Thèses sur le sujet « Target marketing – Econometric models »

This dissertation considers organizational problems of market entry. The research follows the experimental path. Game theoretic models are combined with laboratory experiments to produce a set of empirical findings. Two market entry problems are studied. The first considers the chain store paradox developed by Selten (1978). This game considers an established chain store with locations in numerous towns. In each of these towns a different competitor decides whether to enter and compete with the chain store. When entry occurs, the chain store can respond cooperatively or aggressively. The game proceeds sequentially, the players are not symmetric, and the critical solution concept is the subgame perfect equilibrium. Three experiments are conducted for a total of 550 trials of the game. Experiments differ in the size of payoffs, the number of entrants, the anonymity of the chain store, and whether subjects play in both the role of the chain store and an entrant or in just one role. There is qualified support for the game theoretic prediction that a chain store cannot deter the sequential entry of competitors. Entry occurred on 459 of 550 trials; while some chain stores pursue deterrence, it largely is not effective in these specific experimental environments. It is suggested that deterrence might be effective if the number of entrants or payoffs are increased. The results have implications for discussions on predatory pricing, reputation, and the value of backwards induction as a solution concept. The second market entry problem is based on a simultaneous market entry game developed by Rapoport (1994). In this game symmetric players decide simultaneously whether to enter a market with a specified capacity. The game theoretic prediction for the number of entrants is based on a Nash equilibrium (in pure or mixed strategies). Again, experimental results support game theoretic predictions. Across three experiments the correlation between the number of entrants and the size of the market capacity is consistently above 0.90. Taken together, these experiments on market entry problems provide strong support for the conceptual use of game theory and the methodological use of controlled laboratory experiments in the field of strategic management.

The effects of the March 1990 deregulation policy on the marketing of agricultural products are examined in terms of price levels, price variability and market integration for maize, tef, noug and sorghum for the Bako, Tibe and Shoboka markets of the Wollega and Shoa regions of Ethiopia. Weekly price data from 1986 to 1993 are used. The price level and price variability changes are tested using a T-test and F-test respectively while market integration is tested using traditional price correlation analysis and Granger's and Johansen's methods of cointegration analysis. Deregulation has resulted in an increase in real prices which has also, in most cases, been accompanied by an increase in price variability. The price correlation and Granger methods indicate improvement in market integration under deregulation while Johansen's method indicates similar levels of market integration for both regulated and deregulated marketing systems. Increased price variability might thwart the perceived benefits of deregulation and further research is needed to identify its causes and to provide appropriate policy recommendations.

To date, the collection of comprehensive household travel data has been a challenge for most metropolitan planning organizations (MPOs) and state departments of transportation (DOTs) due mainly to high costs. Urban population growth, the expansion of metropolitan regions, and the general unwillingness of the public to complete surveys conflict with limited public funds. The purpose of this research is to leverage targeted marketing data, sometimes referred to as consumer data or just simply marketing data, for travel demand modeling applications. This research reveals a first step in exploring the use of targeted marketing data for representing population characteristics of a region. Four studies were completed: an aggregate validation, a household-level validation for hard-to-reach population groups, an airport passenger model, and a residential location choice model. The two validation studies of this work suggest that targeted marketing data are similar to U.S. Census data at small geographic levels for basic demographic and socioeconomic information. The studies also suggest that the existing coverage errors are at least similar, if not lower than, the levels of those in household travel surveys used today to build travel demand models. The two application studies of this work highlight the benefits of the targeted marketing data over traditional household travel surveys and U.S. Census data particularly well, including the additional behavioral information available at the household-level and the very large sample sizes. These results suggest that the combination of targeted marketing data with other third-party and non-traditional data could be particularly powerful. It offers tremendous opportunities to enhance, or even transform, existing travel demand modeling systems and data collection practices. Inexpensive, up-to-date, and detailed data would allow researchers and decision-makers alike to better understand travel behavior and to be more equipped to make important transportation-related decisions that affect our lives each day.

