Tesi sul tema "Circulation – Évaluation du risque"
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Oliva, Justine. "Eco-épidémiologie du virus influenza D : évaluation du spectre d'hôtes et du risque d'émergence". Thesis, Toulouse 3, 2019. http://www.theses.fr/2019TOU30171.
Recently, a novel genus was identified within the Orthomyxoviridae family and named thereafter Influenza D virus (IDV). So far, IDV has been detected on differents continents and differents species are susceptible to the virus. Bovine are considered as a main host for IDV. The PhD was divided in two parts: (i) assessment of the host ranges and the geographical circulation of IDV, and (ii) development of a murine model in order to study the pathogenesis of IDV. First, the host range and geographical circulation of IDV were analyzed using serological and/or virological tools, on domestic species from France, Luxembourg and Africa; but also in wild fauna species from differents countries. We observed that IDV circulates mainly in bovine, but other species, such as swine or small ruminants, seem susceptible to the virus too. Virological and phylogenic analyses demonstrated that IDV strains circulating in France are genetically close to European viral strains. Moreover, it appears that camelids, cervids and marsupials could be new hosts for the virus. Finally, we developed a murine model in order to better understand the pathogenesis of the virus. The results suggest that IDV presents a low pathogenesis in mice compared to what was observed in the calf model, although similarities have been observed. In conclusion, IDV circulates throughout the world and seems to have a wide host range, which includes species from the wild fauna. Moreover, the murine model allowed us to better understand of IDV's pathogenesis, especially its replication (fitness, tropism) and associated immune response
Blais, Philippe. "Élaboration d'un modèle de trafic à partir de données massives de trajectoires automobiles en assurance". Master's thesis, Université Laval, 2021. http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11794/69181.
Fassert, Christine. "La transparence dans les organisations à risque : une approche ethnographique dans le contrôle de la navigation aérienne". Paris 1, 2009. http://www.theses.fr/2009PA010716.
Pradier, Sophie. "Circulation enzootique du virus West Nile en population équine : identification de facteurs de risque environnementaux en Camargue, France". Phd thesis, AgroParisTech, 2010. http://pastel.archives-ouvertes.fr/pastel-00605812.
Stankovic, Stéphanie. "Les processus cognitifs en jeu dans les jugements de risques en situation complexe et dynamique : le cas du contrôle aérien". Toulouse 2, 2008. http://www.theses.fr/2008TOU20105.
The main interrogation of this thesis is: “What are the cognitive processes involved in judgments of potential conflict given by air traffic controllers? “. To answer this question we investigated the risk judgments about conflict between two aircraft given by expert and novice air traffic controllers following the approach of the lens of Brunswik (1952) and the model of integrating information of Anderson (1996). The application of these two models to the risk judgments allow us to identify particular components that have a major role in shaping judgments and specify the rules governing integration. This application is developed across three empirical studies: the first relates to risk judgments issued by air traffic controllers' experts and students. In this study we propose a model of risk judgments based on three variables. The second study is a test of the proposed model and an analysis of the rules of integrating information. And the last study incorporates several elements in shaping judgments. We demonstrate that it is crucial to adopt an individual differences approach to study judgments by air traffic controllers. Also, these findings should have implications for developing user-friendly interfaces with conflict detection devices and for devising ATC training programs
Laarabi, Mohamed Haitam. "Optimisation multicritère des itinéraires pour transport des marchandises dangereuses en employant une évaluation en logique floue du risque et la simulation du trafic à base d'agents". Thesis, Paris, ENMP, 2014. http://www.theses.fr/2014ENMP0074/document.
Everyday thousands of trucks transporting hundreds of thousands of tons of dangerous goods by various modalities and both within and across nations. However, the term “dangerous” indicates an intrinsic adversity that characterize these products, which can manifest in an accident leading to release of a hazardous substance (e.g. radioactive, flammable, explosive etc.). In this situation, the consequences can be lethal to human beings, other living organisms and damage the environment and public/private properties.The importance of dangerous goods boils down to the significant economic benefits that generates. In fact, one cannot deny the contribution of the transport of all fossil fuel derived product, which represents more than 60% of dangerous goods transported in Europe. Eni, the Italian leading petrochemical company, every day operates a fleet of about 1,500 trucks, which performs numerous trips from loading terminals to filling stations. Distribution of petroleum products is a risky activity, and an accident during the transportation may lead to serious consequences.Aware of what is at stake, the division Eni R&M - Logistics Secondary, historically active in Genoa headquarters, is collaborating since 2002 with the DIBRIS department at University of Genoa, and the CRC at Mines ParisTech, with the purpose of studying possible improvements regarding safety in transport of dangerous goods, particularly petroleum products. Over years, this collaboration has led to the development of different technologies and mainly to an information and decision support system. The major component of this system is a platform for monitoring Eni fleet, at the national level, to deliver the products to the distribution points, called the Transport Integrated Platform (TIP). These vehicles are equipped with a device capable of transmitting data stream in real-time using a GPRS modem. The data transmitted can be of different nature and contain information about the state of the vehicle and occurred events during the trip. These data are intended to be received by centralized servers then get processed and stored, in order to support various applications within the TIP.With this in mind, the studies undertaken throughout the thesis are directed towards the development of a proposal to further minimize the risk related to the transportation of dangerous goods. In other words, a trade-off based model for route selection taking into consideration economic and safety factors. The objective is prompted by the need to support existent regulations and safety standards, which does not assure a full warranty against accidents involving dangerous goods.The goal is carried out by considering the existent system as basis for developing an Intelligent Transportation System (ITS) aggregating multiple software platforms. These platforms should allow planners and decision makers to monitor in real-time their fleet, to assess risk and evaluate all possible routes, to simulate and create different scenarios, and to assist at finding solutions to particular problems.Throughout this dissertation, I highlight the motivation for such research work, the related problem statements, and the challenges in dangerous goods transport. I introduce the TIP as the core for the proposed ITS architecture. For simulation purposes, virtual vehicles are injected into the system. The management of the data collection was the subject of technical improvement for more reliability, efficiency and scalability in real-time monitoring of dangerous goods shipment. Finally, I present a systematic explanation of the methodology for route optimization considering both economic and risk criteria. The risk is assessed based on various factors mainly the frequency of accident leading to hazardous substance release and its consequences. Uncertainty quantification in risk assessment is modelled using fuzzy sets theory
Belmekki, Sabrine. "Multi-level risk and collective perception for high quality of service automated mobility in a highly dynamic V2X connected environment". Electronic Thesis or Diss., Université de Lille (2022-....), 2023. http://www.theses.fr/2023ULILB009.
