Bibliographies thématiques / Vent Opening Probability map

Littérature scientifique sur le sujet « Vent Opening Probability map »

Auteur : Grafiati
Publié le 10 mars 2023

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Articles de revues sur le sujet "Vent Opening Probability map"

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Cappello, A., M. Neri, V. Acocella, G. Gallo, A. Vicari et C. Del Negro. « Spatial vent opening probability map of Etna volcano (Sicily, Italy) ». Bulletin of Volcanology 74, no 9 (2 septembre 2012) : 2083–94. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00445-012-0647-4.

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Selva, Jacopo, Giovanni Orsi, Mauro Antonio Di Vito, Warner Marzocchi et Laura Sandri. « Probability hazard map for future vent opening at the Campi Flegrei caldera, Italy ». Bulletin of Volcanology 74, no 2 (27 septembre 2011) : 497–510. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00445-011-0528-2.

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Bevilacqua, Andrea, Marcus Bursik, Abani Patra, E. Pitman et Ryan Till. « Bayesian construction of a long-term vent opening probability map in the Long Valley volcanic region (CA, USA) ». Statistics in Volcanology 3 (août 2017) : 1–36. http://dx.doi.org/10.5038/2163-338x.3.1.

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Bartolini, S., A. Cappello, J. Martí et C. Del Negro. « QVAST : a new Quantum GIS plugin for estimating volcanic susceptibility ». Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Discussions 1, no 4 (22 août 2013) : 4223–56. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-1-4223-2013.

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Abstract. One of the most important tasks of modern volcanology is the construction of hazard maps simulating different eruptive scenarios that can be used in risk-based decision-making in land-use planning and emergency management. The first step in the quantitative assessment of volcanic hazards is the development of susceptibility maps, i.e. the spatial probability of a future vent opening given the past eruptive activity of a volcano. This challenging issue is generally tackled using probabilistic methods that use the calculation of a kernel function at each data location to estimate probability density functions (PDFs). The smoothness and the modeling ability of the kernel function are controlled by the smoothing parameter, also known as the bandwidth. Here we present a new tool, QVAST, part of the open-source Geographic Information System Quantum GIS, that is designed to create user-friendly quantitative assessments of volcanic susceptibility. QVAST allows to select an appropriate method for evaluating the bandwidth for the kernel function on the basis of the input parameters and the shapefile geometry, and can also evaluate the PDF with the Gaussian kernel. When different input datasets are available for the area, the total susceptibility map is obtained by assigning different weights to each of the PDFs, which are then combined via a weighted summation and modeled in a non-homogeneous Poisson process. The potential of QVAST, developed in a free and user-friendly environment, is here shown through its application in the volcanic fields of Lanzarote (Canary Islands) and La Garrotxa (NE Spain).
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Bartolini, S., A. Cappello, J. Martí et C. Del Negro. « QVAST : a new Quantum GIS plugin for estimating volcanic susceptibility ». Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 13, no 11 (27 novembre 2013) : 3031–42. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-3031-2013.

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Abstract. One of the most important tasks of modern volcanology is the construction of hazard maps simulating different eruptive scenarios that can be used in risk-based decision making in land-use planning and emergency management. The first step in the quantitative assessment of volcanic hazards is the development of susceptibility maps (i.e., the spatial probability of a future vent opening given the past eruptive activity of a volcano). This challenging issue is generally tackled using probabilistic methods that use the calculation of a kernel function at each data location to estimate probability density functions (PDFs). The smoothness and the modeling ability of the kernel function are controlled by the smoothing parameter, also known as the bandwidth. Here we present a new tool, QVAST, part of the open-source geographic information system Quantum GIS, which is designed to create user-friendly quantitative assessments of volcanic susceptibility. QVAST allows the selection of an appropriate method for evaluating the bandwidth for the kernel function on the basis of the input parameters and the shapefile geometry, and can also evaluate the PDF with the Gaussian kernel. When different input data sets are available for the area, the total susceptibility map is obtained by assigning different weights to each of the PDFs, which are then combined via a weighted summation and modeled in a non-homogeneous Poisson process. The potential of QVAST, developed in a free and user-friendly environment, is here shown through its application in the volcanic fields of Lanzarote (Canary Islands) and La Garrotxa (NE Spain).
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Del Negro, Ciro, Annalisa Cappello, Giuseppe Bilotta, Gaetana Ganci, Alexis Hérault et Vito Zago. « Living at the edge of an active volcano : Risk from lava flows on Mt. Etna ». GSA Bulletin 132, no 7-8 (21 novembre 2019) : 1615–25. http://dx.doi.org/10.1130/b35290.1.

