Letteratura scientifica selezionata sul tema "Civilization, Modern – Forecasting"
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Articoli di riviste sul tema "Civilization, Modern – Forecasting"
1
Nikitenko, Vìtalina, Valentyna Voronkova, Roman Oleksenko, Larysa Filoretova, Liudmyla Lanoviuk e Viktoriia Khvist. "Perspectives of civilizational political development of world regions in the context of current challenges and opportunities". Cuestiones Políticas 41, n. 76 (6 marzo 2023): 274–91. http://dx.doi.org/10.46398/cuestpol.4176.15.
Testo completoAbstract (sommario):
The aim was to investigate the theoretical and practical aspects of civilization in the context of the challenges of modern global development, to analyze a new model of civilization, within which the basic problems of civilization and a solution to the consequences of development proposed by the civilizational process are outlined. The theme is the development of civilization of the world regions and the formation of a new strategy of the NATO Alliance. The methodology consists in the use of the synergetic method, agile methodology, political modeling, forecasting, which help to see the challenges and opportunities of the global development of modern civilization in a new way. As a result, a distinction was made between the concepts of civilization as a sociocultural phenomenon and culture as a measure of human development, because civilization is a set of political conditions that determines the development of a person and a society. The analysis of the problems of civilizational development of the world regions in the context of challenges and opportunities, the objective processes of modern development and the formation of a new concept of civilizational protection of the international society was carried out.
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Dmytrenko, Mykola. "Modern Civilizational Challenges in the Context of the World Reorganization Concepts". Political Studies, n. 2 (2021): 150–69. http://dx.doi.org/10.53317/2786-4774-2021-2-8.
Testo completoAbstract (sommario):
The article deals with global forecasting of social development, as well as with the conceptions and possible scenarios for holistic development of mankind. It is justified that contemporary concepts of the world reorganization should consider different dynamics of the country’s civilizational development, its values and traditional culture. The article emphasizes that outlines of processes, oriented towards the formation of a new world order, began to emerge in the 70s of the last century. It is manifested that in modern society, forecasting the future is an integral part of substantiating worldview interpretations of modern phenomena and processes, reflecting optimistic and pessimistic future scenarios, ideals and value perspectives. It is proved that main ideologists and participants in these processes were the Club of Rome, later the Bilderberg Club, the Trilateral Commission, think tanks such as the RAND Corporation, the Santa Fe Institute and others. General principles developed by them were specified in the work of the IMF, the World Bank, WTO, etc. It is defined that since the 1990s, a philosophical-historical and socio-political orientation of a global nature has become a characteristic feature of prognostic concepts. The idea of the „end of history” by F. Fukuyama that validates the post-communist triumph of the liberal-democratic ideas and the onset of historical calm because of liberal democracy victory throughout the geopolitical space. The other one is the „clash of civilizations” idea by S. Huntington, claiming that after the collapse of bipolar world the mankind would face the sharpening of contradictions and the clash of civilizations consolidated around traditional religions. The author concluded that hybrid war, at the epicenter of which Ukraine has been for more than seven years, is not just a local situation, but an element of a new world order that can be defined as a hybrid world order. It is based on a proxy politics technology using information technologies for the collective conscious and collective subconscious systemic manipulations to change person’s or group’s behavior through stimulus, coercion, or conviction. This involves mainly political, economic, informational, institutional, demographic, technical, social, and other resources, rather than military ones. Key words: futurology, global development, civilization, clash of civilizations, information wars, world reorganization, international security, national security.
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Sazhienko, E. V. "Forecasting ideas of Akop Nazaretyan: two years later". E-Journal of Dubna State University. A series "Science of man and society -, n. 4 (dicembre 2020): 77–82. http://dx.doi.org/10.37005/2687-0231-2020-0-12-77-82.
