Littérature scientifique sur le sujet « Unemployment – England – Mathematical models »

Abstract We analyse the relationships between test scores, truancy and labour market outcomes for youths. Our econometric approach enables us to disentangle the observable direct and indirect effects of truancy and test scores on the risk of unemployment or ‘Not in Education, Employment or Training’ (NEET) from their unobserved effects. Using data for England and Wales, we show that models of youth unemployment and NEET that ignore the correlation between the unobservable determinants of test scores and truancy will lead to misleading inference about the strength of their effects. Truancy has an indirect observed effect on labour market outcomes via its effect on test scores, and a weak direct effect. The unobserved component of truancy has a direct effect on labour market outcomes. Test scores have a direct effect on those outcomes, but also mitigate the detrimental effects of truancy. Our analysis raises important implications for education policy.

The objective of this research was to provide a mathematical model that can explain the relationship between the unemployment rate, openness to technology, and people development initiatives to overcome technology development. These research discussions were carried out in the context of predicted technological developments related to Industry 4.0 which caused the loss of several jobs and formed new business models that will provide new jobs. The method used is to using system approach so that mathematical modeling can be obtained from Influence Diagrams which have been designed in previous research. Mathematical models illustrate that openness to technology is directly proportional to the number of unemployed. And the unemployment rate is inversely proportional to the level of human resource development. Development of human resources that are too large without being carried out with openness and technological progress, can also cause unemployment. This mathematical model can be used as a decision maker to understand and establish appropriate policies in the face of this Industry 4.0 change.

This study examines the impact of the determinants of new firm formation in New England at the county level from 1999 to 2009. Based on the Spatial Durbin panel model that accounts for spillover effects, it is found that population density and human capital positively affect single-unit firm births within a county and its neighbors. Population growth rate also exerts a significant positive impact on new firm formation, but most of the effect is from spatial spillovers. On the contrary, the ratio of large to small firm in terms of employment size and unemployment rate negatively influence single-unit firm births both within counties and among neighbors. However, there is no significant impact of local financial capital and personal income growth on new firm formation.

Many mathematical models have been developed in the last years in order to analyze economic phenomena and processes. Some of these models are optimization models, static or dynamic, while others are developed specially to study the evolution of economic phenomena. The topic of this paper is forecasting with nonlinear models. A few well-known nonlinear models are introduced, and their properties are discussed. The variety of nonlinear relationships is important both from the perspective of estimation and from the precision of forecasts in the medium and especially long term. Most nonlinear forecasting methods and all methods based on neural networks lead to predictions that have a better quality than the forecasts obtained by linear methods. The last section of this paper contains a detailed study of the relationship between inflation and unemployment and a numerical application with numerical data from Romania.

ObjectiveTo assess trends in inequalities in Children Looked After (CLA) in England between 2004 and 2019, after controlling for unemployment, a marker of recession and risk factor for child maltreatment.DesignLongitudinal local area ecological analysis.Setting150 English upper-tier local authorities.ParticipantsChildren under the age of 18 years.Primary outcome measureThe annual age-standardised rate of children starting to be looked after (CLA rate) across English local authorities, grouped into quintiles based on their level of income deprivation. Slope indices of inequality were estimated using longitudinal segmented mixed-effects models, controlling for unemployment.ResultsSince 2008, there has been a precipitous rise in CLA rates and a marked widening of inequalities. Unemployment was associated with rising CLA rates: for each percentage point increase in unemployment rate, an estimated additional 9 children per 100 000 per year (95% CI 6 to 11) became looked after the following year. However, inequalities increased independently of the effect of unemployment. Between 2007 and 2019, after controlling for unemployment, the gap between the most and least deprived areas increased by 15 children per 100 000 per year (95% CI 4 to 26) relative to the 2004–2006 trend.ConclusionsThe dramatic increase in the rate of children starting to be looked after has been greater in poorer areas and in areas more deeply affected by recession. But trends in unemployment do not explain the decade-long rise in inequalities, suggesting that other socioeconomic factors, including rising child poverty and reduced spending on children’s services, may be fuelling inequalities. Policies to safely reduce the CLA rate should urgently address the social determinants of child health and well-being.

