Tesi sul tema "Asian Financial Crisis"

This study generates an overview of the 1997 Asian financial crisis, from its causes to the consequences. At the same time, it examines the context of the crisis, which includes the review of historical Asian development and the role of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in the financial crisis. Particular attention is given to the crisis‘ impact on the local economy and people. In this it differs from existing research that analyses the impact on its own, this study links the crisis‘ impact to the foreign direct investment (FDI). The impact of the crisis, therefore, is reflected by examining the control power of the FDI money. It examines the crisis‘ impact through focusing on a unique angle of the two elements in the crisis – danger and opportunity. The results show that the social impact of the crisis put local people in danger of unemployment, underemployment, falling real wages and growing social inequality and lowered land and commodity prices, which dramatically reduced the cost of production. Accordingly, the control power of the FDI money increased extensively in the crisis, which represents the increasing danger of unfair exploitation of local labour and enclosure of land and resources which can be seen as opportunities beneficial to the international capitalists.

The financial crisis which hit Southeast Asian countries in July 1997 had a significant impact on the countries' economies and forced governments in the region to undertake programmes of financial restructuring in order to reduce weaknesses in banks' balance sheets, stabilise currencies and, most importantly, to improve the soundness of the banking and financial sectors. The main aim of such policies was to restore confidence and help meet the ongoing challenges associated with financial innovation and globalisation. The causes and consequences of the Asian crisis have been studied extensively in the past decade. However, the literature on the impact of the post-crisis crisis restructuring programmes on bank efficiency, performance and competition, and their evolving relationships, remain rather limited and inconclusive. This study aims to shed some light on these interrelated aspects, with particular reference to the experience of six of the countries mostly affected by the crisis - Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines and Thailand - during their recovery period (1999 to 2005). Results from the efficiency analysis, carried out by means of Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), show evidence of efficiency improvements in the region thereby indicating a positive impact of the restructuring programmes on the banking sector. Between 1999 to 2005 most of the countries in our sample actively followed policies of either closing failing institutions or fostering mergers. As a consequence, bank concentration in the region increased, raising the issue of the impact of the restructuring programmes on the competitive structure of banking markets. We found that, despite increased concentration, competition (assessed by the Panzar-Rosse Hstatistic) also increased leading us to conclude that the structural changes in South East Asia improved the region's banking industry performance without resulting in banks enjoying excessive market power. These lessons from the Asian crisis may prove valuable in the light of current re-structuring of global banking systems in the light of the 2008 credit crisis.

The purpose of this research was to investigate crisis management in the context of the tourism sector by means of a case study of the Malaysian response to the Asian financial crisis. Not only was the reaction of the Malaysian government to the crisis examined but the possibility of developing a strategy to protect the sector against future crises was also explored. Primary data were collected by means of semi-structured interviews with senior Malaysian public and private sector policy makers. Areas of interest addressed included the crisis management measures employed to assist the recovery of the tourism sector; the lessons learnt from the crisis: the potential for public/private sector cooperation to develop a crisis management plan for the tourism sector; and how such a plan might be implemented. It was generally felt by the participants that the measures employed had been effective in restoring the tourism sector status quo, although there was some concern expressed over how long this had taken. It was agreed that there is a need for a sectoral crisis management plan but no consensus as to who should fund it, which figures could be used as indicators of the approach of a crisis and how they should be collected, and what form any such plan should take. This research indicates that there is a case for the government to work with the private sector to develop some sort of crisis management provision for the tourism sector. However, it is apparent that it may be extremely problematic to formulate an appropriate plan and there may be difficulties as to how it should be funded and who should take responsibility for its implementation. It appears that an approach at state level would have more potential than a federal plan but more research in this area is required.

This thesis explores continuity and change in the developmental welfare approach in Thailand following the 1997 Asian financial crisis. It examines both the exogenous and endogenous forces that generated change as well as both the ‘process’ and the ‘content’ of transformation or responses to the crisis. It uses the One Tambon One Product (OTOP) policy as a case study to explore these changes. The principle research question is: To what extent did the post 1997 crisis policy on social protection in Thailand represent a shift from its existing institutional path of developmental welfarism? Extending from this overarching question are subsidiary questions, which guided the thesis. They include: To what extent did the OTOP policy address the social protection gaps that became apparent in the Asian financial crisis? To what extent did the OTOP policy benefit its target population? The thesis uses historical institutionalism (HI) and the role of ideas as the analytic frameworks in analyzing change. The thesis argues that the exogenous shock of the 1997 financial crisis contributed to some departure from the institutional path of developmental welfarism in Thailand. However, the change did not follow the conventional punctuated equilibrium (PE) model under the HI framework in the sense of moving from one equilibrium to another after an exogenous shock. Rather, the radical change that took place after the exogenous shock was gradual. The new set of institutional arrangement prompted significant ideational and institutional transformations. They involved both intended and unintended consequences of incremental shifts in the forms of ‘layering’ ‘drift’ and ‘conversion’ (Streeck and Thelen, 2005). In addition, the thesis argues that the transformation in Thailand after the 1997 financial crisis lies in an intermediate order of change that is found between shifts in policy instrument and a wholesale ‘paradigm shift’ (Hall, 1993). Here, apart from having introduced a new policy such as OTOP, the Thai government engaged in a broader rethinking of Thailand’s developmental welfare path. Moreover, the study finds that the structure of economic development in a developing country context can both promote and impede social protection, rather than only subordinate the latter. The claim is based on the finding that the expansion of economic policy goals in Thailand supported local development and increasing inclusiveness of the informal sector after the 1997 financial crisis. Finally, the thesis argues that social protection delivery or lack thereof reflects contestation of ideas as well as material interests. Both the state and the policy beneficiaries in the OTOP context pushed for their interests when there were gaps between policy formulation and implementation. As a result, changes occurred both in the policy goals and in who benefited from OTOP.

