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1
Müller-Trede, Johannes. "Advisors and groups: essays in social decision making". Doctoral thesis, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/10803/81075.
Testo completoAbstract (sommario):
The three chapters of this thesis investigate social aspects of judgment and decision making. Chapter One analyses the consequences of making decisions based on predictions of future well-being, and the conditions under which advice can improve these decisions. It shows that an interaction between errors in affective forecasts and the choice process leads to suboptimal decisions and disappointment, and establishes conditions under which advice reduces these effects. The second chapter investigates the boundaries of the result that eliciting more than one estimate from the same person and averaging these can lead to accuracy gains in judgment tasks. It reveals that the technique works only for specific kinds of questions, and people are reluctant to average their initial answers when asked for a final estimate. Finally, Chapter Three reviews experimental results regarding individual and small group behaviour in strategic decision tasks and provides a theoretical framework to analyse the observed differences.Aquesta tesi investiga diferents aspectes socials de la presa de decisions. El primer capítol analitza les decisions preses en base a les prediccions del benestar futur, i en quines situacions els consells d’altres persones poden millorar aquestes decisions. Es mostra que una interacció entre el procés de l’elecció i les imperfeccions de les prediccions condueix a decisions subòptimes i a la decepció, i s’estableixen les condicions sota les quals els consells redueixen aquests efectes. El segon capítol investigaels casos en què les persones poden millorar les seves prediccions numèriques donant més d’una estimació i prenent-ne la mitjana. A base d’un experiment, es mostra que la tècnica funciona només amb determinats tipus de preguntes, i que les persones són averses a prendre mitjanes de les seves estimacions inicials quan es pregunta per una estimació final. L’últim capítol revisa els resultats experimentals referents a la presa de decisions estratègiques de la persona individual comparats amb els de la persona que forma part d’un grup reduït i proporciona un marc teòric en el que analitza les diferències que s’observen en el seu comportament
2
Tatlılıoğlu, Kasım. "DECISIONS AND DECISION MAKING STRATEGIES IN ADOLESCENTS". Thesis, Національний авіаційний університет, 2017. https://er.nau.edu.ua/handle/NAU/48998.
Testo completo
3
Tatlılıoğlu, Kasım. "DECISIONS AND DECISION MAKING STRATEGIES IN ADOLESCENTS". Thesis, Національний авіаційний університет, 2017. http://er.nau.edu.ua/handle/NAU/30617.
Testo completo
4
Macintyre, Stuart Dunlop, e n/a. "Burglar decision Making". Griffith University. School of Criminology and Criminal Justice, 2001. http://www4.gu.edu.au:8080/adt-root/public/adt-QGU20050916.165104.
Testo completoAbstract (sommario):
This thesis examines how burglars select a target and carry out a crime. The four research questions addressed by the two studies conducted for this thesis are: 1. What are the processes used by burglars to select a target, break in, steal, and distribute the proceeds? 2. What are the crucial decision making cues used to select a target? 3. What is the impact of various cues, cue alternatives, cue order and combinations selected on target attractiveness in a controlled situation? 4. Does age or experience interact with the effect of any cues? The results furnish discussion and increase the understanding and prevention of break and enter (B&E). The research for this thesis was conducted in two studies. For Study One interviews were conducted with fifty persons who attend a methadone clinic. Participants were past heroin users who financed their drug use through the commission of break and enter. Semi-structured interviews were conducted that covered their drug use and criminal involvement. From these interviews a list of seventeen cues was developed - cue 1 (dog), cue 2 (lighting), cue 3 (alarm), cue 4 (occupancy - lights/tv/radio), cue 5 (occupancy - car in driveway), cue 6 (affluence), cue 7 (doors/windows), cue 8 (locks), cue 9 (garage), cue 10 (fence), cue 11 (garden), cue 12 (location), cue 13 (people in the street), cue 14 (neighbourhood watch), cue 15 (weather), cue 16 (inside information) and cue 17 (street type). Participants used these seventeen cues to determine the vulnerability of a target. For Study Two a computer program was developed, in which these seventeen cues were arranged in various combinations, across twenty case studies. The computer program allowed subjects to access as much information about a case study as they needed to make a decision about its attractiveness as a burglary target. A new sample of ninety-six burglars were asked to view the twenty case studies and give each target a rating from '0' (not a B&E opportunity) to '100' (a definite B&E opportunity). Over the twenty case studies, the subjects only accessed one third of the available information to make a decision. The lower the final rating for a ease study the fewer cues were selected. Subjects were quickly deterred if the first one or two selections revealed deterrent alternatives. In contrast, if the initial selections revealed attractive alternatives the subjects were hard to deter even if subsequent cue selections revealed only deterrent alternatives. Four cues - cue 1 (dog), cue 3 (alann), cue 13 (people in the street) and cue 16 (inside information) - accounted for 91.77% of all first selections. Six cues - cue 1 (dog), 3 (alarm), cue 4 (occupancy - lights/tv/radio), cue 5 (occupancy - car in driveway), cue 13 (people in the street) and cue 16 (inside information) - accounted for 67.8% of all selections made. Clearly these six cues are very important to offenders and they should be closely examined in any prevention initiative. Results revealed that on 282 Occasions subjects viewed only one cue then made their decision based on this one piece of information. The most common single cue was reliable inside information that there was a large amount of cash inside the house or when a good alarm was present. Decision trees were developed which graphically trace the selections of subjects and the ratings given after each selection. The trees showed that subjects reached different conclusions from the same case study because they could select different cues. The selection of different cues from the same case study led to great variation in subsequent cue selections. The decision trees confirmed the earlier finding that subjects are much harder to deter when the first one or two selections had attractive alternatives even if subsequent selections had deterrent alternatives. Results of linear regressions revealed that every cue was significant as predictor of final rating at least twice, however three cues - cue 3 (alarm), cue 12 (location) and cue 16 (inside information) - were significant as predictors ten or more times. The 96 subjects were divided into four groups on the basis of age (young and old) and experience (experienced and inexperienced). The young and inexperienced group used an average of 188.3 cues across the twenty case studies, whereas the older and experienced group used an average of 43.8 cues. Older and experienced subjects were harder to deter, compared to younger and inexperienced subjects. As experience increased fewer cues were needed to reach a decision. The results showed that the variation in final rating for each case study was explained by a few cues. For example, in case study 16 the Adjusted R Square with all seventeen factors entered was .945. With only six cues as predictors the Adjusted R Square reduced slightly to .939. This shows that although cues are mentioned in the literature and were selected by subjects in this study they were often ineffectual and did not assist in explaining the final rating. The two most effective prevention measures were the deterrent alternatives for cue 3 (alarm) and cue 4 (occupancy -lights/tv/radio). The two most influential attractive alternatives were for cue 12 (location; house is located on a corner block) and cue 16 (inside information; from a reliable source you are told there could be a large amount of cash kept in the house). Overall, the linear models with interactions showed that the inexperienced subjects' decision making was more volatile and fluctuated to a greater extent than the experienced subjects' decision making. When continually attractive infonnation was received the inexperienced subjects' ratings climbed higher than did the experienced subjects. When deterrent information was received the negative effect on the inexperienced subjects' ratings was greater than the effect on experienced subjects. Experience increases burglars' skills and abilities but it also improves their capacity to weigh up information in a more reasoned manner. The results revealed that experienced subjects have probably developed a level of skill to the extent that the deterrent alternatives for many cues have become ineffectual. The experienced subjects have developed strategies to overcome many deterrents. The decision making of the experienced subjects was clearly more sophisticated and considered. The main theoretical finding of this thesis is that research will only produce incomplete findings if it concentrates on place and situation to the neglect of the offender and the antecedents and attributes they bring to a crime. The influence of age and experience on decision making is of such consequence that it must be considered to maximise the prevention of crime. Age and experience have individual and combined influences on cue selection and interpretation.
5
Leutenmayr, Stephan. "Liquid decision making". Diss., Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München, 2015. http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bvb:19-181737.
Testo completoAbstract (sommario):
In today’s business world, decisions have to be made on different levels, including strategic, tactical, and operational levels. Decisions on the strategic level are characterized by their complexity, longevity and impact. Such decisions can benefit from the participation of a large, diverse group of people as they contribute different background knowledge, perspectives, and evaluation criteria. Typically, such decisions need to be considered over a prolonged period of time as opinions may need to be formed or may change due to the availability of new information. The goal of people in group decision making situations is typically to achieve good decisions. A mechanism is thus desirable that is capable of addressing the aforementioned challenges and of producing a good decision. For this work, a decision is thought to be good if it is predominantly based on the sincere opinions of the participants.
