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Littérature scientifique sur le sujet « Traffic accidents Costs Mathematical models »

Auteur : Grafiati

Publié le 4 juin 2021

Mis à jour le 3 février 2022

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Articles de revues sur le sujet "Traffic accidents Costs Mathematical models"

MOUSSA, NAJEM. « SIMULATION STUDY OF TRAFFIC ACCIDENTS IN BIDIRECTIONAL TRAFFIC MODELS ». International Journal of Modern Physics C 21, n^o 12 (décembre 2010) : 1501–15. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s0129183110016007.

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Conditions for the occurrence of bidirectional collisions are developed based on the Simon–Gutowitz bidirectional traffic model. Three types of dangerous situations can occur in this model. We analyze those corresponding to head-on collision; rear-end collision and lane-changing collision. Using Monte Carlo simulations, we compute the probability of the occurrence of these collisions for different values of the oncoming cars' density. It is found that the risk of collisions is important when the density of cars in one lane is small and that of the other lane is high enough. The influence of different proportions of heavy vehicles is also studied. We found that heavy vehicles cause an important reduction of traffic flow on the home lane and provoke an increase of the risk of car accidents.

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Shiau, Yau-Ren, Ching-Hsing Tsai, Yung-Hsiang Hung et Yu-Ting Kuo. « The Application of Data Mining Technology to Build a Forecasting Model for Classification of Road Traffic Accidents ». Mathematical Problems in Engineering 2015 (2015) : 1–8. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2015/170635.

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With the ever-increasing number of vehicles on the road, traffic accidents have also increased, resulting in the loss of lives and properties, as well as immeasurable social costs. The environment, time, and region influence the occurrence of traffic accidents. The life and property loss is expected to be reduced by improving traffic engineering, education, and administration of law and advocacy. This study observed 2,471 traffic accidents which occurred in central Taiwan from January to December 2011 and used the Recursive Feature Elimination (RFE) of Feature Selection to screen the important factors affecting traffic accidents. It then established models to analyze traffic accidents with various methods, such as Fuzzy Robust Principal Component Analysis (FRPCA), Backpropagation Neural Network (BPNN), and Logistic Regression (LR). The proposed model aims to probe into the environments of traffic accidents, as well as the relationships between the variables of road designs, rule-violation items, and accident types. The results showed that the accuracy rate of classifiers FRPCA-BPNN (85.89%) and FRPCA-LR (85.14%) combined with FRPCA is higher than that of BPNN (84.37%) and LR (85.06%) by 1.52% and 0.08%, respectively. Moreover, the performance of FRPCA-BPNN and FRPCA-LR combined with FRPCA in classification prediction is better than that of BPNN and LR.

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Retallack, Angus Eugene, et Bertram Ostendorf. « Relationship Between Traffic Volume and Accident Frequency at Intersections ». International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 17, n^o 4 (21 février 2020) : 1393. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17041393.

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Driven by the high social costs and emotional trauma that result from traffic accidents around the world, research into understanding the factors that influence accident occurrence is critical. There is a lack of consensus about how the management of congestion may affect traffic accidents. This paper aims to improve our understanding of this relationship by analysing accidents at 120 intersections in Adelaide, Australia. Data comprised of 1629 motor vehicle accidents with traffic volumes from a dataset of more than five million hourly measurements. The effect of rainfall was also examined. Results showed an approximately linear relationship between traffic volume and accident frequency at lower traffic volumes. In the highest traffic volumes, poisson and negative binomial models showed a significant quadratic explanatory term as accident frequency increases at a higher rate. This implies that focusing management efforts on avoiding these conditions would be most effective in reducing accident frequency. The relative risk of rainfall on accident frequency decreases with increasing congestion index. Accident risk is five times greater during rain at low congestion levels, successively decreasing to no elevated risk at the highest congestion level. No significant effect of congestion index on accident severity was detected.