The use of automated vehicle (AV) technologies such as self-driving cars is becoming more prevalent in daily life. These technologies aim to create fully- connectedtransportation systems, still there are concerns that remain unaddressed. Studieshave shown that AVs can reduce collisions, ease traffic congestion, and providetransportation options for those who lack access. Yet, car manufacturers havealready implemented certain automated features in their vehicles. One importantaspect of AVs is improving communication between the vehicle and roadside.The objective of this study is to investigate the adaptability and suitability of theChain branch leaf (CBL) communication model in cooperative systems to exam-ine its impact on traffic responses. Additionally, the research aims to determinethe role of Roadside Units and the effectiveness of multi-level perception in riskmitigation. The ultimate goal of this research is to improve communication andcollaboration between autonomous vehicles leading to safer and more efficient traf-fic flow.This thesis focuses on the estimation of obstacle attributes, the road, and theego-vehicle to improve the quality of service on the road through communication,localization, and perception functions. We propose architectures and communica-tion strategies that will take into account the information of surrounding vehiclesto optimize coverage and estimate collision risk at different levels including local,extended local, extended branch, and global.Subsequently, we use the most relevant metrics (Time to Collision (TTC), TimeHeadway (TH), Distance of Gruyer (DG), RISK (R), Risk estimator with Uncer-tainties and Multidimensional model (RIMUM)), to estimate the four (extended)collision risks. In optimal conditions first with perfect location and perception,and then the uncertainty scenario of perception with perfect location. Resultsshow that the extended risks allow better anticipation of the collision than thelocal risk.Furthermore, we have developed a new extended version of the Chain branch leaf-Gateway (CBL-G) model, which proves to be more efficient in terms of coverage.The hierarchical architecture of the model allows us to calculate collision riskswith greater accuracy. The different levels of risk allow us to identify potentiallydangerous situations earlier, which is considered to be very relevant for incidentprevention.In our future research projects, we plan to study other situations such as roadintersections, highway exits, and entrances, as well as roundabouts. Additionally,we would also like to explore cases where we are unable to locate nodes throughthe chain (such as passing through tunnels). And elaborate risk indicators thatexplore all key components (ego vehicle, driver, obstacle, road, and environment)
Fouilloux, Virginie. "Contribution à l'amélioration de la qualité et de la gestion des risques en chirurgie cardiaque. : Conception, réalisation et évaluation de techniques d'enseignement basées sur la simulation sur modèle animal vivant". Thesis, Aix-Marseille, 2014. http://www.theses.fr/2014AIXM5046/document.
The quality and the risk management became, during the last decade, the main stakes within the initiatives of improvement of medical and paramedical practices.Education and teaching have to constitute the basement on which these various steps can build. In the field of health, the simulation stands out as one of the most successful tools contributing to the improvement of the practices.Our work concerns more particularly the very specialized area represented by cardiac surgery. We propose an educational tool based on the simulation from an in-vivo animal model.After a first stage to design the model and its relevance, two curriculum of training, one concerning basics and the other concerning continuing medical education, are proposed and assessed.To improve the quality and the risk management in France, a comparison with the initiatives already established abroad, in particular in Canada, is depicted.Finally, the School of the CEC comes to illustrate what could be, in France, an example of training curriculum for medical and paramedical professions in the field of the cardiac surgery
Wang, Zhiyi. "évaluation du risque sismique par approches neuronales". Thesis, Université Paris-Saclay (ComUE), 2018. http://www.theses.fr/2018SACLC089/document.
Seismic probabilistic risk assessment (SPRA) is one of the most widely used methodologiesto assess and to ensure the performance of critical infrastructures, such as nuclear power plants (NPPs),faced with earthquake events. SPRA adopts a probabilistic approach to estimate the frequency ofoccurrence of severe consequences of NPPs under seismic conditions. The thesis provides discussionson the following aspects: (i) Construction of meta-models with ANNs to build the relations betweenseismic IMs and engineering demand parameters of the structures, for the purpose of accelerating thefragility analysis. The uncertainty related to the substitution of FEMs models by ANNs is investigated.(ii) Proposal of a Bayesian-based framework with adaptive ANNs, to take into account different sourcesof information, including numerical simulation results, reference values provided in the literature anddamage data obtained from post-earthquake observations, in the fragility analysis. (iii) Computation ofGMPEs with ANNs. The epistemic uncertainties of the GMPE input parameters, such as the magnitudeand the averaged thirty-meter shear wave velocity, are taken into account in the developed methodology.(iv) Calculation of the annual failure rate by combining results from the fragility and hazard analyses.The fragility curves are determined by the adaptive ANN, whereas the hazard curves are obtained fromthe GMPEs calibrated with ANNs. The proposed methodologies are applied to various industrial casestudies, such as the KARISMA benchmark and the SMART model
Fargetton, Xavier. "Embryotoxicité de l'albendazole : évaluation du risque chez l'homme". Lyon 1, 1985. http://www.theses.fr/1985LYO1W036.
