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1
Pope, Kenneth James. « Time series analysis ». Thesis, University of Cambridge, 1993. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.318445.
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Yin, Jiang Ling. « Financial time series analysis ». Thesis, University of Macau, 2011. http://umaclib3.umac.mo/record=b2492929.
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Gore, Christopher Mark. « A time series classifier ». Diss., Rolla, Mo. : Missouri University of Science and Technology, 2008. http://scholarsmine.mst.edu/thesis/pdf/Gore_09007dcc804e6461.pdf.
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Thesis (M.S.)--Missouri University of Science and Technology, 2008.Vita. The entire thesis text is included in file. Title from title screen of thesis/dissertation PDF file (viewed April 29, 2008) Includes bibliographical references (p. 53-55).
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Lam, Vai Iam. « Time domain approach in time series analysis ». Thesis, University of Macau, 2000. http://umaclib3.umac.mo/record=b1446633.
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Malan, Karien. « Stationary multivariate time series analysis ». Pretoria : [s.n.], 2008. http://upetd.up.ac.za/thesis/available/etd-06132008-173800.
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Huang, Naijing. « Essays in time series analysis ». Thesis, Boston College, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/2345/bc-ir:104627.
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Thesis advisor: Zhijie XiaoI have three chapters in my dissertation. The first chapter is about the estimation and inference for DSGE model; the second chapter is about testing financial contagion among stock markets, and in the last chapter, I propose a new econometrics method to forecast inflation interval. This first chapter studies proper inference and asymptotically accurate structural break tests for parameters in Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models in a maximum likelihood framework. Two empirically relevant issues may invalidate the conventional inference procedures and structural break tests for parameters in DSGE models: (i) weak identification and (ii) moderate parameter instability. DSGE literatures focus on dealing with weak identification issue, but ignore the impact of moderate parameter instability. This paper contributes to the literature via considering the joint impact of two issues in DSGE framework. The main results are: in a weakly identified DSGE model, (i) moderate instability from weakly identified parameters would not affect the validity of standard inference procedures or structural break tests; (ii) however, if strongly identified parameters are featured with moderate time-variation, the asymptotic distributions of test statistics would deviate from standard ones and would no longer be nuisance parameter free, which renders standard inference procedures and structural break tests invalid and provides practitioners misleading inference results; (iii) as long as I concentrate out strongly identified parameters, the instability impact of them would disappear as the sample size goes to infinity, which recovers the power of conventional inference procedure and structural break tests for weakly identified parameters. To illustrate my results, I simulate and estimate a modified version of the Hansen (1985) Real Business Cycle model and find that my theoretical results provide reasonable guidance for finite sample inference of the parameters in the model. I show that confidence intervals that incorporate weak identification and moderate parameter instability reduce the biases of confidence intervals that ignore those effects. While I focus on DSGE models in this paper, all of my theoretical results could be applied to any linear dynamic models or nonlinear GMM models. The second chapter, regarding the asymmetric and leptokurtic behavior of financial data, we propose a new contagion test in the quantile regression framework that is robust to model misspecification. Unlike conventional correlation-based tests, the proposed quantile contagion test allows us to investigate the stock market contagion at various quantiles, not only at the mean. We show that the quantile contagion test can detect a contagion effect that is possibly ignored by correlation-based tests. A wide range of simulation studies show that the proposed test is superior to the correlation-based tests in terms of size and power. We compare our test with correlation-based tests using three real data sets: the 1994 Tequila crisis, the 1997 Asia crisis, and the 2001 Argentina crisis. Empirical results show substantial differences between two types of tests. In the third chapter, I use Quantile Bayesian Approach-- to do the interval forecast for inflation in the semi-parametric framework. This new method introduces Bayesian solution to the quantile framework for two reasons: 1. It enables us to get more efficient quantile estimates when the informative prior is used (He and Yang (2012)); 2. We use Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm to generate samples of the posterior distribution for unknown parameters and take the mean or mode as the estimates. This MCMC estimator takes advantage of numerical integration over the standard numerical differentiation based optimization, especially when the likelihood function is complicated and multi-modal. Simulation results find better interval forecasting performance of Quantile Bayesian Approach than commonly used parametric approach
Thesis (PhD) — Boston College, 2015
Submitted to: Boston College. Graduate School of Arts and Sciences
Discipline: Economics
7
Alagon, J. « Discriminant analysis for time series ». Thesis, University of Oxford, 1986. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.375222.
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Warnes, Alexis. « Diagnostics in time series analysis ». Thesis, Durham University, 1994. http://etheses.dur.ac.uk/5159/.
