Tesi sul tema "Changement du régime"
Cita una fonte nei formati APA, MLA, Chicago, Harvard e in molti altri stili
Vedi i top-50 saggi (tesi di laurea o di dottorato) per l'attività di ricerca sul tema "Changement du régime".
Accanto a ogni fonte nell'elenco di riferimenti c'è un pulsante "Aggiungi alla bibliografia". Premilo e genereremo automaticamente la citazione bibliografica dell'opera scelta nello stile citazionale di cui hai bisogno: APA, MLA, Harvard, Chicago, Vancouver ecc.
Puoi anche scaricare il testo completo della pubblicazione scientifica nel formato .pdf e leggere online l'abstract (il sommario) dell'opera se è presente nei metadati.
Vedi le tesi di molte aree scientifiche e compila una bibliografia corretta.
Labastida, Martín del Campo Julio. "Mexique : légitimité et changement de régime". Paris, EHESS, 2002. http://www.theses.fr/2002EHESA089.
The purpose of this thesis is to study recent politic changes in Mexico (1988-2000), changes being defined as a transition of an " authoritarian " government into a " democratic " one. The main hypothesis of this work is that this period is caracterized by a change of rules in the access to power, linked with a growing contest of the legitimacy of the post-revolutionnary political system. Elements of changing in the political practice and culture in Mexico are brought in the fore thanks to an analysis of new electoral behaviours and their social context
Puibasset, Christelle. "Changement de régime de change en période favorable". Aix-Marseille 2, 2003. http://www.theses.fr/2003AIX24009.
Domlan, Elom Ayih. "Diagnostic des systèmes à changement de régime de fonctionnement". Phd thesis, Institut National Polytechnique de Lorraine - INPL, 2006. http://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00107611.
Gholami, Zorgabad Gholamhossein. "Le problème de changement de régime : Une approche bayésienne". Paris 9, 2008. https://portail.bu.dauphine.fr/fileviewer/index.php?doc=2008PA090004.
The change-point problem deals with sudden change in the distribution of a given data. This problem received an increasing interest from both frequentist and Bayesian statisticians. This is caused by an awareness of important applications as well as by newly available theoretical and computational methods. Some of these new methods involve, for instance, advances in curve estimation methods, and MCMC methods. In this thesis we study different models with a single change-point from Bayesian viewpoint. The first chapter serves as technical introduction to the Bayesian methods and the Monte Carlo Markov Chain (MCMC) techniques that are used among the next chapters. In the second chapter we present a new aspect of change-point in regression analysis in which the change-point problem parameterized in term of change in functional form of the regression function from linear to non-linear function. We use the free knot cubic B-spline basis to representing the non-linear function. We follow a Bayesian approach and make use the Reversible Jump Mont Carlo Markov Chain (RJMCMC) algorithm to provide an approximated inference for the model. Chapter three introduces a model named “Poisson Stochastic Volatility Model” that is a special case of Generalized Dynamic Linear Models. In this model the observed variable follows a Poisson distribution while its logarithm of rate follows an AR(1). We use the Slice sampling method to sample from posterior distribution of the hidden process. In the next step, the model is generalized form AR(1) to AR(p) process when p is not known. The RJMCMC algorithm is used to provide an approximated inference to the model parameters. In chapter four we consider the change-point problem in the Stochastic Volatility models in which at the change-point all the parameters of the model are changed. We use the kth order method of Brooks et. Al (2003) to approximate the conditional posterior of the hidden process
Parquet, Muriel. "Le changement de régime matrimonial comme instrument de stratégie patrimoniale". Paris 2, 2005. http://www.theses.fr/2005PA020083.
Gassem, Anis. "Test d'ajustement d'un processus de diffusion ergodique à changement de régime". Phd thesis, Université du Maine, 2010. http://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00543318.
Gassem, Anis. "Test d'ajustement d'un processus de diffusion ergotique à changement de régime". Le Mans, 2010. http://cyberdoc.univ-lemans.fr/theses/2010/2010LEMA1016.pdf.
We consider the Cramér-von Mises goodness-of-fit type tests to test the hypothesis that the observed diffusion process is switching diffusion, i. E. , this process has sign-type trend coefficient. These tests are based on empirical distribution and empirical density functions. It is shown that the limit distributions of the proposed test statistics are defined by the integral type functionals of continuous Gaussian processes. We provide the Karhunen-Loéve expansion of the corresponding limiting processes. This expansion allows us to simplify the problem of the calculation of the thresholds. We study the behavior of these statistics under alternatives and we show that these tests are consistent. To treat the composite basic hypotheses we need to know the asymptotic behavior of statistical estimators of the unknown parameters. That is why we consider the problem of parameter estimation for switching diffusion process. We suppose that the unknown parameter is two-dimensional and we describe the asymptotic properties of the maximum likelihood and Bayesian estimators in this case. Using these estimators we construct the corresponding Cramér-von Mises type tests and study their limit distributions. Finally we consider two Cramér-von Mises type tests for ergodic diffusion process in the general case. It is shown that for a certain choice of weight functions these tests are asymptotically distribution-free. For some particular cases, we provide the explicit expressions of the limit distributions of these statistics via direct calculation of Laplace transforms
Frejaville, Thibaut. "Vulnérabilité des forêts de montagne des Alpes occidentales au changement de régime d'incendie". Thesis, Aix-Marseille, 2015. http://www.theses.fr/2015AIXM4322/document.
Mountain forests are experiencing an increase in fire occurrence. Through a retrospective analysis over the past decades of fire and climate, this dissertation firstly shows that Mediterranean ecosystems have experienced a strong decrease in fire activity, emphasizing the strong efficiency of fire suppression policies, while fires have been more frequent and large in mountains like the southern Alps. I used vegetation and climate data to characterize the flammability and fire resistance traits of mountain forests of the western Alps that determine their effects and responses to fire. Then, assessing the vulnerability to fire of mountain ecosystems and tree species was carried out by simulating the behaviour of surface fires and their impacts (tree mortality) within the environmental niches of dominant tree species. Results show that tree cover and the seasonality of precipitation largely drive the amount and flammability properties of surface fuels (litter, grass and shrubs). Therefore, these environmental gradients govern the flammability niches of tree species, from the few flammable dense and moist forests of the northern Alps, to the open and highly flammable sub-Mediterranean and subalpine forests of the southern and inner Alps, respectively. Otherwise, fire resistance traits of trees vary according to community flammability through a trade-off between tolerance (thick bark in dry climates) and avoidance strategies (high crown in moist climates), suggesting a coevolution between species and surface fires. To conclude, the niche properties and the life history traits of Alpine trees make them unequally exposed to an increasing fire risk in southern European mountains
Aït-Aoudia, Myriam. "L'apprentissage de la compétition pluripartisane en Algérie (1988-1992) : sociologie d'un changement de régime". Paris 1, 2008. http://www.theses.fr/2008PA010346.
