Letteratura scientifica selezionata sul tema "Allocation officer"

This study examines dimensions of fraud diamond against the intention of financial fraud in village fund allocation. Based on fraud diamond theory that is used in public organizations, especially in the management of village funds. This study also includes religiosity as a factor that can moderate the effect of pressure, opportunity, rationality and capability on fraudulent intentions in the Village Fund Allocation. The research sample is selected purposively: the Technical Implementer of Village Financial Management (PTPKD) or village officials responsible for managing village funds in the Special Region of Yogyakarta. The data collection technique using a questionnaire to answer the dimensions of the fraud diamond, namely pressure, opportunity, rationality, and capability, as well as the variables of religiosity and fraud intention. Based on the test results, pressure and weak internal control system had a positive and significant effect on the fraud intention. Meanwhile, religiosity harms fraud intention in village fund allocation. The results also show that religiosity reduces pressure and a weak internal control system intends to allocate village funds fraudulently. This study explains that the village-level government officer as an agent takes actions that want to benefit themselves, whilst they are given the authority to manage financial allocation given from the central government. This behaviour occurred because of pressure, opportunity, rationalization and capability. This research provides insights and ways to control fraudulent behaviour in village fund allocations when the factors that cause fraudulent intentions in village fund allocations are known. This study examines dimensions of fraud diamond against the intention of financial fraud in village fund allocation. Based on fraud diamond theory that is used in public organizations, especially in the management of village funds. This study also includes religiosity as a factor that can moderate the effect of pressure, opportunity, rationality and capability on fraudulent intentions in the Village Fund Allocation. The research sample is selected purposively: the Technical Implementer of Village Financial Management (PTPKD) or village officials responsible for managing village funds in the Special Region of Yogyakarta. The data collection technique using a questionnaire to answer the dimensions of the fraud diamond, namely pressure, opportunity, rationality, and capability, as well as the variables of religiosity and fraud intention. Based on the test results, pressure and weak internal control system had a positive and significant effect on the fraud intention. Meanwhile, religiosity harms fraud intention in village fund allocation. The results also show that religiosity reduces pressure and a weak internal control system intends to allocate village funds fraudulently. This study explains that the village-level government officer as an agent takes actions that want to benefit themselves, whilst they are given the authority to manage financial allocation given from the central government. This behaviour occurred because of pressure, opportunity, rationalization and capability. This research provides insights and ways to control fraudulent behaviour in village fund allocations when the factors that cause fraudulent intentions in village fund allocations are known.

The subject of this research is the formation of the higher command personnel of the foreign order regiments in 1654. The article examines the details of the biographies of 37 commanders of the foreign order regiments that existed by the beginning of the Russo-Polish War of 1654–1667, namely their origin in Russia, foreign service experience, production in the ranks, ethnic composition, attitude towards Orthodoxy, army allocation in the campaign of 1654, and share of troops they led in the chief armies. The work is based on the wide array of documentary materials of IInozemsky Prikaz (Office for the Affairs of the Foreigners) and Posolsky Prikaz (Ambassadorial Office); some of the materials are newly introduced to the scientific discourse. This article is first to explore the biographies of majority of commanders of foreign order regiments in 1654. Analysis is conducted on their origin, production in the Russian prior to the Russo-Polish War, participation in the campaign of 1654, ethnic composition, confession; classification is offered based on the service experience in Western European countries. The analysis of officer “services” acknowledges that the foreign order regiments in the chief armies were led by the most competent newcomer foreigners with the Western European military experience. The young Russian officers service led by the experienced foreigners became a pivotal stage in the formation of the national officer corps.

Each job field (branch) in the Army requires a unique set of skills and talents of the officers assigned. Officers who demonstrate the required skills are often more successful in their assigned branch. To better understand how success is described across branches, research was conducted using text mining and text analysis of a data set of Officer Evaluation Reports (OERs). This research looked for common trends and discrepancies across varying branches and like groups of branches by analyzing the narrative portion of OERs. Text analysis methods examined words and bigrams commonly used to describe varying degrees of performance by officers. Topic modeling using Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) was also conducted on top rated narratives to investigate trends and discrepancies in clustering narratives. Findings show that qualitative narratives for the top two performance designations fail to differentiate between officers’ varying levels of performance regardless of branch.

In the present time, there are lot of web and software developer who provides different types of databased and online system to ease the burden of the different supply officer’s/inventory officers of different companies and government sectors but Cagayan State University is one of the big universities that remained inventory management in a manual way. This study together with the development of SEIMTMS was conducted to innovate the current system used and to abolish the difficulties and challenges encountered by the Supply Office staffs in inventory management, record keeping, monitoring and tracking, and report generation. Classification and clustering techniques were utilized to produce information and comprehensive decision support reports that aids the Supply Officer and University administration on decision- making and budget allocation. Furthermore, the system used Clustering technique together with MFP algorithm to forecast the frequently purchased supplies and frequently repaired equipment. These decision support reports are essential for Office Heads in identifying items to be purchased for a particular quarter. With the use of ISO/IEC 25010:2011 Software Quality Standards, the system was evaluated by IT Experts with a mean 4.67, qualitatively described as “very graet extent”.

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to develop a methodology for automatically determining the optimal allocation of police officers in accordance with the division and organization of labor. Design/methodology/approach – The problem is defined as the problem of the goal programming for which the mathematical model of mixed integer programming was developed. In modeling of the scheduling problem the approach police officer/scheme, based on predefined scheduling patterns, was used. The approach is applied to real data of a police station in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Findings – This study indicates that the determination of monthly scheduling policemen is complex and challenging problem, which is usually performed without the aid of software (self-rostering), and that it can be significantly facilitated by the introduction of scheduling optimization approach. Research limitations/implications – The developed mathematical model, in its current form, can directly be applied only to the scheduling of police officers at police stations which have the same or a similar organization of work. Practical implications – Optimization of scheduling significantly reduces the time to obtain a monthly schedule. In addition, it allows the police stations to experiment with different forms of organization work of police officers and to obtain an optimal schedule for each of them in a short time. Originality/value – The problem of optimal scheduling of employees is often resolved in other fields. To the authors knowledge, this is the first time that the approach of goal programming is applied in the field of policing.

Purpose Given the importance of style allocation strategy under the outsourced chief investment officer (OCIO) structure, the authors examine the validity of style allocation strategies in the Korean stock market. The authors find that external investment agencies can improve performance by using newly suggested investment styles such as high dividend yield and low volatility as well as traditional styles. In addition, the authors find that the style combination strategies create economically large and statistically significant returns. Finally, empirical results indicate that factor timing strategies suggested in this study can improve the reward-to-risk ratio. In sum, the empirical findings indicate that external investment agencies under the OCIO structure can improve performance using active style allocation strategies.

Police in-vehicle technologies especially mobile computer terminals (MCTs) are the major cause of motor vehicle crashes for law enforcement officers. Previous studies have found several usability issues with the design of MCT interfaces. The objective of this study was to develop an algorithm for classification of MCT interface usability based on a combination of officer performance, visual attention allocation, and subjective measures. It was found that speed deviation, secondary task completion time, off-road fixation frequency and glance duration are informative features that associate with MCT usability. The developed algorithm has the potential to be used in MCT design and development process to ensure efficient interaction in multi-tasking situations of driving and using the MCT.