Diab, Maalouf Rubeiz Christiane. "Le risque du crédit au Liban : une évaluation empirique". Thesis, Nancy 2, 2007. http://www.theses.fr/2007NAN20003.
The Credit Risk which existed in all financial contracts constitutes the principal resource of loss for the banks and financial institutions in Lebanon. During the last years, the measure and the risk management have grown an importance in the banking industry, causing a development of new tools especially for the Corporate. The banking authorities, who are realizing this evolution, have decided to reform the regulation of the Capital Adequacy. Thus, the reform of Basle II proposes new allocation of assets based on better evaluation of risk. Basle II incites the banks to be provided by performing internal system of scoring of all their customers (Retail and Corporate).For this purpose, the Lebanese banking sector has shown, in matters of credit, an unprecedented evolution, consequence of three principal changes:a growing role of financial market in the international financial system; an emergence in the middle of banks of new quantitative techniques of Management of Credit Risk; a banking regulation in progress of change.This thesis have for objective to present all the different risk, take stock of their management in the midst of Lebanese banks and to provide a lighting on the new track of development viewed for these banks in order to come from the high risk
Bléhaut, Marianne. "Risque industriel, marché immobilier et évaluation des politiques publiques". Thesis, Université Paris-Saclay (ComUE), 2016. http://www.theses.fr/2016SACLS203.
This thesis falls within the scope of urban economics, environmental economics and public policy evaluation. The first part (chapters 1 and 2) is an empirical evaluation of the impact of industrial risk perception on the housing market. More specifically, these chapters rely on quantitative methods originally designed for public policy evaluation to measure the reaction of local housing markets to two changes in industrial risk perception. Chapter 1 analyzes the consequences of the AZF accident (Toulouse, 2001), and chapter 2 the consequences of the Bachelot regulation (passed in 2003). Both chapters show that additional information on industrial risk translated into a significant housing price decrease of about 2% on average. This price effect is consistent with an initial imperfect information setting. In addition, there is some evidence of neighborhood composition changes following these changes. This first part builds on typical examples in which randomized experiments cannot be designed, which lead to questioning the properties of estimators based on propensity score estimation. This is the aim of the second part (chapters 3 and 4) of the thesis. Chapter 3 compares the performances of experimental and non-experimental estimators using the example of a job-search assistance programme. It shows that, in this particular case, matching methods cannot accurately replicate the experimental results. Chapter 4 proposes the BEAST estimator as an alternative to typical propensity score matching, and illustrates its properties on simulations and case studies
Sahal, Alexandre. "Le risque tsunami en France : contributions méthodologiques pour une évaluation intégrée par scénarios de risque". Phd thesis, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - Paris I, 2011. http://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00651617.
Sahal, Alexandre. "Le risque tsunami en France : contributions méthodologiques pour une évaluation intégrée par scénarios de risque". Phd thesis, Paris 1, 2011. http://www.theses.fr/2011PA010654.
Ittah-Anahory, Tal. "Évaluation des risques de l'ISCI". Montpellier 1, 1998. http://www.theses.fr/1998MON11118.
Kacem, Manel. "Processus de risque : modélisation de la dépendance et évaluation du risque sous des contraintes de convexité". Thesis, Lyon 1, 2013. http://www.theses.fr/2013LYO10051/document.
In this thesis we focus on two different problems which have as common point the contribution to the modeling and to the risk management in insurance. In the first research theme, we are interested by the modeling of the dependence in insurance. In particular we propose an extension to model with common factor. In the second research theme we consider the class of nonincreasing discrete distributions and we are interested in studying the effect of additional constraint of convexity on the convex extrema. Some applications in ruin theory motivate our interest to this subject. The first part of this thesis is concerned with factor models for the modeling of the dependency in insurance. An interesting property of these models is that the random variables are conditionally independent with respect to a factor. We propose a new model in which the conditioning is with respect to the entire memory of the factor. In this case we give some mixing properties of risk process under conditions related to the mixing properties of the factor process and to the conditional mixing risk process. The law of the sum of random variables has a great interest in actuarial science. Therefore we give some conditions under which the law of the aggregated process converges to a normal distribution. In the second part of the thesis we consider the class of discrete distributions whose probability mass functions (p.m.f.) are nonincreasing on a finite support. Convex extrema in that class of distributions are well-known. Our purpose is to point out how additional shape constraints of convexity type modify these extrema. Two cases are considered : the p.m.f. is globally convex on N or it is convex only from a given positive point. The corresponding convex extrema are derived by using a simple crossing property between two distributions. Several applications to some ruin problems are presented for illustration
Fortier, Catherine. "La vitamine D en hémodialyse : Évaluation du risque de chute". Thesis, Université Laval, 2012. http://www.theses.ulaval.ca/2012/29574/29574.pdf.
Merhy, Chafic. "Les IDE face au risque politique d'expropriation : analyse et évaluation". Montpellier 1, 2006. http://www.theses.fr/2006MON10029.
Kpanake, Lonzozou. "La perception des risques : trois études comparatives Europe versus Afrique". Toulouse 2, 2008. http://www.theses.fr/2008TOU20038.
