Letteratura scientifica selezionata sul tema "Earnings persistence"

ABSTRACTEarnings persistence and earnings transparency are an important factors in company performance. The quality of financial statement will differentiate performance between one company to another. The research purposed to analyze the effect of earnings persistence and earnings transparency on the company performance. In addition, the research purposed to analyze corporate governance as a moderating variable can strengthens the effect between earnings persistence and earnings transparency on company performance. This research using sample of 363 firms-year in 2014-2016 and applying panel data analysis. The results show that earnings persistence variable has a positive significant effect on the company performance. Earning transparency also has a positive significant effect on company performance. For corporate governance as a moderation variable strengthens the effect between earnings persistence and earning transparency to the company performance. Size and age also have a positive significant effect on company performance. Keywords: earnings persistence; earnings transparency; company performance; corporate governance.

Abstract- Prior research find evidence consistent with the hypothesis that future earnings influenced by difference between accounting and fiscal earnings (book tax differences). Many investors forming expectations of future earnings information derived from the difference between fiscal and commercial earnings, there were some investors would satisfied to see small differences between fiscal and commercial earnings, otherwise have the opposite view. This study aim to investigate how book-tax difference and family ownership play a role in the persistence of earnings. The authors using a sample 692 firm years of Indonesian listed companies within 2011-2016, they estimate cross-sectional regressions of the proxy for book-tax differences and family ownership on earning persistence. The study found that current pre-tax earnings can predict future earnings and also firm years with large book-tax difference have less earnings persistence than firm years with small book tax difference. Further, this study found no evidence that family ownership have significant role in persistence of earnings. Keywords: Earning Persistence, Future earnings, Pre-tax earnings, Book tax difference, Family Ownership.

Earnings Persistence is earning can reflect the earnimg priod next. In fact there are still companies that do not guarantee a persistent of earning. This study wished to examine ehe effect of operating cash flows, operating cycle, firm size, and the lever of debt both individually and simultaneously to earning persistence in service compnies of construction and building sector listed on Indonesia Stock Exchange period 2013-2016. The sampling technique using purposive sampling so than 9 sample companies were obtained. Data were analized using panel data with multiple regression then tested with the help of STATA 11 softwere.The result of this study are: operating cash flow, operating cycle, firm size there is not significant effect on earning persistence. While the level of debt has significant effect on earning persistence in service compnies of construction and building sector listed on Indonesia Stock Exchange period 2013-2016

This study aims to investigate the effect of leverage, firm size, earnings growth, and earning persistence on earnings response coefficient. The population used in this study are all manufacturing companies listed in Indonesia Stock Exchange from 2015 until 2019 and had positive earnings before tax. Consequently, the samples in this research are 68 manufacturing companies so that the observations are 340. For examining data, this research uses a panel data regression model. After running the chow test and Lagrange multiplier test, the most suitable method for the regression model is the common effect model. This research shows that leverage and firm size do not influence earning response coefficient. Meanwhile, earnings growth and earnings persistence have a positive effect on the earnings response coefficient. Keywords: Earning growth; earning persistence; earning response coefficient; firm size; leverage

The paper examinse whether Indonesian corporations manage their earnings through real activities and accrual accounting during their initial public offerings. We also investigate the effect of this IPO earnings management on earnings persistence in the subsequent period. Seventy-three non-financial IPOs during 2014-2017 were taken as research sample. Afer a series of statistical analyses, we find that companies that went public committed both real and accrual earnings management to inflate income figures in their IPO year. Furthermore, we also find that accrual earnings management negatively affects earning persistence, whereas real earnings management positively affects earnings persistence. Keywords: IPO; Earnings Management; Earnings Persistence, Go Public.

“Earning persistence is a component of earning quality. This study aims to determine whether the cash flow volatility, sales volatility, debt levels and company size affect the persistence of earnings. Sampling method is purposive sampling. The population in this study consisted of 24 coal mining companies listed in the Indonesia Stock Exchange and the observation period starts from 2014-2018. The number of samples that meet the sample criteria is 10 coal companies with 50 observational data. Data analysis method used is multiple linear regression. Based on the results af analysis and testing, it is found that cash flow volatility has a significant effect on earnings persistence. While sales volatility has a negative and significant effect on earnings persistence, the level of debt has a positive and significant effect on earnings persistence, and firm size has on effect on earnings persistence.

This study aims to examine the effect of earnings management on tax planning and earnings persistence using firm size as a control variable. The analytical method used is panel data regression using secondary data from the Indonesia Stock Exchange. The sample consists of 40 manufacturing firms in period of 2006-2010. The test results found that both real earnings management and accrual earnings management increase earnings persistence, while tax planning does not affect earnings persistence. Firms do real earnings management through the manipulation of sales and reduction of discretionary expenses to influence earnings persistence, while overproduction does not affect earnings persistence. In addition, the firms do not perform earnings management in tax planning. The firms that perform earnings management would have more persistent earnings than firms that do not perform earnings management. The larger the firm size, the more persistent the earnings. This study supports the agency theory which explains that earnings management is done by signaling motivation.