Cournoyer, Paquin Bruno. "Clientélisme et corruption en Tunisie, de Ben Ali à la période contemporaine (1987-2017) : résilience et transformations d’une institution informelle". Thesis, Université d'Ottawa / University of Ottawa, 2020. http://hdl.handle.net/10393/40080.
Vigliotti, Chloé. "Etude de l'impact d'un changement de régime alimentaire sur le microbiome intestinal de Podarcis sicula". Thesis, Paris, Muséum national d'histoire naturelle, 2017. http://www.theses.fr/2017MNHN0011/document.
We collected and compared intestinal microbiota and microbiomes from several Podarcis sicula lizards, which live in Croatian continental and insular populations. One of these populations has recently changed its diet over an 46 years timespan, switching from an insectivorous diet to an omnivorous one (up to 80% herbivorous). Diversity analyses of these microbial communities, based on the V4 region of their 16S rRNA, showed that the microbiota taxonomic diversity (or alpha diversity) is higher in omnivorous lizards (enrichment in methanogenic archaea) than in insectivorous ones. Besides, microbial communities seem weakly structured: 5 enterotypes are detected at the phylum level, and 3 major phyla (Bacteroidetes, Firmicutes and Proteobacteria) are present. However, neither diet, spatial or temporal origin, nor lizard gender correlate with significant differences in microbiota. Linear discriminant analyses with size effect, based on OTUs and functionally annotated reads from the microbiomes, suggest that Podarcis sicula diet change is associated to targeted changes of the abundance of some enzymes in the microbiomes. Such a result leads us to propose a hypothesis of targeted changes in the microbial communities of this non-model holobiont, instead of more radical transformations. On a more theoretical level, this thesis also proposes network models (Reads similarity networks and bipartite graphs) that can help improving microbiome analyses
Lafaysse, Matthieu. "Changement climatique et régime hydrologique d'un bassin alpin : génération de scénarios sur la Haute-Durance, méthodologie d'évaluation et incertitudes associées". Toulouse 3, 2011. http://thesesups.ups-tlse.fr/1679/.
The impact of global change on regional climates and in turn on water resources is expected to be especially pronounced in mountainous areas. Future hydrological scenarios required for impact studies are usually simulated by forcing an hydrological impact model (HM) with high-resolution meteorological scenarios, obtained from statistical downscaling models (SDMs) forced by climate models (GCMs or RCMs) outputs. These SDMs are expected to fill the gap between the poor resolution and the bias of climate models scenarios and the requirements of impact models. Although a number of projections are currently performed worldwide, the relevance of the simulation chain GCM/SDM/MH is rarely discussed. We present here an evaluation framework to illustrate the possibilities and/or the difficulties to transfer in time these algorithms. We next illustrate the uncertainties in future meteorological and hydrological projections that can result from this imperfect transferability. Simulations and evaluations are performed for the Upper Durance Basin (3580 km2). The hydrological model SIM from Météo-France is adapted for the alpine context. We consider several configurations of 3 SDMs from CERFACS, LTHE and EDF, based on different atmospheric predictors. 12 climatic runs from the ENSEMBLES european project provide the large scale fields for the 1860-2100 period. In this context, the SDMs and GCMs related uncertainties are of the same order of magnitude
Escalona, Fabien. "La reconversion partisane de la social-démocratie européenne : du régime social-démocrate keynésien au régime social-démocrate du marché". Thesis, Université Grenoble Alpes (ComUE), 2016. http://www.theses.fr/2016GREAH029.
The thesis deals with the "partisan conversion" of social democracy in Europe. It aims to resolve the apparent paradox between the existence of many publications describing the crisis or even the death of social democracy on one hand, and the fact that this political family has remained one of the major party alternatives on the other hand. We define the partisan conversion as a singular type of party change, which was the only one that could help the Social democrats to overcome the obsolescence of their project, electoral support and organizational model. My analysis is methodologically anchored in the historical institutionalism paradigm. It offers a macrosociological comparison of four processes of partisan conversion in the United Kingdom, France, Sweden and Germany. The similarities and differences between these processes are then explained, partly through a set of variables weighing on the structure and the temporality of conversions. My work ends with an appreciation of how theses conversions have been put under stress by the 2008 global crisis. The thesis thus provides a reconstructed picture of the historical path of social democracy, additional analytical tools to the literature in party change, and some insights to the reflections about the contemporary cleavage structures. Our intention is also to prove the usefulness of an investigation nurtured by the most recent works on global capitalism and the modern state
Tremblay, Julie. "Analyse dendroécologique du changement récent dans le régime d'enneigement insulaire au réservoir Robert-Bourassa, Québec nordique". Thesis, National Library of Canada = Bibliothèque nationale du Canada, 1999. http://www.collectionscanada.ca/obj/s4/f2/dsk1/tape9/PQDD_0006/MQ44978.pdf.
Kaisermann, Aurore. "Effets du changement du régime hydrique sur l'activité et la diversité des communautés microbiennes du sol". Paris 6, 2013. http://www.theses.fr/2013PA066100.
Loulidi, Sanae. "Modélisation stochastique en finance, application à la construction d’un modèle à changement de régime avec des sauts". Thesis, Bordeaux 1, 2008. http://www.theses.fr/2008BOR13675/document.
Abstract
Romier, Maxime. "Simulation électromagnétique des antennes actives en régime non-linéaire". Phd thesis, Toulouse, INPT, 2008. http://oatao.univ-toulouse.fr/7824/1/romier.pdf.
Dijoux, Elisabeth. "Accès des femmes au foncier et changement des comportements de procréation dans le Sud-Bénin". Paris, Institut d'études politiques, 2001. http://www.theses.fr/2001IEPP0017.