The present dissertation consists of three studies. The first assessed the impact of the media on people’s risk perception by comparing risk ratings obtained from Togolese villagers (N = 304) without access to the media with risk ratings obtained from Togolese city-dwellers (N = 341) with access to the media and risk ratings obtained from French participants (N = 795). The overall mean risk judgment observed among the Togolese villagers (m = 25. 18) was lower than the mean rating observed among the Togolese city-dwellers (m = 38. 90), and lower than the mean rating observed among the French (m = 45. 61). The linear association observed between the Togolese villagers’ ratings and the Togolese city-dweller ratings (0. 75) and the French ratings (0. 65) was less strong than that observed between Togolese city-dwellers and French (0. 92). The impact of the media on risk perception was estimated to an increase of about 15% of the overall mean ratings, and to about 31% of the variance of the mean ratings. The second study examined knowledge about hepatitis C infection among Togolese (N = 312), in relation to that of French people (N = 742), and medical experts (N = 14). Differences between French’s ratings and Experts’ ratings (22. 2%) were slightly lower than differences between Togolese’s ratings and those of experts (29. 3%). The linear associations observed between differences are very strong (0. 91). The third study examined first, the extent of Togolese users’ (N = 300) knowledge of the health risks associated with the regular use of bleaching agents. A massive underestimation of some of the main risks was discovered. Secondly, the motives underlying the practice of regular skin bleaching were examined, using Reversal Theory as the theoretical framework. The eight type of basic motives that are constitutive of this theory were evidenced. Four of them appeared as clearly dominant ones. Participants practiced skin bleaching on a regular basis mainly for appearing important persons, for looking attractive, because they enjoyed their light skin, and because skin bleaching was fashionable. They did not practice skin bleaching as a demonstration of opposition to African culture or to their relatives or as a demonstration of compliance with others’ wishes. They sometimes practiced skin bleaching for securing a job. Implications in terms of health risk taking are discussed
Plot, Emmanuel. "Nature humaine et maîtrise des risques majeurs : Proposition d'une grille d'analyse et de management des établissements industriels". Paris 4, 2003. http://www.theses.fr/2003PA040023.
For ethical, but also economic, political and social reasons, managers are interested in and responsible for managing major risk control organisations which their industry weigh upon people and their environments. Unfortunately, the deficiencies of these organisations are numerous. Human error (in its large sense) is considered the domninant cause of accidents (Three Misle Island, Chernobyl, Seveso, Bhopal,. . . -AZF?-). To help, invite or compel them to improve this situation, methods, norms and laws have been developed in the past twenty years. Their usefulness is indisputable. But they are insufficient. They do not the management of human efficiency. They are based upon a narrow vision of man and his organisations. Modestly, this research proposes a solution through the development of a new grid for analysing and managing the major risk control. The guiding hypothesis is founded upon a conception of human nature borrowed from J. Baechler : "the human realm is written in a language which we can qualify as strategic because the two basic terms are problem/solution". This research demonstrates the necessity of this hypothesis and how the entirety of the analytical grid lows from it. The challenge is to succeed in discovering the lingual code of major risk control organisations. If we succeed, we give ourselves the means of rendering intelligible their historical events, and of identifying factors of good and bad organisational practices, those which are not favorable to the origin of errors and those which are
Ferrant, Véronique. "Crainte et risque pénal des auteurs indirects de délits non intentionnels : risque routier et infrastructure". Le Mans, 2004. http://www.theses.fr/2004LEMAA001.
Maréchal, Jean-Paul. "La gestion économique du risque environnemental majeur". Paris 1, 1990. http://www.theses.fr/1990PA010038.
The last thirty years have seen the risk of pollution increasingly take the form of major technological accidents and micropollutions. It is this new kind of risk that we call "major environmental risk". The aim of this thesis is to determine how this new risk can be submitted to economic management. After having demonstrated that the major environmental risk is a non-probabilisable risk due to an inmeasurable probability of occurrence and unpredictable real maximum consequences - a situation of uncertainty according to f. H. Knight's defini- tion - with the notions of responsibility liability and general interest being chal- lenged, the author proposes a double economic management of the major environmental risk. First, a "downstream management" based ont he "economy of conventions" consist- ing of a four level insurance system. Second, an "upstream management" which, given the limits of the neoclassical theory in general and the decision theory in particular, requires the conceptualiza- tion of an "open economy" whereby the means of intervention is the "normative manage- ment under constraint"
Louargant, Christine. "Risque de change et valeur de l'entreprise". Grenoble 2, 2000. http://www.theses.fr/2000GRE2A003.
Feyler, Stéphanie. "Évaluation et surveillance des risques relatifs aux conglomérats financiers". Thesis, Poitiers, 2012. http://www.theses.fr/2012POIT4005/document.
The arisen structural changes, and still current, within the financial industry are especially numerous, multiple and complex. The analysis of their consequences, particularly on financial stability, turns out crucial. Our work concentrates on one of these transformations, the emergence and the development of the financial conglomeration, which has for peculiarity to mix diversification and globalization, and which in our sense was rarely studied. Our objective is to contribute to fill this lack. We articulated our reflection around three axes: the practice apprehension of the financial conglomeration, its implications in terms on risk exposure, and its incidences in prudential plan, more particularly in terms on architecture of the financial supervision. We suggest mitigating the absence of data dedicated specifically to this movement by using data relative to the operations of mergers & acquisitions. While it seems impossible to assert in a unambiguous way if these groups are more or less risked that their counterparts individual and susceptible to expose the financial sphere to aggravated and\or new risks, we clarify elements to engender a higher risk profile, underline the importance to adopt a global perspective towards this level of incurred risk and demonstrate the pernicious incidence of the strategy of diversification on the probability of systematic risk. Finally, we show by means of a Probit Multinomial that the financial conglomeration is an explanatory factor in the highly-rated of factors traditionally advanced by the unification of the national authorities of supervision
Berdier, Chantal. "Elaboration d'une méthodologie pour la prise en compte du risque dans le domaine des déchets urbains : le cas des déchets médicaux diffus dans le Grand Lyon". Lyon, INSA, 1997. http://www.theses.fr/1997ISAL0095.
