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Oshiro, Ken, Keii Gi, Shinichiro Fujimori, Heleen L. van Soest, Christoph Bertram, Jacques Després, Toshihiko Masui, Pedro Rochedo, Mark Roelfsema e Zoi Vrontisi. "Mid-century emission pathways in Japan associated with the global 2 °C goal: national and global models’ assessments based on carbon budgets". Climatic Change 162, n. 4 (20 luglio 2019): 1913–27. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-019-02490-x.
Testo completoAbstract (sommario):
Abstract This study assesses Japan’s mid-century low-emission pathways using both national and global integrated assessment models in the common mitigation scenario framework, based on the carbon budgets corresponding to the global 2 °C goal. We examine high and low budgets, equal to global cumulative 1600 and 1000 Gt-CO2 (2011–2100) for global models, and 36 and 31 Gt-CO2 (2011–2050) in Japan for national models, based on the cost-effectiveness allocation performed by the global models. The impacts of near-term policy assumption, including the implementation and enhancement of the 2030 target of the nationally determined contribution (NDC), are also considered. Our estimates show that the low budget scenarios require a 75% reduction of CO2 emissions by 2050 below the 2010 level, which is nearly the same as Japan’s governmental 2050 goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 80%. With regard to near-term actions, Japan’s 2030 target included in the NDC is on track to meet the high budget scenario, whereas it is falling short for the low budget scenario, which would require emission reductions immediately after 2020. Whereas models differ in the type of energy source on which they foresee Japan basing its decarbonization process (e.g., nuclear- or variable renewable energy-dependent), the large-scale deployment of low-carbon energy (nuclear, renewable, and carbon capture and storage) is shared across most models in both the high and low budget scenarios. By 2050, low-carbon energy represents 44–54% of primary energy and 86–97% of electricity supply in the high and low budget scenarios, respectively.
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Yanagi, Tetsuo. "Budget Models in the Coastal Sea." Oceanography in Japan 6, n. 3 (1997): 163–71. http://dx.doi.org/10.5928/kaiyou.6.163.
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Havis, Robert N., e David W. Ostendorf. "Approximate Dynamic Lake Phosphorus Budget Models". Journal of Environmental Engineering 115, n. 4 (agosto 1989): 809–21. http://dx.doi.org/10.1061/(asce)0733-9372(1989)115:4(809).
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Bhattacharya, Debopam. "The Empirical Content of Binary Choice Models". Econometrica 89, n. 1 (2021): 457–74. http://dx.doi.org/10.3982/ecta16801.
Testo completoAbstract (sommario):
An important goal of empirical demand analysis is choice and welfare prediction on counterfactual budget sets arising from potential policy interventions. Such predictions are more credible when made without arbitrary functional‐form/distributional assumptions, and instead based solely on economic rationality, that is, that choice is consistent with utility maximization by a heterogeneous population. This paper investigates nonparametric economic rationality in the empirically important context of binary choice. We show that under general unobserved heterogeneity, economic rationality is equivalent to a pair of Slutsky‐like shape restrictions on choice‐probability functions. The forms of these restrictions differ from Slutsky inequalities for continuous goods. Unlike McFadden–Richter's stochastic revealed preference, our shape restrictions (a) are global, that is, their forms do not depend on which and how many budget sets are observed, (b) are closed form, hence easy to impose on parametric/semi/nonparametric models in practical applications, and (c) provide computationally simple, theory‐consistent bounds on demand and welfare predictions on counterfactual budge sets.
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Szeto, K. K., H. Tran, M. D. MacKay, R. Crawford e R. E. Stewart. "The MAGS Water and Energy Budget Study". Journal of Hydrometeorology 9, n. 1 (1 febbraio 2008): 96–115. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2007jhm810.1.
Testo completoAbstract (sommario):
Abstract This study represents the first attempt at developing a comprehensive climatology of atmospheric and surface water and energy budgets for the Mackenzie River basin (MRB). Different observed, remotely sensed, (re)analyzed, and modeled datasets were used to obtain independent estimates of the budgets. In particular, assimilated datasets, including the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Global Reanalysis 2 (NCEP-R2), the global 40-yr European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Re-Analysis (ERA-40), the NCEP North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR), and the Canadian Meteorological Centre (CMC) operational regional analysis as well as results from the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM) simulations, are used in the study. Apart from the development of state-of-the-art budget estimates for the MRB, the relative merits of current models, data assimilation systems, and global blended datasets in representing aspects of the water and energy cycle of this northern and data-sparse region were also assessed. In addition, the levels of uncertainty in assessing the budgets as well as their sources are discussed. The regional water budget for the MRB is closed within 10% of the observed runoff by using the moisture flux convergence from ERA-40, NARR, CMC, or CRCM. While these are noted improvements over previous water closure assessments for the region, magnitudes of the residuals in balancing the budgets are often comparable to the budget terms themselves in all the model and analysis datasets, and the spreads of budget estimates from the different datasets are also typically large, suggesting that substantial improvements to the models and observations are needed before the assessments of water and energy budgets for this northern region can be vastly improved.
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Volodina, A. O., e M. B. Trachenko. "THE ROLE OF THE BUDGETING SYSTEM IN MERGERS AND ACQUISITIONS". Vestnik Universiteta, n. 4 (27 maggio 2019): 83–88. http://dx.doi.org/10.26425/1816-4277-2019-4-83-88.
Testo completoAbstract (sommario):
The article considers the role of the budgeting system in mergers and absorption at all stages of their implementation – the search for the target company and preparation for the transaction, the process of conducting and concluding the transaction, the integration of the initiator company and the target company in the post-transaction period and describes the options for the build budget models during the integration period. The article suggests models of interaction of budgeting systems using project budgets in mergers and absorption in general, as well as in the implementation of vertical integration of companies that are parties to the transaction. It shows the role of project budgets in relationship between budget model of initiation company and target company. The advantages and disadvantages of the considered models have been highlighted.
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Траченко, Marina Trachenko, Мищенко e L. Mishchenko. "Budget Model Formation Tools for Activity and Project-Based Budgeting". Administration 3, n. 4 (10 dicembre 2015): 49–54. http://dx.doi.org/10.12737/16697.