This study is a multi-level assessment of community-based Violence Against Women (VAW) desks status: (1) VAW system (policies and legislation); (2) entity (VAW desk setup), and (3) individual (VAW desk officers) levels’ capacities in Calamba City, Laguna, Philippines. Data were gathered through a survey of 105 VAW desk officers and key informant interviews of five local officials. In addition, document reviews of national and local policies and reports on VAW were also employed in this study. Findings suggested that policies on establishing barangay-level VAW desks were properly enforced in Calamba City. However, the research results also showed a lack of equipment and resources to address VAW cases properly. In addition, VAW desk officers’ age and educational background limit their capacity to implement their responsibilities effectively, for there are no clear qualifications needed to be a desk officer. There is also no clear local system on the orientation of roles and responsibilities of the desk officers. Thus, the following recommendations: (1) national or local policy amendment to include the basic qualifications of desk officers; (2) maximize the role of the local group of desk officers in capacity-building and advocacy while partnering with civil society; (3) proper fund allocation of the city to ensure full functionality of VAW desks; and (4) strengthen feedback system and enforcement of rewards and penalties to motivate proper functioning of the desk offices. The paper contributes to local governance perspectives, specifically on multi-level coordination, to effectively address VAW and provide gender and development (GAD) support services.

Thesis (M.S. in Management)--Naval Postgraduate School, March 2010.
Thesis Advisor(s): Gates, William. ; Hatch, William. "March 2010." Description based on title screen as viewed on April 21, 2010. Author(s) subject terms: Retention, Australian Army, Optimization Models, Royal Military College, Officers, Manpower, Corps Allocation, Military Occupational Specialties (MOS) Allocation, MOS retention. Includes bibliographical references (p. 89-90). Also available in print.

The Chief Security Officer Problem (CSO) consists of a CSO, a group of agents trying to communicate with the CSO and a group of eavesdroppers trying to listen to the conversations between the CSO and its agents. Through Lemmas and Theorems, several Information Theoretic questions are answered.

Office Space Allocation (OSA) is the task of efficient usage of spatial resources of an organisation. A common goal in a typical OSA problem is to minimise the wastage of space either by limiting the overuse or underuse of the facilities. The problem also contains a myriad of hard and soft constraints based on the preferences of respective organisations. In this thesis, the OSA variant usually encountered in academic institutions is investigated. Previous research in this area is rather sparse. This thesis provides a definition, extension, and literature review for the problem as well as a new parametrised data instance generator. In this thesis, two main algorithmic approaches for tackling the OSA are proposed: The first one is integer linear programming. Based on the definition of several constraints and some additional variables, two different mathematical models are proposed. These two models are not strictly alternatives to each other. While one of them provides more performance for the types of instances it is applicable, it lacks generality. The other approach provides less performance; however, it is easier to apply this model to different OSA problems. The second algorithmic approach is based on metaheuristics. A three step process in heuristic development is followed. In the first step, general local search techniques (descent methods, threshold acceptance, simulated annealing, great deluge) traverse within the neighbourhood via random relocation and swap moves. The second step of heuristic development aims to investigate large sections of the whole neighbourhood greedily via very fast cost calculation, cost update, and search for best move procedures within an evolutionary local search framework. The final step involves refinements and hybridisation of best performing (in terms of solution quality) mathematical programming and meta-heuristic techniques developed in prior steps. This thesis aims to be one of the pioneering works in the research area of OSA. The major contributions are: the analysis of the problem, a new parametrised data instance generator, mathematical programming models, and meta-heuristic approaches in order to extend the state-of-the art in this area.

The Stockholm office market segment have for a long time been considered a safe haven when it comes to withstand negative turmoil in the form of rental compression due to economic fluctuation, especially in the CBD demographic. Recently however, a large number of banks and institutions, amounting to some 200000 square meters, have decided to relocate to more peripheral locations with the aim of cost reductions on rent. This mass exodus is studied with focus on rental dynamics as the result of increased vacancies. Other variables are stock changes and employment. The method is econometric combined with an interview series. The data is a panel dataset containing 900 observations. The different models that are being used is the vacancy gap model, an Error Correction Model and a dynamic lag model in the form of a first difference model. Due to non-stationary variables, some models were rejected. A prognosis model has been created for the economic calculations. The results are displayed in a number of scenarios ranging from unchanged rents to severe rental drops. As a comprehensive result this study concludes that a rental drop in the range of 10-20 percent is to be expected. A number of positive side effects are expected to unfold as a result of the relocations.
Stockholmsmarknadens kontorssegment har länge setts på som säker vad gäller att kunna motstå negativ turbulens i form av hyres press på grund av ekonomiska svängningar, och då speciellt marknaden för City eller CBD. Nyligen har dock en stor mängd banker och institutioner om cirka 200000 kvadratmeter bestämt sig för att lokalisera sig i mer perifera lokaler med kostnads reduceringar i form av lägre hyror som mål. Den här massutflyttningen har studerats med fokus på hyresdynamik som ett resultat av ökade vakanser. Andra variabler är ändringar i stocken och sysselsättning. Metoden är ekonometrisk och kombineras med en intervjuserie. Data består av ett paneldatasett innehållande 900 observationer. De olika modellerna som används är en vakansgapsmodell, en Error Correction modell (ECM) och en första differens modell. På grund av icke stationära variabler har vissa modeller förkastats. En prognostiseringsmodell har skapats för de ekonomiska beräkningarna. Resultaten redovisas i olika scenarion som består i allt från att hyrorna inte ändras alls till svåra hyresfall. Ett samlat resultat av studien föreslår ett hyresfall på 10-20 procent. En mängd positiva bieffekter förväntas uppstå som ett resultat av om lokalisationerna.