Testo completoAbstract (sommario):
The article examines some of the Akop Nazaretyan’s ideas, which he outlined in the book «Global Forecasting in the Light of Big History and Synergetics». The relevance of his ideas is analyzed taking into account all the changes that have occurred in the global system over the last two years. Social realities have changed a lot in this short time, but many events look logical within the model, which wascreated by Akop Nazaretyan. In addition, we examined the issues of interaction and competition between states, the place and role of Russia in the modern world, the necessity to create a global ideology, the highest value of which will be the preservationof global civilization.
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Alexander S., Madzharov. "N. Y. Danilevsky and O. Spengler on “Slavic” and “Romano-Germanic” Cultural-Historical Types and Prospects of Their Interaction (Comparison of the Concept and Method)". Humanitarian Vector 17, n. 3 (ottobre 2022): 59–68. http://dx.doi.org/10.21209/1996-7853-2022-17-3-59-68.
Testo completoAbstract (sommario):
Thinkers N. Y. Danilevsky and O. Spengler brought together a civilization approach to world history. The relevance of the works of these authors is evidenced by their consonance with the modern historical process. The interrelation of ideas and the relative reliability of the predictions made by the theorists predetermined the purpose of the work: comparison of the concepts of “Slavic” and “Romano-Germanic” cultural and historical types, the study of the applied methodology of research by Danilevsky and Spengler, and the application of the comparative historical method in this work. Danilevsky created a typological direction in historical research, moved away from the interpretation of international relations as a situational phenomenon, realized the importance of historical forecasting. He came to the conclusion that Russia and Europe belong to different cultural and historical types, there are, in modern terms, mental contradictions between them, which in the future could give rise to clashes between civilizations. The studies of the geopolitician convinced him that Europe considered, and will continue to consider our fatherland, a “foreign” and even a “hostile” world. Fifty years after Danilevsky, Spengler spoke about the future of Western civilization. The philosopher’s doctrine developed in the direction laid down by the Russian geopolitician. The philosopher revealed the palette of the Faustian soul “from the inside”, and confirmed the assumptions and fears of Danilevsky. “Faustian culture” as Spengler concluded, “has always been aimed at “spreading”. All thinkers and leaders from Eckhart to Napoleon wanted to “conquer the world”. The coming twentieth century was seen by the philosopher as the era of the “war of inheritance”, in which India, China, South Africa, and Russia would enter. In the list of “mobilized states”, the thinker saw his fatherland in the first place. “Unbearable tension”, he testified, pushes Europe to the true Faustian path ‒ the “primal politics of all living things” ‒ war. The conducted historiographical analysis showed that the morphological attitude of the classics of civilization analysis changed the research paradigm, increased the possibilities of theoretical understanding of the problem, opened up prospects for comparative study of cultures, obtaining the necessary geopolitical forecast today.
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Tkalych, Maxym, Oksana Safonchyk e Yuliia Tolmachevska. "Private Law and Human Rights". DIXI 22, n. 2 (13 luglio 2020): 1–12. http://dx.doi.org/10.16925/2357-5891.2020.02.04.
Testo completoAbstract (sommario):
Point of view: One of the basic concepts that underlies law as a phenomenon, as well as private law as one of the two areas of law, is the concept of natural law. This concept presupposes that rights and freedoms are an inalienable good of every person, regardless of the will of any external institutions. The ideas of natural law have been expressed in the concept of private law (the fundamental principles of private law are such principles as justice, good faith, reasonableness, dispositiveness, legal certainty, inadmissibility of interference in private affairs, inviolability of property rights, and freedom of contract).
Object: The subject of the study is the problems of reforming of private law in modern conditions. The object of research is the social relations that arise in the plane of «person-person» and «state-person» in modern transformation processes.
Methodology: The research methodology is formed by methods of analysis, synthesis, and modeling. Additionally, logical-legal, comparative-legal forecasting methods are used. The authors of the article tried to draw a parallel between the concepts of natural law, Roman law and private law.
Results and discussion: An analysis of these concepts revealed that each of them is an integral part of the concept of modern Western civilization. At the same time, in modern conditions of pandemic, deglobalization, regionalization, collapse of human rights and the very concept of Western civilization, which is based on the ideas of humanism, liberalism, absolute human rights, inviolability of property rights and respect for privacy, are under threat.
