Tesi sul tema "Bayes's theorem"
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Portugal, Agnaldo Cuoco. "Theism, Bayes's theorem and religious experience : an examination of Richard Swinburnes's religious epistemology". Thesis, King's College London (University of London), 2003. https://kclpure.kcl.ac.uk/portal/en/theses/theism-bayess-theorem-and-religious-experience--an-examination-of-richard-swinburness-religious-epistemology(f6ab0fd9-9277-41d7-9997-ecad803c54ae).html.
Testo completoRogers, David M. "Using Bayes' theorem for free energy calculations". Cincinnati, Ohio : University of Cincinnati, 2009. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view.cgi?acc_num=ucin1251832030.
Testo completoAdvisor: Thomas L. Beck. Title from electronic thesis title page (viewed Jan. 21, 2010). Keywords: Bayes; probability; statistical mechanics; free energy. Includes abstract. Includes bibliographical references.
Jones, Martin K. "Bayes' Theorem and positive confirmation : an experimental economic analysis". Thesis, University of East Anglia, 1996. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.300072.
Testo completoFletcher, Douglas. "Generalized Empirical Bayes: Theory, Methodology, and Applications". Diss., Temple University Libraries, 2019. http://cdm16002.contentdm.oclc.org/cdm/ref/collection/p245801coll10/id/546485.
Testo completoPh.D.
The two key issues of modern Bayesian statistics are: (i) establishing a principled approach for \textit{distilling} a statistical prior distribution that is \textit{consistent} with the given data from an initial believable scientific prior; and (ii) development of a \textit{consolidated} Bayes-frequentist data analysis workflow that is more effective than either of the two separately. In this thesis, we propose generalized empirical Bayes as a new framework for exploring these fundamental questions along with a wide range of applications spanning fields as diverse as clinical trials, metrology, insurance, medicine, and ecology. Our research marks a significant step towards bridging the ``gap'' between Bayesian and frequentist schools of thought that has plagued statisticians for over 250 years. Chapters 1 and 2---based on \cite{mukhopadhyay2018generalized}---introduces the core theory and methods of our proposed generalized empirical Bayes (gEB) framework that solves a long-standing puzzle of modern Bayes, originally posed by Herbert Robbins (1980). One of the main contributions of this research is to introduce and study a new class of nonparametric priors ${\rm DS}(G, m)$ that allows exploratory Bayesian modeling. However, at a practical level, major practical advantages of our proposal are: (i) computational ease (it does not require Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), variational methods, or any other sophisticated computational techniques); (ii) simplicity and interpretability of the underlying theoretical framework which is general enough to include almost all commonly encountered models; and (iii) easy integration with mainframe Bayesian analysis that makes it readily applicable to a wide range of problems. Connections with other Bayesian cultures are also presented in the chapter. Chapter 3 deals with the topic of measurement uncertainty from a new angle by introducing the foundation of nonparametric meta-analysis. We have applied the proposed methodology to real data examples from astronomy, physics, and medical disciplines. Chapter 4 discusses some further extensions and application of our theory to distributed big data modeling and the missing species problem. The dissertation concludes by highlighting two important areas of future work: a full Bayesian implementation workflow and potential applications in cybersecurity.
Temple University--Theses
Conlon, Erin Marie. "Estimation and flexible correlation structures in spatial hierarchical models of disease mapping /". Diss., ON-CAMPUS Access For University of Minnesota, Twin Cities Click on "Connect to Digital Dissertations", 1999. http://www.lib.umn.edu/articles/proquest.phtml.
Testo completoChadwick, Thomas Jonathan. "A general Bayes theory of nested model comparisons". Thesis, University of Newcastle Upon Tyne, 2002. http://hdl.handle.net/10443/641.
Testo completoZhang, Shunpu. "Some contributions to empirical Bayes theory and functional estimation". Thesis, National Library of Canada = Bibliothèque nationale du Canada, 1997. http://www.collectionscanada.ca/obj/s4/f2/dsk3/ftp04/nq23100.pdf.
Testo completoYang, Ying. "Discretization for Naive-Bayes learning". Monash University, School of Computer Science and Software Engineering, 2003. http://arrow.monash.edu.au/hdl/1959.1/9393.
Testo completoLiu, Ka-yee. "Bayes and empirical Bayes estimation for the panel threshold autoregressive model and non-Gaussian time series". Click to view the E-thesis via HKUTO, 2005. http://sunzi.lib.hku.hk/hkuto/record/B30706166.