Aujourd’hui encore, dans un contexte de crise sociale, de fortes évolutions institutionnelles et réglementaires, les modalités d’intervention des bailleurs sociaux en matière d’insertion par le logement sont interrogées. L’emploi de chargée d’attribution (CA) dans le département de la Martinique, exercé essentiellement par des femmes, est au cœur du fonctionnement de ces opérateurs immobiliers. Ces professionnelles, dont l’intervention se situe entre celle du travailleur social et celle de l’agent immobilier, ont pour principale mission l’instruction des demandes de logements sociaux à partir d’un entretien client. Elles évoluent dans un environnement de travail complexe et dynamique (Rogalski, 2003 ; Vinatier, 2009 ; Hoc et al., 2006 ; Amalberti, 2001a) où il est difficile de figer stricto sensu des règles d’actions communes pour toutes les tâches prescrites. En toile de fond, la quête de réponses à un questionnement a motivé notre démarche didactique : comment apprennent-elles le métier sans l’existence d’une formation ni d’un diplôme spécifique préalable ? Quelles sont les manières de faire, les compétences qui semblent les plus optimales ? Y a-t-il plusieurs manières de faire équivalentes pour une même situation ? Comment cela s’apprend-il ? Qu’apprennent-elles ? De quelle pratique experte s’agit-il ? Y a-t-il une pratique pour chaque organisation de travail ? Ou encore existe-t-il une pratique professionnelle identique dans des organisations de travail différentes ? Pouvons-nous parler de modèle d’expertise ? Pouvons-nous en définir un ? Leur activité peu documentée est soumise à de multiples tensions génériques d’une part et spécifiques au contexte martiniquais d’autre part. Dans ce secteur professionnel, l’apprentissage se réalise en situation de travail (Mayen, 2012). Les notions d’activité et d’apprentissage sont ainsi étroitement liées. L’intérêt majeur de cette recherche doctorale est de la conduire dans un contexte en mutation (évolution de la législation, des organisations de travail, etc.). Or, l’analyse du travail montre à quel point les contraintes notamment temporelles, maîtrise recherchée du temps afin de gagner en efficacité, rendent difficiles la mutualisation des connaissances et de l’expérience de ces professionnelles. Il s’agit précisément de comprendre comment elles apprennent dans et par l’activité d’entretien client. Notre recherche, inscrite dans le champ disciplinaire de la didactique professionnelle, se caractérise par l’intention générale d’appréhender les exigences de travail (Mayen et al., 2010) pour ensuite comprendre comment elles s’y prennent pour exercer (Mayen, 2005). Nous tenterons d’apporter des réponses à la question de savoir si elles construisent des conceptualisations professionnelles et surtout lesquelles car il y a toujours un certain niveau de conceptualisation, pour faire face aux situations rencontrées (Mayen, 2012). L’environnement de travail, les situations d’imprévus, d’empêchement (Clot, 2010) ou de résolutions de difficultés sont autant d’éléments qu’il convient de prendre en compte pour conduire une analyse du travail des CA. L’enjeu scientifique est donc de permettre d’élargir les recherches sur les classes de situations jusque-là réalisées en didactique professionnelle sur les métiers de service. Il s’agit également de faire connaître à un large public l’activité de ces intervenantes du logement social
Against a backdrop of social crisis and major institutional and regulatory changes, the ways in which social landlords can intervene today to promote integration through housing are still being questioned. The job of allocation officer (CA) in the department of Martinique, held mainly by women, is at the heart of how these property operators operate. These women, whose work falls somewhere between that of a social worker and that of an estate agent, are primarily responsible for processing applications for social housing, based on a client interview. Their work situations are complex and dynamic (Rogalski, 2003 ; Vinatier, 2009 ; Hoc and al., 2006 ; Amalberti, 2001a), and it is difficult to set down strict common rules of action for all the prescribed tasks. Our didactic approach was motivated by our desire to answer the following set of questions: How do they learn the trade without any prior training or specific degree? What are the ways of doing things and the skills that seem to be the best suited for their jobs? Are there several equivalent ways of doing things in the same situation? How can this be taught? What do they learn? What expert practice is involved? Is there a specific practice for each work organization? Or is there a professional practice common to different work organizations? Can we talk about a model of expertise? Is it possible to define one? Their poorly documented activity is subject to multiple tensions, both generic and specific to the Martinique context. In this professional sector, learning always takes place in a work situation (Mayen, 2012). The concepts of activity and learning are closely linked. The main interest of this doctoral research is that it is being conducted in an ever-changing context (changes in labour legislation, work organization, etc.). An analysis of work shows the extent to which time constraints, specifically the need to manage time in order to increase efficiency, make it difficult for these professionals to share the knowledge and experience they have gained. The aim is precisely to understand how they learn in and through the social housing rental business. Our research, which falls within the disciplinary field of professional didactics, is characterized by the general intention of understanding the work requirements (Mayen et al., 2010) of CAs in Martinique and then how they go ! about practicing (Mayen, 2005). We will attempt to provide answers to the question of whether they construct professional conceptualizations, and especially which ones, as there is always a certain level of conceptualization, in order to deal with the situations they encounter (Mayen, 2012). Work environments, unforeseen situations, impediments (Clot, 2010) and problem-solving are all factors that need to be taken into account when analyzing the work of CAs. The scientific challenge is therefore to broaden the research on the classes of situations which, up to now, were mainly carried out in vocational didactics on the service professions. The aim is also to make the work of this social housing workers known to a wider public

Thesis (M.S. in Management)--Naval Postgraduate School, March 2010.
Thesis Advisor(s): Gates, William R. ; Coughlan, Peter. "March 2010." Author(s) subject terms: Combinatorial Retention Auction Mechanism, auction mechanism, auction, Nurse Corps, Nurse Corps retention, retention, retention mechanism, Menu Method, Bid Method. Includes bibliographical references (p. 95-99). Also available in print.

Detta Examensarbete utfördes som en fallstudie Saab Combat Systems, som är och undersöker utmaningar i form av beroenden och osäkerheter som uppstår i Multiprojekt-Organisationer. Dessa utmaningar verkar orsaka konflikter och tvetydigheter i Multiprojekt-Organisationer gällande exempelvis, kommunikation, resursallokering, produktutveckling samt maktstrukturer mellan olika roller (Engwall & Jerbant, 2003; Dahlgren & Söderlund, 2010). Detta Examensarbete behandlar dessa utmaningar genom att undersöka och besvara följande forskningsfrågor: Vilka utmaningar i form av beroenden och osäkerheter existerar på Saab Combat Systems? Hur kan dessa utmaningar hanteras? Våra resultat visar att tre olika typer av beroenden uppstår i Multiprojekt-Organisationer som utvecklar komplexa produkter och system; organisatoriska beroenden, tekniska beroenden och resursberoenden. Dessa tre beroenden verkar påverka varandra och resultera i osäkerheter när flera projekt hanteras samtidigt. Dessutom ökar nivån av osäkerhet i projekt på grund av osäkerheter i relation till maktstrukturer samt utveckling av komplexa produkter och system. De tre identifierade beroende inkluderar projektosäkerheter samt projektberoenden. Vi har valt ut tre stycken olika typer av Management Control Systems; Projektkontor, Projektportföljhantering samt Programhantering och drar slutsatsen att de kan användas för att hantera de tre identifierade beroendena Multiprojekt-Organisationer. Vi har dock upptäckt att dessa Management Control Systems har både fördelar och nackdelar gällande hantering av de tre olika typer av beroenden. Alla identifierade beroenden och osäkerheter kan följaktligen hanteras genom att kombinera olika Management Control Systems. Dessutom har vi kompletterat en redan utvecklad modell av Dahlgren & Söderlund (2010) genom att kartlägga de tre beroendena, som tar hänsyn till projektosäkerheter och projektberoenden, samt vilken typ av Management Control Systems som är mest lämplig för att hantera dessa beroenden.
This Master Thesis was conducted as a case study at Saab Combat Systems investigating challenges in form of dependencies and uncertainties that emerge in Multi-Project Organizations. These challenges seem to cause conflicts and ambiguity in Multi-Project Organizations regarding for instance; communication, human resources allocation, product development and power structures between different roles (Engwall & Jerbant, 2003; Dahlgren & Söderlund, 2010). Thereby, this Master Thesis addresses these challenges by investigating and answering the following research questions: What challenges in form of dependencies and uncertainties exist at Saab Combat Systems? How can these challenges be addressed? Our Results display that three different types of dependencies exists in Multi-Project Organizations developing Complex Products and Systems; organizational dependencies, technical dependencies and resources dependencies. These three dependencies seem to be connected, and therefore result in uncertainties when managing multiple projects. Additionally, uncertainties in relation to the power structure as well as development of Complex Products and Systems tend to increase the level of project uncertainty. The three identified dependencies include both project uncertainties and project dependencies. We have chosen three different Management Control Systems; Project Management Office, Project Portfolio Management and Programme Management and conclude that they can be utilized in order to address the three identified dependencies in Multi-Project Organizations. However, we have found that these Management Control Systems have benefits as well as shortcomings when addressing different types of dependencies. Consequently, by combining them, all of the identified dependencies and uncertainties can be addressed. Furthermore, we have complemented an already developed model by Dahlgren & Söderlund (2010) by mapping the three identified dependencies, which consider project uncertainties and project dependencies, as well as which Management Control System is most appropriate when addressing these three dependencies.