Purpose – The purpose of this research project is to explore the research question – how does the pursuit of agenda of regulatory reforms, post the crisis, influence governance arrangements at banks and assist them in maintaining resilience during subsequent episodes of crises?Research methodology – The project adopts a comparative case study approach involving a mixture of review of secondary resources and fieldwork interviews across East Asian nations. Findings – The project applied the Minskian Financial Instability Hypothesis to the 1997 East Asian crisis. It explored the macro-economic and policy environment during 1990s for highlighting institutional failures at the heart of the crisis. The interview findings offered contextual setting and diverse perspectives for regulatory reforms aimed at improving bank governance, post the crisis. The experience of case study banks outlined the impact of regulatory reforms on banking business models, post the crisis. The role of post-1997-crisis regulatory reforms in bringing about East Asian resilience, during the 2007 crisis, is thus analysed in the research project. Practical implications – The research project provides emerging economy perspective to regulatory reforms and offers policy-level recommendations for banks, regulatory authorities, corporate borrowers, and statutory auditors in maintaining governance standards conductive to financial stability in the long run. Originality – The project claims originality of application, interpretation and evaluation (which are considered as building blocks for “academic contribution”) of an important academic theory in the context of financial crises – Minsky’s Financial Instability Hypothesis. It integrates the aspects of financial instability, regulatory reforms and bank governance in the context of East Asian financial crisis by introducing the concept of “economic responsibilities” of market participants from emerging economies.

Thesis (M.S.)--Central Connecticut State University, 1999.
Thesis advisor: Marie Guarino. " ... in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science [in History]." Includes bibliographical references (leaves 42-45).

It is sometimes purported that one of the factors affecting a firm's value is its capital structure. The event of the 1997 Asian financial crisis was expected to affect the firms' gearing level as the firms' earnings deteriorated and the capital market collapsed. The main objective of this research is to examine empirically the determinants of the capital structure of Malaysian firms. The main additional aim is to study the capital structure pattern following the 1997 financial crisis. Empirical tests were conducted on two different data sets: the first data set is the published data extracted from Datastream and consists of: 572 companies listed on the Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange (KLSE) between 1994 and 2000. The second data set comprises finance managers' responses to a questionnaire survey. Chi-square, Kruskal-Wallis, ANOVA, multiple regression, stepwise regression and logistic regression were utilised to analyse the data. The multiple regression analysis was employed to find the determinants of the capital structure using various account data items provided by Datastream. The gearing differences between the two boards and within the sectors were also analysed using ANOVA and Krukal-Wallis tests. The panel data were evaluated with regard to the gearing pattern following the 1997 currency crisis. Overwhelming evidence on profit was found, with past profitability being the major determinant of gearing. In particular was the support for pecking order theory, in that finance managers had given internal funds the highest priority, followed by debt and equity as a last option. The statistical analysis found a strong negative correlation between liquidity and the gearing ratio for both boards, implying firms considered highly the excess current assets for funding, a conservative approach towards debt management policy. On the other hand, taxation items were not highly significant in capital structure decisions. The results indicate the existence of gearing differences between the main board and the second board gearing with high debt levels employed by second board companies. However, the second board's high gearing is dominated largely by short to medium term bank credit. Differences were also significant between different sectors of companies listed on the main board. Firms' gearing ratios increased significantly following the 1997 financial crisis, and the gearing tended to increase where the company's share prices were highly sensitive towards currency volatility. Also inflation is found to influence the changes in actual and target gearing ratios following the crisis. Recent emphasis on the development of private debt securities may affect the findings of this research in the near future.

Thesis advisor: Zhijie Xiao
This paper attempts to deliver a side-by-side examination of the similarities and differences between the economies of East Asia (Singapore, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Korea Republic, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, and the Philippines) and China. After the devastating 1997 Crisis, many investing eyes have turned to China as the next Asian growth engine. China has been opening its economy to foreign investors and its accession into the World Trade Organization will push for increased transparency and efficiency. The paper discusses the internal and external forces that drove the economies, with focused attention on its financial systems, using pre-crisis data. With foreign banks allowed entry into China by the end of 2006, its financial system will be an important component in economic longevity. Lastly, the question of whether or not China is vulnerable to a crisis is assessed based on the same factors that caused it in East Asia
Thesis (BA) — Boston College, 2006
Submitted to: Boston College. College of Arts and Sciences
Discipline: Economics Honors Program
Discipline: College Honors Program

The emerging Asian economies have different financial system characteristics and exposure to shocks from the advanced economies, but the discussion regarding the role of monetary and macroprudential policies mainly revolve around the same issues. The first one is relating to the lack of understanding of macroprudential policy’s transmission mechanism. The second one is about the role of monetary policy as a financial stabilisation instrument. The third one concerns the interaction between monetary and macroprudential policies as macroeconomic and financial stabilisation instruments. Due to the vulnerabilities of the emerging Asian economies to the volatility of capital inflows, the discussion also involves the role of the capital flow management policy as part of the stabilisation instruments. Utilising a small open economy model that has been designed and calibrated based on the emerging Asian economies characteristics, this research contributes to the discussion on the above issues by studying the transmission of monetary, macroprudential and capital flow management policies and their interactions in facing a certain dominant shock driving the disturbances in the economy, evaluating the macroeconomic and financial stabilisation performance of the policy strategies that combine different policy instruments, and examining how the welfare of economic agents are affected by the implementation of these policy strategies. Model simulations show that not all countercyclical instruments can be used effectively in every shock. There are conditions in which the implementation of macroprudential policy can complement monetary policy to achieve macroeconomic and financial stability, but there are also conditions in which it may be preferable for the policymakers not to implement them. Understanding how a certain shock propagates in the economy and the nature of the interactions among the policy instruments in facing that particular shock are necessary for designing the optimal policy mix that can improve both macroeconomic and financial stability.