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Increasing competition caused by globalization, high growth of some emerging markets and stagnation of developed economies motivate Consumer Packaged Goods (CPGs) manufacturers to drive their attention to emerging markets. These companies are expected to adapt their marketing activities to the particularities of these markets in order to succeed. In a country classified as emerging market, regions are not alike and some contrasts can be identified. In addition, divergences of marketing variables effect can also be observed in the different retail formats. The retail formats in emerging markets can be segregated in chain self-service and traditional full-service. Thus, understanding the effectiveness of marketing mix not only in country aggregated level data can be an important contribution. Inasmuch as companies aim to generate profits from emerging markets, price is an important marketing variable in the process of creating competitive advantage. Along with price, promotional variables such as in-store displays and price cut are often viewed as temporary incentives to increase short-term sales. Managers defend the usage of promotions as being the most reliable and fastest manner to increase sales and then short-term profits. However, some authors alert about sales promotions disadvantages; mainly in the long-term. This study investigates the effect of price and in-store promotions on sales volume in different regions within an emerging market. The database used is at SKU level for juice, being segregated in the Brazilian northeast and southeast regions and corresponding to the period from January 2011 to January 2013. The methodological approach is descriptive quantitative involving validation tests, application of multivariate and temporal series analysis method. The Vector-Autoregressive (VAR) model was used to perform the analysis. Results suggest similar price sensitivity in the northeast and southeast region and greater in-store promotion sensitivity in the northeast. Price reductions show negative results in the long-term (persistent sales in six months) and in-store promotion, positive results. In-store promotion shows no significant influence on sales in chain self-service stores while price demonstrates no relevant impact on sales in traditional full-service stores. Hence, this study contributes to the business environment for companies wishing to manage price and sales promotions for consumer brands in regions with different features within an emerging market. As a theoretical contribution, this study fills an academic gap providing a dedicated price and sales promotion study to contrast regions in an emerging market.
O aumento da competição causada pela globalização, alto crescimento dos mercados emergentes e a estagnação dos mercados em países desenvolvidos levaram empresas de Consumer Packaged Goods (CPG) a direcionar sua atenção aos mercados emergentes. Estas empresas devem adaptar suas atividades de marketing as particularidades destes mercados para obter sucesso. Em um país classificado como emergente, diferentes regiões possuem distintas características. Adicionalmente, divergências no efeito das variáveis de marketing também podem ser observadas nos diferentes formatos de varejo. Os formatos de varejo em um mercado emergente podem ser classificados em autosserviço (chain self-service) e tradicional de serviço (traditional full-service). Desta forma, entender a eficácia do marketing mix não apenas no nível agregado de país pode ser uma contribuição importante. Na medida em que as empresas visam gerar lucros em mercados emergentes, o preço é uma importante variável de marketing no processo de criação de uma vantagem competitiva. Junto com o preço, variáveis de promoção como displays nas lojas e redução de preços são muitas vezes vistos como incentivos temporários para aumentar as vendas no curto prazo. Executivos defendem o uso de promoções como sendo a maneira mais confiável e mais rápida de aumentar vendas e o lucro no curto prazo. No entanto, alguns autores alertam sobre as desvantagens de promoção de vendas; principalmente, no longo prazo. Este estudo investiga o efeito de preço e promoção em lojas no volume de vendas em diferentes regiões dentro de um mercado emergente. A base de dados utilizada esta no nível SKU para o suco, sendo segregada nas regiões do sudeste e nordeste brasileiro, correspondendo ao período entre janeiro de 2011 a janeiro de 2013. A abordagem metodológica de validação é quantitativa descritiva, sendo aplicado um método de análise de séries multivariadas e temporais. O modelo de vetor autorregressivo (VAR) foi utilizado para realizar a análise. Os resultados sugerem uma sensibilidade de preço semelhante na região do nordeste e do sudeste e maior sensibilidade de promoção em lojas no nordeste. Reduções de preço mostram resultados negativos no longo prazo (persistência do volume de vendas em seis meses) enquanto promoção em lojas teve resultados positivos. Promoção em lojas não mostra influência significativa sobre as vendas em lojas de autosserviço, por outro lado, preço demonstra não ter impacto relevante sobre as vendas em lojas tradicionais de serviço. Assim, este estudo contribui ao cenário executivo para empresas que almejam aperfeiçoar a promoções de vendas e precificação de suas marcas em regiões com diferentes características dentro de um mercado emergente. Como contribuição teórica, este estudo preenche uma lacuna acadêmica fornecendo um estudo de preço e promoção de vendas dedicado ao contraste de regiões em um mercado emergente.