For the last twenty years, the proble. Ms related to waste have taken on paramount interest in society as waste is increasing as well in quantity as in noxiousness. The destruction of ordinary waste is relatively well controlled whereas the induce effects are far from being under control as far as the risky part is concerned, therefore, the problem of urban waste will be analysed in the scope of this research, in terms of induce risks. The meaning of the notion of risk here, brings in technical elements together with social ones. These are two facets upon which the definition of. The concept of risk is based. So, after identifying urban waste and giving a definition of the concept of risk, we have adopted a method based both on objective dimension and on urban user perception in order to approach and evaluate risk. In this context, managing the risk specific to urban waste, goes through a global policy of controlling urban waste which includes numerous actor with apposed logics. Experimenting the method on a type of waste, scattered medical waste coming from liberal health practitioners in greater Lyon, makes two important results clear: perceived risks is over estimated and real risks are few. In such conditions, managing risk consists in starting - Upstream, precaution measures, - Downstream, repairing measures
Elmsiyah, Cherif. "La solvabilité des conglomérats financiers : évaluation, modélisation et gestion du risque". Thesis, Orléans, 2009. http://www.theses.fr/2009ORLE0504.
As part of the debate involving many operators on the question of the solvency of financial conglomerates, the assessment of capital needs -beside regulation- the development of internal models able to take into account the effect of diversification and new risks caused by the integration of companies in the conglomerate. Banks and insurance companies develop more and more models of economic capital which are used both for the determination of the demand of statutory capital as well as for managing internal risk and capital. With the influence of the conglomerates of the world financial system, the aim must be to extend the use of these models across conglomerates on a global level. The main challenges facing the construction of these models concern the identification and the modelling of all risks which could affect the solvency of the conglomerates and the correlation between these risks. In addition to the difficulties linked to the assessment of correlations and risks, the methods of measurement and management within the conglomerate could vary from one sector to another and from one entity to another. The purpose of this thesis is to identify and analyse the impact of different sources of diversification and factors of risk – i.e. which are caused by the joint exercise of bank and insurance activity- on the level of risks and the capital of conglomerates
Ainou, Viou. "La gestion du risque de longévité et évaluation de produits dérivés". Thesis, Lyon 1, 2013. http://www.theses.fr/2013LYO10127.
This thesis discuss about the longevity / mortality risk and its impact on pension funds and insurers. In the first part, we consider and expose the different mortality models. The state of art done, we propose an extension, using the Lévy processes, of the well-known model CBD. The Lévy processes are considered to take in account of jumps in mortality curve. The new model will be used, in the second part of this thesis, as underlined index to value the longevity derivatives. We use the Wang and Esscher Transforms as martingales measure because of incompleteness of the longevity market. These two measures are, beforehand, defined and the ways they represent pricing measures are exposed. Finally, we propose a new contract “the mortality collar”, which is a hedging instrument against the longevity or mortality risk, as well as for insurer, but also for pension fund. We give a complete analysis of this new management tool regarding its mechanism and its pricing
Nsas-Nsas, Déborah Rebecca Solange. "Évaluation du risque de crédit des PME manufacturières québécoises en croissance". Thèse, Université du Québec à Trois-Rivières, 2002. http://depot-e.uqtr.ca/4072/1/000102218.pdf.
Chaussende, Claude. "Hépatectomies, évaluation technique et risque transfusionnel : à propos de 422 cas". Bordeaux 2, 1996. http://www.theses.fr/1996BOR23003.
Obertelli, Patrick. "Attitudes et conduites face aux risques : deux études en milieu technologique nucléaire et en milieu technologique classique". Paris 10, 1993. http://www.theses.fr/1993PA100084.
The current research deals with the risks of workers in the industrial plants. This research is organised around two sets of questions: - How far can a person's experiences organise or disrupt his rationality in the face of risk? Particularly, what abotu the methods of organizing his thoughts which at first seem inappropriate to the situations he encounters? Does the nature of organisational and technological structures have an influence on these attitudes and conduct and if so, in what way? Are there any noticeable constants independant of these contexts? Two studies have been carried out, one by means of questionnaires, the other through interviews. The results are structured around four major conclusions. They emphasize: 1- The existence of certain norms of risk acceptance within work-teams. 2- The necessity of a psychoemotional balance in the face of risk. The relations of individuals to their work-team and their organisation are equally examined. The phenomena of the distorsion of the perception of reality are also considered. 3- The existence of the polarisation of mental focus under time pressures. 4- The characteristics of the relationship to knowledge in a sophisticated technological universe
Gofti-Laroche, Leila. "Évaluation du risque microbiologique hydrique : validation épidémiologique des fonctions dose-réponse du risque viral et parasitaire : étude EMIRA". Université Joseph Fourier (Grenoble), 2001. http://www.theses.fr/2001GRE18001.
Buffet, Pierre-Emmanuel. "Évaluation du risque environnemental des nanoparticules métalliques : biodisponibilité et risque potentiel pour deux espèces clés des écosystèmes estuariens". Nantes, 2012. https://archive.bu.univ-nantes.fr/pollux/show/show?id=4222b036-2cc9-45e7-a146-038b3361bae3.
