Tesi sul tema "CO2 emission mitigation"

The rapid industrialization, population growth, urbanization and economic and social development cause many environmental problems, such as climate change which is the result of the increase in the emission of greenhouse gases (GHGs) especially CO2. Combustion of fossil fuels, particularly from electricity generation, has the major responsibility for CO2 emissions. Decreasing the amount of CO2 emission requires a significant shift from our present energy use pattern toward one of lesser reliance on fossil fuels. Using renewable energy sources is one of the ways to supply some of the electricity demand reducing the associated GHG emissions and thus decreasing the adverse effects of climate change. In this study, generated electricity associated CO2 emissions and the specific CO2 emission factors are calculated based on IPCC methodology for each fuel type and each thermal power plant for Turkey between 2001 and 2008. The electricity demand of Turkey is estimated to increase about 7% annually till to 2019. Based on the planned power plant data obtained from EMRA, it was found that the total electricity supply (planned + existing) will not be sufficient to provide the estimated demand between 2011 and 2019. To overcome supply deficiency problem, four different scenarios are developed and the mitigation potential of CO2 emission from electricity generation based on these scenarios are examined. The results from these scenarios show that there is a significant decrease in the amount of CO2 emission from electricity generation. Renewable Energy Scenario which is the best scenario in terms of mitigation of CO2 emissions, provides to mitigation of 192 millions of CO2 emissions between 2009 and 2019. with respect to BAU scenario

L’urbanisation est un des faits majeurs du 21ème siècle, avec des migrations massives vers les villes des pays en développement. Étant donné l’inertie et la dépendance au sentier qui caractérisent les formes urbaines, il y a un besoin pressant de mettre en place les fondations d’une urbanisation réussie dès aujourd’hui. Un aspect important est de permettre des trajectoires urbaines bas carbone et soutenables et d’éviter des « lock-ins » intensifs en carbone, en particulier pour les émissions provenant du transport urbain. Les progrès technologiques sous la forme de véhicules plus efficaces et de carburants alternatifs ne semblent, aujourd’hui, pas en mesure d’atteindre cet objectif seuls. Et les émissions de CO2 issues du transport urbain étant partiellement un co-produit des formes urbaines, les politiques foncières, de logement et de transport sont de manière croissante reconnues comme des leviers importants pour freiner la demande de transport et promouvoir des modes de transport doux et collectifs qui contribuent à la réduction des émissions.Bien qu’importante, la réduction des émissions de CO2 n’est qu’un objectif parmi d’autres pour les décideurs locaux : agir sur la pauvreté, la fourniture de services publiques de base et l’accès à un logement abordable sont d’autres exemples d’objectifs importants. Des politiques visant à réduire les émissions qui mettraient en péril d’autres buts ou qui se traduiraient par des niveaux de bien-être des populations réduits (principalement à travers des coûts du logement plus élevés) auraient peu de chances d’être acceptées et mises en œuvre. Des politiques climat portant sur le transport urbain se doivent donc d’être à la fois efficaces et politiquement acceptables.Partant de constat, cette thèse examine comment un groupe de politiques et d’investissements urbain, foncier et transport peuvent contribuer à freiner les émissions de CO2 liées au transport urbain et quelles sont les conséquences pour les ménages en termes de bien-être dans les aires urbaines. Cette analyse est conduite à travers le développement, la calibration et l’application à des villes réelles d’un modèle Transports – Usages des sols fondé micro-économiquement (NEDUM-2D)
Urbanization is one of the most defining traits of the 21st century with people flocking to cities in massive numbers in developing countries. Given the inertia and path dependence that urban forms display, there is a strong need to get urbanization right today. One key aspect is to ensure low-carbon and sustainable urban futures and avoid carbon-intensive lock-ins, in particular for emissions stemming from urban transport. Technology in the form of more efficient vehicles and alternative fuels currently does not seem to be able to achieve this goal alone. And as urban transport CO2 emissions are partially a by-product of urban forms; land-use, housing and transport policies are increasingly recognized as important levers to curb transport demand and promote soft and collective transport modes which contribute to emission mitigation.However important, reducing CO2 emissions is but one of city policy makers’ objectives: acting on poverty, providing basic services and access to affordable housing to name a few are equally important. So that policies aiming to reduce emissions, that would jeopardize other goals or result in lower welfare levels (mainly through higher housing costs) have low chances of being accepted and implemented. Successful urban-transport climate policies need to be both effective and politically acceptable.Starting from this assessment, this dissertation investigates how a subset of urban, land and transport policies and investments can contribute to curb transport-related CO2 emissions and what are the welfare consequences for households in urban areas. This is done through the development, calibration and application of a micro-economically founded land use – transport model (NEDUM-2D) to real-world urban areas