Testo completoAbstract (sommario):
Activity-based budgeting (ABB) and project-based budgeting (project budgeting) are important
trends of budgeting at an enterprise level. The paper authors have systematized factors of formation for
directions of the activity-based and project-based budgeting, have characterized these directions’ budget
models and revealed their specific features. The main specific features of activity-based budgeting model
are the matrix (or more complex, multidimensional) structure of the budget model, interrelation of business
processes’ budget items with key performance indicators and balanced scorecards (thus the model focused
on strategy), simultaneous incorporation of financial indicators describing a business process into the
budgets of business processes, budgets of CFR (Centers for Financial Responsibility) units, or project
budgets, and a number of other specific features. The most important particulars of the project-based
budgeting model is the integration of master budgets, operational and support budgets with project budgets
within a budget model, the use of project budgets as a link between project management and budgeting
as a management technology, and others particulars. The paper authors have developed a tool for the
ABB budget model formation, which includes two algorithms. The first one is the algorithm for ABB model
formation based on the budgets of CFR acting as expense providers, from the perspective of CFR units. The
algorithm relies on the budgets of expense-providing Centers for Financial Responsibility. These Centers
control the expenses of all CFR by certain business processes and items. The second one is the algorithm
for the more detailed ABB model formation based on the budgets of business processes that are structured
for analytical purposes (other than CFR units). This algorithm is intended for building a more detailed ABB
model and implies the allocation of analytical sections like “CFR”, “Business Processes” and other analytics.
It has been proposed to use a standard project budget a as a tool to solve the problem of matching the
individual projects implementation time with the budget period. The standard budget is developed for the
project’s entire life, in conjunction with the Project Budget, the indicators of which describe the project in a
certain budget period.
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Chang, Shu-Ming, e Hsun-Hui Chen. "Applying snapback repellers in resource budget models". Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science 21, n. 4 (dicembre 2011): 043126. http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/1.3660662.
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Noonburg, E. G., R. M. Nisbet, E. Mccauley, W. S. C. Gurney, W. W. Murdoch e A. M. DE Roos. "Experimental testing of dynamic energy budget models". Functional Ecology 12, n. 2 (aprile 1998): 211–22. http://dx.doi.org/10.1046/j.1365-2435.1998.00174.x.
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Melo, D. C. D., I. S. P. Marin e E. Wendland. "Water budget comparison of global climate models and experimental data in Onça Creek basin, Brazil". Proceedings of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences 364 (16 settembre 2014): 70–75. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/piahs-364-70-2014.
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Abstract. Groundwater is an important part of the hydrological cycle, accounting for more than 25% of human needs on the global scale. As a result of aquifer overexploitation associated with climate change, even in the most conservative future climate scenarios, mean water-table levels can experience drastic drops. Although there are efforts to include groundwater dynamics in global climate models (GCMs), its influence is still not taken into full account in GCM water budgets, although it is as important as the other water sources considered. To assess the role of percolation in the water balance, we compared the water budget from climate forcing scenarios using 10 GCMs with the water budget from experimental data of a basin in São Paulo state, Brazil. We used the delta factor approach to correct the bias of the model's temperature and precipitation for a control period from 1970 to 1999, and calculated evapotranspiration using the Thornthwaite method. Experimental data for runoff and interception were derived for the basin’s representative crops (sugar cane and pasture) for both water budgets. As the GCMs ignore subsurface flow and the only input considered is precipitation and snow melt, the excess surface water is assumed to be redistributed among the other water budget components. The experimental data shows that there is enough available water for infiltration, indicating that recharge cannot be ignored in the water balance. This leads to the possibility of the models’ overestimating the other components to compensate for the ignored recharge.
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Birylo, M., Z. Rzepecka, J. Kuczynska-Siehien e J. Nastula. "Analysis of water budget prediction accuracy using ARIMA models". Water Supply 18, n. 3 (25 luglio 2017): 819–30. http://dx.doi.org/10.2166/ws.2017.156.
Testo completoAbstract (sommario):
Abstract The European Union Water Framework Directive obliges each country to monitor the groundwater level as it is an important source of drinking water, but also an important part of agriculture. A water budget is used for assessing the accuracy of the groundwater level determination. The computations of the water budget are based on evapotranspiration and the state of land surface hydrosphere. On the basis of the determined water budget, statistics and the prognosis for the next 12 months can be computed. In this paper, all the components of the water budget, such as precipitation, surface run-off and evapotranspiration, are studied for the three tested locations in Poland: Suwalki, Zegrzynski and Tarnow cells. The resultant water budget was also determined and presented graphically. On the basis of the water budget research, a prognosis was determined using AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models with the parameters (2,0,2). A comparison between actual water budget data and a prediction prepared for 2015.08–2016.08 indicated that analysing a 12-month period provides a satisfactory prediction assessment.
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Hobbs, Will, Matthew D. Palmer e Didier Monselesan. "An Energy Conservation Analysis of Ocean Drift in the CMIP5 Global Coupled Models*". Journal of Climate 29, n. 5 (22 febbraio 2016): 1639–53. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-15-0477.1.
Testo completoAbstract (sommario):
Abstract Climate model simulations of changes to Earth’s energy budget are fundamental to improve understanding of both historical and future climate change. However, coupled models are prone to “drift” (i.e., they contain spurious unforced trends in state variables) due to incomplete spinup or nonclosure of the energy budget. This work assesses the globally integrated energy budgets of 25 models in phase 5 of CMIP (CMIP5). It is shown that for many of the models there is a significant disagreement between ocean heat content changes and net top-of-atmosphere radiation. The disagreement is largely time-constant and independent of forcing scenario. Furthermore, most of the nonconservation seems to occur as a result of energy leaks external to the ocean model realm. After drift correction, the time-varying energy budget is consistent at decadal time scales, and model responses to climate forcing are not sensitive to the magnitude of their drift. This demonstrates that, although drift terms can be significant, model output can be corrected post hoc without biasing results.
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Laktionova, O., S. Desiatskyi, D. Mironenko, A. Melikhov, V. Makhinko e L. Kustrich. "Algorithms and business models of financial outsourcing for sustainable development in industry". IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science 915, n. 1 (1 novembre 2021): 012036. http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/915/1/012036.
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Abstract The work is devoted to the study of the use of business models of financial outsourcing in the institutional support of sustainable development. It is shown that a significant role in the sustainable development of the economy and environmental management can belong to clients of financial outsourcing services - small and medium-sized businesses (SMEs). The paper proposes to include an outsourcing company of financial outsourcing services in the infrastructure for supporting sustainable economic development of united territorial communities (UTC), which will increase the volume of revenues to the local budget and provide additional financing for SMEs, incl. whose activities are aimed at improving the environmental situation. A methodology for monitoring the revenue side of local budgets has been developed by processing monthly data “Openbudget” and “Opendata” by methods of predictive analytics. The proposed methodology has been tested on the example of the budget of Mariupol (Ukraine), as a city with a poor environmental situation, in which monitoring of the local budget will reveal additional sources of financing for the activities of SMEs - clients of financial outsourcing services aimed at improving the environment, as well as ensuring sustainable development of the economy of the territories and the country.