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The portmanteau diagnostic test for goodness of model fit is studied. It is found that the true variances of the estimated residual autocorrelation function are potentially deflated considerably below their asymptotic level, and exhibit high correlations with each other. This suggests a new portmanteau test, ignoring the first p + q residual autocorrelation terms and hence approximating the asymptotic chi-squared distribution more closely. Simulations show that this alternative portmanteau test produces greater accuracy in its estimated significance levels, especially in small samples. Theory and discussions follow, pertaining to both the Dynamic Linear Model and the Bayesian method of forecasting. The concept of long-term equivalence is defined. The difficulties with the discounting approach in the DLM are then illustrated through an example, before deriving equations for the step-ahead forecast distribution which could, instead, be used to estimate the evolution variance matrix W(_t). Non-uniqueness of W in the constant time series DLM is the principal drawback with this idea; however, it is proven that in any class of long-term equivalent models only p degrees of freedom can be fixed in W, leading to a potentially diagonal form for this matrix. The bias in the k(^th) step-ahead forecast error produced by any TSDLM variance (mis)specification is calculated. This yields the variances and covariances of the forecast error distribution; given sample estimates of these, it proves possible to solve equations arising from these calculations both for V and p elements of W. Simulations, and a "head-to-head" comparison, for the frequently-applied steady model illustrate the accuracy of the predictive calculations, both in the convergence properties of the sample (co)variances, and the estimates Ṽ and Ŵ. The method is then applied to a 2-dimensional constant TSDLM. Further simulations illustrate the success of the approach in producing accurate on-line estimates for the true variance specifications within this widely-used model.
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Chan, Hon Tsang. « Discriminant analysis of time series ». Thesis, University of Newcastle Upon Tyne, 1991. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.315614.
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Fulcher, Benjamin D. « Highly comparative time-series analysis ». Thesis, University of Oxford, 2012. http://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:642b65cf-4686-4709-9f9d-135e73cfe12e.
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In this thesis, a highly comparative framework for time-series analysis is developed. The approach draws on large, interdisciplinary collections of over 9000 time-series analysis methods, or operations, and over 30 000 time series, which we have assembled. Statistical learning methods were used to analyze structure in the set of operations applied to the time series, allowing us to relate different types of scientific methods to one another, and to investigate redundancy across them. An analogous process applied to the data allowed different types of time series to be linked based on their properties, and in particular to connect time series generated by theoretical models with those measured from relevant real-world systems. In the remainder of the thesis, methods for addressing specific problems in time-series analysis are presented that use our diverse collection of operations to represent time series in terms of their measured properties. The broad utility of this highly comparative approach is demonstrated using various case studies, including the discrimination of pathological heart beat series, classification of Parkinsonian phonemes, estimation of the scaling exponent of self-affine time series, prediction of cord pH from fetal heart rates recorded during labor, and the assignment of emotional content to speech recordings. Our methods are also applied to labeled datasets of short time-series patterns studied in temporal data mining, where our feature-based approach exhibits benefits over conventional time-domain classifiers. Lastly, a feature-based dimensionality reduction framework is developed that links dependencies measured between operations to the number of free parameters in a time-series model that could be used to generate a time-series dataset.
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Hwang, Peggy May T. « Factor analysis of time series / ». The Ohio State University, 1997. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1487944660933305.
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Ishida, Isao. « Essays on financial time series / ». Diss., Connect to a 24 p. preview or request complete full text in PDF format. Access restricted to UC campuses, 2004. http://wwwlib.umi.com/cr/ucsd/fullcit?p3153696.
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Michel, Jonathan R. « Essays in Nonlinear Time Series Analysis ». The Ohio State University, 2019. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1555001297904158.
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Schwill, Stephan. « Entropy analysis of financial time series ». Thesis, University of Manchester, 2016. https://www.research.manchester.ac.uk/portal/en/theses/entropy-analysis-of-financial-time-series(7e0c84fe-5d0b-41bc-96c6-5e41ffa5b8fe).html.
