Tesi sul tema "Farm risks"

"November 2002." Bibliography: leaves 73-80. Identifies main sources of farming risk in the Upper Eyre Peninsula as climate variability and financial risk. Finds that farmers manage risk by having high equity and off-farm investment, using gross margin analysis, having farm management deposits, diversifying varieties, minimizing tillage, relying on experts for grain marketing and keeping stock for high price periods.

Thesis (MScAgric)--Stellenbosch University, 2015.
ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The objective of this study was to consider whether smallholders operate within homogenous or differentiated farming systems i.e. a similar “‘one type”’ system or a system that could be described as a smallholder typology consisting of a number of farming types. The enquiry firstly described and analysed farm diversity and then developed risk attitude profiles of smallholder farmers in the Stellenbosch local municipal area in the Western Cape province of South Africa. The problem statements, directing this study is that there is a general misconception that smallholders are all “‘the same’” and that they all operate within one ‘“representative farming model”’; and that the majority of smallholders are risk averse. These views also argue that all smallholder farmers are not primarily directed at profit objectives, but that social considerations are most relevant and that different social orientations are shaping farming systems. These views are investigated in this study and the hypotheses directing this analysis is that smallholders in the study area are not a homogenous group; rather types within a broader farming typology, with different orientations and objectives and with different risk attitude profiles. The study originated as part of an international collaborative investigation – the South African Agrarian Diagnoses project, a joint research project of the Agro Paris Tech/Agence Francaise de Development, the Standard Bank Centre for Agribusiness Development and Leadership, Stellenbosch University and the University of Pretoria in to farmer diversity and farmer typologies in South Africa. This investigation looked at smallholder farming in different agrogeographical areas in South Africa, with this particular study focussing on potential smallholder farmer diversity in the Stellenbosch local municipal area. The Stellenbosch local municipality and Western Cape Department of Agriculture provided logistical support, information to this investigation and participated in focus group sessions. Smallholder activity in this study was defined to include both small scale farming activities and the mobilisation of smallholders/farm workers in so-called ‘“farm worker equity schemes’” – a type not included in the other regions. Data was collected from eight smallholders’ farming communities and the four different farm workers’ equity share schemes through surveys and interviews. The following towns and hamlets: Franschhoek, Kylemore, Lanquedoc (Herbal View and Spier Corridor), Pniel, Jamestown, Raithby, Lynedoch and Koelenhof; and four farm workers’ equity share schemes were: Swartrivier vineyard project, Koopmanskloof vineyard project, Enaleni Trust and Poker Hill vineyard project. Personal interviews and focus group discussions were conducted and cluster analysis was used for the diversity (typology) analysis and the Likert scale was employed to measure risk attitude profiles. A non-probability sampling approach was used to select a sample size of 49 respondents. The reason for using non-probability sampling technique was that when one wants to do the diversity analysis, one must try to include many respondents in the sample and the farmers that are included must be representative of the population from which they are selected. The variables selected as determinants of farm diversity included information about: demographics and households, land ownership and occupation, farming activities, farming objectives, agricultural inputs, labour, equipment, farming constraints, access to markets, financial support services, educational and training services, extension services and reasons for quitting farming activities. From this, different farming types and typologies were identified, described and structured. Preference indications for different risk management strategies were then used to measure and describe the risk attitudes of different types of smallholder farmers using the Likert risk attitudinal scale. The results and findings confirmed the study hypotheses relating to diversity in smallholder farming in the target area, namely that smallholders in this geographical area are not a homogenous group and rejects the stated hypotheses that most smallholder farmers are risk averse. A Stellenbosch smallholder typology, with six different farming types were established viz: type 1 – farmland-occupying but non-farming households (10.2% of the sample), type 2 – pensioner – livestock farmers (16.3% of the sample), type 3 – part-time cattle farmers (14.3% of the sample), type 4 – commercial equity share farmers (16.3% of the sample), type 5 – retirement planning crop producers (20.4% of the sample), and type 6 – commercial crop producers (22.5% of the sample). With regard to risk profiles, risk attitudes varied between these types and also within each type, hence risk attitudes for smallholders are also not found to be similar. The results revealed that those smallholder farmers moving on a development path towards commercial agriculture (types 4, 5 and 6) were risk preferring; less commercially orientated farm types (types 1, 2 and 3), showed risk averse and risk neutral orientations. The risk profile percentages of farmers interviewed were 43.2%, 34.1% and 22.7%, respectively for risk preferring, risk neutral and risk averse; this finding rejects the stated hypotheses. From these results, a number of issues, relevant to development support programmes, were proposed for further agricultural economic research. The most important of these are related to: appropriate development support strategies related to farm types and the potential development paths for each type; and the structuring of appropriate ‘“risk management instruments”’ for each type, in particular to support smallholder farmers; with a development trajectory towards commercial farming, i.e. to support emerging commercial farmers – an important category of farming listed in current government policy and in the National Development Plan.
AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die doelwit van hierdie studie was om ondersoek in te stel na die tipe kleinboere-stelsel (smallholder farming systems) wat voorkom in die Stellenbosch munisipale gebied in die WesKaap provinsie van Suid Afrika en die eenvormigheid al dan nie daarvan te ontleed. Eerstens is plaasdiversiteit ondersoek en ontleed; en daarna die risikohoudings van sondagie kleinboere. Die ontledings is dan gebruik om uitspraak te gee oor die eenvormigheid of diversiteit van kleinboerestelsels in die geogafiese gebied. Die probleemstelling wat hierdie studie gerig het, was dat daar ’n algehele wanbegrip mag bestaan dat kleinboere almal “dieselfde” is, of binne n ‘“eenvormige verteenwoordigende boerderymodel”’ funksioneer; en dat, gekoppel hieraan, die meerderheid kleinboere risikoafkerig is. Hierdie sienings hou ook voor dat alle kleinboere nie noodwendig op winsdoelwitte fokus nie, maar dat maatskaplike oorwegings ook relevant is en dat verskillende oriëntasies boerderystelsels vorm. Hierdie sienings word in hierdie studie ondersoek en die hipotese wat die analise rig, is dat die kleinboere in die studie nie ’n eenvormige of homogene groep is nie, eerder verskillende soorte/tipes kleinboere met verskillende oriëntasies en doelwitte en dus ook met verskillende risikohoudings. Die studie het sy oorsprong as deel van ’n internasionale samewerkende ondersoek – die South African Agrarian Diagnoses-projek van die Agro Paris Tech/Agence Francaise de Development, die Standard Bank Sentrum vir Agribesigheidsontwikkeling en Leierskap, Universiteit van Stellenbosch endie Universiteit van Pretoria oor die diversiteit en tipologieë van kleinboere in Suid Afrika. Hierdie ondersoek het gekyk na verskillende agro-geologiese gebiede in SuidAfrika, met hierdie studie wat gefokus het op die potensiële diversiteit van boere in die Stellenbosse plaaslike munisipale gebied. Die Stellenbosche Munisipaliteit en Departement van Landbou in die Wes Kaap het ondersteunend gestaan met logistiek en deelname aan fokusgroep gesprekke. Kleinboeraktiwiteit in hierdie studie is gedefinieer om beide kleinskaalse boerderyaktiwiteite op klein grond persele, as ook die mobilisering van kleinboere/plaaswerkers in sogenaamde gedeelde boerdery - eienaarskapskemas in te sluit – n unieke tipe wat nie in die ander streke ondersoek is nie.. Data is vanuit agt kleinboergemeenskappe en die vier verskillende gedeelde eienaarskapskemas vir plaaswerkers deur middel van opnames en onderhoude bekom. Die boerderygemeenskappe was in die volgende dorpe en klein dorpies gevestig: Franschhoek, Kylemore, Lanquedoc (Herbal View en Spier Corridor), Pniel, Jamestown, Raithby, Lynedoch en Koelenhof; en die vier gedeelde eienaarskapskemas vir plaaswerkers was: die Swartrivier wingerdprojek, die Koopmanskloof wingerdprojek, Enaleni Trust en die Poker Hill wingerdprojek. Persoonlike onderhoude en fokusgroepbesprekings is gehou en cluster analise is gebruik vir die diversiteit (tipologie) analise en die Likertskaal is gebruik risiko houding profiele te meet. 'N niewaarskynlikheidsteekproefneming benadering is gebruik om 'n steekproefgrootte van 49 respondente te kies. Die rede vir die gebruik van nie-waarskynlikheidsteekproefneming tegniek was dat wanneer 'n mens die diversiteit ontleding te doen, moet 'n mens probeer om soveel respondente in die monster en die boere wat ingesluit is, moet verteenwoordigend van die bevolking waaruit hulle gekies word om te sluit. Onderhoude is gedoen met sulke kleinboere en trosanalise is gebruik vir die analise van diversiteit (tipologie), en die Likert-skaal is gebruik om risikohoudingsprofiele te meet. Die veranderlikes wat as determinante van plaasdiversiteit gekies is, het inligting oor demografie en huishoudings, grondeienaarskap en -besetting, boerderyaktiwiteite, boerderydoelwitte, landboukundige insette, arbeid, toerusting, boerderybeperkings, marktoegang, finansiële ondersteuningsdienste, opvoedkundige en opleidingsdienste, uitbreidingsdienste en redes hoekom boerdery laat vaar is, ingesluit. Hieruit is verskillende boerderytipes geïdentifiseer en gekonstrueer. Voorkeure opsies vir verskillende risikobestuurstrategieë is gebruik om die risikohoudings van die deur middel van die Likert risikohoudingskaal te meet. Die resultate van hierdie studie het die hipotese oor die aanwesigheid van diversiteit bevestig, naamlik dat kleinboere in hierdie geografiese gebied nie ’n homogene groep is nie n verwerp die gestelde hipoteses dat die meeste kleinboere is risiko-sku. ’n Stellenbosch-tipologie, bestaande uit ses verskillende boerderytipes, is vasgestel: tipe 1 – huishoudings wat nie boer nie maar wat op landbougrond woon (10.2% van die monster), tipe 2 – pensioenaris-veeboere (16.3% van die monster), tipe 3 – deeltydse veeboere (14.3% van die monster), tipe 4 – kommersiële gedeelde eienaarskapskema boere (16.3% van die monster), tipe 5 – gewasprodusente wat aftrede beplan (20.4% van die monster), en tipe 6 – kommersiële gewasprodusente (22.5% van die monster). Met betrekking tot risikoprofiele het risikohoudings tussen die tipes en ook binne elke tipe gewissel, dus is die risikohoudings van kleinboere ook nie gevind om dieselfde te wees nie. Die resultate toon dat kleinboere wat in die rigting van kommersiële landbou beweeg (tipes 4, 5 en 6) risiko-voorkeurend is; daarenteen het minder kommersieel gerigte plaastipes (tipes 1, 2 en 3)risiko-afkerige en risiko-neutrale instellings getoon. In die geheel was die persentasies 43,2%, 34.1% en 22.7% vir risiko-voorkeurend, risiko-neutraal en risiko-afkerig onderskeidelik, wat ook die diversiteitshipotese ondersteun. Vanuit hierdie bevindings word ’n aantal kwessies wat relevant is vir ontwikkelingsondersteuningsprogramme vir kleinboere op verskillende ontwikkelingstrajekte, voorgestel vie verder elandbou ekonomiese navorsing. Die belangrikste hiervan hou verband met die aangewese ontwikkelingstrajekte per kleinboer tipe en daarmeegepaardgaande gepaste “risikobestuurinstrumente” – veral vir die ondersteuning van kleinboere met ’n ontwikkelingstrajek na kommersiële boerdery, m.a.w. opkomende kommersiële boere – ’n belangrike boerderykategorie wat in huidige regeringsbeleid en in die Nasionale Ontwikkelingsplan geprioritiseer word.