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Abstract Lava flows represent the greatest threat by far to exposed population and infrastructure on Mt. Etna, Italy. The increasing exposure of a larger population, which has almost tripled in the area around Mt. Etna during the past 150 years, has resulted from poor assessment of the volcanic hazard and inappropriate land use in vulnerable areas. Here we quantify the lava flow risk on the flanks of Mt. Etna volcano using a Geographic Information System (GIS)-based approach that integrates the hazard with the exposure of elements at stake. The hazard, which shows the long-term probability related to lava flow inundation, is obtained by combining three different kinds of information: the spatiotemporal probability of new flank eruptive vents opening in the future, the event probability associated with classes of expected eruptions, and the overlapping of lava flow paths simulated by the MAGFLOW model. Data including all exposed elements were gathered from institutional web portals and high-resolution satellite imagery and organized in four thematic layers: population, buildings, service networks, and land use. The total exposure is given by a weighted linear combination of the four thematic layers, where weights are calculated using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). The resulting risk map shows the likely damage caused by a lava flow eruption and allows rapid visualization of the areas subject to the greatest losses if a flank eruption were to occur on Mt. Etna. The highest risk is found in the southeastern flank due to the combination of high hazard and population density.
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Bevilacqua, Andrea, Alvaro Aravena, Augusto Neri, Eduardo Gutiérrez, Demetrio Escobar, Melida Schliz, Alessandro Aiuppa et Raffaello Cioni. « Thematic vent opening probability maps and hazard assessment of small-scale pyroclastic density currents in the San Salvador volcanic complex (El Salvador) and Nejapa-Chiltepe volcanic complex (Nicaragua) ». Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 21, no 5 (28 mai 2021) : 1639–65. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1639-2021.

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Abstract. The San Salvador volcanic complex (El Salvador) and Nejapa-Chiltepe volcanic complex (Nicaragua) have been characterized by a significant variability in eruption style and vent location. Densely inhabited cities are built on them and their surroundings, including the metropolitan areas of San Salvador (∼2.4 million people) and Managua (∼1.4 million people), respectively. In this study we present novel vent opening probability maps for these volcanic complexes, which are based on a multi-model approach that relies on kernel density estimators. In particular, we present thematic vent opening maps, i.e., we consider different hazardous phenomena separately, including lava emission, small-scale pyroclastic density currents, ejection of ballistic projectiles, and low-intensity pyroclastic fallout. Our volcanological dataset includes: (1) the location of past vents, (2) the mapping of the main fault structures, and (3) the eruption styles of past events, obtained from critical analysis of the literature and/or inferred from volcanic deposits and morphological features observed remotely and in the field. To illustrate the effects of considering the expected eruption style in the construction of vent opening maps, we focus on the analysis of small-scale pyroclastic density currents derived from phreatomagmatic activity or from low-intensity magmatic volcanism. For the numerical simulation of these phenomena we adopted the recently developed branching energy cone model by using the program ECMapProb. Our results show that the implementation of thematic vent opening maps can produce significantly different hazard levels from those estimated with traditional, non-thematic maps.
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Giudicepietro, Flora, G. Macedonio, L. D’Auria et M. Martini. « Insight into Vent Opening Probability in Volcanic Calderas in the Light of a Sill Intrusion Model ». Pure and Applied Geophysics 173, no 5 (5 novembre 2015) : 1703–20. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00024-015-1190-y.

