Littérature scientifique sur le sujet « Telephone in business – Spain »

Wireless telegraphy ranks as the third groundbreaking 19th-century contribution to modern telecommunications, after the electric telegraph and the telephone. Initially of little interest, it gained widespread acceptance and became a commercial communication system that was fiercely fought for by the world's major powers. One feature of radiotelegraphy is broadcasting¸ which has developed with great impetus among the economic powers. In Western Europe, state control over broadcasting predominated from the first regulation in the 1920s until the 1980s. This was the case in Spain, where the State imposed a system of concession for the construction and operation of the network of stations by public tender. Finally, the development of broadcasting was inferior to that of the major powers but superior to that of other Mediterranean nations, as indicated by the sixth position it occupied in a selected list of countries. This study is performed to analyze broadcasting penetration from a dual perspective of supply/demand and the economic and business angle, mainly from primary sources.

Mobile phones have changed consumer and company behaviour and today they constitute the most direct means of communication between them. Many groups are targeted through promotion campaigns using mobile phones. Children, who in the future will be the largest consumer of new technologies, are one of these groups. Given that current Spanish legislation does not clearly establish what company policy ought to be in relation to promotions aimed at children, self-regulation of the mobile telephone sector is imperative. Spain is already among the developed countries in which one out of every two children has a mobile phone. Firms should pay special attention to this target group. Firstly, because promotional campaigns aimed at children have their peculiarities and secondly because of the legal and ethical protection that children deserve. Company policy, in this sense, should include the drawing up of Codes of Conduct. This article begins by analysing the child segment as mobile phone consumers. It then highlights the legal and ethical problems of mobile campaigns aimed at children, and looks at some studies carried out by the European Commission and the Spanish government. Finally, this paper draws some conclusions about the measures companies should adopt and offers practical help for self-regulation of the mobile telephone sector in Spain and, if possible, in other countries (especially other European countries within the framework of the agreement signed by the leading European mobile operators in 2007 to develop self-regulatory codes by 2008). Moreover, future research needs to centre on whether these measures increase child protection.

This article aims to narrate the birth and evolution of the Integrated Services Digital Network (ISDN) in Spain with an essentially descriptive methodology, from an interdisciplinary perspective and from varied sources. The study aims to investigate the forms of the transition from a conceptual or engineering phase to the market in a standard of Internet access and, at the same time, in the different patterns of technological innovation and the factors that motivate them. It tries to verify if the own nature of the techniques, the degree of diffusion of the previous technologies, the technological level -digitalization- and the structure of market of the telecommunications — continued existence of the monopoly of the historical operator National Telephone Company of Spain — had a significant impact on the inequality of penetration with respect to other countries. The research authorizes to conclude that a very heterogeneous combination of factors caused that leading countries in the diffusion of a technology did not achieve that leading role in the diffusion of other technologies.

This paper outlines the practical implications of the use of the term English for Academic and Professional Purposes (EAPP), a position originally taken by Alcaraz (2000). The article proposes an agenda for EAPP within tertiary level education in Spain. Firstly, we propose a methodological and theoretical linguistic framework for our EAPP classes in our engineering and business degrees, which takes the form of Personalized Learning and Continuous Evaluation and links our ideas about the nature of language issues in EAPP with a rigorous theoretical framework based on Hallidayan Systemic Linguistics. Secondly, we describe a methodology for Academic English based on corpus linguistic techniques, which involves the building and processing of a corpus rapidly so as to extract lexico-grammatical information that has direct application in the classroom. Thirdly, we suggest that English for Professional Purposes consists of interpersonal activities such as being able to negotiate effectively; conduct interviews and surveys; listen and take notes during meetings and presentations; communicate effectively on the telephone as well as with video conferencing technology; carry out oral presentations etc. Finally, we conclude this paper outlining the specific skills that would be needed by a teacher of EAPP.