Subject. The article addresses projections of regional budget revenues, using distributed lag models. Objectives. The purpose is to review economic and statistical tools that are suitable for the analysis of relationship between the revenues of the regional budget system and regional macroeconomic predictors. Methods. The study draws on statistical, constructive, economic and mathematical methods of analysis. Results. In models with quantitative variables obtained under the Almon method, the significant predictors in the forecasting of regional budget revenues are determined mainly by the balanced financial result, the consumer price index, which characterizes inflation processes in the region, and the unemployment rate being the key indicator of the labor market. Models with quantitative variables obtained through the Koyck transformation are characterized by a wider range of predictors, the composition of which is determined by the peculiarities of economic situation in regions. The two-year forecast provides the average lag obtained during the evaluation of the models. The exception is the impact of unemployment rate, which is characterized as long-term. Conclusions. To generate forecasts of budget parameters, the results of both the Koyck method and the Almon method should be considered, though the former is more promising.

ObjectivesAn association between youth unemployment and poorer mental health later in life has been found in several countries. Little is known about whether this association is consistent across individuals or differs in strength. We adopt a quantile regression approach to explore heterogeneity in the association between youth unemployment and later mental health along the mental health distribution.DesignProspective longitudinal cohort of secondary schoolchildren in England followed from age 13/14 in 2004 to age 25 in 2015.SettingEngland, UK.Participants7707 participants interviewed at age 25.Primary and secondary outcome measures12-Item General Health Questionnaire (GHQ) Likert score, a measure of minor psychiatric morbidity.ResultsYouth unemployment was related to worse mental health at age 25. The association was several times stronger at deciles of GHQ representing the poorest levels of mental health. This association was only partly attenuated when adjusting for confounding variables and for current employment status. In fully adjusted models not including current employment status, marginal effects at the 50th percentile were 0.73 (95% CI −0.05 to 1.54, b=0.11) points, while marginal effects at the 90th percentile were 3.76 (95% CI 1.82 to 5.83; b=0.58) points. The results were robust to different combinations of control variables.ConclusionsThere is heterogeneity in the longitudinal association between youth unemployment and mental health, with associations more pronounced at higher levels of psychological ill health. Youth unemployment may signal clinically relevant future psychological problems among some individuals.

The Office for National Statistics Longitudinal Study of England and Wales is used to describe the prevalence in individuals, over time, of a set of variables commonly used in the construction of indicators of area deprivation. These variables are: housing tenure, car access, low skill, and unemployment. Over three censuses between 1971 and 1991, these states appear neither completely permanent nor entirely random. The picture is one of changing fortunes; many individuals temporarily disadvantaged revolving around a core of those experiencing more long-term disadvantage. This is especially true of unemployment. Used in multivariate models to predict health and deprivation outcomes in 1991, the individual characteristics from both 1971 and 1981 have stronger predictive power than ward scores on deprivation indicators. The relation between spatial mobility and the health and social outcomes appears favourable only for young adults.

The problems of development of united territorial communities, in particular unemployment and economic problems, are considered. Communities, in most cases, lack the resources to address economic and other issues. Therefore, it is necessary to create self-sufficient communities in which there are enough financial instruments for their own development. The mathematical model of the decision support system for the development of territorial communities using the agro-industrial sector was considered. An important step in building a mathematical model of the agro-industrial complex is to take into account the specifics of agriculture. The article considers a mathematical model of linear multifactor regression, which describes the relationship between the number of resources expended and the volume of output. Since the processes of economics and production processes of agriculture are complex, it is difficult to describe them using only linear deterministic models. It is common for task variables to take some discrete values or values from a certain interval. This situation makes the search difficult.

The paper is searching for an answer to the question how the British model affected economic development in its mother country, the United Kingdom. The statistical analysis, models of mathematical economics and econometric investigation make it probable to conclude that there was a substantial difference in success between the Thatcherite and the Blairite economic policies; the latter proved more effective. It is particularly remarkable that the Blairite model, connecting privatization with a successful employment policy, reduced unemployment and social sensitivity, has not only speeded up economic growth but also improved economic equilibrium, curtailing, among others, the budget deficit.

The thesis examines the impact of a partial switch to a share system in Canada on unemployment and inflation. Simulations with an independent Canadian macro model and Canadian data for the period 1973-1983 show that profit sharing will not always resolve unemployment and inflation, as claimed by Martin Weitzman. Some combinations of the share parameters resolve them, while others aggravate them. Thus, the combinations of the share parameters play a key role in terms of impact of the profit sharing on unemployment and inflation.