This study describes how farmers manage climate variability in dryland crop production, and aims to contribute to the theory and practice of decision support for managing climate variability. The intent was to study farmer decision making to see how DSS could be used to deliver information and procedures on climate risk to farmers more effectively. The study investigated whether there are significant differences between farmers' subjective distributions of seasonal rainfall and its derivatives (such as crop yield and fallow recharge) and a probability distribution derived from long-term records and simulation models, and whether these differences in risk assessment lead to changes in the optimum decision. Subjective probability distributions of rainfall and its derivatives were collected from farmers and advisers and it was found the overall match between these and long term records and simulation models was close. This study found little evidence to support the role of DSS for routine decision making, but this does not lessen the value of distributions derived from simulation models. Rather, it provides an opportunity for both farmers and scientists to learn.
Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)

Thesis (MBA)--Stellenbosch University, 2001.
ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This study evaluates the use of information technology as a method to reduce production risk for irrigated potatoes. Risk in agriculture is discussed under climatic, market or price and production related risk. Production related risk covers the disciplines of planting, irrigation, fertilisation, disease and pest control as well as harvesting. It is in the above mentioned disciplines that information technology could possible be applied to reduce production risk in irrigated potatoes. The nature of this study can therefor be described as the investigation of the economic justification of information technology as a method to reduce production risk in irrigated potatoes. A brief introduction to put potato production in world and South African context into perspective, is provided. In South African context the importance and position of potato production relative to other crops is discussed. To better understand the economic conditions, under which potatoes are produced in South Africa, a financial breakdown of production cost for irrigated potatoes over regions is given. It is important to understand the economics of potato production before a proper assessment of thepossible benefits of information technology can be made. Various principles and instruments involved with information technology, as it applies to potato production under irrigation are also discussed. Irrigation scheduling as a discipline in which information technology can be applied, is also discussed. It is important to understand that irrigation scheduling can be based on two underlying principles, i.e. atmospheric modelling and soil moisture measurement. Various examples of measurement instruments are discussed. Climatic based disease modelling and petiole sampling as a method to determine nutritional status in the potato plant, was also discussed. A brief discussion of computerised agriculture management software was included to conclude the discussion on the principles and instruments available for information technology in irrigated potato production. The use of fertiliser scheduling, irrigation scheduling and climatic modelling to reduce fungal diseases in potatoes, as information technology methods, are explained in greater detail. It is shown that recommended levels for various nutrients do exist and that petiole analysis as a method to determine these levels at various growth stages, can be applied successfully. It is further argued that with various methods of irrigation scheduling, proper decision making about the amount and timing of irrigation needed, can be possible. The Plant-Plus system as a method to better control Late Blight on potatoes, is discussed. The results obtained through a commercial trial proves the validity of climatic modelling as a method of information technology to reduce production risk on potatoes, specifically the risk associated with Late Blight. The existence of and results obtained through the equipment and methods previuosly mentioned, raises the question of the economic viability of information technology at farm level. To investigate the perception of growers with regard to the applicability of information technology to reduce production risk and their readiness to adopt such . -- technology, a questionnaire was sent to 40 commercial potato growers throughout South Africa. Growers were tested on their perception with regard to the use of information technology on aspects such as financial management, irrigation scheduling, fertilisation, climatic measurement for fungal modelling as well as a profile analysis of the grower. The results of the survey are tabulated and analysed. Growers were on average positive about the value of information technology and indicated that under certain conditions, they were prepared to implement such technology. Margins in commercial potato production are under severe pressure and are in fact shrinking. Case studies presented in this investigation and results from the pilot survey indicate that the use of information technology is not only important for the reduction of risk in potato production but also imperative for sustainable and profitable potato production. It can therefore be concluded that, based on the results obtained in the pilot questionnaire, a statistical valid sample would probably support the findings in the pilot study. The pilot study indicated that reliable, affordable and practical information technology, as it has been presented in this investigation, does have a place in modern day irrigated potato production.
AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Hierdie studie evalueer die gebruik van informasie tegnologie as 'n metode om produksie risiko in die verbouing van aartappels onder besproeiing, te verminder. Risiko in landbou word onder klimatologiese, mark of prys en produksie verwante risiko bespreek. Produksie verwante risiko kan weer onderverdeel word in risiko wat verband hou met plant of vestiging, besproeiing, bemesting, plaag en pes beheer asook oes. Dit is dan in die bogenoemde dissiplines waar informasie tegnologie moontlik aangewend kan word om produksie verwante risiko te verminder. Die kern van hierdie ondersoek kan gevolglik saamgevat word as 'n ondersoek na die ekonomiese regverdigbaarheid van informasie tegnologie as 'n metode om produksierisiko in die verbouing van aartappels onder besproeiing, te verminder. Daar word kortliks verwys na aartappel verbouing in wêreld en Suid Afrikaanse konteks. In Suid Afrikaanse konteks is die relatiewe belangrikheid van aartappelverbouing in vergelyking met ander gewasse uitgelig. Ten einde 'n beter begrip vir die ekonomiese omstandighede waaronder aartappels in Suid Afrika verbou word, word 'n afbraak van produksiekoste oor streke verskaf Dit is belangrik om die ekonomie van aartappelproduksie te verstaan voordat 'n deeglike evaluering van die moontlike voordele wat informasie tegnologie kan inhou, onderneem kan word. Verskeie beginsels en instrumente in die aanwending van informasie tegnologie, soos van toepassing in die verbouing van aartappels onder besproeiing, word ook toegelig. Hieronder word besproeiingskedulering as 'n metode bespreek. Dit is verder belangrik om te besef dat besproeiingskedulering op hoofsaaklik twee beginsels berus naamlik atmosferiese modellering en fisiese grondvog meting. Verskeie voorbeelde van meetinstrumente word bespreek. Klimatologiese siektemodellering en petioolontledings as 'n metode om die voedingstatus van aartappelplante te bepaal, word ook bespreek. Die gebruik van bemestingskedulering, besproeiingskedulering en klimatologiese modellering vir die beheer van laatroes op aartappels, as metodes van informasie tegnologie, word in groter besonderhede toegelig. Daar is aangetoon dat aanbevole peile vir verskeie nutriënte bestaan. Deur die neem van gereelde petiool ontledings kan hierdie peile suksesvol gedurende die opeenvolgende fenologiese stadia van die aartappelplant, gehandhaaf word. Daar is verder aangevoer dat deur die gebruik van verskeie metodes van besproeiingskedulering, deeglike besluitneming rakende die hoeveelheid en tydsberekening van 'n besproeiing, moontlik is. Die Plant-Plus sisteem as 'n metode om laatroes op aartappels te beheer, is toegelig. Resultate behaal in 'n kommersiële aanplanting het die geldigheid van klimatologiese modellering as 'n metode om produksierisiko - veral die risiko geassosieer met laatroes - te verminder, onderskryf. Die bestaan van resultate en instrumente soos voorgehou in Hoofstukke 3 en 4, onderskryf of bevestig die vermoede dat informasie tegnologie wel aangewend kan word om produksierisiko in aartappelverbouing te verminder. Die vraag is egter of dit ekonomies op plaasvlak aangewend kan word. Ten einde die persepsie met betrekking tot - die toepaslikheid en gereedheid van produsente in dié verband te evalueer, is 'n loodsvraelys na 40 respondente, wat die kommersiële aartappelprodusente regdeur Suid Afrika verteenwoordig, gestuur. Respondente is ge-evalueer met betrekking tot hul persepsie rakende die gebruik van informasie tegnologie in die dissiplines van finansiële bestuur, besproeiingskedulering, nutriëntskedulering en klimatologiese modellering vir die beheer van laatroes. Respondente was oor die algemeen positief met betrekking tot die nut van informasie tegnologie en dat onder seker voorwaardes, hulle dit sal gebruik. Marges in kommersiële aartappelverbouing is onder ernstige druk en is inderdaad besig om te krimp. Gevallestudies wat in hierdie ondersoek voorgehou is, asook resultate verkry uit die vraelys, dui aan dat informasie tegnologie nie alleen belangrik is vir die vermindering van risiko in aartappelverbouing me, maar ook noodsaaklik IS vir volhoubare en winsgewende aartappelproduksie. Dit kan gevolglik gestel word dat resultate verkry uit die loodsvraelys, daarop mag dui dat 'n statisties verifieerbare steekproef moontlik kan uitwys dat betroubare, bekostigbare en praktiese informasie tegnologie, soos voorgehou in hierdie ondersoek, wel 'n bestaansreg in die moderne verbouing van aartappels onder besproeiing het.

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Western Sydney, Hawkesbury, 2001.
A thesis submitted to the Faculty of Environmental Management and Agriculture, University of Western Sydney, in fulfilment of the rquirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy, 2001. Bibliography : p. 252-276.