Šio darbo tikslas – išnagrinėti veiksnius, darančius įtaką alternatyvios energetikos plėtros efektyvumui Lietuvoje ir sukurti modelį šiai problemai spręsti, remiantis atliktais ekonometriniais ir realaus projekto skaičiavimais. Pagrindinės sprendžiamos problemos yra susijusios su silpnais bendradarbiavimo ryšiais tarp politikos, verslo ir mokslo sričių. Neefektyvus finansavimas energetinių projektų, neracionalus piliečių motyvavimas dėl alternatyvios energijos (AE) privalumų ir ilgas atsipirkimo laikas, suteikia neekonomiško verslo „šešėlį“. Viena iš svarbiausių darbo dalių yra realaus energetinio projekto parengimas. Atlikus tyrimą nustatyta, kad norint gyvenamajam namui įrengti vėjo jėgainę, bei šilumos siurblį, reikia 181 000 Lt pradinių investicijų, o diskontuotas projekto atsipirkimo laikas sudarytų beveik 18 metų. Kad tokie projektai atsipirktų daug anksčiau ir pradinės investicijos būtų mažesnės, buvo parengtas alternatyvios energetikos (toliau – AE) plėtros efektyvumo modelis, kuris akcentuoja verslo, mokslo ir politikos sinergijos būtinumą. Darbo apimtis – 74 p. teksto be priedų, 39 iliustr., 23 lent., 70 literatūros šaltinių. Atskirai pridedami darbo priedai.
This work main point – explore alternative energy developmental efficiency influencing forces in Lithuania, and make a model, to solve this problem, with reference, econometric and real project counts. The main solving problems are associated with week relationship between policy, business and science. Non effective sponsorship of energetic projects, non rational motivation of citizens in AE advantages, and long payback, gives non economical business „shadow“. The one of most important part of this work is preparation of energetic project. The main results maintaining that, if we want put a wind mill and thermal pump in individual house, we need at least 181 000 Lt, start – up investments and discounted payback will be reached about 18 years. That projects, like this will be payback earlier and start – up investment will be smaller was prepared alternative energy developmental model, witch emphasizes business, science and policy synergy necessity. Thesis consist of: 74 p. text without appendixes, 39 pictures, 23 tables, 70 bibliographical entries. Appendixes included.

Thesis (D.Phil.(Agricultural Economics, Extension, and Rural Development))--University of Pretoria, 2006.
Includes summary. Includes bibliographical references. Available on the Internet via the World Wide Web.

[Truncated abstract] The core objective of this thesis is summarised by its title: “Understanding the World Wool Market: Trade, Productivity and Grower Incomes”. Thus, we wish to aid understanding of the economic mechanisms by which the world wool market operates. In doing so, we analyse two issues trade and productivity and their effect on, inter alia, grower incomes. To achieve the objective, we develop a novel analytical framework, or model. The model combines two long and rich modelling traditions: the partial-equilibrium commodity-specific approach and the computable-general-equilibrium approach. The result is a model that represents the world wool market in detail, tracking the production of greasy wool through five off-farm production stages ending in the production of wool garments. Capturing the multistage nature of the wool production system is a key pillar in this part of the model . . . The estimated welfare gain for China is 0.1% of real income; this is a significant welfare gain. For three losing regions Italy, Germany and Japan the results are robust and we can be highly confident that these regions are the largest losers from the complete removal of 2005 wool tariffs. In both wool tariff liberalisation scenarios, regions whose exports are skewed towards wool textiles and garments gain the most as it is these wool products that have the highest initial tariff rates. The overall finding of this work is that a sophisticated analytical framework is necessary for analysing productivity and trade issues in the world wool market. Only a model of this kind can appropriately handle the degree of complexity of interactions between members (domestic and foreign) of the multistage wool production system. Further, including the nonwool economy in the analytical framework allows us to capture the indirect effects of changes in the world wool market and also the effects on the nonwool economy itself.