För att vatten ska kunna levereras enligt de krav som ställs från användarna i samhället behövs ett väl anpassat ledningsnät. Det innebär bland annat att vatten ska finnas tillgängligt i den mängd som behövs och vid den tidpunkt som vatten krävs. För att vattenreningsverken ska kunna leverera rätt mängd vatten måste ledningsnätet vara dimensionerat för att kunna transportera allt vatten som skall pumpas ut till användarna. Detta kräver en god uppskattning om de vattenflöden som behövs. Det förväntade vattenflödet till olika samhällsanvändare uppskattas utifrån befintliga användningsmönster samt publikation P83, framtagen av Svenskt Vatten. Allt eftersom samhället utvecklas behöver publikationen uppdateras för att denna ska stämma så väl överens med verkligheten som möjligt. Vattenanvändningsmönster i skolor, kontor, handelsområden och industrier undersöktes som en del av ett pågående projekt för att undersöka om P83 bör uppdateras. För dessa har år- och dygnsvariationer, flöden och maxfaktorer analyserats från årslånga mätserier. Utifrån uppmätta värden kunde alternativa fördelningsnycklar som potentiellt skulle bidra till förbättring också analyseras. Resultaten tyder på att det finns förbättringsmöjligheter för flödesberäkningar för brukartyperna skolor, handel och industri jämfört med dagens metoder. För skolor och handel skulle inomhusarea vara en relevant fördelningsnyckel att använda vid beräkningar medan takyta vore en mer lämplig parameter att använda för industrier. De maxfaktorer som finns angivna i P83 stämde inte särskilt väl överens med de uppmätta i studien och skulle behöva uppdateras. Studien visar också på ett behov av att dela upp de brukarkategorier som finns i dagsläget till fler kategorier då de tre som finns i dagsläget är mycket generella. Dessutom undersöktes möjligheten att kombinera olika brukartyper för att utjämna vattenflöden under dygnet. Villor eller radhus bör lämpligen kombineras med skolor, kontor eller industrier för att få ett jämnare vattenflöde under dagtid.
For water to be delivered according to the requirements of the users in the society there is a need for the water pipelines to be well dimensioned. This means that the amount of water that is needed has to be available at the time when it is required. For the water treatment plants to be able to deliver the right amount of water the pipelines must be sized to carry the water that should be delivered to the users. This requires a good estimate of the amount of water needed. The expected water flow to different users is estimated based on existing water usage patterns as well as the P83 publication, developed by Swedish Water. As society develops the publication may need to be updated to correspond well with reality. Water use patterns in schools, offices, retail stores and industries were examined as a part of an ongoing project to investigate whether P83 should be updated. For these annual and diurnal variations, water flows and max factors were analyzed from yearlong series of measurements. Based on the measured values alternate allocation keys that could potentially contribute to improvement were analyzed. The results suggest that there are possible improvements for flow calculations for schools, retail stores and industry compared to current methods. For schools and retail stores the indoor area would be a relevant variable to use for calculations, while the roof area would be a more appropriate variable to use for industries. The max factors listed in P83 did not agree with those measured in the study and would need to be updated. The study shows that the three categories used in P83 are very general and ought to be divided into more specific categories. Furthermore, the possibility to combine different types of water users to equalize the water flow to an area during the day was analyzed. Villas or semi-attached houses should preferably be combined with schools, offices or industries for evening out the flow during day time.

AbstractThe formation of cities, and the relocation of workers to densely populated areas reflect a spatial equilibrium, in which the higher real consumption levels of urban areas are offset by lower non-monetary amenities [1]. However, as the society progress toward a post-COVID stage, the prevailing decentralized delivery systems and location-based services, the growing trend of working from home, with citizens’ shifting preference of de-appreciating densities and gathering, have not only changed the possible spatial distribution of opportunities, resources, consumption and amenities, but also transformed people’s preference regarding desirable urban spatial qualities, value of amenities, and working opportunities [2, 3].This research presents a systematic method to evaluate the perceived trade-off between urban spatial qualities and urban utilities such as amenities, transportation, and monetary opportunities by urban residence in the post-COVID society. The outcome of the research will become a valid tool to drive and evaluate urban design strategies based on the potential self-organization of work-life patterns and social profiles in the designated neighbourhood.To evaluate the subjective perception of the urban residence, the study started with a comparative survey by asking residence to compare two randomly selected urban contexts in a data base of 398 contexts sampled across Hong Kong and state their living preference under the presumption of following scenarios: 1. working from home; 2. working in city centre offices. Core information influencing the spatial equilibrium are provided in the comparable urban context such as street views, housing price, housing space, travel time to city centre, adjacency to public transport and amenities, etc. Each context is given a preference score calculated with Microsoft TrueSkill Bayesian ranking algorithm [4] based on the comparison survey of two scenarios.The 398 contexts are further analysed via GIS and image processing, to be deconstructed into numerical values describing main features for each of the context that influence urban design strategies such as composition of spatial features, amenity allocation, adjacency to city centre and public transportations. Machine learning models are trained with the numerical values of urban features as input and two preference scores for the two working scenarios as the output. The correlation heat maps are used to identify main urban features and its p-value that influence residence’s preference under two working scenarios in post–COVID era. The same model could also be applied to inform the direction of urban design strategies to construct a sustainable community for each type of working population and validate the design strategies via predicting its competitiveness in attracting residence and developing target industries.

Abstract One of the first things parties entering a government coalition do is to decide how they will share the ministerial offices among themselves. Without reaching agreement on this issue, no coalition can take office. Although cabinet portfolios are only the tip of the iceberg of allocation decisions that coalition parties have to make, they are probably the most important ones. And it is easy to understand why portfolio allocation is important. Cabinet ministers are among the most important policymakers in parliamentary democracies, and ministerial offices are one of the most important pay-offs available to political parties. Political parties care about the ministries at their disposal and so do individual politicians. Although the number of such posts may vary between countries and over time, ministerial offices are position goods and rank among the most exclusive ones. The more cabinet seats a party has at its disposal, the more policy influence it can have, and the more party leaders can see their career ambitions fulfilled. It is hard to imagine a politician who does not value cabinet office. Ministerial office is typically the apex of a political career, and it is an appointment that often affords the holder considerable policy influence. Moreover, ministerial portfolios are the key to many lower-level appointments in the public sector.