Thesis (S.M. and M.C.P.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Urban Studies and Planning, 2004.
Includes bibliographical references (leaf 54).
As one of the most important financial innovations in 1990s, Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities (CMBS) have provided significant amounts of financing for commercial real estate. However, when the Asian and Russian financial crisis hit in 1998, the low rated CMBS market almost dried up and one of the dominant investors Criimi Mae went to Chapter 11 for protection. This study investigates the events systematically from the perspectives of market structure and product development in the context of financial crisis. We found that the private and illiquid market structure and the short term marked-to-market repo financing together resulted in the disequilibrium of the low rated CMBS market during the financial crisis. Information efficiency and more resilient financing mechanism are needed to mitigate the conflicting interest between issuers/underwriters and investors of low rated CMBS.
by Yi Su.
S.M.and M.C.P.

This bachelor thesis in economics examines the Asian financial crisis, the impact on the countries in the region and how well they recovered financially. The countries that are taken into consideration are Japan, Indonesia, South Korea, Philippines, Thailand, Malaysia and Singapore.  The variables used to explain the implications of the crisis are GDP, trade openness, unemployment and current account.

Descriptive statistics show that the most closed economy that was affected by a current account reversal was also the hardest hit in terms of GDP.  The statistics also show that all the countries under observation have recovered to their situation prior to the crisis in terms of GDP, but not in terms of the level of unemployment.

Two regressions that were performed showed the relation between trade openness and the effect of GDP after the crisis, and the relation of trade openness to growth after the crisis. The regressions show that the more closed an economy is the larger the effect of a crisis. At the same time these countries had the highest growth rates after the crisis and were also among the first to recover. Theoretical reasons for these results are given.