In this thesis, we investigate the market metaphor as a promising approach for group decision making. Markets are attributed with the capability of gathering and aggregating assessments from people in a single indicator, the price. They allow for a continued participation over a prolonged time, reversibility of one’s market position by repeated trading, and the usage of individual evaluation criteria. For investigating the application of the market metaphor to decision making, we develop LDM, a market-based approach for group decision making. There, we represent a pending decision as a market and the decision options as stocks. Participants then buy shares of their favored stocks and sell shares of the stocks they dislike. High demand leads to price increase whereas low prices are the result of low demand. The most favored decision options can be identified from the ranking of the stocks according to their prices. To support the achievement of a good decision, we model the market behavior of participants, devise design principles, identify suitable application scenarios, and determine appropriate functionalities for a market software. We furthermore devise the concept of market perturbations for uncovering the trading intentions of participants.
We furthermore implement a web-based software prototype of LDM. It provides functionalities for decision making, market trading, user handling, information exchange, and market perturbations. Participants there trade their favored stocks using virtual play money. We test the LDM approach and its software prototype in an EU-funded project, in a lab study, in the selection of research proposals, and in a university seminar for scenario building.Entscheidungen müssen in Unternehmen auf unterschiedlichen Ebenen getroffen werden. Besonders strategische Entscheidungen sind oft komplex, langwierig und haben weitreichende Auswirkungen. Die Beteiligung einer großen, heterogenen Personengruppe kann solche Entscheidungen begünstigen, da sie unterschiedliches Hintergrundwissen sowie verschiedene Perspektiven und Bewertungskriterien beisteuern. Oft werden solche Entscheidungen über einen längeren Zeitraum getroffen, da die Beteiligten sich ihre Meinungen erst bilden müssen, oder diese sich durch neue Informationen ändern. Um dabei gute Entscheidungen zu treffen, sollte ein Ansatz dazu unter den geschilderten Umständen ein gutes Ergebnis liefern können. Als gutes Ergebnis wird in dieser Arbeit eine Entscheidung angesehen, die hauptsächlich auf der ehrlichen Meinung der Teilnehmer beruht. In dieser Arbeit untersuchen wir die Marktmetapher als vielversprechenden Ansatz für die Entscheidungsfindung. Märkten wird die Fähigkeit zugeschrieben, Informationen von verschiedenen Personen in einem einzigen Indikator, dem Preis, aggregieren zu können. Sie ermöglichen dabei eine kontinuierliche Teilnahme über einen längeren Zeitraum, eine Änderung der Meinung durch wiederholtes Handeln sowie die Anwendung von individuellen Bewertungskriterien. Für unsere Untersuchung entwickeln wir LDM, einen marktbasierten Ansatz für die Entscheidungsfindung in Gruppen. Eine anstehende Entscheidung wird darin als Markt repräsentiert und die Entscheidungsoptionen als Aktien. Die Teilnehmer kaufen Anteile ihrer favorisierten Aktien und verkaufen die Anderen mittels virtuellem Spielgeld. Eine hohe Nachfrage führt zu hohen Preisen, niedrige Nachfrage zu niedrigen Preisen. Aus der Rangfolge der Aktien nach ihren Preisen kann dann die bevorzugteste Entscheidungsoption identifiziert werden. Um eine gute Entscheidung mittels \acl{LDM} zu erreichen, erstellen wir ein Verhaltensmodell der Teilnehmer, Entwurfsprinzipien, geeignete Einsatzszenarien und geeignete Funktionalitäten für eine Software. Außerdem entwickeln wir das Konzept der Marktstörungen um Handelsintentionen der Teilnehmer in Erfahrung zu bringen. Diese Aspekte setzen wir in einer webbasierten Software um, die Funktionalitäten zur Entscheidungsfindung, zum Handeln, zur Nutzerverwaltung, zum Informationsaustausch und für Marktstörungen enthält. LDM sowie die Sofware testen wir erfolgreich in einem EU-Projekt, in einer Laborstudie, bei der Auswahl von Forschungsvorhaben und in einem Universitätsseminar zu Szenarioentwicklung.
6
Vohra, Shalini. "Investor decision making". Thesis, University of Manchester, 2010. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.521574.
Testo completoAbstract (sommario):
The role of irrational or emotional factors in investor decision making has been well recognised (Thaler, 1999; Kahneman & Tversky, 1979; Shefrin & Statman, 1985). However, existing research fails to adequately take into account the role of corporate reputation. This thesis attempts to overcome this limitation and follows a two stage research design for the same. In the first and qualitative stage, the decision-making of groups of investors was observed by attending the monthly meetings of investment clubs as an observer. The reputation of the company was found to be the most prominent factor influencing decisions on the buying, selling and holding of shares. Prior work on such decisions has often examined investor regret (Shefrin & Statman, 1985; Kahneman & Tversky, 1979; Thaler, 1985). Consequently the second and quantitative stage of this work explores the relevance of corporate reputation to predicting investor regret, an issue that has not been tested previously. Factors identified as important for investor decision making were identified from prior work and the qualitative phase and used to construct a questionnaire administered to a convenience sample of individual investors. A model for predicting investor regret was developed using hierarchical multiple regression. Control measures included were investor's age and gender, risk taking and share price performance. Reputation was measured using a multidimensional brand personality scale. Measures of human personality were also included. Three dimensions of corporate reputation/brand personality agreeableness, enterprise and competence, were found to be significant in the prediction of investor regret. Of these Agreeableness (honest, trustworthy, supportive) had the strongest influence. Thus the significance of corporate reputation for investor decision making as suggested by the qualitative results was supported by the quantitative findings. Partial support was found for the relevance of human personality in predicting investor regret.
7
Ходцева, Алла Олександрівна, Алла Александровна Ходцева e Alla Oleksandrivna Khodtseva. "Ethical Decision Making". Thesis, TESOL Ukraine, 2000. http://essuir.sumdu.edu.ua/handle/123456789/63589.
Testo completo
8
Macintyre, Stuart Dunlop. "Burglar decision Making". Thesis, Griffith University, 2001. http://hdl.handle.net/10072/365896.