Testo completoLiu, Ka-yee, e 廖家怡. "Bayes and empirical Bayes estimation for the panel threshold autoregressive model and non-Gaussian time series". Thesis, The University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong), 2005. http://hub.hku.hk/bib/B30706166.
Testo completoFarrell, Patrick John. "Empirical Bayes estimation of small area proportions". Thesis, McGill University, 1991. http://digitool.Library.McGill.CA:80/R/?func=dbin-jump-full&object_id=70301.
Testo completoThe proposed techniques are applied to data from the 1950 United States Census to predict local labor force participation rates of females. Results are compared with those obtained using unbiased and synthetic estimation approaches.
Using the proposed methodologies, a sensitivity analysis concerning the prior distribution assumption, conducted with a view toward outlier detection, is performed. The use of bootstrap techniques to correct measures of uncertainty is also studied.
Salge, Christoph. "Information theoretic models of social interaction". Thesis, University of Hertfordshire, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/2299/13887.
Testo completoFrança, Paulo dos Santos. "Comunidades Epistêmicas Artificiais: o papel da confiança na comunidade científica". Universidade de São Paulo, 2017. http://www.teses.usp.br/teses/disponiveis/100/100132/tde-19112017-205840/.
Testo completoThe study of complex systems helps us understand how simple local rules can generate complex and often unexpected aggregate patterns. When the rules are well defined and patterns observed, the system can be modeled and its results compared. One of the major challenges for modeling complex systems is to define a rule of interaction responsible for complex behavior. In opinion dynamics, complex and unexpected pattern may be the sudden consensus or even a polarization, so the aim it is to verify under what circumstances we can observe agreement or disagreement. Although there are a number of models of opinion dynamics to describe how people should interact with each other, each one defines an ad hoc opinion formation rule. The model of opinion dynamics CODA (Continuous Opinions and Discret Actions) proposes a theoretical framework for the models of opinion dynamics, based on probability theory. Their applications range from studies on innovation to epistemology. In this dissertation, we deepen the studies of epistemology that involve the CODA, investigating mainly the effect of the trust in the process of scientific confirmation. Our simulations corroborates sociological and historical researches on the role of trust in the process of acquisition and generation of knowledge
Desai, Manisha. "Mixture models for genetic changes in cancer cells /". Thesis, Connect to this title online; UW restricted, 2000. http://hdl.handle.net/1773/9566.
Testo completoWeller, Jennifer N. "Bayesian Inference In Forecasting Volcanic Hazards: An Example From Armenia". [Tampa, Fla.] : University of South Florida, 2004. http://purl.fcla.edu/fcla/etd/SFE0000485.
Testo completoArdia, David. "Financial risk management with Bayesian estimation of GARCH models theory and applications". Berlin Heidelberg Springer, 2008. http://d-nb.info/987538780/04.
Testo completoWang, Kai. "Novel computational methods for accurate quantitative and qualitative protein function prediction /". Thesis, Connect to this title online; UW restricted, 2005. http://hdl.handle.net/1773/11488.
Testo completoThach, Chau Thuy. "Self-designing optimal group sequential clinical trials /". Thesis, Connect to this title online; UW restricted, 2000. http://hdl.handle.net/1773/9585.
Testo completoWang, Jiabin. "Variational Bayes inference based segmentation algorithms for brain PET-CT images". Thesis, The University of Sydney, 2012. https://hdl.handle.net/2123/29251.
Testo completoCharland, Katia. "Evaluation of fully Bayesian disease mapping models in correctly identifying high-risk areas with an application to multiple sclerosis". Thesis, McGill University, 2007. http://digitool.Library.McGill.CA:80/R/?func=dbin-jump-full&object_id=103370.
Testo completoA common goal in disease mapping studies is to identify areas of elevated risk. The objective of this thesis is to compare the accuracy of several fully Bayesian hierarchical models in discriminating between high-risk and background-risk areas. These models differ according to the various spatial, temporal and space-time interaction terms that are included in the model, which can greatly affect the smoothing of the risk estimates. This was accomplished with simulations based on the cervical cancer rate of Kentucky and at-risk person-years of the state of Kentucky's 120 counties from 1995 to 2002. High-risk areas were 'planted' in the generated maps that otherwise had background relative risks of one. The various disease mapping models were applied and their accuracy in correctly identifying high- and background-risk areas was compared by means of Receiver Operating Characteristic curve methodology. Using data on Multiple Sclerosis (MS) on the island of Sardinia, Italy we apply the more successful models to identify areas of elevated MS risk.