PurposeThe purpose of this study is to compare and validate firms’ internal and external stakeholder considerations in sustainable business practices across business settings. It aims to assess the validity and reliability of a stakeholder framework appearing in previous studies.Design/methodology/approachThe study uses a questionnaire survey and a cross-industry sample consisting of the largest firms in corporate Sweden. Multivariate analysis tests the stakeholder framework. Each of the 294 key informants was initially identified and contacted by telephone, generating a response rate of 36.5 per cent.FindingsThe tested stakeholder framework appears valid and reliable across countries to assess the internal stakeholders of focal firms, as well as their up- and downstream, market and societal stakeholders. This study provides additional empirical support to categorize firms’ stakeholder considerations in sustainable business practices.Research limitations/implicationsThis study validates previous findings in terms of Swedish firms’ considerations of internal and external stakeholders in sustainable business practices in relation to one similar country (Norway) and one different country (Spain). The study also shows how the three countries perceive the focal company and societal stakeholders differently.Practical implicationsThe tested framework sheds light on focal firms’ stakeholder considerations in sustainable business practices and elucidates the extent to which firms’ account for their internal and external stakeholders in sustainable business practices.Originality/valueThis study contributes to the development of valid and reliable stakeholder theory across contexts and through time. In particular, it contributes to the development of a valid and reliable framework to categorize firms’ stakeholder considerations in sustainable business practices.

E-learning has become a challenge for many universities worldwide, which during the pandemic had to switch overnight from offline to online learning and meet the expectations of students for whom this form of education was often alien. The aim of the paper is to present how students from two different countries, Spain and Poland, perceived e-learning during the pandemic, what factors, in their opinion, influenced their satisfaction with this form of education, which of them decreased it; and what are the similarities and differences in their opinion. In order to get to know their opinions, an online survey was conducted with students at the University of Manresa (Spain), and telephone interviews with students of the Warsaw University of Technology Business School. A comparative analysis of the obtained results was then performed to determine the similarities and differences in the satisfaction with e-learning between the Spanish and Polish students. The study shows that the main factors satisfying both groups of students are the possibility to use digital didactic materials, the quality of e-learning platforms, the organisation of e-learning, and the support provided by universities and lecturers. The most significant differences were visible in the perception of online classes, the formula for completing the course, and the didactic activities for students. The research results lead to the conclusion that despite the cultural differences and different teaching systems, the factors satisfying students with e-learning in the two countries were in fact quite similar.

Aim of study: This study analyses how business strategy has influenced the export performance of the Spanish wine industry. In recent decades, Spain has been among those countries that have significantly increased their wine exports. Area of study: We used data collected from a survey comprising 339 Spanish wine-making companies Material and methods: The empirical analysis was carried out by sending a survey and subsequent telephone call to all the independent wineries belonging to PDOs, the number of responses was 339, 14% of the sample. Using the Heckman methodology, we analysed the variables that determine the decision to export and the export intensity. Main results: Spanish firms have successfully used different combined strategies in order to achieve an intensification of exports. This implies that the joint use of strategies that seek efficiency (through cost reduction) while increasing value for the customer (through innovation and improved communication processes and distribution) achieve an increase in the internationalisation of the company. Therefore, the results of this study add new strategic alternatives to those traditionally proposed by the literature Research highlights: Firm strategy also has an effect on export performance in the Spanish wine industry. To grow in international markets, companies can use a combination of different strategic options.

Purpose The purpose of this exploratory study is to examine the perceived resources, strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats from the perspective of micro and small brewery owners, managers and brewing masters operating in three countries. To this end, the study adopts the resource-based view (RBV) of the firm, complemented by a strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats analysis. Design/methodology/approach The research provides a mixed-methods approach. Data were collected from craft breweries in Italy, Spain and the UK. In all, 165 valid responses were obtained from an online questionnaire, and an additional 24 face-to-face and telephone interviews with craft brewing operators in these three countries were conducted to further enrich the data. Independent samples t-test and Scheffé post hoc were used to analyse part of the quantitative data, while content analysis and word association were used for the qualitative component. Findings Product quality and uniqueness of product emerged as important perceived resources and strengths, suggesting an alignment with some of the resource-related attributes postulated by the RBV, such as valuable, rare and (un)substitutable. Other elements, such as natural and sustainable resources, including water quality and the current and future involvement in growing or sourcing raw products locally emerged as key resources, and are suggested as additional attributes. These strategic and tangible resources are however challenged by perceived weaknesses, particularly lack of financial, infrastructure and commercialisation resources, as well as threats from competition. Originality/value The exploratory study focuses on craft brewing from the perspective of micro/small operators. This industry has received very limited attention from the literature. The use of the RBV, with the potential to increase understanding of an emerging industry, and develop the theory further in this domain, adds to the originality and value of this research.