Responsible for CO2 emissions of the order of 1 Gt, about 2-3 % of the global total, the shipping sector is part of the challenge to reduce emissions, in order to avoid dangerous climate change. Aiming to inform the sector’s response to the challenge, this research addresses two knowledge gaps. Current methods of estimating carbon emissions from shipping are subject to large uncertainties and lacking with respect to a set of greenhouse gas accounting criteria. Based on Automatic Identification System (AIS) data, a new methodology is developed to monitor fuel consumption and ensuing carbon emissions around the globe. Results from applying the method to a sample fleet of 13 vessels and validating it against fuel consumption records covering a time interval of one year demonstrate that, for the first time, estimating shipping emissions from individual ship AIS movement data has become possible at the global scale. Lacking information on the performance of carbon abatement technologies is the second knowledge gap. Due to its geographical and temporal variability, wind power technology is particularly dependent on a transparent assessment to exploit its carbon saving potential as a freely available and renewable energy source. Numerical performance models of two wind power technologies - a Flettner rotor and a towing kite - are combined with wind velocity data from a weather model to calculate their propulsive power contribution. Average results along five analysed sample routes range between 0.3 MW and 1.0 MW for a single Flettner rotor andbetween 0.1 MW and 0.9 MW for the modelled towing kite. Both methodologies are ready for further use. Applying the AIS-based method to data covering the world fleet may provide a concise, up-to-date view of greenhouse gas emissions from shipping when and where they take place. The wind power technology model can be applied to any shipping route around the world. Next steps towards fully exploring and optimising the potential of wind power technology are outlined. A better understanding of greenhouse gas emissions from shipping and of mitigation options gained from applying the models may, in turn, contribute to the sector’s successful response to the climate change challenge.

This thesis deals with some challenges related to the mitigation of climate change and the overall aim is to present and assess different possibilities for the mitigation of climate change by: • Suggesting some measures with a potential to abate net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, • Discussing ideas for how decision-makers could tackle some of the encountered obstacles linked to these measures, and • Pointing at some problems with the current Kyoto framework and suggesting modifications of it. The quantification of the net CO2 effect from a specific project, frequently referred to as emissions accounting, is an important tool to evaluate projects and strategies for mitigating climate change. This thesis discusses different emissions accounting methods. It is concluded that no single method ought to be used for generalisation purposes, as many factors may affect the real outcome for different projects. The estimated outcome is extremely dependent on the method chosen and, thus, the suggested approach is to apply a broader perspective than the use of a particular method for strategic decisions. The risk of losing the integrity of the Kyoto Protocol when over-simplified emissions accounting methods are applied for the quantification of emission credits that can be obtained by a country with binding emissions targets for projects executed in a country without binding emission targets is also discussed. Driving forces and obstacles with regard to energy-related co-operations between industries and district heating companies have been studied since they may potentially reduce net GHG emissions. The main conclusion is that favourable techno-economic circumstances are not sufficient for the implementation of a co-operation; other factors like people with the true ambition to co-operate are also necessary. How oxy-fuel combustion for CO2 capture and storage (CCS) purposes may be much more efficiently utilised together with some industrial processes than with power production processes is also discussed. As cost efficiency is relevant for the Kyoto framework, this thesis suggests that CCS performed on CO2 from biomass should be allowed to play on a level playing field with CCS from fossil sources, as the outcome for the atmosphere is independent of the origin of the CO2.
QC 20101015

Land-cover change is the second most important source of anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions, generating around 7-14% of the total carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions around the world. More than one million km2 of tropical forests were lost during the period 2000-2012 around the world, from which forests-to-pasture conversion was the most common land-use change in key regions such as the Amazon. Strategies to mitigate climate change by reducing deforestation and forest degradation (e.g. REDD+) require country- or region-specific information on carbon (C) stocks in forests and their dynamics with land-cover change, in order to develop accurate Forest Reference Emission Levels (FRELs) to be submitted to the UNFCCC as benchmarks for assessing the performance of countries participating in REDD+ activities. Nevertheless, FREL development is incipient and their elaboration is mostly based on highly uncertain Tier 1 information from IPCC. In this research I present the first region-specific Tier 3 information and emission factors on soil, dead wood and below-ground biomass C pools and their dynamics during 20 years of forest-to-pasture conversion under different management practices in the Colombian Amazon. Based on these region-specific Tier 3 emission factors on C stocks in forests and their change after pasture establishment, I report for the first time the net CO2 emissions from forest-to-pasture conversion in the Colombian Amazon. The results also demonstrate that Tier 3 region-specific information is 70% higher and is substantially more accurate than estimates based on using IPCC Tier 1 information, which emphasizes the urgency for countries implementing REDD+ to develop improved data and methodologies. The information reported here will contribute to strengthening the REDD+ National Strategy of Colombia, by supplying accurate data and models that can be included within the next Colombian FREL.

