future earnings and cash flows, consistent with signaling theory. Compared to straight-line depreciation, accelerated depreciation reduces earnings in the earlier years of asset lives and produces more variability in earnings. Despite these drawbacks, hundreds of firms voluntarily use accelerated depreciation for at least some of their depreciable assets. Our results indicate that the use of accelerated depreciation foreshadows higher future earnings and cash flows for horizons of one, two, and three years ahead.

The operating microscope is a fixture of modern surgical facilities, and it is a critically important factor in the success of many of the most complex and difficult surgical interventions used in medicine today. The rise of this key surgical tool reflects advances in understanding the principles of optics and vision that have occurred over centuries. The development of reading spectacles in the late 13th century led to the construction of early compound microscopes in the 16th and 17th centuries by Lippershey, Janssen, Galileo, Hooke, and others. Perhaps surprisingly, Leeuwenhoek's simple microscopes of this era offered improved performance over his contemporaries' designs. The intervening years saw improvements that reduced the spherical and chromatic aberrations present in compound microscopes. By the late 19th century, Carl Zeiss and Ernst Abbe ushered the compound microscope into the beginnings of the modern era of commercial design and production. The introduction of the microscope into the operating room by Nylén in 1921 initiated a revolution in surgical practice that gained momentum throughout the 1950s with multiple refinements, the introduction of the Zeiss OPMI series, and Kurze's application of the microscope to neurosurgery in 1957. Many of the refinements of the last 50 years have greatly improved the handling and practical operation of the surgical microscope, considerations which are equally important to its optical performance. Today's sophisticated operating microscopes allow for advanced real-time angiographic and tumor imaging. In this paper the authors discuss what might be found in the operating rooms of tomorrow.

This paper examines the choice of performance measures in performance-vested (p-v) equity compensation and its relation with future performance. Based on a sample of the S&P 500 industrial firms which granted p-v equity compensation to executives during 2006-2008, this paper presents several interesting results. While annual bonuses and p-v equity compensation both link payout to achievement of performance targets, firms use performance measures in different ways for these two types of compensation. Compared to annual bonuses, p-v equity compensation features fewer numbers of performance measures and a higher tendency to use market measures. The results of logistic regressions show that consistent with the Informativeness Hypothesis, the likelihood of a performance measure’s usage in p-v equity compensation decreases with the relative noise of the measure. The choice of performance measures is also associated with financial performance, business complexity, and growth opportunities. Importantly, I find that firms choosing cash or non-financial measures for p-v equity compensation have worse operating and stock performance in subsequent years and firms using a sales measure for p-v equity compensation have better operating performance subsequently. This paper provides useful insights into academia and practice on the design and consequence of p-v equity compensation.

Since the introduction of containerization in 1956, its growth has led to a corresponding growth in the role of container seaborne traffic in world trade. To respond to such growth, requirements for setting up the common standards in various kinds of container harbor equipment, and identifying performance indicators to assess container handling equipment performance have increased. Although the operating systems in ship-to-shore cranes may be different at each container terminal, the four main movements are the same: hoist, trolley, gantry, and boom. By determining in this work the hour metrics for each movement, it was possible to define the key performance indicators to be adopted and assess ship-to-shore crane performance. The research results identified that the mean time between failures is decreasing because of the accumulation of long-lasting heavyweight operations, while the number of maintenance of machine parts incidents and man-hours is steadily increasing. The key performance indicators offer a management tool to guide future ship-to-shore container crane inspection and the results provide useful insights for future container crane equipment operation improvements.

It is foreseeable that recovery boiler particulate emission limits in the United States and Canada will continue to get more stringent with time. Because of this, continued improvement of emission control equipment, as well as a better understanding of how operating parameters affect performance, are necessary. Although electrostatic precipitators (ESPs) are often viewed as a mature technology, many improvements in ESP technology continue to be developed. In recent years, academic efforts have improved the understanding of recovery boiler operating conditions on ESP performance. Additionally, advancements in materials, power supplies, and design continue to improve the efficiency and reliability of ESPs. This paper discusses how recovery boiler and electrostatic precipitator (ESP) operating factors affect ESP performance based on process simulations and practical experience, and how these learnings can be implemented to improve future operation of existing ESPs.

