Letteratura scientifica selezionata sul tema "French banks in China"

The entomological collection of László börzsöny was donated to the rippl-rónai museum (Kaposvár) in 2019. Osmylidae 2 exx. - 2 sp., mantispidae 1 ex. - 1 sp., hemerobii-dae 2 exx. - 1 sp., Chrysopidae 28 exx. - 12 sp., nemopteridae 100 exx. - 6 sp., myrmeleontidae: ascalaphinae 444 exx. - 68 sp. were identified in this collection. During the identification, 3 new synonyms were revealed namely Palparidius fascipennis(banks, 1911) (syn. n.) a new junior synonym of Palparidius capicolaPéringuey, 1910, Ululodes sinuatus banks, 1924 (syn. n.) a new junior synonym of Cordulecerus praecellens (Gers-taecker, 1885), Agrionosoma pendleburyi Fraser, 1927 (syn. n.) is a new junior synonym of Agrionosoma dohrni van der Weele, 1909. the lectotype of Suphalomitus buyssoni van der Weele, 1909 and the lectotype of Suhpalacsa donckieri navás, 1913 were designated. Several species were found as new records for the local faunas: Dielocroce chobauti (mclachlan, 1898) for Jordan; Ameropterus selysi (van der Weele, 1909) for Peru and French Guiana; Cordulecerus praecellens (Ger-staecker, 1885), Amoea arenosa (Walker, 1853) Haploglenius cuboides Jones sl. and Ululodes venezolensis van der Weele, 1909 (stat. n.) for Peru; Allocormodes junodi van der Weele, 1909 for tanzania; Ascalobyas microcerus (rambur, 1842) for belize; Protidricerus elwesii (mcLachlan, 1891) for myanmar, thailand and vietnam; Tmesibasis rothschildi van der Weele, 1907 for ethiopia; Agrionosoma dohrni van der Weele, 1909 and Agrionosoma swinhoei van der Weele, 1909 for myanmar; Encyoposis seydeli (navás, 1929) for Zambia; Glyptobasis cor-nuta Kimmins, 1949 for nepal; Libelloides sibiricus (eversmann, 1850) for mongolia; Maezous tomijankae Ábrahám, 2008 for China and vietnam; Malesianus harisi (Ábrahám, 2008) for Indonesia; Nephoneura costalis van der Weele, 1909 for Zam-bia, Ghana, Cameroon; Phalascusa vassei van der Weele, 1909 for Kenya. Zambia, namibia and Suphalomitus formosanusEsben-Petersen, 1913 for Vietnam.

The article is devoted to the architecture of European banking institutions in Guangzhou, built on the territory of Shamyan island in the late 19th – early 20th century. A brief historical excursion into the history of the formation of the British and French concessions is given. This publication examines the stylistic and compositional features of the architecture of such banking institutions as: Hong Kong and Shanghai Banking Corporation; The Chartered Bank of India, Australia and China; International banking corporation (City Bank); Bank of Taiwan; Commercial Corporation of Mitsubishi; Yokogama Specie Bank; The E.D.Sassoon & Co.Ltd. и D. Sassoon Sons Co. Ltd; Bank of Indochina; China & France Industry Bank. A composite and stylistic analysis was conducted, an iconographic description of the buildings of the main banks located within the boundaries of the former European concessions on Shamyan Island is given The study reveals the general principles of the development of the architecture of banking institutions in Guangzhou. The materials and results of the research carried out by the authors of this article allowed us to formulate the following conclusions: 1. The territorial isolation of the Shamyan island from the Chinese part of Guangzhou, as well as the operation within the concessions of British and French laws, contributed to the fact that the development of the architectural ensemble of the island as a whole was carried out in line with the advanced West European architectural and urban trends. 2. Most of the banking buildings here are built in the eclectic style with the predominance of neoclassicism features, of course, this fact is connected with the desire of the owners of bank corporations to demonstrate to the clients and competitors the financial strength of their organizations. 3. In the architecture of the considered banking institutions there is an active use of tectonics and elements of the order system, colonnades, arcades, the allocation of the first floor in the form of a rustic plinth. The motifs of Renaissance architecture, Baroque and Art Nouveau are also traced. 4. The formation of the appearance of banking buildings in Shamyan was strongly influenced by local conditions. The hot and humid subtropical climate of the south of China contributed to the spread in the architecture of the structures of this type of order colonnades, forming deep open verandas, as well as the use of X-shaped creaks-elements to ensure the natural ventilation of buildings, which, in addition, became an expressive element of the facade decoration