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Setiawan, Herry, et Amsar Yunan. « Classification of Walking Cars and Pedestrians for the use of Automatic Incident Detection as an Effort to Reduce Risk of Accidents on the Highway ». Jurnal Inotera 5, n^o 1 (15 mai 2020) : 50–55. http://dx.doi.org/10.31572/inotera.vol5.iss1.2020.id98.

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Traffic problems become very important to minimize the number of accidents. Recorded in 2017, the death toll from accidents reached 703 people. While in 2018 503 people died or fell by 28%. This figure is considered to be the third largest killer, under coronary heart disease and tuberculosis / tuberculosis. Among several causes of accidents such as against the flow of traffic, stops on the road, pedestrians and speeds that are too low compared to other vehicles. Even though the traffic signs are already installed. The low level of awareness of road users will increase the number of accidents. A detection system for potential accidents is needed to reduce the risk and can be used for the investigation process if an accident occurs. The application of a traffic accident prediction system will be a solution to provide a warning of potential accidents. Early detection of incidents is very important to limit consequences such as delays for other road users, lower costs, less time commitment to emergency services, as well as to prevent accidents. Video processing obtained from CCTV installed at intersections, highways, bridges and tunnels will detect pedestrians and oncoming cars automatically. Detection is done by processing each video frame to determine the foreground by the Gaussian mixture models method of each video frame.

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TSENG, JIE-JUN, MING-JER LEE et SAI-PING LI. « HEAVY-TAILED DISTRIBUTIONS IN FATAL TRAFFIC ACCIDENTS : ROLE OF HUMAN ACTIVITIES ». International Journal of Modern Physics C 20, n^o 08 (août 2009) : 1281–90. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s0129183109014345.

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Human activities can play a crucial role in the statistical properties of observables in many complex systems such as social, technological, and economic systems. We demonstrate this by looking into the heavy-tailed distributions of observables in fatal plane and car accidents. Their origin is examined and can be understood as stochastic processes that are related to human activities. Simple mathematical models are proposed to illustrate such processes and compared with empirical results obtained from existing databanks.

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Borucka, Anna, Edward Kozłowski, Piotr Oleszczuk et Andrzej Świderski. « Predictive analysis of the impact of the time of day on road accidents in Poland ». Open Engineering 11, n^o 1 (12 décembre 2020) : 142–50. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/eng-2021-0017.

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AbstractThe steady increase in the number of road users and their growing mobility mean that the issue of road safety is still a topical one. Analyses of factors influencing the number of road traffic accidents contribute to the improvement of road safety. Because changes in traffic volume follow a daily rhythm, hour of the day is an important factor affecting the number of crashes. The present article identifies selected mathematical models which can be used to describe the number of road traffic accidents as a function of the time of their occurrence during the day. The study of the seasonality of the number of accidents in particular hours was assessed. The distributions of the number of accidents in each hour were compared using the Kruskal-Wallis and Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests. Multidimensional scaling was used to present the found similarities and differences. Similar hours were grouped into clusters, which were used in further analysis to construct the ARMAXmodel and the Holt-Winters model. Finally, the predictive capabilities of each model were assessed.

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Povalyaev, S., et O. Saraiev. « MODELING OF THE MECHANISM OF VEHICLE OVERTURNING IN THE PROCESS OF DEVELOPMENT OF ROAD TRAFFIC ACCIDENT ». Theory and Practice of Forensic Science and Criminalistics 20, n^o 2 (4 décembre 2019) : 320–28. http://dx.doi.org/10.32353/khrife.2.2019.24.