To meet the twin objectives of limiting climate change and providing affordable energy to a growing and urbanised population, natural gas must adapt its role in a changing energy market and remain competitive with other sources of energy longer term. Santos is ensuring its role in this future by incorporating technology into its existing operations to improve energy efficiency, reduce operating costs and reduce emissions. The declining cost of new technology, historic production data and analytics create opportunities to improve efficiency in existing facilities. As new technologies such as variable renewable power generation increase their market penetration, the role of gas and the opportunities for gas producers are also changing. Santos is investigating several projects that incorporate new technology and leverage these market changes. These projects include: • conversion of existing operations to run partially or fully on renewable power to reduce fuel consumption, reduce emissions from Santos’ operations, improve reliability and make more product available to the market; • using predictive analytics to improve well performance; • using technology to improve logistics performance; and • leveraging Santos’ existing infrastructure footprint to develop commercial-scale gas, renewable and storage hybrid power projects.

The regulatory framework of many countries allows the upward revaluation of assets. Previous studies on the association of asset revaluation and future performance in Australia (Barth and Clinch, 1998), U.K. (Aboody, Barth and Kasznik, 1999) and Hong Kong (Jaggi and Tsui, 2001) have shown that upward asset revaluations are positively associated with the firm’s operating performance, suggesting that asset revaluations are value relevant. This study extends the previous research by focusing on the New Zealand environment with recent data to examine the association of upward asset revaluation and future operating performance. There is no obvious evidence indicating that upward revaluations are associated with operating performance in New Zealand. Our market assessments show that current year asset revaluations are related to share prices and returns, but are not statistically significant.

The regulatory framework of many countries allows the upward revaluation of assets. Previous studies on the association of asset revaluation and future performance in Australia (Barth and Clinch, 1998), U.K. (Aboody, Barth and Kasznik, 1999) and Hong Kong (Jaggi and Tsui, 2001) have shown that upward asset revaluations are positively associated with the firm’s operating performance, suggesting that asset revaluations are value relevant. This study extends the previous research by focusing on the New Zealand environment with recent data to examine the association of upward asset revaluation and future operating performance. There is no obvious evidence indicating that upward revaluations are associated with operating performance in New Zealand. Our market assessments show that current year asset revaluations are related to share prices and returns, but are not statistically significant.

Various solutions have been proposed to “fix” performance management (PM) over the last several decades. Pulakos, Mueller Hanson, Arad, and Moye (2015) have presented a holistic approach to improving PM in organizations. Although this approach addresses several key elements related to the social context of PM, namely the buy-in of organizational stakeholders, timely and regular feedback, and future-directed feedback, we believe that several robust findings from the PM research literature could further improve this process. Are Pulakos et al. looking at the forest but missing the trees? In the following commentary, we offer several reasons that performance judgments and perhaps even informal ratings are still operating and occurring in the proposed holistic system. Therefore, advancements in other areas of PM research may offer additional ways to fix PM.

S tím, jak se neustále vyvíjejí nové technologie pro energeticky náročná průmyslová odvětví, stávající zařízení postupně zaostávají v efektivitě a produktivitě. Tvrdá konkurence na trhu a legislativa v oblasti životního prostředí nutí tato tradiční zařízení k ukončení provozu a k odstavení. Zlepšování procesu a projekty modernizace jsou zásadní v udržování provozních výkonů těchto zařízení. Současné přístupy pro zlepšování procesů jsou hlavně: integrace procesů, optimalizace procesů a intenzifikace procesů. Obecně se v těchto oblastech využívá matematické optimalizace, zkušeností řešitele a provozní heuristiky. Tyto přístupy slouží jako základ pro zlepšování procesů. Avšak, jejich výkon lze dále zlepšit pomocí moderní výpočtové inteligence. Účelem této práce je tudíž aplikace pokročilých technik umělé inteligence a strojového učení za účelem zlepšování procesů v energeticky náročných průmyslových procesech. V této práci je využit přístup, který řeší tento problém simulací průmyslových systémů a přispívá následujícím: (i)Aplikace techniky strojového učení, která zahrnuje jednorázové učení a neuro-evoluci pro modelování a optimalizaci jednotlivých jednotek na základě dat. (ii) Aplikace redukce dimenze (např. Analýza hlavních komponent, autoendkodér) pro vícekriteriální optimalizaci procesu s více jednotkami. (iii) Návrh nového nástroje pro analýzu problematických částí systému za účelem jejich odstranění (bottleneck tree analysis – BOTA). Bylo také navrženo rozšíření nástroje, které umožňuje řešit vícerozměrné problémy pomocí přístupu založeného na datech. (iv) Prokázání účinnosti simulací Monte-Carlo, neuronové sítě a rozhodovacích stromů pro rozhodování při integraci nové technologie procesu do stávajících procesů. (v) Porovnání techniky HTM (Hierarchical Temporal Memory) a duální optimalizace s několika prediktivními nástroji pro podporu managementu provozu v reálném čase. (vi) Implementace umělé neuronové sítě v rámci rozhraní pro konvenční procesní graf (P-graf). (vii) Zdůraznění budoucnosti umělé inteligence a procesního inženýrství v biosystémech prostřednictvím komerčně založeného paradigmatu multi-omics.