<span lang="EN-IN">Inflation means a persistent change in the price level of goods and services in an economy. It is generally measured in the consumer price index (CPI) or retail price index (RPI). Inflation reduces the purchasing power of a country's currency, as we need more units of currency over time to buy the same goods and services. The current empirical paper entitled “relationship between inflation and stock market evidence from selected global stock markets” have been undertaken with an intention to investigate the relationship between inflation and stock returns of the chosen economies. In order to realize the stated objectives, the researchers have collected the monthly data 2000 to 2017 for selected indices. In the first phase, log returns were computed and it has been tested for the existence of unit root in the distribution. In the second phase, we ran Pearson correlation coefficient for the collected data to find out the association between the inflation and stock returns. Majority of the chosen indices recorded a negative </span><span lang="EN-IN">coefficient with the dependent variable. </span><span lang="EN-IN">For India, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Chile, China, France, Ireland we found a negative coefficient. However, Brazil </span><span lang="EN-IN">Indonesia, Japanese, Mexico, Spanish and Turkey reported a positive coefficient. </span><span lang="EN-IN">Current study clearly throws light on the effect of inflation on the stock market returns, therefore; it can help the market participants such as traders, fund managers, and investors to make good portfolio decisions based on the information about expected inflation and unexpected inflation. The study confirms that there exists a significant relationship between the stock returns and inflation for Australian, Belgium, Canadian, Chilean, Chinese, French and Irish stock benchmark indices. Firms can take this one has a clue to adjust their reported profits by raising the prices. The policymakers can employ contractionary policy to reduce the supply of money by offering a low interest rate on t bills, increasing the interest rates (bank rate policy) and increasing the cash reserve ratios which in turn reduces the lending capacity of the banks.</span>

As Chinese government policy has evolved, so have the models adopted by foreign banks for developing their branch networks in China. Burdensome regulation and unequal treatment compared to those for Chinese banks have impeded the speed and scope of foreign banks' operation. China's deepening financial reforms could provide a fair and competitive environment for foreign banks' penetration, offering openings for foreign banks to participate more extensively in the Chinese economy.

This article studies the major transformations resulting from the global Covid-19 pandemic and how to examine it from the point of view of social philosophy through two sub-themes. The first relates to understanding the state of collective panic in Spain, France, and Italy. It is logical that fear of the pandemic should not turn into a state of collective panic in societies living under technologically advanced political systems, except in cases where these societies lack the basic elements on which social ties are based. Therefore, how do we understand the fragility of these social ties in European countries where mass panic is threatening daily life? The second sub-theme is related to the gestures and features of creating a new geopolitical map that has benefitted from the geopolitical retreat of the West to consolidate other political and regional alliances, mainly the Chinese initiative to tender aid to Italy at a time when other European countries turned their backs on and closed their borders with that European Union member state. How do we understand the contribution of the pandemic in forming new geopolitical alliances that could reset the balance of power in the world? We will observe the political behavior of countries that are supposed to be the first to have shown solidarity with Italy, Spain, and France, which are members of the European Union. We analyze the factors related to the erosion of the basis on which classical European society is based, where collective panic represents one of the manifestations of this disintegration. This panic, which was expressed in the rush to buy foodstuffs and the outbreak of a “toilet paper” buying fever that spread throughout Europe and the United States, saw shelves suddenly empty without a direct reason for this fact. Also, the study determines the relationship that binds these factors to the political disintegration expressed in the lack of solidarity from parts of the European Union with the three countries most affected by the pandemic. The second part of the study discusses how China will benefit from these political developments in the West with the prevalence of collective panic due to the pandemic, especially in the case of Italy, and how China is consolidating solidarity relations with these countries, drawing a map of new international political relations as part of its Silk Road project. Also, there is a discussion of the French philosopher Michel Foucault’s study on plague as a theoretical framework.