The goal of this dissertation is to illustrate the importance and feasibility of conducting policy evaluations which pay attention to both efficiency and equity. Introducing an equity criterion necessarily involves introducing value judgements, but I suggest that objectivity can be maintained through the adoption of an 'ethically flexible' approach. That is, an analyst can avoid imposing his own particular values by explicitly conducting the evaluation from a number of different ethical positions. This dissertation illustrates the feasibility of an ethically flexible approach by carrying out an evaluation of the proposals for the reform of the Canadian Unemployment Insurance (UI) programme made by the Macdonald and Forget Commissions. The evaluation proceeds in four stages: 1. Behavioural models which take account of the existence of unemployment and UI are developed. 2. The models are estimated using an appropriate Canadian data set. 3. The estimated models are used to simulate behavioural responses to UI reform. 4. Estimation and simulation results are used to carry out the ethically flexible welfare evaluation. Two household labour-supply models are used. The first assumes that observed unemployment is the outcome of utility-maximizing choices. The second introduces the possibility that demand-side constraints may interfere with supply-side choices. A form of switching regression with sample separation unknown is developed to allow estimation of 'constrained' labour-supply functions. Additional problems for estimation include a budget constraint which is non-linear as a result of the UI programme and a dependent variable, weeks of leisure (unemployment), which is limited to values between zero and fifty-two. Both unconstrained and constrained models are estimated for single men, single women and couples, using linear expenditure systems and data from the 1982 Survey of Consumer Finance. Estimation results suggest that constrained labour-supply functions are less elastic than unconstrained functions, that there is no observable difference between the labour-supply behaviour of men and women in a constrained model, and that cross-effects are important in the determination of the labour-supply behaviour of couples. Estimated probabilities of constraint take an average value of (approximately) 80 percent. The simulation of behavioural responses to UI reform using the estimated unconstrained labour-supply functions suggests that large reductions in unemployment might be anticipated. Simulation using the constrained labour-supply functions suggests that responses may be negligible. Welfare evaluation measures are constructed for three ethical perspectives: The first is in the spirit of Utilitarianism; the second is in the spirit of John Rawls' theory of justice; the third is in the spirit of Robert Nozick's entitlement theory. The 'Utilitarian' measure is a mean of order r over the distribution of individual utilities. (Explicit interpersonal comparisons are required for these evaluations.) The 'Rawlsian' measure is a mean of order r over the distribution of individual incomes, censored at the poverty line to focus attention on the worst-off group. The 'Entitlement' measure is a measure of the distance between the distribution of individual costs (premiums) and benefits derived from UI. Three factors are important in the- determination of the welfare-evaluation results. First, the ethical position adopted matters. Both UI reform proposals appear welfare-reducing from a Utilitarian perspective and welfare-improving from an Entitlement perspective. Second, for the Rawlsian and Utilitarian evaluations, the assumed degree of inequality aversion is important. Finally, assumptions made about the nature of unemployment are critical. This is most clearly illustrated by the Rawlsian results. If unemployment is assumed to be the outcome of utility-maximizing choices, then both reform proposals appear welfare-improving: poor people choose to work more and their incomes increase. If unemployment may be the result of demand-side constraints so that increases in employment are not possible, then UI reform merely results in reductions in income for the worst-off group. These results illustrate the importance of both the equity and the efficiency dimensions of a policy evaluation. This thesis demonstrates the feasibility of conducting an objective policy evaluation which pays attention to both.
Arts, Faculty of
Vancouver School of Economics
Graduate

Inflation and unemployment are perhaps the two most important challenges that face the South African economy of today. Firstly, the study examines the relationship between monetary policy and the two economic fundamentals (inflation and unemployment), using the VEC modeling technique. The model regresses the monetary policy variable against inflation and unemployment growth over the period 1980-2008. The results suggest that (1) there is a long run relationship between inflation and unemployment (2) monetary policy reacts more to variations in inflation compared to variations in unemployment. Secondly, the relationship between inflation and unemployment as explained by the Phillips curve is investigated. The results show that there is a positive relationship between inflation and unemployment.

Résumé de la thèse d’Alexandre Janiak intitulée « Essais sur la mobilité géographique, sectorielle et intra-sectorielle en périodes de changement structurel »

Le changement structurel est un processus nécessaire qui améliore considérablement les conditions de vie dans nos sociétés. Il peut découler par exemple de l'introduction de nouvelles avancées technologiques qui permettent d'augmenter à long terme la productivité agrégée dans nos économies. En retour, la hausse de la productivité a un impact sur notre consommation de tous les jours. Elle nous permet notamment de vivre dans un plus grand confort. Les individus peuvent alors s'épanouir dans leur ensemble. Il est évident que le changement structurel peut prendre d'autres formes que celle du changement technologique, mais il est souvent issu d'une transformation des forces qui influencent les marchés et en général aboutit à long terme à une amélioration du bien-être global.