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This thesis applies entropy as a model independent measure to address research questions concerning the dynamics of various financial time series. The thesis consists of three main studies as presented in chapters 3, 4 and 5. Chapters 3 and 4 apply an entropy measure to conduct a bivariate analysis of drawdowns and drawups in foreign exchange rates. Chapter 5 investigates the dynamics of investment strategies of hedge funds using entropy of realised volatility in a conditioning model. In all three studies, methods from information theory are applied in novel ways to financial time series. As Information Theory and its central concept of entropy are not widely used in the economic sciences, a methodology chapter was therefore included in chapter 2 that gives an overview on the theoretical background and statistical features of the entropy measures used in the three main studies. In the first two studies the focus is on mutual information and transfer entropy. Both measures are used to identify dependencies between two exchange rates. The chosen measures generalise, in a well defined manner, correlation and Granger causality. A different entropy measure, the approximate entropy, is used in the third study to analyse the serial structure of S&P realised volatility. The study of drawdowns and drawups has so far been concentrated on their uni- variate characteristics. Encoding the drawdown information of a time series into a time series of discrete values, Chapter 3 uses entropy measures to analyse the correlation and cross correlations of drawdowns and drawups. The method to encode the drawdown information is explained and applied to daily and hourly EUR/USD and GBP/USD exchange rates from 2001 to 2012. For the daily series, we find evidence of dependence among the largest draws (i.e. 5% and 95% quantiles), but it is not as strong as the correlation between the daily returns of the same pair of FX rates. There is also dependence between lead/lagged values of these draws. Similar and stronger findings were found among the hourly data. We further use transfer entropy to examine the spill over and lead-lag information flow between drawup/drawdown of the two exchange rates. Such information flow is indeed detectable in both daily and hourly data. The amount of information transferred is considerably higher for the hourly than the daily data. Both daily and hourly series show clear evidence of information flowing from EUR/USD to GBP/USD and, slightly stronger, in the reverse direction. Robustness tests, using effective transfer entropy, show that the information measured is not due to noise. Chapter 4 uses state space models of volatility to investigate volatility spill overs between exchange rates. Our use of entropy related measures in the investigation of dependencies of two state space series is novel. A set of five daily exchange rates from emerging and developed economies against the dollar over the period 1999 to 2012 is used. We find that among the currency pairs, the co-movement of EUR/USD and CHF/USD volatility states show the strongest observed relationship. With the use of transfer entropy, we find evidence for information flows between the volatility state series of AUD, CAD and BRL.Chapter 5 uses the entropy of S&P realised volatility in detecting changes of volatility regime in order to re-examine the theme of market volatility timing of hedge funds. A one-factor model is used, conditioned on information about the entropy of market volatility, to measure the dynamic of hedge funds equity exposure. On a cross section of around 2500 hedge funds with a focus on the US equity markets we find that, over the period from 2000 to 2014, hedge funds adjust their exposure dynamically in response to changes in volatility regime. This adds to the literature on the volatility timing behaviour of hedge fund manager, but using entropy as a model independent measure of volatility regime. Finally, chapter 6 summarises and concludes with some suggestions for future research.
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Rivera, Pablo Marshall. « Analysis of a cross-section of time series using structural time series models ». Thesis, London School of Economics and Political Science (University of London), 1990. http://etheses.lse.ac.uk/13/.
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This study deals with multivariate structural time series models, and in particular, with the analysis and modelling of cross-sections of time series. In this context, no cause and effect relationships are assumed between the time series, although they are subject to the same overall environment. The main motivations in the analysis of cross-sections of time series are (i) the gains in efficiency in the estimation of the irregular, trend and seasonal components; and (ii) the analysis of models with common effects. The study contains essentially two parts. The first one considers models with a general specification for the correlation of the irregular, trend and seasonal components across the time series. Four structural time series models are presented, and the estimation of the components of the time series, as well as the estimation of the parameters which define this components, is discussed. The second part of the study deals with dynamic error components models where the irregular, trend and seasonal components are generated by common, as well as individual, effects. The extension to models for multivariate observations of cross-sections is also considered. Several applications of the methods studied are presented. Particularly relevant is an econometric study of the demand for energy in the U. K.
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Reiss, Joshua D. « The analysis of chaotic time series ». Diss., Full text available online (restricted access), 2001. http://images.lib.monash.edu.au/ts/theses/reiss.pdf.
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Healey, J. J. « Qualitative analysis of experimental time series ». Thesis, University of Oxford, 1991. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.302891.
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謝永然 et Wing-yin Tse. « Time series analysis in inventory management ». Thesis, The University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong), 1993. http://hub.hku.hk/bib/B31977510.
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Yiu, Fu-keung, et 饒富強. « Time series analysis of financial index ». Thesis, The University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong), 1996. http://hub.hku.hk/bib/B31267804.
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Dunne, Peter Gerard. « Essays in financial time-series analysis ». Thesis, Queen's University Belfast, 1996. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.337690.
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Brunsdon, T. M. « Time series analysis of compositional data ». Thesis, University of Southampton, 1987. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.378257.
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Correia, Maria Inês Costa. « Cluster analysis of financial time series ». Master's thesis, Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão, 2020. http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/21016.
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Mestrado em Mathematical FinanceEsta dissertação aplica o método da Signature como medida de similaridade entre dois objetos de séries temporais usando as propriedades de ordem 2 da Signature e aplicando-as a um método de Clustering Asimétrico. O método é comparado com uma abordagem de Clustering mais tradicional, onde a similaridade é medida usando Dynamic Time Warping, desenvolvido para trabalhar com séries temporais. O intuito é considerar a abordagem tradicional como benchmark e compará-la ao método da Signature através do tempo de computação, desempenho e algumas aplicações. Estes métodos são aplicados num conjunto de dados de séries temporais financeiras de Fundos Mútuos do Luxemburgo. Após a revisão da literatura, apresentamos o método Dynamic Time Warping e o método da Signature. Prossegue-se com a explicação das abordagens de Clustering Tradicional, nomeadamente k-Means, e Clustering Espectral Assimétrico, nomeadamente k-Axes, desenvolvido por Atev (2011). O último capítulo é dedicado à Investigação Prática onde os métodos anteriores são aplicados ao conjunto de dados. Os resultados confirmam que o método da Signature têm efectivamente potencial para Machine Learning e previsão, como sugerido por Levin, Lyons and Ni (2013).