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The development of mathematical models of vehicle overturning has been given significant attention by many researchers because of the need to obtain reliable information on the circumstances of road traffic accidents. Research of road traffic accidents with the overturning of vehicles is related with the difficulty to determinate the mechanism of overturning, because expert calculation methods do not always use the adapted mathematical models. Most of the methods focus on determining the minimum (critical) speed of vehicles, which leads to its overturning. However, the real speed of vehicles before overturning can be much higher. In this paper, a mathematical model of the process of vehicle overturning after a collision with an immovable lateral obstacle is given. Thus the overturning moment caused by the inertia forces acts on the vehicle, and the moment from the gravity that holds the vehicle from overturning. It is necessary to mark that the shoulder of moment from gravity changes from a maximal value to 0 in the process of vehicle overturning. The mathematical model is based on the basic equation of dynamics for rotational motion. The developed mathematical model is a nonlinear homogeneous differential equation of second order. A solution of this equation is obtained that allows us to determine the conditions for the vehicles overturning and to investigate the basic parameters of the movement of vehicles in the process of overturning from the moment when the center of mass of the vehicle begins to rise until the moment of its maximum lifting. A comparison of the results of calculating the critical speed of vehicles with results obtained on the basis of the law of energy conservation was carried out. The results are fully agreed. The numerical results obtained using a mathematical model for a particular vehicle have been analyzed.

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MOUSSA, NAJEM. « DANGEROUS SITUATIONS IN TWO-LANE TRAFFIC FLOW MODELS ». International Journal of Modern Physics C 16, n^o 07 (juillet 2005) : 1133–48. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s0129183105007790.

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This paper investigates the probability of car accidents (PCA) in two-lane traffic flow models. We introduce new conditions for the occurrence of dangerous situations (DS) caused by an unexpected lane changing vehicles. Two different lane changing rules are considered, say symmetric and asymmetric. For the symmetric rules, we investigate the influence of the Nagel–Schreckenberg parameters such as the maximal speed, the randomization probability, …, on the PCA when vehicle moves forward or changes lanes. It is found that the forward PCA is as likely as that in one-lane traffic model. As regards to lane changing, the properties of the PCA are qualitatively different from those in one-lane traffic. For the asymmetric rules, we investigate the effect of the slack parameter Δ, introduced to adjust the inversion point of lane-usage, on the PCA. Contrarily to one-lane traffic, the forward PCA in the right lane exhibits two maximums for some range of Δ; the first one is located at low density and the second at high density. The lane changing PCA from right to left is found to decrease with increase of Δ. However, no DS exist when vehicles change from left to right.

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Kurganov, V. M., M. V. Gryaznov et K. A. Davydov. « CITY-FORMING ENTERPRISES : RELIABILITY AND REDUCED COSTS OF THE PASSENGERS’ TRANSPORTATION ». Russian Automobile and Highway Industry Journal 17, n^o 1 (5 mars 2020) : 98–109. http://dx.doi.org/10.26518/2071-7296-2020-17-1-98-109.

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Introduction. The paper substantiates the relevance of reducing costs for regular passenger traffic and increasing their reliability in relation to cities with city-forming enterprises. The organizational and technological specificity of the regular route network of urban transport in such cities is disclosed. The authors propose a method for organizing regular transportation routes based on a rational combination of basic routes that require boarding and disembarking passengers only at stopping points and backup routes with boarding and disembarking passengers in any place not prohibited by the rules of road traffic. The authors demonstrate route network optimization of the regular passenger transportation using the proposed economic and mathematical model and taking into account the costs of forming the infrastructure for organizing traffic on backup routes, operating costs of transportation, as well as the cost of eliminating failures in urban transport. The developed mathematical model for assessing the reliability of regular passenger transportation differs from the well-known models, which take into account the availability of backup routes in the regular route network. The research proves the practical implementation of the proposed recommendations by the example of public transport routes in Magnitogorsk.Materials and methods. The authors used the analysis of scientific and regulatory literature; economic and mathematical modeling of transport processes; methods for calculating the reliability of technical and transport systems; the statistical, technical and economic system analysis.Results. As a result, the authors revealed the optimization of the economic and mathematical model of the regular passenger transportation in cities with city-forming enterprises and a mathematical model for assessing the reliability of regular passenger transportation. Moreover, the paper presented practical recommendations on the organization of reserve routes for regular passenger transport on the example of Magnitogorsk.Discussion and conclusions. By the implementation of theoretical principles, mathematical models and recommendations developed in the course of the research, the authors show the effect of implementation and the possibility to obtain new scientific results. Moreover, the authors demonstrate the formation of an additional volume of traffic by 178 thousand passengers a year, an increase in the speed of communication by 7 km per hour, a decrease in the cost of transporting one passenger by 7% and an increase in reliability by 1.14.Financial transparency: the authors have no financial interest in the presented materials or methods. There is no conflict of interest.