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Sidorina, A. V. "Rome club and social transformations of the second half of the XX and the beginning of the XXI century". Moscow State University Bulletin. Series 18. Sociology and Political Science 24, n. 4 (12 gennaio 2019): 188–205. http://dx.doi.org/10.24290/1029-3736-2018-24-4-188-205.
Testo completoAbstract (sommario):
The article analyzes the main prerequisites for the emergence and further development of the Сlub of Rome. The second half of the XX century is seen as a period of qualitative transformation of all aspects of social life. The emergence of the Сlub of Rome in this period is seen as a response to the ongoing transformation processes. Globalization and the scientific and technological revolution are becoming the basic prerequisites for the formation of global problems of human civilization. Global problems are being analyzed at the international community level. The first reports of the Club of Rome analyzed the global problems of our time in the context of “society — nature” with the using computer modeling methods. If the first reports were characterized only by an assessment of the current state of civilization and forecasting its further development (with an emphasis, as a rule, on pessimistic aspects), then the subsequent works of the members of the Club of Rome is characterized by an attempt to build a model out of the existing crisis and the further sustainable development of civilization. Th e second group of reports of the Сlub develops in the framework of the analysis of interaction in the system “society — individual”. This is partly due to the fact that social problems are becoming more acute, primarily the problem of confrontation between the “rich North and the poor South”. Within the framework of these works, the idea that modern global problems are not only environmental and economic problems, they are problems of political and institutional order, they are demographic, cultural, ideological, they are problems of the crisis of the basic value structures of modern civilization is gaining popularity. The authors of the reports lead us to the need to build a new ideological paradigm, which will be the basis of a new global ethics. The creation of a new ethics of international cooperation is considered as a basic and key condition for overcoming the existing crisis.
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Grebnev, Ya V., e A. K. Moskalev. "Modeling the risk of territories flooding by flood waters on the Kan River". IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science 839, n. 3 (1 settembre 2021): 032045. http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/839/3/032045.
Testo completoAbstract (sommario):
Abstract Throughout the existence of human civilization, flooding of territories as a result of the influence of flood and ground waters has threatened normal life. One of the ways to prevent negative impact of floods is the use of mathematical modeling methods using modern software. The paper presents the results of solving the problem of modeling the dynamics of flood waters within the boundaries of the settlement of Kansk and making a forecast of possible flooding for 2021. To calculate flooding zones of territories within the boundaries of Kansk by spring waters, the TUFLOW program was used in the Surface-water Modeling System modeling environment, as well as neural network forecasting using the NeuroPro software product and visualization of forecasting results in the AIMS RSChS-2030 software environment. Simulation of the passage of floods within the boundaries of Kansk was carried out under the condition that the timing of the onset of the maximum flow on the Kan River and its tributaries coincide. The simulation results made it possible to predict local flooding of the settlement during the flood of 2021 and take preventive measures to reduce the risk of flooding.
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Platonova, Yulia. "INNOVATIVE FOCUS OF MODERN CONTENT OF EDUCATION OF SOCIAL SPHERE SPECIALISTS IN THE CONDITIONS OF DIGITAL CIVILIZATION". Man and Education, n. 2 (75) (2023): 170. http://dx.doi.org/10.54884/s181570410026441-0.
Testo completoAbstract (sommario):
Digital civilization, affecting all aspects of life, is actively entering the social sphere, providing a higher level of social activity. In this regard, the use of digital technologies is being updated, contributing to a change in the ways in which knowledge, skills, and professional competencies are created, formed and transferred. The digitalization of the education system and the creation of a digital space of the university is associated with a new vector of Russia's development. In this vein, the system of personnel training is being improved in order to develop the social basis of the city, its social cluster, as well as for the most important function of the welfare state - supporting social "risk groups" in need of additional social protection. The digitalization of education gives an additional impetus to self-organization initiatives, promotes the development of modeling and forecasting. When selecting the content of education, the structural units of the content are ordered, forming the integrity and completeness of the module. Digitalization develops not only vertical, but also horizontal connections of the educational environment of the institution, which is especially important for social specialists, in whose practice the use of an interdepartmental approach is one of the requirements of professional activity in working with “risk groups”. The most pressing problems that require innovative consideration in the preparation of future specialists are the following: organization of social services for elderly citizens, people with disabilities, families with children and in need; assistance in adaptation and socialization of people who need social support in the process of rehabilitation, adaptation, education, vocational training and employment.