China has undertaken a series of comprehensive economic and banking reform programs over the past three decades. As part of the WTO agreement, the domestic financial sector is fully open to foreign investors from WTO member countries in 2006. To answer the challenges, the policy makers and management of SOCB have been introducing two major steps to improve the Competitiveness of the commercial banks: transfer the bad debts to asset management companies and inject foreign exchange reserves to capital. However, the qualitative study shows that the general performance of the state-owned commercial banks is unstable during this period. It is high time that the consequences and efficiency of the reform were examined on an objective basis. This research offers a careful and rigorous examination of the condition and determinants of banking efficiency and competitiveness in China, with the focus on the state-owned commercial banks. The key contribution of this study is to develop a comprehensive empirical framework to measure and explain the performance of the state-owned commercial banks during the crucial transitional period from 1998 to 2003. This research examines the banking market conditions on the basis of a synthesis of the traditional Structure-Conduct-Performance paradigm and other alternative hypotheses. The thesis reveals that the state-owned commercial banks still dominate in both retail and business banking markets. The interest earnings remain the dominant source of commercial revenues. Due to the special relationship with government and their operational characters in the financial market, the state-owned commercial banks are not sensitive to monetary policy adjustments. The competition from other type of commercial banks has been strengthening, but the impact is rather limited. The main contribution of this study to the empirical literature on the Chinese banking market is the employment of the Data Envelopment Analysis to measure the efficiency of the state-owned commercial banks at provincial level, followed by a panel econometric investigation into the differences in banking efficiency across the stat-owned commercial banking groups as well as individual provinces. The results show that the level of banking efficiency was generally very low and there was a significant extent of input surplus among the provincial branches. The source of inefficiency is different among individual banking groups. The econometric study reveals that the SOCBs benefit from the concentrated market structure and strong complementary relationship with their traditional business areas. The empirical results have also shed light on further policy measures to enhance banking competition and performance in China.

Credit risk is one of the most general risks that exist in the financial market and a major risk faced by financial institutions. Credit risk management (CRM) is to identify, measure, monitor, and control risk arising from the possibility of default in loan repayments. The primary objective of CRM of rural commercial banks (RCBs) is to maintain risk within acceptable parameters and satisfy the regulatory requirements. CRM has long been the focus of governments, regulatory authorities and financial institutions. This thesis examines the importance of CRM for RCBs, which has been overlooked in the literature, and attempts to develop a CRM framework for RCBs. It has four specific research objectives: 1) to discuss the differences between RCBs and city based-commercial banks; 2) to examine the importance of CRM for RCBs and identify the approaches available for banks to manage credit risks; 3) to identify the key factors that have influenced the credit evaluation and assessment, as well as credit risk control in the context of China's RCBs; and 4) to propose a practicable CRM framework that suits the characteristics of Chinese RCBs. This study adopts qualitative analysis and case study approaches to identify key factors contributing to the failure of RCBs' customers, resulting in loan defaults and banks' credit risk. The quantitative-based CRM tools available for large financial institutions do not meet the requirements of RCBs because the main customers of RCBs are small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and farming households and there is a lack of financial data and credit rating relating to these customers. In addition to normal risks faced by financial institutions, RCBs in China are also exposed to risks specifically to rural commercial banking business and in particular, farming-related loans and services. This study proposes a CRM framework for RCBs in China. The framework is based on the identification of business failures of RCBs' customers and factors contributing to the failures of SMEs and farming households. The framework is divided into five steps. The first step is to distinguish business failure and closure. The second step is to identify factors contributing to the failure of customers, which should be considered from environmental, operational, financial and guanxi aspects. The third step is to use PCA to identify principal factors. The fourth step is to design a credit risk analysis model with an analysis of these principal factors. The final step is to use the credit risk analysis model to manage credit risks of their portfolios and individual loans provided to SMEs and farming households. The CRM framework has been confirmed by practitioners through interviews conducted in the case bank. Interviews raise a number of issues relating to the development of a CRM model and assessment of credit risk of SMEs in China. The case study through an analysis of documents of the case bank reveals the importance of CRM and organisational structure in risk management and CRM. The case study presents evidence of lacking of practical methods in managing credit risk by RCBs in China. The proposed framework expects to address the problem. This study has made several contributions to the literature that studies CRM in financial institutions in general and RCBs in particular. This study critically identifies the current lack of studies specifically addressing the RCBs' CRM, and proposes a CRM framework for RCBs. The framework considers financial and non-financial variables to analyse SMEs and farming household for which financial information is very limited. Using nonfinancial variables along with financial variables as predictors of business failure significantly improves credit analysis quality and accuracy. Also, this study recognises guanxi as risk potentials affecting the business of SMEs and farming households and includes guanxi risks in the framework. The consideration of guanxi in credit risk analysis fits well with China's business environment.