碩士
元智大學
會計學程
99
The purpose of this study is to examine the relation between real earnings management and future operating performance, and to compare the future performance implication of real earnings management with that of accrual earnings management. I hypothesize that the firms engaging in earnings management to meet earnings threshold will have better future operating performance compared to those miss the threshold, based on the belief that the investors will punish the earnings management behavior if they notice the negative earnings reversing effect. Firms can conduct earnings management by doing real transactions or using accrual adjustment. The former costs higher, and has longer-period effect compared to the latter. So based on cost-benefit effect, I hypothesize that the firms conducting real earnings management should have longer and better future performance improvement compare to those conducting accrual earnings management. This study adopts Modified Jones Model to measure the accrual-based earnings management, and Roychowdhury (2006) to measure real earnings management. The empirical results show that firms use real earnings management to meet earnings threshold have significantly better future operating performance compared to firms that miss the target. The finding also shows that firms conducting real earnings management have longer performance improvement than those doing accrual earnings management.

碩士
國立中正大學
財務金融研究所
103
In this study, TEJ Database from 1995 to 2012 non-financial, fuel and energy industry, GTSM, TWSE, GTSM-Delisted, TWSE -Delisted as samples. This study takes both univariate control-firm approach and regression approach, to understand whether a firm’s dividend change conveys information about its future operating performance, and a firm’s accrual quality will make a difference with regard to the strength of information conveyance of dividend changes to the future operation performance. The total current accruals, a year ago, current, after a year of cash flow, the amount of change in net sales, fixed assets variables, calculated accrual quality. Based on the above, the results of the study found that abnormal changes in dividend convey future operating performance. As well as poor corporate governance, low accrual quality with a positive change in the dividend to strengthen convey the message of the future operating performance, but low accrual quality with a negative change in the dividend does not strengthen convey a negative future abnormal operating performance.

Although most mining companies utilise systems for slope monitoring, experience indicates that mining operations continue to be surprised by the occurrence of adverse geotechnical events. A comprehensive and robust performance monitoring system is an essential component of slope management in an open pit mining operation. The development of such a system requires considerable expertise to ensure the monitoring system is effective and reliable. Written by instrumentation experts and geotechnical practitioners, Guidelines for Slope Performance Monitoring is an initiative of the Large Open Pit (LOP) Project and the fifth book in the Guidelines for Open Pit Slope Design series. Its 10 chapters present the process of establishing and operating a slope monitoring system; the fundamentals of pit slope monitoring instrumentation and methods; monitoring system operation; data acquisition, management and analysis; and utilising and communicating monitoring results. The implications of increased automation of mining operations are also discussed, including the future requirements of performance monitoring. Guidelines for Slope Performance Monitoring summarises leading mine industry practice in monitoring system design, implementation, system management, data management and reporting, and provides guidance for engineers, geologists, technicians and others responsible for geotechnical risk management.

AbstractThis chapter moves the discussion of how to design an operation center down a level towards implementation. We present user-centered design (UCD) as a distinct design philosophy to replace user experience (UX) when designing systems like the Water Detection System (WDS). Just like any other component (e.g., electrical system, communications networks), the operator has safe operating conditions, expected error rates, and predictable performance, albeit with a more variable range for the associated metrics. However, analyzing the operator’s capabilities, like any other component in a large system, helps developers create reliable, effective systems that mitigate risks of system failure due to human error in integrated human–machine systems (e.g., air traffic control). With UCD as a design philosophy, we argue that situation awareness (SA) is an effective framework for developing successful UCD systems. SA is an established framework that describes operator performance via their ability to create and maintain a mental model of the information necessary to achieve their task. SA describes performance as a function of the operator’s ability to perceive useful information, comprehend its significance, and predict future system states. Alongside detailed explanations of UCD and SA, this chapter presents further guidance and examples demonstrating how to implement these concepts in real systems.