On t.p.: Masters of Agricultural management.
Thesis (MAgricAdmin)--Stellenbosch University, 2002.
ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The need to take account of risk in agriculture must be part of every decision taken in agriculture. Yet risk is nothing to be too afraid of Risk is a choice rather than a fate. The actions we dare to take, which depend on how free we are to make choices, are what the theory of risk is all about. The task is rather to manage risk effectively, within the capacity of the farmer, business or group in order to withstand adverse outcomes. Some methods of managing risks are feasible for all types of farms. Others are only feasible for certain sizes and types of farms. Therefore, farmers in general need a systematic technique that will enable them to choose an efficient investment strategy from among all feasible strategies. Specifically, given n risky assets (such as the different enterprises in the PaarlIBerg River region), it is essential to seek a diversification strategy which yields a portfolio lying on the efficient frontier. The research question was whether different diversification models (Markowitz diversification model, Single Index Model and the Capital Asset Pricing Model) that are normally applied in capital markets for the construction of optimal diversified portfolios consisting out of different shares, are also applicable on risky portfolios in agriculture comprising different enterprises in the PaarlIBerg River region. The efficient frontier can be seen as the graphical representation of a set of portfolios that maximize expected return for each level of portfolio risk. The Microsoft Excel portfolio optimiser (SOLVER) programme was used to illustrate the investment proportions, expected returns, and standard deviations of the portfolios ofthe efficient frontier. The Single Index Model (SIM) can be used as an alternative to Markowitz diversification model. It drastically reduces the number of parameters needed to be estimated and yields the efficient set relatively easily without the technical difficulties characterising the fullrank solution. However, if the SIM assumptions are in contradiction to the actual data, the simplification of the calculations is achieved at the cost of getting imprecise results. The simplicity of SIM calculations was attained at a cost of constructing a sub-optimal portfolio, which does not lie on the corresponding efficient frontier. The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) reveals that there is a great deal of systematic risk in relation to the portfolio enclosed in this study. By using the CAPM it is possible to determine which part of the risk the producer can control (non-systematic risk) and which part the producer has no control over (systematic risk). The proportions of systematic risk that can be diversified away are small, relative to the total risk of the Farm Sector Portfolio. The success of these models depends on the efficiency of the market, as weU as a large, up-to-date and reliable data source. Many younger cultivars could not be included in this study, due to the limited availability of data. In the next few years as data become available, it will be possible to construct efficient frontiers out of a wider range of enterprises. Different enterprises and cultivars will increase the number of alternative uses for natural resources in the PaarlIBerg River region through diversification. This will result in more choices for the farmer, and more flexibility in the decision-making process. Without reliable data, the result will be "garbage in, garbage out."
AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: In elke besluit wat geneem word in landbou moet risiko as 'n faktor in ag geneem word. Tog is risiko nie iets om te vrees nie. Dit is eerder keuse as noodlot. Die stappe wat ons waag om te neem, wat afhang van hoe vry ons is om keuses te maak, is waaroor die teorie van risiko gaan. Die doel van die tesis is om risiko effektief te bestuur binne die vermoëns van die boer om sodoende negatiewe resultate die hoof te bied Sommige metodes van risikobestuur is lewensvatbaar vir alle soorte plase. Ander is slegs lewensvatbaar vir sekere groottes en tipes plase. Daarom benodig boere in die algemeen 'n tegniek wat dit vir hulle moontlik maak om 'n effektiewe beleggingstrategie te kies uit die verskillende uitvoerbare strategiee. Gegewe n as riskante aktiwiteite (soos die verskillende gewasse in die PaarllBergrivierstreek) is dit noodsaaklik om 'n diversifiseringstrategie te vind wat 'n portefeulje sal lewer wat raak aan die effektiewe grens. Die navorsingsvraag was of verskillende diversifiseringsmodelle (Markowitz diversifiseringsmodel (MVC), "Single Index Model" (SIM) en die "Capital Asset Pricing Model" (CAPM)) wat gewoonlik toegepas word in kapitaalmarkte vir die samestelling van optimale gediversifiseerde portefeuljes bestaande uit verskillende aandele, ook van toepassing sal wees op riskante portefeuljes in die landbou in die PaarlJBergrivierstreek, wat verskillende gewasse insluit. Die effektiewe grens kan gesien word as die grafiese voorstelling van 'n stel portefeuljes wat die verwagte winste vir elke vlak van portefeuljerisiko vermeerder. Die Microsoft Excel portefeulje optimeringsprogram (SOLVER) word gebruik om die beleggingsverhoudings, verwagte winste en standaardafwykings van die portefeuljes aan die effektiewe grens te illustreer. Die "Single Index Model" (SIM) kan gebruik word as 'n alternatief vir die Markowitz diversi:tikasiemodel. Dit verminder drasties die getal parameters en lewer maklik die effektiewe reeks, sonder die tegniese probleme wat ondervind word met die oplossing by die Markowitz model. Nietemin, indien die SIM die werklike data weerspreek sal die vereenvoudiging van die berekenings bereik word ten koste van onakurate resultate. Die eenvoud van die SIM is verkry ten koste van die samestelling van 'n suboptimale portfeulje, wat nie aan die ooreenstemmende effektiewe grens lê nie. Die "Capital Asset Pricing Model" (CAPM) wys dat daar baie sistematiese risiko gekoppel is aan die portfeulje ingesluit in hierdie studie. Deur gebruik temaak van die CAPM is dit moontlik om vas te stel watter deel van die risiko (nie-sistematies) die produsent kan beheer en watter deel die produsent nie kan beheer nie (sistematiese risiko). Die verhouding van sistematiese risiko wat weggediversifiseer kan word is klein in verhouding tot die algehele risiko van die boerderysektor portefeulje. Die sukses hang afvan die doeltreffendheid van die mark, sowel as 'n groot tot-op-datum en betroubare bron van data. Baie van die jonger aangeplante kultivars kan nie ingesluit word in hierdie studie nie as gevolg van beperkte data In die volgende paar jaar, soos data beskikbaar word, sal dit moontlik wees om effektiewe grense van 'n wye reeks gewasse saam te stel. Verskillende gewasse en kultivars sal die hoeveelheid alternatiewe gebruike van natuurlike hulpbronne in die PaarllBergrivierstreek vermeerder deur diversifikasie. Dit sal lei tot meer keuses vir die boer en meer buigsaamheid in die besluitnemingsproses. Sonder betroubare data kan betroubate resultate nie verkry word me.

This thesis studies the role accounting plays in the monitoring and reporting of soil quality in one sector of the agricultural industry, broadacre farming. A survey was conducted with broadacre farmers in the Loddon Catchment, Victoria, Australia. The primary aim was to determine the effectiveness accounting plays in providing information to decision makers relative to the productive capacity in soil quality and not just on profits. The capital asset in this study was defined as soil quality. Soils and soil quality in particular, are major elements in determining land value. The concern is decisions are being made by potential buyers and other decision makers, particularly policy makers, with regards to soil quality on the basis of incomplete and often misleading information. It is proposed that a major reason is due to the fact that different participants in the agricultural and accounting industries require and use different information. The accounting systems used by farmers are those that have been developed for the manufacturing sector which may not be appropriate for managing long-term, complex resources such as soil. The farmers themselves did not find formal accounting reports useful for decision making because these reports are based on uniform standards and market prices. The topic of soil quality and land degradation is viewed from two perspectives. In one perspective, the proprietary view; the accounting emphasis is on the ownership of assets and the change, both in income and capital, in these assets over time. In this case the accounting equation is seen as assets - liabilities = equities. The proprietor takes all the risk. A more recent perspective in accounting, the entity view, emphasises the assets whether financed from equity or debt and where the accounting equation is seen as assets = equities. The emphasis changes to the income flow from these assets and more interest is shown in current market prices as a reflection of the future value of these assets Profit is not necessarily a good indicator of what farmers are doing for their capital asset. There needs to be greater emphasis on costs undertaken for the conservation of soil. Those costs should be considered an investment and put into the balance sheet and not the profit and loss statement. The major finding of study demonstrates that decision making groups have different

This dissertation examines to what extent off-farm diversification may be an appropriate and accessible tool to mitigate the adverse effects from market failures and incompleteness in the crop and farm income insurance market. While the influence of the nonfarm sector has long been recognized as a primary force in shaping farm structure, off-farm income is rarely acknowledge as a risk management tool for operators and households of commercial farms. The dissertation develops a dynamic model that includes capital market imperfections, economies of scale in farm production, and the presence of adjustment costs in labor allocation decisions. The model provides a realistic characterization of the environment defining income and financial risks faced by farm operators, as well as the risk management alternatives available to them. It is found that introducing off-farm labor can substantially mitigate the adverse effects of farm income risk on farm operators' and households' welfare, even for larger commercial farms. However, the diversification of labor by the main operator seems to impose labor and managerial constraints that can reduce the intensity and technical efficiency of the farm production. Alternatively, diversification at the household level through the allocation of spousal labor off the farm provides benefits in mitigating the adverse effects of farm income risk on farm production and efficiency, and on operators and households welfare. It thus provides an efficient risk management alternative that is consistent with most rationales that are invoked to justify farm policies. Results suggest that the increasing incidence and importance of off-farm income within the farm population of most OECD countries is highly relevant in the design of effective farm policies This form of diversification can reduce the need and effectiveness of farm income stabilization polices. While it has been argued elsewhere that broader economic policies had a large influence in closing the income gap between farm and urban households, such policies may also have a role to play in addressing farm income risk issues and, in some cases, may represent more sustainable and efficient policy alternatives.

Master of Agribusiness
Department of Agricultural Economics
Bob Burton
The purpose of this thesis is to compare the net income and risk associated with custom farming, cash rent, and crop-share. This analysis will help provide insight on the best option for my 40 acres of farm land, which I recently was given from my mother. The 40 acres is located in Codington County, SD and has been previously in a corn, soybean, and wheat rotation. Another goal of the thesis is to create a business plan for Hauger Farm, which will lay out the activities involved for custom farming. The 40 acres will continue to be in a corn, soybean, and wheat rotation. A 12-year analysis was developed to determine the net income and risk associated with custom farming, cash rent, and crop-share. The analysis consisted of historical data from the past nine years while predicting the next three years. After creating the net income statement, the option providing the most income over the long-run was to have the land custom farmed. Custom farming also brought the most income variability or risk; while cash rent showed to have the lowest risk with the least variable income.