Prior research has shown that both lead users and opinion leaders may propel the diffusion of innovation. This raises the question of whether lead users and opinion leaders are positioned similarly in social networks, which we address using a sample of 23 school classes consisting of 537 children. Research among children is very scarce in this particular domain. Our statistical analyses based on hierarchical linear modeling reveal two general results: first, lead users among children appear to possess a variety of links between clusters; second, opinion leaders are locally positioned within clusters of children and have many direct links. (authors' abstract)

Defence date: 15 September 1995
Examining board: Prof. Michael Artis, E.U.I. ; Prof. Fabio Canova, Università di Catania ; Prof. Andrew Hughes Hallett, Heriott-Watt University ; Prof. Mark Salmon, E.U.I., Supervisor ; Prof. José Viñals, Banco de España
First made available online: 26 August 2016

This dissertation explores the intricacies associated with the use of distance functions in empirical studies. It focuses on the measurement of advertising efficiency and investigates the properties of the models that seek to approximate the abatement costs of socially undesirable outputs. The first manuscript is devoted to the development of the algorithm that can be used to measure the efficiency with which firms market their brands in the presence of advertising by rivals. An empirical illustration is carried out using the data from the U.S. brewing industry. The second study analyzes the difficulties associated with the accurate approximation of the abatement costs of socially undesirable outputs. It contrasts the results from a variety of different shadow-pricing models, each of which relies on a different type of distance functions that are used to approximate the polluting technology. The shadow prices of sulfur dioxide are computed using linear programming techniques and the data from the U.S. electric utility industry. The third manuscript shows how a generalized method of moments (GMM) algorithm can be used to estimate the parameters of certain types of distance functions; the empirical illustration is carried out using the data set from the second study. The first manuscript illustrates that advertising spillovers are important in brewing and shows that the estimates of marketing efficiency are inaccurate when spillover effects are present and ignored. The second study shows that the shadow price estimates of socially undesirable outputs are not invariant to the assumptions regarding the parametric form of production technology and can in fact be predetermined by selecting a specific model. Finally, the third study established the legitimacy of the GMM procedure as a choice of an algorithm for the shadow pricing of undesirable outputs.
Graduation date: 2005

本文探讨了国家制度环境对出口企业以及出口企业动态的影响。目前关于制度对贸易总值影响的研究已引起了越来越多的关注。然而，关于制度环境对贸易动态影响的研究是非常有限的。所有现有的研究都是基于对某一国家的分析。本文采用世界银行出口企业动态数据库，该数据库包含45个出口国以及200多个进口国的多国面板数据。研究表明，有效的制度环境会增加两国间的出口企业的数量以及出口企业的存活率。良好的制度环境会减少双方违反合同的可能性同时减少对合同执行以及经济法律体制的不确定性。其次，研究表明,与出口国不同，进口国的制度环境对出口企业的平均出口值有负面的影响。进口国有效的制度环境吸引了一些边际生产者进入出口市场，从而降低了整体企业出口的平均值。最后，本文发现制度环境的提升会减少出口企业的市场进入率。有效的制度环境会提高出口市场的稳定性，减少市场内部的流动率。
This paper studies the effect of institutional quality on exporter behavior and export dynamics. There is a growing interest in the study on the effect of institutions on aggregate trade volume in the recent literature. However, the analysis of institutional effect on the dynamics of trade is relatively limited. Besides, all the existing studies that analyze the dynamic effect of institutions are based on exporting firms in a single country. We use the Exporter Dynamics Database from World Bank that contains rich panel of cross-country data involving 45 exporting countries and more than 200 importing countries in the world. First, we find that there are more exporting firms and the survival rate of the exporting firms is higher in better institutional environment. The good contracting environment makes the breach of the contract more difficult and reduces the uncertainty about contract enforcement and general economic legal system. Secondly, we show that institutions in the importing country have a negative effect on average export value, which is different from the exporting country. The effective institutions in the importing country attract some marginal producers in the export market which reduces the average export value per firm. Finally, entry rate of the exporting firms reduces with the quality of the country’s institutions. The good institutional environment increases market stability and reduces the turnover rate in the export market.
Detailed summary in vernacular field only.
Liu, Xiaojie.
Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2013.
Includes bibliographical references (leaves 59-63).
Electronic reproduction. Hong Kong : Chinese University of Hong Kong, [2012] System requirements: Adobe Acrobat Reader. Available via World Wide Web.
Abstracts also in Chinese.
Chapter 1. --- Introduction --- p.5
Chapter 1. --- Related Literature --- p.8
Chapter 2. --- Data Analysis --- p.12
Chapter 3. --- Empirical Analysis --- p.17
Chapter 4. --- Discussion of the Results --- p.20
Chapter 5.1 --- Extensive Margin --- p.21
Chapter 5.2 --- Intensive Margin --- p.23
Chapter 5.3 --- Entry Rate --- p.24
Chapter 5.4 --- Survival Rate --- p.26
Chapter 5. --- Econometric Issues --- p.29
Chapter 6.1 --- Omitted Variable Bias --- p.29
Chapter 6.2 --- Endogeneity --- p.30
Chapter 7. --- Sensitivity Analysis and Robustness Checks --- p.32
Chapter 7.1 --- Sensitivity to Alternative Samples --- p.32
Chapter 7.2 --- Using Alternative Measures of Institutional Quality --- p.33
Chapter 8. --- Conclusion --- p.35
Tablesand Figures --- p.38
References --- p.59