Thesis (MBA)--Stellenbosch University, 2000.
ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The Asian financial crisis in mid-1997 highlighted the important role a sound, well regulated and supervised banking industry plays in the economy of a country or region. Although many analysts believe that the Asian crisis arose mainly as a result of factors external to the countries in question, this paper clearly highlights the role fragile banking industries within these countries played in the crisis. The Asian financial crisis was not the first of its kind, with similar crises erupting in Argentina, Mexico and other Latin American countries in the early 1990s. There is a belief that banking crises occur only in emerging and developing countries. Whilst the incidence of crises in emerging markets is higher as a result of higher risk profiles, poor regulation and supervision and government and political interference, the United States Savings and Loan Crisis of the early 1980s is evidence that banking crises are not limited to emerging economies. This study is divided into three parts, namely a theoretical literature study on the soundness of banking systems, an analysis of the Asian financial crisis and an analysis of the South African banking industry, with particular reference to the "Big Four" South African banks. The first part of this study deals with the theory relating to bank soundness, banking in emerging markets and a brief overview of the various risks faced by banks. A theoretical study is also undertaken of the causes of and reasons for individual bank failure, as in the banking industry a crisis of confidence often spills over from an individual bank in distress to other solvent and well operated banks within the industry. This is known as the contagion effect. The second part of the study deals with an in-depth analysis of the causes of the Asian financial crisis, with specific emphasis on the role banks played in fuelling the crisis. Recommended solutions are put forward in an attempt to avoid future possible crises of this magnitude. South Africa is classified as an emerging or developing country by international economists and therefore is often perceived to pose greater risks to foreign investors. The third part of this study deals with an in-depth analysis of the soundness of the South African banking industry concentrating on the financial performance of the "Big Four" - Amalgamated Banks of South Africa Limited, The First Rand Group, Nedcor Limited and Standard Bank Investment Corporation Limited. The "Big Four" make up close to 80% of the total market share of the South African banking industry. One could imply that if the "Big Four" are financially sound, then the South African banking industry could be classified as sound. Past experience has revealed that the failure of a small bank does not have any significant impact on the local banking industry (i.e. no contagion effect). This study will show that there is no single mathematical model available to analyse the probability of bank failure or bank system soundness. Rather a wide range of possible causes, both micro and macro-economic, can influence the soundness of a bank or banking system. The study will reflect that although South Africa may be classified as an emerging economy in view of the characteristics of its economic make-up, the banking industry is by no means "emerging". South Africa has one of the most highly regulated and supervised banking industries in the world. Furthermore, whilst maybe not efficient in terms of utilisation of capital and returns on equity, coupled with fairly high cost structures, the industry is profitable, with adequate margins, substantial reserves and well structured loan risk profiles complemented by sound and conservative management policies, overseen by a highly competent regulatory authority. One could therefore conclude that given the soundness of the "Big Four", the South African banking system may be classified as sound.
AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die Asiatiese finansiële krisis van 1997 het die belangrike rol van 'n gesonde en gereguleerde bankstelsel in die ekonomie van 'n land of streek beklemtoon. Alhoewel baie navorsers glo dat die Asiatiese krisis 'n gevolg was van eksterne faktore buite die beheer van die betrokke nasies, sal hierdie werkstuk klem lê op die rol van wankelrige bankstelsels in hierdie krisis. Die Oosterse finansiële krisis was nie enig in soort nie en is soortgelyk aan krisisse in Agentinië, Mexico en ander Suid-Amerikaanse ekonomië in die vroeë negentigerjare. Daar is 'n verdere opvatting dat finansiële krisisse beperk is tot ontwikkelende nasies as gevolg van hierdie lande se hoër risikoprofiel, onvoldoende wetgewing en toesighouding en politieke inmenging. Tot 'n groot mate is dit wel die geval, maar die 'United States Savings and Loans' krisis in die tagtigerjare het hierdie wanopvatting bevraagteken. Hierdie werkstuk is in drie afdelings verdeel - 'n teoretiese navorsingsprojek oor die stabiliteit van bankstelsels, 'n ontleding van die Asiatiese finansiële krisis en 'n ontleding van die stabiliteit van die Suid-Afrikaanse bankstelsel met verwysing na die "Groot Vier" banke. Die eerste deel van hierdie werkstuk handel oor die teorie van bankstabiliteit, die bankwese in ontwikkelende ekonomië en 'n kort samevatting van die risiko's waaraan banke blootgestel is. Teoretiese navorsing word ook gedoen oor die redes en oorsake van individuele bankmislukkings. Die rede hiervoor is dat 'n vertrouenskrisis in 'n individuele bank dikwels oorvloei na die gesonde banke binne dieselfde industrie. Die term hiervoor is die aansteking -effek. Die tweede deel van hierdie werkstuk dek 'n in-diepte ontleding van die Asiatiese finansiële krisis, met spesifieke verwysing na die rol van banke in die krisis. Aanbevelings word verder gemaak in 'n poging om soortgelyke, toekomstige krisisse te voorkom. Volgens internasionale ekonome is Suid-Afrika 'n ontwikkelende nasie en hou as sulks groter risiko's in vir beleggers. Die derde afdeling van hierdie werkstuk dek 'n in-diepte ontleding oor die stabiliteit van die Suid-Afrikaanse "Groot Vier" banke: Amalgamated Banks of South Africa Beperk, Die First Rand Groep, Nedcor Groep en Standard Bank Investment Corporation Beperk. Die "Groot Vier" beslaan 80% van die totale mark van die Suid-Afrikaanse bankwese. Hiervan kan afgelei word dat sou die "Groot Vier" finansiële stabiliteit ondervind, dan kan die Suid-Afrikaanse bankwese met reg as gesond beskou word. Ondervinding in Suid-Afrika het gewys dat die mislukking van 'n klein bank nie 'n groot invloed op die plaaslike bankwese het nie (die aansteking - effek). Hierdie werkstuk sal aantoon dat daar geen wiskundige of ekonomiese model beskikbaar is om 'n bankmislukking vroegtydig en korrek te voorspel nie - ook nie om die stabiliteit van 'n bankstelsel te waarborg nie. 'n Wye reeks moontlike oorsake, beide mikro- en makro-ekonomies van aard, kan die stabiliteit van 'n bank of die bankwese beïnvloed. Hierdie werkstuk sal deurlopend uitwys dat nieteenstaande Suid-Afrika se status as "ontwikkelende" nasie, die bankwese allermins "ontwikkelend" is. Suid-Afrika het een van die mees gereguleerde bankstelsels in die wêreld. Terwyl die aanwending van kapitaal en die opbrengs daarop nie altyd bevredigend is nie, is die opbrengs vir beleggers redelik hoog en die industrie winsgewend. Winsmarges is groot, diepte in reserves is duidelik teenwoordig en die korrekte, gestruktureerde risiko profiel van leners weerspieël stabiele en konserwatiewe bestuurspraktyke. Samevattend kan gesê word dat danksy die "Groot Vier", die Suid-Afrikaanse bankwese kerngesond is.

碩士
國立中央大學
財務金融研究所
93
The purpose of this paper is to examine the exchange rate exposure of industry portfolios in Indonesia, Korea and Thailand before and after the Asian crisis. We follow the methodology suggested by Adler and Dumas (1983), and our study period is from July 1989 to June 2004. We find that industry portfolios in all three countries show significant exposure coefficients to exchange rate fluctuations when considering the potential correlations between the market returns and the changes in exchange rates. In addition, the exchange rate regimes and distinct economic events such as the currency crisis have significant influences on most industry sectors in these countries. Finally, the empirical results show that some industry sectors are affected by the Asian financial crisis.