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics
The document herein described, provides detailed information of the development of PME.BOX Business Plan regarding the expansion to a detailed overview of the business model and strategies that PME.BOX looks to implement in order to maximize its business reach and in turn generate revenue. PME.BOX (firm) is an IT start up firm based in Madan Par the commercial rights of pme.box (software). Pme.box is a touch management solution intended to help small and medium enterprises (SMEs) in their day day business. It is a software provided under Software as a Service (SaaS). The value proposition of PME.BOX innovative, efficient, sustainable and affordable solutions to their customers. PME.BOX has an important social contribution, given that it provides free software for micro-enterprises and SMEs, to higher levels. Although SMEs represent a dynamic and important role on struggle for “survival” in a high global competitive context. The impending crisis has also affected SMEs severely, with a large number going into bankruptcy. This represents a huge opportunity to such affordable software as pme.box, pr reducing their operational fixed costs, transform those into variable importance of economies of scale for those SMEs. PME.BOX wants to grow fast and on a global scale in order to take advantage of the time market. It is looking for partnerships with available financial means and local market expertise to deal with local demands and local business expansion. Inside this objective, Spain seems to be a very attractive market to the PME.BOX business model.

The study seeks to characterise management in Spain in general. It seeks to explain, within a social cultural framework, how management in Spain differs in values and structure from that in the United Kingdom. The basis of the study is empirical evidence largely derived from interviews with managers practising in Spain. The study concludes that there are underlying similarities in management values across regions and' industries in Spain that are different from those prevalent in Britain. Of special interest are the prioritisation of human individual values, the nature of the authority structure and the principal methods of communication which managers choose to employ.

Globalization abates barriers and makes the world similar, but also leads countries to perform like companies seeking and competing for global capitals. In this competition the „nation brand‟ becomes a critical tool to stand out and attract any sort of foreign investments. In this research, the factors which affect the nation brand, presented in the Anholt´s hexagon model, will be tested through the combination of theory on nation branding and empirical data. The study analyzes how different organizations affect and promote the commercial image of Spain in Sweden. Up to seven entities susceptible to affect the brand Spain were analyzed; the ICEX, the economic and commercial office of Spain in Stockholm, the embassy of Spain in Stockholm, Invest in Spain, the Elcano Royal institute, the Hispanic-Swedish chamber of commerce in Madrid and the Swedish trade council in Madrid. The study also presents an outline of the current context of the brand Spain and its projection in Sweden, as well as an overview on the trade relationship between both countries. The individual commitment of most of the organizations investigated, under the guidance of the Ministry of foreign affairs and the Ministry of industry, tourism, and trade of Spain, appears as one of the main findings. Despite the limited scope of this investigation, the relative novelty of this field of study leaves room for further research in different directions, questioning those who claim that globalization threats local diversity.

Background Expatriate failure can be a devastating consequence for both an enterprise and the expatriate himself. An expatriate is a person who resides outside his native country for working purposes. Moving to a foreign country implies many challenges and problems. One of the challenges is the new culture. Culture shock and problems with the acculturation process can jeopardize the international assignment: adaptation problem for expatriates is one of the reasons for expatriate failure. Nevertheless, culture shocks can be provided against by preparing the expatriate for the new culture. Knowledge about the other culture will increase the expatriate’s cultural competence, and hence facilitate the adaptation process, which will provide against expatriate failure. Purpose The thrust of this Bachelor Thesis was to analyze which important cultural differences a Swedish expatriate can encounter in Spain on an international assignment. The aim was to establish a check-list for future Swedish expatriates who are going to Spain, in order increase their cultural competence. We approached the cultural differences from a Swedish expatriate’s point of view. Methodology A qualitative study was conducted. The empirical data was collected through five semi-structured interviews with Swedish expatriates that are, or have been, working in Spain. All the interviewees work at companies who operate within the high-tech business trade. A frame of reference was elaborated in order to interpret and analyze the results obtained from the empirical data. Conclusions We found relevant cultural differences for Swedish expatriates going to Spain within four cultural aspects. Organization: organizations in Spain are more hierarchical and the manager more authoritarian compared to Sweden. The purpose of meetings is to inform or make decisions, rather than discuss and decide by consensus. Long working days are normal, and efficiency is not highly prioritized. Small talk before meetings is used more extensively than in Sweden. Time: Spaniards perceive time as fluid, which leads to less rigid agendas and schedules. Punctuality is a minor issue since time is approximate. Communication: The culture is expressive. Spaniards are emotional in their way of communicating, which is classified as an expressive culture. Moreover, frequent interruptions are seen as commitment to, and engagement in, the conversation. Indirect language is preferred over the direct, the context is more important than the words used. Social life: Spaniards prefer to meet up outside. The Spaniard’s private zone is bigger and includes more persons, compared to the Swede’s. Furthermore, respect is only shown people the Spaniard knows and cares about.