Damian, Doris. "A Bayesian approach to estimating heterogeneous spatial covariances /". Thesis, Connect to this title online; UW restricted, 2002. http://hdl.handle.net/1773/9563.
Testo completoBäurle, Gregor. "Connecting macroeconomic theory to the data methods and applications". Berlin dissertation.de, 2008. http://d-nb.info/999377655/04.
Testo completoSheppard, Sarah E. "Application of a Naïve Bayes Classifier to Assign Polyadenylation Sites from 3' End Deep Sequencing Data: A Dissertation". eScholarship@UMMS, 2013. http://escholarship.umassmed.edu/gsbs_diss/653.
Testo completoTang, Adelina Lai Toh. "Application of the tree augmented naive Bayes network to classification and forecasting /". [St. Lucia, Qld.], 2004. http://www.library.uq.edu.au/pdfserve.php?image=thesisabs/absthe.pdf.
Testo completoHubbard, Rebecca Allana. "Modeling a non-homogeneous Markov process via time transformation /". Thesis, Connect to this title online; UW restricted, 2007. http://hdl.handle.net/1773/9607.
Testo completoSpilker, Mary Elizabeth. "A Bayesian approach to parametric image analysis /". Thesis, Connect to this title online; UW restricted, 2002. http://hdl.handle.net/1773/8107.
Testo completoEriksson, Viktor. "Bayesian Model Selection with Intrinsic Bayes Factor for Location-Scale Model and Random Effects Model". Thesis, Örebro universitet, Handelshögskolan vid Örebro Universitet, 2020. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:oru:diva-85152.
Testo completoCampos, Marília Silveira de Almeida. "Comparação da eficácia e tolerabilidade dos fármacos antiepilépticos : revisão sistemática com meta-análises". reponame:Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações da UFRGS, 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/10183/158714.
Testo completoOBJECTIVE: To compare the efficacy and tolerability of the antiepileptic drugs (AED) in monotherapy of patients with focal or generalized epilepsy. METHODS: A systematic review was in the Medline/Pubmed, Scopus, Web of Science and Cochrane Register of Controlled Trials databases. We included randomized clinical trials of patients with epilepsy treated with oral monotherapy AED, which evaluated number of patients becoming seizure free at the maintenance treatment period; number of patients which withdrawals from the study because of therapeutic inefficacy and number of patients which withdrawals from the study because of intolerable adverse reaction. Network meta-analyses were performed using Bayesian random effects model. We also carried out a ranking of the probability of each AED be the best option in the efficacy and tolerability outcomes. Sensitivity analyses were conducted in order to check the robustness of the results. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: The research identified 18,874 publications, but only 71 studies were selected, comprising 17555 patients with epilepsy.Twenty-nine trials showed the efficacy outcomes in the treatment of focal seizures, 19 in generalized seizures and 58 showed tolerability data. In the treatment of focal seizures, levetiracetam (LEV), lamotrigine (LTG), oxcarbazepine, sultiame and topiramate (TPM) have demonstrated equivalent efficacy to carbamazepine (CBZ), clobazam and valproate (VPA). LTG, LEV and TPM are as effective as the VPA for the treatment of generalized tonic-clonic, tonic and clonic seizures. VPA and ethosuximide are the best options for the treatment of absence seizures, whereas LTG was less effective. For the treatment of myoclonic seizures and infantile spasms, more randomized clinical trials are needed to provide good evidence to guide the clinical decision of health professionals. Among the AED with adequate efficacy profile, LTG stands out as the AED with the best tolerability profile, suggesting it may be the best option for the treatment of patients with epilepsy.
Bade, Alexander. "Bayesian portfolio optimization from a static and dynamic perspective /". Münster : Verl.-Haus Monsenstein und Vannerdat, 2009. http://d-nb.info/996985085/04.
Testo completoKaufmann, Olaf. "Immunhistochemisch gestützte Tumordiagnostik unter besonderer Berücksichtigung von Metastasen bei unbekanntem Primärtumor". Doctoral thesis, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Medizinische Fakultät - Universitätsklinikum Charité, 2001. http://dx.doi.org/10.18452/13777.