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Yakovleva, I. V., e T. S. Kosenko. "Socio-philosophical cognition of the phenomenon of uncertainty and forecasting in education". Professional education in the modern world 11, n. 4 (26 febbraio 2022): 19–27. http://dx.doi.org/10.20913/2618-7515-2021-4-3.
Testo completoAbstract (sommario):
The principle of uncertainty operates in the perspective of discussing the modern Russian education modernization, it arises in the circumstances of unclear public priorities, goals, values. At the educational practice viewpoint, the holistic methodology absence for the philosophical understanding of certainty and uncertainty of ontological, epistemological, epistemological, axiological research programs, is reflected in both satisfying human cognitive needs and forecasting in education. Developing a methodological formalization of concepts «certainty», «uncertainty», «ontological uncertainty» (non-articulation of properties and behavior of the system or its individual element), «epistemological uncertainty» (in techniques of cognition, forming a worldview, implementing innovations, as well as interpreting the quality of education from the standpoint market laws), «epistemological uncertainty» (parametric, random, ambiguous and uncertainty of interaction) are associated with a critical discussion of the essential signs of uncertainty in society and education, which are becoming the research subject of the education philosophy. A survey of philosophers’ opinions regarding the education models of the future pointed to the critically-oriented nature of already existing prototypes and the development of their scenarios. The need to determine the theoretical status of «uncertainty in education» is closely related to understanding a person's place in the world, agreeing in the public consciousness of a consistent understanding of the axiological categories: «value of education» and «education as a value» and their new interpretation based on the articulation of «axiological certainty» as new ecosystems of values and principles of their functioning in the education of the future. Understanding the changes in the ontological, epistemological and axiological foundations of Russian education is private explications of socio-philosophical subjectivism to a certain extent. Modern concepts discussing the axiological reversal in educational practices concentrate around the problem of axiological certainty, namely: the preservation of civilization and the hierarchical nature of educational goals and values as an important component of effective education management.
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Gavrilov, Evgeniy. "Scenarios of State Development in the XXI Century". Bulletin of Kemerovo State University. Series: Humanities and Social Sciences 2023, n. 1 (27 gennaio 2023): 37–45. http://dx.doi.org/10.21603/2542-1840-2023-7-1-37-45.
Testo completoAbstract (sommario):
Scientific forecasting and long-term planning of social development cannot ignore such a key structural component of modern society as the state. This article describes the prospects for the development of the state in the XXI century, the main factors of state transformation, and the most common interpretations of their consequences. The list of factors includes globalization, scientific and technological progress, competing multinational companies, and various supranational structures. The research revealed four scenarios. (1) The state gives place to new management systems. (2) The main political centers remain either as executive units of supranational structures, or as relatively independent macro-formations. (3) National states degenerate into new political forms under the influence of modern social factors. (4) New autarkies or neo-autarkies appear on the territories of contemporary states. Most forecasters foretell those states are bound to lose their independence of internal and foreign policy on a planetary scale. Some of them see a process of transition to new non-state models of society management. Others declare that states will grow in strength in the historical perspective, reaching the form of autarky, and on stronger grounds than ever before. The future of the state in this century depends not on political relations, but on the transformation of personality, values, and connections. The future of the state as an independent subject of domestic or foreign policy depends on its ability to respond to the challenges of modern civilization.
Tesi sul tema "Civilization, Modern – Forecasting"
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Semmens, Angela. "Envisioning futures : a critique of `super' male futurology : from the optical to the activisionary". Thesis, 1993. https://eprints.utas.edu.au/21535/7/whole_SemmensAngela1994_thesis.pdf.