Abstract Intellectual capital has been considered by many, defined by some, understood by a select few, and formally valued by practically no one (Stewart 1997, Sveiby 1997). Therein lies one of the greatest challenges facing business leaders and academic researchers today and tomorrow. Recently, the job title of chief knowledge officer (CKO) has been creeping up on annual reports and job advertisements with ever-increasing frequency. These pathfinding individuals have been given the enviable task of channeling their organizations’ intellectual capital as an essential source of competitive advantage. Knowledge officers are responsible for justifying the value of knowledge that is constantly being developed in their organizations (Nonaka and Takeuchi 1995). This elusive intangible may never be evaluated in the financial terms that we are currently accustomed to. However, its strategic impact is never in question. From the capture, codification, and dissemination of information, through to the acquisition of new competencies via training and development, and on to the reengineering of business processes, present and future success in competition will be based less on the strategic allocation of physical and financial resources and more on the strategic management of knowledge.

We address the tradeoff of developing good predictive models for police allocation vs. optimally deploying police officers over a city in a way that does not imply an unfair allocation of resources. We modify the fair allocation algorithm of [1] to tackle a real world problem: crime in the city of Bogota, Colombia. Our approach allows for more sophisticated prediction models and we ´ show that the whole methodology outperforms the current police allocating mechanism in the city. Results show that even with a simple model such as a Kernel Density Estimation of crime, one can have much better prediction than the current police model and, at the same time, mitigate fairness concerns. Although we can not provide general performance guarantees, our results apply to a real life problem and should be seriously considered by policy makers.

Air-conditioning energy consumed in buildings can be reduced by cooling only occupied regions. With modern open-plan offices being adaptable with flexible work hours, there is a need to virtually divide thermal zones based on varying thermal requirements. Micro-Zonal Occupant-Centric Control (MZOCC) saves HVAC energy by creating micro-comfort zones around occupants through independent diffuser control. However, research gaps exist between thermal zoning for HVAC design and micro-zoning. There is a lack of clarity on the method of micro-zoning and factors to be considered, such as size and shape of micro-zones. The aim of this study is to delineate protocols for micro-zoning and evaluate the benefits of planned micro-zones. Characteristics of existing Indian open-plan offices are studied, and a method for micro-zoning is delineated. Results indicate that planned micro-zoning saves 44% of energy. The micro-zonal layout acts as the starting point for optimising diffuser allocation and airflow control, which will further improve energy savings.

The Board of Directors of the Inter-American Development Bank has requested that the Office of Evaluation and Oversight undertake an evaluation of Special Programs (SP) as part of its 2014 work program. The evaluation seeks to shed light on whether the current practice and arrangements for allocating US$100 million from Ordinary Capital (OC) net income to 19 SPs are an effective way to finance Technical Cooperations (TCs) to address priority social and economic development needs in the Bank's borrowing member countries. The evaluation covers the functioning of OC funded SPs from 2005 through mid-2014 and covers the SP TC portfolio from 2005 to 2013.

The Office of Evaluation and Oversight (OVE) conducted an evaluation of a cluster of citizen security projects. The main objective was to identify what factors explained the implementation performance of the projects, and what lessons could be learned from these experiences. This Background Paper presents the results of one of these diagnostics for Nicaragua. Following the introduction, the country profile begins with an overview of the Nicaraguan context in terms of geography, demographics, economy, as well as recent political history (section II). It then builds a diagnostic that covers different forms of violence and crime (section III) as well as main risk and protective factors (section IV), based on available statistics and specialized international and local literature. In section V, the paper reviews the strategy adopted by the Government throughout the last decade to respond to main forms of violence and crime, it describes the budget allocation to citizen security over recent years. Finally, section VI presents the IDB citizen security project part of the comparative evaluation, and summarizes various exercises that OVE undertook to provide additional background information and analysis.

This report sheds light on challenges faced by Transgender persons in Indian prisons. The report analyses the international and legal frameworks in the country which provide the foundation for policy formulations with regard to confinement of LGBT+ persons, with particular reference to the Transgender community. This report also documents the responses received to right to information requests filed to prison headquarters across the country, which in addition to providing the number of Transgender prisoners in Indian prisons between 1st May 2018 to 30th April 2019, also provides relevant information on compliance within prisons with existing legal frameworks relevant to protecting the rights of Transgender persons in prisons, especially in terms of recognition of a third gender, allocation of wards, search procedures, efforts towards capacity building of prison administrators etc. The finalisation of this report has involved an intense consultative process with individuals and experts, including representatives from the community, community-based organisations as well as researcher and academicians working on this issue. This report aims to enhance the understanding of these issues among stakeholders such as prison administrators, judicial officers, lawyers, legal service providers as well as other non-state actors. It is aimed at better informed policy making, and ensuring that decisions made with respect to LGBTI+ persons in prisons recognize and are sensitive of their rights and special needs.

The Office of Evaluation and Oversight (OVE) of the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB, or the Bank) conducted an impact evaluation to assess the effectiveness of the main types of programs through which IDB has supported small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in Latin America and the Caribbean. It does not evaluate Bank projects directly or compare executing agencies, models of interventions or financial instruments, but rather examines the effectiveness of Bank-supported approaches implemented by Brazilian institutions. Focusing only on the manufacturing sector, the evaluation examines how these interventions affect firm-level outcomes such as employment, real wages, exports, and patent and trademark registration. The overarching objective of this exercise is to provide insight for future strategic decisions regarding the targeting of Bank support to SMEs. The rationale for choosing Brazil is threefold: (i) Brazil represents 55% of IDB's total volume of lending supporting SMEs; (ii) country stakeholders have collected data from SMEs exposed to various types of interventions, allowing OVE to learn about alternative SME support approaches in Brazil; and (iii) OVE has access to comprehensive datasets that facilitate impact evaluations in Brazil. OVE bases the analysis on the types of interventions the Bank has supported in Brazil, compares the results they achieved, and draws lessons for the future design and implementation of SME support strategies and budget allocation considerations.

This review looks at approaches to promote birth registration among marginalised groups, in order to inform programming in Pakistan. It draws on a mixture of academic and grey literature, in particular reports by international development organizations. While there is extensive literature on rates of birth registration and the barriers to this, and consensus on approaches to promote registration, the review found less evidence of measures specifically aimed at marginalised groups. Gender issues are addressed to some extent, particularly in understanding barriers to registration, but the literature was largely disability-blind. The literature notes that birth registration is considered as a fundamental human right, allowing access to services such as healthcare and education; it is the basis for obtaining other identity documents, e.g. driving licenses and passports; it protects children, e.g. from child marriage; and it enables production of vital statistics to support government planning and resource allocation. Registration rates are generally lower than average for vulnerable children, e.g. from minority groups, migrants, refugees, children with disabilities. Discriminatory policies against minorities, restrictions on movement, lack of resources, and lack of trust in government are among the ‘additional’ barriers affecting the most marginalised. Women, especially unmarried women, also face greater challenges in getting births registered. General approaches to promoting birth registration include legal and policy reform, awareness-raising activities, capacity building of registration offices, integration of birth registration with health services/education/social safety nets, and the use of digital technology to increase efficiency and accessibility.