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Islam, Md Mazharul, Majed Alharthi et Md Mahmudul Alam. « The Impacts of Climate Change on Road Traffic Accidents in Saudi Arabia ». Climate 7, n^o 9 (30 août 2019) : 103. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/cli7090103.

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The potential costs of road traffic accidents (RTAs) to society are immense. Yet, no study has attempted to examine the impact of climate change on RTAs in Saudi Arabia, though RTA-leading deaths are very high, and the occurrence of climatic events is very frequent. Therefore, this study aims to assess the impact of climate change on RTAs in Saudi Arabia and to recommend some climate change mitigation and adaptation policies to make roads safe for all. This study employed annual data from 13 regions of Saudi Arabia, from 2003 to 2013. The data were analyzed on the basis of panel regression models—fixed effect, random effect, and the pooled ordinary least square. The findings show that temperature, rainfall, sandstorms, and number of vehicles were statistically and significantly responsible for RTAs in Saudi Arabia in the study period. This study also found that RTAs both inside and outside cities significantly caused injuries, but only RTAs inside cities significantly caused death. Furthermore, the death from RTAs injuries was found to be statistically significant only for motor vehicle accidents. The findings will assist policymakers in taking the right courses of action to mitigate the negative impacts of climate change through understanding climate influence on RTAs.

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Thèses sur le sujet "Traffic accidents Costs Mathematical models"

Lierkamp, Darren. « Simulating the effects of following distance on a high-flow freeway ». Full text available online (restricted access), 2003. http://images.lib.monash.edu.au/ts/theses/Lierkamp.pdf.

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"CP830 Research Project and Thesis 2". Includes bibliographical references (p. 80-93) Electronic reproduction.[S.l. :s.n.],2003.Electronic data.Mode of access: World Wide Web.System requirements: Adobe Acrobat reader software for PDF files.Access restricted to institutions with a subscription.

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Sze, Nang-ngai, et 施能藝. « Quantitative analyses for the evaluation of traffic safety and operations ». Thesis, The University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong), 2007. http://hub.hku.hk/bib/B39707398.

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Zhou, Dingshan Sam. « An integrated traffic incident detection model / ». Full text (PDF) from UMI/Dissertation Abstracts International, 2000. http://wwwlib.umi.com/cr/utexas/fullcit?p9992952.

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Brizendine, Laora Dauberman. « Low probability-high consequence considerations in a multiobjective approach to risk management ». Thesis, This resource online, 1994. http://scholar.lib.vt.edu/theses/available/etd-07112009-040353/.

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Lloyd, Evan Robert. « A model for the economic analysis of road projects in an urban network with interrelated incremental traffic assignment method ». University of Western Australia. Economics Discipline Group, 2005. http://theses.library.uwa.edu.au/adt-WU2005.0083.

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[Truncated abstract] In an urban network, any change to the capacity of a road or an intersection will generally result in some traffic changing its route. In addition the presence of intersections creates the need for frequent stops. These stops increase the fuel consumption by anywhere between thirty to fifty percent as evidenced by published standardised vehicle fuel consumption figures for urban and for country driving. Other components of vehicle operating costs such as tyre and brake wear and time costs will also be increased by varying amounts. Yet almost all methods in use for economic evaluation of urban road projects use open road vehicle operating costs (sometimes factored to represent an average allowance for stopping at intersections) for one year or sometimes two years in the analysis period and then make assumptions about how the year by year road user benefits may change throughout the period in order to complete the analysis. This thesis will describe a system for estimating road user costs in an urban network that calculates intersection effects separately and then adds these effects to the travel costs of moving between intersections. Daily traffic estimates are used with a distribution of the flow rate throughout the twenty-four hours giving variable speed of travel according to the level of congestion at different times of the day. For each link, estimates of traffic flow at two points in time are used to estimate the year-by-year traffic flow throughout the analysis period by linear interpolation or extrapolation. The annual road user costs are then calculated from these estimates. Annual road user benefits are obtained by subtracting the annual road user costs for a modified network from the annual road user costs for an unmodified network. The change in the road network maintenance costs are estimated by applying an annual per lane maintenance cost to the change in lane-kilometres of road in the two networks. The Benefit Cost Ratio is calculated for three discount rates. An estimate of the likely range of error in the Benefit Cost Ratio is also calculated