Testo completoAbstract (sommario):
This thesis is an exploratory inquiry into 'visions of a future' and provides a critical assessment of the subtextual thematic constellations of 'visions' which prevail in modern western societies. It is contended that, given our contemporary socioecological crisis, predominant western visions in their present supermale-progress form, irrespective of their 'post'-industrial or 'new' designations, are no longer adequate to guarantee positive social transformations. In contradistinction to predominant visions, life affirming visions such as 'activisionary-ecosophic' visions promise novel ways of living and being with all life, and provide the hallmark of hope and 'breakthrough' for our contemporary age. Only these visions are inherently socio-transfromative, since their political ecology is a life affirming one.
Libri sul tema "Civilization, Modern – Forecasting"
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V, I͡Akovet͡s I͡U. At the sources of a new civilization. Moscow: International Kondratieff Foundation, 1993.
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Huyghe, François-Bernard. Les experts, ou, L'art de se tromper: De Jules Verne à Bill Gates. [Paris]: Plon, 1996.
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Ravik, Slavomír. Totální krize, a prostor pro naději? Praha: Pražská imaginace, 1992.
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Pajestka, Józef. Rzecz o świecie i polskich sprawach. Warszawa: Oficyna Nauk., 1993.
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Katz, Benjamin. A paradigm for a new civilization: 2050-3000 AC. Saratoga, CA: Millennial Mind Publishing, 2013.
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Huyghe, François-Bernard. Mirai yosoku no gensō. Tōkyō: Sangyō Tosho, 1997.
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Safronova, V. Obshchestvo budushchego: Gorizonty predskazuemosti. Moskva: Ėkon-inform, 2005.
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I͡Asi͡ukov, Mikhail Ignatʹevich. Vesy Nemezidy. Moskva: "Myslʹ", 1990.
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V, I͡Akovet͡s I͡U. U istokov novoĭ t͡sivilizat͡sii. Moskva: Izd-vo "Delo", 1993.
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Timofeevich, Timofeev Timur, I︠A︡kovet︠s︡ I︠U︡ V e Pitirim Sorokin-Nikolai Kondratieff International Institute., a cura di. Mir t︠s︡ivilizat︠s︡iĭ: Sovremennostʹ i budushchee. Moskva: Mezhdunarodnyĭ institut Pitirima Sorokina - Nikolai︠a︡ Kondatʹeva, 2008.
Cerca il testo completoCapitoli di libri sul tema "Civilization, Modern – Forecasting"
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Bhagawati, Mayuri, Chayan Dhar, Dipan Sarma, Manna Das e Badal Kumar Datta. "Integration of artificial intelligence toward better agricultural sustainability". In A Basic Handbook of Science, Technology and Innovation for Inclusive Development [Volume: 1], 71–85. International Academic Publishing House (IAPH), 2024. http://dx.doi.org/10.52756/bhstiid.2024.e01.005.
Testo completoAbstract (sommario):
The development and even survival of human civilization is highly dependent on agriculture. Modern human society, with a vast population, is continuously pressurizing agricultural techniques to modify themselves in a way that satisfies the hunger of this rapidly growing population. To ensure food security, several methods and chemical inputs have been applied in the field of farming which disturb their average ecological balance, reduce the nutrient content in the food, affect the average fertility of the soil, cause overexploitation of the natural resources, and even responsible for various fatal health issues in humans. Thus, an alternative resolution is needed, which is Artificial Intelligence. Integration of AI has proved to be a boon for the present-day farmers. AI eases farming practices by monitoring crop health, predicting pests, diseases, drought, weather forecasting, harvesting, categorizing harvested ones, aiding farmers in making necessary decisions regarding selling, etc. They also facilitate sustainability as early prediction of weeds, pests, and diseases would directly reduce the content of chemical inputs in the field; this, in turn, supports soil health and also checks overexploitation of groundwater while irrigating the croplands. Except for the doubt and misconceptions of the farmers about the potency of these AI-based tools in fulfilling their needs and the high cost, AI as a whole is a complete solution to the modern farming society for benefiting themselves and fulfilling the market demand without disturbing our ecosystem.