AbstractThe term ‘digital’ concerns not only technology but also people. This chapter emphasises the necessity of adopting a digital entrepreneurial mindset when operating in a digitised world. The chapter proposes a definition of a digital entrepreneurial mindset that is rooted in cognitive psychology, organisation theory and entrepreneurship literature. We also focus on the five trends that are shaping the digital future: mobile computing, cloud computing, social media, the Internet of Things and Big Data. The chapter discusses the challenges and opportunities that pervasive digitalisation offers for designing new digital business models and changing interactions with customers. Discussing the success stories of Domino’s Tesco and Tate Art Galleries helps to examine data-driven, cloud-enabled, platform-centric business activities, for which developing a digital entrepreneurial mindset is the first step towards success in the digital age. Collectively, the aforementioned cases suggest that businesses that rely on a digital entrepreneurial mindset enjoy better financial performance. Both managers and employees in these companies have shown the inclination and ability to discover, evaluate and exploit opportunities emerging from digital technologies. This chapter also provides a practical guide for entrepreneurs on the steps they can take to encourage a digital entrepreneurial mindset throughout their entire organisations. Finally, we elaborate on the practical implications of adopting a digital entrepreneurial mindset and its impact on society.

AbstractDue to the consistent pressing quest of larger on-chip memories and caches of multicore and manycore architectures, Spin Transfer Torque Magnetic RAM (STT-MRAM or STT-RAM) has been proposed as a promising technology to replace classical SRAMs in near-future devices. Main advantages of STT-RAMs are a considerably higher transistor density and a negligible leakage power compared with SRAM technology. However, the drawback of this technology is the high probability of errors occurring especially in write operations. Such errors are asymmetric and transition-dependent, where 0 → 1 is the most critical one, and is high subjected to the amount and current (voltage) supplied to the memory during the write operation. As a consequence, STT-RAMs present an intrinsic trade-off between energy consumption vs. reliability that needs to be properly tuned w.r.t. the currently running application and its reliability requirement. This chapter proposes FlexRel, an energy-aware reliability improvement architectural scheme for STT-RAM cache memories. FlexRel considers a memory architecture provided with Error Correction Codes (ECCs) and a custom current regulator for the various cache ways and conducts a trade-off between reliability and energy consumption. FlexRel cache controller dynamically profiles the number of 0 → 1 transitions of each individual bit write operation in a cache block and based on that selects the most-suitable cache way and current level to guarantee the necessary error rate threshold (in terms of occurred write errors) while minimizing the energy consumption. We experimentally evaluated the efficiency of FlexRel against the most efficient uniform protection scheme from reliability, energy, area, and performance perspectives. Experimental simulations performed by using gem5 has demonstrated that while FlexRel satisfies the given error rate threshold, it delivers up to 13.2% energy saving. From the area footprint perspective, FlexRel delivers up to 7.9% cache ways’ area saving. Furthermore, the performance overhead of the FlexRel algorithm which changes the traffic patterns of the cache ways during the executions is 1.7%, on average.

AbstractIn July 2012 the ATLAS and CMS experiments announced the discovery of a Higgs boson, confirming the conjecture put forward in the 1960’s. This article briefly traces the history of the Brout-Englert-Higgs mechanism, its impact on the elucidation of the standard model, the design and construction of the ATLAS and CMS experiments, and finally the discovery of the Higgs boson. The article outlines some of the challenges faced during the construction of the Large Hadron Collider and its experiments, and their operation and performance. In particular, recent results relating to the properties and couplings of the Higgs boson will be discussed as well future prospects at the LHC.

Renovating buildings is more useful than ever. Due to future rising energy prices, energy costs in poorly insulated buildings are an important component of operating costs. Another important point is the rapidly growing emissions from the combustion of fossil energy sources. Good insulation in buildings reduces the amount of primary energy and thus, less greenhouse gases are emitted. The renovation potential is high. A large part of the properties consumes more energy than would actually be necessary. Common construction without thermal insulation is responsible for this. It is advisable to invest in renovation, also, in thermal insulation. This will benefit you in two ways. The ancillary (additional) costs will be reduced massively, the living comfort increases and by today's state subsidies in many countries they will make a contribution to the investment costs.