Mais le changement structurel est aussi un processus douloureux. Il peut durer plusieurs décennies et, durant cette période, nous sommes beaucoup à devoir en supporter les coûts. Comme nous allons l'illustrer dans ce chapitre introductif, le changement structurel a pour conséquence une modification du rapport aux facteurs de production, ce qui alors mène à modifier l'ensemble des prix relatifs qui caractérisent une économie. En particulier, la modification des prix est due à une transformation des demandes relatives de facteurs. Ces derniers se révèlent alors inutiles à l'exécution de certaines tâches ou sont fortement demandés dans d'autres points de l'économie.

Souvent, le changement structurel entraîne alors un processus de réallocation. Des pans entiers de travailleurs doivent par conséquent se réallouer à d'autres tâches. Les lois du marché les incitent ainsi à devoir s'adapter à un nouveau contexte, mais elles le font pour un futur meilleur.

Cette thèse s'intéresse à cette problématique. Elle suppose que tout processus de changement structurel implique un mouvement de réallocation des facteurs de production, notamment des travailleurs puisqu'il s'agit d'une thèse en économie du travail, mais qu'un tel processus engendre souvent des coûts non négligeables. Elle se veut surtout positive, mais la nature des questions qu'elle pose mène naturellement à un débat normatif. Par exemple, elle cherche des réponses aux interrogations suivantes: comment s'ajuste une économie au changement structurel? Quelle est la nature des coûts associés au changement? Ces coûts peuvent-ils en excéder les gains? Le processus de réallocation en vaut-il vraiment la peine? Les gains issus d'un tel processus sont-ils distribués de manière égale?

La thèse est composée de quatre chapitres qui chacun considère l’impact d’un changement structurel particulier.

Le premier chapitre s’intéresse à l’impact de l’ouverture internationale aux échanges sur le niveau de l’emploi. Il s’appuie sur des travaux récents en économie internationale qui ont montré que la libéralisation du commerce mène à l’expansion des firmes les plus productives et à la destruction des entreprises dont la productivité est moins élevée. La raison de cette dichotomie est la présence d’un coût à l’entrée sur le marché des exports qui a été documentée par de nombreuses études. Certaines entreprises se développent suite à la libéralisation car elles ont accès à de nouveaux marchés et d’autres meurent car elles ne peuvent pas faire face aux entreprises les plus productives. Puisque le commerce crée à la fois des emplois et en détruit d’autres, ce chapitre a pour but de déterminer l’effet net de ce processus de réallocation sur le niveau agrégé de l’emploi.

Dans cette perspective, il présente un modèle avec firmes hétérogènes où pour exporter une entreprise doit payer un coût fixe, ce qui implique que seules les entreprises les plus productives peuvent entrer sur le marché international. Le modèle génère le processus de réallocation que l’ouverture au commerce international suppose. En effet, comme les entreprises les plus productives veulent exporter, elles vont donc embaucher plus de travailleurs, mais comme elles sont également capables de fixer des prix moins élevés et que les biens sont substituables, les entreprises les moins productives vont donc faire faillite. L’effet net sur l’emploi est négatif car les exportateurs ont à la marge moins d’incitants à embaucher des travailleurs du au comportement de concurrence monopolistique.

Le chapitre analyse également d’un point de vue empirique l’effet d’une ouverture au commerce au niveau sectoriel sur les flux d’emplois. Les résultats empiriques confirment ceux du modèle, c’est-à-dire qu’une hausse de l’ouverture au commerce génère plus de destructions que de créations d’emplois au niveau d’un secteur.

Le second chapitre considère un modèle similaire à celui du premier chapitre, mais se focalise plutôt sur l’effet du commerce en termes de bien-être. Il montre notamment que l’impact dépend en fait de la courbe de demande de travail agrégée. Si la courbe est croissante, l’effet est positif, alors qu’il est négatif si elle est décroissante.