This study aims to determine the effect of capital structure, firm size, earnings persistence, and growth opportunities on the earnings response coefficient with profitability as a moderating variable in mining companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange for the 2018-2020 period. The population used in this study was 52 mining companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. The sampling method is to use purposive sampling. Based on the criteria that have been made, the number of samples is 37 companies, so a total of 111 research observations are obtained. Data processing was carried out using the EViews statistical program. The results of this study indicate that: (1) capital structure has a negative and significant effect on the earnings response coefficient, (2) firm size has a positive and significant effect on the earnings response coefficient, (3) earnings persistence has a positive and significant effect on the earnings response coefficient, (4 ) growth opportunities have a positive and significant effect on the earning response coefficient, (5) profitability can moderate the effect of capital structure, firm size, and growth opportunities on the earning response coefficient, (6) profitability is not able to moderate the effect of earnings persistence on the earning response coefficient. Keywords: Capital Structure, Firm Size, Profit Persistence, Growth Opportunities, Profitability, Earning Response Coefficient.

The study aims to test the direct and indirect effects of earnings management on earnings persistence through different tax books. Opportunistic earnings management results can reduce persistence of accruals. A decrease in accrual persistence will reduce earnings persistence. Different book tax variable was added as an alternative explanation. Earnings management can increase the book tax different reported by the company. A high tax different book can also reduce earnings persistence. A high tax different book is a signal of poor earnings quality. The population of this study is companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. The sample of this research is manufacturing companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange in 2012-2018. Data analysis methods used in this study were descriptive statistics and path analysis. The path analysis results prove that there is an indirect effect of earnings management on earnings persistence through different tax books. The results of the study prove that there is no direct influence of earnings management on earnings persistence.Keywords: Book Tax Different; Earnings Management; Earnings Persistency.

This study resolves divergent prior findings relating book-tax differences to future earnings, determines whether prior literature has missed relationships between different types of book-tax differences and pre-tax and/or after-tax income, and investigates prior earnings as a factor contributing to the observed relationships. As past research has found that some firms have large book-tax differences over several years, this study separates these firms with large stable book-tax differences from others with large book-tax differences (non-stable) when investigating the link between large book-tax differences and future earnings. Finally, this study investigates whether the relationship between book-tax differences and future earnings reflects information about prior earnings and finds that prior earnings growth explains much of the lower persistence found for firms with large book-tax differences.

For many years, academics have argued that firms with high book-to-market ratios yield higher returns than firms with low book-to-market ratios (i.e. the value premium). While there is agreement that a book- to-market based value strategy produces superior returns, academics have neglected to research whether the value premium is a function of other rm characteristics. In this dissertation it is shown that the book-to- market ratio is a function of earnings persistence. Evidence is provided that the value premium in low earnings persistence portfolios is higher because investors misjudge earnings persistence and not because this value strategy is fundamentally riskier.

This research aims to investigate the enhancement of accounting quality in Thailand after adopting International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) in its domestic accounting system. The accounting quality consists of three properties of earnings– earnings persistence, value relevance and earnings timeliness. This research examines the improvement of accounting quality after the IFRS adoption in Thailand by expanding the conditioning institutional factor to include the magnitude of book-tax differences. In addition, the relationship between the Thai accounting quality and firm governance systems is investigated. The results reveal that the accounting quality, including earnings persistence and value relevance, has been improved after the IFRS adoption in Thailand. The earnings timeliness is observed in Thai firms, but it has been declined after the IFRS adoption. The results also indicate that the improvement of accounting quality after the IFRS adoption in Thailand is varied according to the magnitude of book-tax differences. This research finds that the firm governance system is related to the improvement of accounting quality in Thai settings. This research concludes that the adoption of IFRS has generally improved accounting quality in Thailand. The book-tax difference contains significant information about accounting quality in Thai settings. And, the firm governance system plays an important role in accounting quality after the IFRS adoption in Thailand.