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Tadini, Alessandro, Andrew Harris, Julie Morin, Andrew Bevilacqua, Aline Peltier, Willy Aspinall, Stefano Ciolli et al. « Structured elicitation of expert judgement in real-time eruption scenarios : an exercise for Piton de la Fournaise volcano, La Réunion island ». Volcanica 5, no 1 (4 mai 2022) : 105–31. http://dx.doi.org/10.30909/vol.05.01.105131.

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Formalised elicitation of expert judgements has been used to help tackle several problematic societal issues, including volcanic crises and pandemic threats. We present an expert elicitation exercise for Piton de la Fournaise volcano, La Réunion island, held remotely in April 2021. This involved 28 experts from nine countries who considered a hypothetical effusive eruption crisis involving a new vent opening in a high-risk area. The tele-elicitation presented several challenges, but is a promising and workable option for application to future volcanic crises. Our exercise considered an “uncommon” eruptive scenario with a vent outside the present caldera and within inhabited areas, and provided uncertainty ranges for several hazard-related questions for such a scenario (e.g. probability of eruption within a defined timeframe; elapsed time until lava flow reaches a critical location, and other hazard management issues). Our exercise indicated that such a scenario would probably present very different characteristics compared to recent eruptions, and that it is fundamental to include well-prepared expert elicitations in updated civil protection evacuation plans to improve disaster response procedures.
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Zhang, Jianxi, Zhigang Cheng, Ying Tian, Lili Weng, Yiying Zhang, Xin Yang, Michael K. E. Schäfer, Qulian Guo et Changsheng Huang. « Cerebral Tissue Oxygen Saturation Correlates with Emergence from Propofol-Remifentanil Anesthesia : An Observational Cohort Study ». Journal of Clinical Medicine 11, no 16 (19 août 2022) : 4878. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/jcm11164878.

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Anesthesia emergence is accompanied by changes in cerebral circulation. It is unknown whether cerebral tissue oxygen saturation (SctO2) could be an indicator of emergence. Changes in SctO2, bispectral index (BIS), mean arterial pressure (MAP), and heart rate (HR) were evaluated during the emergence from propofol-remifentanil anesthesia. At the time of cessation of anesthetic delivery, SctO2, BIS, MAP, and HR values were recorded as baseline. The changes of these parameters from the baseline were recorded as Δ SctO2, Δ BIS, Δ MAP, and Δ HR. The behavioral signs (body movement, coughing, or eye opening) and response to commands (indicating regaining of consciousness) were used to define emergence states. Prediction probability (Pk) was used to examine the accuracy of SctO2, BIS, MAP, and HR as indicators of emergence. SctO2 showed an abrupt and distinctive increase when appearing behavioral signs. BIS, MAP, and HR, also increased but with a large inter-individual variability. Pk value of Δ SctO2 was 0.97 to predict the appearance behavioral signs from 2 min before that, which was much higher than the Pk values of Δ BIS (0.81), Δ MAP (0.71) and Δ HR (0.87). The regaining of consciousness was associated with a further increase in the SctO2 value.
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Thèses sur le sujet "Vent Opening Probability map"

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Cappello, Annalisa. « Probabilistic modelling of lava flow hazard at Mount Etna ». Doctoral thesis, Università di Catania, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/10761/1367.