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Kung, Fan‐Hua, Cheng‐Li Huang e Chia‐Ling Cheng. "An examination of the relationships among budget emphasis, budget planning models and performance". Management Decision 51, n. 1 (febbraio 2013): 120–40. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/00251741311291346.
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Bondaruk, Т. H., І. S. Bondaruk e О. А. Vinnytska. "Foreign Experiences of Budget Decentralization". Scientific Bulletin of the National Academy of Statistics, Accounting and Audit, n. 3 (14 luglio 2018): 83–95. http://dx.doi.org/10.31767/nasoa.3.2018.09.
Testo completoAbstract (sommario):
Administrative reforms in Ukraine focused on decentralization of governance system, change in the administrative and territorial system by consolidating communities and redistribution of authorities and financing sources at local governance level are expected to be implemented in keeping with European standards. The need to achieve positive dynamics of the economic system in Ukraine raises the importance of studies covering the array of problems related with the operation of local budgets, including European practices of local budget formation in the conditions of decentralization and their applicability for Ukraine. The purpose of the article is to investigate foreign practices of budget decentralization and their implementation perspectives in Ukraine.
The essence of budget decentralization is highlighted; main indicators measuring budget decentralization and financial autonomy of local self-governance bodies are shown. As three models of local self-governance financing are distinguished by main criteria of financial decentralization (Scandinavian, Latin, and Hannover), peculiarities of the local budget formation in three countries belonging to the above models are analyzed: Finland (Scandinavian model), Spain (Latin model), and Poland (Hannover model). Results of the study show that while in countries of Scandinavian and Latin model taxation of consumption and residents’ incomes prevails, with fiscal importance of taxation of real estate, in countries of Hannover model taxation of consumption has minor significance.
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Gorbunov, Sergei Vladimirovch, Marina Yurievna Mishlanova e Dmitrii Valer'evich Khavin. "System parameterization of the budget model of investment construction project". Теоретическая и прикладная экономика, n. 3 (marzo 2021): 69–81. http://dx.doi.org/10.25136/2409-8647.2021.3.36247.
Testo completoAbstract (sommario):
This article reviews the definitions of budgeting and budget model, their role in cost management of investment construction projects, and the subject field of budget modeling of a project. The author indicates the relevance of implementation of budgeting in management of investment construction projects, as well as the factors of low efficiency of this process. The subject of this research is the system variables of the budget model: functions, content, structure, levels, quantitative and qualitative indicators, standards, methodological and analytical parameters, and financial modeling processes. The peculiarity of the subject of research lies in systematicity, need for consolidation of budgets in various aspects, and compatibility of the local budget models for creating a reasonably universal system for supporting managerial decision-making. Description is given to the basic methodological provisions of the development of budget models of investment construction projects. This article is first to elaborate on the analytical parameters of budget modeling of investment construction projects, as well indicate various parametric levels in reference to each other. The author develops the financial planning processes and the pattern of project budgeting, as well as adapts the cybernetic principles of “input – output”. It is suggested to use a special accounting scheme in the budget model of the project, which is based on the managerial accounting policy approved by the subject. For achieving compatibility of the methods of financial administration, the author offers to coordinate the cost pool in estimates and budgets, maximal expenditure accounting, reduce scheduling uncertainty, and consider dynamic factors. The budget model is viewed as an input parameter of cost control over the investment construction projects. The vectors of further improvement of budgeting of investment construction projects are proposed.
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Sukirman, Oman. "Apakah Anggaran Pemasaran Pariwisata Pemerintah Efektif dalam Meningkatkan Jumlah Kunjungan Wisatawan?" Journal : Tourism and Hospitality Essentials Journal 7, n. 2 (26 novembre 2017): 121. http://dx.doi.org/10.17509/thej.v7i2.9018.
Testo completoAbstract (sommario):
Our focus is the effect of the tourism ministry budget to promote tourism on the growing number of tourists. We used regression models using data for 2011 through 2016 to identify the impact of tourism marketing budgets on the growth in tourist numbers. The results show that the effect of higher marketing on the growth of the number of tourists depends on the level of tourism marketing budget that is in the ministry of tourism. More specifically, the results show that tourism marketing budgets have a major effect in increasing the number of foreign tourists visiting. However, the effect is different if applied to national tourism marketing. For the national tourism marketing budget is less effect in increasing the number of domestic tourists.
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Viana, Nelson Corrêa. "ORÇAMENTO PÚBLICO: modelos, desafios e crítica". Revista Políticas Públicas 18, n. 1 (4 agosto 2014): 45. http://dx.doi.org/10.18764/2178-2865.v18n1p45-57.
Testo completoAbstract (sommario):
O artigo analisa os modelos impostos por intelectuais orgânicos às economias periféricas, modelando-as para atender o grande capital. Explora e critica os desafios sobre esses modelos orçamentários ideais praticados em busca da transparência que mais afasta o interessado enquanto entroniza o tecnicismo, servo da política, nas montagens dos grandes números. Transparecer no orçamento é legitimar transferências públicas para o privado. Ao final, conclui com ceticismo sobre novas possibilidades para as políticas públicas pelas vias do orçamento sob o capitalismo neoliberal.Palavras-chave: Orçamento público; neoliberalismo; planejamento; transparênciaPUBLIC BUDGET: models, challenges and critic.Abstract: The article analyzes the models imposed by organic intellectuals to peripheral economies, shaping them to meetthe large capital. It explores and criticizes the challenges on these ideals budget models practiced in pursuit of transparencythat more deviate the one interested while enshrines the technicality, a servant of politics, in assemblies of large numbers.Being transparent in the budget is legitimizing public transfers for the private. At the end, it concludes with skepticism aboutnew possibilities for public policy through the paths of the budget under neoliberal capitalism.Keywords: Public budget, neoliberalism, planning, transparency.
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Cuadrado-Ballesteros, Beatriz, e Marco Bisogno. "Budget transparency and financial sustainability". Journal of Public Budgeting, Accounting & Financial Management 34, n. 6 (16 giugno 2022): 210–34. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/jpbafm-02-2022-0025.
Testo completoAbstract (sommario):
PurposeThis study investigates the transparency of budgets by examining its relationship with financial sustainability, which is a central area of research in the public-sector context.Design/methodology/approachReferring to the public value framework, a large sample of 110 countries has been investigated, implementing econometric models where the dependent variable is the Open Budget Index (OBI), published by the International Budget Partnership (IBP), and the test variables are different indicators of financial sustainability.FindingsThe results that emerge from the analysis suggest that budget transparency could be positively associated with the financial sustainability of governments, beyond the traditional aims of enhancing citizens' trust and participation.Originality/valueThis research offers important insights for policy areas, suggesting that improving budget transparency could be beneficial for public administrations because of the positive association with financial sustainability.