This thesis puts forth the means of a strategic approach to address a persistent problem in the energy system and in this way, to transition the built environment to a future state that is more exergy-aware to curb CO2 emissions. Such a vision is made possible by the six-fold contributions of the research work: I) An analytical model is developed, which for the first time, formulates the CO2 emissions that are compounded in the energy system as a function of the systematic failures to match the supply and demand of exergy. This model is namely the Rational Exergy Management Model or REMM. II) REMM is then applied to analyze the pathways in which it is possible to lead the built environment into addressing structural overshoots in its exergy supply to curb CO2 emissions. The cases that embody these pathways are also analyzed over a base case, including cases for sustainable heating and cooling. III) New tools are designed to augment decision-making and exemplify a paradigm shift in the more rational usage of exergy to curb CO2 emissions. These include a scenario-based analysis tool, new options for CO2 wedges, and a multi-fold solution space for CO2 mitigation strategies based on REMM. IV) The concept of a net-zero exergy building (NZEXB) is developed and related to REMM strategies as the building block of an exergy-aware energy system. The target of a NZEXB is further supported by key design principles, which address shortcomings in state-of-the-art net-zero design. V) A premier building that deployed the key design principles to integrate building technology in an innovative, exergy-aware design and received LEED Platinum is analyzed on the basis of the NZEXB target. The results validate that this building boosts net self-sufficiency and curbs compound CO2 emissions, which are then presented in a proposed scheme to benchmark and/or label future NZEXBs. VI) Based on the scalability of the best-practices of the NZEXB ready building, the means to realize a smarter energy system that has exergy-aware relations in each aspect of the value chain to curb CO2 emissions are discussed. This includes a target for such a network at the community level, namely a net-zero exergy community (NZEXC). As a whole, the results of the thesis indicate that the strategic approach as provided by REMM and the NZEXB target of the research work has the potential to steer the speed and direction of societal action to curb CO2 emissions. The thesis concludes with a roadmap that represents a cyclical series of actions that may be scaled-up at various levels of the built environment in a transition to be in better balance with the Planet.
QC 20111014

The United Kingdom and Mexico have established goals to reduce CO2 emissions. With the publication of the Climate Change act in 2008 Britain acknowledges that is technologically ready to implement changes to bring important reductions of CO2 emissions. Mexico included Climate Change abatement in its 2007 development program. UK aims to achieve a reduction of 80% and Mexico a reduction of 50% in their CO2 emissions by the year 2050. To achieve these reductions both countries face the challenge of improving activities such as better use of fuels, for example natural gas for energy production or diesel used in road freight transport vehicles. Freight transport currently accounts 25% of global carbon emissions; with road freight as the fastest growing sector for both countries. The use of biofuels or clean energy powered vehicles is far from a 100% implementation in the fleet. Because of this improving the fuel efficiency in the current operation signifies an opportunity to reduce emissions. The United Kingdom is ahead in legislation through taxation, market incentives and research to encourage reductions from freight transport. Mexico is in its way to the creation of a Climate Change Law. This dissertation aims to determine which lessons Mexico can learn from the United Kingdom in its improvement of freight transport sector in two levels. The Macro level looks at legislation and private sector initiatives, and the Micro level simulating 11 scenarios using real data from operation of a food manufacturer provided by the StarFish Project. The scenarios simulate the implementation of a series of best practice recommendations to reduce emissions and improve operation. The results evidence that at a Macro level Mexico can implement legislation mechanisms to stimulate the reduction of CO2 emissions in the transport sector. At a Micro level the simulations show that even for developed countries like the United Kingdom there is a big potential to reduce carbon emissions from the freight transport sector. The outcome of the dissertation is that learn from experiences from other countries applies not only for Mexico and other developing countries but for every country aiming to improve the reduction of CO2 emissions.