In the Valencian Community (Spain) there are 5 health districts managed by public-private partnerships. They are the so-called Alzira model, where the concessionaire builds and maintains the hospital facilities and provides health care services. The purpose of this paper is to address problems raised in the calculation of the limiting clause of profitability and to develop a financial statement analysis in order to assess profitability, solvency and liquidity. Results indicate that all concessionaires show very high debt-to-assets ratio, low liquidity, ROA fluctuates between 2.45% and 12.42%, and the IRR varies between 3.47% and 13.15%. Despite this, four of five concessionaries exceed the limiting clause using an “ad hoc” method as proxy of “cash flows”.

This article aims to describe the analitycal framework in which it will be analyzed whether the cultural policies of Germany and Spain are moving towards knowledge and innovation, and how these policies affect the economic development of their countries. The methodology that we will apply will be the Qualitative Comparative Analysis; the data that we will use will be taken from the Compendium of Public Policies and Trends. We have decided to analyze Germany and Spain cases because they have the following requirements: Being a member of the OECD, member of the Compendium of Cultural Policies and Trends. In addition, Germany has been chosen for being a benchmark in terms of economic development. This research is important because cultural and creative industries, as well as public policies on them, have evolved in recent years, and new trends in research on cultural policies are moving towards the concepts of knowledge and innovation. The European Innovation Scoreboard 2021 affirms the relationship between the most innovative countries and the economic development of these countries. Therefore, the objective of this research is to analyze whether the cultural policies of Germany and Spain are moving towards knowledge and innovation, and how these policies affect the economic development of their countries.

The purpose of this piece of research is to analize public instruments implemented to promote innovation in Spain and the results that were obtained among Spanish innovative companies. Along this paper, the National Innovation Strategy for Science, Technology and Innovation 2013-2020, and its impact, prior to the implementation of the next plan that will cover the period 2021-2027, have been analysed. This piece of research sheds light on the main weaknesses identified in the National Innovation Strategy for Science, Technology and Innovation 2021-2027, and particularly how and where it fails in boosting innovation in Spain. The main conclusions are useful for all involved parts, politicians as part of the public sector (Government), industry and academia as fundamental pillar of the Spanish innovation system.

Purpose – this article presents empirical evidence of the creation of clusters of value that emerge when creativity, innovation, and entrepreneurship are developed together. These clusters contribute to welfare creation and, to the reduction of youth unemployment. Research methodology – this paper aims to conduct an exploratory qualitative research study through multiple case studies. Findings – findings show the relevance of emotions in social initiatives, the role of teams and experts that recognizes innovations, the relevance of stakeholders wealth to motivate employees and the importance of linking the day-to-day challenges to local apprenticeship programs, as creativity is closely related to these daily lives and everyday concerns. Research limitations – this research paper has some limitations because multiple cases studies not allow for generalizations. An extension of this study encompassing a greater number of case studies could confirm findings. Practical implications – this article describes the role of future entrepreneurs and can be applied in the identification of entrepreneurs’ skills and characteristics. Originality/Value – it is related to how to support entrepreneurs, taking into account the role of key actors, their teams, their local situation, and their intentions. Emotions were essential in the cases presented, and, even more, for the professionals that joined the initiatives

A nationally representative telephone survey on the consequences of the coronavirus pandemic in Suriname was conducted during the month of August in 2020. This paper presents a summary of the main findings of that survey and a review of the pandemic as of mid-April 2021. We found that household income was affected through employment losses, business closures and reduction of remittances. With data from the 2016/17 Suriname Survey of Living Conditions (SSLC) an additional level of analysis found that, although the shock to household income was widespread, pre-existing inequalities across income and gender groups were exacerbated.