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Gist, Willie E., e Ronald A. Davidson. "An Exploratory Study of the Influence of Client Factors on Audit Time Budget Variances". AUDITING: A Journal of Practice & Theory 18, n. 1 (1 marzo 1999): 101–16. http://dx.doi.org/10.2308/aud.1999.18.1.101.
Testo completoAbstract (sommario):
This study provides a descriptive analysis of audit time budgets and considers the effect of client factors on the achievement of audit time budgets. Using archival data obtained from four of the Big 6 firms, we find that differences between audit time budgets and reported audit hours are significantly related to factors reflecting client size, risk, complexity and profitability, ceteris paribus. We also find that the degree to which client factors explain budget variances (defined as reported hours minus budgeted hours) depends on staff level. Specifically, differences in the achievement of audit time budgets for partners, seniors and juniors are related to certain client factors, but manager time is not. The results of the size variable suggest an attempt at substitution of more junior hours relative to other staff hours as the size of the auditee increases. Partner and senior models indicate a tendency for actual hours to be in excess of budgeted hours as size increases. Potential explanations for these and other findings along with the limitations and implications of the study are provided.
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Baghestani, Hamid, e Robert McNown. "Forecasting the federal budget with time-series models". Journal of Forecasting 11, n. 2 (febbraio 1992): 127–39. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/for.3980110204.
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Wild, O. "Modelling the global tropospheric ozone budget: exploring the variability in current models". Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions 7, n. 1 (8 febbraio 2007): 1995–2035. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acpd-7-1995-2007.
Testo completoAbstract (sommario):
Abstract. What are the largest uncertainties in modelling ozone in the troposphere, and how do they affect the calculated ozone budget? Published chemistry-transport model studies of tropospheric ozone differ significantly in their conclusions regarding the importance of the key processes controlling the ozone budget: influx from the stratosphere, chemical processing and surface deposition. This study surveys ozone budgets from previous studies and demonstrates that about two thirds of the increase in ozone production seen between early assessments and more recent model intercomparisons can be accounted for by increased precursor emissions. Model studies using recent estimates of emissions compare better with ozonesonde measurements than studies using older data, and the tropospheric burden of ozone is closer to that derived here from measurement climatologies, 335±10 Tg. However, differences between individual model studies remain large and cannot be explained by surface precursor emissions alone; cross-tropopause transport, wet and dry deposition, humidity, and lightning make large contributions to the differences seen between models. The importance of these processes is examined here using a chemistry-transport model to investigate the sensitivity of the calculated ozone budget to different assumptions about emissions, physical processes, meteorology and model resolution. The budget is particularly sensitive to the magnitude and location of lightning NOx emissions, which remain poorly constrained; the 3–8 TgN/yr range in recent model studies may account for a 10% difference in tropospheric ozone burden and a 1.4 year difference in CH4 lifetime. Differences in humidity and dry deposition account for some of the variability in ozone abundance and loss seen in previous studies, with smaller contributions from wet deposition and stratospheric influx. At coarse model resolutions stratospheric influx is systematically overestimated and dry deposition is underestimated; these differences are 5–8% at the 300–600 km grid-scales investigated here, similar in magnitude to the changes induced by interannual variability in meteorology. However, a large proportion of the variability between models remains unexplained, suggesting that differences in model chemistry and dynamics have a large impact on the calculated ozone budget, and these should be the target of future model intercomparisons.
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Wild, O. "Modelling the global tropospheric ozone budget: exploring the variability in current models". Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 7, n. 10 (21 maggio 2007): 2643–60. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-7-2643-2007.
Testo completoAbstract (sommario):
Abstract. What are the largest uncertainties in modelling ozone in the troposphere, and how do they affect the calculated ozone budget? Published chemistry-transport model studies of tropospheric ozone differ significantly in their conclusions regarding the importance of the key processes controlling the ozone budget: influx from the stratosphere, chemical processing and surface deposition. This study surveys ozone budgets from previous studies and demonstrates that about two thirds of the increase in ozone production seen between early assessments and more recent model intercomparisons can be accounted for by increased precursor emissions. Model studies using recent estimates of emissions compare better with ozonesonde measurements than studies using older data, and the tropospheric burden of ozone is closer to that derived here from measurement climatologies, 335±10 Tg. However, differences between individual model studies remain large and cannot be explained by surface precursor emissions alone; cross-tropopause transport, wet and dry deposition, humidity, and lightning also make large contributions. The importance of these processes is examined here using a chemistry-transport model to investigate the sensitivity of the calculated ozone budget to different assumptions about emissions, physical processes, meteorology and model resolution. The budget is particularly sensitive to the magnitude and location of lightning NOx emissions, which remain poorly constrained; the 3–8 TgN/yr range in recent model studies may account for a 10% difference in tropospheric ozone burden and a 1.4 year difference in CH4 lifetime. Differences in humidity and dry deposition account for some of the variability in ozone abundance and loss seen in previous studies, with smaller contributions from wet deposition and stratospheric influx. At coarse model resolutions stratospheric influx is systematically overestimated and dry deposition is underestimated; these differences are 5–8% at the 300–600 km grid-scales investigated here, similar in magnitude to the changes induced by interannual variability in meteorology. However, a large proportion of the variability between models remains unexplained, suggesting that differences in chemical mechanisms and dynamical schemes have a large impact on the calculated ozone budget, and these should be the target of future model intercomparisons.
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Rashid, Mehnaz, Rong-You Chien, Agnès Ducharne, Hyungjun Kim, Pat J. F. Yeh, Christophe Peugeot, Aaron Boone et al. "Evaluation of Groundwater Simulations in Benin from the ALMIP2 Project". Journal of Hydrometeorology 20, n. 2 (1 febbraio 2019): 339–54. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jhm-d-18-0025.1.
Testo completoAbstract (sommario):
AbstractA comprehensive estimation of water budget components, particularly groundwater storage (GWS) and fluxes, is crucial. In this study, we evaluate the terrestrial water budget of the Donga basin (Benin, West Africa), as simulated by three land surface models (LSMs) used in the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis Land Surface Model Intercomparison Project, phase 2 (ALMIP2): CLM4, Catchment LSM (CLSM), and Minimal Advanced Treatments of Surface Interaction and Runoff (MATSIRO). All three models include an unconfined groundwater component and are driven by the same ALMIP2 atmospheric forcing from 2005 to 2008. Results show that all three models simulate substantially shallower water table depth (WTD) with smaller seasonal variations, approximately 1–1.5 m compared to the observed values that range between 4 and 9.6 m, while the seasonal variations of GWS are overestimated by all the models. These seemingly contradictory simulation results can be explained by the overly high specific yield prescribed in all models. All models achieve similar GWS simulations but with different fractions of precipitation partitioning into surface runoff, base flow, and evapotranspiration (ET), suggesting high uncertainty and errors in the terrestrial and groundwater budgets among models. The poor performances of models can be attributed to bias in the hydrological partitioning (base flow vs surface runoff) and sparse subsurface data. This analysis confirms the importance of subsurface hydrological processes in the current generation of LSMs and calls for substantial improvement in both surface water budget (which controls groundwater recharge) and the groundwater system (hydrodynamic parameters, vertical geometry).