Over the past few decades, the organic sector in most developed countries has flourished. Growth in the sector has been paralleled by a substantial amount of research on several arenas (see Cobb et al. 1999; Robles et al. 2005; Jackson and Lampkin 2008; Lobley et al. 2009c; among others). Reasons for adopting organic farming have been studied in a variety of instances (Padel 2001a). Although there is a considerable body of evidence that supports the distinctly ‘risky nature’ of organic farming, our identification and understanding of how this nature affects farmers’ decisions whether or not to farm organically are limited (see, for example, Lockeretz 1995; Duram 1999; Midmore et al. 2001; Baecke et al. 2002; Hattam 2006). It seems that there has been widespread acceptance of the hypothesis that organic farmers are more likely to be risk-takers compared to non-organic farmers. Similarly, the hypothesis that organic farmers with Non-Farming Backgrounds (NFBs) may have different attitudes towards risk has not been investigated yet through detailed empirical analysis. Accordingly, this thesis seeks to analyse the importance of farmers’ willingness to take risk in organic farming in their decisions regarding the adoption of organic farming where it is assumed that there is a link between attitudes and behaviours. The thesis employs a variety of methods: a questionnaire; familiarisation; in-depth interviews; and secondary data. The findings of this thesis suggest that not all sources and types of risks associated with organic farming are differently perceived by non-organic and organic farmers. In Devon (i.e. the study area), more non-organic than organic farmers mentioned the existence of ‘farm-related risks’ and ‘risks related to farmers’ belief’. Further, ‘risks related to financial returns’ were perceived to be of concern by non-organic farmers compared to their organic counterparts. On the other hand, other types and sources of risks associated with organic farming were equally perceived to be of concern by both groups. As expected, the recent risky environment of organic farming played a significant role in this respect (see also de Buck et al. 2001; Flaten et al. 2005). The wider environment was moreover the cause of greater concern regarding production, market and institutional risks (as opposed to personal ones) among organic farmers in Devon at the time of the questionnaire survey, when compared to the level of concern at the time of adoption. This shows that perceptions of types and sources of risks associated with organic farming are subject to change across time (CRER 2002). Compared to their non-organic counterparts, organic farmers in Devon were willing to take risk in organic farming. With regard to risk in farming and to risk in general, more organic farmers expressed risk-taking attitudes than did their non-organic counterparts. Consequently, and based on the main reasons for adoption and non-adoption of organic farming, this thesis suggests that willingness to take risk in organic farming acts as an extremely significant trigger for the uptake of organic farming. This in turn confirms what has been emphasised by many researchers (see Baecke et al. 2002; Acs et al. 2005; Serra et al. 2008; among others). It also suggests that investigations into people’s behaviours and decisions in relation to a ‘risky activity’ should take into account their attitudes towards risk in that activity. This thesis, in common with other studies (e.g. Kaltoft 1999; Lobley et al. 2005), also shows evidence of heterogeneity among organic farmers. A small group of organic farmers in Devon from NFBs was in search of the ‘good life’ and wanted to produce public goods from organic farming. Although technical, market and institutional risks associated with organic farming were of concern to organic farmers from NFBs in this study, these farmers did not have distinct risk perceptions. In contrast, they had distinct attitudes towards risk in organic farming. More organic farmers from NFBs than organic farmers from Farming Backgrounds (FBs) were willing to take risk in organic farming. Finally, and in accordance with Morris and Potter’s (1995) work, this thesis has placed 79% of surveyed farmers in Devon on a typology which reflects the fact that farmers are not homogeneous. The ‘conditional non-organic farmers’ and ‘pragmatic organic farmers’ in this typology may, with varying degrees of ease, switch between organic and non-organic methods at any point in the future due to possible changes in their attitudes towards risk in organic farming. In contrast, the ‘resistant non-organic farmers’ and ‘committed organic farmers’ at the two extremes of this typology will very likely be resistant to changes in their current farming systems. Accordingly, a set of policy recommendations which may help to increase future organic adoption in the UK has been set forth.

BACKGROUND The Amish and Hutterites are U.S. agricultural populations whose lifestyles are remarkably similar in many respects but whose farming practices, in particular, are distinct; the former follow traditional farming practices whereas the latter use industrialized farming practices. The populations also show striking disparities in the prevalence of asthma, and little is known about the immune responses underlying these disparities. METHODS We studied environmental exposures, genetic ancestry, and immune profiles among 60 Amish and Hutterite children, measuring levels of allergens and endotoxins and assessing the microbiome composition of indoor dust samples. Whole blood was collected to measure serum IgE levels, cytokine responses, and gene expression, and peripheral-blood leukocytes were phenotyped with flow cytometry. The effects of dust extracts obtained from Amish and Hutterite homes on immune and airway responses were assessed in a murine model of experimental allergic asthma. RESULTS Despite the similar genetic ancestries and lifestyles of Amish and Hutterite children, the prevalence of asthma and allergic sensitization was 4 and 6 times as low in the Amish, whereas median endotoxin levels in Amish house dust was 6.8 times as high. Differences in microbial composition were also observed in dust samples from Amish and Hutterite homes. Profound differences in the proportions, phenotypes, and functions of innate immune cells were also found between the two groups of children. In a mouse model of experimental allergic asthma, the intranasal instillation of dust extracts from Amish but not Hutterite homes significantly inhibited airway hyperreactivity and eosinophilia. These protective effects were abrogated in mice that were deficient in MyD88 and Trif, molecules that are critical in innate immune signaling. CONCLUSIONS The results of our studies in humans and mice indicate that the Amish environment provides protection against asthma by engaging and shaping the innate immune response.

The onshore tank farm operations has become more useful and handy, as a result of increased international sea-borne trade, particularly, the unprecedented higher volume of petroleum products and hazardous chemicals traffic globally. The onshore tank farm is a facility used for safe discharge, loading and storage of petroleum products and other hazardous chemicals at the ports. It has become an important element in the supply chain system because of the increased universal energy demand and the fact that large number of modern tanker vessel is busy and efficiently moving cargo to different destinations around the world. The tank farm serves as a back-up facility to the ports. However, it has high degree of system-wide challenges of potential major incidents/accidents, as evidenced in various tank farm recorded accidents, which occurred at different times with estimated losses valued in millions of US dollars. The accidents could be catastrophic, leading to deaths, extensive damages and adverse impact on environment. To eliminate or minimize the risk of major incident/accidents, as well as minimize the magnitude and severity, it is acutely urgent to uncover and assess all potential hazards, with a view to adopt the best preventive/mitigative policy direction in the management of this strategic facility. This thesis presents multiple safety/risk assessment approaches, uncertainties treatments and decision making techniques that are capable of finding optimal solutions that will ensure safety of tank farm operations. The standard tools of analysis employed in this tank farm operational risk assessment are Failure Mode Effect Analysis (FMEA), Faulty Tree Analysis (FTA), fuzzy logic, Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to the Ideal Solution (TOPSIS). Firstly, the FMEA-Fuzzy Rule Based (FRB) is applied in Hazard Identification (HAZID) and risk evaluation of tank farm operations. The methodology is utilized to discover five possible causes of catastrophic accidents in tank farm operations. The causes/hazards are described as the automatic shut-down oil safety valve failure, pipe corrosion protection system failure, automatic tank gauge system failure, leak detection device system failure, and secondary containment monitoring system failure. In the risk assessment conducted, the leak detection system failure was identified as the riskiest hazard using the Expected Utility Theory. Consequent upon the need for further investigation, another technique, Fuzzy Fault Tree (FFT), as novel model is used successfully to investigate and understand the causes of the leak detection system failure. The main aim of these two exercises is to assess risks and facilitate proper manage of these risks in tank farm operations, in order to forestall accidents that could cause damage to the facility, workers and the port environment. Nevertheless, the tank farm operations need to be optimized by ensuring the efficiency and safety of all systems and sub-systems through the adoption of best safety management decisions, which is achieved by employing AHP-TOPSIS model. This method is used to solve a complex multi-criteria decision-making problem such as selection of best Safety Control Design (SCD) among various SCDs identified. Finally, the results produced from the developed models and frameworks are summarized and other areas where they can effectively make impacts in HAZID, risk assessment and safety improvement are defined.

Technical Due Diligence (TDD) is an extensive document review process in which a complete assessment is made of all potential risks to the realisation or successful operation of a wind farm project. The goal of this assessment is to determine thecommercial feasibility of the proposed project. TDD assessments are extensive undertakings, and potentially subject to the bias of the individual reviewer. This aim of this research project is to develop a methodology to assist in the completion of TDD reviews at the host company for this research project, Mecal Wind Farm Services B.V., which will reduce the subjectivity of the TDD analysis and allow for objective comparison between different projects. A methodology was developed which assists the TDD assessment process. This methodology uses the combined judgements of individual reviewer and project managerto apply a weighting to the risk assessments carried out as part of the review. Aspreadsheet tool was created, based on this methodology, to assist the completion ofTDD assessments at Mecal.The spread sheet tool was validated by reference to historic project data at Mecal. The output of the tool compared well with the outcome of the project, proving that theconcept and methodology of the tool is sound.