Testo completoAbstract (sommario):
This thesis examines how burglars select a target and carry out a crime. The four research questions addressed by the two studies conducted for this thesis are: 1. What are the processes used by burglars to select a target, break in, steal, and distribute the proceeds? 2. What are the crucial decision making cues used to select a target? 3. What is the impact of various cues, cue alternatives, cue order and combinations selected on target attractiveness in a controlled situation? 4. Does age or experience interact with the effect of any cues? The results furnish discussion and increase the understanding and prevention of break and enter (B&E). The research for this thesis was conducted in two studies. For Study One interviews were conducted with fifty persons who attend a methadone clinic. Participants were past heroin users who financed their drug use through the commission of break and enter. Semi-structured interviews were conducted that covered their drug use and criminal involvement. From these interviews a list of seventeen cues was developed - cue 1 (dog), cue 2 (lighting), cue 3 (alarm), cue 4 (occupancy - lights/tv/radio), cue 5 (occupancy - car in driveway), cue 6 (affluence), cue 7 (doors/windows), cue 8 (locks), cue 9 (garage), cue 10 (fence), cue 11 (garden), cue 12 (location), cue 13 (people in the street), cue 14 (neighbourhood watch), cue 15 (weather), cue 16 (inside information) and cue 17 (street type). Participants used these seventeen cues to determine the vulnerability of a target. For Study Two a computer program was developed, in which these seventeen cues were arranged in various combinations, across twenty case studies. The computer program allowed subjects to access as much information about a case study as they needed to make a decision about its attractiveness as a burglary target. A new sample of ninety-six burglars were asked to view the twenty case studies and give each target a rating from '0' (not a B&E opportunity) to '100' (a definite B&E opportunity). Over the twenty case studies, the subjects only accessed one third of the available information to make a decision. The lower the final rating for a ease study the fewer cues were selected. Subjects were quickly deterred if the first one or two selections revealed deterrent alternatives. In contrast, if the initial selections revealed attractive alternatives the subjects were hard to deter even if subsequent cue selections revealed only deterrent alternatives. Four cues - cue 1 (dog), cue 3 (alann), cue 13 (people in the street) and cue 16 (inside information) - accounted for 91.77% of all first selections. Six cues - cue 1 (dog), 3 (alarm), cue 4 (occupancy - lights/tv/radio), cue 5 (occupancy - car in driveway), cue 13 (people in the street) and cue 16 (inside information) - accounted for 67.8% of all selections made. Clearly these six cues are very important to offenders and they should be closely examined in any prevention initiative. Results revealed that on 282 Occasions subjects viewed only one cue then made their decision based on this one piece of information. The most common single cue was reliable inside information that there was a large amount of cash inside the house or when a good alarm was present. Decision trees were developed which graphically trace the selections of subjects and the ratings given after each selection. The trees showed that subjects reached different conclusions from the same case study because they could select different cues. The selection of different cues from the same case study led to great variation in subsequent cue selections. The decision trees confirmed the earlier finding that subjects are much harder to deter when the first one or two selections had attractive alternatives even if subsequent selections had deterrent alternatives. Results of linear regressions revealed that every cue was significant as predictor of final rating at least twice, however three cues - cue 3 (alarm), cue 12 (location) and cue 16 (inside information) - were significant as predictors ten or more times. The 96 subjects were divided into four groups on the basis of age (young and old) and experience (experienced and inexperienced). The young and inexperienced group used an average of 188.3 cues across the twenty case studies, whereas the older and experienced group used an average of 43.8 cues. Older and experienced subjects were harder to deter, compared to younger and inexperienced subjects. As experience increased fewer cues were needed to reach a decision. The results showed that the variation in final rating for each case study was explained by a few cues. For example, in case study 16 the Adjusted R Square with all seventeen factors entered was .945. With only six cues as predictors the Adjusted R Square reduced slightly to .939. This shows that although cues are mentioned in the literature and were selected by subjects in this study they were often ineffectual and did not assist in explaining the final rating. The two most effective prevention measures were the deterrent alternatives for cue 3 (alarm) and cue 4 (occupancy -lights/tv/radio). The two most influential attractive alternatives were for cue 12 (location; house is located on a corner block) and cue 16 (inside information; from a reliable source you are told there could be a large amount of cash kept in the house). Overall, the linear models with interactions showed that the inexperienced subjects' decision making was more volatile and fluctuated to a greater extent than the experienced subjects' decision making. When continually attractive infonnation was received the inexperienced subjects' ratings climbed higher than did the experienced subjects. When deterrent information was received the negative effect on the inexperienced subjects' ratings was greater than the effect on experienced subjects. Experience increases burglars' skills and abilities but it also improves their capacity to weigh up information in a more reasoned manner. The results revealed that experienced subjects have probably developed a level of skill to the extent that the deterrent alternatives for many cues have become ineffectual. The experienced subjects have developed strategies to overcome many deterrents. The decision making of the experienced subjects was clearly more sophisticated and considered. The main theoretical finding of this thesis is that research will only produce incomplete findings if it concentrates on place and situation to the neglect of the offender and the antecedents and attributes they bring to a crime. The influence of age and experience on decision making is of such consequence that it must be considered to maximise the prevention of crime. Age and experience have individual and combined influences on cue selection and interpretation.Thesis (PhD Doctorate)
Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)
School of Criminology and Criminal Justice
Full Text
9
Cook, Edward. "Group Decision-Making". VCU Scholars Compass, 2019. https://scholarscompass.vcu.edu/etd/5928.
Testo completoAbstract (sommario):
The present work explores improvements in group decision-making. It begins with a practical example using state-of-the-art techniques for a complex, high-risk decision. We show how these techniques can reveal a better alternative. Although we created an improved decision process, decision-makers were apt to protect their own organizations instead of the project. This tendency was reduced over the course of the decision-making process but inspired the first conceptual component of this work.
The first concept describes the “Cost of Conflict” that can arise in a group decision, using game theory to represent the non-cooperative approach and comparing the outcome to the cooperative approach. We demonstrate that it is possible for the group to settle on a non-Paretto Nash equilibrium. The sensitivity of the decision-maker weights is revealed which led to the second conceptual portion of this work.
The second concept applies social network theory to study the influence between decision-makers in a group decision. By examining the number and strength of connections between decision-makers, we build from intrinsically derived weights to extrinsically derived weights by adding the network influences from other decision-makers. The two conceptual approaches provide a descriptive view of non-cooperative decisions where decision-makers still influence each other. These concepts suggest a prescriptive approach to achieving a higher group utility.
10
Menin, Mirko <1996>. "Management Decision Making". Master's Degree Thesis, Università Ca' Foscari Venezia, 2019. http://hdl.handle.net/10579/15549.
Testo completoAbstract (sommario):
Eviscerazione e analisi dell'intero processo di decision making: dalle principali problematiche, alla generazione di dati utili al processo, fino alla decisione effettiva e all'analisi e valutazione delle conseguenze.
11
Wood, Nicole L. "Individual Differences In Decision-Making Styles As Predictors Of Good Decision Making". Bowling Green State University / OhioLINK, 2012. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=bgsu1326823601.
Testo completo
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Sudhaakar, Swathi Priyadarshini. "Multiscale Decision Making for Multiple Decision Alternatives". Thesis, Virginia Tech, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/10919/19236.
Testo completoAbstract (sommario):
In organizations with decision makers across multiple hierarchical levels, conflicting objectives are commonly observed. The decision maker, or agent, at the highest level usually makes decisions in the interest of the organization, while a subordinate agent may have a conflict of interest between taking a course of action that is best for the organization and the course of action that is best for itself. The Multiscale Decision-Making (MSDM) model was established by Wernz (2008). The model has been developed to capture interactions in multi-agent systems, by integrating both the hierarchical and temporal scale of decisions made in organizations.
This thesis contributes towards expanding the results in the hierarchical interaction domain of MSDM by extending the model to incorporate N decision alternatives and outcomes instead of two, and studying its effect on the interaction between agents.
We consider decisions with uncertain outcomes, where the outcomes of the decisions made by agents lower in hierarchy affect the transition probabilities of the decisions made by agents above them in hierarchy. This leads to a game theoretic situation, where the lower-level agents need to be sufficiently incentivized in order to shift their best response strategy to one in the interest of their superior and the organization. Mathematical expressions for the optimal incentives at each hierarchical level are developed.
We analyze systems with agents interacting across two and three organizational levels. We then study the effect of introducing the cost of taking an action on the optimal incentives. We discuss a health care application of MSDM.
Master of Science
13
Johnson, Jeffrey Jay. "Supporting decision-making with organizational decision memory". Diss., The University of Arizona, 1993. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/186332.
Testo completoAbstract (sommario):
Although organizational memory remains a relatively ill-defined construct, information systems developers seem anxious to build software that is intended to facilitate its development and use. The construct seems to consist of concepts from organizational theory, information systems design, and decision support. Decision support is one of the commonly proposed uses of organizational memory, and a common justification for efforts to build information systems to support organizational memory. Yet, the broad range of information that might be stored in and recalled from an organization's memory makes it difficult to define requirements for an automated organizational memory system. This dissertation describes the design and implementation of a laboratory experiment aimed at discovering whether information about historic decision making behavior could be useful to decision makers in organizations. Several hypotheses were tested. The first is that information about decision-making behavior from the past will lead decision makers to make better decisions in the present. Second, the experiment tested the hypothesis that historic information from an organizational (collective) source would be more helpful to decision makers than similar information from an individual source. These hypotheses were supported. Third, it was hypothesized that historic decision information, presented in the format of a linear regression model would be more helpful to decision makers than similar information in a textual format. This hypothesis was not supported. Additionally, hypotheses were tested concerning the relative benefits of collective and individual sources of historic information versus no historic information, and comparing the benefits of the regression format and textual format versus no historic information. The findings indicated that the information from a collective source provided better decision support than no historic information, but information from the individual source was not significantly superior to no historic information. Further, the information in the textual format was significantly better than no information, but the regression format was not significantly better than no historic information. In general, the findings indicate that historic decision information can lead decision makers to make better decisions, but source of information and the presentation format are important variables affecting the extent of the benefit.
14
Lou, Wei Wei. "A Non-decision-reaching Decision-making process". PDXScholar, 1995. https://pdxscholar.library.pdx.edu/open_access_etds/1193.