This thesis applies the Signature method as a measurement of similarities between two time-series objects, using the Signature properties of order 2, and its application to Asymmetric Spectral Clustering. The method is compared with a more Traditional Clustering approach where similarities are measured using Dynamic Time Warping, developed to work with time-series data. The intention for this is to consider the traditional approach as a benchmark and compare it to the Signature method through computation times, performance, and applications. These methods are applied to a financial time series data set of Mutual Exchange Funds from Luxembourg. After the literature review, we introduce the Dynamic Time Warping method and the Signature method. We continue with the explanation of Traditional Clustering approaches, namely k-Means, and Asymmetric Clustering techniques, namely the k-Axes algorithm, developed by Atev (2011). The last chapter is dedicated to Practical Research where the previous methods are applied to the data set. Results confirm that the Signature method has indeed potential for machine learning and prediction, as suggested by Levin, Lyons, and Ni (2013).
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
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Åkerlund, Agnes. « Time-Series Analysis of Pulp Prices ». Thesis, Mittuniversitetet, Institutionen för informationssystem och –teknologi, 2020. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:miun:diva-39726.
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The pulp and paper industry has a significant role in Europe’s economy and society, and its significance is still growing. The pulp market and the customers’ requirements are highly affected by the pulp market prices and the requested kind of pulp, i.e., Elementary Chlorine Free (ECF) or Total Chlorine Free (TCF). There is a need to predict different market aspects, where the market price is one, to gain a better understanding of a business situation. Understanding market dynamics can support organizations to optimize their processes and production. Forecasting future pulp prices has not recently been done, but it would help businesses to make decisions that are more informed about where to sell their product. The studies existing about the pulp industry and forecast of market prices were completed over 20 years ago, and the market has changed since then in terms of, e.g., demand and production volume. There is a research gap within the pulp industry from a market price perspective. The pulp market is similar to, e.g., the energy industry in some aspects, and time-series analysis has been used to forecast electricity prices to support decision making by electricity producers and retailers. Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) is one time-series analysis method that is used when data are collected with a constant frequency and when the average is not constant. Holt-Winters model is a well-known and simple time-series analysis. In this thesis, time-series analysis is used to predict the weekly market price for pulp the three upcoming months, with the research question “With what accuracy can time-series analysis be used to forecast the European PIX price on pulp on a week-ahead basis?”. The research method in this thesis is a case study where data are collected through the data collection method documents. First, articles are studied to gain understanding within the problem area leading to the use of the artefact time-series analyses and a case study. Then, historical data are collected from the organization FOEX Fastmarkets, where a new market price of pulp has been released every Tuesday since September 1996. The dataset has a total of 1200 data points. After data cleaning, it is merged to 1196 data points that are used for the analysis. To evaluate the results from the time-series analysis models ARIMA and Holt-Winter, Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) are used. The software RStudio is used for programming. The results shows that the ARIMA model provides the most accurate results. The mean value for MAE is 16,59 for ARIMA and 44,61 for Holt-Winters. The mean value for MAPE is 1,99% for ARIMA and 5,37% for Holt-Winters.
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Khalfaoui, Rabeh. « Wavelet analysis of financial time series ». Thesis, Aix-Marseille, 2012. http://www.theses.fr/2012AIXM1083.