Responsible for one in eight tonnes of national CO₂ emissions, the passenger car sector is pivotal to delivering on UK climate change commitments to avoiding warming of more than 2°C. This thesis provides a clear and quantitative framing of emissions reduction at the sectoral level, by disaggregating global cumulative emissions budgets and pathways associated with a range of probabilities of exceeding 2°C. The relatively low level of abatement currently planned for the UK car sector, it is argued, needs to be significantly increased for the following reasons: (i) a scientific basis in cumulative emissions for sectoral mitigation makes carbon budgets, rather than end point targets (e.g. 2050), of the first importance; (ii) the currently high probability (63%) of exceeding 2°C underpinning the current UK carbon budgets is inconsistent with the UK government’s commitment to avoiding ‘dangerous climate change’; (iii) short-term emissions growth in industrialising countries considerably reduces remaining emissions space for industrialised countries; (iv) very limited scope exists for any large sector to cut emissions by less than the national mean rate of decarbonisation at higher rates of mitigation (around 10% p.a. by the 2020s). The consequences for emissions space in other sectors if international aviation and shipping mitigate less than the mean are quantified. For UK car sector emissions to remain consistent with a low probability of exceeding 2°C while observing these limitations, this analysis finds that planned sectoral mitigation over the coming decade needs to be increased fourfold. Means to address this expected abatement shortfall using readily available technology are investigated using a fleet emissions model to compare the effect on cumulative emissions of changes in a range of fleet parameters (including mean new car bulk emissions factors, vehicle age-proportionate annual distance travelled, and rates of fleet growth and turnover). Pushing existing car technology to the limit of expected short term efficiency gains is found to be insufficient to deliver a pathway with better than 56% probability of exceeding 2°C. Without reduction in aggregate demand for vehicle kilometres in the short term, lower probabilities of 2°C are placed beyond reach. The possibility of rapid step changes in levels of per capita car use is explored in qualitative interviews using narrative storyline scenarios. A range of coercive and voluntary interventions is considered in relation to their potential to overcome the structural and behavioural constraints to rapid transformation of personal travel.

Les effets observés du changement climatique sur les dernières décennies mettent en exergue le besoin et l’urgence de mobiliser suffisamment de ressources pour le ralentir et en atténuer les effets. Dans le cas des pays en développement, d’aucuns suggèrent que l’aide au développement aurait un rôle non des moindres à jouer dans cette lutte. Cependant, encore faudrait-il que les ambitions politiques des décideurs ne soient pas en compétition avec celles environnementales. Cette thèse examine les liens existants entre l’aide au développement, les cycles politiques et la dégradation de l’environnement, à travers trois chapitres empiriques. Le chapitre 2 étudie le lien entre l’aide et l’atténuation des émissions de CO2 dans 112 pays en développement. Il montre que l’effet de l’aide dépend du type de donneur, l’aide multilatérale étant plus susceptible de réduire la pollution que l’aide bilatérale pour laquelle il n’y a pas d’effet. Cependant, une aide bilatérale spécifiquement ciblée sur la protection de l’environnement contribue à réduire le niveau de pollution. Cet impact est toutefois non linéaire, un effet de réduction de la pollution n’étant observé que pour des montants importants d’aide bilatérale environnementale. Le chapitre 3 étudie les facteurs associés à l’allocation de l’aide bilatérale environnementale entre les pays bénéficiaires, sur la période 1990-2013. L’objectif est d’évaluer si l’aide bilatérale environnementale est motivée par des facteurs non environnementaux tels que les intérêts économiques et politiques des donneurs. Trois types de variables susceptibles d’influencer l’allocation de l’aide environnementale sont examinés : les besoins et les mérites environnementaux et non environnementaux des pays bénéficiaires, ainsi que les intérêts économiques et politiques des donneurs. Les variables relatives aux besoins et aux mérites environnementaux comprennent la vulnérabilité aux événements climatiques extrêmes et la rigueur de la politique environnementale. Les résultats des régressions montrent que si la vulnérabilité au changement climatique semble être un déterminant clé de l’aide environnementale, son allocation est peu ou pas liée aux efforts d’atténuation du changement climatique des bénéficiaires. Il trouve également peu d’évidence empirique sur une quelconque association entre les variables d’intérêt des donneurs et l’aide environnementale, en moyenne. Cependant, une analyse désagrégée révèle d’importantes hétérogénéités dans ces relations, et révèle ainsi que certains donneurs sont plus sensibles aux variables environnementales, tandis que d’autres semblent plutôt se concentrer sur leurs intérêts économiques et politiques. Le chapitre 4 explore l’impact des élections sur la politique environnementale et la dégradation de l’environnement, en utilisant un échantillon de 76 pays démocratiques de 1990 à 2014. Les estimations indiquent que les années électorales sont caractérisées par une augmentation des émissions de CO2, même si cet effet semble s’atténuer sur les années plus récentes. Il révèle également que cet effet n’est présent que dans les démocraties plus anciennes, où les électeurs sont plus avisés et où les dirigeants se livrent à des manipulations budgétaires via la composition des dépenses publiques plutôt que par leur niveau. Une plus grande liberté de la presse et des préférences environnementales élevées de la part des électeurs permettent de réduire l’ampleur de ce cycle
The observed effects of climate change over the last decades highlight the urgency of mobilizing enough resources to slow it down and mitigate its effects. In the case of developing countries, some suggest that development aid has an important role to play. However, the political ambitions of decision-makers should not be in competition with environmental ones. This thesis examines the existing links between foreign aid, political cycles and environmental degradation, through three empirical chapters. Chapter 2 studies the link between foreign aid and CO2 mitigation in 112 developing countries. It shows that the effect of aid depends on the donor, with multilateral aid more likely to reduce pollution than bilateral aid for which there is no effect. Nevertheless, a bilateral aid specifically targeted toward environment contributes to decrease the level of pollution. This later impact is non-linear, a pollution-reducing effect is only observed for important amounts of environmental bilateral aid. Chapter 3 studies the factors associated with environmental bilateral aid to recipient countries over the 1990-2013 period. The objective is to assess whether the environmental bilateral aid is motivated by non-environmental factors such as donors’ economic and political interests. Three kind of variables that might influence environmental aid allocation are examined: the environmental and non-environmental needs and merits of recipient countries, and the economic and political interests of donors. Environmental needs and merits variables include vulnerability to extreme climate events and the stringency of climate policy. The results show that while vulnerability to climate change seems to be a key determinant of environmental aid, its allocation is poorly linked to recipients’ climate mitigation policies. It finds weak evidence of association between donors’ interest variables and environmental aid on average. However, an heterogeneity analysis allows to go deeper into all the relations above, and unveils that some donors are more sensitive to environmental variables, while others rather seem focused on their economic and political interests. Chapter 4 explores how elections impact climate change policy and environmental degradation, using a sample of 76 democratic countries from 1990 to 2014. The findings indicate election years are characterized by an increase in CO2 emissions, even though the effect weakens over the recent years. It also reveals that this effect is present only in established democracies, where incumbents engage in fiscal manipulation through the composition of public spending rather than its level. Higher freedom of the press and high environmental preferences from citizens reduce the size of this “political pollution cycle”