Defence date: 17 December 1990
Examining board: Prof. Alexis Jacquemin, Université Catholique de Louvain and Commission of the European Communities, Brussels ; Prof. Daniel Jones, Cardiff Business School ; Prof. Neil Kay, University of Strathclyde ; Prof. Stephen Martin, thesis supervisor, European University Institute, Flroence ; Prof. Joachim Schwalbach, Freie Univeristät Berlin
PDF of thesis uploaded from the Library digitised archive of EUI PhD theses completed between 2013 and 2017

The objective of this study was to evaluate the effect of commodity promotion activities on the United States' hazelnut farmer's economic welfare. Commodity promotion activities, such as generic advertising and research, are the responsibilities of government mandated commodity commissions, such as the Hazelnut Marketing Board (HMB). The HMB is a state mandated cartel, organized under the Agricultural Marketing Agreement Act of 1937 (i.e. the Marketing Order) and amended in 1981, 1986, and 1989 (7 CFR Part 982, FR Doc. 81-14045 FR Doc. 86-18438, FR Doc. 89-26187). HMB promotion activities are funded by taxes levied on U.S. hazelnut farmers. To ensure that promotion provides a net benefit to these farmers this research uses Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) of the assessments under various assumptions about the market's conditions. A non-linear system of equations (SEM) with Monte Carlo simulation was utilized to produce these estimates.
Graduation date: 2013

Direct response advertising in the financial services industry in South Africa has become one of the most important tactics companies utilise to build and maintain market share. Ensuring that these advertising campaigns yield optimal return on investment numbers is the responsibility of marketing departments and their partners in the marketing and sales processes, such as the creative and media agencies, the distribution force, as well as the client service area that supports the client value proposition. The marketing executive therefore is accountable for the planning, budgeting and execution of direct response campaigns, which need to deliver sufficient results to support the company’s overall business objectives. The challenge all marketers face is the lack of a proven structured and scientific methodology to facilitate this planning, budgeting and execution process. It has always been a general view in the marketing fraternity that it is extremely difficult if not impossible to combine creative output measures, which are subjective in nature, with cost, sales and profit measures, which are objective in nature. This study aims to create a structured approach to marketing strategising and planning, by creating a marketing metrics model that enables the marketing practitioner to budget according to output needed to achieve the overarching business objectives of sales, cost management and profit. This marketing metrics model therefore unpacks the business drivers in detail, but through a marketing effort lense, to link the various factors underlying successful marketing output, to the bigger business objectives. This is done by incorporating both objective (verifiable data, such as cost per sale) and subjective variables (qualitative factors, such as creative quality) into a single model, which enables the marketing practitioner to identify areas of underperformance, which can then be managed, tweaked or discontinued in order to optimise marketing return on investment. Although many marketing metrics models and variables exist, there is a gap in the combination of objective and subjective factors in a single model, such as the proposed model, which will give the marketer a single tool to plan, analyse and manage the output in relation to pre-determined performance benchmarks.
Business Management
DCOM (Business Management)