Testo completoAbstract (sommario):
Decision-making processes are among the most important activities within human organizations. This dissertation is a case study of decision-making in the review of high school graduation standards in an urban school district. The review process lasted three years and was terminated before any decision was reached concerning graduation standards. The purpose of this study is to answer three questions: Why would a decision-making process be terminated before any results are achieved? Under what circumstances do decision makers choose to let the process die? What do such decision making processes reveal about the organization? This case study employs the rational choice model, the process model, and the organizational decision-making model. These three models are constructed within the theoretical frameworks of systems science, sociology, and political science, and also draw upon the literatures of education reform and organization theory. Define a NDR (non-decision-reaching) decision-making process as one which produces no outcome. The rational choice model suggests that the NDR outcome in this case was the best alternative under the circumstances. Two obstacles, insufficient resources and external uncertainties, were identified as important factors which led decision makers to choose the NDR outcome over other alternatives. The process model suggests that a decision outcome may not be necessary in many organizational decision-making processes, as the process itself is often significant and sufficient. The process accommodates, to some extent, the interests of the decision makers even without a definite outcome. The organizational decision-making model posits that organizational rules and procedures dictate decision-making processes, and that organizational interests will determine the nature and the outcome of such processes. In this model the NDR outcome is the result of organizational interests that no decision be reached. The conclusions of this case study indicate that a loose structural relationship among the decision makers was a major cause of the NDR outcome. In addition, the decision makers had never fully reconciled their differences regarding the nature of the decision problem. The changing environment of public education is also identified as a factor leading to the NDR outcome.
15
Platts, Danielle. "Patients' decision making processes for uncertain, risky medical decisions". Thesis, University of Sheffield, 2016. http://etheses.whiterose.ac.uk/17546/.
Testo completo
16
Möller, Niklas. "Safety and decision-making". Licentiate thesis, KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), 2006. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-3852.
Testo completoAbstract (sommario):
Safety is an important topic for a wide range of disciplines, such as engineering, economics, sociology, psychology, political science and philosophy, and plays a central role in risk analysis and risk management. The aim of this thesis is to develop a concept of safety that is relevant for decision-making, and to elucidate its consequences for risk and safety research and practices.
Essay I provides a conceptual analysis of safety in the context of societal decision-making, focusing on some fundamental distinctions and aspects, and argues for a more complex notion than what is commonly given. This concept of safety explicitly includes epistemic uncertainty, the degree to which we are uncertain of our knowledge of the situation at hand. It is discussed the extent to which such a concept may be considered an objective concept, and concluded that it is better seen as an intersubjective concept. Some formal versions of a comparative safety concept are also proposed.
Essay II explores some consequences of epistemic uncertainty. It is commonly claimed that the public is irrational in its acceptance of risks. An underlying presumption in such a claim is that the public should follow the experts’ advice in recommending an activity whenever the experts have better knowledge of the risk involved. This position is criticised based on considerations from epistemic uncertainty and the goal of safety. Furthermore, it is shown that the scope of the objection covers the entire field of risk research, risk assessment as well as risk management.
Essay III analyses the role of epistemic uncertainty for principles of achieving safety in an engineering context. The aim is to show that to account for common engineering principles we need the understanding of safety that has been argued for in Essays I-II. Several important principles in engineering safety are analysed, and it is argued that we cannot fully account for them on a narrow interpretation of safety as the reduction of risk (understanding risk as the combination of probability and severity of harm). An adequate concept of safety must include not only the reduction of risk but also the reduction of uncertainty.
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Hano, Katarzyna. "Jury Decision-Making Study". Thesis, University of Waterloo, 2006. http://hdl.handle.net/10012/1242.
Testo completoAbstract (sommario):
In this thesis I combine the social network analysis approach with the traditional experimental approach to study the phenomena of jury decision-making. I examine whether with each trial a social network is formed. The jurors, the two teams of lawyers, as well as the accused and the judge, all form a social network with cliques and leaders. This division of individuals into specific cliques, along with the lawyers' performance in court, is hypothesized to have a significant impact on the jury's verdict. Thus, by specifically studying the lawyers' engagement and disengagement on the jurors during a trial and the impact this has on the verdict, as well as understanding the structure of the social network that the individual jurors create, I hope to shed light on some of the influences that are key in delivering the verdict. In addition, this pioneering study may lead to significant policy changes in the future.
18
Alfardan, Salman Ebrahim. "Towards participative decision making". Thesis, University of Hull, 2006. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.431052.
Testo completo
19
Newall, Philip W. S. "Household financial decision making". Thesis, University of Stirling, 2016. http://hdl.handle.net/1893/24473.
Testo completoAbstract (sommario):
Households are nowadays required to make financial decisions of increasing complexity in an increasing number of domains. This thesis explores psychological mechanisms, behavior change interventions, and potential inhibitory factors underlying wise household financial decisions in the domains of gambling advertising and mutual fund investing. In-depth investigations of these two domains were chosen to balance the depth of topic coverage versus the wide breadth of modern financial decision making. UK soccer gambling advertising was investigated via two observational studies and a range of online experiments. The experiments found that soccer fans struggle to form coherent expectations for the complex bets featuring in UK soccer gambling advertising. Mutual fund investors have to balance a number of cues in their investment choices. Normatively, mutual fund investors should minimize fees. However, a number of investors choose to maximize past returns instead. Three chapters investigate how mutual fund fees and financial percentage returns are psychologically processed, in order to uncover beneficial behavior change interventions. Many participants processed percentages additively, rather than follow the correct multiplicative strategy. Both percentages and corresponding “small” currency amounts were associated with systematic biases. Participant responses were closest to the normative strategy when either past returns were framed as a “small” currency amount, or when fees were framed as a 10 year currency amount. “Some people invest based on past performance, but funds with low fees have the highest future results” was the most effective disclaimer at nudging fee-sensitivity against the real world status quo, “Past performance does not predict future results.”
20
Möller, Niklas. "Safety and decision-making /". Stockholm, 2006. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-3852.
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21
Judge, Kevin D. "Decision making in spectroscopy /". View online ; access limited to URI, 2007. http://0-digitalcommons.uri.edu.helin.uri.edu/dissertations/AAI3276987.
Testo completo
22
Jensen, Jan L. "Paramedic Clinical Decision Making". BMC Emergency Medicine, 2009. http://hdl.handle.net/10222/12738.
Testo completoAbstract (sommario):
Paramedics are responsible for the care of patients requiring emergency assistance in the out of hospital setting. These health care providers need to make many decisions during the course of an emergency call. This thesis on paramedic clinical decision-making includes two studies, intended to determine which decisions paramedics make that are most important for patient safety and clinical outcome, and what thinking strategies paramedics rely on to make decisions. Forty-two decisions were found to be most important for outcome and safety. The highest decision density of an emergency call is during the on-scene treatment phase. Paramedics use a mix of thinking strategies, including rule out worst scenario, algorithmic, and exhaustive thinking. The results of these studies have implications for future research, paramedic practice and training.
23
Kapur, Sandeep. "Flexibility in decision-making". Thesis, University of Cambridge, 1992. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.241019.
Testo completo
24
Preston, John. "Improving retail decision making". Thesis, Lancaster University, 1989. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.279647.
Testo completo
25
Sumida, Brian Hiroshi. "Models of decision making". Thesis, University of Oxford, 1989. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.329967.
Testo completo
26
Zhang, Jie. "Essays in decision making". Thesis, Lancaster University, 2011. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.651294.
Testo completoAbstract (sommario):
In this thesis, we illustrate with a parametric specification how the Markowitz model, supplemented with a small degree of probability distortion, is able to explain majority choices in experimental evidence (e.g. Allais paradox), as well as gambling at actuarially unfair odds. We employ a graphical method to reveal that the different parameters employed in Allais experiments have vastly different implications for the ranges of probability distortion and parameters of the value function for which agents will act as if expected utility maximisers, even when they exhibit probability distortion. Regarding children's risk attitude, there was only one study, Harbaugh, Krause and Vesterlund (2002), prior to our work. Our experimental results in China for children and high school students are similar in some aspects, and broadly consistent with those of Harbaugh, Krause and Vesterlund (2002) in that over a range of low probabilities they appear to underweight small probabilities. Our results for Chinese adults are not consistent with the results reported for western respondents, but are consistent with those reported for some non-western respondents. We demonstrate that the assumption of an expo-power value function is able, depending on the degree of probability distortion assumed, to explain all or nearly all the majority choices in ten Allais experiments involving both small and large payoffs. We report two experiments to demonstrate that coefficient of variance (cv) is not a proper candidate for the basis of choice in general. Through estimates based on simulated and real data sets, we demonstrate how estimated parameter values are implicitly constrained to fit either expected utility or the cumulative prospect theory when power utility is assumed. Harrison et al. (2010)'5 data set is also used to show that the majority responses of agents reported in the experiment of Harrison et al. (2010) are consistent with the Markowitz model and that the estilTjated Markowilz model is the most parsimonious specification. We also conduct experiments and our results indicate that subjects' risk attitude is consistent with Markowitz (1952)'s assumption, especially that the degree of risk aversion rises with rising payoffs. We use a model employing an expo-power value function and Prelec's probability weighting function to explain our experimental results. The model also explains subjects betting on longshot unfair gambles, odds-on unfair gambles and 50-50 symmetriC unfair gambles, which Cumulative Prospect Theory (CPT) could not do.