In 2018, forest fires occurred in Sweden, which put high pressure on rescue services and society. Several parts of the country were subject to a fire ban. The purpose of the document study is to investigate whether forest fires could become a continuous danger for municipalities and their inhabitants in the future. The study also strives to investigate measures to combat forest fires and whether these measures are adequate. In order to work in the right direction and not lose course, three questions were asked, "What patterns do we see overtime regarding forest fires?", "What measures have been taken to combat forest fires?" and "Are measures against forest fires sufficient?". These issues helped to select research evidence and the right empirical material.With critical realism as a scientific approach, the problems with forest fires were highlighted and research work started. By applying applied geography / forest geography, its causes and risks could be studied. With the mapping / mapping, the potential forest fire risk could be mapped in the future. Following a survey of potential forest fire risk in the future, it turned out that Skåne risks being most affected by forest fires due to changing climate in the region. This made the study limited to Skåne. The County Administrative Board of Skåne's risk and vulnerability analysis for 2014 and the Land use plan for Östra Göinge became the documents that were analyzed in this document study. By analyzing the risk and vulnerability analysis, it explains what risks are considered to be a potential danger, how the danger is mitigated and how resources and measures are prioritized. In the overview plan we can see if the forest fire risk was taken into account and if so how. This study shows that the risk of forest fires will increase in the future due to. changing weather conditions. It also shows that risk and vulnerability analysis do not take into account the change, the increased risk and lack a long-term perspective on risk and vulnerability. The study also shows that information on what are forest fire influencing factors such as weather, vegetation and topography are not taken into account. Land use plans need to pay more attention to forest fire risk and report measures to combat it. Keywords: Forest fire, Risk, Fire risk, Physical planning, Risk analysis
2018 förekom skogsbränder i Sverige vilket satte hög press på räddningstjänst och samhället. Flera delar av landet rådde eldningsförbud. Syftet med dokumentstudien är att undersöka om skogsbränderna kan komma att bli en kontinuerlig fara för kommuner och dess invånare i framtiden. Studien strävar även efter att undersöka åtgärder för bekämpning av skogsbränder samt om dessa åtgärder är tillräckliga. För att arbeta mot rätt riktning och inte tappa kurs sattes tre frågeställningar, ”Vilka mönster ser vi övertid gällande skogsbränder?”, ”Vilka åtgärder har vidtagits för att bekämpa skogsbränder?” och ”Är åtgärder mot skogsbränder tillräckliga?”. Dessa frågeställningar hjälpte till med att välja forskningsunderlag och rätt empiriskt material. Med kritisk realism som vetenskapligt angreppssätt uppmärksammades problematiken med skogsbränder och forskningsarbetet påbörjades. Genom att tillämpa applied geography/tillämpad geography kunde skogsbränder, dess orsaker och risker studeras. Med mapping/kartläggning kunde den potentiella skogsbrandsrisken i framtiden kartläggas. Efter kartläggning av potentiell skogsbrandsrisk i framtiden visade det sig att Skåne riskerar att drabbas mest av skogsbränder pga. förändrat klimat i regionen. Detta gjorde att studien avgränsades till Skåne. Länsstyrelsen Skånes risk- och sårbarhetsanalys för 2014 och Översiktsplan för Östra Göinge blev dokumenten som analyserades i denna dokumentstudie. Genom att analysera risk- och sårbarhetsanalysen, förklaras vilka risker som bedöms vara en potentiell fara, hur faran motarbetas samt hur resurser och åtgärder prioriteras. I översiktsplanen kan vi se om skogsbrandsrisken beaktats och i så fall hur. Denna studie påvisar att risken för skogsbränder kommer att öka i framtiden pga. förändrade väderförhållanden. Den visar även att risk- och sårbarhetsanalys inte beaktar förändringen, den ökade risken samt saknar ett långsiktigt perspektiv på risk och sårbarhet. Studien visar även att information om vad som är skogsbrandspåverkande faktorer som väder, vegetation och topografi inte beaktas. Översiktsplaner behöver uppmärksamma skogsbrandsrisken mer och redovisa åtgärder för att bekämpa den. Nyckelord: Skogsbrand, Risk, Brandrisk, Fysisk planering, Riskanalys

Master of Agribusiness
Department of Agricultural Economics
Christine Wilson
For five generations, Lauver Family Farms has been founded upon faith, family, and farming near Rockwell City, IA. It is these core principles and beliefs that drive everyday actions through conservation minded decisions, community involvement, and a passion for the land. Presently, the farm is operated by Grandfather Don Lauver, Father Kevin Lauver, and sons Andrew and Jacob Lauver. The Lauver Family Farm was originally purchased in 1942 by Joseph Gordon, who at his peak held 700 acres in his name. In 1945 Glen and Viola Lauver purchased what is now Lauver Family Farms, located on the Des Moines Lobe land region of Iowa. The Des Moines Lobe is a glacial lobe encompassing rich, heavy soils with high organic matter, requiring dredge ditches and tiling in many areas. Through a commitment to conservation, corn and soybean acres are rotated annually. With regard to corn cultivation and planting practices, soybean stubble is field cultivated once, followed by planting. On soybean ground, the corn stalks are disk ripped, and then field cultivated twice before planting soybeans. The goal is to minimize trips through the field by exhibiting these conservation tillage practices. If land has much slope or erosion potential, then it is only disked and then planted. Currently, the farm is comprised of 400 acres of row crops and 50 acres of wetland, 30 acres on the Home Farm and 20 acres on the Obye Farm, enrolled in the Conservation Reserve Program in 2002. Kevin and Don Lauver, the primary decision makers, requested an analysis of the environmental and economic impact of the Conservation Reserve Program on the farm. By taking acres out of production for at least 10 to 15 years that perennially drown due to often wet soil conditions, they will be able to utilize the Conservation Reserve Program as a risk management tool. Now, Lauver Family Farms is faced with a decision to determine if a 10 or 15 year enrollment in the Conservation Reserve Program has the greatest economic and environmental return, since the current enrollment expires in 2016. Procedures and methods were established to meet the purpose of this thesis to determine which option was the most profitable long-term for the operation. The purpose includes evaluating the sources of data relevant to Lauver Family Farms decision by utilizing decision tools to make a collective decision on the future of the farmland and opportunity costs analyzed. Lauver Family Farms’ objective for this project was to determine how the Conservation Reserve Program provides a return on the investment of the decision to re-enroll, or even enroll more acres in the program. This analysis will be used each time an enrollment decision must be made, and will be of significant importance as sons Andrew and Jacob Lauver make management decisions in the years to come.

The objective of this paper is to analyze the impact of farm-level risk on bank performance in the state of North Dakota. Farm-level risk has been quantified into a single measure of the volatility of net farm income. Bank performance was examined through two profitability ratios, ROE and ROA, as well as a measure of liquidity risk, the financing gap ratio. Using random effects regression model, relationships between performance measures and bankspecific, agricultural and macroeconomic variables were examined. Panel data from banks and farms in North Dakota for the years 2005-2014 were included. Each type of variable showed significance to performance ratios indicating meaningful relationships with internal factors and macroeconomic factors alike. Results also showed that variability in business operations of bank financed companies is also relevant to bank performance. Continued risk management within financial institutions is vital to maintaining or increasing performance.

Satisfactory collaboration regarding children and youth in need of a comprehensive support is particularly important. Despite extensive research on collaborative work, knowledge of long term development of the collaboration process is lacking. The present thesis concerns inter-organizational collaboration within the framework of a former Swedish policy effort – focusing collaboration between schools, social services, police and the child and youth psychiatry – for the benefit of children and young people in distress or at risk. Applying a critical realist perspective, the overall aim of the thesis is to describe how former collaboration projects develop over time, and to identify significant mechanisms within this development. Through three questionnaire studies, the collaborative process development within the same collaborative settings is described (n=66) over a period of close to seven years. Estimations of 58 collaboration quality indicators within three categories *rules and regulations, *structural aspects and *shared perspectives/ consensus were collected at baseline in 2008, after one year at the final project stage in 2009, as well as five years after the project period (and the policy effort) ended, in 2014 (n=38). Two developmental trends occur: I) an overall positive trend and II) a negative trend on a comprehensive level. I) Collaboration on the target group has increased over time, are mainly incorporated into permanent organizational structures and is judged to have worked well/very well over time. II) Overall deteriorations of high estimates of the 58 quality indicators for collaborations is seen over the five year period, following the project period. However, less dramatic changes is noted on quality indicators concerning shared perspectives/consensus than on matters regarding rules and regulations and structural aspects. Five mechanisms of particular importance for the collaboration development are identified: anchoring, holistic perspectives, engagement, knowledge and clarity.

The objective of this study is to evaluate the costs of reducing pesticide, nitrogen, phosphorus, and sediment losses of a representative risk-neutral and risk-averse peanut-cotton farmer in Southeast Virginia. Five currently popular rotations and eight alternative conservation rotations are evaluated for the representative farm. The Erosion-Productivity Impact Calculator (EPIC) model is used to simulate pesticide, nitrogen, phosphorus, and soil loss from each rotation using actual rainfall and temperature data from the study area. A Target-MOTAD mathematical programming model, REPVAFARM, is developed and solved with GAMS. The objective of the farmer is to maximize expected net return, while meeting a target income with certain allowable expected shortfall from the income target. The farmer is also constrained by land, labor, peanut quota, and levels of pesticide, nitrogen, phosphorus, and soil losses. Major findings of this study are: reducing pesticide, nitrogen, phosphorus, and soil losses imposes costs to the farmer regardless of his risk attitude, with costs ranking from high to low in the order of reducing all pollutant losses, reducing nitrogen losses, reducing phosphorus losses, reducing soil losses, and reducing pesticide losses. Costs of reducing pollutant losses are higher for more risk-averse farmers than for less risk-averse and risk-neutral farmers implying that risk-aversion is an obstacle to the adoption of alternative conservation practices. Reducing pesticide losses has little impact on other pollutants. Reducing pesticide and nitrogen losses simultaneously achieves similar reductions in soil loss and phosphorus loss.
Master of Science

This thesis examines the use of precision agriculture data, specifically yield maps, for makingsite-specific economic decisions for improved farm management. The adoption of precisionagriculture on farms has allowed producers to collect a greater quantity and more specificinformation about production than ever before. With such information, site-specific decisions canbe made. Incorporating economic data with yield map data, two primary decision examples aredeveloped: defining areas of production and nonproduction and managing temporal risk spatiallyacross a field. Included with the production/ nonproduction decision are the effects that landtenure arrangements and risk aversion levels have on the decision. The risk maps are developedusing break-even analysis, the coefficient of variation, and a mean-variance framework, all based ona twenty year average of temporal net returns, measured spatially. The risk maps are repeatedincorporating a crop insurance option, a commonly used risk management tool. Results show thatdeveloping these maps can be used by agricultural producers to help with their decision making. Byincorporating these maps into the decision-making process, decisions can be made to increase farmprofitability.

The aim of this study is to evaluate the risk-return efficiency of credit policies for managing portfolio credit risk of banking institutions. The focus of the empirical analysis is on the impact of risk pricing and problem loan restructuring on bank risk and returns using a simulation model that represents an operating environment of lenders servicing the Australian farm sector. Insurance theory principles and agency relationships between a borrower and a lender are integrated into the portfolio theory framework. The portfolio theory framework is then couched in terms of the capital budgeting approach to generate a portfolio return distribution function for a particular credit policy regime. Borrowers are segmented by region, industry, loan maturity and credit risk class. Each credit risk class defines risk constraints on which a stochastic simulation model may be developed for credit scoring an average borrower in a portfolio segment. The stochastic simulation method is then used to generate loan security returns for a particular credit policy regime through time with loan return outcomes weighted by the number of borrowers in a segment to give measures of portfolio performance. Stochastic dominance efficiency criteria are used to choose between distributions of NPV of bank returns measured for a number of credit policy alternatives. The findings suggest that banks servicing the Australian farm sector will earn more profit without additional portfolio risk if the maximum limit to which pricing accounts for default risk in loan reviews is positively linked to volatility of gross incomes of farm business borrowers. Importantly, credit-underwriting standards must also be formulated so as to procure farm business borrowers of above average productivity with loans that are fully secured using fixed assets. The results of simulations also suggest that restructuring loans in event of borrower default provide for large benefits compared to a �no restructuring� option.