Aguessy, Michael Nelson. "Une analyse multivariée de la longue mémoire et des changements de régime de Markov dans les rendements boursiers". Mémoire, Université de Sherbrooke, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/11143/5468.
Lestienne, Marion. "Quantification et modélisation de l'évolution du régime des feux au cours de l'Holocène et de l'Anthropocène en Corse". Thesis, Bourgogne Franche-Comté, 2019. http://www.theses.fr/2019UBFCD052.
In the Mediterranean Basin, Corsica houses some of the best preserved ecosystems in terms of habitat richness and vegetation type. It is also the French region the most affected by forest fires. Recent years of pastoral spending and global warming have greatly increased the probability of occurrence and spread of fire. In this context, the purpose of this thesis is to understand the causes and mechanisms of the fire regime in Corsica during the Holocene and to propose a prospective reading. The results of this work are those that started from the beginning of the Holocene and contributed to the diversification and diversification of the Mediterranean ecosystem. 6,000 to 5,000 years ago, when climatic conditions are less favourable for propagation and forest fires, agro-pastoral activities using the main agents of development of the disaster, are currently in Corsica. This work also proposes the use of the MDC to reconstruct the climatic conditions of fire hazard during the Holocene and thus define the reference values in known environmental contexts. On the way of this place, one begins to be Holocene with a climate earlier today, with sunshine and strong also that explains a fire regime passed at this time. However, the duration of the fire season (FSL) was limited to a hundred days. Whatever the evolution of climatic conditions scenario proposed by the IPCC for the current century, fire hazards calculated from the MDC and the FSL strongly increase. The MDC found comparable values at the beginning of the Holocene without being exceeded while the duration of the fire season (FSL) extended well beyond durations. We will then face the first time with a simultaneous increase in drought and human activities, which will increase the number of unprecedented days
Constantin, Anemona. "Changement de régime et genèse d’une nouvelle histoire officielle : combats autour du passé fasciste et communiste en Roumanie après 1989". Thesis, Paris 10, 2019. http://www.theses.fr/2019PA100086.
The fall of Nicolae Ceauşescu in 1989 led to strong intellectual mobilizations for the condemnation of the communist regime in Romania in a political context where the state was run by a group of former members of the nomenklatura. Initially the claims for the condemnation of the past were marginalized, but in the mid-2000s a new official discourse of criminalization emerged, strongly supported by historians. Two years before, the Romanian President had recognized the participation of Romania to the Holocaust during the Second World War. This thesis questions the political and intellectual mobilizations that took place after 1989 around the interpretation of the national history. It shows how an expert field of institutions specialized in dealing with the communist and the fascist past participate to the democratic legitimization of the new political regime
Mellet, Jean-François. "Le régime contemporain de l'attribution et du changement de nom au Québec : le "grand bond en evant" d'une institution de droit civil?" Thesis, McGill University, 2000. http://digitool.Library.McGill.CA:80/R/?func=dbin-jump-full&object_id=31171.
Tisseuil, Clément. "Modéliser l'impact du changement climatique sur les écosystèmes aquatiques par approche de downscaling". Toulouse 3, 2009. http://thesesups.ups-tlse.fr/763/.
This thesis aimed at assessing the impact of global change on freshwater ecosystems during the 21st century in the Adour Garonne area (SW France). A downscaling approach was developed linking techniques from climate, hydro-chemical and ecological sciences. The main results suggest an increase of high flows in winter as well as more severe low flows in summer. Nitrogen concentrations and thermophile fish species distribution may also increase. Reducing green house gas emissions and modifying agricultural practices (e. G reducing nitrate fertilizers) could reduce the intensity of ecological disturbances. This study is an original contribution to the management of future hydrological and ecological resources
Rau, Lavado Pedro. "Variabilité du régime des précipitations, des débits et des bilans hydriques le long du versant pacifique péruvien : influence du phénomène ENSO et sensibilité au changement hydroclimatique". Thesis, Toulouse 3, 2017. http://www.theses.fr/2017TOU30249/document.
Climate variability and associated extreme events as El Niño phenomenon (ENSO) represent the most difficult episodes to deal with along the Peruvian Pacific slope and coast. In addition, a growing water concern takes place since seventies. In-depth documentation of precipitation and runoff regimes becomes a key part in any water management plan and this research offers the first hydroclimatic variability study at monthly and annual time step in the study area over the last four decades (1970?2010 period). First, an exhaustive database treatment was carried out overcoming some limitations due to Andean geographical conditions. Second, precipitation regime was studied with a regionalization approach under non-stationary time-series conditions. A combined process consisting in k-means clustering and regional vector methodology was proposed. Nine regions were identified with a homogeneous precipitation regime following a latitudinal and altitudinal gradient. Third, a hydroclimatic balance is done at catchment-scale addressing the issue of climate and anthropogenization and their potential influences over hydroclimatic time series. The theoretical Budyko-Zhang framework was used and allowed identifying 11 out of 26 catchments with both low climate and anthropogenization influence (i.e. unimpaired conditions). This hypothesis was verified with the use of land use and land cover remote sensing products as MODIS and LBA imagery. Then, runoff regime was studied under unimpaired conditions and an extension over 49 catchments of the Peruvian Pacific drainage was done. A regional runoff model is proposed via two conceptual lumped models at annual and monthly time scale (GR1A and GR2M respectively). A Differential Split-Sample Test (DSST) was used to cope with modelling robustness over contrasted climate conditions as dry and wet years according to the semi-arid conditions. These results also showed an increasing regional discharge from arid Peruvian Pacific coast towards the Pacific Ocean. Finally, the scope of the thesis covers (1) a revisitation of ENSO/precipitation relationship considering the regionalized precipitation and several ENSO indices in order to discriminate the influence of the two types of El Niño (the eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño and the central Pacific (CP) El Niño) as well as the influence of large-scale atmospheric variability associated with the Madden and Julian Oscillation, and of regional oceanic conditions. The proposed methodology consisting in principal component analysis, wavelets and coherence, running correlations and spatial covariance analysis, highlights the significant decadal modulation with the larger ENSO impact in particular in the 2000s, ENSO/precipitation relationship reverses compared to the previous decade. The two dominant co-variability modes between sea surface temperature in the tropical Atlantic and Pacific oceans and the nine regions show salient features of the ENSO influence: increased precipitation over downstream regions in northern Peru during EP El Niño and decreased precipitation over upstream regions along the Pacific slope during CP El Niño events. (2) The sensitivity to hydroclimatic change is explored by hydroclimatic trend analysis as changes indicators of regional hydroclimatology. According to significant upward trends in annual temperature found in all catchments, results showed a significant warming in the study area with a mean of 0.2°C per decade. Also, changes in trajectories in the Budyko space (i.e. direction and magnitude) over the 11 selected catchments revealed that six catchments were shown to be sensitive to climate variability (i.e. likely with high sensitivity to future climate) and land use changes, where precipitation and temperature are the main drivers of these environments changes
Krakovský, Roman. "L' espace et le temps dans un régime autoritaire : la Tchécoslovaquie 1948-1989". Paris 1, 2012. http://www.theses.fr/2012PA010684.