博士
國立臺灣大學
政治學研究所
92
The Global business cycle has been recovery gradually. However, the global economy was in depression since 1997. For understanding the reason, we have to trace back Asian Financial Crisis. We assume that the institutional change initiators (interest group or government) and the institutional change patterns (induced institutional change and imposed institutional change) are highly related. The patterns of institutional change lead to institutional changes while the institutions change behavior patterns and finally cause the event. We argue that huge amount of short-term capital flows is the main reason of the crisis. In this dissertation, we examine six empirical cases to illustrate what type of institutional change pattern the Asian financial liberalization is and why the Asian governments adopted the pattern. To prove the hypothesis is correct, we analyze four serious-damaged countries during Asian financial crisis: Malaysia, Indonesia, South Korea and Thailand; while we also discuss two slight- damaged countries: Taiwan and China as comparison. From these cases, we may extract the most important factor by comparative methodology and organize a theoretical framework. The dissertation would like to answer the following questions: For New- Industrialized Countries (NICs), what kind of institutional choice will bring the economic recession and why it brings the depression? There are several variables in our assumption: the institutional change initiator, the patterns of institutional change, the modes of institution and the behavioral patterns. In the assumption of Neo-institutionalism, the main initiators of institutional change are state and organizations. The former could be government (bureaucrats) and the later may be organizations (interest groups). The patterns of institutional change are imposed institutional change and induced institutional change。The former pattern keeps the institutions remain public while the later transfers institutions into private goods. The following definition is the modes of institution: the financial institutions in East Asia countries could be financial liberalized system and financial regulated system. Malaysia (before September 1998), Indonesia, Thailand and South Korea adopted the developmental strategy and opened the financial boundary; while China and Taiwan adopted the restricted financial openness system. From the view of globalization, the financial liberalization is more efficient than the financial regulated system; however, the way the system changed makes the results different. The induced institutional change will transfer the public good into private one, and the market failure will exist in the market. The financial liberalization becomes the private goods of some specific people to obtain foreign capital. When the economic index became weak, the unstable capital fled and caused economic depression. We demonstrate the institutional and non-institutional factors to explain Asian Financial Crisis in literature review. The institutional factors illustrate the relationship among political, economic institutions and economic performance in new industrial countries, while the non-institutional factors exclude the political and economic institutional variables. We use financial institutionalism, regime type, globalization (financial liberalization and capital flow)(institutional approach), cultural condition (crony capitalism), total productivity factors and the macroeconomic condition before the crisis (non-institutional approach). In our literature review, we find that the regime capacity and the financial liberalization are the active evidences to explain why the Asian Financial Crisis might happen. The property rights concept of the institutional approach is used to explain how the Asian governments interact with the enterprises and the relationship between the financial liberalization and the short-term capital flows. In chapter 2, we analyze four cases: Malaysia, Indonesia, South Korea and Thailand. Despite the developmental strategies of these countries are different, they are induced to adopt the same way to ‘liberalize’ the financial boundary. The first example is Malaysia. After Dr. Mohamad Mahathir became the premier in 1981, the government adopted the New Economic Policy (NEP) to stabilize and stimulate economic growth. This new developmental model was imitated by other Southeast Asia countries. Meanwhile, the economic growth creates a new class which is formed by mainly rich Malaysians. After Anwar Ibrahim stepped on the political stage, these people are adherent to Anwar for changing the industrial and financial policies. In 1997, the economic growth was shutdown by the huge amount of capital outflow. In the beginning, the economic power was still controlled by Anwar, but he was not trusted by Mahathir after 1 year because of his agreement with IMF. Mahathir grasped the power again and imposed strict financial regulations. It symbolizes the initiative power for institutional change was switched swiftly from the interest group to the bureaucrats. The condition in Indonesia is quite similar to Malaysia. Under the period of Thojib Suharto’s ‘New Order’, the Indonesian and Chinese enterprisers are allies of Suharto. After 1990s, the induced institutional changes became significant and the financial boundaries were opened under the pressure of interest groups and international powers. When the economic situation was seriously damaged, Suharto moved his power to the vice president and stepped down. However, the economic, political and racial situations are still in chaos. After B. J. Habibie stepped down, the political succession was still unstable. The opposition party candidate: Abdurrahman Wahid took the presidential position but soon (2 years later) replaced by Megawati Sukarnoputri. The political situation in Indonesia is always disarrayed and the economic growth is low. The Indonesian government accepted the rescue package but it failed to reform the crony structure. Because the interest groups in Indonesia are still in the power to control the institutional change, the economy is still in depression. The third case is South Korea which was in crisis in the term of Kim Young Sam. After Kim, Kim Dae Jung won the presidential position. He was the leader of the opposition party for the past years before he became the president and has little relationship with the chaebols. Under the determination and action of Kim’s government, the chaebols are divided into small enterprises or shaped into a less scale. He didn’t spend the government budget to save the large individual enterprise. The way South Korea reform is taking back the initial power of institutional change thus improves the economic growth. The last example is Thailand; it reformed the financial structure according to the IMF remedies. The IMF rescue package saved the economic depression and crackdown the crony banking groups. The four examples were positive in response the assumption of the dissertation. We introduce two slightly damaged countries (Taiwan and China) during the Asian financial crisis in the third chapter. Chinese government started the economic reform after 1978 but the state enterprises are still the main actors in the economic system. There are only few capitalists in China and they can’t influence the state machine to change the government policies. Generally speaking, the future of Chinese economy is still in the control of Chinese communists’ party and the bureaucrats. In other words, the initial power of institutional change remains in the state. The Taiwanese government didn’t create the conglomerates but While the conglomerates enlarge because of the state’s economic policies, they start to centralize the power into few units (usually families). When the conglomerates gather enough power, they start to share and grasp the economic power from the government. No matter in authoritarian or democratic regimes, they need the support from the centralized conglomerates. Throughout the politicians, they control the decision- making process. In other words, the Asian developing countries were losing the state autonomy gradually. The financial policies should be the public goods in all countries, while in these countries; they are private goods, only beneficial to few interest groups. Therefore, the financial liberalization is premature for these countries. If the state autonomy is strong enough, the regimes will close the financial boundary for the reason of state (such as China). However, the financial liberalization is advantageous to the conglomerates for attracting foreign capital. Finally, the banker is on the conglomerates’ side. In Taiwan, the KMT government’s earlier developmental strategies didn’t create conglomerates which could influence politics. The main composition of Taiwanese economy is mid-small scale enterprises. After 1990s, the local fictions and the ‘black- gold’ politics spread speedily while the financial regulations were still strict. We analyze the two cases for understanding why the financial crisis could be controlled under bureaucratic institutional change. The Chapter four will integrate the six cases into the framework. We trace back the Asian industrial policies and the linkage with the development of the conglomerates. The conclusion is that the crony institutional change caused the financial liberalization which leaded the huge amount of capital flows. In developing countries, the institutional change should be under the bureaucratic control .