Multiple development actors are interested in stimulating more inclusive fiscal governance. Efforts to generate greater budget transparency, citizen participation in resource allocation, and public oversight of government spending are commonplace. How can development donors and lenders support such efforts, and what are their limitations? How do their attempts to do so interact? Exploring the outcomes of two projects in the Nigerian States of Jigawa and Kaduna provide some answers to these questions. The projects pursue overlapping goals, but with different approaches. The Partnership to Engage, Reform and Learn (PERL) programme funded by the UK Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office works in a granular and contextually adapted way in each state to construct joint government and civil initiatives that test and embed citizen engagement and oversight approaches. The World Bank States Financial Transparency Accountability and Sustainability (SFTAS) initiative offers financial incentives to states if they meet a set of common public financial management benchmarks. Their actions have been complementary in several ways, despite significant contextual differences between the states in terms of conflict dynamics and prevailing citizen–state relations. The projects also reinforced each other’s efforts on public procurement reform in Kaduna State. However, in Jigawa State, SFTAS incentives to pass a procurement law following a standard template failed to codify and may indeed reverse gains from longstanding PERL efforts supporting transparency. This illustrates how donors with similar reform objectives in the same contexts can unconsciously undermine existing efforts towards overarching public accountability goals.

A panel of 32 reviewers analyzed the Local Control and Accountability Plans (LCAPs) of same sample of 29 districts for the second year of implementation of the 2013 California Local Control Funding Formula (LCFF). Using the same four questions as the Year 1 report, the Year 2 analysis also addresses the key differences between first and second-year LCAPs. Key findings from the Year 2 LCAPs review include: (1) similarly weak responses to the needs of ELs by LEAs in Year 2; (2) some improvement in clarity about services provided to ELs in some areas, though most evidence was weak; (3) minimal attention to the new English Language Development Standards; (4) minimal investment in teacher capacity building to address EL needs; (5) lack of attention to coherent programs, services and supports for ELs and failure to address issues of program and curriculum access; (6) weak engagement of ELs’ parents in LCAP process and content of LCAP plans; (7) poor employment of EL data to inform LCAP goals and weak use of EL indicators as an LCAP accountability component; (8) lack of specificity in describing district services and site allocations for supplemental and concentration funding; and (9) difficulty identifying the coherence of responses of EL needs in year 2 LCAPs. Overall, the analysis of the 29 LCAPs continue to signal a weak response to EL needs. The authors reassert the urgency of the recommendations in the Year 1 report, offer additional specific recommendations for the state, county offices of education, and districts, and call upon the state to reaffirm the equity commitment in the LCFF design.

Linear city bus services are facing increased challenges from city growth. Increased number of inhabitants on increasing acres of built-up areas, makes it demanding to maintain adequate bus services within reasonable catchment areas. Number of departures per hour give a partial description of the bus service quality. Number of departures give reference to the time aspect of bus service quality, but say nothing about the geographical aspect. What part of the entire line network is within reach of direct bus service when frequencies are limited? To address the geographical aspect of bus service quality, the term network ratio is introduced. The term Network Ratio (NR) signifies what part of the entire line network is within reach of direct bus service to or from a certain place in the network. Network Ratio is given as a mathematical term whereby direct bus lines are calculated as a percentage of the entire network. The character and development of Network Ratio in a specific city is illustrated through an analysis of the urban growth of line network and built-up areas in the twin cities of Stavanger and Sandnes. The analysis is covering the period 1920 – 2000 in intervals of 20 years from the first bus lines were established in the urban area. Year 2010 is also included due to major changes implemented right after the turn of the millennium. Development show there is a close relation between bus network and built-up areas. When areas are being built, bus lines follow. The initial fase 1920 – 40 with extensive development of bus lines combined with some areal growth, is followed by a fase of consolidation 1940 – 60. The latter period is characterized by moderate areal growth, extended lines reducing network ratios, and increasing frequencies on the best bus lines. Extensive areal growth in the following period 1960 – 80, implies increased number of bus lines. As a consequence network ratios as well as frequencies are falling in the entire network. In 1960 certain lines had developed as much as 6 departures per hour, while maximum bus line frequency in 1980 has diminished to 2. New bus service development is introduced in the following period between 1980 and 2000. Numerous bus companies are united, and a more comprehensive planning of bus services are applied. The number of bus lines is stabilized at about 40, the fall in network ratio is reduced, and certain lines develop 4 departures per hour. Parallell to the bus development, growth of built-up areas is slowing down due to increased urban renewal with higher densities within built-up areas. In the period 2000 – 2010 new efforts are given to the development of bus services. Development of Network Ratio takes a new direction: The length of network links with high NR is increasing, while links with very low NR are diminishing. Number of bus lines is decreasing, and by 2010 almost 50% of the bus lines are served with 4 departures or more. Passenger comfort is improved in buses as well as on bus stops, and low floor buses are introduced to ease accessibility. Bus service quality is further developed after 2010. Digital services are introduced including digital ticketing, bus service information and real-time information on internet. In addition real-time information is presented at high frequency bus stops through visual screen and auditory speaker. Inside the buses name of next stop is given on screen and through loudspeaker. Further development of the bus services, should include improved Network Ratios in the entire network, as well as increased frequencies on major bus corridors. The latter is a task not only for the bus service planners, but just as well for the city planners and politicians in collaboration with the developers implementing urban density and allocation of important destinations. A last, but not least, objective for bus service development will be to improve punctuality and total travel time. Today a considerable proportion of city bus services are delayed in car traffic congestions. This is occurring especially on main streets and during rush hours. A set of different solutions are needed to address this question: 1. Dedicated bus streets (including car access to limited addresses) 2. Bus lines through local streets in concentrated housing, office and shopping areas. 3. Dedicated bus lane on main streets where possible. 4. Car traffic regulations on main streets without space for extra bus lane. As an overall vision, we need to cultivate the word of Flemming Larsen: urban growth as pearls on a string, as shown in fig. 13 and fig. 14.