Testo completoImmunohistochemical studies on metastatic carcinomas of unknown primary site are cost-effective and often allow a specific identification of the tumor origin, especially if the metastases are adenocarcinomas by light microscopy. Commercially available site-specific markers include prostate-specific antigen, thyreoglobulin, thyreoid transcription factor-1, uroplakin III, GCDFP-15, estrogen- and progesterone rezeptors, (-Fetoprotein, the A103 monoclonal antibody against MART-1, cytokeratins 7 and 20, cytokeratins of basal cell type, p63, carcinoembryonic antigen, CA-125, EMA, vimentin, HepPar-1, and S100 protein. However, immunostainings with most of these markers do not show an absolute specificity for a certain primary site. For this reason, histopathologists interpretating staining results with these markers should take into consideration the available clinical data and the histological features of the metastatic carcinoma. These data are necessary to estimate the relative a priori probabilities of possible carcinomas. Based on Bayes` theorem, the a priori probabilities can then be used to calculate the diagnostically relevant predictive values for immunostaining results with the chosen markers.
Salomão, Marcelo Soares. "Estudo e generalizações do paradoxo de Monty Hall na educação básica". Universidade Federal de Juiz de Fora, 2014. https://repositorio.ufjf.br/jspui/handle/ufjf/789.
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CAPES - Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior
Nesse trabalho apresentamos o Paradoxo de Monty Hall e seus aspectos lúdicos como uma oportunidade de cativar o educando para o estudo das probabilidades. Oferecendo assim a oportunidade de trabalhar no universo da educação básica o ensino de probabilidade na sala de aula através de atividades em forma de jogos. Apesar da dificuldade do assunto na Educação Básica, os professores que lerem o trabalho poderão aproveitar algumas dessas ideias e transformá-las em conhecimento aos seus educandos. Primeiramente apresentamos um breve resumo teórico sobre probabilidade, um pouco da história do Monty Hall paradox e algumas soluções formais e experimentais. Para as atividades, há simulações do problema com variantes do números de portas proporcionando desenvolver no aluno as habilidades como: experimentação, abstração, modelagem. Com o intuito de fazer uso de recursos computacionais apresentamos uma sugestão de atividade com a utilização de um software de fácil acesso e manuseio. Isso se sustenta, pois com aumento de cursos tecnológicos e a presença maior da informática no cotidiano do educando é imperativo o emprego dessa interdisciplinaridade.
We present the Monty Hall Paradox and its entertaining aspects as a chance to engage the student to the study of probability. Thus offering the opportunity to work in the world of basic education by teaching probability in the level of classroom through activities in the form of games. Despite of the difficulty of the subject at the Basic Education, it is expected that teachers who read the work will take some of these ideas and turn them into knowledge to their students. First, we present a brief overview of theoretical probability, a little history of the Monty Hall paradox and some formal and experimental solutions. For activities, there are simulations of the problem with varying numbers of ports providing the development of student skills such as experimentation, abstraction, and modeling. In order to make use of computational resources we present a suggested activity with the use of software for easy access and handling. This is sustained, because with increased technological courses and the increased presence of computers in daily life of the student it is imperative the employment of this interdisciplinarity.
Pawar, Yash. "Bayes Factors for the Proposition of a Common Source of Amphetamine Seizures". Thesis, Linköpings universitet, Statistik och maskininlärning, 2021. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-176416.
Testo completoBillig, Ian A. "Bayesian Analysis of Systematic Theoretical Errors Models". Ohio University Honors Tutorial College / OhioLINK, 2021. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=ouhonors155619979679762.
Testo completoBanerjee, Samprit. "Bayesian genome-wide QTL mapping for multiple traits". Thesis, Birmingham, Ala. : University of Alabama at Birmingham, 2008. https://www.mhsl.uab.edu/dt/2009r/banerjee.pdf.
Testo completoJordaan, Aletta Gertruida. "Empirical Bayes estimation of the extreme value index in an ANOVA setting". Thesis, Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/86216.