Le troisième chapitre essaie de comprendre quels sont les déterminants de la mobilité géographique. Le but est notamment d’étudier le niveau du chômage en Europe. En effet, la littérature a souvent affirmé que la faible mobilité géographique du travail est un facteur de chômage lorsque les travailleurs sans emploi préfèrent rester dans leur région d’origine plutôt que d’aller prospecter dans les régions les plus dynamiques. Il semble donc rationnel pour ces individus de créer des liens sociaux locaux si ils anticipent qu’ils ne déménageront pas vers une autre région. De même, une fois le capital social local accumulé, les incitants à la mobilité sont réduits.

Le troisième chapitre illustre donc un modèle caractérisé par diverses complémentarités qui mènent à des équilibres multiples (un équilibre avec beaucoup de capital social local, peu de mobilité et un chômage élevé et un autre avec des caractéristiques opposées). Le modèle montre également que le capital social local est systématiquement négatif pour la mobilité et peut être négatif pour l’emploi, mais d’autres types de capital social peuvent en fait faire augmenter le niveau de l’emploi.

Dans ce troisième chapitre, une illustration empirique qui se base sur plusieurs mesures montre que le capital social est un facteur dominant d’immobilité. C’est aussi un facteur de chômage lorsque le capital social est clairement local, alors que d’autres types de capital social s’avèrent avoir un effet positif sur le taux d’emploi. Cette partie empirique illustre également la causalité inverse où des individus qui vivent dans une région qui ne correspond pas à leur région de naissance accumulent moins de capital social local, ce qui donne de la crédibilité à une théorie d’équilibres multiples.

Finalement, en observant que les individus dans le Sud de l’Europe semblent accumuler plus de capital social local, alors que dans le Nord de l’Europe on tend à investir dans des types plus généraux de capital social, nous suggérons qu’une partie du problème de chômage en Europe peut mieux se comprendre grâce au concept de capital social local.

Enfin, le quatrième chapitre s’intéresse à l’effet de la croissance économique sur la qualité des emplois. En particulier, il analyse le fait qu’un individu puisse avoir un emploi qui corresponde ou non à ses qualifications, ce qui, dans le contexte de ce chapitre, détermine s’il s’agit de bons ou mauvais emplois.

Ce chapitre se base sur deux mécanismes qui ont été largement abordés par la littérature. Le premier est le concept de « destruction créatrice » qui dit que la croissance détruit de nouveaux emplois car elle les rend obsolètes. Le second est le processus de « capitalisation » qui nous dit que la croissance va créer de nombreux emplois car les entreprises anticipent des profits plus élevés dans le futur.

Alors que des études récentes, suggèrent que la destruction créatrice ne permet pas d’expliquer le lien entre croissance et chômage, ce chapitre montre qu’un tel concept permet de mieux comprendre la relation entre croissance et qualité des emplois.

Avec des données issues du panel européen, nous illustrons que la corrélation entre croissance et qualité des emplois est positive. Nous présentons une série de trois modèles qui diffèrent de la manière suivante :(i) le fait de pouvoir chercher un emploi ou non alors qu’on en a déjà un, (ii) le fait pour une entreprise de pouvoir acquérir des équipements modernes. Les résultats suggèrent que pour expliquer l’effet de la croissance sur la qualité des emplois, la meilleure stratégie est une combinaison entre les effets dits de destruction créatrice et de capitalisation. Alors que le premier effet influence le taux de destruction des mauvais emplois, le second a un impact sur la mobilité du travail des mauvais vers les bons emplois.

Doctorat en Sciences économiques et de gestion
info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

Defence date: 30 March 1998
Examining Board: Prof. John Micklewright, EUI and UNICEF, Florence, (Supervisor); Prof. Stephen Pudney, University of Leicester; Prof. Robert Waldmann, EUI and IGIER, Milan; Prof. Ian Walker, Keele University

Leung Ping-Fai.
Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2002.
Includes bibliographical references (leaves 62-64).
Abstracts in English and Chinese.
Abstract --- p.i
Acknowledgement --- p.iii
Table of Content --- p.iv
List of Appendices --- p.v
Chapter Chapter 1. --- Introduction --- p.1
Chapter Chapter 2. --- Literature Review --- p.6
Chapter 2.1 --- Public Goods and Taxation --- p.6
Chapter 2.2 --- Public Goods as Intermediate Goods --- p.12
Chapter 2.3 --- Wage Differentials and Unemployment --- p.18
Chapter Chapter 3. --- The Basic Model and Effects of Public Inputs --- p.22
Chapter Chapter 4. --- "Public Inputs, Financing Constraints and National Welfare: The Tariff Case" --- p.30
Chapter Chapter 5. --- "Public Inputs, Financing Constraints and National Welfare: The Quota Case" --- p.43
Chapter Chapter 6. --- Concluding Remarks --- p.55
Chapter Chapter 7. --- Appendices --- p.57
References --- p.62