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Anatolii, VDOVICHEN, CHORNOVOL Alla e TABENSKA Yuliia. "BUDGET PLANNING IN THE CONDITIONS OF INSTITUTIONAL TRANSFORMATIONS". Herald of Kyiv National University of Trade and Economics 135, n. 1 (24 febbraio 2021): 90–100. http://dx.doi.org/10.31617/visnik.knute.2021(135)07.
Testo completoAbstract (sommario):
Background. Quality level of the budget planning is an important factor in ensuring balance of state and local budgets in the conditions of institutional transformations. Adoption of effective management decisions by public authorities and local governments involves the development of the budget planning system taking into account information technology, assessment of changes in socio-economic processes. The aim of the article is to reveal the areas of improvement of the budget planning system and its tools. Materials and methods. Thesystematic method has been used in determining nature and role of the budget planning in ensuring the stability and balance of state and local budgets. The comparative method is used in the process of generalizing the features of the budget planning tools. The method of scientific abstraction is used in the disclosure of theoretical and methodological principles of improving the budget planning system. The method of analysis and the synthesis has been used to assess the planned and actual indicators (revenues, expenditures, deficit of the State Budget of Ukraine; public and guaranteed public debt). Results. The essence and role of the budget planning in ensuring the stability and balance of state and local budgets have been determined. Theoretical and methodological principles of functioning of the budget planning system have been revealed. The analysis and assessment of planned and actual indicators such as revenues, expenditures, deficit of the State Budget of Ukraine; public and guaranteed public debt for 2015–2019 have been made. The ways of improving the budget planning system in the conditions of institutional transformations have been substantiated. Conclusion. A detailed analysis and assessment of the impact of internal and external factors on the financial and economic environment is needed in order to develop the budget planning system in terms of institutional transformation. It will provide an opportunity to identify regular trends in the dynamics of macroeconomic indicators and budget indicators. An important task is to develop economic and mathematical models based on the assessment of economic development opportunities of the country, the tax potential of administrative territorial units. Keywords: budget policy, budget system, budget planning, budget revenues, budget expenditures, budget deficit, public debt.
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Lago-Peñas, Carlos, María A. Fernández-Villarino, Iván González-García, Patricio Sánchez-Fernández e Jaime Sampaio. "The Impact of a Good Season Start on Team Performance in Elite Handball". Journal of Human Kinetics 50, n. 1 (1 aprile 2016): 195–202. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/hukin-2015-0156.
Testo completoAbstract (sommario):
AbstractThe aim of the current study was (i) to identify how important was a good season start in relation to elite handball teams’ performance, and (ii) to examine if this impact was related to the clubs’ financial budget. The match performances and annual budgets of all teams were collected from the Spanish Professional Handball League during ten seasons. The dependent variable was the difference between the ranking of each team in accordance to the annual budget and the ranking of each team at the end of the season. A k-means cluster analysis classified the clubs according to their budget as High Range Budget Clubs (HRBC), Upper-Mid Range Budget Clubs (UMRBC), Lower-Mid Range Budget Clubs (LMRBC) and Low Range Budget Clubs (LRBC). Data were examined through linear regression models. Overall, the results suggested that the better the team performance at the beginning of the season, the better the ranking at the end of the season. Each position in the ranking above expected in accordance to the budget of the teams in Rounds 3, 4 or 5 improved by 0.47, 0.50 or 0.49, respectively, in the ranking at the end of the season (p<0.05). However, the impact of the effect depended on the clubs’ annual budget. For UMRBC, LMRBC and LRBC a good start to the season had a positive effect on the final outcome (p<0.05). Nevertheless, for HRBC, a good or a bad start of the season did not explain their final position. These variables can be used to develop accurate models to estimate final rankings. UMRBC, LMRBC and LRBC can benefit from fine-tuning preseason planning in order to accelerate the acquisition of optimal performances.
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Suriani, Seri. "The Effect of Performance-Based Budgeting Implementation towards the Institution Performance Accountability (Case Study: Wajo)". Information Management and Business Review 7, n. 4 (30 agosto 2015): 6–22. http://dx.doi.org/10.22610/imbr.v7i4.1158.
Testo completoAbstract (sommario):
This study aimed at finding out empirical evidences whether the application of performance-based budgeting affected the performance accountability of Wajo government, seeing the effects of the application of performance-based budgeting to performance accountability of government agencies using four variables, namely, the budget planning (X1), the implementation of the budget (X2), the budget reporting/accountability (X3), and the performance evaluation (X4). In this study, the samples were 100 people. They are from 33 regional work units (SKPD) which consists of a team of Local Government Budget (TAPD) who involved in formatting the government budgets of Wajo regency. Data were collected through direct observation and survey obtained by distribution of questionnaires to the respondents. This study used multiple linear regression models with software SPSS. The study results showed that the budget planning and the budget reporting / accountability gave positive and significant impacts on performance accountability of government agencies, the implementation of the budget and the performance evaluation. It is shown from the results of multiple linear regression test which showed Y = 7.904 + 0.223 X1 + 0.222 X2 + 1.433 + 0.227 X3 X4. In conclusion, the application of performance-based budgeting gave positive effects on performance accountability of government agencies.
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Yao, Yonghong, Jingjing Li e Liu Yun. "Application of Flexible Budget Based on Company Profit Model: Taking VK's Financial Data as an Example". Asian Business Research 7, n. 2 (29 marzo 2022): 88. http://dx.doi.org/10.20849/abr.v7i2.1069.
Testo completoAbstract (sommario):
There are many types of budgeting, and budgeting based on profit models is rare. This paper combines financial big data with management accounting methods to build a profit model in financial big data; and uses model data as the basis and basis for preparing flexible budgets, making budget preparation and execution more scientific and feasible; The company’s budget preparation method has been introduced; more importantly, financial accounting and management accounting are integrated, and the forecasting and budgeting functions of management accounting applications are really brought into play and applied.
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RUBAEVA, L. M., e V. V. BUDAEVA. "ACCOUNT OPENING MODELS IN THE BUDGETARY PAYMENT TRANSACTION SYSTEM". EKONOMIKA I UPRAVLENIE: PROBLEMY, RESHENIYA 2, n. 3 (2021): 71–74. http://dx.doi.org/10.36871/ek.up.p.r.2021.03.02.012.