Small and medium firms are highly dependent on banks to finance their business activities. Thus, banking relationship may be crucial to overcome financial difficulties and to ensure their continuity. Accordingly, this paper investigates the influence of banking relationship on SMEs failure. In particular, four measures that firms can control to build their banking relationships and, that resemble standard variables from the literature on bank/firms relationships are evaluated: the breadth of relationships (number of banks), the relationship length(relationship duration), the relationship proximity (bank-firm distance) and, the relationship form (type of bank). Applying a logistic regression to a unique sample of 4960 French SME firms over the period 2013-2016, we evidence that banking relationships have a significant role on the SMEs likelihood of failure. More precisely, we find that multibank relationships, working with a small bank and relationship length are significantly negative correlated with SMEs failure. The opposite effect appears in bank-firm distance, which increases the SMEs probability of failure. Additionally, a corporate failure prediction model was built based on both financial ratios and banking relationship variables. The performance of this model was compared to a model based solely on financial ratios as predictive indicators. The results indicate that banking relationship variables possess prediction power to failure and enhance the performance of corporate failure models. Consequently, our findings are important from a policy perspective to further comprehend the role that banks play on SMEs failure.

This comparative note describes common and distinct practices on capabilities to support the innovation activities of seven national development banks (NDB): BNDES (Brazil), CORFO (Chile), China Development Bank, CDB (China), BANCOLDEX (Colombia), Bpifrance (France), Korean Development Bank, KDB (South Korea), and NAFINSA (Mexico). The analysis studies the strategies followed by the selected NDBs for the design and implementation of innovation support programs and the capacities they need to be successful. Little is known about the experience of these NDBs in the world that have been the most successful in designing and implementing programs to support innovation. Building on the primary data collected through flexible semi-structured interviews with current or former NDBs officials, validated and supplemented by interviews with stakeholders outside the NDB, this study asks the following research questions: (i) What priority do NDBs assign to the financing of innovation projects?; (ii) Which operational models would be most effective in financing high-potential innovation projects, avoiding capture? Should they operate on the first and/or second tier?; (iii) What capabilities(a) governance; (b) technical (financial and technological); and (c) operational (implementation and sustainability)should NDBs develop to support innovation credit?; (iv) how, based on their contact with clients, can NDBs help identify market failures faced by innovative companies and thus produce and organize information on potential projects with high social returns?; and (v) What is the best framework for coordinating the work of the NDBs with the innovation agencies?

This brief looks at how multilateral development banks (MDBs) can help strengthen the life-science industry in the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) and promote private sector investment and innovation as demand for better health care grows. It explains how the PRC’s health-care sector has largely focused on imported and low-cost generic medicines, looks at the impact of complex regulations, and outlines the government’s strategy to boost scientific development and improve health. It sets out ways to expand translational medicine systems and assesses how MDBs can help strengthen financing, incentivize innovation, and improve quality standards.