Olmedo, Alexandra. "Politiques de stabilisation, fluctuations conjoncturelles, et non-linéarités". Cergy-Pontoise, 2006. http://www.theses.fr/2006CERG0311.
This thesis is an empirical research on business cycle asymmetries in the conduct and transmission of monetary policy. By business cycle asymmetries, we refer to differences between the expansion and recession phases of the business cycle. Chapter 1 is a survey of the literature existing on the Taylor rule, and provides an answer to the question whether the Taylor rule should be used as a normative or positive tool. Chapter 2 estimates this rule using a markov-switching model pour five OECD economies. Chapter 3 proposes a survey of theoretical and empirical literature regarding the asymmetrical effects (sign, size and cycle) of monetary policy on the economic activity. Chapter 4 introduces models using markov-switching autoregressive vectors (VAR-MS), our definition of the impulse-response function to non-linear shocks, as well as results of Monte-Carlo simulations, evidencing the superiority of our definition compared to the other two existing in the literature. Chapter 5 studies the business cycle asymmetries through the traditional interest rate channel using a VAR-MS estimated for the U. S. Economy. Chapter 6 analyses the business cycle asymmetries through the credit channel using a VAR-MS model estimated for the Euro-zone economy. Results from the last two chapters are in line with the findings of theoretical literature
Grelier, Benjamin. "Aléa climatique et régime hydrologique dans le bassin transnational de la Meuse : co-variabilité, changements possibles et impact sur les débordements". Thesis, Université de Lorraine, 2017. http://www.theses.fr/2017LORR0243/document.
Climate change requires to adapt management of streamflow extremes (floods and low flows). Our researches provide a framework to analyze climate change effect on the streamflow extremes in the transnational Meuse river basin, through a modelling chain (atmospheric model – hydrological model – hydraulic model) linking the pressure gradient force to the flow at the outlet of a basin. The climate forcing is obtained by blending historical data and multi-model data for the CMIP5 experience. By forcing two sub-basins of the Meuse river (located in France and Belgium) with the potential climate variability, we show that flood and low flows indices as well as river overflowing might be strongly impacted by the anthropogenic climate change. This analysis of catchment vulnerability is a robust tool to test climate resiliency of adaptation strategies for water management
Bykalyuk, Anna. "Contribution à l'étude des échanges convectifs à l'interface fluide paroi en présence de matériaux à changement de phase : Application au bâtiment". Thesis, Lyon, INSA, 2014. http://www.theses.fr/2014ISAL0132/document.
Recent experimental studies have shown that the usual values of the convective heat transfer coefficient h are no longer valid in the presence of phase change materials. Three separate models were developed. Initially a model 1 which treats the fluid-wall (constant temperature) interaction in steady laminar flow has been developed and validated. Then, the wall with heat capacity (model 2) subjected to an air temperature ramp were studied. Finally, a third model (3) has been developed which treats the interaction fluid-wall which contains a phase change material. The results show local peaks of heat flow over time. This fact reflects the phase change inside the wall. Moreover, the curves of the convective heat transfer coefficient indicate the dependence of the coefficient h to the wall’s energy storage capacity. Therefore, the presence of the phase change materials within a wall effect and changes the shape of the thermal boundary layer
Shi, Yujie. "Réponse des groupes microbiens impliques dans la dynamique de l'azote du sol aux facteurs du changement global et aux incendies". Thesis, Lyon, 2019. http://www.theses.fr/2019LYSE1254.
The impact of global environmental changes on the diversity and functioning of terrestrial ecosystems has received increasing attention. Many studies evaluated the effects of single -and less often multiple- global change factors on soil N cycling processes in grasslands. However, these studies have not recognized that altered precipitation regime also has an influence on wet N deposition regime. Further, the response of grassland soil N cycling to co-occurring multiple global change factors and disturbance like fire, and how N cycling response to fire could differ under different global change scenarios, remains unclear. This strongly restricts our ability to understand and predict global change effect on grasslands. In this work, two experiments were conducted: (i) a mesocosm experiment to assess the combined effects of increased N deposition and changes in both the amount and frequency of rainfall on soil N cycling in a semi-arid Monsoon grassland; and (ii) an in situ experiment to assess the combined effects of elevated CO2, warming, increased precipitation, N deposition and fire on soil N cycling in a Mediterranean grassland. This allows studying the -possibly interactive- effects of several global change factors on the abundances of soil N-cycling microbial communities. The microbial groups studied were ammonia oxidizing bacteria and archaea (AOB and AOA, respectively), nirK- and nirS-nitrite reducers, nosZI- and nosZII-N2O reducers, plus Nitrobacter and Nitrospira for the Mediterranean grassland. The main results and conclusions are: 1)The responses of different groups of soil (de)nitrifiers to global change scenarios differed strongly regardless the grassland type. AOB were mostly driven by N. In contrast, AOA were more sensitive to soil water dynamics than N dynamics in both grasslands. Nitrobacter abundance was mostly affected by global change factors through their effects on AOB abundance, whereas Nitrospira abundance was more related to changes of AOA in the Mediterranean grassland. Similarly, nirK- and nirS-harboring nitrite reducers and nosZI-harboring N2O reducers were more sensitive to N deposition than nosZII-harboring N2O reducers, and nirK- and nirS-bacteria positively responded to reduced precipitation. This highlights niche differentiation between them and indicates that the balance between them may be altered in the future; 2)In the Mediterranean grassland, where high N deposition was simulated by two N addition events each year, the N effect dominated global change effects. In contrast, in the Monsson grassland, chronic wet N deposition did not increase denitrifier abundance and only weakly increased soil N2O emissions. This was explained by the efficient capture of added N by the dominant grass species and by the increased plant growth leading to increased transpiration and decreased soil moisture. 3)For both grasslands, the interaction between global change factors on soil N cycling could not be predicted simply by studying the effects of one or two factors. These interactive effects were explained by effects on key environmental variables like soil moisture, mineral N availability, pH and belowground plant growth.These results demonstrates the limitation of predicting how (de)nitrifiers respond to global change scenarios involving multiple factors only from studying single factor effects. Particularly, interactive effects were observed between N deposition, decreased precipitation amount and altered precipitation frequency in the Monsoon grassland; and between fire, N deposition, warming, elevated precipitation and elevated CO2 in the Mediterranean grassland. This calls for more comprehensive studies in the global change biology domain. Modelling and evaluating the generality of these complex interaction effects is thus a high priority for research to predict the responses of soil N cycling processes to global change and feedbacks on climate in the future
Engelhardt, Ilonka. "Impact of changing precipitation patterns on the plant-microbial response to rewetting". Thesis, Bourgogne Franche-Comté, 2018. http://www.theses.fr/2018UBFCK017/document.