by Chan, Yuk Fai Weslie.
Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 1999.
Includes bibliographical references (leaves 67-70).
Abstracts in English and Chinese.
Acknowledgments --- p.ii
English Abstract --- p.iv
Chinese Abstract --- p.v
Table of Contents --- p.vi
List of Tables --- p.viii
List of Figures --- p.ix
List of Appendices --- p.x
Chapter Chapter 1. --- Introduction --- p.1
Chapter Chapter 2. --- Theoretical Background --- p.6
Chapter 2.1 --- Concepts of Beveridge Curve --- p.7
Chapter 2.2 --- Beveridge Curve Derived from Labori Market Stock-Flow Identities --- p.15
Chapter 2.2.1 --- Some Basic Labor Market Stork-Flow Identities --- p.15
Chapter 2.2.2 --- Steady State Properties of Beveridge Curve --- p.19
Chapter 2.2.3 --- Comparative Static Analysis of Beveridge Curve --- p.20
Chapter 2.2.4 --- Short Run Dynamics along Beveridge Curve --- p.24
Chapter 2.3 --- Beveridge Curve Derived from Matching Function Approach --- p.25
Chapter Chapter 3. --- Empirical Evidences --- p.28
Chapter 3.1 --- Decomposition of Total Unemployment of Hong Kong --- p.28
Chapter 3.2 --- Beveridge Curve of Hong Kong --- p.31
Chapter 3.2.1 --- Time Series Estimation of Hong Kong's Beveridge Curve --- p.32
Chapter 3.2.2 --- Cross Sectorial Estimation of Hong Kong's Beveridge Curve --- p.33
Chapter 3.3 --- Natural Unemployment Rate --- p.34
Chapter 3.4 --- Unemployment-Vacancy Ratio --- p.36
Chapter 3.4.1 --- Relation between U-V Ratio and K-L ratio --- p.38
Chapter Chapter 4. --- Conclusion --- p.41
Tables --- p.42
Figures --- p.46
Appendices --- p.56
Bibliography --- p.64

Wong, Pui Hang.
Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2007.
Includes bibliographical references (leaves 58-61).
Abstracts in English and Chinese.
Chapter 1 --- Introduction --- p.1
Chapter 1.1 --- Characterizing Illegal Immigrants --- p.2
Chapter 1.2 --- Job Displacement --- p.5
Chapter 2 --- Minimum Wage Unemployment --- p.10
Chapter 2.1 --- The Basic Model --- p.11
Chapter 2.2 --- The Effect of Illegal Immigration --- p.14
Chapter 2.2.1 --- The Solow Model --- p.15
Chapter 2.2.2 --- The Decentralized Ramsey Model --- p.21
Chapter 3 --- Frictional Unemployment --- p.26
Chapter 3.1 --- The Basic Model --- p.27
Chapter 3.1.1 --- The Economy with Illegal Migrants --- p.32
Chapter 3.2 --- Productivity Effect --- p.36
Chapter 3.2.1 --- Comparative Statics --- p.38
Chapter 3.2.2 --- Unemployment --- p.40
Chapter 3.3 --- Exploitation Effect --- p.41
Chapter 3.3.1 --- A Simulation Example --- p.47
Chapter 3.4 --- Immigration Controls --- p.48
Chapter 3.4.1 --- Workplace Sanction --- p.49
Chapter 3.4.2 --- Deportation & Border Patrol --- p.53
Chapter 4 --- Conclusion --- p.56

In the context of global digital transformations and COVID-19, the field of e-commerce is actively evolving and has a significant impact on the development of global and national economies. The aim of the study is to buildeconomic and mathematical models to assess the impact of e-commerce on economic development in Ukraine. The economic-mathematical models were constructed on the basis of Cobb-Douglas production function, regression analysis was performed using the computer program Excel. The obtained results testify to close interrelation and influence of e-commerce on the indicators of economic development of Ukraine. Namely, with the increase in the volume of Internet trade in Ukraine there is a decrease in unemployment rate and an increase in GDP per capita. The development of the e-commerce market will help reduce unemployment, as well as increase GDP in Ukraine. Thus, the spread of e-commerce will contribute to the development of national sectors of the economy and improve the economic development of Ukraine.