Testo completoAbstract (sommario):
The paper describes the models for opening accounts in the national budgetary payment transaction system. The choice of the most effective model is an issue in the science of budget law. Therefore, the author describes different models for opening of accounts. The first model is personal accounts, which has many similarities with bank accounts. This model used now. The second model is treasury accounts. This model is new to the national system of budget payments. The paper describes the features and benefits of both models. The author reaches to the conclusion that the system of budget payments has elements of both models. Therefore, the Treasury of Russia has more effective financial management tools. In turn, Treasury’s clients can conduct transactions faster and easier.
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Wang, Xingyuan, Fuan Li e Fan Jia. "Optimal Advertising Budget Allocation across Markets with Different Goals and Various Constraints". Complexity 2020 (21 maggio 2020): 1–12. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2020/6162056.
Testo completoAbstract (sommario):
Advertising budget allocation across multiple markets has drawn considerable attention in recent years. To expand previous research and fill a gap in the current literature, this study proposes two decision models for optimal budget allocation decisions across multimarkets with different goals and various constraints. In addition to the market parameters proposed by the Vidale–Wolfe model, the present study incorporates market goals and advertising objectives into budget allocation decisions. Different types of markets are defined in terms of the goal set for market share or profit. Given the characteristics of different markets, two separate decision models are developed. Model I aims to maximize sales volume given a fixed advertising budget, while model II seeks to minimize the advertising budget given a total of targeted sales volume for all the markets. Solutions to the two models are discussed, and a numerical example is provided to demonstrate how to apply the models in making budget allocation decision.
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Granitsa, Yu V. "Using distributed lag models to predict regional budget revenues". Economic Analysis: Theory and Practice 19, n. 6 (29 giugno 2020): 1154–72. http://dx.doi.org/10.24891/ea.19.6.1154.
Testo completoAbstract (sommario):
Subject. The article addresses projections of regional budget revenues, using distributed lag models. Objectives. The purpose is to review economic and statistical tools that are suitable for the analysis of relationship between the revenues of the regional budget system and regional macroeconomic predictors. Methods. The study draws on statistical, constructive, economic and mathematical methods of analysis. Results. In models with quantitative variables obtained under the Almon method, the significant predictors in the forecasting of regional budget revenues are determined mainly by the balanced financial result, the consumer price index, which characterizes inflation processes in the region, and the unemployment rate being the key indicator of the labor market. Models with quantitative variables obtained through the Koyck transformation are characterized by a wider range of predictors, the composition of which is determined by the peculiarities of economic situation in regions. The two-year forecast provides the average lag obtained during the evaluation of the models. The exception is the impact of unemployment rate, which is characterized as long-term. Conclusions. To generate forecasts of budget parameters, the results of both the Koyck method and the Almon method should be considered, though the former is more promising.
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Ott, Katarina, Velibor Mačkić, Mihaela Bronić e Branko Stanić. "Determinants of voluntary online local budget transparency". Ekonomski pregled 70, n. 2 (2 aprile 2019): 145–72. http://dx.doi.org/10.32910/ep.70.2.1.
Testo completoAbstract (sommario):
This article analyses the determinants of the voluntary online local budget transparency (OLBT) of Croatian local governments. Budget transparency is one of preconditions for enabling citizens’ participation and improving public sector outcomes; however, the previous empirical results are ambiguous and inconclusive, with particular gaps for ex-socialist, fiscally centralized countries. To contribute to the existing literature, this article uses the principal-agent and legitimacy theories and non-linear panel data models for the 2015-2017 period to analyse 128 cities and 428 municipalities in Croatia. The findings show that local governments with higher residents’ per capita income, population, Internet access, and administrative and fi scal capacity voluntarily publish more budget documents online. Policy recommendations point to the urge for the reform of the country’s territorial and fi scal organisation, the promotion of budget transparency in less developed cities/ municipalities and for education of citizens about budgets. The main study limitation is the absence of a qualitative analysis of observed documents.
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Yakovenko, Irina. "Fuzzy Stochastic Automation Model for Decision Support in the Process Inter-Budgetary Regulation". Mathematics 9, n. 1 (30 dicembre 2020): 67. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/math9010067.
Testo completoAbstract (sommario):
The purpose of this article is to study the theoretical foundations of the concept of fiscal decentralization, as the main path of self-development of the national economy of any country, and to develop mathematical tools that support decision-making in the aspect of “hard” budget constraints. The study of the problems of fiscal policy formation in foreign countries presented in modern scientific literature has revealed that the degree of application of the concepts of “soft” and “hard” budget restrictions is an actual topic in the theory of fiscal federalism. It has been substantiated that decision-making within the framework of “soft” budget constraints (financial assistance) leads to low tax autonomy of territories and limited liability of regional and municipal authorities for the results of their financial policy. As a research hypothesis, we put forward the thesis that it is necessary to create conditions for encouraging subnational authorities to support the territorial economy by granting them the possibility to use part of the taxes collected in the respective territories. The implementation of this thesis has given rise to the problem of quantifying decisions made regarding the establishment of standards for the distribution of tax revenues between budgets of different levels of the hierarchy of the country’s budget system. In terms of solving this problem, the author has constructed mathematical models based on the use of synthesis of mathematical apparatus of the theory of stochastic automata, fuzzy algebra, and simulation. In terms of solving this problem, the author proposed the use of mathematical modeling methods. The article presents the results of constructing economic and mathematical models to support decision-making in the vertical distribution of tax revenues between budgets. The models include stochastic automata, as mathematical abstractions, describing the expedient behavior of an economic agent when choosing management alternatives for territories of different levels of economic development. The transition functions of automaton models are formally described on the basis of the synthesis of mathematical apparatus of the theories of stochastic automata operating in random environments and fuzzy sets. The expediency property of the behavior of automaton models is justified by proving the corresponding theorems. The random environment in which stochastic automata are immersed is formed by a simulation model. The article demonstrates the results of experiments carried out on models, as well as a conceptual scheme of interaction between the automaton and simulation models.
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Karski, Ruth Lawrence, e Richard P. Barth. "Models of State Budget Allocation in Child Welfare Services". Administration in Social Work 24, n. 2 (11 settembre 2000): 45–66. http://dx.doi.org/10.1300/j147v24n02_04.
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Nisbet, R. M., E. B. Muller, K. Lika e S. A. L. M. Kooijman. "From molecules to ecosystems through dynamic energy budget models". Journal of Animal Ecology 69, n. 6 (7 luglio 2008): 913–26. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2656.2000.00448.x.
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Ganachaud, Alexandre. "Error Budget of Inverse Box Models: The North Atlantic". Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology 20, n. 11 (novembre 2003): 1641–55. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/1520-0426(2003)020<1641:eboibm>2.0.co;2.