Water availability governs terrestrial nutrient cycles by impacting the functioning of both plants and of soil microorganisms. The predicted changes in precipitation patterns (i.e. the magnitude and frequency of precipitation events) associated with climate change, will thus likely have important consequences on ecosystem functioning. Dry and seasonally dry ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to changes in precipitation patterns, as they are already constrained to a large extent by water availability. However, more mesic systems may also experience dry periods that may impact plant-soil functions. In this thesis, experiments in soil-only systems and plant-soil systems were used to gain insight into how the legacy effects of several weeks of exposure to contrasted precipitation patterns set the scene for the rewetting response of the system. First, in an experiment using soil-only mesocosms, we evaluated the effects of contrasting precipitation regimes on the actively growing as well as the inactive bacterial and fungal communities 2 and 5 days after rewetting, using an 18O-SIP (stable isotope probing) approach by applying H218O followed by metagenomics targeting soil bacteria and fungi. Second, we performed two separate and complementary experiments using plant-soil mesocosms with wheat plant cover. The first plant-soil experiment focused on soil depth. It determined the effects of contrasting precipitation patterns on the flux of C from plants to microbes and the microbial response to rewetting at different soil depths, using a heavy isotope tracer approach (13C-CO2) and 18O-SIP with metagenomics respectively. The second plant-soil experiment evaluated the effects of a history of contrasting precipitation patterns on the dynamics of the rewetting response of the plant-soil system over time (over 29 hours post-rewetting). In addition, two levels of N inputs allowed to determine how N availability modulated plant-soil responses. The response of the potentially active soil bacterial and fungal communities to rewetting was assessed using targeted metagenomics. The responses of biogeochemical cycles were evaluated using heavy isotope tracers (13C-CO2 and 15N-NO3-) to quantify C flux from plants to soil microorganisms and plant-microbial competition for N over time post-rewetting.We found that precipitation patterns shaped plant morphology and physiology, microbial community composition as well as soil N cycling in our systems, which set contrasting scenes for the rewetting responses in our systems. In particular, infrequent precipitation patterns (cycles of longer dry periods followed by larger magnitude rain events) resulted in increased microbial N transformation potentials and smaller inorganic N pools. The rewetting responses were determined by evaluating C dynamics (plant-microbial coupling and soil CO2 efflux rate), N dynamics (plant-microbial competition for N and soil N2O efflux rate) and microbial dynamics (composition of active and potentially active bacterial and fungal communities after rewetting). First, we found that plant-microbial coupling (i.e the microbial assimilation of C from fresh photosynthate) may be reduced under more infrequent precipitation patterns, especially near the soil surface, and under conditions of low N availability. Our findings also suggest that whilst in soil-only systems, dead microbial cells appear to be a major source fuelling soil CO2 efflux pulse upon rewetting, in plant-soil systems root respiration plays an important role in the magnitude of the CO2 efflux upon rewetting. Second, concerning soil N dynamics, we found, in concurrence with previous studies, that soil microorganisms were the stronger competitor for N over short time scales, likely due to their overall fast response rates and high affinity for substrate, whilst plants outcompeted soil microbes for soil N assimilation, over longer time scales likely taking advantage of the fast microbial turnover (...)
Aykut, Stefan Cihan. "Comment gouverner un 'nouveau risque mondial' ? : la construction du changement climatique comme problème public à l'échelle globale, européenne, en France et en Allemagne". Phd thesis, Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales (EHESS), 2012. http://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00757106.
Ruffault, Julien. "Sécheresse et incendies en Languedoc-Roussillon dans un contexte de changements globaux : approche régionale par modélisation". Thesis, Montpellier 2, 2012. http://www.theses.fr/2012MON20033/document.
Climate and socio-economic changes in the Mediterranean region are expected to affect the functioning of forested ecosystems (increased drought) and the disturbance regime (wildfire). The interactions between vegetation, drought, fire regime and human activities were studied at regional scale in the Languedoc-Roussillon region (LR; Southern France) from observations over recent decades (1971-2006) and climate scenarios for the end of the 21st century (2071-2100). Recent climate changes in the LR region are characterized by an increase in drought conditions with a high spatial variability. These climate changes modified the features of the major drought period in forested ecosystems (increasing intensity, shifting seasonality). However, despite this increase in fire prone conditions, a new policy of fire suppression started in 1987 led to a decrease in the number of fire starts and burnt areas in LR region. This policy also changed the relative contribution of factors explaining fire spread, which previously mainly controlled by the water status of vegetation, are now determined by the co-occurrence of drought and windy events. Furthermore, our results could quantify the relative contribution of the spatial patterns of human activities (infrastructure density, forest habitat interface), vegetation (composition, fuel continuity) and weather on the regional distribution of fires. Thus, predictions on the future fire regime in the region should be mainly controlled by changes in human activities and settlements, as well as climate forecasts and their related uncertainty in downscaling methods, which have a significant impact on predictions of drought of forested ecosystems
Degryse, Joris. "Le régime juridique du climat". Université Robert Schuman (Strasbourg) (1971-2008), 2008. http://www.theses.fr/2008STR30003.