Within the current context of energy, there are several ways to meet the challenges of durable development. Efficiency in energy use, considered to be the fifth energy source, as well as the use of sustainable energy sources represent critical objectives. Nowadays, almost 50% of the total energy consumption in Europe is consumed by building heating and cooling. The current heat demand is mainly covered by conventional energy—fossil fuels. Consequently, there is a significant growth potential for the use of renewable energy sources (RES) in order to produce heat. One can expect in the near future that the energy systems would include a larger percentage of renewable sources, so the increase of the RES share is one of the main objectives of the thermoenergetic field. This chapter approaches heating system typology, the performance indicators used to asses the hybrid heating systems, and at the same time synthetising the assumptions of ensuring the optimum operating conditions.

While aircraft environmental performance has been important since the beginnings of commercial aviation, continuously increasing passenger traffic and a rise in public awareness have made aircraft noise and emissions two of the most pressing issues hampering commercial aviation growth today. The focus of this study is to determine the feasibility of vey-high bypass ratio, geared and contra-rotating aero engines (see figures 2–4) for short range commercial aircraft in terms of economics and environment. This involves optimising the engines’ design point to minimise the direct operating cost and evaluating the economic and environmental impact. The results present a great potential benefit of the geared turbofan compared to high BPR one (baseline) to reduce DOC; however this may involve NOx penalties, that is an increase of 11.6% in comparison to the baseline. The CRTF engine seems to be, at least according to the simulations, a very promising solution in terms of environmental and economical performance. This is one on the series of work that would be carried out using the design tool proposed. Further work on the assessment of more radical turbofans at different economical and environmental scenarios would be published when completed.

Abstract Computational fluid dynamics simulations are conducted to characterize the spatial and temporal characteristics of the flow field inside a Francis turbine operating in the excess load regime. A high-fidelity Large Eddy Simulation (LES) turbulence model is applied to investigate the flow-induced pressure fluctuations in the draft tube of a Francis Turbine. Probes placed alongside the wall and in the center of the draft tube measure the pressure signal in the draft tube, the pressure over the turbine blades, and the power generated to compare against previous studies featuring design point and partial load operating conditions. The excess load is seen during Francis turbines in order to satisfy a spike in the electrical demand. By characterizing the flow field during these conditions, we can find potential problems with running the turbine at excess load and inspire future studies regarding mitigation methods. Our studies found a robust low-pressure region on the edges of turbine blades, which could cause cavitation in the runner region, which would extend through the draft tube, and high magnitude of pressure fluctuations were observed in the center of the draft tube.

his study builds further on the paper presented at Virtus Corporate Governance Conference in May 2020, which explored the suitability and current relevance of board operating models. That paper highlighted challenges relating to the suitability of prevailing board operating models and posited some alternative board governance models as a provocation. While a considerable amount of academic and commercial research focuses on current board issues, performance drivers, etc., there is little apparent futuristic thinking, i.e., consideration of the broader changes that will be likely that could inform, modify, accelerate or possibly negate current thinking on what boards should be doing to be effective

As transportation costs rise, rail stock material improvements are critical to improving efficiency, durability, and performance. Steel wheels have been a consistent part of rail equipment, but it may be time to assess potential other alloys and materials in anticipation of future demands. Strength requirements are steadily increasing with rail car capacity, while weight savings in equipment can reduce fuel costs and/or increase carrying capacity. Herein, the current requirements for railroad wheels are discussed and compared with experimental evaluation of a potential alternative material, austempered ductile iron (ADI). ADI is an attractive wheel material because of its higher strength-to-weight ratio (as compared to steel) and its wear resistance. ADI castings are also typically cheaper to produce than steel. While ADI can meet or exceed the strength of steel components, it is also comparable in ductility and impact strength, so conversion to ADI does not bring additional risk of brittle fracture, as is commonly the case when achieving higher strengths. There are challenges with its implementation, however. AAR certification of new materials is costly and time consuming, so adoption is unlikely until there is a very compelling business case. Heat produced during on-tread braking has the potential to damage the heat-treated structure of ADI. The regular exchange of cars across different sections of track and therefore different managing companies requires that new wheel materials be fully backwards compatible, so alterations in design are severely limited. This paper will take initial steps toward assessing the potential of ADI railroad wheels by investigating the performance of ADI at elevated temperatures, and comparing the results to measured and simulated wheel temperatures.