International manufacturing companies are shipping goods worldwide, resulting in interorganizational freight transportation where customers, suppliers, and logistics partners are involved in the transportation processes. This interorganizational nature of freight transport emissions has made them difficult to address, as they can be seen as not being connected to only one single company’s decisions. With the relevancy, consciousness, and interest of going greener being on the rise on a global level, many studies have made a call for a wider perspective on how manufacturing companies can work with reducing Carbon Dioxide (CO2) emissions from transport related to their business. This thesis addresses that call, and the research purpose of this thesis is to explore how a manufacturing company can achieve continuous and controlled reduction of CO2 emissions from freight transport. This study develops a framework in support of decarbonizing freight transport at a manufacturing company, through the adapting of Green Supply Chain Management (GSCM) activities, enabled by Strategy and Management Control Systems (MCSs). In sum, it is explored how a manufacturing company can adapt GSCM activities for decarbonization of freight transport as part of a decarbonization strategy, that is implemented and sustained within the company through MCSs. This master thesis studies the case company Rosemount Tank Radar AB, a Sweden-based manufacturer of measurement instrumentation with high levels of export. To find the relevant strategy and management control concepts and theories, a literature study was first conducted. Based on this literature study, a case study of the company was then performed. Following the case study, case findings were analyzed and related to the concepts and theories found in the literature study, leading to the final framework. The framework constitutes the overall conclusion, and a mapping of the analysis on how manufacturing companies can reduce their CO2 emissions from freight transport through the approach based on GSCM, decarbonization strategy, and MCSs. The framework gathers identified decarbonization strategy scopes for greener transports found within the research field of GSCM and the case study. These decarbonization strategy scopes are then set in relation to the identified strategy and control management concepts and tools, that support efficient and tangible implementation of the decarbonization strategy. On a practical level, the framework developed in this thesis is suggested to bring a foundation for discussions among supply chain managers at manufacturing companies that are looking to define or redefine their decarbonization strategy in order make their freight transport greener. As the case study findings of this master thesis also proposes, greener supply chain transport practices can lead to cost savings and better customer experiences, in addition to reducing CO2 emissions.

L'objectif de notre thèse vise à évaluer les résultats engrangés par les marchés du carbone. Afin de pouvoir explorer différents aspects des marchés du carbone à un niveau mondial et en raison de la diversité des instruments qui se cachent derrière ce vocable, nous avons choisi de réaliser une thèse par article. Sur base de nos analyses empiriques nous avons pu vérifier dans quelle mesure les avantages et les limites théoriques des marchés du carbone se sont réalisés en pratique.

Une hypothèse forte des marchés du carbone dotés d’un système de plafonnement est qu’ils permettraient de garantir le respect des objectifs climatiques. Cette hypothèse ne s’est pas révélée exacte. En générant plus d’un milliard de crédits, dont un nombre important de crédits issus de projets, et en ne parvenant pas à empêcher des défections, le système mis en place par le Protocole de Kyoto n’est pas parvenu à garantir le plafonnement des émissions dans les pays développés. Il en va de même pour les systèmes liés à Kyoto comme le système communautaire d'échange de quotas d'émissions (SCEQE).