Professor Leslie R. Marchant was a Western Australian historian of international renown. Richly educated as a child in political philosophy and critical reason, Marchant’s understandings of western political philosophies were deepened in World War Two when serving with an international crew of the merchant navy. After the war’s end, Marchant was appointed as a Protector of Aborigines in Western Australia’s Depart of Native Affairs. His passionate belief in Enlightenment ideals, including the equality of all people, was challenged by his experiences as a Protector. Leaving that role, he commenced his studies at The University of Western Australia where, in 1952, his Honours thesis made an early case that genocide had been committed in the administration of Aboriginal people in Western Australia. In the years that followed, Marchant became an early researcher of modern China and its relationship with the West, and won respect for his archival research of French maritime history in the Asia-Pacific. This work, including the publication of France Australe in 1982, was later recognised with the award of a French knighthood, the Chevalier d’Ordre National du Mèrite, and his election as a fellow to the Royal Geographical Society. In this festschrift, scholars from The University of Notre Dame Australia appraise Marchant’s work in such areas as Aboriginal history and policy, Westminster traditions, political philosophy, Australia and China and French maritime history.

The objective of the study is to outline the vision of the Russian-Ukrainian war in Renmin Ribao, the main newspaper of the People’s Republic of China. The source base of the research is the content of the Renmin Ribao website during 2022 in English, Spanish, French, Russian, German, Italian, and Portuguese languages. The material was selected using the keywords «Ukraine», «Russia» (and other derivatives), analyzed using induction, vocabulary analysis, classification analysis, and content analysis. Renmin Ribao rarely uses the term “war” to refer to events in Ukraine, resorting to streamlined formulations such as “situation”, “issue”, “crisis”, “conflict” and even “Russian military operation”. The newspaper sees the United States, not Russia, as responsible for the events in Ukraine. Rather, Moscow is a victim of many years of intrigues on the part of the United States, which manifested itself in efforts to restrain and weaken Russia, in particular with the help of Ukraine. The newspaper often reproduces Russian narratives and Russian fakes, disseminates messages typical of Russian propaganda (for example, about biological laboratories in Ukraine), reports on referendums in the occupied Ukrainian territories from the evidence of the Russian RT television channel, about the annexation of four Ukrainian regions from the testimony of Chairman State Duma Vyacheslav Volodin, about the attack on the Crimean bridge from the evidence of the FSB. Renmin Ribao is inclined to the opinion of the harmfulness of anti-Russian sanctions and the impracticality of supplying weapons to Ukraine, sees a priority way out of the Russian-Ukrainian war in an abstract “peace”, and not the victory of Ukraine. The issue in which Renmin Ribao sharply diverges from the position of official Moscow is the identification of the situation in Ukraine and the situation in Taiwan. Drawing parallels between Taiwan and Ukraine is popular in both the Russian and the Western press. However, when the war began to look less and less victorious for Russia, these parallels became unacceptable to both Renmin Ribao and official Beijing. Keywords: Russian-Ukrainian war, media of China, Renmin Ribao, anti-Russian sanctions, arms supply to Ukraine, Taiwan.