27
Critz, John W. "Understanding optimal decision-making". Thesis, Monterey, California: Naval Postgraduate School, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/10945/45832.
Testo completoAbstract (sommario):
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimitedThe military has realized that their most valuable and adaptable assets are its leaders. Understanding optimal decision-making will allow the military to more effectively train its leaders. The Cognitive Alignment with Performance Targeted Training Intervention Model (CAPTTIM) was developed to aid the training of optimal decision making. CAPTTIM determines when decision performance (categorized as near-optimal or suboptimal) is aligned or misaligned with cognitive state (categorized as exploration or exploitation): when someone thinks they have figured out the task (exploitation cognitive state), is their decision performance actually near optimal? Prior research categorized subjects’ cognitive states as exploration or exploitation, but the delineation of decision performance had yet been done. The primary focus of this thesis was to use pre-collected and de-identified data to (1) determine and validate a threshold that delineated near-optimal and suboptimal decision performance with the metric, regret, and (2) categorize the combination of cognitive state and decision performance into CAPTTIM on a trial-by-trial basis. A change point analysis of regret provided an effective threshold delineation of decision performance across all subjects. Visualization techniques were employed to categorize decision and cognitive state data into CAPTTIM on a trial-by-trial basis. Thus, CAPTTIM was validated as a means of understanding decision-making.
28
Chang, Tom Y. 1976. "Essays in decision making". Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2009. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/54641.
Testo completoAbstract (sommario):
Thesis (Ph. D.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Economics, 2009.Cataloged from PDF version of thesis.
Includes bibliographical references (p. 155-168).
This thesis explores the impact of individual decision making on the functioning of firms and markets. The first chapter examines how deviations from strict rationality by individuals impact the market for consumer goods. A growing body of evidence documents individual behavior that is difficult to reconcile with standard models of rational choice, and firm behavior difficult to reconcile with rational markets. In this paper I present a boundedly rational model of choice that reconciles several behavioral anomalies, and provides micro-foundational support for some puzzling empirical regularities in firm behavior. If the evaluation of an alternative is costly, individuals may find it inefficient to compare all available alternatives. Instead, when faced with an unfeasibly large choice set, some individuals may compare groups of alternatives (i.e. categories) to reduce the choice set into a more manageable set of relevant alternatives. I call these individuals categorical considerers and develop a model in which these decision makers sequentially apply a single well-behaved preference relation at different levels of aggregation. I explore the implications of this model for both individual behavior and equilibrium firm behavior in market settings. Under certain conditions, the existence of categorical considerers in a market causes firms to utilize strategies different from what would be optimal in a market of fully rational consumers. This simple model generates predictions about behavior consistent with several new field experiments, and offers possible explanations for excess spatial product differentiation, brand name premiums, and product branding.
(cont.) The second chapter, written jointly with Mireille Jacobson, explores the question of what exactly not-for-profit hospitals maximize. While theories of not-for-profit hospital behavior abound, most are general statements of preferences and do not yield empirically testable (differentiable) predictions. To address this shortcoming we use a unified theoretical framework to model three popular theories of not-for profit hospital behavior: (1) "for-profits in disguise," (2) social welfare maximizers and (3) perquisite maximizers. We develop testable implications of a hospital's response to a fixed cost shock under each of these theories. We then examine the effect of a recent un-funded mandate in California that requires hospitals to retrofit or rebuild in order to comply with modern seismic safety standards. Since the majority of hospitals in the State were built between 1940 and 1970, well before a sophisticated understanding of seismic safety, a hospital's compliance cost is plausibly exogenously predetermined by its underlying geologic risk. We present evidence that within counties seismic risk is uncorrelated with a host of hospital characteristics, including ownership type. We show that hospitals with higher seismic risk experience larger increases in the category of spending that should be affected by retrofitting and that hospitals facing higher compliance costs are more likely to shut down, irrespective of ownership type. In contrast, private not-for-profits alone increase their mix of profitable services such as neonatal intensive care days and MRI minutes.
(cont.) Government hospitals respond by decreasing the provision of charity care. As expected, for-profit hospitals do not change their service mix in response to this shock. These results are most consistent with the theory of not-for-profit hospitals as perquisite maximizers and allow us to reject two of the leading theories of not-for-profit hospital behavior - "for-profits in disguise" and "pure altruism." These results also imply that government owned hospitals have welfare as their maximand. More work is needed to determine the overall welfare implications of these different ownership structures. The third chapter, written jointly with Antoinette Schoar, examines the impact of individual judges on the disposition and long run success of firms seeking Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. Using case information on Chapter 11 filings for almost 5000 private companies across five district courts in the US between 1989 and 2004, we first establish that within districts cases are assigned randomly to judges, which allows us to estimate judge specific fixed effects in their Chapter 11 rulings. We find very strong and economically significant differences across judges in the propensity to grant or deny specific motions. Specifically some judges appear to rule persistently more favorably towards creditors or debtors. Based on the judge fixed effects we created an aggregate index to measure the pro-debtor (pro-creditor) friendliness of each judge. We show that a pro-debtor bias leads to increased rates of re-filing and firm shutdown as well as lower post-bankruptcy credit ratings and lower annual sales growth up to five years after the original bankruptcy filing.
by Tom Y. Chang.
Ph.D.
29
Zápal, Jan. "Dynamic group decision making". Thesis, London School of Economics and Political Science (University of London), 2012. http://etheses.lse.ac.uk/448/.
Testo completoAbstract (sommario):
A common theme running throughout the three chapters of this thesis is dynamic recurring group decision making. The first chapter sets up a model with endogenous status-quo (dynamic bargaining model) in which decision makers are uncertain about their own future preferences. The main focus of the chapter is on how different bargaining protocols influence equilibrium decisions. The two protocols considered are i) implicit status-quo bargaining protocol in which present period policy serves as the status-quo for the next period and ii) explicit status-quo bargaining protocol in which the current decision involves both current policy and a possibly different status-quo for the future. The main observation of the chapter is that the former bargaining protocol leads to decisions diverging from the preferences of the actors involved even in the periods in which their preferences coincide, this divergence being driven by the concerns to maintain a bargaining position for the future. The latter bargaining protocol, on the other hand, delivers decisions fully reflecting preferences of the actors involved in the periods when these coincide, but may lead to decisions re ecting only the proposer's preferences. The second chapter shows how to construct equilibria in a class of dy-namic bargaining models in which players have fixed preferences over all the dimensions of a policy space. The construction applies both to one-dimensional and multi-dimensional policy spaces and delivers equilibria with simple and intuitive structure. The chapter works out several examples to show i) the multiplicity of equilibria and ii) the non-monotonicity of the existence of the simple equilibria in the underlying model parameters. The third paper is a collaborative work with Roman Horvath and Katerina Smidkova from the Czech National Bank currently published as a CNB working paper). The chapter analyses decision making in monetary policy committees, the decision making bodies of central banks. On the empirical side, the chapter shows that voting records of monetary policy committees are informative about their own future decisions. On the theoretical side, the chapter shows that the voting records' predictive power can be generated through theoretical models used in the group decision making literature.
30
Chen, Shuwei. "Ordering based decision making". Thesis, Ulster University, 2014. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.604660.
Testo completoAbstract (sommario):
Decision making is the crucial step in many real applications such as financial planning, organization management, products evaluation and recommendation. Qualitative information is widely used for expressing evaluations or preferences of experts among alternatives under different criteria. In many cases, decision making is to order alternatives and select the top one or few in the rank ordering of the alternatives. Orderings provide a very natural and effective way of resolving indeterminate situations in real life decision making problems. This thesis focuses on the representation and reasoning with qualitative ordering information for decision making, ordering based decision making. Such a decision making paradigm reflects the qualitative nature of various decision making scenarios where the available information for decision making can only be preferential ordering comparisons between decision alternatives and numerical approximation is not available or needed. This thesis proposes a lattice-ordered linguistic-valued logic based reasoning framework for multi-criteria decision making problems where the qualitative preferences from experts are in lattice order, a consensus group decision making model with partially ordered preference associated with belief degrees, and an automated reasoning based hierarchical framework for video based human activity recognition. This ordering based reasoning and decision making research aims to provide an alternative qualitative framework for handling uncertain ordering information in decision making problems. This research intends to enhance the quantitative theory of decision science with qualitative, algebraic and logic-oriented approaches for representing, aggregating and reasoning with ordering information.