Dans la plupart des configurations des règles ad hoc et peu transparentes ont nui à l’objectif environnemental. La comptabilité commune de différents gaz à effet de serre, malgré des incertitudes importantes sur les pouvoirs de réchauffement globaux a également été néfaste à l'intégrité du système.

Le lien à des mécanismes de projets trouvant leur légitimité dans une preuve de l’additionnalité souvent floue demeure problématique. Notre analyse a ainsi mis en avant la problématique de l'enregistrement de projets hydrauliques dont la décision de construction est antérieure aux marchés du carbone.

En théorie, le mécanisme d’échange a pour conséquence que les acteurs confrontés à des coûts de réduction faibles soient encouragés à réduire leurs émissions. Dans la pratique, notre analyse montre que peu d’acteurs connaissent leur coût de réduction marginal, empêchant dès lors la concrétisation de cet idéal d’une réduction au moindre coût. Nous avons aussi mis en avant le fait qu’un prix identique par tonne de CO2 réduite n’est pas adapté au soutien de technologies nouvelles, souvent plus onéreuses au début de leur cycle de développement.

Finalement, un des principaux mérites des marchés du carbone a peut-être été leur acceptabilité auprès des décideurs politiques et économiques. Il est manifeste que les marchés permettent d'internaliser le carbone à un niveau international sans passer par une difficile harmonisation des politiques fiscales. C'est clairement une des raisons de leur adoption rapide et dans de nombreux pays.

Les marchés du carbone ont aussi joué un rôle important en matière de sensibilisation aux changements climatiques. Ils ont permis de faire progresser la comptabilité carbone et la compréhension des technologies sobres en carbone.

L’effondrement récent du prix du carbone montre que ce nouvel instrument qui, en théorie, est efficace pour atteindre un objectif de réduction prédéfini, ne permet pas, dans la pratique, par manque d’ambition ou en raison d’erreurs dans la conception, de financer la transition vers une nouvelle économie sobre en carbone. Il apparaît dès lors nécessaire de réformer cet instrument mais aussi de développer progressivement des alternatives afin de ne pas uniquement faire reposer la réussite de l’atteinte des objectifs climatiques sur les seuls marchés du carbone et ainsi augmenter la résilience des politiques climatiques aux aléas de marchés financiers, par ailleurs eux-mêmes soumis à de nombreux tourments depuis 2008.

Doctorat en Sciences
info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

Mobility has proved to be a major challenge for human development, especially in urban centers worldwide, where more displacement is required, since fossil fuels consumption is increasing as well as greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, causing air quality degradation and global warming. The predicted population increase in cities tends to increase the demand for mobility and to further exacerbate those impacts. Therefore, sustainable transport is key for the future of mobility, and electric vehicle (EV) has emerged as a recognized sustainable option. However, there are many electric vehicle barriers diffusion. This research aims to contribute to the diffusion of EV in Brazil, by assessing: 1) whether EV is a more sustainable technology when compared with ethanol vehicle; 2) the impacts of the expansion of electric mobility on CO2 emissions, in Sao Paulo; 3) how to overcome the barriers for the charging infrastructure deployment at the municipality level, in Sao Paulo, Rio de Janeiro and Belo Horizonte; and 4) key challenges and opportunities from the mass adoption of EV in Brazil. A plethora of different methods were used, including scenario analysis, multi-criteria decision methods, geographic information systems and SWOT analysis. Main results point to EV as the best technology to mitigate passenger transport related CO2 emissions in Brazil, due to its low carbon footprint. In Sao Paulo, this option could reduce around 11 MtCO2 by 2030 and save 6,200 billion USD in energy with the replacement of 20 percent of gasoline cars with EV. To meet 1 percent of EV's market share, Sao Paulo, Rio de Janeiro and Belo Horizonte together will need around 6,500 charging stations concentrated in around 1/3 of their territories (level 2). Brazil may likely have up to 10 percent of EV penetration by 2030, with the diffusion taking place mostly in southeastern municipality. Ethanol, lack of electric mobility public policy, non-urbanized like subnormal agglomerates, and risk areas, like flood hazard, are major obstacles for EV diffusion in Brazil.