Black carbon – also referred to as soot – is a particulate matter that results from the incomplete combustion of fossil fuels and biomass. As a major air and climate pollutant, black carbon (BC) emissions have widespread adverse effects on human health and climate change. Globally, exposure to unhealthy levels of particulate matter, including BC, is estimated to cause between three and six million excess deaths every year. These health impacts – and the related economic losses – are felt disproportionately by those living in low- and middle-income countries. Furthermore, BC is a potent greenhouse gas with a short-term global warming potential well beyond carbon dioxide and methane. Worse still, it is often deposited on sea ice and glaciers, reducing reflectivity and accelerating melting, particularly in the Arctic and Himalayas. Therefore, reducing BC emissions results in a triple win, mitigating climate change, improving the lives of more than two billion people currently exposed to unclean air, and saving trillions of dollars in economic losses. Today, the majority of BC emissions stem from just a handful of sectors and countries. Over 70% of BC comes from the residential and transportation sectors, with the latter being the dominant source in high-income countries and the former driving emissions in low- and middle-income nations. On a country-level, China and India are the biggest emitters accounting for one-third of global BC emissions. When combined with Brazil, Indonesia, and Nigeria, these five countries alone emit 50% of all BC. While BC emissions trends over the past 20 years have been inconsistent globally, there has been a notable decline in Europe, North America, and China. Conversely, emissions have been rising in regions like Africa, South Asia, and Central Asia. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change recommends deep reductions in BC emissions by 2030 to achieve the Paris Climate Agreement goal of limiting warming to below 1.5°C, yet very few countries have addressed BC in their climate plans. Fortunately, solutions that can rapidly reduce BC emissions by the end of this decade are readily available. By implementing the right policies, deploying targeted interventions in hotspots, and redirecting climate finance, policymakers and funders can mitigate the climate effects of BC while saving millions of lives and trillions of dollars. Below are key recommendations to achieve these aims based on the findings of this report: Urgently implement clean cooking solutions Providing clean cooking fuels and technologies in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, especially in the hotspots of the Indo-Gangetic Plains, Nigeria, and Uganda, can significantly reduce BC emissions. Countries with low penetration of clean cooking fuel must urgently develop policies that make clean cooking a priority for health and climate. Target transportation to reduce current – and prevent future – emissions Retrofitting older diesel engines with diesel particulate filters can remove up to 95% of BC. Countries around the world must implement policies to phase out polluting vehicles, set emission standards, and accelerate the uptake of EVs and hybrids, especially in urban regions where transportation demand is growing rapidly. A successful shift to EVs demands national investments complemented with international financing and private capital. Multilateral development banks need to play a pivotal role in this transition, with strategies like concessional finance to fast-track key projects and stimulate private sector investment. Reduce BC from the shipping industry BC emissions from the shipping industry must be urgently reduced to protect the Arctic ecosystem. Shifting shipping away from heavy fuel oil and equipping ships with diesel particulate filters is a cost-effective approach that would quickly and significantly reduce emissions. Regulate air quality Stringent emissions standards, clean air laws, baselines, and mandatory monitoring programs can effectively reduce BC emissions. Such policies have already resulted in large reductions in Europe, North America, and, more recently, China. However, several low- and middle-income countries have no legal protection for ambient air quality and lack legislatively-mandated standards. Implementing strong and legally binding policies can result in a large decrease in BC emissions, particularly across the transportation and industry sectors. Include BC in nationally determined contributions and the UNFCCC Only 12 countries have explicitly addressed BC in their nationally determined contributions (NDCs). This limited focus on BC is partly due to its omission from the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change’s (UNFCCC) list of climate pollutants, an oversight that should be reconsidered given that reducing BC would save countless lives and slow global warming. As nations review their NDCs by 2025, they must incorporate BC reduction efforts to meet climate and well-being targets. Improve BC measurements and estimates BC estimates are plagued by uncertainties. Therefore, there is an urgent need for more accurate inventories in order to develop better emission reduction plans. Stakeholders must collaborate to develop a consistent BC measurement protocol, prioritize the collection of high-quality data, and use state of the art models to enhance estimates and reduce uncertainties.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.

In an international context that has started showing signs of increased instability, the pace of global economic growth seems not to have been significantly affected, at least at the time of writing the present report. Growth forecasts for the global economy for this year are only slightly below those for 2006 (5.2% as against 5.4%). World trade continued to expand faster than GDP growth, while foreign direct investment (FDI) flows made up the ground they lost in 2001-2003, approaching the record values of 2000. Although, toward mid-2007, there was serious disruption in the international financial market, the swift, emphatic reactions of the central banks of the United States and Europe are highly likely to contain the more negative effects of this on the dynamics of the world economy. There was also continuous growth in much of the developing world, particularly China.

In this report, ADB has lowered its forecasts for economic growth in developing Asia and the Pacific to 4.3% in 2022 and 4.9% in 2023, amid mounting challenges. Its theme chapter looks at how digital entrepreneurship spurs growth and innovation. The region’s economy is expected to grow 4.3% this year, compared with ADB’s projection in April of a 5.2% expansion, while the growth forecast for next year is lowered to 4.9% from 5.3%. The downward revisions have been driven by increased monetary tightening by central banks, fallout from the protracted Russian invasion of Ukraine, and recurrent COVID-19 lockdowns in the People’s Republic of China. Inflation in developing Asia this year is likely to reach 4.5%, up from ADB’s earlier projection of 3.7%. The forecast for 2023 is 4.0%, up from 3.1%. While inflation in the region remains lower than elsewhere, supply disruptions continue to push up food and fuel prices. The report’s theme chapter looks at the role of entrepreneurship in achieving inclusive growth, and how governments in the region can create a more enabling environment for digital entrepreneurs