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Cette thèse traite la contribution des méthodes d'ondelettes sur la modélisation des séries temporelles économiques et financières et se compose de deux parties: une partie univariée et une partie multivariée. Dans la première partie (chapitres 2 et 3), nous adoptons le cas univarié. Premièrement, nous examinons la classe des processus longue mémoire non-stationnaires. Une étude de simulation a été effectuée afin de comparer la performance de certaines méthodes d'estimation semi-paramétrique du paramètre d'intégration fractionnaire. Nous examinons aussi la mémoire longue dans la volatilité en utilisant des modèles FIGARCH pour les données de l'énergie. Les résultats montrent que la méthode d'estimation Exact Local Whittle de Shimotsu et Phillips [2005] est la meilleure méthode de détection de longue mémoire et la volatilité du pétrole exhibe une forte évidence de phénomène de mémoire longue. Ensuite, nous analysons le risque de marché des séries de rendements univariées de marchés boursier, qui est mesurée par le risque systématique (bêta) à différents horizons temporels. Les résultats montrent que le Bêta n'est pas stable, en raison de multi-trading stratégies des investisseurs. Les résultats basés sur l'analyse montrent que le risque mesuré par la VaR est plus concentrée aux plus hautes fréquences. La deuxième partie (chapitres 4 et 5) traite l'estimation de la variance et la corrélation conditionnelle des séries temporelles multivariées. Nous considérons deux classes de séries temporelles: les séries temporelles stationnaires (rendements) et les séries temporelles non-stationnaires (séries en niveaux)This thesis deals with the contribution of wavelet methods on modeling economic and financial time series and consists of two parts: the univariate time series and multivariate time series. In the first part (chapters 2 and 3), we adopt univariate case. First, we examine the class of non-stationary long memory processes. A simulation study is carried out in order to compare the performance of some semi-parametric estimation methods for fractional differencing parameter. We also examine the long memory in volatility using FIGARCH models to model energy data. Results show that the Exact local Whittle estimation method of Shimotsu and Phillips [2005] is the better one and the oil volatility exhibit strong evidence of long memory. Next, we analyze the market risk of univariate stock market returns which is measured by systematic risk (beta) at different time horizons. Results show that beta is not stable, due to multi-trading strategies of investors. Results based on VaR analysis show that risk is more concentrated at higher frequency. The second part (chapters 4 and 5) deals with estimation of the conditional variance and correlation of multivariate time series. We consider two classes of time series: the stationary time series (returns) and the non-stationary time series (levels). We develop a novel approach, which combines wavelet multi-resolution analysis and multivariate GARCH models, i.e. the wavelet-based multivariate GARCH approach. However, to evaluate the volatility forecasts we compare the performance of several multivariate models using some criteria, such as loss functions, VaR estimation and hedging strategies
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Yiu, Fu-keung. « Time series analysis of financial index / ». Hong Kong : University of Hong Kong, 1996. http://sunzi.lib.hku.hk/hkuto/record.jsp?B18003047.
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Guthrey, Delparde Raleigh. « Time series analysis of ozone data ». CSUSB ScholarWorks, 1998. https://scholarworks.lib.csusb.edu/etd-project/1788.
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ZANETTI, CHINI EMILIO. « Essays in nonlinear time series analysis ». Doctoral thesis, Università degli Studi di Roma "Tor Vergata", 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/2108/203343.
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This paper introduces a variant of the smooth transition autoregression (STAR).Theproposedmodelisabletoparametrizetheasymmetryinthetails of the transition equation by using a particular generalization of the logistic function. The null hypothesis of symmetric adjustment toward a new regime is tested by building two different LM-type tests. The first one maintains the original parametrization, while the second one is based on a third-order expanded auxiliary regression. Three diagnostic tests for no error autocorrelation, no additive asymmetry and parameter constancy are also discussed. The empirical size and power of the new symmetry as well as diagnostic tests are investigated by an extensive Monte Carlo experiment. An empirical application of the so generalized STAR (GSTAR) model to four economic time series reveals that the asymmetry in the transition between two regimes is a feature to be considered for economic analysi
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Sorice, Domenico <1995>. « Random forests in time series analysis ». Master's Degree Thesis, Università Ca' Foscari Venezia, 2020. http://hdl.handle.net/10579/17482.
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Machine learning algorithms are becoming more relevant in many fields from neuroscience to biostatistics, due to their adaptability and the possibility to learn from the data. In recent years, those techniques became popular in economics and found different applications in policymaking, financial forecasting, and portfolio optimization. The aim of this dissertation is two-fold. First, I will provide a review of the classification and Regression Tree and Random Forest methods proposed by [Breiman, 1984], [Breiman, 2001], then I study the effectiveness of those algorithms in time series analysis.
I review the CART model and the Random Forest, which is an ensemble machine learning algorithm, based on the CART, using a variety of applications to test the performance of the algorithms. Second, I will implement an application on financial data: I will use the Random Forest algorithm to estimate a factor model based on macroeconomic variables with the aim of verifying if the Random Forest is able to capture part of the non-linear relationship between the factor considered and the index return.
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Morrill, Jeffrey P., et Jonathan Delatizky. « REAL-TIME RECOGNITION OF TIME-SERIES PATTERNS ». International Foundation for Telemetering, 1993. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/608854.
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International Telemetering Conference Proceedings / October 25-28, 1993 / Riviera Hotel and Convention Center, Las Vegas, NevadaThis paper describes a real-time implementation of the pattern recognition technology originally developed by BBN [Delatizky et al] for post-processing of time-sampled telemetry data. This makes it possible to monitor a data stream for a characteristic shape, such as an arrhythmic heartbeat or a step-response whose overshoot is unacceptably large. Once programmed to recognize patterns of interest, it generates a symbolic description of a time-series signal in intuitive, object-oriented terms. The basic technique is to decompose the signal into a hierarchy of simpler components using rules of grammar, analogous to the process of decomposing a sentence into phrases and words. This paper describes the basic technique used for pattern recognition of time-series signals and the problems that must be solved to apply the techniques in real time. We present experimental results for an unoptimized prototype demonstrating that 4000 samples per second can be handled easily on conventional hardware.