碩士
國立政治大學
經濟研究所
92
The 1997 East Asian Crises had made exchange rate depreciations and bank bankruptcies. Broadly speaking, it can be divided into currency crisis and banking crisis. Nominal exchange rate of any season in a year, which is depreciated over 25% and 10% than last season, is called a currency crisis. Lots of papers demonstrate that overvaluation is a precursor of a currency crash. Furthermore, developing countries have opened capital markets so rapidly that it became the tinderbox of crises. To analyze the phenomenon, this thesis first compile Taiwan’s financial weighted real effective exchange rate index, then examine exchange rates, relative prices (compare to American consumer price index), and net financial account of Taiwan, Indonesia, Korea, Philippine, and Thailand with cointegrated test to identify the long run equilibrium relationships between variables; then adding error terms into models to estimates vector error correction model (VECM). The empirical results show that financial account and relative price influence exchange rate significantly.

碩士
國立中興大學
國際政治研究所
92
The financial globalization has formed a tide, the overall performance for the money market expand rapidly, the opening degree for money market in various countries is more and more high, the circulation of capital is greatly speeds up, the financial commodity innovation emerge in an endless stream, the finance policy in various countries'' influence each other increases constantly. Furthermore, it causes the global finance intercourse with each other more and more toward integration. The advanced countries puts the finance safety and military conflict in the national policy decision-making consideration, regards as the threat origin for the national security. It also constructs overall policy in each of the reform policy and financial security net in order to reveal the determination for pursuing and protecting the financial safety. This is because the finance is the factor for national survival and development. If financial crisis will initiate the economic recession or the growth, it will possibly cause the society turbulent. The ability and the ruling legitimacy for the country or government will receive the question. The political power exchanges ownerships if it’s not severe, it cause national turbulent if it’s severe. The national security could be put in great danger. This article 1997 is according to Eastern Asian finance crisis occurrence and the reform policy in each country and to studies the financial question and the financial security on Taiwan. Using the characteristic for measuring national financial security and to testify the crisis-outbreak countries such as: Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia and so on, it all conforms that all of these countries meet the safety standards; nevertheless the crises still break out in these countries. It should apply similarly to Taiwan. Based on the same characteristic to measure the financial system safety in Taiwan after 1997, it is within the scope of the standards. Taiwan is exposed to the financial hazard, but not to an immediate financial crisis. Capital inadequacy and financial system problem are deemed to be the most uncertain factors and pitfalls. The government should follow the right step and processing with speed. Facing the opening market for joining WTO finance, and the financial globalization transfer effect increases the financial security crisis. When opening policy for foreign capital investment the stock market, the government should measure every crisis characteristic and the defend system and should compare the past and be more careful when facing challenge. The study hereby makes the following suggestion: First. The company policy is the first challenge when the domestic bank enters the new century. Secondly, constructs the financial defend system. Thirdly, cultivate the specialized financial person. Fourth, enhance and assist the basic level of financial institution. Fifth, enhance the crisis management. Sixth, establishment finance early warning analyzes and tracks the inspection work. Seventh, enhances the enterprise morals and virtue. Eighth, enhance the public-operated bank privately operated and reduces officially holds the stock ratio.

Lam Man Ling.
Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 1999.
Includes bibliographical references (leaves 78-81).
Abstracts in English and Chinese.
ABSTRACT CHINESE --- p.iv
ENGLISH --- p.v
ACKNOWLEGEMENT --- p.vi
LISTS OF TABLES --- p.vii
LISTS OF ILLUSTRATIONS --- p.viii
LISTS OF APPENDICES --- p.xi
CHAPTER
Chapter ONE --- INTRODUCTION --- p.1
Chapter TWO --- LITERATURE REVIEW --- p.4
Chapter 2.1 --- The Arguments for the Existence of the J- Curve --- p.4
Chapter 2.2 --- The Arguments against the Existence of the J-Curve --- p.7
Chapter THREE --- THE STUDY OF J-CURVE EFFECT ON THE TRADE BALANCE --- p.10
Chapter 3.1 --- The Methodology and Model --- p.10
Chapter 3.2 --- Data Description --- p.14
Chapter 3.3 --- Empirical Analysis on VAR Models by Using Level Data --- p.15
Chapter 3.3.1 --- The Combinations of Variables in Twelve Models --- p.15
Chapter 3.3.2 --- Empirical Results Analysis on Both Univariate and VAR Approach --- p.19
Chapter 3.3.3 --- Individual Model Description --- p.22
Chapter 3.4 --- Empirical Analysis on VAR Models by Using Differenced Data --- p.28
Chapter 3.4.1 --- Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and Zivot-Andrews (ZA) Unit Root Test --- p.28
Chapter 3.4.2 --- The Comparison of Empirical Results on Using the Level and Differenced Data --- p.33
Chapter 3.5 --- The Comparison of the Elasticity at Means of Japan and Singapore by Using the Previous Empirical Results --- p.35
Chapter FOUR --- THE PATTERN OF POST-ASIAN FINANCIAL CRISIS TRADE BALANCE --- p.39
Chapter 4.1 --- Hong Kong --- p.40
Chapter 4.2 --- Indonesia --- p.41
Chapter 4.3 --- Japan --- p.42
Chapter 4.4 --- Malaysia --- p.44
Chapter 4.5 --- The Philippines --- p.45
Chapter 4.6 --- Singapore --- p.46
Chapter 4.7 --- South Korea --- p.48
Chapter 4.8 --- Taiwan --- p.49
Chapter 4.9 --- Thailand --- p.50
Chapter FIVE --- CONCLUSION --- p.52
APPENDICES --- p.53
ILLUSTRATIONS --- p.67
BIBLIOGRAPHY --- p.78