The advent of nanotechnologies is leading to the increase production of nanoparticles which could be released in the environment. Metal nanoparticles are used in a variety of commercial applications (bactericides, UV protection, medical imaging) and their toxicity is a source of concern. The aim of this work was to evaluate the fate of metal-bearing nanoparticles (Ag, Au, CuO, Cd, ZnO) in the marine environment and their effects on two marine endobenthic species : the bivalve Scrobicularia plana and the worm Hediste diversicolor by using a set of biomarkers at different levels of biological organization (behaviour, biochemical responses and genotoxicity). Effects were evaluated after exposure to different environmental sources (water, food, sediment independently or combined in mesocosms). In a number of cases, our work revealed a toxic effect of nanoparticles which is not due to the constituent metal but directly to the nanoproperties. Results show that biomarkers are promising tools to evaluate the ecotoxicity of nanoparticles and could be used to improve risk assessment
Grall-Bronnec, Marie. "Le jeu pathologique : facteurs de risque, évaluation, prise en charge thérapeutique : intérêt d'une évaluation clinique standardisée et répétée". Nantes, 2011. https://archive.bu.univ-nantes.fr/pollux/show/show?id=a517b371-ceba-45c5-909b-fb401837c543.
Little studies have been still conducted about pathological gambling. Nevertheless, lifetime prevalence rates for at risk and pathological gambling in the general population are ranged from 0. 3 to 7. 5%. Collective expert's report (INSERM) advised to carry out research, in particular longitudinal studies. EVALJEU study was thus started. It consists in a standardized and repeated clinical assessment of all at-risk and pathological gamblers seeking treatment in the Addictions department of the University Hospital of Nantes. It aims to draw specificities of the patients and to understand what influence their evolution, according to their initial characteristics and the treatment that was undergone. After a review of the literature about risk factors of pathological gambling on the one hand, standardized assessment of this addictive disorder on the other hand, forms of treatment at the present time finally, the interest of EVALJEU was demonstrated. The impulsivity of our sample was already better characterized. Particularities of the at-risk and pathological gamblers having a previous history of Attention Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder were also described, and risk factors for this comorbidity were identified. Moreover, a French adaptation of two questionnaires, included in EVALJEU's assessment, was first done. The results are discussed in comparison with the international literature. Future prospects are considered, in terms of treatment, but also of research
N'Gottet, Olivier. "Risque-pays et comportements allocatifs des banques". Aix-Marseille 2, 1994. http://www.theses.fr/1994AIX24014.
The country risk is a macro-economic one because the repayment of the loan depends not only on the availability in currencies of the borrowing country, but also on the willingness of the government of the country to follow economical policies to repay the loan. The government of the borrowing country is the only one to have a correct perception on the risks and may manipulate informations, which may increase the risks. The analysis of the methods to evaluate the country risk is placed in the context of asymmetric information for banks. The audit method we' propose, allows not only to evaluate the country risk, but also to verify and to control the information credibility. This method is an incitative mechanism of acquisition and treatment of information based an proximity. The country risk is considered as a whole, to understand how the economy works, the economical and, political prospects, on going or to be pollowed. It allows to evaluate and to prepare a global plan to anticipate risks zones and main axes of intervention. We illustrate the validation of the audit method with the example of Morocco
Chauvin, Bruno. "Personnalité, croyances, et perception des risques". Nantes, 2005. http://www.theses.fr/2005NANT3034.
The main purpose of this dissertation was to examine the relationship between two kinds of individual variables – New Age beliefs and personality facets – and risk perception. 795 respondents were asked to estimate a) a broad range of hazards reported by Bouyer & al (2001) and evaluated by means of psychometric paradigm (Slovic, Fischhoff & Lichtenstein, 1985a); b) an array of paranormal beliefs that were investigated by Sjöberg & af Wahlberg (2002); And, c) a whole set of personality items extracted from a methodological framework AB5C IPIP (Goldberg, 1999). A eight-factor solution was retained to depict risk perception: Common individual hazards, Pollutants, Energy production, Sex and addictions, Psychotropic drugs, Weapons, Outdoor activities and Medical care. Variables age, sex, and educational level were investigated. Only about 5% of the variance of perceived risk was accounted for by these demographic characteristics. New Age beliefs contributed positively but weakly to the prediction of perceived risk. Energy production was proved to be the most predicted risk factor by New Age beliefs (6% of the variance). Key personality facets pertaining to each of Big Five factors were identified. They were most predictive of risk perception. These facets were Self-disclosure, Tenderness, Rationality, Imperturbability, and Creativity. These facets are effective individual explanatory determinants of perceived risk and should be taken into account for understanding individual risk perception in depth
Chorier, Julien. "Diagnostic et évaluation des risques incendie d’une construction et de sa mise en sécurité". Chambéry, 2007. http://www.theses.fr/2007CHAMS002.
The fire safety level assessment for buildings is now necessary in order to be able to satisfy given requirements for new or refurbished buildings. One of the main missions of the Fire Safety Department of CSTB (Scientific and Technical Center for Building in France) is to help to the choice of methodologies and tools for evaluation and improvement of fire safety for existing buildings. Our study aims to develop the means to help building managers in fire risk diagnosis and decision making for the protection of buildings and their occupants (maintenance, repair, reinforcement, demolition). This work is integrated within the framework of the National ISI (Engineering of Fire protection) Project (PN ISI). We are members with the CSTB ( which supports this research, of PN ISI. The diagnosis proposes a fire risk evaluation of buildings with respect to the different possible damage: people, property, structure, and environment. Then, our methodology is able to provide a choice between various proposals for fire safety improvement, and to distribute a budget allocated to safety. Our study is carried out on various kinds of buildings, excluding industrial buildings where dangers are too specific. It should also provide a structured approach in order to obtain an efficient communication with safety commissions and other concerned players. Our fire risk assessment method for helping building inspectors or engineers to reach a given safety level in a building is based on the use of Petri nets and simplified evaluation models of physical parameters related to fire (temperature, height without smoke). Evaluation of injury to people and damage to the building is obtained through probabilistic simulations developed from danger events identified by experts. Various safety improvement actions can be simulated and compared in order to retain the most effective one. Specific examples are given and an analysis of the most important points to develop in the future is provided
Donguy, Arnaud. "Contribution de l'information géographique aux métiers de l'assurance pour la gestion des événements d'ampleur". Phd thesis, Ecole Nationale Supérieure des Mines de Paris, 2012. http://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00741931.