South Africa has become, after deregulation, part of the global village. This brought about many business opportunities, but with it came many challenges with respect to grain marketing. It is well-known facts that the marketing of grain has become quite a challenge in S.A. South African producers do not receive support from government as far as input subsidies and significant import tariffs are concerned and have to make sure that they stay ahead of rising input costs in order to produce maize on a profitable basis. It is therefore extremely important for any maize farmer in South Africa to make use of the best grain marketing strategies at his or her disposal. Choosing the best grain marketing strategy will not only assist the producers to receive the best price for their produce, but will also serve as a very effective risk mitigation strategy. The general objective of the study is to examine different marketing strategies and to determine the optimal maize marketing strategy for a representative farm located in the Mpumalanga Highveld for a specific season under volatile marketing and environmental conditions. A representative farm for the Mpumalanga Highveld is constructed, based on production data, budgeted financial statements, general financial management and the complete farm setup as obtained from a farmer study group located in the district of Middelburg, Mpumalanga Highveld, The most general maize marketing strategies available for the representative farm is identified and discussed as far as each of their advantages and disadvantages are concerned. The complete farm setup for the representative farm is used to develop a budgeting and maize marketing model. This is done in conjunction with three different scenarios, which cover the most frequent circumstances in which producers can find themselves. With the help of this model, the optimal marketing strategies are determined which yields the optimal profit and minimize price risk for the representative farm. Copyright
Dissertation (MSc(Agric))--University of Pretoria, 2009.
Agricultural Economics, Extension and Rural Development
unrestricted

Lameness is one of the most important welfare issues in the dairy industry with all cows being at risk during their productive life. It decreases milk production, compromises fertility and increases the chance of being culled. To reduce the likelihood of lameness in cows, a thorough knowledge of the risk factors is essential. Risk factors have been found to differ between farming systems which highlighted the need for a project to identify risk factors of lameness in NSW pasture-based dairies. The thesis reviews the literature on risk factors pertaining to lameness in dairy cattle worldwide with focus on the main aspects of lameness regarding pasture-based dairy farming. First study investigates the prevalence and the potential risk factors for lameness in 62 pasture-based dairies in NSW with the aim to identify risk factors for lameness and to provide the industry with an indication as to the relative contribution of these risks so that dairy producers could allocate their resources to areas most likely to have the greatest impact when planning a prevention strategy. The data gathered through the interviews with farmers focuses on their perception of lameness in their herds. International experience suggests farmers’ perception of lameness are less than the true prevalence, which was proved to be the case in NSW, Australia. The reduced perception of lameness appears to be associated with delayed treatment and poor treatment outcome. Treatment outcomes may be further compromised by almost 30% of farmers or farm staff not having undergone training as to how to effectively trim and treat lame cows. The final study gathers data on wooden hoof blocks commonly used in treatment of lame cows. This study assesses the association between wood density, longevity, and wear characteristics of wooden hoof blocks. It was found that the hardness of the commercial blocks is insufficient to provide an appropriate duration of protection for healing claw lesions.

There is a growing interest in tidal energy, owing to its predictable nature in comparison to other renewable sources. In the case of the UK, its importance also lies on the availability of exploitable areas as well as their total capacity, which is estimated to cover more than 20% of the country demand. However, the level of development of this kind of technology is still far behind other types of renewable energy. However, several studies focused on a variety of individual devices, followed by more recent research on the deployment of large arrays or tidal farms. Potential sites for energy extraction can be found in narrows between islands and the coast or estuaries. The latter present some advantages for the installation and the connection to the grid but estuaries are often prone to flood risk from tides and surges. Therefore, the objective of this thesis is to evaluate the effect that very large groups of turbines could have on peak water levels during flooding events in the case of being deployed in estuarine areas. For that purpose, a new methodology has been developed, which implies the use of a numerical model (MIKE 21 by DHI), and it has been demonstrated against a real case study in the UK: the Solway Firth estuary. Another objective has consisted of integrating in this thesis the results from detailed CFD modelling and optimisation techniques involved in the project. A literature review has been carried out in order to identify the current state of the art for the different subjects considered in the thesis. Different aspects of the numerical model used for this study (MIKE 21) have been presented and the modelling of the turbines within the code has been validated against experimental and CFD data. The procedure to include large numbers of turbines in the code is also developed. An analysis has been done of the different estuaries existing in the UK suitable for tidal energy extraction, identifying their main geometrical features. Based on this, idealised models of estuaries have been used to assess the influence that the channel geometry could have on the impact of tidal farms under extreme water levels. The effect has been measured by comparing the results of the numerical model between the case with and without turbines under different flooding scenarios. Finally, the same methodology has been applied to a real case study selected from the previous group of estuaries namely the Solway Firth. An initial model has been created, according to the available data at the start of the research, which contained some errors related to the water depth at the intertidal areas in the upper estuary. Therefore, when a more realistic dataset became available, an improved model was created. The improved model has been used to assess the effects of tidal farms in the estuary under a coastal flooding event. It is concluded that there is significant influence of the channel geometry over the locations where the maximum changes in water levels due to the tidal farms will happen. Nevertheless, the effects seem to be more relevant in terms of the decrease rather than the increase of peak water levels for all geometries and the maximum changes seem to be in the order of dm. This is in agreement with the results of the Solway Firth models and can be summarised as a positive net effect over flood risk. On the other hand, a concern has been raised about the impact on intertidal areas, which could be the subject of future research.

Includes bibliographical references (leaves 79-84).
[Motivation] A high prevalence of alcohol consumption and the negative impact of alcohol on rural communities in the Western Cape have been linked to coercive labour practices and the ease of availability of cheap, low quality white wine, typically packaged in foil bags (papsakke). A process is underway to regulate papsakke out of the market. However, limited research has been conducted on the use and impact of papsakke. [Aims and objectives] This study aims to determine the prevalence of, and risk factors for papsak consumption and problem amongst farm workers in the rural Western Cape. It also explores the attitudes of drinkers with respect to their choice of alcohol type and the practices of papsak drinkers, in order to identify target groups for community level interventions and to inform the consent and monitoring of developmental and/or restrictive interventions. [Study design] A cross sectional analytical study performed as a post hoc analysis of data obtained from a larger study on papsakke which included a farm worker survey. [Subjects] 461 female and male farm workers resident on predominantly wine grape producing farms in Stellenbosch, Franschoek and Vredendal in the rural Western Cape Province from February to May of 2004.

Farm dwellers in the North West Province have been identified as an extremely vulnerable group. in terms of physical, physiological and mental health. Therefore the North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus (Focus Area 9.1) launched the FLAGH study with the broad aim of gaining reliable information on the reasons for and contributing factors to their poor health status, which could be used to design appropriate intervention programmes. The research formed part of this multidisciplinary study and focused on farm dwellers' experience of the farm as the environment in which they live and work. While a great deal is already known about the psychological strengths of people that protect them against psychological malfunctioning, far less is known about environmental elements protecting people against adversity. From a social work perspective it is a long-cherished conviction that individual outcomes are the results of a transactional process between personal and environmental influences. However, it is also a conviction that is often not reflected in social work practice. Strength-based assessment models are, for example, overwhelmingly concerned with individual human factors, while practice guidelines and specific practice knowledge about environmental factors are lagging behind. This situation consequently pointed to the need for further theoretical and empirical research. The concept of social niche was identified as a possible framework for organising strengths and risks as experienced by a specific group within a specific context (in this case people living on farms). Against this background a research need was identified to develop an approach to assess environmental strengths and risks. This was done by means of a literature study and an empirical investigation. The strengths perspective and the concept of social niche are described and evaluated as a paradigm and theoretical construct (or perspective) for developing an approach to assess environmental strengths and risks. It is concluded that, from the strengths perspective, an environment can be considered strong when it consists of human beings who are connected to their innate strengths and capacity for healing, where there is community, membership, mutuality and connection among people and the environment, and people who experience the environment as strong and contribute to creating a strong environment. From the social niche perspective, an optimal niche refers to conditions and resources that would enable people to function at the best possible level, while a realised niche refers to the more limited spectrum of conditions and resources which allows people to survive. These niche types have enabling and entrapping elements to a greater or lesser degree. It was found that the social niche concept does provide a theoretical approach to assessing the environment in terms of strengths and risks and gives better insight into the result of the transactional process between person and environment. It was also found that the niche construct does not fully reflect the assumptions of the strengths perspective in terms of mainly two points: (1) the belief in the inherent strengths and capacity for healing of people (human agency), and (2) understanding reality as it is subjectively constructed. Based on this evaluation, it was thus endeavoured to broaden both the description of social niche, based on a critical evaluation of the ecological analogy, and to reflect more fully the strengths perspective. A revised definition of social niche is proposed and each of the niche components presented in the definition are discussed, evaluated and in some instances broadened, as indicated earlier. Farm dwellers' experience of their environment is explored and described, following a qualitative approach in order to promote an understanding of their specific experience from their own viewpoint. The social niche is used, in addition, as a tentative conceptual framework to describe the main dimensions of their experience. Analysis of the farm dwellers' narratives produced six categories (each with several sub-categories), namely: employment (unhealthy working conditions for men, employment security threatened, grievance procedures unsatisfactory, limited work opportunities and underemployment of women); income and spending (inadequate income and high cost of living, debt trap, a longing for the former practice of 'mahala', and supplementing income); housing (housing security threatened, and availability and access to housing outside the neighbourhood a concern); transportation (distance, means of transport and cost involved are major considerations); community life (the importance of family and friends, lack of connection between residents, community life in the past being better, and ambivalence about the employer as support system); and people, places and services outside the immediate farm environment (importance of extended family, church as a source of strength, and health services a link with the outside world). It is concluded that numerous entrapping elements are present in the account of farm dwellers of their life on the farm, namely a lack of tangible resources, a lack of social resources and a low sense of power. The entrapping nature of farm dwellers' social niche, however, can not only be understood in terms of lack of social and tangible resources. The experiences and the meanings the farm dwellers attach to their environment provide the key to a better understanding of the living experiences of farm dwellers and the entrapment contained in their narratives. However, it also reveals their experience of a few enabling elements within this environment. Based on the critical analysis of viewing the environment from a strengths perspective, the evaluation and broadening of the concept of social niche, and findings from the fieldwork done with farm dwellers, a social niche approach for assessing environmental strengths and risks is proposed. The goal of the social niche assessment approach is to provide a framework to review people's environmental strengths and risks/stressors, based on their own experience and understanding, in collaboration with another person (social worker), so as to co-construct a description of their human environment. A diagram and description of the approach is provided. This approach has already been validated through peer evaluation.
Thesis (Ph.D. (Social Work))--North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2004.