碩士
義守大學
財務金融學系碩士班
98
This study focus East Asian market, refers to investment strategies by De Bondt and Thaler (1985) and Jegadeesh and Titman (1993) with positive appropriate investment strategies in East Asian markets, and to distinguish the financial crisis period and non-crisis period, verify abnormal returns. The portfolio useing 1,3,6,9 and 12 months for formation period , and continuous holding 1,3 and 6 months. The empirical results show that when financial crisis period, contrarian strategies are profitable on the Taiwan stock market. There is a overreaction phenomena, loser portfolio and winner portfolio will be reversed, so get a positive abnormal return, because in the financial crisis period, investor sentiment for the panic, caused investors to avoid regret.

碩士
淡江大學
東南亞研究所
89
The occurring of the Southeast Asian Financial Crisis in 1997 made the long-term economically prosperous and successful NICs been through an unprecedented financial big bang. Thailand, as the source of the financial crisis, its economic structure and its financial market has been much heavily influenced than expected. Although the occurring of the financial crisis in Thailand had its own structural economic problem, however, under the financial liberalized and internationalized climate which arisen during the 1990s, the defective monetary system and the inappropriate financial supervision resulted in the financial chaos and became one of the main reason of the financial crisis. Therefore, this paper will dissect the causes of the financial crisis from economic analysis aspect. Soon after Thailand government accepted the help of 17.2 billion U.S. dollars from IMF and other institutions on August of 1997; they proposed a complete and comprehensive financial reform policy on 14th of August of 1998 and adopted effective strategies to proceed diverse financial reconstructions positively, then the macroeconomic situation came stable immediately. But the monetary system still could not be totally solved under its vicious circle of high non-performing loans. The reconstruction process and experiences that the Thailand government had experienced while solving their financial crisis was highly concerned, which mainly comprise: (1) the establishment of specialized institutions and the model of integral operation; (2) the concrete outcome assessment of financial reform; (3) the changes and the future trend of the financial industry. This paper will discuss the inspirations that the financial reconstruction model in Thailand has brought as well as the influences and the follow-up problems after the financial crisis from the cause and effect and the financial industrial condition of the monetary institutional changes in Thailand. Making a comprehensive survey of the financial reform in Thailand, they''ve made substantially changes in laws, monetary institution, policy goals and economic condition. This paper will also discuss based on above-mentioned conditions the changes of competitive situations in Thai financial market under the integrated global financial structure. Especially at present period while many foreign capitals that included Taiwanese enterprises making merger and acquisition in Thailand, which cause strikes to the general financial operations and affaires. Taiwan seems to be lighter damaged than other southeast countries. As the Thai government cancelled their financial industrial restraints, and according to the investments of Taiwanese enterprises in Thailand have achieve a respectable scale, it is a great opportunity for Taiwanese financial industrialist to consider carefully of taking regional financial arrangement to cope with the upcoming global financial service industrial single market. Therefore, this paper will analyze as well the present developments of Taiwanese financial industry in Thailand.

碩士
朝陽大學
財務金融系碩士班
88
The efficiency of futures market is an important issue for market part-icipants, since the performance of futures markets depends on market effic-iency. International investors pay much attention not only to Asian stock markets, but also to the futures markets. The objective of the study inve-stigate the Asian futures market’s efficiency and unbiasedness. A coint-egration approach under the distributed lag and adjusted expectation model was applied to the index futures markets for Nikkei Stock Average (225), Hang Seng Index, Kospi 200, MSCI Taiwan Stock Index and Taiwan Stock Exchange Capitalization Weighted Stock Index. In addition, a dummy va-riables were included in models to test the effect of the Asian financial crisis on the price behavior. If spot and futures prices are non-stationary, we have to use cointegra-tion approach to estimate models and test hypotheses. The empirical results are as follows: ﹝1﹞ All stock-price-index futures were all non-stationary. Futures and spot prices are stationary after first order differentiation. ﹝2﹞There existed co-integrated relationship between futures and spot prices for all markets. ﹝3﹞Did not reject, Kospi 200, Nikkei 225, and MSCI Taiwan Stock Index did not reject the hypothesis of market efficiency with 1% significance level; however Hang Seng Index did. ﹝4﹞All futures prices were unbiased for casters of associated future spot pr-ices in the long term. ﹝5﹞The price behavior of Nikkei 225, Hang Seng Index, Kospi 200 and, MSCI Taiwan Stock Index markets were affected by Asian financial crisis.