Sebaaoui, Christine. "Spécificités et perspectives de la titrisation française : analyse des risques spécifiques, évaluation et motivations des acteurs". Lille 2, 1994. http://www.theses.fr/1994LIL20009.
The french "titrisation", derived from the american securitisation, is a way for banks to sell loans from the balance sheets and to issue, in return a new financial asset, the "fonds commun de creances". Explanations of the present structure of the french securitisation have been searched in terms of market's actors. On the one hand, the most inportant problem for investors is to value the risks and to estimate the price of these new assets : default and prepayment risks will be integrated in pricing models. On the other hand, banks must be motivated to securitise, especially to respect the capital adequacy requirements (cooke ratio). Securitisation is indeed an instrument for balance sheet management
Gatfaoui, Hayette. "Évaluation et analyse du risque de défaut de paiement des actifs financiers". Paris 1, 2002. http://www.theses.fr/2002PA010025.
Baroni, Michel. "Analyse du risque de l'immobilier physique : évaluation et application aux financements structurés". Paris 10, 2002. http://www.theses.fr/2002PA100009.
The aim of the thesis is to analyze the risk factors associated with real estate physical investment. A rich database of over 100000 transactions mainly for residential properties in the Paris area over the 1973-1998 period is explored. The main risk factors are identified using the Principal Component Analysis as well as a Stepwise WLS Regression Method. .
Orou, Zime Hamed. "Une évaluation du risque d'innovation sur les rendements boursiers des entreprises américaines". Master's thesis, Université Laval, 2019. http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11794/35199.
The principal objective pursued by this thesis is to measure the risk of innovation on the return on corporates assets. To do this, we use three measures of innovation, namely: R&D expenditure / Book value (RD/VC ), R&D / Total assets expense (RD/AT), and the elasticity R&D of the total income (r). Through these three measures, we build three innovation risk premiums. When the innovation premium is associated with the ratio RD/VC or RD/AT , our results indicate that firms are not only exposed to the risk of innovation, but also that their sensitivity to the risk of innovation is inversely proportional to their size. On the other hand, when the innovation premium is associated with r, we notice that our coefficients are very weak and insignificant. We therefore conclude that the most innovative companies are those that invest the most in research and development.
Chautru, Lionel. "Le management des risques : une question socio-cognitive. Une recherche finalisée à destination des "risk-managers". A partir d'une action de gestion des risques à la SNCF". Toulouse 1, 2008. http://www.theses.fr/2008TOU10010.
The question of professional risks in a company was and has always been at the core of the history of work. Nowadays, the accelerated evolution of companies has given this question a dimension that goes over that of management. Risks are at the heart of our modes of functioning, our modes of management, whether they are linked to the world of work, as the object of this paper is, or whether they are financial issues, geopolitical ones, of public health… In a context of moving and adapting organizations, the existing resources to manage risks, such as the a priori analysis of professional risks, must become thoroughly familiar with the implicit knowledge, and not run after the illusion of a frozen and rooted world, “entirely” guaranteeing its safety. Risk-managers are therefore faced with their own acquisition – from experience – of the systems and modalities to be carried out in order to encourage the development and transfer of the necessary skills towards the associates of the company. The modalities to implement these systems must be adapted to the modes of learning and acquisition of these types of skills, while also taking into account the permanent renewal of knowledge. This research, which has been carried out within the SNCF i. E. The French National Railway Society, claims to be a thought about a crucial issue which is often dealt with superficially, from a unique angle of attack – the technical-prescriptive one. Given the limits of that approach, we have chosen to deal with this question from a socio-cognitive point of view. The subject is therefore presented in a new light – reconsidering the transfer of skills more in terms of joint effort and participation in the action than in terms of organized transmission. A question yet remains open in our closing part – what must the contribution of the Human Resources Department be in such a context ?
Smirnov, Andrei. "Risque de contrepartie, de marché et de système dans les relations interbancaires". Paris 1, 1997. http://www.theses.fr/1997PA010001.
The interbank relations are the central element of modern financial system, the mechanism of reinsurance and coinsurance of financial risks taken by different economic agents and the highly specific field of banking activity. The interbank relations bring about certain individuals risks (especially countreparty and market risks) that could regenerate under some circumstances into systemic risk. The capacity of resistance of financial system and banking sector to systemic crisis is not constant and depends upon the facility of diffusion of shocks provoked by the realisation of individuals risks in financial infrastructure and upon the solidity of market agents who take these risks. Today, regardless some imperfections, the security mechanism, including market discipline and public authorities' actions, plays crucial role in maintaining the stability of banking sector in developed countries and strongly reduces the probability of systemic shocks
Gaudreault, Valérie. "L'hypertension d'effort : Un continuum clinique? Du syndrome métabolique au diabète de type 2 en passant par l'athlète. Qu'en est-il de la réponse hémodynamique à l'effort, des anomalies métaboliques associées et de la modulation autonome cardiaque?" Thesis, Université Laval, 2013. http://www.theses.ulaval.ca/2013/29938/29938.pdf.