Master of Science
Department of Agricultural Economics
Elizabeth Yeager
The main objective of this analysis was to examine the profitability and efficiency of Kansas farms in order to draw inferences among the profitability, efficiency, and growth of agricultural producers in Kansas. The time period analyzed was 2005 to 2015. Farms in the sample include a mix of 564 crop and/or livestock operations with 11 years of continuous data through the Kansas Farm Management Association data-bank. Efficiency scores were calculated to determine how close each farm was to the production possibilities frontier, or their cost efficiency. Profitability measures, (operating profit margin and return on assets), were obtained for each farm. The profitability dynamics in 2014 and 2015 for these farms changed compared to previous years. Crop farms generated less profits in 2014 and 2015 compared to previous years, and relative profits from average fluctuated more for sampled farms in 2014 and 2015. Farms were also categorized into risk classes. These classifications aim at distinguishing farms that are profitable or not, and their level of solvency, utilizing their net farm income from operations and their debt to asset ratio. Farms are migrating from the low risk classification, showing that Kansas farms are becoming less profitable, but are not transitioning to a higher risk solvency state. These farms will need to focus on utilizing their inputs more efficiently to keep their solvency levels in check. After analyzing persistence in profitability, the results suggest that farms with higher return on assets tend to be more solvent, but farms with higher operating profit margin tend to be less solvent. The analysis also suggests that there might have been persistence in profits in the years prior to 2015. The analysis of relative positioning of farms in terms of return on assets suggests that during 2007-2011 some farms were able to consistently differentiate themselves by generating either below or above normal profits. Some farms were able to become more profitable in 2012 and 2013, while others lagged behind supported by regression results that signaled divergence of profitability levels. The relative positioning analysis for operating profit margin indicates that farms had similar operating profit margins from 2010 through 2014, and divergence occurred in 2015 by farms that were able to differentiate themselves more through the average operating profit margin. Next the efficiencies of the farms were examined. Analysis of the efficiency scores suggests that the cost efficiencies of Kansas farms are not explained by risk classification significantly, but the crop-labor percentage ratio significantly explains the cost efficiency of the farms. The relationship between cost efficiency and profitability measures proved to be the strongest out of the three performance measures due to their correlation. The final step in the analysis was to examine farm characteristics of the top performing farms. Farms were ranked by profitability measurements and the efficiency measure. Variables of interest that were significantly different between the top 25 percent and the bottom 25 percent of farms include total farm assets, value of farm production, crop-labor percentage, crop acres, number of workers, and age of operators.

Master of Agribusiness
Department of Agricultural Economics
Vincent Amanor-Boadu
Business plans are a necessity for new ventures. The plan helps to set goals for the business, establishes a good product and customer base, looks at competition, provides management strategies and develops a financial plan and succession/exit strategy. This thesis assesses the business plan that was developed for a 9,300 acre farm in Southwestern Wisconsin from an ex post perspective when assumptions about the future have been realized. It assesses the strategic direction, objectives and financial projections that were made and the assumptions that underlay the projections. The research provides a discussion of a family farming operation that ultimately became a banking investment at the cost of many family members’ lifestyles. The farm did continue on, but not with the same operators that had goals to build a new venture from the existing one. This research evaluates the financial information to determine whether the farm could have been a feasible proposition under the specified conditions. Also, the business plan is evaluated using hindsight information to assess the errors in assumptions and their effects on the projected cash flows, profitability and balance sheet situations. The research assesses the role that the template approach to the business planning process played in the results, and explored if the process model or the Cascade Approach® might have produced different recommendations. The entrepreneurial behaviors under uncertainty are discussed and evaluated, with the hubris being an underlying factor in the plan. It is concluded that the assumptions entrepreneurs make are often over-optimistic. There is, therefore, a need to temper entrepreneurs’ enthusiasm about their projects with reality to control their natural hubris.

Rural areas of most developing nations are dependent on agriculture. In the most remote areas, sometimes referred to as the â less favored areasâ (LFAs), the economic importance of agriculture is paramount. An important obstacle to development in these areas is that agriculture is at the mercy of nature, which may not be particularly friendly. These areas have remained remote due to natural shortcomings causing economic development to occur slower than more advantaged areas elsewhere. Cochabamba Department, in central Bolivia, is home to some of these LFAs. Most Cochabamban producers are located in the â high climatic riskâ (CIP-WPA) Andean highlands. Farmers in LFAs surrounding Cochabamba city produce (among other things) potatoes for market and home consumption; the potato is the main source of food and income for most residents. Previous studies and anecdotal evidence have shown that Andean potato farmers may plant upwards of 10 varieties of potatoes on small amounts of land (Brush, 92). Because of the low rates of improved crop variety adoption in many LFAâ s, efforts are needed to understand farmer objectives and needs with respect to variety characteristics. The goal of this study is to determine how exposure to risk factors impacts potato planting decisions through demand for potato variety characteristics. The main source of data for this project is a survey of 145 farm households implemented during the last quarter of 2007 in 3 communities of Cochabamba. These data were used to estimate an econometric model that evaluated the role of household, regional and variety characteristics in farmer decision making. Decisions about planting each variety were modeled with a Tobit framework and estimated by the Heckman method (as suggested by Cameron and Trivedi), with the impact of individual variety characteristics restricted to be the same for each variety. Several hypotheses were confirmed such as the importance of yield, though many results were different than expected. Blight tolerance was found to be negatively correlated with selection, although most farmers report taking some kind of action to decrease damage from blight. Possible explanations for this negative correlation are discussed in this paper, and strategies for overcoming these obstacles are suggested.
Master of Science

The aim of this thesis is the creation of a business plan in order to set up a business. The business is specialised in the breeding of goats and direct distribution of products made from goat's milk. A fundamental part of the plan is constituted by the conducted strategic analysis. The basis of the analysis compilation were data from prominent Czech organizations, an analysis of the market, and communication with competitors and experts. There were also similarities in other important parts of the plan. This is represented by a marketing, production and financial plan. The marketing plan provides information about used marketing strategies. The production plan informs about technologies and the volume of production. In order to validate the viability of the existent aim, the research was conducted on the basis of the financial plan. One of the benefits of this paper is the identification and elaboration of all important aspect influencing the initiation and subsequent functioning of a particular business, as well as the proposition of solutions for problematic areas.

Abstract   The permit application process for offshore wind farms (OWF) in Sweden conceivably requires a comprehensive and transparent complement within risk management. The NETEP framework (covering risks concerning navigation, economics, technology, environment and politics), based on a futures planning mechanism (STEEP) has consequently been brought forward as a structure for the application of FMECA (Failure Mode, Effects, and Criticality Analysis) methodology to the permit application process of the Swedish offshore wind farm sector. FMECA, originating from the aeronautical and automobile industries, presents a systematic method for the prediction of future failure in a product, part or process, to evaluate the consequences of that failure and to suggest possible measures for its mitigation or eradication. Its application to attitude and acceptance, safety and environmental effect remains, however, limited which creates the research gap for this thesis. Three Swedish offshore wind farm (OWF) projects in the Baltic Sea area (Lillgrund, Taggen and Trolleboda) were put forward as case studies for use in the evaluation of the proposed FMECA-NETEP methodology, which was approached in two stages. The first evaluation stage results showed that the model accommodates the precautionary principle, the consideration of stakeholder viewpoints, the mitigation of negative effects, the analysis of alternative sites, the observation of relevant legislation and the utilisation of contemporary research. In the subsequent stage of evaluation, the factor for incorporation into the adapted model was intra- and inter-sector cumulative impact. Results showed that positive cumulative impact cannot be illustrated by the model whereas neutral and negative cumulative impact can.  The model’s added value is that it facilitates decision making by providing a rigorous, transparent and structured methodology, the holistic approach of which provides a sound basis for the incorporation of contemporary research.

This research studied Quebec producers’ environmental attitudes and perceptions on environmentally friendly practices on farm, such as an environmental management system (EMS), using a survey. The contingency valuation method (CVM) was applied to elicit producers’ mean willingness to accept compensation (WTA) of adopting an EMS on farm, in terms of the percentage of direct costs of implementation. Factors affecting the mean WTA were studied to examine their influences. The results show that Quebec producers adopt environmental practices extensively and face many challenges in agro-environmental management. The results also show that producers have mixed perceptions in the benefits and difficulties of environmentally friendly practices and a negative attitude towards environmental regulations. The mean WTA of Quebec producers is estimated at 79.73%. French speaking and English speaking farmers have the mean WTA of 79.91% and 71.75%, respectively. The regression analysis identifies that producers’ knowledge level on EMS, their attitudes towards the benefits and difficulties, internet access and the use of a computer in farm management are significant variables with respect to the mean WTA.
Cette recherche a pour but l’étude de la perception et l’attitude des producteurs agricoles du Québec sur les pratiques culturales respectueuses de l’environnement tel que le système de la gestion environnementale (SGE) à partir d’un sondage. La méthode l’evaluation contingente est utilisée afin de mesurer la volonté d’accepté la compensation (VAC) d’adopter le systeme de gestion environnementale au sein de l’entreprise en terme de pourcentage de coûts directs d’adoption comme compensation. Dans cette recherche, les facteurs influençant la moyenne de la VAC seront étudiés. Les résultats de l’analyse montrent que bon nombre de producteurs québécois adoptent déjà les pratiques respectueuses de l’environnement et font face à de nombreux défis en gestion agro-environnementale. Ces résultats montrent également que les producteurs confondent leur perception concernant les avantages et les difficultés des pratiques culturales respectueuses de l’environnement et une attitude peu négative envers les lois environnementales. La moyenne de la VAC des agriculteurs québécois est estimé à 79,73%. Les agriculteurs francophones démontre une VAC de 79,91% alors que celui des agriculteurs anglophones est de 71,75%, respectivement. D’après cette étude, le niveau de connaissance des agriculteurs sur le SGE, leurs attitudes envers les avantages et difficultés, l’accès à l’internet et l’usage d’un ordinateur dans la gestion de l’entreprise sont des facteurs significatifs qui influencent la moyenne de la VAC. fr

Thesis (M.S.)--University of Kentucky, 2008.
Title from document title page (viewed on November 3, 2008). Document formatted into pages; contains: ix, 58 p. : ill. (some col.). Includes abstract and vita. Includes bibliographical references (p. 55-57).