碩士
國立高雄第一科技大學
金融營運所
96
This thesis employs ex-post test of arbitrage and regression analysis to examine the extents of mispricings and arbitrage profits during the Asian financial crisis period. The empirical evidence is based on three stock index futures contracts: the Nikkei 225 index futures contract, the Hang Seng index futures contract, and the KOSPI 200 (South Korean composite stock index 200) index futures contract. The study period covers July 1, 1997 to December 31, 1999. The empirical results can be summarized as follows: The degrees of mispricings and arbitrage profits are greater during the Asian crisis period than in the other periods for the three index futures. Additionally, the degree of mispricing for the Nikkei 225 index futures is significantly smaller compared to the Hang Seng and the KOSPI 200 index futures.

碩士
國立暨南國際大學
國際企業學系
91
This thesis analyze the exchange rates’ daily data of 9 Asia Nations, such as Thailand, Malaysia, Philippine, Korea, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Taiwan, China and Japan, from January 1995 to January 2003, during the period of Asia Financial Crisis. The movement of exchange rates affected by the country’s economy situation and its exchange rate policy are also studied. Based on the three VaR Models, (Historical Simulation, Variance-Covariance Approach and Bootstrap Method), the character and movement of exchange rate VaR are described. The results show that the order of VaR in these 9 nations is Indonesia Rupiah, South Korean Won, Thai Baht, Malaysian Ringgit, Philippine Peso, Japanese Yen, Taiwan Dollar, Hong Kong Dollar and Renminbi. Both the Renminbi and Hong Kong Dollar are stable, which it has smallest fluctuation. The character of these three models are that Bootstrap Method has the largest VaR, then Variance-Covariance Approach, Historical Simulation. The Bootstrap Method’s exchange rate VaR movement has zigzag shape, and sometimes has extreme values. And the Historical Simulation has the conservative results.

碩士
國立臺灣大學
財務金融學研究所
88
This paper explores the behavior of institutional investors during the Asian Financial Crisis. We examined the relations between foreign portfolio investment fund flows and movements in the foreign exchange and stock markets of host countries and found that foreign fund flows are hardly the decisive cause of the crisis. In addition, we utilized the Granger causality test for the NAVs and share prices of 23 closed-end country funds which invest in crisis-affected Asian countries and established a vector autoregressive (VAR) model to analyze the impulse-response effect. Based on our model, fund NAVs significantly influence the share prices in the U.S., but the opposite doesn''t hold. Besides, over 30% of the variance of share price returns is explained by NAV returns lagging one period.

碩士
淡江大學
大陸研究所
90
Title of Thesis:A Study of Fiscal Problems in Total pages:99 China after Asian Financial Crisis Key Word: Asian Financial Crisis,China, Fiscal Policy,Macroeconomics,Fiscal Problems Name of Institute:Graduate Institute of China Study,Busuness Division, Tamkang University Graduate date:June,2002 Degree conferred:MBA Name of student:Cheng, Fu Che Advisor:Dr. Fu, Feng Cheng 鄭 富 澤 傅 豐 誠 博士 Abstract: Although the financial crisis in Asia has brought great impact on Mainland China, the domestic market or economic condition grew and developed steadily, maintaining at the rate of 8%. This can be attributed to the well-application of the financial and the monetary policy. Even before the financial crisis took place in Asia, there had been problems pertaining to Mainland’s economic policies. The 1993 inflation and the following deflation since 1996 result in the plunge in economic efficiency, building up more barriers for enterprises in the manufacturing procedure. In addition to the sluggish financial reform, the primary factor of this stagnancy comes to deflation. Accordingly, with low investment rates as well as the monetary devaluation among nations in the Southeast Asia, the whole scene has been a downside in economic growth. The authorities concerned in Mainland China has sought ways to stop this increasing deterioration by government funding, with a view to stimulating commerce and investment. This short-term prosperity has come to a stop by 1999, coming short of the expected results of the monetary policies. The factors are highlighted as follows: 1. Great government spending must co-exist with the expectancy of a large economic growth. Similarly, such funding policy has to collaborate with the consumer needs in order that the greatest effects to be achieved. With the monotonous nature in China’s economy, though a short-term achievement can be expected via a more positive government handling, the weakening economic prospect is an inevitable fact owing to an inefficient execution of the monetary policy. 2. The increasing amount of government spending does not quite meet the needs of a transformative nation (China), resulting in huge deficits. The issuing of national debts, in particular, contributes to the continual hollowing of the treasury. This very investment, with a category too large to really help boost the economy, has all along germinated other debts out of pointless spending on ill-planned infrastructure. 3. As is evidenced in Chapter 4, the increase of commercial activities plays a key role in economic growth. The fact is that, however, commercialism cannot be the sole booster to economic growth. Under such circumstances, the only positive solution to rejuvenate a nation’s economy is by the increase of government spending on investment. This very investment, to be noted specifically, should be guided under a sound economic planning, lest it should degenerate into ill-schemed allotment.

碩士
國立暨南國際大學
國際企業學系
90
This research constructs the dimension of internationalization based on the viewpoint of markets in order to evaluate the relationship between internationalization and operating performance. We further investigate whether or not the 1997 Asian financial crisis results in a structure change of the impact of internationalization on firms’ performance. This paper collects a panel data set for the period from 1996 to 1999. We find that there exists an inverted U shape between market breadth and operating performance. Market breadth has less positive effects on operating performance after the 1997 Asian financial crisis. Before the crisis, the increase in debt ratio has increased business risks, leading to decline in operating performance; this effect becomes much more significant after the Asian financial crisis.