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Hossain, Md Jobayer. « Analysis of nonstationary time series with time varying frequencies ». Ann Arbor, Mich. : ProQuest, 2006. http://gateway.proquest.com/openurl?url_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:dissertation&res_dat=xri:pqdiss&rft_dat=xri:pqdiss:3220410.
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Thesis (Ph.D. in Statistical Science)--S.M.U.Title from PDF title page (viewed July 6, 2007). Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, Volume: 67-05, Section: B, page: 2641. Advisers: Wayne A. Woodward; Henry L. Gray. Includes bibliographical references.
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Mazel, David S. « Fractal modeling of time-series data ». Diss., Georgia Institute of Technology, 1991. http://hdl.handle.net/1853/13916.
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Cheung, Chung-pak, et 張松柏. « Multivariate time series analysis on airport transportation ». Thesis, The University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong), 1991. http://hub.hku.hk/bib/B31976499.
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Whitcher, Brandon. « Assessing nonstationary time series using wavelets / ». Thesis, Connect to this title online ; UW restricted, 1998. http://hdl.handle.net/1773/8957.
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Koller, Stefan. « Applications of Time Series Analysis for Finance ». St. Gallen, 2007. http://www.biblio.unisg.ch/org/biblio/edoc.nsf/wwwDisplayIdentifier/05604814001/$FILE/05604814001.pdf.
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Mui, Chi Seong. « Frequency domain approach to time series analysis ». Thesis, University of Macau, 2000. http://umaclib3.umac.mo/record=b1446676.
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Purutcuoglu, Vilda. « Unit Root Problems In Time Series Analysis ». Master's thesis, METU, 2004. http://etd.lib.metu.edu.tr/upload/2/12604701/index.pdf.
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In time series models, autoregressive processes are one of the most popular stochastic processes, which are stationary under certain conditions. In this study we consider nonstationary autoregressive models of order one, which have iid random errors. One of the important nonstationary time series models is the unit root process in AR (1), which simply implies that a shock to the system has permanent effect through time. Therefore, testing unit root is a very important problem.
However, under nonstationarity, any estimator of the autoregressive coefficient does not have a known exact distribution and the usual t &ndashstatistic is not accurate even if the sample size is very large. Hence,Wiener process is invoked to obtain the asymptotic distribution of the LSE under normality. The first four moments of under normality have been worked out for large n. In 1998, Tiku and Wong proposed the new test statistics and whose type I error and power values are calculated by using three &ndash
moment chi &ndash
square or four &ndash
moment F approximations. The test statistics are based on the modified maximum likelihood estimators and the least square estimators, respectively. They evaluated the type I errors and the power of these tests for a family of symmetric distributions (scaled Student&rsquo
s t). In this thesis, we have extended this work to skewed distributions, namely, gamma and generalized logistic.
37
Glover, James N. « Time series analysis near a fixed point ». Thesis, University of Cambridge, 1993. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.295353.
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Al-Wasel, Ibrahim A. « Spectral analysis for replicated biomedical time series ». Thesis, Lancaster University, 1993. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.412585.
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Manrique, Garcia Aurora. « Econometric analysis of limited dependent time series ». Thesis, University of Oxford, 1997. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.389797.
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Clarke, Liam. « Nonlinear time series analysis of data streams ». Thesis, University of Oxford, 2003. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.401147.
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Prendergast, Tim. « Interrupted Time Series Analysis Techniques in Pharmacovigilance ». Thèse, Université d'Ottawa / University of Ottawa, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/10393/30291.
Texte intégralRésumé :
This thesis considers an approach to evaluate the effectiveness of risk communications for prescription drugs by performing interrupted time series analysis of prescription drug volumes prior to and after the risk communication date.
The paper presents methods for detecting change in the presence of autocorrelation and techniques to reduce bias in estimation. Statistical results and data plots are presented for 63 data series. Size and power of the statistical techniques are considered, and a correspondence analysis between these statistical techniques and a small group of physicians is performed.
The methods considered in this thesis correspond weakly with physician sentiment, and exhibit inflated type I errors in the presence of significant autocorrelation.
42
Nguyen, Minh Hoai. « Segment-based SVMs for Time Series Analysis ». Research Showcase @ CMU, 2012. http://repository.cmu.edu/dissertations/202.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Enabling computers to understand human and animal behavior has the potential to revolutionize many areas that benefit society such as clinical diagnosis, human-computer interaction, and social robotics. Critical to the understanding of human and animal behavior, and any temporally-varying phenomenon in general, is the capability to segment, classify, and cluster time series data. This thesis proposes segment-based Support Vector Machines (Seg-SVMs), a framework for supervised, weakly-supervised, and unsupervised time series analysis. Seg-SVMs outperform state-of-the-art approaches by combining three powerful ideas: energy-based structure prediction, bag-of-words representation, and maximum-margin learning. Energy-based structure prediction provides a principled mechanism for concurrent top-down recognition and bottom-up temporal localization. Bag-of-words representation provides segment-based features that tolerate misalignment errors and are computationally efficient. Maximum-margin learning, such as SVM and Structure Output SVM, has a convex learning formulation; it produces classifiers that are discriminative and less prone to over-fitting.