Dissertação de Mestrado Integrado em Medicina Veterinária
ABSTRACT - The continuous growth of the human population and dietary changes have led to an increased demand for food, with aquatic animal protein as one of the most desired. As such, we are confronted with the decline of wild populations of fish and the deterioration of aquatic environment, as consequences of overfishing and pollution. Taking this into account, aquaculture is considered as a solution, as it allows a sustainable increase in animal food production. Nowadays, aquaculture is the fastest-growing food production sector in the world. Mediterranean marine aquaculture aims to increase its production as well, with European seabass (Dicentrarchus labrax) and gilthead seabream (Sparus aurata) being the two main species produced in this region. With the growth in production, biosecurity measures are essential to minimize the risk of introduction and spread of pathogens within a farm. Therefore, one of the objectives of this study was to obtain an overview on farm and health management, biosecurity measures, fish health monitoring and disease diagnostics of Mediterranean marine fish farms. To do so, a survey focusing on health-related management of European seabass and gilthead seabream production in the Mediterranean was conducted on 88 farms from 8 countries. The data collected was initially analysed by the means of a descriptive analysis followed by the identification of risk factors associated with the occurrence of high mortality due to infectious pathogens. Secondly, this project aimed to create a systematic biosecurity scoring system to quantify farm biosecurity, on basis of farm management and biosecurity practices and to develop a risk profiling for Mediterranean European seabass and gilthead seabream farms. The scores presented are the average of the farms when grouped by production activity. The results from this scoring system show that there was a huge range of biosecurity scores from farms with the same production activity. According to this division hatcheries, located on land, had on average an overall biosecurity score of 73/100, pre-growing facilities, located on land, have, on average, an overall biosecurity score of 75/100, on-growing units, located on land, have on average an overall biosecurity score of 50/100 and lastly, on-growing facilities on open-sea have on average an overall biosecurity score of 59/100. The biosecurity level for farms with this last-mentioned type of production seem to be rather low and practices related to farm location and vaccination need to be addressed in order to lower the risk of pathogen introduction and spread through these farms. These results also indicate a lack of implementation of some important management and biosecurity measures, as well as room for improvement.
RESUMO - Biossegurança e o risco de introdução e disseminação de doenças em explorações de robalos e douradas no Mediterrâneo - O progressivo aumento da população humana e as mudanças dietéticas têm conduzido a um aumento da procura por alimentos, sendo a proteína animal aquática uma das mais procuradas. Como tal, deparamo-nos com a depleção de populações selvagens de peixes e com a deterioração dos ecossistemas marinhos, consequências da pesca excessiva e da poluição. Neste sentido, a aquacultura surge como solução, ao permitir um aumento sustentável de produção de alimento de origem animal. Atualmente, a aquacultura é o setor de produção de alimentos com maior crescimento mundial. A aquacultura marinha mediterrânica pretende também aumentar a sua produção, sendo o robalo (Dicentrarchus labrax) e a dourada (Sparus aurata) as duas principais espécies produzidas nesta região. Assim, as medidas de biossegurança tornam-se essenciais para minimizar o risco de introdução e disseminação de agentes patogénicos dentro de uma exploração. Um dos objetivos deste estudo foi obter uma visão geral acerca da gestão sanitária e da administração das explorações, quanto às suas práticas de biossegurança, monitorização da saúde dos animais e capacidade de diagnóstico em sistemas de produção de espécies marinhas no Mediterrâneo. A concretização deste objetivo implicou a realização de um questionário a 88 unidades piscícolas, distribuídas por 8 países do Mediterrâneo, focado na gestão sanitária, em produções de robalo e dourada. Os dados recolhidos foram inicialmente alvo de uma análise descritiva, seguida da identificação dos fatores de risco associados à ocorrência de elevada mortalidade por agentes infeciosos. Este projeto teve também como objetivo desenvolver uma ferramenta para a quantificação sistemática da biossegurança nas explorações, que permite desenvolver um perfil de risco para as aquaculturas de robalo e dourada no Mediterrâneo. Os resultados refletem a média das explorações, quando divididas por atividade de produção e evidenciam a existência de uma grande disparidade de prestações entre estas. Neste contexto, conclui-se que as maternidades em terra apresentam em média um valor de biossegurança total de 73/100, unidades piscícolas de pré-engorda em terra apresentam, em média, um valor de biossegurança total de 75/100, unidades de engorda em terra registam em média um nível de biossegurança total de 50/100 e por último, as unidades de engorda em alto mar registaram em média um valor de biossegurança total de 59/100. Nestas últimas unidades, sendo o nível de biossegurança relativamente baixo, configura-se a necessidade de implementar medidas relacionadas com a sua localização e com a vacinação, para a melhoria deste nível. Finalmente, perceciona-se que estes resultados traduzem a falta de implementação de medidas de gestão e de biossegurança, existindo, por isso, espaço para a introdução de melhorias nesta indústria.
N/A

Includes bibliographical references (leaves 68-80).
This research aimed to compare the respective contributions of Participatory Action Research (PAR) and household surveys to inform understanding of informal settlement risks and the impact/influence of PAR to effect change. Urban risks in Section D of Sweet Home Farm informal settlement in the City of Cape Town were examined through the lenses of community risk assessment (CRA) and household survey methodologies conducted sixteen months apart. The results described a risk profile for the study site, which was similar to that of many of Cape Town's informal settlements. However, there was more concern over chronic "everyday" threats, such as the disposal of solid waste and crime, rather than fire and flood, which are prioritised by the City. This stressed the need for risk assessments at the local level.

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O presente artigo busca uma mÃtrica refinada e confiÃvel para mensurar riscos financeiros. RiskMetrics (1994) marcou o inÃcio dessa busca e desde entÃo vÃrios pesquisadores contribuÃram com inovaÃÃes e novos modelos para essa medida e aqui se apresenta mais um passo desse caminho, ao se agregar uma modelagem multivariada. Com essa modelagem à possÃvel capturar o efeito contÃgio e a interdependÃncia financeira global. O grupo de 10 paÃses presente no estudo representa 49,9% do PIB mundial e possuem representantes de 5 continentes. O modelo de volatilidade segue sugestÃo apresentada por Cappielo, Engle e Sheppard (2006) e modelos de Value-at-Risk (VaR) seguem Matos, Cruz, Macedo e Jucà (CAEN-UFC Workingpaper). AtravÃs desse procedimento à possÃvel calcular VaR levando em consideraÃÃo o efeito contÃgio e a interdependÃncia entre os mercados ao longo do tempo. Os resultados encontrados sÃo robustos contra problemas de variÃveis omitidas, heterocedasticidade e endogeneidade, alÃm de considerar quebras estruturais. De acordo com os resultados encontrados, a interdependÃncia apresenta um papel importante dentro do processo de mensuraÃÃo de risco de mercado, apesar de atà agora ter sido esquecida pelos pesquisadores. Isso se deve, principalmente, porque a integraÃÃo financeira a nÃvel global leva ao cenÃrio de dependÃncia crescente entre os mercados financeiros e, dessa forma, aumentando o contÃgio de um impacto que ocorre em um mercado nos outros. Convidamos outros pesquisadores a rever nossa metodologia, utilizando inclusive mais informaÃÃes e incluindo outros paÃses. Acredita-se que o mundo està ano a ano se tornando mais globalizado e suas economias por consequÃncia. Nesse artigo esse efeito està sendo considerado dentro da mensuraÃÃo do risco de mercado. Incorporar esse efeito leva a modelagem, legal e interna, mais acurada, que ajuda supervisores de mercado a garantirem estabilidade de longo prazo para os mercados e possuÃrem mÃtricas mais confiÃveis dentro das instituiÃÃes sob sua tutela. AlÃm disso, à de grande valia para Ãreas de GestÃo de Risco de bancos e instituiÃÃes financeiras ao ajuda-las a compreender melhor seu perfil de risco, melhorar a comunicaÃÃo com investidores institucionais internacionais e ranquear de maneira mais eficiente seus investimentos e aplicaÃÃes. Estudos anteriores possuem um aspecto comum: Apenas levam em consideraÃÃo mudanÃas de volatilidade nos mercados domÃsticos, nÃo levando em consideraÃÃo os efeitos que outros paÃses possuem neles. No presente estudo, esse efeito se provou como importante e representativo, os modelos univariados domÃsticos falharam mais e com mais severidade que os modelos multivariados. Portanto, no presente artigo, buscou-se o desafio de dar o passo de nÃo mais modelar modelos univariados domÃsticos, mas modelos 4 multivariados globais. Acredita-se que esse avanÃo metodolÃgico ajudarà a melhor mensurar e entender o comportamento do risco de mercado atravÃs do mundo.
This paper enter into the search of a refined and trustable metric for measuring financial risk. RiskMetrics (1994) marked the start of this search and since them many researches contributed with innovations and new models for that measure, and here we find a stepforward into the search, by aggregating multivariate models, with this itâs possible to capture the effect of a worldwide contagion and financial interdependence. The group of 10 countries presents in this study represents 49,9% of world GDP and has representation across 5 continents. We follow the model of volatilities suggested in Cappielo, Engle e Sheppard (2006) and Value-at-Risk follows Matos, Cruz, Macedo e Jucà (CAEN-UFC Working paper), though this procedure itâs possible to accurate VaR model, and take in count the contagion and interdependence between markets, in long term. Our results are robust to problems with omitted variable, heteroskedasticity and endogeneity. We also take into account for structural break. According to our results, the interdependence plays an important role into financial risk measure process, although its until now usually forbidden by modelers, mostly because worldâs financial integration leads the global economies to the scenario of increasing dependence among them and contagion effect that spreads the impacts that occur into one market to the others. We invite researchers to revisit this issue in order obtain evidences using larger data and other countries as well. We claim that the world is year by year more globalized, and so are the other economies, here we add this into account for measuring financial risks. This leads to model, legal and internal, more accurate that help supervisors to guarantee the long term stability across the markets, have trustable measure of the financial institutions under their responsibility. Besides, helps the Risk Management area of banks and other financial institutions to better understand their risk profile, improve communication with institutional investors worldwide and rank effiently their investments and applications into the markets. Previous studies have a common aspect: they only consider the volatilities change across the domestic market, not tanking in consider the effect of the other countries into the domestic volatility, and this effect here is proven to be important and representative, the univariate domestic risk measure fails more and harder than the multivariate model. That being said, here we take this step, the challenge of modeling no more univariate, domestic risk measures, but a worldwide multivariate. This is a methodological innovation that helps better measure and understands the financial risks behavior across the world.