31
Riseth, Asbjørn Nilsen. "Algorithms for decision making". Thesis, University of Oxford, 2018. http://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:a66e17dc-a626-4226-82f6-2d716f8690fd.
Testo completoAbstract (sommario):
We investigate algorithms for different steps in the decision making process, focusing on systems where we are uncertain about the outcomes but can quantify how probable they are using random variables. Any decision one makes in such a situation leads to a distribution of outcomes and requires a way to evaluate a decision. The standard approach is to marginalise the distribution of outcomes into a single number that tries in some way to summarise the value of each decision. After selecting a marginalisation approach, mathematicians and decision makers focus their analysis on the marginalised value but ignore the distribution. We argue that we should also be investigating the implications of the chosen mathematical approach for the whole distribution of outcomes. We illustrate the effect different mathematical formulations have on the distribution with one-stage and sequential decision problems. We show that different ways to marginalise the distributions can result in very similar decisions but each way has a different complexity and computational cost. It is often computationally intractable to approximate optimal decisions to high precision and much research goes into developing algorithms that are suboptimal in the marginalised sense, but work within the computational budget available. If the performance of these algorithms is evaluated they are mainly judged based on the marginalised values, however, comparing the performance using the full distribution provides interesting information: We provide numerical examples from dynamic pricing applications where the suboptimal algorithm results in higher profit than the optimal algorithm in more than half of the realisations, which is paid for with a more significant underperformance in the remaining realisations. All the problems discussed in this thesis lead to continuous optimisation problems. We develop a new algorithm that can be used on top of existing optimisation algorithms to reduce the cost of approximating solutions. The algorithm is tested on a range of optimisation problems and is shown to be competitive with existing methods.
32
Mohemkar-Kheirandish, Reza. "Intra-Household Decision Making". Diss., Virginia Tech, 2008. http://hdl.handle.net/10919/29215.
Testo completoAbstract (sommario):
This dissertation consists of three essays. In the first one (Chapter three), "Gains and Losses from Household Formation," I introduce a general equilibrium model, wherein a household may consist of more than one member, each with their own preferences and endowments. In these models at first, individuals form households. Then, collective decisions (or bargaining) within the household specifies the consumption plans of household members. Finally, competition across households determines a feasible allocation of resources. I consider a model with two types of individuals and pure group externalities. I investigate the competitive equilibrium allocation and stability of the equilibrium in that setting. Specifically, I show that under a certain set of assumptions a competitive equilibrium with free exit is also a competitive equilibrium with free household formation. Similar results are obtained for a special case of consumption externality. Illustrative examples, where prices may change as household structures change, are used to show how general equilibrium model with variable household structure works and some interesting results are discussed at the end of the first essay.
In the second essay (Chapter four), “Effects of the Price System on Household Labor Supply,” I introduce leisure and labor into the two-type economy framework that was constructed in the first essay. The main objective of this essay is to investigate the effects of exogenous prices on the labor supply decisions, and completely analyze the partial equilibrium model outcomes in a two-type economy setting. I assume a wage gap and explore the effect of that gap on labor supply. The main content of the second essay is the analysis of the effect of change in wages, price of the private good, power of each individual in the household, relative importance of private consumption compared to leisure, and the level of altruism on individual's decisions about how much private good or leisure he/she wants to consume. The effect of a relative price change on labor supply, private consumption and utility level is also investigated. Moreover, one of the variations of Spence's signaling model is borrowed to explain why higher education of women in Iran does not necessarily translate into higher female labor force participation. Finally, fixed point theorem is used to calculate the power (or alternatively labor supply) of individuals in the household endogenously for the two-type economy with labor at the end of this essay.
In the third essay (Chapter five), “Dynamics of Poverty in Iran: What Are the Determinants of the Probability of Being Poor?,” I explore the characteristics of the households who fall below the poverty line and stay there as well as those who climb up later. I decompose poverty in Iran into chronic and transient poverty, and investigate the relation of each component of poverty with certain characteristics of households. I also study mobility and the main characteristics of growth in expenditure of households. One of the main issues in economic policy making nowadays is the evaluation of effectiveness of anti-poverty programs. In order to achieve this goal one should be able to track down a household for a period of time. In this essay, I am going to investigate the dynamics of poverty in Iran during 1992-95. I am especially interested in finding the characteristics of the households that fall below the poverty line and stay there in addition to those that climb up later. Obviously, if policy-makers want to have efficient policies to reduce poverty, they should target the former group. I decompose poverty in Iran into chronic and transient poverty, and investigate the relation of each component of poverty with certain characteristics of households. I also study mobility in this period with an emphasis on mobility in and out of poverty and review the main characteristics of the growth in expenditure of households.Ph. D.
33
Miller, Jaclyn Nieman. "Dreaming and decision-making". Case Western Reserve University School of Graduate Studies / OhioLINK, 1991. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=case1055519665.
Testo completo
34
O'Dell, Nicholas West. "Decision-Making Ability Beliefs". The Ohio State University, 2016. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1461084976.
Testo completo
35
Voskuilen, Chelsea E. "Models of Decision-Making". The Ohio State University, 2017. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1493980931635752.
Testo completo
36
McInerney, Robert E. "Decision making under uncertainty". Thesis, University of Oxford, 2014. http://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:a34e87ad-8330-42df-8ba6-d55f10529331.
Testo completoAbstract (sommario):
Operating and interacting in an environment requires the ability to manage uncertainty and to choose definite courses of action. In this thesis we look to Bayesian probability theory as the means to achieve the former, and find that through rigorous application of the rules it prescribes we can, in theory, solve problems of decision making under uncertainty. Unfortunately such methodology is intractable in realworld problems, and thus approximation of one form or another is inevitable. Many techniques make use of heuristic procedures for managing uncertainty. We note that such methods suffer unreliable performance and rely on the specification of ad-hoc variables. Performance is often judged according to long-term asymptotic performance measures which we also believe ignores the most complex and relevant parts of the problem domain. We therefore look to develop principled approximate methods that preserve the meaning of Bayesian theory but operate with the scalability of heuristics. We start doing this by looking at function approximation in continuous state and action spaces using Gaussian Processes. We develop a novel family of covariance functions which allow tractable inference methods to accommodate some of the uncertainty lost by not following full Bayesian inference. We also investigate the exploration versus exploitation tradeoff in the context of the Multi-Armed Bandit, and demonstrate that principled approximations behave close to optimal behaviour and perform significantly better than heuristics on a range of experimental test beds.
37
Boldt, Annika. "Metacognition in decision making". Thesis, University of Oxford, 2015. http://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:5d9b2036-cc42-4515-b40e-97bb3ddb1d78.
Testo completoAbstract (sommario):
Humans effortlessly and accurately judge their subjective probability of being correct in a given decision, leading to the view that metacognition is integral to decision making. This thesis reports a series of experiments assessing people’s confidence and error-detection judgements. These different types of metacognitive judgements are highly similar with regard to their methodology, but have been studied largely separately. I provide data indicating that these judgements are fundamentally linked and that they rely on shared cognitive and neural mechanisms. As a first step towards such a joint account of confidence and error detection, I present simulations from a computational model that is based on the notion these judgements are based on the same underlying processes. I next focus on how metacognitive signals are utilised to enhance cognitive control by means of a modulation of information seeking. I report data from a study in which participants received performance feedback, testing the hypothesis that participants will focus more on feedback when they are uncertain whether they were correct in the current trial, whilst ignoring feedback when they are certain regarding their accuracy. A final question addressed in this thesis asks which information contributes internally to the formation of metacognitive judgements, given that it remains a challenge for most models of confidence to explain the precise mechanisms by which confidence reflects accuracy, under which circumstances this correlation is reduced, and the role other influences might have, such as the inherent reliability of a source of evidence. The results reported here suggest that multiple variables – such as response time and reliability of evidence – play a role in the generation of metacognitive judgements. Inter-individual differences with regard to the utilisation of these cues to confidence are tested. Taken together, my results suggest that metacognition is crucially involved in decision making and cognitive control.
38
Cook, Jennifer, Erika Caine e Matt Potter. "Student Pharmacist Decision Making". The University of Arizona, 2010. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/623760.