Atti di convegni sul tema "Civilization, Modern – Forecasting"
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Ramsina, Snezhana. "Integration of Public and Private Aspects in Business Models 4.0 of the Tourism Market". In The Public/Private in Modern Civilization, the 22nd Russian Scientific-Practical Conference (with international participation) (Yekaterinburg, April 16-17, 2020). Liberal Arts University – University for Humanities, Yekaterinburg, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.35853/ufh-public/private-2020-58.
Testo completoAbstract (sommario):
The current digital opportunities that have spawned the upgrade of the business versions of tourism and hospitality have been actualised due to the hard-to-predict pandemic nature of the COVID-19 coronavirus threat and travel bans. In Business Model 4.0. the usual forms of the relationship between the public (institutional) and the private, individual in tourism and hospitality are transformed. Research objective: to characterise the integration capabilities of automated (AI-based) travel industry business processes that personalise the tourism offers to the needs and preferences of travel lers and guests. The value-based marketing 4.0 approach, supplemented by structural, network and functional approaches to the analysis of the structure, multi-level, dynamics of commercial opportunities, consumer value of business models of organisation and the implementation of tourism products, allowed the integration possibilities of Internet services in satisfying individualised consumer demands to be satisfied. Soft culture blurs the boundaries between the public and the personal, making actors’ informational behaviour transparent, transforming existing business strategies, and giving rise to ‘mass individuality’ in tourism and hospitality. The forms of correlation between the public (group, communal) and the private, individual in the practice of tourist services at all stages of a tourist trip or guest visits to HoReCa enterprises change under the influence of BigData technologies regarding operational processes; modelling and forecasting strategies; horizontal and vertical integration. The marketplace is won by those who practise personalisation, customisation and marketing authenticity of the market offer distributed on the P2P network. The basis of a stable competitive advantage of a company able to create a unique customer value in the tourism and hospitality market is represented by predictive or prognostic analytics of big data and smart technologies.
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Shmatov, Georgy. "The Simulation of Efficiency Parameters of Periodical Advertising". In The Public/Private in Modern Civilization, the 22nd Russian Scientific-Practical Conference (with international participation) (Yekaterinburg, April 16-17, 2020). Liberal Arts University – University for Humanities, Yekaterinburg, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.35853/ufh-public/private-2020-55.
Testo completoAbstract (sommario):
With periodic advertisements, the effective scope changes in time as follows: increasing during the flight, and decreasing during a gap in advertising. This gives rise to the following tasks: research into the dependence of the effective scope of the audience on periodic advertisement placement parameters, i.e. flight duration, advertisement gap duration, memory lag; research into the dependence of flight scope on the quantity of intra-flight periods of ad placements, periodic advertisement budget optimisation. These goals can be achieved by media planning mathematical theory methods developed in the author’s earlier research works. This paper describes methods for analysing some indicators of periodic advertising effectiveness developed within the framework of a mathematical media planning theory, in particular the methodology for managing the level of communicative effectiveness of periodic advertising through changes in the duration of advertisement gap, memory lag, the quantity of intra-flight placements. The developed theory enables the analysis and forecast of the maximum, minimum and average audience scopes of periodic advertising depending on parameters of advertising impact intensity, flight duration, and advertisement gap. With the help of the developed methodologies, it is possible to manage the level of communicative effectiveness of periodicals by finding the optimum ratio of the above mentioned parameters. In addition, these techniques make it possible to optimise the budget for periodic advertising. In particular, the research work proposes a technique of quantitative optimisation of periodic advertisement placement parameters; exemplifying the technique of forecasting the value of the effective scope of a flight. The dependencies of the size of the audience coverage on the number of intra-flight periods are obtained. It has been defined that memory lag parameters limit the maximum attainable flight reach. It has been shown that the optimal advertisement budget at a chosen level of advertising impact intensity and at a preset memory lag depends on the ratio between the flight duration and advertisement gap.