Since 50% of the electric power in the US is generated by pulverized-coal-fired power plants and 95% of the US fossil fuel reserves are coal, immediate action should be taken to improve coal-fired power plant performance. The DOE has started a program to develop most efficient coal-fired power plants with the goal to reach 60% net power plant efficiency. Present coal-fired power plants are mainly designed and built more than 30 years ago with a net power plant efficiency of about 32%. We should not wait for a general application of a future technology with the potential of reaching the 60% net efficiency level of coal-fired power plants. We must take action today and build more advanced pulverized-coal-fired power plants based on a technology, which has already gained operating experience and is commercially available. This paper shows how such power plants can be built as new units or as units replacing outdated units. A power plant net efficiency of 45% can be achieved even with highly effective emission reduction systems already included. The 40% lower specific coal consumption of these plants over present units reduces also the CO2 discharge by the same magnitude. Coal-fired power plants can also be designed for proving high operating flexibility. They can support the grid system in case of grid disturbances and can also stay at idle operation after full-load rejections for immediate reloading. Therefore, blackouts can be avoided. This paper provides detailed information on how to build such advanced pulverized-coal-fired power plants.

The aim of this paper is to analyze the operational performance of the 5 dominant companies on the non-life insurance market in Republic of North Macedonia. As input in the analysis, the quarterly data for the 2009-2019 period is included for the key indicators such as the gross written premium (GWP), the gross liquidated damages, the number of insurance contracts and settled claims as well as the operating costs of the companies. These variables are observed through OLS (Ordinary Least Squares) regression analysis and VAR (Vector Autoregressive) model which demonstrates the dependence of the GWP to the rest of the indicators and their responsiveness to shocks. The findings of the study offers valuable insight and opportunities for short term recommendations and further exploration. The companies are missing the sustainability and viability of their management models and define the “shortcism” as more important for the market and operational performance. In these regard, the business models must introduce contemporary and comprehensive tools and techniques, dominantly based on IT solutions and adequate HCM changes, for risk identification and actions for lowering the claims ratio and their volume. Moreover, all the companies should evaluate the elements of the operating costs, both for sales as well as of the administrative ones, as critical components for the companies’ profitability. Very importantly, significant changes at the ALM models and higher rate of returns should inevitably create additional advantage for dynamic and sustainable models for consumer acquisition and new products and services development.

Abstract U.S. Navy marine gas turbine engines serve as primarye and auxiliary power sources for several current classes of ships. Early observations noted in the 1960s and 1970s revealed severe corrosion attack on the first stage blade and vane components of a shipboard marine gas turbine engine that caused engine failure after only several hundred hours. In gas turbine development, there is always a drive and need to enhance the performance and life of engines. The virtues of using Ni-base superalloys in hot-section components has been well recognized and practiced as a means of substantial increase in turbine-inlet temperature, resulting in improvements in thermal efficiency, durability, and performance of engines. The USN shipboard environment (the marine environment) is high in salt laden air and water, coupled with air and fuel sulfur species that cause aggressive corrosion in gas turbine hot sections. Materials that can function in this environment are considered to be “Marinized”. Higher engine power density and pressure ratios for new engine designs will increase maximum blade, vane, and rotor metal temperatures from a mainly Low Temperature Hot Corrosion (LTHC) regime into both the High Temperature Hot Corrosion (HTHC) and Oxidation Corrosion regions. It is expected that future increased surface combatant loads and operational changes will require increased gas turbine operating temperatures and change the associated operating environment to one where Type I and Type II hot corrosion AND oxidation will be prevalent in newly anticipated operational profiles. The advanced gas turbine upgrade package will include better corrosion and oxidation resistant capability and/or higher temperature capable materials and their associated component overhaul methodologies. New materials need to be created and developed for use in more aggressive environments and higher temperature operations. The main cause of the shorter time between overhauls is the materials deterioration of the engine components associated with the hot section of the engine, e.g. turbine airfoils. The deterioration mechanisms are hot corrosion, with Type 1 hot corrosion mechanism becoming operative at the higher temperatures. The goal of this paper is to evaluate methods to enable running the engine at high power while getting back to the longer mean time between overhauls. The method to achieve the longer time is to evaluate and propose for implementation materials, which can withstand the higher temperatures and at the same time mitigate the operative corrosion mechanisms associated with marine environments.