Under the Food Hygiene Rating Scheme (FHRS), places where food is supplied, sold or consumed are given a rating ranging from 0 to 5, with 5 indicating ‘very good’ food hygiene and 0 indicating ‘urgent improvement necessary’. In Northern Ireland and Wales, businesses are legally required to display their food hygiene rating sticker in a prominent place like the front door, entrance or window of the business. Businesses in England do not have to display their rating at their premises but are encouraged to do so. Across England, Northern Ireland and Wales, food hygiene ratings are also available to search on the FSA website. The Food Standards Agency (FSA) has conducted research into the Display of Food Hygiene Ratings in England, Northern Ireland and Wales since 2011, although the research was paused in 2020 due to COVID-19 pandemic. In 2021, the FSA commissioned IFF Research to update the research with the following aims: Provide a representative estimate of the display of food hygiene ratings by food businesses Explore the reasons and drivers for display and non-display Explore business awareness and attitudes towards the scheme Fieldwork in November and December 2021 comprised 1,522 covert audits of food businesses in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland and 1,500 telephone interviews of food businesses.

A study was performed by the Energy Branch of the US Army Engineer Research and Development Center, Construction Engineering Research Laboratory, on behalf of the US Army Installation Management Command under the Installation Technology Transition Program. The focus of the study was related to maintainability and operability issues associated with High Performance Sustainable Buildings (HPSBs). This study was conducted primarily based on information gleaned from telephone and web conference discussions with installation Directorate of Public Works personnel including Operation and Maintenance (O&M) Chiefs, energy managers, maintenance supervisors, and maintenance technicians. Experiences with HPSBs varied from installation to installation. For example, some installations had very positive experiences with photovoltaic (PV) arrays while other sites questioned their practicality due to maintainability problems. One site noted that PV technologies are changing so rapidly that procuring spare/repair parts becomes difficult or impossible when vendors discontinue supporting their older technologies or manufacturers go out of business. Based on discussions with the installation O&M personnel, a table of pro and con recommendations for 25 technologies, which are commonly implemented on HPSBs, was prepared and is included in this report.

Over the last two years, the Esade Center for Social Impact, which is part of Esade Business School in Spain, and its partner BBK, a banking foundation in Bilbao, have been at the center of a web of committed European foundation professionals sharing their thoughts, learnings, practices, frustrations, and eureka moments related to impact measurement and management (IMM). This paper is not a practical guide to Impact Measurement and Management (IMM) – we believe that there are other publications which may help with implementation. Rather, it recounts how foundations at different stages of development and with a range of profiles (corporate, family, operating, and grant-making) are going about IMM on a day-to-day basis and grappling with some of the challenges and philosophical issues arising. For the impact geeks, this will no doubt be interesting grist for the mill. For those not so deep into this space, it might provide an overview of where foundations are in Europe and how they are focusing their efforts on IMM. Our aim is that by synthesizing and sharing what we have heard in this safe space we can inform and inspire others.

Recent books and articles have analyzed the causes of the global financial and economic crisis of 2007-09. Yet little attention has been paid to the quality of leadership in organizations that were at the epicentre of the storm, were victims of it, avoided it or even prospered from it. In the summer of 2009 a multi-disciplinary group of Ivey faculty decided to look at the leadership dimensions of the recent financial and economic crisis. We started by writing a working paper that laid out our preliminary views. We then engaged more than 300 business, public sector and not-for-profit leaders in small and large groups, as individuals and collectives, to get their reaction to this paper and, more generally, to discuss te role that organizational leadership played before, during and after the crisis. We examined leadership not just in the financial sector but also in many other public and private sector organizations that were affected by the crisis. In a sense, we were putting leadership on trial. Our aim in doing this was not to identify and assign blame. Rather, we examined leadership during this critical period in recent history to learn what we could, and use the learning to improve practice in leadership today and the development of next generation leaders. As we analyzed the role of leadership in this crisis we were faced with one major question: "Would better leadership have made a difference?" Our answer is unequivocal: "Yes!" We recognize that many people could argue it is unfair to criticize leaders whose decisions were based on their knowledge of the situation at the time and which only eventually, with the aid of 20/20 hindsight proved bad. We respect this view but we disagree with it. Some business and public sector leaders predicted better than others the bursting of the housing bubble and financial markets turmoil, positioned their organizations to avoid problems, and coped with them skillfully. Their organizations were not badly damaged by the crisis and some even prospered. Some governments and regulatory agencies' control and monitoring systems were superior to those in the U.S., the U.K., Ireland, Spain, Iceland and other countries that had to bail out their banks and other industries. Our evidence supports the conclusion that these companies, these agencies, these governments and these countries had better leadership. Good leadership mattered then and good leadership will matter in the future. We are presenting our conclusions about what good leadership involves in the form of a public statement of principles - a manifesto that addresses what good leaders do, who they are, and how they can be developed in organizations.