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Lika, Konstadia, e Sebastiaan A. L. M. Kooijman. "The comparative topology of energy allocation in budget models". Journal of Sea Research 66, n. 4 (novembre 2011): 381–91. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.seares.2011.10.005.
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Vairaktarakis, George L. "Robust multi-item newsboy models with a budget constraint". International Journal of Production Economics 66, n. 3 (luglio 2000): 213–26. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s0925-5273(99)00129-2.
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Ledder, Glenn, J. David Logan e Anthony Joern. "Dynamic energy budget models with size-dependent hazard rates". Journal of Mathematical Biology 48, n. 6 (1 giugno 2004): 605–22. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00285-003-0263-1.
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Branson, Robert K. "Alternative models of schooling: Budget reallocation and policy change". International Journal of Educational Research 19, n. 2 (gennaio 1993): 145–56. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0883-0355(93)90024-e.
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Muthukrishnan, S., Martin Pál e Zoya Svitkina. "Stochastic Models for Budget Optimization in Search-Based Advertising". Algorithmica 58, n. 4 (7 maggio 2009): 1022–44. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00453-009-9311-6.
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Gong, Zaiwu, Xiaoxia Xu, Fengling Lu, Lianshui Li e Chao Xu. "On consensus models with utility preferences and limited budget". Applied Soft Computing 35 (ottobre 2015): 840–49. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.asoc.2015.03.019.
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43
Nisbet, R. M., E. B. Muller, K. Lika e S. A. L. M. Kooijman. "From molecules to ecosystems through dynamic energy budget models". Journal of Animal Ecology 69, n. 6 (dicembre 2000): 913–26. http://dx.doi.org/10.1046/j.1365-2656.2000.00448.x.
Testo completo
44
Hobeichi, Sanaa, Gab Abramowitz e Jason Evans. "Conserving Land–Atmosphere Synthesis Suite (CLASS)". Journal of Climate 33, n. 5 (1 marzo 2020): 1821–44. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-19-0036.1.
Testo completoAbstract (sommario):
AbstractAccurate estimates of terrestrial water and energy cycle components are needed to better understand climate processes and improve models’ ability to simulate future change. Various observational estimates are available for the individual budget terms; however, these typically show inconsistencies when combined in a budget. In this work, a Conserving Land–Atmosphere Synthesis Suite (CLASS) of estimates of simultaneously balanced surface water and energy budget components is developed. Individual CLASS variable datasets, where possible, 1) combine a range of existing variable product estimates, and hence overcome the limitations of estimates from a single source; 2) are observationally constrained with in situ measurements; 3) have uncertainty estimates that are consistent with their agreement with in situ observations; and 4) are consistent with each other by being able to solve the water and energy budgets simultaneously. First, available datasets of a budget variable are merged by implementing a weighting method that accounts both for the ability of datasets to match in situ measurements and the error covariance between datasets. Then, the budget terms are adjusted by applying an objective variational data assimilation technique (DAT) that enforces the simultaneous closure of the surface water and energy budgets linked through the equivalence of evapotranspiration and latent heat. Comparing component estimates before and after applying the DAT against in situ measurements of energy fluxes and streamflow showed that modified estimates agree better with in situ observations across various metrics, but also revealed some inconsistencies between water budget terms in June over the higher latitudes. CLASS variable estimates are freely available via https://doi.org/10.25914/5c872258dc183.
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Keen, Ann, Ed Blockley, David A. Bailey, Jens Boldingh Debernard, Mitchell Bushuk, Steve Delhaye, David Docquier et al. "An inter-comparison of the mass budget of the Arctic sea ice in CMIP6 models". Cryosphere 15, n. 2 (24 febbraio 2021): 951–82. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-951-2021.
Testo completoAbstract (sommario):
Abstract. We compare the mass budget of the Arctic sea ice for 15 models submitted to the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), using new diagnostics that have not been available for previous model inter-comparisons. These diagnostics allow us to look beyond the standard metrics of ice cover and thickness to compare the processes of sea ice growth and loss in climate models in a more detailed way than has previously been possible. For the 1960–1989 multi-model mean, the dominant processes causing annual ice growth are basal growth and frazil ice formation, which both occur during the winter. The main processes by which ice is lost are basal melting, top melting and advection of ice out of the Arctic. The first two processes occur in summer, while the latter process is present all year. The sea ice budgets for individual models are strikingly similar overall in terms of the major processes causing ice growth and loss and in terms of the time of year during which each process is important. However, there are also some key differences between the models, and we have found a number of relationships between model formulation and components of the ice budget that hold for all or most of the CMIP6 models considered here. The relative amounts of frazil and basal ice formation vary between the models, and the amount of frazil ice formation is strongly dependent on the value chosen for the minimum frazil ice thickness. There are also differences in the relative amounts of top and basal melting, potentially dependent on how much shortwave radiation can penetrate through the sea ice into the ocean. For models with prognostic melt ponds, the choice of scheme may affect the amount of basal growth, basal melt and top melt, and the choice of thermodynamic scheme is important in determining the amount of basal growth and top melt. As the ice cover and mass decline during the 21st century, we see a shift in the timing of the top and basal melting in the multi-model mean, with more melt occurring earlier in the year and less melt later in the summer. The amount of basal growth reduces in the autumn, but it increases in the winter due to thinner sea ice over the course of the 21st century. Overall, extra ice loss in May–June and reduced ice growth in October–November are partially offset by reduced ice melt in August and increased ice growth in January–February. For the individual models, changes in the budget components vary considerably in terms of magnitude and timing of change. However, when the evolving budget terms are considered as a function of the changing ice state itself, behaviours common to all the models emerge, suggesting that the sea ice components of the models are fundamentally responding in a broadly consistent way to the warming climate. It is possible that this similarity in the model budgets may represent a lack of diversity in the model physics of the CMIP6 models considered here. The development of new observational datasets for validating the budget terms would help to clarify this.
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Sherwood, Owen A., Stefan Schwietzke, Victoria A. Arling e Giuseppe Etiope. "Global Inventory of Gas Geochemistry Data from Fossil Fuel, Microbial and Burning Sources, version 2017". Earth System Science Data 9, n. 2 (31 agosto 2017): 639–56. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-639-2017.