Testo completoAbstract (sommario):
Class of 2010 AbstractOBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study is to determine the effects of professional pharmacy educational training and occupational student pharmacist training towards the quantity of medication errors attributed to not investigating drug-drug interactions and/or not acknowledging contraindications for medications and treatment. METHODS: The design was a cross-sectional, analytical study of student pharmacists in their first, second, or third year of a four-year Doctor of Pharmacy program. A questionnaire of patient drug interaction scenarios along with student work experience and demographic survey questions was administered to a class of students to complete and return at the time it was administered. It was a prospective study. RESULTS: Questionnaires were completed by 180 students. None of the classes surveyed scored significantly higher than another class. Students with retail experience did not score significantly higher survey scores than those with hospital experience. Finally, when comparing the scores of students with experience in multiple fields, in comparison to those with experience in only one field of pharmacy, it was noted that there was no statistical significance. CONCLUSIONS: The amount of professional pharmacy education training and occupational student pharmacist experience was not found to have an affect on a student pharmacist’s ability to prevent medication error that was attributed to either not investigating a drug-drug interaction and/or not acknowledging contraindications for medications and treatment.
39
Horton, Joanne. "Intuition in Decision-making". Digital Commons @ East Tennessee State University, 1993. https://dc.etsu.edu/etd/2735.
Testo completoAbstract (sommario):
This was a two-phase study designed to identify intuitive principals and then to determine if there were common elements of their decision making. The Myers-Briggs Type Indicator was used to identify intuitive principals, and then a sampling of these principals were interviewed. The results showed that the principals with the highest preference scores for intuition differed from the principals with lower preference scores in that they came from supportive environments, were more conscious of using and developing their intuition, drew from experience but combined that with a future orientation, and were more comfortable with risk-taking and change. Recommendations included the suggestion that inservice and preparation programs should include the identification of intuitive thinkers and an environment conducive to the development of intuition.
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Ngangoue, Kathleen Maryse. "Decision-Making in Markets". Doctoral thesis, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.18452/18653.
Testo completoAbstract (sommario):
Diese Dissertation erforscht, auf welchen unterschiedlichen Wegen Informationsverarbeitung Investitionsentscheidungen beeinflusst. Auf der Basis kontrollierter Laborexperimente wird untersucht, wie Entscheidungen mit der Art der Information sowie mit dem Entscheidungskontext variieren. Im ersten Kapitel legt ein Experiment die Schwierigkeit mit hypothetischem Denken bzw. mit dem Lernen aus hypothetischen Ereignissen offen. Im Kapitel Zwei untersucht ein anderes Experiment, wie Informationsverarbeitung die Reaktionen der Investoren auf Ambiguität verändert, denn ein eindeutiges, optimales Lernverhalten gibt es unter Ambiguität nicht. Das letzte Kapitel stellt anhand desselben Experiments die Unabhängigkeit zwischen dem Lernprozess und den Risikopräferenzen in Frage.This dissertation investigates various channels through which information processing affects investment decisions. Controlled laboratory experiments allow for studying how subjects’ decisions vary with the type of information and the decision-context. The experiment in the first chapter discloses the difficulty with contingent reasoning, i.e. learning from hypothetical events. A different experiment in Chapter Two analyzes how information processing changes investors’ reactions to ambiguity—an environment with multiple rational learning rules. Using the same experiment, the last chapter questions the independence between belief updating and risk preferences.
41
Böwe, Sabrina. "Entrepreneurs' strategic decision making". Doctoral thesis, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät, 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.18452/16496.
Testo completoAbstract (sommario):
Wie beeinflusst das gleichzeitige Auftreten von strategischer und umfeldbedingter Unsicherheit das Entscheidungsverhalten? Unterscheiden sich Unternehmer in dieser Hinsicht von Anderen? Die vorliegende Dissertation behandelt diese Fragen und untersucht das Koordinationsverhalten bei dualer Unsicherheit. In vier ökonomischen Experimenten wird das Entscheidungsverhalten von Unternehmern und Nicht-Unternehmern vergleichend analysiert. Die betrachteten Entscheidungssituationen beinhalten Investitionsentscheidungen in Forschung und Entwicklung sowie verschiedene Aspekte des Wettbewerbs und von Markteintrittsentscheidungen.How do people make decisions when simultaneously facing strategic and environmental uncertainty? Do entrepreneurs differ from others in this regards? This dissertation addresses these questions by investigating coordination behavior under dual uncertainty. Four economic experiments have been conducted comparing the behavior of entrepreneurs and non-entrepreneurs in settings that contain investment decisions into research and development and different aspects of competition and market entry decisions.
42
Zokaei, Ashtiani Amin. "Essay in decision making". Doctoral thesis, Luiss Guido Carli, 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/11385/201127.
Testo completoAbstract (sommario):
In the first chapter, I investigate the causes behind the choice reversal,
as procrastination of consumption good, by employing the evaluation of
anticipatory feelings. To this aim, I adopt a dynamic experiment protocol over
multiple points of the time. It allows me to disentangle anticipatory feelings
from uncertainty and intertemporal consistency in intertemporal choices. I
found that anticipatory feeling might be a significant possible explanation
behind the choice reversal.
In the second chapter, I discuss an experimental study comparing
happiness between US Americans and Germans regarding their behaviors in
saving and spending the money. I approach the relation between money and
happiness by concentrating on two functions of money (saving and spending)
and explore how happiness is affected by them. I also explore how social
status affects happiness and how this differs between Americans and
Germans. My main findings are: First, German self-classified savers who
save and American self-classified spenders who spend are happier; Secondly,
people receive happiness not only from absolute wealth, but also from relative
wealth in comparison to others; Thirdly, relative wealth (social rank) is
significantly more important to Americans than to Germans.
43
Polk, Thomas E. "Decision making strategies : the influence of task complexity, decision importance, decision maker impulsivity, and decision maker gender /". Thesis, This resource online, 1990. http://scholar.lib.vt.edu/theses/available/etd-03122009-040747/.
Testo completo
44
Skenderija, Tea. "Emotion regulation and its influence on decision making : Emotion regulation and decision making". Thesis, Högskolan i Skövde, Institutionen för biovetenskap, 2018. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:his:diva-15757.
Testo completoAbstract (sommario):
One thing that may affect our decision making is emotions, and emotions are something we can regulate, this is referred to as emotion regulation. the use of emotion regulation strategies influence our decision making how this process out at the neural level The findings within this will suggest that the emotion regulation strategy reappraisal, compared to suppression, our decision making At the neural level, findings within this will indicate that neural changes may occur when individuals regulate their emotions in relation to making decisions. For instance, decreased activity within the striatum was associated with making less risky decisions when using the emotion regulation strategy reappraisal. On the other hand, the ventromedial prefrontal cortex may be important in mediating the neural systems of emotional states and working memory in order to enable decision making. This will also cover some prominent theories of emotion and decision making. Emotion regulation, as well as strategies for emotion regulation, will be explained.
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Tonelli, Marcello. "Unstructured strategic decision-making processes : CRE decision-making in the Italian consulting industry". Thesis, Queensland University of Technology, 2009. https://eprints.qut.edu.au/30408/1/Marcello_Tonelli_Thesis.pdf.
Testo completoAbstract (sommario):
This thesis aims at developing a better understanding of unstructured strategic decision making processes and the conditions for achieving successful decision outcomes. Specifically it focuses on the processes used to make CRE (Corporate Real Estate) decisions. The starting point for this thesis is that our knowledge of such processes is incomplete. A comprehensive study of the most recent CRE literature together with Behavioural Organization Theory has provided a research framework for the exploration of CRE recommended =best practice‘, and of how organizational variables impact on and shape these practices. To reveal the fundamental differences between CRE decision-making in practice and the prescriptive =best practice‘ advocated in the CRE literature, a study of seven Italian management consulting firms was undertaken addressing the aspects of content and process of decisions. This thesis makes its primary contribution by identifying the importance and difficulty of finding the right balance between problem complexity, process richness and cohesion to ensure a decision-making process that is sufficiently rich and yet quick enough to deliver a prompt outcome. While doing so, this research also provides more empirical evidence to some of the most established theories of decision-making while reinterpreting their mono-dimensional arguments in a multi-dimensional model of successful decision-making.
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Grevet, Jean-Louis M. "Decision aiding and coordination in decision-making organizations". Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1988. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/14670.
Testo completo
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Aguilar, Lleyda David. "Sensorimotor decision-making with moving objects". Doctoral thesis, Universitat de Barcelona, 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/10803/461673.
Testo completoAbstract (sommario):
Moving is essential for us to survive, and in countless occasions we move in response to visual information. However, this process is characterized as uncertain, given the variability present both at the sensory and motor stages. A crucial question, then, is how to deal with this uncertainty in order for our actions to lead to the best possible outcomes.