Public procurement of goods and services contributes to about 15% of global greenhouse gas emissions. In the EU, public purchasing represents 15% of its GDP, acting as a major influencer on the market through the products and services acquired by governments from the local to national levels. The public sector has a role to play in leveraging this purchasing power to achieve the best societal value for money, particularly as we scramble to bend the curve of our planet’s warming. Globally, the construction and transport sectors each represent about 12% of government procurements’ GHG emissions. Furthermore, these sectors’ decarbonization efforts demand profound and disruptive technological shifts. Hence, prioritizing these sectors can make the greatest impact towards reducing the environmental footprint of the public sector and support faster decarbonization of key emitting industries. Meanwhile, the EU committed to achieving 55% reduction in GHG emissions by 2030 compared to 1990 levels. Drastic emissions reductions are needed at an unprecedented speed and scale to achieve this goal. Green Public Procurement (GPP) is the practice of purchasing goods and services using environmental requirements, with the aim of cutting carbon emissions and mitigating environmental harm throughout the life cycle of the product or service. While the EU and many of its Member States alike have recognized GPP as an important tool to meet climate goals, the formalization of GPP requirements at the EU level or among local and national governments has been fragmented. We call for harmonization to achieve the consistency, scale and focus required to make GPP practices a powerful decarbonization tool. We surveyed the landscape of GPP in the EU, with a focus on construction and road transport. Through interviews and policy research, we compiled case studies of eight Member States with different profiles: Sweden, the Netherlands, France, Germany, Estonia, Poland, Spain and Italy. We used this information to identify solutions and best practices, and to set forth recommendations on how the EU and its countries can harmonize and strengthen their GPP policies on the path toward cutting their contributions to climate change. What we found was a scattered approach to GPP across the board, with few binding requirements, little oversight and scant connective tissue from national to local practices or across different Member States, making it difficult to evaluate progress or compare practices. Interviewees, including policy makers, procurement experts and procurement officers from the featured Member States, highlighted the lack of time or resources to adopt progressive GPP practices, with no real incentive to pursue it. Furthermore, we found a need for more awareness and clear guidance on how to leverage GPP for impactful societal outcomes. Doing so requires better harmonized processes, data, and ways to track the impact and progress achieved. That is not to say it is entirely neglected. Most Member States studied highlight GPP in various national plans and have set targets accordingly. Countries, regions, and cities such as the Netherlands, Catalonia and Berlin serve as beacons of GPP with robust goals and higher ambition. They lead the way in showing how GPP can help mitigate climate change. For example, the Netherlands is one of the few countries that monitors the effects of GPP, and showed that public procurement for eight product groups in 2015 and 2016 led to at least 4.9 metric tons of avoided GHG emissions. Similarly, a monitoring report from 2017 showed that the State of Berlin managed to cut its GHG emissions by 47% through GPP in 15 product groups. Spain’s Catalonia region set a goal of 50% of procurements using GPP by 2025, an all-electric in public vehicle fleet and 100% renewable energy powering public buildings by 2030. Drawing from these findings, we developed recommendations on how to bolster GPP and scale it to its full potential. In governance, policies, monitoring, implementation and uptake, some common themes exist. The need for: • Better-coordinated policies • Common metrics for measuring progress and evaluating tenders • Increased resources such as time, funding and support mechanisms • Greater collaboration and knowledge exchange among procurers and businesses • Clearer incentives, binding requirements and enforcement mechanisms, covering operational and embedded emissions With a concerted and unified movement toward GPP, the EU and its Member States can send strong market signals to the companies that depend on them for business, accelerating the decarbonization process that our planet requires.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.