In this thesis, we show how Seg-SVMs outperform state-of-the-art approaches for segmenting, classifying, and clustering human and animal behavior in video and accelerometer data of varying complexity. We illustrate these benefits in the problems of facial event detection, sequence labeling of human actions, and temporal clustering of animal behavior. In addition, the Seg-SVMs framework naturally provides solutions to two novel problems: early detection of human actions and weakly-supervised discovery of discriminative events.
43
Moeanaddin, Rahim. « Aspects of non-linear time series analysis ». Thesis, University of Kent, 1989. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.328463.
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Popoola, Ademola Olayemi. « Fuzzy-wavelet method for time series analysis ». Thesis, University of Surrey, 2006. http://epubs.surrey.ac.uk/804949/.
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45
Mise, Emi. « Time series decompostion and business cycle analysis ». Thesis, University of Nottingham, 2001. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.247129.
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Hong, Seok Young. « Nonparametric methods in financial time series analysis ». Thesis, University of Cambridge, 2018. https://www.repository.cam.ac.uk/handle/1810/283218.
Texte intégralRésumé :
The fundamental objective of the analysis of financial time series is to unveil the random mechanism, i.e. the probability law, underlying financial data. The effort to identify the truth that governs the observations involves proposing and estimating reasonable statistical models that well explain the empirical features of data. This thesis develops some new nonparametric tools that can be exploited in this context; the efficacy and validity of their use are supported by computational advancements and surging availability of large/complex (`big') data sets. Chapter 1 investigates the conditional first moment properties of financial returns. We propose multivariate extensions of the popular Variance Ratio (VR) statistic, aiming to test linear predictability of returns and weak-form market efficiency. We construct asymptotic distribution theories for the statistics and scalar functions thereof under the null hypothesis of no predictability. The imposed assumptions are weaker than those widely adopted in the literature, and in our view more credible with regard to the underlying data generating process we expect for stock returns. It is also shown that the limit theories can be extended to the long horizon and large dimension cases, and also to allow for a time varying risk premium. Our methods are applied to CRSP weekly returns from 1962 to 2013; the joint tests of the multivariate hypothesis reject the null at the 1% level for all horizons considered. Chapter 2 is about nonparametric estimation of conditional moments. We propose a local constant type estimator that operates with an infinite number of conditioning variables; this enables a direct estimation of many objects of econometric interest that have dependence upon the infinite past. We show pointwise and uniform consistency of the estimator and establish its asymptotic nomality in various static and dynamic regressions context. The optimal rate of estimation turns out to be of logarithmic order, and the precise rate depends on the Lambert W function, the smoothness of the regression operator and the dependence of the data in a non-trivial way. The theories are applied to investigate the intertemporal risk-return relation for the aggregate stock market. We report an overall positive risk-return relation on the S&P 500 daily data from 1950-2017, and find evidence of strong time variation and counter-cyclical behaviour in risk aversion. Lastly, Chapter 3 concerns nonparametric volatility estimation with high frequency time series. While data observed at finer time scale than daily provide rich information, their distinctive empirical properties bring new challenges in their analysis. We propose a Fourier domain based estimator for multivariate ex-post volatility that is robust to two major hurdles in high frequency finance: asynchronicity in observations and the presence of microstructure noise. Asymptotic properties are derived under some mild conditions. Simulation studies show our method outperforms time domain estimators when two assets with different liquidity are traded asynchronously.
47
Hargreaves, Jessica. « Wavelet analysis of nonstationary circadian time series ». Thesis, University of York, 2018. http://etheses.whiterose.ac.uk/22670/.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Rhythmic data are ubiquitous in the life sciences, with biologists needing reliable statistical tools for the analysis of such data. When these signals display rhythmic yet nonstationary behaviour, common in many biological systems, the established methodologies are often misleading. Chapter 2 develops and tests a new method for clustering nonstationary rhythmic biological data. The method combines locally stationary wavelet time series modelling with functional principal components analysis and thus extracts time-scale patterns useful for identifying common characteristics. We demonstrate the advantages of our methodology over alternative approaches by means of a simulation study and for real circadian data applications. Motivated by three complementary applications in circadian biology, Chapter 3 develops new reliable statistical tests to identify whether a particular experimental treatment has caused a significant change in a rhythmic signal that displays nonstationary characteristics. As circadian behaviour is best understood in the spectral domain, we develop novel hypothesis testing procedures in the (wavelet) spectral domain, which facilitate the identification of three specific types of spectral difference. We demonstrate the advantages of our methodology over alternative approaches by means of a comprehensive simulation study and for real data applications, involving both plant and animal signals. Chapter 4 investigates the effect of industrial and agricultural pollutants on the plant circadian clock. We examine the impact of exposure to a comprehensive range of environmentally relevant pollutants by utilising the methodologies developed in Chapters 2 and 3. Our findings indicate that many of the tested chemicals have an effect on the plant circadian clock, most of which would have remained undetected by classical methods overlooking nonstationarity. The results of Chapter 4 demonstrate the additional insight gained by using the appropriate methodologies, as developed in Chapters 2 and 3, and also have important implications for understanding environmental ramifications associated with soil pollution.