Statistical decision theory (SDT) is a normative framework that establishes how people should make decisions in the presence of uncertainty. This theory identifies the optimal action as that which maximizes the expected reward (outcome) of the situation. Movement planning can be reformulated in terms of SDT, so that the focus is placed on the decisional component. Some experimental work making use of this theoretical approach has concluded that humans are optimal movement planners, while other has identified situations where suboptimality arises. However, sensorimotor decision-making within SDT has commonly eluded scenarios of interaction with moving objects. At the same time, the work devoted to moving objects has not focused on the decisional aspect. The present thesis aims at bridging both fields, with each of our three studies trying to answer different questions.
Given the spatiotemporal nature of situations with moving objects, we can plan our actions by relying on both temporal and spatial cues provided by the object. In Study I we investigated whether exploiting more one type of these visual cues led to a better performance, as defined by the reward given after each action. In our task we presented a target, which could vary in speed and motion time, approaching a line. Participants responded to stop the target and were rewarded according to its proximity to the line. Responding after the target crossed the line was penalized. We discovered that those participants planning their responses based on time-based motion cues had a better performance than those monitoring the target’s changing spatial position. This was due to the former approach circumventing a limitation imposed by the resolution of the visual system. We also found that viewing the object for longer favored time-based responses, as mediated by longer integration time. Finally, we used existing SDT models to obtain a reference of optimality, but we defend that these models are limited to interpret our data.
Study II built on our previous findings to explore whether the use of temporal cues could be learnt. We took our previous paradigm and adapted it so that reward was manipulated after each task in order to foster exploiting temporal information. There was no evidence for learning taking place, since participants using temporal cues did so from the start of the experiment. Whether other methods reward can shape the use of certain cues, and why some people naturally tend to make more use of temporal information, still remain elusive.
Study III deepened our knowledge on which variability people consider when planning their responses. We hypothesized that the reason why people are suboptimal (as defined by SDT) in many situations is because they represent only their measurement variability, roughly equivalent to the execution noise, while excluding the variability created by sudden changes in their planning. We took previous data and used a Kalman filter to extract each participant’s measurement variability. We then used it to compute SDT-derived optimal responses, and discovered that they explained well our data, giving support to our hypothesis. We also found evidence for participants using the information provided by reward both to avoid being penalized and to choose the point at which to stabilize their responses.
Taken together, our experimental work presents interaction with moving objects as a complex set of situations where different information guides our response planning. Firstly, visual cues of different origin. Secondly, our variability, coming from many sources, some of which may not be considered. Finally, the outcomes related to each action.Moure’s és essencial per a la nostra supervivència, i en incomptables ocasions ens movem en resposta a informació visual. Tanmateix, aquest procés és incert, donada la variabilitat present tant a l'estadi sensorial com en el motor. Una pregunta crucial, doncs, és com gestionar aquesta incertesa perquè les nostres accions portin a les millors conseqüències possibles. La teoria de la decisió estadística (Statistical decision theory, SDT) és un marc teòric normatiu que estableix com la gent hauria de fer decisions en presència d'incertesa. Aquesta teoria identifica l'acció òptima amb aquella que maximitza la recompensa (entesa com a conseqüència) esperada de la situació. La planificació del moviment pot ser reformulada en termes de SDT, de tal manera que s’emfatitza el component decisional. Diferents treballs experimentals que han fet servir aquesta aproximació teòrica han conclòs que els humans som planificadors de moviment òptims, mentre que altres han identificat situacions on la suboptimalitat sorgeix. No obstant això, la presa de decisions sensoriomotora des de SDT normalment ha ignorat escenaris que requereixen d'interacció com objectes en moviment. Alhora, els treballs dedicats als objectes en moviment no s'han centrat en l'aspecte de decisió. La present tesi es proposa acostar els dos camps, amb cada un dels nostres tres estudis intentant respondre diferents preguntes. L’Estudi I descobrí que, per planificar les nostres decisions, fer servir informació temporal portà a un millor rendiment que fer servir informació espacial, i això fou facilitat per veure l'objecte durant més temps. També vam criticar la limitació de certs models d’SDT per interpretar els nostres dades. L'Estudi II intentà promoure l'ús d'informació temporal, tot i que no s’aconseguí fomentar l’aprenentatge. Finalment, l’'Estudi III trobà que la raó per la qual la gent és subòptima en moltes situacions es deu al fet que representa només la seva variabilitat de mesura, més o menys equivalent al soroll d'execució, mentre que s'exclou la variabilitat creada per sobtats canvis en la planificació de la resposta. També trobàrem que els participants van usar la informació donada per la recompensa tant per evitar ser penalitzats com per escollir el punt on estabilitzar les seves respostes.
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Karlsson, Markus. "The Neuroscience of Decision Making : The Importance of Emotional Neural Circuits in Decision Making". Thesis, Högskolan i Skövde, Institutionen för biovetenskap, 2018. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:his:diva-16033.
Testo completoAbstract (sommario):
The neuroscience of decision making is laying the puzzle of how the brain computes decisions. It tries to sort out which factors are responsible for causing us to choose one way or the other. This thesis reviews to what extent emotional brain processes and their neural circuits impact decision making. The somatic marker hypothesis (SMH) provides a solid dual-system framework for decision making. Dissociating an impulsive system, in which the amygdala is central, and a reflective system mediated by the ventromedial prefrontal cortex(VMPFC). The SMH emphasizes the function of the VMPFC as necessary and crucial formaking favorable long-term decisions. Research on moral decision making also shows that similar systems as used by the SMH has a key role in how we think about moral dilemmas as well. Damage or maldevelopment of these neural circuits can cause myopia for the future and deeply immoral behavior. Abnormalities in emotional neuronal circuits can also be linked to addictive behavior and psychopathy. The findings on decision making and its neuralsubstrates dismantle the common sense notion of free will and moral responsibility. An explanation of how the feeling of free will arises is given using the Interpreter system theoryof consciousness. Moral responsibility without the need for a free will is defended by analternative approach with a framework of a brain in-control versus out-of-control.
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Tavian, Fabiana <1995>. "Decision making problems: A comparison of AHP, Secretary Problem and other decision making techniques". Master's Degree Thesis, Università Ca' Foscari Venezia, 2019. http://hdl.handle.net/10579/16058.
Testo completoAbstract (sommario):
In my final thesis I will introduce you the decision making theories and what is behind the act of taking a decision. As we know, decision-making problems constitute a vast field that includes: cognitive and personal biases, decision processes, and information about states of nature. All of them influence in a certain way the method used to take a decision or choose one alternative in respect to another one.
Analysed that, I will explain theoretically what the Analytic Hierarchy Process consists of, how it works, and when the process is considered to be valid or invalid: the inconsistency index and the sensitivity analysis. Then, in order to better understand what is so far described, a numerical example is carried out.
Another chapter will focus on a case study, regarding the Port of Trieste, where the AHP process was properly used to decide what is the best alternative to choose among the existing four. Indeed, this practical example talks about the decision of investing for the improvement of the Port of Trieste, according to the European Union TEN-T policy.
Finally I will conclude with the description of another decision making technique, the so called Secretary Problem: his historical background, the standard formulation and other alternative solutions. What I want to stress is, in fact, the comparison between these two processes: the above-mentioned AHP and the Secretary Problem. Other models will also be explained, such as: the Cayley’s problem, the Kepler’s problem and the game of Googol.
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Mertens, Daniel P. "Backing into decisions: A study of thresholds in decision-making". Diss., The University of Arizona, 2003. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/280369.
Testo completoAbstract (sommario):
Strategic decisions involving mergers and acquisitions often hinge on one or two critical evaluations. Similarly, when hiring a new manager, potential candidates are often rejected if they are lacking on a critical dimension. In my dissertation, I examined the way in which these critical dimensions are used to screen decision alternatives. Specifically, I am examining the nature of Image Theory's violation and rejection thresholds (the compatibility test) in the screening and elimination of undesirable decision options. In contrast to traditional decision theory, which focuses on choice (i.e., maximization of expected value), recent studies suggest that pre-choice screening of options may account for the greater part of one's decision activities and that choice serves merely to select the best of the options that survive screening. The point of the present research is to explore the variables that influence decision makers' appraisal of option compatibility. For example, I determined one such variable as the "killer variable", which is a feature of an option that is extreme in nature (wholly unacceptable or acceptable) to the decision maker. Its inclusion, regardless of the attractiveness of the rest of the option's features, counteracts usual decisions. My research also determined that individual features have the ability to effect the rejection, as well as the violation, threshold. My research tests this and similar hypotheses about screening.