The production of LDPE may require huge heavy-duty reciprocating compressors to withstand the loads, deriving from the operating pressures, to satisfy the growing needs of the market. Safety, Performance and Reliability are normal expectations and therefore need a thorough evaluation of the specific service. The machine selection is based on positive experience in similar applications and cylinder performance. The cylinders are special pressure vessels, whose design and construction have to consider the extreme internal pressures and the process gas. The design must foresee all possible failure modes of each component, to have safe and smooth operation, thanks to innovative methods of modeling and simulation, like FEM and CFD, important for the design of cylinder parts. Valves are simulated by mathematical models optimizing performance, to reach a correct mechanical behavior with minimum energy consumption and ensuring reliable operation. The available technological improvements are a starting point, resulting from the developments of manufacturers and long experience of End Users. The pulsation and vibration of the piping are usually investigated to keep the plant in operation without failures. Many cylinder components are exposed to pressures fluctuating between suction and discharge and therefore to high fatigue loads. To reach high endurance capabilities they have to be pre-compressed to keep them operating under compressive stresses whenever possible. Special materials, shrink fitting and auto-frettage procedures are usually required. The operation is the stage where all the parameters have to be kept under control and incipient problems have to be identified to minimize shut-downs and arrange various maintenance works. Automation, monitoring and diagnostic systems complete the efforts of operators to afford high safety levels, with increased availability and optimized maintenance interventions. The continuing development of technology will help to challenge performance and high capacity demand of future plants.

The Illinois Marine Transportation System (IMTS) is a key component of the nation’s inland waterway system. IMTS is comprised of 27 locks and dams, 19 port districts, more than 350 active terminals, and 1,118 miles of navigable inland waterways traversing along the borderline or within the state of Illinois. However, the infrastructure of IMTS is aging and its conditions are deteriorating. To monitor the performance of IMTS and guide infrastructure investment to enhance safety, efficiency, and reliability of the system, a comprehensive performance measurement program is needed. To this end, the objective of this project is to create an integrated, comprehensive, and maintainable database that facilitates performance measurement of maritime freight to, from, and through Illinois. To achieve this objective, a review of the literature on maritime freight transportation both in the United States and abroad was performed. To gauge practitioners’ points of view, a series of phone interviews and online surveys of Illinois’ neighboring state DOT officials, officials from the US Army Corps of Engineers, Illinois port district authorities, and carriers operating in Illinois was also conducted. With the findings from the literature review and an understanding of state DOT practices, the needed and available data sources for a maritime freight performance measurement program were identified. Building on all the above efforts, a first-of-its-kind PM database for IMTS was designed and developed, along with a detailed user manual, ready for IDOT’s immediate use and future updates. In addition, opportunities for IDOT to use the database to conduct analysis are discussed. Key programmatic recommendations that outline the role of IDOT as a champion and as a facilitator are further included. The outcome of this project will help IDOT gain much-needed knowledge of and develop programs to improve IMTS performance, increase multimodal transportation network capacity, and expand the transportation and logistics sector of the state, which ultimately benefit the people and economy of Illinois.

This special report discusses the outcomes of a September 2019 workshop intended to identify barriers to the consideration and implementation of natural and nature-based features (NNBF) in US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) civil works projects. A total of 23 participants representing seven USACE districts, the US Army Engineer Research and Development Center (ERDC), and the University of California–Santa Cruz met at USACE’s South Atlantic Division Headquarters in Atlanta, Georgia, to discuss how to facilitate the implementation of NNBF into USACE project planning for wetlands and reefs using six categories: (1) site characterization, (2) engineering and design analysis, (3) life-cycle analysis, (4) economic analysis, (5) construction analysis, (6) and operation and maintenance (and monitoring). The workshop identified seven future directions in wetland and reef NNBF research and development: • Synthesize existing literature and analysis of existing projects to better define failure modes. • Determine trigger points that lead to loss of feature function. • Identify performance factors with respect to coastal storm risk management (CSRM) performance as well as ecological performance. • Focus additional research into cobenefits of NNBF. • Quantify the economic life-cycle costs of a project. • Improve technology transfer with regards to NNBF research and topics.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.