Banco de la República is celebrating its 100th anniversary in 2023. This is a very significant anniversary and one that provides an opportunity to highlight the contribution the Bank has made to the country’s development. Its track record as guarantor of monetary stability has established it as the one independent state institution that generates the greatest confidence among Colombians due to its transparency, management capabilities, and effective compliance with the central banking and cultural responsibilities entrusted to it by the Constitution and the Law. On a date as important as this, the Board of Directors of Banco de la República (BDBR) pays tribute to the generations of governors and officers whose commitment and dedication have contributed to the growth of this institution.1 Banco de la República’s mandate was confirmed in the National Constitutional Assembly of 1991 where the citizens had the opportunity to elect the seventy people who would have the task of drafting a new constitution. The leaders of the three political movements with the most votes were elected as chairs to the Assembly, and this tripartite presidency reflected the plurality and the need for consensus among the different political groups to move the reform forward. Among the issues considered, the National Constitutional Assembly gave special importance to monetary stability. That is why they decided to include central banking and to provide Banco de la República with the necessary autonomy to use the instruments for which they are responsible without interference from other authorities. The constituent members understood that ensuring price stability is a state duty and that the entity responsible for this task must be enshrined in the Constitution and have the technical capability and institutional autonomy necessary to adopt the decisions they deem appropriate to achieve this fundamental objective in coordination with the general economic policy. In particular, Article 373 established that “the State, through Banco de la República, shall ensure the maintenance of the purchasing power of the currency,” a provision that coincided with the central banking system adopted by countries that have been successful in controlling inflation. In 1999, in Ruling 481, the Constitutional Court stated that “the duty to maintain the purchasing power of the currency applies to not only the monetary, credit, and exchange authority, i.e., the Board of Banco de la República, but also those who have responsibilities in the formulation and implementation of the general economic policy of the country” and that “the basic constitutional purpose of Banco de la República is the protection of a sound currency. However, this authority must take the other economic objectives of state intervention such as full employment into consideration in their decisions since these functions must be coordinated with the general economic policy.” The reforms to Banco de la República agreed upon in the Constitutional Assembly of 1991 and in Act 31/1992 can be summarized in the following aspects: i) the Bank was assigned a specific mandate: to maintain the purchasing power of the currency in coordination with the general economic policy; ii) the BDBR was designatedas the monetary, foreign exchange, and credit authority; iii) the Bank and its Board of Directors were granted a significant degree of independence from the government; iv) the Bank was prohibited from granting credit to the private sector except in the case of the financial sector; v) established that in order to grant credit to the government, the unanimous vote of its Board of Directors was required except in the case of open market transactions; vi) determined that the legislature may, in no case, order credit quotas in favor of the State or individuals; vii) Congress was appointed, on behalf of society, as the main addressee of the Bank’s reporting exercise; and viii) the responsibility for inspection, surveillance, and control over Banco de la República was delegated to the President of the Republic. The members of the National Constitutional Assembly clearly understood that the benefits of low and stable inflation extend to the whole of society and contribute mto the smooth functioning of the economic system. Among the most important of these is that low inflation promotes the efficient use of productive resources by allowing relative prices to better guide the allocation of resources since this promotes economic growth and increases the welfare of the population. Likewise, low inflation reduces uncertainty about the expected return on investment and future asset prices. This increases the confidence of economic agents, facilitates long-term financing, and stimulates investment. Since the low-income population is unable to protect itself from inflation by diversifying its assets, and a high proportion of its income is concentrated in the purchase of food and other basic goods that are generally the most affected by inflationary shocks, low inflation avoids arbitrary redistribution of income and wealth.2 Moreover, low inflation facilitates wage negotiations, creates a good labor climate, and reduces the volatility of employment levels. Finally, low inflation helps to make the tax system more transparent and equitable by avoiding the distortions that inflation introduces into the value of assets and income that make up the tax base. From the monetary authority’s point of view, one of the most relevant benefits of low inflation is the credibility that economic agents acquire in inflation targeting, which turns it into an effective nominal anchor on price levels. Upon receiving its mandate, and using its autonomy, Banco de la República began to announce specific annual inflation targets as of 1992. Although the proposed inflation targets were not met precisely during this first stage, a downward trend in inflation was achieved that took it from 32.4% in 1990 to 16.7% in 1998. At that time, the exchange rate was kept within a band. This limited the effectiveness of monetary policy, which simultaneously sought to meet an inflation target and an exchange rate target. The Asian crisis spread to emerging economies and significantly affected the Colombian economy. The exchange rate came under strong pressure to depreciate as access to foreign financing was cut off under conditions of a high foreign imbalance. This, together with the lack of exchange rate flexibility, prevented a countercyclical monetary policy and led to a 4.2% contraction in GDP that year. In this context of economic slowdown, annual inflation fell to 9.2% at the end of 1999, thus falling below the 15% target set for that year. This episode fully revealed how costly it could be, in terms of economic activity, to have inflation and exchange rate targets simultaneously. Towards the end of 1999, Banco de la República announced the adoption of a new monetary policy regime called the Inflation Targeting Plan. This regime, known internationally as ‘Inflation Targeting,’ has been gaining increasing acceptance in developed countries, having been adopted in 1991 by New Zealand, Canada, and England, among others, and has achieved significant advances in the management of inflation without incurring costs in terms of economic activity. In Latin America, Brazil and Chile also adopted it in 1999. In the case of Colombia, the last remaining requirement to be fulfilled in order to adopt said policy was exchange rate flexibility. This was realized around September 1999, when the BDBR decided to abandon the exchange-rate bands to allow the exchange rate to be freely determined in the market.Consistent with the constitutional mandate, the fundamental objective of this new policy approach was “the achievement of an inflation target that contributes to maintaining output growth around its potential.”3 This potential capacity was understood as the GDP growth that the economy can obtain if it fully utilizes its productive resources. To meet this objective, monetary policy must of necessity play a countercyclical role in the economy. This is because when economic activity is below its potential and there are idle resources, the monetary authority can reduce the interest rate in the absence of inflationary pressure to stimulate the economy and, when output exceeds its potential capacity, raise it. This policy principle, which is immersed in the models for guiding the monetary policy stance, makes the following two objectives fully compatible in the medium term: meeting the inflation target and achieving a level of economic activity that is consistent with its productive capacity. To achieve this purpose, the inflation targeting system uses the money market interest rate (at which the central bank supplies primary liquidity to commercial banks) as the primary policy instrument. This replaced the quantity of money as an intermediate monetary policy target that Banco de la República, like several other central banks, had used for a long time. In the case of Colombia, the objective of the new monetary policy approach implied, in practical terms, that the recovery of the economy after the 1999 contraction should be achieved while complying with the decreasing inflation targets established by the BDBR. The accomplishment of this purpose was remarkable. In the first half of the first decade of the 2000s, economic activity recovered significantly and reached a growth rate of 6.8% in 2006. Meanwhile, inflation gradually declined in line with inflation targets. That was how the inflation rate went from 9.2% in 1999 to 4.5% in 2006, thus meeting the inflation target established for that year while GDP reached its potential level. After this balance was achieved in 2006, inflation rebounded to 5.7% in 