The present thesis originates from the observation of the discrepancy between the universal nature of global warming and the decentralized structure of the international society. Humanity as a whole faces a serious threat, which has the peculiarity of being universal in its consequences, as well as in its causes. This means that its prevention requires the cooperation of all States. At the same time, there is no higher authority able to impose cooperation in order to prevent or deal with the adverse effects of climate change. Therefore, the question arises of how to promote and organise this cooperation. For the lawyer, the question is mainly whether this undertaking is possible, within the voluntarist framework of international law. However, the object of this research is not the international legal order itself. It is not a matter of dealing, at least directly, with its characteristics or its evolution in the face of the new demands of a world whose finite character is ever more obvious. Nor is it a matter of making an exhaustive presentation of the rules adopted to deal with global warming. More modestly, the aim of this work is to examine the adopted rules, particularly in the Treaties, in the light of the constraints imposed on the cooperation of States by the decentralized structure of international law. This is a research on multilateral cooperation in the fight against global warming, from a legal perspective. It aims to clarify the constraints that the principle of sovereignty imposes on such cooperation, to identify the solutions that have been adopted as a remedy and to assess their merits with the hope of contributing to the development of a fully universal climate legal regime regime by reinforcing their intelligibility. The present work, therefore, sought to clarify the concept of climate legal regime by presenting it in a systematic way. To this end, this thesis stresses the duality of the relationship between the climate legal regime and the cooperation of States. As a first step, it presents how States have developed and can consolidate the climate regime itself. In a second step, it looks at how the climate regime regulates the Parties' climate policies. In order to carry out this task, the approach adopted is twofold. First, it is genetic by examining the relationship between the rules adopted and the legal policies from which they result. The approach is then analytic by the analysis of the legal techniques that have succeeded during the negotiations, in terms of their intrinsic characteristics and of their background in international law
Zhukova, Olga. "Agenda politique et régime de genre : comparaison socio historique des évolutions en Russie et en France". Thesis, Bordeaux 4, 2013. http://www.theses.fr/2013BOR40020/document.
This thesis discusses the gender order of two national cases studies – Russia and France. The current situations with regards to gender order are specific to each country and have evolved from differing contexts. However, this thesis proposes that the development of gender order has passed through similar stages, both in Russia and France, despite different historical backgrounds and political systems. In addition, it is proposed that resemblances in the development of gender order are primarily affected by public policy in both countries which supports an order of gender equality. This politically-influenced gender inequality is reflected by the political structure which forms a pyramid structure. The gender order model provides a heuristic theoretical framework in which to analyse gender-relations in the contemporary societies and institutions of each country; along with the opportunity to examine gender-relations from an historical perspective. The aim of this research is to investigate the different facets of the development of gender-relations within a political context in Russia and France. The research methodology incorporates a consideration of the theoretical background to gender-relations, the impact of each country’s development on gender order from an historical viewpoint, and reviews of contemporary case studies. Importantly, a comparative study of this kind allows the idea of national identity to be appraised from an objective viewpoint
Ouro-Bodi, Ouro-Gnaou. "Les Etats et la protection internationale de l'environnement : la question du changement climatique". Thesis, Bordeaux, 2014. http://www.theses.fr/2014BORD0228/document.
Climate change has become the scourge environmental concern and mobilizes more theinternational community. The outcome of this mobilization remains probably the implementation ofinternational climate change regime for which the Climate Convention and the Kyoto Protocol are the legalbases. This system is innovative in that it sets quantified emission reduction commitments for greenhouse gasemissions (GHG) for polluters States, but also in that it establishes mechanisms known as of “flexibility”whose implementation is accompanied by a control based on a Committee known as of “compliance”. Butdespite all this normative production, it is regrettable that today the international climate regime is a realfailure. Indeed, if the mobilization of states is no doubt, however, the same states that have voluntarily agreedto engage deliberately refuse to honour their commitments for essentially political, economic and strategicreasons. This work therefore aims to shed light on the causes of this failure by developing a mixed record ofthe first Kyoto commitment ended period in 2012, and offers prospects for a legal regime of the post-Kyotoclimate and efficient, able to be up to the challenges
Dubois, Mélodie. "Effets combinés de la pêche et des perturbations naturelles sur la dynamique des écosystèmes coralliens". Thesis, Paris Sciences et Lettres (ComUE), 2019. http://www.theses.fr/2019PSLEP021.
Coral reef provides coastal communities with vital and valuable ecosystem services, such as food and coastal protection, sources of income, and contribute to their societal and cultural identity. However, coral reef ecosystems are subjected to a combination of increasing natural disturbance regimes and increasing multiple human stressors. This may cause irreversible shifts in community structure and, thus, in the delivery of ecosystem services. Understanding the dynamics of these state shifts is fundamental to sustainably manage coral reef social-ecological systems. The overarching goal of this PhD thesis is to better develop system modeling methods to better inform sustainability management. We used two main modeling approaches: Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE) and Agent Based Modeling. We used the coral reef social-ecological system of Moorea, French Polynesia, as a case study. Firstly, we collected and integrated various ecological and social data to build three food web models of Moorea, before, during and after a natural disturbance-driven coral mortality. Then, we used an ecosystem network approach to assess recovery pathways of that coral reef ecosystem. We showed that, while benthic communities recovered in a decade after the disturbance, the ecosystem as a whole presented a recovery debt. To investigate how fisheries dynamics interact with this ecosystem dynamic, we developed a dynamic food web model that revisits a natural disturbance regime under different fishing scenarios. We showed that indirect effect of fisheries can maintain intermediate level of fished populations, thus buffering the impact of the disturbance regime on local society. Finally, to better predict local fisheries management initiatives, we developed an agent-based model that accounts for more realist fisheries dynamics. We showed that a network of Marine Protected Areas (MPA) could in the long-term benefit both marine resources and fisheries production, but under a scenario without disturbance regime. Some of our results give new insights on how both natural disturbances and fisheries activities interact to shape coral reef ecosystems
Lemand, (suleimann) Ryan. "Indices boursiers internationaux et la crise des nouvelles technologies : approches switching et DCC-MVGARCH". Phd thesis, École normale supérieure de Cachan - ENS Cachan, 2003. http://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00287357.