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Logman, Haitham Hamad Saad. « Modeling the incident detection performance of integrated highway traffic sensing systems ». Thesis, 2003. http://hdl.handle.net/2152/2067.

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Ma, Jianming 1972. « Bayesian multivariate poisson-lognormal regression for crash prediction on rural two-lane highways ». 2006. http://hdl.handle.net/2152/13068.

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Livres sur le sujet "Traffic accidents Costs Mathematical models"

Authority, New Zealand Land Transport Safety. Safety directions : Predicting and costing road safety outcomes. Wellington, N.Z : Land Transport Safety Authority, 2000.

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New Zealand. Land Transport Safety Authority. Safety directions : Estimating effects of interventions on road safety outcomes to 2010. Wellington, N.Z : Land Transport Safety Authority, 2000.

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Sylvain, Lassarre, dir. Structural road accident models : The international DRAG family. New York : Pergamon, 2000.

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Hummer, Joseph E. Operational capacity of three-lane cross-sections. Raleigh, NC : Center for Transportation Engineering Studies, Dept. of Civil Engineering, North Carolina State University, 2000.

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Fricke, Lynn B. Traffic accident reconstruction. Evanston, Ill : Northwestern University, Traffic Institute, 1990.

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Rivers, R. W. Speed analysis for traffic accident investigation. 2^e éd. Jacksonville, Fla : Institute of Police Technology and Management, University of North Florida, 1997.

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Roine, Matti. Accident risks of car drivers in wintertime traffic. Espoo [Finland] : Technical Research Centre of Finland, 1999.

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Cooper, Gary W. Work, energy, and speed from damage in traffic accidents : Topic 870 of The traffic-accident investigation manual. Evanston, Ill. (P.O. Box 1409, Evanston 60204) : Northwestern University Traffic Institute, 1989.

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Bonnett, George M. Anatomy of the collision : Energy, momentum, restitution and the reconstructionist. 2^e éd. Jacksonville, Fla : Institute of Police Technology and Management, University of North Florida, 2006.

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Baker, J. Stannard. Speed estimates for vehicles that fall, flip, or vault : Topic 866 of the Traffic-accident investigation manual. Evanston, Ill. (P.O. Box 1409, Evanston 60204) : Northwestern University Traffic Institute, 1989.

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Actes de conférences sur le sujet "Traffic accidents Costs Mathematical models"

Wang, Yanlei, Shuang Xu et Xiang Liu. « Risk Analysis of Freight Train Collisions in the United States, 2000 to 2014 ». Dans 2016 Joint Rail Conference. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/jrc2016-5738.

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Train accidents damage infrastructure and rolling stock, disrupt operations, and may result in casualties and environmental damage. While the majority of previous studies focused on the safety risks associated with train derailments or highway-rail grade crossing collisions, much less work has been undertaken to evaluate train collision risk. This paper develops a statistical risk analysis methodology for freight-train collisions in the United States between 2000 and 2014. Negative binomial regression models are developed to estimate the frequency of freight-train collisions as a function of year and traffic volume by accident cause. Train collision severity, measured by the average number of railcars derailed, varied with accident cause. Train collision risk, defined as the product of collision frequency and severity, is predicted for 2015 to 2017, based on the 2000 to 2014 safety trend. The statistical procedures developed in this paper can be adapted to various other types of consequences, such as damage costs or casualties. Ultimately, this paper and its sequent studies aim to provide the railroad industry with data analytic tools to discover useful information from historical accidents so as to make risk-informed safety decisions.

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