2007, above the 4.0% target for that year due to the fact that the 7.5% GDP growth exceeded the potential capacity of the economy.4 After proving the effectiveness of the inflation targeting system in its first years of operation, this policy regime continued to consolidate as the BDBR and the technical staff gained experience in its management and state-of-the-art economic models were incorporated to diagnose the present and future state of the economy and to assess the persistence of inflation deviations and expectations with respect to the inflation target. Beginning in 2010, the BDBR established the long-term 3.0% annual inflation target, which remains in effect today. Lower inflation has contributed to making the macroeconomic environment more stable, and this has favored sustained economic growth, financial stability, capital market development, and the functioning of payment systems. As a result, reductions in the inflationary risk premia and lower TES and credit interest rates were achieved. At the same time, the duration of public domestic debt increased significantly going from 2.27 years in December 2002 to 5.86 years in December 2022, and financial deepening, measured as the level of the portfolio as a percentage of GDP, went from around 20% in the mid-1990s to values above 45% in recent years in a healthy context for credit institutions.Having been granted autonomy by the Constitution to fulfill the mandate of preserving the purchasing power of the currency, the tangible achievements made by Banco de la República in managing inflation together with the significant benefits derived from the process of bringing inflation to its long-term target, make the BDBR’s current challenge to return inflation to the 3.0% target even more demanding and pressing. As is well known, starting in 2021, and especially in 2022, inflation in Colombia once again became a serious economic problem with high welfare costs. The inflationary phenomenon has not been exclusive to Colombia and many other developed and emerging countries have seen their inflation rates move away from the targets proposed by their central banks.5 The reasons for this phenomenon have been analyzed in recent Reports to Congress, and this new edition delves deeper into the subject with updated information. The solid institutional and technical base that supports the inflation targeting approach under which the monetary policy strategy operates gives the BDBR the necessary elements to face this difficult challenge with confidence. In this regard, the BDBR reiterated its commitment to the 3.0% inflation target in its November 25 communiqué and expects it to be reached by the end of 2024.6 Monetary policy will continue to focus on meeting this objective while ensuring the sustainability of economic activity, as mandated by the Constitution. Analyst surveys done in March showed a significant increase (from 32.3% in January to 48.5% in March) in the percentage of responses placing inflation expectations two years or more ahead in a range between 3.0% and 4.0%. This is a clear indication of the recovery of credibility in the medium-term inflation target and is consistent with the BDBR’s announcement made in November 2022. The moderation of the upward trend in inflation seen in January, and especially in February, will help to reinforce this revision of inflation expectations and will help to meet the proposed targets. After reaching 5.6% at the end of 2021, inflation maintained an upward trend throughout 2022 due to inflationary pressures from both external sources, associated with the aftermath of the pandemic and the consequences of the war in Ukraine, and domestic sources, resulting from: strengthening of local demand; price indexation processes stimulated by the increase in inflation expectations; the impact on food production caused by the mid-2021 strike; and the pass-through of depreciation to prices. The 10% increase in the minimum wage in 2021 and the 16% increase in 2022, both of which exceeded the actual inflation and the increase in productivity, accentuated the indexation processes by establishing a high nominal adjustment benchmark. Thus, total inflation went to 13.1% by the end of 2022. The annual change in food prices, which went from 17.2% to 27.8% between those two years, was the most influential factor in the surge in the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Another segment that contributed significantly to price increases was regulated products, which saw the annual change go from 7.1% in December 2021 to 11.8% by the end of 2022. The measure of core inflation excluding food and regulated items, in turn, went from 2.5% to 9.5% between the end of 2021 and the end of 2022. The substantial increase in core inflation shows that inflationary pressure has spread to most of the items in the household basket, which is characteristic of inflationary processes with generalized price indexation as is the case in Colombia. Monetary policy began to react early to this inflationary pressure. Thus, starting with its September 2021 session, the BDBR began a progressive change in the monetary policy stance moving away from the historical low of a 1.75% policy rate that had intended to stimulate the recovery of the economy. This adjustment process continued without interruption throughout 2022 and into the beginning of 2023 when the monetary policy rate reached 12.75% last January, thus accumulating an increase of 11 percentage points (pp). The public and the markets have been surprised that inflation continued to rise despite significant interest rate increases. However, as the BDBR has explained in its various communiqués, monetary policy works with a lag. Just as in 2022 economic activity recovered to a level above the pre-pandemic level, driven, along with other factors, by the monetary stimulus granted during the pandemic period and subsequent months, so too the effects of the current restrictive monetary policy will gradually take effect. This will allow us to expect the inflation rate to converge to 3.0% by the end of 2024 as is the BDBR’s purpose.Inflation results for January and February of this year showed declining marginal increases (13 bp and 3 bp respectively) compared to the change seen in December (59 bp). This suggests that a turning point in the inflation trend is approaching. In other Latin American countries such as Chile, Brazil, Perú, and Mexico, inflation has peaked and has begun to decline slowly, albeit with some ups and downs. It is to be expected that a similar process will take place in Colombia in the coming months. The expected decline in inflation in 2023 will be due, along with other factors, to lower cost pressure from abroad as a result of the gradual normalization of supply chains, the overcoming of supply shocks caused by the weather, and road blockades in previous years. This will be reflected in lower adjustments in food prices, as has already been seen in the first two months of the year and, of course, the lagged effect of monetary policy. The process of inflation convergence to the target will be gradual and will extend beyond 2023. This process will be facilitated if devaluation pressure is reversed. To this end, it is essential to continue consolidating fiscal sustainability and avoid messages on different public policy fronts that generate uncertainty and distrust. 1 This Report to Congress includes Box 1, which summarizes the trajectory of Banco de la República over the past 100 years. In addition, under the Bank’s auspices, several books that delve into various aspects of the history of this institution have been published in recent years. See, for example: Historia del Banco de la República 1923-2015; Tres banqueros centrales; Junta Directiva del Banco de la República: grandes episodios en 30 años de historia; Banco de la República: 90 años de la banca central en Colombia. 2 This is why lower inflation has been reflected in a reduction of income inequality as measured by the Gini coefficient that went from 58.7 in 1998 to 51.3 in the year prior to the pandemic. 3 See Gómez Javier, Uribe José Darío, Vargas Hernando (2002). “The Implementation of Inflation Targeting in Colombia”. Borradores de Economía, No. 202, March, available at: https://repositorio.banrep.gov.co/handle/20.500.12134/5220 4 See López-Enciso Enrique A.; Vargas-Herrera Hernando and Rodríguez-Niño Norberto (2016). “The inflation targeting strategy in Colombia. An historical view.” Borradores de Economía, No. 952. https://repositorio.banrep.gov.co/handle/20.500.12134/6263 5 According to the IMF, the percentage change in consumer prices between 2021 and 2022 went from 3.1% to 7.3% for advanced economies, and from 5.9% to 9.9% for emerging market and developing economies. 6 https://www.banrep.gov.co/es/noticias/junta-directiva-banco-republica-reitera-meta-inflacion-3

This note (RE-279) represents the Office of Evaluation and Oversight's preliminary review of the new performance-related allocation criteria used by the Bank. It is confined almost exclusively to a methodological review of the allocative criteria and to a comparative analysis of the approaches used elsewhere for the performance-based allocation of scarce resources. This report discusses the evolution of allocation criteria within the Bank's methodology for allocating concessional resources. The report also analyzes the distributional impact of the new performance-based methodology and compares the Bank's criteria with the most important alternative criteria used to allocate aid: those developed by the International Development Association (IDA), of the World Bank. In addition, a methodological discussion of the Bank's framework is presented along with conclusions and recommendations.