With its annual Payment Systems Report, Banco de la República offers a complete overview of the infrastructure of Colombia’s financial market. Each edition of the report has four objectives: 1) to publicize a consolidated account of how the figures for payment infrastructures have evolved with respect to both financial assets and goods and services; 2) to summarize the issues that are being debated internationally and are of interest to the industry that provides payment clearing and settlement services; 3) to offer the public an explanation of the ideas and concepts behind retail-value payment processes and the trends in retail payments within the circuit of individuals and companies; and 4) to familiarize the public, the industry, and all other financial authorities with the methodological progress that has been achieved through applied research to analyze the stability of payment systems. This edition introduces changes that have been made in the structure of the report, which are intended to make it easier and more enjoyable to read. The initial sections in this edition, which is the eleventh, contain an analysis of the statistics on the evolution and performance of financial market infrastructures. These are understood as multilateral systems wherein the participating entities clear, settle and register payments, securities, derivatives and other financial assets. The large-value payment system (CUD) saw less momentum in 2019 than it did the year before, mainly because of a decline in the amount of secondary market operations for government bonds, both in cash and sell/buy-backs, which was offset by an increase in operations with collective investment funds (CIFs) and Banco de la República’s operations to increase the money supply (repos). Consequently, the Central Securities Depository (DCV) registered less activity, due to fewer negotiations on the secondary market for public debt. This trend was also observed in the private debt market, as evidenced by the decline in the average amounts cleared and settled through the Central Securities Depository of Colombia (Deceval) and in the value of operations with financial derivatives cleared and settled through the Central Counterparty of Colombia (CRCC). Section three offers a comprehensive look at the market for retail-value payments; that is, transactions made by individuals and companies. During 2019, electronic transfers increased, and payments made with debit and credit cards continued to trend upward. In contrast, payments by check continued to decline, although the average daily value was almost four times the value of debit and credit card purchases. The same section contains the results of the fourth survey on how the use of retail-value payment instruments (for usual payments) is perceived. Conducted at the end of 2019, the main purpose of the survey was to identify the availability of these payment instruments, the public’s preferences for them, and their acceptance by merchants. It is worth noting that cash continues to be the instrument most used by the population for usual monthly payments (88.1% with respect to the number of payments and 87.4% in value). However, its use in terms of value has declined, having registered 89.6% in the 2017 survey. In turn, the level of acceptance by merchants of payment instruments other than cash is 14.1% for debit cards, 13.4% for credit cards, 8.2% for electronic transfers of funds and 1.8% for checks. The main reason for the use of cash is the absence of point-of-sale terminals at commercial establishments. Considering that the retail-payment market worldwide is influenced by constant innovation in payment services, by the modernization of clearing and settlement systems, and by the efforts of regulators to redefine the payment industry for the future, these trends are addressed in the fourth section of the report. There is an account of how innovations in technology-based financial payment services have developed, and it shows that while this topic is not new, it has evolved, particularly in terms of origin and vocation. One of the boxes that accompanies the fourth section deals with certain payment aspects of open banking and international experience in that regard, which has given the customers of a financial entity sovereignty over their data, allowing them, under transparent and secure conditions, to authorize a third party, other than their financial entity, to request information on their accounts with financial entities, thus enabling the third party to offer various financial services or initiate payments. Innovation also has sparked interest among international organizations, central banks, and research groups concerning the creation of digital currencies. Accordingly, the last box deals with the recent international debate on issuance of central bank digital currencies. In terms of the methodological progress that has been made, it is important to underscore the work that has been done on the role of central counterparties (CCPs) in mitigating liquidity and counterparty risk. The fifth section of the report offers an explanation of a document in which the work of CCPs in financial markets is analyzed and corroborated through an exercise that was built around the Central Counterparty of Colombia (CRCC) in the Colombian market for non-delivery peso-dollar forward exchange transactions, using the methodology of network topology. The results provide empirical support for the different theoretical models developed to study the effect of CCPs on financial markets. Finally, the results of research using artificial intelligence with information from the large-value payment system are presented. Based on the payments made among financial institutions in the large-value payment system, a methodology is used to compare different payment networks, as well as to determine which ones can be considered abnormal. The methodology shows signs that indicate when a network moves away from its historical trend, so it can be studied and monitored. A methodology similar to the one applied to classify images is used to make this comparison, the idea being to extract the main characteristics of the networks and use them as a parameter for comparison. Juan José Echavarría Governor