Daumas, Philippe. "Familles en révolution : 1775-1825 : recherches sur les comportements familiaux des populations rurales d'Ile-de-France : de l'Ancien Régime à la Restauration". Rennes 2, 2002. http://books.openedition.org/pur/17525.
The revolutionary laws on family belonged to a regenerating undertaking whose goal was not only to destroy the Ancient Regime institutions but also to change man himself, in order to make this change irreversible. Did this policy ; which put into question life customs and mentalities in line with a " long time process ", have real effects on the people's living conditions ? Observing family life in eleven villages of Ile-de-France between 1775 and 1825 through many sources (such as registers of births and catholic community, notarial and judicial archives) shows the importance of the changes that took place in the cultural practices. The major consequence of the French Revolution was the decline of the religious hold on family everyday life. This made it possible for the people to express a greater indivudual freedom in many parts of their life ; for instance, the choice of the husband or wife, choice of the children's first name, sex out of marriageAs the principle of freedom imposed itself more than the one of equality, the increasing individualism modified the family relations by favouring the personal links and the feelings over the collective constraints. Although still a minority, the innovative attitudes advanced, and most of all, spread to all the social classes. However, changes and continuities seemed to be less struggling than coexisting in a complex and often ambiguous relationship. These developments were not linear. After the cultural changes imposed by the Revolution, came a period of partial backward tendency, linked to the napoleonic policy. But the years 1810-1815 marked the beginning of a new wave of change, checked by almost all of the indicators. This " second cultural revolution ", whose actors appeared to be the children of the Revolution, seemed to be deep and irreversible
Ag, Atteynine Solimane. "Changement climatique et rongeurs ravageurs des cultures : effet attractif des cultures de saison sèche sur les espèces du genre Arvicanthis au Mali". Thesis, Aix-Marseille, 2017. http://www.theses.fr/2017AIXM0130.
In Mali, during the dry season, there is the issue of the attractive effect of dry season crops on rodent pests, which would be all the more marked in the latitudinal gradient of Sudan-Sahel aridity GECS (1100 mm to 200 mm). These hypotheses are tested in the genus Arvicanthis (A.ansorgei, A. niloticus). The results of the previous cytogenetic survey 1994-1999 and an expanded survey 2009-2014 reveal recent changes in the distribution areas of both species; suggesting a strong role of their chronobiological adaptation in the determinism of their distribution. This horizontal approach followed by a vertical approach (2009-2016) compares four indicators of the attractiveness of the CSS vs. the MNC in the five climatic regions of GECS (Sikasso, Koulikoro, Ségou, Mopti, Gao). The population densities of both species are higher in the CSS vs. the MNC; and this attractiveness of the CSS increases with aridity in the area of A. niloticus. The ratio of "migratory strategists" within populations demonstrates the buffering effect of the CSS and confirms the frequency of these episodes. The diet study confirms their phytophagous diet. In a natural environment, aridity induces a decrease in the consumption of plants compensated by that of non-orthopterous Arthropods; and the diversity of plants consumed decreases with aridity in A.ansorgei vs increases with aridity in A. niloticus. The buffering effect of CSS "neutralizes" inter-specific differences, and in both species, in the CSS, the diversity of weeds consumed decreases to the detriment of crops, especially rice and the consumption in the Orthoptera increases
Olteanu, Madalina. "Modèles à changements de régime : applications aux données financières". Phd thesis, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - Paris I, 2006. http://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00133132.
On propose d'étudier ces questions à travers deux approches. Dans la première, il s'agit de montrer la consistance faible d'un estimateur de maximum de vraisemblance pénalisée sous des conditions de stationnarité et dépendance faible. Les hypothèses introduites sur l'entropie à crochets de la classe des fonctions scores généralisés sont ensuite vérifiées dans un cadre linéaire et gaussien. La deuxième approche, plutôt empirique, est issue des méthodes de classification non-supervisée et combine les cartes de Kohonen avec une classification hiérarchique pour laquelle une nouvelle dispersion basée sur la somme des carrés résiduelle est introduite.
Phan, Denis. "Régimes et changements structurels : essais d'économie historique". Orléans, 2002. http://www.theses.fr/2002ORLE0511.
Claisse, Christophe. "Les pulsations de la mobilité en entreprise : entre reconfiguration d’un marché interne et constitution d’un régime d’épreuve à la mobilité professionnelle". Thesis, Paris, Institut d'études politiques, 2017. http://www.theses.fr/2017IEPP0001/document.
The focus of the thesis is the study of a support mechanism for employee mobility in a former state owned public administration that became a limited company. Carried out in the financial centres of La Banque Postale, the ethnographic inquiry combines qualitative interviews with workplace observations in order to analyse both career mobility as a subjective combination of life sequences, and professional mobility as a way of managing people in a firm in a state of transformation. In a context where both employment policies and human resources management systems tend towards individualized actions (Gazier, 2010), the thesis offers an analysis of professional mobility within an organized and structured context that highlights the normative nature of an injunction to self-realization through work. It emphasizes the multidimensional nature of bargainings involved in the course of mobility (on a biographical level, on the use - and misuse - of management tools, on the role played by managers or the collective framework negotiated by Trade Unions). Thus, the thesis dissolves the dichotomous categories used to describe professional careers (imposed or chosen mobility) by showing that so-called imposed mobility can be the expression of true career choices to serve a life project and that so-called chosen mobility may be fundamentally constraining. Finally, the thesis shows that the relationship maintained by individuals with their career and the use they make of professional mobility as a tool in order to achieve it, is far more decisive
Brulé, Antoine. "L'interposition des tiers dans le contrat". Thesis, Paris 2, 2017. http://www.theses.fr/2017PA020020.