Testo completoAbstract (sommario):
Abstract. The concentration of atmospheric methane (CH4) has more than doubled over the industrial era. To help constrain global and regional CH4 budgets, inverse (top-down) models incorporate data on the concentration and stable carbon (δ13C) and hydrogen (δ2H) isotopic ratios of atmospheric CH4. These models depend on accurate δ13C and δ2H end-member source signatures for each of the main emissions categories. Compared with meticulous measurement and calibration of isotopic CH4 in the atmosphere, there has been relatively less effort to characterize globally representative isotopic source signatures, particularly for fossil fuel sources. Most global CH4 budget models have so far relied on outdated source signature values derived from globally nonrepresentative data. To correct this deficiency, we present a comprehensive, globally representative end-member database of the δ13C and δ2H of CH4 from fossil fuel (conventional natural gas, shale gas, and coal), modern microbial (wetlands, rice paddies, ruminants, termites, and landfills and/or waste) and biomass burning sources. Gas molecular compositional data for fossil fuel categories are also included with the database. The database comprises 10 706 samples (8734 fossil fuel, 1972 non-fossil) from 190 published references. Mean (unweighted) δ13C signatures for fossil fuel CH4 are significantly lighter than values commonly used in CH4 budget models, thus highlighting potential underestimation of fossil fuel CH4 emissions in previous CH4 budget models. This living database will be updated every 2–3 years to provide the atmospheric modeling community with the most complete CH4 source signature data possible. Database digital object identifier (DOI): https://doi.org/10.15138/G3201T.
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GUZOWSKI, PIOTR. "A changing economy: models of peasant budgets in fifteenth- and sixteenth-century Poland". Continuity and Change 20, n. 1 (maggio 2005): 9–25. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0268416004005338.
Testo completoAbstract (sommario):
This article presents two models of Polish peasant budgets. The first is a theoretical budget of a medieval peasant family and the second is a similar model for the early modern period, confirming some of the characteristic features of the transitional period in the Polish economy in this period. Variables taken into account in the construction of the budgets include the average size of a peasant farm, its productivity, the distribution of crops, family size, rents and taxes paid to the state, Church and feudal lords. The two factors that appear to have had the greatest impact on peasant budgets during the fifteenth and sixteenth centuries were the decrease in farm size and the sharp rise in grain prices in the sixteenth century. As a result, although comparison of the two models indicates a decrease in the level of commercialization of the average Polish peasant farm, the financial resources of Polish peasants actually grew.
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Le Quéré, C., G. P. Peters, R. J. Andres, R. M. Andrew, T. Boden, P. Ciais, P. Friedlingstein et al. "Global carbon budget 2013". Earth System Science Data Discussions 6, n. 2 (19 novembre 2013): 689–760. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/essdd-6-689-2013.
Testo completoAbstract (sommario):
Abstract. Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe datasets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil-fuel combustion and cement production (EFF) are based on energy statistics, while emissions from Land-Use Change (ELUC), including deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover change data, fire activity in regions undergoing deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in SOCEAN is evaluated for the first time in this budget with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of Dynamic Global Vegetation Models. All uncertainties are reported as ± 1 sigma, reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (2003–2012), EFF was 8.6 ± 0.4 GtC yr−1, ELUC 0.8 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, GATM 4.3 ± 0.1 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN 2.6 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND 2.6 ± 0.8 GtC yr−1. For year 2012 alone, EFF grew to 9.7 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, 2.2% above 2011, reflecting a continued trend in these emissions; GATM was 5.2 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN was 2.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and assuming and ELUC of 0.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 (based on 2001–2010 average), SLAND was 2.5 ± 0.9 GtC yr−1. GATM was high in 2012 compared to the 2003–2012 average, almost entirely reflecting the high EFF. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 392.52 ± 0.10 ppm on average over 2012. We estimate that EFF will increase by 2.1% (1.1–3.1%) to 9.9 ± 0.5 GtC in 2013, 61% above emissions in 1990, based on projections of World Gross Domestic Product and recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy. With this projection, cumulative emissions of CO2 will reach about 550 ± 60 GtC for 1870–2013, 70% from EFF (390 ± 20 GtC) and 30% from ELUC (160 ± 55 GtC). This paper is intended to provide a baseline to keep track of annual carbon budgets in the future. All data presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (10.3334/CDIAC/GCP_2013_v1.1).
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Arendacká, Barbora, Angelika Täubner, Sascha Eichstädt, Thomas Bruns e Clemens Elster. "Linear Mixed Models: Gum and Beyond". Measurement Science Review 14, n. 2 (1 aprile 2014): 52–61. http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/msr-2014-0009.
Testo completoAbstract (sommario):
Abstract In Annex H.5, the Guide to the Evaluation of Uncertainty in Measurement (GUM) [1] recognizes the necessity to analyze certain types of experiments by applying random effects ANOVA models. These belong to the more general family of linear mixed models that we focus on in the current paper. Extending the short introduction provided by the GUM, our aim is to show that the more general, linear mixed models cover a wider range of situations occurring in practice and can be beneficial when employed in data analysis of long-term repeated experiments. Namely, we point out their potential as an aid in establishing an uncertainty budget and as means for gaining more insight into the measurement process. We also comment on computational issues and to make the explanations less abstract, we illustrate all the concepts with the help of a measurement campaign conducted in order to challenge the uncertainty budget in calibration of accelerometers.
50
Le Quéré, C., G. P. Peters, R. J. Andres, R. M. Andrew, T. A. Boden, P. Ciais, P. Friedlingstein et al. "Global carbon budget 2013". Earth System Science Data 6, n. 1 (17 giugno 2014): 235–63. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/essd-6-235-2014.
Testo completoAbstract (sommario):
Abstract. Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates, consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil-fuel combustion and cement production (EFF) are based on energy statistics, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in SOCEAN is evaluated for the first time in this budget with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models forced by observed climate, CO2 and land cover change (some including nitrogen–carbon interactions). All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ, reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (2003–2012), EFF was 8.6 ± 0.4 GtC yr−1, ELUC 0.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, GATM 4.3 ± 0.1 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN 2.5 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND 2.8 ± 0.8 GtC yr−1. For year 2012 alone, EFF grew to 9.7 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, 2.2% above 2011, reflecting a continued growing trend in these emissions, GATM was 5.1 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN was 2.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and assuming an ELUC of 1.0 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 (based on the 2001–2010 average), SLAND was 2.7 ± 0.9 GtC yr−1. GATM was high in 2012 compared to the 2003–2012 average, almost entirely reflecting the high EFF. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 392.52 ± 0.10 ppm averaged over 2012. We estimate that EFF will increase by 2.1% (1.1–3.1%) to 9.9 ± 0.5 GtC in 2013, 61% above emissions in 1990, based on projections of world gross domestic product and recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy. With this projection, cumulative emissions of CO2 will reach about 535 ± 55 GtC for 1870–2013, about 70% from EFF (390 ± 20 GtC) and 30% from ELUC (145 ± 50 GtC). This paper also documents any changes in the methods and data sets used in this new carbon budget from previous budgets (Le Quéré et al., 2013). All observations presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (doi:10.3334/CDIAC/GCP_2013_V2.3).