城市化是影響全球碳循環的最重要的由人類活動主導的影響因素之一。本質上，城市碳儲存和碳釋放，無論以人工的（如能源消耗、建築物、廢物等）或自然組成部份（如城市綠色植被，城市土壤等），都與城市緊密相關。在城市碳循環中，無論人工或自然組成部份都是同等重要，因為在研究中必須同時考慮兩者的貢獻。然而，已有的研究過於片面，且大多數集中于城市能源利用和碳排放方面。該研究試圖將城市系統作為一個整體，定量地探討城市人工及自然組成部份對二氧化碳排放量的貢獻。
首先，我們提出一個基於過程的“城市土地的定義，以表述城市土地動態變化的本質，并運用閾值方法成功提取所定義的“城市土地。我們運用多源的遙感數據，包括夜晚燈光影像，LandSat影像及Modis影像，分析城市化過程及相應的土地利用/覆蓋變化。總體而言，在過去25年間，中國城市用地擴張了3.8倍，農田和林地是城市土地擴張的主要來源。
其次，以經過校準的夜晚燈光數據作為指示變量，我們開發了一個自上而下的分解模型來估算城市尺度下化石燃料消耗導致的二氧化碳排放。在中國快速城市化的背景下，城市二氧化碳排放量占全國總排放量的比例大幅增加。與農村地區相比，由於較高的收入水平，生活方式的改變及更便利地獲得電力能源，中國城市的人均排放量遠高於全國平均量。這與發達國家的情景截然相反。另外，由於當地經濟規模和結構的影響，東部地區的人均碳排放量低於西部地區。結果還表明，快速增長的經濟和城市化是二氧化碳排放量增加的主要驅動力，且能源效率在2000年之後反而呈現增長趋势，也是促進二氧化碳排放量增加的主要原因。如果國家宣佈并嚴格執行更嚴格的可持續發展目標，則經濟結構及能源結構調整將在減碳方面發揮作用。
第三，本研究還根據儲存-變化方法，估算了城市系統的自然組成部份，也就是城市植被和土壤的碳儲存和釋放。結果表明，儲存於城市植被和土壤中碳量與城市化石燃料排放的碳量相當，且城市土壤是主要的碳庫，儲存了約93%的碳。隨著城市不斷擴張，由於大量自然植被被破壞，城市植被變成碳源并向大氣釋放碳；而城市土壤則變成碳庫，吸收了大氣中部份的二氧化碳。鑒於中國未來持續的城市化過程，該研究結果為城市管理者提供了科學依據，以通過提高城市植被和土壤的碳儲量，吸收部份化石燃料燃燒排放的二氧化碳。
最後，我們還運用格蘭傑檢驗分析小尺度氣候變量對二氧化碳增加的響應。結果表明，在中國城市化較低地區，氣溫與二氧化碳變化存在雙向格蘭傑因果關係；而在快速城市化地區，如東部沿海城市，僅存在氣溫變化導致二氧化碳排放量增加的單向格蘭傑因果關係。該研究首次在城市尺度解釋了氣候對二氧化碳增量的響應關係。總體而言，本論文綜合地探索了中國快速城市化背景下，城市人工及自然組成部份對二氧化碳排放量的共同貢獻。這些研究結果為當地政府建設低碳城市提供了科學依據和決策支持。
Urbanization is undoubtedly one of the most significant anthropogenic forces affecting global carbon cycle. Carbon storage and release through anthropogenic (e.g. energy consumption, building, waste) and natural components (e.g. urban vegetation and soil) are intrinsically coupled in urban areas. Both anthropogenic and natural components are equally important for understanding the carbon cycle in urban areas and have to be considered simultaneously. Present studies however mostly one-sided and primarily focus on anthropogenic emissions. Given the substantial scientific gaps, this study aims to build better knowledge on the contributions of urban areas to the increasing atmosphere CO₂ emissions at an urban scale, considering both anthropogenic and natural components simultaneously.
First, a process-based definition of urban areas is proposed to capture the inherent dynamics of urban areas, and a threshold technique is developed to map the defined urban areas in this study. Multi-sensor remotely sensed data are used to analyze the dynamic urbanization and related land use/cover conversions. Overall, urban areas have increased by 3.8 times over the studied period of 1985-2010. Croplands and forests are the major sources of the growing urban areas.
Second, taking calibrated nighttime light imagery as a proxy variable, we develop a top-down model to estimate fossil fuel CO₂ emissions on the urban scale. Driven by the rapid urbanization in China, the contributions of urban areas to the CO₂ emissions have increased substantially. In contrast to the developed counties, per capita CO₂ emissions in urban China are higher than the national average, due to higher income, change in lifestyle and easy access to electricity, whereas per capita CO₂ emissions in eastern China is lower than that in western China, due to the diverse scale and structure of local economy. Our analysis also reveals that the booming economy and urbanization are major drivers of the increasing fossil fuel CO₂ emissions, while the decoupling effect of energy efficiency reverses in the post-2000 period caused by the booming economy. It is foreseeable that economic reconstruction and energy structure would play a significant impact on carbon reduction if stricter environmental targets are released.
Third, carbon storage and change in natural components of urban areas, in particular, urban vegetation and soils, are also estimated in this study. A stock-change method is applied in this study. This study identifies that the amount of carbon storage in urban areas is comparable to that emitted from fossil fuel burning, and urban soils are the major carbon pools in urban areas. Along with urban expansions, urban vegetation becomes sources of carbon due to loss of biomass, whereas urban soils act as sinks of carbon because increasing urban areas enhance the carbon storage in them. Given the foreseeable urbanization in China, our study has implications for urban managers to enhance carbon storage through urban vegetation and soils, hence offsetting CO₂ emissions from fossil fuel burning.
Finally, a local temperature response to the increasing CO₂ in urban areas is analyzed by local Granger causality test. Bidirectional Granger causality presents between surface air temperature and carbon variables in less urbanized regions of China. In the rapid urbanization areas such as eastern coastal regions, only presents the Granger causality from surface air temperature to the fossil fuel CO₂ emissions. This is the first attempt to offer insights of local temperature variables response to the increasing CO₂ across urban China. Our integrated results are novel in exploring the contributions of expanding urban areas to CO₂ emissions across China, including anthropogenic and natural components of urban areas simultaneously. We believe that our findings have clear significance for local governments who strive for constructing low-carbon cities.
Detailed summary in vernacular field only.
Detailed summary in vernacular field only.
Detailed summary in vernacular field only.
Detailed summary in vernacular field only.
Detailed summary in vernacular field only.
Meng Lina.
Thesis (Ph.D.) Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2013.
Includes bibliographical references (leaves 203-218).
Abstracts also in Chinese.