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This thesis aims at presenting a groundbreaking methodology for lava flow hazard assessment that represents a challenging topic in modern volcanology. Specifically, the methodology is based on three main steps: (i) the construction of a spatiotemporal probability map for the future opening of new eruptive vents; (ii) the estimation of occurrence probabilities associated to classes of expected eruptions; and (iii) the overlapping of a large number of lava flows simulated using the MAGFLOW model. The results from these steps are processed in order to obtain a hazard map showing, for a given area, the probability of being affected by at least one lava flow inundation during the time interval considered. The preferred scenario for this study has been Mount Etna being one of the most intensively monitored volcanoes in the world, thereby offering large amounts of input data for the application of the proposed methodology.
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TADINI, ALESSANDRO. « Vent Opening Probability map and Pyroclastic Density Currents hazard assessment at Somma-Vesuvio through a multidisciplinary approach based on physical volcanology and numerical modeling ». Doctoral thesis, 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/2158/1079381.

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Il progetto di dottorato al termine del triennio ha permesso di raggiungere i seguenti obiettivi: a) costituzione di un database comprendente i dati vulcanologici più significativi per quanto riguarda lo sviluppo di una mappa di probabilità di apertura bocche all’interno della caldera del Somma-Vesuvio (SV); b) creazione di mappe di densità di probabilità per ogni dataset vulcanologico individuato in a) e combinazione lineare di tali mappe, opportunamente pesate tramite il giudizio degli esperti, per ottenere una prima mappa di probabilità apertura bocche con specifico riferimento al vulcanismo esplosivo; c) studio di terreno e di laboratorio di depositi selezionati di colate piroclastiche del SV per meglio definire le granulometrie iniziali dei flussi piroclastici, le aree invase dalle correnti e i volumi emessi; d) validazione di modelli fisici semplificati e simulazione numerica della formazione e propagazione dei flussi piroclastici utilizzando i nuovi parametri definiti in c), e) stima della pericolosità delle colate piroclastiche in caso di riattivazione del SV attraverso la creazione di una prima mappa probabilistica preliminare di invasione da flussi piroclastici. The PhD project, at the end of the 3 years, has allowed the achievement of the following objectives: a) the implementation of a Geo-Database which includes volcanological/structural data (where epistemic uncertainty has been quantified) useful for the development of a vent opening probability map within the present outline of the Somma-Vesuvio (SV) caldera; b) the definition of Probability Density Maps for each of the dataset defined in a) and the linear combination of such maps, with different weights defined after Structured Expert Judgement (SEJ) procedures, in order to obtain a first vent opening probability map with specific focus on explosive volcanism; c) field and laboratory analyses of selected PDC deposits in order to better define Total-Grain Size Distributions (TGSD), inundation areas and the volumes of eruptive units; d) the validation of simplified physical models and the numerical modeling of the formation and propagation of PDCs using as input parameters field data defined in c); e) PDC hazard assessment in case of a reactivation of SV through the implementation of a preliminary PDC probability invasion map for a specific scenario.
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Bevilacqua, Andrea. « Doubly stochastic models for volcanic vent opening probability and pyroclastic density current hazard at Campi Flegrei caldera ». Thesis, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/2122/13939.

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This thesis was developed and supported thanks to the agreement between Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia and Scuola Normale Superiore di Pisa (Convenzione INGV-SNS 2009-2011). The thesis has been partially developed in the framework of the project ‘V1 - Stima della pericolosità vulcanica in termini probabilistici’ funded by Dipartimento della Protezione Civile. Partial support was also provided by the EU-funded project ‘MEDSUV - Mediterranean Supervolcanoes’ (grant 308665) and the COST Action ‘EJN - Expert Judgement Network: bridging the gap between scientific uncertainty and evidence-based decision making’ (IS1304).
Scuola Normale Superiore di Pisa
Published
6V. Pericolosità vulcanica e contributi alla stima del rischio
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Chapitres de livres sur le sujet "Vent Opening Probability map"

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Bevilacqua, Andrea. « Vent opening probability maps ». Dans Doubly Stochastic Models for Volcanic Hazard Assessment at Campi Flegrei Caldera, 27–60. Pisa : Scuola Normale Superiore, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-88-7642-577-6_2.

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