Testo completoENGLISH ABSTRACT: Extreme value theory (EVT) involves the development of statistical models and techniques in order to describe and model extreme events. In order to make inferences about extreme quantiles, it is necessary to estimate the extreme value index (EVI). Numerous estimators of the EVI exist in the literature. However, these estimators are only applicable in the single sample setting. The aim of this study is to obtain an improved estimator of the EVI that is applicable to an ANOVA setting. An ANOVA setting lends itself naturally to empirical Bayes (EB) estimators, which are the main estimators under consideration in this study. EB estimators have not received much attention in the literature. The study begins with a literature study, covering the areas of application of EVT, Bayesian theory and EB theory. Different estimation methods of the EVI are discussed, focusing also on possible methods of determining the optimal threshold. Specifically, two adaptive methods of threshold selection are considered. A simulation study is carried out to compare the performance of different estimation methods, applied only in the single sample setting. First order and second order estimation methods are considered. In the case of second order estimation, possible methods of estimating the second order parameter are also explored. With regards to obtaining an estimator that is applicable to an ANOVA setting, a first order EB estimator and a second order EB estimator of the EVI are derived. A case study of five insurance claims portfolios is used to examine whether the two EB estimators improve the accuracy of estimating the EVI, when compared to viewing the portfolios in isolation. The results showed that the first order EB estimator performed better than the Hill estimator. However, the second order EB estimator did not perform better than the “benchmark” second order estimator, namely fitting the perturbed Pareto distribution to all observations above a pre-determined threshold by means of maximum likelihood estimation.
AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Ekstreemwaardeteorie (EWT) behels die ontwikkeling van statistiese modelle en tegnieke wat gebruik word om ekstreme gebeurtenisse te beskryf en te modelleer. Ten einde inferensies aangaande ekstreem kwantiele te maak, is dit nodig om die ekstreem waarde indeks (EWI) te beraam. Daar bestaan talle beramers van die EWI in die literatuur. Hierdie beramers is egter slegs van toepassing in die enkele steekproef geval. Die doel van hierdie studie is om ’n meer akkurate beramer van die EWI te verkry wat van toepassing is in ’n ANOVA opset. ’n ANOVA opset leen homself tot die gebruik van empiriese Bayes (EB) beramers, wat die fokus van hierdie studie sal wees. Hierdie beramers is nog nie in literatuur ondersoek nie. Die studie begin met ’n literatuurstudie, wat die areas van toepassing vir EWT, Bayes teorie en EB teorie insluit. Verskillende metodes van EWI beraming word bespreek, insluitend ’n bespreking oor hoe die optimale drempel bepaal kan word. Spesifiek word twee aanpasbare metodes van drempelseleksie beskou. ’n Simulasiestudie is uitgevoer om die akkuraatheid van beraming van verskillende beramingsmetodes te vergelyk, in die enkele steekproef geval. Eerste orde en tweede orde beramingsmetodes word beskou. In die geval van tweede orde beraming, word moontlike beramingsmetodes van die tweede orde parameter ook ondersoek. ’n Eerste orde en ’n tweede orde EB beramer van die EWI is afgelei met die doel om ’n beramer te kry wat van toepassing is vir die ANAVA opset. ’n Gevallestudie van vyf versekeringsportefeuljes word gebruik om ondersoek in te stel of die twee EB beramers die akkuraatheid van beraming van die EWI verbeter, in vergelyking met die EWI beramers wat verkry word deur die portefeuljes afsonderlik te ontleed. Die resultate toon dat die eerste orde EB beramer beter gevaar het as die Hill beramer. Die tweede orde EB beramer het egter slegter gevaar as die tweede orde beramer wat gebruik is as maatstaf, naamlik die passing van die gesteurde Pareto verdeling (PPD) aan alle waarnemings bo ’n gegewe drempel, met behulp van maksimum aanneemlikheidsberaming.
Toribio, Sherwin G. "Bayesian Model Checking Strategies for Dichotomous Item Response Theory Models". Bowling Green State University / OhioLINK, 2006. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=bgsu1150425606.
Testo completoSjöqvist, Hugo. "Classifying Forest Cover type with cartographic variables via the Support Vector Machine, Naive Bayes and Random Forest classifiers". Thesis, Örebro universitet, Handelshögskolan vid Örebro Universitet, 2017. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:oru:diva-58384.
Testo completoEldud, Omer Ahmed Abdelkarim. "Prediction of protein secondary structure using binary classificationtrees, naive Bayes classifiers and the Logistic Regression Classifier". Thesis, Rhodes University, 2016. http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1019985.
Testo completoLibby, Eric. "Investigations into the design and dissection of genetic networks". Thesis, McGill University, 2007. http://digitool.Library.McGill.CA:80/R/?func=dbin-jump-full&object_id=103265.