Etienne, Julien. "L'impact de l'action publique sur les comportements privés : une approche de goal framing theory". Amiens, 2009. http://www.theses.fr/2009AMIE0051.
Gueye, Dieng Khadidiatou. "Analyse du risque technique de la branche incapacité-invalidité". Lyon 1, 2000. http://www.theses.fr/2000LYO10254.
Monsinjon, Sylvie. "Défaillances, paniques bancaires et risque de système". Rouen, 1998. http://www.theses.fr/1998ROUEL304.
Marlier, Grégory. "Peut-on prendre le risque de la capitalisation ?" Lille 1, 2007. https://pepite-depot.univ-lille.fr/LIBRE/Th_Num/2007/50374-2007-Marlier.pdf.
Morelli, Xavier. "Pollution de l'air, santé et défaveur sociale en zone urbaine". Thesis, Université Grenoble Alpes (ComUE), 2016. http://www.theses.fr/2016GREAS015/document.
In urban areas, atmospheric pollution represents a major threat to human health. The accurate characterization of this threat relies centrally on the quality of exposure assessment. It also requires assessment of other factors sharing the same sources and also possibly impacting health, such as noise. Fine-scale exposure assessment of air pollution levels may allow identifying spatial contrasts. Such spatial variations may lead to social differences in the distribution of the health impact of these pollutants.The general aims of the PhD were: 1. To study the possibility to model ultrafine particles distribution in urban areas and assess the correlation of ultrafine particles levels with road traffic noise; 2. To assess the risk incurred by air pollution exposure with a fine-scale modelling approach and investigate the potential socio-economic disparities in health burden induced by particulate matter; 3. To investigate the health benefits expected from hypothetical scenarios of reduction of air pollution levels at the urban scale.The first aim relies on Tri-tabs project, conducted in three European cities (Basel, Girona, Grenoble). Measurements during 20 minutes of outdoor noise and traffic, but not of UFP, were strongly reproducible over durations of a couple of days or months. In these areas, on the short-term, noise levels and UFP concentrations exhibited relatively moderate correlations, which may allow adjustment for mutual confounding in epidemiological studies, thus allowing to disentangle their possible short-term health effects.The second aim introduces health effects, and focuses on the longer term. Risk assessment studies often ignore within-city spatial variations of air pollutants. In Grenoble and Lyon areas (0.4 and 1.2 million inhabitants, respectively) in 2012, PM2.5 exposure was estimated on a 10×10 m grid by coupling a dispersion model to fine-scale data on population density. Outcomes were mortality, lung cancer and term low birth weight incidences. The numbers of cases attributable to air pollution were estimated overall and stratifying areas according to the European Deprivation Index, a measure of social deprivation. Estimations were repeated assuming spatial homogeneity of air pollutants within city. The proportion of cases attributable to air pollution was in the 3-8% range for mortality and 9–43% range for term low birth weight. In Grenoble, 6.8% (95% CI: 3.1–10.1%) of incident lung cancer cases were attributable to air pollution. The impact was underestimated by 8 to 20% when background monitoring stations were used to assess exposure, compared to fine-scale dispersion modeling. Health impact was highest in neighborhoods with intermediate to higher social deprivation.Several countries across Europe have implemented air pollution regulation policies, or low emission zones, France being an exception. We estimated the health impact of air pollution under different scenarios of reduction of fine particulate matter concentrations. Scenarios targeting a reduction in the PM2.5 annual averages by 5% led to a 10% decrease of the health burden, while actions aiming at only reducing the exposure of the population exposed above the 90th percentile did not yield a significant reduction of the health burden (around 1%).In conclusion, we have shown that short-term measurements cannot be used to model ultrafine particles levels in urban areas; we were among the first to rely on a fine-scale exposure model for estimating the health impact of air pollution, and quantify its impact on term low birth weight. Our estimations showed that background air quality monitoring stations used classically in France for health impact assessment studies tend to underestimate exposure, compared to a spatially-resolved dispersion model. We have provided an estimate of the air pollution decrease required to obtain a significant reduction of the health impact of air pollutants in urban areas
Mailhot, Mélina. "Mesures de risque et dépendance". Thesis, Université Laval, 2012. http://www.theses.ulaval.ca/2012/29656/29656.pdf.
In risk theory, the main task of the actuary is to manage the risks underwritten by the company so that, at any time, it will be able to fulfill its obligations. Risk measures are valuable tools for this purpose. In this thesis, risk measures and capital allocation methods based on the dependence between multivariate risks are studied. Also, new measures of risk and capital allocation methods are developed within the framework of multivariate portfolios with partially aggregated dependencies between risks. The introduction presents a literature review and the concepts discussed in this thesis. In the second chapter, the capital allocation based on the measure Tail Value-at- Risk (TVaR) for a portfolio of risks following multivariate distributions with continuous severities is presented. The third chapter is the study of the bivariate Value-at-Risk (VaR). The latter is studied and illustrated, according to the dependence between risks. Several results on the conditions of convexity and relative to concordance orders and bounds of this metric are set. An interesting application in insurance is also presented. The new bivariate lower and upper orthant TVaR are presented in chapter four. These measures are motivated, studied and applied to Equity Indexed Annuities associated with correlated assets. The fifth chapter presents a numerical algorithm in order to calculate lower and upper bounds for sums of random variables. The method suggested is concise and parsimonious. It also allows to compute bounds for the VaR for sums of random variables. A brief conclusion recalls the contributions of this thesis and suggests some interesting research venues in connection with topics discussed in the previous chapters.