This thesis examines the impact of competition and earnings management on bank earnings persistence by exploiting natural experiments (IBBEA and SOX). Chapter three examines how competition affects bank earnings persistence by exploiting a natural experiment following interstate banking deregulation that increased bank competition. We find that bank earnings adjustment speed (which equals one minus earnings persistence in partial adjustment model) increases after their states implement this deregulation. We find the impact from the competition on earnings persistence is solid and consistent using Lerner index as bank-level competition measure and a battery of placebo tests. Despite the negative impact of competition on profit persistence, we didn’t find any peculiar situation that alleviates or strengthen this tie(regarding profitability, Gaps). Chapter four examines the impact of earnings management on earnings persistence in US banking industry. Results show earnings management have a positive influence. In addition, statistics illustrate managers are more willing to keep a high persistence of profit when they are outperformed than the expected to return. However, when it comes to the different timing of outside market, the effect of earnings management on profit persistence might vary significantly. This connection is robust by using SOX as an exogenous shock on financial reporting quality of the largest banks. Chapter five analyze the economic significance between earnings management and competition on earnings persistence. We use a battery of tests to determine the most important factor to earnings persistence. We also introduce investment sentiment as an exogenous variation of market vitality to see how bank profit persistence changes. We find both competition and earnings management have a significant impact on profit persistence. We also discover that competition would increase earnings management. Then, if higher competition reduces earning persistence and increase earnings management. While we also observe that higher earnings management would increase earnings persistence. Therefore, we conclude that the effect of the competition on earnings persistence is not from earnings management. Furthermore, we find that competition impacts on earnings persistence is strong enough to overcome the marginal effect that boosted from earnings management due to high competition. We additionally found that earnings management is sensitive to investment sentiment.

This study aims to examine the relationship between Book-Tax Differences and earnings quality i.e. earnings persistence in order to assess the usefulness of accounting earnings for decision making. Managers may have incentives to increase accounting or “book” earnings while simultaneously reducing taxable income, any difference in the two measures is termed the book-tax difference (BTD). As the measurement of accounting earnings and taxable income is based on two different sets of rules differences can arise because of permissible discretion in the measurement of accounting income representing genuine economic differences. However, differences could also represent earnings management or manipulation, e.g. an increase in accounting income without a corresponding increase in real assets. Consequently this has raised calls to conform accounting earnings and taxable income in an attempt to limit the misuse of the discretion and the deviation permitted between the two measures. Nevertheless, conformity is argued to cause a loss of accounting earnings informativeness which makes them less useful for decision making. Using an earnings persistence model this study aims to address: (1) Does the contribution of the BTD in the model differ from that of underlying earnings and if so, does the nature of the contribution depend on a short term or longer-term measure of the BTDs. (2) Further, when BTDs are disaggregated into their “temporary” and “permanent” sources does the nature of the contribution change. If BTDs behave differently from underlying earnings, this will support the retention of differing measures of accounting earnings and taxable income and more directly retaining discretion in measurement of accounting earnings.

The quality of earnings is a summary metric in firm performance evaluation and a focal question to assess the quality of accounting information. A high-quality earnings figure will reflect a firm's current operating performance, being a good indicator of future operating performance; it also accurately annuitizes the intrinsic value of the firm. The multidimensional nature of the earnings quality (EQ) concept has given form to a multiplicity of constructs and measures. This chapter offers a systematic literature review on EQ and its implication on firm value. On the one hand, it discusses the different existent definitions of EQ and the multidimensional nature of the concept; on the other hand, it highlights a “new” EQ perspective taking into account the virtuosities of the residual income model. An empirical model is proposed that reinterprets rebuilding the linear information dynamics in relation to market value added and captures, in a composite measure, the three-dimensional facet of the EQ concept: persistence, predictability, and informativeness of earnings.

The World Health Organization (WHO) has designated the new coronavirus infection as a global pandemic, based on the risk of contagion, and the number of confirmed cases in more than 195 countries. COVID-19 has an intense impact on the global economy, resulting from uncertainty and pessimism, with adverse effects on financial markets. Due to these events, this essay aims to estimate if the portfolio’s diversification is feasible in the financial markets of Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand (ASEAN-5), in the context of the global pandemic (Covid-19), regarding the period of July 1, 2019, to July 22, 2020. To achieve such an analysis, is intended to provide answers for two questions, namely: i) the global pandemic (Covid-19) has accentuated financial integration between the ASEAN-5 markets? ii) If so, can the persistence of returns affect the risk diversification of portfolios? The results obtained suggest that those regional markets present accentuated levels of integration. However, the Singapore's stock market index does not show any level of integration, indicating that the implementation of portfolio’s diversification strategies can be considered; however, the same can no longer be evident for the other ASEAN-5 markets. Additionally, we verified that the ASEAN-5 markets indicate persistence in returns, that is, the presence of accentuated long memories, except for the Singapore market (SGX). These findings show that prices do not fully reflect the information available and that changes in prices are not independent and identically distributed. This situation is found for investors, since some returns can be expected, creating opportunities for arbitrage and abnormal earnings. Corroborating the trendless cross-correlation coefficients (𝜆𝐷𝐶𝐶𝐴), proven evidence coefficients, mostly, suggest the existence of risk transmission between markets. In conclusion, the authors seek that the implementation of an efficient diversification strategy for portfolios requires agreement with the controversial application. These conclusions also open space for the regulators of these regional markets to take measures to ensure better information between these markets and international markets.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.