Testo completoCells must respond to the extracellular environment to contract, migrate, and live. Cells, however, are subject to stochastic fluctuations in protein concentrations. I investigate how cells make important decisions such as gene transcription based on noisy measurements of the extracellular environment. I propose that genetic networks perform Bayesian inference as a way to consider the probabilistic nature of these measurements and make the best decision. With mathematical models, I show that allosteric repressors and activators can correctly infer the state of the environment despite fluctuating concentrations of molecules. Viewing transcriptional networks as inference modules explains previous experimental data. I also discover that the particular inference problem determines whether repressors or activators are better.
Next, I explore the genetic underpinnings of two canine models of atrial fibrillation: atrial tachypacing and ventricular tachypacing. Using Affymetrix microarrays, I find that the genetic signatures of these two models are significantly different both in magnitude and in class of genes expressed. The ventricular tachypacing model has thousands of transcripts differentially expressed with little overlap between 24 hours and 2 weeks, suggesting independent mechanisms. The atrial tachypacing model demonstrates an adaptation as the number of genes found changed decreases with increasing time to the point that no genes are changed at 6 weeks. I use higher level analysis to find that extracellular matrix components are among the most changed in ventricular tachypacing and that genes like connective tissue growth factor may be responsible.
Finally, I generalize the main problem of microarray analysis into an evaluation problem of choosing between two competing options based on the scores of many independent judges. In this context, I rediscover the voting paradox and compare two different solutions to this problem: the sum rule and the majority rule. I find that the accuracy of a decision depends on the distribution of the judges' scores. Narrow distributions are better solved with a sum rule, while broad distributions prefer a majority rule. This finding motivates a new algorithm for microarray analysis which outperforms popular existing algorithms on a sample data set and the canine data set examined earlier. A cost analysis reveals that the optimal number of judges depends on the ratio of the cost of a wrong decision to the cost of a judge.
FIGUEREDO, Rosângela da Silva. "Sobre modelos de covariância com erros elípticos: uma abordagem Bayesiana". Universidade Federal de Campina Grande, 2007. http://dspace.sti.ufcg.edu.br:8080/jspui/handle/riufcg/1182.
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Neste trabalho estudamos o Modelo de Covariância com Erro nas Variáveis, onde os erros têm distribuição elípitca, sob uma pespectiva Bayesiana. Para tanto usamos umainformaçãoapriori dotiponãoinformativa,propostaporJeffrey(1961),efazemos inferências sobre os parâmetros do modelo em estudo. Mostramos que, para qualquer modelo de covariância elíptico com erro nas variáveis combinado com a priori do tipo não informativa, conduz às mesmas análises da posteriori correspondente ao modelo de covariância normal com erro nas variáveis.
In this work the Model of Covariance with error in their variables will be studied, where these errors have elliptical distributions, under a Bayesian perspective. In order to accomplish this we will use “a priori” information of the not informative type, as proposed forJeffrey(1961),and we will make inferences on the parameters of the studied model. It will be showed that for any model of covariance with elliptical error in their variables, combined with “a priori” information of the not informative type, the results will lead to the same analyses obtained through the posteriori analyses that correspond to the normal model of covariance with errors in their variables.
Prado, Rogério Ruscitto do. "Análise espaço-temporal dos casos de aids no Estado de São Paulo - 1990 a 2004". Universidade de São Paulo, 2008. http://www.teses.usp.br/teses/disponiveis/5/5137/tde-12092008-133818/.
Testo completoIntroduction: The State of São Paulo, with approximately 40% of the notified cases of AIDS in Brazil, offers a favorable opportunity for a space-time analysis of this disease, which can provide a better understanding of the dissemination of the HIV/AIDS. Objective: To evaluate the adequacy of on space-time modeling to analyze the dynamics of AIDS dissemination according to geographic areas. Methods: Cases of AIDS reported to the Sistema de Informação de Agravos de Notificação (National Disease Reporting System) (SINAN - Ministry of Health) from 1990 to 2004, for people aged 15 years or older were selected. Relative risks of aids for each sex for periods of 3 years were created using complete bayesians models assuming local and global geographic dissemination. Results: The performed analyzes showed that these models were adequate to explain the AIDS dissemination in the State of São Paulo and clearly showed the processes of growth among females and in small size cities. Among the 50 cities with the largest relative risks of AIDS in the last period of study the majority were in the countryside. In general estimated growth rates of AIDS among females were between 200% and 300% while for males were between 100% and 200%. Conclusion: The bayesian model with global dissemination was more adequate to explain the AIDS epidemic in the State of São Paulo since no spatial spreading was observed but instead a local expansion of the disease. The models were consistent with the processes of growth among females and in small size cities, described in the literature indicating their adequacy.