Antinomic seems to be the most appropriate expression for translating the relations between the notions of third parties and contracts. However, this approach must be overcome since the objective right offers third parties various legal techniques enabling them to integrate the contract. The subject of third party intervention in the contract finds its most successful translation in the figure of the change of contracting party. However, it is dependent on various legal operations to three people. Each of these techniques claims to constitute the legal node of the figure of the change of contracting party. However, it is not a question of seeking the existence of an original mechanism for replacing the contractor in the formation of the contract and / or in the execution of the contract. This contribution aims to propose a new basis for these operations. Now, the notion of interposition has the capacity to subsume all these techniques. Drawing its sources from financial law, it legally translates the phenomenon of integration of third parties into the contractual relationship and more precisely the figure of change of contracting party. This contribution is therefore intended to make the notion of interposition accessible to the rank of autonomous qualification. To do this, it is necessary to identify the contours and the characteristics of the system and then examine its legal regime
Khemiri, Rim. "Changement de régimes et microstructure du marché : une approche markovienne". Aix-Marseille 2, 2008. http://www.theses.fr/2008AIX24002.
Ouaret, Rachid. "Déterminants et prévision des fluctuations de la concentration en polluants dans un environnement intérieur". Thesis, Paris Est, 2016. http://www.theses.fr/2016PESC1141/document.
The time fluctuation features of particulate concentrations in a real occupied indoor environment are strongly dependent of several parameters and in particular the occupation and occupants’ activities and behaviors. These parameters considerably alter the statistical variability of the time series dynamics. These fluctuations are rarely available and described in the literature. These types of fluctuations are rarely available and described in the literature. The availability of continuous measurements of concentrations of formaldehyde and particulate matter (from 0.35 to 20 µm of diameter) in an indoor environment (office and a test house) during several months with a fine time resolution (from 1 min to 1 hour) permitted to initiate a process of reflection on the nature of these fluctuations and their predictability. The aim of the thesis follows three main axis of research: (i) characterizing indoor environment pollutant concentrations variability; (ii) revealing the sources of variability of these fluctuations and (iii) forecasting the pollutant concentrations in a real indoor environment. The first axis concerns the determination of the common features shared by the different pollutants. The second axis focuses on the sources variability estimating using a Blind Source Separation (BSS) approach. Lastly, the third axis focuses on the forecasting of pollutant concentrations. The time series analysis for this type of data (high frequency) should take into account the time scale on which microstructures evolve. Several tools were employed, such as the spectral analysis (long-range dependency by fractal dimension measures and R/S statistic), the omega-predictability, as well as the time series decomposition into latent components by STL (Seasonal Trend Decomposition using Loess), SSA (Singular Spectrum Analysis) and SBD (Spectral Band Decomposition).The identification of the sources of particles concentrations is developed using BSS based methods which are based on a matrix factorization as profiles and contributions under a statistical independence constraint (ICA) or a non-negativity constraint (NNMF or PMF). The factorizations were applied to the matrix of the time series of different particle size bins. Some profiles or source contributions could be interpreted using exogenous variables as fingerprints of some sources (such as CO2 concentrations used as indicator of the “occupation”).Concerning the pollutant concentrations forecasting, the model selection was made in agreement with the time series structures, highlighted in the characterization stage. One can notice better performances forecasts when using the series having been preprocessed by decomposition: STL, SSA or decomposition in spectral bands (based Transform Fourier), SBD. Several types of stochastic models (linear or nonlinear) were then applied to these components and the final forecast result is given by their combination. A special type of nonlinearities involving a special treatment is the abrupt concentration changes in time series concentrations due mainly to windows manipulation and graft on the regular evolution of the dynamic system. A new type of forecast models has been developed in adequacy with the requirements of the nature of high-frequency data. This model combine spectral band decomposition step (SBD) coupled with a modeling stage based on autoregressive switching threshold model (TAR) or chaos dynamic: FFT- (TAR / Chaos).The results show that the pretreatment by spectral band decomposition or STL improves significantly formaldehyde and fine particles concentrations forecast on 10-hour horizon for formaldehyde (sampled every minute) and on a horizon of 1 to 4 days for the particles (sampled every hour), depending on their size bins
Charara, Issam. "La congélation en tant que changement mécanique d'une structure élastoplastique". Marne-la-vallée, ENPC, 1991. http://www.theses.fr/1991ENPC9103.
Kebdani, Mohamed. "Modélisation dynamique basée sur l'approche bond graph d'une boucle fluide diphasique à pompage mécanique avec validation expérimentale". Thesis, Ecole centrale de Lille, 2016. http://www.theses.fr/2016ECLI0009/document.
This thesis is part of the collaborative project FUI THERMOFLUIDE-RT involving major groups (Zodiac DS, Safran Hispano, and MBDA), SMEs (Atmostat Alcen, ADR, AER, ControlSys) and five laboratories (CRIStAL Ecole Centrale de Lille, LML Arts et Métiers Paris Tech, LEGI Grenoble, LMT ENS Cachan, CEA-Liten Grenoble). The main purpose is to study a new electronic cooling system. The technology chosen consists of a two-phase fluid loop mechanically pumped (TPLMP). The thesis deals with the dynamic modeling and experimental validation of the cooling components. The developed dynamic model allows to predict the efficiency of the cooling loop, to conduct the study of transitional regimes, and provides an original tool dedicated to design the loop components. The bond graph methodology is adopted because of the multi physics character of the studied components. First, the basic issues and the industrial context are presented. This allows to introduce the chosen solution (TPLMP). The objectives of the thesis are described. Then, a description of the rig test is proposed. The following three chapters are devoted to a theoretical and experimental study of the loop equipment. Each chapter begins with a state of the art on modeling and correlations of the heat exchange coefficients and losses. A second part of the chapter describes phenomena and equations. A third part is dedicated to the experimental validation. A final chapter presents the coupling works of dynamic models validated separately. Finally, a summary of all contributions is made. Prospects for future developments in short and medium term are proposed
Rioublanc, Stéphanie. "Modèles à changements de régimes markoviens : détection des régimes, mémoire courte ou mémoire longue et prévision". Cachan, Ecole normale supérieure, 2005. http://www.theses.fr/2005DENS0013.
This thesis deals with Markov switching models. We investigate the possible detection of several states inside data issued from simulated Markov switching models aid of various empiricals estimators. We also study the long or short memory behavior of those models and compare their forecast performance with that of long memory models
Ly, Vath Vathana. "Quelques applications du contrôle stochastique aux options réelles et au risque de liquidité". Phd thesis, Université Paris-Diderot - Paris VII, 2006. http://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00119754.
Shapiro, Roberta. "Système matrimonial et changement social : la dot en Grèce". Paris 10, 1985. http://www.theses.fr/1985PA100101.