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Miao, Robin. « Nonlinear time series analysis in financial applications ». Thesis, University of Bath, 2012. https://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.558857.
Texte intégralRésumé :
The purpose of this thesis is to examine the nonlinear relationships between financial (and economic) variables within the field of financial econometrics. The thesis comprises two reviews of literatures, one on nonlinear time series models andthe other one on term structure of interest rates, and four empirical essays on financialapplications using nonlinear modelling techniques. The first empirical essay compares different model specifications of a Markov switching CIR model on the term structure of UK interest rates. We find the least restricted model provides the best in-sample estimation results. Although models with restrictive specifications may provide slightly better out-of-sample forecasts in directional movements of the yields, the economic gains seem to be small. In the second essay, we jointly model the nominal and real term structure of the UK interest rates using a three-factor essentially affine no-arbitrage term structure model. The model-implied expected inflation rates are then used in the subsequent analysis on its nonlinear relationship with the FTSE 100 index return premiums, utilizing a smooth transition vector autoregressive model. We find the model implied expected inflation rates remain below the actual inflation rates after the independence of the Bank of England in 1997, and the recent sharp decline of the expected inflation rates may lend support to the standing ground of the central bank for keeping interest rates low. The nonlinearity test on the relationship between the FTSE 100 index return premiums and the expected inflation rates shows that there exists a nonlinear adjustment on the impact from lagged expected inflation rates to current return premiums. The third essay provides us additional insight into the nature of the aggregate stock market volatilities and its relationship to the expected returns, in a Markov switching model framework, using centuries-long aggregate stock market data from six countries (Australia, Canada, Sweden, Switzerland, UK and US). We find that the Markov switching model assuming both regime dependent mean and volatility with a 3-regime specification is capable to captures the extreme movements of the stock market which are short-lived. The volatility feedback effect that we studied on each of these six countries shows a positive sign on anticipating a high volatility regime of the current trading month. The investigation on the coherence in regimes over time for the six countries shows different results for different pairs of countries. In the last essay, we decompose the term premium of the North American CDX investment grade index into a permanent and a stationary component using a Markov switching unobserved component model. We explain the evolution of the two components in relating them to monetary policy and stock market variables. We establish that the inversion of the CDX index term premium is induced by sudden changes in the unobserved stationary component, which represents the evolution of the fundamentals underpinning the risk neutral probability of default in the economy. We find strong evidence that the unprecedented monetary policy response from the Fed during the crisis period was effective in reducing market uncertainty and helped to steepen the term structure of the CDX index, thereby mitigating systemic risk concerns. The impact of stock market volatility on flattening the term premium was substantially more robust in the crisis period. We also show that equity returns make a significant contribution to the CDX term premium over the entire sample period.
49
ZHANG, SHIQIAO. « THE ANALYSIS OF UNEQUALLY SPACED TIME SERIES ». University of Cincinnati / OhioLINK, 2007. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=ucin1172507478.
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Compton, Douglas Lyndon. « Time Series and Spectral Analysis in Asteroseismology ». Thesis, The University of Sydney, 2018. http://hdl.handle.net/2123/20071.
Texte intégralRésumé :
A major breakthrough in stellar astrophysics occurred a decade ago when a number of space photometry telescopes were launched and began operations. In particular, the NASA space telescope Kepler was constructed with the goal of finding Earth-like planets around other stars in our galaxy. The technique involved observing the same field of stars, searching for dips in the stellar light curves caused by transits of exoplanets. For four years, the Kepler mission observed almost 200,000 stars with a wide variety of spectral types and evolutionary states. The light curves are also ideal for asteroseismology, the study of stellar oscillations. Fitting the frequencies of these oscillations to stellar models returns accurate fundamental properties including mass, luminosity, radius, and age of the observed star. The goal of this thesis is to use a range of asteroseismic data analysis techniques to improve the understanding of the physical properties of various classes of oscillating stars. This thesis is split into four main chapters. Firstly, I follow the adiabatic frequency pattern of the most evolved solar-like oscillators and observe a departure to the well known asymptotic relation. Secondly, I compare Kepler data and stellar models of main-sequence solar-like oscillators to characterise the frequency discrepancy, known as the surface correction. Thirdly, I devise a technique to use the centroid of blended radial-quadrupole modes to accurately determine fundamental stellar parameters in F-type stars. Finally, I investigate a method to detect stellar companions by measuring the modulation of light arrival time using stable oscillation modes, and attempt to apply it to stars of different spectral types.