Haneuse, Sebastian J. P. A. "Ecological studies using supplemental case-control data /". Thesis, Connect to this title online; UW restricted, 2004. http://hdl.handle.net/1773/9595.
Testo completoHudson, Derek Lavell. "Improving Accuracy in Microwave Radiometry via Probability and Inverse Problem Theory". Diss., CLICK HERE for online access, 2009. http://contentdm.lib.byu.edu/ETD/image/etd3244.pdf.
Testo completoAboalela, Rania Anwar. "An Assessment of Knowledge by Pedagogical Computation on Cognitive Level mapped Concept Graphs". Kent State University / OhioLINK, 2017. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=kent1496941747313396.
Testo completoZhou, Chuan. "A Bayesian model for curve clustering with application to gene expression data analysis /". Thesis, Connect to this title online; UW restricted, 2003. http://hdl.handle.net/1773/9576.
Testo completoBauder, David. "Bayesian Inference for High-Dimensional Data with Applications to Portfolio Theory". Doctoral thesis, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.18452/19598.
Testo completoUsually, the weights of portfolio assets are expressed as a comination of the product of the precision matrix and the mean vector. These parameters have to be estimated in practical applications. But it is a challenge to describe the associated estimation risk of this product. It is demonstrated in this thesis, that a suitable Bayesian approach does not only lead to an easily accessible posteriori distribution, but also leads to easily interpretable risk measures. This also includes for example the default probability of the portfolio at all relevant points in time. To approach this task, the parameters are endowed with their conjugate priors. Using results from the theory of multivariate distributions, stochastic representations for the portfolio parameter are derived, for example for the portfolio weights or the efficient frontier. These representations not only allow to derive Bayes estimates of these parameters, but are computationally highly efficient since all th necessary random variables are drawn from well known and easily accessible distributions. Most importantly, Markov-Chain-Monte-Carlo methods are not necessary. These methods are applied to a multi-period portfolio for an exponential utility function, to the tangent portfolio, to estimate the efficient frontier and also to a general mean-variance approach. Stochastic representations and Bayes estimates are derived for all relevant parameters. The practicability and flexibility as well as specific properties are demonstrated using either real data or simulations.
Silva, Gustavo Miranda da. "Monotonicidade em testes de hipóteses". Universidade de São Paulo, 2010. http://www.teses.usp.br/teses/disponiveis/45/45133/tde-01102014-114225/.
Testo completoMost of the texts in the literature of hypothesis testing deal with optimality criteria for a single decision problem. However, there are, to a lesser extent, texts on the problem of simultaneous hypothesis testing and the logical consistency of the optimal solutions of such procedures. For instance, the following property should be observed in simultaneous hypothesis testing: if a hypothesis H implies a hypothesis H0, then, on the basis of the same sample observation, the rejection of the hypothesis H0 necessarily should imply the rejection of the hypothesis H. Here, this property is called monotonicity. To investigate this property under a more general point of view, in this work, it is dened rst the notion of a class of hypothesis testing, which extends the test function to a sigma-eld of possible null hypotheses, and then the concept of monotonicity is introduced properly. It is also shown, through some simple examples, that for a xed signicance level, the class of Generalized Likelihood Ratio tests (GLR) does not meet monotonicity, as opposed to tests developed under the Bayesian perspective, such as Bayes tests based on posterior probabilities, Lindleys tests and Full Bayesian Signicance Tests (FBST). Finally, sucient conditions for a class of hypothesis testing to have monotonicity are determined, when possible, under a decision-theoretic approach.
Bays, Matthew Jason. "Stochastic Motion Planning for Applications in Subsea Survey and Area Protection". Diss., Virginia Tech, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/10919/26763.
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Braun, Christelle. "Quantitative Approaches to Information Hiding". Phd thesis, Ecole Polytechnique X, 2010. http://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00527367.
Testo completoBarette, Tammy S. "A Bayesian approach to the estimation of adult skeletal age assessing the facility of multifactorial and three-dimensional methods to improve accuracy of age estimation /". Columbus, Ohio : Ohio State University, 2007. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc%5Fnum=osu1180543680.
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