碩士
東吳大學
經濟學系
85
THe purpose of this study is to simulate the impact of mitigation of CO2 emission on Taiwan''s industry.Fuzzy multiobjective programming and interindustry analysis will also be conduced to evaluate various alternatives for mitigation emission.

The scenario-based modeling approach applies the conceptual background of section 3 for the impact assessment of CCCS. After discussing the persona characteristics, the calculation steps are conducted and its results among the three scenarios are analyzed. In conclusion, recommendations for the CCCS providers as well as an outlook for the future are given. The model calculations reveal a substantial contribution potential of CCCS towards the reduction of CO2 emissions in the EU. Depending on the behavioral change that occurs, the impact potential is assessed to a reduction of -11.6% to -15.2% of annual EU CO2 emissions by 2030.

Australia’s economy is heavily dependent on coal-based energy and greenhouse gas intensive natural resource extraction and processing industries. As part of an international climate change mitigation effort Australia will have to undergo a national transformation to a low emissions society by mid century. Federal and State Governments in Australia, like their counterparts in other major developed economies, have been persuaded that reliance on fossil fuels in stationary energy industries such as electricity generation and minerals processing will be able to continue with the deployment of a value chain of technologies fitted to these installations for capturing carbon dioxide, transporting it to a disposal site, and then injecting it into subsurface geological formations for permanent storage (carbon capture and storage, or CCS). Understanding the likely effectiveness of CCS for reducing greenhouse gas emissions from stationary energy industries is therefore critical to policy formulation for, and management of, Australia’s emissions mitigation effort and national transformation over the decades ahead.
This thesis aims to offer a clearer understanding of the practicalities, limitations and uncertainties surrounding future CCS use in Australia and of the contribution CCS can make to mitigating emissions from the Australian stationary energy sector in the period to 2050. It considers two central questions: Is CCS a realistic option for emissions mitigation in Australia? Are Australian climate policies formulated to facilitate CCS deployment and optimise its potential contribution? The criteria employed in this thesis for answering these questions are restricted to those having an ascertainable causal impact on the timing, pace and ultimate scale of CCS deployment within Australia. The methodology used for the research is grounded in critical approaches and integrated assessment within a holistic, trans-disciplinary paradigm.
This thesis finds that under Australia’s existing climate policy framework it is unrealistic to expect CCS can contribute more than 75 million tonnes of CO2 per annum to emissions mitigation by 2050. Australia does have sufficient potential geological storage resources to expect some environmentally safe CCS infrastructure could be engineered over time, but commencement of large scale build-out is not likely before 2025. When CCS will become a commercial mitigation option in Australia is unpredictable and dependent more on the political economy of climate change than on Australian research, development and demonstration activities.
The thesis also finds that the existing climate policy framework is increasing rather than decreasing the risks to timing and usefulness of CCS even to the level of 75 million tonnes of CO2 per annum by 2050. This thesis concludes that Australian Governments are not developing the institutional capability to oversee a holistic decarbonisation of the stationary energy sector. This capability is required not only to address the risks to CCS deployment but also to prevent market failures that foreclose an optimal contribution from all other potential mitigation technologies. The thesis proposes that an Australian national CCS company be created with responsibility for CCS integration, transport and storage services in order to develop Australian capability rather than that of international corporations.